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Acquired · · 273 分钟

Disney:文艺复兴与帝国

Ben GilbertDavid Rosenthal

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TL;DR
  • 这期节目的主线是,Disney的几个黄金时代都是结构性异常,而不是可以复制的打法。 Ben的核心概括是:有线电视捆绑、座无虚席的影院和家庭录像带共同意味着“当时做媒体是能赚钱的”——如今这些缓冲垫一个都不剩,这也是为什么Disney股价仍停留在2015年8月的水平,而标普500指数已经上涨3.5倍。“作为一家公司,他们永远都要被拿来和那些时代比较,这太残酷了。”
  • 现代Disney真正的利润发动机不是Mickey,而是ESPN——这是1995年Capital Cities/ABC交易中被意外埋进去的资产。 ESPN发明的联盟费模式如今平均每位有线电视用户每月贡献9.42美元,是第二名频道的4倍;2008—2011年间,ESPN贡献了公司约60%的经营利润。按主持人的算法,ESPN有线业务大约4年的利润,就足以支付Pixar(74亿美元)、Marvel(40亿美元)和Lucasfilm(40亿美元)三笔收购的总价。Roy E. Disney当时说,没人想到ESPN会成为“这群资产里的举重运动员”。
  • 收购Pixar仍是Disney最漂亮的一笔棋:它拯救了Disney Animation;正如Steve Jobs在祝酒词中所说,“我们拯救了两家公司”。 主持人认为,一旦Jobs知道自己将不久于人世,Pixar就不可能独立成长为Disney的竞争对手。Disney+每周热度前15名作品中,绝大多数来自Pixar或Disney Animation,而Disney Animation的主要入选作品又来自2005年后Catmull/Lasseter时代——正是这些IP在反哺主题乐园、周边商品,以及市值峰值达到3600亿美元的流媒体逻辑。
  • Disney+可能是必要之举,但从结构上看,它是一门比被替代业务都更差的生意。 David的框架是,头部流媒体平台必须持续用内容“喂饱这头野兽”,这与Disney依靠稀缺、优质内容驱动的飞轮完全正交;更麻烦的是,Disney“有所失可失”,像Obi-Wan这样的附加剧集会损耗原始IP,进而损耗品牌本身。流媒体累计亏损约130亿美元后,如今在约250亿美元收入上赚取约10亿美元;Netflix则在450亿美元收入上赚取135亿美元。Disney拥有1.32亿订户,远低于Netflix的3.25亿以上,无法匹配后者的规模经济。
  • 如今是主题乐园扛起了整家公司,但它不像有线电视那样具备可扩展性。 Experiences部门在360亿美元收入上贡献100亿美元经营利润,接近公司经营利润的60%;整个Entertainment部门的经营利润只有47亿美元,而院线发行收入已降至总收入的3%。这解释了Disney未来10年600亿美元的资本开支计划,也解释了主题乐园负责人Josh D'Amaro在2026年2月升任CEO:游客数量仍低于疫情前的1.57亿人峰值,公司的模式只能通过提高单客收入,并建设足够多的新项目来证明涨价合理。
  • 空头逻辑是,Disney的加盟品牌正在耗尽。 Ben问道,继2016年的Moana和Zootopia之后,Disney是否还推出过哪怕一个商业上成功的新加盟品牌?他的担忧是,三笔伟大收购“提供了大约20年的惊人燃料,但撑不了50年”;Marvel在Endgame之后的电影排期可能在院线上已经是净负贡献,而“Frozen可能已经是最后一部超级大片”。对于传闻总成本约7亿美元、即将上映的Avengers: Doomsday,他的直觉是:“我记得自己曾经对这种电影感到非常、非常兴奋。”
  • David的多头逻辑是,这些加盟品牌属于奢侈品品牌,也是代际神话——“你杀不死它们”。 对被遗弃的头部IP而言,Disney仍是最好的归宿;他的具体建议是Bluey加Nintendo。Nintendo市值约500亿美元,一年内下跌50%,规模“就像Pixar、Marvel和Lucasfilm加在一起”,Mario、Zelda和Pokémon都足以与Disney拥有的任何IP正面竞争。品牌周期大约为20年;他“不会惊讶于它在另一个10年后重回世界之巅”。
摘要 · 为研究而整理的核心内容

1. 1984:Disney死了比活着值钱

  • David开场描绘的场景是:Walt去世18年后,Disney Animation已经“像昔日自己的腐烂尸骸”;Epcot则是严重超支的“世界博览会山寨版”。1983年股价从82美元跌到52美元,公司按拆分出售计算甚至比完整经营更值钱——摆在桌面上的方案包括把电影片库卖给MGM,把主题乐园卖给酒店运营商。
  • 抵御公司掠夺者的唯一办法,是找一个更友善的掠夺者:管理层稀释股东权益,把公司约25%的股份交给来自Fort Worth的Bass家族和Richard Rainwater。这个持股比例超过Disney家族任何一个仍存的分支。
  • 飞轮的核心从数字上看已经死了:1984年,主题乐园和消费品贡献2.5亿美元利润;电影和电视——那个鼎鼎大名的Disney内容机器——只贡献200万美元。公司盈利在1982年下滑19%,1983年再降7%。

2. 救星已经在Walt资助的地下教室里

  • David揭示的“新希望”不是Eisner,而是CalArts的A113教室:这是Walt用约一半遗产资助的角色动画项目,John Lasseter、Brad Bird、Tim Burton、John Musker、Andrew Stanton、Brenda Chapman和Pete Docter都在那里学习动画技艺。节目逐字稿特别指出,Disney直接从学校招入Lasseter、Bird、Burton、Musker和Chapman——“然后Disney把他们全都开除了”。
  • 故事的传承来自Lasseter的女友:一次学生团去Disneyland,她对大家说:“想想看,有一天,这座乐园会充满你们将要创造的角色。”David说:“她完全不知道自己说得有多对,也完全不知道自己说得有多错。”

3. 14天政变,造就媒体史上最好的双人组合

  • 1984年9月7日,Roy E. Disney与Bass兄弟发动董事会政变,迫使CEO Ron Miller出局。随后董事会在14天内锁定、招募并聘用了Michael Eisner和Frank Wells。曾任Warner Brothers总裁的Wells接到第一个电话后立刻说:“我有兴趣,但我一个人做不了……你得给Michael打电话。”
  • Eisner坚持担任最高负责人,以此表明Disney由创意高管掌舵;Wells只是说可以,唯一的要求是两人都直接向董事会汇报。Ben认为,这个让步“足以说明Frank是怎样的人,也说明公司接下来10年会如何运作”。
  • Ben强调当时局势有多危急:一家声名显赫的美国公司,几周内不得不从外部引进2名完全没有Disney履历的人,任命其中1人为董事长,并用利润分成和期权把两人绑定——这是一场“彻底重启”。

4. 单曲和双垒安打:故事胜过明星

  • 在Barry Diller执掌Paramount期间,Eisner的策略是低成本制作、不请一线明星,并对剧本进行无情筛选。他写在那份“准备公开发表”的备忘录里:“我们没有义务去创作艺术……但为了赚钱,创作历史、创作艺术,或发表某种重要观点,往往很重要。”这就是“高概念”。
  • Katzenberg后来补上的一句话值得保留:“明星可以让一部电影开画,但明星撑不起一部电影。”主持人指出,Eisner甚至从没看过Snow White;但他的理念与Walt的理念暗中一致:两人都把故事放在第一位,只是一个站在极低预算端,另一个站在极高预算端。

5. 停车费从1美元涨到5美元,利润由此资助一切

  • 出于一种错位的虔敬,Walt去世后票价基本没有上涨;Eisner和Wells发现,价格仍有“5到10倍”的上行空间,而运营成本并不会随之改变,因此每增加1美元收入,“都会直接落到底线”。
  • 这笔现金,加上电影融资伙伴Silver Screens,帮助Disney执行Paramount式打法:Down and Out in Beverly Hills、Three Men and a Baby、Good Morning Vietnam、Pretty Woman,启用复出的演员和新人,像捡烟蒂一样挑选演员。最初33部电影中有27部盈利;David把它比作投了33笔风险投资,只有6笔亏损——这是一门典型的幂律生意。

6. “他们就在那边制作动画,那就是你的问题”

  • 新管理层的第一步,是把动画部门从Burbank片场驱逐到Glendale一栋摇摇欲坠的楼里;对于守护Walt遗产的人而言,这在文化上极其残酷。Ben讲述了一个从Katzenberg早餐谈话中听来的故事:Eisner指着那扇标有“ink-and-paint”的门问:“你知道他们在那边做什么吗?”两人都不知道。Eisner说:“那就是你的问题。”
  • Peter Schneider到任时获得了打破一切流程的授权。他接受职位时说:“我知道自己不可能比The Black Cauldron做得更差。你不可能从一楼掉下去。”他从专有颜料到为什么不用电脑,几乎把一切都重新问了一遍。1971—1984年间,这家工作室总共只推出了3部电影。

7. Howard Ashman的洞见:不是配着音乐的动画,而是动画形式的音乐剧

  • Katzenberg经David Geffen介绍,招来了Ashman。Ashman一上来就说:“我想做动画。我觉得动画和音乐剧之间存在联系。”Ben认为,这个洞见当时几乎没人看得见。Ashman随后带来了作曲家Alan Menken。
  • Ashman的结构理论是这样的:每一部伟大的百老汇音乐剧里,女主角的第三首歌都会让她坐在某件东西上,唱出自己想要什么;Part of Your World对Ariel正是这一结构,它撑起了整部电影。他还提出了一个关键问题:那只小螃蟹要不要设定成牙买加人?于是有了Under the Sea。

8. 文艺复兴周期,以及让预算保持不变的计算机系统

  • 业绩逐级跃升:Little Mermaid(1989)是经典之作,但按照Ben Cohen引用的《华尔街日报》说法,在家庭录像带收入爆发前,它赚得还没有When Harry Met Sally多;Beauty and the Beast以2500万美元成本取得3.3亿美元收入;Aladdin以2800万美元成本取得约5亿美元;The Lion King(1994)以4500万美元成本取得7.5亿美元收入,成为历史上最成功的手绘电影。
  • 控制成本的秘密是CAPS——Roy E. Disney从1990年开始推动的1000万美元Computer Animation Production System。它本质上是“2D动画版的Microsoft Paint”,在当时属于火箭科学;系统还配备了可以无限增加景深层次的软件多平面摄影机。Little Mermaid只有3个多平面镜头,The Lion King则有数百个。
  • 搭建这套图形技术的供应商是Pixar。Beauty and the Beast的舞厅横移镜头,背景由Pixar软件生成3D渲染,再通过CAPS与手绘的Belle和Beast合成,这是Disney电影第一次使用3D动画。“先记住这一点。”

9. 家庭录像带:另一场票房大胜,而且基本免费

  • 把经典电影发行成VHS曾被视为“异端”:1985年,Eisner必须召集Disney家族,才能批准以29.95美元发行Pinocchio。首批170万盘瞬间售罄,带来5000万美元收入,几乎没有增量成本。Cinderella第6轮商业开发,依靠重映和600万盘录像带,收入达到2亿美元。
  • Ben说他读到过,Disney每盘录像带能留下17—20美元利润。主持人强调,他们还发现所谓的自我蚕食根本不存在:“你知道小孩最擅长什么吗?弄丢VHS。”Aladdin在1993年卖出3000万盘;The Lion King在1995年卖出3200万盘,至今仍是史上最畅销VHS。它在约2.5亿美元院线收入之外,又贡献了大约5亿美元现金流;一年内合计达到7.5亿美元,而且几乎不需要向人才支付后端分成。

10. 750家商场门店,以及史上收入最高的娱乐产品——一部音乐剧

  • 超过750家Disney Store把购买周边变成每个美国人周末生活的一部分。Ben形容那个时代:“走进去简直像经历了一次迷幻体验。”两位主持人都怀疑,他们这一代人与Disney之间的特殊纽带,正是因为童年恰好处在这个峰值。
  • 让两人都震惊的数字是:The Lion King音乐剧在百老汇、伦敦和巡演剧团持续演出30多年,累计收入超过110亿美元。David认为,这使它成为“人类历史上创作过的收入最高的娱乐作品”,不论媒介。摊开来看,相当于每年约3.5亿美元总收入——“每年多出一部热门电影”,同时Disney拥有演出和IP,只与剧院分成票房收入。

11. 从主题乐园到度假村,以及8x的10年

  • Eisner把佛罗里达从一个主题乐园变成了一次度假体验:Grand Floridian、Swan、Dolphin、度假俱乐部分时度假产品、Hollywood Studios、Animal Kingdom陆续落地。Ben的概括是,他们把产品“从能和周六去看一场棒球比赛竞争的东西,变成能和你的欧洲5日游竞争的东西”——一次300美元的出行,升级成一次3000美元的旅行。
  • 但并非一片阳光:Euro Disney耗资40亿美元,连续多年失血。通俗说法是,Disney花了10年才明白“欧洲父母想喝葡萄酒,让孩子自己跑”,而且巴黎没人认为自己是“Euro”。
  • 成绩单是:经营利润从1984年不到3亿美元,10年后升至略低于20亿美元;到1994年市值达到220亿美元,增长10倍,成为最有价值的传统媒体公司,超过Time Warner、Viacom和News Corp。“而这一切马上就要崩塌。”

12. 1994:Wells去世,Eisner心脏病发,Katzenberg离开并在街对面创办DreamWorks

  • 1994年复活节星期日,Frank Wells在一次直升机滑雪事故中身亡。这位大人物之间的调停者、“Michael的阴阳两面中的阴面”一夜之间消失。3个月后,Eisner从Sun Valley被紧急送医,接受四重冠状动脉搭桥手术,并给妻子留下遗言,以防自己无法醒来。
  • Katzenberg认为自己曾被许诺担任二号人物;当Eisner和认为他尚未准备好的Roy拒绝这一安排后,他辞职并提起诉讼,数年后据报道以2.8亿美元和解。随后,他与Spielberg、Geffen共同创办DreamWorks:这是一家没有主题乐园、但具备完整链条的Disney竞争者,总部设在Universal片场,并挖走包括The Lion King故事负责人Brenda Chapman在内的Disney动画师。后来有了Shrek。
  • 屋漏偏逢连夜雨:Ashman几年前已因AIDS去世,1994年后的片单——Pocahontas、Hunchback、Hercules、Mulan、Tarzan、Atlantis、Treasure Planet——暴露了人才真空。有些电影不错,但没有一部是The Lion King;到最后,Atlantis和Treasure Planet已经是糟糕的电影。Eisner对继任危机的回答,是把自己提拔为总裁兼COO。

