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Thread Guy · · 78 分钟

TJR:交易建议、动力、加密货币/迷因币及更多 | TG Podcast

TJRThread Guy

加密股票消费投资企业经营
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TL;DR
  • TJR表示,他最大的优势是少做交易:交易次数最少的月份往往赚得最多,而大约交易15天通常让他不赚不赔甚至亏损。 他可能忍过两周或整整一个月的价格波动,再出手做一笔高确信度交易;做指数日内交易时,他把自己限制在纽约开盘后的2小时窗口内:「要么价格给出我的交易形态,我就交易;要么价格没有给出形态,我就不交易。」

  • 在比特币约11万-11.5万美元附近转为看空、并在12万-12.5万美元附近保持谨慎后,TJR在约10.1万美元的位置投入了数十万美元现货资金,并明确拒绝杠杆。 他的押注刻意没那么英雄主义:一项市值较高的资产下跌约20%后买入并持有,等它反弹20%,就能带来可观的美元收益。「我想赚的是小比例涨幅」,而不是在单笔杠杆交易中冒着亏掉5万-10万美元的风险。

  • 2025年失败的「山寨季」让TJR从一名活跃的加密交易者变成了自称的比特币极大主义者,专门买入大幅回调。 他说自己「所有东西都被打爆了」,而Thread Guy指出,Hyperliquid、Aster和Zcash的精准择时交易确实带来了回报,但盲目持有一篮子山寨币的表现跑输BTC。如今TJR更偏好股票、指数、期货、私募项目和比特币,因为「我没理由再去玩那种疯狂的波动游戏」。

  • TJR最突出的一笔交易,是9月17日FOMC带来的42.6万美元收益;他不是单纯预测新闻,而是反向交易压倒性看多的市场共识。 他结合了Polymarket对降息25个基点的预期、5家大型科技公司的财报以及潜在的美中贸易协议,再叠加流动性位置;消息推动价格扫过关键价位后,他等待确认,再把目标设在相反方向的流动性上。「你要反着散户交易,因为他们就是蠢蛋。」

  • 他最深刻的风险教训,来自2天内把1万美元变成11.2万美元、随后一天靠最大杠杆全部亏光。 这次亏损让他停交易3个月,迫使他修正风险管理;如今他公开记录入场以及日、周、月度盈亏,包括一条显示10月回撤约35万美元的帖子。当Thread Guy估算10月最终盈亏接近亏损30万美元时,TJR纠正为约亏损2万-2.5万美元,并另行表示自己在FOMC交易中赚了400美元和1,000美元。更重要的是,他披露自己过去曾尝试自杀,并警告:「没有任何金额值得你拿自己的生命去交换。」

  • TJR预计,「TradeFi」——金融与娱乐的融合——会让几乎一切都变得可交易,但他反对把不愿意交易的人强行拉进市场。 Thread Guy承认,拉家人入场加密货币「经不起时间检验」;TJR则引用98%的交易者最终失败这一说法,并对那些只被他收入吸引的人说:「如果你是为了钱才进来,那就别做。」Thread Guy还预测,在线课程经济会经历一轮淘汰,因为「每一秒都有人在做新课程」。

  • TJR正在打造金融权威与大众影响力的交叉地带,背后有超过100名承包商、8名每日参与核心运营的人,以及数千名剪辑师。 他不想只是另一名金融教育者,而是希望站在Iman Gadzhi/Alex Hormozi与Kai Cenat/Lacy之间,从而同时获得金融公司和大众品牌的议价能力。他给Thread Guy的建议也是同一套打法:保留加密原生核心,铺满YouTube、TikTok和Instagram,再让个人魅力扩大流量漏斗。

摘要 · 为研究而整理的核心内容

1. 一次个人重启,让他变成更有耐心的交易者

  • 自Thread Guy所说的上一次出镜——2024年12月——以来,TJR表示自己几乎改变了所有外在生活:搬了家,买了房,剪掉长发,减重约40磅,改善饮食,并清理掉不再适合自己的关系和习惯。「我就是想把一切都改变。」

  • 这次重启也延伸到了交易。TJR回忆,自己高中11年级时把市场当作「赌场」,想尽可能频繁地转动轮盘;经验让他明白,「少交易更好」,但真正执行这条规则,需要的纪律远多于口头认同。

  • 他的交易日志提供了证据:交易次数最少的月份通常也是盈利最高的月份,而交易约15天的月份往往亏损,或者把足够多的盈利交还市场,破坏整体风险回报。他宁愿忍受两周甚至整整一个月的价格波动,只有在高确信度形态出现时,才投入积累的现金。

2. 10.1万美元的比特币,符合新的无杠杆敞口偏好

  • TJR此前在约11万-11.5万美元附近公开看空,Thread Guy记得这种谨慎延续到了12万-12.5万美元区域。但价格进一步下行后,他改变了姿态:他说自己在比特币跌破10万美元时,于约10.1万美元附近买入了数十万美元现货。

  • Thread Guy第一时间问这笔买入是否使用了杠杆;TJR的回答非常明确:「现货。不,我不对比特币使用杠杆。」他的目标回报相对克制:一大笔现金仓位只要反弹20%,就能在不使用杠杆的情况下创造可观的美元收益。

  • 这正是TJR仍在完成的转型——远离那些止损一笔就可能亏掉5万或10万美元的单笔日内交易,转向他本来就想持有的股票或高市值加密资产。「我想赚的是小比例涨幅」,等价格到达合适位置后重仓投入并持有。

  • Thread Guy也用自己的经历描述了类似变化:随着投资组合扩大,每天寻找低市值暴涨币,不如减少交易、持有更长周期的仓位有吸引力。两人都认为,2025年的加密市场惩罚了无差别活跃交易,高确信度选股的重要性高于2024年的迷因币阶段。

3. 发布亏损是产品的一部分,而不是道歉

  • Thread Guy回忆TJR在10月亏损接近30万美元时,TJR纠正了最终结果:他说当月只亏损2万-2.5万美元,并且在FOMC交易中赚了400美元和1,000美元。TJR也曾公开发帖称自己10月一度亏损约35万美元。之后,他确认9月17日的另一笔FOMC交易盈利42.6万美元。

  • 对于「他其实不交易」的质疑,TJR的回应是流程性的:从市场开盘开始记录,实时公布入场和结果,发布日、周、月度盈亏,并通过自己的券商账户和TradeZella展示历史记录。「我公开且诚实」,但他已经不再期待这些材料能说服所有批评者。

  • 这种公开始于他对交易YouTube高光剪辑的反思:盈利随处可见,亏损却很少被讨论。认识到亏损不可避免,是他自己的一个重要突破,因此他把完整交易复盘和亏损日做成内容核心,而不是把盈利包装成一条平滑曲线。

4. 期货为加密原生交易者提供了边界清晰的游戏

  • TJR把自己交易标普500和Nasdaq的活跃时间限制在纽约开盘前后约2小时。在这段窗口内,交易形态出现就做,不出现就不做;相比之下,加密市场全天候交易,任何时刻都可能因一条推文波动,也可能在交易者睡觉时伤害仓位。

  • 他的框架寻找伦敦盘、盘前或纽约开盘期间的操纵行情,然后交易由此暗示的反转或延续,主要对应3种日内结构:伦敦盘操纵后纽约反转并延续;纽约盘操纵后反转;以及纽约盘前操纵后开盘反转。反复出现的技术单位是流动性扫荡——价格先突破前高或前低,触发交易者止损,再反转并朝预期方向运行。

  • Thread Guy问,2024年成功的链上迷因币交易者,能否在2025年流动性、成交量和潜在市值恶化后,把能力迁移到其他市场。TJR的回答非常肯定:他们的风险承受能力和心理训练已经超过期货交易的要求,他认为其中一些人「3到4个月,甚至更短」就可能实现盈利。

  • 主持人的反驳是,日内交易可能是最难的交易形式,却因为人们想要即时结果而持续获得不成比例的关注。TJR区分了无纪律的持续出手和有边界的流程:每天固定2小时、一个可重复的形态,以及在条件缺失时不承担交易义务。

5. 山寨季缺席,迫使他扩大投资组合

  • TJR对这轮加密周期的评价很直接:「整个牛市我都被打惨了」,因为预期中的全面山寨季始终没有出现。成功交易要求及时抓住特定叙事;他的玩笑式补充是,能毫发无伤逃出来的人,要么「是伟大的交易者」,要么掌握了内幕信息。

  • Thread Guy保留了几个例外:Hyperliquid持有者、Aster交易者以及当前的Zcash持有者,都有理由不同意「市场没有机会」这一说法。他更精确的观点是,买入一篮子普通山寨币后等待,结果非常糟糕——BTC跑赢,许多此类投资组合都深度浮亏。

