Tesla 的 Robotaxi 终于成真——接下来 $TSLA 会发生什么？

Yesterday in Austin, people climbed into Teslas with no steering wheels, no pedals, and nobody in the driver’s seat. After years of promises, the CyberCab is finally real. But if you were hoping yesterday’s launch would explain exactly how this is going to scale, you’re probably disappointed. There was no Elon, no livestream, no real production-ramp update, no new city timelines, and still no final pricing.

You can fill out a form and let Tesla know that you’re interested in buying your own fleet. People who actually rode in the CyberCabs genuinely seemed impressed. There was insane legroom and recline, a huge, huge screen, and a smooth ride. One person called it the nicest $25,000 car you’ve ever seen in your life. Starting tonight at 5 p.m., CyberCab rides are going to be open to the public.

So yes, there’s still a lot that Tesla hasn’t told us, but something changed yesterday: Robotaxi is no longer just an Elon Musk promise. People are riding in it, and now we get to figure out exactly what that’s worth.

Today on Dumb Money, Tesla's RoboTaxi is finally real. Now what happens to Tesla's stock? This is Dumb Money Live. Hey there, Dave here, along with Chris and Jordan, we are Dumb Money. Welcome to Dumb Money Live. If you're willing to get into a car with no steering wheel, no pedals, you should definitely have no problem finding the like button and just smashing the heck out of it. Chris, Jordan, it has been so long since we’ve done one of these. We're still working out the technical issues behind the scenes, but thanks for finally being with us on our podcast, Chris, instead of your world tour of other people’s podcasts.

I’m just promoting Dumb Money everywhere I go. It’s great.

So anyway, yesterday Tesla basically gave us something we’ve been waiting years to see, but none of the numbers that actually moved the stock. I don’t know exactly where to start. The Dumb Money AI robot created this 8-page analyst report for us, so I’ve got all my notes firmly situated here. Where do we start?

I’ll tell you where to start, Dave. I think I’m going to piss off some Tesla people on this call, and I hate doing that, but I have to speak the truth. Before I do that, I want to say one thing really positive about Tesla.

My buddy, our buddy, our long-term buddy Patrick, had a Model Y, and I was like, whatever. He got the new Model Y, which I hadn’t been inside until yesterday. I had lunch with Patrick. If you were in town, you would have been with us, Dave, at Sammy’s.

I miss Sammy’s.

One of the best barbecue places in the city.

I know Patrick. I didn’t get a phone call.

You know I love Sammy’s. I’m sorry, dude. Listen, you’re in. You’re in.

Let me just say something. I was genuinely stunned by how beautiful the interior of the new Model Y is. Honestly, it was flawless. You know how Teslas feel a little too futuristic? They don’t feel comfortable, and they don’t feel soft. The original ones, with those stark white interiors, felt like the future, but almost not in a good way.

They fixed every problem with this new Model Y. If you guys have not been in the new Model Y—and I know I’m so late to comment on this, because people who follow Tesla probably knew about it forever ago—the interior of that Model Y is a work of art.

It is.

It’s warm, it’s soft, and the materials—every single piece of that interior is gorgeous. It’s just a work of art. I was so floored by it, because you know that’s not my type of car, Dave.

It’s not, it’s not.

I really like the way the exterior looks, although I wish that, for their SUV-like vehicle, they would make it look more like an SUV and less like a sedan. So it’s going to be Megan’s next car for sure, and probably as soon as we get back to Texas, I’ll be buying that.

Dude, it’s so nice. I would wait and get the new Genesis. Your health deserves more.

Wait, you get the new Y?

The new Genesis that’s coming up—the new Genesis SUV, with the doors that open like this?

Yeah, that looks pretty insane.

Are you talking about a Hyundai?

I’m not going to buy that.

You’re talking about a Hyundai? A Hyundai? A Hyundai. And it’s Genesis, which is their high-end Hyundai.

Their higher-end unit. I’m not ripping on it. I love Hyundai.

But it’s a Genesis.

Yeah, it’s under the Hyundai Corporation. It actually looks crazy. It looks awesome. As far as a car that’s actually slated for production and not just a concept car, it’s the craziest thing I’ve seen.

But it doesn’t have Full Self-Driving, which is the whole thing about Tesla. My next car is going to be a Tesla, 100%, because I just don’t like driving. The idea of a CyberCab that will drive me around, or my own car that will drive me around, go park itself, drop me off at the airport, go home, and park itself in the garage—I think it’s good. I just don’t trust a LiDAR-less self-driving system.

You’re a LiDAR man, aren’t you? I didn’t even realize how big of a LiDAR man he was. He’s driving around; he can’t wait to get in his Zoox.

Jordan, I don’t necessarily disagree with you, though. But yeah, that Model Y was fantastic.

Crazy nice, man. My brother-in-law got one. I rode in it. It’s great. They look awesome.

I feel like Elon does not have a nuanced sense. He has no taste when it comes to anything beyond raw technology. In terms of actual human taste, I just don’t think he has it. He’s not the most human.

Yeah.

You know what I think happened? I think Elon has been so focused on other things over the last 18 to 24 months that his team actually got to make some decisions without him being overly involved. Whoever’s running at least the interior of that car is insane.

1. The CyberCab Investment Thesis

But let’s talk about the CyberCab, because this thing, guys—

There’s so much misinformation out there. The stock chart of the last 2 days makes so much sense to me. This is exactly what I would think would happen, because the hype going into that event and, on the surface, what Tesla was putting out was phenomenal.

But as soon as you start peeling off the layers of truth and actually assessing the viability, the timelines, the economics, and how all of this is going to play out, it’s potentially very good. But the timelines and the time value at the valuation level—this entire Full Self-Driving Robotaxi thing is a very good-to-great thing for Tesla, which is already baked into the price. The story, all of it, is baked into Tesla’s price right now.

Is it baked in at the best-case scenario, the mid-range scenario, or the scenario where it barely ever took off? Because it’s a small—there’s still a small sample of cars being put into this. By the way, the only way they can even do this is in Texas, because of the regulations in California. They can’t do a self-driving test like this, or a fully autonomous taxi service, in California right now.

Jordan, forget about a small sampling of cars. If they were to ramp this up to 1 million—1 million Robotaxis or whatever—

Well, they haven’t made enough cars to do that.

Even at that, if you look at the economics, which are debatable because it’s very early, there are a lot of factors and a lot more questions than answers. But you’re looking at tens of billions of dollars in profit annually with 1 million of these things.

And do you know how difficult it’s going to be to get 1 million of these things done with all the different regulatory issues, state by state by state? We are looking at something so far down the road.

So you’re telling me that once you get 1 million of them, realistically, we’re looking at tens of billions of dollars? Throw on a P/E, because at that point it’s a pretty mature business. It’s not going to be a wild P/E. We’re looking at a fraction of Tesla’s valuation already today.

It’s very hard to get there. I’ve been saying this for a long time. Elon knows this, by the way. Elon has said this: the entirety of Tesla is Optimus.

We’re not going to talk about Optimus right this second.

Yes, Optimus is everything.

We do need to talk about it a little bit, because how much of Optimus is priced in?

