史上最大劫案：Mayne 与 insentos 同场对谈
- Ansem 转为看空，认为 AI 盈利走弱与市场结构失灵可能令股市调整演变为更大规模的加密抛售。他指出，投资者开始质疑巨额 AI 投入能否足够快地转化为收入；Amazon 盘后跌约 10%，Intel 跌 20%，Google 盘后跌约 10%。他的基准下行情景是 Bitcoin 跌至 6 万美元中高段、ETH 跌至 1800 美元左右；眼下首要任务是“守住利润”。
- 节目播出期间，Binance 风波的资金流出规模从最初报道的数亿美元扩大到 57.8 亿美元，追回资金的数字也不断变化。Mayne 起初不赞成全部卖出，因为据报 Circle 和 Tether 已冻结约 18 亿美元；之后的更新将冻结资金估至约 20 亿至 26 亿美元。最终损失仍未厘清。后续消息称，资金没有流入 Tornado Cash；这与早期报道所说的目的地址曾由 Tornado Cash 资助并不矛盾。
- 即使其他仓位偏空，Hyperliquid 仍是嘉宾们长期最看好的标的。Ansem 将 ICE 宣布与 Trade.xyz 合作一事，与永续合约及美元稳定币的更广泛普及联系起来；据报 Trade.xyz 贡献了 Hyperliquid 约 50% 的交易量。Ansem 称 Druckenmiller 投资了 Trade.xyz、买入了 PER，并将其视为传统金融资本流入 Hyperliquid 的潜在渠道；他并未说 Druckenmiller 买了 HYPE。Mayne 认为，若未来更多金融活动经由该平台开展，HYPE 会成为“千美元代币”。
- 他们认为，应对回调的办法是预先设好具体买入价位，并明确哪些条件会促使自己改变判断。Mayne 预计 BTC 会测试 75,000 美元，但区分了快速收复与持续在其下方交易；若 BTC 站上 81,150 美元，他对短期走势的判断会改善。Ansem 希望 Zcash 回落至 750 美元附近，Mayne 看好 750–900 美元区间；HYPE 即使先跌破 100 美元，仍可能在 80 美元附近形成更高低点。他们希望在恐慌来临前先回答：“周线需求在哪？”
- Insentos 将新币交易视为一个独立、节奏极快的市场，即使主流币下跌也有交易机会。他举例说，ELONG 因 Elon Musk 在 Druckenmiller 与 Hyperliquid 相关讨论下回复“有意思”而受到追捧，市值一度达到约 60 万美元。交易者需要盯新闻、在多个同期上线的新币中做选择、按可能全部亏损的情况控制仓位并迅速行动；他说自己从未亲自发过币。
- Coinbase 财报讨论显示，多元化业务能在现货交易走弱时提供经营缓冲。一位未具名高管称，现货交易量环比下降 10%，但预测市场增长帮助营收保持持平；预测市场加衍生品约占交易收入的 25%。Armstrong 将 Coinbase 的基础设施、Deribit 整合和多类客户群体纳入同一愿景：打造一个“不需要华尔街”的金融体系，并计划在 2027 年投入更多精力关注客户与产品。
- 关于 AI 安全的讨论并未确定事件成因，但区分了 AI 可能带来的攻击与量子计算的密码学风险。Ansem 多次怀疑 Binance 事件涉及 AI，随后又补充说：“也不一定非得是 AI。”Armstrong 表示，与其担心 AI 破解椭圆曲线密码学，他更担心足够强大的量子计算机；他称量子风险是“时间问题，不是会不会发生的问题”，同时强调威胁并非迫在眉睫。
- 嘉宾们也在寻找驱动因素不依赖 AI 投资的股票交易机会。Ansem 看好 Eli Lilly 的减重业务；Mayne 披露自己以 35 美元做多 Nike，止损设在 32 美元，目标价可能是 50–60 美元。他们也看好 Take-Two 对 GTA VI 的敞口，尽管 Mayne 承认其图表偏空。他们共同在寻找能摆脱拥挤 AI 交易影响的公司与交易形态。
1. Ansem 转为看空，起因是 AI 投资与利润保护
Ansem 表示，上周他从看多转为看空，因为加密市场的技术面恶化，市场对 AI 资本开支的疑虑也在升温。关键问题是，收入增长能否支撑科技巨头的巨额投入。如果 AI 对企业业务的贡献慢于投资者预期，即使应用仍在普及，盈利也可能令人失望。
他举的例子很直接：Meta 上周遭遇抛售；当天 Amazon 盘后跌约 10%，Intel 跌 20%；前一天 Google 盘后跌约 10%。这些都是他当时实时关注到的跌幅。他担心的是，个别 AI 龙头动能转弱之际，指数权重最大的公司也开始让投资者失望。
相比科技股单独回调，股市风险向加密市场传导更令他在意。自 2022 年末、2023 年以来，股票在风险资产回报中一直占主导地位，却没有经历他认为足够深的重置；若市场普遍降风险，波动最大的资产将承压。他承认，Bitcoin 可以被视为不依赖 AI 的通胀对冲工具，但自己不愿押注这一点：其他资产下跌时，持有者仍可能卖出 Bitcoin。
Banks 为行情变化后调整观点辩护；Ansem 则承认：“说实话，我觉得自己转向得挺晚。”节目讨论的几个仓位此前已大幅上涨，明确讨论获利了结早就该提上日程。他最终的仓位并非单边看空：做空 BTC、ETH 和部分股票，现金比一周前更多，但尚未卖出的币仍在亏损。
2. Binance 事件迅速扩大，节目中始终未能厘清全貌
开场讨论很快被首批消息打断：先是超过 6 亿美元，随后出现 Binance 热钱包据称被盗 25 亿美元的说法，另有实时消息称金额为 17 亿美元。Tree News 早期报道称，超过 60 种代币被转至一个由 Tornado Cash 资助的地址，但细节不明。Banks 问这会不会只是 Binance 在调拨资金；当时嘉宾无法确认具体机制。
Ansem 后来读到一份更新，称事件始于美东时间下午 4:20：外部钱包向 Binance 的 Ethereum 热钱包附加 EIP-7702 代码，3 分钟后扫走 63 种代币，其中包括 16 亿美元的 USDT 和 67,000 ETH。另一热钱包则转出 28,000 ETH。该消息还列出 80,270 BTC 和 Tron 上 6.13 亿美元 USDT 的转移，使跨链流出总额达到约 50 亿美元。
到下午 5:52 的更新，报告的总额升至 57.8 亿美元；Ansem 后来将其概括为约 60 亿美元。较早的更新称约 20 亿美元已被冻结；另有价值 7.18 亿美元的 ETH 和 5 亿美元的 USDT 仍可转移，17,270 BTC 则未被动过。消息明确写道：“没有资金流入 Tornado Cash。”节目播出期间，各方仍在更新钱包资金流向和追回情况，最终损失金额并未核实。
Mayne 起初反对 Banks 提出的全部卖出建议：据报 Circle 冻结了约 8 亿美元，Tether 冻结约 10 亿美元，合计约占当时 25 亿美元估算的 75%。“情况本来可能糟得多得多。”Banks 读出 CZ 的说法：用户资金安全；他作为股东而非 Binance 管理者，预计资金能够追回。之后冻结资金估算升至约 26 亿美元，流出总额也同步增加。
3. Armstrong 区分 AI 攻击与量子密码学风险
在 Coinbase 财报电话会上，Brian Armstrong 区分了主持人混在一起讨论的两类风险：AI 发现数学或安全领域的突破，以及量子计算机最终削弱现有密码学。他相对不担心 AI 破解 ECDSA，理由是过去约 40 年里没人找到显著更有效的攻击方法，而且暴力破解 256 位问题极其困难。
按 Armstrong 的说法，量子计算则不同：它需要一种规模足够大的新型计算机，而不只是更好的传统算法。他称这是“时间问题，不是会不会发生的问题”，同时强调，小规模的理论演示远远不够。Banks 对长篇解释显得不耐烦，最后抓住了其中最重要的限定：Armstrong 不认为威胁迫在眉睫。
Armstrong 表示，Coinbase 已开始为后量子时代升级托管系统，但托管端的改进也要求底层区块链同步改变。他提到 Dan Boneh 在 Stanford 牵头的 Bitcoin 顾问会议、BIP-360 和其他提案，并希望未来几个季度内社区能形成共识。另一位 Coinbase 高管补充称，公司已引入密码学专业人才，并正在投资加固系统。
Ansem 更广泛的担忧在于转型过程：“这种事只会发生一次”——先进模型广泛可用时，所有人还不知道它们能攻击哪些系统。他认为未来 12–18 个月会异常不确定，尤其是那些能直接把钱转走的漏洞。他坚持认为 Binance 事件必然涉及 AI，最后又改口：“也不一定非得是 AI。”讨论并未确认事件归因。
4. Coinbase 多元化交易业务缓冲现货活动走弱
一位未具名 Coinbase 高管称，整体加密现货交易量环比下降 10%，预测市场增长则足以抵消这一下滑，让季度营收保持持平。预测市场与衍生品合计约占交易收入的 25%；订阅与服务约占净收入的 49%。这位高管称，预测市场带来的是增量活动，并未蚕食客户原有的现货交易。
Ansem 问，当竞争对手也开始组合现货、预测市场、稳定币利息和机构交易时，Coinbase 如何保持差异化。Armstrong 的回答落在使命与基础设施上：“我们要打造一个不需要华尔街的全新去中心化金融体系。”他列举了 Base、Coinbase 共同创立 USDC、面向智能体商业的 x402 协议，以及去中心化交易所整合等优势。
Armstrong 承认，同时服务消费者、机构、企业和开发者让公司运营更复杂，但也意味着能力可以建设一次，再分发给不同客户群体。更大的机会在传统金融体系：他估计传统服务商仍占金融服务的 90%–95%，金融科技公司仅占 5%–10%。因此，竞争不仅是争夺份额，也包括创造新市场并从传统金融手中夺取份额。
5. Deribit 扩大 Coinbase 产品版图，Armstrong 将更多精力转向客户
Ansem 关于衍生品的问题聚焦于收购而来的 Deribit 平台，以及更有利的美国监管环境。Armstrong 称，公司正在把他所说的全球最大加密期权交易平台整合进一个统一、受监管的全球交易所，涵盖永续合约、期权和期货。目标是让美国与非美国客户共享流动性，打破过去离岸交易平台与美国市场相互割裂的局面。
Armstrong 认为，《GENIUS 法案》以及 SEC 与 CFTC 的合作，推动更多产品得以在美国推出。Ansem 联系到自己使用 GDAX 的经历，并欢迎更聚焦交易者的 Coinbase Pro 回归。他关心的是一个实际问题：Coinbase 能否把机构级衍生品基础设施，与活跃散户真正愿意使用的产品结合起来。
Ansem 质疑 Coinbase 在华盛顿的存在感明显高于在消费者营销上的表现。Armstrong 为 FTX 事件后的监管工作辩护，称 Sam Bankman-Fried 损害了整个行业的声誉；在 Gensler 任内，监管结果本可能糟糕得多。“这不是零和游戏”：监管工作会继续，但 Armstrong 表示，2027 年自己会把更多精力放在与客户沟通和改进产品上。
6. Hyperliquid 与 ICE 的合作将投资逻辑拓展至加密交易之外
Ansem 着重谈到洲际交易所——纽约证券交易所母公司——宣布与 Trade.xyz 合作。他称 Trade.xyz 支持在 Hyperliquid 上交易股票永续合约和现货资产，约占 Hyperliquid 交易量的 50%。在他看来，这一消息印证了一个更大的判断：成熟金融机构可能会在自家产品底层采用区块链交易基础设施，而不必要求客户直接接触加密货币。
Ansem 表示：“我认为，永续合约很可能是加密行业最伟大的发明。”他预计这一工具会在传统金融中普及。相关的稳定币需求也是同一逻辑的一部分：如果数十亿甚至数万亿美元资产在平台上交易，平台上以美元计价的抵押品也会大幅增加。他认为，与美元使用相一致，有助于解释美国机构和政府为何支持这类合作。
他关注的另一个机会是面向消费者的分发。按 Ansem 的理解，Hyperliquid 主要专注于后端，而非移动端界面，因此前端产品仍有空间，可以让用户更容易接触股票永续合约，并加入游戏化设计。潜在赢家不只包括交易基础设施，也包括建立在其上的应用；尽早获得用户的产品会更有优势。
Ansem 还提到生态内即将上线的项目，转录中出现了“Elysium”和“Kinetic/Kinetics”，代币代码为 KNTQ；具体项目名不清楚。他认为项目将于下周、11 月 9 日上线。理由是 HyperEVM 发展缓慢、活跃度不高，因此所谓构建在 Hyperliquid 之上的 L2 有机会填补空缺。
7. 机构持续买入，挑战 HYPE 已成共识交易的说法
Druckenmiller 的参与强化了 Ansem 的看多信念，因为其判断可能带来更多资金。Ansem 称，Druckenmiller 发出的第一条推文就看多 Hyperliquid，并提到投资 Trade.xyz；他还称 Druckenmiller 买入了 PER 并投资 Trade.xyz。Ansem 将此视为传统金融资金流入的信号，并表示这让他开始反问自己为何不买 HYPE。Mayne 对其声誉背书的反应是：“Druckenmiller 一辈子只发一条推文，结果就是关于你？”
Mayne 提出 Arthur Hayes 的质疑：Hyperliquid 可能已经成了过度拥挤的共识交易。两位嘉宾都认为，这不足以成为回避它的理由。Ansem 从仓位角度反驳：早期加密参与者收到大量空投，随后在 10 倍至 20 倍涨幅时卖出，因此他们现在持有的 HYPE 可能比一年前更少。他认为，传统金融买家和大资金已经接走了这些筹码。
图表走势也支撑了他们的判断。Ansem 记得 HYPE 在 1 月 Bitcoin 下跌 30% 时守住了 20 美元；Mayne 则指出，Bitcoin 偏空交易的约 10 个月里，HYPE 始终表现强势。他认为，机构资金可以建立底部，从而打破加密资产必然回撤 70%–80% 的预期。“大玩家已经进场”，是他们解释这一轮走势不同于以往周期的说法。
Mayne 认为，如果未来越来越多金融活动经由 Hyperliquid 开展，HYPE 会成为“千美元代币”。两人都强调外汇是被低估的市场，交易规模达数万亿美元；Mayne 称，部分经纪商提供的杠杆高达 1,000 倍。他们看好 Hyperliquid 持续执行并拓展更多市场；Mayne 将潜在机会比作几年前持有 BNB。
8. Mayne 认为更深回调或能形成更高低点买入机会
Mayne 认同 ETH 和许多山寨币已跌破日线结构，而 Bitcoin 与股指仍守在重要价位上。他认为 BTC 可能回到 65,000 美元，或跌破 70,000 美元；ETH 则可能跌破 2,000 美元。但这并不意味着他全面看空：“大幅回调理想情况下会形成更高低点。”若 Bitcoin 在 70,000 美元附近形成更高低点，可能是有吸引力的买入机会。
他拿 2023 年初作比较：Bitcoin 涨向 25,000 美元后回落至约 19,000 美元，随后恢复上涨。若现在出现类似的 20%–25% 回调，价格会略低于 70,000 美元。他表示，连续 3 周收跌，让短期内形成周线摆动低点变得更重要；若没有这样的反应，他认为跌破 75,000 美元的概率不低。
对 HYPE，Mayne 希望先看到价格创新高：从约 95 美元起涨，冲至 104–105 美元，突破 100 美元这一心理关口，之后即使回到 80 美元，也可能形成更高低点。Banks 披露，自己曾在约 25 美元时将大约一半投资组合投入 HYPE，并集中持有 HYPE 与 Bitcoin。嘉宾们赞赏他的仓位，同时承认自己没有把信念转化为同等激进的仓位。
9. 期权可以限定亏损，但择时更难
Ansem 后悔没有在看到 Meta、Amazon、Google 和 Intel 下跌后，通过买入看跌期权表达对科技股盈利的看空观点。他有兴趣更认真地学习期权，并提到 Derive 的链上产品。Mayne 的顾虑很直接：判断方向已经够难，还要判断行情何时发生，就多了一道难题；期权带来的凸性是相应的补偿。
Mayne 最纠结的是到期日选择：零日期权、周末到期和更长期限，对择时的要求各不相同。他也认为，加密期权的普及受分发方式限制，因为它复杂，而永续合约又太为人熟悉。“永续合约才是终极金融工具。”他们的讨论仍属探索阶段，没有人声称自己已经建立起成熟的期权优势。
Mayne 对期权优势最清楚的解释是权利金：花 5,000 美元买看跌期权，即便到期变得一文不值，最大损失也只是这 5,000 美元。关键在于让市场理解这一点。Ansem 提到一款名为 Dream 的移动产品；Mayne 说自己约 3 年前参与了 Dream 的种子轮。两人提出，可以等其测试版上线后一同学习。
10. 抛售期间，Insentos 的新币市场仍不断出现交易机会
Insentos 带来了对当天行情的不同体验：他说自己在交易低市值 Meme 币赚钱，而不是做空主流币。他区分了买入成熟 Meme 币与“新盘交易”，后者主要是交易新创建的交易对。Bitcoin 下跌并不意味着所有机会消失；新消息仍可能催生市值达到数十万美元的新币。
他举的例子是 ELONG：Elon Musk 在 Druckenmiller 与 Hyperliquid 相关讨论下回复“有意思”后，有人据此创建了这枚币。他称其市值一度达到约 60 万美元，自己也做成了一笔不错的交易。Ansem 承认，自己甚至不知道这类市场会围绕那条消息出现。Mayne 感叹：“如果这样就能发出一枚币，那我真是跟不上了。”这反映了他们交易环境的差异。
Insentos 使用 Twitter 监控工具，但他表示，新币信息流本身也能帮助发现新闻：先注意到某个新币正在吸引关注，再去查它为何上涨。他目前重新专注于自己熟悉的流程；此前一个月，他曾尝试拓展至主流币和永续合约波段交易。那轮下跌让他“被打得很惨”之后，他又回到了擅长的领域。
11. 发币与交易新币，背后存在重叠的利益动机
Ansem 追问，交易新币、发行新币、买入供应量和打包交易之间，真正的道德界线在哪里。他认为这个生态对不同做法的评判并不一致。Insentos 表示，新盘交易者亲自发币通常会被看低，而他自己从未发过币；但他不认为每一种发币行为都天然有问题。
他的解释是，交易者有时发币，是因为希望某个版本的叙事存在，也想买到“正确的币”。他们可能会持有一部分供应量，之后再卖出；但他认为这与更受诟病的“Proxima 打包”和挖矿操作不同。讨论没有给出明确的技术或伦理界线，无法解决所有案例。
多个币同时上线，让问题变得具体。Ansem 描述过交易者同时买入同一叙事的多个版本，有些亏损后再给最终胜出的币加仓。Mayne 问他们是否会预先设定仓位大小；Insentos 强调，如果底层叙事失败，即使买入 5 个候选币，也可能 5 个全部亏损。因此，风险预算必须能承受整篮子仓位全部失败。
12. 验证新盘交易优势，需要匹配持有周期与执行方式
Mayne 想检验一个说法：要在新盘交易中获利，就必须有内部协作。他提议与 Insentos 交换技能：教 Insentos 做永续合约交易，自己则学习新币执行。Banks 建议安排一周、每天进行指导，再分别用约 10 万美元的新账户比较结果。使用不公开身份的钱包，有助于区分可复制的交易能力与公开身份带来的优势。
Kimchi 上线案例显示，看似内幕交易的操作可能有更简单的解释。Mayne 说，关注相关事件的人都能预料到会有一枚币出现。Insentos 表示自己连续两次买错版本；Mayne 也买了一个亏损版本。事后看，最终赢家似乎显而易见，却掩盖了事前那些失败的候选币和判断的不确定性。
持有周期也是误解的来源。Mayne 说自己的 FOMO 账户亏了约 15 万美元，因为他会把仓位持有约 50 天；其他交易者认为问题就在这里。Banks 透露，一个未公开的账户此前浮盈约 25 万美元，现在浮盈约 10 万美元；他的目标是在揭晓账户前实现 100 万美元已实现收益。
Mayne 还谈到交易风格随年龄变化：现在他更偏好日线图形，而不是持续剥头皮交易。他用篮球作比：“别再靠年轻时跑得快打球，要练出低位背打。”过去，他曾把盯盘时间越长等同于赚得越多，如今不再接受这种关系。不同交易节奏都可能建立优势，不必持续进行同样强度的交易。
13. 要再造巨额 Meme 币，参与者还得多得多
Mayne 质疑，过去的大赢家是否让人对新 Meme 币抱有不切实际的预期。Banks 回忆，PEPE 市值曾达到约 120 亿美元，WIF 约 50 亿美元；两人还谈到 Shiba Inu 曾在约 400 亿至 450 亿美元，Dogecoin 则接近 750 亿美元。Insentos 认为，在如今“快速轮动的市场”里，连 10 亿至 20 亿美元都很难达到，因为注意力和资金很快就会转向下一次发行。
Banks 认为，仍有可能再出现一个巨型赢家，但它必须走出 Crypto Twitter 的受众和交易习惯。他设想某个 Meme 币在现有圈子之外广为人知，吸引数百万持有者，或获得纯 Meme 属性以外的用途；另一种可能是社区异常坚定，长期支持它。Mayne 认为，若要实现这种扩张，TikTok 或类似的广泛分发渠道很可能很重要。
Ansem 提出另一条通往同一结果的基础设施路径：移动应用、股票永续合约，以及规模大得多的链上资产池。如果数千亿美元甚至数万亿美元资产在用户日常交易的平台上流动，部分用户可能会进一步探索其他链上资产。Insentos 的说法更直接：市场需要“更多玩家”，他们原本可能在体育博彩或玩二十一点。
14. Zcash 跌破支撑，Ansem 将理想买入价下移至 750 美元
Ansem 表示，Zcash 未能守住约 1,400 美元，是一个早期预警，因为最强势的币之一开始表现疲软。按他目前的情景——ETH 约 1,800 美元、Bitcoin 位于 6 万美元中高段——他希望在 Zcash 跌至约 750 美元时考虑买入。他的看多取决于市场进一步重置，而不是断言当前跌势已经结束。
Mayne 认为，750–900 美元可能是不错的价值区间，因为那里会回测过去的历史高位区域。Ansem 尤其看好 750 美元，将其与更早的高点以及 2025 年的高点联系起来。他称这个价位可以“闭着眼重仓买”，同时承认若要到达该位置，股市还得大幅走弱。
被问到为何没有同样看好 Monero 等隐私币时，Ansem 的解释在于买家群体：“有钱的 Bitcoin 持有者已经认定，Zcash 才是 Bitcoin 的隐私版本。”他愿意跟随这股需求，而非与其争辩。他仍认为 Monero 的图表不错；两者的区别在于谁在支持，以及资金集中在哪边。
Banks 将讨论联系到 Tool King 对“能当钱的币”和“能赚钱的币”的区分。Mayne 认为，这两类币加上明确投机性的 Meme 币，都会得到市场关注。他对中间地带较不乐观：那些靠“某些随机的破事”声称有实用价值，却既不具货币属性、也没有实质盈利能力的代币。他认为，这套估值框架正在变得清晰。
15. AI 股票的盈利可能掩盖抛物线走势破裂的风险
Ansem 担心，存储芯片股的盈利表现会让持有者更不愿卖出，即使它们此前已经大幅上涨。即便一只股票按投资者的说法只有 7 倍盈利估值，也可能已经上涨 20 倍，或在一年内从约 1,000 亿美元升至 1 万亿美元。他担心，当前盈利看起来便宜，会让投资者忽视拥挤交易本身的走势风险。
他将其比作山寨币：第一次上涨 10 倍后再涨 10 倍，会让持有者误以为普通的止盈纪律已不再适用，直到价格下跌 70%–80%。“所有资产的抛物线走势，最终表现都一模一样。”Ansem 说，即使一些存储芯片股已从高点跌约 30%，今年以来仍上涨约 3 倍。
Mayne 认为，黄金也需要重置。他说：“我认为黄金会跌破 4,000 美元”，大幅回落后再筑底；他希望在 3,800–3,700 美元附近买入。Ansem 认同黄金已经走出抛物线行情。他们的意思是，价格加速上涨、随后反转的模式，商品、科技股和加密资产都可能出现。
令人不安的反向情景是：Bitcoin 的反弹可能只是逆势，而股市此时才刚开始下跌。Mayne 表示，股市若回调 20%，Bitcoin 仍可能下跌约 35%，甚至跌向 50,000 美元。Ansem 目前还不认同这一判断，但承认其逻辑成立。加密市场可能先于股市见底，就像 Bitcoin 也可能先于相关上市公司股票见底。