  • 看到Nvidia、标普500和黄金上涨,而加密货币停滞不前,让Thread Guy意识到自己只关注加密市场的盲点;他持有比特币和稳定币,但没有股票。TJR的反驳值得保留:这部分认识带有事后视角,而普通意义上的分散投资「本来早就应该发生」,不应等到相对表现让这个遗漏变得痛苦之后才行动。

  • TJR长期持有股票和指数,也参与私募股权项目,还有一名主要为他提供难以获得的种子轮项目或基金的财富管理人。他举了一个最低认购额25万美元的例子。他仍然自行配置公开市场资产,以避免费用;即便是朋友,也不意味着他会自动开支票:最近他拒绝了朋友的新项目,称其为「闪亮物体综合征」,并劝对方集中精力经营现有公司。

6. 他的FOMC优势结合了共识、催化剂和流动性

  • TJR称9月17日盈利42.6万美元的FOMC交易是他今年最好的一笔,并表示自己事先就发布了交易计划。他还说自己为10月29日的交易提前写好了计划,但没有在这次对话中给出美元结果。

  • 这笔交易始于市场共识。Polymarket显示,交易者对美联储降息25个基点的定价非常充分;市场还预期Trump与中国达成贸易协议,以及5家大型科技公司财报超预期,尽管Meta最终未达预期。股市从周日一路跳空上涨至周一,TJR据此判断,在FOMC到来前,看多预期已经高度拥挤。

  • 他没有盲目做空,而是把这种散户偏见带回图表。标出「流动性抽取位」后,他等待消息推动价格扫过关键价位,要求技术确认,再把目标设在相反方向的价位。「你要反着散户交易,因为他们就是蠢蛋。他们就是会被清算的人。」

  • 这套方法源于他在伦敦开盘期间反复交易GBP/JPY和GBP/USD时的亏损:价格会突然上涨,打掉他的止损,然后精准朝他原本预期的方向运行。他最初粗糙地尝试在每次开盘拉升时做空,这还不完整,但这个模式最终把他引向流动性扫荡,以及当前围绕伦敦盘和纽约盘建立的3种结构。

7. 一次彻底归零,成为风险管理的转折点

  • 在COVID时期指数走强的阶段,TJR通过做多道指、标普500和Nasdaq,在2天内把1万美元变成11.2万美元。第二天,他靠极端杠杆把全部资金亏光,随后停交易约3个月;当时的6位数资金对他而言足以改变人生。

  • 他回顾这段经历时,并不认为这次亏损暗中有益,而是认为它让问题再也无法被否认:「我需要把风险管理控制好。」他相信,触底让自己离开了原本可能走上的普通工作和大学路线,转向最终建立起来的交易和媒体事业。

  • TJR随后把警告从金钱层面延伸出去。他披露自己终身都在与心理健康问题斗争,并曾多次尝试自杀,解释说交易可能放大人们未必意识到、也未必愿意讨论的心理状态。交易者既要避免陷入最低谷,也要避免沉溺于亢奋高点;情绪高涨时应降低敞口,并在尝试挽回资金前先寻求「稳定的心理状态」。

  • Thread Guy补充说,一个交易者被打垮后,必须抹掉过去的投资组合历史最高点:「那个数字不是真的。它不属于你。那只是轮到你。」TJR表示同意,把已经亏掉的峰值比作一个已经离开的人——浮盈从未真正落袋,「你为什么还坐在那里想着本来可能发生什么?」

8. 交易正在娱乐化,但拉新有边界

  • Thread Guy开场提到,主流圈熟人对CZ和Peter Schiff等人的出镜毫不在意,但他发布TJR后,私信却被迅速挤爆。TJR对置顶评论的总结是:「他和我们一样,只不过他很有钱」——一个普通人能够认出的年轻人格,只是他那项不寻常的爱好恰好能赚钱。

  • TJR有意让交易看起来正常化。他曾从自己认为很宅的老师那里学到交易,但高中时却不好意思谈论市场;他把这种变化类比为Fortnite时代:Ninja、Travis Scott、Drake和JuJu Smith-Schuster帮助游戏成为年轻人文化中令人向往的事物。

  • TJR「百分之百万」确信,几乎所有年轻人最终都会交易某种东西。他把这种融合称为「TradeFi」,而Thread Guy则提出了「娱乐金融」一词:Polymarket等预测市场只是早期一步,未来企业可能让新闻、文化乃至日常决策都变得可交易。

  • 两人都反对把这种预测转化为强制引导。Thread Guy后悔曾逼家人买入加密货币;TJR引用98%的交易者会失败这一说法,并对那些只被他可见财富吸引的人说:「如果你是为了钱才进来,那就别做。」他的反例是真正的痴迷——连续看完6小时课程,同时全程做笔记。

9. 信息生意的繁荣正在接近淘汰赛

  • Thread Guy认为在线教育存在泡沫:现在人人都有东西可卖,甚至有人在「教一个教练如何当教练」。他的类比是Pump.fun——「每一秒都有一枚新币,每一秒都有一个新创作者;每一秒都有一门新课程」——直到注意力和经济效益逐渐耗尽。

  • Thread Guy大约提前2年预测了这场崩溃,但现在认为淘汰已经开始。他预计,那些缺乏专业能力、或不负责任地挥霍短期收入的人,会失去汽车和住房,而「真正有实力的人会留下来」。

  • 当TJR指出Thread Guy自己也卖课程时,Thread Guy的区别在于:超过2,000条YouTube视频已经免费提供了基础课程;付费价值应该来自实时辅导,找出学习者反复犯的具体错误,而不是卖5,000美元的预录视频资料库,然后把买家丢在一边。

  • TJR认可这种辅导区分,并以Jordan Welch为例:他加入Welch的辅导项目时,YouTube订阅者已经约25万,却发现自己「每一件事都做错了」,后来达到100万订阅。更广泛的建议是,选择一项真正热爱的活动,找到其中尚未解决的问题,再围绕这些问题变现,而不是追逐当下看起来最赚钱的生意。

10. TJR正在扩张一家金融与文化公司,而不只是一个频道

  • 如今这套业务包括超过100名承包商,不包括数千名剪辑师;TJR每天与约8名核心成员沟通,每个人都管理着自己的团队。招人和解雇仍然是「最难做的事情之一」,但一个真正强的员工可以「让你的业务直接扩大5倍」,所以他目前的规则是更快招人、更快解雇。

  • 最近招募的一名安保人员兼执行助理改变了他的日常安排,负责旅行、预订和后勤。这种能力也支撑了Lacy的马拉松直播环节:TJR说,他安排了私人飞机、地面交通、酒店细节和Starlink设置,还买了Balenciaga,因为他想做出「最好的环节」,看着它在网上引发混乱。

  • 他的野心,是站在Iman Gadzhi、Alex Hormozi等金融教育者与Kai Cenat、Lacy等大众娱乐者之间。凭借约100万YouTube订阅者、150万Instagram粉丝和160万TikTok粉丝,他希望同时拥有高价值金融受众和足够的大众触达能力,从而突破任一群体通常能够达到的品牌议价上限。

  • 扩张还包括一家服装公司,参与者不愿在节目中正式说出其名称;它被定位为独立品牌,而不是「一件写着TJR的T恤」。他最后给Thread Guy的建议沿用同一套架构:把加密Twitter作为核心,在YouTube、Instagram和TikTok上发布内容,每天做25-30条TikTok,再让忠实粉丝把个人魅力带入相邻受众。糟糕的市场只是「最小的一闪而过」,只要每天的行动都让5年后的图景向目标生活靠近1%。

完整逐字稿
Thread Guy

A quick glaze to start: you know what’s crazy? In the last three months, I’ve had some pretty cool people on stream. I’ve had CZ come on. You helped me get Peter Schiff on—shout-out to you for that. There have been a bunch of cool people who come on stream, and I always post it on my Instagram story, and nobody cares.

Then I post TJR Trades on my Instagram story, and girls I haven’t talked to since high school are hitting me up. My homie group chats are firing. My parents are hitting me up. Everyone’s excited about it. It’s pretty insane how much you’ve proliferated mainstream culture. Quick glaze, but it’s honestly impressive.

TJR

Thanks, bro. I mean, yeah, I’m honestly surprised as well. I guess I don’t even know how it happened. I just make videos that people like, I guess.

Thread Guy

Yeah, it’s fucking working. And thanks for throwing me a lob to slide into the DMs with.

But dude, welcome back. I met you IRL for the first time a couple of months ago, which was fire. But you first came on the stream, I want to say, in November or December.

TJR

Yeah, it was like December.

Thread Guy

Of 2020.

TJR

Late November or December. Yeah.

Thread Guy

And it was a very different time. It was peak. You were streaming microcap meme coins. It was TikTok memes. It was Rizzmas.

TJR

Yeah.

Thread Guy

You look fire, by the way, since then. I was watching the old, old fat bros.