Elon has said that Optimus will be 80% of Tesla in the future.

So does CyberCab—does Robotaxi—really matter? And how much? Because you’re talking about 1 million cars. It’s just a portion, right?

Okay, I’ll tell you this: they calculated that 2 million CyberCabs could do $105 billion in annual bookings. At a 30% operating margin, that’s $31 billion.

Nothing.

So that doesn’t—it’s not critical. Guys, it’s actually nothing when you look at the valuation of Tesla. All of the future potential theoretical economic benefit from Robotaxi is fully baked into Tesla stock right now. There’s essentially zero upside. Zero.

2. Robotaxi Must Prove Execution

There’s one thing that makes Robotaxi extremely important. Am I saying it right?

Before you go there: Robotaxi.

All right, take all that back. There’s CyberCab, which is the name of the gold car, and then Robotaxi, which is the service.

Okay.

You can say whatever. There’s only one thing that matters.

All right. What is the one thing that matters?

The only thing that matters is that the entirety of the success of that program is baked into Tesla stock right now, but there’s one thing that’s not baked in: whether Tesla can actually execute on Robotaxi in a very big way.

The numbers aren’t really going to matter that much relative to Tesla’s valuation, but it’s going to serve as a proof point that Tesla is more likely than not to pull off Optimus, which is roughly 100 to 1,000 times the size of Robotaxi.

Okay, so 100 to 1,000 times the size. If Tesla fails at this, people are going to be less confident in its ability to pull off something that is actually more difficult, which is Optimus, the robot. But if they succeed and execute—if they show that they actually have their act together after the last few years of missed expectations, being all over the place, and Elon being all over the place—we'll start to develop confidence that these guys can be a top 1 or 2 company globally in generalized robotics.

That is what gets you the theoretical $10 trillion, $15 trillion, or $20 trillion valuation at some point in the future. That's what could potentially excite institutional and retail investors, even those who are informed and actually basing Tesla's market cap on something real, because that's not just theoretical. It's very real if they execute.

Yeah, what we saw yesterday basically proves that, from an engineering standpoint and from being able to go from a concept to a product that you can actually get in and ride around in, Tesla can do that. Check. They'll probably be able to build a robot that has the capacity to scale.

But turning that into a subscription business—turning that into a number that actually helps their stock price—we need Tesla to prove that. I think CyberCab is a good example of a technology that has a business model, kind of, but they haven't been able to do it yet.

3. Waymo Still Leads The Market

I mean, there are still so many questions with robotaxi, right? There are regulatory issues, including where they're able to do this. They still have regulatory hurdles to get through. There's the audit that the transportation safety board is doing.

Tesla has this concept that it can bypass that because this car doesn't have controls. Some of the safety features required in most or all normal cars would be exempted from that, and that's a big unknown.

Well, they're not even leading the market here. Waymo is the obvious market leader. They're way ahead of Tesla.

But I think Waymo being ahead and actually having more cars on the road is a positive for Tesla because Waymo is having to deal with the exact same regulatory issues. Waymo has a much more expensive and harder-to-produce vehicle, though. They tackle things in a little bit different way, and there's different engineering behind it, so it's a different animal.

But Jordan, the entire thesis around robotaxi is that, at some point, it doesn't matter how far ahead Waymo and the other guys are. At some point, the cost efficiencies of robotaxi will be so meaningfully superior to Waymo that it will be almost impossible for companies like Waymo to compete. I'm not saying that's correct, because there are still a lot of questions around that.

Are you just saying that's because the car is more stripped down, so it's less expensive to put on the road?

I think it's about more than that. Yes, there's the stripped-down nature of the car and the lack of LiDAR, and then there's Tesla's mass-manufacturing expertise at scale. There's also the fact that Tesla is going to have a program that shares the cost with fleet-management companies.

There are a lot of benefits if they can execute. I don't think all those things combined are going to create the greatest economic model for Tesla, but what they will do is destroy the economic model of Tesla's competitors, which are coming in at a much higher cost. I don't think this is as insanely great a business as we all once thought it would be for Tesla, but I do think it could theoretically be a crushing business for companies like Waymo.

And then I want to talk about Uber and Lyft, too.

4. Uber Faces A Margin Collapse

Yeah, I think this is where the trade gets really interesting. When I looked at this, the one thing that stuck with me was shorting Uber. I know it's a controversial take, but I don't see how Uber survives with the existing economics that it's been enjoying, because those economics are going to get shattered no matter how you look at this.

Even if Uber does its own driverless thing, it really doesn't matter. If Tesla succeeds with robotaxi, it shatters the economics for everyone else. I don't know. It seems like the risk-reward is in your favor long-term if you short Uber.

The timeline is tough, right? Uber Eats is a little tougher to disrupt with this model.

I think straight-up shorting Uber is dangerous. If you could find a financial way to play the distance between Tesla and Uber, that would be more interesting. Uber has other stuff. Uber isn't just self-driving; Uber is a logistics company.

People would say that the moat on Uber is the rider, not the driver. And then people say that Uber dies when the robotaxi companies no longer need all of that demand.

The big question is whether a company like Tesla can circumvent the existing demand that falls under Uber today because of habit and because of all the years Uber has spent developing that customer relationship. By the way, I would say that's a terrible customer relationship. I hate Uber.

Uber has had years and years to perfect that experience, and the Uber experience has done nothing but get worse.

I see more cars that are filthy, and the worst is the odor. It's the worst damn-smelling experience. This is so easily fixable. Do you know how cheap it would be for Uber to say, “If you want to be an Uber, you must put this filtration system—this Christmas tree—on your dash so it doesn't smell so awful”?

No, no. Don't put the Christmas tree on your dash. I hate those even worse. I just want a neutral scent. I don't want the little trees. I literally cannot handle that.

You know how Uber has the version where you can say, “Yes, I want a quiet ride, and I want it to be cool”? They need to have, “I want it to be odorless.” That's a sensory issue I personally have. I can't stand it.

I have a way better experience. I don't use Uber; I only use Lyft. I've had nothing but good experiences.

But Jordan, you also live in the country, basically.

No, I just got back from Manhattan, and I took Lyft all around Manhattan. I had no problems. I had about 10 different Lyft rides, and they were all fantastic—friendly people, five stars all the way.

You got lucky. By the way, that's great, but it's still a roll of the dice, in my opinion. My issue is this: If Uber is incapable of solving the most easily solvable problem, which is making sure that its drivers aren't high and that the cars don't smell like BO, then that management team is incapable of existing in a world of driverless cars.

The whole bearish outcome isn't that Uber loses every single ride. It's that it keeps some of the rides but finances the cars and loses all of the margin. Its customer base doesn't really care about Uber because nobody wants to be in a smelly car driven by someone who's high. It's not safe, it's disgusting, and it's about 1 out of every 3 rides for me.

Are you using UberX, or do you get the upgrade? The Lux or whatever?

No, I'll do Comfort. I don't really do Black.

Comfort, yeah. I do Lyft's upgraded one, just one step up, and I've had no issues.

It's not a step up. That's the problem. You sometimes get lucky and sometimes you don't. You get a guaranteed newer vehicle, but you don't get a guaranteed better driver or a better overall experience.

