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Hard Fork · · 70 分钟

Google 搜索要凉了?+ 美国要建立加密货币储备?+ 你正在“凭感觉编程”什么

Kevin RooseCasey NewtonDavid Yaffe-Bellany

播客
TL;DR
  • Google 的 AI Mode 是对其搜索业务的一次防御性重塑,而这项业务上季度创造了540亿美元收入。 它与更广泛上线的 AI Overviews 及 Gemini 2.0 升级同步推出;这项实验用定制答案取代10条蓝色链接,将来源 relegated 为横向轮播和小链条图标。Google 正在“百年一遇的重塑机会”与蚕食核心搜索业务的风险之间寻找平衡。

  • 竞争威胁的数值规模仍然很小,但默认设置可能让它大幅加速。 Google 的市场份额在2024年末跌破90%,这是2015年以来首次;主持人引用的分析师预计 ChatGPT 到年底将占搜索市场1%,而 Bing 约为4%。Casey 的判断是:如果 AI Mode 在“2年、3年、5年后”成为 Google 的首页入口,“那就是胜负已定”。

  • 即使最悲观的估计不成立,AI 答案也可能从网络出版商手中抽走大量流量和经济价值。 Tolbit 测得,来自 AI 搜索界面的引荐流量减少91%,来自纯聊天机器人的引荐流量减少96%,但 Casey 质疑其基于爬虫的方法论。Kevin 的下行情景很直接:即便流量减少幅度只有45%,对大量媒体而言也会是“一场灾难性事件”。

  • 当答案引擎吸收供应商的产品后,Chegg 提供了一个早期样本。 这家公司每月收费约15美元,提供超过1亿个作业答案,2021年估值达到120亿美元;Google 开始直接回答此类问题后,其股票“基本变成了仙股”,并开始探索战略替代方案。Casey 称 Chegg 是一个不讨喜、但重要的“风向标”。

  • Trump 的行政命令最终建立的是一个比此前言论所暗示范围更窄的 Bitcoin 储备。 命令保留政府此前没收的 Bitcoin,并授权通过“预算中性策略”继续收购,同时将被没收的非 Bitcoin 资产放入不会继续购买代币的独立库存。因此,命令排除了明确购买此前点名的非 Bitcoin 代币,并称收购 Bitcoin 不会增加纳税人负担。

  • 纳入 XRP、Solana 和 Cardano 的提议,同时暴露出利益冲突疑虑和加密行业内部的深刻分歧。 与 Trump 相关的利益、Ripple 掌门人 Brad Garlinghouse 的政治活动,以及 Trump 家族持有的 World Liberty Financial,都让 Casey 认为这看起来像“典型的自我交易”。即便是 Coinbase 的 Brian Armstrong、Tyler Winklevoss 和加密分析师 Nick Carter,也反对广泛纳入;Carter 警告,不要把 Bitcoin 变成“政府的玩物”。

  • 更低调、也更具投资意义的转变,可能是加密货币融入传统金融,而不是储备本身。 两党支持的稳定币框架、将权限从 SEC 转移给更不激进的 CFTC 的努力,以及 XRP 或 Solana ETF 的可能推出,都将为资金从券商账户和退休账户流入加密市场创造更多渠道。更广泛的结构性警告是:“墙正在倒塌”,下一次崩盘可能影响那些从未主动选择交易代币的人。

  • 凭感觉编程已经在降低窄领域、特定场景软件的开发成本,但并没有消除调试或集成风险。 听众做出了麻醉学模拟器、无障碍导向的速读工具、风味搭配工具和可复用的照片处理脚本;最强的项目都把领域知识与精确规格结合起来。Kevin 那个过于活跃的维护提醒系统点明了限制:用户可以做出“差不多能用”的东西,却完全不知道该如何修复它。

摘要 · 为研究而整理的核心内容

1. AI Mode 把 Google 的核心业务置于自身颠覆之中

  • Google 宣布推出 AI Mode,同时扩大 AI Overviews 的分发范围,并将底层模型升级至 Gemini 2.0。这项早期实验最初同时要求订阅 Google One AI Premium,并通过 Google Labs 主动报名;两位主持人都还没有获得访问权限。

  • 不同于独立的 Gemini 应用,AI Mode 仍然属于 Search,并在显著位置加入横向网站链接轮播。但它的主要输出已经是一篇聊天机器人风格的文章,Google 用解释似曾相识感的回答展示了这一点,而不是传统的10条蓝色链接列表。

  • 这些引用可能更像装饰,未必能带来流量。Casey 注意到,每段文字后面的小链条图标会被熟练用户识别为超链接,但很多人可能只会把它看成“一个精致的句号”;这个界面“并没有特别诱导人们点击”。

  • Casey 的框架是:Google 一方面要跟上 ChatGPT 和 Perplexity,另一方面又要保护最近一个季度创造540亿美元收入的核心业务。不过,他仍认为 AI Mode 说明 Google 已经意识到,这是一个“百年一遇的重塑搜索体验的机会”。

2. 搜索习惯正在先于市场份额发生变化

  • Google 仍处理约90%的搜索,但 Casey 引用的分析发现,其份额在2024年最后3个月跌破这一水平,这是2015年以来首次。一些分析师预计 ChatGPT 到年底将达到1%;尽管 Bing 存在已久,其份额也只有约4%。

  • Kevin 现在主要把 Google 用于查询火车时刻、餐厅菜单和已知网页等导航类问题。产品推荐、电器维修及类似建议越来越多交给 ChatGPT 或 Claude;他估计,聊天机器人已经处理了自己过去用 Google 搜索的问题中至少一半。

  • Casey 仍偏好用 Google 或 Google Maps 查找附近的餐厅、医生和其他本地商家,但遇到操作指南和知识问答时会使用聊天机器人——即使 Google 能给出正确答案也是如此,因为一句话胜过一张包含6个广告和一堆无关组件的“冗长网页”。

  • Casey 引用了 The Verge 的一项调查:42%的受访者认为搜索引擎正在变得不那么有用。他认为,这一判断并非只由 AI 造成,而是多种因素共同作用的结果,包括广告、质量恶化的网站、“AI 垃圾内容”,以及直接答案更适合解决修水龙头这类问题。

3. 决定搜索是否真的要凉的,是默认设置而非早期用户

  • Kevin 的反驳值得保留:关于 AI 搜索摧毁出版商流量的警告已经流传一年多,但预期中的崩溃并没有按预想规模出现。人们改变习惯的速度很慢;AOL、Yahoo 和 Hotmail 在更新的替代产品出现很久后,仍然保有用户。

  • Casey 同意,隐蔽且付费的实验主要吸引的是重度用户。他认为决定性条件在于分发:如果 AI Mode 成为 Google Search 的默认界面,而不是要求用户主动改变行为,“那就是胜负已定”,因为默认设置的力量可以把新界面推向数十亿用户。

  • Google 的谨慎也源于 AI Overview 曾出现过一些显眼的失误,包括建议人们吃石头、把胶水涂在披萨上。Casey 认为,缓慢上线更多是被这种尴尬推动,而不是因为推理成本;Google 已表示,随着更高效的查询服务方式逐步成熟,推理成本正在下降。

  • 政治是产品焦虑的另一个来源。Google 警告,AI 回答可能会无意中呈现某种人格或观点;Casey 说,在此前 Gemini 争议之后,公司“对政治感到恐惧”,但用户最终想要的是一款其观点能够由公司公开承担的产品。

4. 即使按保守假设,AI 答案也会威胁引荐经济

  • Casey 将查询分为两类:一类只需要一个“足够好”的答案,另一类涉及健康、金钱或工作,必须回到原始来源。记者等专业人士会打开 New York Times、Wall Street Journal 或 Bloomberg 的页面;但大多数用户“根本不会点击那些该死的链接”。

  • Tolbit 报告称,AI 搜索界面带来的点击流量比传统 Google 搜索少91%,纯聊天机器人带来的点击少96%。Casey 质疑其方法,因为它追踪的是已知 AI 爬虫带来的流量,再除以这些爬虫访问出版商网站的总次数;爬虫访问次数并不等于搜索次数。

  • Kevin 的压力测试并不要求接受 Tolbit 的精确数字:即便真实降幅只有一半、约45%,对“媒体行业的大部分来说仍然会是一场灾难性事件”。Google 表示 AI Overviews 会带来更多整体搜索,但到目前为止,单个出版商受到的影响似乎并不积极。

  • Chegg 展示了这一机制如何超越新闻业。其每月15美元的服务包含超过1亿个考试答案,2021年估值达到120亿美元;Google 开始直接展示作业答案后,Chegg“基本变成了仙股”,并开始探索战略替代方案。Casey 的结论是:“Chegg 不会是最后一家这样的企业。”

5. 行政命令将 Bitcoin 储备与山寨币库存分开

  • 对 David Yaffe-Bellany 的采访发生在政策正式落地前。节目结尾的更新说明,Trump 随后签署行政命令,以刑事和民事程序中已经被没收或充公的资产为基础,建立战略 Bitcoin 储备。

  • 财政部长和商务部长可以制定收购更多 Bitcoin 的“预算中性策略”,并承诺不会增加纳税人负担。命令没有说明这些策略具体是什么,但它已经超越了单纯保留政府现有持仓的做法。

  • 非 Bitcoin 资产则被放入另一个美国数字资产库存,待遇不同。政府可以保留通过没收取得的代币,但命令明确不会继续购买非 Bitcoin 资产——这明显收窄了市场此前对政府将公开市场买入多个点名代币的预期。

6. 建立国家级加密货币储备的经济逻辑仍未解决

  • David 说,“Bitcoin 储备”或“加密货币储备”可以代表“10种不同的想法”。一种战略设想是,美元最终失去相对于 Bitcoin 或更广泛加密货币的地位,届时美国持有大量储备,就能为国内外项目融资、借贷或支出提供工具。

