为何我们已经见底、油价触及100美元与稳定币交易

And to me, what this says is that crypto has bottomed. We've sort of exhausted all of the sellers. We can't really make new lows anymore. We've tried very hard to make new lows for 1, 2, 3, 4 weeks. Four weeks we tried, and then last week we went from 66 to 73. This week, I think, is going to be another good week.

And so I think we're going to start to see a big recovery in all of these assets that did really poorly. So all I'm going to say about this market is that I am fucking bullish on Bitcoin. I'm feeling good. I've been saying that below $70K is a good time to accumulate, and I think we've finally broken out.

Hopefully, we can sustain this rally. I think we're a little bit down today. Basically, the way that I'm thinking about this market is that it's just one massive wall of worry. Think about this: oil rockets to almost $100, we're fully in a war right now, everybody panicked for a little bit, and then the markets just decided, “Hey, you know what? I think we can deal with this. I think America is going to be able to handle Iran,” which is something that we've been saying from the start.

This is what I was saying last week.

And this is what we've been saying for a really long time, basically from the beginning. This is not different from all other panics. We know Trump likes to use the word “panic,” and I love that word. I think it's very funny and very apt.

We have a competent government right now, and we're executing the war in a reasonably competent way, regardless of what Iranian propaganda will have you believe. And regardless of what the New Right and the woke left will have you believe, the middle of the country knows that we're prosecuting this war effectively.

Yes, it might last 4 weeks. Yes, it might last 6 weeks. Yes, it might last 8 weeks. But this is not going to have a regional knock-on effect because Russia is not really going to get involved. Maybe they'll supply a few drones to Iran. China has explicitly said that we're not getting involved with this anymore. We don't want to get on the bad side of the US.

What we're seeing right now is a return to normalcy, but with this overhang of a lot of people who are still nervous about the war progressing and about regional expansion. That is when opportunity presents itself the most: when there's a large contingent of people operating on information that you can see through and realize is incorrect. That is when you're supposed to back up the truck and really take swings.

This is what we've been saying basically since the war started: dips are to be bought. Bitcoin didn't even dip. Bitcoin barely went down. It went from maybe 70 to 66, 65, and now it's back up at 74. We've finally broken out of this range.

Ethereum is doing well.

Look at Hyperliquid. Look at it. The ETH/BTC ratio—

Hyperliquid is absolutely crushing it. It was trading at $40 and is almost back to the highs. It's only 20% off the highs.

Trade oil on Hyperliquid. How cool is that? Hyperliquid is going to eat Binance. I can't believe what a good product that thing is. Go Jeff. What a Chad.

I mean, this was really inevitable, I think. We talked about this on previous podcasts. We've been Hyperliquid bulls, and I still love Hyperliquid. I think it can easily be a $150–$200 asset right now.

It becomes difficult to ignore when it's a place where you can take positions when nobody else can. If you're bullish on oil over the weekend and you want to get long oil on Saturday night, guess what? There's only one place where you can do that if you're not a broker. If you don't have ins, Hyperliquid is the only place where you can actively take positions while the markets are shut.

Let me tell you a secret about that.

It becomes such a valuable asset solely because, if you're not on Hyperliquid, you're at a massive disadvantage. Previously, it was the people who could hit the market. This is actually a beautiful thing. For the first time ever, we're seeing opportunity afforded to retail that isn't afforded to the big boys.

Citadel, Millennium, and all these large hedge funds can't trade on Hyperliquid right now for regulatory reasons. They're stuck waiting for futures to open if they want to put on these positions. A lot of them—not all of them, but a lot of them—basically, I would say 95% of hedge funds in existence, are stuck waiting for futures to open in order to trade oil.

You, the retail investor, can go trade with information that they have but can't do anything with. Now that is incredible stuff. Normally, they would have to wait for Monday's open, or Sunday. They would have to wait for the Sunday futures open at 6:00 p.m. But guess what? You don't.

When you see information like that—for example, one phenomenal trade that I love taking is doing the opposite whenever Jonah says something. I like to do the opposite.

