MARKET UPDATE: Live With GMoney, Inflation Is In, Is This The Crypto Top?
An in-line CPI print makes a next-meeting hike near-certain, but Avi says AI capex may mean the cycle will not last.Nvidia’s neocloud financing could become capital-light SaaS-like revenue after roughly two years of consolidation.Tokenized-stock pairings may create on-chain demand; Quotrons has roughly $10M market cap, and FWA depends on sustained top-of-funnel spins.
168X 战情室：投资TALK君，AI 软硬轮动、仓位管理与下一阶段 Alpha
AI仍在推进，芯片估值较高点下跌，软件财报首次显示AI开始变现，硬件交易可能受情绪驱动。Intel重回第一大仓位，foundry或转正；开源模型可能把定价权还给CSP，agent落地及SpaceX估值和Anthropic IPO流动性仍待观察。
MARKET UPDATE: Bitcoin Rally, Zcash ETF, Bessent Humbled, NVDA Earnings
Bitcoin’s 25% rally toward $80K reflects a shift from AI productivity to Treasury and Fed-driven debasement, after equity vol cooled and Bessent deployed capital to defend yields.Avi sees a reasonable chance of $95K-$100K within six weeks and substantial ZCAF flows, with $15.5M in day-one volume comparable to BSOL as a percentage of market cap.The key risk is that this remains an early-innings lockout rally rather than a new bull trend, while NVDA’s crowded short positioning creates a potential one-to-two-day rebound catalyst into earnings.
Who's Coming For The Market In Q3?
Avi sees the hyperscaler-to-memory melt-up becoming fully priced, prompting a rotation toward indexes and AI downstream beneficiaries such as ARKG and Reddit.Jonah still sees fundamental support in Micron at 7.5x forward earnings, while both debate dollar strength, Bitcoin’s 1-2 year outlook, and whether rising volatility demands smaller Intel positions.
SpaceX Over, Fed Meeting Done, What’s Next?
The one-hike dot plot kept summer fears around Iran, oil and the SpaceX IPO from materializing, supporting Intel, SanDisk and Micron through August–September.Mag 7 companies are selling equity and raising debt for data-center capex, favoring semiconductors.Robinhood’s assets rose 50% to roughly $400B despite crypto revenue falling 47%, while conflict risk remains unresolved.
Is The Soft Landing Officially Dead?
The next Fed meeting’s 5% tail flipped from a cut to a hike as PPI rose 1.4% MoM versus 0.5% expected and oil stayed above $100 with Hormuz closed.Avi moved to 30% cash targeting 50%, while Jonah trimmed 7%; memory remains a demand-driven bottleneck, but inflation and capital withdrawal from OpenAI and Anthropic are the risks to monitor.
市场概述2025年11月25日
市场正处于缺少政策与业绩催化剂的真空期，但AI需求旺盛、供给短缺，2026年更宽松的流动性可能吹起更大泡沫。通胀约束传统降息空间，就业恶化却迫使美联储优先支持增长，SLR松绑等替代工具或在2026年2月至4月释放流动性；回调仍可持续，但仓位结构暂不支持4月式深跌。
市场概述2025年11月18日
AI由已盈利的大型科技公司驱动，广告推荐已同时提升revenue和margin，讲者据此认为当前尚非巨大泡沫，但明年可能泡沫化。短期风险在关税、关门造成的货币与数据真空，NVIDIA业绩后催化剂不足；同时财政刺激、token需求和eSLR释放仍支撑“短空长多”框架。
Vol.190 宏观漫谈94｜如何看待中美关税谈判的新一轮博弈（10.17录制）
中美关税升级更像签约前的极限施压，双方围绕产业规模、科技升级与制造业利益重新争夺谈判框架。稀土components审查体现镜像反制，若巴以、俄乌与关税不确定性阶段性收敛，全球资金可能重新配置中国资产，但黄金由央行和配置资金转向居民接棒的风险需要监测。
市场概述2025年10月14日
ACA补贴让美国政府关门很可能拖长，但长端利率约4.2%，steepener尚未到“无脑”价位。Q3盈利增速预期仅约6%、大型科技capex增速仍超30%，AI链存在约5%的upside surprise空间。全球财政扩张的刹车更可能是通胀，OpenAI正式To C或上市则可能成为AI短期泡沫顶的验证节点。