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Gradient Dissent · · 44 分钟

为什么 Anthropic、Meta 和 Tesla 都选择了同一个数据库|Aaron Katz,ClickHouse

Aaron KatzLukas Biewald

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TL;DR
  • ClickHouse 在创业公司正式成立前,就拥有多数初创企业要到更晚阶段才能获得的产品市场验证。 Alexey Milovidov 于2009年在 Yandex 内部为 PB 级流式分析搭建了 ClickHouse,2016年将其开源,企业当时已经开始把日志、指标和数仓工作负载迁移到这套数据库上。2021年8月,Katz 在“没有 pitch deck、没有产品、没有客户、没有收入”的情况下融资5000万美元种子轮/种子前轮,随后很快又融资2.5亿美元。
  • 它的商业护城河,既来自数据库性能,也来自分发设计。 ClickHouse Cloud 采用无服务器架构,并将算力与存储分离,以应对突发型工作负载;随后通过自助评估、免费迁移支持和工程师对工程师的 Slack 频道销售,目标是在“竞争对手甚至还没完成项目范围界定之前”就让客户上线。Katz 目前称云服务客户已超过3,000家,每月新增数百家。
  • Katz 认为,AI 的普及是在以极高速度重演 SaaS 历史。 Salesforce 的本地部署软件竞争者曾称云计算只是昙花一现;他预计,关于模型可靠性和企业数据共享的质疑将被证伪,并称 AI 的采用速度是20年前 SaaS 的“100倍”。
  • 投资逻辑是软件估值倍数下修,但基础设施需求仍具韧性。 Katz 不认为过去按远期收入定价的估值会回归;自由现金流和终值如今更重要,而数据库一旦在可靠性、持久性、安全性和可扩展性上达到基本门槛,就会像“卖铲子和铁锹”的基础设施一样,按价格和性能采购。他将 Datadog 和 Snowflake 与应用型 SaaS 区分开来,并指出 Databricks 收入已达40亿美元,其中数仓和 AI 工作负载的收入都超过10亿美元。
  • Agents 可能成为数据库的购买者和操作者,而不只是推荐层。 Claude 曾向 Anthropic 推荐 ClickHouse;一位欧洲金融科技公司 CEO 也告诉 Katz,他问过的每个 LLM 都给出了同样的建议。Katz 设想,Agents 将自动配置 ClickHouse 和 Postgres。托管版 Postgres 目前处于私有预览阶段,几个月后进入公开 Beta,年底前正式商用;Katz 称统一数据栈将成为“云上最快的 Postgres 服务”。
  • Datadog 面临界面层被去中介化的风险,但 Katz 认为其短期产品护城河被低估了。 Biewald 认为,Agent 用户和便捷的定制界面有利于客户直接使用 ClickHouse;Katz 认为这一逻辑成立,但在现实的1至3年周期内,Datadog 仍是高端且难以对付的产品。ClickHouse 自己也曾在尚未产生收入时为 Datadog 花费7位数美元,后来迁移离开时还引发内部“兵变”。
  • AI 正在扩大 ClickHouse 的运营目标,但没有放松数据库级别的控制。 公司计划今年将员工人数从约500人增至接近1,000人;未来6个月内,AI 辅助代码贡献占比将从目前估计的50%升至80%;Agents 则被用于承担类似 SDR 和 CSM 的工作。人工审核仍将保留,因为“快速行动、打破常规”不适用于数据库。
  • 平滑的外部增长曲线,掩盖了高度集中的执行风险。 核心团队在俄罗斯于2022年2月24日入侵乌克兰前约6周从莫斯科迁往阿姆斯特丹。Katz 后来说,他当时认为2亿美元托管在 U.S. Bank,另有1亿美元在 SVB 资产负债表上;他在 SVB 系统宕机前30分钟转走了这1亿美元,而剩余2亿美元的状态在72小时内都无法确定。可靠性是 P0 优先级;而资金充足的数仓和可观测性老牌厂商也已经“开始意识到这一威胁”。
摘要 · 为研究而整理的核心内容

1. ClickHouse Inc. 成立前,产品市场验证已经出现

  • Katz 将 ClickHouse 追溯到2009年。当时 Yandex 的 Alexey Milovidov 找不到一款现成数据库,能以所需性能摄取并存储 PB 级流式服务数据,于是他搭建了“点击流数据仓库”(clickstream data warehouse)。这套系统随后在 Yandex 内部扩散,运行7年后于2016年开源。

  • Katz 在上一家公司通过流失的工作负载接触到它:Uber 正将日志迁移至 ClickHouse,eBay 选择它承载大型指标项目,Disney、Comcast 和 Deutsche Bank 也在采用。2021年初,一位投资人把他介绍给 Yandex 管理层,对方问他是否有兴趣围绕一个已经吸引贡献者并产生实际用例的项目创业。

  • 由于 Yandex 是上市公司——Katz 回忆其市值约为300亿美元——剥离过程耗时9个月,IP 转移还涉及监管工作。他将项目创作者 Alexey、曾在 Netflix 和 Google 任职的 Yuri Izrailevsky 与自己组成团队;2021年8月,在 ZIRP 高峰期,他们在“没有 pitch deck、没有产品、没有客户、没有收入”的情况下融资5000万美元,随后又获得由 Coatue 和 Altimeter 领投的2.5亿美元。

