[BidClub_]
Sourcery · · 41 分钟

Planet Labs CEO:AI数据中心为何将迁往太空

Will MarshallMolly O'Shea

航天与国防AI与软件企业经营技术
YouTube ↗
TL;DR
  • Planet上季度同比增长58%,Marshall认为增幅最大的一块来自国防业务。各国对卫星数据、AI分析和自有航天器的需求上升,Planet已将旧金山的制造产能翻倍。其每日扫描提供“外围视野”,覆盖政府已知情报目标之外的区域。
  • 主权诉求正把影像客户转变为本国可控卫星星座的买家。Marshall提到日本、德国和瑞典:瑞典签约4个月后首颗卫星就已发射,一颗由德国出资的卫星则在2个月后发射,而行业通常需要5年或10年。客户明确表示:“我们确实希望拥有这些卫星,以便对它们实施主权控制。”
  • Marshall预计,AI会扩大Planet数据的受众,但其核心业务模式基本不变。O’Shea提出AI或带来另一种商业模式,Marshall则回应:“我们本来主要卖的就是数据。”测试版应用让用户用日常语言提问,使农民、消防员和地方政府无需专业分析团队也能使用卫星影像。
  • Planet的产品体系结合了每日覆盖、定向成像和光谱细节。Doves以3米分辨率扫描约2亿平方公里陆地,并覆盖部分海域;Pelican的目标是在地球任何地点接到请求后30分钟内返回并分析图像;Tanager搭载420个光谱波段。Marshall以甲烷为例说明其价值:“你真的能看到气体”,让运营方及时止漏、节省成本。
  • Planet的轨道计算业务已包括Google测试项目,以及搭载在Pelican卫星上的NVIDIA芯片。Marshall说,Suncatcher测试项目“上周”发射;航天器已投入运行,TPU测试仍待进行。在轨处理图像、再把答案传回地面,目标是把数小时的延迟缩短至数分钟,有望改善野火应对。
  • Marshall主张将AI数据中心搬入轨道,理由是可持续获得太阳能,且能源基础设施更简单。他称,在持续日照的轨道上,每块太阳能板可获得“五倍的电力”,无需电池或备用发电,芯片则由散热器降温。他对成本的判断明确:“最终这一切只会更便宜”(it’s all just going to be cheaper)。
摘要 · 为研究而整理的核心内容

1. 国防需求推动Planet信息业务扩张

  • Marshall称Planet是“一家信息公司”:自动化制造和将卫星从“双层巴士大小”缩小,让公司能以更低成本发射更多卫星。Planet称,其卫星群是首个实现全球每日成像的星座,规模曾超过100颗卫星,不过如今Starlink规模更大。随着需求上升,Planet将旧金山的制造产能翻倍。上季度公司同比增长58%;Marshall说:“我认为增长中最大的一块来自国防业务。”
  • 乌克兰体现了这类需求的形成机制。面对俄罗斯在兵力和装备上的优势,Marshall称乌克兰拥有“信息优势”,通过卫星、无人机和AI监测威胁,在威胁抵达边境前就掌握情况。其他国家看到这些应用后,也希望获得类似能力。Planet提供的是“外围视野”:发现新兴威胁,而不只关注情报机构已知的目标设施。
  • 美国海军利用Planet监测南海1300万平方公里海域,并与地区盟友共享信息。Paparo上将也在监视中国相关威胁,包括可能为中国供货的工业设施。目标是提前一周或数月预警,而不是只提前一天,为准备、威慑和外交争取空间。Marshall称,公司的使命是降低战争发生的可能性。
  • 商业客户包括帮助提升作物产量的John Deere、Bayer和BASF;寻找股票和大宗商品“超额收益”的对冲基金;以及在全球监测自家和竞争对手数据中心建设情况的超大规模云厂商,覆盖中国在内的地区。民用场景还包括野火应对、NASA科研和巴西森林砍伐监测。Marshall称,这些业务也在增长,但国防业务增速最快。

2. AI让分层成像系统更易被更多人使用

  • Planet的传感器体系将每日扫描与客户定向成像区分开来。Doves以8个光谱波段、3米分辨率覆盖全球陆地——约2亿平方公里——以及部分海域。Pelican是公司分辨率最高的卫星,用于拍摄客户指定地点。正在建造的卫星群目标是:接到请求后,在地球任何地点30分钟内返回并分析图像。
  • Tanager的420个光谱波段能为地表物体提供“指纹”,有助于区分树木和作物种类、识别伪装以及探测甲烷。Marshall举的例子是天然气泄漏:甲烷虽无色,但“在这个光谱波段里,它显眼得不得了”。运营方可以及时止漏,减少污染并节省成本。
  • 测试版AI应用旨在弥合影像采集与实际使用之间的落差。NASA有1000人懂得分析卫星数据,农民和地方记者却不具备这类能力。Marshall将其比作电脑获得操作系统:一下子就有更多人能用起来。用户可以“用简单的语言提出任何问题”,工具“会尝试回答”。
  • O’Shea提出AI会带来另一种商业模式,Marshall对此作了有限度的反驳:“商业模式并没有因此改变太多,因为我们本来主要卖的就是数据。”Planet正在增加称为“解决方案”的分析层,灵活度更高的工具则能扩大使用范围。计算主要运行在Google Cloud上,另有一部分使用AWS。

