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1000x · · 39 分钟

为什么永续合约正在接管市场|Kaledora Kiernan-Linn

Avi FelmanJonah Van BourgKaledora Kiernan-Linn

YouTube
TL;DR
  • Ostium(字幕中译作“Austerium”)的创立逻辑是:消费级交易App在2008年危机至COVID期间,于零通胀、利率可预测和地缘政治平静的环境中演进,而COVID是一场范式转移,未来10–15年将把这3件事全部反转。 她给出的证据是:市场在1周内从预期降息3次转向预期加息1次,构成“十年来最快的反转之一”。
  • 由此出现2个可交易的后果。 零售交易者现在交易的是事件的二阶影响:押注霍尔木兹海峡局势、交易Brent/WTI价差——5年前这还“不是消费级交易的领域”;预测市场则成了进入这类交易的“入门毒品”。同时,交易者默认跨资产操作:同一天、同一工具里交易Bitcoin、黄金、石油和Nvidia。永续合约正是承载这一行为的工具,即“万物永续化”(the perpification of everything),这是她针对资产代币化提出的另一种概括。
  • 结构性判断是:DeFi最大的机会并不是从零重建交易所基础设施,而是“为全球市场做的事情,基本上就像稳定币为美元做的事情”。 Circle和Tether作为加密行业最赚钱的公司,并没有重造美元,而是把现成的美元搬上链。Ostium是经纪层,不是DEX:没有订单簿,依靠即时结算的流动性池,方向性资金流在底层市场对冲,并每日盯市。Jonah认为,Ostium的成交量似乎约有80%来自RWAs。
  • 值得借鉴的仓位信号是:自1月底以来,Ostium交易者极度净多石油、净多黄金,同时轻仓做空S&P,押注他们“很早”就识别出的滞胀交易。 通常应当反向交易零售平台,但这里的参与者是“protail”——单个巨鲸在大额调仓;尽管盈亏波动剧烈,“我们的交易者其实相当不错”。
  • 她对市场结构的判断是:这是“后现代投资”,也是“超级在线人群的复仇”——传统金融如今越来越像加密市场,“由动量驱动、由情绪驱动、具有强烈反身性”。 真正的Alpha来自理解病毒式传播回路,包括连接特定Twitter账号、通过程序化交易捕捉关键新闻的代理。Avi的推论是:波动率有利于小资金,如果必须在一瞬间改变观点,管理100万美元显然比管理10亿美元更容易。
  • 面向投资者的创始人筛选框架是:20年芭蕾训练赋予她10–15年的时间视角(“insane alpha”),但她也必须放下完美主义——“果断往往比正确更重要”。 Ostium成立的头3年是“信念地狱,而不是转型地狱”:坚持单一判断,在市场成熟并给出反馈前活下来——“光是不受伤,本身就有巨大的Alpha”。
摘要 · 为研究而整理的核心内容

1. 芭蕾塑造了这位创始人——但她放下了完美主义

  • Kaledora从3岁开始跳舞,之后在Boston Ballet和Royal Danish Ballet度过了5年职业舞者生涯。真正可迁移的优势在于时间尺度:为了一个梦想,你要训练15–20年,才有机会登台;在“绝大多数人都以极短时间尺度行事”的世界里,她认为,“能以10–15年的时间尺度思考,本身就是难以置信的Alpha”。
  • 她需要放下的东西则是:芭蕾要求“用2到3个10年反复练同一个动作”,直至完美;做公司却是80/20法则——“果断往往比正确更重要”。她说,创业从根本上改变了自己对完美与“足够好”的理解。
  • Avi给听众提供了一条投资筛选标准:押注参加过竞技体育的创始人。Novogratz就“喜欢招Princeton摔跤手”,因为这类经历释放出的信号是:有决心把事情做到底。
  • 她对生存的概括是:创业公司需要同时具备2种相互对立的模式——追逐由迷因和多巴胺驱动的动量,以及“真的不能死”。活得足够久,才有机会等到好运:“光是不受伤,本身就有巨大的Alpha。”

2. 她为何离开舞台:登上技术列车

  • 她退役的决定“极其遵循第一性原理”,既不是受伤,也不是倦怠——她热爱芭蕾。还在跳舞时,她读了《黑天鹅》和《人类简史》(Sapiens),由此相信自己这一生所处的世界将经历史上最快的变化。摆在她面前的是一条分岔路:守护一种“极其高尚”的艺术形式,还是“靠近驾驶技术列车的位置”。当时她对AI和加密一无所知。
  • 她与Taleb的交流既有喜剧效果,也有实质观点。Avi说,“每个成功且聪明的人,某个阶段都有过Taleb时期”;但Kaledora读这些书时,它们还处在曲线前端——“太多人读了之后,它们才变成曲线中段的东西”。她接过这个话头:“我当时领先曲线太多了。”
  • 她选择的书、并以“普通人立场”为自己辩护的作品,大概率是《人类简史》(Sapiens)。她把它归为哲学问题:范式转移如何发生,以及人们该如何思考尾部风险。