Then I get really lucky, because I have no issues.

Do you know what I want? I want to pay a little extra for a vehicle that doesn't smell bad.

I would pay for the sensory-experience vehicle. Absolutely.

5. The CyberCab Rumor Scorecard

I think this will be a fun game. In our notes, I saw the rumor-and-claim scorecard, and it seemed like a perfect opportunity for us to debunk some of the rumors and confirm some of the statements that have been out there. Let's go through the list. I'll read the claim, and then I want you to tell me what you think.

The claim is: “CyberCab is now operating publicly.” What does that mean?

True-ish. Public-ish. CyberCab will be public as of 5 p.m. tonight. You'll be able to get in a CyberCab in Austin, Texas, within a geofenced area. It's also not guaranteed to be the actual cool one that everyone is talking about. You may not get the gold one; you may get a Model Y. They don't guarantee that you're going to get one of those.

Jordan, there are only 45 in Austin, right? And there are about 500 normal ones, so you have a 1-in-10 chance of getting it. If you need extra space, you can't use it anyway. You can only have 2 people.

Yeah.

It's a 2-seater, for sure. If you have 4 people, you're going to need the Model Y.

The next claim is: “Tesla has 1,000 CyberCabs on the road.”

No. Jordan?

What? No. No way. It is false. It is misleading. The transportation audit population is 1,000, but Texas actually has 45 registered CyberCabs, so they're not the same thing.

By the way, Dave, we've got spies out there. They have 1,000, possibly. I do think that half of all the CyberCabs are in Austin and Dallas, Texas.

Yes, they're all over Dallas. They were even in Dallas the last time I was there.

What do you guys think about the gold?

I think it's disgusting.

The gold? I think it photographs better than it looks.

That's the one thing I don't have a problem with. I think it looks great.

Okay, but have you seen them in the wild? They look horrible when they get dirty, Jordan.

Oh, really? I can see that. I had a gold Tahoe once, and it always looked terrible. I think they look great in the promotional videos, but in person, they just look a little bit different—not the same vibrant gold.

When I see them in the wild, these Cybercabs look like a really crappy car out of Mad Max, covered in dirt. What are they called? I keep forgetting the name. Cybercab. Yeah, when I see them in the wild, these Cybercabs look like a really crappy car out of Mad Max.

The problem is, what color is the best color for dinginess? I feel like gold might be it, right? I actually think here's what gold has going for it: when you see them en masse, it reminds you of New York City's yellow cabs. It's a futuristic take on a yellow cab, and because it is a Cybercab, I kind of think the gold works. I'm not upset about the gold being the color.

Yeah, I don't like it. We'll see what happens. I do understand that they're trying to do something radically different that doesn't make any sense at first, but then over time you're like, “That was genius,” kind of like the yellow cab thing.

That does make sense. You would never have chosen yellow if you were starting from scratch building taxis in Manhattan. You wouldn't have picked yellow, right? But now it's iconic.

I think neon green. I think they litter the neighborhood with ugliness. They're nasty. By the way, I know the Waymos are kind of nasty, but I almost prefer to see a Waymo zooming around in that nasty, dirty gold.

I can't stand the Waymos. The Waymo in our neighborhood, Chris—

The cars themselves, like the Cybercabs, are streamlined. They look sleek. I think it's a good look.

I think the Waymos in our neighborhood that are always parking themselves because they don't have any demand look terrible. I'm not a fan of them.

The next claim—and you might be seeing a lot more of these gold things driving around the neighborhood—is that the factory can make 125,000 of these per year. True or false?

False.

True. Capacity doesn't mean they're going to do that, though, right?

That's right.

Wait, what was the question?

Whether or not they can make 125,000 vehicles per year in the Cybercab factory.

Right, and it's partially true. That is their maximum capacity. That's not where they are today.

Yeah, I'm sure they can. They're not doing it. I think this is one of the things the Tesla fanboys often run away with. Every time Tesla announces its manufacturing capacity, people just assume they're doing it. I see this with the robots all the time. People are like, “Oh, they're going to be doing 1.5 million.” I'm like, “Dude, no way.” Maybe theoretically in the future, but trust me, there are no plans to be making that many robots. They do not have a hardware-scalable platform that would work anywhere right now. What's the point of making any beyond what you need to train with? There are so many misconceptions between those 2 things. You can't take the maximum possible output from the factory and multiply it by the best-case scenario for dollars per mile and expect that to be accurate.

Yeah. Also, Dave, at that capacity, it might actually end up costing more. They might have to employ too many people at higher wages. Who knows? The optimal manufacturing capacity could be half that.

The next claim is that rides are going to cost $0.20 per mile. What are you saying—true or false on that?

I'm going to assume, like everything else when it comes to costs and Tesla, that it's just someone's estimate that no one really knows anything about. It's a made-up number.

And that is the answer. It is unsupported as a current fare, but $0.20 per mile is their aspirational goal. That's where they want to get.

Sure. Also, on pricing for Cybercabs, it's so dependent on where you are geographically. A mile in Manhattan is totally different from a mile in Missouri somewhere, right?

Yeah. I think when it comes to anything cost-related, it's probably appropriate to add 50% to Tesla's estimate. Anything time-related is probably 3 to 5 times the amount of time they say—maybe 10 times the amount of time.

The current claim is that Cybercabs will cost less than $30,000. You're saying that's off by 50%?

Probably—up to 50%. I don't know. I think it's probably off to some extent. They might end up in one of those situations where they do have a lot fewer components in them, right? The most expensive part is the battery. The battery is probably worth about $12,000, and the rest of the car doesn't even have a steering wheel, right? It doesn't have a steering wheel.

The batteries are specialized for this vehicle. The motor is specialized. They're using different materials for this. They're using no rare-earth metals at all for the motor.

So, Dave, here's what I think they'll end up doing. When was that price first announced? What year was it first floated?

I have no idea.

Okay, let's just say it was 2020. I feel like he's been saying this is going to be a $25,000 car for years. I think they're going to come out and say they were able to do it inflation-adjusted from when they first made that prediction, and it's $37,000. That takes care of the number right there. That was the target, but they have no confirmation on price or delivery schedule—nothing real in that regard.

Totally. The next claim is that Cybercabs will be sold to individuals and businesses.

Right now, they can't sell anything. They're probably starting the process, I would assume, but there's nothing being sold.

There's nothing. At this point, they're just taking interest from people who are potentially interested in owning a fleet, which is crazy.

Actually, the more interesting part of their business model is that they get money up front for manufacturing a vehicle. They get the markup on the manufacturing, then don't have to operate the vehicle and just get to take pure revenue off the top of the rides.

Somebody just made a comment. Jesse Cumberledge said, “Remember, no one has actually turned a profit with the robotaxi network yet.”

I mean, yeah, it's early, but I also think the comment's right. Wouldn't Tesla just want to be in the business if they wanted to be in that business instead of making fleets and selling them off to people? It just seems like a bad business.

I think they're in the business in just the right way. I think that it's the most—I would think that if Uber and competitors had a way to do it, they would do it.

Yeah, but the quickest way to scale this thing would be to just offer them through Lyft and Uber, right?

