EasyEats：预测市场、交易建议、100万美元交易及更多 | TG Podcast

Okay, I have an actual take for you real quick. That’s right: bear post real quick. Let’s get bearish real quick, and then we can talk about fun stuff. I was talking to somebody today, and they were asking me what KOLs they should work with. They were like, “Give me a list of the best KOLs that would take a deal, that aren’t too rich, that aren’t going to flood you,” you know?

And I was going through the list, scrolling through my Twitter and all kinds of stuff, seeing mutuals. The list is kind of scary in how small it is. Then I’m sitting here thinking to myself, because people love to do this “downfall of Crypto Twitter” thing—“CT’s over, CT’s dead”—and I’m looking at this list thinking, “Dog, we’re kind of nearing desperate times.”

I don’t know if I agree with “desperate times.” I just think the space is changing, if that makes sense. I think we’re seeing the space mature in a way, because if you look at any other industry—the e-commerce, internet-money space, all that stuff—a lot of those people take deals, just in undisclosed ways. Or, especially in the e-commerce space, a lot of them create products that they shill.

Yeah, yeah.

Those products have monthly subscriptions or courses, which is different because their end goal is to generate recurring revenue. Whereas with Crypto Twitter—and even, did you ever look at TradFi Twitter, like stocks and equity Twitter?

I honestly just follow Sentra.

Yeah, so that’s more in line with Crypto Twitter, but their brand deals are exchanges or apps, or mobile things to do stuff like that. So it’s yes and no, I guess. But, dude, if you remember 2021 or 2022, if you did a partnership or a shill post, you got castrated.

You got killed. I remember when Gainzy was doing Rollbit and shit. Do you remember this?

Clocked. Clocked. Clocked, bro. Clocked. And now people just don’t give a shit. It’s like, whatever, get your bag. Just be upfront about it. Say it’s a partnered post, you know what I mean?

Yep.

At the height of his influence, at the peak of his influence, Hasaka also posted a Rollbit referral. Do you remember that?

For just taking your thumbs and going like this, getting half a mil. And it wasn’t even that bad of a tweet. I don’t think it was just a Rollbit referral link, but I think he got $500,000 minimum.

Yeah, yeah. I think he got a million. It was a Rollbit referral. But, bro, I bet you that Rollbit referral link generated more than $500,000.

Yeah, yeah, for sure. I bet there was a positive ROI on that. Damn. GG.

Well, look, I honestly opened the stream—and this is why I think it’s a good time to do this—talking about how I love crypto. Crypto’s going to win. I couldn’t be more bullish on crypto. I’m long the market right now, but even if we fall off a cliff, crypto is just so inevitable. I don’t need to shill crypto to you.

Made it. Made it.

But the thing I was going to say is that I always tell the stream I’m a vessel to help the audience get smarter and make money, and I feel I have an obligation to bring opportunities to the stream. While I’m super long crypto and think crypto’s going to catch up and outperform, objectively, we just haven’t been playing the best game in town for the last 3 months. We should have been trading stocks.

There are other asymmetric spots in the market that we need to cover, and one of the obvious ones is prediction markets. You’ve been one of the most vocal people talking about them, and I think we talk about them a lot and cover them a lot. The easiest use case for Polymarket is that it’s the new news, right? It’s the better news. It’s the preferred news. It’s better.

But I don’t think a lot of people who use Polymarket are making money trading it. I sent you what I think was my first meaningful trade in a while, and we’ll talk about it a little bit. I wanted to talk about the Polymarket opportunities, edges, and everything else. To start, I’ll let you introduce it a little bit. Congratulations on Polymarket, by the way.

Thank you. Congratulations as well.

How much time, focus, and energy are you spending thinking about how you can make money on these things?

Bro, I haven’t traded a meme coin in months. I went from trading every second of every day—I had whatever platform you use, their version of a pump screener up all day, where you could see everything. I have a 50-inch TV above me with charts on it all day.

When I was doing that, it was just pump-screener stuff all day. Now I use a few different things, but it’s all prediction markets. I have them up all day. I have a constant push of information feeds and stuff like that.

There are countless edges. I know one of the things you and I talked about briefly, and I do want to talk about it, is the liquidity situation.

Uh-huh.

There are pros and cons to it, but if you’re active, you can catch some crazy moves. There are markets I don’t even understand that I make money on. I had a position on the Netherlands election and took Rob Jetten to become the next prime minister simply because I saw volume coming in at around $0.55, and it pushed him from a low of around $0.15 to over $0.50.

I took a position because I thought, “The election is today. With this surge of volume, theoretically, Polymarket hasn’t been wrong. Their hit rate is so high that I’m just going to tail it.” I made a few grand off it and thought, “Okay, this is fine.” But I overtrade. I know I do.

Is your account public?

Yeah. I’m down about $12,000 on the account.

I was going to ask you about your all-time P&L.

I’m down $12,000 right now, I think, because I overtrade. I buy so much dumb shit. That’s my issue, and I should just stick to the markets I’m good at. I mention markets a lot because they’re fun and create good stream content, but I also have other accounts that I use to try different strategies and then bring them over to the main account.