3. 信念地狱,而不是转型地狱

  • 按她的说法,她在哈佛大一秋季学期第一周的Ec 10课上遇到联合创始人Marco——两人是班里“最有主见的2个学生”。她结束芭蕾生涯回到学校后,两人都去Bridgewater实习:她在一位CIO的团队,Marco在大宗商品部门。两人经常深夜在Dunster餐厅讨论市场、哲学和地缘政治,“我们就是那个迷因本身”。
  • 她对早期岁月的描述很反常规:大多数创业公司陷在转型地狱里,而Ostium的头3年是“信念地狱”——只有1个核心判断,信念极强,但所处的加密市场“显然还不够成熟”,无法验证这一判断。她对团队说:“你们必须穿过信念炼狱,很快我们就会身处信念天堂。”
  • 她创业生涯中最剧烈的切换,是从资源稀缺、优先延长现金跑道,转向在判断被验证后“尽快把一切都扔到墙上”,以守住先发优势。这是2种完全不同的思维模式,而公司所处阶段决定了你需要哪一种。

4. 2020年打破了旧 regime,交易App却还没跟上

  • 她的核心判断是:第一代消费级交易App——加密市场里的Coinbase、股票市场里的Robinhood——在2008年至2020年间成长于零通胀、利率可预测和地缘政治平静的环境。COVID是一场范式转移,未来10–15年将把这3个条件全部反转。她举出的证据是:市场今年的利率预期在1周内从降息3次转向加息1次,“这是十年来最快的反转之一”。
  • 第一个后果是,消费者开始交易事件,而且不只交易一阶影响:Twitter上到处都是押注霍尔木兹海峡局势、交易Brent/WTI价差的人,这过去属于机构交易。预测市场“几乎就像一种入门毒品”,把人带进事件的二阶交易,因为“宏观如今正在驱动波动率……宏观新闻就是新的真人秀”。
  • 第二个后果是:“未来的交易者默认跨资产操作”——同一天、同一工具里交易Bitcoin、黄金、石油和Nvidia;永续合约则把到期的期货和期权抽象掉。她指向当天早晨Bloomberg关于加密交易者转向跨资产交易的标题,称这“只是开始”:按单一资产类别划分市场的方式“正在彻底瓦解”。
  • Avi也从自己的经历出发印证了这一点:2022至2023年在GoldenTree时,他的宏观交易基本局限于押注美联储会议;如今,在他所谓的“娱乐金融”时代,Trump相关标题和全球波动率的自然上升,让宏观交易比4年前有趣得多。

5. 不是交易所,而是把全球市场稳定币化的经纪层

  • 她在节目开场提出的判断是:DeFi最大的机会“不是从零重建交易所基础设施”,而这基本上就是加密市场所有永续合约项目采取的路径;真正的机会,是把流动性充足、运转有效的现有市场,通过链上结算和透明度扩展到全球。类比来看,Bitcoin极端主义者试图从零重造法币;而Circle和Tether——加密行业最赚钱的公司——只是把现成的美元搬上链。Ostium想做的,是“为全球市场做的事情,基本上就像稳定币为美元做的事情”。
  • 因此,市场对Ostium存在一个普遍误解:它不是交易所,不是DEX,而是经纪层。它没有订单簿,也不承担撮合功能。从零重建黄金的流动性,意味着可执行的成交规模会差上几个数量级——“这是物理定律。”
  • 机制上——她补充说“大升级很快就会到来”——系统有2个资金池:其一是日内借贷设施,规模按未实现盈亏的倍数配置,以确保核心原则成立,即“任何交易都能即时结算”;其二是方向性资金流在底层市场对冲,由传统市场参与者竞争这些订单流,并进行每日盯市和再平衡。
  • Jonah进一步指出,这套架构对已经由1到2家做市商控制的加密资产,可能有助于流动性较大的市场更快启动,但对长尾山寨币的改变有限;她认为这个判断“大体正确”。Jonah还表示,Ostium的成交量似乎约有80%来自RWAs。她的判断是:黄金可能值得从头重建,但到了铜及更小众的资产,把流动性拆散到多个订单簿中就会变得困难。

6. “Protail”巨鲸提前押中了滞胀

  • 真正来Ostium交易的既不是机构,也不是“微小虾米”,而是“距离专业交易者只差一层”的人:单个巨鲸和小型家族办公室,用自有组合调动大额资金,年龄大多在20多岁末至30岁出头。他们“更信任互联网,而不是传统机构”,同时需要更好的执行,因为他们不是在最优价位只成交几笔小单。
  • 节目中最具交易价值的信息,是他们的仓位:自1月底以来,极度净多石油、净多黄金,轻仓做空S&P——这是他们“很早”就押注的“滞胀交易”。她也提醒传统规则:“在零售平台上交易时,几乎总是应该反向操作。”但撇开剧烈的盈亏波动不谈,这批交易者“其实相当能打”。