13. Sun Valley停车场上的握手,买下ABC,也意外买到了ESPN

  • 1993年,FCC废除Financial Interest and Syndication Rules。这项诞生于垄断时代、长期压制广播电视网对抗有线电视的限制,终于为制片厂与电视网合并打开了窗口。Ben说:“我喜欢那些在已经失去合理性后被废除的法律。”
  • 1995年Sun Valley峰会上,Eisner终于堵到Warren Buffett,Buffett又叫来了Tom Murphy。几天之内,Disney便敲定了190亿美元收购Capital Cities/ABC的交易,规模仅次于RJR Nabisco,是当时历史第二大收购。主持人复盘了“鱼吞鲸”的背景:小得多的Cap Cities在10年前、依靠Berkshire支持买下了规模4倍于己的ABC。
  • David坦率评价,广播电视当时已经从一门伟大的生意衰退成“一门还行的生意”;但其中埋着“人类历史上最好的单一有线电视资产”。

14. ESPN发明联盟费,变成每月9.42美元的收费闸门

  • ESPN的股权经历荒诞如戏:它先后经过Getty Oil、Texaco和ABC之手,ABC又引入Nabisco作为20%的合作方;KKR收购后,这部分股权转给Hearst。此后“在接下来的40年里,Hearst只是从ESPN拿走数十亿美元、数十亿美元的自由现金流”——几乎是白拿。
  • ESPN彻底改写了有线电视行业的经济模式:新兴有线频道要向运营商付费换取上架,ESPN却让运营商按用户数向自己付费,并用体育版权作为最强硬的筹码。David模拟了它的谈判脚本:“我们的上架费要涨20%。”“你不喜欢?好,那我们就拔掉信号。”“你确定?”“好吧,那就20%。”如今ESPN平均每位用户每月收取9.42美元的联盟费,是排名第二频道的4倍。
  • Roy E. Disney的判断是:“在那笔交易达成时,没人会告诉你ESPN最终会成为这群资产里的举重运动员。”2008—2011年间,有线电视网络部门约四分之三由分析师认为来自ESPN;该部门每年贡献超过50亿美元,占Disney公司经营利润的60%。
  • Ben指出,这笔交易虽然是一次满垒全垒打,却“让公司失去了战略清晰度”。Mickey Mouse和SportsCenter从未真正相遇;正确做法本应是把ESPN隔离出来,“把ESPN做到最好,然后享受美元收入”——在飞轮屋檐下,实际住着一个完全不同的商业模式。

15. 互联网泡沫时代的绕路,以及Ovitz惨败

  • Eisner的互联网时代包括收购Paul Allen的Starwave、收购排名第七的搜索引擎Infoseek,甚至考虑发行Disney互联网追踪股——“这种事根本像编的。”但他最大的错过,是拒绝Steve Case提出的AOL合并邀约,随后Time Warner吞下这颗毒丸。Ben看过当时的访谈后认为,Eisner确实怀疑“在一笔愚蠢交易中把Disney拱手让人”。
  • 1995年聘用Michael Ovitz“几乎从一开始就是双方都糟糕的决定”。Ben的拆解是:COO的工作是协调各路人马、说不、管理缓慢流程;经纪人的工作则是让人喜欢自己、说是,并同时处理500个项目。Ovitz任职刚超过1年便离开,拿到1.4亿美元遣散费,因为两个人都没想过这件事可能失败。

16. 9·11击穿主题乐园,Bass家族卖股,Roy发起savedisney.com

  • 9月11日对Disney主题乐园的打击“就像Disney主题乐园遭遇了一次COVID”:这颗皇冠上的明珠几乎归零,股价下跌约25%,大多数商场门店关门。Bass家族又因在其他地方面临追加保证金,进行一笔大宗交易,抛售20亿美元Disney股票。Eisner一夜之间失去了锚定股东的支持。Ben说:“这和1984年诡异地相似——只不过这次撑住公司的不是主题乐园,而是ESPN。”
  • 2003年11月30日,Roy E. Disney以“对于管理层的方向和管理风格存在严重意见分歧”为由辞去董事职务,并与Stanley Gold在savedisney.com发起公司史上首次公开代理权争夺。David补充说,这套打法后来在企业史上只被完整复制过1次:savepapajohns.com。

17. Roy列出的7项失败,以及Comcast“冒犯性”的540亿美元敌意收购

  • Roy那封3页长信抄送《华尔街日报》《纽约时报》和《洛杉矶时报》,逐条指控Eisner:没能让ABC黄金时段从收视率深渊中爬回来;管理层微观管理导致士气崩溃;对主题乐园投入不足;创意人才流失;所有利益相关者都认为公司“贪婪、没有灵魂、总想着赚快钱”;破坏合作伙伴关系,“尤其是Pixar”;以及没有继任计划。信的结尾是:“Michael,我真诚地认为,应该离开的是你,而不是我。”
  • Disney自办投资者日当天上午,原本准备靠Pirates of the Caribbean和19%的收入增长为Eisner解围,Comcast却突然抛出540亿美元敌意换股收购。David记得当时的震撼:一家有线电视公司——这种企业类型“很大程度上正是因为ESPN把所有人都惹毛了,成为美国最令人憎恶的公司类型”——竟然可以接管这项美国瑰宝。两位主持人都同意,真正的奖品是ESPN,以及终结每年反复上演的上架费战争。
  • Ben借Ben Thompson之口补充了宏观限制:有线电视捆绑“具备Disney的图表永远不可能具备的可扩展性”。到这个阶段,有线电视网络已经贡献Disney总计45亿美元经营利润中的约20亿美元。“Walt Disney的模式,只是那台真正赚钱机器旁边的一门好副业。”

18. 43%股东弃权,Iger靠拒绝捍卫过去取胜

  • 2004年3月3日的股东大会——而且荒唐地安排在Comcast大本营费城——有43%的股东对Eisner投弃权票。Ben说:“当43%的股东不希望CEO继续任职时,你不会续签他的合同。”董事会撤掉Eisner的董事长职务;Comcast撤回报价;Eisner宣布离任。
  • Iger是唯一的内部候选人。他要求董事会在新闻稿里明确提名自己,以防止权力真空。随后他聘请政治竞选顾问,彻底重构竞选逻辑:自己是一个不受欢迎、已经跛脚的总统麾下副总统,因此唯一可行的信息只能面向未来。他提出3根支柱:把资本投向高质量、强品牌内容,复兴动画和飞轮;“最大限度”拥抱技术——在Viacom起诉YouTube的时代,这一立场极其激进;以及向中国和印度等海外市场扩张。
  • 主持人坚持认为,Eisner执掌Disney的21年成绩应获得更多肯定:市值从约20亿美元升至约500亿美元;收入从17亿美元升至310亿美元,年复合增长率15%;净利润从9700万美元升至25亿美元,增长26倍。Ben对功劳排序是:“第一、第二、第三都是ESPN……第四才是Disney的文艺复兴。”

19. Pixar的起源:当天被开除、一次离婚,以及Steve Jobs的1000万美元支票

  • Lasseter曾是Disneyland Jungle Cruise的操作员,也是梦想进入CalArts的学生。他为Brave Little Toaster提出电脑动画方案;当被问到这样是否会更快、更便宜时,他回答:“都不会。它只是会拓展伟大叙事的可能边界。”当天他就被开除了。与此同时,来自犹他州传奇图形学项目的Ed Catmull——同学包括Alan Kay、Jim Clark和John Warnock——正在搭建Lucasfilm的电脑图形部门。
  • David用蝴蝶效应来描述这段历史:George Lucas之所以出售这个部门,只是因为他拒绝给前妻Lucasfilm的股权,需要现金支付离婚费用——“蝴蝶扇动翅膀,最终让Pixar拯救了Disney。”刚刚被Apple赶下台的Jobs起初想让这支团队打造一个Apple的竞争者;他向Lucas支付500万美元,并自己再投入500万美元,最终形成Jobs持股70%、员工持股30%的Pixar。
  • Ben兴奋地总结:“要让这个故事更酷,唯一的办法就是让他们以自己的游戏击败Disney,被Disney收购……然后Steve Jobs成为Disney本身的最大股东。”David说:“这听起来就像一部Pixar电影。”

20. Pixar流程:在真正制作电影前先做Beta测试

  • 主持人根据Pixar自己的S-1梳理了7个步骤:把4000多张分镜剪成带临时对白的故事样片,通过2D画面低成本迭代约8次。Lasseter的规则是:“如果故事样片不成立,动画也救不了它。”Jobs向投资者解释说:“这让我们能在真正制作电影之前对它进行Beta测试和迭代……这也是命中率能够显著不同的原因之一。”
  • 动画师仍会把自己拍下来演绎场景:他们甚至把滑雪靴用胶带绑在木板上,以研究玩具士兵如何移动;在处理面部表情前,身体动画必须先承担叙事功能。渲染Toy Story时,每帧需要在一座拥有117台Sun机器的渲染农场上耗时1—2小时,每周只能完成约3.5分钟的影片。
  • David区分道:“2D动画是一门艺术……Pixar做的是先创造一个宇宙,然后计算这个宇宙中的每一个原子。”每个技术步骤,同时也是一个故事步骤。

21. Toy Story:糟糕的交易、险些被取消,以及上映1周后的IPO

  • 1993年Disney与Pixar达成的交易是:Disney承担全部制作费用,拥有所有IP和续集权利;续集不计入3部电影的合约总数;Pixar获得的利润分成低于10%。“这算是一笔挺糟糕的交易,但这是他们毕生的梦想……它是Disney,你会做的。”
  • Katzenberg的意见把Woody推向刻薄的侮辱式喜剧。1993年12月的故事样片放映“像铅气球一样沉下去”,Disney随即叫停制作。Pixar苦苦争取数周,重写成他们原本想制作的电影,最终恢复项目。
  • Jobs推演得很清楚:如果Toy Story成功,Eisner会意识到自己制造了“他最可怕的噩梦”,并要求重新谈判;因此Pixar需要自己的资本,只能在电影上映后的下一周IPO。Toy Story取得约4亿美元票房,成为1995年全年最高票房电影;Pixar上市首日收盘市值达到15亿美元。Jobs在9年间投入5400万美元后持股78%,成为亿万富翁——“Steve Jobs靠Toy Story和Pixar发了财”,不是靠Apple。

22. Eisner对Jobs:从“rip, mix, burn”到“给那些人一次现实检验”

  • 重新谈判后的5部电影、名义上50/50分成的协议,埋下了新的怨气:Toy Story 2从直接发行录像带升级为院线电影,打破了Disney关于续集直接录像带发行的惯例,取得约5亿美元票房,而且不计入合约总数。Eisner的立场很简单:“合同白纸黑字。”后来他又在国会作证,反对Apple的“rip, mix, burn”宣传活动。Iger在书中写道:“很明显,Pixar的气势越来越盛,而Disney正在失去气势。”
  • 真正不可原谅的动作发生在Eisner看过Nemo早期样片之后——那种样片本来就应该是那个样子。Eisner却给Disney董事会写备忘录,称电影肯定会失败,会成为“给那些人一次现实检验”,有助于谈判时获取筹码。备忘录随后泄露。Nemo院线收入达到8.71亿美元,并以30美元的售价卖出约6500万张DVD;总收入约30亿美元,达到家庭录像带时代的顶峰。David说:“所谓现实检验,是他们根本不需要Disney。”
  • 2004年1月,Pixar公开宣布离开:“在尝试与Disney达成协议10个月后,我们决定继续前进……遗憾的是,Disney不会参与Pixar未来的成功。”两位主持人都同意:“这绝对是Steve写的。”Disney成立Circle 7 Animation,准备在没有Pixar的情况下制作Toy Story 3;如今这个项目已经“深埋在档案库里”。但Ben也公平地指出,Jobs要求Pixar拿走100%利润、Disney只收取10%发行费,确实无法为Disney的账本所容纳。

23. “看看我们做了什么。我们拯救了两家公司。”

  • Iger作为候任CEO打给Jobs的第一个电话,得到的是典型的Jobs式回应:“嗯,我看不出事情会有什么不同,不过好吧。尘埃落定后联系我。”真正的信念来自Hong Kong Disneyland开园巡游:现场没有过去10年Disney推出的角色,反而“塞满了Pixar角色”。当Iger向董事会申请致电许可时,这件事“不可思议到他们忘了说不”。
  • 这笔74亿美元的全股票交易让Pixar继续留在Emeryville,同时让Lasseter和Catmull接管Disney Animation;Disney明确提出过关闭Burbank动画部门的选项,但两人拒绝了。Jobs以约7.7%的持股成为Disney最大股东,持股甚至超过Disney家族整体。交易宣布当天早上,Jobs把Iger拉到一边说:“我的癌症复发了,我不知道自己还能活多久。”他给Iger约30分钟作决定,并提出可以退出交易,且不能告诉任何人。
  • 主持人追问:Pixar能否建立一个完整链条的Disney竞争者?他们问到的每一个人都给出同一个答案:不可能。Pixar是Walt在1940年设想、最终真正实现的乌托邦;那里没有西装革履的管理者,只有Jobs在时才可能存在的文化。没有Jobs,那里没人想成为Disney。于是Jobs最后那顿晚餐上的祝酒词有了新的含义:“看看我们做了什么。我们拯救了两家公司。”

24. Pixar的数学题,以及Kristen Bell对文化迁移的确认

  • 对这笔约64亿美元净收购价进行合理性检验:仅Toy Story一部电影就带来超过40亿美元票房和约300亿美元生命周期零售销售额,按约5%的授权费计算,贡献约20亿美元;在主题乐园、Disney+或“甜美的家庭录像带收入”之前,已经有约35亿美元的高毛利收入。但Ben真正的杀手锏是:Disney+每周热度前15名作品中,绝大多数来自Pixar或Disney Animation;而孩子真正会反复刷的Disney Animation作品,都是2005年后的电影:Frozen、Encanto、Moana、Zootopia。“孩子不会坐在那里反复刷Snow White。”
  • 来自内部的验证是,Frozen中Anna的配音演员Kristen Bell向主持人确认,如今的Disney Animation采用了与90年代初Pixar相似的蓝图:反复制作故事样片、无自我中心的反馈,以及随时愿意拆掉重来的故事。“这实际上与Disney这家公司为什么能运转有很大关系。”