TJR

Fat. Fat.

Thread Guy

I feel like your content has transitioned a lot, and I feel like you’ve come a long way in a positive direction since December 2024.

TJR

Yeah, I think so as well. There were a lot of things that I changed. Low-key, it was just my personal life—things that I changed in my personal life—and then, in turn, it subconsciously changed my work life as well. It helped me become who I am now, and hopefully we can keep that going.

Thread Guy

What do you like doing differently now than you were a year ago?

TJR

It’s hard to say. It was more of one of those things where I don’t really want to get too deep into it because it was actually pretty personal. There were a lot of things that I needed to change in my life.

I moved out of my old house that I was living in. I bought this house. I cut off my long hair and decided to lose 40 pounds. I decided to get in shape, eat well, and change a lot of old habits that were still considered good because I was still fucking crushing it then. But I’m obviously crushing it way more now.

I just needed to change a lot of things in my life. A lot of them were personal things—people that I needed to cut out of my life—and I just wanted to fucking change everything. I changed the way I looked, changed where I lived, changed the people I was hanging out with, and in turn, it just rocketed my shit.

Thread Guy

Damn, respect. Forty pounds is no joke, too.

You’re coming on the stream today in an interesting spot in the markets, which I want to talk about. Crypto is getting taken out back today. Bitcoin is below $100,000. We’ll talk about the market, your take on it, and where you think we’re at.

You had this tweet a couple of days ago that I liked. I’m going to paraphrase you horribly, but it was basically along the lines of how you’ve changed and evolved your trading style into more precise, focused, long-term investments, rather than scalping on lower time frames.

I think it’s something that I’ve done as well on this stream. In 2024, we were super focused on low caps, memes, on-chain plays, and daily runners—a new coin every week. In 2025, objectively, at least in crypto, it’s been a much tougher market where you really have to pick your spots.

I’ve transitioned, especially as my portfolio has gotten bigger, into higher-conviction, higher-time-frame, longer holds. I think it’s made me a lot better at trading in general and at the type of content I can put out. Can you talk about your trading style and its evolution, parlaying off that tweet?

TJR

Since I started trading a long time ago, as a junior in high school, it was like a casino. When you first start, you’re just trying to spin the wheel as many times as possible. As you evolve—and I’m still seeing this now—the fewer trades, the better.

You always hear people say that. You always hear, “Yeah, it sounds good in theory,” but it takes a lot of discipline to actually stay true to that. It’s the most rewarding thing when you can sit through two weeks or even a month’s worth of price action without doing anything, just sitting on your hands and waiting for price to get to the point you want.

Then you go all in with the cash you’ve set aside to take action on a very high-conviction trade, compared with trying to take these little scalps or intraday trades.

I trade the indexes, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Something I notice when I look back in my trade journal is that the months when I trade the least are the months when I make the most money. Every single time, that reminds me.

The months when I’m trading 15 days out of the month, I’m either negative or I end up losing more than I’m winning. My risk-reward gets shot because, realistically, there isn’t that much opportunity in the market for you to be taking 15 trades within a single month. Instead, you can wind it back down to seven or even eight trades.

Even for me, that’s intraday trading. What I want to scale into is finding stocks or just playing long-term Bitcoin. Today, I put multiple six figures into Bitcoin because, in my mind, below $100,000, we're 20% down from lows. If you put multiple six figures into Bitcoin and it goes up 20%, that’s a substantial amount of money.

I’m trying to play the small percentage gains instead of doing these intraday trades where I’m actually losing $100,000 or $50,000 per trade because I’m hitting my stop-loss. Whether we’re talking about perpetuals or futures, versus buying into a stock or crypto asset that has a high market cap, knowing I want to hold it long term, and waiting for a good opportunity to full-port it—that’s what I’m trying to transition into.

Thread Guy

You bought spot or on leverage?

TJR

Spot. No, I don’t do leverage on Bitcoin.

Thread Guy

Whoa.

One thing I’ll say is that I was going through some of your old tweets, and you were actually pretty cautious and a little bearish around $120,000 to $125,000 Bitcoin. You had a bunch of posts about how, structurally, it looked like the 2021 top. You were actually pretty bear-pilled around $125,000 Bitcoin.

TJR

Yeah. To be fair, I was bearish even earlier than that—around $115,000 or $110,000—but still, right around that area.

Thread Guy

And you bought at around $100,000?

TJR

Yeah, I got filled at around $101,000.

Thread Guy

Nice.

Not to bring up losses, but I think even in the comments right now, there are a bunch of people saying, “TJR doesn’t really trade. He’s lying. He’s capping.” One thing I respect about you is that you’re pretty open about your P&L, green or red.

Not to bring up losses, but I think October was a pretty brutal month for you. I think you posted that your final P&L was around negative $300,000, maybe somewhere along those lines.

TJR

It was only negative $20,000. It was only negative $25,000. I made $400 and $1,000 on FOMC.

Thread Guy

Did you really?

TJR

Yeah, I can screen-share my trades on TradeZella. It’s connected to my broker. I’m not here to try to convince people what I do.

I go on YouTube, press record right when the market opens, tell you exactly when I enter, and show you my P&L for the day, week, and month. Then I show you that it’s connected to a third-party platform, TradeZella. In real time on those recordings, I’m telling you exactly how much I lost or made in the YouTube video.

It’s not backtesting or anything. You can literally see it, and it tracks to both TradeZella and my broker. That’s what I’m posting on my Instagram story every single day.

I’m open and honest. When I posted that I was down $350,000 in October, everyone said, “This dude is trying to bait you into feeling bad for him,” or, “He’s trying to show that he’s honest so you buy his course.”

I don’t give a fuck if you buy my course. You don’t need to buy my course. I have more than 2,000 videos on YouTube teaching you how to trade for free.

You can’t win in this game of being a social media influencer, especially in the finance niche. There’s always going to be people that come after you.

Thread Guy

Damn, sick day. But I actually thought it was hella cool when you were posting your red days. I was going to ask you, just in general: it’s always a weird spot, right? You see it with a lot of the crypto guys who post directional bias and trade setups, and it’s kind of the highest-risk, highest-reward game, but the reward is your personal P&L. Socially, you can’t really win.

If you’re bearish and it hits, people are mad. If you’re bearish like Ansem at the top, you’re a week early, everything gets destroyed, and you get clowned on the whole time. I was going to ask: what is your rationale, and why do you continue to post green P&L and red P&L? Is it for you? Is it for the people who watch you? Who’s it for?

TJR

That’s what I’ve been doing since I started social media. Before, when I was learning how to trade, I wasn’t really on the Twitter side of things. I was more so watching these day-trading YouTubers, and it was just a straight highlight reel. Nobody ever talked about losses.

When I finally figured out how to trade, a big thing clicked in my head: losses are actually a part of this game, and nobody teaches you about that. When I got on social media, that was the thing I wanted to drill home. That’s initially what made me go from literally a no-name influencer to a super-micro-niche day-trading influencer: this dude is open and honest about the losses he takes, and he’s open and honest about literally every single trade he takes.

I’ve been posting my daily P&L, weekly P&L, and monthly P&L literally since I started social media, on TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube. I’ve been posting my trade recaps for the past 2 years on YouTube, every single day. That takes unreal discipline—to get on every single market open and press record or livestream it, and tell people exactly what I’m doing every single day.

I haven’t seen anybody else in the space really do that. I’m just giving myself flowers because I don’t know anybody else who’s done that—to stream every single day and be open about what’s going on.

Thread Guy

I popped in today. I saw you posted on your Instagram story, and I popped in. You were doing it on Kick today, which was lit.

TJR

I didn’t trade. I haven’t traded during the month of October. On Kick, most of the time I’m either just [__] around, gambling, or talking about high-time-frame [__] in the market. But on YouTube and my Instagram story, if I take a trade, the whole market session of me trading is going to be recorded and uploaded, and then I’m going to post my P&L on Instagram.

Thread Guy

Once you’ve gotten more comfortable with trading over the last couple of years, but also moved into higher tax brackets and increased your net worth, how has the way you evaluate setups, the amount of time you spend trading, and your general style evolved?

TJR

You just slow down. When people get into trading, they’re thinking about trading in the wrong way. They’re thinking, “How can I make the most amount of money right now?” When you get into the markets, you’re going to take subconscious action to hypothetically make the most amount of money right now. Realistically, what is that doing? That’s taking high leverage and a high amount of trades. But what is that going to lead to? That’s not going to lead to the result that you want, which is making money in the markets. Realistically, what is trading about? It’s about making highly probable decisions to be able to predict where price wants to go on a daily or a weekly basis. And when you go into the market with that headspace, instead of how can I make the most amount of money today, then there’s a lot less setups that you see. Versus if you go into the market with how can I make a shit ton of money, you’re going to be pressing buy or sell every single second with a bunch of leverage, but that’s not going to lead you to the result that you want. You’re going to want to take your time and then just take action when price gives you high probability, which is again whatever your edge or whatever your strategy is, you know?