7. 后现代投资:超级在线人群的复仇

  • 她对这个时代的概括是:科技曾经是“书呆子的复仇”,如今市场则是“超级在线人群的复仇——Twitter的复仇,4chan的复仇”。传统金融正在向加密市场的行为模式靠拢——“由动量驱动、由情绪驱动、具有强烈反身性”。在互联网环境中长大、理解病毒式传播回路,正在成为真正的优势,甚至包括把代理连接到特定Twitter账号、通过程序化交易捕捉会改变市场情绪的关键新闻。
  • Avi补充说,波动率对小资金有利:“如果你必须在一瞬间改变观点,管理100万美元比管理10亿美元更好。”
  • 节目结尾的背景故事也解释了她的起点:她的德国父亲在东德长大,家里一直讲恶性通胀的故事;他的手机壳则定制印着魏玛时期的1亿帝国马克钞票。这是一个反对印钞、信奉奥地利学派经济学的家庭。Avi最后打趣道:“她爱上加密,本来就是血液里的东西。”
Kaledora Kiernan-Linn

Our view is that the biggest opportunity in DeFi is not rebuilding the exchange stack from scratch, which is basically how everybody has approached trying to build out perps in crypto. It is taking these really liquid and highly functional existing markets that are working, massively extending their global reach, and bringing the instant-settlement and transparency benefits of what you would get on-chain.

Avi Felman

All right, guys. Welcome back to another 1000x podcast. We've got a very special guest today, Kaledora, who is the founder of Ostium, which is an awesome exchange that I wish I had invested in when she first called me because it is doing so well right now. You can trade basically anything on it, and I'm happy to have her on the podcast today. Welcome to the podcast.

Kaledora Kiernan-Linn

Thanks for having me, Avi. I'm excited to be here.

1. What it Takes To Become a Founder

Avi Felman

I wanted to start by asking you about your background because you have a very interesting path into crypto. A lot of people, when you ask them how they got into crypto or finance, say, "Well, I graduated college, then I got a job at a finance company, then I hated it, and then I left." But what happened with you is that you actually started on the stage of the Royal Danish Ballet. Did I get that right? You did 5 years of professional ballet, performing under intense pressure, and then you pivoted to finance. Maybe walk me through how all that happened.

Kaledora Kiernan-Linn

Definitely an unusual background. That's correct: my first career was as a professional ballerina. I started dancing when I was 3. You have to start training very young, and I started dancing professionally after high school. I spent 1 year at Boston Ballet and then 4 years at the Royal Danish Ballet.

Ballet prepares you in a lot of surprising ways for being a founder. Obviously, that was not the intention. I pursued ballet single-mindedly and was focused on that for 20 years, then went back to school and found my way into building a company, but a lot of the skills have been surprisingly translatable.

There are obvious ones, like focus and a long time horizon, which I think is an underdiscussed and undervalued one. You start ballet when you're 3 for a dream that might come true—you might have a shot at it coming true—15 to 20 years down the road. In a very short-time-frame, positive-outcome world, where most people are operating on a very short time horizon and foreseeing returns on their choices, I think it's insane alpha to be able to think on a 10- to 15-year time scale. That's probably a unique edge, along with discipline and all the basic competitive-athlete-type things.

There are other parts that I think have been unhelpful in some ways from ballet. The most obvious one, and I've written about this a little bit, is perfection. I like seeking perfection rather than good enough.

I think anybody who's built a company would say this, but building companies has fundamentally changed me as a person, or changed my philosophy about certain core things. One of them is the pursuit of perfection versus good enough.

A very important way to understand why people don't understand politicians who become businesspeople is that they don't understand that being good in business is a lot about 80/20. It's all about making a lot of decisions really quickly, and being decisive is often more important than being right.

That's a very different mindset from ballet or classical art. Ballet is both an Olympic sport and a classical art, where you're practicing the same move for 2 or 3 decades to get it to a point where it's as close to perfect as possible.

Avi Felman

I think all those points are very valuable and interesting. For me specifically, one of the things that I love betting on, if I'm investing in a founder or investing in a trader, is somebody who has done competitive sports.

For example, I used to work with Mike Novogratz, managing his book, and he loved hiring Princeton wrestlers. He just loved it. I was a wrestler in college, and I think that's why we bonded a little bit.

There's this mentality that you bring toward everything that you do. A nontrivial part of it is the determination to see things through. You just don't give up.

I think it's important to discuss that philosophy here because hopefully a listener will say, "Okay, if I'm evaluating a company, let's see if the founder did anything really impressive before they started a company." I think that's a pretty good signal.

Kaledora Kiernan-Linn

I think also just being able to stick to the grind, not expecting to see immediate results, and not operating on that basis. A lot of building a company is momentum. You need these 2 very different mental frameworks.

One is knowing how to growth-hack and chase momentum to generate momentum. That one's very memetic, very dopamine- and short-term-driven. You have to know how to ride that wave.

But there's also an element of building a startup that is just literally not dying. These are 2 very different mindsets.

I personally found the biggest, most jarring transition in the company was going from the period of time long before we had market feedback to indicate that our core thesis for the company was correct, to when it turned out that the core thesis of the company was correct, but now we had to move really, really fast to make sure we continued to capture the first-mover advantage.