Well, Jordan, no. He does not want to concentrate power with 1 or 2 competing companies. He would much rather have thousands and thousands of small- to medium-sized fleet-management companies pop up. This has been the Tesla way, right? I think the biggest thing Tesla has going for it is that there is tremendous demand, both from individuals and small- to medium-sized business operators who are dying to get into this space.

They've been thinking about it for years. This is a cash-flow business. They would all love to buy 20, 40, or 50 robotaxis and operate them as a small business and make a few hundred thousand dollars a year. That's a really cool thing for a lot of people to want to do. From a passion standpoint, there are so many people passionate about this and Tesla. He has massive demand—massive.

And here's the thing: he can get better economics from a fragmented market of fleet-management companies than he could by negotiating with Uber or Lyft. So why not just roll out your own? Why not just operate them yourself?

Because he can. He doesn't have to pay for it. First of all, it's other people's money.

Yeah, that's a good point, right? He has to operate the factories and then collect money up front while someone else is financing the actual cost of operations. And he's getting dollars per mile, too.

But, Jordan, you get to outsource all of the local knowledge and the headaches. Remember, each of these vehicles is going to have to be connected to power. There's also cleaning. Do you think Tesla wants to be cleaning 1 million cars every 3 days? If you think about just cleaning the fleet—

We need to segment it to people who own 30 to 100 vehicles. They're responsible for those 100 vehicles, and they can deal with it.

Yes. It's kind of like Amazon outsourcing its delivery to small businesses in regional markets that operate their own fleet of delivery cars. Amazon does have some delivery that it handles itself, but it has outsourced a lot of it. You get your Amazon vest, and you get to go be an Amazon delivery driver.

Do you know that Mamdani's trying to cancel that in Manhattan and make Amazon employ all those employees? Do you have any idea how high delivery costs will go up if they actually win and force Amazon to do that? Goodbye, free delivery in Manhattan.

Well, not to mention how many small-business owners are going to go out of business—the ones who operate all those tiny delivery fleet-management companies all over Manhattan. I'm not even going to get into it. It pisses me off so much, quite honestly.

But I love the model for robotaxis. I think that's actually the smartest part of this model: sell them, let people create fleets, and just let them deal with all the headaches.

The only thing that Tesla loses there is control over the experience. But they can control most of it with software and hardware. How clean is the vehicle? Are you going to get the smelly Cybercabs? You lose control over that.

I honestly am boggled by Uber's inability to control the experience. It doesn't seem that hard to me. How hard can it possibly be? There's a feedback system for all this stuff, right? Whenever I get out of the Lyft, it asks me. It doesn't just say, “Do you want to give them 5 stars?” It says, “Was the experience good or bad?” Then it asks what was good about it, and I can say it was a clean car, it was a good driver, or all these different things.

I think you have to get that feedback, as long as you're then reincorporating it into the product you're offering.

They're doing nothing with the feedback. At least in my experience, the Uber experience has gotten so bad. I report every car that smells, but that doesn't prevent smelly cars from coming to me. If I were a consultant for Uber, I could fix this problem overnight.

First of all, the feedback system needs to be more one-click for known problems like odor. It should literally ask you, “Smell: good or bad?” every single time.

That's what I'm saying: Lyft already does that. Lyft does those things, right? It lets you pick all those different categories.

I'll start using Lyft. I'll see how I like it.

Use the carrot and the stick. I would give the driver a range of cuts. If they're making, I don't know, 60% to 70%, they can get the higher end of that range if they address this problem or if they have the higher end of the scale in terms of the things that are critical at that moment in time, which might be odor.

So you go all in on odor for 6 months and you fix that problem. This is not that difficult. I'm not going to solve it, but I could. I could.

It's too bad you're not working for any of these companies.

That's just what we need. Maybe it's done in a quarter.

All right, what's next, Dave? Are we still doing this? I think we went off the rails of this game.

All right. But if you want to keep going, I can give you some more.

I like it. What do you got?

All right, so manual-control Cybercabs are coming for consumers. You'll be able to buy one with a steering wheel and pedals.

No, that's not the plan. It's a rumor. It's a claim. I don't know.

It is a rumor. Is it?

The current status of that is completely unconfirmed. Teslas have been seen with steering wheels and pedals, obviously, because that's how they're driving around and proving the concept in these cities, but it's not a retail product announcement.

There are a lot of people saying that yesterday's event was going to be so many things, from the unveiling of Optimus Gen 3 to opening an order form where you could just buy the car tomorrow. None of those things happened.

We should talk about that because this has been bugging me so much lately. By the way, this is why Tesla's stock chart over the last day perfectly reflects reality: tremendous hype on the surface level. Cool. As soon as you start peeling the layers off, you realize that there are 10 times more questions than answers, and the timelines are all over the place. The stock completely got destroyed and came back down to where it was before the event, deservedly so.

I think there's always a communication problem with Tesla. If Tesla had set expectations that this was not a livestream event, but just an employee party where they were inviting some of the friendly media, influencers, and YouTubers, and said, “We're just going to show you what we have and let you ride in the Cybercab,” that's it. We're not announcing anything new.

I think it shows how big of a non-event it was that Elon Musk wasn't there.

He had the people who actually had product knowledge. If he's there, it becomes a show about Elon. If it was that groundbreaking for the company, he would have been there.

Totally. I agree. I think they should have messaged that up front. They should have let us know instead of me sitting here refreshing the X feed for Tesla, hoping something would start.

They should have just told us, “No, this is not a livestream event. This is not a big event. This is what we're calling a launch, and the launch is going to include a 15-minute presentation. Then we're going to let influencers ride around, and the next day we're going to let the general public ride around. That's it.”

Don't get your hopes up for a robot. This is not what we're launching. We're launching a Cybercab, and it's cool. It's what we talked about 2 years ago, and it's actually real. You're actually going to be able to get in one that drives you around without any assistance.

By the way, if they did make a Cybercab with a steering wheel, that's the only Tesla I would buy.

Tesla and Lululemon are down almost the exact same dollar amount today.

Wait, what?

Tesla and Lululemon are down almost the exact same dollar amount today, about $22 each. That is an odd stat. It's just on my screen right next to each other.

Lululemon is the next Nike.

Dude, I'm telling you right now, this guy Burry is out of his freaking mind. He's the one who's short Nvidia and long Lululemon. Talk about a terrible portfolio.

Dude, I hate to say it, but first of all, I've always said I respect the fact that he puts his opinions out ahead of time and allows himself to get ridiculed.

Well, he has to, right? It's going to get disclosed anyway, right? People are going to figure it out.

I guess, man. This is catastrophic. I spent some time on Lululemon this week trying to figure out what he was seeing in it and why it would skyrocket this week. I was desperately looking for ways that Lululemon could potentially beat earnings.

I've also been trying to figure it out because Lululemon was an attractive price. It was what, like an 11 P/E or something? I was like, come on. It's just not there. It's not there. I think Alo and all these other brands are eating into them.

I don't want to hear one thing ever again about how smart Burry is, because I am telling you, there was absolutely no data that pointed to them having a great quarter.

Something's going on with him. He just doesn't—I don't know. He's getting in his head. He's coming up with made-up theses and made-up things to support whatever the hell is in his head.