3. 太空计算从更快获得答案和持续供电起步

  • 被问及轨道数据中心是否合理时,Marshall说,Planet“上周”发射了Google首个“Suncatcher”数据中心测试项目;此前,公司已在Pelican航天器上搭载NVIDIA芯片。他称,Google的航天器已投入运行,状态良好。TPU在太空中的表现仍有待测试,随着项目推进,Planet会继续公布进展。
  • 机载计算眼下最直接的价值是提速:在轨处理影像、识别船只或执行查询,然后把答案传回地面。洛杉矶野火期间,Planet在数小时内拍到影像,数小时后将其传回地面,处理可能还需约1小时。如果能在几分钟内把信息交给应急人员,就有望帮助挽救生命。
  • Marshall更广泛的论点从数据中心“说到底都离不开能源”出发。地面太阳能的单位瓦特成本最低,但云层和夜晚意味着还需其他能源;引入天然气或核能则会带来许可审批和时间延误。他说,在始终朝向太阳的太阳同步轨道上,每块太阳能板可获得“五倍的电力”,不受云层或夜晚影响,也不需要电池、天然气或其他供电系统。
  • 散热需要朝向太空暗面的散热器;指令和答案通过无线电传输,会有少量延迟。Marshall总结说,轨道计算“最终这一切只会更便宜”,并预计这能缓解社区对电费和用水的反对。他认为计算是“容易得多”的第一步,之后才是太空发电并将电力传回地面等更宏大的设想。

4. 主权控制将数据需求转化为卫星订单

  • Marshall将主权需求与地缘政治碎片化、以及美国要求其他国家承担更多国防责任联系起来。各国首先需要了解周边威胁,卫星就是它们的“眼睛和耳朵”。他还说,卫星支撑导弹预警以及民用和经济系统。Planet起初向各国提供数据,但客户坚持要买卫星,以实现主权控制。日本正在购买卫星,德国正在为另一支卫星群提供资金,Planet也在为瑞典供货。
  • Planet负责制造并发射卫星,随后“交出钥匙”,让客户掌控卫星运行和指向。瑞典首颗卫星在签约4个月后发射;一颗由德国出资的卫星则在2个月后发射。Marshall称,航空航天项目通常需要5年或10年,这些项目的进度与之形成鲜明对比。
  • 卫星服务并非没有准入限制。Marshall提到受美国禁运的国家、欧盟对应的名单以及联合国限制,并称Planet不向恐怖分子或朝鲜出售产品。公司还有员工小组审查交易,判断其是否符合Planet的价值观、是否可能带来正面结果。他说:“我们知道自己的技术非常强大。”因此,技术如何负责任地使用也是销售决策的一部分。

5. 守护“宇宙飞船地球”是长期使命的锚点

  • Marshall形容宇宙“静得令人不安”:在本地银河邻域已发现6300多颗行星,却还没有发现明确的生命迹象。几年前,他曾预测10年内能在地球之外发现生命;如今他认为“可能更接近6年或7年”。大气特征是寻找生命的途径,他举例说地球大气含氧量为20%。这类证据可能暗示生命存在,但不能构成确定结论,也不能证明存在技术文明。
  • 尚未发现技术文明信号,意味着一种令人担忧的可能性:文明在掌握强大技术后,可能会自我毁灭。Marshall提到核武器和AI,包括技术遭到滥用、被黑客攻击,以及控制风险仍未解决等可能性。正因如此,保护“宇宙飞船地球”——已知唯一存在生命的地方——“不仅在本地很重要,在宇宙尺度上也很重要”,这是“一种宇宙职责”(cosmic duty)。
  • Marshall认为,“坚持和韧性”比时机或最好的点子更重要,同时承认后两者也有价值。在NASA时,Pete Worden保护了团队的一项实验,让他们“把几部手机扔进太空,看看能不能用”,这后来催生了Planet。Marshall以员工留任情况证明团队的投入:最初10名员工中有7人留到了公司成立10周年;到15周年时,仍有约一半人在岗。
完整逐字稿
Molly O'Shea

Data centers in space. Have you thought about this at all?

Will Marshall

More than thought about it. We just launched the first test project for Google last week. Data centers—it’s all an energy problem. In space, for each solar panel, you get 5 times more power than you get on the ground because you can put them in a sun-synchronous orbit that’s always looking at the sun. We’re seeing 2 big trends in the world. One is the geopolitical changes that are happening, and the second is AI. We’re seeing a lot of countries needing our data really quickly. The point is, information is power, and by giving it to these countries, we can help them defuse tensions and make it more likely we don’t need to go to war.

Molly O'Shea

You’re in beta with your AI app. What are you doing in AI, and how does that change? Will Marshall, thank you for having us at Planet Labs.

Will Marshall

No problem. Welcome again. It’s fun to tour downstairs.