Oh my God. I'm just fucking up here.

But Jonah did say, “Fade oil.” I also agreed because I outsourced all of my oil thinking to Jonah. So we both got liquidated. We're broke. It's over.

But all we have left is this podcast. All we have left. You said that insiders can trade via brokers on weekends. It turns out that's true, but it's not true because of Goldman, Vitol, and DRW—I worked at these companies.

If you want to trade futures on the weekend, you're getting—I don't know. I have a bunch of non-podcast-appropriate words to describe the bid-ask that you get charged. It's not cool.

So basically, Hyperliquid has institutional interest, too. As soon as it gets whitelisted at these big firms, they'll be all over it. And then the CME and ICE are kind of in a weird spot because it's legitimately a better product. I didn't mean to interrupt your rant, by the way.

No, no. That was good.

I'm just looking at the charts here for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Bitcoin has finally, finally, finally broken out of this range. I think we've cleared that $70K sell wall effectively. We're now hovering above $74K. Ethereum looks phenomenal.

I think one of the reasons that Ethereum looks phenomenal is because people are finally realizing that the stablecoin trade is what's in the market. I think we're still somewhat early to this trade. If you look at Circle, for example, Circle has more than doubled from the lows, which is kind of unbelievable.

I actually think this is total and complete nonsense because Circle doesn't generate nearly enough revenue to be valued where it is. I think the only reason that Circle is trading at these levels is that it's the only place to really express a view on stablecoin adoption. That and Coinbase.

Circle is more of a pure play on stablecoins, so everyone's crowding into it. People are just hoping that it'll grow into the valuation, which I think is somewhat unlikely. But what it tells you is that, over the last week—basically, since mid-February—people have been expressing that stablecoin trade. We've seen Circle double. Likely COIN also bottomed on February 9.

ETH/BTC is doing very well again because of stablecoin adoption. And to me, what this says is that crypto has bottomed because there's now a new narrative at play. That narrative for Bitcoin, at least, is that we've sort of exhausted all of the sellers. We can't really make new lows anymore.

We've tried very hard to make new lows for 1, 2, 3, 4 weeks. Four weeks we tried, and then last week we went from 66 to 73. This week, I think, is going to be another good week. So I think we're going to start to see a big recovery in all of these assets that did really poorly.

For example, Robinhood is trading at $77 a share right now. We got to a low of 70. Once Bitcoin gets rip-roaring again and ETH gets rip-roaring again, HOOD can easily go back to 120. I think maybe that $100—

Like a leading indicator for how HOOD performs? Whenever there's a flurry of trading activity, those things end up outperforming.

I've been actively buying crypto on this dip. That's how I've been fading the geopolitical stuff. I haven't been selling oil futures with unbounded downside—or, I guess, upside in price and downside in financial outcomes. I've been buying crypto. I'm bullish on crypto.

I think you said it best, Avi: the sellers have been exhausted. The sentiment could not be worse. People have written off literally everything except Bitcoin and a couple of Hyperliquid freaks out there who are into that.

But the space basically feels about as dead as it did in December, post-FTX, from a general building-activity perspective. And that's a sign. When crypto quiets down and the rest of the market is tanking, and crypto's just flatlining—like the patient is dead, the EKG is just a big sideways green line—that's when you kind of know that it's time to get back in.

I completely agree with your technical thinking on that. I think Bitcoin is going to be the shocker outperformer of the second half of this year because everybody has written it off and forgotten about it.

Honestly, though, people are panicking way too hard about this Iran conflagration. Iran is—I have never seen a nation of 80 million people. None of us in our lifetimes have seen anything like this. They are getting absolutely annihilated. They will not be able to shut the Strait of Hormuz for a sustained period of time.

And the thing about oil prices is that, let's say Iran—let's say that I'm wrong and the Strait of Hormuz does get shut—the oil price will force the hands of literally every single country in the world except Russia to go help out and reopen the strait. Nobody can tolerate a closed Strait of Hormuz. Nobody.