I’ve been trading a lot of the equity markets—up-or-down markets—because I come from an equity background. There are percentages you can capture that are mispriced because of illiquid books. Today, on my public account, I hit Netflix down, Airbnb up, and Palantir down.

On earnings, or just market performance?

Just purely the market.

What went into taking those trades?

When I watched the equity side of things, I saw Bitcoin selling off, the dollar moving up, and the S&P basically trading down about 0.5%. Because of those correlations, you can figure out, “This thing is down 0.5%. The market is most volatile going into the close, which is the last 15 minutes. If the market is going to follow what the dollar is doing, which is going up, equities would go down and tail Bitcoin, which is also going down. The market should have a smaller sell-off. So anything close to flat should end red on the day.”

It was accurate. There is still some skill involved, even though people call it gambling. Palantir was down 0.7%, and you would need a massive green move to put it in the green for the day. You could buy those shares at $0.70, so you had $0.30 of upside, which is roughly a 45% gain on whatever capital you wanted to use, because bids just kept getting put in there. I thought, “Okay, I’m just going to keep buying these on everything under $0.70.”

How much volume have you done on Polymarket all time?

Oh God, I don’t even know where to find it. A decent shitload at this point.

Probably a lot, right?

Yeah, more so recently, because I use it every day. I trade every single day. I’m trading mention markets on earnings, and I’m trading a lot of the equity stuff.

Do you think you can actually make money on the mention markets long term?

Yes.

Really? Consistently?

Dude, there’s this guy, Prediction Market Trader.

I already know him. I watch his shit. He’s great.

He’s good.

Yeah, he’s good. He’s really good, too.

He takes a level of research that’s really good because, like anything, there are consistencies, especially with the president. Trump’s speeches have a consistent hit rate for certain words. That’s why certain mention markets have “million,” “billion,” and “trillion” over 9 times, or Biden at 2-plus times.

Really, what you’re doing is figuring out, based on his last 4 or 5 speeches, whether those words are trending up or trending down. From there, you can find that edge.

A lot of it, too, is like yesterday there was a really tough market. I got cooked on it. When I say cooked, I lost like $500 because I took a bunch of mentions on Trump and the leader of China’s meeting, right? The issue was it had to be a public video or a transcript from their public setting, and they were only public for like a minute and a half. Then they went to a private meeting.

So everything resolved no. Every single thing resolved no. If you had any yeses, you lost. I was pretty yes-heavy because soybean was a word, and the entire trade deal is about soybeans. You know that they talked about it, but it just wasn’t public. What happened today was the announcement came out that China is going to be buying a bunch of soybeans. You know they discussed it. You know that it would have hit if the video was live.

But I should have done a little more research, because this is where prediction markets get interesting. Your edge is how much time you want to put into researching all of those. If I looked at the president’s schedule, he only had 1 hour in that meeting before he had to fly back to the United States. You knew that all of these meetings have a public and a private meeting, and what’s more important is the private meeting. I should have gone no on all of these things, knowing he only had an hour.

Interesting. Did you bet on the handshake?

Yeah, I lost on it because I just tailed a whale.

What did you bet? A couple seconds?

6 to 10 seconds, and it was like 20. These fuckers just sat there like this, bro.

What was the bet that resolved? Was it like 10-plus?

10-plus. 10-plus. It was all because they got the photo. The photo was the big thing. They wanted the picture of these two shaking hands.

Once again, if you sit there and think about it, it’s obviously much easier in hindsight. But overall, there’s just a lot of stuff. Because Polymarket’s on-chain, you can see good traders who are making money. There’s an account called Aubrey D who only trades the Ukraine-Russia war and certain geographical locations of territories being captured by certain dates. They’re up like $70,000. The account is 10 days old.

Clearly, they have some level of edge that most people don’t realize. I tailed them on one trade and it hit. Somebody else talked me out of it on Twitter when they saw my account and were like, “Why are you in this? It’s not going to resolve.” I was like, “All right, I don’t know enough about it.” But I should have just held the other one, because you can find good accounts and copy them.

It’s not like memes. In memes, when they sell, the chart tanks because all the copy traders get out. On prediction markets, it’s a news- or reality-based event that ends, that concludes. Even if they leave, you have an opportunity to either get out near the same price or hold to resolution. The insider game is wicked interesting because there’s something there about it. Because it’s on-chain and the data is public, you can act on it.

Okay, so what I’m trying to figure out is, during fall 2024, there was this new class of so many coin traders that went from not a lot of money to a lot of money. There are a lot of them, right? I wish I had some data on how many wallets turned 4 figures into 6-plus.

Oh, a ton.

I bet you it’s a ridiculous amount.

Yeah, I mean, definitely hundreds of thousands.

The number from 3 figures to 6 is crazy.

Pretty high. There’s quite a few.

Okay, so there’s some survivorship-bias algorithm pushing these things to the top, but I’ve seen quite a few posts. There’s a USDC $25 guy who started with $25 and is at like $50,000 to $60,000. There’s an account called Car that runs—

Car’s my GOAT, bro. I love Car. Car’s my GOAT.