Molly O'Shea

We didn’t mention this on the tour, which I think was a big miss, but we’re in the heart of San Francisco right now.

Will Marshall

Correct.

Molly O'Shea

We’re not in the South Bay or L.A., and we’re not in the middle of New Mexico.

Will Marshall

No.

Molly O'Shea

We’re literally in San Francisco.

Will Marshall

Yeah. Few people realize that there is a massive satellite manufacturing facility in the middle of San Francisco.

Molly O'Shea

So why did you choose this location?

Will Marshall

Well, our founding team was at NASA Ames, just down the road near Mountain View, but we all wanted to be in the city where the cool kids hang out. So we came up here. It’s the same today. Look at the AI companies. Anthropic’s a few blocks that way, OpenAI is a few blocks that way, and even the Google Gemini team—you think of Google as being in Mountain View, but the Google Gemini team is a few blocks down the road. All the young engineers want to be in San Francisco, so we go where the cool people are.

Molly O'Shea

For people who haven’t watched it yet, we just came off a tour of your facility.

Will Marshall

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

What did we just see?

1. How Planet Scans Earth

Will Marshall

What we just saw was a satellite manufacturing facility. We’ve made it way more automated, taken satellites the size of a double-decker bus and shrunk them down—you can see some of them in the background here—and enabled us to launch many more at a lower cost. With all of that, we’ve put up enough satellites to image the entire Earth every day, which is the first fleet that has ever done that. We launched the first set of satellites that grew to over 100 satellites, the first big-ish constellation of satellites. Now Starlink is a bigger constellation.

What is all that for? This is what we can talk about now. Really, in the end, this is an information business. We’re selling information. Why? Because we collect all this information about the planet, and we want to help people make smarter decisions, whether that’s for agriculture, to improve crop yields; security, to understand threats around the planet; disaster response; or all manner of applications. The addition of AI that we were just looking at means that more and more people can get access.

In a big sense, we’re seeing 2 big trends in the world. One is the geopolitical changes that are happening—the fragmentation and changes to the geopolitical environment—and the second is AI. Both are huge forces. Space generally, and Planet in particular, are super relevant to both of those. Geopolitics is all about understanding threats around the corner, understanding what’s going on, disasters, and so on. What better than information to help you understand that? And AI is all about having better information.

We can dive into each of those a little more, but basically, satellite data is critical to underpinning security, sustainability, AI, the lot of it. We’re seeing a boom right now, which is why we’re on this floor. We’ve just doubled our manufacturing capacity here in San Francisco, and that’s all because we’re seeing a lot of countries needing our data really quickly.

2. Security Drives Satellite Demand

Let’s go into the security piece of it a little bit. Take Ukraine. We helped to see the troop buildup on the border of Ukraine before the full-scale invasion happened. Now, we help provide data to Ukraine to help them monitor threats well in advance of those threats reaching their borders, to try and stop them and help Ukraine defend its country. I can’t get into all of the details, but at the core, it’s an information advantage.

They’re facing a conventional disadvantage. Russia has more troops, more tanks, more missiles, and more planes. But Ukraine has 2 distinct advantages. One is that they really care about their country and don’t want it invaded. The second is that they have an information advantage, and information is power. They’ve been extremely active in using the latest technology—drones, satellites, AI—to get an advantage. We’ve helped them as best we can with their incredible innovation. They’ve used our data and seen it used in incredible ways.

Other countries are going to Ukraine and asking, “What’s going on here?” They see that most of their satellite data comes from Planet, and they go, “Wow, okay, we need that too if Russia might invade us. What about China and Taiwan? What about whatever?” We also work with the U.S. Navy. The U.S. Navy uses us to monitor all of the South China Sea: 13 million square kilometers, an area of ocean slightly bigger than the United States.

They’re looking for illegal fishing activities, illegal activities like North Korean vessels violating oil embargoes, and Chinese activities that shouldn’t be happening, like building islands or what have you. They monitor that and provide the information to their allies in the region, like the Philippines, so they can all have a common understanding of where the threats are.

Admiral Paparo, who runs INDOPACOM, the United States command in the Pacific, also uses our data to monitor China for threats across the country, including industrial facilities that might supply them. Why? Because he wants early warning of any threat. For example, if China is going to attack Taiwan, he wants early warning. Can he get not just a day’s warning, but a week or a few months? If we can give them that sort of warning, it can help them prepare, deter, and pursue diplomatic options and other things.

The point is, information is power, and by giving it to these countries, we can help them defuse tensions and make it more likely we don’t need to go to war. That’s our mission on the security side. Now it’s gotten so big, especially because people have seen what’s happened in Ukraine and what Admiral Paparo is doing in China, and they realize, “Wow, Planet is doing something really unique: imaging the whole world.” We give everyone peripheral vision of what’s going on to help them see threats earlier.

Normally, satellites before Planet were only used to look at the things people knew to look at: the nuclear facility in North Korea, the Russian missile factory, or whatever. But we look at everything else and find things that might be emerging that they didn’t know they needed to look at. Now countries are coming to us and saying, “Can we buy your data? Can we buy your AI that sits on top to find these new threats?” They’re also saying, “Hey, can we just buy your satellites? We want some of them ourselves as well.”

