An Unfiltered Conversation with Airmass
Airmass’s investable thesis is extreme concentration: “the secret to trading… is not to trade,” then wait for a globally entrenched business to become absurdly mispriced and hold it at size. He says buying Meta near $90 in 2022 with roughly 4.5x leverage, later perhaps 5x after adding, then exiting around $680, produced an estimated 30-35x return over three years. Thread Guy supplies the essential caveat: “You got to be right.”
His current all-in call is Micron, bought under $500, between roughly $450 and $470, before he publicly declared it “the next Nvidia”; Thread Guy says the stock subsequently rose about 50% in ten days. Airmass argues the frightening vertical chart masks a cheap business: roughly 400% revenue growth in a year, margins approaching 60%, demand perhaps twice available supply, five-year customer commitments, and—when he bought—a P/E near 5. “I have never seen a cheaper tech stock in my life.”
Airmass treats concentration as risk management rather than recklessness, because a diversified basket inevitably includes positions the investor understands less well. His analogy is operating one business or podcast rather than four: focus permits conviction and sizing, while a 5%-10% winner cannot rescue a portfolio full of mediocre ideas. The qualification is severe—only an asset “safe enough to go all in” qualifies, and leverage can still force liquidation during volatility.
His macro base case is not a bubble but an earnings-backed bull market amplified by currency debasement and accelerating technology. He expects the next correction to take the S&P down perhaps 15%-20%, followed by a massive pump; over the next two or three years he expects two relevant corrections. After further upside, he imagines Meta near $3,000 and Micron near $8,000, while Thread Guy floated a broader $5,000-$8,000 range.
Airmass then sketches a roughly 2030-era Nasdaq crash of 37%-45%, but calls such a rapid deleveraging “super bullish” rather than the start of systemic collapse. He expects comparisons with 1929, perhaps a few weeks near the bottom, then a market that “pump[s] like a missile.” His timing remains explicitly loose—perhaps four or five years out, “I don’t know.”
On Bitcoin, Airmass believes price creates narrative—not the reverse—and says today’s $80,000 level may look in ten years like $1 Bitcoin looked ten years earlier. If scarcity eventually pushes Bitcoin through $200,000, $300,000 and $400,000, he expects enthusiasm to follow automatically. He says he never sells his holdings, including Bitcoin bought from $1,000 through $120,000, and has no sale price because “Bitcoin is my currency.” He cannot form a confident view on Strategy’s complex financial engineering.
Bitcoin’s decisive value to Airmass is portable, seizure-resistant capital, especially for wealthy people exposed to frozen bank accounts or arbitrary legal action. He dismisses near-term quantum fears because the network could migrate to quantum-resistant mechanisms, considers Bitcoin sufficiently private with basic operational care, dislikes Zcash’s optional privacy, and finds Monero conceptually cleaner but says its supply cannot be fully verified. His closing advice tempers the bravado: developing market “gut feel” may take five years, so beginners should avoid borrowing $100,000 and blindly aping into a trade.
1. Six months away reinforced Airmass’s preference for doing less
After crossing oceans, jungles and mountains while barely looking at screens, Airmass returned and moved everything—including his Meta position—into Micron. He says he accumulated under $500, between roughly $450 and $470, then tweeted several days later as the stock accelerated; Thread Guy’s marked public-entry level was approximately $519.11.
Airmass softens his own romantic framing about returning with a clearer head: “I’m kind of always clear-headed.” The actual operating principle is simpler—“the secret to trading, right, is not to trade”—meaning that he prefers rare, oversized decisions to continuous activity.
Watching another guest research TikTok comments, visit stores and coordinate channel checks left Airmass anxious despite respecting the method. That approach may work brilliantly for its practitioner, he says, but being “glued to the screen” and watching five-minute candles is not required for comparable or better performance.
His standard is outcome rather than style: “It’s all about getting the ball in the hoop.” He presents passivity as an alternative suited to his temperament, not a universal refutation of active research, and points to publicly posted positions as the evidence by which listeners can judge it.
2. Meta became the proof case for concentrated, leveraged patience
Airmass says he built Meta near its 2022 bottom around $90, initially using approximately 4.5x leverage and adding as the stock climbed with few pullbacks. He held through a move to around $800 without selling, then exited around $680 after seeing Micron; using a simplified 4x assumption, he calculates roughly 30-35x over three years.
His deliberately provocative illustration turns $100,000 into about $3.5 million without daily trading. He argues most successful traders would struggle to match that result at size, even suggesting people can obtain the starting capital through credit or a business loan—a claim his later warning to beginners materially tempers.
The safety argument rests on Meta’s ubiquity, cash generation and durable products—Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp—not on chart behavior. The 2022 collapse reflected VR write-offs rather than destruction of the underlying franchise, he argues, making the same business that fund managers praised at $400-$500 unusually mispriced around $90.
Thread Guy’s pushback—“You got to be right”—is the hinge. Airmass concedes that excessive margin can let unforeseen volatility shake an investor out, but claims modest leverage around 2x left essentially no business-failure risk. His definition of “sure thing” is therefore a dominant company at a distressed valuation, not an absence of price swings.
3. Going all in is framed as focus, not daredevil risk
Airmass compares portfolio construction with entrepreneurship: Thread Guy runs one podcast, and Airmass formerly ran one business, because operating three unrelated ventures would dilute attention until all suffered. Why, he asks, should owning one exceptional public company be less acceptable when its management is better than the investor and has a proven track record?
His earlier diversification produced scattered ideas sourced from friends, neighbors and passing mentions. Without deep knowledge of each business, he was “throwing things at the wall to see what sticks”; inevitable losers overwhelmed winners that occupied only 5%-10% of the portfolio.
The resulting rule is demanding: understand one “incredible asset,” ensure it is mispriced enough to survive adverse scenarios, remove distractions, then size it so success matters. “It has to be safe enough to go all in”—a threshold that makes security selection, rather than diversification, carry nearly the entire risk-management burden.
Airmass distinguishes stocks from Bitcoin here. Businesses provide revenues, users, management and identifiable inflection points; Bitcoin is closer to pure supply and demand. He still expects Bitcoin “to infinity” because of its design, but says he cannot identify its key inflection points with the same precision.