Let me say a couple things. The first thing I like is that this Polymarket prediction-market Twitter is a decent index that there’s something here. It has its own Twitter with its own characters and its own lore, and it’s really fun. I like reading the fucking posts.

If you’re ever just like, “I can’t sleep,” go to a breaking-news market and read the comments. Polymarket comments are the most entertaining I’ve had in so long.

But then there are these main characters being created on Twitter right now. Car is one of them. He was beefing with Doma. Bro, he’s fucking killing it.

Who? Doma?

Yes, Doma. That’s Doma.

No, no, no, there are two.

Oh, okay, okay, right.

There are two. So there’s Doma, and then there’s—God, I might be saying his name wrong. One sec. It’s Dropper. Sorry, Dropper. Car is up all-time $670,000. Last month he’s up $70,000, last week $18,000, and today he’s up $3,000. Absolutely cooking.

Beast. And he runs the Pickfolio platform, which is really cool. His @ is Car on Polymarket—CAR on Polymarket.

I love to trade and I love markets, but I’m more interested in talking about the markets than actually trading. A lot of times I like to bring them on and give me lore. I fucking have a freak for lore. I love the social side. What I’m trying to figure out is how many people are turning 5 figures into 6, 6 into 7. How big is this space of these new traders, actually?

It’s smaller than meme coins. Much smaller. But the thing is, it’s because it’s still in its infancy. There are no trading tools. There’s no edge. These calendar tools for what markets end each day have just come out.

Are you familiar with Bullpen?

Yeah, it’s Ansem’s thing, right?

Yeah. They just gave me access to—I don’t even know if I’m supposed to be talking about it. It’s their Polymarket platform.

Oh, tell me in. Who runs it? Give me a—yeah, send me a Telegram.

I think they might kill me, but one sec. Can I share my screen on this?

Yeah, but I’m not going to be able to see you anymore.

That’s fine. I think we’re going to see more of this. They have this thing that came out, which I’m wicked interested in. Oops, let me— I showed that, but—

So this came out. Can you see it?

Yeah, yeah.

It has a full calendar for what markets are ending each day. The people that want to trade quickly and in the short term can, because one of the bigger issues with any prediction market is that searchability and findability aren’t great. This presents the opportunities to you in a much easier manner with the odds.

You can find markets and see volume and flow in a much easier way, and it’s what I’ve been using. This is normally what I have up: the trending tab. You can see a ton of different stuff on there. Then there’s the activity tab. This is the alpha.

I filter my activity by stuff that’s only less than 80 cents. I can filter by $10,000 buys over 80 cents or under 80 cents. Now, if something has an edge—a market that’s at 55 cents that gets bought by size—I go and research it. This is my edge now. I can find markets that are much more interesting to me.

Even this—$1,000. Who’s putting $1,000 on certain things? These are basically guarantees.

Whoa, whoa, whoa. But with the $10,000-plus, what are you sorting based on?

Right now, there hasn’t been anything on this, which is why it’s very sporadic what happens on it.

What time frame or what markets?

It’s daily, so it’s real time. This is 6 seconds. People are just buying no, up-downs, and stuff like that on Bitcoin or the president.

Can you see that order?

It might be cleared on this, because this is still really early for me. Polymarket has this; they just don’t have filters. Can you see my Polymarket screen here?

Yeah.

3 minutes ago, somebody took the no at 85 cents for Trump to be the first searched. This is the page I started on and really played into.

Exactly, but it’s size.

It’s size—big size that you’re tracking. There are $100,000 positions on here, too. Sometimes $100,000 is a lot of 99-cent-plus positions, if it even parses the data. $10,000 is the sweet number I’ve found to get an edge.

Now you’ll see a market pop up where it’s like, “Okay.” Even with sports, I look at these guys with P&Ls and what they’re taking. This person just hammered the Ravens at 51 cents, and they have a $652,000 profit and loss and $1,000,000 in positions. They’re usually a good sports gambler.

There are ways that you can find edges to tail somebody or figure out if there is an edge. That’s why I think the on-chain aspect is the most valuable aspect of a prediction market. Coming from crypto into this market, you’re familiar with it. You know how to navigate it. The average user doesn’t.

I like that Bullpen app. This is fucking sick. It’s like a new game to really follow, a new platform to look into. You can figure out what’s ending on what day, see if there are skewed odds, and all that fun stuff.

I have a few. The thing is, there’s only a decent Telegram bot right now to track them.

What’s the bot?

I think it’s called Polybot or something like that. I’ll find it and send it to you. There are a few of them. There are like 6 or 7 that you can use, and they all do the same thing.

I’m pushing these guys to build one for this, so that you can just add it, similar to MemeScope or Photon, BullX, Rythm, whatever, just to track wallets.

No, it’s not, because that’s going to be the next game: how do we track the smart money and do it that way? You know what I mean? That’s the thing here. Sorry, I stopped streaming. I took it off.

That’s the thing here where I’m like, okay, it’s still in such an infant state that products are still being built. For me, I’m like, okay, now how do I start to find these edges in these products and use them to gain an edge and make money on it? That’s the big thing.

It was the same thing with memes. How do you find these opportunities, see who’s buying what, when, and where, and act on that?