Molly O'Shea

Yeah.

Will Marshall

Initially, we were like, “Well, you can just buy the data.” And then they were like, “No, no, no. We really want the satellites so that we have sovereign control of them.” So then we started answering the mail on that, and now we’ve done a number of deals. Japan is buying some of our satellites. Germany is sponsoring and funding another fleet of satellites. We’re doing some for Sweden, and these are countries that are now getting their first and best optical reconnaissance system that we build. We launch them into space, and then we hand over the keys so that they get to operate them. That’s also a booming business. This is why we’re in this lab that’s built up: we’re seeing so much demand for all of that.

Molly O'Shea

Is all of the demand on the defense side?

Will Marshall

No. We’re seeing the strongest demand there right now, but we’re also seeing a booming commercial business and civil government business. Civil government includes counties and states trying to use us to help stop wildfires and respond to them, and NASA using it for science and Earth system science. Brazil’s government is using it to stop deforestation, but no one can do that on their own. AI is covering all of that. The satellites and the AI enable this scale.

In civil government and commercial sectors, we’re working with agriculture companies like John Deere, Bayer, and BASF. We help them improve crop yields. We work with hedge funds. I can’t tell you who, but some hedge funds like to work with us to get alpha on stocks and commodities around the planet. We have a lot of understanding of crop yields around the world and infrastructure development.

We’ve even had some of the hyperscalers around here buy our data. Why? Because they want to monitor not just their own data center construction, but their competitors’ data center construction. We have an understanding of data center construction all around the world, not just in the U.S., but in China and other places. We have a wide variety of applications, but it’s true that defense is really what’s driving the biggest boom right now.

We reported significant growth last quarter: 58% year over year. I think the biggest part of that was defense growth. The other sectors are growing as well, but defense is growing the fastest.

Molly O'Shea

Last year at the Reagan National Defense Forum, I had an interview with Emil Michael—

Will Marshall

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

—Under Secretary of Defense—

Will Marshall

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

—for the Department of War, and also the CTO there. Of a few companies—I think it was 3 or 4—he mentioned Planet Labs.

Will Marshall

Is that why you came? Because he said it was a good idea.

Look, again, new technology is changing the nature of warfare. Warfare is increasingly hybrid and distributed, and it increasingly involves new technologies that can help you address that. Drones, satellites, and AI are the core of that. Satellites are less well known than drones, but they’re playing a critical role around the world, whether that’s in Ukraine or in Iran, and other places around the planet.

Molly O'Shea

I have to ask you: What’s the craziest or most surprising thing you’ve seen?

Will Marshall

Oh my God, I’ve seen so many things. When you look at a map, you see something static, but it isn’t. The whole world is changing. If you look at a field, the river will move. Human activity is changing everything, and everything is changing.

What I’m most excited about is what people do with our imagery. It’s a huge range of things. To give you some bizarre examples, we had some people in South America protecting dolphins in rivers. Even though we can’t see the dolphins, we can see the activity that was limiting their range. We’ve also seen people use our data in Africa to stop river blindness. You wonder, how on earth can we help with river blindness? It’s a disease that’s river-based, but we obviously can’t see the disease. It’s all to do with how close the village is to stagnant water, and we can see stagnant water in the imagery. So these NGOs were using it to warn villages, “You’re close to stagnant water, therefore get out of its way,” or what have you.

It’s all over the place. The most interesting applications on the defense side are a little more sensitive, but just know that it’s playing a big role in these conflicts around the world, and I believe it’s really helpful for the planet. As I said, it diffuses tension and reduces the likelihood of civilian casualties, and reduces the likelihood of war happening at all, because the best situation is that we don’t enter a war in the first place. Information diffuses tensions because it means that different sides can understand what’s going on.

Molly O'Shea

This episode is brought to you by Brex, my favorite. You become what you spend on, and I refuse to spend my time on work that shouldn't exist. Expense reports, receipt chasing, and manual closes. The companies building what's next from Vercel, OpenAI, Anthropic, Granola, and Deepgram all made the same call. They all run on Brex. Brex is the intelligent finance platform that combines cards, expenses, and banking into a single stack with agentic finance built in. AI agents that handle expenses automatically enforce policy before spend happens and close your books in minutes. That's why Sorcery runs on Brex, so I can spend time on building and not busy work. It's time to get Brex AF. Learn more at brex.com/sorcery. That's B-R-E-X.com/S-O-U-R-C-E-R-Y. Bye. From handshake to signature faster, Harvey, the AI platform built for legal work, is trusted by 80% of the AM Law 100 and over 20% of the Fortune 500. Learn more today at harvey.ai. That's harvey.ai. AI needs more than chips. It needs power, land, and infrastructure. Zone develops next-generation data center campuses, partnering with AI companies, site developers, and technology leaders to bring compute online faster and at scale. Zone is building the foundation of the AI frontier. Visit zonefrontier.com to learn more. That's zonefrontier.com to learn more.

