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The Edge Podcast · · 47 分钟

Saturn如何将Michael Saylor的STRC 11.5% Bitcoin收益率代币化并引入DeFi | DeFi Frontier

DeFi DadNomaticEllis OsbornKevin Li

加密股票区块链金融投资技术
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TL;DR
  • Saturn联合创始人Ellis Osborne和Kevin Li正将Strategy的STRC“Stretch”优先股——一种由Bitcoin支持的11.5%收益率产品——代币化并带入DeFi,Ellis称Saylor对将其引入链上感到兴奋。 所谓解锁包括首日实现全球可及性——“阿根廷或日本的用户,只需点击一下按钮”——通过Morpho/Aave获得4–6x杠杆,相比IBKR或传统券商50%的LTV上限,以及通过Pendle和Strata实现可组合性。
  • 团队在定义上划出明确界线:USDAT是由美国国债支持的稳定币,而sUSDAT“本质上是RWA”——不是稳定币。 用户获得对Stretch的全额NAV敞口:如果价格从$100跌至$98,“sUSDAT的用户会感受到这一下跌”,这是有意为之,以保留回锚交易空间,而不是让Saturn以基金管理人的身份吸收波动。
  • 3类DeFi用例构成核心论点:最高86% LTV的循环借贷(3–5x,相比Robinhood最高2x)、押注Strategy在Stretch脱锚时调整股息的Pendle YT交易,以及通过Strata分层为7–8%近乎零波动的优先档和18–20%的次级档。 Kevin的框架是:“我们正在对Stretch做Saylor对Bitcoin做过的事”——降低波动率,扩大买方范围。
  • 规模判断是:如果Bitcoin在2035年达到约100万美元,他们的内部模型认为仅Stretch的规模就能达到5000亿美元至1万亿美元。 其驱动因素是复利:BTC升值叠加每年150–180亿美元的股票ATM发行,扩大抵押品基础;Kevin预计Stretch在Strategy债务和信用堆栈中的占比将从约30–40%升至“约80%,甚至更高”。
  • 核心alpha判断是:TradFi错误定价了Bitcoin抵押品——S&P将其视为“负资本”——因此11.5%的利差就是TradFi针对BTC抵押品收取的风险溢价,懂BTC的链上持有者可以将其捕获。 相较于私人信贷,Ellis以BlackRock的赎回限制和Blue Owl的不透明性为对照:Stretch实时盯市,流动性是上市优先股或固定收益工具的10倍、私人市场工具的100倍,并可即时通过ATM发行。
  • 长期来看,他们认为Stretch会成为“Bitcoin的T-bills或货币市场基金”——所有资产定价所参照的链上无风险利率,正如Ethena如今扮演的角色。 DEX上线将为这一Nasdaq上市证券增加周末价格发现,Pendle YT则会成为Strategy股息调整的“某种预测市场”。
  • 对配置者而言,风险参数包括:解除质押有3–7天冷却期,通过Galaxy以限价单执行并由Clear Street托管;访谈将脱锚可比案例sTheta称为Stretch版本的“步幅管理”(“stride management”)。 Kevin在考虑Bitcoin下跌50%的情景时,引用了sTheta约$98的价格、50%的LTV/抵押品比率和12个月现金储备,相比之下Stretch有28个月现金储备。DeFi Dad称公测阶段TVL约为1000万美元;Curve被列为即将上线的场所,随着流动性积累,Morpho和Pendle集成也在规划中。主持人称STRC永续合约可能刚刚在Lighter上线,资金费率为负。
摘要 · 为研究而整理的核心内容

1. Saylor的兴趣:全球可及性、6x杠杆与DeFi灵活性

  • 节目的起点是一次与Saylor的私下会面。Ellis称,Saylor对将Stretch带入链上感到兴奋,因为代币化可以让“阿根廷或日本的用户,只需点击一下按钮,就能获得由Bitcoin支持的11.5%收益率”。杠杆差距非常明显: “如果你使用IBKR账户或传统券商,最多只能拿到50%的LTV;通过DeFi,借助Morpho或Aave这样的协议,可以立即获得4、5、6倍杠杆。”
  • 2位创始人的履历与产品直接对应:Kevin曾任Artemis首席研究员,在内部推动DAT计划;他还称,在STRC宣布时——或者按他的另一种说法,是STRK宣布时——搭建了“第1个优先股仪表盘”。Ellis自2017年开始挖Bitcoin,曾任职于M31 Capital;他曾对BitcoinFi感到失望,因为BitcoinFi“实际上与Bitcoin关系不大,主要还是围绕恶性通胀型治理代币”。
  • Kevin在自2023年以来持续观察Strategy的过程中形成了这套分层逻辑:Bitcoin是抵押品底层,Stretch是其上的信用层,基于Stretch构建的金融产品则是第3层——“看起来Saylor也看到了同样的事情”。