Thread Guy

I always wondered what the obsession is with day trading. I started trading options when I was 16 or 17, and it was a pretty bad experience. I was in study hall trading zero-day-to-expiration Friday contracts. I guess that’s how everybody starts: how do I hit it today on the lowest possible time frame with the biggest possible swing?

I don’t really make trading-focused content on YouTube, but the types of videos everybody wants are about day trading. No one wants to hear about a multi-month swing. People want the day-trading [__] only. What is the obsession with that? I feel like it’s the hardest way to trade, by the way—the low-time-frame price swings.

TJR

It is the hardest way to trade, but only if you’re going into it in the wrong way. The way I trade now, there’s a 2-hour window from the New York market open on both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq where either price presents my setup and I take a trade, or price doesn’t present my setup and I don’t take a trade. If it does present my setup, I have a high probability of winning.

I sit down for 2 hours a day. Versus crypto, it’s a lot harder because it’s a 24/7 market. Price could move at any point in time, and there could be a tweet that happens.

Thread Guy

New York, you know, like—

TJR

The manipulation is going to happen either during premarket, during the London session, or during the New York market open. It’s just spotting the manipulation and then taking action following that.

I would love to give you a day-trading lesson, but that would take way too long. It would be cool to show, because I think a lot of people in crypto would benefit from moving to futures. A lot of them are chasing these little micro-cap memes, and you can seek the same results with much higher probability, without the [__] just tanking in front of your face or your position getting crushed while you’re asleep.

You know the market is only going to move during the New York session. If it doesn’t present you with a setup, you don’t have to trade. If it does, then boom—you execute, and you’re only on for 2 hours of the day.

Thread Guy

Okay, so give me a take on this, then. Also, I like that. A lot of the crypto traders who crushed it trading on-chain in 2024 feel like the opportunity just hasn’t really presented itself in 2025. There are obviously spots—there are always spots in a 24/7 market—but volume is lower, liquidity is lower, and price targets and potential market caps are lower.

A lot of people are driving themselves crazy thinking, “What do I do? What do I trade?” A lot of them go over and trade perps on garbage or perps on really volatile crypto. I’m curious: for futures and equities, how do you think the skills of being an on-chain trader or memecoin trader carry over, and how do you think people should do it?

TJR

Man, I’ve been begging. I had all the crypto boys—I’m not going to dox any of them—but Orgy, he’s already doxxed, bring a group of really good crypto memecoin traders out here to Puerto Rico. I took them out to dinner and lunch, and I was trying to convince them: all of you guys watching this right now would [__] crush it in futures.

Not only is your risk tolerance way higher than it needs to be to beat the futures market, but you’ve already beaten the psychological game that is so difficult to overcome when it comes to trading. You’re already financially well off—or at least the majority of you are, just talking about the successful Solana memecoin traders.

If they took their talents over to the futures market, it would be consistent gains that are no longer dependent on these micro-market-cap fluctuations. They would be able to make way more money because they’ve already beaten the psychological game.

I think they could transform into profitable traders probably within 3–4 months, if not even less for some of them.

Thread Guy

Well, you know what’s driving everyone crazy right now, TJR? Crypto—Bitcoin—has objectively been the best-performing asset of the decade, but 2025 has been brutal. I’m sitting here staring at it. I don’t trade stocks or futures. I don’t trade anything in equities at all—basically zero—but I pay attention, and obviously I follow.

TJR

You don’t have a long-term portfolio?

Thread Guy

I have nothing, bro. I have Bitcoin and stables. I don’t have any equities, bro. I have none. If my dad was listening right now: Dad, I’m sorry, but I don’t. I don’t. It’s obviously a blind spot for me.

When crypto is up only, you don’t give a [__]. But now we’re sitting here, and I’m watching Nvidia, the S&P, and all these stocks leg up and leg up and leg up.

Thread Guy

And I'm even watching gold leg up and leg up, and crypto is just completely flat. So now I think a lot of people who have been hyper-tunnel-visioned on crypto are sitting here like, “Why the fuck have I not been trading equities over the last year?” But then you look at these charts, and they're kind of terrifying. I feel like 2025 was the moment for a lot of people who had been super focused on crypto only. They're like, “Holy shit, myself included. I need to potentially diversify because we just haven't been playing the best game in town for the last 6 months.”

TJR

Yeah, but that's just hindsight, you know? But that's also—I mean, diversify your portfolio. That’s a tale as old as time. That should have happened already.

TJR

I know. I know.

Thread Guy

I know, I know, I know.

TJR

But that's the nature of crypto, you know? Crypto has volatile swings up, and then it has volatile swings down. So, personally, I've always had that long-term portfolio in stocks and indexes, and private equity plays as well, like having a wealth manager. Personally, I want to not have to deal with those massive fluctuations. I'm a little bit more risk-averse, for sure, but because I'm young, I have the advantages of doing that. You just don't want to sit there and see your net worth fluctuate like crazy.

Thread Guy

What does the wealth manager do?

TJR

He gives me access to seed rounds and funds that I personally wouldn't be able to get access to. It's through a private bank. He works with, like, spe—

Thread Guy

Sorry, is it mostly deal flow, or does he also help you decide how to split up your portfolio and things like this?

TJR

I do that by myself when it comes to stocks and indexes because he takes a fee. But when it comes to other things, he brings me deal flow. So he'll say, “There's a $250,000 minimum buy-in for this thing,” and he'll send me the entire thing. I'm like, “Okay, cool, let's do it,” or whatever. Or I don't want to do that right now because there are opportunities elsewhere.

Thread Guy

So right now, in 2025, how do you split your time between equities, crypto, private rounds, angel investing, and maybe other niche stuff? How much of your focus is where?

TJR

The futures stuff is mainly just that early-morning market open, just those 2 hours of the day. Crypto for me is purely high-time-frame, bro. I got crushed this entire bull run. That's what you and I were talking about. I think everybody got absolutely destroyed. If you didn't, congratulations. You're a great trader, or you have insider information.

That's just how I feel about it. I got destroyed. Everybody was expecting alt season. You just had to be on time with all the right narratives, and it wasn't the case. So I've decided to fully take myself out of the crypto space, just be a Bitcoin maxi, buy these big dips when they come, and now focus on the day-trading side of things.

So, futures, and then again, just safer bets—stocks. I invest in friends' companies, and when I get the opportunity to invest in seed rounds, when my wealth manager brings me things, or when I have the opportunity to work with companies that align with me and my content, then I'm obviously going to take advantage of it. But it's just getting into safer bets now because there's no reason for me to be playing that crazy game of volatility.

Thread Guy

Are you, like, an auto-check into one of your friends' companies? I always feel like it's a little bit of a weird spot.

Thread Guy

It's a weird spot. It's a weird spot.

TJR

Lately, I have been.

Thread Guy

It's a weird spot, bro. It's a tough spot, man, because you feel weird about it, and then if it doesn't go well, you feel weird about it.

TJR

No, I mean, I'm okay. Lately, I have been. I'm invested in a couple of my friends' companies, but I wouldn't invest—I just recently turned down a friend who reached out to me. I think he's crushing it in the other business that I'm one of his top investors in, but he just came up with another business opportunity, and I was like, “This is shiny-object syndrome. Why are you even trying to split focus from the shit that you're already doing well with?”

I told him, “Bro, personally, I don't even want you to be working on this other business. I would much rather you just focus on this other business that I'm already super invested in.” So, yeah, I say no sometimes. But I don't know. Most of my friends are driven, and I like them—they're my friends for a reason. So, yeah, I'll cut them a check whenever.

Thread Guy

That's honestly a good counterargument. It's selection bias. Your friends should have momentum, so you should be down to invest in what they're doing.

TJR

Yeah.

Thread Guy

I also carry the sentiment on alts this season for 2025 in crypto. There's definitely been spots. There's been a lot of spots. There's been a lot of outperformance trades. But if you went into a traditional alt season, closed your eyes, bid a basket, and then just prayed, it really didn't happen.

There have been spots, right? The Hyperliquid people would beg to differ. People who had Aster would beg to differ. The Zcash people right now would beg to differ. But if you just closed your eyes and picked a basket, you really got cooked, got outperformed by BTC, and are probably down significantly right now.

You don't have to say P&L, but what was your trade of this year? Where did you perform the best? It could be one specific trade or one specific asset, but I'm curious: if you had a giga-outperformance trade this year, what was it?

TJR

Bro, I just got smoked on everything in crypto. The trade would have been a day trade, like that futures trade that I took—the last one, not this most recent FOMC. Let me pull it up. From September. Yeah, $426,000 on the last FOMC, on September 17th.