3. Three Satellite Fleets

Molly O'Shea

To walk through the satellites that you produce—you produce a handful, and they’re all called different birds. I know we talked about this on the tour, but could you walk through the different use cases or—

Will Marshall

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

—the specs for each one of them, starting with Dove?

Will Marshall

Yeah. The Doves are our mainstay scan. That’s the thing that no one else has on the planet: the daily scan of the Earth. They cover all the Earth’s landmass, about 200 million square kilometers, so more than the landmass of the Earth. They cover a bunch of ocean territory as well, in 8 spectral bands at 3-meter resolution.

Then we have our Pelicans, which are our highest-resolution satellites. Those image particular tasking locations that our customers ask for. One is automatically scanning; with the other, you say, “Hey, take a picture of here, here, here,” and then we can do that. The most unique aspect is that we’re building up to a fleet that has much more revisit than anyone else and faster timeliness. If you say, “Hey, I want a picture of Tahiti,” you can get a picture of Tahiti. You can make the request, get the image back, and have it analyzed in 30 minutes, no matter where it is on the planet.

Then we have our Tanager spacecraft, which are our hyperspectral satellites. Instead of having 3 colors like our eye, these have 420 color bands that enable you to get a fingerprint of what you see on the Earth. It’s basically 400 different images for every point on the Earth’s landmass that you’re imaging, with really narrow spectral bands. What that enables you to see is not just that something is blue or green, but what type of blue or green it is, such that you can identify tree species and crop species. So it’s useful for agriculture, biodiversity, and monitoring land. But it’s also good for defense because you can see camouflage and the distinction between camouflage and a real vehicle.

It’s good for emissions and pollution, too, so we can detect methane plumes around the world. If there’s a gas leak, you can literally see the gas. Even though methane gas is colorless, we can see it because in this spectral band it sticks out like a sore thumb. So we can detect those gas leaks and tell operators, “Hey, you’ve got a gas leak,” and then they can turn it off. That’s good for the planet, and it’s good for them. It saves them money. Basically, we have different kinds of satellites that do all these different things. They’re all about collecting better information to help people make better decisions and take action.

4. AI Opens Earth Data

Molly O'Shea

And to the point of being in San Francisco, we’re moving into the intelligence era.

Will Marshall

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

You guys are in beta with your AI app. What are you doing in AI, and how does that change things?

Will Marshall

Yeah. What this enables is an explosion in the number of people who can get value out of data. I used to work at NASA. I know those guys really well, and they use our data there. It’s amazing what they do, but that’s because they’ve got 1,000 people who know how to analyze satellite data.

Molly O'Shea

Mm.

Will Marshall

That’s great for them, but what is that farmer in Kansas or the journalist in Kentucky going to do with 4 million 47-megapixel images every day? They don’t know how to deal with that, right? AI is coming along, and you can just ask questions and get answers. That’s going to totally explode the number of users.

I was saying that satellites are going from a mainframe to a desktop—that’s what we’ve done on the hardware side. This is the explosion in the number of people who can get value out of it. It’s like giving people a desktop with no software on it and saying, “All right, off you go,” so only 1 in 1,000 people can get value out of it. Now you’ve got a basic operating system that anyone can use. Suddenly that computer’s useful to everyone, right? Basically, that’s what we see today. Space hasn’t gone through that transition yet, and I think AI is the thing that opens it up for everyone else.

So it’s not just the big countries. I think it’s actually going to help with a lot of defense and intelligence because it can help monitor large areas for threats and so on. But even more, it’s going to explode the commercial applications and all the applications in civil government. So many things could benefit: firefighters trying to stop and respond to fires, farmers, counties trying to stop illegal activity, people who don’t have permits for swimming pools. There are just bazillions of use cases for our satellite data in principle, but AI enables it to have value in practice for them.

Molly O'Shea

Adding the layer of AI adds another business model. We were joking about this when we were walking over there, because through all the AI conversations we have on Sourcery, it always comes down to compute. First, where are you storing all this? How are you handling the shift in business model? Where are you getting all the compute?

Will Marshall

The compute piece is simple. We put it on Google Cloud.

Molly O'Shea

Oh.

Will Marshall

We have some stuff on AWS as well, but mainly on Google Cloud. It’s not changing the business model that much because we were mainly selling data anyway. But now it’s just exploding the number of people who can get value out of it.

Molly O'Shea

Okay.

Will Marshall

It’s true that we’re now adding more analytical layers toward what we call solutions. That’s already using some AI.

But the AI tools that you were seeing are much more flexible. They’re not so specialized. You can ask any question in simple language, and they’ll have a go.

Molly O'Shea

How good is AI at real professional work? Mercour's AI Productivity Index, or APEX, tracks it with every major frontier model release. Built with partners like Harvey and Cognition, see where the frontier actually stands at mercour.com/apex. Today's episode is sponsored by VCX by Fundrise, the public ticker for private tech, allowing investors of all sizes to invest in venture capital. Learn more at getvcx.com. Public is a multi-asset investing platform where you can automate your investing with AI agents. Create your own custom agent with a simple prompt. Agents can monitor markets, execute trading strategies, and manage your cash across stocks, bonds, options, crypto and more. Wanna buy at market close and sell the next day's open? Just tell your agent. Automate your investing at public.com. Founders scale faster on Deal. Set up payroll for any country in minutes, hire anyone anywhere, get visas handled fast, and get back to building. Visit deal.com/sorcery. That's D-E-E-L.com/sorcery.

