李翔 × 李丰

美以伊目标缺乏交集，短期停火困难，战争已引发所有资产齐跌、仅美元上涨的极端risk off，并将市场推向滞胀交易。若伊朗政权被颠覆，中国将面临石油结算、能源定价与西部安全三重压力；未来5—10年能源多元化、生物制造和核能力重估值得跟踪。

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

The Hormuz shock showed that oil supply can be closed financially through insurance even when no tanker is attacked, while gamma-driven selling helped reverse a historic spike.Jonah sees $88 oil as mostly geopolitical premium against a potential glut and prefers expressions with limited negative convexity; the G7’s 400M cumulative SPR pledge and Iran’s unchanged China exports are key catalysts.

Gavin Baker × Ben Shapiro × Phil Deutch

GPT-5 was OpenAI’s first launch that failed to decisively beat rivals, with Grok 4 ahead on key benchmarks, though its router may simplify mainstream AI use.Hyperscaler returns and fully utilized GPUs support continued capex, but power, China’s manufacturing coordination, tariff uncertainty, housing costs, and Apple’s $700 billion buybacks remain critical allocation signals.

Chamath Palihapitiya × Jason Calacanis × David Sacks × David Friedberg

Congress’s removal of federal AI preemption leaves roughly 70 state laws and more than 1,000 proposed bills, potentially creating a compliance moat for incumbents and slowing startups.America’s power race is increasingly constrained by supply chains and permitting: gas turbines ordered today may wait until 2030, while new nuclear may arrive in 2032-33, making AI-driven growth dependent on capacity execution.

Chamath Palihapitiya × Jason Calacanis × David Sacks × David Friedberg

Trump’s targeted strikes and ceasefire reduced the feared forever-war risk, while oil rising only from roughly $60 to $74 suggested markets priced a less chaotic Middle East.Mamdani’s New York upset exposed an indebted, “negative capital” generation, and the panel linked his urban-socialist platform to student debt growing from $500 billion to $2 trillion.Stocks reached all-time highs amid a split between weakening breadth and possible liquidity-driven upside, while early FOXO3 cell-therapy results and AI copyright rulings leave major scientific and legal risks unresolved.

Andrew Walker × Ben Kelleran

Sable Offshore’s Santa Ynez restart is nearing a regulatory inflection point: its first platform is producing into the onshore facility, but commercial sales await State Fire Marshal certification amid litigation.Low decline, 80% fixed lifting costs, and potential 70,000-barrel-per-day output support Kelleran’s roughly $1.2 billion EBITDA estimate against $3–3.5 billion EV.Certification, the $800 million–$1 billion Exxon PIK refinancing, and roughly 14% short interest frame the catalysts and risks.

David Sacks × Larry Summers × Ezra Klein × Chamath Palihapitiya

The 90-day retreat left a 10% universal tariff, sectoral duties, fresh threats, and a 125% China tariff, preserving policy risk rather than restoring the old trade regime.Summers estimated roughly $6 trillion in erased equity value and warned tariffs could weaken purchasing power, demand, and confidence, while the debate set a two-year test of growth, resilience, and trade outcomes.

李翔 × 李丰

关税战的降逆差、补财政与孤立中国三项目标必须排序，对等关税公式显示降逆差居首，而低关税协议与对华加税要求可能彼此牵制。若中美走向协议，中国可放大的筹码主要是能源，但代价可能是以更高价格购买；若谈判失败，转口贸易会重分配环节毛利，制造业回流与全球供应链重构仍是长期风险。

Chamath Palihapitiya × Jason Calacanis × David Friedberg × David Sacks × Thomas Laffont

Trump’s opening week reset national strategy around energy, technology and private capital, with DOGE confronting agencies’ spending incentives and Stargate proposing $500 billion for AI infrastructure.The decisive tests are whether compute earns an adequate return, whether electricity and nuclear deployment can scale, and whether TikTok’s proposed ownership structure avoids government picking winners.