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Sourcery · · 48 分钟

Eclipse 的 Lior Susan:125亿美元管理资产规模与押注实体产业

Molly O'SheaLior Susan

创投/私募半导体能源投资企业经营
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TL;DR
  • Eclipse 的核心押注是,创投最大的机会在实体经济——约占全球 GDP 的85%,规模约100万亿美元。 Lior Susan 认为,制造、能源、国防、运输、航运、采矿和半导体行业长期被忽视,而资本持续涌入软件。如今,去全球化、供应链脆弱性、政府支持和客户需求共同创造了“人类历史上重新打造这些产业的最佳时机”。

  • Eclipse 通过成为“带着资本的运营者”,而非被动的创投机构,已将管理资产规模做到约125亿美元。 Eclipse 约有90家被投公司,并帮助其中30家完成创建;最近完成的2只基金募资总额为13亿美元。实体公司需要在资本开支、制造、供应链、政策、补贴、债务、招聘和系统工程等方面获得运营支持,因为执行不佳会直接反映在良率上,不能靠“假装成功直到真的成功”蒙混过关。

  • 尽管创建公司是 Eclipse 模式的核心,Susan 仍拒绝公式化孵化。 他说,“没有什么流程”:有些创始人带着想法找到 Eclipse,有些公司则围绕内部形成的产业判断招募团队,而 Rivian 分拆项目在一段文字记录中被称为 Mytra、在其他记录中被称为 Mynd,走的是第三条路径。每家公司都是“独一无二的雪花”,而一再尝试打造可规模化复制的创建体系都以失败告终。

  • 他的估值框架看重市场规模、差异化、团队质量和自由现金流,而不是 headline 毛利率。 Susan 认为,硅谷“用 SaaS 和毛利率是最重要的指标这一套忽悠了全世界”,部分原因在于持续发生的工程投入被计入研发费用,而非销售成本。他将拥挤的软件赛道与 Tesla 十几个百分点的毛利率、Cerebras 约40–50%的毛利率作对比:两者都能获得强劲估值,因为它们解决的是巨大市场中的难题。

  • Eclipse 有意避免按行业框定投资组合。 Susan 说:“我的组合构建就是不做组合构建”;如果有足够 conviction,Eclipse 可能投资5家存储公司,而不是为了覆盖国防、芯片和机器人,强行各投1家。目前的押注集中在半导体产业链、新能源、AI 基础设施“卖铲子”业务和实体 AI,而不是基础模型或 LLM。

  • 实体公司可以通过第二、第三曲线,在产业内部扩大钱包份额,实现复合增长。 Susan 描绘了 Cerebras 从芯片到系统再到数据中心、Redwood Materials 从回收到面向数据中心的大规模储能、SpaceX 从发射业务走向 Starlink 的路径。Eclipse 试图把这些业务连接成一个内部经济体,让一笔交易资金在多家被投公司之间流转后变成“4或5美元”。

  • 这种深度介入也覆盖运营危机,并延伸至更广泛的美国增长论。 一次冷却液泄漏让一家被投数据中心变成“一池水”,Susan 飞往中西部,花72小时协调维修,甚至亲自处理如何在电子设备周围正确烘干混凝土。他认为,工厂、能源、建筑、住房和服务业驱动的实体投资,可能推动美国实现5–7%的年增长:“我们最好别把这个时刻搞砸。”

摘要 · 为研究而整理的核心内容

1. Eclipse 从一开始就是“运营平台+投资资本”

  • Susan 于2015年离开 Flex 后创办 Eclipse,随后在考虑打造实体产业公司的载体时结识 Pierre。Susan 当时31岁,Pierre 85岁;两人首次见面10分钟后,Pierre 就说:“年轻人,我们要一起创办一家机构。” Susan 抗议说,自己连高中都没读完,也从未投过1美元。4个月后,Eclipse 诞生。

  • Pierre 的经历横跨 Fairchild、National Semiconductor 和 Sequoia 的35年。他讲述的是另一种创投文化:运营者主导、出手很少,Sequoia 和 Kleiner 甚至曾互相帮对方挽救公司——与今天那些宣传投资组合“曲线一路向右上方”的电话会相去甚远。

  • Pierre 留下的核心价值观是“纪律、纪律、纪律”。Susan 将其直接与制造业联系起来:“不能靠装作成功直到真的成功”,因为纪律差就会导致良率差。Pierre 还很早就把董事会管理和季度汇报制度化,使 Eclipse 在成立第1年就更像一家运营了10年的公司。

  • 如今,这套基础支撑起约125亿美元管理资产规模,以及最近分布在2只基金中的13亿美元募资。但 Susan 仍拒绝传统标签:Eclipse 是“带着资本的运营者”,团队成员离开产业界,正是为了在实体行业创建公司。

2. 持续打造30家公司,让 Eclipse 保持一线运营能力

  • Susan 认为,对于同时涉及硬件、软件、制造和监管的企业,被动资本远远不够。创始人可能需要在资本开支、供应链、政府关系、补贴、债务与股权融资取舍、工程团队配置,以及完整系统协同方面获得帮助,而不仅是拿到足够的钱去做一个应用。

  • Eclipse 约有90家被投公司,其中约30家由其参与创建,包括 Bright Machines、Bedrock、Mitra Chem、在一段文字记录中被称为 Mytra、在其他记录中被称为 Mynd 的 Rivian 分拆项目,以及 Peak Energy。最初开始孵化公司,部分原因是 Susan “手都开始发抖”,迫不及待想重新做公司;Pierre 起初把门关上,还花了1个小时教训他要有纪律,最后才同意投资人也可以创建公司。

  • 对于方法论,Susan 的诚实回答是:“没有什么流程。”创始人可能带着一个新的 HBM memory 概念找上 Eclipse;Eclipse 也可能先发现异构 AI 的机会,再招募团队;或者从现有企业中分拆技术。“每次我试图围绕它建立一套体系,都会失败。”

  • 创建公司也是投资人保持运营知识新鲜的方式。Susan 认为,运营者离开一线执行10年后就会变得过时——与技术、人才、客户和人脉网络逐渐脱节——除非机构继续直接参与公司的创建。