Thread Guy

And what was your confirmation to take that trade? That's disgusting, by the way. My God.

TJR

Yeah, thanks. That's back-to-back FOMC.

Thread Guy

That's disgusting. That's disgusting.

TJR

So that was actually, bro—I tweeted every single step of this, by the way. If you guys go back to September 17th, I told you my entire game plan. If you go to the last trade in October—October 29th—I told you exactly what I was going to do as well.

It's just looking at overall retail-market sentiment coming into these high-impact news events, combining that fundamental analysis, and actually, Polymarket has been a really great tool for that. I talked about it in both of the YouTube videos I did on the trade recaps.

You can see, okay, the vast majority of people are already pricing in the Fed cutting rates by 25 bps. Awesome. Then you can see on the chart that it's already getting priced in as the week is leading up to it, or the week prior.

On top of that, this FOMC wasn't just about the Fed cutting rates. We also had people anticipating Trump getting a trade deal done with the president of China. On top of that, we had 5 massive tech companies reporting their earnings. On Polymarket, all of those tech companies were projected to beat their earnings. Only 1 of them didn't, which was Meta.

But again, the retail sentiment was that 5 tech stocks were going to beat their earnings, the Fed was going to cut rates, and Trump was going to get a trade deal done with China. So that's why we had that huge gap-up in equities from Sunday going into Monday, whenever that was last week.

I see that and I'm like, okay, everybody is massively bullish going into FOMC. You have the initial retail-trader bias, and again, you want to trade against retail because they are the dummies. They are the people who are going to get liquidated.

You have that in the back of your mind, and then you use that with the technicals by setting up key areas of draw on liquidity. Then you wait for the news event to come out. Boom, you see whichever key levels get swept, and then you just wait for confirmation off of that and target the levels that are in the opposite direction.

That's how I went about this past FOMC. That's how I went about the last FOMC, and I crushed it.

Thread Guy

That's a crazy day.

TJR

Yeah.

Thread Guy

That's a gross day. I'm not going to lie. Who taught you your trading style? How did you develop it? Were you self-taught?

TJR

So, technically, it's smart-money concepts. Whoever you want to attribute that to. But I initially learned that the key to my trading is based on liquidity sweeps, which is just a sweep of a high or a sweep of a low—basically, manipulation.

I actually saw this when I was trading foreign exchange during the London session. I would trade the pound versus the yen or the pound versus the dollar. Pretty much every single London-session open, I would get burned. I was losing so much money because the market would open, price would boom upward, stop me out of the trade, and then just go in the direction of my trade.

I'm like, “Okay, what the fuck is going on? I just keep losing money, but it's going in the direction.” So it was just pattern recognition. I'm like, “Okay, I'm getting stopped out.”

TJR

So it was a slow and steady learning curve of me being like, “Okay, the second that London session opens, if we get a big move up, I’m just going to press short.” Obviously, that wasn’t the best strategy, but it was a step in the right direction. I realized, “Okay, London session opens, there’s manipulation to the upside. I’m going to want to short this because it’s eventually going to come down from here.”

That led me into trading futures and seeing manipulations during market open, pre-market, or the London session. Then I started seeing which of the 3 daily profiles that brought me into the New York market open: whether it’s London manipulation, New York reversal and continuation; New York manipulation reversal; or New York pre-market manipulation, where you’re trading the reversal once New York market opens.

Thread Guy

What was the first time that you really zeroed out a portfolio of a size that was meaningful to you?

TJR

Oh, like lost everything.

Thread Guy

Yeah. Yeah.

TJR

I turned $10,000 into $112,000 over the span of 2 days, and then lost all of it the very next day because I was overleveraged, trading with ridiculous size and maxing out leverage. I ended up stopping trading for about 3 months, and then crypto got me back into it.

I was trading the Dow Jones, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq, just max longing everything because this was during COVID, when everything was going up. I was just printing. All I was doing was pressing buy, buy, buy, and everything was going up. I literally 10x’d my money, and then, boom, the next day I lost everything. That 6 figures would have changed my life at the time.

That loss ended up changing my life for the better because it helped me realize, “Okay, I need to get my risk management in check.”

Thread Guy

$100,000 to zero in a day is brutal.

Okay, so even people who watch the stream—it’s very pointed toward traders exclusively—on October 10, there were probably a lot of people who turned $100,000 into zero, or something close to it. What do you do to get out of fully zeroing your portfolio?

TJR

The first thing I would say is, dude, I’ve dealt with mental health issues my entire life. There are a lot of people who have mental health issues but aren’t vocal about them or don’t even know it themselves. Trading can make those things get a lot larger, especially if you’re emotional about the money that you’re trading.

There’s no amount of money worth taking your life over. Full transparency: I tried to take my life multiple times, not only because of trading, but also because of mental health issues in the past. You never want to get to that low. Prioritize getting your mental health right, whether it’s after you zero out or before.

If you’re riding off a high right now, know that you’re riding off a high. Maybe close out some positions, because it goes both ways. You can be at the lowest lows, and you can also be at the highest highs. You don’t want to be at either of those. You want to be in a stable mental condition.

When it comes to zeroing out your portfolio, these markets have opportunity every single day. There’s going to be opportunity tomorrow, next week, and next month. There’s always going to be a time for you to make it all back, but that’s not what your focus should be.

You should be like, “Okay, awesome. It sucks that you zeroed out your portfolio and lost a shit ton of money, but what did you learn from that? How can you get better from that?” Realistically, that’s a huge loss that you can take a huge step up from.

Losing that 6 figures was probably the lowest point in my life at that time, but that’s also where I turned my life around and was able to change my life forever. If I didn’t lose that 6 figures, I would probably be working a dead-end job right now. I probably would have finished college, and I wouldn’t have been able to create who I am from that rock-bottom position.

There’s always time for you to turn it around. Even if you don’t end up climbing back to whatever that initial massive portfolio size was, that’s not what life is all about. Life isn’t all about making a shit ton of money. Prioritizing your mental health is everything, especially for me, and I know there are a lot of other people in the space who need to hear this, too.

Find stability in your life. Find what you enjoy doing and pursue that relentlessly, then find a way to monetize it. Whether it’s trading, if you enjoy doing the charts—that’s my little autism tick, and I’m assuming that’s true for most people watching this, too—pursue it relentlessly. Don’t let your emotions get the best of you, and enjoy the process.

Thread Guy

Thanks for sharing that. I also think one thing—I had to do this after peak January Trump coin turned into where we were in April—is that you have to wipe your mind clean of your portfolio ATH.

That number was not real. It wasn’t yours. It was just your turn. Your portfolio ATH has to be wiped instantly. That’s step number one.

Thread Guy

Yeah, I completely agree with that. It’s like fumbling a bad bitch. You were there. Maybe you cracked once or twice, and then she ghosted you. It’s gone now, so on to the next. That’s the easiest way to put it.

TJR

It was your turn, bro. It was your moment, but it’s not anymore.

Thread Guy

Yeah. And it was unrealized. You didn’t take profit. Why are you sitting there thinking about what could have been? It didn’t even happen, so why are you still dreaming about it?

TJR

Facts. That P&L is in someone else’s wallet now.

Thread Guy

Exactly.

Thread Guy

You made a comment and said that charts are your little autism tic. One of the reasons I think you’re an interesting character is that, in 2025, especially among the InfoFi scene and internet-money kind of scene, you’re the singular person—there are other people, but you’re the singular person—who is really making trading viral among the younger generation, especially on TikTok.

There’s this clip of you that’s my favorite clip of all time. It’s this really attractive girl holding her phone up and showing a monitor with a chart, maybe SPY or something, and saying, “Can anyone tell me what the fuck is going on?” It cuts to you with your eyes closed, saying, “All right, bullish divergence on the 4-hour. You’re going to wait for the liquidity sweep, let it test support, and—”

As much as you proliferate the brain-rot streaming culture—you were on Lacy’s stream the other day, and it was huge. You hang out with Nick, and you do all the viral stuff—you really bring trading into the mainstream for a younger generation that doesn’t have a lot of people to look to. They’re not watching Cramer or CNBC. They don’t know who Peter Schiff is and have no concept of who these people are.

I’m assuming that every Zoomer in the world will eventually trade some market somewhere. I think it’s just going to happen, and it’s not going to happen on its own. I think you’re really forcing it, and you’re doing a good job of taking it mainstream. Could you talk about trading going mainstream among the younger generation?

TJR

That wasn’t my initial goal, and it’s still not my goal. My top TikTok comment is, “He’s just like us, but he’s rich.” I’m just a regular dude who likes making jokes and is into the same shit everybody else my age is into, but I also have this fun little passion that makes me a bunch of money.

When I was learning how to trade, everybody teaching people how to trade was either a fucking nerd or just lame as fuck. I was embarrassed to tell people in high school that I was trading because it was nerdy.