16. Eli Lilly、Nike 与 Take-Two 提供了脱离 AI 投资周期的交易标的
Ansem 点名 Eli Lilly，称这只股票形态不错；Tool King 曾告诉他，Eli Lilly 是自己远超其他仓位的最大持仓。他的投资逻辑围绕有效的减重药物，以及人们希望变得更健康所带来的持续需求。他认为，这项业务与 AI 过度投资的关联相对较小，未来几年有望创造可观利润。
Mayne 披露自己以 35 美元做多 Nike，止损设在 32 美元，并看好股价可能反弹至 50–60 美元。他的依据是：公司经历了约 5 年熊市后有望均值回归，品牌仍有客户吸引力，且在普遍看空的背景下盈利仍超预期。Ansem 起初问：“真的？为什么？”看过图表后才意识到股价已跌约 80%。
Ansem 对 Nike 的条件判断是，若股价反弹至约 39–40 美元上方，可能打开通往 50 美元缺口区域的空间。他同意应寻找 AI 之外的公司，因为 AI 板块回调时，这些公司可能有不同表现。Mayne 将选股范围扩大到大宗商品和零售；他们共同偏好驱动因素各异的公司，具体交易仍由价位决定。
GTA VI 及其后续在线业务让他们看好 Take-Two。Mayne 承认图表偏空，但认为这款游戏可能成为史上销量最高的游戏；他比较了 GTA 上一轮发售时期股价约 20 美元与如今约 200 美元的走势。他们看好股价在摆动低点附近的表现，也接受跌破 185 美元的可能。Mayne 对此还有个人理由：他 36 岁，打算在游戏发售日请假去玩。
17. 如果数字所有权更容易展示，NFT 仍有身份地位投资逻辑
Banks 仍看好长期数字产权，包括建筑、虚拟地产、皮肤和收藏品。他称 CryptoPunks 是“数字毕加索”。Mayne 持有一个 Punk，部分是为了获得历史标的敞口；他指出，这个系列已经经历多个周期。他们强调的是可识别的出处与稀缺性，而不是认为所有被遗弃的 NFT 项目都会随之复苏。
他们设想的最具体场景，是一个类似《头号玩家》的世界，参与规模达到社交平台级别。Banks 问，如果数十亿人都能看到某个 CryptoPunk 持有者在虚拟世界中走动，这个外星人头像意味着什么：持有者是 2017 年就入场的人，还是后来有能力花数千万美元的人？Mayne 将这一想法联系到人们对独特 Counter-Strike 皮肤的长期需求。
Insentos 认为，缺少的是整合。人们已经愿意花 5 万至 10 万美元购买抢手的社交媒体用户名，因为它们是可见的身份标识；若能把 NFT 更直接地绑定到账户，也能发挥类似作用。Banks 将这种需求联系到人们购买手表、超级跑车和艺术品的行为。这个潜在用途取决于平台能否让其他用户看见所有权。
Banks 还强调，CryptoPunks 在他所说的“NFT 末日”中相对抗跌；当时许多其他系列跌了 99.9%，NFT 也一度不再时髦。Mayne 指出，即便地板价在 6 万美元左右，依然很贵。对他们来说，整个行业崩盘后价格仍维持在高位，足以支持保留部分敞口；更大的整合逻辑则仍面向未来。
18. 看好 Anthropic，也要考虑强大的本地模型
Mayne 相对看好 Anthropic，称公司过去几个月已实现现金流为正。他理解市场对其商业模式的担忧：似乎要花 2–3 美元才能赚 1 美元；但他认为，最近几个月的情况改变了判断。IPO 仍可能成为阶段性顶部：他设想股价初期上涨，随后股市回调，并将这种可能路径与 SpaceX IPO 作比较。
他的保留意见来自一位懂技术的朋友。对方认为，本地模型的能力将接近前沿模型的 90%–95%，同时完全运行在手机上。Mayne 将其视为未来可能实现的能力，并非已经验证的表现。这是他在看好公司及产品实用性的同时，仍会考虑的竞争不确定性。
Banks 则以 Instinct 说明 AI 产品的吸引力。这是一款仅限受邀者使用的助手；他的经理和 Frank 都曾称赞它。他举例说，用户可以发短信要求把气球、鲜花和个性化卡片送到女友的酒店房间，也可以让它预订航班和晚餐。他是在转述听来的能力，讨论并未证实他本人使用过。
19. 财富保护讨论演变为该为多大程度的社会扰动作准备
Mayne 说，Drew Tang 一直提醒他：“交易所之后就是银行”，并建议准备实体现金、黄金和白银。讨论中的金额包括 1 万美元现金和 1 万至 2 万美元黄金。Mayne 理解人们想保护子女和后代的想法，但质疑是否需要走得太远：搬进树林、取出银行存款、放弃正常生活，本身也可能成为负担。
他举的最鲜明例子，是朋友讲述葡萄牙一次持续最长 72 小时的停电：第一晚大家点蜡烛、开派对；随后冷藏、供水和基本服务相继中断，据说第二天就开始发生抢劫。Ansem 认为，低成本的准备可以视为加密货币所倡导的自我依靠精神的延伸。两人仍希望这些担忧最终只是“虚惊一场”，也都不声称知道事态会如何发展。
20. 油价持续坚挺，令市场重置希望更复杂
Ansem 和 Mayne 都不认为，结束伊朗冲突就必然会让油价回到 70 美元。Ansem 担心，在没有明显快速解决办法的情况下，油价仍接近高点；继续扩大军事行动也不见得能解决问题。Mayne 认为，伊朗展现出的韧性超出预期，并批评 Trump 一边竞选时反对战争，一边又卷入战争。
Ansem 表示，期货曲线也开始转向上行；在他看来，这反映市场担心的是明年，而不只是眼前的供应冲击。他的传导逻辑是：油价上涨推高通胀压力，压缩美联储降息空间，进而减少对经济的刺激。他明确表示，自己希望有更深的地缘政治知识；相比预测冲突走向，他对市场约束的判断更有把握。
Mayne 早些时候提出过更乐观的反向情景：如果市场因为担心中期选举后战事重燃而下跌，而事态最终没有升级，反转行情可能带来有吸引力的多头机会。Ansem 表示认同。他更广泛的观察是，近期市场对恐惧的定价速度异常快，重要支撑位可能比过去的市场模式所显示的更快被触及。
21. 股指突破失败，要求更快改变看法
Ansem 强调，市场图景转变得有多快：两周前，股指图表看起来还“完美”。Mayne 在历史高位时的规则也很直接：突破并站稳就买入；若价格回落至突破位下方，就平仓，必要时反手做空。难点在心理层面——在顶部附近从极度看多转为看空——而不是事后认出突破失败。
Mayne 给出的 ES 价位是“76.20”（转录未说明其尺度），NQ 价位则是 28,820；若日线或周线连续 3 天收在这些位置下方，结构就会破坏。他称，过去 S&P 500 与 Nasdaq 的周线结构失守后，至少出现过 10%–20% 的回调。
他们强调，股市跌 10%–12% 可以只是普通回调，但对加密市场仍会造成痛苦冲击。Mayne 预计 Bitcoin 的跌幅通常约为股市的 2 倍。Ansem 对比 2017 年：当时每次 Bitcoin 创新高，追买都屡屡奏效；到了 2021 年，假突破让这种习惯付出代价。Mayne 现在常把新高视为可能出现的偏离，倾向于反向交易。
22. Bitcoin 现货折价与收复价位决定眼下交易
Mayne 表示，Bitcoin 现货价格比永续合约低约 150 美元，近期下跌主要由现货卖盘主导。Ansem 解释了两者区别：Coinbase 的 BTC/USD 市场涉及实际现金买卖，而 Binance 的 BTC/USDT 永续合约允许杠杆持仓。期货价格高于现货，意味着杠杆买盘更积极、现金持有人却在卖出；两人都认为，这种组合对短期走势不利。
首次跌破关键区间时，Ansem 的实际建议是在周一区间下方降低风险，等待价格收复；BTC 约为 79,400 美元，ETH 约为 2,300 美元。若价格在 4 小时收盘时重新站回区间，之后买回的成本可能只高几个百分点。“你在这里卖出、慌了，但你先慌了”，体现了他的偏好：宁可接受这点成本，也不要放任跌势失控。
更大的下行问题是价格在 75,000 美元附近如何反应。Mayne 不认为短暂跌破本身就必然看空；他对比 2023 年的走势，也容许价格先扫低、随后迅速反弹。若持续在其下方交易，才更令人担心。股市若快速下挫，BTC 可能跌向 60,000 美元，但仍高于两人提到的约 58,000 美元前低。
他们的看空观点也有失效条件。Ansem 表示，若价格强势回到跌破前的区间上方，他可能重新转为做多；Mayne 给出的改善位是 81,150 美元。两人都希望日线与 4 小时收盘确认跌破有效。Ansem 仍预计股市会拖累 Bitcoin，但明确承认，若价格强势收复，他眼下的判断就错了。
23. 山寨币离场与未来挂单，是两种不同决策
ETH 看起来比 Bitcoin 更弱，因为它已经跌破相应区间；Ansem 关注下方约 1,800–1,700 美元。SOL 更接近低位，但在更大的盘整区间里已经待了很久。他原本希望 SOL 守住约 100–120 美元；若深度回到此前的区间，便会削弱他期待转化为支撑的突破。
NEAR 体现了优质叙事与仓位恶化之间的区别。Ansem 回忆自己最早在约 1.70 美元买入，仍然看好它在 intents、AI 智能体和可编程隐私方面的主题。但经过约 40 天盘整后，他认为第一根有意义的破位 K 线就足以成为合理的降风险位置。在主流币偏空的情景下，他认为 NEAR 可能回到约 3–2.50 美元。
Mayne 会在抛售发生前标出周线需求区，并预先设置挂单或价格提醒。提醒应保留最初的买入理由：“几周前你就是想在这里买。”Ansem 认同，用现金买现货比用杠杆接刀更容易执行。今天看起来有吸引力的价位，等连续几根阴线把价格推到那里时，可能会让人望而却步。
PEPE 的韧性让 Ansem 确实拿不准。团队讨论了据称持有约 2% 供应量、价值约 4,000 万美元的黑客地址，以及 Hyperliquid 资金费率年化达到负 408%；尽管如此，这枚币仅跌约 10%，随后还出现反弹。他猜测可能是市场过度自满、剩下的卖家不多，或市场根本不在意。他不愿过早宣布胜利，理由是：“这才过了 1 个小时。”
24. 周一区间也体现了同一套 K 线逻辑
两人通过 Polymarket 的 Bitcoin 15 分钟涨跌市场测试自己的读图能力，并选择看涨。Mayne 的依据包括：价格扫过前一根 15 分钟 K 线的低点，以及出现一根小型 5 分钟十字星，可能预示反转。最终 K 线勉强收绿。他们享受了结果，但讨论的交易逻辑只针对这一段短周期行情，并不代表整体看空仓位发生改变。
Ansem 解释，短线反弹可以与后续看空走势并存。15 分钟内出现 2%–3% 的波动后，杠杆交易者会止盈，买家承接强制卖盘，订单簿也需要时间形成新的价格。盘整让交易者有机会在新形成区间的顶部再次离场或做空，无须推翻日线级别的看空判断。
Ansem 说，每根 K 线都可能留在前一根的区间内、向上突破或向下跌破。带下影线的阳线必然曾经跌破开盘价，随后才收复；低周期图表可以看清这一过程。Mayne 将其联系到 ICT 的“3 段式运行”，以及开—高—低—收或开—低—高—收这两种路径。预期中较大周期 K 线提供路线图，再据此在较小周期寻找入场点。
周一区间将这套方法应用到一周走势：若周二或周三探底后收复，可能支撑行情向周一高点反弹。Mayne 将同样的逻辑延伸到年度开盘价：若年初先跌破前一年的低点，再收复年度开盘价，可能标记出重要的年度低点，并帮助确定后续交易方向。
25. 结合两个周期与时间限制，把图表判断转化为交易
Mayne 的固定规则是，每笔交易都看两个周期。高周期用来识别支撑、阻力、需求区或预期发生反应的位置；低周期则提供可识别的形态，用于确定入场和止损。他认为，交易者常常因为要求一张图同时给出价位、方向背景、入场信号和风险定义，反而把自己绕晕。
Ansem 将入场简化为少数几种选择：在支撑位买入，或买入突破；做空时则反向操作。止损应设在相关价位或前一区间之外。最强的形态会把重要的高周期价位——例如月线支撑——与低周期确认结合起来。这也解释了为什么同一个小周期形态，在某个位置有意义，换个位置就可能没有用。
时间本身也能提供信息。Ansem 希望低周期入场后，预期中的反应能较快出现；若迟迟没有动静，他会考虑退出。Mayne 将这一原则用在他们当前的空头仓位上：“如果这东西要被砸，就希望现在就砸下去。”价格在入场位附近停留得越久，他就越不喜欢这笔交易，即使常规价格止损还没有触发。
完整逐字稿
Welcome back to Market Bubble, a show about investing in yourself, where we feel an overwhelming majority of young men today are in a losing position. How are we positioned? Find out today and every Thursday at 1:00 PM PST live on twitch.tv/fazebanks, as well as kick/ansom. And we're both—
Kick.com/ansom.
—and we're both live on Twitter as well.
What's up?
We're live all over the fucking place. Chat, we're gonna kick things off with some airdrops to soften the blow, because we don't have good news for you.
Bro, it's not good. It's not.
We have everything but good news. How much money do we have to give away from Phantom? Let's just fucking bang it all out, because I didn't do anything for the pre-show.
$5,000.
Let's butter these biscuits up before we break the bad news to them.
Fuck, bro.
How much do we have?
Five thousand, man.
$5,000? Okay, chat.
I like Banks Glazer. Banks Glazer is funny. He said he's—
Yeah, give it to him.
He said he's eating ice cubes for dinner. Bro, it's really tricky right now.
Yep, Banks Glazer, you're the first one.
Bro, you said it, not me.
He knows it's bad when I start putting out TA videos, bro. This is very serious. This is not a good thing.
Yeah, but when CT gets racist and starts dropping the N-bomb, isn't that bullish, though?
I'm getting mixed signals, brother. I don't know what the fuck to do.
I'm telling you, when CT gets really, really racist towards me and I'm posting a directional idea, it's usually because they're in the opposite position of that idea, which is not good for people who are—
Oh, okay. Got it.
Yeah.
Got it. Got it.
Yeah. It's unfortunate.
That tracks, too, with earlier this year when you were bullish.
Bro, when I was bullish at the bottom, people were like, “You're fucking an idiot. What are you talking about? It's going to zero.” And now I'm bearish, and people are like, “Yeah, you're an idiot again.”
It's true. So, what did you say to me right when we started up? Right when we got in the green room, you said, “Everything's nuking. Amazon's down. Fucking Nvidia's down.”
1. The Market Turns Bearish
Yeah, it's not looking great. I said last week that I kind of switched from bullish to bearish for a few reasons. There was some technical stuff for crypto, but also some uncertainty around the AI CapEx stuff going on with a lot of the megatech companies.
This is a huge earnings week. Last week was also a huge earnings week. People are essentially concerned that the estimates they have for these large companies' revenues are not meeting their expectations, and they're investing a fuck ton into AI. If that AI flow-through isn't growing their business as fast as investors are expecting, then obviously investors are reacting negatively.
We saw it with Meta last week, and we just saw it with Amazon today, which is down about 10% after hours. Intel's down 20% after hours. Google was down 10% after hours yesterday, I want to say. I'm literally getting TradingView alerts nonstop right now because shit is literally nuking.
What I was essentially saying is, if the macro and equities really haven't had a deep pullback at all since the end of 2022 and 2023, and they've dominated the risk returns this cycle, the momentum on the individual AI names has slowed down. If you pair that with some of the largest companies in the index starting to do poorly in earnings, you can see why we might see a pullback across the board. If people are de-risking in equities, that's obviously not good for the riskiest asset class, which is cryptocurrency.
I do think you can make an argument for Bitcoin. I personally am not going to make that argument. I could see why you'd try to, as an asset that's kind of uncorrelated to all the AI stuff and something you want to hold when inflation is high. But Bitcoin has always served that purpose. People were buying Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation when it was at much lower prices, and people are still going to be de-risking when they think assets are selling off across the board.
Stable Ronaldo, Ronaldo on Kick, Banks Stole My Booty—you're getting $1,000. That's the kind of timing I'm on today. That's how ridiculous today is.
Oh.
Regardless of what Z's talking about—
Ugly, bro.
—obviously Z's looking at shit and not liking what he's seeing. Yeah, fully flipped bearish these last couple of weeks. You can see his thought process and how he's come to this conclusion live on his Twitter throughout the week. I encourage you guys to follow that.
People get mad when you change your opinion, which makes no sense, because you should always be open to changing your mind and your opinion about markets. That's how the best traders operate.
It's a tough spot. You have to be able to change your opinion to make money. If you think about it, when somebody is bullish, you want to be as bullish as possible when stuff is at all-time highs and trending into all-time highs, and then you have to flip bearish very quickly, close to the top, if you want to be as accurate as possible. I flipped pretty late, honestly, I think.