Those are 2 very different mindsets. One is more of a scarcity mindset, prolonging runway, and the other is more of a throw-everything-at-the-wall-as-quickly-as-possible mindset to move forward and create action.

You need to be more balanced toward one and more balanced toward the other at different points in time in your company, depending on your stage. A lot of being a founder, especially at the early stages—and just long-term, for company longevity and making the right decisions over time—is surviving long enough to get lucky.

I think there's a lot of that in athletics as well. Don't get injured. There's huge alpha in just not getting injured.

2. Building Ostium

Avi Felman

Yeah, it's avoiding the blowup scenarios, I guess, is one way that I phrase it. I want to dive down on what you said there about the core thesis.

After you're an athlete, you go to Bridgewater, and then at some point at Bridgewater you have this aha moment and leave Bridgewater to start Ostium. I'm curious: first of all, what was the core thesis that led you to leave Bridgewater to start Ostium, and what have you done since then to bring that vision to reality?

Kaledora Kiernan-Linn

I retired from ballet and went back to Harvard. I started as a freshman. I was a bit older than the average freshman because I'd been dancing for a few years.

I met Marco the first week of freshman fall in Ec 10, which is the intro econ class at Harvard. We were the 2 most opinionated kids in the class, so at some point we decided we should stop bothering the rest of the class and just start talking to each other. That was the genesis of the friendship and, ultimately, of the company.

Avi Felman

Wait, you were friends with your co-founder for a long time before you started this company?

Kaledora Kiernan-Linn

Yeah, he's been to my Thanksgiving, he's friends with my brother—we were super good friends before we started the company. We've been friends since the first week of school.

Both of us interned at Bridgewater in different summers. I was there 1 summer working on one of the CIO's teams, and then he worked the next summer on the commodities team. I also spent a summer working at an equities fund, so we interned at different hedge funds in different summers.

While we were in school, we spent a lot of late nights sitting in the dining hall, talking about markets, philosophy, and geopolitics—basically macro. We met in a macroeconomics class, so that was very prophetic in many ways.

The way I would articulate the core thesis that we developed, which was the driving force behind our choice to build out the company, was that it was the core thesis behind Ostium.

I've said this a few times, but contrary to a lot of companies, we were not in pivot hell. A lot of companies are in pivot hell. It's very common to start a company, start one thing, and then move on to another thing because you're not getting market feedback.

I would describe the first 3 years of Ostium not as pivot hell, but as conviction hell, because we had 1 core thesis and incredible conviction in it, but the market wasn't mature enough and wasn't ready for it. That is also why, going back to what I was saying before about this scarcity mindset and staying alive versus pushing momentum, these are 2 very different modes. A lot of the beginning of the company was this conviction-hell period of building in stealth, building in the darkness, before there was real market feedback. The crypto market was definitely not mature enough at the time for what we were building.

We were in conviction hell, and I tell my team: if you focus and have the right thesis, and follow it for long enough, it will lead you to conviction heaven. You have to pass through conviction purgatory; soon we'll be in conviction heaven.

The core thesis was the following. We thought the first generation of consumer trading applications evolved basically between the Great Financial Crisis in 2008 and COVID in 2020. They evolved during a completely different macro environment than the one we're in now, which is characterized by 3 main things: basically zero inflation, very nonvolatile and predictable interest rates, and very little geopolitical instability, certainly compared to where we are right now.

Our observation was that COVID—we lived through COVID in school; we were in college, got sent home, and went through the whole thing—fundamentally changed something in the markets, and we're in a new paradigm. It was a paradigm shift. We thought the next 10 to 15 years were going to be completely different from that first window during which consumer trading had evolved. It was going to be characterized by basically the opposite of the 3 things I described: persistently higher and more unpredictable inflation, persistently higher and more unpredictable interest rates, and much more geopolitical instability.

I think if you just look at what's happened in the last week in terms of the reversals from anticipated 3 rate cuts this year to 1 rate hike, that's been one of the fastest reversals in, I think, a decade or some nontrivial period of time. So that has certainly come true. The third one was much more geopolitical instability, and I think that goes without saying. What does this mean for markets?

Jonah Van Bourg

I was going to ask you to dive into that a little bit more. I'm curious. I think people often hear, “Okay, this is my thought on what is going to happen in the future,” but how did you get there? What were you seeing in the markets, or what were you seeing in the world, where you thought, “Oh, everyone else has it wrong. I think we have an edge here to go build this?”

Kaledora Kiernan-Linn

I don't know that I necessarily thought we had an edge as a team in the beginning. I think we were just—this is super nerdy—but we were just in college, and we were this kind of meme of people being in college and sitting and having late-night conversations about philosophy. That was literally us. We were the meme of that. We were like that to the end. People who went to school with us are like, “Kaledora and Marco were always in Dunster dining hall, talking about philosophy and markets.”