When I got on social media, people saw a relatively normal person who wasn’t trying to suck himself off. Most people would think I’m a cool dude, and they saw me with an interest in a hobby that should be kind of nerdy. Most young males, for whatever reason, are attracted to the stock market, right? Initially, that was a super-nerdy thing, and it wasn’t normalized.

TJR

And I think I just made it normal. I made it cool and showed that, hey, you can still be a normal-ass person while having this hobby or this weird tic that you enjoy doing, because that was me when I was in high school. I didn't want to tell anybody about it besides my close friends. Even then, it was seen as weird.

Thread Guy

The same is the case with crypto. I have a lot of takes on this. You go out in the mainstream and someone asks you what you do for a living, and you say, “I trade crypto,” and they're looking at you crazy.

TJR

Yeah. I 100% echo your sentiment. You're trying to learn how to trade, and you're on YouTube, and everyone teaching you how to trade is 45, lame, boomer-coded, millennial, nerdy, whatever. You don't really want to be what they're doing, but you don't really want to be that.

I feel like something similar happened in gaming. Early-2010s gaming was kind of lame. People wanted to game, but my friends were playing NBA 2K, and I'm like, “All right, 2K is cool, but the rest is whatever.” Then, really for the younger demo, I think peak Fortnite—Ninja, Travis Scott, having Drake on the game, JuJu Smith-Schuster on the game—and all of a sudden, all the cool kids are on Fortnite with the headsets, the PC, and the pro setup. I sort of feel like a similar evolution is happening with markets right now. I remember when I started streaming crypto in 2024.

Thread Guy

There was a lot of pushback from the OG crowd in crypto, specifically. People were really against it, and I couldn't understand why. Part of it is that they're kind of averse to the memecoin stuff, but more broadly, crypto doesn't really like content. I'm like, “Why?” And then I finally sat down and thought about it. I'm like, “Oh, they don't like it because everyone here is 35 to 42, was in the ETH ICO, has like $50 million, and doesn't give a shit about the content.”

I just realized, damn, the people who think streaming and trading is lame also don't know who IShowSpeed and Kai Cenat are. You know what I mean? I think a little bit of a passing of the torch is happening in real time. Do you subscribe to this notion that every kid in the world is going to be trading markets at some point?

TJR

Oh, a million%. TradeFi is going to take over, and Polymarket is a step in that same direction. You're going to be able to place a trade on every single thing. Eventually, as shit gets bigger and bigger, realistically, as sad as it is, the big companies want to make everything the casino, you know? They want people to be able to place a trade on every single thing.

Thread Guy

It's happening. Yeah.

TJR

Yeah, exactly. They want people to be able to place a trade on every single thing. I think it's starting with trading right now, and it's eventually going to scale into just being able to place a trade on everyday actions or everyday decisions, to the point where you'll be able to place a bet amongst your friends that's already priced in on Polymarket on random everyday events. I think that would be cool.

Thread Guy

You call it TradeFi? Would you call it that?

TJR

TradeFi. Yeah.

Thread Guy

TradeFi. I like “entertainment finance” pretty good, too.

TJR

Entertainment.

Thread Guy

There you go. I mean, yeah, it's pretty much the same thing.

TJR

It's the same thing. What do you—okay, so what do you think about the current state of the InfoFi, sort of internet-money community right now? You're way more tapped into the scene than I am. Is that getting bigger? Is it getting smaller? What do you think about it?

Thread Guy

Everybody has something to sell now. I think this year, specifically, has seen the biggest growth in people selling courses, people wanting to coach, people teaching how to coach—just the InfoFi space. I think we're in a massive bubble right now. In fact, I was telling a couple of friends about this just a year and a half ago, or even 2 years ago. I was like, “Bro, this is a massive bubble that's going to pop very soon.” And I was wrong. I was 2 years early.

But I think it's happening right now. It's kind of like crypto, bro. Realistically, 2, 3, 4 years ago, you could say, “Hey, I'm really good at this,” and start posting content about it. People were too scared to post content back then. If you're hypothetically good at what you say you're doing, you're going to be making 6 figures a month from the course or whatever you're teaching people how to do.

Versus now, every single person is teaching some sort of skill set. Every single day, there are new people trying to get a piece of that pie. It's kind of like Pump.fun. There's a coin, there's a creator getting created every single second, and there's a course getting created every single second, to the point where it's just going to dwindle all the way down.

I think there's going to be a clear wipeout of a bunch of these people. We're already seeing it happen with people who don't know what they're talking about and aren't financially literate, who have been spending their money and making poor decisions. Their cars are going to get taken. Their houses—well, they don't even own their houses. That shit's going to be long gone.

I just think the entire space needs to be wiped out. We'll see who's left standing at the end of it. I'm sure you've seen it. It's already happening. It's been happening over the past couple of months, and whether you've seen it or not, it's just going to keep happening more and more. The real ones are going to be left standing.

TJR

Whoa. You sell a course, too. What separates the stuff that you put out from the field, if you will?

Thread Guy

You don't have to buy my course. I post everything that I teach in my course for free online on YouTube. I never really try to push anybody to do that. I have 2,000 videos on my YouTube channel, and there's a bunch of people on a daily basis that say, “Oh, bro, you changed my life for free just from the YouTube videos. I didn't even have to buy your course.”

I think courses, personally—and I'm not trying to shill my shit at all—the way I do my stuff is through coaching calls. I'm not giving you prerecorded videos for $5,000 and then just saying, “Fuck off. Just go watch those videos.” You can find that all on YouTube. That's free.

Having somebody who's been in the space for several years, who's made mistakes that you're about to make or that you've been making over and over again without even knowing you're making them, is where somebody who's actually good at the skill set you're trying to learn can fix that issue. Being able to get on a call with one of those people and ask those specific questions is where I think courses are genuinely beneficial. I've benefited from doing that with other people.

Shout-out to Jordan Welch. I went and did his shit when I was at 250,000 subscribers on YouTube, and now I'm at 1,000,000 subscribers on YouTube. I started out thinking I was doing well on YouTube because I was at 250,000 subscribers. Then I went through his shit and did a bunch of coaching calls with him, and I was like, “Holy shit, I'm doing every single thing incorrectly.” Then my shit skyrocketed from there.

He's been crushing it in the YouTube game for way longer than me. That's not me shilling my shit; that's me shilling his shit. Having a mentor in the space who's been doing it for years, who's able to say, “You're doing this wrong, you're doing this wrong. You've been able to find some success; this is how we can amplify your shit,” is incredibly valuable.

I'm not watching his YouTube videos on how to grow a YouTube channel. He's talking directly to me about the mistakes I'm making. That's where I think coaching is actually beneficial.

TJR

Yeah, shit, I like how you're down to talk about it. I agree with you that it's super saturated, based on what I see from a farther-out, bird's-eye view than you. I don't know a lot of these people that you know personally. I met Berez. He was sick; he came on the stream before.

It does feel giga-saturated. I think one of the reasons it feels really saturated is that trading crypto markets and equities is something that sort of transcends. It's a skill, a repeatable skill. If you can trade, you can always make money in any market, anywhere. A lot of these other InfoFi topics are really niche, targeted toward one specific thing, maybe.

Thread Guy

And how repeatable is it? I don't know—big question mark. It's not even remotely interesting to me, for the most part. If you were one of these really sharp, young hustler internet kids right now and you were starting over, what would you be doing? What vertical would you be focusing on?

TJR

Bro, I would just find what you enjoy doing and then find a way to monetize it. That's just the best way to make money. Find anybody who's massively successful in whatever they do, or at least happy with what they're doing, and they're doing what they love—or at least participating in or starting a business in the niche that they love—and they've found a way to monetize something in that niche.

By doing that, you're able to work forever and love what you're doing. That gives you the ultimate upside compared to just being like, "Oh my God, I don't want to sit here and work 8 hours on making this new AI software just because that's going to make me the most amount of money." You don't want to fucking do that. If you want to make the best surfboards ever because you love surfing, awesome. Go and do that, and you'll be able to make a fucking ton of money because it's your passion and you're going to know the problems that need to be solved within that niche.

It's the same thing with me in trading. Trading is personal: I get in there and I get fucked over by the markets every single day, and it's like, okay, I know I'm the one to blame. There's nobody else to blame but myself, and I can look at the mistakes that I'm making and solve them. That was addicting to me.

So again, being in the niche—whatever your weird, specific hobby is—find a way to monetize it and find problems within that space. Dude, make a business out of it. You're going to fall on your face over and over and over again, but eventually you'll be able to make a fucking ton of money because you're going to want to work forever because you love doing it.

Thread Guy

You know, the one thing I've learned about the markets—and I made this mistake, I think, in 2024—is that it's really difficult, arguably impossible, to onboard or convince someone who doesn't want to trade that they should be trading. It's actually a very bad idea to do this.