You're just in the business of protecting dollars and being correct.
Yeah, and that's what I said on the show. A lot of the positions I think we gave people on the show are up a lot from when we first mentioned them, and I don't think I've ever said, “Bro, you should be selling some of this stuff.” That's why I felt like it made sense to say that last week. I'm just trying to protect profits.
A hundred percent. I'm gonna grab this—
Hey, can you pull up Twitter real quick?
Pull up Twitter?
Yeah, I'll pull it up. Binance got hacked for $600 million-plus. Binance—hundreds of millions of dollars. You're lying, bro. No, right now. Right now. Check it yourself.
Wait, Binance just got hacked?
Pull up Twitter. He said, “Put Twitter on the main screen.”
You know what's sick, by the way? I had a dream last night, and this is 100% real. I had a fucking dream last night that Bitcoin wicked to zero, and AGI—I swear to God on my life—quantum hacked Bitcoin. I had that fucking dream.
Stop, bro. Zero, my nigga?
Yeah, it went to zero and everybody lost everything.
We gotta pull up Twitter.
On God, I had this dream last night. On God. On everything that I love, it was a fucking nightmare. I was running around like a chicken with its head cut off.
Bro, it says, “Binance hot wallet looks to be getting drained for $2.5 billion.” Bro, what?
There's no way.
Check the TG.
Wait, hold on. Is this it? There's no way.
Bro, what the fuck?
No, it's real. It's real.
This is real? I'm looking at Spreaker, trying to figure out if it's real or not.
$1.7 billion.
Bro.
Dude, fuck. That's really not good.
Bro, what?
Yeah, things are dumping bad. It's bad. It's really bad.
Oh my God. Bro, what the fuck? Kat, didn't I literally tell you?
What?
Before I walked up here, I literally told you shit was not gonna be good today, bro. I told you shit was not gonna be good today, bro. We're fucking nuking.
I was like, “This is fine,” and then—
Oh my God, bro.
—then you said—
Literally five minutes ago, word for word, I said, “Bro, today is not gonna be good. It's not looking good.” People are like, “Crypto's holding on. Equities are moving.” Bro, this shit is fucking nasty. What the fuck? Oh my God, fuck.
Yeah, it's brutal.
The thing is, this is not a good spot for us to be selling off. What I said on stream, in the video the other day, is this move is extremely thin. There's not a lot of support right here. That's why I said I think ETH is gonna go to $1,800.
Like, this is… Bro, there’s no support down here. This is breaking the most important level on the chart for Bitcoin and ETH. Bitcoin at least has $75K, but ETH is just… Bro.
Yikes, man.
Oh my God, what the fuck?
That’s bad.
What the fuck?
In that case—hey—
This is brutal.
Let’s see, what are you doing in 17 minutes?
In 17 minutes, I have to hop on the fucking Coinbase earnings call.
I think I fucking half-ported Hyperliquid—
Oh.
—at $25.
Yeah, you should sell it.
I know. I should.
Fuck, this is not a good time to be live, bro. I need to be clicking buttons right now.
Yeah, it’s fucked up.
Oh my God, bro. Brutal. Absolutely brutal.
Bro, a $2.5 billion hack?
Is that confirmed? Like, genuinely?
They got the ETH.
What the fuck?
Oh my God.
Yikes, man.
Yeah, Tree News flagged it: “Withdrawing billions in over 60 tokens to an address funded by Tornado Cash 16 minutes ago. Details are still unclear.” This is not good, bro. This is bad. This is a “de-risk some positions now” kind of bad.
Yeah, unfortunately, I can’t do that.
I know. I’m speaking to—
To the audience.
—to the audience, bro.
Um—
It’s very rare that you catch… Okay, I’m going to see if I can explain. You catch something—
Switch it back then. Switch it back.
How do I go to my laptop? Oh, here.
Petty Lane getting drilled fast.
Drilled. Drilled. I literally said earlier, in the video I put out this morning, that when you break beneath Monday’s range, this is a good spot to de-risk. You can just wait for this range to get reclaimed. If you sell as this is breaking, you can wait for it to get back above this level, which is around $79.4K for BTC and $2,300 for ETH. You don’t miss much. Okay, you miss a few percent. But if you don’t de-risk into this candle and it sells off another 10% from here, and you’re seeing this happen in real time, it’s kind of like, “Why?”
Yeah.
That’s how I would trade it, to be honest. This is the 15-minute close. If this is going to be bullish and sweep this, you’re going to see it get back above here relatively quickly. Then, on the four-hour, if it closes back in this range, you can be like, “Okay, cool. You sold here, you panicked, but you panicked first.” When you have confirmation that it’s not an issue, you buy back. I think this is going to stay beneath this low. I think it’s going to trend lower. It’s basically the same chart across the board. We haven’t really seen the liquidations yet. This is just the first round of panic. Not to scare people, but a lot of people—
I really should’ve just woken up and sold everything. I really had that dream.
Yeah.
It was brutal. It felt so real.
Yeah, no, I feel you.
I woke up and I was like, “Oh, thank God.” The first thing I did was check the price of Bitcoin.
Damn, I wish it had been delayed. You had the intuition, though.
I know. Fuck. Should’ve been me.
Yeah, I woke up at 3:00 a.m. this morning and was like, “Bro, I am so bearish. I need to record a video and post it on Twitter.” And that’s what I did.
All the profits we made on HYPE are just fully wiped out. See ya.
You’re still up a lot from the ICE integration thing, though.
Yeah. Big time. Thank fucking God.
Oh.
I have a lot of money in Bitcoin as well, and my average entry in this last batch is around $70K.
Yeah, that’s why during this whole trend, people were like, “Oh, Bitcoin’s holding $80K, it’s fine.” People are basically complacent because they bought way down here. I think now is when you’re starting to see these people—
Someone said, “Banks, give the airdrop to yourself.” That’s hilarious.
That’s pretty funny.
Slam, Slam, I got you.
That’s pretty funny.
That’s deserving. Slam6389, $1,000. We gave away $3K, so we owe you guys $2K more.
This is brutal.
You’ve got to go in 12 minutes, right?
I’ve got to go ask questions, bro. What the heck?
Well, we’re going to be watching, so ask the right questions. Go nuts. Go nuts.
I’ve got some good questions, at least. I do have some good questions. Chat, how are we feeling? How are we feeling, chat?
What the fuck?
21 Ansem. Bro, I don’t look like 21 Savage, bro. I don’t look like 21 Savage. And I need y’all to stop saying that.
Why do they keep saying that?
I don’t look like 21 Savage. Y’all are racist, bro. You are. You know? You are, bro. It’s fucked up. It is. It’s fucked up.
Who do you mostly get? Is that what you get, 21 Savage?
Bro, you know who I’ve gotten before?
I get—
I’ve gotten fucking DeMar DeRozan. I think that’s honestly worse than 21 Savage.
DeMar DeRozan. I need to… Nah.
That’s what I said. I said, “Bro, nigga ugly, dog. What the hell?” Fucked up. Okay.
I get MGK and Post Malone.
That’s funny.
The tattoos and just the—
Ah.
Hey, is the Binance hack bullish for Zcash?
Is the Binance hack bullish for Zcash?
What are they going to buy? What are they going to buy?
Maybe. I think people are just going to panic, to be honest, but… Oh.
It’s fucking brutal, man.
How does Binance get hacked? Binance? Binance, bro? Binance, bro?
Biggest hack in crypto history.
We’ve got $2K more to give away. Chat, I just want to quickly gauge: regardless of what he’s saying right now, I’m sure we’re going to see overwhelmingly bullish or bearish responses. Are you bearish right now or bullish? We’ll give the last $2,000 to a bear and a bull, respectively. Maybe add a little context, too, to stand out. But I want to see where you guys are at right now. Optimistic.
2. Hyperliquid Lands TradFi Support
Damn. I mean, I’m optimistic in the long term, too. I think the Hyperliquid news today is honestly sick as fuck. We haven’t talked about that. The partnership between Hyperliquid and the Intercontinental Exchange—ICE—is huge. The parent company of the New York Stock Exchange announced an official partnership with Trade.xyz, the company that enables all the equity perps and spot trading of assets on Hyperliquid. I think they do about 50% of Hyperliquid’s volume right now. They’ve been fucking crushing it.
That’s huge. I think it gives credence to the fact that blockchain systems are much better for finance and trading all these assets, and that a lot of people are actually going to use Hyperliquid under the hood to do all these things. I think perpetual futures are probably crypto’s greatest invention, to be honest. We’re going to start seeing that instrument used a lot more throughout TradFi. That’s definitely a huge win for crypto in general, and it’s going to continue to proliferate across finance.
It’s also going to be huge for stablecoins. I think what people forget is that if Hyperliquid, as a venue, is going to get billions or trillions of assets on its platform, that’s also huge for the amount of stablecoins that are going to be on its platform. That’s great for the U.S. dollar, which is why I think all these huge agencies and the U.S. government are going to continue to support them and these partnerships.
I think a great opportunity over the next few years is going to be the front ends that enable equity perps on Hyperliquid. As far as I know, Hyperliquid is heavily focused on the back end and less on the mobile and front-end side of things. I think there’s going to be a lot of gamification around the apps that are first movers there. Another interesting opportunity that’s been under the radar is Elysium, so Kinetic. Kinetics, which is the L2 building on top of Hyperliquid. I think it launches next week, November 9. Their token, KNTQ, is going to get a lot of interest in that ecosystem. HyperEVM is extremely slow, and there’s never really been a lot of activity there, which is why Kinetiq is building an L2 on top of Hyperliquid. That’s a very interesting spot.
It’s pretty split down the middle in the chat, bullish and bearish. I don’t know what that means, but—
Well—
Somebody said, “Banks, go piss.”
That’s funny.
Yeah, it’s honestly coming up on that, maybe in the next 5 or 10 minutes. This fool’s got my routine and my schedule on lock.
Yeah, that’s pretty funny. Oh, HYPE is ripping.
Is it?
Yeah, HYPE’s ripping. Good bounce on HYPE. I mean, bro, the other part of the ICE announcement: Stanley Druckenmiller invested in Trade.xyz, which is fucking crazy. He’s one of the best investors of all time. He had 30% year-over-year returns for 30 years straight, with no losing years. He’s a fucking beast, and he invested in Trade.xyz. His first tweet ever was about being bullish on Hyperliquid and investing in Trade.xyz.
I think that’s also unlocking a lot of TradFi capital that’s going to want exposure to crypto. I’m like, “Why would I not buy HYPE if fucking Stanley Druckenmiller is buying HYPE?” He bought PER and invested in Trade.xyz. He double-dipped. I think that’s going to be great for flows, to be honest. Oh, I think I’ve got to hop to this fucking earnings thing.
Yeah, three minutes. In six minutes, or now? Chat, we’re gonna watch it. We’re gonna chit-chat through it.
Wow, what a day.
Oh, fuck, dude. We didn’t even really crack any of the shit we wanted to talk about. Obviously, this takes precedence. It’s happening live in real time. Can we get some updates on this Binance hack? Where was the hack?
Yeah, what—
Where was the hack? Where is this $2.5 billion coming from? What is this—
It said it was their hot wallet, so Binance’s hot wallet. Somebody drained it and sent it through Tornado Cash, I think.
It’s funded by—
Or funded by—
Are we sure it got drained and they’re not just moving money around?
It says, “Binance sees unexplained outflows to freshly created addresses funded by Tornado Cash.” Yeah, what if it’s some AI shit?
Dude.
Damn, bro, we literally just said the uncertainty around AI is getting good enough to hack shit now. This is the very first time AI is getting good enough to hack all this shit. We’re in a period that’s not gonna happen again. The period where AI is getting good enough to break a lot of these systems, and we have to respond in real time to them getting broken, is only gonna happen once.
Yeah, facts.
So it’s like the most—
Pre-AI and then post-AI.
We’re at the most uncertainty right now. What people have been saying is that crypto is hardened against it, which I think Zcash definitely is. Our system should be hardened against some of it, but there’s just so much that can fucking happen, bro. I don’t know. Oh, XMR is pumping. Monero’s pumping.
I think now is definitely a good spot to really—
Polymarket got hacked today too.
Yeah, what the fuck? It’s really bad. “Wait till a bank gets hacked,” somebody said.
Fuck, bro.
Chat, I’ll give away the last $2K when Z dips off to this Coinbase thing as he preps, and then we’ll all watch it together.
Okay.
Let me go take a piss before you dip, so chat isn’t left alone.
Damn, nasty candles, dude. What the fuck? Bro, did I not literally say—
On the top, on the dot, dude.
On the dot.
On the dot.
Oh my God, bro. I’ve been up since 3:00 AM. I said, “Bro, today is not gonna be good.”
You look like it.
I’ve been up since 3:00 AM, bro. I woke up at 3:00 AM today. I said, “Bro, today is not gonna be good.”
I need you to share your sleep data with me.
Bro, when I’m hella active trading the market, it’ll just wake me up and I’ll be up. Just up.
Well, do you have Eight Sleep?
No.
Well, let’s get that.
I need an Eight Sleep.
All right.
Yeah, add it to the production cost.
Yeah.
Add it to the production cost. He needs sleep so he’s awake and can talk on stream. I tried to get my money on Paper Trade, but that shit’s still waiting. Yeah, I have some positions open on Paper Trade right now too, though. You probably can’t even close them because of the delay. “Ansem, you did this to us.” No, I didn’t, bro. You think I hacked Binance, dog?
Yo.
You think I nuked Amazon and Intel? You think I have that much power, bro? You’re fucking crazy. I just sensed that something was wrong. I don’t know what it was, but I just sensed something was wrong. I don’t even know how to explain it. Niggas be like, “Why’d you flip from bullish to bearish?” I don’t fucking know, bro, to be honest. It’s a gut feeling. These charts are disgusting right now. Oh my God. That’s fucking gross, bro. I literally said this shit was gonna happen today.
On the—you said it was gonna happen now.
Oh, fuck, bro. Stable Ronaldo, they’re gonna send it to you after the show. All right, bro, I gotta hop on this fucking Coinbase shit.
Bet.
Wish me luck.
Of course. Production, do we just switch to this, I guess? Is this what we’re doing? Then I can do my laptop type shit? Yeah, okay, this is what we’ll do. Fuck, chat. Yeah, it’s bad. I’m not gonna lie, my instincts are telling me to sell it all. If I was home right now, I’d probably be selling everything off, or at least de-risking a pretty significant amount. I pulled FOMO out and just fucking sold a bunch of Zcash. Oh, this is so brutal. Fuck. Yikes, man. Yikes.
How’s your dog, Penny? She’s fantastic. Let’s give away these other two. Production, can you give me some comms on when we’ll be watching this Coinbase thing? I think we should watch the whole thing, whatever he’s experiencing and watching, so we can do the whole recap. He’s going last, I guess, right? From what I heard, we’re gonna lose Z for 30 minutes. He’s still live, obviously. Oh, okay. Cool, cool, cool.
So let’s do these airdrops. We have two more racks to give you guys. I know I said I’d give $1,000 to a bear and $1,000 to a bull, so make your case. Why are we bullish? Why are we bearish? You’re gonna get one each. Is that Crack Baby? Did I just see Crack Baby in the chat? Crack Baby, you want this $1,000 airdrop, brother? I don’t wanna see you on Patreon. You’re too funny. You’re too talented, bro. You’re a funny guy. Was that actually him? My favorite streamer.
Crack Baby, I know you secretly fuck with me too. That’s the best part. It’s forbidden love, though. Can I be a bear? I mean, make your case, bro. It wouldn’t surprise me if Crack Baby was low-key drilling charts and trading crypto, trading markets. That wouldn’t blow my mind. He’s always at his desk. Mods, is that actually him? I can’t click on it right now. You know what, man? Fuck it. Crack Baby, $1,000 to you. Fuck it. That’s the bear. Even if it’s a fake Crack Baby, you know ball. You know we’re fans of Crack Baby on this stream. Whoever the fuck that is on Twitch, give him $1,000. Get their Solana address.
Bulls, make your case. Make your case. Bullish because it’s all up from here? Let’s hope you’re right, brother. They’re live? Okay. We’re gonna switch over in a second, but I gotta give this last $1,000 to Chatski.
Bullish because Druckenmiller. You know what? Bullish HYPE because Druckenmiller. Give that kid the $1,000. I like that. I don’t know who said that, but yeah, that’s a good reason to be bullish, to be honest. Motherfucker’s the greatest investor of all time talking about Hyperliquid. It’s his only fucking tweet, and he made his Twitter 4 years ago. Are we supposed to be bearish Hyperliquid after a tweet like that?
Thanks, Legs Kate. It’s the only on-chain position that I have outside of majors, obviously, outside of Zcash and POMP. It’s the only fucking meme coin I own. I’m down a lot on it, but you can’t fade a delusional community. You just can’t. That’s my whole thought process on it. Again, I’m down like 80 bands on it, so we’ll see where it goes. But to be fair, it’s been a nice flight to safety for people who are in the trenches and on-chain. Everything else has been obliterated, banished to the shadow realm.
Bro, it’s really gonna make my whole day if that was actually Crack Baby in my chat. Crack Baby, take that rack and just spend it on Chrome. That’s all I ask. Just spend it on Chrome. Can we agree on that? Go buy a pair of socks or a pair of sunglasses. Can you get a pair of Chrome shades for $1,000? Yeah, you can. Go buy a pair of sunglasses, brother, or a pair of socks on me, for the culture.
So yeah, we gave chat $5K or whatever. We’re switching—whatever. What do I do? “Deleted the tweet. Hack is probably real. GG.” Binance deleted the tweet. Hack is probably real. GG. That’s a live update.
Go to what? What’d you say? Telegram? Got it. We’re here. Yep. Yep. All right, chat.
It’s really a good segue. Terrific—
Is he live on it?
Sequential growth in prediction market—
Or when is he jumping on this?
—revenue. One of the questions we get a lot is about trends in consumer transaction revenue and take rate.
Thanks. Are you long Rasmer? I’m extremely long Rasmer.
Can you help us parse a little bit how much—
If Rasmer was a chart, by the way, he’s almost guaranteed to 10x from where he’s at in the next year or 2. Almost guaranteed. I’d bet my fucking life on that. Look at the trajectory he’s been on. He understands content; he understands attention. I’m extremely bullish Rasmer. Extremely bullish.
Overall spot crypto trading was actually down. We saw overall crypto spot trading volume down 10% quarter over quarter. The growth in prediction markets offset the decline in overall spot trading, and we delivered flat revenue quarter over quarter. The mix shift is there. And when we look at the mix of overall revenue—
What the fuck are they talking about? Listen, there’s blood in the streets. I’m losing money. Brian, fucking do something.
Predictions plus derivatives, so those 2 combined—
The fuck?
—were about 25% of our total transaction revenue. And if I look at our total revenue, subscription services was roughly 49% of total net revenues. So we are seeing the investments that we’ve made over the past few years to really diversify our revenue bear benefit, as—
Brian, put a fucking cape on.
—I love that Brian says there’s always a market somewhere. And so people are shifting their trading behavior to us as the most transparent, widest, and deepest markets they want to trade in. What we saw right now and in this quarter—
We all know you have laser fucking, laser-eye vision—
—a lot of that was around predictions. But I also want to share with you, this isn’t cannibalizing our spot trading.
—and superhuman strength. Fucking save us now.
What we’ve seen is this is all incremental, and when we look at our trading profile, people are still continuing to trade spot, just maybe at a lesser level than they did in past quarters, and they’re putting incremental dollars to trade in prediction markets and derivatives markets.
Or I’m gonna tell you to kill yourself in GTA on Twitter now. Somebody said John Cena. That’s good.
So really, these are additive to our overall trading volume.
100. One, who is it? By the way, can we just talk about how we got blindsided by this big Binance hack and the Hyperliquid shit? There’s a lot happening this morning. There’s a lot happening today. But can we just talk about how CT cannot help itself? It has to be somebody’s fault. It’s my fault or it’s Ansem’s fault. Markets could be down. Binance got hacked for $2.5 billion, and you can bet your life there’s gonna be a thread about how it’s Frank DeGods’ fault, or how it’s Ansem’s fault, or how it’s Brian Armstrong’s fault.
It’s gotta be somebody’s fault. It’s Pump.fun’s fault. I nuked the fucking market. Fuck it, I hacked Binance. I’m running away with $2.5 billion. I’m gonna buy Core, and we’re all gonna be one big happy family. And honestly, I’m kicking everybody except Crack Baby. That’s right. Crack Baby’s in. You guys are out.
Honestly, Crack Baby, are you still here? Just fucking call me at this point. I think we start FaZe, we run it back for the 10th time right here, right now. Who’s the lineup? Is Crack Baby still here? Let’s just relaunch this shit with Crack Baby, Cuffem, and Neon. Honestly, that’s fucking cinema.