2. Saturn如何运作——以及为什么sUSDAT有意不被称为稳定币

  • 这是一个2代币模型:USDAT是不生息、由美国国债支持的稳定币;sUSDAT则是“完全由Stretch支持”的质押汇率代币,类似sDAI或sUSDe。这样的拆分让用户可以在24/7环境下无需许可地质押和解除质押,而KYC只发生在稳定币入金环节,即使Nasdaq处于休市状态也不受影响。
  • Kevin解释了收益来源:Stretch的买家实际上是在向MicroStrategy提供资金,后者用这笔资金购买Bitcoin,同时押注Bitcoin的长期回报高于其11.5%的资本成本。再融资能力、资产负债表现金和Bitcoin持仓,构成了对波动的缓冲。
  • Ellis在定义上的边界非常明确:“USDAT是稳定币……我们的sUSDAT资产本质上是RWA。我们不会说Stretch会一直维持在$100。”如果Stretch跌至$98,“sUSDAT的用户会感受到这一下跌”——这是有意设计,以保留原始敞口和回锚交易,而不是让Saturn以事实上的基金管理人身份吸收波动。
  • 具体流程是:用户质押时,Saturn卖出美国国债并买入Stretch;用户解除质押时,Saturn卖出Stretch,将所得现金入金,并用美国国债为稳定币提供支持。Stretch交易由Galaxy执行,资产存放于合格托管人Clear Street。解除质押实际上以限价单提交——“只有在这笔交易能够执行时,我们才会帮你执行”——从而避免市价卖出引发抛压。冷却期为3–7天,用于将周末提交的请求衔接至周一或周二开市时执行。

3. 3类交易:循环借贷、Pendle收益押注与Strata分层

  • Kevin最初的动机,是想在Robinhood上循环借贷STRC,但50%的LTV将他限制在2x杠杆,并带来显著的追加保证金风险。在链上,策略管理人可以将这一资产的LTV推至86%,实现3–5x循环;主持人引用的估算显示,循环策略收益率约为20–40%。
  • Pendle交易押注的是Strategy公布的机制:STRC价格低于$99时提高股息,高于$101时下调股息。因此,“当Stretch脱锚时,你可以确定Saylor会提高收益率。你实际上可以买入YT并获利。”Ellis称YT市场“有点像预测市场”,既能押注股息调整,也为一只在Nasdaq上市的证券提供链上收益率发现机制。
  • Strata合作将sUSDAT分层为7–8%的“几乎零波动”优先档,以及18–20%、波动率更高的次级档。优先档将风险溢价支付给次级档,次级档则吸收优先档的波动,并在没有清算风险的情况下提供杠杆化的Stretch敞口。Kevin的更高层框架是:“我们正在对Stretch做Saylor对Bitcoin做过的事”——降低波动率,扩大可触达的买方范围;优先档近似于Saylor想要的数字货币产品。

4. 数字信贷 vs. 私人信贷:Stretch达到1万亿美元的情景

  • Bitcoin金融之所以先在TradFi出现,是因为DeFi借贷存在容量上限——“如果Strategy要从Aave借入180亿美元,就会抽走50%的借贷流动性”——而20万亿美元的固定收益市场拥有“无限的放贷流动性”。他们的内部模型假设Bitcoin在2035年达到约100万美元;叠加每年150–180亿美元的股票ATM发行、持续扩大抵押品基础,Stretch仅凭1种资产就能达到5000亿美元至1万亿美元,且其在Strategy债务与信用堆栈中的占比将从约30–40%升至“约80%,甚至更高”。
  • Nomatic最尖锐的alpha判断来自对S&P报告的解读:TradFi“把Bitcoin看作负资本”,因此相对美国国债的11.5%利差,就是TradFi针对BTC抵押品收取的风险溢价;“对链上参与者而言,你实际上拥有围绕Bitcoin进行风险定价的alpha,因为我们对它的理解深得多”。
  • 与私人信贷相比,Ellis将Stretch与BlackRock的赎回限制、Blue Owl的不透明性相对照。Stretch实时盯市:“如果支持比率是4:1,你可以增加仓位……如果降到3:1,你随时可以卖出。”其流动性被描述为上市优先股或固定收益工具的10倍、私人市场所有工具的100倍;同时,它可以即时进行ATM发行,而不必支付投行费用。关键在于:“好公司不想发行信贷”——私人信贷通常筛选出的,是早期企业或正在失败的企业。
  • DeFi Dad也表达了类似看法:私人信贷爆雷在某种程度上“只是大金融危机的重演”;Stretch之所以遭到批评,恰恰是“因为它透明、简单,而且你确实可以把它逐项拆开分析”。