25. Marvel和Lucasfilm各40亿美元,全都由ESPN支付

  • 2009年的Marvel是一笔“高度逆向”的交易:Spider-Man在Sony手里,X-Men在Fox手里,Batman和Superman属于DC——“你到底在买什么?”答案是,MCU利用剩余角色构建出的世界,最终成为加盟品牌运营的教科书。截至2025年,37部电影累计票房约320亿美元,成为影史最成功的电影加盟品牌。2012年的Lucasfilm则是“同一个故事的另一个版本”——过去100年最伟大的神话,只是被赋予了更大的画布。
  • Ben做了一个套利式比较:把交易价格与有线电视利润排在一起看,Pixar约等于当时2.5年的有线电视利润,Marvel和Lucasfilm各自还不到1年。“ESPN支付了Pixar、Marvel和Lucasfilm的费用。”这是一种巴菲特式的资本轮换:把现金生产资产产生的资金,转投到能够继续再投资的地方。
  • 到2015年,飞轮全速运转:Frozen上映第一年卖出300万件Elsa/Anna连衣裙;年度周边商品总销售额达到500亿美元,5年内增长约2倍;Frozen原声带销量超过Taylor Swift的1989,成为2014年最畅销专辑;主题乐园经营利润增长3倍;市值增长4倍至2000亿美元。

26. 2015年8月4日:“订户小幅流失”引爆整个行业

  • 在那次财报电话会上,Iger承认ESPN当年因剪线流失300万订户,降至9200万;但Disney股价就在当天触及历史最高点,只有2021年疫情行情期间曾短暂超过这一水平。Ben的残酷框架是:如今股价与11年前持平,而标普500上涨3.5倍——“11年前,人们认为Disney的未来和今天一样光明……他们当时和今天一样相信它。”
  • David认为,随后发生的并购狂潮可能是任何行业历史上最疯狂的一次整合:Time Warner被AT&T收购后又拆出,最终并入Discovery;Viacom-CBS改名为Paramount;Ellison家族通过Skydance救场;到2026年,Warner Brothers Discovery差点卖给Netflix,之后又出现“Paramount Skydance的白日梦”,截至录音时已被法律程序暂时冻结。
  • 最终结果是,除了Disney之外,所有传统媒体公司都变成“科技公司的流媒体王国里的某种农奴”。如今好莱坞真正的利润生产者是Netflix、YouTube和Disney。

27. 打造Disney+:险些买下Twitter、收购BAMTech,以及撕掉Netflix的支票

  • 主持人起初持有一个反向观点:继续每年从Netflix收取数亿美元,让内容的普及率反过来为主题乐园导流。David否定了这一点:“一旦Netflix的算法决定家庭能不能看到你的电影,你就有大问题。”令人吃惊的是,过去100年里,Disney在主题乐园之外始终没有直接的客户关系:没有邮箱,没有用户身份,只有发行商开来的支票。
  • 由于缺乏互联网能力,Disney一度差点收购Twitter。主持人说,这笔交易基本已经拟好文件,原计划周一签约,Jack Dorsey也会进入Disney董事会;但Iger最后一刻退出,“可能是正确的决定”。Disney转而收购BAMTech:这是MLB旗下的流媒体部门,最初因把水手队比赛传到日本、服务Ichiro球迷而诞生,此前已经运营过HBO Now。Disney在2016年取得33%股权,2017年加速获得控制权;与此同时,公司宣布Disney、Pixar、Marvel和Lucasfilm的全部内容将在2019年前离开Netflix,放弃相当于公司盈利约2%的纯利润分成。
  • 两位主持人都强调ESPN的特殊限制:ESPN+于2018年推出时必须做成一个无足轻重的产品,因为优质内容必须留在那个能印钞的有线频道;从无论用户看不看都收费的联盟费模式,转向按使用收费的流媒体模式,就等于主动放弃捆绑销售里那些从不消费内容的用户所带来的魔力。

28. Fox:被Comcast抬价190亿美元,可能是几笔大交易中最糟的一笔

  • 主持人还原Murdoch的逻辑:Fox测算了片库价值,得出结论——深度片库的价值会沉淀在它不想自己建设的流媒体平台上,于是保留新闻、体育等首轮资产,把其余业务卖掉;因为X-Men、Deadpool和Fantastic Four“对Disney的价值实际上远高于对我们自己的价值”。
  • 已签署的520亿美元交易被AT&T反垄断案判决鼓舞的Comcast横插一脚,最终Disney支付了713亿美元——“相当于白送Fox股东190亿美元”。扣除约290亿美元的RSN和Sky剥离资产后,实际价格约为440亿美元。David直截了当地说:“他们大概根本拿不到接近440亿美元的价值。”印度资产后来以交易价值的一小部分并入Reliance;Hulu的控制权才是这笔交易真正留下的战略资产。Ben认为:“这无疑是4笔大收购里最糟的一笔。”

29. COVID过山车:3600亿美元市值峰值,以及Chapek两年的失控

  • Disney+于2019年11月上线,月费6.99美元,并开放片库;24小时注册用户达到1000万,首季度达到2600万。随后COVID让主题乐园收入归零,净利润转负;封锁却让Disney+在16个月内突破1亿订户,远超5年达到6000万—9000万订户的目标。市值在2021年初达到3600亿美元峰值;Ben提醒,零利率环境放大了这一数字,市值到10月又开始下跌。
  • Chapek任期内,流媒体亏损叠加了一系列自伤:员工已经买房后,公司又反转Imagineer搬迁计划;与佛罗里达州长发生争执;Star Wars主题酒店开业后迅速关闭——“这是一家公司彻底陷入混乱。”2022年11月财报电话会后,董事会解雇Chapek,Iger回归。
  • Ben对继任失败的诊断是,Iger以为自己是在把公司交给一个和平时期的看守者,于是选了一个守成者;但当时Disney+仍处于实时学习阶段——“启动这件事的人,某种程度上需要亲眼把它走完。”

30. 跑步机对飞轮:Disney有所失可失

  • David重新引用Ben在2019年的原话:“我会不会每月花7美元,只为了保留一个选择?不会……他们确实需要积极地打开内容消防水管。”问题在于,“用内容消防水管灌满平台的策略,与只在极少数时候推出最优质内容的飞轮策略完全正交。”
  • Ben提出两项资产的逻辑:把内容不断附加到一个差异化宇宙上,会贬低原始资产——“我记得自己看Obi-Wan时想,这有点打破了我对Obi-Wan的认知。”而Netflix的品牌只是“我在电视上按下的那个按钮”,Disney品牌却会随着每一次发布不断增值或腐蚀。他对Loki的质疑是:“当Thanos只是在无限多元宇宙的一条支线上杀人时,谁还在乎他?我花了10年人生投资这个角色,你现在却告诉我这一切根本不重要?”
  • 2019年巅峰时,每一根支柱都开始腐烂:Lasseter离开,Catmull退休;Episode IX被迫把“Star Wars凡士林”厚厚涂在Rian Johnson的支线上;Endgame字面意义上已经是终局,但Disney却要求Marvel产量增加50%。2021年后的片单,在院线上可能已经是净亏损。

31. ESPN的终局:联盟和科技公司拿走剩余利润

  • 到2023年,联盟费上涨已经无法抵消订户流失,ESPN收入开始下降。成本端更糟:Amazon式竞标者“有更多方式从消费者身上变现”,例如Prime订阅,因此在结构上可以压过传统电视网。Monday Night Football的版权费从2006年的11亿美元,升至2011年的19亿美元,再升至2021年的每年27亿美元。Ben的经济学判断是:“如果有人拥有一种商业模式,在结构上能够比你更有效地从用户身上变现……价格就会由他们决定。”长期来看,超额利润会流向NFL和NBA。
  • 2025年NFL交易中,NFL Network被置换进ESPN,换取10%的股权。Ben认为这笔交易对双方都很漂亮:联盟如今持有ESPN股份,也就有动力确保ESPN继续成为可行的竞标者。ESPN Unlimited以每月30美元上线,并积极与Disney+/Hulu捆绑,额外加价6美元。Ben后来了解到,这么做有两个目的:捕获平时不消费ESPN的用户,以及降低流失率——捆绑订户不会每月逐个检查每个App的价值。
  • David指出关键的不对称性:ESPN是全球最强的体育内容生产者,但“你不会回去重看上一季的ManningCast节目”。对没有货架期的内容而言,永远不可能建立真正的飞轮,哪怕它锁定的收入仍然异常可预测。至于“下滑资产”,需要加一个脚注:ESPN每年仍能贡献30亿美元经营利润。

32. 今天的业务:主题乐园贡献60%利润,院线发行仅占收入3%

  • 2026年的业务结构是:Disney+拥有1.32亿订户,Hulu拥有6400万,ESPN+拥有2400万。订阅收入从2017年的几乎为零,增长到2024年的190亿美元以上,如今约220亿美元,成为公司最大的单一收入来源。但Netflix拥有3.25亿以上订户、450亿美元收入和135亿美元经营利润,后者相当于Disney全公司的经营利润;Disney流媒体则在累计投入约130亿美元后,只贡献约10亿美元利润。“流媒体是一门规模经济生意。”
  • 分部数据是:Entertainment收入420亿美元、经营利润47亿美元;Experiences收入360亿美元、经营利润100亿美元;Sports收入180亿美元,其中ESPN贡献约30亿美元经营利润。Ben对自己一度以为看错的子项目感到难以置信:院线发行收入只有26亿美元,占总收入3%。“从外部看,我们会把The Walt Disney Company理解成电影和票房公司,但那根本不是它的业务。”
  • 主题乐园的逻辑链条是:实体容量不像有线电视那样可以规模化,年游客量为1.45亿人,仍低于疫情前的1.57亿人峰值,因此商业模式只能依赖提高单客价格。为了让数千美元的旅行支出显得合理,公司未来10年将投入600亿美元资本开支,其中包括美国本土300亿美元,以及把邮轮船队从8艘扩至13艘。由此,主题乐园负责人Josh D'Amaro自2026年3月起担任CEO,Dana Walden担任总裁,Iger将在年末完全退出。

33. 有没有更好的策略?主持人尝试过,但没能找到

  • 两位主持人都想要精品店式答案——David称Disney+是“人类历史上发明过的最好的育儿产品”——但他们承认这不是一门生意:如今人们只有在The Odyssey、Toy Story 5、Dune 3这类事件电影上映时才会去影院;Ratatouille或Encanto这样的原创作品,现在只能通过大型流媒体平台触达大众,不论平台属于自己还是第三方。数据也支持这一点:Pixar近10年没有一部新IP电影创下纪录,真正大卖的只有续集。Ben说:“产品与市场的匹配是不断变化的……如今的市场已经不是一个会去看Ratatouille的市场。”
  • 两人的唯一真正分歧是:Ben认为,如果Disney的优质内容放在Netflix上,依靠自然传播就能登上排行榜,触达3.5亿人而不是1.3亿人;David反驳说,Netflix是“一家由算法驱动的超市”,即便排名前三的电影,也只能触达订户中的一小部分;影院则像经过策展、数量有限的摊位,热门作品会被所有人看到。“你是在Netflix上和Seinfeld竞争。”
  • Ben仍然失望于那段承诺中的“更深客户关系”从未实现:除了统一登录之外,“我的Disney+观看习惯并没有让我的主题乐园体验变得不同”。真正的好处其实更简单:强制分发。他还提出一个令人不适但普遍适用的洞见:大规模流媒体服务必须是一个什么都有的厨房水槽——“电视行业真正赢下来的东西就是厨房水槽,也就是有线电视捆绑。”他的主张是把Hulu和Fox资产拆出去;“Avatar留在Disney,但其他一切都必须离开。”

34. 空头:加盟品牌耗尽。多头:杀不死的神话——以及买下Nintendo

  • Ben的空头逻辑可以浓缩成一个问题:自2016年的Moana和Zootopia以来,恰好从流媒体成为主导开始,Disney是否推出过任何一个商业上成功的新加盟品牌?此后所有大项目都只是收割。三笔收购“提供了大约20年的惊人燃料,但撑不了50年”;David说,“Frozen可能已经是最后一部超级大片。”至于传闻总成本7亿美元、将于今年12月上映的Avengers: Doomsday,Ben说:“我的胃里有一种感觉,我已经没那么兴奋了。”David则说,自己“几乎都不知道它要上映了,这更糟”。
  • David完全站在另一边:这些加盟品牌是奢侈品品牌,“你杀不死它们……它们是我们社会的核心神话,会一代代传下去”,而且往往会在最低谷时给人惊喜。Ben无法反驳:他的儿子会在Star Wars陪伴下长大,永远不会知道曾经有一部糟糕的Obi-Wan剧集;就像如今没人记得Star Wars Holiday Special。
  • David的收购建议是Bluey——“史上最伟大的儿童节目”,处境与Pixar当年相似,几乎已经在Disney内部,却无法独立发展——以及Nintendo。Nintendo市值约500亿美元,较去年下跌50%,价格“低于Fox的收购成本”。“Nintendo就像Pixar、Marvel和Lucasfilm的结合体”——Mario、Zelda、Pokémon都足以与Disney的任何IP正面竞争;但两位主持人也承认,“日本不会允许这件事发生”。David用一个尚未被挖掘的例子作证:他的女儿快5岁了,却仍然没有一套Nintendo官方的Princess Peach服装。

35. 力量与精髓:环境变了,但一切总会回来

  • 流媒体时代的“七种力量”是:面对Peacock、Paramount+等垂直竞争者,Disney掌握的稀缺IP占据优势;面对Netflix,则变成纯粹的规模经济竞争,而Disney会输。因此正确策略是成为“明确的第二名”,减少内容产量,“让飞轮自行修复”,继续由主题乐园利润补贴流媒体,而不是为了争夺第一名去追求厨房水槽式内容库。
  • Ben的核心概括是:Disney曾经处在一个难以置信的轻松环境里——ESPN的联盟费自动驾驶,观众习惯性去影院,然后把同一部电影装进盒子重新卖一遍;如今的环境恰好相反,“到处都没有那么多舒服的剩余利润”。Disney会没事,“如果管理得足够谨慎,甚至会繁荣”,但90年代末以及2005—2019年的繁荣“完全是异常值”。最残酷的地方在于,公司永远会被拿来和那个时代比较。“当时做媒体是能赚钱的……那时还有空间让创意繁荣。现在这样的空间少多了。”
  • David在结尾给出一剂乐观的平衡剂:“Disney是代际神话的家园,你永远杀不死它。”它以约20年为周期运行——“我不会惊讶于它在另一个10年后重回世界之巅。”
Ben Gilbert

So, David, the real question is: after this episode gets released, it becomes this durable IP that's part of an IP franchise—will we turn this into a musical?