4. Micron combines scarcity, margins and startup-like growth at scale
Asked how he reached such conviction at all-time highs, Airmass reverses the question: “How does someone not get there?” His claimed ingredients are roughly 400% revenue growth in a year, margins approaching 60%, and physical capacity sufficient for perhaps only half of demand—not factory failure or mismanagement.
Five-year customer agreements answer the standard cyclicality objection in his framework. Desperate buyers seeking allocation must commit to minimum purchases, he says, so “they have them by the balls for at least five years.” That contracted demand makes a six-month collapse in the cycle difficult for him to reconcile.
Valuation completes the call: Micron traded near 5x earnings about a month earlier, while Tesla’s P/E was above 200 by his estimate. Coca-Cola supplies the counterexample—enormously profitable but globally saturated, leaving perhaps 3% growth rather than the 20% or 40%-plus rates associated with high-growth technology.
Thread Guy asks why Airmass found it so late; the answer is simply that he had not been near a computer for six months. Airmass briefly wondered whether the numbers were fake because the opportunity looked impossible, then concluded Micron resembled Nvidia: a massive company growing “at the speed of a startup.”
5. A terrifying chart can coexist with a cheap business
Airmass readily admits Micron’s all-time chart resembles a classic blow-off top that could collapse 90%. Without business information, he too would ask, “Are you crazy?” That visual fear, combined with heavy leverage in both directions, could produce daily moves of $150 either way.
Temporary drawdowns would not alter his thesis because valuation, demand and profitability—not the chart—define safety. He challenges listeners to identify another advanced-technology company supplying a critical AI component, growing at comparable speed and margins, yet remaining this inexpensive: “There’s nothing else that comes close.”
The broader lesson is his rejection of efficient-market certainty. After Lehman failed in 2008, he says markets waited roughly three days before collapsing, giving investors time to position for a major short. He did not trade it, but uses the episode to argue that markets can take surprisingly long to digest information.
Thread Guy’s repeated observation that the chart is vertical preserves the central tension: momentum traders see precisely the setup that normally demands caution, while Airmass sees fundamental cheapness beneath apparent excess. He expects that mismatch to create violent volatility without invalidating the long-term position.
6. The bull-market map includes corrections and one major crash
Airmass attributes the secular rise partly to a “worthless” US dollar, illustrated by a $500 million Monaco apartment, a reported $600 million AI-company sale and soaring athlete pay. His intentionally abrasive benchmark is that $10 million now feels “almost like middle class,” rather than the lifetime fortune it represented decades ago.
He rejects comparisons with 1999 because Nvidia, Micron and other leaders are producing enormous profits rather than merely adding “.com” to unproven ideas. He allows that individual pockets are bubbly, but says the overall market is “not even close”; his projection is that Micron may earn around $100 billion in profit this year.
Rising valuations should make corrections sharper. He says the next correction could take the S&P 500 down 15%-20%; over the next two or three years he expects two relevant drawdowns. After the second, he imagines an extreme pump, with Meta perhaps reaching $3,000 and Micron perhaps reaching $8,000; Thread Guy suggested a broader Micron range of $5,000-$8,000.
Around 2030—though he repeatedly hedges the date—Airmass expects a COVID-style Nasdaq crash of approximately 37%-45%, widespread 1929 analogies and forced deleveraging. Unlike 2022’s slow burn, that rapid break would be “super bullish”: after perhaps weeks at the lows, he expects another rocket to new highs.
7. Singularity, not collapse, anchors the long-duration optimism
Thread Guy asks whether the trajectory ends in hyperinflation or economic collapse. Airmass rejects the premise: “Nothing is going to collapse.” Even 2008 did not feel catastrophic to him while he was busy operating his company, though he acknowledges many others struggled.
His baseline is that life keeps improving, bear markets are brief, and humanity is not crossing some final line into a 30-year decline. Relative to a century ago—when both men might have worked in coal mines—today’s quality of life supports his blunt conclusion: “Life is great. Everything’s great.”
Technology supplies the acceleration mechanism. Airmass says the last 100 years produced more progress than the previous 1,000 or 10,000 years, then imagines progress compressing from 100 years to ten, one, a month, a week and eventually a second; reality becomes “saturated with intelligence” faster than people can comprehend it.
Both speakers agree information has reached “escape velocity”: even three hours of daily market coverage cannot capture each week’s developments. With AI improving AI and computing capacity expanding exponentially, Airmass sees corrections and a crash as opportunities to go all-in on a continuing singularity-driven rise, not evidence that the thesis ended.
8. Bitcoin is currency, escape hatch and a five-year lesson in judgment
Airmass says future investors may view $80,000 Bitcoin as today’s investors view $1 Bitcoin. Narratives need not precede the move: just as gold became interesting only after rising from roughly $1,500 to $5,000, Bitcoin at $200,000, $300,000 or $400,000 would generate its own story. “The price itself drives the narrative.”
He rejects a fiat-denominated exit target because “Bitcoin is my currency.” He says he has never sold his personal holdings, including Bitcoin bought from $1,000 through $120,000; he buys and sells Bitcoin only when sending it to someone or paying for something. On Strategy, his answer is unusually restrained: it is a “clusterfuck of financial engineering” he does not fully understand, so he cannot offer an intelligent, confident forecast.
Quantum computing does not worry him yet, and he expects node operators and miners eventually to support quantum-resistant upgrades because their incentives align. Bitcoin’s deeper utility is remembered-seed portability: unlike property, bank accounts or gold bars, it can preserve access to capital when authorities freeze assets—the fate he says befell a billionaire hedge-fund figure forced to use a public defender.
On privacy, he finds Monero’s mandatory model more appealing than Zcash’s optional switch but says Monero’s total supply cannot be fully verified. Thread Guy illustrates the concern by asking whether a hidden supply-doubling bug could exist. Airmass considers Bitcoin private enough because addresses lack names, while conceding flows remain traceable.
Airmass says he started his first business at 17 and has never had a job. His final counsel is humbler: market intuition may require at least five years, beginners should not borrow $100,000 and blindly ape, and durable success requires becoming “laser-focused, obsessive… unstoppable, relentless.”
Full transcript
Yo, yo, yo.
Hey, how are you, buddy?