3. Rivian 分拆案例:公司创建如何释放人才、资本与中立性

  • 这家公司源于与 RJ 围绕通用制造机器人的约3年讨论。双方的设计判断很明确:机器人应当具备移动能力和高度灵活性,不必长得像人,同时需要大量数据训练模型。

  • Susan 得知 Rivian 内部已经有一个小团队后,在一次机器人行业晚宴上边喝酒边提出分拆。独立运营可以吸引那些不愿在 Rivian 内部处理这一问题的人才,引入外部资本而不是占用 Rivian 的资产负债表,还能打造一个能够服务所有制造商的“瑞士”。

  • 随后,Eclipse、Rivian 和 RJ 共同完成了公司分拆。Susan 说公司进展“飞快”,计划在当年展示首款产品;这是一条由关系驱动的公司创建路径,很难压缩成一套孵化模板。

4. 实体经济论来自中国,但来得比预期晚

  • 在中国生活1年后,Susan 认识到,中国约20万亿美元的经济体是通过5股力量的协同建立起来的:人才、政策、资本、技术和客户需求。一家孤立的西方公司很难对抗这种协调运转的飞轮;Eclipse 的做法,就是尝试在公司层面重现其中一部分协同。

  • Susan 原本预计,去全球化会迫使各国重建本土能源、制造和国防能力,但他承认自己误判了时间表。这一转变耗时比预期更久;直到 COVID 明确暴露供应链脆弱性,本土化建设才开始加速。

  • 他的市场规模论非常直接:实体世界约占全球 GDP 的85%,规模约100万亿美元。仅金属制造就是一个3万亿美元的行业,但 Eclipse 刚成立时,Susan 猜测大量资本正流向企业软件,投入金属制造的资本可能为零。

  • Molly O’Shea 提出的挑战是,如今一批突然热衷这些行业的“观光客 VC”也开始宣称要投资它们。Susan 的回答强调了工作的难度:打造一家实体公司,就像“500架飞机必须全部完美着陆”,从晶圆、冷板到 PCBA、完整系统、内核软件、客户和量产良率,每一环都不能出错。

5. 自由现金流比软件行业的高毛利率叙事更重要

  • 针对 O’Shea 所说实体企业无法获得 SaaS 倍数的担忧,Susan 认为它们可能做得更好。他说:“我们某种程度上用 SaaS 和毛利率最重要这套说法忽悠了全世界”;一家真正的上市公司最终看的是自由现金流和每股收益,毛利率只是一个指标。

  • 他的批评部分针对会计处理:许多 SaaS 公司通过持续招聘工程师维持增长,但这笔支出被计入研发费用而非销售成本。因此,一家公司可能报告85%的毛利率,但增长仍与现金消耗高度相关。

  • Susan 更关注3个问题:市场有多大?产品有多大差异化?团队有没有解决难题的能力?他认为200亿美元还不够大,猜测全新的 CRM 市场规模约为300亿美元,并指出 CRM 领域大约有1,000家公司竞争。

  • Tesla 的毛利率只有十几个百分点,却可以获得类似头部软件公司的交易估值;Susan 将 Cerebras 的毛利率放在约40–50%,它也可以比许多 SaaS 公司获得更高估值。他的解释不是毛利率足够“纯”,而是公司在一个巨大市场中解决了“一个真正棘手的问题”,客户愿意为此付费。

6. Eclipse 押注产业集群,而非预设行业清单

  • 当机构 LP 问起投资组合构建时,Susan 的回答始终一样:“我的组合构建就是不做组合构建。”如果 conviction 足够,Eclipse 可以投资5家存储公司;他拒绝仅仅为了让组合声称覆盖某个行业,就各收购1家国防、芯片或机器人公司。

  • 半导体最能体现这种集群打法。芯片之外还有资本设备、测试、光刻、封装、供应链和各种子组件。HBM memory 集中在 Micron、SK Hynix 和 Samsung 手中,而软件行业有数千家竞争者;这种反差既说明了壁垒,也说明了 Eclipse 认为自身运营能力可以介入的机会。

  • 能源也是一个集群:The Nuclear Company、Peak Energy 的钠离子电池业务、覆盖 LFP 和回收的 Redwood Materials,以及一家尚未公布、目标是与现有巨头竞争的现代燃气轮机公司。Eclipse 同时从两端切入 AI——AI 基础设施的“卖铲子”业务和实体 AI 应用——但避开基础模型和 LLM。

  • Susan 不对宏观时点作判断:“我对泡沫、估值之类一无所知。我只知道怎么创建公司。”他的 conviction 更窄,却是绝对的:从创建公司的工作本身看,仍然“有太多东西要建”。

7. 第二曲线与内部经济体,可以放大实体平台

  • Eclipse 最初曾怀疑,Redwood Materials 的回收市场是否足够大。下一条曲线改变了这一判断:随着 CATL 和其他中国供应商开始被禁止向“我们的电网”销售储能设备,Redwood 可以把回收电池重新制造成面向数据中心的大规模储能系统。Eclipse 随后领投了一轮大额融资,前 Tesla CFO Deepak 也加入 Redwood——“这支乐队算是又聚齐了一点”。

  • Susan 反复看到类似的扩张路径:Cerebras 从芯片走向系统再走向数据中心;Redwood 从回收走向储能;SpaceX 从发射走向 Starlink;True Anomaly 则从太空防御态势感知走向 Golden Dome 和更垂直整合的项目。成功的实体平台可以不断引入新业务,扩大客户钱包份额。

  • Susan 表示,被投公司在上一年度签署的商业协议规模约为400–500亿美元,其中包括一些规模达到数百亿美元的交易。这种规模让客户选择变得关键:“你相当于和一个非常大的鲸鱼客户结婚了”,尽管这些公司除了最大客户之外通常还有多个客户。

  • “Eclipse 经济体”连接起芯片、自动化服务器制造、Oxide 基于 CPU 的本地机架、数据中心、核能、钠离子电池、锂离子电池、燃气轮机和实体 AI。把一笔大订单通过其中3或4家公司落地,可以让“1美元”变成“4或5美元”;而看到燃气轮机长达5年的交付周期,也直接促使 Eclipse 创建了一家新供应商。