2. 无服务器云与工程师主导的销售,将开源势能转化为商业增长

  • 产品路线非常明确:打造完全托管的 ClickHouse Cloud,采用无服务器架构,并将算力与存储分离,让突发型分析工作负载能够自动扩容、空闲时则释放资源。数千个团队已经在运行开源版本;50家设计合作伙伴则明确了让他们停止自行运维所需的条件。保留核心代码贡献者,有助于公司掌握产品路线图。

  • Katz 以 MongoDB Atlas 为参照,研究开源数据库如何成长为广泛的云平台;随后他将 Snowflake 高资本投入的企业销售引擎,与 Datadog 几乎没有摩擦的开发者采用路径作对比。他选择了后者,因为工程师应该能够自行“评估、部署、扩展”,甚至无需销售介入就进入生产环境。

  • 需要帮助时,ClickHouse 提供的是同行式讨论,而不是传统销售演示:公司会建立联合 Slack 频道,让顶尖工程师、Alexey 和核心贡献者直接参与。运营承诺是,在“竞争对手甚至还没完成项目范围界定之前”就帮助用户取得成功,包括协助客户从 Postgres、Snowflake 或 BigQuery 迁移,且不收取服务费。

  • Katz 目前称 ClickHouse Cloud 已拥有超过3,000家客户,“每月新增数百家”。最锋利的切入口是低延迟、面向客户的分析应用,例如 Weights & Biases 的 Weave;与此同时,数据库也覆盖数仓、可观测性、网络安全后端和点击流分析,市场空间虽大,却已挤满专业化竞争者。

3. AI 利好基础设施需求,同时重置软件估值倍数

  • Katz 的类比来自他在 Salesforce 工作的12年经历。他于2002年加入 Salesforce,此前经历了互联网泡沫破裂、MBA 申请失败,并在 Lake Tahoe 等待上桌服务。那时的传统厂商称云计算不安全、不可靠;如今他看到有人声称模型不可信、企业数据不能交给 LLM 服务商,认为这仍是同一种“把头埋进沙子里”的瘫痪。

  • 时间点才是差异所在:Salesforce 于2004年上市时只有少数几家企业客户,而 Katz 称 AI 的采用速度是20年前 SaaS 的“100倍”。他的判断是,当前这些质疑“如果还没有被证伪,也一定会被证伪”。

  • 在公开市场上,Katz 不认为过去按远期收入计算的估值倍数会回归;自由现金流动态和终值的重要性,已经超过市场此前假定的30%-50%年增长。他认为这轮抛售“有些过度”,将 Datadog 和 Snowflake 与应用型 SaaS 公司区分开来,并指出 Databricks 在40亿美元收入基础上重新加速,其中数仓和 AI 工作负载收入均超过10亿美元。

  • 分发方式也在变化:Anthropic 询问 Claude 应该使用什么基础设施,得到的答案是 ClickHouse;一位欧洲金融科技公司 CEO 则告诉 Katz,“我问过的每个 LLM”都推荐它。Katz 设想的终局是,Agents 自动配置 ClickHouse 和 Postgres;后者目前处于私有预览阶段,几个月后进入公开 Beta,年底前正式商用。他称统一数据栈将成为“云上最快的 Postgres 服务”。

4. Datadog 的界面护城河脆弱,但产品护城河真实存在

  • Biewald 的反驳值得保留:如果登录可观测性产品的是 Agents 而不是开发者,Datadog 精心设计的界面可能没那么重要;团队可以直接查询 ClickHouse,再生成定制界面。Katz 称这一观点“成立”,但认为3至5年的预测无法做出,同时保留了1至3年内 Datadog 仍是重要供应商的判断。

  • 这种防御来自亲身失败经历:Katz 之前的公司曾尝试搭建类似服务,但据他称并未成功。在 ClickHouse,Datadog 是在紧张上线周期下承载 APM、日志和指标的显然选择;随后业务“像野火一样增长”,直到公司在尚未产生收入时对 Datadog 的支出达到7位数美元,一度超过 ClickHouse 自身收入。

  • 替换 Datadog 引发了“几乎像发生了兵变”;Katz 把从开发者手里拿走 Datadog,比作从瘾君子手里夺走海洛因。这次迁移也是内部自用的必然要求:他说,ClickHouse 一边使用 Datadog,一边不可能宣称自己是有分量的可观测性供应商。ClickHouse 最终迁移到自有技术栈,并报告了成本节约和性能提升;但 Katz 仍预计 Datadog 能“挺过这一关”并赢得 AI 客户,只是无法恢复此前的估值倍数。

5. AI 扩大 ClickHouse 的招聘计划,同时减少交接环节

  • ClickHouse 目前约有500名员工,计划在今年结束时接近1,000人;AI 没有削减这一计划,如果工程师的生产力提高10倍,甚至“可能加速”招聘。Katz 从来不想要 SDR 或 CSM,认为这些交接笨拙且往往只是问题表象;Agents 则可以负责筛选线索、创造需求,并提供结合上下文的产品帮助。