5. Space Infrastructure and Security

Molly O'Shea

Satellites, I mean, between what we’re seeing with Planet Labs, with Starlink, and even with geopolitical issues, they’ve just become a really hot topic.

Will Marshall

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

One of the hot topics is data centers in space. Have you thought about this at all? Is it rational or irrational? Why would this make sense?

Will Marshall

We’ve more than thought about it. We just launched the first data center test project for Google last week. Suncatcher is the name of their project. Before that, we launched NVIDIA chips on our Pelican spacecraft.

The reason we’re putting more compute upstairs is to process the data quickly. It’s great if we can do the image processing, recognize the ships, and run the queries up there, then just send down the answers. That means we can get the answers much quicker.

In the case of the LA fires, we took an image within a couple of hours of the fires starting. We got it down a couple of hours later, then had processing time—maybe another hour—and then they got the image. So now we’re talking several hours into the fire. What if we could have gotten that in minutes? That could potentially have meant those firefighters saving more lives, or those other first responders getting more quickly to help people. We want to reduce that timeline, and having compute in space helps with that.

Separately, there’s the question of whether we should just put all the computers in space. Yes, I believe it totally makes sense from a basic economic analysis. Why? The intuition comes down to something very simple: data centers are all about energy. On the ground, you would naturally power them using solar panels if you were just thinking about the cheapest way to do it, because solar panels are the cheapest watts per dollar. However, then you have intermittency because of clouds and nights, and you don’t want an intermittent data center. So then you have to add gas power or nuclear power. Now we’re starting to get really complicated, with much more permitting and much more time.

In space, each solar panel gets five times more power than it gets on the ground because you can put it in a sun-synchronous orbit that’s always looking at the sun. That means you just keep the panel facing the sun, and it’s always drawing power. There’s no interruption from clouds or from day and night. So you don’t have to have batteries, gas, or any of those other power systems. It’s five times more power straight to the chips, and then you just have to add radiators to cool those chips into the darkness of space.

We know how to do all of those things. You can send your commands up via radio and get your answers back via radio. There’s a little latency, but not very much, actually. So it’s all just going to be cheaper. Notwithstanding that, it’s also going to be better for communities that don’t want these data centers in their backyard because of rising energy costs, water usage, and other challenges. It’s just going to be smarter to put that infrastructure in orbit eventually. Arthur C. Clarke talked about these sorts of ideas many, many decades ago.

Molly O'Shea

Yeah. Mm-hmm.

Will Marshall

But now it’s finally becoming a reality, and the first piece is compute. Eventually, we’ll put power in space and beam that down, and do other things, but the first piece, by far the easiest, is compute.

Back to the Google demo: we’re just doing a demo to see how their TPU does in space. We’ve already commissioned the spacecraft. It’s doing very well in space. We’re very happy, and Google’s very happy. It’s very exciting. We’ll test that TPU, see how that goes, and tell the world more as we go.

Molly O'Shea

So there’s increased demand globally. There’s also increased sensitivity globally, and this brings in new national security concerns, especially with satellites. Why are satellites so sensitive and such sensitive assets? What can you compare it to if someone took down a satellite?

Will Marshall

In many ways, satellites are like the sensors of countries. They’re acting as their eyes and ears. Obviously, it’s very threatening if you say, “Hey, I’m going to take out your eyes and your ears.” You can’t suddenly—you’re suddenly blind. The U.S., for example, gets its early warning of missile attacks from space.

Molly O'Shea

Mm-hmm.

Will Marshall

That’s how it knows if North Korea is sending a missile this way. Missiles use GPS. And then there’s all this civilian infrastructure that’s now dependent on it. You use your maps, you use your iPhone—you’re using GPS. You pay for a credit card, you’re using GPS. You look at Google Maps and use the satellite layer, you’re using satellites. You use the weather report, you’re using satellites. People don’t realize how much it’s baked into our lives today.

It also underpins a lot of our economy. The space economy is a few hundred billion a year, but the dependencies amount to much more than that. In short, countries’ security depends on it, and their economies depend on it.

Molly O'Shea

As you mentioned earlier, you’re scaling globally, and there has been more interest from countries. Why has sovereignty become more important, and what are you seeing?

Will Marshall

That’s the backdrop of the geopolitical fragmentation. The U.S. administration has asked other countries to do more in defense and for the U.S. to shift more of the burden to others. In doing that, a lot of those other countries’ first thought is, “Well, I first need to understand the threats in my neighborhood.” How do you do that? Satellites, as we just mentioned, are how you get your sensing. They’re your eyes and ears.