8. 一线执行与全国增长,补完整体论点

  • Oxide 起步于一个判断:安全性、延迟和成本会让部分计算继续留在本地,同时客户仍希望获得类似云服务的工具。Eclipse 没有预见 AI 会成为催化剂——“在这个行业,走运很重要”——但 Susan 表示,Oxide 现在已经有多个客户贡献上千万美元级别的业务。

  • 运营承诺在故障发生时会变成现实。一次冷却液泄漏让一家被投数据中心看起来像“一池水”,Susan 飞往中西部,在那里待了72小时,调动服务商、安排新的安装和 HVAC 系统,还了解到混凝土中的水分会如何损坏电子设备。“我不需要勋章,”面对感激的创始人,他说,“你只需要在现场和他们站在一起。”

  • Susan 将这种本能追溯到自己离开高中后,16岁那年夏天在以色列一家香蕉农场工作。工人每天要处理约200串、每串约60磅的香蕉,他还学会了焊接,用来维修包装作业所使用的金属吊机。尽管天气炎热,那段经历让他意识到:“我需要做一个实体的东西。这就是我要做的事。”

  • 他最后的宏观判断是,一座位于 Nebraska 的数据中心可以创造数千个就业岗位,进而带动能源、建筑、材料、住房、餐饮和服务业。随着资本、人才、政策支持、需求和技术形成协同,Susan 认为美国有可能实现5–7%的年增长;他还把此前与 Henry Ford 和 Carnegie 的类比改口为:“这是这个国家历史上创建公司的最佳时机。”

完整逐字稿
Molly O'Shea

You want to back startups that make actual physical stuff.

Lior Susan

The firm is at $12.5 billion in AUM, which might have changed already. I'm not sure.

Molly O'Shea

I hope it's changed—to the upside.

Lior Susan

We just named 2 IPOs, both in physical industries: Cerebras, which we did, and SpaceX. Both are doing extremely well. What you cannot fight against is that roughly 85% of the world's GDP—roughly $100 trillion—is in the physical world.

Molly O'Shea

You're an experienced banana farmer.

Lior Susan

That's probably my number-one achievement in life.

Molly O'Shea

What were the biggest lessons that you learned from banana farming?

Lior Susan

It is hot in summer, but it was also the first time I thought, “I need to build physical things. This is my thing.”

Eclipse has 90 companies total today. We built the majority of them. There are some amazing companies like Bright Machines, Bedrock, and Mitra, and a bunch that we haven't announced yet. We never thought of ourselves as a venture capital firm. We call it “operators with capital” because we are operators.

Molly O'Shea

All right. Lior, welcome to Sorcery.

Lior Susan

Thank you. Great to be here.

Molly O'Shea

Eclipse is on a run. Cerebras had a huge IPO.

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

The firm is at $12.5 billion in AUM, which might have changed already. I'm not sure.

Lior Susan

Yeah. I hope it's changed—to the upside. Yes.

Molly O'Shea

For people who don't know Eclipse—

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

Can you give a little bit of the background?

Lior Susan

Yeah. I think the short story is that we started the firm 11 years ago. I know that our limited partners count us as venture capital, but we never thought of ourselves as a venture capital firm. We call it “operators with capital” because we are operators with capital.

We all left industries to go and build a firm that would allow us to build companies in the industries that we're passionate about, and those are physical industries. You're right that maybe in the first 8 years, manufacturing, space, semiconductors, defense, and mining were very much in the corner while software was doing really well—enterprise software, crypto, consumer, and fintech.

It definitely changed in the last 2 years. I couldn't be more excited about the opportunities in the world to build, and it feels like the best founders want to build them. It feels like the world needs more of them. We just named 2 IPOs, both in physical industries: Cerebras, which we did, and SpaceX. They're doing extremely well, so these are exciting times.

Molly O'Shea

Really exciting. We just had Andrew on, and that was a really fun—

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

Interview.

Lior Susan

Yeah. He's funny.

Molly O'Shea

He's great.

Lior Susan

He's—

Molly O'Shea

He's funny.

Lior Susan

He's really funny. Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

He did name, at the end, when I asked, “Who inspires you?”—who are those kinds of people for you?—and he specifically called out Pierre—

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

Your partner. Can you tell me more about Pierre? I know we were talking about this off camera—

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

But this story is insane.

Lior Susan

Yeah. The story is pretty crazy. We were this odd couple in the first 7 years of Eclipse.

I was leaving Flex, and I was thinking about starting a vehicle that would allow me to build and invest in companies in the physical world. I got introduced to Pierre. This was early 2015. I was 31 years old, and Pierre was 85 years old.

We had a meeting, and as always, I hadn't done my homework and didn't know who the guy was. I saw this older-ish person step into the room, wearing a suit and full of cologne, and he said, “Okay, young man, what do you want to talk about?”

I said, “I don't know. I got introduced to you, but I'm thinking about starting a firm or a vehicle that would allow me to build companies in the hardware space.”

In a very Pierre fashion, after 10 minutes, he interrupted me and said, “Okay, young man, we're going to start a firm together.”

I said, “Sir, I actually—A, I didn't finish high school; B, I never invested a dollar in my life. I'm a builder. I know how to build. I'm excited to build companies in these sectors.”

He said, “Hey, I will teach you everything you need to know about that industry.” About 4 months later, Eclipse was born.

Pierre is a special, special man. As I told you off camera, I'm taking him to dinner tomorrow for his 96th birthday, and he's still mentoring most of us on the team.

He worked with us full-time in the office for 7 years and brought a lot of what I think this industry originally was, from when he started at Sequoia. Don was his VP of sales at National Semiconductor, and they left to start Sequoia. Pierre was there for 35 years.

We had the huge privilege of hearing his stories and learning from him about what that industry was originally designed to be. It's actually very different today. They were all operators. They were all hands-on. They did very few deals. They had very gentlemanly relationships between the firms.

He told us so many stories about Sequoia and Kleiner saving companies for each other, something that—

Molly O'Shea

What?