David Rosenthal

Oh yes. Absolutely. With masks and dancing in the aisles.

Ben Gilbert

And I'm thinking, too, we may as well do Acquired on Ice and find—

David Rosenthal

Oh yeah, while we're at it. Let's go.

Ben Gilbert

—yet another adaptation of it.

David Rosenthal

Can we do Acquired in space?

Ben Gilbert

Ooh. We know a few people who could make that happen.

David Rosenthal

Yeah, help make that happen. All right.

Ben Gilbert

All right. Let's do this.

Disney is so much more than you think it is. It is Mickey and Minnie, Ariel, Simba, Elsa, Woody, Buzz, Nemo, all the Pixar characters, and, of course, The Avengers, Luke Skywalker, Darth Vader, Winnie the Pooh, Disneyland, Disney World, Disney cruises, and Disney hotels. But now it's also The Simpsons, Avatar, and National Geographic, plus the entire studio of 20th Century Fox, a privately owned government inside the state of Florida, a private island in the Bahamas—

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

—10 Broadway musicals, the special-effects firm Industrial Light & Magic and Skywalker Sound, one of the 4 major U.S. broadcast networks, ABC, and, of course, ESPN.

David Rosenthal

I was wondering when you were going to get to the worldwide leader here.

Ben Gilbert

Unexpectedly, a giant amount of the profits of the whole company comes from—

David Rosenthal

Absolutely.

Ben Gilbert

—it is the SEC Network. And for a period of time, David, they got even more exotic, owning the NHL team, the Mighty Ducks.

David Rosenthal

Oh yeah.

Ben Gilbert

The Anaheim Angels in the MLB.

David Rosenthal

Angels in the Outfield, baby.

Ben Gilbert

And the 1936 British ocean liner, the Queen Mary.

David Rosenthal

That's right.

Ben Gilbert

Despite being one of America's most storied and stable brands, the company is going through a time of immense upheaval. They're in the midst of a transition to streaming with Disney+ and Hulu, and ESPN is making giant technology and marketing investments to support that transition. Those investments lost billions for half a decade, and they're doing this while their old, fantastically profitable businesses are fading.

Consumers don't really go to the movies like they used to. They don't buy movies on VHS, DVD, or Blu-ray, and, of course, consumers are also cutting the cord to cancel their cable subscriptions, so those fat profits from cable channels like ESPN are shrinking every year.

Disney, despite being over 100 years old, is at the very center of the most interesting business-strategy questions that have ever been posed. Can we fight the innovator's dilemma and win? What exactly is enduring about our business as technology and trends change? And can our future be as bright as our past?

Today, listeners, we tell the story of how Disney went from Walt's tidy, neat idea of an animation studio turned theme-park operator into the global, sprawling, diversified behemoth that Disney acquired and expanded its way into today. And we'll answer that question: What does their future look like from here?

David Rosenthal

Yes.

Ben Gilbert

All right. Well, big news from Acquired headquarters. This episode has a companion PDF with visuals, charts, tables, and illustrations of the key concepts we discuss. You can get access and follow along by clicking the link in the show notes or going to library.acquired.fm. You can join the email list at acquired.fm/email. That's where we'll send out behind-the-scenes photos of research, past episode corrections, and it's where you can vote on future episode topics. Plus, we'll give away a little hint each time at what the next episode is about. That is acquired.fm/email. And if you are in the Bay Area on September 17th, you should join us for the official 2026 Acquired meetup with our friends at Sentry. Details are at acquired.fm/meetup.

David Rosenthal

Woo.

Ben Gilbert

Before we dive in, we wanna thank our brand spanking new presenting partner, Sierra.

David Rosenthal

Yes. Sierra is not only the very best partner for agents in the enterprise, but also home to the self-proclaimed co-presidents of the Acquired Fan Club, Clay Bavor and Brett Taylor.

Ben Gilbert

Yes, as Brett and Clay shared on stage with us a few weeks ago when we were in New York together.

David Rosenthal

Yes, indeed. Thank you, Sierra.

Ben Gilbert

Listeners, this show is not investment advice. David and I may have investments in the companies we discuss, and this show is for informational and entertainment purposes only.

1. Disney Falls Into Crisis

David Rosenthal

All right. Well, we start in 1984, the year I was born. All this was happening. I had no idea. Disney is in chaos. In the 18 or so years since Walt died, Disney's star has faded so badly that it looks like no wish can save it.

Disney Animation, once the shining pillar of the American can-do spirit and the core of Disney's beautiful flywheel business model, has become a rotting carcass of its former self. That's the kindest way I could think to put it. Epcot has just launched in Florida, not as Walt Disney's utopian dream of a city of the future, but as a massively over-budget and underwhelming World's Fair knockoff that the company has sunk hundreds of millions of dollars deep into debt to build.

Family drama among the Disneys runs rampant. Roy Disney's son, Roy E. Disney, has resigned from the company and is scheming to launch a boardroom attack on Walt's once-beloved son-in-law, Ron Miller, who is currently the CEO running the company.

The stock is in the dumps. There have been multiple corporate raiders swirling. There are deals on the table to break up Disney, sell off the film library—Snow White, Cinderella, Sleeping Beauty—sell it all off to MGM, sell the theme parks off to hotel operators, and maximize shareholder value here in the 1980s.

And in the midst of all this, desperate to ward off these corporate raiders, management strikes a series of friendly deals with 4 oil-and-gas and real-estate brothers in Fort Worth, Texas—the Bass family—and their famous investment manager, Richard Rainwater. That results in the Bass family owning about 25% of the Walt Disney Company and becoming Disney's largest shareholders.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah. How crazy is this? It's quite the introduction: the company was in such bad shape in 1983, and its stock dropped from $82 to $52, that the company was worth more if you sold it for parts than if you actually ran it. And so the only defense that they have against these corporate raiders is to find a corporate raider of their own—

David Rosenthal

Right.

Ben Gilbert

—dilute shareholders so much that they're creating all these new shares to give to these new guys—

David Rosenthal

These Texas guys.

Ben Gilbert

—the Bass family—so they can own 25%, which basically makes them pseudo-controlling shareholders.

David Rosenthal

More than any of the remaining branches of the Disney family.

Ben Gilbert

Yes. And that is by far the best option to fend off these corporate raiders. Dark times.

And David, things have gotten so bad in the creative core engine that nearly every dollar of profit is coming from the parks and licensing consumer products at this point. Films and TV—the Disney that you know of, the content business—is basically break-even. In 1984, Disney generated a quarter billion dollars of profit from its parks and consumer products, and a mere $2 million from film and TV. The core of the famous Disney flywheel is completely broken.

2. The CalArts Animation Pipeline

David Rosenthal

But there is a spark of hope. A group of young innovators who will ignite a whole revolution in the movie industry come in and save the company. I'm not talking about Michael Eisner, Frank Wells, and Jeffrey Katzenberg.

Ben Gilbert

Ooh, I thought that's where you were.

David Rosenthal

You would think that's where we're going. Rather, the group that I am talking about is a new hope for the core of Disney Animation, the center of the flywheel.

All right, so Ben, what if I told you that during this very same time as everything that I just said—Disney Animation is floundering—all of the following people are being taught—

Ben Gilbert

Ah.

David Rosenthal

—the craft of Disney Animation in a small basement room just a half-hour's drive north of the Disney Burbank lot, in another institution that Walt Disney himself had created, set up, and endowed in his will.

Ben Gilbert

CalArts.

David Rosenthal

John Lasseter, Brad Bird, Tim Burton, John Musker, who would do The Little Mermaid, Aladdin, and then, many years later, Moana.

Ben Gilbert

Mm-hmm.

David Rosenthal

And then later after them, Andrew Stanton, of course, writer and director of Finding Nemo, WALL-E, and Toy Story 5. Brenda Chapman, head of story for The Lion King. And, of course, Pete Docter, who today is chief creative officer at Pixar. All of these people are in a basement classroom, classroom A113, home of the character-animation program at the California Institute of the Arts, or CalArts.

Ben Gilbert

Which was basically created as a pipeline for Disney, right?

David Rosenthal

Yes, exactly. That was why Walt created CalArts. He wanted it to be this institution that would keep the pipeline of new animation talent flowing into Disney long after he was gone. And Walt left half of his estate to fund—

Ben Gilbert

Huh.

David Rosenthal

—this institution. And it was that. I mean, John Lasseter, Brad Bird, Tim Burton, John Musker, and Brenda Chapman—all of them were hired directly by Disney and Disney Animation right out of school.

And then Disney fired all of them.

Ben Gilbert

But they all ended up back eventually.

David Rosenthal

But they all ended up back. So there's this amazing story that one day, while John Lasseter was a student there in the late ’70s, he and a bunch of these people drove down to spend the day at Disneyland. John's girlfriend at the time came along with them, and she said to them, “Just think, someday this park is gonna be filled with the characters that you guys are gonna create.” And she had no idea both how right and how wrong she was.

Ben Gilbert

Yes.

David Rosenthal

It would just take a few decades.

Ben Gilbert

Yes. Okay, so how does this company turn around? Because I was looking at the financials, and it looks like 1982 earnings are down 19%, and you sort of expect, “Oh, maybe that's a hiccup, it'll come back.” Then 1983 earnings are down another 7%.

David Rosenthal

Yep. So in the wake of all that, in 1984, Roy E. Disney decides enough is enough. Together with the Bass brothers, the new 25% shareholders, Roy and his business partner, Stanley Gold, who's also on the Disney board with him, they gang up and finally force out Ron Miller as CEO, who, again, was Roy's cousin by marriage, married to Walt's daughter. They do this via a dramatic boardroom coup that happened on September 7, 1984.

Then, over a period of just 14 days, because Disney is now without a leader and is in a double crisis, they go out and identify, recruit, sell, and hire arguably the greatest 2-person management team in media company history: Michael Eisner and Frank Wells. Then Michael quickly brings in his number 2 from Paramount, Jeffrey Katzenberg, to run the film studios.

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

All right, so who are these guys? First, the board goes after Frank Wells. Frank had been the president of Warner Bros. and had since retired. But before that, earlier in his career, he was the mentor of Stanley Gold—Roy E. Disney's business partner and fellow Disney board member—back at their old law firm.

So Frank is their first call. They trust him deeply. He's eminently qualified. He's recently retired, so he's available. Frank says, “I'm interested, but I can't do this alone. There's somebody else you gotta call. You gotta call Michael Eisner.”

So Michael, until recently—the timing is just crazy on this—had been probably the hottest Hollywood movie studio executive in town. He had been the number 2 executive at Paramount under Barry Diller and had architected one of the most legendary runs in Hollywood history. Within a span of 7 years, the 2 of them, Barry Diller and Michael, made Indiana Jones, Star Trek, Saturday Night Fever, Grease, Footloose, Flashdance—the list goes on and on.

Ben Gilbert

This is when Paramount was number 1.

David Rosenthal

Yep. And the way they did it was through this famous strategy that they called the singles-and-doubles strategy. The idea was they would keep their production costs low, they would generally not work with A-list stars and directors, and instead they would focus on the quality of the scripts and the stories and let that be their guiding judgment, as opposed to the typical Hollywood thing of who's attached to the project. Do we have the stars?

Ben Gilbert

And the singles-and-doubles name appealed to shareholders. It didn't exactly appeal to talent. So the way they billed it in the other direction was “high concept”—describing a unique idea whose originality can be conveyed briefly.

David Rosenthal

Exactly.

Ben Gilbert
David Rosenthal

Yep. So Michael writes a famous memo in Hollywood history that gets leaked and spread around the rest of Hollywood describing this strategy, and he writes—

Ben Gilbert

Spoiler alert: no memo actually ever leaks in Hollywood. They're all intentionally leaked.

David Rosenthal

Yes, they're written for publication. That's the way this town works. So Michael writes, “We have no obligation to make art. We have no obligation to make history. We have no obligation to make a statement. But to make money, it is often important to make history, to make art, or to make some significant statement. Not even the greatest screenwriter or actor or director can be counted on to save a film that lacks a strong underlying concept.” There you go, Ben: high concept.

Ben Gilbert

That's right. And there was another memo leaked later by Jeffrey Katzenberg who, speaking of the lieutenants, Barry Diller's lieutenant is Michael Eisner, and Michael Eisner's lieutenant is Jeffrey Katzenberg. Jeffrey writes a memo later in which he espouses this really great line: “Celebrity can open a film, but celebrity can't carry a film.”

David Rosenthal

Mm. Yep.

Ben Gilbert

So yes, you can pay up to attach these big names, but ultimately the audience does experience the quality of the story for itself, and you need the story, the characters, and the emotion to take it from there.

David Rosenthal

Yep, yep. Now, on the one hand, this is crazy: These guys are coming in to run Disney. Disney is not a Hollywood company.

Ben Gilbert

Right? One is a retired Warner Bros. executive, and the other is a hotshot Paramount executive. Michael from Paramount has not seen Disney movies. He was not raised on them. He had never seen Snow White or Sleeping Beauty. He wasn't really a Disney guy—

David Rosenthal

No.

Ben Gilbert

—despite the fact that as soon as he later got the job, he was never without his Mickey Mouse tie.

David Rosenthal

Of course. But he didn't know how to run a theme park, the flywheel—anything. But when you think about it, Michael's philosophy actually is pretty simpatico with the Disney philosophy. It's all about story. It's all about concept. And yes, Walt had a very different way of doing this. He was, “Go big and invest tons in technology and animation,” and Michael is like, “Produce things cheap, singles and doubles.”

Ben Gilbert

But they're both story first.

David Rosenthal

Exactly.

Ben Gilbert

They're both obsessed with: Can we create characters that take you on these emotional journeys and tell compelling stories?

David Rosenthal

And then the unthinkable happens. Michael gets forced out of Paramount at the peak of his success.

Ben Gilbert

Well, sort of. Barry leaves, as we talked to Barry about on stage at Radio City Music Hall.