Even though The New York Times is lamenting Trump's decision and saying, "Look at how all of the NATO allies of the United States have declined to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Look at Britain. Look at all these poor, poor countries that have been dragged into this economic tornado of Trump's making." This is not an economic tornado. The second oil trades above $120, it's an economic tornado.

I guarantee you, even the most random tiny little Pacific islands—Vanuatu—will send a fucking fishing boat to the Strait of Hormuz to help de-mine it if oil trades up. Oil has a way of twisting everybody's arm. I guarantee you there's a ceiling. Obviously, in the short term, this thing can spike to a crazy level for 10 seconds, so don't sell oil futures. But buy good assets on dips, because the second oil spikes, the whole world is going to dive in. It's inevitable.

Yeah, I totally agree. Once this passes, which it will, I think the Nasdaq, tech companies, and everything have basically seen a massive de-risking from a broad set of individuals based on these AI fears. I think the main reason these people are not back in the markets is the oil fear.

When the oil fear dissipates, I think what you really want to be holding is the same trade that did well prior to the AI fears and prior to oil, because oil has now fully overtaken AI as the new hot fear. This is what happens in the markets constantly: there's always a new hot fear, always the next thing to be worried about. But when you clear the thing to be worried about, then you get up-only for some period of time.

We had the AI fears, and now we move to the Iran fears. Post-Iran fears, what you're going to see is a gap in the market where there isn't going to be any real fear that creeps in. All the assets that got hit really hard before are then going to start doing really well.

Especially, what I'm looking for are the 2 things that got hit by the AI and Iran fears. Those are software companies and large-cap tech companies. So that's big—well, and also Bitcoin, Ethereum, Google, and Robinhood.

I'm very, very bullish on the things that were doing very well in the latter half of 2025 that took a break, let's call it, in the first quarter of 2026. These things, I think, come back rip-roaring, because risk appetite is going to come back, I think, very soon. I'm bulled up, man. I'm very, very bulled up. So my portfolio right now looks like I'm just—

1. Crypto’s Token Supply Problem

You said you're bulled up, but I've got to share this chart.

Okay, let's see it.

Number of coins in existence. I tweeted about this. This chart kind of blew my mind.

This is what happens when you de-bottleneck all of the barriers to entry involved in creating a new token. It used to be hard. You needed a Solidity developer. Solidity was a new language. Or you needed somebody to build Solana from scratch with a bunch of engineers and a bunch of VC funding. Now you just need to click on pump.fun, enter whatever ticker you want, and it just happens.

To me, this chart makes me bearish on most altcoins unless there's an economic story. I know we've talked about that a lot on the pod, but supply will inevitably overwhelm demand forever when you can create supply ad infinitum. So I unfortunately think this crowds out a lot of projects with merit.

Even somebody said, "Did you buy Arrow, Jonah?" No, I did not. I've taken a bath on Arrow, and I'm not adding bathwater to the bath on that one because, unfortunately for me, I fear that the supply of altcoins in general crowds out most investment opportunities, even in the ones with plausible merit.

You're really stuck with just the businesses that have tremendous buybacks. That's basically Hyperliquid. What do you think of this?

Yeah, I think that's fair. I also think there's just too many things that I'm bullish on outside of crypto right now to be allocating to crypto coins that I don't necessarily think are going to do better.

For example, I think Hyperliquid is going to do extremely well because it's making a ton of money. I think it has the narrative of the moment, and when risk appetite comes back, people are going to crowd into the winners. I think Bitcoin is going to do very well because it is generally the leader when it comes to crypto-asset performance. I think it's the first place that people are going to shoot their load.

I think Ethereum is going to do very well because of the stablecoin narrative, and I think Solana could do that as well. Outside of these assets, I don't really see what even has a narrative. You can make an argument that NEAR might have an AI narrative going for it, right? Illia is doing very well pushing out new products.

NEAR is a money vacuum. Any money you put into NEAR disappears. That's my experience with NEAR. Whenever you buy a NEAR narrative, the money goes away faster than you can recover it.