I'm good, man. It's nice to meet you. Can you see me and everything?
I see you perfectly.
Welcome to the stream, dude. It's an absolute pleasure to have you on, man.
Yeah, thanks for having me. It should be an interesting chat.
Yeah, I got a lot for you. I think a good amount of my stream viewers are familiar with you—maybe half. The other half isn't, so I want to set the tone on who you are. I'm going to read you, and them, a tweet of yours from about 2 weeks ago.
You were off Twitter, by the way. You were noticeably off Twitter for a while, and I was wondering what happened and where you went. You came back, and your first tweet back was calling Paul Tudor Jones a [expletive] for being bearish, even though he had recently flipped bullish and bought stocks higher than what you tweeted.
Your second tweet reads as follows, if you don't mind: “It's been more than 6 months since I last posted here. In that time, I crossed oceans, countries, stayed deep in jungles, mountains, and entire continents. There were weeks where I barely looked at a screen, days where markets, earnings, politics, and the endless noise of timelines felt like they belonged to another world entirely.
“I spent time in places where nobody cared or knew about stock tickers, market caps, or what the Fed was going to do next week. Places where people wake up with the sun, where storms roll in without warning, where the jungle at night is louder than any city on Earth.
“When you completely detach from the machine for long enough, you come back seeing things differently—simpler, more obvious. You stop overcomplicating. You stop looking for 10,000 variables and narratives. Sometimes the answer is just sitting there directly in front of you.
“So when I came back to the markets and started looking through everything again, one thing immediately stood out to me above all else: I swapped everything, including my position in Meta, straight into Micron, all-in. Because from where I'm sitting, after months away from the noise, it feels almost absurdly obvious where this is going. Micron is the next Nvidia.
“As for Bitcoin, nothing has changed. I never sell. Still holding every bitcoin I bought from $1,000 all the way up to $120,000. I think $120,000 for 1 bitcoin is a sweet deal, and I'm pleased with those buys.”
Absolute cinema. The day you tweeted this, I marked the chart with the Airmass line on Micron, which I might be off on here, but assuming you bought right when you tweeted—which you probably didn't—the entry I have marked is $519.11. Micron is now up 50% in the 10 days since you came back to Twitter and made that tweet.
Dude, welcome back. It's good to have you back. Do you actually trade better after time off? What went into this? What did you do for 6 months, and how did you come back with a clear head? Talk to me.
Well, I actually managed to get in lower, under $500—between $450 and $470. I was busy building a position, and I tweeted a couple of days later. It was moving pretty fast.
I don't know about this thing of having a clear head, because I'm kind of always clear-headed. I think the secret to trading is not to trade. That's the secret.
Interestingly enough, I checked out some of your episodes and saw this guest you had. I can't remember his name right now. Chris something.
Yesterday.
Oh, Chris. That was yesterday, actually.
It was yesterday. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Oh, okay. Yeah. I watched it, and I was like, “Wow, that episode left me so anxious because the guy is doing so much work.” In other words, he's obviously very successful, and no doubt what he's doing works. I'm not criticizing at all what he's doing.
I'm just saying, “Holy [expletive], this is really so much work.” Reading every comment under every TikTok post, going to a store to chat with the staff and the manager, buying some salad wrap, and running a whole network of people to do channel checks. I was like, “Holy [expletive], this is really a lot of work.” I could never do this, man. I could never.
In other words, you're glued to the screen. It's a serious, full-time endeavor. No doubt he's super successful, probably a lot more successful than me. Whatever. The point is that with a different approach, you can have the same, or perhaps even greater, success doing almost nothing at all, without doing all that daily grind.
I wouldn't be able to handle what he's doing. I just could never. There are a lot of guys who are glued to the screen, especially in the community and in crypto. A lot of traders are glued to the screen all the time, watching charts all day long—5-minute candles, whatever.
It doesn't have to be that way. It doesn't have to be that way. I post a lot of things, and I kind of disappeared last November because I was going through all these things. I just took off.
I'm not really going to get into it because it's a lot of personal issues, but the point is that I wasn't there for a while. The big moves, I post them publicly, so you can look at anything live as it happens. I would post, “I took this position,” or, “I took that position.”
Let's look at the Meta trade. I went into that at the 2022 bottom, where it was absolutely obvious and safe. Risk management is everything, and we're going to talk about that too—risk management, because that's everything. I carried that position with about 4.5x leverage or something like that.
Well, it was the bottom. It was so cheap, right?
It was just going up in a straight line. I added on the way up, so it became maybe a 5x leveraged position because it just kept going up in a straight line, with virtually no pullbacks until around $200 or something.
If you look at that, I built a position at $90. It went to $800 or so, and I didn't sell. I ended up getting out at around $680 because I saw Micron.
If you look at that result, let's just take 4x. From $90 to $680, that's about a 7.5x return. With the leverage, that takes it to about a 30x to 35x return.
Right. Man.
So now, if you were a trader with, let's say, $100,000—which most people can get access to; anybody can get access to $100,000, I don't care—take out a credit card or a business loan. Anyone can gain access to it, even if you don't have it.
Let's say you have $100,000. At 30x to 35x, you turn $100,000 into $3.5 million in about 3 years. I believe that beats Chris's annual returns, doing nothing at all, without that grind.
Again, I'm not criticizing because everyone has their own approach. It's all about getting the ball in the hoop. It's all about scoring the goal. It doesn't really matter how you do it.
I'm just sharing another perspective. I'm not here to criticize anyone because he's obviously very successful and he loves doing it. There might be other people who love doing it, but there are maybe many other people who feel like me and think, “This is a serious grind. I just can't handle it. It's too much for me.”
No doubt it's a lot of work. This very passive approach, if done right, can beat the very active approach. I really doubt that the majority of traders—even successful traders—can beat 30x to 35x in 3 years. That's very unlikely, especially when you do it with size, because size also matters.
This is another aspect of going all-in. People probably interpret it as some kind of reckless, daredevil move, when it's actually the complete opposite. The reason I'm going all-in is for safety.
There's this illusion that you have to be in multiple positions to diversify because it's safer. It's not safer. It's less safe. You have to pick the right asset.
You have to be right. Yeah, yeah. That's—
Yeah, but it's not just about being right. There are certain things. They say, okay, there's no such thing as a sure thing in trading.