Whoa, that was sick, what you just showed me.

Yeah, they’re probably going to yell at me because I just got access to it. I’ll put you in touch. But that’s my edge right now: I can see what’s ending when, see all the wallets, see who has size, check the accounts, check the activity tab, and just dominate from that perspective, where I have filters that general users don’t have.

My edge is that all the information gets sent basically to me, so now I can do that in a second step and save a ton of time and energy.

Whoa. How many markets are you trading?

A ton.

At any given time?

It really depends. For me, I mostly like the finance markets and mention markets.

Okay.

The equity markets and mention markets. Some of the news markets I like to do.

How much is that market trader guy up all time?

About $60,000.

$60,000, starting from what?

I want to say 10.

And how long?

Maybe a few months.

$50,000 profit?

Yeah, he started a few months ago. It’s a slower game. You have to be comfortable with a slower game because stuff doesn’t run to a $1 million market cap and you can’t exit in a couple of hours.

Yeah, but in this market, $50,000 feels pretty—

Yeah, $50,000 is good, especially for that.

All this stuff is in stablecoins. When Bitcoin sells off, your bag is still $50,000.

Yeah, yeah.

Whoa. He’s good. I like him a lot. But yeah, back to your question: you’re mostly trading finance stuff and mention markets.

Mention markets purely for the content. They’re just fun.

Yeah, they’re good for content.

That’s why. I like to stream FOMC and I watch it anyway. Why not throw some money on it and enjoy it? It gives me a sense of sports.

Outside of that, the culture markets are fun, but there are so many insiders on them, which is really tough.

Yeah, and there’s so little liquidity.

Yeah. If you started seeing a whale buy “Taylor Swift pregnant before X date,” you should just tail it. You should just tail it.

Yeah, you just tail it.

There’s stuff like that. The tech earnings are fun, and tech stuff like Gemini release-date markets. Truthfully, the tech markets have the most insiders by far.

Do you feel like you have an edge on these tech finance ones at all?

No.

No, right?

I just like the up-down markets because they’re basically zero-DTE options.

Yes.

They’re always mispriced. You’re not trading against a bank; you’re trading against a person.

Okay. How do you know the liquidity is that deep? You can get good fills at good ranges. How are you determining what the proper price should be? Are you just going by gut feeling? What are you using for that?

Because I have some level of equity background, a lot of it comes from looking at the percentage drop, what caused the drop in the morning, and where the market is trading midday.

I don’t enter these positions until 1 or 2 p.m. to hold until 4:00 because I want to see where the market’s trading and let the market have a move.

It’s really tough right now because everything is news-based because of the government shutdown. There’s no data. That’s why Bitcoin is dumping and running and dumping, and then a trade announcement comes out and it pumps. There’s just no data right now.

Interesting. What’s your biggest one-trade win?

Biggest trade win? There used to be a way to check your account to show it. I got it. $5,000.

Okay.

It wasn’t crazy because I only started with $5,000 in the account, and then obviously I reloaded. I don’t even remember what I traded that on. If Curtis Sliwa drops out, that’ll be my biggest win.

Okay, what’s your thesis on that?

He’s getting heavy pushback. He has until November 3rd. I thought he would have dropped out already. His odds have only gone down.

He’s being offered a ton of money. He keeps saying he won’t, but the same thing happened with Eric Adams. He kept saying he wouldn’t, and then he did, obviously.

I just lean toward the likelihood of a Cuomo versus Zoran election without a third party being much higher than with a third party. I think Sliwa is just doing it right now.

Oh, my highest win was MrBeast raising $40 million for clean water by August 31st.

That was a good one.

Yeah, that was a no-brainer. I had a full thesis on it.

What did you say? You made $5,000 on that?

Yeah. I put in 10 at 60 cents and sold it at like 93 cents just before.

Nice. What did you think of all the Bill Ackman–Zoran stuff? Did you see that?

I saw it. I’ve been following it. I’ve been seeing it pretty heavily. He’s very outspoken and does not want Zoran in at all.

Did you bet on Cuomo?

No.

No?

I’ve been leaning toward taking Cuomo at $0.10 or $0.11 for a move up to $0.20, just to catch it, because that’s the other side of this, bro. A $0.10 to $0.20 move is a 100% gain. You can get out. You can sell it.

A lot of the stuff people forget about is that with these markets, you don’t need to hold to resolution. You can sell it anytime. That’s the edge a lot of people don’t realize: a mispriced market doesn’t mean it has to win. It just means that the market is underpricing or overpricing something against its counterparty.

What’s your comms strategy for talking to other traders? How often do you do that?

I’m in chats, but truthfully, bro, you don’t really need a comms strategy. It’s not like memes.

Yeah, yeah.

What you need is a Bloomberg Terminal or something like I showed you that will give you information really quickly. There’s another product called Tremor that gives you real-time newsfeed updates, and I know Bullpen is building something similar.

Tremor, you said?

Just search “Tremor Polymarket” and it pops up. I can give you the exact @ in a second. I’ll put it in the—

Here it is: tremor.live is the website. It gives you news feeds in real time with the associated markets attached to them. That’s your comms, you know what I mean?