But at least there's a narrative here. At least there's a potential reason to go buy NEAR Protocol that may draw money into it. I don't really see that with any other. It feels like TAO to me.

TAO is the perfect shitcoin, right? Nobody quite understands it, but you had a bunch of smart influencers talking about how it was going to be the substrate layer for agentic decentralized AI, whatever the fuck that means. Then it rallied a lot, people bought into that narrative, and it crashed right back down on terrible liquidity.

NEAR is the same thing. It's like, "But Intents. No, no, no, you don't understand, retail investor. Intents are the future of AI, and Illia is an AI guy. He worked at Google, and he's a huge head. He's got like a 60-inch head." Intents—that's the thesis for NEAR.

Sure, there's a lot of hype, but buying into a narrative for something like Intents doesn't matter. What matters is centralized token generation and the self-licking ice cream cone that is Anthropic, OpenAI, Nvidia, and the hyperscalers right now.

The only exogenous factor that will make or break AI is whether or not it generates a return on capital for corporate and individual users of tokens. That has yet to be determined. Nothing else matters. NEAR, Intents—don't waste your money on that shit. You'll lose it all. That's my take on that.

I really, really am wary of that one. Five years ago, it was like, "Look, sharding. NEAR is 6 years ahead of ETH on ETH's very own roadmap. Sharding. Buy NEAR." NEAR went to $20, and it crashed back down to less than a dollar. I don't remember the exact low, but yeah, this feels like another one of those, frankly.

Nobody needs Intents. I don't care. It doesn't matter. Show me the money and show me the token burn. Until then, do not touch it with a 10-foot pole.

Oh, but Stan Druckenmiller—speaking of crypto narratives—Stan Druckenmiller, the GOAT, the man, the guy who's never had a down year, the best trader of all time. He deserves the crown. He was the one who went on live TV and said that he doesn't like crypto. He thinks it's a scam. But he said that stablecoins are basically going to replace banking. And if he says something, it's right.

2. How to Get Long Stablecoins

Speaking about stablecoins, one of the positions that I've been eyeing that I don't have a strong position in yet, but I'm starting to think that it's probably about time to get into, is Sky.

Sky is the rebrand of Maker DAO. It's actually up this year. It's one of the few tokens that has done well and is actually up this year. I'm looking at it and thinking to myself: if we believe that stablecoins are going to be a big driver of value accrual and attention to crypto over the next year, where do we want to put our capital?

You might want to, again, put it in Circle, but Circle—I think it's a real company. The revenues don't make sense for the valuation. You can't buy USDT and USDC. Those things aren't going anywhere. They're staying at a dollar. And guess what? You're not going to get into the equity rounds of those things.

So that kind of leaves you with Ethereum, Solana, and then stablecoin issuers.

And then the stablecoin issuers are really where you can narrow it down and say, “Okay, if I want to make a concrete bet, this is where I put my money.” We’re seeing Sky perform very well. I think right now the annualized revenue is about $200 million to $420 million, depending on how you calculate it. The TVL is now $7.5 billion. The official Sky Money dashboard is $21 billion, and it’s up all—

URL for the Sky Money dashboard? Sky.money. Let’s see. Are you trying to drain my bags here, Avi?

Yeah, I am. I am trying to drain your bag. So, the Sky protocol TVL is $21 billion. The Sky Savings Rate is 3.75%, and info.sky—

What? No, just literally just—

Sky.money, brother.

It ain’t that. How do you spell it?

S-K-Y.

Y.money? Oh, wow. It’s really that simple.

They’ve got a lot of vaults. They’re making a lot of money, and they’re pretty low market cap in aggregate. I mean, the fully diluted valuation of this thing, with all tokens issued, is $1.7 billion. It’s making $200,000 in daily buybacks. It’s pretty damn good.

So, this is like the picks and shovels of the stablecoins bet. Maybe—why not Curve? Why would this beat Curve? I don’t know that Curve is going to do very well because I think that stablecoin trading is sort of over. A place to swap out stablecoins is kind of done because there are so many different places to do that now, and you don’t necessarily need a fully noncustodial option.