There’s no sure thing, there’s no sure bet. I kind of disagree. There are positions that you can take that are a sure thing because here’s how I was looking at it, and tell me if you agree.
If you take Meta, everyone in the world uses it. I think 6 billion people out of 8, if not all 8 billion, interact with Meta products: Instagram, Facebook, WhatsApp, and a bunch of others. The moat that this company has is massive. It’s a massive business; they’re just printing money. The revenue is absolutely insane, and the numbers are staggering. This is a massive business, and that’s safe. Nothing is going to happen to a company like Meta.
Diversification is like this: Let’s say you own a business. For example, your podcast is a business.
Right. Well, do you have 3 other podcasts under different brands to diversify, or are you just focused on this one business?
One.
One. Right. I used to have a business. I used to run a business. I just had one business; I didn’t try to open 3 others to diversify. In fact, if I did, I would be totally screwed, because I wouldn’t be as laser-focused as I needed to be on building my one business. I would divert my attention to all these other things, and it would all fall apart and unravel.
Why is it that when you own a business, it’s okay to be all-in, but it’s not okay to be all-in on a massive company with management that is better than you and me, and better than most people? These are very competent people with a proven track record. They know how to run a company. They know how to build a company better than me and better than you.
Can I interrupt you just to say: Every day we start the stream with an intro, and it’s this video with Michael Saylor’s voice-over. He says, “How many chairs are you sitting on? Are you all-in on the chair? You put on one pair of glasses. You’ve got one pair of AirPods. You’re looking at me through one screen. It’s the exact—we play it every single morning: Are you all-in on the chair?” But you’ve heard it. Surely you’ve heard that speech.
Sure, but what he’s saying is a little bit different. The nuance to what he’s saying is a little bit different. The message is different from what I’m talking about, which is literally the practical reality of a business.
With Bitcoin, crypto, and things like that, there’s no— I’m really good at stocks because I can interpret the data. I can understand the business, what it’s doing, who’s using it. There’s no— it’s very difficult to do that with Bitcoin. Even though I think Bitcoin is going to infinity because of its design, I can’t tell you the key inflection points or whatever. It’s just pure supply and demand—really pure supply and demand. Nothing else is driving the price.
Whereas with a business, there are so many other variables that you can form a very concise view around. You can basically see where it’s going, and you can see what you’re buying and what it’s going to do.
Before Meta had that crash in 2022, it was already considered a great stock. It was an amazing company. All the fund managers were telling me, “You should buy Meta. It’s so great.” It was so amazing at $400 or $500 before it dropped to $88.
The business hadn’t changed. They just had to write off some bad investments in VR, right?
Yes, but that was just a one-time thing. The underlying business was the same business. That makes it safe, and from those levels, this is what you can say is a sure bet. It is not possible—effectively, you’re not taking any risk buying it in those conditions at that price.
You might be taking some risk with very high margin, because there could be some unforeseen volatility and you could get shaken out of your position if you go degenerate with margin. But let’s say you’re taking modest margin, like 2x. You’re not taking any risk because the company is not going out of business. The company is so deeply intertwined into everyone’s lives. It’s a sure bet.
This is not like a salad wrap in a restaurant, where who the hell knows what’s going to happen with that company. It’s a totally different animal. It’s a completely different situation we’re talking about.
In this case, when it’s at those levels, that’s part of the risk management. Size matters, and you want to be able to go all-in on this one good, safe thing that is completely mispriced, rather than have a whole bunch of positions.
I’ve tried that before. That’s kind of how I started out: buying this thing, that stock, because someone mentioned something about it, your neighbor said that, and your friend told you about this company. You’re buying this, you’re buying that, and you’re completely losing discipline. You’re losing risk because you can’t possibly fully understand all these businesses and companies. You’re just throwing things at the wall to see what sticks.
You can’t possibly fully understand these businesses and companies, and you’re buying into all these different things one after another. Eventually, you severely underperform because inevitably a bunch of those positions will not perform or will blow up. Even if you have some big winners, if those big winners are 5% or 10% of your portfolio, you’ve severely underperformed.
You should focus on this one thing that is really going to perform, understand it fully, stay with it, and make sure it’s safe enough to go all-in. There are no distractions. It’s an incredible asset. It only has upside, and you’re all-in.
So, on the all-in point, you nailed Meta. You obviously understand Bitcoin very well. I think $1,700 was your entry. In 2017, I think you tweeted, and you came back from a 6-month hiatus and publicly went all-in, at least via your tweets, on Micron at all-time highs. You not only went all-in on Micron, but basically every red candle, you were posting, “It’s free. If you’re not buying it at $800, $700, $600, you’re a [?].”
It is the freest, most guaranteed trade I’ve ever made in my entire life. How and why do you get there?
My question would be: How does someone not get there? How? It is mind-boggling. I have never seen a cheaper tech stock in my life. When I saw it, I was like, “I can’t— is this real? How is this even possible? How is the market giving people an opportunity to buy this?”
Even now, it’s just sitting there. The thing is, this whole efficient-market idea that everything is priced in is complete nonsense.
For example, when Lehman blew up in 2008, the market didn’t fall for 3 days. For 3 days, the market just wouldn’t budge before the biggest meltdown in decades. Anybody had the opportunity and plenty of time to position for a massive short and make a fortune. Why didn’t it just crater right away? It took 3 days.
I didn’t trade that.
But that’s what happened. What’s mind-boggling is that you had 3 days to position for that. Why was the market offering that? It took 3 days for the market to digest and react.
Things are mispriced all the time. In this case, not only is Micron making insane amounts of money, but its growth is staggering. They grew revenue by something like 400% in a year. For a company that size to grow revenue by 400%, while they can’t even come close to supplying all the orders—they’re maybe supplying half of the demand they have—the moment you hear that the company’s biggest problem is that it can’t supply enough product, you already know that should get your attention.
Their biggest problem is that they can’t supply enough, and it’s not because of mismanagement. Their factories aren’t broken or anything like that. They literally don’t physically have the capacity to supply enough. Then you look at the margin and it’s like, “Holy shit, these margins are insane,” approaching 60%.