  • 在产品侧,自然语言请求可以从实时数据生成分地区收入图表,或生成乐观、悲观和现实情景。Katz 描述了自己的使用方式:通过 ClickHouse 去年收购的开源聊天界面 LibreChat,结合 InfluxDB 模型和 ClickHouse 的 MCP server。在工程侧,他估计目前50%的代码贡献由 AI 辅助完成,预计6个月内升至80%;但人工审核仍是标准流程,因为“快速行动、打破常规”不适用于数据库。

6. 高速增长曲线已经遭遇地缘政治、银行与可靠性冲击

  • Katz 对 Yandex 剥离提出的条件是与俄罗斯没有任何联系,包括不能在俄罗斯网络上写代码。2022年1月,他说服 Alexey 在莫斯科的团队迁往阿姆斯特丹;约6周后,俄罗斯于2月24日入侵乌克兰,公司不得不在处理与 Yandex 的关系的同时,支持那些离开家园且未能回去的工程师。

  • 流动性危机更加尖锐:Katz 曾将3亿美元存放在 Silicon Valley Bank。他相当确定其中2亿美元托管在 U.S. Bank,SVB 仍负责资产管理,但无法确认这一点;他认为另有1亿美元在 SVB 资产负债表上。于是他将这1亿美元转往荷兰,资金成功到账;30分钟后,Katz 称 SVB 的银行系统宕机。

  • 政府最终提供的兜底,并没有抹去剩余2亿美元在72小时内状态不明的经历。Katz 也不认为服务发展一路完美:期间确实出现过问题,但“没有造成灾难性后果”;而将安全性、可靠性和持久性设为 P0 优先级,需要工程团队不眠不休,因为面向客户的产品等于“把整个公司押在我们的服务上”。

  • 下一场考验来自竞争。在数仓领域,他点名 Snowflake、BigQuery、Redshift,以及日益强大的 Databricks;在可观测性领域,则包括 Datadog、Grafana 和 Elastic。Katz 认为 ClickHouse 是实时分析市场的领导者,并以 Vercel、Lovable、Sierra、Decagon、Ramp、Klaviyo、Attentive、Weights & Biases 和 LangChain 的面向客户应用为例;他说,竞争对手如今已经“开始意识到这一威胁”。

Lukas Biewald

All right. Well, Aaron, when we first met, you told me the story of ClickHouse and how you got involved. I remember it was one of the most fascinating stories of the genesis of any startup. Tell me the whole story.

Aaron Katz

I remember you and I first met down in Santa Barbara, and we went on a walk along the beach. We told each other our respective founding stories. It feels like that was yesterday, but I think it was probably 4 years ago.

ClickHouse was developed by one of my co-founders, Alexey Milovidov, when he was working at Yandex. He was looking for a database that would be able to ingest and store petabytes of streaming data from Yandex’s various services for web analytics. Nothing off the shelf was able to scale and provide the performance that was needed, so he developed ClickHouse.

It’s short for clickstream data warehouse. He was thinking about the data warehouse use case back in 2009 when he developed the database. It took off inside Yandex for a variety of different use cases, and he had the courage to convince the Yandex leadership team to open-source it in 2016.

Seven years later, they had formed a team around ClickHouse. It was one of the fastest-growing databases after it was open-sourced in terms of the number of contributors and the number of contributions, and it still is.

That’s when I first discovered it. When I was at a previous company, we started to bump into ClickHouse in the market. We actually started to lose a lot of observability workloads specifically to ClickHouse. Uber was migrating its logging infrastructure to ClickHouse. We lost a big metrics project at eBay. Disney, Comcast, Deutsche Bank, and others were moving to it.

It was on my radar, but there were a lot of popular open-source OLAP engines at the time. Again, this was 10 years ago. During COVID, I stepped out and started thinking about what I was going to do next, and an investor asked if I’d be interested in talking to the Yandex leadership team about ClickHouse. I jumped on it.

This was early 2021. In the thick of COVID, everything was done virtually at the time. I met the Yandex leadership team and Alexey, and they said, “We realize that ClickHouse is very popular, and we think that it’s got a lot of potential. We’d be curious to know if you were interested in doing something with it.”

1. Building ClickHouse Cloud & Raising $300M

I said, “Absolutely. I would love to partner with Alexey and form a company around it. It’s going to have to look and smell like a Silicon Valley startup, with a venture-backed Delaware corporation. I think we could really unleash the potential of this technology by building a fully managed service—a serverless offering with compute-storage separation that could automatically scale and idle, because these analytical workloads are very bursty.

“We could take a lot of these companies that are running this technology themselves, either in the cloud or on-premises, and give them all of these amazing benefits of a hosted offering called ClickHouse Cloud.”

I reached out to 2 venture capitalists I’d known in the industry: Mike Volpi, who at the time was at Index Ventures, and Peter Fenton at Benchmark. In the world of open-source infrastructure, Lukas, as you know better than anyone, there’s really a handful of investors who you’d want to partner with—people who have experience with these business models and understand all of the nuances around open source.

It took us about 9 months to pull off because, at the time, Yandex was a publicly traded company with, I think, a $30 billion market cap. When you take intellectual property out of a public company, it comes with a lot of regulatory concern and consideration. There were a lot of lawyers involved, as you could imagine.

I convinced an executive at Google named Yuri Izrailevsky. I’d met Yuri when he was at Netflix, where he ran platform engineering. At the time, they were AWS’s largest customer, I believe, and he really led their migration to the cloud. He’d been building distributed systems around open source for 20 years.