Lior Susan

Can you imagine calling another VC today and saying, “I have an issue with this company. I need you to come put capital in and help me save that company”?

It will never happen. You'd probably get a phone call saying, “All of my companies are doing amazing, up and to the right. Come preempt around.”

Pierre and I were that odd couple. I said on camera on his 95th birthday that, for me, he's somewhere between a father, a partner, a mentor, and a friend—kind of all of the above. He's probably one of the most amazing people I have ever met in my life.

Molly O'Shea

And what kind of work culture did he bring—

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

To Eclipse?

Lior Susan

Yeah. It's—I grew up in the Special Forces. He grew up during World War II. He got himself moved from France to the United States for school, met Gordon Moore, and got into Fairchild. He left Fairchild for National Semiconductor, and left National to start Sequoia.

I say the best 3 values I can think of about Pierre are discipline, discipline, discipline. Where I grew up, discipline was really important, and that also connects nicely to the companies that we like to build in the physical world.

You cannot fake it till you make it when you're manufacturing something, because the yield will just be very bad. He brought a lot of institutional knowledge about investing and managing a board, and how to write your quarterly reports. In some way, in our first year of Eclipse, we already operated in a way that maybe a firm that's been around for 10 years would operate. Everything was much more institutional.

But he also has a huge heart, although he tries to hide it.

Molly O'Shea

Really?

Lior Susan

Yeah. He really cares. You don't need a 90-year-old person to go to the office every day to teach other people how to do venture. You don't.

Molly O'Shea

Yeah. Well, it seems to be working.

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

So you were founded in 2015.

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

You raised your last fund—it was split between 2 funds—about 3 months ago.

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

$1.3 billion.

Lior Susan

Yeah. Mm-hmm.

Molly O'Shea

Okay. I want to go through your investing strategy, because you did say you're operators with capital.

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

It's completely different from the traditional kind of VC game that's happening here in Silicon Valley, because of that hands-on approach.

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

So when you talk about venture equity and this incubation strategy, how does that work, and what are some of the companies that come out of it?

Lior Susan

Yeah. I would say I don't know if that model is perfect for everyone, just to be clear. I do think that companies building in the physical world shouldn't get only passive capital on their board.

You need to know manufacturing and supply chain. You need to know how to deal with CapEx. You need to know how to deal with the government. You need to know how to think about subsidies. You need to know how to leverage debt versus equity.

You need to know how to hire the right engineering team, regardless if it's a mechy, Ws, and how to think about it holistically, because you're building a system. You don't build an app that, if you're a good enough founder, you just take the capital and build a great app, and there is a great outcome.

I also think that if you're looking at the generational change, we started kind of with mobile to cloud. It's like internet to mobile to cloud to SaaS enterprise software. What we've been seeing over the last 10 years is basically this full stack of tech companies taking on a full industry.

Cerebras is taking the compute industry. SpaceX is taking the space industry, and there are a bunch of others. These are much more complex businesses to build, and much bigger if you're successful.

Our model was that we were on the other side as operators, and we thought about what would have been the most optimal things we could have had from our investors in our previous lives. We felt like we just wanted to bring that model: operators on your board, bringing high conviction, a lot of capital, and a lot of expertise and knowledge about how to build those businesses.

That’s the model. On the incubation side, we’re two years into it, and it’s actually also a funny Pierre story. I’m feeling my hands start shaking, and I’m like, “God, I need to build again.” So I go to Pierre, and I say, “Sir, I kind of feel like building a company.” And he shuts the door and says, “Young man, we are investors now. We are not building companies anymore.”

And I’m like, “Can we do both?” And he’s like, “No.” He lectured me for an hour about my lack of discipline, and I was able to convince him. It’s just amazing. I think Eclipse has 90 companies in total today, and 30 of them we built. There are some amazing companies like Bright Machines, Bedrock, Mitra Chem, and Mytra, as well as a bunch that we haven’t announced yet. Peak Energy, which we talked about in the battery space, is also a company that we incubated.

We did it from a selfish point of view because we love building companies, and I didn’t want to stop building companies now that I also have the investor hat. And, B, it’s about keeping our operating skills fresh. When you make the transition from being an operator to being an investor, 10 years into it, you’re not a fresh operator anymore—not in terms of where the technology is, or where the network, talent, or customers are. Building companies keeps us fresh.

Molly O'Shea

What is your process for starting the companies?

Lior Susan

There’s no process.

Molly O'Shea

But how do you pick the categories?

Lior Susan

I don’t think you can manufacture this thing. That’s what I learned in the last 11 years of doing it inside Eclipse, inside the firm. Every time I try to build a system around it, I fail. Every time I think, “If I only put this thing here, I would be able to build 2 more,” I fail.

Each of those things is a snowflake. In some cases, someone comes to us and says, “Hey, I want to build this new HBM memory, and I want to do it with you,” and I’m like, “Amazing.” In some cases, I’m like, “The world is going into heterogeneous AI. If I can connect multiple pieces of silicon and optimize them from the networking to the kernel to the orchestration, I’ll be able to build the most efficient, high-performance, lower-cost AI data centers. There’s no company that exists, so I’m just going to build it and recruit the team.”

And in the case of Rivian and RJ, we carve out Mynd outside of Rivian with him. Those are 3 very different models I just described, and there are 10 more.

Molly O'Shea

Damn. Can you go into one of those companies?

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

Maybe Mynd.

Lior Susan

Yeah. The one thing we really like to build, I think about it as clusters. It’s an industry that we know. A lot of us built robotics in our operating lives, and at Eclipse we’ve been doing robotics and physical AI for a long time, before it was called physical AI.

We’re friends with RJ. G10, one of the founders, one of the partners of the Eclipse, was on the founding team with him. I’ve been talking with RJ for a long time about robotics and manufacturing, and we probably talked for 3 years before we actually started Mytra together. We were talking about general-purpose robotics in the manufacturing landscape. It needs to be mobile. It doesn’t need to look like a human or be humanoid. It needs to have high dexterity, and you need a lot of data in order to train the model.