We were still thinking about where we thought the world was going, not with any end goal. We weren't like, “We're going to build a company.” It was just talking about markets and philosophy and all this stuff. Going back, I think we're very first-principles thinkers. We didn't get to the company by paving some windy road; it was really top-down: where do we think the world is going? Then we got to, “What are some things that you would build if—how would you make your career decisions? What would you do if you thought this is where the world was going?”

To be more practical about what we thought, we also read a lot of Jeremy Grantham and all these long pieces about how the market was going to collapse. I think we read a little bit. I was also really into Taleb at one point, and he's proven to be a little bit—

Avi Felman

I think all of us have had a Taleb phase. I think everyone successful and intelligent has had one at some point in their life. Then later, they sort of woke up and went, “I like this guy?” But it's fine.

Kaledora Kiernan-Linn

Anyway, he had a big influence on my thinking. Fun fact—I don't know if I've ever talked about this publicly—but I read The Black Swan when I was dancing.

I don't even talk about this, but the reason that I also retired from ballet was extremely first-principles. It was very rational. I don't think a lot of people retire because they get injured or because they hate ballet. I loved ballet. I loved it. It was my first love. It was my obsession. I spent 20 years focusing on it.

I retired from ballet because I read a few books, and now I'm embarrassed that these were the books that had such a huge impact on me. I read Sapiens, and someone's going to roast me for being so mid-curve. But I read a lot of—

Avi Felman

Actually, here's my take before you denigrate yourself for these books: they're mid-curve now, but when you were first reading them, maybe 6 or 7 years ago, they were actually good books. I think too many people read them, and then they became mid-curve. So I don't know if I love that take.

Kaledora Kiernan-Linn

I'm totally going to accept that. I'm not mid-curve at all. I just was so ahead of the curve that I—

Avi Felman

Neither. Nobody's mid-curve here. You either want to be left or right.

Kaledora Kiernan-Linn

I think I'm left. That's my skill set. But I don't know. We'll see.

But anyway, I read some of these books. Basically, I was dancing, and I thought the world was going to change in a completely insane way in my lifetime. Choosing to be in the arts for the rest of my life is fundamentally like preserving a kind of existing art, which is extremely noble and wonderful. I'm a huge supporter of the arts, and it was amazing.

The world's going to change a ton in my lifetime, and I saw it as this kind of fork in the road: I can dedicate the rest of my life to preserving an art form, which is incredibly noble and great and is a really amazing choice for a life in 1 universe, or I can try to be a part of building the future in some really abstract way.

Again, that sounds extremely abstract, but I had this conviction that we were at this big technological turning point. I knew nothing about AI at the time. I knew nothing about crypto. But I thought the world was going to change faster than it had ever changed in my lifetime, and I could either be on that train or not be on that train. Ideally, I'd be close to driving the train, or somewhere towards the front.

So I saw retiring from ballet as basically a choice to try to be on the technology train, as abstract as that sounds. Oh my God, I'm doing a really big weave.

3. The Perpification of Everything

Jonah Van Bourg

No, I mean, this is good, but I want to bring you back to a point for a second, because now it's not abstract at all. Now you've built a company.

Kaledora Kiernan-Linn

Yes.

Jonah Van Bourg

And I think the specific sentence was, “Postmodern investing is happening on Ostium now.”

Kaledora Kiernan-Linn

Yeah, I tweeted that today.

Jonah Van Bourg

You tweeted that today. And it is the gateway to gold markets. It's happening now. You guys are driving significant volume through your platform based on this original core thesis of the perpification of everything, right?

I think our listeners are very familiar with Hyperliquid and what's happening on Hyperliquid. But maybe you can talk about what is happening right now on Ostium and what you're super excited about here, because your now-abstract thesis is happening in real time. Maybe talk us through a little bit about that.

Kaledora Kiernan-Linn

I'll make the abstract thesis more concrete. We thought that this paradigm shift in the markets was going to lead to 2 very direct consequences in how consumer behavior would change and how people would start relating to the markets. The first one was that we thought people were going to start trading events.

And not just the first-order effect of events, but the second-order effect. Obviously, there's been a rise of prediction markets, but we think that prediction markets are almost a gateway drug, or they're a supercharger for this second-order effect of trading events.

Traditionally, this was the realm of institutions. Someone might think, “Maybe this geopolitical thing will happen, or maybe Fed policy will change in some way. How does that affect how I should trade rates based on that?” That wasn't consumer behavior. People might have been looking at single-name stocks, but now Twitter is full of people speculating on what's going to happen with the Strait of Hormuz and, as a result, trading the spread between Brent and WTI or just going directional on WTI. That's not stuff people did at all 5 years ago. That was not the realm of consumer trading.

The reason we thought that would happen—and this is exactly the kind of thing we thought would happen—is because macro is now driving volatility. You have this big shift from internal asset-class dynamics driving volatility, with traders fundamentally chasing vol, to macro being the most interesting show on the road. I say macro news is the new reality TV. It's the most interesting thing out there, and it's what drives volatility. Everything is downstream of it, and the smaller internal asset-class dynamics pale in comparison to what's going on at the macro level.