I convinced him, along with others, to leave Google and join Alexey and me to form the company. We had 3 co-founders: Yuri running product and engineering, Alexey as the creator of ClickHouse and our chief technology officer, and myself as the CEO.

We got it done in August 2021 with a $50 million seed round. Maybe it was even a pre-seed round—possibly the largest pre-seed round in the history of enterprise software. I didn’t have a pitch deck. We had no product, no customers, and no revenue. But it was the peak ZIRP period, and there was a lot of capital getting put to work.

We quickly followed it up with another $250 million round that was jointly led by Coatue, where you and I met, and Altimeter. There’s a lot more to the story, but that’s the origin story of ClickHouse Inc., the company. You’re looking at the headquarters here in Silicon Valley, and Alexey and his team are in Amsterdam. We’ve got a really strong engineering hub in the Netherlands.

We have over 3,000 customers on ClickHouse Cloud, we add hundreds every month.

Lukas Biewald

Where are we 5 years later from when we formed the company? When you were doing this initial pre-seed round, which was absolutely enormous at that time, people might not realize what an outlier it was. Pre-seeds have gotten astonishingly big in some AI sectors, but when that was happening, what gave you and your investors the confidence to do that if there was no revenue and not even a product launched yet?

Aaron Katz

We had thousands of companies using the open-source ClickHouse distribution for a wide array of use cases, from analyzing clickstream data to data warehousing to observability and as a cyber backend. I think Microsoft is on record that some of its largest analytical workloads run on ClickHouse, like Microsoft Titan and Microsoft Clarity. I mentioned some of the other companies that were migrating to ClickHouse.

We had a lot of conviction that the technology itself was highly differentiated to start with. I feel like we had a bit of a head start, frankly, compared with most startups, because we had this very feature-rich database and the core team of committers.

As you know, in open source, you can have hundreds or thousands of contributors, but to really control the roadmap and the direction of the project, you need to employ the committers. We’ve seen in the past what happens if an open-source company does not do that.

We felt like we had the right team: Yuri, having had such success building distributed systems around open-source databases; myself on the distribution side, having studied go-to-market for more than 20 years at companies like Salesforce and others. I felt like we had the right team assembled, and I think the investors agreed with that thesis.

We had a great group of companies as design partners early on. We had 50 companies that were using open-source ClickHouse saying, “These are the characteristics of a cloud service that would compel us to move from self-managing the database to a fully hosted service.”

We had a lot of input from early adopters of ClickHouse, and we saw a ton of market pull. As you know, because we cover such a broad surface area, there are a lot of competitive dynamics that we need to navigate.

On the data warehousing side, you’ve got Snowflake, Redshift, BigQuery, and so on. On observability, it’s a very crowded market, as you know. But ClickHouse really shines in terms of low-latency analytics that are customer-facing, like the Weights & Biases Weave product, which is built on ClickHouse Cloud.

And so, we felt like we had a huge TAM to go after. We had the right team to develop a differentiated service, and many of us had been part of open-source companies in the past. So, we had the unfortunate experience of knowing what to avoid, because getting it right with open source, as you know, is very tricky. Only a handful of companies have been able to achieve it. And that's why we prioritized this cloud service before everything else.

2. Growing Up Around Xerox PARC

Lukas Biewald

I actually wanted to ask you. I saw that your father worked at Xerox PARC in the really early days of Silicon Valley, I believe. I wonder how growing up in that environment might have shaped your perspective on technology.

Aaron Katz

Well, he worked initially at Xerox out of college in the '60s, selling copy machines in the Bay Area. I think his largest customer was Stanford University. This was when Xerox and IBM were widely recognized as the most innovative technology companies in the world at the time.

He then went to Xerox Document Systems, which was co-located at PARC. For those listening, PARC stands for Palo Alto Research Center, and it's where a lot of the innovations that we use every day were created and invented. Things like the graphical user interface and the concept of the mouse. It was just revolutionary.

So, I was a kid, Lukas. Honestly, I just turned 50 yesterday. I was born in '76, so we're talking about the mid-'80s, when my dad was working at Xerox Document Systems—maybe the late '80s. Obviously, I wasn't paying too much attention to it all.

I think there's the benefit of just osmosis and being around it. But I do remember going to PARC with my dad and sitting in his office, doing homework, reading a book, doing LEGOs, or God knows what. I think just being around it and seeing the energy was very appealing to me.

So, before I even started college, when I went to UC Davis, it was clear to me that I was going to go into technology. I grew up around it. I saw the lifestyle that it provided. I saw the joy that my dad got by building and leading teams, securing a customer win, or helping a customer solve a problem.

I don't know. For me, it was just the same way that if you grow up and your mother or your father is a doctor, there's probably a decent chance that may be a path you pursue because you're just around it. You live in it.

3. Salesforce, Mark Benioff & the Dot-Com Bust

Lukas Biewald

Totally. And then you went to Salesforce, I think, in the first dot-com bubble era. I was wondering if that shaped you, and if seeing that big bubble gives you a perspective on the possible AI bubble that we're in now.

Aaron Katz

Of course it shaped me. It was transformational. The 12 years I spent at Salesforce were so pivotal in my life for so many different reasons.