As we were talking over the years, he said, “You know, we have a small team inside Rivian that’s focusing on that.” We had a robotics dinner at my house with him and a bunch of other founders, and at the end of dinner, the wine helped. I told him, “What do you think about us spinning out this thing?”

He said, “Huh.” And I said, “You can win all the wars. We can attract better talent that won’t necessarily go work on that problem inside Rivian today. We can attract external capital, so it’s not on your balance sheet, and it’s like Switzerland. You can work with everyone.”

Naturally, the rest is history, and we were able to carve it out and start the company with him and Rivian. The company is just flying. We’re really excited to see all of the pieces coming together, and we’re going to show the first product this year.

Molly O'Shea

It’s just so crazy to hear how close to the metal you actually are.

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

I’ve had many conversations with many different CEOs and investors and that sort of thing, but I don’t even know what you said previously, when you were talking about building a data center.

Lior Susan

Yeah, sorry.

Molly O'Shea

I don’t know what you’re saying.

Lior Susan

I went too technical.

Molly O'Shea

But that’s awesome.

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

Taking a step back on the macro scale of things, I talked about this with Andrew on the pod. I talked about this also with Tony Kim of BlackRock.

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

We were going through all the different categories, and it’s a common theme that’s very ever-present between everyone. The original industries that built up Silicon Valley really were in the shadows for decades.

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

And now they’re back again. Now you have—I’m not going to say tourist VCs—but you have a lot of these competitive VCs—

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

—coming in and claiming territory in them.

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

But how—if you’re in the founder’s seat, how do you decipher who to work with and where they actually have expertise?

Lior Susan

The reason I started Eclipse was actually from a fundamental view. It was also on the back of me spending a full year in China and seeing how they innovate in the physical industries.

People don’t know this, but China essentially built a roughly $20 trillion economy based on the physical world. They built the entire system on these 5 forces: talent, policy, capital, technology, and customer demand. They align those 5 forces in a way that lets their economic flywheel fly, and it’s very hard to compete against them as a standalone company.

My view was that if we don’t do it in the Western world, we’re kind of screwed. Of course, it was also from a selfish point of view because I love building these businesses. I was never a software guy; I was always a hardware guy. There’s just no reason not to do it.

After talking with a bunch of firms as I was leaving Flex, it was clear to me that a lot of my generation came much more from the software world. That world sounds very scary to them: low gross margins, high CapEx, and long sales cycles. But that’s what I love doing.

My view was also that as the world is moving more from globalization to deglobalization, countries will not be able to rely on other countries for their energy, manufacturing, and defense. It was clear to me that it was going to happen. I was wrong about the timing—it took much longer than I thought. COVID was really the first thing that showed the vulnerability, and as a result, we started seeing much more onshoring kick in.

What you cannot fight against is that 85% of the world’s GDP—roughly $100 trillion—is in the physical world. If you’re a founder and you’re thinking about the biggest problem you can solve, you think, “What is the largest TAM?” The largest TAM is manufacturing. The largest TAM is energy, defense, transportation, shipping, and mining. Agile software, nothing about all of the agile software people in the world, is just combined less than 20 billion. Vulcan Forums that working on metal manufacturing, metal manufacturing is a $3 trillion industry.

When we started Eclipse, I don’t have the numbers, but my guess is that quite a lot of money was going into enterprise software and probably zero was going into metal manufacturing. It just didn’t make sense to me. That goes back to the question of what founders who are starting companies want to think about.

It’s fucking hard. It’s really hard to build these companies. It takes time, and you have this 500-plane situation where all of them need to land perfectly. That’s what we do. The wafer needs to show up to the cold plate, to the PCBA, to the full system, to the kernel software, to the customers, to get the customers, to get the yield, and everything needs to work perfectly.

It’s really hard to do, but I cannot do anything else in life. That’s the only thing I’m passionate about.

Molly O'Shea

It is interesting. SK Hynix recently—

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

—went public.

Lior Susan

Went public. Yeah. Yep.

Molly O'Shea

And when you look at the memory world, there are literally 3 players.

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

We’ve gone so long with only 3 players, and there’s a massive shortage—

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

—as you would know—

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

—in the chip industry.

Lior Susan

Totally. And that was kind of my point. It was like, “Okay, great: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung,” if you’re looking at HBMs. When I started Eclipse, I was like, it’s really odd because there are 10,000 SaaS companies. How can it be that there are only 3 memory companies?

When you actually go deep, you’re like, “Okay, you need CapEx, you need a lot of engineering, you need the 5 forces I was talking about.” That’s what Eclipse is expert in, and we’re building new memory companies. It feels like the best time in the history of humanity to build those industries again.

Molly O'Shea

So how do you then overlay the venture model on top of these industries? And then how do you refute the thesis—or the pros, I guess—that people say these industries aren’t going to produce SaaS multiples? I know that’s technically flipping now.

Lior Susan

I actually think it’s—we’re going to introduce—

Molly O'Shea

With AI, then—

Lior Susan

—I think it’s better than SaaS multiples.

Molly O'Shea

But could you just explain that?

Lior Susan

Maybe it’s a little bit connected to the “tourist” comment that you made before. I think we, as Silicon Valley and the venture industry overall, kind of bullshitted the world that SaaS and gross margin are the most important metrics.

Naturally, if you are a public company, if you’re a real company, what matters is free cash flow. It’s actually not gross margin. Gross margin is an indicator of potentially what your free cash flow is going to be. You’re going to trade based on that, and EPS is based on your free cash flow.

Naturally, if you tell me you have an 85% gross-margin business and you are, you know, not in agile software, you are sales software now, we're trying to move so they don't think that I have anything really against agile. You're building a new CRM again because there is a million of them. The TAM itself is not huge. My guess is $30 billion. There are 1,000 companies doing CRM.

What happens with a lot of those SaaS companies is that their growth was correlated with the way they were burning money. Why is that? We mechanically moved the engineering spend from what’s supposed to be in COGS in any normal business to R&D. It was an accounting trick, so your gross margin is high, but you still need to continue hiring engineers as the business is growing. In our world, you cannot do it. There is hard COGS, and accounting will not let you.