In 2024, I was very much like, you know, we were going on tour a little bit. We were going around like, "Come trade. You should trade," approaching it as if everyone should do this. I think the reason your approach works, and I honestly take a little bit of inspiration from it, is you go on Lacy's stream and it's not, like, TJR teaching us how to day trade. It's just going out, firing, ripping with TJR.

And then if someone thinks you're lit and likes you, they come back through the funnel. You have the YouTube videos, the tweets, the content, and trading stuff if they do want to trade. I think niche-targeted, verticalized trading stuff will always be a little bit niche. It's not for everyone.

The mistake I've made was initially coming at it like I was even trying to onboard my family. The worst thing you could ever do, bro, is force your family to buy crypto if they don't want to buy it. I've done this with my brother. I did this with my cousins. It doesn't age well.

When we first had mainstream press in 2024, it was very much like bringing on Thread Guy to teach us how to trade crypto. It's just the biggest, most losing battle of all time to try to convince someone who doesn't want to do it that they should be doing it.

TJR

Yeah, no, I completely agree. Realistically, the stat is that 98% of traders fail. [laughter] I always say, bro, when people come to me—for example, I'm at LAX and I have diamonds on my neck, and some dude's like, "Oh, whatever. What do you do for a living?" I'm like, "Okay, I day-trade crypto." And he's like, "Oh, okay, that's lit. You make a lot of money doing that. I want to do it."

I will literally tell them to their face, "If you're getting into it for the money, don't do it." Every single person who's like, "Oh, you make a lot of money doing that. I want to do it, too," I'm like, "You're already not going to make it." That's just my opinion on it.

When I got into trading, I was able to watch a 6-hour-long YouTube video straight, just taking notes, because I actually enjoyed learning about it. So if you actually enjoy it, then awesome. But if you're just in it for the money, you're going to get fucking smoked every single time.

Thread Guy

How big is the TJR team? We've kind of talked about this, but I kind of forget. Share as much as you want. How big is the TJR team? How many people do you have working for you? How many employees do you have? How big is the operation?

TJR

I have over 100 people working for me.

Thread Guy

That's insane. Over 100. Does that count Clippers or no?

TJR

Oh, Clippers? It's thousands. Like, thousands. That's not counting Clippers.

Thread Guy

You have over 100 non-Clipper employees. That's actually a lot higher than I thought.

TJR

Not technically employees, but contractors.

Thread Guy

Got it. Got it. Got it. Got it. Got it.

TJR

Pretty much, yeah. Same thing.

Thread Guy

And how big is the core team of TJR that you're talking to frequently?

TJR

I probably talk to 8 people consistently on a daily basis, and then they all have their own teams that they manage.

Thread Guy

Whoa. This is something I'm kind of going through right now. Objectively, your operation is bigger than mine. How did you scale the TJR operation from the professional business and company-structure side?

TJR

Bro, it's one of the hardest things to do. Hiring is brutal. It's the best skill that you can get, but it's also one of the hardest skills to develop. Hiring and firing is the worst thing ever, and it's still something that I'm learning how to do. I just recently hired someone who has made my life—

Thread Guy

Oh dude, just, like, a million times easier just this past month.

TJR

And, yeah, when you make a good hire, oh dude, it makes literally 100% of the difference. It will literally 5x your business when you're able to make a good hire, and you'll be able to notice it immediately. Without a doubt, immediately, you'll be able to notice it.

Bro, I'm in the same boat as you. As much as I would love to sit here and be like, "Bro, I do have the best team ever," I have a great, awesome team, but it's very difficult to hire the right people and find the right fit.

This e-commerce guy told me that you're not firing quickly enough and you're not hiring quickly enough. It's true. You need to hire faster and fire faster. You've got to be quick to it, and it's something that I still struggle with today. You just need more bodies. You need more hands on deck.

Thread Guy

The person you just hired that you're hyped about—what do they do?

TJR

Security, but also an executive assistant who does everything. I can close my eyes and go through my entire day, and everything is booked out. Every single thing is taken care of. I just tell him what I have going on for the day.

When we were in New York, I told him what was happening, and boom, everything was taken care of from the time that we got there to when we got to an event. I don't have to take care of everything anymore, because that's how it was in the past. Now, everything is taken care of.

That was huge, and then also just peace of mind from having security. That's the smaller thing, but the executive assistant side of things is huge.

Thread Guy

You've seen under the hood of a lot of these operations. You hang out with a lot of our mutuals—a lot of these big internet people and streamers. How intricate, relative to yours, are these operations? Some of these guys are really big, like Lacy. Some of these guys have 30,000 people watching them on stream. How do their operations compare to yours?

TJR

Bro, it's a lot smaller. I thought it was going to be way bigger, but I only met, like, 3 of his guys. I would estimate that there's probably only, like, 10 guys on top of that. Obviously, he's got the whole clipping team, but I think it's a lot smaller than what I have going on.

Thread Guy

Damn, that's kind of surprising. I would think it was bigger than that as well.

TJR

That's what I thought too.

Thread Guy

Because it's not easy to pull off the jet stream with no lag. It's not easy to pull that fucking thing off. You know what I mean?

TJR

Well, I mean, that's just Starlink.

Thread Guy

Yeah. Okay, fair. Damn, you hate it.

TJR

And I set that one up.

Thread Guy

Did you really? [laughter]

TJR

Yeah. I put that one into motion, but that was for the stream.

Thread Guy

You booked the jet.

TJR

Yeah.

Thread Guy

Oh, wow. Okay, so you just did the whole thing.

TJR

Yeah, I pretty much set up that entire stream. But they definitely have their stream manager who sets up the people to come in. That stream specifically, though, I set up the jet. I set up the trucks to get us from the house to the jet and from the jet to the hotel. I set everything up at the hotel to make sure everything was taken care of. I also bought the Balenciaga.

Thread Guy

Dude, I'm lazy.

TJR

No, that was just me showing love. I wanted to do that. I wanted it to be the best segment on his subathon. That was the goal.

Thread Guy

It was hot. I'm not going to lie. I was in there casually watching, like, “Damn, this is a movie.” Also, thanks for the shout-out. That was lit.

TJR

We clipped and posted that.

Thread Guy

Tell me this: one thing I think you're really good at is that you're early to talent. I don't want to say he's not hot in his own right, but I definitely found Breads through you. I found a lot of these earlier-stage people through you, and I would assume you have some lit people in your operation. How do you spot killer talent on the internet?

TJR

I'm constantly online. I almost treat it like my full-time job. Because, bro, again, I'm kind of moving into this space of: How can I bridge the gap? We were talking about this before—how can I bridge the gap? I have, at least right now, a million subscribers on YouTube, 1.5 million on Instagram, and 1.6 million on TikTok. I pretty much have encapsulated the vast majority of finance and internet-money people.

How can I bridge the gap between internet money and just being an influencer? That's what I want to do: bridge that gap. There are the Iman Gadzhi types and the Alex Hormozis, where they won't be appealing to the average, normal person. I want to be able to bridge that gap and be the person standing in between the two. I'm internet money, but I'm also a 5-million-follower influencer.

For me, part of that vision is being super early to trends, being constantly online, and seeing these things that are happening on a daily basis. It's literally doomscrolling. It's my full-time job—doomscrolling, seeing these trends as they happen early on, and then making videos about them that appeal to the masses. That's kind of my goal as this year is wrapping up and going into next year.

Thread Guy

I think you're well on the way. From where you're at, how do you get to the Iman and Alex Hormozi levels of wealth?

TJR

I don't want to be there—or, okay, levels of wealth, yes, I want to be there.

Thread Guy

Okay, answer both, then. You said you don't want to get there in terms of influence.

TJR

I don't want to be on their level of internet money only. They don't appeal to normal people. I'm already appealing to normal people, so I'm in the middle. There are influencers like Kai Cenat, FaZe Lacy, and all those guys in this area. Then there are the Iman Gadzhi and Alex Hormozi types. I want to be smack dab in the middle, and I want to be at the same level as both of them.

Thread Guy

And what about wealth, or even scale? How does the TJR entity make $100 million, $500 million, or $1 billion?

TJR

You look at Kai Cenat and you look at Adin Ross. Not that they—I mean, bro, low-key, Logan Paul and Jake Paul have more money than Alex Hormozi. They have more money than Iman. I think being on both sides of that spectrum gives me a crazy vertical.

Thread Guy

Prime is like a billion-dollar company, isn't it?

TJR

Yeah.

Thread Guy

The highest-net-worth demographic is also finance. It's OP.

TJR

So that's the game plan here. Again, the goal is to bridge that gap—to be mass-appealing to normal people, but also have that core audience of internet money. Then I can go to these companies and say, “Yo, I have 5 million followers on every single platform, but I also have mass appeal to the finance audience.”