David Rosenthal

Yeah, to team up with Rupert Murdoch and launch Fox.

Ben Gilbert

Yes, Fox the TV network, because Fox the film studio already existed. So Barry leaves. Michael is supposed to get the job that Barry had as chairman of the movie studio over at Paramount, and he doesn't get that job, largely because of internal politics and who's making how much money—those sorts of games.

Michael's contract says he's owed a check if he does not get the job when Barry leaves. So Michael decides, “You know what? I don't really wanna stay here without Barry anyway. I'm gonna start poking around for other things.” He had been having these kinds of background conversations. “I'll take the check and get out of here.”

David Rosenthal

Yep. So all of a sudden Michael's available right as all this drama is going on at Disney. He was on the board of CalArts with Roy E. Disney. So they've been talking for a while, but now it all comes together.

Ben Gilbert

So Frank is offered the top job, and Michael's offered number 2. Then there's a second iteration where they're offered co-CEOs, and Michael basically tells Frank, “Hey, look, if I'm gonna do this, I'm CEO”—or, “I'm chairman,” I think is even what he says—“and you're number 2, because we need to send a signal to the world that Disney is run by a creative executive”—he was one at Paramount—“and Frank had always sort of been more the numbers and legal and operations.”

David Rosenthal

Operational. He has a legal background.

Ben Gilbert

Right. So if this is going to work, I have to be the top guy. And Frank, this tells you everything about who Frank is and how the company would work for the next decade. Frank says, “Okay.”

David Rosenthal

Great.

Ben Gilbert

“That’s—”

David Rosenthal

No problem.

Ben Gilbert

“That makes sense to me. I'm perfectly happy to do it. I'll be your number 2, as long as we both just report to the board. I'll be president, you can be the chairman, but we both have our own relationship with the board.” Michael says, “Works for me.”

David Rosenthal

Yep. So on September 21, 1984, Michael Eisner and Frank Wells are introduced as the new CEO and president of the Walt Disney Company.

Ben Gilbert

Can we just talk about what dire straits this company was in, that they had to go, in a matter of weeks, find 2 people who had zero relationship with the company, had never worked there, and bring them in and make 1 of them chairman of the board? Also, we should say there was a giant comp package if the studio did well. There was massive profit sharing. There were big stock options issued. It was like, “We need a complete reboot, and we're bringing in these Hollywood guys from other studios to make it happen.”

David Rosenthal

Yep, yep, yep. They turn around quickly and bring in Jeffrey Katzenberg from Paramount as well to come in and run the studios under Michael at Disney.

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

And the plan is Disney's gonna become Paramount. Actually, 1 of the first items on their agenda is that they move the animation department out of the Burbank lot and basically exile Disney Animation over to Glendale. They're like, “Hey, we gotta make room for all the movie producers that we're gonna bring in here and make live-action films.”

Ben Gilbert

If you're 1 of these animators looking at it from the perspective of what makes this place special, and the very first thing that happens—let's say you were optimistic about change—is they kick the animators out of the building that Walt's office was in. This is the historic animation building. They clear them out and say, “Go to Glendale and this really rickety, run-down building instead.”

David Rosenthal

Not looking good for the core of the Disney flywheel here.

And then Eisner and Wells turn their attention to the parks, and this is where some light bulbs start to go off. One of the first things they do that ends up really setting up all the following success that Eisner, Wells, and Katzenberg have is raise the ticket prices at Disneyland and Disney World.

Ticket prices at the Disney parks have basically been flat since Walt died. The spirit around the company and the ethos of management is, “Walt wanted this to be accessible to everybody, and he set these prices, so we shouldn’t change them.” Never mind that inflation was rampant during the 1970s. So parking at Disney World and Disneyland when Eisner and Wells come in to run the company is still only a buck. They start raising ticket and parking prices at the parks. Not enormously.

Ben Gilbert

They had so much headroom here. I mean, you can criticize them all you want today for raising prices, but they had, I don’t know, 5 to 10X of headroom to raise the price, and it wouldn’t impact demand for a second back then.

David Rosenthal

Totally. I mean, you can raise the price of parking from $1 to $5, and nobody will care. But when you do that in an operational business like the parks, all of that incremental profit falls right to the bottom line. This is pure incremental cash flow into The Walt Disney Company because they’re not changing the operations at all. They’re just making more money. So Eisner and Wells turn around, take all these quick profits from the parks, and start investing them into building the live-action studios and running the Paramount playbook.

Sort of. That still didn’t generate as much cash as they’d actually need to finance the full film slate. So for each of the films—all 75 films they would make over the next 8 years—those were financed by a partner called Silver Screens.

Ah, interesting. So Michael’s singles-and-doubles strategy worked at Paramount. It works even better at Disney. They make Down and Out in Beverly Hills, Three Men and a Baby, Good Morning, Vietnam, Dead Poets Society, and Pretty Woman. These are all huge hits with singles-and-doubles-sized budgets.

Ben Gilbert

And they would get actors that would go on to be big, big names. I mean, you’re naming Robin Williams and Bette Midler.

David Rosenthal

Julia Roberts.

Ben Gilbert

And they were basically looking for ways to get deals on talent.

David Rosenthal

Yes.

Ben Gilbert

So a lot of times it was actors that had been in rehab and were looking to make a comeback. Or it was these up-and-comers, but it was, in many ways, a young Warren Buffett strategy of looking for cigar butts.

David Rosenthal

Yes.

Ben Gilbert

They knew they could get a guaranteed return on them.

David Rosenthal

But it works, man. All told, 27 of their first 33 movies are profitable, which in Hollywood, to have a hit rate like that, is like making 33 venture capital investments and only losing money on 6 of them.

Ben Gilbert

Right. Films are like books or like startups: power-law distributed.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

Normally.

David Rosenthal

But of course, along the way, as we all know, they do quickly realize that, hey, there’s some potential in this animation thing here, too.

Ben Gilbert

Well, this is a Roy E. Disney special. Roy views his job as the keeper of Walt’s vision and the keeper of the thing that made the company special. The thing that made the company special was this ridiculous flywheel, for lack of a better term, that they had, where you make amazing, compelling characters in universally relatable stories told through animation, drawn in a spectacular way that no other studio can do. Then you get to pump that into consumer products and parks, and kids pass it down to their kids, and it’s this beautiful, special business model.

David Rosenthal

You re-release the classics in theaters from the Disney Vault, and you make cash flow on that.

Ben Gilbert

And Roy’s sitting here looking at the current business of singles and doubles and live-action and being like, “Hey, we’ve got to do the Disney thing.”

David Rosenthal

Yep. So as part of the deal when they brought Eisner and Wells in, Roy had made them promise not to fully kill animation. Then he had made them make him—Roy—chairman of the animation division, under Katzenberg, who’s running all the studios.

Ben Gilbert

Okay, so flash back to the day that Michael and Frank take over. What had happened in the 13 years up to that point was that Disney Animation had only released 3 movies from 1971 to 1984, and they had a film called The Black Cauldron in development for nearly a decade.

David Rosenthal

Yeah, brutal.

Ben Gilbert

And morale is low. There’s even a sense among the current animators on staff that they weren’t making anything as good as what the company used to make.

David Rosenthal

And this is when all that young talent coming in from CalArts—Disney is either firing them, or they’re leaving because they’re just like, “Hey, this place is cooked.”

Ben Gilbert

Yes. Okay, so we brought up Jeffrey Katzenberg. I was having breakfast with Jeffrey to prep for this episode, and he told me this story where Michael calls Jeffrey into his office on his first day. This is before animation had been moved out to Glendale, so he’s still pointing down at the original animation building. He points to the ink-and-paint door, and Michael says to Jeffrey, “Do you know what they do down there?”

And Jeffrey goes, “No,” because Jeffrey’s background is live-action Paramount stuff with Michael.

David Rosenthal

And Michael says, “Neither do I.”

Ben Gilbert

He goes, “That’s where they made the animated movies, and that’s your problem.” And so Jeffrey, like Michael, doesn’t know anything about animation. When he gets in there and says, “Okay, I’m the boss now,” the animators start looking at this invasion from Hollywood. I mean, Disney had always existed outside the realm of Hollywood, doing their own thing, and now you’ve got, effectively, the suits coming into a culture that’s a bunch of wackadoos.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

I mean, it is the most fun, crazy place in animation, and this was quite the clash at first.

David Rosenthal

Yep. But at some point—and I don’t know, was it Katzenberg or was it Eisner and Wells who realized—“Hey, there actually is an opportunity here”?

Ben Gilbert

Well, it was both of them, and it would take a third guy, and that guy is Peter Schneider.

David Rosenthal

Hmm, yes.

Ben Gilbert

So his quote when accepting the job is, “I knew I could do no worse than The Black Cauldron. You can’t fall off the first floor.”

David Rosenthal

That’s great. That’s great.

Ben Gilbert

So Peter and Jeffrey come in and start making changes, and Peter had this license to examine everything. He was not afraid to break any process. He starts saying, “Why do we use this type of paint? Why do we make our own paint? Why do we use this style of animation pegs? Is there a better style? Why aren’t we using computers? It seems like that could really help us.”

It sends a cultural message here in ’84, ’85, and ’86 that things are really changing, and all the way from the top, we are trying to get better. We want to make something great. We want to make great films, and we want to debate each other over how good of an idea things are. We want to iterate, all in service of making a great film.

But this is exactly what they needed: new blood, a complete shakeup. There was good talent there, but they were just wasting away, not being led at all. There was this sort of dichotomy where the old guard was stuck in their ways, and the young people who came in with all these fresh ideas were met with deaf ears. They’d never been part of anything successful, so they didn’t know what success looked like or felt like.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

So they slowly start to turn it around in animation, at first with films like The Great Mouse Detective in 1986—nothing to write home about. They did Oliver & Company in 1988, and that gets a little bit more press. People are saying, “Hey, look, Disney Animation can make good things that are commercially successful.” But then the big idea, the crazy one that really worked, was to refine the formula of the Disney animated movie and make them musicals.

David Rosenthal

Yes.

Ben Gilbert

These are going to be Broadway musicals, but animated.

David Rosenthal

Yes. We’re going to turn these things from cartoons with music to musicals that are cartoons, and it makes all the difference in the world.

Ben Gilbert

From story arc to the type of music. I mean, Snow White had some really catchy tunes: “Whistle While You Work.”

David Rosenthal

“Heigh-Ho,” blah blah, yeah, yeah.

Ben Gilbert

But they weren’t musicals.

David Rosenthal

No.

Ben Gilbert

And they didn’t follow the musical stage-performance story structure. So Jeffrey Katzenberg recruits a guy named Howard Ashman.

David Rosenthal

Yes.

Ben Gilbert

Interestingly, he was introduced by David Geffen.

David Rosenthal

David Geffen connects them, right?

Ben Gilbert

Yes. Howard, when he hears the word Disney, instantly says, “I want to work in animation. I feel there is a connection between animation and musical theater.” And I don’t think this was obvious to anyone else. This is a unique Howard insight. So Howard brings along Alan Menken.

David Rosenthal

Composer Alan Menken.

Ben Gilbert

The two of them had done Little Shop of Horrors together, and they hit the ground running. They come into Disney Animation, and the first film that they work on together is The Little Mermaid.

David Rosenthal

Yeah. These guys are geniuses. When we really started to dig into the question of who was responsible for the Disney Renaissance—who created these incredible movies and totally turned around Disney?—it’s these guys.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah. They weren’t the original story pitch.

David Rosenthal

No, and they weren't the executives.

Ben Gilbert

Right.

David Rosenthal

But they brought the magic.

Ben Gilbert

Howard has this great quote where he says, “Well, in every great Broadway musical, the third song, the leading lady goes and she sits on something. It might be a rock, it might be a trash can, and she sings a song to the world, telling the audience what she wants. If she could only have this thing in life, and then the whole rest of the film, we root for them.” That is the entire crux of the play: What does the leading lady want? We hope that she gets there.

He’s like, “I just realized we could do that in Little Mermaid.” So “Part of Your World” is just the setup song for Ariel sitting there, explaining to everyone, “I just want to go where the people are. I want to see them dancing, walking around on—what do you call them? Oh, feet.” It’s this amazing lyrical explanation of what she feels as a character that ends up carrying the whole movie.

Howard is also the one who says, “Hey, that little crab, should we make him Jamaican?”

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

And that leads to the whole song “Under the Sea.” These are formative songs that are in at least your and my generation’s heads forever, and why we watched the films a million times when we were kids.

David Rosenthal

Yep, and why they survive. My girls are watching these movies today. So The Little Mermaid comes out in 1989. It’s a classic.

Ben Gilbert

But it’s not like it blew the doors off at the box office, and it had a pretty big budget. Animation grew its headcount from that low of 150 people, when it was left for dead, to 550 people. Here’s a great quote from our friend Ben Cohen at The Wall Street Journal in a piece that he wrote: “Once upon a time, Disney movies got beat at the box office by rom-coms. The Little Mermaid made less money than When Harry Met Sally in 1989. Only when it came out on home video in 1990, and kids could watch VHS tapes of The Little Mermaid anytime they wanted, did the iconic children’s movie become truly massive.”

So, if you’re just looking at box office, you’re kind of like, “Okay, I see green shoots here. We’re really onto something. People love this.” But it’s not like it magically made the company. It’s not like we generated a bunch of profits.

David Rosenthal

Which, look, trust in Disney Animation had eroded, right? People were used to crap coming out of the studio.

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

So they do The Rescuers Down Under in 1990. It’s fine, but it’s not one of the great Disney Renaissance films the way that The Little Mermaid and the one we’re about to talk about are.

David Rosenthal

And then Beauty and the Beast. I know The Lion King is bigger, but Beauty and the Beast is my favorite of these movies.

Ben Gilbert

It was my first movie in theaters.

David Rosenthal

Oh, wow.

Ben Gilbert

And this is another Howard Ashman special.

David Rosenthal

Yep. It’s so good.

Ben Gilbert

Yes. So Beauty and the Beast builds on the momentum of the team that trusts each other and the new style of musicals as animation. This one actually lights up the box office: $330 million at the box office on a $25 million production budget.

David Rosenthal

Man. Disney Animation is back.

Ben Gilbert

They do it again the next year. I’m telling you, year after year after year: 1992 with Aladdin.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

500 million—

David Rosenthal

500 million is what I saw, right?

Ben Gilbert

That’s right.

David Rosenthal

A half a billion.