Memory prices will just keep going up. Not only do you have a super-profitable business, but you have rapid growth. You would almost never see a company do that. The only company that did this was Nvidia, which was massive and grew at the speed of a startup. It was incredible to see.
Damn.
Right. So, when you think about this kind of thing, it's like—I almost thought, “Okay, are the numbers fake? What is going on here? Are they cooking the books? What’s going on?”
They’re cooking the books?
Or I’m just like, what is it? Am I missing something here? How can it be so cheap?
Why did it take you so long to find it, in the grand scheme of the price going up? You bought it at all-time highs.
Well, because I wasn’t even near a computer for at least 6 months, right? I wasn’t doing anything. I wasn’t trading or anything. I’m not very active in markets; I just kind of take a position.
But in this case, there’s also the fact that they have customers signing 5-year agreements because everyone’s worried about cyclicality, right? Of course, you come to them and say, “Well, we need some chips.” And they’re like, “Well, listen, if you want some allocation, we don’t have enough, but maybe we can help you out if you sign a 5-year agreement that you’re going to buy a minimum of this much over the next 5 years.”
So, everyone’s signing it because they’re desperate for chips. So where’s the cyclicality? If everyone now has them by the balls for at least 5 years, where’s the cyclicality? How is this just going to drop off in 6 months if everyone that’s buying has to sign a 5-year agreement? Where is it? It’s not there.
This thing was trading at around 5x earnings just a month ago. And to be able to buy—it’s not just about profitability; it’s about growth, right? It doesn’t matter how much money a company is making if it’s not growing, right?
For example, Coca-Cola—that stock is not doing anything. Why?
How can they grow? I mean, you can buy a bottle of Coke in the Sahara Desert, for God’s sake. It’s in every part of Africa. They’ve literally saturated the world with Coke. How much more can they grow?
They can grow 3% a year or something. They cannot grow 40% a year or even 20% a year. It’s impossible. So no matter how much money they make, the stock is not really going to move. It’s just going to be slow. You have to be like Warren Buffett; you have to wait until you’re 90 until you make some money, you know? So it’s like with Coke, right?
You love calling Buffett a [expletive]. You love it.
No. Yeah, I think the guy is so overrated. But anyway, basically, you’ve got massive profitability. It’s a tech company. It’s got growth. So it’s safe, right?
Why would you—in other words, Tesla has a P/E of over 200 or something. I think it’s like—
Something like that. When I bought this, the P/E was something like 5. So where’s your money safer?
In a company with a P/E of over 200 or a P/E of 5? Risk management is everything. You want a high-performance asset that has massive upside and is super safe, where you’re not going to blow up.
You’re obviously going to have a lot of volatility because people looking at this thing—when you look at the chart, it looks absolutely terrifying, right? If you don’t know anything about the company, if you pull up an all-time chart on Micron, I don’t think there’s ever been a chart like this in financial history, in market history, period. When you look at it, it just looks like a classic blow-off top. This thing could collapse and crash 90% at any moment, couldn’t it?
Yeah, it looks vertical. It’s just going in a straight line. It looks really scary.
Of course, a lot of people are terrified. Many of them don’t understand the business, and they might trade it, but they won’t hold it for more than a day.
To buy and hold this thing while looking at this chart—if I had no other information and I saw this chart, I would be terrified. I’d be like, “Are you crazy? How can you buy this? This is insane,” right?
But in this case, the reality is that the stock is cheap—really cheap right now—with this chart. It’s incredibly cheap. So it’s safe, right? I’m not going to blow up.
You can have volatility because a bunch of people are using massive leverage in both directions. It could, in 1 day, drop $150 or go up $150. You can have this massive volatility because many people are scared, they don’t understand what the hell’s going on, and they’re scared by the chart. That would be normal.
But if it’s dropping temporarily, I wouldn’t care because, again, I’m safe because the business—the company—is insanely cheap. Where can you show me a tech stock that’s building advanced technology, that is a critical component of AI, which is also advanced technology, that is growing at this speed, making these kinds of margins, and growing revenues at that speed? I don’t see any. I can’t find any other stock that comes close in terms of safety. There’s nothing else that comes close.
Let me ask you this. I want to get your framework. I think you’re one of the last true-blue-blood bulls left—just everything is going to go up forever-type bulls.
I’m going to read you one of your tweets, and I want you to give me your framework on this. You quoted Peter Brandt, who made a tweet with a chart of the S&P, basically saying it’s going to chop for the next 10 years based on historical expansion and consolidation.
You quoted me and said, “Total BS. USA is bankrupt, hyper-debt out of control. This is why markets will go up for many years. Billions who own no stocks will become much poorer. USD is worthless.”
Can you, without going too deep, give me your general framework for where the world and society, but also markets, are headed—and what you presume will happen to risk assets over the next 5 to 10 years as a trend?
I mean, it’s clear as day. First of all, the USD has indeed become worthless, although the average person may not see it this way.
When you see some Russian dude buying a $500 million apartment in Monaco—dude, he just dropped $500 million on an apartment. Ben Affleck sold some [expletive] company, an AI company, to Netflix. He's an actor who made some [expletive] AI for $600 million. Look at what athletes are being paid. Look at what—you can’t even buy a nice apartment for less than $10 million in most major cities. A nice one.
The USD is worthless. There is so much money. I understand that the average person may be experiencing inflation, but they’re not thinking, “Okay, it’s worthless.” But these days, $10 million almost just makes you middle class, which used to be a fortune. Say 20 or 30 years ago, you were set. Now, I’m not so sure.
That’s one aspect of it, but that’s just one aspect. The other aspect is that I was talking about this since 2022, saying that we were going into the biggest pump of all time because of everything—the rate of change—and this is different.
People who are saying this is a bubble are going to have a really rude awakening. All these people waiting for a correction with sidelined money are really going to get destroyed because this is not a bubble. These companies are printing so much money. It is unprecedented.
The amount of money that companies like Nvidia and Micron are earning—I mean, Micron is going to make something like $100 billion in profit this year. $100 billion in profit, not revenue.
Do you understand how staggering these numbers are? People are talking about bubbles. This is not 1999, where you had these worthless dot-coms with no revenue, just some idea, and they would put “.com” next to their name.
You have some pockets of bubbles in this market, obviously, because money is chasing stupid things. But the overall market is not in a bubble at all. Not even close.