The other reason I went to Salesforce back in early 2002—24 years ago—was because I didn't get into business school. The plan was to go get my MBA. Coming out of the dot-com bust in '01 and early '02, I applied to a handful of what many would perceive to be elite business schools: Harvard, Stanford, and so on. I didn't get into any of them. I got waitlisted at MIT Sloan.

So, I was unemployed because the startup that I was working at had failed, and I was living up in Lake Tahoe, waiting tables. I needed a job, frankly. So, I came back to San Francisco, and I was able to navigate the interview process to meet with Marc Benioff.

I remember that interview vividly because he asked me one question. He said, “Why should I hire you?” Somehow, I convinced him that it was a good decision. At the time, it was a 150-person startup.

Lukas Biewald

How did you answer that question? I've got to know.

Aaron Katz

I said, “Because I'm going to outwork and be better than everyone else, and I'm going to be your top-performing sales engineer.” I was a sales engineer, which now people call solution architects. Maybe they call them forward-deployed engineers. I don't know, but you get it: technical pre-sales.

I said, “I'm going to work harder, I'm going to be smarter, and I'm going to out-execute my peers.” I knew that he was very competitive because he was a disciple of Larry Ellison at Oracle. So, I knew that he would respond favorably to somebody who had a competitive mindset.

I'd gone through the gauntlet of interviews to get to him, so I suspect I wouldn't have gotten to him if the team didn't think I was going to be a good hire.

Nevertheless, how does that correlate to the AI bubble that we're in today? I do think there are a lot of parallels.

Salesforce—software as a service was not a new thing. It had been tried and failed during the dot-com bust. But Salesforce was the one that made it a reality, created the category, and spawned so many other companies: ServiceNow, Workday, and we could go on and on.

4. Cloud Skeptics vs. AI Skeptics | History Repeating

At the time, if you recall, our competitors—Siebel, SAP, Oracle, and Microsoft—were basically on record saying, “Cloud computing is a fad. No one's going to move their customer data to the cloud. It's not secure. It's not reliable. It's not durable.”

We were on this mission to create this category and refute all of these baseless claims that it wasn't going to work, that all software was going to be run in data centers on-premises.

If you apply that to the current AI themes, people say, “We're never going to realize superintelligence. AI models are unpredictable. You cannot trust them. You don't want to send your enterprise data to an LLM provider because it's your competitive edge.” All these things are going to be debunked, if they haven't been already.

We're all going to be using AI the same way that we use cloud services every day. Even in large, regulated industries, they're still using cloud services in their companies.

I see AI as no different from the early skeptics or incumbents who have their heads in the sand. They just don't want to accept reality—the same way that Siebel didn't want to accept the reality that their core business was, frankly, in decline. They ultimately got acquired by Oracle.

It was a good company. Salesforce replicated a lot of the Siebel feature set from a CRM standpoint. But there was this paralysis that set in, where they were unwilling to accept that cloud computing was going to be the way enterprise software was delivered in the future.

I think you can either accept the reality that we're all going to be using AI models much more than we are today, in a much shorter period of time. It's not going to take 20 years. It took us—I joined in '02, and the company went public in '04. We still only had a handful of enterprise customers when Salesforce went public.

AI is getting adopted 100 times faster than software as a service was 20 years ago.

5. Building a Modern Go-To-Market Playbook

Lukas Biewald

When you were creating the go-to-market motion for ClickHouse, it seems like you built it in a really modern way. One of the things that I really admired about ClickHouse is that when we bought it at Weights & Biases, it felt like you met us where we were at. It felt like a very technical sale to a technical audience.

There wasn't a lot of pomp and circumstance. Nobody was asking us to go play golf or get dinner. It was just fixing our problems, getting us up and running, waiting to charge us until we were up and running, and being incredibly effective at giving us timely technical support. I really admired that. I went to my team and said, “We have to learn from this ClickHouse team.”

It's interesting to learn about your background. You have this—you’re probably deeper in Silicon Valley go-to-market motions than anyone. Your dad was doing it in the '80s. What do you think you took from that early experience with Salesforce and before that? And what did you leave behind as you were building out the ClickHouse go-to-market team and motion?

Aaron Katz

Well, when I was starting the company, as I mentioned, the strategy was going to be to take this very popular open-source database and build a managed service. I looked at the other open-source companies at the time that had gone down this path. From where I sat, MongoDB was the best of the bunch with its Atlas service. It was a broad database platform that satisfied a lot of different use cases, so that was the first design principle.

But that doesn't mean that you're going to be successful in building a service that distributes itself to a highly technical audience. So, I looked at the next 2 proprietary infrastructure companies at the time, Datadog and Snowflake, and how they went to market.

They were very different. They were both very successful, but through different means. Datadog built an offering that a developer could evaluate, deploy, and scale in a frictionless way. People call it PLG now, as if it's some sort of new thing. At Salesforce, 20-plus years ago, we had a free trial. Was that PLG? Of course.

But in terms of infrastructure, the goal was to develop a service that you or another engineer could stand up, evaluate, test, and even push into production without ever talking to someone in sales. And if they needed to talk to someone in sales, they weren't going to talk to a salesperson. They were going to talk to an engineer because they wanted a peer discussion.

Nobody wants to be sold to. People like buying things, but nobody likes being sold to.