The whole idea of having a decentralized architecture to swap stablecoins, I think, is extremely valuable to have as an option, but in the world today, it’s never going to be the option. It’s always going to be a little bit more difficult to interact with these decentralized options than with the centralized options.

And even Hyperliquid, right? Hyperliquid isn’t really a decentralized option. It’s more of a centralized option, right? So, I think Curve is totally cooked. I just don’t think anyone’s using it. I don’t think their stablecoin is going to get any adoption.

USDS, I think, could get significant adoption.

Why? Why do you think that?

Because it was the first, right? It was the first decentralized stablecoin. Dai, right? This is the team that basically invented the concept of the decentralized stablecoin.

I think it’s already hit some level of critical mass where it’s very, very, very difficult today to launch a new stablecoin. I don’t think that’s going to happen. I think that the current stablecoins that already have critical mass are going to scale exponentially.

This is one of those things that you learn: Once companies get to a certain size, they become extremely difficult to compete with, but then they actually become better investments. It’s the same thing—remember what Peter Thiel said about Facebook? He thought once it hit $100 billion, he was like, “It’s going to be so difficult for it to go from $100 billion to $1 trillion.” But actually, it was easier. It was faster in many ways to go from $100 billion to $1 trillion because of the aggregation effects. Another time that he was wrong.

I think that’s very, very true with stablecoins as well. The adoption and aggregation of USDC, USDT, and USDS as a decentralized version—these things are already too big to compete with. I think it’s going to be very difficult for a new stablecoin to come out and capture any sort of market share.

Really, what you want to do is concentrate your bets on the old stablecoins and bet that they’re going to do very well and rule the world. One of the rare ways you can do that is by buying Sky, basically.

3. The Best Trades Over 3-6 Months

And so, this is one of the reasons that I think Circle does well right now, because even though the revenues aren’t necessarily tied even remotely—I mean, what’s the P/E ratio of Circle?

I’m just pulling that up. Circle financials, Google. It’s nuts. I know it’s going to be nuts. It’s going to be above 50.

Here. What the fuck? How do I pull it up? It’s kind of crazy. Forward P/E is 108 to 109.

Yeah, no.

Yeah, 119.

I mean, that’s fucking nuts. Also, the fact that their revenue is literally inversely correlated with yield.

Yeah. I think yields are going to have to go down.

Me too.

4. Time to Be Bullish?

With all of that being said, if yields go to 0.5%—if they go to 1% from here, which is going to take some time—the argument that Stan Druckenmiller would make, the argument that a lot of these other people would make, and the reason to buy Circle—and again, I am not buying Circle, I’m not touching Circle, I think there are other better options out there—is that if stablecoins are going to eat the financial system, this thing is going to grow so massively over the next 5 years.

You might see 5 trillion dollars in stablecoins. You might see USDC literally go from $100 billion to 5 trillion dollars in 5 years. And that is not priced. If truly stablecoin adoption happens the way that a lot of people think that it might, which is that it eats the entire financial system, Circle is really underpriced.

Damn. Right? That seems like a good side bet, you know? Have a little bit of that.

Coinbase is also a great bet because they take—

Hang on, quick question. If stablecoin outstanding float goes to 5 trillion dollars, how much BTC do you think the Tether guys are going to buy for their treasury?

This is going to be crazy. It’s going to be good for Bitcoin. That’s going to be really good for Bitcoin, because if there’s one thing that’s seamlessly interoperable and purchasable with a stablecoin, it is Bitcoin.

And if the whole world goes onto stablecoin rails, oh my God, you’re going to see global commerce migrate to Bitcoin.

And then, oh my God, the thesis that I’ve been fanning the flames of on this podcast for 4 years is going to come to fruition.

You’re on mute. And tell me, what is that thesis, Jonah?

The thesis is that Bitcoin isn’t even a dark horse candidate for the world’s next global reserve currency. It’s just waiting on deck for its at-bat.