Maybe your gross margin will not be as high as a SaaS company, but at the end of the day, I’m a fundamental entrepreneur. On a fundamental basis, I always ask 3 questions: How big is the market? $20 billion is not big enough. How differentiated is what you do in that market? And do you have the right team to actually go and solve that really tough problem?

Because Tesla is what—mid-teens? It kind of trades like the best SaaS companies in the world. Cerebras is, like, what it is—I can’t really remember now—40% or 50% gross margin. It trades way better than most of the SaaS companies because they solve a really tough problem in a gigantic market, and they get paid for it. That’s what I do for a living.

Molly O'Shea

So I want to go through some of your portfolio—

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

—because you have some really fun names in there. Cerebras is obviously one of them.

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

You have Ursa Major—

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

—Vulcan Forms, which you mentioned, Bright Machines—

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

—Augury, Skyrise, Oxide, which is really interesting. We should talk about that one.

Lior Susan

Talk about it, yeah.

Molly O'Shea

WAVE, Bedrock, True Anomaly, also very cool.

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

And the same with Redwood Materials—

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

—which is the next one I have, and Arc, The Nuclear Company, Verkada. You also have Anduril on there. But I guess, to start with all of those and the different categories you’re going after, let’s base it off the latest fundraise. Of the physical industries that you’re going after, what are the main categories?

Lior Susan

When you raise money in our world, we raise money from what’s called E&F—endowments and foundations—and pensions, institutional investors. They always have this question in the diligence about portfolio construction.

Molly O'Shea

Yeah.

Lior Susan

I always have the exact same answer: My portfolio construction is not to have a portfolio construction.

The main point here is, we might do 5 memory companies now. That will not be a very good portfolio construction. But people are calling me and saying, “Hey, can you introduce me to Bedrock?” And I’m like, “Okay, why?” They’re like, “We must have a physical AI company in the portfolio.”

I’m like, “I don’t need to have anything. I need to have the companies I’m obsessed with,” unrelated to trying to say, “Oh, I must have 1 defense, 1 chip, 1 robot.” We don’t think like that.

What I think is really interesting in the market right now is that we went really deep historically on semiconductors, and I think people think about semiconductors as chips. That’s kind of what you have. There’s so much around that: capital equipment, testing, lithography, supply chain, packaging, and subcomponents that go into this thing.

That world is really, really big, and it’s growing rapidly. We just talked about SK Hynix as a good example, so we really like it.

We also really like a lot of new types of energy sources. We think that energy is such a gigantic market. We did a play in nuclear, and we have a play in solid ion, like Peak Energy and TNC. We have Redwood in LFP and recycling, and kind of a second act.

We just did a gas-turbine company that’s building a new, modern gas turbine, going to compete directly with GE, Von Ovo on a very large gas turbine. I think, in the energy sector, there’s just a lot to do.

AI is definitely another area. We’re not doing anything in foundational models or LLMs. We kind of catch AI on both sides: picks and shovels for AI, which we do a ton of, and then we take AI to the physical world with physical AI. There is so much to do.

The only thing is, I know nothing about bubbles and valuation and things like that. I only know how to build companies. But I’m telling you, from building, there’s so much to build there.

Molly O'Shea

What are you most excited about?

Lior Susan

I told that to my daughter. She sees all these people coming to our house all day—the people I’m building companies with. She’s 11 years old, but she can take you down on term-sheet negotiation. Dangerous. Dangerous.

She asked me, “What do you think? Which phase are we in building companies?”

Molly O'Shea

Damn.

Lior Susan

Yeah. Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

Wow.

Lior Susan

Yeah. Yeah, yeah. Because she was born into it.

Molly O'Shea

Yeah.

Lior Susan

Our oldest was born—

Molly O'Shea

She’s like, “Dad, how’s the AUM doing?”

Lior Susan

Yeah, exactly. “How are we doing at a DPI level?” Yeah, yeah, yeah. She’s very close to asking that question as well. That’s actually her mom. It’s not her, but this will be her as well.

She was actually born into Eclipse, so she’s exactly the same age as the firm.

Molly O'Shea

Oh, my gosh.

Lior Susan

It’s kind of super cool. We have an Eclipse Kids Day, so every year we take all of the Eclipse kids to visit 2 or 3 of our companies.

Molly O'Shea

Oh, that’s so fun.

Lior Susan

Then we end up at my house with a little pool party, and it’s actually next week. It’s really cool to see the kids looking at how a robot like Mitre moves a pallet, or seeing Reliable, how planes are moving, or seeing Cellaris, how drugs are being manufactured, and then they…

Those kids are asking some really good questions. So she’s knowledgeable. Anyhow, what I told her was, “Listen, we are probably in the most interesting time that humanity has ever had around building. We are at the cutting edge, at the very edge, of building those businesses, and we better not screw up that moment because we have capital, talent, government support, customer demand, and technology.”

I do believe the U.S. can grow 5%, 6%, 7% every year. I’m going to work really hard to see it come true. I think growth, both for companies and countries, solves a lot of problems, because you can spend a lot of time focusing on where to cut spending as a country or as a company, but you can also grow much faster.

I think it’s maybe the first time—I used to say Henry Ford and Carnegie, and I actually changed it to: this is the best time in the history of this country to build companies.

Molly O'Shea

That’s very optimistic.

Lior Susan

Yes. Yes, I know.

Molly O'Shea

That’s good.

Lior Susan

Yes. I’m super optimistic about this country and opportunity.

Molly O'Shea

We just had David Friedberg—

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

—here recording, and he went off the rails on that.

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

You’ll have to listen to that one. I can’t share too much, but—

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

—it was great, and he was also talking about how, for the most part, in America, the economic system is backwards. You should not be getting 40% tax on labor and 15% on capital gains. It should be the opposite.

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

It should be totally the opposite.

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

I do want to go through some of your portfolio companies. Let’s start with Redwood Materials.

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

That’s a really interesting story—

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

—in the energy space. It came from Tesla.

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

How did you guys get involved?

Lior Susan

Yeah. Actually, Joe, one of our partners, worked with JB for a long time and served on the board, and Greg, one of the other partners, ran operations and manufacturing for Tesla for the first 8 years with JB. So we always had a very close relationship with JB and the Redwood team.