This is sick.

“Wormhole to the richest and densest source of human information.” There’s stuff that you can do, but once again, the market’s not optimized.

It feels like meme coins in 2022. When Pepe launched, you had to buy it on Dexscreener or Uniswap.

The biggest pushback I see from a lot of the pro traders who want to come trade is that it’s really hard to get fills on some of these things.

Like I said, I traded this market: “Will Bitcoin drop below $100,000 before 2026?” I hammered “No” at about $0.36. I put $10,000 in to market-buy it and had about 10% price impact, which is like buying 2% of a share at $100,000.

I put in as much as I could in the market, which was maybe $3,000—a 30% position—and the rest was in limits. The Bitcoin “No” got filled really quickly.

What’s your take on liquidity for whales on prediction markets, and how big of a problem is that?

I want more liquidity, absolutely. It’s something they should have been incentivizing: liquidity for dominant markets.

Too much liquidity, and you’re going to have mercenary farmers who are just farming rewards, and there’s no actual liquidity. It’ll start skewing this whole “source of truth” narrative that’s accurate.

Yes.

I do want more liquidity because it incentivizes more users and bigger players into the space. Certain markets need it, and certain markets have it.

Sports markets, if you watch a sports market on Thursday, Saturday, or Sunday for football, have deep liquidity. There are hundreds of thousands of dollars on the line until something happens.

Whoa.

And it moves really quickly. You can tell it’s automated. But at the same time, even these crypto markets have short-term 15-minute markets and stuff like that that are constantly liquid. They have tons of liquidity on them.

Some of the bigger markets have pros and cons. I want more liquidity for a lot of this stuff, but then you also have to be aware of your counterparty. By placing a limit, someone who fills it is a real human. It’s peer-to-peer. It’s a true peer-to-peer market.

For me, these short-term traders are going to struggle with prediction markets because it’s not “buy something and sell it for 400%.” It’s “buy something, have a thesis, and let the thesis play out.”

It really rewards researchers, conviction traders, and slower movers who establish that stuff. If you scroll through Dommer [?], Dropper [?], or Carr [?], the 3 most profitable, biggest names, you see how they trade.

A lot of them won’t hold to resolution, but their trades are almost religiously limit orders. Almost religiously limit orders.

You have to be comfortable with taking a position and letting it get there—or not.

So it's a huge patience game. You're not waiting for power to buy and then you're just out. No, there's no “gate candle.” There's none of that.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. But you can front-run some stuff and hit big. When they announced Bad Bunny for the Super Bowl, you could buy Bad Bunny shares up until the NFL announcement—up until a second before it went live—at around 40 cents.

Whoa. I did. I think I made $3,500. What was your—

The best part was that somebody posted the night before, “Bad Bunny announced tomorrow, Thursday Night Football, whatever, whatever. That's the announcement.” I was like, “Okay, I'll take a flyer on this.” I saw some big buys coming in when he was around 20 cents, which pushed it to 40, and I was like, “I'm just going to full-port this,” because it seemed like these brand-new wallets already knew. Sure enough, the announcement hit, and I sold at 99 cents within a few minutes. Whoa, that's a sick trade.

The Eric Adams one, I was pissed because somebody posted it afterward. This reporter tweeted, “Eric Adams is dropping out in the next 30 minutes,” and the market moved 5%, and that's it. They front-ran the official Eric Adams dropout by 30 minutes, and you could have gotten filled on unlimited size. Unlimited size.

Damn, that's crazy. If there was a bunch of liquidity, that probably would have shifted the second the news broke or got leaked. But this just gave you an edge. It's where you're sourcing information and how you're acting on it, which I think is really interesting.

Yeah, so you kind of answered this already, but one of the things I wanted to ask more directly is: What are the best, most profitable traders doing to make the most money? That's something I'm always curious about.

Limit orders. Limit sells. And finding a niche that works for you. Dropper is big on mentions, Carr is big on news, geopolitical situations, and elections. Doma is just the best trader.

Everything. Everything. But it's his research. He's the go-to. That is my actual edge. His research is the thing that gives me the edge, right? Who else was calling election offices to see who the vice president was going to be? Sicko. Absolute sicko.

But it's how badly you want to win. It's all about the effort that you put in, and I think that's why I'm so fascinated by these markets. You can find an edge in the market for everybody.

Did you watch the stream? Dude, it was so good. It was this younger dude who had been to 6 or 7 Taylor Swift concerts in the last 3 years and ended up giga-printing. He said the lowest-streamed song would hold the top 12 spots, and the total number of streams got into 3 million-plus streams at around 3 cents. If you do the math, it's a 33x.

Dude, he hit everything. Everything. It was nuts. They missed a couple of small mentions in songs, and that was it. It was unreal. But there are people who are diehard fans who don't realize these markets exist.

From a content background, I want to keep posting content about prediction markets because the total addressable market is the entire world. There's a market for every human being, and I'm already seeing it. My followers are more people with regular faces versus PFPs of NFTs.

Oh, interesting. Do you think you're growing because of it?

100%. I was stagnant for a while.

On prediction markets?