Who else, Crack Baby? Let’s just throw D-Lu in there too. That’s cinema. You and D-Lu on bunk beds, bro. That’s a fucking movie. Come on. J-Shock. Oh, that’s good. That’s good. I might have to plan some shit for April. April 1st. See, Crack Baby, I know ball. I be watching the stream. I know.
B-Lou. No, Zias and B. Lou, it’s not toxic enough. Yeah, FaZe Rain. Just let him do it. Fuck it. Bro, this earnings call—where the fuck is he at? I’m just waiting for him to get on so we can watch this shit, because I don’t know what the fuck. I don’t know what—another 11 minutes? Oh, and then he’s gonna jump off for 10 minutes. That’s what’s happening? I got it.
I agree with you, chat. Listen, this is why I have absolutely no—I’m being genuine right now. I’m not playing a game. I’m not being funny. I actually genuinely think Crack Baby’s hilarious, and I fully respect how loyal he is to Silky. These kids grew up together. This fool would never, for any amount of views or money, turn on this kid. He blindly agrees with everything that he says, as you fucking should. That’s your boy, your day one off stream before all this shit.
Whatever. I’m not gonna knock the kid or hold it against him because me and this fool have an issue over some shit that didn’t work out. We’re not—You know what I mean? Yeah, you can’t. And I agree with that fully. I wish I had more people like that in my life, personally, and that’s really where all the pain comes from. That’s where all this back-and-forth, all this shit, comes from.
I’m an emotional kid, you know. That’s gonna piss you guys off too. “Kid? Kid, bro, you’re pushing 40.” And he’s just funny. He doesn’t take shit too seriously. It’s like Cuffem, but a little bit more for me, as opposed to—I feel like Cuffem’s a little bit more for kids. And I mean that respectfully. Cuffem’s crushing it, and he’s funny as fuck. I’ve known Cuffem since he was a baby as well.
Yeah, the fact that he’s 32 doesn’t surprise me. It totally tracks, totally makes sense. This is why. He’s not taking shit too seriously. AllPurple47, I don’t know why the fuck you got banned for asking that, but yeah. You know what, mods? Unban everybody. Whoever’s been banned up to this point, just unban them. A lot of these fools popped into the first couple streams anyways, and I know shit was hectic. It was a fucking war zone in here for the first few streams, but I think it’s—
He said, “Oh, here we go.” Is that crazy? Why, do they get notified and shit? It’d be kinda funny. Bloodbath incoming. Fuck it, there’s already blood in the streets. I’m down a smooth—I’m down like a million dollars today. I must be. I’m definitely down seven figures. No Hype’s keeping us afloat. What the fuck? I mean, I’m down $150,000 just between CATE and Zcash, and then I have a pretty fat Solana position that’s down 10%. PUMP’s also probably down. It adds up. It adds up.
Who hacked BNB? AI, probably. AI. Fuck. I freed the prisoners. AllPurple, you should be unbanned now, so sorry about that. The Camilla shit happened a long time ago, too. That was insane. We have 7 minutes to kill. Oh my God. How’d Allen Iverson do that? That’s funny.
Damn, we should’ve planned for a Crack Baby segment. Me and Crack Baby on a call during this 20-minute buffer? Movie. Crack Baby, get my number from Silky and call me. Oh my God. Do I like Blade? I’m fucking 40 years old, brother. I know nothing about Blade. I like that you guys like him. Drain Gang. Thoughts on the new Post Malone album? Haven’t listened to it.
“You’re actually 40?” Imagine there was a 40-year-old guy walking around with a 6'5" frame, fucking gorgeous blue eyes, a hammer, sorta rich, looking like me. If this is what I look like at 40 years old, it’s like—No, I’m 35. I think I’m crushing it, though, at 35. You guys will see.
The average median age of people in here is like 25, 26. You guys know what it is. People graduate high school, and an overwhelming majority of people fall off a fucking cliff. That can’t be Crack Baby. It just can’t be. It can’t be. I refuse to believe. Fuck, man. Dude, I should be home selling everything right now. I’m talking to Crack Baby in a Twitch chat. I really have lost the fucking plot. Maybe you guys are right.
You literally click—I can’t click his fucking profile. I’m on a set. I’m on a whole-ass set. I have mods, I have production here. I can’t click on his fucking profile. I mean, I guess on my laptop I could go do it, maybe. No, you guys don’t need to worry about it. I’m just fucking with chat.
Wow.
Yeah, it’s fine. Production is confirming that is indeed Crack Baby. Let’s do the pre-show next week together, the 30 minutes, just me and you, one-on-one. CZ tweet. Let’s go see. Am I getting baited? Am I getting baited? Oh, CZ did in fact tweet a minute ago. Good shit, chat. Good shout.
“User funds are safe. It does look like a hack on Binance. Appreciate the quick freeze from Tether and Circle. I don’t manage Binance.com anymore, but as a shareholder, I expect all user funds will be fully recovered.” Whoa. So Tether and Circle froze it. W Cabal. That’s crazy. They just bailed him out of this? Who the fuck hacked it? Who hacked it? ZachXBT, where the fuck are you? Jesus Christ. You guys are more worried about Kimchi and if he hit $40 million than a $2.5 billion Binance hack.
What the fuck is going on? Where the fuck are you guys? What’s this fuck Brian Armstrong saying?
Brian, thanks for taking these questions. Excited to do this. Maybe I’ll start with a question on security and custody in general. There’s growing concern out there that AI could discover new algorithms that break cryptography and ECDSA in general.
Binance.
How does that change the security and custody setup? And are you accelerating the post-quantum roadmap? Just a question in terms of custody and security in general: how are you guys thinking about that?
Bro, you could’ve asked that in—
Yeah, sure.
—fucking 3 words.
Okay, so I think there are really—
AI hack scary? Question mark?
—2 separate things we look at. One is the AI trends we’re seeing, with new math proofs and security developments. Then there’s the quantum question. These are actually pretty different. When it comes to ECDSA and elliptic curve cryptography—
Crack Baby, this stream is not for you, brother.
—I’m actually not so worried about AI—
But I’ll teach you. That’d be funny.
—creating a risk there.
That’d be a funny little segment series.
There’s been something like a 40-year track record of people attempting new algorithms to make this easier to break, and they’ve basically made zero progress. It requires brute-forcing a 2^256 number, so it’s not one of these problems that I think AI is going to be able to chip away at.
Quantum is a different story. It requires a new type of computer to be built, and for it to work at scale—not just a theoretical one with a couple of qubits. I think that’s more a matter of when, not if. Eventually, a big enough quantum computer will be made that starts to make this stuff a real issue. So the quantum one is the more serious one to look at here.
To get ready for this, we’re doing a handful of things. One is that we’ve begun the work to upgrade our custody to be post-quantum. Of course, we also need the blockchains themselves to be upgraded and to be quantum-resistant. I know lots of different blockchains are working on this, and some of them have published their roadmaps.
We’ve been participating as best we can on the Bitcoin side. There’s an advisory council for Bitcoin around post-quantum that had a really good meeting we attended a few months ago at Stanford, with Dan Boneh leading it along with a number of other folks—
Bro, why the fuck do they do this?
—and that was a really great conversation that got a lot of people together in the room. I know the community has put out some of these Bitcoin Improvement Proposals, like BIP-360, and there are others. So—
Bro.
—my hope is that the Bitcoin community will find a path over the coming couple of quarters to start to coalesce around some of these proposals. That one isn’t imminent, but I do think it’s always good to be proactive and start to get ahead of these things.
I just wanted to add on and share that last time, too, we acquired a team of some of the foremost cryptography experts. This is a space, both on the quantum and AI side, that we’re monitoring very carefully internally and being really vigilant in investing resources to harden both our own ecosystem and work in partnership with the community, as Brian shared.
Perfect. Thanks.
You could—you should open with that, Brian.
Shifting to the tokenized stocks on Base: I know it’s still very early, obviously. Is the Base sequencer fee the main revenue driver going forward, or are you looking at other monetization plans? And to add to that, we’re seeing a lot of different equities tokenized by several exchanges. How do you see that fragmentation going forward, and how do you think about that?
Bro, I c—
Great question.
—I can’t do it. Chat, keep an eye on that shit and let me know when Ansem gets on. Let’s just fuck around until then. Let’s just keep talking to Crack Baby in chat, because that is fucking… Jesus Christ. It’s like Brian’s saying, “How’s the weather outside?” “Well, you see, the nimbus cloud is starting to form, and on Thursday it’s expected to…” It’s like, “Brother, is it hot? Is it cold? Is AI gonna steal all my fucking money, and did it just steal $2.5 billion from Binance?” Oh, man. I’m gonna fucking throw up. I’m gonna fucking throw up. Oh my God. Down so much money today. This is fucking brutal.
As equities, and that is what we’re doing. We are—
What’s this? Binance hack: the drain TX submitted valid nonce. Likely the hacker collected all 50 over some period of time. Correct nonces would be at the time of execution and submitted them all, except the valid one. The invalid ones get discarded. What the fuck does this mean? Can somebody who isn’t fucking retarded explain this to me? ’Cause I guess I’m just retarded.
I’m sick. I’m sick to my stomach that I’m here on fucking Twitch clip-farming Jason, JasonTheWeen, while I’m just getting fucking murdered for hundreds of thousands of dollars, and I can’t click sell ’cause I’m on fucking Twitch talking to fucking Crack Baby. It’s crazy. It’s like 500K or dinner with Crack Baby. Chat, 500K or dinner with Crack Baby? That’s good.
Produce Ansem, who’s the host of Market Bubble, to ask us some of your questions.
You didn’t do anything, brother. You’re perfect.
Here we go, chat.
Hey, how you guys doing?
W, Ansem.
What’s happening, y’all?
Yeah, thanks for being here.
Yeah, it’s cool. I know you guys are trying to verticalize a lot of the stack as a financial application, from spot trading and prediction markets to stablecoin interest and institutional trading. But there are also a lot of other companies trying to do the same thing. How do you guys differentiate those plans from your competitors?
Yeah, it’s a great question. I do think you’re right. There are more and more people coming together around this everything-exchange idea. I think it depends which competitor you’re talking about, right? There are going to be some folks who aren’t going to lean into this kind of frontier technology, whether it’s crypto, AI, perps, or prediction markets. Some of the more traditional players probably aren’t going to have all of these on one platform with a good, let’s say, agentic trading interface.
If you look at some of the more tech-forward ones, it depends. On the surface, they might look similar, but Coinbase is trying to do something a little different from the others. We’re not trying to just bring a bunch of people to Wall Street or something. We’re trying to make a new decentralized financial system that doesn’t need Wall Street and can reach the billions of people the old system didn’t really serve.
There are going to be strengths and weaknesses of each of the players, including us. I think some of the areas where we’re going to be a little stronger are on the crypto infrastructure side, because that’s more in line with our mission. Things like Base have a really large developer and onchain ecosystem around them. We co-founded USDC, and we created the x402 protocol for agentic commerce—
Coinbase co-founded USDC?
—we have really good decentralized exchange integrations.
I didn’t know that. That’s crazy.
I’d say one other advantage Coinbase has is that we serve not just consumers, but institutions, too. We have a developer infrastructure product that we sell. It’s a little easier to run a business that has just one customer, but it’s a lot more powerful if you can build the right platform to serve multiple customer types. We’ve been investing in that platform for a number of years, and I think it’s really starting to give us leverage and help us amortize what we build. We build something once in an excellent way, and we can now launch it across multiple customer segments. We can bring all these customers to a new asset or market on our exchange. It’s retail, institutional, businesses, and developers from third parties all plugging into that.
So those are some of the things we’re focused on. Actually, if I could put in one more real quick: still the majority of financial services is running on the traditional financial system. It’s probably 90% or 95%, depending on how you estimate it. All fintech companies combined are probably 5% to 10% of financial services revenue, which is a massive, massive percentage of GDP.
The real opportunity, I think, is for tech-enabled fintechs to keep growing and capture that other 90% or 95% of the market. And these new categories, like agentic finance—that’s really our opportunity. We’re going to do our best to compete, but we’re also going to create new markets and capture share from TradFi.
Production, give me control again. Let me switch back to my—
Awesome. I definitely love the points about the decentralized financial system. I know you guys recently acquired Deribit, with your focus more on the institutional investor side of things. How have you seen the growth of that product—the perpetual futures and the options—and how have your plans with that shifted with the recent shift to a more positive regulatory environment in the US?
Yeah, so we acquired Deribit, which was the largest crypto options trading platform out there, and we’re making really good progress integrating it into our—
Yo, when I click my laptop, it’s showing this. This isn’t what I’m trying to show. I’m trying to show a tweet.
…existing product. We’ve now got this unified, regulated global exchange that crosses every market: perps, options, futures.
There we go.
We’re making Deribit available to both US—
I gotta hit “Share this tab.”
…and ex-US.
Let’s… We can still hear it.
So I think we’re one of the only companies that can unify the global liquidity.
Whatever production’s in, it’s like a third party.
Historically, this was fragmented across all the offshore stuff—
Mute it and just take it off, ’cause I have it open on my laptop too. I can just switch it myself.
…fragmented across all the offshore stuff, non-US. And then in the US, we had a different world. We’re now unifying much of this, and it’s been a huge benefit for us to acquire Deribit. We’ve said publicly we’re going to actually—
See, now we’re hearing it twice.
—not just with the GENIUS Act that became law, but the SEC and CFTC have been very forward-thinking and collaborative between the 2 agencies to get more of this stuff available in the US, because they want to see the US win, and so do we.
Perfect.
Frank’s gonna save us. Save us, Frank. See, like Brian, speak like this.
…that, um, not just with the GENIUS Act that became law, but the SEC and CFTC have been very forward-thinking and collaborative between the 2 agencies to get more of this stuff available in the US, because they want to see the US win, and so do we.
Yeah. As far as the Coinbase Pro product, I actually used to use it when it was GDAX back in the day, so it’s gonna be cool—
Oh, yeah.
—to see that come back.
Nice.
I know you guys have focused a lot on regulatory stuff in DC, but I feel like you haven’t done as much on the consumer retail marketing side. It seems like a lot of the exchanges that did focus heavily on that turned out not to have the best practices behind the scenes. I’m curious if you guys have plans to do more marketing on that front, to target a different consumer or customer segment.
Yeah, I know this perception is out there sometimes that we’re more focused on DC than on traders or something like that. In the wake of Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX blowing up, I remember there was this really critical moment where I felt like I had to go represent the industry there, because nobody else was doing it. In many ways, I feel like that helped the crypto industry. It could have gone really poorly under Gensler.
The industry could have effectively been banned in the US. We had to sue him and push back, and we won that case. There’s another version of history that looks a lot worse, and in many ways, I’m glad that we did that. This doesn’t mean it’s a zero-sum game. We can build products, talk to our customers, and help push the regulatory ball forward.
I’ll still be in DC periodically, but more and more of my focus is shifting to talking to our customers and improving our products. That’s gonna be my focus much more in 2027. I think I’d leave it at that.
Yeah.
Well, that’s a perfect place to end. We’re gonna focus on our customers. Thank you all for joining us for our Q&A for our Q3 2026 earnings. If you haven’t already, please go check out our presentation that Brian and I posted to our IR website, where we discuss our quarterly results. And we will see you next quarter. Thank you all.
Chat—
Good job.
—we’re gonna do one more extra little love airdrop for the people that just sat through that, because you deserve it. So say something nice to Brian Armstrong, about Brian Armstrong. W Brian, W Coinbase. Let’s get some happy Brian Armstrong love in here. Bullish Brian Armstrong chat. W Brian, Johnny Sins, whatever you want to do, and we’ll give one more person $1,000 from the chat. Something funny. Johnny Sins is played out. Bullish bald, Brian Mogs, I love Brian’s head. Slick voice. W One Punch Man, that’s the winner. That’s the winner. $1,000, W One Punch Man. That’s good. I’ve never heard anybody do that or seen that. How has nobody done this yet? Am I bugging? Spot the difference. Literally, this is what we need you to be right now. We need you to turn into One Punch Man and save the market. Unban me. All right, without further ado, can I go straight to 3BOX? Can I go straight 3BOX? Bam, there we go. Turn their mics on. Let’s go.
What’s good, Vane?
Yo, yo, yo.
Bro, what the fuck is happening today, bro?
Vane just spawned out of nowhere.
What the fuck is going on? Why?
Good take for a stream, eh?
Fuck.
We got sideswiped. We had a whole bunch of shit planned, and we kinda just got stun-locked out the gate.
Yeah. I mean, CZ—
We literally went live to the Binance hack. Just how bad is this, man? Should we be selling everything? Be honest. Just cut straight to the chase.
I don’t think so. I mean, I think—
They froze all of it.
—they froze, like, 80% of it almost instantly. So I think—
Yeah. What’s the percentage?
Circle froze, like, $800 million, and then Tether froze, like, a billion. So, of a $2.5 billion hack, to have 75% of it frozen already, not to mention what could get frozen later, I think this could’ve been way, way worse.
I agree.
Just by the skin of our fucking teeth, though, no? And who hacked this? AI?
We don’t know yet.
I mean, it’s like—
It’s gotta be AI, bro. It’s either AI or Frank DeGods.
Yeah.
Or Ansem.
Let’s start another Frank DeGods rumor.
Not me, bro.
That’s exactly what he wants.
Yeah, let’s not say it’s me, bro.
Nah, I saw Z fucking around on his phone right before Binance got hacked, bro.
No, no, bro.
I don’t know about your guys’ X feed, but mine for the last 7 days has been the most doomer ever.
That. Yeah.
I don’t know what tweet I clicked on that got me into this dark rabbit hole of, “By the way, you need 90 days of supplies or you’re gonna die.”
Yeah.
I don’t know. Are you guys taking that stuff seriously at all?
I’m not, bro. I’m not. But I feel like it’s kind of low effort to have it. I think they were talking about the internet going down and shit. Obviously, that’s a 1% or—
Yeah, the power grid.
—or lower probability. But I feel like it’s not that much of a hassle to figure out the walkie-talkie, the radio stuff, and have water. That’s the stuff I think you should have anyway. I feel like most people are just lazy and don’t have it. I don’t really think it’s gonna happen like that, obviously, but it made me think, “Well, why haven’t I done that?” It’s actually not that hard to—
Well, it’s like midterms, right?
…invest.
There’s a lot of stuff going on right now, a lot of FUD. Trump’s talking about re-upping the war with Iran post-midterms. I think this is one of those things where if the market is reacting bearishly to potential war and all this stuff, and then it doesn’t happen, those are usually actually pretty free longs.
Yeah, I agree.
Actually, that's true. Yeah, I think without all the AI stuff, the main reason I've been bearish is that I was expecting tech stocks to pull back, and they have been pulling back. But we could price in a lot of this shit really quickly. That's what I've seen happening with a lot of the pullbacks: people panic so hard and so fast that shit sells off to key levels a lot faster than it usually does. But maybe we get that.
Oh, dude, I watched your entire market update. I liked that. You should do those more. And I agree with a lot of the charts from a purely technical perspective.
Mm.
Bitcoin is still holding on, but a lot of these altcoins, things like ETH, have broken what I would argue is their daily structure.
Yeah.
That's pretty widespread across a lot of these crypto markets. A lot of these stocks have done the same thing, but equities are still holding on. I’ve got a pretty big level around 76.20 on ES. If we lose that on the 3-day or weekly, that's a structure break, and NQ has a similar level at 28,820.
Mm.
If we crack those levels, then, yeah, I agree—we'll see some downside. I could totally see Bitcoin trading back to $65K, below $70K for sure. I could see ETH going below $2K. That's not even that far from where we are now.
Yeah.
But I do think those are opportunities to bid. A lot of people are getting super bearish. If you zoom out on all these charts, a big pullback is ideally a higher low, right? I think Bitcoin putting in a higher low at $70K is a great opportunity to buy.
Yeah.
So I'm not too concerned about major doom and gloom. I'm still pretty much on the higher-low trade. Bob Loukas posted that he thinks if Bitcoin's going to go, it should go from here. If we're going to put in the higher low where we are right now, we've had 3 bearish weeks in a row, so I think this weekly candle needs to put in a swing low.
Yeah.
Otherwise, I think there's a pretty good chance we see at least below $75K.
What do you think about HYPE, bro? I feel like HYPE is the one chart that low-key didn't break down. Then we had the news come out today with the ICE thing.
Bro, as the kids would say: aura. Damn, Druckenmiller only tweets once, and it's about you?
Aura, bro.
And it's about crypto.
It's insane.
I'm like, dude, this is pretty crazy. Hyperliquid looks amazing. It's like a big weekly retest, and obviously time, price, and news are all colliding at the same spot. Maybe people will think Flood is smart again. People were pretty mean to him the last couple of weeks, and now his biggest bag is rallying again.
Yeah.