They originally started with recycling. We had some questions about how big that market could be on its own, but we always knew they were super talented. Then they started talking with us about energy storage, basically taking the batteries they recycle and rebuilding those batteries for very large-scale energy storage for data centers.

That was also when CATL and the Chinese companies started getting blocked from being able to sell energy storage to our grid. By the way, good idea. We felt like the moment was right, and we went out and led a very large round there.

We love working with JB and the team. Recently, we’ve actually had other friends join the company. We brought in Deepak as the CFO; he was the CFO of Tesla for many years. So the band is back together a little bit there, and it’s really exciting.

Second act and third act. The first act for Cerebras was to build a chip. Our second act was to build a system, and our third act is to build the data centers that run those things. For Redwood, the first act was recycling. The second act was taking that and selling it as energy storage.

SpaceX’s first act was launch; the second act, naturally, was Starlink. True Anomaly’s first act was space defense awareness; the second act is Golden Dome and other programs that are much more vertically integrated. When you build something in the physical world, if you’re successful, you have the ability to introduce multiple new businesses that will grow your wallet share in that sector.

Molly O'Shea

Most of these come back to AI and data centers, to your point before.

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

How do you think about customer differentiation, like the moats and the long-term durability? Or are you just focused on building them now and servicing those customers? How do you think about that dependency?

Lior Susan

Naturally, in the sectors we operate in, there are no $10,000 ACVs. This is not that kind of business. Last year, we signed many tens—I think roughly $40 billion or $50 billion—in commercial deals across the portfolio. These are very large deals. Some of them were double-digit billions.

Of course you care who the customers are, because you’re married to a very large whale partner, and you want to make sure that the customers will do well. But we talked a little bit about Oxide. What Oxide is building is an on-prem CPU-based rack that gives you a software-based approach to on-prem. You feel like you operate in the cloud world from a tools perspective, but you’re actually running it on-prem.

Our view when starting the company was that not everything is going to move to the cloud. There are a lot of industries that will still want to do on-prem for security, latency, and cost. We didn’t know AI would be a thing, to be clear. Getting lucky is important in this business. We’re trying to get lucky as much as we can.

That business is growing so fast, and it’s not just 1, 2, or 3 customers. They have multiple customers doing double-digit millions of dollars, and they have one customers that are doing many hundreds of billions. This is actually very typical for us to see in our portfolio.

You have a whale account that will do many hundreds of millions of dollars in a deal, or TCV, and then you have multiple other customers in the tens or hundreds of millions of dollars. We’re trying to move as fast as our customers are moving.

Molly O'Shea

Yeah, it is interesting that on-prem is coming back—

Lior Susan

Yes.

Molly O'Shea

—into fashion after so many years of large legacy financial institutions and people like that fighting it—

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

—fighting cloud salespeople, really.

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

Now their time is back to prove everyone wrong about on-prem. AI sovereignty was in the AI Act and the AI Action Plan, and then it reemerged when Karp was talking about tokens specifically for models and that kind of dependency.

For the most part, owning the stack and, especially in the U.S., owning the manufacturing, the infrastructure, and everything that’s being built for the models—it’s obvious.

Lior Susan

Yeah. We actually helped write a little bit of the AI Act and collaborated with the administration on that, and we call it the Eclipse economy.

If you’re looking at AI infrastructure overall, we have companies building chips, manufacturing racks—the automation to build those AI servers—taking those servers and building racks and CPUs, like Oxides, building the data centers and running them, like this new company we haven’t announced yet that I was referring to, and building the energy sources for those data centers, from nuclear to sodium-ion, lithium-ion, and gas turbines. Soon, we’ll announce another energy storage company at scale.

On top of it, of course, they all apply AI and physical AI that will take whatever those data centers produce and use it in manufacturing and robotics. That Eclipse economy is giving us, I believe, an interesting view because we are, in some way, competing with China in our own way. We’re not a country; we’re a firm. But we are, like—

Molly O'Shea

Yeah.

Lior Susan

—we do 1 very large deal, and we sell the deal with 3 or 4 portfolio companies. Essentially, $1 becomes $4 or $5 because we’re leveraging multiple companies.

Because we’re so involved in those companies, we can shape how those very large deals happen or how the policy happens. I really enjoy doing that, first, because it’s helping us and helping companies like Cerebras grow much faster. But the other thing is that it’s giving us new ideas about what else we should build.

That gas turbine is a great example. We saw that gas turbine lead times were insane—5 years. All the companies were fully backlogged, and we thought, “We’re actually deploying a lot of them. We should build a modern company to make gas turbines.” So I’m loving it.

Molly O'Shea

Do you get pushback from maintaining and creating your own economy out of it?

Lior Susan

Not yet. If we do, that means we probably did something well.

Molly O'Shea

Yeah, I would imagine.

Lior Susan

I think Elon is having his own little economy, right, between what he’s doing with SpaceX, xAI now together, and Tesla—leveraging all the companies, all the talent, and the entire customer base.

So I actually think it works well. I'm sure he gets pushback, and we'll get pushback.

Molly O'Shea

Is there anything that we haven't covered yet that you're excited to talk about?

Lior Susan

I think probably the only other thing I'll go back to is that I'm pretty optimistic about America. One thing that people don't understand outside of Silicon Valley is that when you build in the physical world, you actually have an impact on the rest of the country. I'm so sick and tired of the pushback on data centers. I think it's so stupid.

Molly O'Shea

Yeah.

Lior Susan

When you build a data center in Nebraska, you create thousands of jobs, and it's a circular economy. It's like building a factory. Then you need energy to serve that thing, construction, and materials. Those people need to live, so you need housing and service providers and restaurants. The whole flywheel of the economy is actually kicking in.

That's what China did really, really well. I think it's the first time, maybe in history, that we have an opportunity to do it at scale here in the US, and I'm just really excited about it.

Molly O'Shea

That's amazing. Before we close out, I have 2 more questions. One of them is that you're an experienced banana farmer.

Lior Susan

That's probably my number 1 achievement in life.

Molly O'Shea

What were the biggest lessons that you learned from banana farming?