Ben Gilbert

On a $28 million production budget, and they’re pulling out the stops on the Disney stars at this point. They’re bringing in Robin Williams—

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

—to be the Genie.

David Rosenthal

From Good Morning, Vietnam to the Genie.

Ben Gilbert

That’s right. Then they do it again 2 years later with The Lion King in 1994. This time, it’s a little bit bigger production budget: $45 million. It’s very sophisticated animation.

David Rosenthal

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Give us the box office.

Ben Gilbert

James Earl Jones.

David Rosenthal

How much money did this thing make?

Ben Gilbert

This brings in $750 million.

David Rosenthal

Yeah, unprecedented at the time.

Ben Gilbert

The most successful traditionally animated, hand-drawn film in history.

David Rosenthal

In history.

Ben Gilbert

Michael Eisner actually announces then that they are going to build a new animation building and bring all of the animators back onto the Disney lot.

David Rosenthal

Yes, back to Burbank.

Ben Gilbert

As a fun little aside, Disneyland, when it was originally supposed to be a little 15-acre park or something right next to the Disney lot before it became a much bigger project, is actually on this plot of land.

David Rosenthal

Where the new animation building is today? So great. So great.

Ben Gilbert

So that’s the Disney Renaissance.

David Rosenthal

So it’s interesting, right? The Little Mermaid cost $40 million to make, and then Beauty and the Beast and Aladdin were cheaper. You said production budgets ballooned back up with The Lion King, but only to $45 million. How are they making these so cheaply?

Ben Gilbert

Yes. The process of actually doing the hand-drawn animation—and it was all still hand-drawn in this era—had progressed from actual inking and painting to skipping the inking step, because they used xerography. You could directly transfer the paper sketches onto the transparent—

David Rosenthal

On the cels.

Ben Gilbert

—celluloid for each frame so that you could photograph it.

But the thing that Disney does here during the Renaissance films is something called CAPS, starting in 1990: the Computer Animation Production System. This was really pushed by Roy E. Disney, who felt this was a big part of his Uncle Walt’s legacy—pushing the frontier of technology and how investing in new technology can push the state of the art in storytelling.

Computers had advanced a lot by 1990, and so they got to thinking, “Why are we still using physical paint to color in the lines on every single one of these hand-drawn frames?” Also, multiplane cameras were really, really expensive to operate, so they started cheaping out in the dark times. Rather than photographing really complicated 6-plane animation, they would just slap one animation cel down, put a background underneath it, photograph it, and move on to the next one.

They invested $10 million in fixed costs into software that could do 2 things. One was effectively Microsoft Paint for 2D animation, where you could look at all the lines on a computer, select a color, bring over your little paint tool, and dump your bucket of color into an enclosed area. It sounds like I’m describing something where you’re like, “Yes, we’ve all used MS Paint,” but this was rocket science at the time.

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

This was really cool, and it meant that not only did you not have to do inking anymore, you didn’t do painting either. On top of that, CAPS was a super-duper multiplane camera that could do an unlimited number of planes, not just limited to whatever you could actually do in Walt’s era. So you could do it faster and cheaper without actually operating the multiplane camera.

The Little Mermaid, which only had 3 multiplane shots because it was before CAPS, had hundreds by the time you got to The Lion King. So it’s better, it’s faster, and it keeps the budget down.

David Rosenthal

Yeah. Seems odd that Disney, a media company, would develop this computer software technology in-house.

Ben Gilbert

Yes. They relied on a partner who was getting really, really good at early computer graphics: Pixar.

David Rosenthal

Yeah. Mm-hmm. Well, put a pin in that.

Ben Gilbert

Yes. One other fun thing, because this is cool nerdy stuff: The ballroom dancing scene in Beauty and the Beast has this crazy cool camera pan. It’s a quick shot, but it’s one of the most memorable shots of the whole film. The background was actually 3D-rendered using Pixar software.

David Rosenthal

Oh, cool.

Ben Gilbert

Then they composited, using CAPS, a 2D hand-drawn Belle and the Beast dancing, and that is the first time they used any 3D animation—

David Rosenthal

3D animation.

Ben Gilbert

—in any Disney film.

David Rosenthal

Oh, that’s so cool.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah. If you go back and watch it, you’re like, “Whoa, yeah, the background is computer-generated.”

David Rosenthal

Yeah. Oh, that’s awesome.

3. The Disney Flywheel Returns

Okay. So on the back of all these Disney Renaissance animated hits, the flywheel is soaring again at Disney—for the first time since Walt died, really. The core animated IP at the center of the company is back. It’s inspiring new generations of children and their parents, and Eisner and Wells not only embrace all of it, they extend the flywheel even further.

So they add 3 new incredible extensions to the Disney business model, all based on these characters and stories and this timeless IP that Disney Animation is once again creating. The first: home video. Man, this is a banger.

The Disney Vault already existed. Disney would take their classic movies, like Snow White or Cinderella, and re-release them in theaters every 7 years or so to get a new generation of children exposed to them.

Ben Gilbert

Which was the only way to watch movies.

David Rosenthal

Right.

Ben Gilbert

My brain can’t understand this, since home video has existed my entire life.

David Rosenthal

No Disney+ back then, baby.

Ben Gilbert

Nope. Until 1985, there was no way to watch a Disney film outside of a theater.

David Rosenthal

Yep, yep. So Eisner and Wells and Katzenberg are like, “Well, we can do the same thing with home video.” VHS exists now. It’s a big thing, with high penetration in U.S. households.

None of the old people at Disney want to do it. Roy's opposed. The family's opposed.

Ben Gilbert

It's heresy.

David Rosenthal

It's heresy. Michael Eisner has to convene the whole Disney family and get their approval to release Pinocchio as the first of the classics they're going to put on VHS in 1985.

Ben Gilbert

And they're starting low stakes. I mean, Pinocchio—

David Rosenthal

Pinocchio, right.

Ben Gilbert

—has already been re-released in theaters 5 times.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

Seven years apart. You would think you're not cannibalizing much at this point on the 6th re-release—

David Rosenthal

Yes, of Pinocchio. So they agree to a very limited 1.7 million-unit run of Pinocchio on VHS.

Ben Gilbert

I'm glad you found this, too.

David Rosenthal

Priced at the very high $29.95 at retail per copy, it sells out instantaneously. So that's $50 million in gross merchandise sales, with basically zero incremental production costs except for the couple of bucks of printing the cassette tapes. Then they do it the next year with Cinderella, which proves the exact same thing.

They do a theatrical re-release of Cinderella on schedule. It does $34 million in box office revenue, and then they put out the VHS home video: 6 million units. Between the two of them, that is $200 million in gross revenue from Cinderella. I mean, it's basically another box office smash, for free, that they're getting here.

Ben Gilbert

So it's this crazy thing they discovered where it seems not to hurt anything or dampen any demand, because Michael Eisner would later famously point out, "People buy these tapes, but they break and they lose them."

David Rosenthal

Right. Right.

Ben Gilbert

It doesn't make people any less excited to go to the theater 6 or 7 years later.

David Rosenthal

You know what kids are really good at?

Ben Gilbert

Losing VHS tapes.

David Rosenthal

Right. It's not like you're permanently destroying an asset now that those tapes exist in the world. No.

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

It only increases the demand for more Cinderella now that the tapes are out.

Ben Gilbert

This is the core philosophy behind how Walt Disney's flywheel business strategy works. I had read that Disney was keeping between $17 to $20 a pop—

David Rosenthal

Wow.

Ben Gilbert

—in profits per VHS tape that they were selling, because I think they had so much leverage over the retailers.

David Rosenthal

So home video quickly becomes a billion-dollar business for the Walt Disney Company. It's the 2nd-biggest profit center for the whole company after the theme parks. And that's just re-releasing the classics. Then they start doing home video of the new hits that are coming out, and, man, does that blow the doors off.

Ben Gilbert

Having a home video release channel instantly makes whatever you want to spend on animation worth it. It is this sudden renewed focus on animation because they realize, "Oh my God, there's a way to get value out of this."

David Rosenthal

Yes. The numbers on this: Aladdin sells 30 million VHS tapes in 1993.

Ben Gilbert

So that's $900 million in sales?

David Rosenthal

Yeah, in sales.

Ben Gilbert

In sales of tapes.

David Rosenthal

Yep, yep. And then The Lion King eclipses it in 1995 when it comes out on VHS with 32 million units—the best-selling VHS of all time, period, in history, ever.

Ben Gilbert

That's $1 billion of The Lion King tapes sold.

David Rosenthal

Yes, and Disney is getting roughly a 50% or greater cash flow margin out of that. You should think of each of those as half a billion dollars in Disney's bank account.

Ben Gilbert

Because these films are already quite profitable from the box office. The budgets are low and the box office is super high.

David Rosenthal

I mean, The Lion King is just ridiculous, right? $750 million at the box office on a $45 million production. So let's say Disney makes $300 million in cash flow out of the theatrical release.

Ben Gilbert

Minus distribution and marketing expenses. I don't know, $250 million?

David Rosenthal

Yeah, okay, sure, $250 million. Add a half-billion from home video, and you're at three-quarters of a billion dollars in cash out of The Lion King within a year of release. And then we'll get to what else comes out of The Lion King in a second.

Ben Gilbert

And I don't think there was much backend at that point for any of the actors. So I think this is literally just going to Disney.

David Rosenthal

No, this is also why it fits so well with Eisner's philosophy. Even though they were signing stars to be voice actors, like Robin Williams as the Genie, they weren't getting paid much. These were very different deals, especially back then, from the live-action films that were starting to get expensive and where actors were making real money.

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

So that's home video. Next, they launch Disney retail stores across the country.

Ben Gilbert

That's right.

David Rosenthal

Do you remember these? I spent so many—

Ben Gilbert

Yes.

David Rosenthal

—weeks at the mall when I was a kid in Disney retail stores.

Ben Gilbert

Plastered with Disney stuff and giant piles of stuffed animals. It was a hallucinogenic experience to go in there.

David Rosenthal

It was peak 1990s.

Ben Gilbert

Yes.

David Rosenthal

So they build more than 750 Disney Stores—retail stores—in basically every mall in America. Now, between home video, where for the first time you've got kids and families watching these movies over and over and over again at home, and the weekends when these American families go to the mall and buy the merch at the Disney Store, they revel in all this Disney. It is back to the peak of Disney under Walt, where it just takes over America, basically.

Ben Gilbert

Yep. I bet people of our generation have a unique relationship with Disney because of this period, because we were there in such a heyday. I bet people who are 10 or 15 years older than us don't have the same Disney relationship, since they were sort of grown-ups by the time the Eisner era hit.

David Rosenthal

Yeah, I mean, it was the dark period when they were children.

Ben Gilbert

Yes.

David Rosenthal

And you have to get children to make this work.

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

Then they pass it on to their children, and so on. So, okay: home video, Disney retail, and then, 3, Broadway. This is an absolute masterstroke. When we first started the research, we were like, "Oh, yeah, we'll put a thing about The Lion King musical in there, and Broadway. They do that. Great. It's a thing that Eisner and his team do in the '90s."

Ben Gilbert

Right. It must be like Disney on Ice—some random extension that I'm not really sure how much it contributed, but cool that they did that, and very artistic of them.

David Rosenthal

Okay. So first they do Beauty and the Beast. That's a big success on Broadway. They end up buying the New Amsterdam Theatre. Disney owns that in New York now. Then they put on The Lion King musical.

Ben Gilbert

Which is spectacular.

David Rosenthal

Oh, amazing.

Ben Gilbert

I haven't been in, I don't know, 15 years or something, but I have a visceral memory of the parade of animals walking down the aisle and how uniquely they did the costume designs, with the faces of the animals sort of hovering above their heads.

David Rosenthal

It's art. It's back to Walt Disney. It's art and commerce.

Ben Gilbert

Yes.

David Rosenthal

Right?

Ben Gilbert

Yes.

David Rosenthal

It is absolute art. And it becomes the highest-grossing Broadway show in history. It's still running today, and if you add up the gross on Broadway over the past 30 years, plus the touring company, The Lion King musical has grossed over $11 billion in total revenue in its run. I think that makes it the single highest-grossing entertainment product in history, in any medium: film, music, TV, video games, or other Broadway shows.

Ben Gilbert

What?

David Rosenthal

The Lion King musical is the highest-grossing piece of entertainment ever created in history.

Ben Gilbert

Of any medium, the highest-grossing is a Broadway musical?

David Rosenthal

Yep. Of a single, non-episodic piece of media—a single story concept.

Ben Gilbert

Hmm.

David Rosenthal

The Lion King musical.

Ben Gilbert

How is it $11 billion? Because even the biggest box office films do $2.8—

David Rosenthal

Two—

Ben Gilbert

—$2.9 billion.

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

I mean, that's Avatar, that's Avengers: Endgame. And then if you were to add an entire home video on top of that, we already said The Lion King home video was $1 billion.

David Rosenthal

Yeah, you double it, maybe more. Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

How do they get to $11 billion for a Broadway musical?

David Rosenthal

It's been running for 30 years.

Ben Gilbert

30 years.

David Rosenthal

And they're packing the house around the world.

Ben Gilbert

Traveling show. Pretty high ticket price to go to a musical.

David Rosenthal

Yep. It's in London, it's in New York, and it's got the traveling company.

Ben Gilbert

Wow.

David Rosenthal

Yeah. Even spread out over 30 years, that means it has generated $350 million in gross revenue for Disney every single year. That's an extra hit movie every year.

Ben Gilbert

And they own it outright?

David Rosenthal

Yeah. They have to share theater revenue with theaters, especially with the touring company when they go to theaters around the world, but that's the same as—

Ben Gilbert

Wow.

David Rosenthal

—any movie. It's another movie every year.

Ben Gilbert

Wow. $11 billion. Fascinating.

David Rosenthal

Absolutely incredible.

Ben Gilbert

So Eisner in this era really did crack the extensions of the brand thing, and he also kind of dipped his foot back into traditional marketing more. Didn't they start running a whole bunch of "Come to Disneyland" commercials?

David Rosenthal

Yes.

Ben Gilbert

And explaining the rides. I think this is also when they started the campaign where the winning Super Bowl MVP would always say—

David Rosenthal

Yes, they’ll go to Disney World.

Ben Gilbert

…“I’m going to Disney World” right after they won the Super Bowl.