One of the first things countries want is that. Now, they look around the world and go, “Well, who’s produced all the eyes and ears?” We’ve produced more Earth-imaging satellites than any other country or company, so of course we’re one of the first people they call. That is driving a lot of demand right now. It’s very exciting. We can really help countries with their sovereignty needs. We can help them have their own satellites, choose where they want them to point, and control those satellites. They get to do that really quickly. In Sweden’s case, we managed to launch their first satellite four months after we signed the contract.

Molly O'Shea

Wow.

Will Marshall

Normally, in the aerospace industry, that would have taken five or 10 years. We did the same for the one sponsored by Germany in just two months. We can do that really fast, and that’s a complete game changer. There are two big things Planet does that no one else does: the daily scan and the fact that we can launch satellites really fast for people. We’re really leading the world in both.

Molly O'Shea

Who’s on the no-go list?

Will Marshall

There’s definitely a no-go list. First, there’s a list of U.S.-embargoed countries. The EU has equivalent lists. And the UN, obviously—we don’t sell to terrorists or, you know, North Korea.

In addition, we have a group of employees who look at deals and really think, “How is this aligned with our values?” They ensure that we’re going to see positive outcomes from them. We really care about this. It’s something we think very carefully about. We know our technology is very powerful, and we want to be good stewards of it.

6. The Fermi Paradox

Molly O'Shea

Well, this is a difficult question. You have probably seen more images of the Earth than anyone else. First, have you seen any—

Will Marshall

Aliens?

Molly O'Shea

…aliens?

Will Marshall

I knew it. No. The short answer is, we’ve seen lots of funny things. In fact, the U.S. Air Force alien office, whatever it’s called, did ask us for imagery, and we did provide it. In short, there isn’t really anything—

Molly O'Shea

They move too fast? What’s the deal?

Will Marshall

Yeah, funny objects, flying objects, flying devices, what have you. Anomalous stuff. No, most of it isn’t really anything. I’m sad because the interesting backdrop is that the universe is remarkably silent. We haven’t seen any aliens yet, and that’s shocking.

My co-founder worked on a mission called TESS at NASA, which was looking at other planets around nearby star systems. We’ve now discovered over 6,300 planets in our local galactic neighborhood, and none of them have any obvious signs of life yet.

And now we’re still looking, but in many ways the universe is eerily silent. This is what Enrico Fermi called—we now call it the Fermi paradox, after his question—which is basically, “What gives? How come there are so many planets, the universe is so big, and we still haven’t heard from the aliens?” This is a big question. I predict that we’ll actually find life off Earth within the next 10 years.

Molly O'Shea

10 years.

Will Marshall

Actually, I predicted that a few years ago, so now—

Molly O'Shea

Oh.

Will Marshall

—it’s probably more like 6 or 7. The reason is that we’re going to look at all those planets and their atmospheres. With the best modern telescopes we have on Earth, including the James Webb Space Telescope, we can actually detect chemical signatures, doing what we do with our Tanager satellite, but looking out. With that, we should be able to see certain signs in the atmospheres that might indicate life.

If you looked at Earth, you would see 20% oxygen in the atmosphere. That’s a dead giveaway, because oxygen grabs onto anything. It oxidizes iron; it oxidizes everything. The only reason we have this abundance is that life keeps it up—all the plants keep pushing all that oxygen into the atmosphere. If we saw anything like that, we would say, “That planet probably has life.” We wouldn’t be certain—we haven’t seen a picture of the alien yet—but we would say, “That is anomalous.”

We haven’t done that yet, but with all that surveying, I think we’ll probably find life. Still, that could be life that isn’t intelligent. We would expect to see radio waves from these things, and we’ve looked at most of those kinds of things, but there aren’t any. We haven’t seen any obvious signs of technology or technological life forms.

That’s rather worrying, because one possibility is that we reach the technology stage and then blow ourselves up. People seriously worry about this. We’ve got nukes. We’re sort of getting through that.

Molly O'Shea

Yeah.

Will Marshall

Now we’ve got AI.

Molly O'Shea

Yeah.

Will Marshall

Very scary. Obviously, there’s amazing upside potential, like we were talking about, but it also brings real risks, as we saw with recent hacking events and other things. AI could help terrorists build bad things, and we’ve got real risks from AI. Then there’s the whole control question: can we even control it?

We don’t know if the reason the universe is eerily silent is that civilizations blow themselves up when they get to this stage. Hopefully not. But this is why what we do right now to take care of planet Earth—or, as I call it, spaceship Earth, because we’re all on a spaceship, 8 billion of us, as Buckminster Fuller observed—is so important. It’s the only place where we know there’s life. Maybe there are other places, but so far it’s the only one.

Therefore, our responsibility to take care of it and not blow it up is not just locally important; it’s cosmically important. It’s our cosmic duty to take care of the Earth. So, in short, no, we haven’t seen any aliens, but that makes our role here even more important.

Molly O'Shea

Question: are there any conspiracy theories we should be paying attention to?

Will Marshall

I’m not a big believer in them. You’re talking to a scientist here. My friend at NASA used to run the hotline for people reporting aliens, and 90-something percent—

Molly O'Shea

The hotline for aliens?

Will Marshall

Basically—

Molly O'Shea

Like, if the aliens would call?