Lior Susan

Shit, it's hot in the summer. Carrying those things in the summer in that part of Israel is not a fun job.

Molly O'Shea

How many bananas can you carry at once?

Lior Susan

There are 2 people: 1 who does the cutting, and a second person who basically grabs the entire thing. I don't know what the name of that is in English. You probably do a good couple hundred of them a day.

Molly O'Shea

Really?

Lior Susan

This thing weighs 60 pounds. As a young, 16-year-old rebel and high school dropout, it was good discipline to work there in the summer for 2 years and just work on that banana farm. But that's also the first time I did welding.

Molly O'Shea

Welding at the banana farm?

Lior Susan

Yes, because you need to weld those metal cranes that you hang those things on.

Molly O'Shea

Uh-huh.

Lior Susan

Then you take them to the packaging. By the way, welding in the summer on a banana farm is a really bad idea, and it's hot. But it's also the first time I was like, "Hey, I need to build a physical thing. This is my thing."

Molly O'Shea

Mm-hmm. The bananas don't melt in the sun?

Lior Susan

The bananas don't melt. We cut them green, so they're more polished than the yellow ones that you're buying at Trader Joe's. It actually takes a couple of weeks until they show up for you to buy.

Molly O'Shea

Were you thinking at all about, you know, you're well into your career and you've got a large fund now, that you would start a banana farm?

Lior Susan

Would you go back to the roots?

Molly O'Shea

Yeah.

Lior Susan

Actually, no, I'm not thinking about it.

Molly O'Shea

I think there are, like, banana problems.

Lior Susan

There are banana problems. There are banana problems. My funny thing about that that I always say is, if I were very bad at building companies, worst case, my kids are going back to the banana farm. Actually, it was not that bad, so we—

Molly O'Shea

Have you brought them?

Lior Susan

Oh, yeah. They go every summer. My parents still live there, and my sister still lives there in the kibbutz. They go, and it's like, "Hey, Dad works in these banana farms." It's like, go teach them. See how the trees grow, give them a lecture—and they don't care.

Molly O'Shea

To push even further on how you support the portfolio companies, what are the war stories in the trenches there? How are you not just helping out with go-to-market?

Lior Susan

We work alongside the teams. We manage a fairly small portfolio, so we can be super hands-on and bring our operating expertise into the day-to-day. I talk with most of our CEOs multiple times on a daily basis.

You get a lot of kicks in the face in the type of companies that we build. A recent example is a company that we're building right now that's involved in data centers. I get a phone call, and they say, "Hey, we have a pool here rather than a data center." It's basically a massive leak in the water-cooling system of that data center.

I'm putting myself on a plane. Immediately, I'm flying to a place in the Midwest to find the data center that absolutely looks like a pool. It was 72 hours of me pulling together our entire network of service providers, new installations, and new HVAC systems, and figuring out things that I'd never actually done before.

You need to dry concrete in a certain way in order to not have a moisture stain in that concrete that can impact the electronics.

Molly O'Shea

Wow.

Lior Susan

It's a thing. I was there for 72 hours without my family or anything else, just on the floor until that thing got fixed.

One thing for us is that I always get a lot of emails from founders or management teams that we work with saying, "You were so instrumental. Thank you so much. That was heroic." I'm like, "Guys, I don't need medals. I do it because that's what I'm passionate about." When you know how to build these companies, you just must be there with them in the field.

Molly O'Shea

Are they surprised that you go and do this?

Lior Susan

Not anymore.

Molly O'Shea

Not anymore?

Lior Susan

Not anymore. No, not anymore. They're actually expecting me to do it now. There's an expectation: "Lior, by the way, this thing—" I'm like, "Well, it's not a big problem. You should be able to solve it by yourself."

Molly O'Shea

"Our power's out. Please come help."

Lior Susan

Yeah, exactly. Exactly.

Molly O'Shea

You're like, "What?"

Lior Susan

"We ran out of snacks in the kitchen." I'm like, "Okay, that's not a Lior thing to fix."

Molly O'Shea

"How do you reboot the Wi-Fi?"

Lior Susan

Yeah, exactly. Unplug it and plug it back in. Exactly.

Molly O'Shea

That's amazing. Wow. As we close out, I have one final question. It's one of our partner questions. So Sorcery is sponsored by Brex. They're the performance corporate card. Can you believe that? It's amazing.

Lior Susan

Yes.

Molly O'Shea Spending smarter and moving faster. Anyways, so I take this question on performance on the personal side of things. I asked Andrew this, and he said Pierre and some other individuals.

I believe that you're really a subset of the people you surround yourself with—who you're inspired by, who you're mentored by, your friends, your family, those kinds of things. As you set out to build a very successful and ambitious career, you're obviously building over and over again. Who are those people for you?

Lior Susan

Pierre was a huge one for me, but since Andrew stole the thunder, I won't be able to use Pierre. That would suck.

I actually spend quite a lot of time with Sam at OpenAI. I know that there's a bunch of points of view about him and about the company. I actually think he's really special, and I think he's also a really good guy with a good heart and a great builder.

I think a lot of the things that OpenAI did, and other amazing companies like Anthropic, are really important to our ability to build more companies and our ability to shape communities. To see my parents using ChatGPT is unbelievable. So, definitely a source of inspiration for me.

Molly O'Shea

That's amazing.

Lior Susan

Yeah.

Molly O'Shea

I wasn't expecting that one.

Lior Susan

Yeah, yeah.

Molly O'Shea

Maybe you were going to say a robot or something.

I don't know.

Lior Susan

Yeah. One that we are building.

Molly O'Shea

Well, Lior, thank you so much.

Lior Susan

Always a pleasure.

Molly O'Shea

It was such a pleasure. I loved all the stories.

Lior Susan

Thanks for having me.

Molly O'Shea

Hey, it's Molly. If you enjoy our interviews, check out our newsletter, sorcery.vc, where we deliver a once-a-week top deals and tech headlines email, and also go deeper on our podcast interviews. Subscribe to Sorcery today. And don't forget to subscribe to the podcast on YouTube, Spotify, Apple, or wherever you listen. Link in description to sign up.