That gives me way more leverage than someone like Iman or Alex Hormozi, who only has leverage over this audience. It gives me way more leverage than FaZe Clan, for example, who can only get a deal with Four Loko. No offense to them, but they can't necessarily get a deal with a big brokerage or a massive finance company. If I'm in the middle of those two, that's where I'm going to be able to scale and hopefully beat both sides.

Thread Guy

This is honestly my thesis, too, but I'm way more focused on finance than I am on the mainstream side. Maybe that's the gap. Do you like doing the mainstream content? Do you like going on Lacy's stream and doing the viral stuff? How do you feel about that? How much of this is for the content versus just wanting to do it?

TJR

It's a mix. I have a super-small social battery. I find joy not during the content, but in thinking about what the content is going to do. For example, when I got the Koenigsegg, I wasn't even happy about getting the car. I was itching to make the YouTube video, the TikTok videos, the Instagram post, and the Instagram reels. I wanted to see the numbers and the havoc I could cause on the internet. That's what I enjoy doing.

When we did the Lacy stream, I wanted to make it the best segment of a subathon because I wanted to see the kind of havoc we could wreak on the internet. That's what I enjoy doing on the influencer side of things. I just like seeing the numbers on the board.

Thread Guy

How many miles have you put on it?

TJR

Not many. I drove it from the Bay Area—Silicon Valley—to Monterey, so that was a decent amount. Probably only 500 miles at most.

Thread Guy

Damn. That's awesome, though. That thing is fire. I'll let you go in a couple of minutes. I'm curious, though: what about Killtech? What do you think is fire? I have a couple of tees. They're all at my mom's house, so when I go back home, I'm rocking them. What's the vision and plan for that, and how do you feel about it right now?

TJR

Right now, I'm actually not allowed to say the name. There's some stuff going on, but we do have a clothing brand. I'm not allowed to say the name, but we do have a clothing brand.

That has been super fun to pursue with my best friend, business partner, and manager. It's another avenue that can appeal to my influencer audience. Maybe they don't want to trade, and that's awesome, but how can they support me in other ways? They want to wear dope clothes, and that's what we can bring to the table.

All of the clothes we make aren't merch. It's not TJR merch. I think it's actual cool clothing. Pretty much every single person I wear it around—or, bro, when I brought it to the FaZe house, everybody was like, “Damn, bro, that shit's sick.” I'm like, “Yeah, it's my brand.” It makes me feel really good in public.

Thread Guy

The jean shorts.

TJR

Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's super cool to go out wearing your stuff and have people come up to you and say, “I've never seen that before. That shit's awesome,” and then be able to say, “Yeah, it's my brand.” That's been a super-fun thing to pursue, and hopefully we get an exit in a couple of years.

Thread Guy

I feel like influencer merch is pretty fried, not going to lie. Merch is the word—merch is cooked.

TJR

Nobody wants to buy a T-shirt that says “TJR” across it. That's lame. It's nerdy.

Thread Guy

I'd rock it. I'd rock it.

TJR

You have to get a Killtech collab on some hard-ass Satoshi Nakamoto flannels, bro.

Thread Guy

That's got to be on the pedestal eventually.

TJR

That would instantly get you nerfed at the door.

Thread Guy

Okay, I have two more questions for you, and I'll let you sign off. I had you on the stream the other day, which was fun. I have to ask you—not trying to put you on the spot, I'm genuinely curious—who's the most impressive person you've ever met?

TJR

Who asked me this? I was on a podcast, and somebody asked me this. I repeated the answer.

I said the owner of Jerkmate, or whatever, the CEO of Jerkmate. [laughter] Man, bro, I’m going to give the same answer. Shout-out to freaking Jordan Welch, dude. He’s obviously super successful, but in terms of mindset, it’s crazy.

He’s one of my best friends. I’ll bring ideas to him, and we work on a bunch of stuff together. I’ll bring him something that I get super excited about and that I know he would also get excited about, but that’s also low-key shiny-object syndrome. He always approaches it with such a level head.

Literally everything that I bring to him, and the way that he looks at things, is always approached with a super level head. He weighs out the pros and cons. That’s someone who is super impressive to me, because when you’re in this game of money and success, it’s easy to get knocked off course.

He’s someone who I consistently see maintain a level head and a very consistent way of thinking about things. It’s not necessarily who makes the most money in my circle or who’s the most famous. For me, it’s how people think about things, and he has consistently been one of those people who is always on point with how he approaches things, at least decision-wise.

Thread Guy

I’ve got to hit him up. I’m mutuals with him on Twitter, but I don’t really know him that well. I’ve got to hit him up.

TJR

It’s ya boy.

Thread Guy

W glaze. Okay, before I let you go, can I selfishly ask you for some advice as someone who sits in a similar circle and a similar vertical? I like the finance media and the crypto media, tying it into streaming. Where do you think all of this goes long term, and how do you think you basically win the field?

TJR

You need to appeal to a wider audience. Right now, every single person in crypto Twitter knows you. You have that covered. I’m not saying to slack off on that. Those are your ride-or-dies, but now you need to find a way to get into other branches that you haven’t even explored yet.

I’m not talking about trying to go mainstream. I’m talking about other areas in finance, just other areas on the internet and in finance within your specific niche. That means showing who you are on YouTube and showing who you are on TikTok.

I know I have very limited time in my day. If I’m able to cover streaming, make multiple YouTube videos every single week, and do 25 to 30 TikToks per day, I know anybody can do it. Having a whole clipping team helps, too. Anybody can do what I’ve done, or what you’re doing right now.

For you, it would be about appealing to people or showing them who you are. There are people on crypto Twitter who love you for who you are and love your content for what you do. They’re in other pockets of the internet, like TikTok, YouTube, and Instagram, and they’re just waiting for Thread Guy to pop up on their feed. They’re waiting to build that cult following on those other platforms.

From there, when you have a cult following on every single platform, you can start bringing in people who aren’t necessarily in the finance or crypto niche, but who like you for you. That’s how I started. I started out just talking about day trading, then I started showing a little bit of my personality, then I started showing more of my personality, and then I turned into who I am now.

You start with what you’re really good at. You start by teaching people a valuable skill or entertaining them through streaming or whatever type of content you create, and then you can expand out of that. Your ride-or-dies are going to be your biggest advocates.

The reason why I blew up so quickly is that on every single one of my videos, people are like, “I can’t believe this dude’s my mentor.” Normies get on there and see a funny video of me dancing, and they’re like, “This dude’s a mentor? What is this?” That gets them in, and that’s how they become part of my loyal, strong cult following, like my strong core audience.

So again, it’s about keeping that core audience and not using them, but having them support you as you branch out into these other areas of the internet.

Thread Guy

Honestly, a banger, bro. GG. W advice. To sign off, my favorite TikToks are the motivational TJR TikToks. They slap.

There are a bunch of people in the chat right now. The market looks like shit. I think a lot of people are tired, worn out, and a little bit depressed. Optimism is reasonably low. Nobody’s really sure what happens short term, and definitely nobody’s really sure what happens long term. There’s a lot of froth.

What’s something optimistic to do if you’re feeling lost in the market right now, but you’re in the chat, watching the stream, locked in, and trying? What do you do? Where do you go from here?

TJR

If you’re feeling bad about your life right now, or if you’re in a shitty situation, this is the smallest blip on your massive timeline of life. Five years from now, when you’re living the life of your dreams, you’re going to look back on this small moment and laugh at how sad, depressed, or shitty you were feeling.

You’re going to realize that it was just the tiniest blip on this massive timeline of life that you have. The more that you can realistically zoom out on this long life that we have to live, the better off you’re going to be. You have plenty of time to make it; you just have to take action every single day.

As long as more blips on your timeline are green than red, that’s all you’re trying to chase. Try to get 1% better every single day. There are always going to be bad days. There might be incredibly bad days where you think you’ve hit rock bottom.

But if you can think five years from now, look back, and think about your dream self five years from now—think about who that person is and what he’s looking back at you right now at rock bottom—then think about all the steps that person at rock bottom has to take to get to that dream version of you. Just take those steps every single day, and you’re going to wake up living the life of your dreams.

That’s literally what happened to me in my life, and it’s what can happen to every single one of you.

Thread Guy

TJR, man, thanks for coming on, dude. Honestly, I don’t know. I guess you’re relatively controversial in some segments of the internet, but I’m not afraid to say it, bro: I’m a fan. I think you put out good shit, I think you put out important stuff, and I think that in the vertical I’m particularly interested in—the intersection of internet culture, finance, and trading—you’re a staple pillar.

Thanks for coming on, dude. I really enjoyed it. It was well overdue, and I think this is perfect timing in the market to do it right now. You’re the GOAT.

TJR

Thank you, bro. Thanks for having me.

Thread Guy

Thanks, bro. Have a good one. We’ll talk offline. Peace.

TJR

Yeah.