I think HYPE looks amazing. I'm hoping now we get the hundred-dollar effect. We're at $95, right? I would love for this to overshoot to $104 or $105, and then we can say, okay, $100 has been hit. That's a big psychological level.
Yeah, I agree, bro. It's super strong. I bet people are underappreciating how well they've executed over the past 3 years. They went from zero to the top of the board.
Greatest crypto project ever. Is that even a crazy thing to say?
No, I don't think so, bro.
I don't think so.
I think it's consensus, to be honest.
Yeah. The team is cracked out of their mind.
Yeah.
They're making money hand over fist. They're hitting every single vertical you could want them to hit.
Yeah.
And if they're now onboarded to the U.S. with the help of Kraken, and they're working with ICE, everything's on-chain and it all runs through Hyperliquid.
So crazy, bro. What are your guys' long-term thoughts?
The $1,000 token. I think this is like BNB 5 years ago or whatever. It seems so consensus, but if you look at the weekly chart, I can visualize this being one of those moments where people say, “Man, how obvious was it to buy that early couple-year uptrend before the absolute parabolic ascent?” Especially if Bitcoin is at the end of a bear market, worst case. Best case, we're already beginning the bull. This thing's going to go gangbusters.
Yeah, I definitely agree. I think people aren't even pricing in what happens if they're not just the underpinning for these main exchanges, but also bring the assets and people all over the world that aren't currently being traded or aren't currently on-chain. I think a lot of the FX stuff isn't even being considered right now. That's a huge, huge, huge market.
People don't realize how huge the Forex market is.
It's huge.
It's trillions and trillions of dollars.
Yeah.
And with 1,000x leverage, too. You can trade on the most random FX broker, and the liquidity is infinite. It's transacting trillions of dollars, and you get giga leverage because the moves are smaller. All of that is going on-chain. It's just an eventuality.
It's like Tool King[?] said last week: it's the coins that are money and the coins that make money that are doing just fine.
Yeah, I talked about this at Token2049 with Andy and Kyle and stuff. We finally have a clear way to value these tokens: does it make money, to your point, or is it money?
Mm-hmm.
It's going to be a whole lot harder for other projects to get any attention or momentum unless they're one of those two things, outside of pure memes. All the stuff that existed in between, where it's an altcoin that doesn't consider itself a meme coin because it does some random bullshit, is going to fall by the wayside. There are going to be the tokens and projects that make money, actual money, and then the pure speculative meme plays that we know do nothing.
Yeah.
And the good thing about that is the concentrated bid I think is happening, especially with Druck supporting HYPE. There's so much capital behind that, so much money that trusts what he says. I think Hyperliquid is fixing a lot of the perception that crypto is a scam right now.
Yeah. The way things are shaping up, I would love for the S&P 500 to drop 20%. Give us one big washout, reset everything, and then in 2027 we're back to risk-on and shit gets nutty, because it is percolating for HYPE, dude. If Bitcoin's going to $100K early next year, oh my God.
Yeah.
I saw a recent interview with Arthur Hayes where he said he thinks people are too bullish on Hyperliquid. Did you see that?
I haven't seen that.
Who tweeted this? Arthur Hayes?
It was Arthur Hayes. It was in an interview, and he was like, “I think people might be too consensus on Hyperliquid.” I'm like, “Are you just a hater?” I don't think—
Oh, I think I did see this. He was basically saying people are too consensus, like everybody—and that it's not new or whatever. Something like that.
Yeah, and I'm like, I just don't know, man. How can you not have this as one of your core pieces of your bag? I don't think there's been a more no-brainer play. I'll be interested to see how Lido responds to this, as well.
Mm.
I know they had a new announcement about what they're doing with Robinhood. It's been the most obvious beta, and it's down 40% to 50% off its high.
Yeah.
And it's coming into demand, so I think there could be a trade there, too.
Yeah. I think a lot of crypto people own less HYPE now than they did at the beginning, to be honest.
Yeah.
The crypto people got some crazy airdrops. I know I was in it super early, but a lot of people printed on that trade and were de-risking into the strength, and that shit just kept going up. A lot of people de-risked into a 10x or 20x. But it's been getting absorbed by the TradFi guys and some other larger-capital investors, obviously, like Druck and other people who've been watching it. So I actually think CT has less HYPE now than it did a year ago, to be honest.
You know what’s funny? I don’t think the average CT participant realizes how deep institutional money goes.
Yeah, for sure.
We think, “Oh, Binance getting hacked for $2 billion—this is peanuts to these institutional-level guys.” We’re talking hundreds of billions, trillions of dollars of capital. The HYPE trade, to your point, is almost like the early days of Bitcoin: Who are these weak hands? Who are the strong hands buying all the Bitcoin at these bear-market lows? It’s becoming more obvious that institutions have major interest in a few cryptos, HYPE being one of them, clearly, and Bitcoin obviously being another one, in my opinion. They have infinite money.
Yeah.
Like, infinite money. Our expectation that Bitcoin should pull back 70% to 80%—if the institutions are here, they can just decide that’s not the thing anymore. This is where the floor is, and they just make the floor.
Yeah.
And based on how Hyperliquid is trading, you almost get the vibe that they knew about this. If you’re hearing about it from Druck now, these guys are already in, right?
Yeah, for sure. Yeah.
They’re already in. If you look at the chart, from January to now—which is 10 months—this thing has just been in a giga-uptrend.
Yeah.
While Bitcoin has been in objectively a bear market.
Yeah.
So who’s doing the buying? It’s not CT, to your point. I think CT has been taking profit the entire way.
Yeah.
So, yeah, dude, it’s pretty crazy. I think that’s exciting for crypto because maybe now things are going to trade and react differently than what we’re used to.
Yeah, bro. When HYPE held $20 in January and Bitcoin dropped 30%, I was like, “Oh, okay.”
Yeah.
This is a way different situation than what we’ve had before.
Yeah, the big dogs are in the room.
Yeah. What do you think, though? Say we get the pullback in equities. I’m in the camp that we lose those 2 key levels you talked about.
Yeah.
And we get, like, a 10% drop or whatever. If we get another 10% to 15% downside in equities from here, where do you think HYPE, Zcash, and some of the other major alts, like Pump, go?
I’ve been tracking this fractal from the last bottom to now, and it’s almost identical to what Bitcoin is doing.
Yeah.
Bitcoin traded up to $25K, then it dropped to $19K.
Yeah.
That’s like a 20% pullback. So if we get a similar pullback on Bitcoin now, that puts us just under $70K.
Mm.
Depending on how bad the carnage is in equities, it could go a lot lower. The last time we topped the exact same way in equities, we pulled back anywhere from 15% to 20%.
Okay.
I think that lines up very well with Bitcoin pulling back 20% to 25%. For Hyperliquid, what I’d ideally like to see is the Hundy roll effect give us that higher high, because we still haven’t put in a higher high yet.
Yep.
Then the next higher low could be all the way back down at $80, right?
Oh, okay. Oh, okay.
Give us that higher high, because it’s been weekly retest after weekly retest on this thing.
It’s held pretty clean.
It’s insanely clean, dude.
Yeah.
I pulled up the chart on today’s move. I had that big fair value gap on the weekly, and it just took out that former low. It’s like an SFP. It’s like, goddamn, dude, why did I not—
That’s cool.
—full-port this with everybody’s money?
Yeah, bro. I was thinking the same thing. How the fuck did I see this happen and not slam this?
Dude—
By the way, I asked both of you your opinion on my trade when I basically half-ported into Hyperliquid. I told you guys—
I know.
I was like—
That’s usually how it goes, bro.
You should totally do this.
’Cause I think you were more in ETH, right? It was like, “Yeah, I’m gonna get out of ETH and I’m gonna go into HYPE.”
No, I said I’m finally gonna swap it all over. I’m just gonna position myself in Hyperliquid and Bitcoin, and that’s what I did.
Yeah.
Yeah.
And you nailed it.
Yeah.
Wait, do you trade options, bro?
A little bit.
A little bit?
A little bit. The problem I have with options is I find it hard enough to pick the direction of the coin. Trying to tell you when that move’s gonna happen as well, it just… But you get convexity as a trade-off. I’d be interested in digging a little more into it. Have you been messing around?
I haven’t yet, but I feel like it’s worth the time to spend doing. I trade a little bit, but never as aggressively as I do with perps or anything else. I’ve seen Derive doing really well with its on-chain options, and I think we’ve never seen options do well in crypto. There could be a period where they start to do well. The reason I’m asking is I’ve been watching these tech earnings plays all week, bro. Meta got crushed last week. Amazon got crushed today. Google got crushed yesterday. Intel was down 20%, got crushed. I think we’re in a rare period where people were so bullish on AI, and there’s this complacency around earnings because they’ve typically been great for everybody.
Yeah.
It’s like, damn, bro, I should’ve been in puts this week. I should’ve been in puts on some of these plays.
The problem is, do you do zero-day options? Do you do end-of-week expiries? That’s what I always find most difficult about options: picking when the contract expires and trying to better understand how to capture that convexity.
Yeah.
But yeah, dude, I agree. The issue options are going to have in crypto is, one, they’re complex. I think the average crypto participant is more dumb, for lack of a better term, than people in traditional finance.
True.
They are getting smarter, though. I had a very interesting conversation with someone. He said, “The crypto market as a whole is becoming more efficient, and the people involved are smarter now. Whether it’s from learning or smarter people are now in crypto, I think we’re going to see crypto continue to get more efficient.” But the perp is the ultimate financial instrument, dude.
I love the perp, bro.
It’s the best.
Nothing better than the perp, bro. Don’t get it.
Yeah, it’s the best. I feel like it’s going to be hard to get people away from it. The way these companies are going to have to do it is through marketing and explaining: “Hey, you can get insane convexity, and your risk can be defined by the cost of the contract.” If you spend $5,000 on a bunch of puts, that’s your max risk.
Yep.
That’s your stop loss. They can all be worthless. I’d be down to mess around with options a little and see if we can find some ways to—
Yeah.
Is Derive the best place to do it, you think, right now?
Yeah, Derive—
Easy crypto.
I think Derive for sure. I know there’s this app called Dream. I haven’t used it yet, but they’re also a mobile thing.
Dream?
Dream, I think it’s called.
Yeah. Actually, I’m a seed investor in Dream. Let’s use Dream.
Oh, really?
Yeah. Three years ago, dude. They finally launched. I’ve got to respond to that guy. He said, “Hey, dude, we’re finally live with beta,” and I was like, “Just too busy.” One of those random checks, yo.
I’m down. Where did you hear about it, Z?
Dream, I actually know the founder. I didn’t invest in it, but I met him after he—
Got it.
—raised.
But yeah, he’s just a dude on Twitter. He’s actually cool. His name’s Dom. They’re cool. I think it’ll be funny for us to do options. Bro, we trade perps all day, and then we’ve gotta learn fucking options to try to make money on options.
I like the name. Dreaming’s a good name.
Huh?
Bring in insentos.
The app is—
Bring in insentos?
It—
I think it’s insentos in the background. Can we pull the homie?
Yeah, let’s fucking pull him. Stay on, man. Stay on. Let’s all just chop it up. We got you.
Chop it.
It’ll be good to get insentos’ take and view on the markets, because he’s obviously in the trenches on-chain. He’s kind of like a new-wave trader. I think him in a conversation with you guys right now is—
What up, bro?
What up?
Could be very interesting.
What’s up? What’s up?
What up, gang?
How much money are you down today?
That’s crazy.
Actually, I’m not down. I actually owe money today, trenching.
Are you?
That’s crazy.
Yeah.
Are you shorting shit?
Nah, nah. Just trading memes, low caps, just in the field.
Really?
Yeah. Surprisingly, the trenches actually aren’t that bad.
For real?
Trenches never die, bro. I think if we’ve seen anything over the past year, people thought that shit was gonna go away. Shit is not going away. It’s not going away.
Yeah.
I was curious: when Binance is getting hacked, generally when this kind of stuff happens, Bitcoin and altcoins just nuke, right?
Yeah.
People freak out. Do you see that same effect in the trenches, where people start nuking their bags? Or are they like, “We do not care”?
Nah. I think with every piece of news, there’s always something that runs, even if it’s to a couple hundred K. There’s always gonna be something, and that’s how there’s always money to be made. There’s always gonna be a meme. There’s always gonna be a twist on a coin. So yeah, I don’t think there’s a—
I see the GTA VI coins are going crazy today. Why?
I don’t know. I saw one at around $20 million, I think, but I thought it was crazy bundled. I don’t even know. It was one of those coins—
Yeah, I was buying it three weeks ago at $1 million, and I obviously don’t own any today, of course. I’m just curious as to what the fuck’s going on.
Yeah. No one knows. I saw tweets like, “No one knows why this is up.” It’s just ridiculously high for no reason.
Yeah.
When you’re trenching, are you mostly trading new pairs? What’s your trenching setup?
A crime.
Bro, when you’re trenching, are you mostly trading new pairs? What’s your setup?
Yeah, trenching is definitely a lot different than just actually buying memes.
Yeah.
But it’s literally just new pairs. For example, today, I think the runner I hit was Elon saying “interesting” to the investor. I forgot the guy’s name.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Druckenmiller.
He’s so good. Yeah, he said, like, “Interesting.”
That was a coin?
Yeah, there was a coin called ELONG. It was paired to, like, whatever, Hyperliquid, and then the coin went to around $600K. I was like, that was a pretty good cook.
Wow, $600K. I’m not even aware this shit is happening, bro. That’s crazy.
Yeah.
Bro, I’m so washed if that’s what it takes to make a coin.
Yeah, it’s pretty crazy.
Elon has tweeted “Interesting.” That’s his favorite thing to say. He finds the most random shit and he’s like, “Interesting.”
Yeah.
Do you have a monitor for certain people’s tweets and shit? I know some people have that. Or do you just react to stuff as it gets created?
Yeah, it’s like a Twitter monitor. Also, even if you’re not paying attention to the Twitter monitor, sometimes seeing new pairs is a source of news as well. You see a coin get deployed and look at why it’s running or pumping.
Yeah. I have a lot of questions about this, because I have no idea how a lot of this shit works. I see a lot of pushback on pumping some of the launchpads and certain traders who are trenchers. From what I see on Twitter, there’s a segmentation: people who trade new pairs, and people who deploy new pairs and also bundle them.
Yeah.
I don’t really understand how people are differentiating what’s okay and what’s not okay. Is it okay to create a coin, but you’re not supposed to buy a lot of it? Is it okay to trade new pairs, but you’re not supposed to dev them? I don’t really understand the ecosystem or the morality of the different participants. It seems very unclear to me what people think about it.
Yeah, honestly, I feel like trenchers deploying coins is kind of looked down upon. I don’t do it. I’ve never deployed a coin.
Yeah.
But a lot of the time, for example, Senzu, Ethan Prosper, and Cupsey—I don’t think he deploys. The reason these trenchers deploy coins most of the time is because they want to buy the correct coin.
Yeah.
A lot of the time, they vamp or just deploy something because that’s the coin they want to buy.
Yeah.
Obviously, they’re gonna have supply and sell it, but I don’t think it’s really that bad to deploy. When you get to the deep roots of the Proxima bundles and all that stuff, a lot of people really hate that too.
Yeah.
The farms and stuff.
I watch DV’s stream, and every time there’s a hot narrative, there are 10 deploys for the coin.
Yeah.
When I’m watching them trade, they’re getting rugged on the same coin because they’re buying multiple coins that are actually the same coin. Then one of them wins out, and they go heavier into that one.
Yeah.
That kind of makes sense why you’d want to be deving them, then.
Do you have a buy size for when a new narrative comes out and there are 10 deploys or five deploys of the coin? Do you buy each one with a set amount?
Yeah, I have—
Bro, I have buttons for each fucking size.
Yeah. When it gets like that, you just have to hope the narrative is good enough. A lot of the time, you’ll gamble on five and the narrative ends up being shit, and you lose on all five. You just have to hope the narrative is actually good enough to size into one of them, if that makes sense.
That does make sense.
No, that makes total sense.
What’s Proxima?
I think a lot of people just assume it’s pure gambling. But I’m pretty sure these guys know how much they’re willing to punt on a coin, and they’re accepting that it could all go to zero.
Yeah, exactly.
Hey.
You said, “What’s Proxima?”
The hack is still going.
Yeah. Huh?
The hack is still going. They’re draining more.
The hack is still going? The Binance hack is still going, apparently.
They’re saying it’s—
I’ve seen news that KuCoin might’ve been hacked as well.
They’re draining. It says—let’s see.
Claude’s going nuts today.
Grok, Grok. Bro, they had to justify that $1.5 trillion valuation. They said, “No, we’re gonna use this to hack everything.”
Grokbot’s up today. Crazy.
Damn, Grokbot just hit Alex Moss on Twitter and said, “DM.” Definitely AI, definitely AI.
Yeah, this Binance hack is crazy.
It is insane.
Oh, $2.7 billion. I’m trying to see what more info there is on it.
They’re still draining.
They’re still draining it.
It’s kind of nuts this happens the same day that Hyperliquid gets the stamp from—
It’s so poetic.
TradFi.
Crazy. Crazy.
So poetic, bro. Hype to $100-plus. We need that for the industry.
So, bro, do you have any other coins you’re bullish on besides maybe Solana or Bitcoin itself? You’re trenching, you have SOL, whatever. Is there anything you’re interested in? Do you have bags, or are you primarily in Tether or Solana and just trying to make money?
Yeah, I just try to make money now. Last month, I was definitely trying to buy majors and swing-trade perps, and then I got absolutely wrecked when everything took a huge dip. But now I’m just back to the roots of trying to make money trading regularly.
Stick to what you know, type shit.
Yeah.
Well, dude, I think it’d be a sick video, because I’ve never trenched a day in my life. I’ve got a FOMO account. I bought a few coins, and I’m down $150K, just because my hold time is 50 days. Everyone’s like, “Well, that’s your problem. You can’t hold anything for 50 days.”
Yeah.
But I’d love to sit with a trencher and be like, “Yeah, I’m gonna show you how to trade perps and make money doing it.”
Yeah.
But in return, you have to show me how to actually make a dollar.
That would actually be a good video.
That’s interesting.
You guys should do that with each other and teach each other for a week. You show up every day and stream the process of teaching each other. You spend an hour teaching him, and he spends an hour teaching you. After the week, you go your separate ways, fund a fresh new portfolio with like 100 bands, and just see who—
See who makes more money?
Yeah, see who can make more money doing the other thing.
Well, what’s interesting is that, at least in my view, the average person—I’m part of the CT class—thinks trenching is all scams. They think the only way people make money trenching is if they’re the deployer, or if they have insider knowledge. I know that’s clearly not the case; this is a skill-based endeavor.
It’d be cool to be like, “Okay, on a wallet nobody knows I have, I didn’t know how to do this before. If I can make money, it stands to reason that with the right tools, ability, and work, you could do this too.”
Yeah.
I just think most people don’t think that. The average person sees guys like you and thinks, “Oh, these guys are all in cahoots.” Anytime—
Yeah.
—any trencher hits a bag, they’re like, “Oh, shit, they got the phone call.”
Yeah.
Yeah, exactly.
They got the insider call that this is the coin. It just happened with Rasmer[?] and the Kimchi coin.
Right.
I think it’s just as plausible that Kimchi was doing his thing, and everyone knew there was probably gonna be a Kimchi coin. Like, that would be—
Yeah, exactly. Yeah.
Someone’s gonna launch a coin. I assume most of you probably bought a few that went to zero before the one ran.
Oh, yeah.
—I was in the wrong one too.
Yeah, I bought the wrong one twice. Everyone knew there was gonna be a runner; it was kinda hard to pick the right one.
Yeah.
Mayne and I have an undoxxed FOMO, and it cracked the top 300 all time at one point.
Really?
I was up like $250K. Now I’m getting smoked. I think I’m up maybe $100K all time, or so. But—
Cool.
Yeah, the idea is to run it up to $1 million realized—seven-figure realized.
That would be sick.
And then just dox it. Yeah, it’s—
I put a ton of money right into fucking Orbio before this pullback because I read their stuff. I was like, “Oh, this team is so cracked. I’m so bullish on this shit.” I think I poured a lot of money into it when it was around $90 million. It’s at around $30 million now, so that definitely hurt the port. I sold some other random shit to get into it.
But, yeah, I think that would be super interesting. I’ve seen enough people continue to win—guys like you—that it’s like, okay, obviously this is skill-based. I find it so interesting because it’s a completely different skill from what I think Z and I are used to doing, which is—
Yeah.
—swing trading, trading perps.
Yeah.
Completely different, bro. I’m good at finding the shit that’s in the $5 million to $10 million range and trying to pick which ones I think are gonna go higher than that. But the trenching shit is a completely different game.
Yeah, I think everyone could do it, though. Honestly, I do. You guys—everyone knows what a good coin is.
Mm.
It’s just sitting there and waiting for a good coin.
Yeah, that’s true.