What you’re going to see is that, as these companies get more and more expensive, the corrections are going to get sharper. Every time, everyone is going to think it’s the end of the world.
I can tell you right now—I’m usually right about these things—but I can give you the framework: The next correction will probably take the S&P down 15% to 20%. After that, you’ll have a massive pump higher, and then there will probably be 2 major corrections before the bull market ends.
They’re going to keep increasing in size because the companies are just more expensive.
Why does the bull market end?
What I mean by “end” is that after these 2 corrections, after the second correction, you’ll have an insane pump to insane levels. You’ll see Meta maybe go to 3,000 and Micron maybe go to 8,000 or something like that.
Yeah, something like that. Maybe 5,000 to 8,000.
Then we’re going to have a crash, but it’s going to be a COVID-style crash—really scary. The NASDAQ will probably—
Yeah, the NASDAQ will probably come down—
37% to maybe 45%.
Whoa.
It’s going to be really, really sharp, just like during COVID. It’s going to scare the hell out of people because it’s going to align with around that time, maybe 2030. People will be thinking about 1929. Everyone will be terrified, and all the 1929 comparisons will be everywhere.
Then it’s going to pump like a missile from there. It’s going to go from crash state straight up. Markets sort of alternate, right? We had a very sharp crash during COVID in 2020, and then in 2022 you had this bear market, which was a slow-burn decline. The next end of the bull market will be a sharp crash. You’re not going to have that same slow-burn decline again.
The thing is that a sharp crash is super bullish. In other words, you want that. There’s nothing more bullish than a super-sharp, rapid decline when all the leverage is being blown out. When it bottoms, it might sit at the bottom for a couple of weeks, and then it’ll just be another rocket to new highs.
With the right positioning and discipline, there are just insane amounts of money to be made.
You’re going to have volatility and corrections, and as things go higher and higher, corrections just get sharper. The idea that we’re going to have 10 years of a sideways market is absurd.
I agree. It’s absurd. Does this end in hyperinflation? Risk assets are so expensive that you can’t—it's like the only thing that’s worth anything. Does this end in the utter collapse of the economy? Where does this end? What is the climax of the 2035–2036 period? What are we speedrunning toward in its glorious fashion?
Honestly, I don’t even know why people think about these things like utter collapse, recessions, and so on. First of all, it’s never that bad. No one and nothing is going to collapse. The economy is going to continue to do just fine.
Look, even 2008 wasn’t that bad, even though it was horrible. At that time, I was really, really busy with my company, and I didn’t even feel it. I know maybe a lot of people were struggling, but overall, everything will be absolutely fine. Nothing will be ending. There is no line that, once it’s crossed, means we’re all going to die.
This is just a bull market, then it ends, and that’s it. There isn’t going to be a 30-year bear market. These ideas are nonsense. I don’t know why they’re such a popular thing to talk about. Life is great. Everything’s great. Look at your quality of life versus just 100 years ago. You and I would probably be working in a coal mine 100 years ago.
Things are really, really good, and everyone is fine. People always complain because things can always be better. Bear markets usually don’t even last very long, so even if you go into a bear market for a little while, what’s the big deal? It’s not the end of the world. Most of the time, we’re going up, right?
We are. We are.
It’s pretty clear that this combination of factors, with what’s going on with tech, means we’re at the beginning of some kind of singularity event. You can’t even keep up anymore with all these new developments. Surely you feel it—it’s too fast.
Yeah, it’s like everything hit escape velocity. There’s no recovering from it—the speed of information. I fully agree. It’s too much. I spend 3 hours a day on stream talking about markets, and it’s too fast. We miss everything. We miss so much every day.
Exactly. That is singularity. In the last 100 years, we achieved more through technological progress than in the last 1,000 or 10,000 years.
And then we’re achieving more in the last 10 years than in the last 100. Then we’re going to be achieving more in 1 year—
—than in the last 100 years. Eventually, you’re making 100 years of progress in 1 year, then in 1 month, then in 1 week, then in 1 day, then in 1 hour, then in 1 minute, and then in 1 second. You lose all comprehension of what’s going on.
Reality just gets saturated with intelligence, and you have no idea what the hell is going on. You just have to go along for the ride. This is already happening. Every week, there’s some new thing where you think, “What?” No one can keep up anymore because of how fast things are moving.
It’s going to accelerate. AI will make its own better versions of AI, which will make new breakthroughs, and it’s going to happen faster and faster. They’re adding computing power at an exponential pace. Everything is going to accelerate, not slow down.
This is a singularity-type event. The opportunity right now is that we’re in a massive bull market. There are going to be corrections. I would say that in the next 2 or 3 years, you’re going to have 2 relevant corrections—not as bad as April 2025, but you’ll feel them. Depending on your position, they might hurt.
Then there will be a crash, maybe 4 or 5 years out. I don’t know. You’ll want to go all in on that crash, every penny, because there are so many opportunities to create generational wealth that it’s mind-boggling.
Yeah, markets are just going straight up. I’ve got one more for you that I have to get your opinion on before you leave. Seriously, I know you’re going to say, “What the hell? This is normal,” but your true bullishness is refreshing to hear.
Crypto is in a little bit of a weird spot right now. You might not think so, but a lot of people who actively trade these markets—especially people trading alts and memes—feel like crypto is in a very weird spot. Bitcoin specifically has found itself, for a lot of active traders, in the “What’s the next narrative? What’s the next catalyst? What happens from here?” scenario.
In your singularity future, where does Bitcoin reside, and what happens to the beautiful, glorious gold coin?
I think people will be looking at $80,000 Bitcoin at some point in the future—maybe 10 years from now—the same way we now look at $1 Bitcoin from 10 years ago. That’s kind of how it will feel.
When you talk about narratives, the price itself is what drives the narratives. For example, absolutely nobody gave a damn about gold for 10 years. Zero people cared about gold except a bunch of weirdos and precious-metals people.
Then, as soon as it pumped and went from 1,500 to 5,000, all of a sudden everyone was talking about gold. “Gold, gold—what changed? Why is gold suddenly so special?” What changed was just the price. Only the price.