  • Casey 追问,即使这一情景成立,持有 Bitcoin 到底能实现什么。David 的回答仍然刻意留有余地:它会成为政府可以抵押借款或直接支出的资产,但“具体怎么运作并不完全清楚”。

  • 第二种逻辑更像主权财富基金,而不是应急储备:以约9万美元的价格买入 Bitcoin,如果支持者设想的价值在10年后达到20万亿美元,政府便能从中受益。这一论点本质上是投资押注,不同于能够驱动机器的石油,或用于应对物理稀缺的储备。

  • 加密行业支持者区分“库存”和“储备”:前者意味着政府保留已经拥有的代币,后者意味着政府继续买入。保留只需要改变政策;大规模购买显然需要国会拨款,不过支持者也提出过通过非常规法律路径单方面行动的设想。

7. 纳入山寨币把政府政策变成利益分配之争

  • Trump 最初点名 Solana、XRP 和 Cardano,随后又在一篇帖子中加入 Bitcoin 和 Ethereum,“仿佛”它们只是事后补充。David 提醒说,Trump 经常即兴发言,因此这份名单是否代表具体的采购计划并不清楚。

  • 这些并非凭空出现的新代币:XRP 与 Ripple 及其与 SEC 的重大争端有关;Solana 是 Ethereum 的竞争者,并承载 Trump 和 Melania 的迷因币;Cardano 的创始人曾参与 Ethereum 的早期发展。但它们的规模仍不足以证明对美国具有战略价值。

  • 市场影响立刻出现:Trump 发帖后,相关代币价格上涨,但部分涨幅随后回吐。政府的实际购买会影响供需,而美国政府印章出现在 Cardano 或其他资产上,本身就会让现有持有人受益。

  • 加密行业内部也出现了大量反弹。Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong 说,单独纳入 Bitcoin“可能是最好的选择”;Tyler Winklevoss 反对加入其他代币;Nick Carter 警告,储备会让 Bitcoin 变成“政府的玩物,受华盛顿政治周期摆布”。

8. 一个习惯于自我获利的行业,被利益冲突分裂

  • 在 XRP 出现在 Trump 的名单之前,Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse 曾在 Mar-a-Lago 活动,并向 Fairshake 大额捐款。Casey 将这种观感比作 Mark Zuckerberg 拉拢 Trump,随后政府宣布建立 Facebook 股票战略储备。

  • Trump 家族的 World Liberty Financial 直接让家族获利,并已积累大量代币,尽管其拟议中的 DeFi 应用尚未落地。David 表示,即使外界无法看到 Eric Trump 的个人投资组合,代币价格上涨仍然构成一种可争辩的财务利益。

  • David 给出了一个令人印象深刻的判断:加密行业参与者“喜欢让自己变得更富”,但同时也对针对自己的阴谋高度偏执。当 SEC 诉讼被撤销时,一些人会忽略利益冲突;当竞争代币进入储备、而自己偏好的资产落选时,他们又重新想起这一原则。

  • Bitcoin 最初那种反叛、反政府的身份进一步放大了矛盾。David 说,请求华盛顿积累代币、从而推高其价格,本身就违背了这一传统;“行业里大多数人已经不太在乎那些原则了,但仍有一些人在乎。”

9. 加密行业更低调的政策胜利,可能把下一次崩盘传导给所有人

  • 一项拟议中的稳定币法案将为美国稳定币公司制定运营规则,并让政府以某种形式批准这一加密行业分支。行业批评者认为,它可能成为一种“入门毒品”,让风险更高的资产进入主流经济。

  • 另一项重点是市场结构法案,将权限从 SEC 转移给“弱得多、激进程度也低得多”的 CFTC。两项法案合在一起,将把加密行业目前获得的政治善意转化为持久的制度规则。

  • Kevin 担心,华盛顿已经失去了知情的反对声音:曾在 MIT 教授加密货币的 Gary Gensler 已经离任,而早期批评者在经历市场崩盘和 Sam Bankman-Fried 入狱后,虽然觉得自己被证明是对的,却也已经疲惫不堪。“加密行业的人某种程度上已经占据了整座城,”David 说。

  • David 的系统性警告是:加密货币曾经与实体经济隔离,如今正通过 Bitcoin ETF,以及潜在的 XRP 或 Solana ETF,变得触手可及。Kevin 将这种知识不对称比作金融危机前的抵押贷款支持证券和信用违约掉期:内部人士先理解复杂性并从中获利,公众之后才意识到自己已经暴露其中。

10. 凭感觉编程最适合已经理解问题的用户

  • Casey 通过输入几条指令,做出了 Frog in a Bathrobe,一款能够运行但并不出彩的平台游戏。Kevin 的热水浴池维护应用则展示了另一面:它运行一周后开始每天发消息、每季度要求维护,让这个不会编程的创作者除了说“修好它”之外,不知道该如何调试。

  • Mike Lapchick 的速读工具会将粘贴的文本逐词显示,速度约为400词/分钟,而他引用的“普通人”速度是250词/分钟,旨在帮助阅读障碍和 ADD 用户避免文字混乱、注意力涣散。他从产品管理中得到的经验直接适用:前期定义越清晰,结果越好。

  • 麻醉科医生 Lauren Buell 于2024年11月开始用 Claude 构建 ConsultCraft;此前她没有编程经验,只有基本命令行操作能力。6周业余时间后,她做出了一个能够运行的模拟器;再经过3个月,她加入了每周病例、更多功能和用于研究的文字记录数据库。

  • ConsultCraft 的病例脚本和反馈帮助住院医生准备口试,也让有经验的同事复习不常见的手术室病例。Kevin 得出的更广泛结论是:为一个人打造的工具,往往也能服务有相同但长期被忽视需求的同行,尤其是在各种平台长期轻视无障碍问题的领域。

11. 可复用的自动化带来杠杆,但探索本身也是回报的一部分

  • 平面设计师 Matt 将 The Flavor Bible 的数据与调色板界面结合,做出了 Flavor Finder:它可以生成相容的5种食材组合,并允许用户锁定或替换食材。他不太成功的 Rochambeau 实验,则把井字棋和石头剪刀布结合起来,变成了观察 LLM 思考方式的一种手段。

  • 摄影师 Zach 使用 ChatGPT、Claude 和 DeepSeek 编写脚本,将近1,000个分层照片文件重命名、分类,并转换成不同的 JPEG 和 TIFF 格式。第一次尝试耗时约为手工操作的2倍,Photoshop 脚本也不够好,但这个可复用工具可以在未来的工作中节省时间。

  • Kevin 不接受只用效率作为唯一指标。搭建成本可以通过反复执行任务收回,但眼前的吸引力也在于“发现和探索”,以及观看计算机构建某样东西的乐趣;Casey 的说法更简单:“学习很有趣,做东西也很有趣。”

  • Ashley 要求制作“有点像妻子的东西”:从邮件、WhatsApp、Insta 聊天、短信、Evites 和 Facebook Messenger 中汇总待办事项,再生成任务和共享日历。障碍在于,这些彼此分散的服务大多无法互联,但 Kevin 承诺会尝试完成。

Kevin Roose

Well, Casey, it finally happened to me this week. I was radicalized by Elon Musk.

Casey Newton

Radicalized in what way?

Kevin Roose

Well, not into shifting my politics.

Casey Newton

Okay.

Kevin Roose

But I don't know if you saw, there was a big story in The New York Times a couple days ago that included, in its many revelations, a picture of Elon Musk's desk in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building next to the White House.

Casey Newton

I have not seen this picture.

Kevin Roose

And I'll show it to you. Do you know what is on this desk? It is a DOGE sign, a Make America Great Again hat, what appears to be a big gaming PC, and then in the middle of the desk, a very austere setup, is a huge, wide, curved computer monitor.

Casey Newton

Mm-hmm.

Kevin Roose

And I saw that photo, and I thought, "You know what? I want one of those."

Casey Newton

Because you thought, Elon Musk, whatever you think of him, he does clearly get a lot done, and so maybe if you had a big, curvy monitor like he does, maybe you'd also get a lot done.

Kevin Roose

Well, yeah, I thought these were basically for gamers. I had never seen one in an actual office where people work.

Casey Newton

Kevin, you have to come to my office. My monitor has curves and swerves like you wouldn't believe. It is so big and curvy. You would love my curvy monitor.

Kevin Roose

Really? See, I'm a flat-monitor guy, or at least I have been.

Casey Newton

No.

Kevin Roose

But this week I decided to take the plunge, and so I went onto Facebook Marketplace and got myself a 2-year-old Dell mega-monitor that is curved. I didn't go for the biggest one that is a full 180-degree wraparound, full-IMAX experience, but I do now have a very large curved monitor, and I have to say, I love it.

Casey Newton

How has it changed the way you use your computer?

Kevin Roose

I'm looking at so many emails. I am looking at, and not responding to, so many emails.

This week, Google is bringing AI to Search in a brand-new way. How will it change the internet? Then, The Times' David Yaffe-Bellany joins us to discuss the idea of a strategic crypto reserve, and why even some crypto supporters think it might be a bad idea. And finally, we asked you to share your experiments in vibe coding. Today, we're going to find out what you made.

Well, Kevin, every once in a while we get a preview of a very big change to the internet, and I think we might have gotten one of those this week.

Tell me about it.

1. Google Introduces AI Mode

Casey Newton

On Wednesday, Google said that in addition to expanding AI Overviews to more users and upgrading the underlying model to Gemini 2.0, it is also introducing a brand-new search mode called AI Mode, and it seems likely to me that this may be the future of Google.