Snowflake, by comparison, invested heavily in sales and marketing, targeting the enterprise buyer. They were very successful in doing so. It took them a lot longer, and it required a lot more capital.

I just thought the Datadog path was going to be a lot easier, frankly, and offer a faster time to market. That was the design principle behind ClickHouse Cloud.

When somebody like you, or somebody at LangChain, Vercel, Lovable, Decagon, Sierra, Anthropic, OpenAI, or anybody else using ClickHouse wanted help, they weren't going to get sold to. We were going to establish a joint Slack channel with our top engineers, including Alexey and our committers, and make them successful in such a short period of time that they would be in production before our competitors had even scoped the project.

We weren't going to charge for migration services. Let's say you're migrating off of Postgres, Snowflake, or BigQuery. We were going to help you do that without any investment of capital on your part. You were investing your time to evaluate our service, and we were going to make you successful as soon as we possibly could. That was the spirit, and 4 years later, it still seems to be working.

6. The SaaS Crash, Agents & the Future of Infrastructure

Lukas Biewald

Another topic that I love to ask you about is the SaaS apocalypse, or the cratering of SaaS company valuations, which on one side seems very extreme and has hurt a lot of good friends of mine. On the other hand, even at Weights & Biases, we see more of our customers engaging with our products like a database, using agents to log into our software instead of humans. I'm curious where you stand on that.

Aaron Katz

One of the few benefits of age is experience. I've been through a lot of cycles in our industry, from 9/11 to the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 to the SaaS sell-off during COVID.

This is significant. I don't think we're going to get back to the multiples that people have enjoyed in the past, so I think this is a new normal in terms of what companies are going to trade at. I think it's a little overblown, and I think there are companies like Datadog and Snowflake that are being incorrectly associated with SaaS companies like Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Workday. I think they're very different.

I do think valuations go up and down. I try to tell our employees that all the time. I've seen companies where employees get so fixated on the stock value, valuation, and stock price that they get drunk on it, and the hangover is rough when all of a sudden the valuation gets cut in half. You've got to have a long view.

Not everything is always up and to the right. It's been great for ClickHouse over the last 4 years, but we will be tested and tried like every great company over the course of decades. That's the time horizon you have to have in mind.

I do think serving at the infrastructure layer is a very good place to be right now. If you simplified it, it's picks and shovels for the gold rush. Everyone's going to need a database, and what are the characteristics of that database? It always comes down to price and performance.

Obviously, when you have a hosted service, reliability is P0, along with durability, security, scalability, and all those things. But when somebody makes the purchasing decision, it's going to come down to price and performance, assuming everything else is table stakes.

I don't think we're going to get back to the levels that we all enjoyed in the past from a multiple basis—you can just call it a multiple on forward revenue. I think these companies are being valued on their free cash flow dynamics more so today than they ever have been in the past, and on the terminal value of the company in the future, more so than simply expecting that these companies are going to generate 30% to 50% year-over-year growth.

I think it's a really good opportunity for companies like ours that are well-capitalized and private, and we're seeing that with Databricks, for example. They're reaccelerating growth on a $4 billion revenue base across a variety of different product lines. I think their data warehousing product offering has passed $1 billion of revenue. Their AI-related workloads are now over $1 billion of revenue, and they're accelerating growth.

I think Databricks, ClickHouse, and companies that are designing for agents, not humans, are going to get a lot of lift over the next number of years. I'm thinking about a world where these agents are actually selecting and provisioning the infrastructure behind an application.

Anthropic presented at our user conference last year with you, Lukas, when you were on stage talking about why you chose ClickHouse. Anthropic, OpenAI, and Tesla were also on stage presenting. Anthropic asked Claude at the time what they should be using for a specific use case, and Claude suggested ClickHouse.

I was talking to the CEO of one of the largest fintech companies in Europe a few weeks ago, and he said, “Every LLM I ask what I should be using to replatform our company suggests ClickHouse.”

That's great, but it still requires a human to make that request. I'm thinking about a world where these agents are actually selecting and provisioning the infrastructure behind an application. You say, “Build me an application that needs to observe telemetry,” and it's going to go and not just recommend ClickHouse, but provision a service and stand up the stack.

It's going to have not only an analytical database, but transactions that need to be stored. It's going to provision a Postgres service. We're developing a managed Postgres service like many others, but we've been thinking about this for years. It's in private preview today, it'll be in public beta in a few months, and it'll be generally available by the end of the year.

We're going to have this unified data stack where you can have both an analytical workload running on ClickHouse and a transactional experience built on Postgres. It's not going to be yet another managed Postgres service. It's going to be the world's fastest Postgres service in the cloud.

7. The Datadog Love-Hate Story

Lukas Biewald

But I guess when I look at Datadog, I'm also a fan. I've been a fan for a long time, and I admire the team over there. But that seems like a harder position, honestly, doesn't it?

They sit at this layer where developers love them because developers are logging in and enjoying the thoughtful interfaces they've built. But if it's mostly agents logging in, that seems like a massive disruption to their business model.

I do see more and more people just using ClickHouse directly as their observability layer rather than going through something like Datadog. Now you can easily build these custom interfaces for your particular application.

Aaron Katz

I think that's a valid way to look at it. As you know, it's impossible to look out 3 to 5 years right now in our industry. It's changing faster than I've ever experienced in my career.