5. 终局、下行边界与当前已上线内容

  • 终局愿景是:Stretch成为“Bitcoin的T-bills或货币市场基金”——所有资产定价所参照的链上无风险利率,正如Ethena如今被描述的角色。Kevin预计,未来10年波动率和收益率都会压缩;在DEX铺设流动性,则会为一只Nasdaq证券增加24/7的周末价格发现。
  • 关于永续合约,主持人称STRC永续合约可能刚刚在Lighter上线,并称资金费率为负,即空头向多头支付资金费。一位顾问建议在除息日前后买入sUSDAT、用永续合约对冲;Kevin认为,这一机制应使资金费率向股息率靠拢。他预计,更成熟、流动性更高的衍生品会让Stretch更加稳定,但波动率不可能被消除,脱锚仍会发生。
  • 被问及下限时,Kevin提到sTheta;访谈将其称为Stretch对应的“步幅管理”(“stride management”)。据称,其价格区间在2周前已从95–105收窄至99–101,目前交易价格约为$98。在假设Bitcoin下跌50%且动用50%现金余额的压力测试下,Kevin引用了sTheta的50% LTV/抵押品比率、12个月现金储备,以及Stretch的28个月现金储备。
  • 项目状态方面,公测已在美国及OFAC制裁国家之外上线;DeFi Dad称TVL约为1000万美元。Curve被列为即将上线的DEX场所,随着流动性积累,Morpho和Pendle集成也在规划中。项目入口为saturn.credit,社交账号为@saturn_credit。

核验说明

  • Kevin关于仪表盘的说法在访谈中同时出现了“STRC”和“STRK”;参考材料无法确定他所指的是哪次公告。
  • 访谈将sTheta称为Stretch对应的“stride management”,但没有清楚说明所指的实体。
完整逐字稿

Ellis Osborne

So, we spoke with Saylor, and in that meeting he described that he's very excited for STRC, or Stretch, to come on-chain. Namely, it offers his consumers—in this case, we're bridging this to DeFi—the ability to access it on day 1 anywhere in the world. This gives someone in Argentina or someone in Japan 11.5% backed by Bitcoin at the click of a button. In addition, if you go on your IBKR account or traditional brokerage, you can only get 50% LTV. Through DeFi, you can immediately get 4×, 5×, or 6× leverage through a platform like Morpho or Aave.

Additionally, you have all this flexibility that DeFi enables. This is why we're all very interested in the on-chain ecosystem itself, right? You have applications like Pendle or Strata, and being able to have flexibility there creates a lot more interesting trades and instruments on top of Stretch, as opposed to just the native asset. When we spoke to them, you kind of saw the sparkles in his eyes because, again, it's global access, higher leverage, and higher flexibility.

DeFi Dad

I'm DeFi Dad here with Nomatic. Today's show features Ellis Osborne and Kevin Li, co-founders of Saturn. Guys, thank you for joining us. How are you doing?

Speaker 1

We're doing well. Thank you for having us. We're super excited to be here.

DeFi Dad

We just did an episode with CJ from the Bitcoin strategy team at Strategy. We've talked all about their Stretch offering. Nomatic recently wrote up a great analysis about how Stretch works and how it unlocks this real-world yield backed by Bitcoin.

1. Saturn CoFounders background

There's a lot of incredible storytelling behind MicroStrategy over the years. I think this new offering could be an enormous source of yield for DeFi, and all of it starts with the work you guys are doing. Why don't we talk more about who you are as a team? I want to get right into Saturn after that, but tell us more about what else you guys have worked on prior to this.

Kevin Li

Prior to Saturn, I was mainly working in Artemis, which is a Web3 analytics firm. I was the lead researcher there. I was actually pushing crypto equities internally in 2025, so when the DATs popped off, I took the initiative and started the DAT initiative at Artemis. I started integrating data with all the other altcoin DATs, and we were actually the first data company to create the first preferred equity dashboard because I knew the moment STRC was announced, or when STRK was announced, that preferreds were the future of DATs.

Prior to Artemis, I was working at an Asian fund in Asia and was focused on AI at the time. My boss was a huge STEPN fan, and that's kind of how I got in. I also went to school at Penn, and that's how I met Ellis. I'll pass it to him.

Ellis Osborne

My name is Ellis, and thanks again, guys, for having us on the podcast. I got my start as a Bitcoin miner. I've happily and proudly been one since about 2017. Then I was an investor at a company called M31 Capital, where I focused on DeFi and BitcoinFi.

As you guys probably know, BitcoinFi has been through a patch of turbulence, and I was really upset as a miner myself to see that this industry didn't really have much to do with Bitcoin and mostly had to do with hyperinflationary governance tokens and crazy tokenomics. When I worked very closely with Kevin at university, we ran the Penn Blockchain Club and organization there. We were on investment teams together, and he introduced me to what Saylor was bringing with digital credit, which was real Bitcoin finance happening in the traditional space, with large institutions like JPMorgan, Fidelity, and Schwab accepting Bitcoin as collateral.

Now Strategy was starting to standardize this with STRK and other digital credit products, so we went all in. Our other co-founder is also from Artemis. He built the stablecoin business, and the 3 of us together bring a combination of DeFi, DATs, and stablecoins to build Saturn.

2. Why build Saturn?

DeFi Dad

I want to go back to that moment. It was July 2025 when Michael Saylor sort of unleashed this Stretch product. Again, he called it his iPhone moment for Strategy. Clearly, you guys had a lot of conviction in it early because you started building a product basically on top of Stretch pretty far back.

I feel like the market has now validated you guys in a big way. What I want to ask you is, where did the conviction come from? You're looking to be proven right by the market right now with the performance of Stretch throughout March. It's been on a historic run, and I'm excited to watch where it goes through the rest of March and onward. Where does this conviction come from with the Stretch product in particular?