Kevin Roose

Yeah. This is, I would say, at a minimum, a much better name than we have seen for any AI feature that Google has released over the past couple of years. AI Mode: it's a mode, it does AI. Seems pretty straightforward to me.

Casey Newton

Yeah. And where other companies might have called this X-73-Mini, Google just picked a normal name for it.

Kevin Roose

Yes.

Casey Newton

Which is something that Google does a lot.

Kevin Roose

That's true.

Casey Newton

So right now they're calling this an early experiment. It is rolling out now to paid subscribers to Google One's AI Premium subscription service. And even if you pay, you also have to opt into it through something called Google Labs, which is a feature that Google has to let you opt in to trying new stuff. So it's kind of hidden away. We have asked if we could use it right away, and they said no. So we don't have a direct report for you today, but what we can tell you is that AI Mode is Google's answer to bringing something like ChatGPT directly into Search, right?

So far, it has been dabbling. It's been sprinkling these little AI Overviews on top of the traditional 10 blue links. I'm sure you've all seen those. But while right now AI Mode is separate from Search, if it succeeds, I suspect it will gradually merge into the main Google Search results page. And that matters more than you might think, Kevin.

2. The Search Dilemma

Kevin Roose

Yeah. Before we get into AI Mode, let's set the scene here. Google: big company, most important search engine in the world. Ninety percent of search queries run through Google. It's used by billions and billions of people every day, and it has been an indispensable part of the architecture of the internet for the last several decades.

AI, large language models, ChatGPT comes along, and all of a sudden people, including us, think, "Why am I going to ask Google this question when I could ask it to an AI chatbot that might give me a better answer without requiring me to click on a bunch of links and navigate through a bunch of ads? I'll just get the answer I want right there in the LLM chat box."

Casey Newton

Exactly.

Kevin Roose

So this is obviously what kicks off this process at Google of saying, "Well, wait a minute. We have this very profitable search engine. We want to keep it profitable and make sure that people aren't using ChatGPT or Perplexity or some other product instead. So we want to bring AI into our search product."

But that is complicated because, among other reasons, these AI Overviews that you just described got some things famously wrong, including telling people to put rocks on their pizza. Or was it glue?

Casey Newton

It was telling them to eat rocks and to put glue on their pizza. Two different answers.

Kevin Roose

Okay.

Casey Newton

Yeah.

Kevin Roose

So they've spent some time retooling this, but they have not backed down on their ultimate belief that people will use AI for search-related tasks, and that because some number of people will want to do that, or are already doing that, they need to build that into the core Google search engine.

Casey Newton

That's right. And so, Kevin, this is really a story about Google being caught in between two imperatives. On one hand, it has to change with the times; it has to keep pace with the competition. On the other hand, it can't break its core business, which generated $54 billion last quarter. So that is a very tricky balance. How is it going to navigate that? AI Mode is the best evidence we have yet of how the company is thinking about it, so let's talk about it.

Kevin Roose

Okay, let's talk about AI Mode. What is it?

Casey Newton

AI Mode is a new mode within Google Search where, if you ask a query that might be a little bit better suited to a chatbot, you can click over, and it is going to give you a slightly more chatbot-like experience. But it is different from something like the Gemini app, which is Google's straight-up ChatGPT competitor, in a couple of pretty interesting ways.

There are very prominent links to websites within AI Mode in what a user interface designer would call a carousel—you know, those little horizontally scrolling bars of links. And so as you move through the answer to your query in AI Mode, Google is going to say, "Here are some actual websites you could visit to get more of that information."

Kevin Roose

And you just said this is rolling out to a small subset of paying Google users who have subscribed to this Google One AI plan. Presumably, this is something that they're interested in building into the Google experience for everyone eventually, right? Or is this going to remain small?

Casey Newton

So I talked with Google yesterday and tried to get a sense of that, and the company was loath to make too many predictions here. This really is an experiment, they told me, and if it goes super, super badly, they could presumably pull the plug. But I don't think that is going to happen.

I think Google realizes that this is a once-in-a-generation chance to reinvent the search experience, and that is going to mean a fundamentally different way of presenting information. That's what AI Mode is.

Kevin Roose

So I haven't tested out AI Mode on Google either. They have not made it available to me, but there are some screenshots floating around. I think maybe we should just describe what this is going to look like for people. They have a screenshot of someone asking the question, "Explain how déjà vu works and how it relates to memory." Now, I get a feeling I've heard that question before.

Casey Newton

I thought we talked about that on a previous episode.

Kevin Roose

Okay, we made the same joke. Good for us. So in AI Mode, instead of showing the user a list of links or an AI Overview, it sort of writes them a little essay. It says, "Déjà vu is that strange and fleeting feeling of having experienced something before, even though you know you haven't. It's like your brain is playing tricks, creating a sense of familiarity with a situation that's brand-new," and it continues on.

And then it has a little thing at the top right under the query that says, "four sites," and you can click to expand, and it gives you little icons showing which sites it's pulling this stuff from. But basically, this is Google's version of what tools like ChatGPT and Perplexity have been doing for a while now, which is sort of replacing the 10 blue links altogether with this more bespoke AI response.

Casey Newton

Yeah, and you can see that after each paragraph, there is a little icon of a chain link, which sophisticated Googlers like you and I will recognize as a hyperlink to a website from which Google derives information, and which many other people might just think is a fancy period.

You know what I mean? Those particular user interface elements, I would say, are not going out of their way to entice people to click.

Kevin Roose

Right, and we talked last year on the show about this idea that Google would do the Googling for you, right? They were very invested in trying to simplify the process of searching for information on the internet using AI, without requiring people to click through any of these blue links. I imagined at that time that they were trying to make this available to everyone, but it had some obstacles, including some of the mistakes that we talked about.

But it is expensive to run a search engine on a large language model this way. These queries require inference from these large models. It is not as cheap, easy, and efficient as just running a regular search engine. So did you ask them about that—how they've dealt with some of the cost concerns?

Casey Newton

I didn't ask them about that this week, but they have said over the past several months, effectively, that the costs keep coming down here. They're figuring out more and more efficient ways to serve these queries. For what it's worth, I don't think that the slow rollout of this is primarily a cost issue. I think it's much more related to the fact that when they launched AI Overviews, they got a bunch of egg on their face because they were telling people to eat things that, unlike eggs, cannot be eaten.

Kevin Roose

Right. Do you feel like this is an acknowledgment from them that they are losing market share to companies like Perplexity, companies that are offering a more AI-native search-like experience, or that large numbers of consumers are already using ChatGPT and other AI tools for things that they previously would have Googled?

Casey Newton

Absolutely. There was some interesting analysis that came out in January that showed that over the last 3 months of 2024, for the first time since 2015, Google's market share fell below 90%. Now, 90% market share is still incredible, and Google is just barely below it, but there is increasing evidence that these chatbots are starting to eat into Google's audience.

Some analysts have predicted that ChatGPT will have 1% market share in search by the end of this year. Bing, for what it's worth, which has been around forever, has something like 4% market share. So for ChatGPT to get from 0 to 1% in a little over 2 years is pretty impressive and speaks to why Google feels like it needs to do something.

Kevin Roose

Yeah. I'm finding that I'm using Google a lot less than I used to. I don't know exactly how much less, but I basically use Google now for what are called navigational queries, where I'm looking for this one train schedule or this one restaurant menu, and I know it's a link that's out there on the web. So I go to Google for that because it's right there in my browser bar, and it's very easy, and I can find the link.

I do not use Google anymore for things like product recommendations or advice about how to fix an appliance in my house or something like that. That is the kind of thing that I will now go to ChatGPT or Claude for, and I imagine that if I'm doing that, there are probably a lot more people out there doing that, too.

Casey Newton

There really are. While I don't know that this statistic speaks exactly to what you said, Kevin, last month, The Verge published this survey that, among other things, found that 42% of people find that search engines like Google are becoming less useful.

There are a lot of reasons people don't like the ads in Google. I think, arguably, the quality of websites has probably declined. There's a lot of AI slop out there, right? But I also think part of it is what you just named, which is that we now actually have a superior technology to a problem like, “The faucet in my sink broke, and I want to fix it. I bet something like ChatGPT can just tell me how to do that directly.”

Kevin Roose

Yeah. So I read the Google blog post about AI Mode that came out this week, and it's sort of interesting as an artifact of cultural anxiety at Google. They clearly know that they have to do something big around AI. Their competitors are doing it. It's eating into their market share. But they also seem a little bit scared of it.

There's this paragraph in there that says, “As with any early-stage AI product, we won't always get it right. For example, while we aim for AI responses in Search to present information objectively based on what's available on the web, it's possible that some responses may unintentionally appear to take on a persona or reflect a particular opinion.” What do you make of that?

Casey Newton

Look, Google is terrified of politics. To this day, if you ask questions about politics in Gemini, in my experience, it is more likely to refuse to answer your request than any other AI chatbot that I pay for, right?

They got in a lot of hot water last year, which we've talked about on the show, when, for example, they would not appear to depict exclusively white Founding Fathers when you would ask for that. In the wake of that, they got a ton of criticism, and so they tried to strip as much politics out of their products as they could.

Now they're about to put another thing out there where people are going to be asking it to give them opinions. Depending on what opinions are revealed, those people are then going to screenshot them and put them on social media, and congresspeople are going to see them, and it's going to trigger a whole cycle. So I understand why they are being cautious about this.

But I think it gets a bit silly because, ultimately, people are turning to these things for their opinions, and I think on some level, you want to have a product whose opinions you stand behind.

Kevin Roose

Yeah. So if you are a paying subscriber and you get access to AI Mode on Google, and you turn it on in your Google Apps feature, is every query that you type into a Google box going to be answered by AI from then on?