And just trying to be as early as possible while not trying to lose—
Mate, we should run it, bro—
—as much money as possible.
We should run it together and just—
Let’s do it.
—and post the video after. Just see how much money we lose.
TR did it. TR hit a fat SI trade on an undoxxed wallet and then made a whole video about it.
Yeah.
How much did he realize, insentos? Like 300 bands? Something like that?
No, I think he made—
Some more, I think, yeah.
—a million.
Did he?
No, what the fuck?
But that trade was a little bit longer-term, right?
Yeah.
Because I remember Trump had started tweeting, like, “We’re calling it this now.” Even I was like—
Yeah.
—I could see this being a runner. He’s constantly pushing, like, “This is what it’s called now.” But, yeah, picking the right one, having the conviction, putting the money behind it—I don’t know what the mental block—
By the way, the fact that it only topped at $55 million, I think, was the ultimate signal—the freest signal—to get your fucking money off-chain.
Mm-hmm.
Yeah.
To be honest, that should have been it. I was saying it too. I just fucking—
Do you think we return to a world where coins like PEPE— I saw a very interesting thread saying PEPE gave people unrealistic expectations of what meme coins are actually capable of. We’re not gonna see these coins go to double-digit billions anymore; it’s just not a thing. Do you think we get back to a world where that happens, or is the money too dispersed? Is it moving too quickly for anything to be that concentrated of a bet and go to $10 billion-plus?
My mind would be fucking blown if a—
Yeah, I don’t—
—a meme coin went to $10 billion.
Yeah, a lot of people—we’re in a very hyper-rotating market. Everyone’s just thinking about the next thing. I think it would take a lot for a coin to go to $1 billion, go to $2 billion.
It would have to escape the confines and the rules that people—
Well, what was the biggest one last cycle? Was it WIF?
PEPE was bigger. PEPE went to $12 billion, WIF went to $5 billion.
But PEPE went—
BONK went to $5 billion.
—but PEPE was two cycles old. PEPE’s been around.
It was a new one, though. It was a new PEPE.
There was a new PEPE that went to $12 billion?
Yeah. PEPE went from zero to $12 billion for sure. For sure. Yeah, 2023.
You know that.
Yeah, I mean, it first topped around $2 billion.
But, bro, Shiba Inu went to $45 billion.
I know. Yeah, it was nuts.
So—
Shiba went to $40 billion. Doge went to—
So insane.
—$75 billion or something.
Like, crazy. Do we ever get a coin back there? How does it happen? I just don’t know if it’s possible.
I think it’s possible. I think you’d have to go so viral outside of our circle—
Yeah.
—of people. WIF, I think, had 200K holders—
If it’s gonna happen, it’s gonna happen on TikTok and shit.
—or something around there.
Yeah.
It would have to be somebody who’s so viral outside of CT that everybody knows who they are, and there are millions and millions of holders. I think there would have to be something attached to it. This can’t just be a pure meme. That’s my thought. Or just delusional, optimistic, cult-like communities. Like, that—
Yeah.
—that, that... Yeah.
We just need more players in the casino, in the video game, you know? How do you get...
How do you get new people to trade crypto? I feel like we could probably reach a point where a lot of people stop sports betting and playing blackjack, and actually start trying to use educated guesses to trade.
Right.
Use educated guesses to trade.
Yeah. I think the mobile app, plus perps, plus on-chain going—
Getting a lot more popular this cycle is how you see stuff like that happen. I do think the one good thing we’re going to see is, if Hyperliquid is successful in integrating through a lot of the U.S. and you see equity perps on-chain, that could get hundreds of billions or trillions of assets moved on-chain.
Then obviously a lot of that capital, especially if it lives in a place where people are trading those assets, is also going to be trading other things on-chain. I think that’s how something like that happens: when you have such a larger customer base.
100%.
Insane.
Well, these charts look disgusting, bro. I am not fucking with the charts, bro.
Yeah, like—
It’s not.
I’m holding till it’s over.
Okay.
Short on Bitcoin still. To me, 75K just—
Oh my God, bro.
Gets run. But again, dude, look at the weekly chart. Tell me this doesn’t look exactly the same as the last bottom, which would include a run of 75K. It is bar for bar the same trade.
You’re talking about early 2023, right?
Yeah, like—
Yeah.
Look at the move in March 2023, where we took out that weekly low. We did the exact same thing, man. We broke out of the bottom, put in a weekly structure break, and had a little bit of a move up. It was lackluster: a 25% pullback, and then it ripped again.
I don’t know. If this plays out the exact same and I somehow don’t full-port long the higher low, I’m going to blow my shit off.
I think I’m going full-port Zcash, bro. I’ve been thinking about what the fuck I buy if this shit really does nuke like this, because right now I’m in the camp that ETH goes to, like, 1,800 and Bitcoin goes to, like—
Yeah, 65.
High 60s. Yeah.
Yeah.
Mid- to high 60s. I’m in that camp right now. And if that happens, what happens to alts? Then what alts do I want to buy?
78, yeah.
I think I want to buy Zcash at, like, 750, bro.
At 900? 1,050?
750.
750?
750.
Yeah, I could see that. I think anywhere between 750 and 900 is probably pretty good value.
Bro, if I get Zcash at 750, I think you just—
And it’s just a retest of the prior all-time high.
Blind, I think you just blind-slam it, bro. I was super bullish, and I thought it was going to hold 1,400. Then it broke down. That was my first signal to be like, “Okay, the strongest coin is not as strong anymore.”
Why do you think XMR doesn’t get any of the beta love you’d expect?
Bro, they don’t have the cabal, bro.
They don’t have Israel?
They don’t have the cabal. They don’t have Israel. They don’t have the rich people, like—
They don’t have Frank DeGods.
Bro, the rich Bitcoiners—They don’t have Frank DeGods. The rich Bitcoiners have decided that Zcash is the private version of Bitcoin. I’m not arguing with them, to be honest. But the Monero chart looks good.
Should we start a crazy rumor that we’ve never seen Frank DeGods and Netanyahu in the same room?
Oh my God, imagine.
I mean, we haven’t.
They’d sell a ton.
I haven’t, that’s true.
I mean, Bitcoin’s at 78K. This is about the time when I go on Twitter and tell Frank to kill himself. I’m gonna go ahead and do that.
Is he still short?
Frank’s short.
Frank, is he still short?
I don’t know what the trade is, but I definitely know I’m gonna go tell Frank DeGods to kill himself on Twitter.
Bro, Frank and I were at a dinner the other day. We were both like, “Bro, we’re bearish as fuck right now.” We’re both very short.
Yeah, he was on my stream on Thursday, and he’s like, “Dude, please tell me we’re nuking. I’m short as shit.”
Yeah. I wonder if he’s still short. He gets in and out of positions pretty frequently, though.
He shorted HYPE this morning.
Yeah, that was sick. I was just like, “Yeah, you’re just trying to big-dick the table.” That was sick. I didn’t see that. I wonder if he’s in that. I haven’t checked. I don’t check his position.
He’s got a Hyperliquid wallet.
Yeah, on FOMO he’s 20x short on Bitcoin.
On what? Is he still short SOXL? I think SOXL is a good one.
He’s only short Bitcoin and ETH, at least on this.
On FOMO?
Yeah.
Man, SOXL looks like shit.
It looks like shit, bro. That’s what I’m telling you. Shit does not look good.
Dude, I told my brother when Leopold blew up, “This is the most poetic top from a fundamental perspective, this guy just getting blown out.” But my brother is fully in the camp, as I think a lot of retail are, that there’s just infinite demand for these AI companies, these hyperscalers, and neoclouds. And it’s like, yeah, maybe. Or maybe the businesses aren’t that good.
Bro, the worst thing for these retail investors right now is how much money the memory stocks are making. They’re never going to sell. They’re literally not going to sell, because they’re gonna be like, “It’s trading at 7x P/E. Why would I sell it?” Bro, the stock is up, like, fucking 20x.
A trillion. Yeah.
Bro, it went from 100 billion to 1 trillion in a year.
Yeah.
Are people gonna be taking profits? It’s crazy because it looks and feels exactly like altcoins used to feel. Altcoins would go up 10x, then they’d go up another 10x, and it’s like, what the fuck is happening? Nobody wants to sell, and then shit goes down 70%, 80%.
Parabolas perform the exact same way with every single asset, no matter what the asset is. If it’s crypto, stocks, or commodities, it’s all the same people.
Yeah. They go both ways, too.
It’s all the same people. It’s all the exact same thing. I don’t think they’ve experienced that aggressive volatility sell-off yet, because these things have not gone down. Even the memory stocks right now are down, like, 30% from all-time highs, but they’re still up, like, 3x on the year.
Yeah. What do you think about gold? I think gold goes sub-$4K, takes a bit of a dumpster dive, and then bottoms. I’d love to buy gold around 3,800, 3,700.
Yeah. I’m in the same camp. I was looking at gold, and it went crazy parabolic. Every asset feels like it’s gone parabolic, and then they blow off the top and now it’s just—
Didn’t they just figure out how to—
Falling back—
Turn fucking lead into gold?
Yeah, but it remains radioactive for, like, a decade. It’s nowhere near where lab diamonds are relative to the diamond market yet.
Yeah.
But you can imagine.
Yeah.
It’s the same argument: they learn how to land one of Elon’s rockets on one of these asteroids—
Yeah.
—that’s got more gold than—
Made of gold. Yeah.
—we even know. I do think what you were saying, Izzy, is the trickiest part for me: so much stuff looks like it can die, yet I’m hoping Bitcoin is at the end of a bear or the beginning of a bull. Do you just treat this trade in a vacuum? Is Bitcoin just going to bottom before everything else?
There’s an argument to be made that if the memory trade continues to implode, and the AI trade and the equity buckets re-rate down significantly, Bitcoin could make a new low. It’s not impossible.
I know, bro.
I don’t want to believe that’s the case, but it could still go to, like, 50. That isn’t insane. If equities pull back 20%—
Yeah.
—that’s not out of control for Bitcoin to pull back 35%.
Yeah. It’s pretty fucked up. I was thinking through this the other day. I’m also not in that camp yet, but I was thinking it would make sense if this bounce was a countertrend bounce, and we’re still in a macro downtrend. Crypto just topped first, and now equities are topping and pulling back deeper. Then it would make sense for crypto to continue its downtrend.
And, like—
And crypto could bottom first—
Which is, like—
It’s definitely gonna bottom first, for sure.
Yeah, which isn’t crazy. If you look at prior bottoms, Bitcoin itself will often bottom before the crypto stocks do.
Yeah.
Then you’ll see the Coinbases and things like that bottom kind of after the fact. How does MicroStrategy look? Actually, pretty much exactly the same. Same trade as Bitcoin.
Bro, you know the one stock that looks really good?
Bro, Coinbase.
Eli Lilly.
Yeah, bro. What are your thoughts on all the—
Oh, Eli Lilly looks great.
—peptide stuff? Every person I know is on peptides.
Didn’t Tool King just say it’s a buy?
Oh, yeah. Tool King says Eli Lilly is his largest position in his portfolio, by a lot. I think it’s one of the stocks that’s kind of uncorrelated to all the AI overinvestment going on. The peptide stuff is gonna continue to get a lot more popular. But really, it’s the fat-loss drugs that are working really, really well. That’s something that’s gonna print so much money for them, because everybody wants to be fit, and if you can take a pill or whatever it is to get there, that’s obviously gonna print them a fuck ton of money over the next few years.
Dude, and they’re finding the side effects are actually really good for your kidneys, and good for all these other things as well that we didn’t even know about. Being overweight is the number one comorbidity for every type of death, basically.
Yeah.
So just being skinnier naturally is better for you. What do you think about Nike, dude? I’m long Nike.
Really? Why?
Dude, everyone’s shitting on Nike.
Is it gonna turn around?
I think Nike’s due for some sort of mean reversion here.
Okay. God, it’s down so much.
That’s what I’m saying, bro. They beat earnings every single time. Everyone still fucks with Nike.
Wow. Yeah, it’s down like 80%. This makes no sense.
I know. I went long at 35, and my stop-loss is 32. I think it could go to 50 or 60 at least. It’s like a double.
Yeah, this looks good. If it gets back above 39, 40, I could see it fill this gap to 50. Yeah, I see what you’re talking about. I see this trade.
Bro, and again, it’s completely out of the AI realm. This thing’s been in a bear market for 5 years.
Yeah. That’s what we need to find, bro. We need to find stuff that’s not correlated to AI right now, because I do think those things could do well.
Yeah. Commodities, retail, just fucking anything.
Yeah.
Do you dabble in any stock trading, insentos?
If I see something trending on CT, I’ll probably take a trade. The last stock I traded was MU, and the stock before that was Marvell. If it’s something CT traders are talking about, I’ll probably touch it. Besides that, not really.
How do you think about retirement? You’re in your early 20s—I don’t know if your age is doxxed. Do you have a dollar figure you’re trying to make, to set yourself up so you don’t have to trench and do as much work? Or do you not think about it at all? Are you just like, “I love this. I wanna do this forever, all day”?
I think I’ve positioned myself so I’m kind of set, in a way.
Yeah.
Nice.
Obviously, anything can happen. Now I’m just trading to reach the next level, you know? I don’t really think about retirement, though. I don’t have a 401(k) or anything like that.
You should.
I guess—
Well, I guess you’re in Puerto Rico, so it doesn’t even matter, bro. Bro’s paying fucking 4%—no capital gains—living the dream.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah, you got your shit. You’re chilling. You’re chilling. I feel you. Trading is one of those things where you can do it forever; you just gotta continue to get better at it. Obviously, we’re talking about options. I wanna get better at different strategies and shit, so just always get better.
But don’t you find that how you’ve traded has changed as you’ve gotten older, cycle over cycle? I don’t take any low-time-frame trades anymore. I just can’t do it. I used to scalp, and now I’m taking all my trades based on the daily chart.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I definitely move a lot slower. The only time I’m really on low time frames is when I think either a big liquidation period is about to happen or we’re at a major, major, major swing low. Then I’ll lock in. But outside of that, I’m just—
I think of it like being a basketball player, bro. Early in your career, you’re running, diving for the ball, slashing to the hoop. As you get older, it’s like, “Okay, it’s time to develop a post-up game. I don’t got the cardio anymore.” You move slow, but you can still dominate; it’s just a different way. I find it so interesting, because I remember being in my early 20s, and you couldn’t get me off the screen. When I was at my job, I was on the charts. The moment I got home, I was on the charts. In my mind, it was like, the more time on the charts, the more money I’m gonna make. Obviously, that’s not always the case, but—
Yeah. I feel like if the trenching shit had been popular in 2020, 2021, I would’ve been on that, bro.
Yeah.
I would’ve been all on that. In 2020, 2021, we were bridging back and forth between chains, but there wasn’t a main launchpad, so there weren’t a lot of coins for you to be trenching on. But if you found the meme early on whatever chain you bridged to, you basically won the game.
Yeah.
What did I buy in 2021? I bought SAMO on Sol.
Was 2021 BNB season?
BNB went crazy that year.
Yeah, BNB went nuts, dude.
A lot of the DeFi games and stuff were cool. All the yield farming, super-inflationary tokens. Yeah, that shit was cool.
NFTs were a movie.
NFTs were a movie in 2020, 2021.
Do you think they come back? Any faith in NFTs?
Um, I think—
I do, I do.
I think long term, digital property in the form of buildings, real estate, skins—yeah. I think CryptoPunks are fucking digital Picassos, personally.
I have a Punk just because, to me, it’s history. It’s—
Yeah, how would you not have one, though?
Yeah. I feel like I need to have some exposure, and they’ve held up every single cycle. I always try to think about the use case of NFTs, but as we go into this more digital world where—
Yes.
—I don’t know, dude. Even the way and speed that AI, VR, and AR are progressing, I could totally see a Ready Player One in our lifetime.
Yes. A hundred percent. It’s inevitable, a hundred percent.
Yeah. Then you’re gonna have, like, okay, well, how do you—
And then it’s the same—
—digital real estate.
It’s the same exact use case as a Picasso or a fucking Patek, except it’s infinitely, exponentially more exposed. Because people will be able to go into your—
Well, and it’s like the skins—
Yes.
It’s like the CS:GO skins. I still think there’s a world where people—
Yeah.
—are so obsessed with skins for Counter-Strike. Eventually, we’re all gonna have an online avatar. You’re gonna want your guy to be dope.
Correct.
And how do you—
How many daily active users do these social media apps have? Like Instagram—how many people log into Instagram and use it every day?
It’s gotta be like—
Billions, bro.
Tens of millions.
Yeah. I feel like—
It’s got to be more than tens of millions. It has to be, right?
2 billion a day.
Okay, so 2 billion a day.
Yeah.
Yeah.
So, an Oasis-style server, a GTA-esque world that 2 billion people log into and visit every day—what is a CryptoPunk worth in that world, right? How are people going to react when an alien CryptoPunk walks past them and they’re like, “What the fuck?” This guy was around in 2017 or spent tens of millions of dollars to wear that.
Yeah.
Yeah. I feel like with NFTs, it’s all about integration. On Instagram right now, there’s no way to really attach an NFT to an account, so everyone’s spending $100,000 on an OG name, or $50,000 on an OG name. That’s kind of how you can peacock or status-max with money. But if NFTs were more integrated into social media, then it would be just as easy as that, and they’d make a comeback.
As long as people are still buying supercars, watches, and fine art, yeah. To what you said earlier about crypto, I think it’s really important to highlight the relative strength CryptoPunks specifically have shown through NFT Armageddon. Every fucking NFT project is down 99.9%. The word “NFT” is so fucking cringe and smoked and cooked. The fact that these things are still trading—
The floor was like $60,000. That’s still expensive.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah, it is.
Speaking of GTA, what do you think about Take-Two? Have you looked at it? Take-Two’s the company whose stock—
Yeah, we love Take-Two.
The chart’s bearish. It’s pulling back, and I feel like this has to be the biggest video game ever. It’s going to be the highest-selling video game of all time. Is this not a free trade? It’s just a matter of where and when. When GTA launched in December 2013, this thing was, I don’t even know, at $20. It’s at $200 now. Do we not just long this thing blindly and assume—
Yeah, probably.
—five years? The game’s coming out, and then they come out with online and milk that shit forever.
Yep.
Yeah. We were talking about it earlier in the year, and it bounced pretty hard, went near an all-time high, and now it’s pulling back to its swing low. I think it’s a good spot. I think—
I think so too. Right where it is now, it’s kind of—
Yeah.
—right at that swing low. Maybe it dips below $185, but this just seems like a no-brainer. I’m 36, and I’m taking a day off to play Grand Theft Auto.
Absolutely.
On launch day.
Yeah, no, GTA is cracked, bro. What do you think about the Anthropic shit, man?
Over the last few months, they’ve been cash-flow positive. I think a lot of people are hyper-fixated on the debt, understandably. If you look at the business, you’re like, “Okay, it seems like they’re spending two or three bucks to make a dollar. How is that a good business?” But if you look at a shorter window, they’ve been cash-flow positive for the last few months. I do think it’s a good business, so I’m relatively bullish. Obviously, the IPO is maybe some sort of local top.
Mm-hmm.
We get a pullback in equities, and we probably trade up and then down, similar to how we did on SpaceX’s IPO. But long term, it’s hard not to be bullish on Anthropic. The only caveat I have is that I talked to a buddy of mine who’s pretty dialed in, and he says we’re approaching a point where you’ll be able to run a model that’s 95% as good as whatever the frontier model is, right from your phone.
From your phone?
Yeah, he’s like, “That is coming.” You’re going to be able to have your own local model that’s 90% to 95% as good as whatever the frontier model is, and run the entire thing from your cell phone.
Have any of you guys heard of or used Instinct?
Yeah.
No.
I’ve heard of it.
Really?
I don’t use it.
Wow.
I have heard of it. It’s like the—
Yeah, Frank’s really bullish on it. It’s just a—
It’s like an AI assistant, right?
Yeah, it’s an AI assistant in text, and I’ve heard really good things about it. You can text it something like, “I want you to get red balloons and flowers and leave them at this hotel room door, because my girlfriend’s staying there, with a note that says this,” and it’ll just do it from a text message.
Oh, for real?
Yeah, some wild shit like that.
Yeah, I might need that shit, bro.
Book me flights to this and that, and book dinners for every night that I’m in Dubai, and it’ll just do it.
Yeah, it’s Instinct.
What is it called?
Instinct.
Instinct.
It’s invite-only, and I’ve just heard insane things about it.
Instinct? Let’s get an invite, whoever’s out there watching.
I got it.
You got me?
Yeah.
Yeah?
Yeah.
Kat has it?
Kat got it, bro. Kat has it.
What does Kat not have, bro?
Tav, my manager, speaks very highly of it.
Kat has no show. That’s what Kat does now.