It doesn’t need to take the number-one spot. It doesn’t need to displace the dollar. It just needs to show up and capture a few basis points of global trade. You’re looking at $1 million a token.

I want to share a video that I posted on my Twitter account.

Go ahead.

Give me a second to pull it up here. It’s global reserve currencies throughout time. I’m struggling to find it. I’ll—why don’t you give me your thoughts on what I just said while I pull up this video? It’d be pretty interesting to look at together.

Going back to Sky just for a second, I’m very bullish on Sky. I’m very bullish on Coinbase because I think that their alternative revenue streams will do well. I’m very bullish on Bitcoin, very bullish on Ethereum.

But I’m not super bullish. The whole premise of this entire conversation was, what are you bullish on? If you’re in crypto and you’re trying to construct a portfolio, how are you constructing that portfolio? What are you betting on in order to do well?

I’m bullish on HYPE. What I’m not betting on is Uniswap, Zcash, Aerodrome, Shiba, Pepe, or Fartcoin right now. Although they might have nice rallies, I think those are more like really short-term. You have to really trade those super effectively and get in and out because they’re going to revert.

Whereas all these other things, I think, might genuinely be 2-3xers over the next 6-8 months. You just have to buy them and hold, sit, and wait. It’s almost going to be low-effort money, because everyone, I’m telling you, is so scared right now.

Still scared of Iran, scared of AI, scared of everything. We are climbing the wall of worry, and we’re going to get to the other side.

Yes, I do still own SYRUP. I think SYRUP is still going to do well. I know you and me—we’ve gotten walloped on SYRUP. I think that SYRUP is still growing effectively. It’s still generating revenue. Yes, the token got hit, but I do think that it’s going to continue to grow and can continue to do well. In 3 years, it’s going to be a 10x-er.

We own our Ls on this podcast, and that’s okay. Back to the big-picture view, though: Short-term Ls don’t matter if you’re right about the big mega-trends.

I’m going to play this movie for you. It lasts a minute. I’m just going to talk for a minute while we play it. Look at this. This is a chart—a pie chart—of global reserve currencies throughout time. Look at how it’s shifting around. It’s a dynamic thing. It’s an ever-evolving—

Wait, you mean it is a dynamic—

Yeah, sorry. It is a dynamic thing. It’s not a static thing. It’s just this ever-evolving mixture of, I guess, over the last 100 years, the dollar, the pound.

There was, if you just go back to the very beginning for a second, a French franc. The Deutschmark was 15% of global trade, and the French franc was 20%. Then you fast-forward 50 or 60 years: the Deutschmark is nothing. ECU—I don't even know what the hell that is. The U.S. dollar is down to 47%.

The yen comes in there in the '80s, then Japan gets crushed. Now we're in the 2000s. I feel like I'm calling a baseball game here, but it's basically the euro and the dollar, and then a smattering of other currencies. My point here is, given how dynamic this chart is, let's say that the Swiss franc is 0.2% of global trade. Let's say that Bitcoin gets to 0.2% of global trade. What does that mean for the price of Bitcoin?

I think it's $1 million per token. If Bitcoin gets to 1%, 2%, 3%, 5%, or 10% of global trade, I think everybody who believed in this through the rocky times—those people will be the new plutocrats of the future. They will be dictating on-chain policy that has ripple effects through to global physical trade.

If the world becomes stablecoinized, if the back end of banking gets basically swapped out—hot-swapped—with stablecoins, and Druckenmiller's right, and he's always right, the next step is for global trade to migrate on-chain. Either Tether or USDC, 100%. And by the way, this is very bullish for the U.S. dollar. This is extremely bullish for the USD, in my personal opinion.

I personally think that this may tie into a little bit of what I was talking about on the previous podcast, where there are a lot of bullish tailwinds for the United States. Once this war is cleaned up and American hegemony is reasserted, and we bully the Europeans into coming to our side and supporting the war effort, we're going to see a flow of assets back into the United States like we've never seen before.