Casey Newton

No. You are still going to have to opt into this, right? Think about how many hoops Google is making you jump through to do this. They are truly in that sort of beta stage where they just want to gather some data. They want to see whether there are any obvious, horrible problems that we can identify and solve before we release this to the entire user base.

But I can tell you, as soon as I get access to this thing, this probably is going to become my default way of using Google for a lot of different kinds of queries, at least for a while. First, I want to see how good the AI responses are, but also, I'm so interested in this question of whether I click any of the links that are in this mode.

Because if I don't, then it does seem to move us closer to that world where the entire economic foundation of the internet is changing.

3. Publishers Lose Their Traffic

Kevin Roose

Okay, well, you brought this up, so let's dive into this issue of how this could affect publishers—people who make things and put them on the internet and rely on Google as a source of traffic. What do we know about how AI Mode is being received by the broader internet? Are people freaking out about this like they did with AI Overviews?

Casey Newton

There is a lot of nervousness among publishers in particular, right? A lot of people write stories about the news, and then people search for those news queries. In the past, they would click on links to read those stories, and then some of those people would see ads, and the publisher would make money. Some of those people would buy a subscription, and the publisher would make money. It seems like that is now happening less and less.

But Kevin, the impact is going beyond just publishers. There was this fascinating lawsuit that got filed last week by a company called Chegg. Do you know Chegg?

Kevin Roose

The homework cheating app.

Casey Newton

Exactly. So if you've been in college any time in the past 15 years, statistically, you used Chegg to cheat on your homework. It offers a database of more than 100 million answers to test questions, and it has been charging students about $15 a month to use this thing.

Well, then along comes Google and its AI Overviews. Using who knows what methods, but I'm going to assume they did some pretty aggressive scraping of Chegg and other websites, they started to put the answers to all these homework questions directly in the AI Overviews. All of a sudden, there is no need to visit Chegg, and Chegg, Kevin, is now on life support.

This is a company that was riding high during the pandemic. It was valued at $12 billion in 2021, and now its stock is basically a penny stock, and it is exploring strategic alternatives, which is sort of corporate speak for “We're going to have to unload this thing in a fire sale.”

In their lawsuit, Chegg said, “That traffic rightfully belonged to us, and Google destroyed us with AI Overviews.”

Kevin Roose

“You really disrupted us in the homework cheating business.”

Casey Newton

I realize as I'm saying this that Chegg is not a sympathetic company, and no one is going to be sorry to see it go who does not work at Chegg. But I'm telling you, this is a bellwether. Chegg is not going to be the last business to be completely disrupted by AI.

Kevin Roose

Yeah. So what do we know about how people who use AI tools for search-like tasks actually interact with links? Because every AI company that has rolled out something like this, whether it's Perplexity or Bing or Google, they've all said, “Look, people are still going to see links. Don't you worry, publishers. We're still going to put these little citations on it, or maybe we'll put some links below it, and you might get less traffic, but it'll be higher-quality traffic, and you'll still make a lot of money from it.”

So what do we know about whether those people were right or not?

Casey Newton

I think there's basically 2 kinds of queries that you can make.

1 query is an answer where you just need something that is good enough, right? You need to satisfy your curiosity about something, and if it's a little bit wrong by 5% in either direction, you don't really care because you're just looking for the gist of something. I think this is the vast majority of all queries.

There is a 2nd kind of query, though, which is, "I need the actual information because my health, my money, my job depends on it." These are the cases where I think that people are actually clicking on the links. I'm a journalist. I'm constantly Googling for information.

I cannot rely on an AI Overview for 1 thing, because if I'm going to put a statistic or a historical fact into my newsletter, I need to know what the original source is, and I need to know that I trust the original source. If that link is going to The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, or Bloomberg, I'm going to the original website. I'm scanning to that paragraph. I'm seeing it with my own eyes before I'm going to trust that it's real.

I think that's a really good thing that people should do in a lot of cases, but I'm also not naive. That is a minority use case for specialists. The vast majority of people, Kevin, do not need that level of clarity, and they are not clicking those dang links.

Kevin Roose

Right. There was a study that came out this week that I found totally fascinating and quite worrying. It was done by a company called Tolbit. They're basically an AI licensing company that sort of works as the go-between between publishers and companies making large language models.

They found in their study that the AI search interfaces they looked at—things that are similar to Google's AI Mode—delivered 91% less click-through traffic than standard Google searches. When they looked at pure AI chatbots, it was even worse. Those generated 96% fewer clicks to links than traditional Google searches. Casey, I'm no mathematician, but that's pretty bad.

Casey Newton

It's pretty bad, and I should say I have some questions about the methodology here. Basically, Tolbit took the amount of traffic to its publisher sites that it could trace from known AI scrapers and divided it by the total number of times that those scrapers hit their sites overall.

I talked to Google about this. Google was like, "This is a really bad way of measuring traffic," because Google's crawler is constantly scanning websites. Every time the Google crawler hits a website, that is not an actual Google search. So there's some uncertainty here about what this really means.

But at the same time, Kevin, these numbers are intuitive because you and I both use chatbots a lot, and we know that we're not clicking those links a lot of the time, particularly in cases where we are not using the chatbot to do our jobs.

Kevin Roose

Yes.

Casey Newton

Yeah.

Kevin Roose

No, and I think it's worth saying that even if these numbers were way off—say it was only half as bad—

Casey Newton

Right.

Kevin Roose

—as TollBit says it is, and these AI search tools only produced about 45% less traffic than the Google searches that preceded them, that would still be a cataclysmic event for much of the media industry.

Casey Newton

Totally. Now, Google has said, when I've asked about this, that the AI Overviews—which, again, is not AI Mode, but AI Overviews are sort of the warm-up to this AI Mode—have led people to search more in general, right? So Google says basically, "People like AI Overviews, and they see them, and they search more." That leads to maybe more searches in the aggregate, but the impact on traffic to individual publishers does not seem to have been positive so far.

Kevin Roose

Yeah. I mean, I want to play devil's advocate here for a little bit because you and I and others have been warning about these AI Overviews and these AI search products for more than a year now. We've been predicting that this would crater the traffic to publications and dramatically change the way that billions of people interact with the internet.

I think it's fair to say that, so far, that has not happened, at least at the scale that maybe you or I thought it might by now. There are some people who might be listening to this and saying, "You guys are panicking over nothing."

One thing that is true that we know is that people's habits change very slowly. There are still millions of people out there using AOL and Yahoo for their email, maybe Hotmail. These very old, what we would say are antiquated, services still have dedicated users because people are just used to going to their browser and typing in the same websites that they've been typing in for years.

So I think there is a case that I can imagine people making here that, yes, these AI features, these AI search engines, are going to appeal to power users in the Bay Area who spend all day looking stuff up online. But actually, they are not an existential threat to the internet or to publishers because most people are so used to going to Google that they are just going to continue to do that, even if a superior option exists.

4. Defaults Decide Google's Future

Casey Newton

So that is true, which is why if 1 day AI Mode is no longer a little hidden feature and is just actually the front door to Google Search, then that's the ball game because people will not have to change their entire habits in order to have this experience. It's just going to be the default. We know the power of defaults, right?

So that's why I want to talk about this today, because this could be a preview of what Google is in 2, 3, 5 years, and it's going to be very different from the Google—

Kevin Roose

Yeah.

Casey Newton

—we have today.

Kevin Roose

How do you search these days? What's your go-to if you have a question? Let's take it out of the realm of work. Say you're just looking for a good restaurant to go to. Where do you go?

Casey Newton

For something where it's like finding a local business, to me, that is still an area where Google excels. It's like I need to find an eye doctor. I want to find a restaurant that's nearby. I'm going to go to Google or Google Maps, something like that.

But there's this whole set of queries now that I am turning to chatbots for. I've talked before on the show about how I just have a little keyboard shortcut that I type in, and I can query an AI directly. That's everything from how-to questions to essentially just random trivia.

I'm trying to remember, when did this album come out? Or how old is this celebrity? And crucially, Kevin, a lot of those queries are things that Google still does very well. But there is a convenience to just getting a 1-sentence answer and not seeing a sprawling webpage that's full of 6 different ads and various other widgets that I don't care about.

So it's a mix of things, but chatbot usage when it comes to search is on the increase for me. How about you?

Kevin Roose

Yeah. I'm using chatbots for, I would say, at least half of what I would previously have used Google for. Now, I am not a traditional user. I am sort of an early adopter of this stuff. I have a whole bookmark folder of AI tools that I open up every morning and start using them for browsing.

So I'm not conventional in that sense, but I do find that for the majority of things that I'm looking for, chatbots tend to give me better answers than Google.

Casey Newton

When we come back, we have reserved some time to talk about the strategic crypto reserve.

5. Trump's Crypto Reserve

Kevin Roose

Well, Casey, there is a lot to say about what is happening in Washington right now. Elon Musk and his DOGE team are fanning out across the federal bureaucracy, slashing and burning wherever they go. But the story that I think we can really shed some useful light on here is about what's been happening with crypto and crypto policy.

Casey Newton

Yeah, Kevin. We heard some news over the weekend that President Trump was interested in something called a crypto strategic reserve, and we thought that sounds just silly enough that it could be a Hard Fork segment.

Kevin Roose

Yes. And then on Thursday night, just as we were finishing up this episode, news broke that President Trump had signed an executive order establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve. That announcement and the executive order attached to it clarified a few very important things.

1 is that this reserve will be filled with Bitcoin that is already owned by the federal government, that was seized or forfeited as part of criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings. The 2nd thing is that the Secretaries of the Treasury and Commerce, according to this executive order, will be authorized to develop what they call budget-neutral strategies for acquiring more Bitcoin. They say that this will not have an additional cost on the American taxpayer.