Kevin Li

For me, I've been following MicroStrategy since 2023, from the very beginning, and into 2024 and 2025. What we realized was that Bitcoin finance was going to happen on TradFi. One of the issues with Bitcoin is that it's very volatile. While we want mass adoption with Bitcoin, the volatility of Bitcoin hinders that adoption.

The beauty of the digital credit, or fixed income backed by Bitcoin, that Strategy is pioneering is that it really unlocks more access for everybody. They strip away the volatility, right? With this convergence of TradFi and crypto, it's really about taking the best of both worlds. What we saw was that Stretch was exactly that representation of both of those elements.

Early on, we thought that Bitcoin could become this foundational layer 1, this collateral asset, and that Stretch would become the credit layer built on top of it. Third, there would be financial applications and financial products built on top of Stretch. That's how we saw the 3-stack. It seems like Saylor is also seeing the same thing, so we're super excited to work alongside him to shape the future of finance.

3. Why Michael Saylor’s excited for STRC in DeFi

DeFi Dad

I don't follow Saylor's tweets religiously or anything, but I have noticed him retweeting a lot of the Saturn tweets, which I thought was amazing. This is Michael Saylor sort of acknowledging that DeFi exists and seemingly liking what he sees. How bought in do you think he is to what you are building with Saturn?

Ellis Osborne

We spoke with Saylor and had the honor of having a private conversation with him. In that meeting, he described that he's very excited for Stretch to come on-chain, namely because it offers his consumers—in this case, we're bridging this to DeFi—the ability to access it on day 1 anywhere in the world. This gives someone in Argentina or someone in Japan 11.5% backed by Bitcoin at the click of a button.

In addition, if you go on your IBKR account or traditional brokerage, you can only get 50% LTV. Through DeFi, you can immediately get 4×, 5×, or 6× leverage through a platform like Morpho or Aave. Additionally, you have all this flexibility that DeFi enables. This is why we're all very interested in the on-chain ecosystem itself, right? You have applications like Pendle or Strata.

Being able to have flexibility there creates a lot more interesting trades and instruments on top of Stretch, as opposed to just the native asset. When we spoke to them, you kind of saw the sparkles in his eyes because, again, it's global access, higher leverage, and higher flexibility.

4. Three major DeFi use cases for Saturn: looping, Pendle, and tranching

You make some really good points about the benefits of bringing this on-chain. If you live in a part of the world where you're privileged enough to be able to get access to Stretch, great. But you're still missing all of the benefits of DeFi: the composability and the ability to, let's say, borrow against that Stretch or loop it.

Looping Stretch seems like the most obvious use case for us. I love the ability to borrow against something that I'm holding for the long term, and earning 11.5% yield is substantially higher than basically anything you can earn right now.

But the ability to loop it—I think you guys had tweeted out some estimated calculations that 2x to 4x means someone is earning 20% to 40%. What are your thoughts there in terms of which DeFi use cases you’re most excited about for bringing Stretch on-chain?

Kevin Li

I think there are really 3 things we’re super excited about. As you said earlier, one of the reasons why we did Saturn was because I wanted to loop STRC on Robinhood. At the time, the max LTV was 50%, so I could only loop it up 2x, and that was about it. If I looped it up to 2x, I would be margin-called pretty much if there were any price movement.

I thought to myself, the beauty of DeFi is that any asset can be used as collateral in a really flexible way. As we talked with curators and the other borrow/lend protocols, we realized that we can really unlock an 86% LTV for this asset. Users can go up to 3x, 4x, and 5x. That is obviously one proven use case in DeFi today.

5. Where does STRC yield come from?

The second use case that we’re also super excited about is integrating Stretch into Pendle. Users could trade the yield of Stretch and actually do depeg or repeg trades in a more capital-efficient way. Pendle splits Stretch into the YT token, and then you can long the yield or short the yield. When Stretch depegs, you know for a fact that Saylor is going to increase the yield. You could actually buy the YT, and when Saylor does that, you can profit.

On the other hand, with the PT tokens, users can fix where the yield is. The third use case that intrigues us the most is our partnership with Strata. Essentially, we create a senior tranche of sUSDAT and a junior tranche of sUSDAT, which is just STRC.

The senior tranche would pay a risk premium to the junior tranche, and the junior tranche would take on the volatility of the senior tranche. In doing so, you would create this 7% to 8%, almost-zero-volatility asset and a junior tranche that is 18% to 20% with higher volatility.

As we bring Stretch on-chain, we actually achieve the digital-money product that Saylor wants to create through risk tranching for the senior tranche. For the junior tranche, you really offer people a way to get access to leveraged Stretch exposure without being liquidated. It’s a perfect way of segmenting the risk and reward for different people.

In some ways, we are doing to Stretch what Saylor did to Bitcoin. Through Strategy, he increased exposure for the people who can buy it because of its lower volatility. We lower the volatility of Stretch and actually make it more accessible to more people. That’s very interesting.