We thought people would start trading based on events, not just first-order effects, but also second-order effects. We thought the next big impact, from a practical perspective of this big paradigm shift, was going to be that people would be cross-asset by default. My parlance at the time was, “The cross-asset trader of tomorrow is cross-asset by default.”

Rather than being segmented, in the first generation of consumer apps you had Coinbase built for crypto and Robinhood built for stocks. You had this segmentation because traders characterized themselves as, “I'm a crypto trader,” or, “I'm a stock trader.” You see this really in Bloomberg this morning: The headline was that crypto traders are now pivoting to being cross-asset. This is just the beginning of that trend, and the whole segmentation of traders into people focused on a single asset class is completely breaking down.

4. The Future of Trading

We thought there was no platform catering to this next generation of what I would call prosumer or protail. It's not long-tail, super-tiny consumer, and it's not institutional. It's this large segment of traders that we thought was going to be the fastest-growing segment: prosumer, protail, and cross-asset by default.

Someone would want to trade Bitcoin, gold, oil, and NVIDIA in the same day and in the same instrument. They wouldn't want to be segmented between platforms or between different instruments. They would want to trade those assets in a simple instrument that abstracted away some of the complexity of dated futures or options. Perps are, I think, very clearly the instrument for that.

This led us to the big thesis that everything was going to be perpified. We called this the perpification of everything. We tried to slot perpification into the verbiage as an alternative to tokenization. Everybody was talking about tokenization. When we first started the company, nobody was talking about any of this stuff. RWAs were a niche subsector of crypto, and then everybody was talking about tokenization.

But I think, really, where you see the shift in consumer behavior—and this is not just a crypto trend; this is a secular trend across all segments of traders—is that all these things are getting mushed together. This new generation of traders is cross-asset by default and wants a simple instrument that abstracts away the complexities of different instruments, whether they're dated futures or options.

On top of that, it has the transparency, instant settlement, and other benefits that people have come to expect a blockchain-based product can offer. You can move the assets on transparent rails—everything that stablecoins bring. That's the big-picture thesis. This is what Ostium was building for. This is the future Ostium was building for.

Avi Felman

No, no. I think that was really great. And I think this is something that our audience is definitely shifting toward right now. If you just look at this podcast or anything in what I now call entertainment finance—

Jonah Van Bourg

That's a really good tagline. That's a good one.

Avi Felman

There's a proliferation of shows that used to talk about just crypto, including ourselves. Jonah and I have both traded traditional assets before. We weren't just crypto traders, but we were in crypto because we felt that was where all the opportunity was. Then you fast-forward to today, and there's so much more opportunity outside of crypto.

I mean, macro trading 4 years ago wasn't nearly as interesting as macro trading today. When I was trading at GoldenTree in 2022 and 2023, the limit of my macro trading was paying attention to Fed meetings, trying to bet on economic data, and trying to bet on what the Fed was going to do. Now there's so much more.

I think part of that has to do with the election of Donald Trump. He's introducing a lot more volatility into the markets just via headlines, but I think part of that is just a natural increase in volatility in the state of the world. One question that I have for you is: What do you think that means for the future? What do you think that means for the markets today?

Are we going to have everybody trading their portfolio? Are people going to have to stop investing passively? Is there going to be too much volatility? Do you think that people might actually manage the vast majority of their portfolios on platforms like yours in the future?

Kaledora Kiernan-Linn

Okay, it's a really good question. I think you mentioned this at the beginning of the pod. I consider this the era of postmodern investing.

In the same way that a lot of the rise of tech was kind of like “revenge of the nerds”—it turns out, you were cool in high school, but now the nerds are on top—I think of what's happening in the markets right now, relative to Wall Street or whatever, as revenge of the super-online. Revenge of Twitter, revenge of 4chan. Now there's alpha in being really online. That was weird before, but now there's real alpha in it. I genuinely think there's real alpha in it.

When I see some of our traders, it's nuts. I really think, especially now, there are some Twitter accounts that, if you set up your agent to be hooked up to them, it trades programmatically based on some indication of pivotal news that will change sentiment.

The markets are now so momentum-driven and sentiment-driven because crypto and TradFi are converging. TradFi is behaving like crypto. It's so momentum-driven, so sentiment-driven, and so reflexive. If you're good at gauging sentiment and you understand viral loops, online culture, and the way information spreads on the internet because you grew up on the internet, I genuinely think you have an edge.

Avi Felman

I know our listeners are going to love to hear that, and I do 100% agree with you on that point. Everyone's kind of competing on similar levels now because if things are volatile, it's actually good for the small fish. If you have to change your opinion on a dime, it's better to manage $1 million than it is to manage $1 billion.

Kaledora Kiernan-Linn

100%.

Avi Felman

One other follow-up I have for you is: Are you seeing that play out on your platform? Are you getting a lot of small fish and retail traders on your platform trading? Who are the types of people trading on Ostium, I guess?