The 3rd thing that the executive order did is establish a separate U.S. digital asset stockpile, which consists of cryptocurrencies and other digital assets that are not Bitcoin. With respect to this stockpile, the executive order said that the government won't purchase any of these other non-Bitcoin crypto assets, but that if it gets some in the case of a criminal or civil proceeding, it will keep it and hold onto it as part of the stockpile.

We just want to note that that happened and that this conversation you're about to hear took place before the order was official, when a few more things were still up in the air. But I think it's fair to say, a really big deal.

Casey Newton

It absolutely is. Those currencies, Kevin, are closely tied to people in the Trump orbit who have investments in those very currencies, and so this seems like a classic case of self-dealing among people in and around the president's orbit.

Kevin Roose

Yeah. I think there's an element of just shedding light on what is happening in Washington right now with regard to crypto policy that is important for us as journalists to do. But I also am growing more worried about what I see as an information and knowledge gap between the pro-crypto proponents and the anti-crypto skeptics.

Casey Newton

Would you say that you have some reservations?

Kevin Roose

Yes. I have some strategic reservations—

Casey Newton

Mm-hmm.

Kevin Roose

—about this. Back in 2022, I was covering crypto much more attentively than I am now. This was sort of at the height of the last crypto boom.

Casey Newton

This is your Pudgy Penguins era.

Kevin Roose

Exactly. And I wrote this very long article, and I was basically arguing that people, whatever they thought of crypto, needed to understand it because this is something that could become strategically important if, for example, a bunch of pro-crypto partisans and activists were to seize control of some part of the federal government and start making big moves to enrich themselves and the people around them. And the response I got to that article was a lot of people saying, “Shame on you.”

Casey Newton

Mm-hmm.

Kevin Roose

“Shame on you for taking this stuff seriously, for trying to explain it, for trying to understand it.” The mere act of wanting to know about crypto was sort of coded as being in the pocket of the crypto industry.

Casey Newton

Yeah. And we're in a moment where just ignoring it is not going to make crypto go away. We know that now. And now that we see these really wild initiatives being proposed, I think it is time once again to see what we can learn and to engage with somebody who can hopefully explain what's going on.

Kevin Roose

Yes. I think it is time for a lot of crypto skeptics—and I would include myself in that group—to give what's happening in Washington more serious attention, because these are big moves with big consequences, and they may be hard to untangle even after Donald Trump leaves office.

Casey Newton

Yeah.

Kevin Roose

So today, we're bringing in our friend and friend of the pod, David Yaffe-Bellany. He's a crypto reporter at The New York Times, and he has been covering all of the twists and turns of this latest saga over the crypto strategic reserve. Let's bring him in. David Yaffe-Bellany, welcome back to Hard Fork.

David Yaffe-Bellany

Thanks so much for having me.

Kevin Roose

So let's start with some basic questions about this idea of a strategic United States crypto reserve. When do you start to hear about this, and what is the basic idea?

David Yaffe-Bellany

This was an idea that popped up on the campaign trail last year. President Trump started talking about it, and some influential figures in the crypto Twitter sphere were talking a lot about it. But what it actually meant was pretty obscure then and remains pretty obscure now, because when people say Bitcoin reserve or crypto reserve, they really could be talking about 10 different sorts of ideas.

Kevin Roose

Right. And I want to understand this idea of a strategic reserve, because my basic impression is that this is not a new idea. Governments have long stockpiled assets like gold or oil or other foreign currencies to basically give themselves some cushion against economic downturns or inflation, or just maybe running out of oil during a foreign conflict. So is this similar to those kinds of strategic reserves? Why do people in crypto think that we need a U.S. crypto reserve? Because crypto can't power heavy machinery. It can't feed people. It's not useful in the way that some of these other assets are.

David Yaffe-Bellany

I think there are 2 key arguments that people in the crypto world are making. The more reserve-like argument is that, at the moment, the reserve currency of the world is the dollar. The world runs on the dollar, but maybe not so far in the future, the world will run on Bitcoin or on cryptocurrencies more broadly, and it would be in the strategic interests of the United States to have a giant stockpile of crypto.

Casey Newton

What would it mean, though? Okay, so let's say we're living in fantasy land where the world now runs on Bitcoin. How does it benefit the United States to just own a bunch of Bitcoin?

David Yaffe-Bellany

It's money that you could borrow against. It's money that you could spend to fund all sorts of projects, either foreign or domestic. But you're asking the right question, because it's not totally clear how this would work.

Casey Newton

Okay.

David Yaffe-Bellany

The other argument that people in the crypto world make, I think, aligns more with this kind of concept of a sovereign wealth fund, which Trump has also said that he wants to do. And that's the idea that crypto is just a good investment, and that if we bought a bunch of Bitcoin now at about $90,000, then 10 years from now, when it's worth $20 trillion, we'll be set up for success.

Kevin Roose

I'm curious how this idea of a strategic crypto reserve—

Casey Newton

—fits with some of the other stated goals of the Trump administration, which is to cut costs and reduce the size of government, not invest a bunch of money in some new class of asset. The funniest post I saw about this said the following: “Sir, we have saved $12 billion that were spent on condoms for Gaza and transgender comic books in Brazil.” “Excellent. Let's buy some Cardano.” So how are people in the crypto policy world reconciling these 2 views of what the government should be doing?

David Yaffe-Bellany

Some of them just aren't reconciling it. They're just embracing the hypocrisy. And it's not the first time they've done something like that.

But there's also a huge split in the crypto world over whether this should be a Bitcoin-exclusive reserve or whether it should be a reserve featuring a bunch of different cryptocurrencies. On the campaign trail, at the Bitcoin Nashville conference, Trump said that he was going to start a Bitcoin stockpile, and all he said was Bitcoin. When he raised this topic again a few days ago on Truth Social, he named all these other tickers for various cryptocurrencies that the people around him have economic interests in and said, “Oh, it's going to involve all of these, too.”

And a lot of people in the crypto world said, “No, we love Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the most established of these assets. It's the one that has the longest-term potential. So don't fill your government coffers with Cardano.”

6. Crypto Splits Over Altcoins

Casey Newton

Well, here is where it starts to feel truly silly to me. When Trump started talking about a Bitcoin strategic reserve, I had actually heard of this idea before. Am I right, David, that El Salvador also built a Bitcoin strategic reserve?

David Yaffe-Bellany

Yeah. Other countries are exploring this, too. There are various states where proposed legislation is pending that would create Bitcoin reserves, but it tends to be focused on Bitcoin.

Casey Newton

Right.

David Yaffe-Bellany

Which, to be clear, is by far the most valuable cryptocurrency and the one with the longest track record.

Casey Newton

Right. So I had at least heard of the idea before, but then in this post that Trump made on Truth Social on Sunday, he says, “We also want to put Solana, XRP, and Cardano into this strategic reserve.” David, can you give us a little bit of flavor about what Solana, XRP, and Cardano are?

David Yaffe-Bellany

These are 3 examples of what people in the crypto world call altcoins, which are cryptocurrencies that are a little bit outside the mainstream of Bitcoin. But these are big—

Casey Newton

They're cooler. They play smaller clubs. They're not your Madison Square Garden cryptocurrencies.

David Yaffe-Bellany

But this isn't like some random coin that got invented a day ago. XRP is run by a company called Ripple, which has been a huge player in the crypto world for a long time and had this really important legal battle with the SEC. Solana is one of the top cryptocurrencies. It's a competitor to Ethereum. It's the platform on which the Trump and Melania meme coins were built, perhaps not coincidentally.

And then Cardano was created by a guy who has been a huge player in crypto for a long time and was involved with the early Ethereum movement. These aren't crazy coins, but it's a little bit weird to talk about putting them in a government stockpile.

Casey Newton

Right. It's one thing to say these are altcoins that have been around a while, that they're in fairly wide distribution, and another thing to say that there is strategic value to the United States in accumulating a huge stockpile of these things.

David Yaffe-Bellany

Yes. With a lot of things that Trump says, it's not clear how serious he was because he says things sort of off the cuff. His first tweet named those 3 tickers, and then there was another tweet where he was like, “Oh, also Bitcoin and Ethereum will be in it, too,” as if it were an afterthought. So it's tough to read what he's actually saying.

The other thing that's not clear at all is that he said on the campaign trail he would create a Bitcoin stockpile built on Bitcoin that the government already owns, because we've seized a lot of Bitcoin from criminals over the years. It's in the billions of dollars. Historically, the U.S. has tried to sell that Bitcoin, and so all he said on the campaign trail was, “We're going to draw a box around the Bitcoin we already have and not sell it.” It's very different from saying, “We're going to hit up the open market and buy a ton of Solana.”

Casey Newton

Yeah, how would that actually work in practice? Because I understand that the United States does have this Bitcoin that it's seized from people who commit various crimes and is presumably keeping in some secure wallet somewhere.

But to acquire new crypto assets, would they just go onto Coinbase and buy a bunch and keep it in a vault in the Treasury building? Or how would we actually go about this as a country?

David Yaffe-Bellany

Well, when you buy a big tranche of cryptocurrency as a huge institution, you're usually doing it as what's called an over-the-counter trade, where you're dealing directly with another person that you're buying it from. The idea is to try to limit the impact that a trade like that can have on the open market. So it's not like the Treasury secretary will log on to his Coinbase account and just start hitting the buy button.

But how would those purchases be funded? None of this has been fully explained, and obviously any government spending raises the possibility of a tax increase or spending some of these perhaps imaginary DOGE savings that we've supposedly been accumulating, so it's all really confusing.

Casey Newton

Yeah. How are people in the crypto community responding to this idea of a strategic crypto reserve?