My morning stream is still crypto and other stuff, but I'll take a higher-level approach. I talk about everything going on for 30 or 40 minutes. It's a very quick recap morning stream. I think of it like when I was a kid, I would throw on SportsCenter and cover everything in 30 or 40 minutes. That's what I do now.

I'll do a mention-market stream, and that's purely prediction markets. Almost all my content is about prediction markets because it's what I'm so curious about. I just think it's so much more interesting than other stuff. Even MegaETH, bro, I was trading the MegaETH market.

You do? I took under $1.8 billion raised with some good size and hit on that. Then I lost this morning because I thought they'd hit $1.4 billion.

Why did you take under?

The math around it was basically that you needed almost everybody to put in the max allocation, and I was like, “Not everyone's going to do this,” especially U.S. participants who have a 1-year lockup. The math just wasn't there for all those people.

On day 1, I knew that the market would be underpricing a lot of it, and it would tank going into day 2 because the majority of the volume is on day 1 and day 3. So I wanted to sell it in the middle, which I did.

Huh. What were the odds?

Dude, I think I got a crazy fill on it. I can check. My fill was—I have to scroll because I've been hammering stuff the last few days. One minute. Under—

Oh, yeah. I took over $1 billion committed and then under $1.8 billion. I got filled at 68 cents.

On each?

Over $1.8 billion, I took the No at 68, and over $1 billion I got filled at around 86.

Huh. So, yeah, this is what I was going to ask you. I'm trying to figure out if the crypto markets are more interesting than just trading the coins. The MegaETH thing is a little bit unique. I'm trying to figure out, as I go deeper into this, how interested I am in actually trading crypto markets versus just trading crypto and then trading other markets.

I like the other markets better, dude. You enjoy the culture side of stuff. You like sports. You're familiar with tech. You're familiar with finance. This show is about internet money. There are going to be finance markets that are interesting to your audience that I think you could really capitalize on. Seriously capitalize on.

Interesting. There definitely are some spots on some of these crypto things where you can make money, because there's unique—

Oh, for sure. Will Zcash flip Monero by December 31st? I think it's this. It has no volume. $150,000 in volume, though.

I'm a shorter-term trader, and I know that. So I would rather trade stuff that ends the same week, a day, or a couple of days, versus stuff that ends at the end of the year.

Got it. Yeah, holding out to the end of the year is tough. It's also good to hedge, though. Think about that right now. For you, would it make sense with your Bitcoin position, instead of selling it at $100,000, to do the opposite of the trade you took and take Yes that it will go under $100,000?

Yeah, obviously I'm [__] though, right? Aren't we all? There's a reason I'm betting—

I've actually heard a bunch of people tell me this, and I think it's one of my favorite takes: The real value proposition in prediction markets is as a hedge to your liquid spot positions.

You're going to see it with earnings markets as they continue to scale. An equity company or a fund that has a lot of stake in a company can take the opposite side to cover the entire downside risk. The entire downside.

And then they miss earnings. If I had call options on Roblox, for example, and they had to beat earnings, would it make sense for me to take the No on earnings and protect that downside risk when Yes was trading at 98 cents?

I can basically take a position that's going to give me an insane return and cover the entire cost of my options that will expire worthless, and my options will not pay shit. So now you're riding an options play risk-free with crazy upside if it ends.

You know what I mean? That, to me, is one of the most interesting use cases here: to hedge everything.

Yeah, that's a big part of it, and I think to your point, you're going to see more liquidity as these markets continue to get more mainstream. I think of the Polymarket U.S. app that's coming out. That's going to open up a ton of opportunities.

You do see it with Kalshi, obviously, but they have fees, so it makes it more difficult because now you have to account for a fee. Polymarket having zero fees gives you the opportunity to hedge at no cost.

That's insane. Literally zero cost. Also, dude, these 15-minute markets are insane. I've been ripping them the entire stream.

Have you really? You're just firing? What are you in right now?

I'm on Solana Up right now, and I got in at 70 cents. It's about to finish, and I'm about to hit. I think I've hit my last 6.

Damn, this is a movie. I was hitting it with 50 seconds left. It's got to stay at 25 or 26 cents. Up is going to hit.

Dude, they're fun. They're really [__] fun. Oh, shit, it's going to be really close now. 16 cents. Let me try to pull it up. Let's see if it hits.

Polymarket crypto.

They're fun, though. I hit an ETH Up, hit a SOL Down, and hit a few SOL Ups. But it's the same with equities. Those markets are more fun, especially as a crypto user.

Up or down? To beat you, did you go Up or Down?

Right now, I'm out. It just ended. I haven't taken one for the next candle. I would probably take the highest for this one—

Up. This one I'm Up. Yeah, I have Up. Damn, this is crazy, actually. It's fun. This is just like—

Perps, though? Why would you trade this over perps? It's not. You should just trade perps.

Yeah, I'm just kind of playing around with these markets.

The counterargument against perps is that your liquidation is just the capital you put in. There’s no cross margin.

Uh-huh.