Kaledora Kiernan-Linn

That's a great question. Actually, no, it's not really—it depends on how you define small. We don't have a lot of big institutions, and we don't have a lot of really small traders.

What I would say we service uniquely well—or who we uniquely service well—is this one layer below pro: prosumer, pro-tail. Somebody who is moving significant size, but from their own portfolio. Or maybe they're a single-family office—small individuals, basically, who are managing a significant portfolio and are moving size, which is why they're using us.

I'll speak in a second to our architecture, because I think that'll be very interesting for your audience and actually quite important to understand the product. You mentioned competitors before: How do we fit into the competitive landscape? How does our product actually work?

Our user base is disproportionately skewed toward these single whales, these large traders who are moving size and, because they have enough size, execution really matters for them.

They're not just filling tiny orders at the top of the book. They want a place to express their views across all these different asset classes. I would describe them as being in their late 20s and early 30s. They grew up on the internet; they trust the internet more than they trust traditional institutions. I think that is really aligned with everything we've described. That's sort of our core user base, but they're not really tiny shrimps.

I don't think that's a permanent thing. We're obviously very early in the journey, and I think a lot of moving into a smaller user base depends on building out a massive consumer distribution arm, which is still—we're not there yet. Some of that is a path-dependent factor of how we've gotten our name out. But I think it's also largely a result of the product.

So, to speak to the product and where we sit in the stack, I think this is a very common misunderstanding about Ostium. We are not an exchange. We are not a DEX. I would analogize us to the broker layer if you're drawing a traditional market analogy. We don't have an order-matching function, and we don't have an order book.

The reason for this is that our core view is that, for this kind of trader that we're talking about, they want to trade the real market price. They see a price on TradingView—usually, they're looking at prices on TradingView—and they don't want to then go and open a trade. If you're trading gold, it's a $30 asset. I don't know what it is since the last price movements, but it's a gigantic asset. Obviously, there's tons of liquidity.

If you're trading on a venue where you're rebuilding liquidity from scratch, the order size that you could execute without impacting the book or having poor execution—if you were trading on a traditional broker, if you were trading the traditional markets—would be orders of magnitude larger than what you could get if you were trading on an exchange where the liquidity is being rebuilt from scratch. This is just a fact of physics: you're rebuilding liquidity from scratch.

Our view is that we want to offer people the best execution. Importantly, we don't think it makes a lot of sense, especially if you're catering to that user base, to try to rebuild that exchange liquidity from scratch. Instead, we think the bigger opportunity is in doing for global markets basically what stablecoins did for the dollar.

If you look at the most profitable companies in crypto—Circle and Tether—it's very simple what their business is. I would contrast them with Bitcoin maxis, right? Bitcoin maxis are like, "We're going to rebuild the fiat system from scratch." Stablecoins are like, "No, we're going to take the dollar that's in the existing system, where there's massive untapped global demand for it, and we're going to put it on-chain. We're going to make it transparent, instantly settleable, and traceable, and we're going to bring all the benefits of blockchain to the dollar."

In so doing, we're going to massively expand the scope of access to the dollar and bring in massive new demand for the dollar itself. I think our view is that the biggest opportunity in DeFi is not rebuilding the exchange stack from scratch, which is basically how everybody has approached trying to build out perps in crypto. It is taking these really liquid and highly functional existing markets that are working, massively extending their global reach, and bringing the instant-settlement and transparency benefits of what you would get on-chain.

So, more functionally, how does that work? We have the first architecture of its kind. At a very high level, we have 2 big pools of liquidity.

One is a liquidity pool that acts as—you can think of it as an intraday lending facility. I'll caveat all of this by saying there's a big upgrade coming very shortly, so everything I'm describing right now will be perfectly valid very shortly. We're just in this interim period. If you're watching this at any point in the future from when this is released, it'll be true.

Basically, there's 1 pool of liquidity that you can think of as an intraday settlement layer or an intraday lending facility. It is always a multiple of whatever the unrealized P&L of the trades is, and it's there to ensure this North Star: any trade can be instantly settled. If you want to close your position, take your money, and leave the platform, there's a pool of capital to always front you, allowing you to close your positions, and you can settle your debts—whatever your positive or negative P&L—instantly.

However, directional flows are hedged with a separate pool of capital in the underlying market. Once a day, there's a mark-to-market and a rebalancing on top of this layer that sits on top of the liquidity pool. So, there is directional hedging, or hedging of directional flows, but there's also this pool of capital that always ensures instant settlement.

The component that handles this hedging is plugged into a network of traditional market participants that compete for flow.

Jonah Van Bourg

This model seems like it might work for assets with large liquidity a little bit better than it works for assets with lower liquidity, right? Would you say that's accurate?

Kaledora Kiernan-Linn

I would say it would. It basically works better for everything, in the sense that it doesn't require anything. It depends on what you mean when you say lower liquidity: is there a market at all? We're not creating a new market for things. It's more that we're allowing people to tap into the real market liquidity of the world's most liquid markets.