If you look at a 1- to 3-year time horizon, which is really the only realistic outlook, you can see Datadog still being a very meaningful supplier in the industry. It's such a premium product. People really underestimate how difficult it is to compete with Datadog and develop a comparable service.

We tried at my previous company, and I would not say we were successful. I think we have a reasonable view on how formidable a competitor Datadog is and how high-quality a product it is.

I'll give you an example. Lukas, we used Datadog internally in the past. When we were developing our service, it was the obvious choice because we had this incredibly compressed time frame to launch ClickHouse Cloud. Standing up a Datadog service for APM, logging, and metrics was the obvious choice.

It grew like wildfire, as it does in many companies. All of a sudden, I was spending 7 figures on Datadog before I had any revenue. There was a period when I was spending more on Datadog than I was generating in revenue as a company.

We also knew that you could use ClickHouse for observability, as you just mentioned. We didn't have HyperDX yet, so you had to rely on something like Grafana, which is another great product and an alternative to Datadog.

We went to the company—we were about 100 people at the time, and we're now about 500—and said, “We have to migrate off Datadog. We have to use our own technology.”

The concept of dogfooding, or drinking your own champagne, whatever you want to call it, is really important. We can't say that we're a meaningful supplier in observability if we don't even use our own technology.

It was almost like we had a mutiny in the company. Our developers said, “You can't take Datadog away from me.” It was like I was taking heroin away from a drug addict. They said, “You can't take my Datadog.” I said, “We have to migrate off Datadog. There's no question that we need to do this. It's just a function of how quickly.”

It took us longer than I would have liked, but eventually we achieved it. We published a blog about what life is like on the other side of Datadog in terms of the cost savings and performance improvements that we received.

I would encourage anybody who's considering evaluating ClickHouse as an alternative to read it. It's deeply technical and provides a bit of a framework for how to go through that process.

I see Datadog being a very meaningful supplier. You saw their recent quarterly results and some of the big wins they were able to secure at leading AI companies, so I do think they're going to survive this and come out on the other side successfully.

But again, like many companies, I don't think they're going to trade at the same multiple they have in the past.

Lukas Biewald

Are you feeling an impact of AI on your hiring plans, both on the engineering side, where we're seeing a lot of automation, and on the go-to-market side, where I feel like there's early energy around automation and it seems to have slowed down, at least at this moment in history in 2026?

Aaron Katz

Yes and no. No, in the sense that we're 500 employees today, and we're going to end this year closer to 1,000. So we're going to double the size of the company in 12 months. That headcount plan has not come down as a result of AI. If anything, it may accelerate, because our engineers are going to be 10 times more productive by embracing AI applications to make themselves and their peers more successful and to develop code at a much faster pace.

There are functions in the company that we are automating that we didn't even have beforehand. For example, the concept of an SDR: when I started the company, I said we were never going to have SDRs, or CSMs, because I think it's clumsy, and I think they're functions that mask other issues around product quality and sales efficacy. I always think about the customer's experience and what it's like to be handed off from a junior inside sales rep to a quota-carrying rep to a renewals manager who's described as a customer success manager, and so on.

But I think we can deploy AI agents that can serve a lot of those functions around lead qualification and demand generation, as well as enhancing the customer experience by giving customers the information they need at that point in time, providing contextual help in the product, AI assistants, and so on. The ability to query your data using a natural-language interface through just a text prompt—for example, to say, "Hey, build me a stacked bar chart that shows revenue growth over the last 12 months and break it down by region"—means I don't need to go to a data analyst anymore and have that individual create that chart.

I can just ask LibreChat, which is an open-source chat interface that we acquired last year and are integrating with InfluxDB's model and our MCP server into a ClickHouse Cloud service. Lukas, I would highly encourage you to check this out for your own implementation of ClickHouse, where you can query your production data in real time and do ad hoc analysis. You can do situational-awareness planning and scenario planning. You can say, "Build me 3 different possible outcomes: optimistic, pessimistic, and realistic," and it will query your data. The insights you're able to get from it are staggering.

That's how we are using AI internally and how we're building it into the product itself, which we've been thinking about basically since before ChatGPT. But it's not having a negative impact on headcount, to answer your question.

Lukas Biewald

How is it affecting your engineering roadmaps? I feel like infrastructure is the place where AI engineering has had the slowest adoption. Do you allow, for example, AIs to automatically submit code into your codebase?

Aaron Katz

There is typically a human review of code that goes into the codebase. You have to remember, we're building a database. We're not building a mobile app over the weekend, like a dating app. "Move fast and break things" doesn't apply to a database. If we don't have a highly reliable, durable, and secure service, then we don't have a company, because our customers won't trust us.

It's a little bit different when you're developing this type of mission-critical application to blindly commit code that an agent developed without some sort of human review. But the amount of contributions and commits to the codebase that are AI-assisted is significant and is growing every day. I would anticipate that if that number is 50% today, within 6 months it will be 80%.

Lukas Biewald

Here's a question I've been wanting to ask you. You've been having what looks like an incredibly charmed run. But as I've gotten closer to CEOs who look like they're on this hockey-stick run, I've always found that there are tough things internally, these kinds of "oh" moments. I wanted to hear from you: what's been the biggest challenge or the scariest moment in the life cycle of ClickHouse so far?