The other side of it, though, is that if you’re bullish, you can get into a candle when the trend is up and ride it for a 100% gain, even if it only moves up 10 cents. Your returns aren’t correlated at all. It’s a different market to trade. They have them for everything, obviously. If you think the first 2 15-minute candles on an hourly candle are red, or if you think that hourly candle will close bullish, you can net a 300% gain, whereas on perps you can’t. This is degen. It’s as degen as it gets.

That’s awesome, though. What’s your plan moving forward with prediction markets? Because you are red all the time, Easy.

Oh, yeah. Bad.

You are red all the time, dude. Bad.

I got cooked today, dude. Got cooked because I was a degenerate this morning and just hammered some shit. Click on my history, though, and you can see that since the stream started, I’ve just been ripping these up-or-down markets. It’s just fun.

What would it take for you to enter—I know you trade with big size—your first $25,000, $50,000, or $100,000 position?

It’s a tough question, to be honest. I’ll get there eventually. What I’m doing right now is familiarizing myself with the markets I feel most confident in. It’s like anything: you should never go in blind, full size, because you’ll just get cooked. I’d rather start small, see if I’m consistent somewhere, and then continue to increase size over time. It’s like any market.

Good take. Also, your background is lit, by the way.

I appreciate you. I’m moving next week.

Oh, really? To where?

Same area. I’m still staying in Florida, but I just bought a crib.

Oh, damn. Congrats.

I’m done, bro. I’m old head. You’ve got to remember.

Wow, you bought a crib?

Yeah, dude. Damn, that’s a move. I don’t know if I really talked about it, but I hit a crazy big win on Aster and withdrew it 2 days before the 10/10 sell-off.

Big. Big enough to buy the house with just the profits? Whoa. Can we do over-under, or you don’t want to say? You can go over-under.

Okay, one over or under?

Yeah, one guess.

No, no, no. One over-under guess.

Yeah, yeah, one guess.

Okay, chat, what should I ask? What should I guess? One guess. I think I have a number. You bought a crib in Miami.

Not Miami.

Not Miami?

Yeah, I’m out of Miami. I’ve been out of Miami for over a year now.

Chat, the problem with a high guess is that if it’s under, we have no clue. If it’s over, we have no clue. The problem is, you have no clue if it’s under, because they could also be under by a smidge, just a tiny bit. How long were you in the trade for?

I bought it the day it launched and sold it—I sold half of it near $2 and the other half 2 days before the 10/10 sell-off.

On leverage or spot?

Both.

What was the percentage?

I can’t tell you that. It was good.

Okay. Well, that’s a crazy trade.

Yeah. I don’t know if it was the best trade this year, because I always forget we had Trump this year. Then I also hit on Believe. I hit Believe, dude, from $5 million to $300 million. I should have done that with receipts, but I didn’t. I had receipts and the thesis for that trade. Like, 48 hours before Nikita hit it again, it ran stupid hard.

Chat’s like, “Can we see the house?” [laughter] No shot. That house is staying quiet, bro. Can we see the house? [laughter] Okay, I have a guess. Everyone wants me to guess way too high. My guess is $911,000.

Up.

Oh my God. GG. Not crazy, but congrats.

Yeah, it was nuts. The thing was that I wanted to keep holding it, but the reason I sold it was I asked myself, “Am I going to be pissed if this goes down in the next few days when I know I’m buying a place, or will I be content just taking it out and buying the place?” I just took it out because I was like, “I’ll be mad if it goes down.” It hit me mentally, and I was like, “It’s time. It’s time to cut it.” Yeah, it was a great trade.

Let’s see those deposits in that Polymarket account, buddy. Let’s see some $50,000 buys, you know? There’ll be some. I’m telling you, there will be some more.

There will absolutely be some more, but like I said, I’m not in a rush to chase at all. There’s just no rush for me to start deploying heavily until I figure out which markets I really want to hone in on. I almost think it might be the finance markets, bro. I like those markets. They’re short-term, there’s data that goes into them, and there are odds that you can trade. They’re way more interesting to me.

Wow. Congrats. That’s a monster.

Appreciate you, bro.

Do you think you’ll be able to hit 7 figures on Polymarket? Not on one specific trade, but do you think you’ll get to a point where you’re up $1 million on Polymarket?

1,000%. 100,000%. My delusion is that I’m so interested in making it work that I’m going to make it work. It doesn’t matter how long. The level of effort I’ll put in outweighs any sort of downside risk. I’m that confident that I’ll get there. I’ll absolutely get there. Most of my bet sizing isn’t crazy, though. That’s the thing. Once you find the best edge and the best way for you to trade, that’s where you base hits score runs, too. I’m confident I can continue to hit base hit after base hit.

Someone said to ask what percentage of trades you close before resolution. I would say 99% of them.

Oh, really?

Is that the alpha?

If liquidity is there at 98 to 99 cents, I’m closing it.

Oh, you might as well, right? I’d rather have the cash in my pocket than wait for redemption to hit, wait for some other oracle pricing, or wait for some weird situation that’ll go against me. I’d much rather just get the cash off the table. Does that make sense? Is that the alpha? Is that what most of the best traders are doing?

So you’re familiar with Kicks, right? Speculator Art.

Yeah, of course.