Will Marshall

No, not the aliens. The people calling because they think they’ve seen aliens—

Molly O'Shea

Oh, gosh.

Will Marshall

—that’s what I meant. Or the “fruitcake line,” as he would call it.

Molly O'Shea

Oh, no.

Will Marshall

Because, unfortunately, most of it isn’t real.

Molly O'Shea

Yeah.

Will Marshall

Most of these things have very similar explanations. Over 90% of them, though, are people observing Venus and not realizing it’s Venus. Even for things we can’t explain—and there are definitely some we can’t explain—the chances of it being aliens are really low. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and we haven’t got that. But it’s fun to think about aliens in our galactic neighborhood, and I think we might see some in the next few years.

Molly O'Shea

Do you have any particular sci-fi movies or books that you like?

Will Marshall

I like Star Trek. My favorite is probably The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, which was made into a film. But the best is the original radio series. Those guys were sometimes drunk doing the radio show, but they were amazingly funny.

Molly O'Shea

Yeah.

Will Marshall

That’s why my favorite number is 42: the answer to life, the universe, and everything, and all the rest of it.

7. Persistence Wins

Molly O'Shea

Amazing. As we close out, I like to take this in more of a personal direction. Our partner is Brex. Um, spending smarter, moving faster. They're corporate agentic finance platform. They're super intelligent, 'cause that's what we call it now, super intelligence. People say you’re a culmination of the 5 people you surround yourself with, or of the people who inspire you or mentor you. I’m curious: who is that person, or who are those people, for you?

Will Marshall

When I was a kid, I was really inspired by an astronomer in England called Patrick Moore, whom I got to meet. He’s a bit like the Carl Sagan of England. I was young, building telescopes not so different from these—just on the ground pointing up, not in space pointing down. One of my teachers took me to meet him, and he was like a god to me. I was like, “Oh my God, we’re going to see Patrick Moore.” So he became a bit of a mentor.

I’ve been lucky to have many mentors I look up to. I did my PhD, very fortuitously, with Roger Penrose, who’s a mathematical cosmologist. But he doesn’t limit himself to that. I was doing physics with him, but he also has ideas about consciousness. He speculates and does amazing stuff in mathematics. He came up with Penrose tilings and made contributions in cosmology.

He also helped prove that singularities could really exist in practice, like stars could collapse into a black hole. The theory was clear from Einstein, but he proved that a nonsymmetric star could eventually become a black hole. In practice, that also means there could be an end of time if the universe collapses. We don’t think we’re in that scenario; we think we’re going to continue expanding. But it’s really interesting mathematics. When you meet people like that, you’re inspired by their genius. These guys are on a totally different playing field.

Molly O'Shea

Yeah.

Will Marshall

It’s very humbling. When I was doing my PhD, he was 70 and running rings around all the other professors, and of course around me as a student, probably coming in half-hungover from the night before. This guy was talking about string theory and cosmology and all the rest of it. It’s humbling to see genius, basically. I’ve been very lucky to have mentors like that through my career.

When I was at NASA, I had Pete Worden, who was a sort of maverick in the space industry. He was in the U.S. Air Force, then he went to NASA to run the NASA center where I worked. We argued a lot, but I learned a huge amount from him, and he really gave us a shield at NASA to do innovative things. That’s where we started with, “Let’s throw some phones into space and see if they work.” Which, by the way, is what led to all of this.

Molly O'Shea

Yeah.

Will Marshall

It sort of brings us right back to where we began.

Molly O'Shea

I guess, to distill that down, what’s the key lesson you’ve learned through building the company over the years, going public, and launching more into space?

Will Marshall

People say startups are all about timing and the best idea, and of course those things are obviously important. But I’d say persistence and endurance are the biggest things that distinguish entrepreneurs who succeed from those who don’t.

Our team has been at this for years, and we knew we were on a mission that was really important to help the planet: security, sustainability, AI, all the things we can envision it helping us with. We weren’t going to stop just because some VC said, “No, you can’t. That’s crazy. No one’s ever launched that many satellites. No one’s ever, you know, whatever.” That determination, that grit, and that inspiration of helping the planet—making the best positive contribution with these tools—is what keeps us going every day.

I was so proud on our 10th anniversary that 7 of Planet’s first 10 employees were still working at Planet. We just had our 15th anniversary, and about half of the first 10 are still at Planet. That says a huge amount, right? They could probably work anywhere. They have incredible skills, but they choose to continue working at Planet because they think the mission is cool. They’re doing amazing things. They get to work on satellites every day, and who doesn’t like that?

Molly O'Shea

I don’t know. People love it. People love it. Will, thank you so much.

Will Marshall

Hey, no worries.

Molly O'Shea

What an amazing place to end it, and congratulations on all the success.

Will Marshall

Thanks for coming.

Molly O'Shea

Hey, it's Molly. If you enjoy our interviews, check out our newsletter, sorcery.vc, where we deliver a once a week top deals and tech headlines email, and also go deeper on our podcast interviews. Subscribe to Sorcery today. And don't forget to subscribe to the podcast on YouTube, Spotify, Apple, or wherever you listen. Link in description to sign up.