I think he's looking for some sort of reversion trade, right? But what I think he's missing is that this isn't the dot-com bubble. I feel like he thinks there's too much of a correlation.

Dude, Jordan, none of us should even be talking about him.

Or if you just completely make the most insane claims and bets, eventually you're going to get one right. It's like sitting at a roulette wheel and putting money on a single number. Eventually, you're going to get it to hit.

Burry is completely disconnected from cultural and social norms. He has no clue how people think and behave.

Have you seen how much money he's making on his newsletter?

He's only making a few million a year, actually. It's not what people think. He's not making that much money. It's a lot of money, don't get me wrong, but it's not like $100 million a year.

This guy's too disconnected. No one should be listening to him for anything at this point. It's astonishing. He's becoming the new Cramer. He's literally like he wanted to become Cramer.

The inverse Burry Index will beat the S&P this year. 100%. There's no doubt about it. The ticker is just Burry. Burry, Burry.

Guys, this stock market has never been dumber. Institutions, retail traders—people are so lazy. They're super lazy. I can't tell you how many times I read that some CEO or whatever is buying a bunch of Nike stock, and I'm like, “Is that not a sign?”

Tim Cook was apparently out buying Nike, and I'm like, “Why?”

If you're an investor right now and willing to do even a little bit of actual work to get to ground truth, you're going to be a winner, man. Long term, you'll be a winner because your competition is horrible in 2026. Horrible.

I mean, just the AI trade alone. The number of people who are investors, both institutionally on Wall Street and in retail, who just will not take the time to realize that AI is a real thing and how meaningful it is—that alone is the biggest arbitrage trade in history.

We're going through the biggest thing that's ever happened to humankind, and most people who are trading the market just refuse to see it. They're like, “Oh, I know he's going to buy some Lululemon.”

Yeah, Jordan, it's nuts.

Final takes on Tesla, because I've seen you on so many other podcasts, Chris, and you have another big play that you've been talking about. People are asking about it here in the chat. I need to ask you about GTA 6.

6. Optimus Faces A Reality Check

No, no, no. We have to do Optimus first. Real quick. Again, this is another misunderstanding, because that guy—what's his name? Jason Calacanis, from the All-In podcast—talked about Optimus.

He saw some video, or he thinks he saw some video. He has said on numerous occasions that he has seen Optimus Gen 3, and he says it does amazing things, but he can't tell you what they are.

This is so embarrassing for a guy who has actually spent a tremendous amount of time deep-diving into all the world's robotics companies over the last 3 years, understanding what's real and what's not real, what matters and what doesn't matter, and not falling for the tricks of any of these companies. He makes a statement like that, and he's just a normie. He's a normie walking into a space he knows nothing about, talking about a video that he thinks he saw.

Not understanding what any of the KPIs are, what actually matters, or how much time he has actually spent, if any, talking to and engaging with roboticists—actual roboticists who are working on these robots, people who have come from Optimus, who have come out of these companies, and who will tell you what the real problems are they're trying to solve and what the winning company or winning hardware platform is actually going to look like. This is the problem.

The problem is we have people who are going for attention. It's an attention economy. He's no different. He wants to hype something because he knows that if he says something about Optimus that's spectacular, he's going to get a lot of clicks and views of himself. And I don't know the guy; he might be the nicest, greatest guy in the world. But it bothers me when people talk about things they know nothing about, and then investors get all excited and make decisions based on what they heard this guy say because they think he saw something.

Every piece of intelligence that I've been able to gather tells me—and I've been saying this for a year and a half, and people didn't believe me at first—that the Optimus program is nowhere near where it needs to be and, in many ways, has been kind of in shambles. They've lost a lot of their head talent, as we all know. Everyone was expecting Optimus 3 to come out in March or April. I said that's never going to happen. I said that back in October of last year, about 6 months earlier.

I said they're not doing anything in March or April of this year with Optimus 3. That's not going to happen. Now where are we? We're in, what, September of '26? No Optimus 3, right? No reveal, nothing on the books to even talk about revealing it. I'm still hearing stuff about a lot of arguments that are happening with the hand program.

If you look at the leadership inside Tesla, I cannot identify any bleeding-edge leadership in generalized robotics or humanoids. The team doesn't seem exceptionally talented to me, from what I've heard and what I can see. There are a handful of companies that are splitting all the top talent, and they're all having issues getting to the KPIs they need to get to as quickly as they wanted to get there.

I still am rooting for Tesla. I still want Optimus to be massively huge because, if it is, it's going to be one of the greatest trades on Earth. I want Optimus to be a massive success—not even for the money, but for humanity. Nobody wants Optimus to be a winner more than I do.

Trust me, guys: the second that I start to hear good things about Optimus, 1, I'm probably throwing an insane amount of money, levered into Tesla; 2, I will be genuinely happy for humanity because we need Optimus to be successful. They are going to be one of 3, 4, or 5 companies that are truly capable of throwing resources and money at scaling robots around the world to help humans, to help our civilization, to help our economy, and to help the elderly and people in need.

I want Optimus to win, but it's not winning right now, guys. I hate to break it to you. It's not winning. There's nothing spectacular that I'm aware of, and I know a lot of people in the space. That's what's happening at Optimus right now, unless I'm missing something. So if you're investing aggressively in Tesla right now because of Optimus, just do your homework.

Make sure it's more than just a random guy from the All-In podcast saying he saw a video and they're 18 months ahead of everyone else, when I happen to know that he doesn't even know about everyone else because I know of companies that he hasn't done his research on. So how can he make that assessment when he hasn't gone in deep with everyone else in the space? Anyway, that's my rant. I'm done on it.

That's it. I mean, that's a legitimate rant and a legitimate point that you have. I'm hoping and betting like you that Tesla will be able to pull it off. But it's not a done deal and it's not a sure thing, and there's always a possibility that they'll fail. But I think Tesla has a better chance than most.

I'm not saying they're going to be the only robot that survives, but they have a better chance than many of the humanoid robotics players. As part of a portfolio that wants to be involved in humanoid robots, it is in my basket.

I'd rather wait only because I have a lot of good intel, and I'll probably know when they're getting close. Then I'll throw my money in because money is precious right now, and I don't want money sitting in a company for 2 months or 6 months when I can be putting it to work, getting massive returns on other trades.

The cost of capital right now is really high. The AI trade is on, and every dollar matters. I need to put my dollars to work now. I can't sit around waiting for Tesla to finally hit it out of the park with Optimus. When I think they're about to do that, I'll shift some money over to Tesla. So that's that.

Now can we talk about GTA 6?

7. GTA 6 Revives Take Two

Yeah, now you're going to really see me get frustrated.

I've seen you all over the internet talking about GTA 6. I need to know the latest based on you. You've seen the footage. You've seen the stuff on Netflix. You've actually seen something now, and this is what you were waiting for before. Where are we with the Take-Two trade?

Well, I've learned a lot. I've grown as a person and as an investor over the past week and a half with Take-Two.

I love that you're able to admit that—that you're not already at the top level you can possibly be as an investor, that you have room to improve.