David Yaffe-Bellany

The response has been, I think, fairly negative from a lot of people who you might have expected to be supportive of it, and that's because there's a feeling in the crypto world that, “Wow, this might actually be a little bit of a conflict of interest.” It's like a bunch of people are discovering that that's a problem in the Trump political universe.

People are noticing that Brad Garlinghouse, the chief executive of Ripple, spent a lot of time at Mar-a-Lago before the inauguration and was a huge donor to Fairshake, the big crypto PAC, and suddenly the signature cryptocurrency used by Ripple, XRP, is going to be in the crypto reserve. And so people have become suspicious of those sorts of behind-the-scenes maneuverings. There's also a lot of loyalty to Bitcoin in the crypto world still, and a sense that we should be treating Bitcoin differently from this other stuff.

Casey Newton

It's not all that different from if Mark Zuckerberg spent a lot of time with Trump at Mar-a-Lago and then President Trump announced that we were going to create a strategic Facebook stock reserve—of just shares of Facebook, right? I don't really think there's much difference between those 2 things.

Kevin Roose

Yeah, I mean, is that what is likely to happen if and when this strategic crypto reserve is created: that anything that is in the basket of stuff that we stockpile as a country will become more valuable just by virtue of the fact that we are stockpiling it as the United States government?

David Yaffe-Bellany

Yeah, I mean, this stuff became more valuable by virtue of the fact that Trump tweeted about it, right? The prices of these assets immediately went up, though I think some of those gains have been pared back since then. But yes, there's a concrete market effect. If someone starts buying a lot of an asset, the price will go up, so that will happen. But the symbolic statement of the U.S. putting its government seal on Cardano would be big for anyone who currently holds Cardano.

Kevin Roose

Right, and I was surprised to see some of the people in the crypto industry coming out against this proposal. Brian Armstrong, the co-founder and CEO of Coinbase, made a post basically saying that just having Bitcoin in the strategic reserve “would probably be the best option.” He didn't want all these other coins included. Tyler Winklevoss, 1 of the biggest Bitcoin investors in the world, also said that he doesn't think other crypto coins should be included in the strategic reserve.

There's a really interesting article by Nick Carter, who is a crypto analyst, trader, and voice on these issues.

David Yaffe-Bellany

Wasn't Nick Carter in the Backstreet Boys?

Kevin Roose

Different Nick Carter.

David Yaffe-Bellany

Okay.

Kevin Roose

Yes. But he is a stalwart defender of crypto, and he had an article called “Eight Reasons a Strategic Crypto Reserve Is a Bad Idea.” I just want to read you a line from this because I think it illustrates where some of these people are coming from. He writes, “A crypto reserve would transform Bitcoin from an apolitical asset into the plaything of the government, subject to Washington's political cycles. Bitcoiners were never ones to hitch their wagon to the government, and they shouldn't start now.”

So it seems, David, like there's essentially this coalition of more libertarian crypto supporters who think, “We actually don't want to be embraced by the federal government in this way,” because that could undermine some of the libertarian ideology of the initial crypto wave.

David Yaffe-Bellany

Yeah, I mean, as you said, Nick was opposed even to the idea of a Bitcoin reserve before this whole notion of a crypto reserve came up, and so it's definitely been divisive. Crypto—Bitcoin, in particular—started as this renegade economic movement. So to be begging the government to buy up a huge stockpile so that the price goes up seems sort of antithetical to a lot of those principles. Most people in the industry don't really care about those principles anymore, but some still do.

Kevin Roose

Well, let's talk about this more cynical take: that this is all just a self-enrichment scheme by the Trump administration. I know about the Trump meme coins. We've talked about those. I know that a lot of Trump supporters and friends are heavily invested in the crypto industry, but what do we actually know about the Trump family's personal interest in crypto beyond this small set of meme coins? I've seen Eric Trump tweeting on and off about crypto and various coins that he's interested in. Do we know much about the Trump family's overall exposure to the crypto markets?

David Yaffe-Bellany

We don't have a window into Eric Trump's personal crypto portfolio, but what we do know is that World Liberty Financial, the crypto business that the Trump family helped start last year and from which the Trump family profits directly, has, over the last few months, accumulated a huge stash of various cryptocurrencies.

It was supposed to launch some sort of crypto application, a DeFi project. That hasn't come to fruition yet, but this firm is sitting on a huge stash of tokens, so there's arguably a financial benefit for the Trump family in seeing those tokens rise in value.

Kevin Roose

Right, and some of the people that President Trump has tapped to lead crypto policy efforts in the federal government have also invested at various points in crypto stuff. David Sacks, 1 of Trump's advisors, has made some crypto investments over the years. He's said that he's divested from those to prevent conflicts of interest, but there are other people in the administration who presumably still do have active investments in these categories. So what do people in crypto think of the argument that this is all just a bunch of insiders trying to use the powers of the government to enrich themselves?

David Yaffe-Bellany

People in the crypto world are super cynical and love enriching themselves at all times, but they're also super paranoid and suspicious and are constantly convinced that there's some sort of conspiracy to screw them over. Those 2 instincts have clashed, and you can sort of see the internal battle playing out in a lot of crypto people who like Trump, where they ignore the conflict of interest that benefits them when it means SEC suits getting dropped, but they pay attention to it when it means that their favorite crypto didn't make it into the reserve but someone else's did.

And so I think that's sort of the conflict that's playing out in the industry, and why there's been some public backlash.

Kevin Roose

Yeah. So how likely do we think the strategic crypto reserve is to actually happen? Does Congress need to do anything? Can Trump just do this on his own by executive action? What are we going to see in the next couple of weeks and months?

David Yaffe-Bellany

Yeah, I mean, the way crypto people have made this distinction is: Is it a stockpile or is it a reserve?

Kevin Roose

Mm.

David Yaffe-Bellany

And if it's a stockpile, what they mean is we're just keeping the crypto we already have. If it's a reserve, that means we're buying more crypto on the market. I don't think there's anything inherent in those words that means those things, but that's how crypto people talk about it.

If the Trump administration goes the stockpile route and just keeps the Bitcoin it already has, that won't require any spending. It just requires a change in policy: Let's stop trying to sell this stuff. But if the administration goes the reserve route, and as far as we know, the government doesn't actually own any Cardano right now, so it would actually have to buy it to put it in the reserve.

If the government goes that direction, then yes, there's a question of how you would fund that. Congressional appropriation is the most obvious route, especially if it's a huge purchase. But since the summer, people in the crypto world have floated various out-there legal ideas about how Trump could push this through on his own.

7. Crypto Enters The Mainstream

Kevin Roose

Mm. Okay, so David, obviously a lot of what's getting attention in crypto these days is related to meme coins and strategic reserves and whatnot, but there's also some quieter crypto stuff that I understand is happening in Washington that could end up also being quite important, but may be flying under people's radars because it's not frankly that interesting. One of them is this stablecoin bill, which actually looks like it might pass with bipartisan support. Tell us about that.

David Yaffe-Bellany

So 1 of the big priorities of the crypto industry in this administration is to basically convert all the political goodwill it has into legislation, and there are 2 key pieces of legislation that the industry wants to advance.

One is this stablecoin bill, which would essentially create rules for stablecoin companies to operate in the U.S. It wouldn't do anything super crazy, but it would essentially create a regulatory framework for stablecoins that would, in some way, put a kind of government seal of approval on this branch of the crypto industry, which is super important. And so that's something that the industry has been pushing for, and which critics say, “Look, I mean, this could be a kind of gateway drug to the U.S. allowing other, even more dangerous crypto stuff to seep into the mainstream economy.” So that's the first priority.

The second priority is a market structure bill, and basically what that means is legislation that would strip power away from the SEC, which has obviously been super hard on crypto, and give it to the CFTC, the much weaker, less aggressive agency. So those are the 2 big legislative things that crypto people wanna do.

Casey Newton

Hmm.

Kevin Roose

So I wanna bring this back to the question of the information gap that exists in crypto right now. My experience, and maybe your experience too, is that the people who understand crypto the deepest, who can talk about the L2s and the stablecoins and the DEXs, most of them are invested in crypto in some way, which is why they have taken the time to understand all of the extremely complex parts of the crypto ecosystem. But what worries me about that is that there is essentially no principled opposition left, it seems to me, in Washington, D.C.

The people who are making the policy, who are having the debates about the policy, they all come from the same universe of people who are bullish, by and large, about crypto. Maybe they have some disagreements about which crypto assets should be included in a strategic reserve or exactly how some regulations would be written, but there doesn't seem to me to be anyone left in Washington who knows what they're talking about and can stand up to some of these schemes from the industry. Is that an accurate read of the situation?

David Yaffe-Bellany

Yeah, partly this is a function of the changing administration. There were a huge number of people in Washington who knew about crypto and were in positions of power. Gary Gensler himself taught an MIT course on crypto. This wasn't some naive guy who didn't know the difference between Bitcoin and Ethereum. He was running the SEC. Now he's out, and the crypto people have the run of the town.

I also think there's an element of fatigue here that parallels the broader fatigue over what's going on with Trump. Some of the loudest crypto critics, people like the actor Ben McKenzie, who was super vocal during the last bull run and crypto crash, feel like they made their point. They were screaming about how dangerous crypto was, and then the whole thing crashed, and Sam Bankman-Fried went to prison, and they were proved right in a lot of ways. And yet crypto came surging back, and I think a lot of people don't have the energy to fight this fight all over again.

Casey Newton

Maybe part of that is just the assumption that, when that crash happened, it seemed like the people who were affected were the ones that had decided to take the gamble on crypto, whereas people who just ignored the whole thing were basically fine. And so maybe that's why people are prioritizing their energy a little differently. What I think is concerning, though, is what you said, which is, look, if we pass a stablecoin bill in this country, if crypto becomes more connected to the main economy, then all of a sudden, if there's another crash, normal people might start to feel the pain.