That’s what he does all day long. He’s my number one operator, booking shit and handling all that kind of stuff. This Instinct shit is cracked. Frank likes it as well. On that note, though, I have to leave. I’m going to leave you guys to it. I’ll stay live on all my platforms, but I’ve got to go. I have a hard cut at 3:30.
See you, my G.
It was a little bit… We got rear-ended at the beginning of this episode because the market was going crazy. But we’ll see you guys next Thursday. Chat, appreciate you guys. Mayne, insentos, Z—
Peace.
—I’ll leave you to it.
Love, guys. Thanks.
Z—
Z, you know Drew Tang from Twitter? He’s been DM’ing me because I reached out after I posted, “The whole timeline’s dooming, end-of-the-world stuff.” He’s a lot more into that world of predictive stuff, with a bit of occult conspiracy theory vibes. He literally just texted me, “Bro, I told you. Exchange is first, banks next.” I’m like, “Bro, come on, man. I’m trying to just enjoy my life right now. Don’t tell me my money in the bank’s going to be toast too.”
Fuck, bro. How do you even guard against that? If banks get hacked, what the fuck do you do? Buy bricks? Hold cash?
He’s like, “Have cash, have gold and silver,” physically. He’s like, “Have, you know, $10,000 in cash and maybe $10,000 or $20,000 in gold. If the world ends, that’s going to put you in the top 1%.” I find it interesting because, as you make more money, I think you start to think not just about legacy, but about how you’re going to protect your wealth—not just for yourself, but for your kids and your kids’ kids—and how you can insulate your family and next of kin from the worst things possible on the planet.
Mm.
As people get richer, it seems like they go deeper into that: longevity, bunkers for all the billionaires. How much can we really do if the banks go down? I don’t know about America, either. In Canada, there’s a government monopoly on banks. There are only a few banks, and they’re the most profitable businesses in the entire country. They make up most of our stock market. If you want to make a good investment in Canada, you invest in Canadian banks. They pay out dividends, they print, and they have a kind of government monopoly. In America, there’s a lot more freedom, and I do think some of these banks can go under when shit hits the fan. I don’t know how you protect yourself from that other than having physical assets and crypto.
I don't know, man. Damn. Maybe I’ll hit up Drew Tang and get the fucking regimen from him, bro.
If you wanna feel shitty, yeah, hit him up. He’ll tell you that we’re all gonna die, but he’ll tell you what to do.
Drew Tang. Drew Tang, what it do? Maybe we need to have him on and give him the fucking rundown.
He would be a good guest, bro.
He would be.
He would be a good guest because he’s deep into that stuff. He’s like, “Listen, maybe nothing happens, but if stuff does happen, you wanna be ready.”
I don’t know if you remember when Portugal had that power outage a couple of years back. I think in some places the power was out for as long as 72 hours. I had some friends who lived there at the time, and they’re like, “Night one, it was like a party. Everyone’s lighting candles, they’re drinking wine, they’re having power-out parties.” He’s like, “By day two, your fridge is off, your water’s not running, you have no heat, you have no AC.” He’s like, “By day two, shit was already starting to get looted,” because people are like, “Oh, fuck, there’s no power. I don’t have a generator. I don’t have any of this stuff.” By day three, it’s pandemonium.
So you wonder, maybe thinking the power grid goes down is crazy. But if we lost power in a major city for two full days, how does shit not hit the fan?
Bro, in New York? If we lost power in New York—
Imagine just in New York for 48 hours, with zero power—
No—
Is it not an instant riot?
It’s craziness everywhere, for sure. Without a doubt. Certainly. Maybe I need to hit up Drew Tang. But come on—
Bro, he’s gonna tell you to get out of New York. He’s gonna tell you to go into the country, to a farm with a solar panel and a well.
Yeah, man. We’ll go to the fucking bunker with some water and shit, bro. I remember last time we were on, I think one of the conversations we had was about getting the cul-de-sac and shit. Weren’t we saying that?
Yeah, bro.
One of the last times we were on here.
Yeah, bro. We need the compound.
Yeah. The crypto compound with everybody and all the right supplies and shit. No, that’s true, though. Crypto specifically is very much about taking care of yourself and owning your own money. Don’t rely on anybody else. That kind of extends into all the physical protection and safety stuff too. I think it’s an extension of that line of thinking, which is why you see a lot of Bitcoiners who are heavy into that kind of stuff too, with the libertarian ideals and everything. But go ahead.
Yeah. I hope this is just a nothing burger, like it’s midterm FUD, and we’re gonna have new shit to worry about and complain about. But the timing of some of this stuff happening is suspect.
Mm-hmm.
I think it’s just weird. I mean, I was saying this to somebody the other day: with the AI stuff, we’re undoubtedly in the period of the most uncertainty about what’s gonna happen.
Yeah.
Whether you think something bad or something good or something amazing or something terrible, whatever the range or spectrum of your thoughts are, you definitely have no fucking idea what’s gonna happen next. Over the next 12 to 18 months, you have no idea which direction it’s gonna go, what shit’s gonna break, or what breakthroughs we’re gonna see.
That’s kind of partially the reason I’m light on equity. I think people are just looking for reasons to de-risk because they just don’t know. You just have no idea. It’s definitely interesting. Markets do not like uncertainty.
Well, it’s gonna cure cancer.
Yeah.
But it also might kill us, you know? When I was talking to this guy I mentioned, he’s like, “Oh, I’m actually more of an AI optimist.” He’s like, “Do you know any person that doesn’t have problems?” I’m like, “Of course not.” He’s like, “So AI’s always gonna have something to solve.” I was like, “Oh, so you don’t think it’s gonna kill us?” And he’s like, “No, no, no. There’s still a nonzero percent chance it kills all of us, but I’m more optimistic.” I’m like, “Okay. Sick.” But again, I don’t know what to do, bro. I genuinely don’t know what to do.
I don’t either, bro. That’s what I’m saying.
We listen to Drew Tang, and then after that it’s like, what do we do?
I have enough money to buy a property in the woods and have a well on it, solar panels, whatever. But I don’t know, dude. It’s kind of like the zombie apocalypse argument, where it’s like, okay, if zombies are gonna take over the world and it’s an extinction event, we’re all gonna die eventually. You just might be able to survive longer than others.
Do you wanna be the motherfucker who gets the guns, loads up, and tries to survive on the run for as long as possible, Walking Dead style? Or do you just wanna say, “Okay, fuck it. I guess I’m a zombie now”?
Yeah. Yeah. I don’t fucking know, bro. That is fucking funny. Bro, should we—
Because you drive yourself crazy. You’ll be like, “Well, I can’t live in a major city. I can’t enjoy all of these things. I’m gonna get all my money out of the bank. I’m gonna keep it in my house.” I don’t know, bro.
Yeah.
Who wants to live that life?
Yeah, nobody, to be honest. Bro, should we look at the charts? Should we look at some charts?
Let’s do it.
Let’s see. Oh, no, I think I messed that up.
That doesn’t look good. First chart, not good.
It doesn’t, right? Bro—
One second.
How does this not go to 26?
That’s what I’m saying, bro. That’s what I’m saying.
Look on the weekly, and look at every time we’ve had a weekly structure break on the S&P 500 and on the Nasdaq. Every single time we get a weekly structure break, it’s a minimum of 10% to 20%. It’s predictable. This S&P top looks like the top before April’s dump. It’s identical—
This one, right?
Dude, the one before too. It’s just like—
Yeah, I know. I know.
And then look at that big-ass swing low.
I know, bro.
Once we broke through that, it’s like, get the fuck out. That’s exactly where we are right now on NQ. It’s the same setup, and that’s exactly where we are on the S&P as well.
Yeah, I know, bro. People are like, “Bro, how’d you flip so fast?” I’m like, “Bro, did you see what it looked like two weeks ago? Look, bro, two weeks ago this shit was a fucking perfect chart.”
I know, but these all-time-high breakouts—
It was a perfect chart two weeks ago.
The equities charts are the easiest to trade at all-time highs, because if it holds the breakout, it’s gonna giga-rip—
Yeah.
And if it’s a deviation, it’s gonna nuke.
Yeah, about to—
Any time it breaks out to an all-time high, you just long it. If it gets back below, it’s an instant close and flip short.
Cut everything. Yeah, and that’s the most difficult thing for people to do: go from bullish to bearish that quickly. I think that’s why the sell-offs are so aggressive. I know this because this is how crypto trades now too. Bitcoin didn’t use to trade like this.
No.
In 2017, that shit used to just fucking go.
Yeah.
It would pull back like 30%, bottom, re-bottom, all-time highs. Boom. Go.
And we would watch all-time-high breakouts and long them—
Bro—
Because it’s like, “Oh my God—”
Yeah, all the time.
“It’s an all-time high.”
All-time-high breakouts were a guaranteed smash, bro.
Yeah.
I remember in 2021, I was like, “Oh, okay. I’m getting cooked on this. How am I getting cooked on this? This used to be the fucking trade.” I remember I got hit so hard in April of 2021.
Yeah.
In 2017, bro, every new all-time high was just like, slam, slam, slam, slam. It was every single time. But when it started doing the consolidate-and-fake-breakout thing—
Dude, now an all-time high is almost just a guaranteed fade.
It’s a fade.
Like it’s just—
It’s a fade.
A deviation setup. And to your point, that’s exactly how equities trade, too.
Mm-hmm.
And right now, we’ve deviated, and we’re retesting the level that broke us up. If we lose these key levels on the Nasdaq and the S&P 500, I don’t see how we don’t get at least another 10% of downside. Generally, with 10%-plus of downside in equities, you don’t really want to be long crypto.
Yeah. Yeah, bro, I’m—
Yeah, that’s only 12%. That’s not a crazy, world-ending nuke.
It’s not a recession. It’s just a pullback. This is very normal.
Yes.
It’s very normal.
Yeah, and it could end up being a higher low, retesting the old highs at 26, 25, 26, and then going up again. But I don’t see how Bitcoin doesn’t pull back double what equities pull back. That’s kind of standard fare.
Yeah, that’s what I’m looking at too, bro. I think all of these are about to roll. That’s why I said these next 2 weeks are going to be tricky. They’re going to be tricky.
And it’s all spot selling on Bitcoin, too. If you’ve been tracking the spot price, every time we pull back, it’s spot selling. We’re trading $150 lower on spot right now.
Really? On Coinbase compared to perps?
Yeah. Coinbase is at $7,950, and perps are at $79,200.
Yeah, that’s not good. For the chat, what he’s saying is Coinbase is BTC/USD, and that’s purely spot trading, meaning you’re actually buying and selling your positions with cash. What I’m looking at is BTC/USDT, which is the most popular Binance perp. A lot of it is leveraged futures positions, so you can borrow capital to go short or long. When people are long or short, it can move the price slightly above or below the spot price.
When spot is trading beneath futures, that means futures are more aggressively long than spot, which is not typically a good sign. There are more people selling spot aggressively than people trying to long it. It’s not a great sign.
If you want to know if buying or selling is real, generally you want to see it led by spot. Whenever we’re coming out of a bottom, people will generally say, “Spot is leading this move.” That’s a good sign. It means people are actually buying Bitcoin, so maybe the move is more trustworthy and durable.
But right now it looks like spot is selling, which isn’t great. Again, I see the setup: inverted head and shoulders.
Yeah, it’s gonna be a—
It’s gonna look retardedly easy in hindsight.
Yeah. Yeah, I think—
What do you have at 65 there? What’s that level say? Weekly demand?
Weekly demand. Yeah.
Yeah.
I had this weekly spot marked from before, when it broke down. I was like, “Yo, this is where we need to get above. If we get above it, it’s gonna pop.” Sure enough, when we got above it, that’s when it popped pretty hard. Now it’s basically this weekly demand. I have this cluster of weekly candles before we broke out marked as weekly demand.
But they love these fake range breakouts, bro. Boom, breakout—nope, back inside, back to range lows. Boom, above these highs, and now it’s back inside again. It’s fighting $80K. $80K’s been a tough spot. I think a lot of people are like, “Yeah, this is just chop.”
Mm-hmm.
I can see why people would say this is really choppy. It’s not below this level like ETH is. ETH is already below this.
Yeah.
ETH is down here.
Yeah.
Bitcoin is—
ETH’s broken down.
Yeah, ETH is down here, but Bitcoin is still in this tricky area. What would be really funny is if it just did this for a long-ass time and then just went.
Yeah.
That would be hilarious if it just doesn’t break down. I’m expecting it to go fill this area here.
It just looks like that level’s begging to get tagged.
Yeah.
Then it’s just a matter of what the reaction is, because I don’t even think running $75K is a bad thing.
Oh, yeah, yeah.
I think it’s totally reasonable.
Yeah.
It’s just a question of the reaction. Do we hold below $75K? That’s a little worrisome. But if it’s similar to the last bottom, we should go below $75K and then get right back above.
The only way that happens is with a quick flush in equities. If equities start to roll a little bit and Bitcoin breaks down below $75K right away, then I think we might go dumpster diving. That’s when you could see a $60,000—
6-0.
—kind of zone. Sub-$70K. I think that would scare a lot of people, even though $60K is still higher.
Yeah, $60K is still higher, though. We were at like $58K.
Yeah, and that’s a 25% to 30% pullback. That’s a 30% pullback from the high.
Yeah, which isn’t crazy. It’s very normal.
Yeah.
This is a pretty crucial spot right now. We have Monday’s range here. This was the weekly open on Sunday. It traded above twice and spiked this level a few times. It was really tricky; you were getting chopped around pretty hard. It spiked these highs a few different times, and now it’s trading below.
Another setup where I’d be wrong on my bearish take is if it got back above this again after the breakdown. I think I’d probably flip long again.
Yeah, my level’s 81,150. It’s basically the mid-range of the weekly range, right where you are, a little higher.
Yeah.
Above there, it looks good.
Yeah. If this is the range and it’s going to expand to the downside, it really shouldn’t trade back above this.
It should close down here.
It should close down here. The daily close is in an hour and 20 minutes, and the 4-hour candle closes in an hour and 20 minutes, too. If it closes beneath this range, which is what I’m expecting, it should sell off. But if it somehow gets back above here really aggressively, I’d be like, “Okay, maybe I’m wrong for now.” Then we’ll see.
I just think equities are going to pull it down. I really do. It’s been strong because there hasn’t been that much selling in equities, but I think if we get that real pullback, that’s when it’s going to move. ETH is basically in the same spot.
ETH looks worse. SOL is kind of right at the low.
Yeah. ETH is in this $1,800 to $1,700 area. SOL is right here, so technically it’s not as bad as ETH. But what scares me about SOL is how long it’s been in this area.
I really wanted to see it stay above $100 to $120, because it spent so much time in this range. I don’t want to see it trade back in here again, because this was a massive consolidation. I really wanted it to get back above this support level on SOL.
We’ll see, but it’s really all pretty much the same chart on the majors. You have this range, a break above the range, and then, okay, fuck, it’s coming back down into the range. Probably test range lows. HYPE has been super strong. Zcash, yeah, I think they’re all going to get pulled down, bro.
I know. Anytime we get a major correction, the first thing I do is go across all the charts I like and ask, “Where’s weekly demand? Where’s the weekly retest?”
Yeah.
That’s kind of where you want to set your stink bids, or at least alerts. If we get some sort of correction and the market starts to nuke—
Mm-hmm.
—when it’s nuking, it’s very hard to act because you’re like, “Oh, where’s support? When’s it gonna drop?” But if you do this before the nuke and actually—
Yeah.
—say, “Okay, here are levels where I should be interested, and here’s why,” it’ll help you take action once the move occurs.
Yeah, that is true, especially if you just have cash you’re bidding with. You’re not trying to knife-catch on leverage; you’re just buying spot. That’s a good strategy, because people don’t realize how hard it is when you see red candle after red candle after red candle and you’re watching it in real time.
Dude, if you see Zcash at $900 in the next week or couple of weeks, it’s gonna look horrific.
Yeah, it is.
But if you look at it right now, you say, “Oh, man. That would be the giga blind bid.” The only way you’re going to have that confidence is by doing the analysis beforehand and literally writing a note. I do it on my chart. I set an alert, and it’s like, “Oh, this is where you wanted to buy a couple of weeks ago. Don’t freak out if we come here.”
Yeah, I do that too. I have alerts that say, “Bro, buy. Smash buy.” And when I see them, I’m like, “Ah, I don’t know. I don’t know.” Yeah, Zcash—I really like the $750 level. That would be a really deep pullback. It would require a lot of work on equities, but the reason I like $750 is that it was the high from way, way back. It’s a previous all-time high.
Yeah, it’s a great level.
And this high was last in 2025. If it comes here, I think that would be a smash for me.
What do you think about oil, dude?
The issue with it being so close to all-time highs is that it doesn’t seem like they have a solution.
No.
It doesn’t seem like they really know how to solve this problem. People are like, “Oh, we’re going to go to war with them.” I’ve seen some people say that even if we did, it wouldn’t quickly fix this issue.
Yeah, no. I’ve seen people say, “Oh, the war ends, and oil’s going to nuke back to $70.” I don’t know about that. But something I’ve seen a lot of people talk about, as a non-American and an outsider, is the perception in America and other countries that this was a sign of weakness for America, because they’re low-key not winning the war. I don’t know if there’s a way to win the war anyway. What do you do?
Yeah.
Iran, I think, has been more resilient than maybe people thought. Some people are saying, “Oh, this is actually a bad look for America, and they should just get out and say, ‘Okay, you know what? It’s done.’” I think this is one of the biggest blunders of Trump’s presidency, because he basically ran on no wars and then got into a war. I feel the same way, man. I don’t see how this chart just corrects itself and goes back down.
Yeah. I’ve seen people talk about the futures curve. It’s inflecting up now, too, which is rare. People are kind of expecting next year to be a tricky situation, which obviously isn’t good for inflation. That’s obviously not good for the Fed being able to cut rates, which isn’t good for stimulating the economy. The oil situation isn’t good. I wish I were a fucking geopolitical expert who could give an in-depth take on what’s going on. But it’s clear that if they could’ve ended it by now, they would’ve easily ended it by now, and they haven’t.
Well, exactly. There’s obviously a reason they’re still doing this. They want it to look like a win, so they have to stay in longer until they get what they want, quote-unquote.
Yeah.
Or they just can’t pull out that easily, which is scary. Now Elon has retweeted a tweet about the Binance hack. He said, “Every day is a zero-day.” If insentos were still on, I imagine there’d be a zero-day token. No? This is a relatively new tweet. It’s only 14 minutes old.
Dude.
Look what he just tweeted. Yeah, it’s still happening. They’re still hacking.
They’re still hacking?
Yeah, just look at this. For real.
What the fuck is this guy doing? He’s buying PEPE?
No, he’s draining it.
Selling PEPE?
No, he’s stealing PEPE from Binance.
Oh, he’s stealing PEPE from Binance.
It’s still going. How have they not stopped this yet?
How is it—what is this?
He’s swapping for PEPE. Yeah, you’re right. Wait—
I don’t know. Somebody said this hacker’s a more respectful seller than most traders. He’s selling just 0.1% of his PEPE stack per clip. That’s pretty funny.
Insane. He’s not even drilling.
Yeah, he’s respectfully being like, “Yo, bros, I got this. Sell—I’m warning you.”
Now, do we think this is—
I don’t know what’s happening. This is messy.
AI-related?
It has to be, bro. I mean, whatever they used to figure it out is probably somewhat connected to AI. It doesn’t have to be, but I’m sure it is. What’s the trade, bro? I’m already short ETH and BTC.
I think I’m just gonna hold my short, bro.
Yeah, I think so too. I’m just gonna chill because things have moved so much that I have decent entries now. They’re pretty safe. Bro, I gave people the top tick on ETH live, even before this shit happened.
Last week.
I don’t know, on those 2 videos, yeah.
Yeah.
It’s basically a top-tick entry for the short, if you took it. But, oh, man. Okay, let’s see what other people are talking about on the fucking timeline—the fucking Binance shit.
Dude, the timeline is doomer, man.
It’s so doomer. Extremely doomer. The Binance exploiter is selling UNI for ETH.
Dude, Patrick Stewart died? Come on.
Patrick Stewart died?
Yeah, he’s Spock. Like, Professor Xavier from X-Men, the old bald guy. You know who he is. Binance says user funds remain safe.
Dang, they said it’s the biggest one in crypto history. HyperDash data. Where’s HyperDash? Huh? What are you asking me to do right now? Do I have the phone, or do you—
No, I gave it to you.
Oh, okay. Let’s look. We’re talking about BTC right now. Is this the next 15 minutes, or this 15-minute candle? Is this candle gonna close green or red?
The next 15 minutes. The current 15-minute candle closes in 8 minutes.
And I’m asking, is it gonna close green or red?
I think green.
What’s this target? Oh, but this isn’t even the same. I wonder what price they’re tracking. Eight minutes? Okay, we’re picking green.
A little 2x, not bad.
Yeah, interesting.
Just saying, the floor’s immediately gonna fall out now that we bet on it.