I would even argue that if you have a slightly longer-tail market, like copper or something—obviously, copper is a big market—trying to rebuild the liquidity from scratch on something like gold, you probably have enough participants in crypto who might be willing to rebuild that. Obviously, if you're expecting to trade massive size that you could clear in the underlying gold market, you couldn't do that, but it would be more doable with something like copper.

The more long-tail the asset is, the tougher it is to fragment liquidity across a bunch of different order books.

Jonah Van Bourg

Right. I was thinking more along the lines of crypto assets that are maybe controlled by 1 or 2 market makers already. This format helps you launch larger-liquidity assets by working with market makers that already have deep liquidity, and it helps you bootstrap those markets a little bit faster than if you were launching a long tail of altcoins. It wouldn't really matter if you were using this architecture or not; you'd still have to contact the 1 or 2 market makers.

Kaledora Kiernan-Linn

Yeah, that's roughly correct.

5. Final Thoughts

Jonah Van Bourg

According to the stats, it seems like 80% of all of your volume comes from these RWAs anyway, which have established markets. We only have a few minutes here, so I want to get some things that I think our listeners will really appreciate out of this. Ostium has a bunch of trader data on the platform. What are some of your favorite ways of using that data to evaluate the market?

Kaledora Kiernan-Linn

This is a great question. We're working on something related to this. I love looking at the directional skews across different assets and seeing what kind of implied view people are expressing.

One really interesting piece of data is that our traders have been expressing a stagflation view since January. They've been very early to this view, I would say. Since January—and I think, oh my God, I don't want to misquote, but I think it accelerated in the last week of January especially—our traders have been extremely net long oil, net long gold, and lightly short S&P, which is a stagflation trade.

On almost all retail platforms, you want to go against them. But I guess this is pro-tail, as you said. It really depends on the trader. Obviously, there are really wild P&L swings because they're such big traders, but in aggregate, our traders are actually quite good.

Jonah Van Bourg

That's awesome. One other question: do you have a favorite book on markets, psychology, or trading in general that you would advocate our listeners pick up?

Kaledora Kiernan-Linn

Oof. Oh man. I wasn't prepared for this question. You know what? I'm going to defend my normie stance. I'm going to say—[laughter]—I feel like people are going to hate me for this, but I would say it had the biggest broader-psychology impact. It's less about markets specifically and more about the big-picture dynamics that affect how paradigm shifts happen, or how to think about tail risk. I see it more as a philosophy book.

And as your listeners can probably infer from our discussion, I tend to operate from a really first-principles, high-level, top-down, philosophical perspective. So, yeah, I'll pick that.

Avi Felman

I think that's a great choice. And then the last thing I wanted to ask you is, if you guys don't know, Kaledora put out a great tweet on St. Patrick's Day about how St. Patrick was not actually Irish. He was Romano-British. Yeah, it shocked me immediately. Why do you know this? I guess that's one question. And then a follow-up is: I assume this means you're a student of history in some capacity. Do you feel like that's helped you navigate the markets?

Kaledora Kiernan-Linn

That's great. Yeah, so fun. I'll reiterate, for those who didn't see my tweet, the quick story of St. Patrick. The fun fact is that St. Patrick was actually not Irish, which is kind of ironic given that the Irish and the Brits are not always great friends, but he was Romano-British. He actually was enslaved by the Irish and treated terribly by them as a slave.

He escaped by having this crazy vision. He had this divine inspiration that there was going to be a boat in the middle of the night that was going to rescue him. He walked 200 miles to the shore, and there was a boat. The boat rescued him, and he wound up back in Britain. After a period of time, he had this kind of divine inspiration and thought it was his life's mission to convert the heathens who had enslaved him.

So he went back to Ireland and basically spent the rest of his life converting Ireland to Catholicism. He's basically almost entirely to thank for the fact that Ireland is, in fact, a Catholic country. So, that's the story of St. Patrick. There are also some weird, niche claims that he killed all the snakes in Ireland or something like that. I mean, I guess that's great for the Irish.

So how do I know this? I'm a nerd. I don't know—just weird, late-night rabbit holes, reading Wikipedia or talking to Claude about niche historical aspects.

And you asked me about being a student of history. Well, one fun fact I would toss out is that my dad is German, and he, I guess, grew up with a lot of family stories from East Germany, a lot of stories of hyperinflation. A very defining memory from my childhood is that his phone case was a custom-printed phone case featuring a 100 million Reichsmark note, which was the top denomination of the German currency during the Weimar Republic and hyperinflation.

So I grew up with a very anti-excess, money-printing, hyperinflation-fearing family and a very libertarian, Austrian-economics-leaning family. So that obviously shaped me.

Avi Felman

That's a great way to end it. It's in her blood to be in love with crypto. Yes, that's what she was born to do.

So, thank you. I really appreciate you coming on the podcast. I think our listeners are going to love this one. You've got some great stories and good insights, so thank you again. We really appreciate it.

Kaledora Kiernan-Linn

Thanks, Avi. Thanks for having me. This was fun.

为什么永续合约正在接管市场|Kaledora Kiernan-Linn — 文字稿与摘要 | BidClub