David Rosenthal

Yes, yes. Well, this is the other big thing that Michael Eisner does: he transforms the parks. The parks were obviously Walt’s genius and part of the original Walt vision and business model for what Disney would become, but they’re just theme parks when Michael takes over.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah, they’re not really resorts.

David Rosenthal

He makes the parks, and especially Florida, a resort. It goes from, “Ah, yeah, we got Disney World, and we got Epcot, and sure, come to Florida.” They build the Grand Floridian Hotel. They build the Swan. They build the Dolphin. They start the Disney Vacation Club timeshare program with Old Key West Resort—

Ben Gilbert

Mm.

David Rosenthal

…which my family was a member of. So what did we do every year? We went to Walt Disney World every single year. It was a resort. It was a vacation. They add Hollywood Studios. Then they add the Animal Kingdom. They completely transform what a theme park resort is.

Ben Gilbert

And the Animal Kingdom in particular is a wild pitch. What if we build an actual animal kingdom with lions and zebras? It won’t feel like a zoo. It’ll feel like you’re on an African safari when you’re out doing it. They changed the park from something that could compete with going to a baseball game on a Saturday to something that could compete with your European 5-day vacation.

David Rosenthal

Yes. Yes. And they get into all the real estate all around it, all those hotels that they’re developing, having Imagineering develop. It’s not just Marriotts that they’re throwing in there.

Ben Gilbert

Right. And with him raising prices, plowing cash into building out the next 10, 15, 20 years of parks, and attracting, “Oh, I’m not going to spend $300 here. I’m going to drop $3,000 here on a family vacation,” this starts to become a behemoth business of its own.

David Rosenthal

Totally. I mean, it sets the stage for today. Last year, Disney Parks and Experiences contributed $10 billion in operating profit to Disney, and it starts with this.

Ben Gilbert

Nuts.

David Rosenthal

Now, it’s not all sunshine and rainbows on the parks side during the Eisner era.

Ben Gilbert

Euro Disney?

David Rosenthal

There is Euro Disney, which costs $4 billion to develop and just loses money for years. The glib line that I like about this is it took Disney a decade to figure out that European parents want to drink wine while their kids run around. There’s more to it than that, but—

Ben Gilbert

And also, I’m not sure that Europeans love being called Euro.

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

If you live in Paris—

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

…you consider yourself French or Parisian. You don’t consider yourself Euro.

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

So they rename it Disneyland Paris. They make a whole bunch of changes. They eventually right the ship, and there’s a global macro thing that changes, too. They sort of opened into a recession, but yeah, that was a disaster for a while.

David Rosenthal

Yep, yep. But that aside, I mean, man, by the time we’re in the mid-’90s here, Disney and the Eisner, Wells, Katzenberg dream team is just crushing it. Operating profit at the company goes from well under $300 million when they take over in 1984 to just under $2 billion a decade later. So, you know, almost 8X operating profit in—

Ben Gilbert

In a decade.

David Rosenthal

…a decade.

Ben Gilbert

Wow.

David Rosenthal

I mean—

Ben Gilbert

And it had been declining. I mean, it fell 25% in 2 years before they joined.

David Rosenthal

Yeah. Those 3 guys didn’t just save Disney. They made Disney flourish in a way that Walt only could’ve dreamed of.

Ben Gilbert

It is quite reasonable to say that Disney has never been as successful as they were in this period from the early to mid-’90s.

David Rosenthal

Well, I’ve got the stats to prove it. So by 1994, Disney’s market cap hits $22 billion, up 10X from when the Eisner crew took over, and it becomes the highest-valued of all the traditional media companies. More valuable than Time Warner, more valuable than Viacom, more valuable than Fox and News Corp. Disney is on top of the world, and it’s all about to fall apart.

Ben Gilbert

Okay, so David, they’re flying high. What could possibly go wrong?

David Rosenthal

Oh, man. Well, 1994 is a great year for Disney as a business because The Lion King comes out. It’s a terrible year for Disney as a company, and there are 3 huge blows that hit the company in quick succession.

First, on Easter Sunday, 1994, Frank Wells is shockingly and tragically killed in a helicopter crash while heli-skiing. This is terrible on every level. For the company and the management team, for all that Michael Eisner was, Ben, as you said, the creative executive and had to be the public face of The Walt Disney Company and the Disney Renaissance, Frank was the guy behind the scenes holding it all together. He absolutely was the yin to Michael’s yang, and all of a sudden he’s gone. One day he’s here, one day he’s gone.

Ben Gilbert

And there are big personalities at the table. Michael’s a big personality. Jeffrey’s a big personality.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

And Frank was the peacekeeper, the one who could always relate to everyone, be the intermediary, and calm people down when they were hot about something.

David Rosenthal

I mean, he was the guy who, when Michael said, “I need to be number one,” said, “Okay, no problem. Let’s all go make magic together.”

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

And that force is just not at the company anymore. So then 3 months later, while Michael is at the annual Allen & Company conference in Sun Valley, Idaho, he starts experiencing chest pains and has to be rushed back to L.A. into emergency quadruple-bypass open-heart surgery.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah, and he’s out of commission. I mean, he is recovering from open-heart surgery in the hospital while they’re feeling the loss of Frank Wells.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

There are a lot of decisions that need to get made, and there are a lot of personnel clashes that need to get sorted through, but what can Michael do?

David Rosenthal

He’s in the hospital.

Ben Gilbert

He’s literally on the operating table. He even thought there was some chance he might not make it. He gave his wife instructions: “Hey, if I don’t wake up, do X, Y, and Z.” Harrowing times.

David Rosenthal

Yeah, yeah. So then in the middle of this, Katzenberg quits.

Ben Gilbert

Well, there are a lot of different sides to this story.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

One version of it is that Jeffrey was promised the number 2 job at the company if Frank ever moved on or retired or anything.

David Rosenthal

Yep. That was certainly Jeffrey’s understanding, that Michael—

Ben Gilbert

Yes.

David Rosenthal

…had promised him that.

Ben Gilbert

Yes. There were other perspectives, including from Roy E. Disney, that, “Hey, Jeffrey is great in the job that he has, running the studios”—animation and the other film studios—“but he’s by no means ready to be the president of The Walt Disney Company.”

David Rosenthal

Which, again, at this point is much more than just the film studios. You know, it’s all of those other businesses that we talked about.

Ben Gilbert

Right. And so we need to sit tight for a little while. Jeffrey’s interpretation of this, which is again quite reasonable, is, “Well, I thought you told me this was mine. I am itching to do something bigger than my current responsibility. I’ve been a good team player. I just created some of the most successful movies ever.”

David Rosenthal

Iconic IP.

Ben Gilbert

That’s right, with the Disney Renaissance films, The Lion King and Beauty and the Beast, and all these. “If you don’t think I have a future here to become president of this company, then I’m out. I’m going to go do something else.”

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

So he elects that option and leaves.

David Rosenthal

Yep. And he doesn’t just leave. He leaves and starts a competitor.

Ben Gilbert

And starts a lawsuit.

David Rosenthal

Yes, yes. He also sues The Walt Disney Company for bonuses that he was owed. They end up settling that lawsuit many years later for a reported $280 million. But yeah, he leaves and starts a competitor.

Ben Gilbert

Yes.

David Rosenthal

DreamWorks.

Ben Gilbert

Yes.

David Rosenthal

With Steven Spielberg and David Geffen, and the intention is that DreamWorks is going to be a full-stack Disney competitor. They’re going to do live action. They’re going to do animation. They’re going to do music with David Geffen. They’re going to do television. They’re going to do video games. Basically, the whole Disney flywheel minus the parks.

But then they sign up with Universal as their movie distributor, and they set up their headquarters on Universal’s lot, which is also a theme park. So, yeah.

Ben Gilbert

Suddenly, a very, very formidable competitor.

David Rosenthal

And then they decide to build the DreamWorks Animation studio just down the street from Disney in Glendale, and they start poaching the Disney animators. One of the first people Katzenberg recruits is Brenda Chapman, remember, from CalArts—

Ben Gilbert

Ah.

David Rosenthal

—in room A-113, who was head of story for The Lion King. DreamWorks Animation would soon go on to create Shrek, which would do half a billion dollars at the box office. This is the first time Disney has had something like this: a full-stack competitor in its backyard.

Ben Gilbert

Yep. Adding insult to injury here, you might say, “Okay, well, animation is roaring, and it wasn’t all Jeffrey, so they should be fine.” Sadly, Howard Ashman passed away from AIDS—

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

—just a couple of years—

David Rosenthal

A couple years earlier.

Ben Gilbert

—before this, and there’s a vacuum of Howard’s presence in the animation department and in the films that they would go on to make from here.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

So, from here, what comes out of Disney Animation is—

David Rosenthal

The next one is Pocahontas, right?

Ben Gilbert

Yep, then The Hunchback of Notre Dame, Hercules—

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

—Mulan, Tarzan—

David Rosenthal

Tarzan.

Ben Gilbert

—Fantasia 2000, a movie called Dinosaur—

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

—in 2000, which I actually remember fondly.

David Rosenthal

I think that was Disney’s first 3D computer-animated movie.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah, exactly.

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

The Emperor’s New Groove, Atlantis, Lilo & Stitch, and Treasure Planet.

David Rosenthal

Yeah. Some of those films—none of them are The Lion King.

Ben Gilbert

Right.

David Rosenthal

So—

Ben Gilbert

Right.

David Rosenthal

So yeah, in the vacuum left by all of this, Michael decides that the person he’s going to promote to number two, president and chief operating officer of The Walt Disney Company, is himself.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah. It’s the Michael Eisner company now, through and through.

David Rosenthal

Yep. He was great. He was eminently qualified.

Ben Gilbert

I mean, the last 10 years have been unbelievable.

David Rosenthal

Yeah. But it’s a big job on top of an already very big job.

Ben Gilbert

And really what he’s saying is, “Look, there’s no one obviously ready to be number two across films and TV and the parks, and so until we figure that out, I’m just going to be the guy.”

David Rosenthal

Yep, yep. And he’s also about to pull the trigger on a pretty fundamental change in what The Walt Disney Company was, that he had been planning for a couple years. He’s been sniffing around the TV networks.

Ben Gilbert

Yes. And wasn’t there some regulatory—

David Rosenthal

Yes.

Ben Gilbert

—reason why suddenly this was possible?

David Rosenthal

Yes. So back in 1993, the FCC had repealed a law called the Financial Interest and Syndication Rules that prohibited TV networks from owning the programs that they aired.

Ben Gilbert

Right, because the thinking behind this, I think, in the ’70s when it was enacted, is that these TV broadcast networks—the big 3 networks—are kind of a monopoly on content in the country. There’s no cable. So if those companies basically vertically integrate and own a movie studio, and then they air those movies on just the 3 networks, then we kind of have a problem, because there’s not enough competition in this marketplace.

But as 2 decades go by, now you’ve got cable TV, and suddenly you’ve hamstrung all these—

Yes.

—networks, and the networks aren’t allowed to produce their own content while they’re trying to fight this existential battle of, “Oh my God, cable’s coming in and eating our lunch.”

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

So, of course, the thing that makes sense—which is great; I love it when laws get repealed when they don’t make sense anymore—is that law is repealed, and suddenly you now have open season on movie studios and TV networks trying to combine.

David Rosenthal

Yep. So Michael is sniffing around.

Ben Gilbert

He’s interested in CBS first, right?

David Rosenthal

Yeah, he’s sniffing around CBS. NBC is up for sale. He talks to ABC, does a typical Michael lowball offer—

Ben Gilbert

Lowball, yeah.

David Rosenthal

—that goes nowhere. But Michael had actually started his career at ABC, so Barry Diller and Michael were TV guys at ABC before they went to Paramount.

Ben Gilbert

Right.

David Rosenthal

So he knew everybody there. And then at the Sun Valley Conference the next year, in 1995—

Ben Gilbert

It’s always at Sun Valley.

David Rosenthal

—always at Sun Valley—Michael strikes a deal for The Walt Disney Company to acquire Capital Cities/ABC for $19 billion, which was the second-largest acquisition in history to that point. Man, crazy. $19 billion—that’s quaint today.

Ben Gilbert

The only bigger one was RJR Nabisco.

David Rosenthal

Yes, yes, which is going to come up here in a second.

Ben Gilbert

And I think there’s so much great lore around this, but I think this was a parking lot conversation where Michael had been hoping to run into Warren Buffett.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

And he finally did, and Warren calls over Tom Murphy, who was there too.

David Rosenthal

Yep, CEO of Capital Cities/ABC.

Ben Gilbert

And they kind of start talking, and I think within days, maybe a week or something, they’ve got a deal hammered out.

David Rosenthal

Yep, yep. Warren Buffett and Berkshire were the largest shareholder in Capital Cities/ABC, which had been created a decade earlier in the famous minnow-swallows-whale transaction.

Ben Gilbert

That’s right. A lot of listeners probably won’t know this, but ABC is actually not the parent company that Disney was going after to acquire. ABC was owned by something called Capital Cities, which had unbelievably managed to acquire ABC even though ABC was much bigger than Capital Cities.

David Rosenthal

Yeah, it was about 4 times bigger.

Ben Gilbert

You might say, “How is this possible?” Well, they had the financial backing of Warren—

David Rosenthal

Warren Buffett.

Ben Gilbert

—and—

David Rosenthal

And Berkshire Hathaway.

Ben Gilbert

That’s right, that’s right. So it’s basically using Berkshire Hathaway’s capital and the small company of Capital Cities to jointly buy and control ABC.

David Rosenthal

Yeah, one of Warren Buffett’s many genius deals.

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

So Buffett and Berkshire are the largest shareholders in Capital Cities/ABC here, so really the person that Eisner is pitching is Buffett. Now, Ben, you mentioned something really important, which was that the reason these laws had been repealed by the FCC was the new competition from cable TV.

I mean, the broadcast networks used to have this monopoly on television content in America. Now, all of a sudden here in the ’90s, cable and pay TV is just this explosion of content in America, and the broadcast networks are under threat. So the broadcast networks like ABC went from historically being these great businesses to, eh, these kind of okay businesses.

Ben Gilbert

Hmm.

David Rosenthal

Because so much of American viewing time, and thus advertising dollars, had transitioned over to cable. But it just so happened that buried within ABC was the single best cable asset in the history of mankind: the Entertainment and Sports Programming Network, better known as ESPN.

Ben Gilbert

Yes.