DeFi Dad

Yeah, it’s so cool. There’s so much in there that you said that I want to touch on, but you also jogged my memory about something else: another factor that’s going to be out there playing against this dynamic of the STRC peg.

6. How does Saturn distribute STRC yield onchain?

I saw Steven from DeFi Dojo talking about perps on STRC. I haven’t thought through this a lot, but I’m like, “Holy crap, that’s going to have ramifications on the peg too.” If STRC becomes popular as a perp, I feel like it’ll potentially create a lot of volatility, or maybe it’ll dampen volatility. I don’t really know how it’ll play out, but typically, when DeFi degens get involved, they’re a little overconfident, and I feel like this will have some ramifications on the price of Stretch down the road. We’ll see.

What I want to do is wind back a bit. We talked about all the cool DeFi stuff, but I think it’s worth talking at a high level about how Saturn actually works. Give us the 60-second overview, and then I think after that we should parse out USDAT versus sUSDAT and how those work together as well.

Kevin Li

We have a 2-token model. You have USDAT, which is a stablecoin that earns no yield, and a staked version, an RWA called sUSDAT, which is backed wholly by Stretch. The way that it works is that the price increases as an exchange-rate token. You can think of it as similar to sDAI or sUSDe. Over time, this value will increase as we pass the dividend from Stretch to our users.

Actually, let’s also talk about where the Stretch yield comes from. I would still recommend that listeners go and listen to this episode with CJ. He really talks through all the details about Stretch. It’s very important to understand the mechanism behind it and the risks. But for folks who just need a quick catch-up, remind us: where is the yield coming from for Stretch?

Stretch is essentially a way for MicroStrategy to borrow money to buy Bitcoin. The trade that Strategy is taking on is that it thinks Bitcoin’s long-term return will be higher than its cost of capital, which is an 11.5% yield. That’s just the Stretch yield.

When you buy STRC, you’re actually lending money to MicroStrategy. As a public company with a really strong balance sheet, they’re able to withstand the volatility of Bitcoin through refinancing, their cash buffer on the balance sheet, or even the Bitcoin on the balance sheet. It’s a way for them to borrow.

7. Why 2-token design with USDat vs sUSDat

DeFi Dad

If we go back to the 2-token model, this is a design that we’ve seen in a lot of other DeFi protocols. But, in case folks have forgotten, could one of you talk about why someone would hold the non-yield-bearing form of USDAT? Why is it a smart design choice for you to have these 2 different tokens? What purpose do you use the non-yield-bearing form for compared to the yield-bearing form that earns 11.5%?

Ellis Osborn

The key thing for us is really unlocking liquidity for Stretch on-chain. You can either do so through a 2-token model or a 1-token model. With a 1-token model, it’s quite hard to do permissionless minting or redemption, especially when the market is closed for Stretch.

Having the 2-token model essentially allows you to stake and unstake permissionlessly, 24/7. For us, we just really need to focus on building the liquidity for the stablecoin so users can get in and then stake it.

8. Is USDat a stablecoin?

Also, because we’re essentially working with Stretch, which is a U.S. equity, we would need to KYC any capital that flows in. We can KYC the stablecoin capital inflow, and users could trade the staked asset in a very permissionless way, or stake it in a really permissionless way. It’s a way for us to really build the liquidity of the staked asset.

DeFi Dad

One thing I want to know is, definitions always matter, but even more so now, we’re calling things stablecoins that maybe aren’t. Do you refer to USDAT as a stablecoin? Do you refer to sUSDAT as a stablecoin? Are those fair to say?

Then walk us through the peg mechanisms. How do these things keep their peg, especially if there’s a run-on-the-bank scenario, or maybe something’s happening on the Stretch side and people are thinking, “Oh, crap, we want to get out of our DeFi position”? How do you handle those big flows when people want to take action all at once?

Ellis Osborn

We have to be very careful when it comes to labeling something as a stablecoin versus an RWA. We pride ourselves on being very clear and transparent here. USDAT is a stablecoin. It’s backed by U.S. Treasuries, and it’s pegged to the dollar.

A lot of folks argue that Stretch is a soft-peg stablecoin in TradFi, but we don’t go that far. Our sUSDAT asset is an RWA at heart. We will not say that Stretch will stay at $100. Of course, we want to defend this peg as hard as possible, but this is not a guarantee that we’re offering our users.

We also do not guarantee that Stretch will maintain $100 in our protocol. We give users exposure to the full NAV of Stretch. For example, if it’s at $100 and then dips to $98, the users of sUSDAT will feel that dip.

9. How STRC vs USDat peg works

We did that intentionally, so that you have exposure to the raw version of Stretch and there are interesting trades, like the repeg trade Kevin mentioned. We don’t want to be a fund manager trying to take on the volatility ourselves.

DeFi Dad

That’s an interesting part of Stretch’s story that we covered with CJ. Could you talk a little bit about the dynamic of the Stretch peg and how it holds around $100? I think it actually makes a ton of sense for DeFi-native traders. It’s much simpler to understand because it’s the kind of thing we see day to day with stablecoins.