Oh, massive room to improve, always. Because you know why, Dave? The market is always shifting and changing, and the players in it are shifting. You have to play along with the game, right? The game is always changing. So as the game changes, I have to change with it.

I had this thesis on Take-Two that the depth of interest in the game itself, the quality of the game itself, and the excitement around the game itself would ultimately drive the units that they're able to push, but more importantly, would ultimately drive the ARPU—the average revenue, basically, per player in the game—once they release the live version, the online version of the game. And that's all that matters for Take-Two.

So I was laser-focused on the success or failure of this gameplay trailer that they released. This game, people have been waiting for 13 years to see this, and the expectations were so high. My benchmark was that it was going to be a disappointment. They came out with the trailer, and it definitely was not a disappointment.

I read well over 10,000 comments over the 72 hours after that video came out. I want to get through all of the investor comments and get to the meat of actual gamers and how they really felt. There is a subsection of gamers who, no matter what happened, were so pissed off that the game is digital and not coming out on a disc that they're going to rip Rockstar no matter what. There are some gamers who are like, “It's just a better version of GTA.” Of course it is. It's GTA, dude. What are you expecting, a different game? Of course it's just a better version of GTA.

But I will say this: 90% of what I read was astonishingly positive—super excited and unable to count the days until this game actually comes out so they can start playing it. My thesis on the ground truth is that we are more likely than not, based on the 27 minutes of gameplay, to have a highly engaged base of GTA 6 players when the game comes out that the company could then build on to deliver higher-than-expected unit sales.

The unit sales estimates in the first quarter that the game is out to a few months range from 30 million to 50 million. So my assumption now is that they will be at the higher end of that range. My assumption is that the engagement level with the game will be high enough that an educated investor community could then connect the dots to them having a very high ARPU once the online version of the game comes out, which would enable a company like Take-Two to generate $2 billion to $3 billion a year from microtransactions.

But what have we seen about the in-game revenue opportunities? Have we seen anything indicating that that timeline is within the first year of release? Or are we just looking at game downloads in year 1 and in-game revenue in year 2 or 3?

Okay, so Dave, the biggest takeaway is that investors far and wide are so lazy that no one is even taking the time to understand what the benchmark is that GTA 6 needs to beat or miss for this to be a success or failure for Take-Two.

As someone who's been trading GTA releases since 1999, I was trading Take-Two in 1999. Yes, I'm that old. People are like, “You don't know what you're doing. You're late, dude. I've been doing this for 27 years with Take-Two.” Back in 1999, investors were smart as hell. Everybody knew the benchmarks. We were doing deep analysis on the numbers. That's where my brain still is.

But in 2026, it's all vibes. Every time someone comes out and says, “You're crazy to invest in Take-Two; it's baked into the price,” I ask, “What's baked in? 30 million units, 40 million, 50 million, 70 million?” They can't answer because they haven't even taken the time to look at that.

What are ARPUs baked in at? $30 a year? $40? $80? $60? They don't even know what that number means. Investors are so dumb, but it's the reality. You can complain about it, but this is the reality. So how do you win on a trade when no one even understands the benchmarks that you think the company is going to beat?

Even if they beat those benchmarks, if investors don't even know that they beat these made-up benchmarks, then how do you win? It's very difficult, Dave.

Very freaking difficult. And what you just said about the online version of the game: a rumor comes out that they’re going to delay it 2 years. It’s a completely unsubstantiated rumor. Maybe it’s right; I doubt it. But if they are going to delay it 2 years, it’s because the company sees a reason to do so, meaning they think it’s actually going to work to their benefit for some reason. I don’t know why they would. That seems insane to me.

The last GTA, in 2013, released the online version of the game within 2 to 3 weeks of releasing the story mode. So it’s hard for me to believe that Take-Two thinks the move here is to delay it 2 years, because so much of what GTA is involves microtransactions. GTA is the game that proved microtransactions can work on a AAA console game and generate billions of dollars of revenue. They are 1 of the innovators in this space, and they’ve had over a decade to figure out that model.

If you look at what they’re doing with microtransactions in this game, in terms of the number of things you could theoretically do in the game, whether it’s the number of things you can eventually buy that have been rumored and that they’ve come out with, it’s going to be spectacular. But all that hinges on 1 thing: the gameplay has to be fun as hell. We don’t know yet. All we have is 27 minutes, but based on those 27 minutes, you have to make the assessment that it’s more likely to be a killer game experience than a dud.

All right, now people are like, “Oh, but the narrative—the story’s not good.” They didn’t even release the story, dude. What the hell are you talking about? It was 2.7 minutes of gameplay. They did not want to give the story away, dude. How are you complaining that the story doesn’t have a good enough narrative when they haven’t even told you yet? There are so many people who just want to rip on everything in life. They’re miserable, dude. It just pisses me off.

The bottom line is, here’s my trade, because everyone wants to know my trade. I think you guys know this. The day it came out, Take-Two dropped a lot. It was down about $5. Then the trailer came out, and I went all in. I bought massive options on Take-Two—1-day options. They expired on Friday. I sold them the next day and made a few hundred thousand dollars on that trade.

I didn’t sell all of them. I actually let a lot of them roll into the weekend and exercise, and it gave me a massive long equity position in Take-Two. Then this person shorted $700,000 of puts on Take-Two at the open on Monday.

Then there was a BofA report that, by the way, reiterated a $367 target price for Take-Two, which is about a 70% increase. But everybody took 1 line out of this report: “We don’t think the gameplay of GTA is going to move the excitement needle for units,” or something. I don’t know. They still had a price target that was 70% higher, but everybody caught that 1 negative line. It went viral.

You had this guy shorting it, which freaked everyone out in the morning with puts—who knows what, right? You had this 1 random line from a BofA report. You had a rumor that basically said the online was getting delayed. Then people started extrapolating that into delays on the actual game, which isn’t even a thing. You’re so locked in for this November release date; it doesn’t make sense.

Guys, we had stupidity on top of stupidity on top of stupidity on top of stupidity. Do you know what I took from this? That’s the world we live in. So as an investor, don’t fight it. You better not fight it. That’s just where we are.

I lost more money on my equity position on Monday than I made on that options position the Friday before. I ended up being down a few hundred thousand dollars in total, which, again, for me, is not the end of the world. We all know that, right?

I doubled my position on that day, by the way.

On which day—Monday?

Monday.

Yeah, probably smart. So I did lower my position some, and here’s why. At the exact same time, Amazon got ripped. Why? Because of stupidity on top of stupidity. They have a lawsuit coming out of North Carolina that’s going to go on for years, and no one’s going to be talking about it starting next week.

Then they have interest rates going up the next day, which historically is bad for companies like Amazon. But when they’re increasing their profits by 40%, who the hell cares about a half-point interest-rate move? So it goes down another $5.

I need to find money in my portfolio to go in deeper on Amazon. We all know what I do when it comes to Amazon. So I took some money out of Take-Two, even though I got hit, because if I’m going to go in deeper, it’s going to be Amazon, not Take-Two. I have a really nice long position in Take-Two, and I might increase it. Going into this weekend, it was the 2nd-largest position in my portfolio. Now it got knocked down to about number 5.