Gold is going to go down, silver is going to go down, and all of your emerging-markets plays are going to go down in the second quarter of 2026. This is my take. My take is that the second quarter of 2026 is an American quarter. Actually, this might last for the entire year.

I guarantee you Druckenmiller is scaling out of his emerging-markets plays right now, after going everywhere and talking about it. This is, by the way, classic hedge-fund stuff. You go and do a round of interviews to get the final push out of your positions. You don't do it at the peak. You do it when you think the trend is in the seventh or eighth inning.

The reason that you do it is to get a final little push, juice as much as you possibly can, and sell into that. But you don't do it in the ninth inning, and the reason you don't do it in the ninth inning is you don't want everybody saying, "Oh, man, Druckenmiller came out and called the top on this." So maybe you get another 10% out of it, so he can say, "Hey, guys, if you bought it exactly when I said and you sold it at the peak, you made 10%." Right?

You do it not when you think it's actually over; you do it when you think we're getting close. Then you get out of these positions using the liquidity that you just generated. I think this is actually fairly common. Hedge-fund guys—I know, I worked there—we don't love to talk about our positions.

I'll tell you about my positions when I get into them because I'm no longer at a $50-billion asset manager with hundreds of millions of dollars that I need to go deploy into assets. Basically, you have to assume that somebody who's managing $30 billion probably doesn't have your best interest at heart, because they need to move in and out of positions. They need to move in and out of positions, right?

And so it's not the most altruistic crew, is it?

My take here is that instead of Druckenmiller going on and talking up his copper positions, his emerging-markets positions, and all these other positions as a signal for the next year—and talking up his gold positions as if this next year is going to be amazing for these positions—it's really these next 6 weeks. These next 6 to 12 weeks might be amazing for the position, and that's it.

My take is that that's probably coming to a close sooner rather than later. What we're going to see is a flow of assets back into American companies. We're going to see Google start to do very well. We're going to see Robinhood start to do very well. We're going to see all these tech companies.

If you want to go out there and buy the IGV, which is the tech-software index, that's probably going to rebound because we're post-AI fears for now. At some point in the next few months, a new model is going to be released that's going to blow everyone's mind, and then AI fears are going to come back and you can short it again.

Until then, I think we're going to get a really nice move from financial assets, from software assets, and then also from crypto. We've been talking about Bitcoin. I keep telling you guys I'm bullish as hell on Bitcoin. I'm so fucking bullish on Bitcoin. I think that we're going up at least to 85 on this rally.

I agree.

But you have to, as always, be nimble. Be a trader. That doesn't mean when I say I think we're going to 90, that doesn't mean we are going to 90. That doesn't mean that if we trade 85, I won't be selling. What it means is I'm not selling here. And what it means is if we go to 78, I'm probably not selling.

Hmm.

But I think that maybe if we get to 80 or 85—let's put it like this: if we get to 85 and then we trade back down to 79, I'm probably selling. And you can't yell at me because we didn't get to 90, because you have to adjust your plans.

All I'm saying is that I think buying Bitcoin here is a very good risk-adjusted trade, because I think you can stop out. If we trade back down to 69 from here, I'm probably out, because that is the classic failed-breakout pattern, and that tends to lead to lower lows, to new lows. If we fail to break out, then it's actually probably a good short.

But as it stands right now, we have broken out. Therefore, I think it is a good risk-adjusted bet to take: buy here, cut under 69, and gun for 85.

5. The Galaxy Thesis

What do you think about—obviously, we're talking about buying things that have broken out and leaders. One laggard that I'm looking at is Galaxy. I think all the reasons why everybody was so excited to buy it above $40 are still intact, and it's trading at $23.

Crypto's making a little bit of a comeback. The AI data-center narrative seems to be making a little bit of a comeback after getting hammered on Iran. Why wouldn't we dabble? I see that it puked on earnings. They had a surprise, like, a shocker, on earnings. I'm not an equities guy, but maybe they just had a bad quarter or something.