Ellis Osborn

Stretch is a public credit. It trades on the Nasdaq with a trading price, and the mandate of Stretch is to peg this asset around $100, from $99 to $101. Strategy would increase the dividend rate if it trades below $99, and it would decrease it if it goes above $101. That’s how Strategy maintains the peg ratio.

I think the beauty of Stretch is that there’s a really well-balanced combination of yield, stability, and liquidity. It’s the first asset in TradFi, as far as I know, that pays an 11.5% yield, is stable around $100, and has $300 of trading volume a day. This is the perfect asset to bring on-chain because your entire stake-and-unstake flow will be very smooth.

Speaker 1

When users stake the asset, we would first sell the US Treasuries and then buy Stretch. When users unstake, we will sell the Stretch, on-ramp the cash, and then back it with US Treasuries.

For Saturn, we're actually working with Galaxy on all the off-chain components. We would give them the stablecoin, they would offer it to users, and then they would execute the Stretch. We hold the Stretch at their qualified custodian partner, Clear Street, as our custodian.

The on-ramp process is the exact same process. When users unstake, they essentially submit a limit order, which we would only help them execute if it's executable. If it's not executable, we just don't execute it for them. This helps users because it prohibits them from selling like a market order and starting a downfall in Stretch. It will only execute if it's above that price.

DeFi Dad

And then, is this only open during market hours? Otherwise, people—do you know what I mean? You actually can't sell into the market when regular market hours aren't open, right?

Speaker 1

Our cooldown is around 3 to 7 days; that's what we tell people. If you unstake on a Friday night, it gives us time until Monday morning or Tuesday morning to sell.

DeFi Dad

Got it. There's a ton of expectation management here that's really key for people to understand. And like you said, I think keeping the on-chain asset as close to the off-chain asset and its properties, in the way it behaves, is smart. As long as people don't go into this thinking, “Oh, yeah, this is like a stablecoin that has an 11.5% yield.” No, no—there's downside risk. There's even some upside gain potentially at certain times.

10. The opportunity for STRC to grow alongside $1M BTC

That's key. Just understanding that this thing will act like something that's not 24/7, 365 days a year, all the time is important. Guys, I want to pivot just a little bit and get an idea of size and scope for how big you think STRC could get. This is more fun stuff to talk about for me, anyway. I like to dream about this stuff.

Where could all this go if—let's just stick to the TradFi side for now. We'll ask you about the on-chain side, too. Don't worry. How big could just the TradFi STRC component get in your minds? What are we talking here? Throw some big numbers at me.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I mean, firstly, one of the reasons why Bitcoin finance is happening in TradFi is because, in DeFi today, lending liquidity has a capacity, right? If Strategy was to borrow $18 billion from Aave, it would suck half of the lending liquidity away. But in TradFi, essentially, the fixed-income market is $20 trillion, which is infinite lending liquidity for them.

Based on our internal models, in which we play around with these assumptions, assume Bitcoin becomes $1 million by 2035-ish: we see a possibility in which Stretch can become $500 billion to $1 trillion with just 1 asset. There are 2 components to this. Number 1, as Bitcoin goes higher, Strategy has more space on the balance sheet to issue more Stretch. That's obviously 1. But the other really powerful engine Strategy has is the equity issuance, right? They can issue equity to increase the collateral that they have, which unlocks more Stretch issuance.

Over the last 2 years, they've issued an average of $15 billion to $18 billion per year to increase the collateral base. Over the next 10 years, what people don't realize is that there will be a compounding effect of Bitcoin going up, in addition to the collateral base increasing due to the ATMs. These 2 factors will cause a multiplicative effect on the market cap of Stretch.

Nomatic

Lastly, we were talking with Saylor and the Strategy team in Las Vegas. It seems like Stretch will be the main tool going forward. Right now, it's around 30% to 40% of the total debt and credit that they have. I personally think it'll probably be around 80%, if not higher. So, that's how our assumptions explain why Stretch can become 1 asset worth $500 billion to $1 trillion.

11. Demand for STRC digital credit will eat into fixed income

Ellis Osborn

I think the really important piece here is where this demand will come from for digital credit in Stretch to take a percentage of the fixed-income market. The timing and tailwinds are really strong. If you look at BlackRock's withdrawal limitations or Blue Owl's, these are flaws in private credit because there's opaqueness. You don't know what's going on in this black box.

With Stretch and these digital credit instruments, you're using digital capital. Anywhere in the world, I can underwrite how much Bitcoin is backing the outstanding credit. I don't have to trust another third party. With these traditional instruments, credit is usually used because a company is failing and they need help getting out of the situation. Stretch is actually the product, and it's taking advantage of Bitcoin having these transparent, global, permissionless properties.

There's real demand for this. For example, a treasury company may want to earn not just a higher yield than US Treasuries or a private credit instrument, but also use an instrument that's easier to underwrite and more transparent.

DeFi Dad

Yeah, well said. I think what's so timely about what Strategy and you guys are building is that our institutions are failing us in TradFi. The private-credit blowup is, in part, just a repeat of the Great Financial Crisis. We're discovering that there was a black box that everyone assumed was safe—private credit—and when you start to actually dig into what's going on under the hood, it's not as great of a story to tell.