He and I talk because he and Ty Real were very big mention-market traders throughout the previous election. They dominated those markets. Ty Real was hitting—do you remember the whole green-dildo thing at the sports games?

Ty Real hit me with a 5-figure win off of it.

How much?

5 figures on that.

Whoa. Yeah, he’s really good at finding mispriced trades and just letting them work. In the mention markets, he hit one—I forget what it was, but I want to say it was 2 or 3 cents—and he hit it with size. I think he swept the order book and had a consistent bid there that people were just filling. He was the GOAT of mention markets early. He doesn’t have a big social media following. He just became obsessed with prediction markets, found his edge, and does his thing. He has an alt account that he won’t dox at all, and it’s up, up. He switches his accounts frequently because he doesn’t want copy traders. He’ll get to $20,000 or $30,000 and move. He’s just printing. He’s the most slept-on, underground, best trader I’ve seen from that. This dude is really good.

I don’t think I have his account. If he wants to, I’ll send it to you because you should talk to him.

Wait, I would love to talk. Send me his Telegram or something.

I’m sending it. This is his X.

Oh, yeah, I’m good. I saw what you said. Yeah, no, I don’t care about that.

Yeah, you’re fine. Yeah, you’re fine. I don’t think so.

Oh, he follows me.

Oh, okay.

Yeah, so he’s OG Crypto Raiders. OG Crypto Raiders. But he’s good, dude. He’s really good.

Whoa. Okay, bet. Fire. Before I let you go, give us the locks. What are you paying attention to right now so I can follow them? Except for Polymarket?

No, no, Polymarket. But yeah, everything else—Polymarket too.

On alts?

Dude, I still like Aster.

Polymarket and alts.

Yeah, I still like Aster here, as crazy as it sounds.

Really?

I just think CZ somehow, some way, will end up pumping it. Hyperliquid’s the best trader. I think Hyperliquid goes to $150.

You still holding your position? That famous one?

Yeah.

That famous one?

Yeah.

What’s your target on this one? What’s your entry, around $30?

$32, I think, or $33. But my liquidation price is in the low $20s, so I don’t think it gets there. I’ve been holding that nonstop. It’s not insane leverage, but it’s a good trade, and I’m comfortable holding it until it gets to the exit point I want it to get to. I’m like, yeah, this is the one.

Whoa. I like HYPE a lot. Outside of that, I feel like PUMP is going to end up having another run, but I wouldn’t touch PUMP until post-airdrop. I want no part of it.

I know you got cooked on PUMP.

Brutal chart. The chart is great. That chart hurts. The other one—this chart looks crazy, but for whatever reason, I’m so bullish on it.

What’d you say?

Don’t say Plasma, please.

No, no, no, no.

Ethena. ENA. I just like their buyback system. It’s a revenue-generating business that, in a bull market or a return to an upswing, is going to continue to do well. It’s ugly, but I like coins that get bought back by the team, especially with size. When they start deploying and continue to deploy, I’m like, “Yeah, this makes sense.”

For alts in general, I think you just look at what World Liberty Financial is buying and buy the same shit—except for them. Yeah, except for WLFI, the coin. But I like Chainlink. I like Ethena. I like stuff where I’m like, “Yeah, these things make sense and have an applicable use case.” For Polymarket, though, if I’m taking something, bro, I like Cuomo. I do like Cuomo from 10 to 20 cents, 10 to 25, for a 100% to 150% gain, because I think if you get Sliwa to drop out, that’s going to move up very much. And you’ll like this one: I like VJ Edgecombe for Rookie of the Year.

Oh, I like that a lot. What are his odds? After the first game, he went crazy. Oh, he’s already up to 33%. What is Jeremy Sochan doing?

You could have got this, bro. I was heavy on him at like 9 or 10 cents.

Yeah, but I hated him, which is crazy. I thought he stunk. Bro, he’s NBA-ready. The motherfucker’s NBA-ready. He played in FIBA in college.

I watched every Baylor game because a kid I grew up with, Jeremy Roach, was playing at Baylor. Oh, dope. I thought Edgecombe kind of stunk. I thought he was a freak, but I didn’t think he stunk. I was like, “Ah.” The issue with college ball is how much bigger the college game is. What’d you say?

I said I’m a Jeremiah Fears guy.

Okay, okay.

[laughter]

I like that. The thing with me, too, is that Fears is at 1%. He’s not Rookie of the Year. No shot.

[laughter]

I think VJ Edgecombe’s going to end up outpacing everyone. The dude’s so good. The dude’s so good.

Yeah. He doesn’t play, and B doesn’t play ever. Nobody plays.

You’ve got—what is it? T.J. Mann and [?]. Who’s the other dude that’s playing over there? For who? Philly? Maxey?

Yeah, Maxey. Those two are like your competition.

Yeah, he’s like that. I think Edgecombe’s going to keep cooking.

Hey, this was sick, man. When you hit like 50K P&L, come back on the stream.

Absolutely. Give me like a week. Get those numbers up, twin. Give me like a week. Give me like a week.

Get those numbers up. Anything you want to sign off with?

No, that’s it, bro. Thanks for having me. I appreciate you, as always.

Easy. You’re the GOAT, bro. Thanks, bro.