David Yaffe-Bellany

Yeah, absolutely. Crypto used to be walled off from the real economy, and it still is in a lot of important ways, but that's beginning to change. The walls are coming down. We already have a Bitcoin ETF. We could have an XRP ETF soon, a Solana ETF. That just creates more avenues for people to put their traditional savings into crypto.

Casey Newton

If your employer tells you that they're gonna start paying you in Cardano, look for another job. That's what I'm gonna say.

Kevin Roose

But I will say that I think there's also an element of complexity here that makes it very hard for people who are not spending hours a day trying to keep up with what's going on in crypto to make sense of it all. It reminds me a little bit of what happened on Wall Street during the financial crisis, where you suddenly had these assets that no regular people had ever heard of: mortgage-backed securities, credit default swaps, synthetic bonds.

These things that were so esoteric and hard to understand all of a sudden became quite important, and the people who understood them had been trading them for years, trying to make a bunch of money. But they had not been sharing that information because it was not in their interest to share that information. They didn't want us to know what was going on. And so my fear is that there's something similar happening in crypto right now, where the people who really understand this stuff are making a killing on it, possibly at the expense of the rest of us.

Casey Newton

Hmm.

David Yaffe-Bellany

Yeah, and the complexity was a barrier to regular people getting into it for a long time. But with these ETFs coming onto the market, suddenly there's a way for you to buy this from your brokerage account, to have it factored into your retirement investments. It just increases the level of exposure.

Kevin Roose

Yeah. Well, DYB, thanks for coming on.

Casey Newton

DYB.

Kevin Roose

Great to see you.

Casey Newton

TYVM.

David Yaffe-Bellany

Thanks for having me.

Kevin Roose

Never actually heard anyone say that out loud. I thought it was just a text thing.

Casey Newton

Didn't sound great.

I thought it sounded great.

Kevin Roose

Yeah. When we come back, we'll follow up on our episode about vibe coding and what you built with your vibe coding tools.

Casey Newton

It's time to share with the class.

8. Vibe Coding Goes Practical

Kevin Roose

Well, Casey, a couple weeks ago on the show, we talked about AI vibe coding. This is the idea of using AI tools to build apps and websites and other things for yourself, even if you don't know how to code. I talked about some of the projects I'd been building. I built you a hot tub time machine for your hot tub, and we asked listeners to tell us what kinds of projects they were vibe coding. And Casey, we got a lot of responses.

Casey Newton

We got so many responses. I'm told it was more than 60 in all, and it was so fun to read through these. Some of the people who wrote in had some amount of technical expertise, and it does seem like the more technical expertise they had, the further they were able to get. But we were also hearing from people who had never coded before and were just trying to see how far they could go with the tools that they have today, and in some cases, the answer was pretty far.

Kevin Roose

Yeah, and I wrote a column about this last week, about my vibe-coding experience, and I also got a ton of feedback—emails, comments, texts—from people who said, “I was pretty skeptical about these tools. Maybe I hadn't used them in a while, but after I read your article or heard your segment, I went out, I tried this stuff, I built something.” So I do think that there's something about having this firsthand encounter with this technology that is persuasive in a way that two guys yakking about it are not.

Casey Newton

Yeah, and for what it's worth, after we had that conversation, I went back to my house, got out my laptop, and attempted to vibe code.

Kevin Roose

Yeah? What'd you vibe code?

Casey Newton

I made a little platformer video game with a frog in a bathrobe jumping around various platforms, collecting coins. I realize that sounds absurd. The absurd thing was I was able to make that.

Kevin Roose

Yeah.

Casey Newton

Because I just typed a few words into a box.

Kevin Roose

It works?

Casey Newton

It works. Now, is it a very fun video game? No, but it exists.

Kevin Roose

That's amazing.

Casey Newton

It is amazing.

Kevin Roose

Wait, can I play it?

Casey Newton

Absolutely.

Kevin Roose

What's it called?

Casey Newton

It's called Frog in a Bathrobe.

Kevin Roose

Okay. So before we hear about our listeners' vibe-coding experiments, I should also check on the status of the hot tub time machine. How's it doing?

Casey Newton

Well, first of all, I have to say thank you. It was very kind of you to spend some time in your busy life creating a program that would attempt to instruct me when to put various chemicals and do other forms of maintenance on my hot tub. Hot Tub Time Machine did seem to get a little out of control.

Kevin Roose

Oh, no. What happened?

Casey Newton

I will say that after our episode, it was emailing me basically every day and telling me to do quarterly maintenance after I'd owned my hot tub for a week. So fortunately, the emails have slowed down a bit, but it did introduce some questions into my mind about the reliability of Hot Tub Time Machine.

Kevin Roose

Yeah. Well, I'm sorry about that, and I have not looked into that because, frankly, I wouldn't even know how to start debugging something like this. This is one of the weird things about vibe coding: You can create something that works, sort of, but if it ever breaks, you have no idea what you're doing. You just have to poke at it and say, “Fix it.”

Casey Newton

That's the exact approach I take to home maintenance. If it breaks, oh boy. I'm vibing in the house all day, but then—uh-oh—this stopped working.

Why can’t—why isn’t the ice maker—

Kevin Roose

Yeah.

Casey Newton

—making ice? I don’t know.

Kevin Roose

I vibe-assembled an IKEA shelf the other night. Let me tell you.

Casey Newton

Don’t stand underneath it during an earthquake. That’s what I’ll say about that shelf.

Kevin Roose

Okay, let’s get to our listeners, and let’s hope that they are doing a little bit better than we are with our vibe-coding experiments.

Casey Newton

Let’s do it.

9. Listeners Build New Tools

Speaker 3

Hi, my name is Mike Lapchick, and I live in Chicago’s Wicker Park neighborhood. First of all, the app I made is a speed reader for myself and for my dyslexic ADD friends who can’t read without jumbling up letters and words and losing focus altogether. How it works is you paste text in, say, from an article, and it displays one word at a time at around 400 words per minute, versus 250 words per minute for normies.

I’m not a coder, but I did run the product team at my last startup, and the experience was so similar to working with a developer. The better I defined the project upfront, the better the results. If I started with a loose definition, it could become really laborious, again, just like working with a real developer. Thanks for letting me share. Keep up the great work.

Casey Newton

So, Kevin, how did you understand what Mike has built?

Kevin Roose

This is interesting because it’s similar to things that I think have been around for a number of years, which are these speed-reading apps that basically take blocks of text, whether it’s an article or a book or just a long email, and they basically do what is called rapid serial visual presentation, or RSVP. That’s basically flashing one word at a time on your screen very quickly, so that instead of reading left to right, you’re basically just getting the fire hose directly at you. You don’t have to move your eyes at all. It’s just one word after another.

People who swear by these apps say it helps them read much faster. I’ve never been a big user of them, but it could also be helpful for something like dyslexia, where it maybe helps you avoid transposing letters—

Casey Newton

Hmm.

Kevin Roose

—and getting confused that way.

Casey Newton

So I love this. We hear from listeners sometimes who want us to talk more about accessibility issues and technology, and maybe one reason why we don’t talk about it more is that it is a topic that platforms generally give short shrift to, right? We do not see huge investments being made in accessibility software, and so this feels like a perfect use of vibe coding.

You are scratching your own itch. You are building the thing that you cannot trust the company to build for you, and now you have a tool that is maybe going to be useful to folks who have dyslexia and ADHD.

Kevin Roose

Yeah. I should say, I also think this is a great idea, and I think it also demonstrates how disruptive vibe coding can be. There are speed-reading apps that work basically as Mike described that are out there on the market that you have to pay for. You could go download one of those, and maybe it’ll be a little more polished and have a few more features, or you could just make one yourself for whatever subscription vibe-coding product you’re using and build your own that you can use over and over again for free.

Casey Newton

Yeah, very interesting. All right, let’s hear the next one.

Speaker 4

My name is Lauren Buell, and I’m a full-time practicing anesthesiologist based in Hanover, New Hampshire. I started vibe coding with Claude back in November 2024 and created this app called ConsultCraft that uses adaptive AI to simulate anesthesiology case discussions and provide real-time feedback that’s based on case scripts and answers written by me.

I have no coding experience and just a very basic understanding of the command line, so it took me about 6 weeks in my spare time to make something that was functional enough that I could send it to my colleagues. Now it’s been about 3 months of adding new features and cases weekly, including a database so I can save transcripts for research.

I expected to hear mostly from my residents, who were using it to prepare for their oral board exams, but I’ve also gotten a lot of positive feedback from colleagues who say things like, “I haven’t really done that particular case in a while in the operating room, and this was a nice refresher,” which has been really great to hear and really unexpected.

Kevin Roose

Well, I gotta say, this anesthesiologist did not put me to sleep.

Casey Newton

No, this perked me right up.

Kevin Roose

Yeah.

Casey Newton

So explain what Lauren has built here.

Kevin Roose

Okay, so I’m looking at Lauren’s app right now. It’s very pretty. It’s called ConsultCraft, and it looks like basically a case simulator where you can say something that I don’t understand, like, say, you have a transcarotid artery revascularization for carotid stenosis.

Casey Newton

I do have that.

Kevin Roose

And you can click on that, and you can go into a tutor mode where it explains the case: a 77-year-old man with a history of hypertension, something else I can’t pronounce, and diabetes mellitus presents to the ED with an episode of right-sided amaurosis fugax.

Casey Newton

Wasn’t Omarosa in the first Trump administration?

Kevin Roose

That’s Omarosa.

Casey Newton

Oh, that’s right.

Kevin Roose

Yeah. So it basically says, “What do you think of this case?” Then you can type your response and get some feedback, or there is a voice mode. This is very cool.