The exact same thing happens here. The price itself drives the narrative. Once Bitcoin starts to break out and make major moves, and then it’s at 200,000, 300,000, or 400,000, I assure you everyone will think it’s the most special, most precious thing in the universe.
They’ll talk about it like, “Oh my God, it’s so amazing. It’s so incredible. It’s so precious.” The higher the price goes, the more you’ll hear it. The price itself drives the narrative.
It’s not the other way around. You don’t need narratives; at some point, the price will randomly start to rise because eventually demand will overtake supply. It starts going up, and then that fuels the narratives and sentiment that you’re talking about. That’s how it’s going to happen.
It’s also just a really useful asset.
Do you worry about quantum, privacy, Satoshi’s coins, Saylor’s Strategy, or MicroStrategy blowing up? Are these things that you think about?
Yeah. Strategy is a clusterfuck of financial engineering that I don’t fully understand. I can’t intelligently tell you with confidence what might happen with MicroStrategy. There’s just too much going on, so I can’t form an opinion on that.
But in terms of quantum, no. Come on. These quantum computers can’t even do basic multiplication yet. They can’t even factor a number, so they’re not even close.
The point is that Bitcoin is a living, breathing network. It’s not a fixed thing. It’s literally a public resource with hundreds of thousands of node operators and miners all over the world, and it’s a self-sustaining system.
Because of all the different incentive structures, it will surely migrate to a quantum-resistant algorithm or mechanism. Every single node operator will support that because it would increase the value of their holdings and make everyone feel better about them. Of course this will happen.
There are contentious forks and things like that when people disagree about block size or whatever. No one is going to disagree and think Bitcoin shouldn’t be quantum-resistant.
Like, have you ever—
Only when I’m sending it to someone or paying for something. I’ll buy it and then sell it so that they receive the Bitcoin. But the Bitcoin I bought for myself, I’ve never sold any of my holdings.
Do you ever have a price at which you’d sell?
No. What do you mean by price? Bitcoin is my currency.
Some people have euros, some people have USD, and some people have Japanese yen. It’s just my currency. When you say “price,” it’s like saying, “Is there a price at which you’ll sell your Japanese yen?” That’s weird. Is there some price at which you’ll sell your USD? No, you just have your USD. That’s my currency of choice—the currency that I prefer to have.
It fluctuates against other currencies, but it’s the best currency. Let’s not forget how incredible Bitcoin really is and how many times it has actually saved my ass in many situations. It’s incredibly useful.
What do you mean by “saved your ass”?
Listen, imagine a situation where you have some creditors after you, or you’re running a business and some prosecutor has a low caseload. You import a container of bananas, and they claim you didn’t use the correct license to do it. Then they freeze all your assets and charge you criminally.
I literally know a hedge fund guy in New York who was a billionaire—with a B. One day, he gets accused of some stock manipulation, and they freeze everything. They come to his house, take everything out of his safe, take all his cars, and freeze all of his accounts.
Do you know what this billionaire had to do? He had to use a public defender. He couldn’t even hire an attorney.
He didn’t even have—
He was a billionaire using a public defender. Of course, he got completely fucked because they just ruined his life.
Imagine if he had some Bitcoin. He’d be able to hire any lawyer he wanted and continue living the lifestyle he was accustomed to. What the fuck are they going to do about his Bitcoin? They wouldn’t even know he had it, and there would be no way to take it.
Do you understand how it can save your life? People don’t understand that. They think, “That’s not going to happen to me.” I’ve seen that happen to many people. I’ve seen it happen to a lot of people when some bureaucrat can freeze everything you have with a click of a mouse. It’s as simple as that.
You have some beef with the IRS—not even because you did anything wrong, but because they think you did something wrong. There are a million reasons. If you own a property, you’re just paying rent to the state in the form of property tax. Then there’s all the maintenance, repairs, and other shit. What is it? You don’t own anything. It owns you.
You’re a slave to this property, whereas you can just rent something and leave anytime you want. That gives you complete freedom. In this case, I have Bitcoin, and I just know my seed. I have it memorized. All of it is in my brain. How are you going to take that from me?
How am I going to get to another country? When I was traveling with gold, was I going to stuff gold bars up my ass and go through metal detectors? Seriously, how? It’s completely useless when I think about gold. You can’t even transfer it anywhere.
How will you move to another country with a bunch of gold bars? Let’s say you decide to move to another country. You want to live in France, or you want to move to Thailand. How are you going to do that? Do you have any idea what logistics are involved? It’s a completely useless instrument.
It could be so easily taken from you because it’s physically somewhere. But my Bitcoin is nothing but a phrase that I remember and know. That’s all it is. How do you take that?
There’s amazing comfort in owning it because I know that no matter what kind of shit hits the fan, I always have money. I always have access to capital, and I can keep living my life the way I always do. No one can do absolutely jack shit about it. It’s impossible.
That is extraordinarily valuable. If you’re a high-net-worth individual who still doesn’t get this, you’re making a catastrophic mistake. One day, you might get fucked, and you’ll really wish you had Bitcoin.
You have to be literally reckless and irresponsible if you’re worth, let’s say, $100 million or more—or $10 million or more—and don’t have any part of your net worth in Bitcoin. You are insane. You are stupid and insane. You don’t understand the world you’re living in.
Look at what’s going on. First of all, we just went through COVID, all this wokeness, and all this shit. The disparity between the rich and poor is only going to grow. There could be a civil war. There could be bureaucrats going after you for any reason whatsoever, just because they don’t like you.
Do you know how easy it is to cook up a reason to go after you? Every time you leave your house, you’re breaking the law.
Do you know why? There are over 200,000 laws at the federal level alone. There are over 300,000 laws at the state level, and then there are hundreds of thousands of laws at the city level where you live. Do you know all of them? Not even an attorney on Earth knows all these laws.
That adds up to maybe a million different laws. You don’t know 99% of them, so you’re certainly breaking some of them. At any time, if bureaucrats want to get you for any reason, they have something on you because you’ve been breaking laws your whole life.
It’s designed that way because you don’t know them all. You don’t know most of them, so you’re breaking them unknowingly. Then one day, if they don’t like you, if you get involved, step on somebody’s toes, or become a problem for somebody, they can create a problem. It’s very easy to ruin your life.