Funny enough, DeFi specifically—and in this case, what's being done with Stretch—means Stretch is really still a TradFi instrument, but becomes a DeFi instrument through the work that you guys are doing. I think part of the reason it receives criticism is because it is transparent and simple, and you can actually pick things apart and have an opinion about it. Whereas a lot of what's going on in private credit, you can't pick apart because it's actually very difficult to dig into the detail and complexity of what's going on there.

12. DeFi is starving for a yield like STRC

There's a reason that DeFi has grown as much as it has over the years. There are tailwinds with stablecoin demand, tailwinds with bringing off-chain yields on-chain, and tailwinds with RWAs and having exposure to those on-chain and using DeFi to benefit from all the different use cases available through those RWAs. I just feel like there's a lot that's working in your guys' favor. I say all that knowing that you have about $10 million in TVL now live, having gone live in the last few days here.

Nomatic

Yeah, I think DeFi today is really starving for yields, and private credit, as Ellis said, has been a hot topic in DeFi. But there are a few properties of digital credit that I want to emphasize to explain why it's better.

First, the collateral is Bitcoin, an asset that the on-chain economy understands and actually appreciates. One reason Stretch is paying such a high yield is that TradFi has an inability to price Bitcoin as a collateral asset. When you read the S&P report on Strategy, they viewed Bitcoin as negative capital, right? The 11.5%—the spread between Stretch and the Treasury rate—is TradFi's risk premium on Bitcoin as collateral. For people on-chain, you actually have an alpha in underwriting Bitcoin because we understand it much more. So, that's number 1.

Second, because the collateral is a digital asset, as Ellis said earlier, the risk is really real-time, mark-to-market. Every day you wake up, you know how much collateral backs each unit of Stretch. You can get in and out of Stretch because of the liquidity profile. If the backing ratio is 4:1, you can increase your position. But if the next day it goes to 3:1, you can always sell. That's something private credit simply doesn't have. If you look at Stretch, it's actually 10 times more liquid than all publicly listed preferred-equity or fixed-income instruments.

Kevin Li

And it's actually 100 times more liquid than everything in the private sector. The liquidity profile of this instrument allows the entire flow between the on-ramp and off-ramp of the two worlds to be very similar. Lastly, I think the issuance of Stretch is also instant. Say they can tap the ATM and issue it instantly, so when there's demand, they can meet it.

Unlike private credit, you would need to find an investment bank, pay 2% fees, and find a counterparty. The company might not even want to issue credit. Good companies don't want to issue credit, so the credit that you buy generally comes from either a company that's very early and wants to grow or a failing business. These are the reasons why we think digital credit is superior to the private credit that DeFi wants.

DeFi Dad

You just kind of nailed it. When you compare other products in the market with this, they pale in comparison. That said, you have to be long or bullish on Bitcoin in some way, shape, or form. The ability to instantly audit, make your own decision, and then exit with available liquidity is huge.

I see so many things with this Stretch product that they've created that mimic even early DeFi. With this recent Morpho stuff with Resolv, available liquidity is huge. You have to be able to get your money out of some of these vaults, and we're seeing that literally can't happen in private credit. Granted, those people probably should have known going in that these aren't instantly redeemable little piggy banks that you can pull out of whenever you want.

13. Can STRC become the risk-free rate onchain?

Stretch affords you that ability. As you said, if the backing is 3:1 today and it's a little risky for me now, I can pull out. I was happy to take my yield while it lasted, I'll monitor the situation, and maybe I'll hop back in at a different time. It gives a lot of agency to the user, to the holder of this asset, and gives a good reward as well.

You walked through the math in a previous answer about how big this could get on the TradFi side, and I really liked that analysis. If Bitcoin hits $1,000,000, the capital base is growing by $15 billion to $18 billion a year. You got to this massive number that Stretch could potentially be $500 billion to $1 trillion at some point. Using the same logic, say this DeFi product is very successful and other people bring this on-chain—how big do you think the pool of capital represented in DeFi by Stretch could get? What do you think?

Kevin Li

I can start, and Ellis, you want to come in after? The best analogy we have is that Stretch is the T-bills or money-market fund of Bitcoin. In our eyes, it will really become the standard for on-chain yields. From a risk-adjusted point of view, everything will be priced against it, just like how Ethena today is kind of this risk-free rate on-chain.

We think Stretch could become the risk-free rate on-chain. Ten years down the road, I think the volatility of Stretch will also drop. Yields will drop a little bit, and it really just becomes this stable-yielding product. It will be the rate that everything is priced against.

14. Saturn means 24/7 trading of STRC onchain

DeFi Dad

Something we talked about earlier in terms of the benefits of what Saturn offers through a tokenized Stretch is that, normally, you can only trade five days a week. With Stretch, this will be seeded on DEXes. Am I right to frame it up that there's a really interesting opportunity here to have price discovery for Stretch on the weekend and outside of regular trading hours? I know it still takes a lot for this product to scale, but if it can scale, I think that's another huge benefit to what you're building.