Casey Newton

Yeah.

Kevin Roose

And I get why this took Lauren 6 weeks to build. It is not a simple tool, but I can see how this would be quite useful.

Casey Newton

Absolutely, and I find this so inspiring because all of us have some kind of itch in our professional lives where we feel like, if only we had a tool like this, it would make our life so much easier. Up until now, if you couldn’t write software, you probably couldn’t do much about this, certainly not in the digital realm.

But Lauren figured out, “You know what? I’m going to apply myself. I’m going to spend 6 weeks, and I’m going to build something that now is benefiting not just myself, but all of my colleagues.” This is just a great example of the potential of vibe coding.

Kevin Roose

Yeah, and it actually illustrates something that I found when I wrote about vibe coding, which was that I had built all these software products that I thought were only useful for me, like this tool to help me recommend what to pack for my kids’ lunch. I put it out there in my story that I built this, and then I started hearing from people saying, “Can I get access to this tool?”

So it turns out that if you build something just for yourself, there are probably at least a few other people in the world who could benefit from it too.

Casey Newton

So true. Let’s hear from our next listener.

Speaker 5

Hey, Kevin and Casey. This is Matt. I’m a graphic designer, I live in Los Angeles, and I’ve been vibe coding for about 6 months. I created a project called Flavor Finder with Claude, and it’s a combination of the data set of The Flavor Bible, which is an excellent cooking reference, along with the UI of a color-palette generator.

You can go one by one and build the palette as you go, or you can just push Generate, and it will create a 5-ingredient flavor pairing where all of the ingredients pair well together. You can lock ingredients and substitute, move them around. It’s actually been a really fun way to discover new stuff in the kitchen.

Another exercise that I do with a lot of the LLMs is something I call Rochambeau. It’s a combination of the 2 worst games of all time: tic-tac-toe and rock-paper-scissors. I just say, “Hey, create a little playable web app for me combining these 2 games. They’re so bad. Make something fun.”

I have to say, unfortunately, it struggled to create anything that’s very entertaining, but it is an interesting way to observe how an LLM is thinking.

Kevin Roose

I should just start by announcing that The New York Times Company has acquired Rochambeau for a billion dollars.

Casey Newton

Move over, Wordle.

Kevin Roose

So here’s Flavor Finder. If you see some ingredients that might work well together here—watercress, pineapple, pork, shallot, and olive oil—you can have it generate different combinations of things that fit the taste profile you’re looking for. Look, I am not a good enough home cook to take advantage of something like this, but I know a lot of people probably are.

Casey Newton

I might try this.

Kevin Roose

I think you should.

Casey Newton

The next step beyond vibe coding is vibe cooking. And I would like to challenge him to a game of Rochambeau.

Kevin Roose

All right, the next one comes to us from listener Zach.

Speaker 6

Hi, Kevin and Casey. My name is Zach. I’m a photographer in New York City, and like Kevin, I was once a young nerd who bounced off of coding in exchange for photography and Flash and Dreamweaver and all that.

Lately, I’ve been using a combination of ChatGPT, Claude, and DeepSeek to help me write these little custom shell or Python scripts that help me with some mundane photo tasks. For example, I had a recent job where I had almost 1,000 images that needed to be renamed based on the subject, moved into subfolders based on that name, and exported from their layered Photoshop files into JPEGs and TIFFs in different file sizes.

It was a whole mess, and AI helped me write a script to automate this organization process. It even tried to make a Photoshop script to help with the export, but it was pretty bad at that language.

But, of course, with all the debugging, it probably took twice as long as it would've taken to do manually. But it was a lot more fun, and now I have this cool script I can tweak in the future. Thanks.

Casey Newton

Yeah, so I feel like a question that we never quite answer enough is, what do we actually want AI for? To me, an answer to that question is that most people's lives are filled with unimaginable drudgery and things that take so long, are so tedious, and require zero creativity—really none of their human skills whatsoever. Zach found himself in exactly this situation, right? He has 1,000 photos. He needs to manipulate them. It's going to take forever, but can he just vibe code a solution that takes him twice as long as if he had just done it himself? I think that's inspiring.

Kevin Roose

Yeah, it is, but I also think he's being a little facetious about this, because it does seem like this is a process that he does frequently, and so this tool will help him save time in the future. Yes, there is some setup cost to building this tool for yourself, but if this is something that you're planning to do over and over again, it may actually make sense to build a tool rather than doing it manually every time.

Casey Newton

Yeah, absolutely. And honestly, to me, the sort of BS I want to deal with is wrangling with the computer rather than the tedium of doing it myself. I'm happier trying to create the tool that hopefully has multiple uses in it than I am just being like, "Well, it'll be faster if I just manually rename 1,000 photos."

Kevin Roose

Right, and I think the part of Zach's response that I resonate with so much is the joy of it.

Casey Newton

Yeah.

Kevin Roose

This is something that I got a lot of blowback on when I published my column. People said, "Oh, does any of this stuff actually work? Does it actually save you time? How hard is it to actually decide what to put in your kid's lunchbox yourself, you lazy jerk?" And I understand that. I think for me, the point of vibe coding is not pure efficiency. It is also discovery and exploration, and I find it very fun to watch the code fly past as the computer goes to work building something for me.

Casey Newton

Yeah. To make a point that I think is sometimes underappreciated, it is fun to learn, and it is fun to make things.

Kevin Roose

Yes.

Casey Newton

And these tools help people learn to make things—

Kevin Roose

Yes.

Casey Newton

—and that's cool.

Kevin Roose

Yep. Thanks, Zach. All right, let's hear from our last vibe coding listener of the day. This one is more of a request.

Speaker 7

Hi, Kevin and Casey. My name is Ashley. I'm from Southern California, and I am a working mom with 4 kids: a 9-year-old, a 6-year-old, a 4-year-old, and a 2-year-old. My vibe code idea is that I just need an app that goes through all of the social things that I am supposed to read, capture, and do something with across my kids' social calendars. So it's email, WhatsApp chat, Insta chat, text messages, Evites for the birthdays, even Facebook Messenger. I don't know if that's still a thing, but I just need something that's going to summarize, plan, give me a to-do list, and put it on a shared calendar, which I guess sounds like something that a wife would be able to do, but I'm not that interested in that. So if you could just vibe code me a bit of a wife, that would be awesome. All right. I love the show. Thanks.

Casey Newton

Thank you, Ashley. Truly, I don't know if I've ever been so delighted on this show as I have been listening to Ashley's children stampede through her house in the background while she was recording this request, which I think is a great request.

Kevin Roose

Yeah. Also, 4 kids as a working mom—I'm tired just thinking about it.

Casey Newton

Yeah. God bless.

Kevin Roose

God bless you.

Casey Newton

God bless Ashley. Now, look, this one is a challenge. First of all, the idea is great.

Kevin Roose

Yes.

Casey Newton

I want this, too, and I don't even have 4 kids. I think the challenge is that Ashley wants many disparate services to interact with each other, and right now, those services mostly do not have ways of interacting. But Kevin, as a more seasoned vibe coder, do you feel like you know an approach that could work?

Kevin Roose

Yes. I think we can do this.

Casey Newton

Okay.

Kevin Roose

I don't think it is going to be very straightforward, because as you said, it does require the sort of interoperability of a number of different apps that don't natively work all that well together. But Ashley, I think we can get this done for you, and it is my pledge that we will do our best, because I honestly need this, too. I've only got 1 kid, but I'm telling you, man, the toddler's birthday-party circuit is out of control.

Casey Newton

It never stops.

Kevin Roose

Yeah, it never stops. Kids are always having birthdays, and there are so many of them. Some say no gifts, and some say gifts, and some are at parks, and some are at zoos, and you have to keep track of all of it. My God, how does anyone do this?

Casey Newton

How does anyone do it, and can it be vibe coded?

Kevin Roose

So, for my own sake and for yours, Ashley, I'm going to try to vibe code this app for you. I'll keep you posted.

Casey Newton

And you're going to report back to us.

Kevin Roose

I will.

Casey Newton

Okay. Well, it makes sense if the sort of narrative arc of this show is an AI trying to get you to leave your wife, to you mastering AI to vibe code a wife. That feels like a great sort of season finale for the Hard Fork show.

Kevin Roose

I agree.

Casey Newton

Yeah.

Kevin Roose

I agree.

Casey Newton

Yeah. Well, listen, thanks again to everyone who emailed us. All of the emails delighted us. We feel like you guys really like trying new stuff and showing us what you're trying, and it inspires us, so thank you.

Casey Newton

One more thing before we go this week, Hard Fork is looking for an editor, specifically someone who can take the raw material of what Kevin says and try to make it make sense for the rest of us. So if you think you might have that skill set, please go to nytimes.com/careers and look for the Hard Fork editor job. We'd love to talk to you.

Kevin Roose

Hard Fork is produced by Whitney Jones and Rachel Cohn. We're edited by Rachel Dry. We're fact-checked by Ina Alvarado. Today's show was engineered by Chris Wood. Original music by Sophia Lanman, Diane Wong, and Dan Powell. Our executive producer is Jen Poynt, and our audience editor is Nela Galogly. Video production by Chris Schott, Sawyer Roquet, and Pat Gunther. You can watch this full episode on YouTube at youtube.com/hardfork. Special thanks to Paula Schumann, Puiwing Tam, Dalia Haddad, and Jeffrey Miranda. You can email us, as always, at hardfork@nytimes.com. And if you happen to be in Austin, Texas, for South by Southwest this weekend or early next week, Casey and I will be there. Catch us around town. Say hi.

Casey Newton

Say hi.

Kevin Roose

Let's get some tacos.

Casey Newton

Let's vibe code.