Aaron Katz

It hasn't been a straight line. I'll start there. It may have been from the outside looking in.

Lukas Biewald

It looks like a straight line from the outside, Aaron, I have to tell you.

Aaron Katz

Yandex is commonly referred to as the Google of Russia, which back in 2021 was not a bad moniker. It's not a great one today. A condition of forming the company was that I had no ties to Russia. I didn't have the foresight that Russia was going to invade Ukraine, but I knew enough to understand that they were going to be developing a cloud service, and I couldn't have engineers coding on a Russian network. I couldn't have anybody in Russia.

So I convinced Alexey and the team to move from Moscow to Amsterdam. That was not an easy achievement, convincing these engineers to pick up their lives and relocate to a new country. Then Russia invaded Ukraine a month later. They moved in January of 2022, and Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022—6 weeks after they moved.

We then had this association and relationship with Yandex that we needed to untangle. That was not an easy process. We celebrate the heritage of the software and the genius of Alexey, Sasha, Nikolai, Nikita, Ksenia, and these incredible engineers who are still in our company. But we also sympathize with the fact that they basically had to leave their home country and relocate and have not gone back. Culturally, that was very challenging.

I then put $300 million with Silicon Valley Bank and got a call that Silicon Valley Bank was going to default and I was going to lose all my money. I said, "Oh, shit." I'm pretty sure $200 million of that was off its balance sheet and being custodied at U.S. Bank. I'm not entirely sure, but I'm pretty sure, because Silicon Valley Bank was still the asset manager. But nobody could give me a clear answer on that Thursday.

I had a high degree of confidence that $200 million of the $300 million was not at risk, but there was $100 million that was on their balance sheet. I had this SWAT team—myself, my head of finance, and my general counsel—trying to figure out, like the rest of the industry, what the fuck should we do? Should we just wait it out and hope that they don't default and we don't lose $100 million, or do we contribute to a bank run and wire the money somewhere?

Fortunately, we had banking relationships set up in Europe, which many startups didn't. They didn't have a path out, so founders were wiring themselves money, which is not a great look. I made the decision mid-morning that Thursday. I called my head of Europe, Arno, and said, "Wake up the bankers at our bank in the Netherlands, because there's a $100 million wire that's coming through in the next 30 minutes, and it needs to clear because I think there's going to be a massive run and the system's going to freeze."

8. The Origin Story: From Yandex to ClickHouse Inc.

We got the $100 million out. I called a friend of mine at Silicon Valley Bank and said, "Man, I'm sorry. I have to do what's best for my company, my employees, and our customers, and I can't afford to lose this money." We wired $100 million, and it cleared. Thirty minutes later, SVB's banking system went down, and people could not get their money out.

The government ended up backstopping SVB on Sunday, as we all know, but there were 72 hours when nobody could tell me whether or not the remaining $200 million was safe. So that was a little bit of a tricky time.

As you know, being a longtime ClickHouse Cloud customer, these services have issues. We haven't had anything catastrophic, but around reliability and durability, we've had to turn inward and ask, "Are we doing everything that we can to make this the most resilient service in the market?" That has not been a straight line.

I love where we are today in our security posture and our reliability and durability, but it's not like you just wake up and have the most secure, durable database service. It requires a lot of sleepless nights and a lot of engineering work to make sure that you're protecting your customers' data and making the service available, especially for Weights & Biases. You're building a customer-facing application on it. You're betting your company on our service. There's a lot of responsibility that goes with that.

I've been very fortunate with the team that we've assembled. For the most part, my leadership team is intact from when I formed it, when we established the company, and we've added to it. So that's been a total joy.

Those would be some of the trickier things that we've had to navigate in terms of company building, I would say. We've also, like Weights & Biases, got great investors. We've added to the roster, so we're well capitalized. But I don't think our company has really been tested in terms of how strong our resolve is, and it's going to come, because the competition is waking up to the threat that we pose. They're not just going to lie down and accept that ClickHouse is going to capture this market. These are very well-organized, very well-capitalized companies with incredible leadership.

Lukas Biewald

Who do you see as waking up and coming after you?

Aaron Katz

It depends on the use case. Let's talk about data warehousing. Who are the big suppliers in that market? Snowflake is obvious. Google BigQuery is a great product with a big customer base that we would love to eat into. Amazon Redshift. Increasingly, while we partner very well with Databricks, we do see some competitive overlap. Those 4—let's start there.

With observability, I mentioned Datadog, where there is some competitive overlap. I mentioned Grafana and Elastic. Again, these are great companies with a very strong customer base, a lot of capital, and very capable teams.

I feel like, in terms of real-time analytics, which is what ClickHouse was originally designed for, we are the market leader in that category. Whether it's Vercel, Lovable, Sierra, Decagon, Ramp, Vantage, Klaviyo, or Attentive, you name it, these are customer-facing B2B SaaS applications. Weights & Biases and LangChain are also customer-facing B2B SaaS applications, and I don't think there's a strong alternative to ClickHouse for those use cases.

9. Hardest Moments: Russia, SVB & Sleepless Nights

All right, let's have a good spot to end. Thanks.

Lukas Biewald

Thanks, Aaron. Fun interview.

10. Outro

Aaron Katz

All right. That was good. Awesome.