Ellis Osborn

I think this is a huge unlock between price discovery and 24/7 markets via DEXes. Along with Pendle, Kevin alluded to it as well. There's a trade where, depending on how high the price of the YTs is, you can basically anticipate where Strategy is going to choose to either increase or decrease the dividend rate. It's kind of like a prediction market. Between price discovery and yield discovery, the on-chain economy is going to give transparency into where Stretch will go next.

DeFi Dad

It'll be hilarious if traditional financial analysts are opening Pendle on the weekend and blogging, trying to predict things based on a DeFi protocol. It would be kind of like—it's been cool to see Citrini, if anybody reads that blog, talking about Hyperliquid a lot. Not even just Citrini—I think Bloomberg is posting things like, “People are trading oil over the weekend while the war is going on.”

15. The impact of perps for STRC

Can you also comment on the DEX component and perps on top of this, getting leverage on these positions? I alluded to this before. I feel like that could lead to volatility, and I think it's just been launched on Lighter, which is why it's top of mind. I can't recall the exact leverage, but can you speak to that at all? Is that a worry, or does that just give you better pricing in some way? What are your thoughts?

Kevin Li

One of our advisors was like, “Maybe we can buy sUSDAT and hedge it with the perps on the ex-dividend date when it falls.” In that way, you can hedge out everything. The funding rate is negative there, so it should equal the dividend rate.

With this hedging mechanism, I think it should always be priced to that, and that's how Stretch becomes more stable as the different derivative products on Stretch become more mature and more liquid. Ultimately, Stretch just becomes this stable asset because of all these products on top of it. Of course, there will be times when Stretch will depeg, and that moment will happen.

To be honest, the volatility of Stretch is, in some sense, a function of liquidity. You can never really remove the volatility, although you can dampen it.

DeFi Dad

I could absolutely see this being beneficial just to have that interest grow on-chain in terms of perps trading for Stretch. To your point, Kevin, the funding rate is currently negative, so shorts are paying longs on Lighter. I don't think that's the ideal setup. I'm imagining folks would love to get paid for shorting Stretch and then be long, holding something like the Saturn offering or holding Stretch in a Robinhood account.

We'll have to see. I can't imagine, though, that perps trading around Stretch won't grow. I see them as two totally different profiles in terms of the folks who are going to want to hold that spot exposure through a product like Saturn.

16. How far could STRC reasonably drop below $100?

Tell me if this is a stupid question, but it's something I've been thinking about, so I'm sure others have. Maybe there's no way to map this out, but what do you think the biggest depeg could be? Calling it a depeg maybe isn't fair, but how much can Stretch drop? Where are the lower bounds? I don't know if you've mapped any of that out before, but I'm curious if you have.

Kevin Li

Two weeks ago, you saw sTheta decrease its bands. sTheta is like the Stretch equivalent of stride management. In the past, it had a 95-to-105 band. Now they've tuned it to 99 and 101, so it kind of matches where Stretch will go.

But if you look at the risk profile of this instrument, the LTV, or collateral ratio, is 50%. The cash balance is 12 months instead of 28 months, so I think it's a good indicator of where Stretch could go, assuming a 50% drop in Bitcoin. Currently, sTheta is trading at around $98. Assuming that Bitcoin drops 50% and half of the cash balance is used, we think it will trade very similarly to where sTheta would go.

With sTheta coming out, it's a good indicator and a good comparable for Stretch in these extreme events.

17. What’s live now on Saturn?

DeFi Dad

Before we wrap up, I want to do a rundown of where we are in terms of the product launch—what's possible and what's coming soon. Can you first tell us what's live and available if someone wants to get exposure to a tokenized version of Stretch through Saturn?

Kevin Li

Today, we are live with our public beta. Anyone in the world can access it, as long as they're not in an OFAC-sanctioned country or in the U.S. You can go to our product page and stake to get access to sUSDAT.

We'll be available as well on common DEXes like Curve and then integrating with the likes of Morpho and Pendle as we get more liquidity and build the base for both of our assets.

18. Closing

DeFi Dad

Guys, I think this is a great place for us to wrap up. We were so excited again to talk with CJ and just learn about the thinking that went into the Stretch product, but I found myself saying, “Hey, this is all great, but I don't want to hold Stretch in a Robinhood account. I want to hold it on-chain and use all the different DeFi products that I love to use.”

So, I will be able to do that with Saturn, hopefully growing liquidity here for tokenized Stretch. So, I want to remind our listeners, if they want to learn more about Saturn, they should go to saturn.credit. Again, the Twitter handle that I think Ellis called out is saturn_credit. You should follow Kevin at kevinlhr88. And then follow Ellis at ellisp_osborne. And all that's on Twitter. We'll put that into the show notes. Guys, again, thank you for your time. Congrats on this initial launch, and we would love to have you back in the future. We definitely will be covering the yields around Saturn in Yields of the Week.

Ellis Osborn

Thank you guys for having us.

DeFi Dad

Thanks everyone for tuning in.