I mean, it's basically like—well, they lost a lot of money. I think I know what's going on. Galaxy is the IPO'd version of Mike Novogratz's personal account. When Bitcoin goes down, they have a bad quarter. When Bitcoin goes up, they have a good quarter. For some reason, Wall Street treats that as recurring business income.

So I think it's just a very reflexive asset that may perform if we bounce back. What do you think?

I think so, too. If you're feeling spicy, you can take a trade on Galaxy. I think the issue is that the main reason—the entire thesis, Flood Capital's thesis and all these other people's, for buying Galaxy—is because they have a very large data center that they're repurposing for AI called Helios. It used to be a Bitcoin-mining data center.

This is going to be the main driver of their valuation moving forward, because the rest of their business lines don't make enough money, I think, right now, to justify their current valuation. The question is, will this data center end up being this massive win? People right now are voicing, "No, I don't think so."

That's why it's not doing so well, right? They're basically saying, "I don't think this data center is going to be as valuable as people are claiming it's going to be." That's what the street is saying. Now, all of the data-center analysts seem to be extremely bullish on it.

But the issue is the timing, right? When will they really be able to monetize? I think people are just not really sure. That's where I am, but maybe what we need to do is, maybe for my next guest, after we bring on Callidora, who's actually great—she's the founder of Ostium.

Wait, there are women in crypto?

There are, believe it or not.

Crazy, but there are. Never met them before. It's crazy.

Well, I'm going to be interviewing her. I don't know, Jonah, if you're going to be on that.

When is that?

I'm interviewing her tomorrow at 4:30. We're bringing her on. After that, maybe we need to bring on some equity analysts to talk about crypto equities. I think that would be interesting. We need to get somebody on who's really good at talking about crypto equities to inform us.

Come on, Avi. We're getting busy here. We're busy at the 1000x podcast. Is that a lemon Spindrift?

It is.

Good choice. It's my favorite. I got those as well. That's a real alpha. Can we get a Spindrift? Can we get a sponsor for this?

Yeah, exactly. I'm sure they'd pay a lot. I'm sure our audience would love this. So if we can prove that we can sell Spindrifts, this is how far I've fallen, Jonah.

I've gone from being a principal at a $50 million hedge fund to hawking Spindrifts on a live stream. You can trade, or you can trade on Spindrift. Which would you prefer? Obviously.

Does that mean we need to close out this pod? If we're talking about Spindrift, I think we're pretty close to the end here.

We need to close out on something even dumber. Are you the kind of guy who takes the tab off the can?

How'd you notice that?

I just saw you waving your can around and thought, “Man, there's no tab.”

Yeah, there's no tab. I'm a fidgety guy. I have ADHD. I'm hyperactive. I can't leave it on; otherwise, I'll just play with it and it'll eventually come off.

Oh, man. Yeah, you and me, that was not that. I wish we were sponsored by Spindrift. I keep showing the logo. I'd be really good at this. I keep showing you guys the logo.

You know what I want to get sponsored by? You know you've made it when you're sponsored by still water, but not regular still water—the $15-a-bottle still water that they serve in nightclubs, like Voss.

Oh, yeah. I was going to say, if we could get Voss water from Norway to sponsor us. You know what would be great? That'd be a great tagline: “I drink Voss after you make it.”

No, you trade better when you're hydrated. We have to workshop that one.

Yeah, it's like Gatorade. It's like Gatorade for trading.

You know what? I bet there's a market for an energy drink marketed to finance bros and traders. We'll call it Bull Water.

New Bull Water. Nuclear horse piss.

All right, sweet. Avi, let's get on it. Let's get sponsored by some elite Norwegian water brand. In the meantime, dude, it was great talking to you this week. I feel like we're going to get through this. It's not the end of the world in financial markets. We're going to make money again.

This is great. We actually got like 2,500 on this one.

Yeah. We squeezed some of that Icelandic glacier water out of the rock, you know?

We love it. All right, brother. We'll talk soon. Good seeing you, bro. Later. Adios.