I know, right? We’re hitting, what, 33%? It’s like, yeah, nuke it.
I’ve been looking at these things and trying to think, “Okay, what’s the best use case for the up-down markets?” Obviously, there’s a level of gambling to it, but on the 15-minute chart, you can try to determine whether that candle is gonna close up or down based on the chart. If I look at the 15-minute, we took out the last 15-minute candle’s low, right?
Mm-hmm.
If you’re trying to think of it as a trade, that’s kind of how I would use it. If you look at the 5-minute, it kind of closes as a little doji. There’s reason to believe this could be where the 15-minute chart turns around. I do think you can try to use TA to predict these with some level of accuracy. And then where it gets fun is, I don’t know, bro, you only need 17 doubles in a row to make a bunch of money.
That is true. What I’ve been doing when I trade on low timeframes is looking at the average dislocation that can happen with a lot of these charts. When you have a 5-minute candle that’s down multiple percent, you’re usually gonna get somewhat of a bounce because there are so many people. This was a 2% or 3% move in 15 minutes, which is a lot, and people are gonna take profit into these candles because a lot of people are on leverage. People are selling, and people are buying these forced sells. When you dislocate a lot from the current price, it takes a while for some of the book to fill at the new levels.
Yeah, the market’s gotta digest it.
So even if you’re on the bearish continuation, typically on super-low timeframes, there’ll be some consolidation before you see continuation.
Right now, I think this was Monday’s low. This was the previous day’s low. Or was it this one? I think it was this one, actually. This is an old marker. I think this daily candle is cooked. I think it’s gonna close bearish, and then it’s gonna close beneath the previous day’s low.
You have this period right now where it’s consolidating. So it’s like, if you’re not in a short or you haven’t exited yet, it’s, “Okay, I want to enter somewhere around the top of whatever this range is, or I want to get out when this thing breaks down and continues to the downside.” I think typically this is gonna close… The daily candle’s gonna close in about an hour.
If you think the daily continuation’s gonna happen tomorrow, when you have this daily open, it’s like, “Okay, I’m trying to get out above this daily open,” and I don’t think it’s gonna close on a high-timeframe candle back into Monday’s low. If you get something like this, that’s when I’m trying to get out, or that’s when you want to trade one of these markets, thinking it’s gonna continue down.
What’s really interesting is you can do the same type of analysis you just did on any candle. A lot of people only think of it as a daily open strategy. The whole reason Monday’s range works really well is you’re making a trade prediction for the weekly candle, right?
Yep.
Okay, if we see the low put in on Tuesday or Wednesday and we reclaim Monday’s low, that stands to reason that we might now have continuation for the rest of the week. You can do this with a four-hour candle. People always ask me, “Why is the yearly open important?” It’s for the reasons you just stated, but stretched out over a year, as opposed to just looking at the most recent daily candle.
If we’re early in the year and we take out the low of the prior year and then reclaim the yearly open, you might have just seen the low for the entire year get put in, and you can now use that to frame all of your trades going forward. So people who are always trying to say, “Okay, I want to trade more, I want to scalp,” whatever, what he just explained, you can do it for every single candle.
Yeah.
It’s its own range.
Yeah. I thought about this earlier, actually, in the video. These candles—it’s a bullish green candle—you should know generally what this looks like on lower timeframes.
Yes.
Because if you know what it looks like on lower timeframes, you can position as this is happening. I was saying, with every single candle, there are 3 things that can happen. It’s either an inside-day candle. That means it’s trading in the exact same range as the previous timeframe’s candle.
For this daily, it was this small candle right here. It could’ve either stayed inside this range and had a wick to either side, or it can close above, or it can close below. Those 3 different scenarios should inform how your bias affects the way you’re looking to trade within this candle.
Like I said earlier, it typically looks like this: if it has this wick at the bottom, it opens here. It trades beneath the open at some point, but you know it doesn’t close lower, obviously. At some point it goes back up, and then before the end of the candle it’s higher, and then it closes lower. So this is your wick, this is your wick, and this is your body of the candle, right? This is your timeframe if you go to lower timeframes.
So this is bullish. A bearish one would be the opposite. A doji to both sides is obviously it starts here, goes up, goes down, and then it stays here. So it should inform how you’re looking to take all of your trades.
So I learned that from ICT, exactly, and he calls it the Power of Three. It’s open-high-low-close, or open-low-high-close.
Mm.
It’s basically giving you that map of every single candle, because you can break down every candle exactly like that. If you think you know what’s gonna happen—“Okay, I think we’re gonna expand”—then you should, in theory, be able to go down to the low timeframe, mark out the actual open-high-low-close, and time your entry according to how you think that candle’s about to play out.
My entire Monday’s range strategy is effectively looking to long that dip below the open on the weekly candle, and then the reclaim, and expect that we’re gonna have a bullish and green week back towards Monday’s high. That’s all you’re really doing there. That’s kind of the logic behind it.
Yeah. Simply, for people who are looking for… You’re either long or you’re short. And if you’re long, you’re either buying support or you’re buying a breakout. That’s very simply what you’re doing on all timeframes, whether it’s daily, hourly, or 15-minute.
You’re either looking to buy support with a stop beneath some old level, or you’re looking to buy a breakout with a stop below whatever previous range. Those are really your 2 general ways of getting entries. For those entries, you’re looking at either high-timeframe levels or lower-timeframe price action. If you can get both of those things to align, that’s typically when you have the best setups.
If you have a monthly support level that you know is super strong and has only been tested once or hasn’t been tested yet, then you drill down to the lower timeframes and look for something like this. That’s how you get your entries. For shorts, it’s the same type of situation: you’re looking to sell resistance with a stop above, or you’re looking to get in on a breakdown to the downside with a stop above whatever previous range you’re in. That’s generally how you should be thinking about your entries and your trades, I think.
I think we just won our Polymarket bet.
Did we?
I think so.
Let’s see. Oh, it closed green. It did close green.
Just barely.
It is barely.
By the skin of its teeth, but we nailed it. Now we look real smart.
Genius. Look at this.
But no, I think that’s a very good lesson for people: you want to think of price as fractal. Sometimes you hear people talk about “fractal, fractal, fractal,” but when you understand that these patterns he just showed you are the same across all timeframes, the magic, at least for me, comes when you combine 2 timeframes together. I have a 2-timeframe rule for all trades that I take. I don’t take any trade off a singular timeframe. It’s always 2.
Yeah.
The higher timeframe, whatever it is—it could be the monthly and weekly, or it could be the four-hour if you’re a lower-timeframe trader—that’s where you’re looking for your levels, your demand, or whatever, your area where you think price is gonna get a reaction.
Once price gets to that zone, that’s when you scale down to the low timeframe, and you look for that fractal to play based on what you think’s gonna happen. If we’re at support, I can envision a few different bullish fractals for what I think is gonna happen on the low timeframe, which ultimately might just be one singular daily green candle. But when you’re on the hourly chart, it’s gonna play out relatively the same way at support or resistance every time.
When you start to get good at that pattern recognition, it helps you turn what a lot of people, I think, believe is noise on the low timeframe into, “Actually, this is exactly how I get into my setup. This is why I know where the entry is. This is why I know where the stop loss is.” It makes your trading a lot easier, because you know what you’re looking for, where, and how to define your risk. I think most people get lost by only looking at one single timeframe and trying to determine what they’re looking at.
Yeah, the 2-timeframe rule is good. I didn’t even realize that—I definitely do the exact same thing. It’s really good to have in your tool shed. But I think what people also don’t realize is you can have the advantage of having time on your side when you get more aggressive with the lower timeframes.
If you’re on some lower timeframe and you’re looking for an entry, typically it shouldn’t spend that much time in whatever area you’re at, looking for an entry, depending on if it’s daily or whatever. So you have the ability to get out even time-based if you’re wrong pretty quickly. That’s what I’ve been doing.
I mean, even Bitcoin right now, we’re both kind of like, “Okay, if this thing’s getting nuked, I want it to nuke now.”
Yeah.
The longer it hangs around here at my entry or close to my entry, the less I like it.
Right. Yeah.
But I gotta get out of here. I don’t know if you’re staying on, but dude, always a pleasure.
Yeah, man, appreciate you. I gotta get out of here too, bro. I might post another video later.
Maybe I’ll hop on to stream from my other computer.
You should. Those are good, man.
Yeah.
Those are good. People need to see the method behind the madness sometimes.
Yeah. Bro, I was at the Coinbase conference in Singapore, and one of the hosts was like, “Bro, I didn’t know you could actually trade. I didn’t know you actually knew what you were talking about.”
Oh, fuck.
They were asking me questions, like explaining the positions. I thought it was hilarious.
They don’t know about Coin-Zim, bro. They don’t know.
They don’t. They don’t.
They don’t know, man.
Oh, it’s okay, buddy.
Okay. All right, G. Good seeing you, man.
All right, brother. Later.
Talk later. Bye.
Peace. Yo, what’s good, chat? It’s not a great day. Not a great day. Thank you. How was that? It was good? That was good?
The Binance exploiter is selling LINK, UNI, PEPE, and… Bro, I think this shit is about to nuke. I think everything is about to nuke. The good thing is we’ll get to scoop stuff at low prices. This is the good thing.
Mayne’s always the best. “What’s good, twin? We live to see another day, and that was astronomical.” Thank you. W Mayne. It’s a great day for bears. This is true. I hope some of you guys de-risked some shit, at least.
Crypto is hard, bro. You have to flip biases so quickly, and if you don’t, you get caught off guard. Okay, so Cairo. Let’s see what Cairo just talked about. This is good. Dang. Five billion left Binance hot wallets in under an hour today across Ethereum, Bitcoin, and Tron.
“How it started: 4:20 p.m. ET. An outside wallet attached EIP-7702 code to a Binance Ethereum hot wallet. Three minutes later, it swept 63 tokens out in one transaction, including $1.6 billion USDT and 67K ETH. A second Binance hot wallet sent 28K ETH to the same address, signed with its own key, in the same few minutes. 80,270 BTC and $613 million USDT on Tron also moved to new wallets.”
“Where it stands: Tether and Circle have frozen about $2 billion. Nothing has gone to Tornado Cash. About $718 million in ETH and about $500 million in USDT are still free to move, and 17,270 BTC sits untouched.”
Wow, $5 billion. Yeah, 2% of PEPE. He has 2% of PEPE? Yeah, 49. And he’s selling. That’s unfortunate.
Update, 5:52 p.m.: $5.78 billion has now left Binance. Update, 6:40. Bro, this is crazy. How? How? Damn. Crazy day.
It says, “Yes, Binance has the funds to recover this loss, but if they can get hacked, everyone can get hacked.” That is true. “It’s tiresome and really not a good image for this industry.” Oh, man. Yeah, it should be super bullish for Hyperliquid, though. Shout-out Raph. Raph’s my number-one supporter. Raph holding it down.
Yeah, I don’t think this shit is done yet. Even without the hack, I don’t think this shit is done yet. I think it was going to happen regardless, to be honest. Oh, man. PEPE hit an all-time high, too. Y’all see me looking under the light? Kat, look at this. Look at this tweet.
What?
What the fuck, bro? That’s crazy. Oh, man. Am I still shorting? Yeah, I’m short Bitcoin and ETH. I’m also short some stocks.
I haven’t sold all my coins yet, which is unfortunate because I sold some, but I didn’t sell everything. So I’m still losing money right now, unfortunately. Yeah, I think I might sell some shit after this, to be honest. Am I short Anthem? No, I’m not short Anthem. No, I’m not hacked. I haven’t sold any Anthem.
Yeah, I think the timing should be good, though. What I’m thinking right now is the sell-off for majors is going to mean a sell-off for alts, too. Then you’ll have a situation where on-chain isn’t obviously as bullish as it was before. If you can focus a lot of attention on one thing all at the same time, you can get a concentrated bid on things.
Yeah, no problem, Merc. Somebody said, “As far as I understand, the entire Binance infrastructure is fucked now. Deposit wallets keep sending funds to the hacked hot wallet, which is getting drained by the hacker.” What? What? What?
The Binance hacker said he deposited the USDT and borrowed ETH against it. I wonder if there are people with really good models that they aren’t sharing with people. You ever think about that, Kat?
Say it again?
I wonder if there are models out there, outside of the Claude and OpenAI ones, or some version of those out in the wild, that people have figured out a way to make better and are just using them.
Internal models?
Yeah, shadow labs. Because think about how much that would be worth if you could figure it out and not be—
It’s also—
—watched by everybody.
It would probably be government spending. You just tied $100 billion into the government.
Yeah, that’s CIA, FBI, all that shit is worth—
NSA budget. NSA budget.
Yeah, NSA budget, bro.
They probably cloned it. We just don’t know.
Maybe I am a clone, bro. Maybe I’m the clone. Sisyphus says, “Binance can probably cover the amount of lost funds, so I wouldn’t go crazy over solvency.” Yeah. I mean, unless they lose everything.
“I believe this is a canary for what will happen to crypto more broadly. Anything exploitable will be exploited with LLMs this advanced being universally available.” This is my issue with everything right now. LLMs getting this good only happens one time, and this period where we don’t know what they can hack or what’s going to get hacked only happens once. That’s the max uncertainty, I think.
And it’s not just crypto, it’s everything. Crypto is just riskier because you can take the funds directly.
Holy shit. PEPE funding on Hyperliquid is annualized at -408%.
Yeah. I’m sure people are short as fuck PEPE. I mean, he has 2% of the supply?
2%, 40 million. Well, it was 40 million.
Bro, it’s not even down that much. What? It’s not even down that much. But it doesn’t even feel like people are panicking, to be honest. It feels like people are really just chilling. It’s only down 10%.
Yeah.
This is interesting. I don’t think tomorrow’s going to be good.
Selling the Bitcoin won’t be easy. There’s nowhere to offload that much legally. You’re not going to offload 30 stack of it.
He’s not washing it?
I don’t know where you’d be able to pay to wash that much. America’s different, but…
All the boomers who— Can you move the chat a little bit to the left?
Yeah, I’m working on it.
Oh, awesome. Freezing $2.6 billion that fast is pretty sick, though.
I moved it so it’s easier for you to see. Yeah, you got it. Good job. Thank you.
Coinbase Earn was cool. I asked Brian some questions. What did I ask him? I asked him about Deribit. They bought Deribit, which is the biggest options protocol, or options exchange, in crypto. They’re using it to integrate perps and options, and that’s going to be their Coinbase Pro product. They’re rolling it out to U.S. users soon, which is pretty cool.
I asked him about the regulatory work they do. They’re investing in consumer marketing and focusing on their retail customers. They said they’re focusing on that more now, but they were proud of the work they did after FTX and while FTX was happening, because SBF gave D.C. a really bad taste in its mouth around crypto. They had to do a lot of work to make sure crypto didn’t get regulated out of existence. He’s proud of that, but they’re also focusing on consumers and regulatory work.
Then I asked him how they differentiate as a verticalized exchange or company, because they have spot trading, predictions, perps, options, Coinbase Custody, and institutional stuff. I asked how they have an advantage over other companies trying to do the same. Essentially, he said a lot of the older banks are too antiquated, and they don’t move fast with the agentic trading or the on-chain stuff they’re doing with Base.
He also said they’re at the forefront of moving fast, tech-wise, as a fintech, and they have advantages other companies don’t have. He said they’re trying to do everything well, but they have a unique product offering. I think those are the 3 questions I asked him.
But yeah, it’s holding up pretty well, to be honest. This is a crazy day, bro. What is happening? Damn. What’s my FOMO account? I don’t have a FOMO account. Can I do a Discord stream soon? Yeah, I can do that. Does he use phone motor trade? Thoughts on NEAR?
10/10 was nuts. Thoughts on NEAR? I can talk about NEAR. NEAR looks like it’s breaking down from this consolidation. It had a pretty good breakout. I think we first went long NEAR around 1.7. It was around here. It was a decent little pop. It came back, retested the same spot, and had another pop. That’s been one of the best-performing alts, to be honest.
I think the narrative around NEAR is good. The intent stuff is definitely real and solid. The AI agent narrative is also good, and the privacy programmability narrative is pretty good too. But I’m in the camp that majors are going to sell off, and if majors are going to sell off, I think alts are also going to sell off. You can kind of see this breakdown happening now.
This is a good place to get out if you were long into here, because this is your first real breakdown candle from this range, and it’s been trading in this range for a while. So it’s a decent place to de-risk after, like, 40 days. I think it’s probably going to come back somewhere into here, probably around 3, like 2.5. Something like this, probably.
Shit’s fucking gross, bro. Why are people saying, “I wish it would’ve dipped further”? Bro, it’s only been an hour. This shit’s not done. I would love to be bullish right now. It would be so sick if I thought this was a great spot to just slam shit. That would be a great spot. Bro, like, 6 billion? What is happening? 6B is crazy.
Nah, I haven’t read the Discord recently. Did you guys watch the two videos I posted? I’m not ignoring any questions, bro. Damn. Did y’all watch the two videos I posted? Who’s been posting tweets on my account? Production’s posting tweets on my account. We have the clipping engine on lock.
“Zee, tweet out a cute animal and give the trenches a runner.” Bro, I don’t think y’all want me to do that right now. “You love both of the videos. Keep doing them.” Y’all keep doing them, and I’ll keep doing them. What happened to the ants on Twitter? The ants on Twitter I got from this dude, and he somehow got it back. I’ve been trying to get it back from him again, but I don’t have access to it right now.
How am I doing? I’m doing all right, you know. I’m doing okay. Crazy, right? What is my regular day? Lately, I’ve been spending a lot of time looking at the market, but a regular day… Damn, Micron under 900. My days are pretty chill. How much did I lose today? Just know it’s not a small amount. I’m up on my shorts, though, so, yeah. It’s fine. Things could be worse. I have more cash than I did a week or so ago, so it’s fine.
I hope you guys watch those videos. I actually laid out pretty clearly what’s going to happen this week in both of them—the top and this going on. Pretty accurately, I will say. I hope they helped some people. It’s unfortunate that this is the price action we currently have, but it is what it is, man. It is what it is. I’m fucking sleepy, bro.
This is true: Basically, good companies that beat earnings but have mixed guidance are down way more than coins that were hacked and are being directly sold on the open market in the largest hack in history. I’m not sure if it’s just complacency. That’s what I’m thinking it is, and I think the real selling just hasn’t really happened yet. Or maybe people just genuinely don’t have that many coins to sell. Maybe people just aren’t holding PEPE, and the people who are holding it just don’t really care. I’m not sure. It’s crazy to me that this isn’t down a lot more. It’s only down like 10%, and it’s bouncing pretty well, to be honest.
That’s pretty crazy. Or we’re just in the malaise period where you see low volatility. I hate that shit, bro. I hate that shit. Volatility I can trade. Up or down, I don’t really care. If it’s trending up or breaking down, as long as it’s moving, I can trade it. But when it starts doing the shit that’s like… When it starts doing shit like this for weeks and weeks and months, nah, bro, I can’t do anything with this. How am I going to make money off this? I can’t make money off this. These are daily candles, bro. 1% daily candles for months? No. I don’t want that. The volatility I can do. I can do volatility. So this is definitely not the worst, for sure.
Oh, damn, daily close soon. We’re going to get the daily close soon. There are too many tweets like this. They’ve been doing this all week, bro. “Bitcoin’s at 80K and everything’s getting smashed. Bitcoin’s at 80K, everything’s terrible. Bitcoin’s at 80K. Bitcoin down 3% after the biggest hack in history.” Bro, come on, this market is ready for the bull. Bro, it’s been an hour. It’s only been an hour, and this shit is below the— Okay. All right, man.
No, I’m not. Only two have been frozen, which is two or three, yeah. It’s concerning because this is the biggest exchange. The biggest exchange can get hacked. What can’t get hacked? Not great, bro. Even Elon’s tweeting about it. What the hell?
How are we feeling, chat? Am I going to play the new WoW expansion? Actually, I think so. I think I am. Y’all going to play it? Yeah? I think I am, bro. I used to love WoW back in the day. My main was an ice mage, a troll ice mage. I had an undead rogue, a tauren shaman, an undead warlock, and a paladin. I had a druid, too. My WoW characters were tough, I’m not gonna lie. I played hella World of Warcraft. Hella World of Warcraft.
“Paper trade positioning is alpha.” Yo, it is. That’s a good leak. You know some shit, bro. It’s actually a lot of alpha. A lot. Did they really predict Black October? Production will DM you after the show. Yeah. What is this day, bro? What’s happening?
Big spot on NQ. Huge spot on NQ. What’s today, Friday? Friday’s going to be big. All right, bros—and females, and lads and lasses—I think I’m gonna get out of here. Dario JPEG, what’s your @? I’ll follow you back, bro. I don’t see your name. “Sunsets blood.” You said what? Sunsets and what? “Sunsets red blood.” Red blood. Literally red blood. There we go. Dario187x. Oh, I got you. You ready? Yeah. Peace out one more time. Peace out. Love you. Later.