Without Bitcoin, you’re absolutely fucked. It doesn’t matter how much money you have. I’ve seen it happen to multiple people. I’ve been through situations like that. There could literally be dozens of scenarios where Bitcoin can save your life.
We’re not just talking about getting rich by owning it because the value is rising. The functional aspect is that if you’re high-net-worth and don’t have Bitcoin, I think you’re insane.
Unreal. As a follow-up to that, you don’t have to go too long on this if you don’t want, but I’m curious what you think of the privacy coins—Zcash, Monero, anything else that falls into the bucket.
I mean, I think Bitcoin is a privacy coin. To me, it’s just hilarious.
But you like Zcash?
I mean, Zcash—the fact that it could be private or not private, or that they make it optional, like, “Oh, you can toggle privacy”—no. I had a little bit in 2017. I don’t have any anymore.
Something like Monero is more appealing because it’s fully private. There’s no optional privacy; it’s just there. But at the same time, Bitcoin is already private. There’s no name attached to any Bitcoin address. The fact that you can trace it doesn’t really give you a lot of information. You’re doing a lot of guesswork unless you’re incredibly stupid in terms of how you acquire it and store it.
It is a privacy coin. There’s no way to know, if you do some very basic OPSEC, how much Bitcoin you have or how many different wallet addresses you have. It’s not possible. I know they’re talking about Chainalysis and all this other stuff, but the reality is no one has any fucking clue.
Imagine, for instance, I bought Bitcoin—even on Coinbase. They know who I am; I bought Bitcoin on Coinbase. I withdrew it to some address. Question number one: did I withdraw it to myself, or did I send it to someone else? No one knows.
Let’s say I withdrew it to a wallet that I control. Then let’s say I go to your house and say, “Here, here’s 10 Bitcoin.” You give me cash, and I give you the 10 Bitcoin. Now I clearly don’t own it anymore. The Bitcoin is with you. What does it have to do with me? You can’t tell. Whose Bitcoin is it? Where did it go? Who’s controlling it?
Essentially, there is no actual ownership. Bitcoin is literally anyone who has the private key. Anyone who knows the key can control the Bitcoin, so there is no concept of ownership in Bitcoin.
They used to have these numbered Swiss accounts in the ’80s where you would open one with no ID whatsoever, and anybody who showed up with the correct number would be given the money. They had no idea who you were. If you showed up with the correct number for that account, that was it. It was a numbered account with no identity.
So what does it mean to own Bitcoin? If you know the key, and you share the key with your wife, do both of you own it now? Who owns it? What if someone else knows the key? It’s literally about having access or not having access.
The idea is that Bitcoin is already completely private because there’s no identity attached. In other words, when they say “privacy coin,” they mean something you can’t trace—an untraceable coin. A privacy coin really means that you cannot trace the movements from one address to another.
Yeah. Yeah.
With Bitcoin, you can trace movement from one place to another—from this address to this address—but it’s not really giving you that much useful information unless someone is being incredibly dumb with their opsec. They buy it on Coinbase with their ID, then go buy bricks of cocaine and never move it from the same wallet they withdrew it to. Sure, that’s a really stupid thing to do.
Someone who thinks it through wouldn’t do that if they needed privacy. For me, it’s private. I just don’t understand the need for Monero, because the problem is that it might be a great idea, but you can’t really fully verify how many coins exist.
They could literally have a bug right now that we don’t know about, creating massive inflation. What if the Monero supply just doubled this morning and no one knew? How would you know that?
How would you know that? Right.
Fair. I appreciate the take on the privacy stuff. Also, Airmass, we don’t do a ton of these, and I’m really grateful you came on. The Micron trade has been incredible so far, and it’s refreshing to hear a true bull.
As a sign-off, I’ll let you wrap on this. Advice to the listeners, aspiring traders, and younger generations graduating from university or high school into this regime. You don’t have to go super long; you can be direct. What do you do? Where do you focus? How do you win?
I think, first of all, I’ve personally never had a job in my entire life because I started my first business when I was 17. I don’t know what it’s like to actually work for someone.
But there are a plethora of opportunities out there. You can make money in so many different ways. The electronic market is an incredible opportunity because you can create so much wealth if you master it to some degree.
Today, I show you a total contrast to your other guest, Chris. There are other ways of doing it, and inevitably, even though you do need some experience, there’s a gut feel that comes from trading or investing for some time. I feel like you need at least 5 years to develop that gut feel.
If you’re just coming out and, say, you borrow $100,000 from your parents and ape into something, you should try to be very careful. Have a lot of discipline and tell yourself, “I’m just going to need some time.” You might blow up in the beginning, but it is well worth mastering this to some degree because there is no faster or better way to create massive wealth.
I don’t know any other business like that. I wouldn’t know how to do it—I don’t have the skill. There are some guys who take $50,000 to millions; I probably don’t have that skill.
For me, I built a business, sold it, and then had capital. But if you have decent capital, you can really mushroom that into massive wealth. There are endless opportunities—more than there were when I was starting out, in my opinion.
You have to become laser-focused and obsessive. Be unstoppable and relentless, and you’ll make it. Absolutely, there’s no question. No matter what your circumstances are, I promise you that if you’re absolutely relentless and have this unstoppable energy, you will make it—especially now.
Whatever that is, just be relentless.
My fucking guy. We appreciate you, man. Thank you for your time and for coming on to share your ideas and your thinking with us. We’re glad you’re back, man. Welcome back to Twitter, dude. It was a long 6 months, but my notifications are firing again.
I very much look forward to some future posts, but thank you again, dude. It was an absolute pleasure.
I appreciate it, man. Thanks for having me. I’ll be looking out for your posts. Thanks so much. Take care.
Have a good one. Peace.
Wow. Wow. Wow. Wow. Airmass, we did it. Can we debrief that? I mean, what do you think? I can’t wait to make $10 million and enter the new lower-middle class of America.
What kind of business do you think he was running? I think he’s actually a good human. My read is that he’s a good human. He’s very sharp. He’s nuts. Definitely an IRL kind of guy.
I think he crushed Bitcoin. He crushed Meta. He’s just like a—yeah, he has a firm handshake for sure. He’s a true libertarian, brother. He’s a real little-l libertarian—an abolish-the-government, real-deal libertarian. This guy is the real deal.