I still think all the things I thought when that trailer came out are true. But I do not know the timeline for the investor base to come to terms with that ground truth that I believe is true. There’s still a massive amount of risk with the gameplay not being as good as it is in the trailer, because we’ve only seen 27 minutes. Maybe the narrative is terrible. Maybe when the game actually comes out, the fact that it’s so intense, with all the things you have to do to stay alive, and the fact that they made it more complex, means people won’t like it.

There’s still a lot of risk in the GTA release, guys, but I’m still meaningfully more positive than negative going into the November release. Also—and this is really important—I’ve never been part of a moment in time where we needed something like this as guys. Specifically, the male loneliness epidemic is real, okay? We needed a cultural moment to connect, a cross-generational moment where guys in their 40s and 50s can actually all be doing the same thing at the same time. Same thing with guys in their 30s and 20s.

I think this is the most cross-generational game we’ve ever had. I think it’s needed right now. We used to all watch TV on Thursday nights together. No one does that anymore. We all listen to different music. There’s no sense of connectivity except when everyone’s waiting 5 hours for the same hyped-up fro-yo in Manhattan, or a sweatshirt or skincare in L.A.

We’re dying to all be connected about something, and guys don’t really have any of those opportunities. This is it. This is the moment for every guy globally to feel connected. This is our thing. Come November 17th—is it the 19th?—half the guys in the world, pretty much, are all going to be doing the same thing, talking about the same thing, chatting about it, doing it with their buddies.

Even though it’s not online, you’re all doing it on your own. It’s going to be a moment, man, and I think we need it. Just like the Olympics were this summer, I think GTA is going to be a wildly positive thing that you’re going to hear about. If you’re not doing it, you’re going to be like, “I need to do this because everyone I know is doing it.”

Yes and no. I mean, I get your point, and I think it will be a cultural moment. I have 0 interest in picking up video games for the 1st time because there’s a cultural moment going around. I said half. Much like I’m not going to play GTA 6, there are a ton of people who play video games who are pumped about this.

Yeah, no, I get it. I get it. I know it’s going to be a big deal.

It will affect me in 0 way at all.

The biggest deal.

Not a big deal.

The biggest deal.

I think a bigger deal will be the cultural moment of getting my foldable iPhone with a bunch of other dudes who think that’s cool. Just a different version of nerd, that’s all. It’s just more stuff to break. That’s a no for me, dog.

Dave, I was excited about the foldable phone, but the more I researched it, the less exciting it became. They’re making so many sacrifices for it. It’s not going to be what I thought it was. Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t think I want it. I’m just going to get the new regular Pro iPhone.

I’ll probably get the new regular Pro too, mainly because it’s missing the zoom camera, the longest lens. Exactly. That’s important. I was recording my son’s football game yesterday from up in the stands.

There’s a new feature in iOS 27, though, that will allow you to have 2 phones share the same number, and they’ll be able to hand off between each other. That will allow you to have both the fold that you take with you on an airplane to watch a movie and have more screen real estate when you need it, and then you’ll have the Pro when you need to do a Pro-like activity, like filming a football game.

Can I say 1 more thing about GTA? It’s pretty important. This presale data that everyone was talking about was the 5th level of stupidity that people added over the week. They only presold fewer than 5 million, and people were comparing that to the 7 million that they presold in 2013.

First of all, it’s a digital game. There’s no reason to preorder a digital game, guys. Why are you giving them your money now? Second, there are still more than 2 months before the game comes out. There’s still an insane amount of time for those presales to go way up.

Not that it even freaking matters, because it’s a digital game.

But three, the company that created all of this spectacle about pre-sales—the people saying they’re too low—is called Sensor Tower. They are best known for predicting Steam games within a pretty tight margin because they have numerous data points they’ve been able to refine over the years. They could predict pre-sales within 3% to 5%.

Well, guess what they just started doing for the first time this summer? Probably because of GTA, they want to generate hype and get marketing exposure. They now have an algorithm that they’re going to use to attempt to predict pre-sales on console games. They’ve never done this before. We have no history of whether they’re off by 5% or 50%, because the methodology hasn’t been proven, tested, or refined. This is not what they generally do.

They generate pre-sales numbers from about 4 million to 4.5 million gamers in their system, where they can see what those gamers have on their wish lists. They look at rankings and all kinds of different things, but they’ve never really done this in a proven way for console games. We don’t even know if we can trust their data, but even if they’re right, I don’t think it matters. Again, it’s digital, and we have 2 to 2½ months left until this game comes out.

So, again, every single thing that’s a knock against GTA is either false or really doesn’t matter that much. I’ll leave it at that. I have a pretty decent-sized long position in Take-Two. It’s not crazy, but it’s pretty decent still, and I might lever up as I start to see other things and we get closer to the release.

But honestly, guys, I’m on Amazon. If you’re in early on Take-Two, you might get more. You’re not in early on Tesla—you’re waiting to see a robot before you even think about pulling the trigger.

8. Amazon Becomes The Conviction Trade

Yeah, but I got deeper into Amazon this week. I did. More Amazon. I love Amazon. I love it so much. I love it when it drops. I love it when it drops like this because it’s just such an unsexy company.

It’s diversified. This generation of investors, if they can’t obviously see how a company can 2x or 3x in the near-term future, they’re just not excited about it. Amazon’s probably not going to 2x or 3x anytime soon, but I’m telling you, that company is just—I can’t own enough of it. I just can’t.

Every time it drops and comes back, it’s gold for me. It makes my whole week because I start selling other stuff and going deeper and more levered into Amazon. Whatever happens over the next few weeks or next couple of months, I’m still at a point where I prefer to see it drop than go up.

Even though I’m now starting to lever up in Amazon, I still prefer to lose that money so that I can put even more money in at lower prices.

You’ve got a really strong mental ability to do that. I hate seeing my stocks go down, even though I know I get to buy more of them at a lower price.

So, Dave, it’s all about conviction. Let’s just say you had a crystal ball. Let me ask both of you guys something. If you had a crystal ball and 100% certainty around the truth—if you knew factually that something was going to happen at some point in the medium-term future—would you have a lot invested in that thing, but still theoretically be able to put more in? Again, it’s 100% certainty. Would you not want that thing to drop, lose money, and let you go in even deeper at a lower price because you know for a fact?

Let me put on my crystal-ball glasses because I just realized that these are essentially your glasses.

Oh, I don’t like that.

Yeah, they’re not bad. If you want, I’ve got a lot of my glasses. I can give you some.

I actually had these before you started wearing this style. I just found them here at this house, and I use them as my outdoor glasses.

All right, so question. You have a crystal ball. You know factually that something’s going to happen. Would you have a lot invested in that thing, but still theoretically be able to put more in? Again, it’s 100% certainty. Would you not want that thing to drop, lose money, and let you go in even deeper at a lower price because you know for a fact?

My hypothetical situation is flawed, though, because if I had a crystal ball and knew with certainty that this was 100% certain in the future, I’d just want it to go down.

No, I would use the crystal ball to find the bottom, find the lowest price, and then just buy it there.

No, your crystal ball has nothing to do with stock price. That’s what it’s going to end up as: company performance, Dave, not stock price.

So you don’t know how the market is going to react or when they’re going to react, but you know that this company is going to knock it out of the park over and over. That part you know.

So, only a partial crystal ball that can tell you only part of the future.

Yeah, I totally would want it to go down more.

Yeah. In that scenario, yes.

Now, I’m not saying I know for a fact that Amazon is going to do X, Y, Z in the future, but my conviction has never been higher on a company of this size. It’s just a timeline issue and a macro issue, right? Macro could take it down, certainly. There’s always an anomaly that could happen at the company that could take it down. There are unknown unknowns that I can’t even think of.

For the most part, I just want to put more money in Amazon. I know this because I was thinking about it yesterday while watching my son play football. I was thinking about Amazon because I’m thinking about Amazon every day. At some point in the future, I’m going to look back at September 2026 and wish I had gone deeper into Amazon.

I can’t stop thinking about it. I’m going to be like, as deep as I am—even though I’m levered now again—I’m not levered enough. I’m not deep enough. I should be putting more dollars into Amazon.

So, let’s remind everyone: we’re not financial advisors. We’re talking about what we’re doing. My risk tolerance in my account, I can guarantee you, is probably wildly different from anyone watching this show. Although I did see a good comment. This person says that they trade on vibes and Chris’s advice.

No, don’t do that, man. When we’re talking about how today’s traders are stupid because of vibe trading, well, there you go. We’re all dumb money together. Unless it’s in a vibe-specific account—your vibe account—that you literally don’t care about. Do not do that, guys.

I have a Vibe account. I’ll put $1,000 into random options just because I saw someone tweet something that I thought, “Oh, yeah, I could see that happening.” I lose like 8 out of 10 of those, for sure. That’s my Vibe trade for you right there.

I have a limited capacity for vibe trading, and it occasionally works. There’s one more thing we have to talk about before we go, and it’s Robinhood. Did you see Vlad’s tweet last night to the AMC CEO?

9. Robinhood Bets On Tokenized Stocks

Oh, no. I saw his tweet. Yes, to someone about tokenizing.

It was the AMC CEO saying you cannot possibly tokenize AMC stock because that’s illegal. What did Vlad tweet?

His tweet was like, “What’s the problem here? What are you worried about?”

Dude, let me just tell you something: Vlad at Robinhood is an animal. That’s why I’m invested in Robinhood. I’m invested in Robinhood for that exact tweet that he put out last night.

I’ve never been a crypto bro, but I’ve always related to all those guys, and Robinhood is the thing we have in common. It’s that intersection. I’m riding with the crypto bros on this one.

It’s fun because I relate to the guys. I don’t relate to crypto specifically, but the fact that crypto is running and Robinhood is running—I love it when we’re all running together, man. It’s so fun because there’s nothing that beats a crypto bro during a bull crypto market. You just want to hang with them.

I have a few of these friends, and it’s fun times when crypto is hopping. I’m getting crypto memes from some of these guys every day, and I just know they are flying. These guys are psychotic, by the way. I still don’t really get them, but I love the energy. I love it.

This is why I love Robinhood, because I told you, the second that crypto turns around, I’m going even deeper into Robinhood. Robinhood wins without crypto, but with crypto, Robinhood slaughters—slaughters with crypto.

So what are they doing? They’re tokenizing these companies—tokenizing assets, including company stock—not for sale in the U.S., but for other markets, to let people in other countries invest in the U.S. stock market.

It’s the same thing I’d like to see them do for foreign stocks that we don’t have easy access to. Just tokenize it. I don’t care if I own the actual stock or a token of the stock.

But how does that work, though? Does it tie directly, or does it just kind of—

Yeah, no. They would do it one-to-one. They would buy the stock, tokenize it, and have the actual underlying asset in custody.

Under the token, right?

Yep. What’s wrong? It seems fine. That’s what Vlad said, basically. What’s your problem, man? What’s your problem? What’s your concern? We had a monkey tweet that to us.

Vlad said on Iced Coffee Hour recently that they were going to do it for foreign stocks, especially because there was a lot of demand for Korean stocks that none of us can invest in. So it sounds like it’s on the list of things they’re working on. There are some regulatory issues.

It’s a stock market, right? Don’t you want to just market your stocks? That seems like another way to market the stocks. Am I crazy? What’s the problem?

There is no problem. I love Robinhood, man. I love that company. We’ll see what happens going forward. I don’t know what’s going to happen with all this crypto stuff, but as long as crypto is running, Robinhood should be in a good place.

Yep. All right, anything else, guys? We’ve already gone over our allotted time here today. We thank everyone. We’ve got a pretty good-sized audience.

Yeah, we appreciate you guys.

And people are inviting me to be on their shows, which is cool because it brings new people into the social arb investing world, which I think is really important generally. So I'm going to keep on doing those shows. You know, Dave, they invited me to come speak at Columbia Business School. I'm going up in a couple of weeks. I'm bringing a camera guy to tape that too. We'll continue to do our stuff, but we will get our show on more regularly.

We felt bad about this. The problem is Dave is in Mexico.

You can't blame it on me. I have very solid internet and a podcasting microphone. You can't blame this on me.

I blame this on your schedule. You're appearing on 9 other podcasts between our last episode and today. Somebody had time for all of them, but not for us. Jordan, what have you been up to personally? What have you been doing?

I don't know. Hanging out. We went to New York for a friend's birthday. That was fun.

That's cool. Is this going to be A&M's year or no? Football?

Are you talking football right now? Dude, A&M has an uncanny ability to just have a great team and go 8-4. So, yeah, I'm looking forward to getting my heart broken. That's what I'm looking forward to.

Hey, join the team, man. SMU, join. SMU did the same thing last year to you guys.

I know. I'm emotionally prepared to get destroyed again this year.

College football is designed to break your heart, right?

With that many teams, it's pure luck a lot of times. It hardens you, that's for sure.

Dave, are you coming home soon? The weather's starting to cool down. I saw you're having multiple days under 100, but then it goes right back to 100.

I'm going to be there as soon as there's 1 week under 100. I'll be back. No, I'm thinking October.

Oh, my God. What are we, September 4th right now?

I'll be there by October 1st, if not sooner.

By the way, guys, no peptide trade right now. We thought about it. The peptide market shifted. We're going to do an episode.

I'm looking at the questions here.

Oh, yeah. I put them on the screen.

Terns has gone nowhere since we started talking about this.

There's a reason we didn't do the peptide episode. Trust me. Lots of research went into it, and I just didn't have anything meaningful to talk about after that research. The episode didn't come together like we would have hoped, but there was a reason for it. We don't want to do an episode just to talk about something when there are too many unknowns. We just didn't feel like it was needed.

Although, I think that even when we don't have a strong-conviction trade to talk about, we should get back on the schedule, and Friday might be the day to do it. Remember when we had our Friday happy-hour shows, where we came with nothing—with no agenda and no talking points—and we just got on and took questions?

Yeah. I think we should get back to trying to do that once a week, even on weeks when we don't have actual content.

I like it because I know that people like that.

No, let's do it. Let's do it.

All right. Have a wonderful Labor Day, right? Labor Day weekend?

Yes, that's the upcoming holiday. It's a 3-day weekend.