David Rosenthal

Oh, man, the history of ESPN is completely crazy on its own. It was acquired by the Getty Oil Company just months after it was founded, when it was still a startup. Texaco then acquired Getty and sold off ESPN to ABC. This happened in 1984. ABC wanted a financial partner for the deal, so they brought in Nabisco as a 20% minority partner in ESPN.

Ben Gilbert

Huh.

David Rosenthal

Why?

Ben Gilbert

I guess, in theory, Nabisco was going to get some advertising synergies for their CPG products. I don’t know.

David Rosenthal

Okay.

Ben Gilbert

It doesn’t matter, because the next year, Nabisco gets taken private by KKR in *Barbarians at the Gate*, the largest deal in history.

David Rosenthal

Right, the largest acquisition of all time.

Ben Gilbert

Yep, yep.

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

As part of that, they sell off this 20% ESPN minority stake to the Hearst Corporation, which still owns it to this day.

David Rosenthal

And Hearst, over the ensuing 4 decades, just gets billions and billions of dollars of free cash flow out of ESPN.

Ben Gilbert

In a complete free ride.

David Rosenthal

Free ride.

Ben Gilbert

They don't have to—

David Rosenthal

Doesn't have to lift a finger.

Ben Gilbert

That's right. That's right.

David Rosenthal

But yeah, ESPN became this juggernaut, and they actually invented a whole second revenue line for cable networks in addition to advertising: the affiliate-fee business model.

Ben Gilbert

Because before, cable channels would just let themselves show up in a cable bundle. They'd let the cable bundle distribute and say, "Oh, well, we're selling ads, so can you just do the distribution for us, so that anybody who's buying your cable bundle will get my channel and thus see my ads?" And pre-ESPN, that was the whole business model.

David Rosenthal

Even more than that, I think for a lot of startup cable networks, the dollars went the other way. I think they were even paying—

Ben Gilbert

Oh, right, they would pay to be included—

David Rosenthal

—the cable operators to carry the channel, right?

Ben Gilbert

Yes. And ESPN sort of realizes they were buying sports rights to broadcast leagues, and they needed to cover their costs. So they asked the bundlers—the cable companies—"Hey, will you pay us X cents per viewer so that we can actually afford to go buy these rights?"

David Rosenthal

The money to buy the sports rights. That may have been how it started, but pretty quickly, though, ESPN, and then within ABC once ABC owns it, realizes that sports rights are the biggest point of leverage that they could possibly have over the cable operators. All ESPN has to do is threaten to pull the plug on any given cable operator and say to their thousands or millions of subscribers out there, "Oh, hey, you wanted to watch those NBA games, or those MLB games, or those NFL games, or see those highlights on SportsCenter? Sorry, we're in a carriage dispute with ESPN. We're not going to be able to show those."

Ben Gilbert

A stick that still gets used today.

David Rosenthal

Right? I mean, when that happens, people actually show up at the doorstep of the cable operators and basically riot.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah.

David Rosenthal

Americans love nothing more than their sports.

Ben Gilbert

Yep, that is pricing power right there.

David Rosenthal

And so once ESPN figures out this business model, it just becomes this incredible juggernaut. At first, Ben, like you said, they get the cable operators to pay them a few cents per subscriber that gets the ESPN channel, and it goes up to a dollar, then $2 a month, and then $5 a month. Do you know what ESPN's current affiliate-fee average deal is per month with pay-TV operators?

Ben Gilbert

I know it's the single highest-paid channel by, like, 3X?

David Rosenthal

4X.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah, much higher than—I'm going to guess, I don't know, $10 per subscriber.

David Rosenthal

Yeah. $9.42 per month per subscriber that the cable operators pay ESPN. This is billions and billions and billions of highly predictable cash-money dollars flowing into ESPN.

Ben Gilbert

Contractually guaranteed.

David Rosenthal

Virtually guaranteed every month.

Ben Gilbert

I mean, yeah, sports are the reason, especially today, that people are buying cable.

David Rosenthal

Right.

Ben Gilbert

And ESPN is very aware of that value that they provide to the bundle.

David Rosenthal

They are very good at value capture.

Ben Gilbert

Yes. Yes.

David Rosenthal

So, back to the Disney–Capital Cities/ABC deal here in 1995. I don't think, if they're really honest, that Disney and Michael Eisner really knew how big ESPN was going to become. At this point, ESPN had 66 million cable subscribers, but they were only just beginning to really ramp their pricing leverage.

Ben Gilbert

There's a Roy E. Disney quote on this: "Nobody would've told you when that deal," the ABC deal, "was being made that ESPN was going to turn out to be the weightlifter of the group." Nobody involved in it in any way ever would've thought that.

David Rosenthal

Yep, yep. At that point, ESPN's average monthly affiliate fee with their cable partners was still less than a buck. So there was so much more room to scale ahead of it. But absolutely quickly after Disney acquires Capital Cities in 1996, ESPN becomes this crown jewel within the company, almost overnight and almost completely by accident. The business model, once they got it going, was so simple: just call up the cable operators every year or two and say, "Hey, we're going to raise carriage rates 20%." "Oh, you don't like that?" "Okay, we'll pull the plug." "You sure you don't like that?" "All right, 20% it is."

Ben Gilbert

And they had locked up the sports rights for, like, a decade for any of the sports that they were bidding on. They realized, "Oh, we should go get the longest contracts we can so we have the most leverage over these cable companies."

David Rosenthal

Yep. So this is the heyday of ESPN here in the late '90s into the early 2000s. MLB, NBA—they do a big NFL deal in 1998 to get Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football rights for ABC. They get 3 Super Bowls out of that. Meanwhile, they invented the whole sports-highlight category.

Ben Gilbert

That's right.

David Rosenthal

Which is just like, "Hey, we've got these rights, and live sports are worthless the minute after they air. But what if we show them again a few hours later in a nightly highlights show with a lot of sizzle and some great anchors?" And this is SportsCenter. Man, was it awesome.

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

The cost to operate ESPN beyond the sports rights was not that much. They're operating out of Bristol, Connecticut.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah. The cherry on top to all this, too: Disney is already in the cable game before acquiring Capital Cities, ABC, and ESPN. They had launched Disney Channel in 1983.

David Rosenthal

Yep, I think that's right.

Ben Gilbert

And it was super rocky at first—expensive to get off the ground, way over budget. It was actually part of the problems they were going through in '83, along with Epcot cost overruns. But now that they have ESPN, they're able to collectively bargain—

David Rosenthal

Yes.

Ben Gilbert

—with the cable companies. So not only could they command premium rates for ESPN, they would also say, "Oh, yeah, do you want the Disney Channel and A&E and Lifetime?"

David Rosenthal

Yeah, those rates are going up, too.

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

Exactly.

Ben Gilbert

It's almost like a bundle within a bundle.

David Rosenthal

And that's not even getting into ESPN2, ESPN Classic, ESPN News, ESPN Ocho, you know.

Ben Gilbert

These days, the SEC Network—they go nuts.

David Rosenthal

So this is a grand slam for Disney, an absolute grand slam, but it's yet another huge management item competing for Michael Eisner's attention, among all the other existing management items at The Walt Disney Company.

Ben Gilbert

And Eisner's thought going in was, "It is important to have the Disney brand and our products and our content distributed on television." Walt did this. That's how they built the Disneyland mania around that TV show.

David Rosenthal

With ABC.

Ben Gilbert

Bringing it full circle. And all that did become important. It was kind of amazing to have ABC and these cable stations as an outlet to promote Disney stuff, in this kind of flywheel, synergistic, aligned way that we've been talking about. But to your point, David, what it ended up actually being was just an amazing source of continuous free cash flow that they could do other stuff with. Yeah, it's great that we can promote the Disney brand, and it can provide all this alignment, but you know what's even better than that? Just spinning off mountains of cash that we can use in movies, in parks, to sort of expand the business.

David Rosenthal

Yep. I think you can make an argument that ABC fits in with The Walt Disney Company and the Disney flywheel. ESPN is this wholly separate thing that really doesn't.

Ben Gilbert

Yes.

David Rosenthal

Mickey Mouse and SportsCenter do not meet.

Ben Gilbert

I mean, they try to put ESPN Wide World of Sports in Disney World and stuff like that.

David Rosenthal

Wide World of Sports.

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

And ESPN Zone.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah, that's right. Oh, ESPN Zone. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

David Rosenthal

But the correct move that they figured out eventually was kind of firewalling ESPN off on its own, making the best ESPN you can, and just enjoying the dollars.

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

And the timing totally lines up with everything you were talking about, David: expanding the parks, building hotels, leaning into resorts. This is how they funded it all—the cash that ESPN and the cable networks, but mostly ESPN, were spitting out.

Yep. I—there's even a quote in Bob Iger's book, which we haven't talked about Bob yet, but we will.

Ben Gilbert

He comes into Disney via the Capital Cities acquisition.

David Rosenthal

That's right. He worked at Capital Cities.

Ben Gilbert

Bob is COO of Capital Cities.

David Rosenthal

Yep. The quote is, "It gave Disney a scale to remain independent while other studios were falling on hard times. ESPN also further stabilized the business during the ups and downs of animation." And here, David, is an astonishing statistic.

Ben Gilbert

Lay it on me.

David Rosenthal

We're flashing forward, but later on, in the 2008 to 2011 timeframe, Disney's cable networks segment—which analysts believe is three-quarters ESPN—accounted for 60% of the entire company's operating income during that 2008 to 2011 period.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah.

David Rosenthal

Over $5 billion in profit just from the cable channels. I mean, they evolved into the cable-TV affiliate-fees company.

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

So, back here to the late '90s into the early 2000s, Michael's just overloaded managing all this.

And one element of the backdrop to all this is that it’s the dot-com era. Disney does all sorts of crazy dot-com stuff.

Ben Gilbert

I was wondering where you were going with that.

David Rosenthal

They acquire Starwave, Paul Allen’s company after Microsoft.

Ben Gilbert

That’s right, right here in Seattle.

David Rosenthal

Yep. Starwave was basically a web developer that they, I think, paid a couple hundred million dollars for. Then they buy Infoseek, which was the seventh-place search engine. They then create a separate Disney Internet Group tracking stock that they float—

Ben Gilbert

What? Really?

David Rosenthal

—publicly. Yeah, you can’t make all this stuff up. It’s dot-com insanity. Like, hey, okay, great, give Eisner a pass because everybody’s doing dot-com insanity during this era.

Ben Gilbert

Well, the biggest credit to give is the deal that he didn’t do.

David Rosenthal

Exactly, yeah. AOL approached him.

Ben Gilbert

That Time Warner did.

David Rosenthal

Steve Case approached him before Time Warner about an AOL–Disney combination, and to Michael’s eternal credit, maybe the best thing he did as CEO of The Walt Disney Company, among many, many great things—

Ben Gilbert

Other than buying ESPN.

David Rosenthal

—other than buying ESPN, but yeah, it was to say thanks but no thanks to AOL.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah. Looking at what AOL did with Time Warner, AOL merged its stock, which was highly marked, but the intrinsic value of the company was actually worthless, with Warner Bros., a real durable, stable company, at least at the time. That could’ve happened to Disney, too. But amidst all these very high valuations of the dot-com era, and I watched a bunch of interviews of Michael at this time, he was skeptical and very careful about not giving away Disney in a foolish transaction like that.

David Rosenthal

Yep. While we’re on bad decisions during this era, Michael does finally—

Ben Gilbert

Hire a number 2.

David Rosenthal

—hire a president.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah.

David Rosenthal

And a number 2. His close friend and Hollywood super-agent Michael Ovitz comes in as Disney president to be Eisner’s number 2 and help him operate the company in 1995.

Ben Gilbert

Michael, famed past Acquired guest.

David Rosenthal

That’s right. Founder of Creative Artists Agency. This was huge news in Hollywood.

Ben Gilbert

Earth-shattering stuff. I mean, Michael Ovitz built CAA into such a force in not only Hollywood, but the whole creative community. The only thing that rivaled the power of the studios at the time was CAA. Going from being the founder and number 1 at CAA to being the number 2 said a lot.

David Rosenthal

And you know what? It also speaks to what Eisner had built and assembled at Disney—

Ben Gilbert

Right.

David Rosenthal

—especially after Cap Cities, that it was the place to be in media.

Ben Gilbert

And it was almost immediately a horrible decision.

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

On both sides.

David Rosenthal

Ovitz was an agent. Eisner was an executive. This was a bad idea from the start.

Ben Gilbert

You know what the job of a president and COO is? It’s to sit in meetings all day, herd cats, make aligned decisions, tell people no, don’t people-please, make sure that the thing runs, and manage processes that take a really long time with tens or hundreds of thousands of employees to carry out. The job of being an agent is being liked, saying yes, wielding your power, making things happen quickly, being involved in 15 projects at once, or, in Michael Ovitz’s case, 500 projects at once. The day-to-day operations of being the number 2 at Disney could not have been more different from the skill set he had perfected at CAA.

David Rosenthal

Yep. So Ovitz lasts just over a year at Disney and leaves in December 1996 with a $140 million severance package.

Ben Gilbert

Because neither Ovitz nor Eisner thought there was any chance this was going to fall apart, and so The Walt Disney Company was willing to put in a contract and say, “If you don’t make it X amount of time, then you get $140 million extra dollars.”

David Rosenthal

Yep. Now, all of this, frankly, is just window dressing on what the real problem is. The real problem is Disney Animation.

Ben Gilbert

Hmm. That’s interesting.

David Rosenthal

Ben, you talked about what the movies were after 1994, and some of them were good, but it’s a downhill slide. By the time you get to the end of that period, Atlantis and Treasure Planet, these are bad movies.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah, and with Capital Cities/ABC/ESPN coming in, it’s a little bit confusing how to think about and organize the company. Before, you had this nice, tidy flywheel business. You make films with characters that people love on these universally relatable journeys. You make money at the box office, home video, parks, and consumer products, and then you recycle the IP every 7 years. It’s articulable in 1 sentence.

When they bought Capital Cities, it’s totally different. Owning TV stations that generate revenue from advertising and cable subscriptions, mostly using one-time-use content that is not evergreen, most of which you don’t create yourself in-house. It can be profitable, and sometimes fantastically profitable, but it’s worth acknowledging that that’s a totally different business model. Now you have these 2 completely different business model and operating model things under 1 roof. Bringing in Michael Ovitz, what was he supposed to run?

David Rosenthal

Right.

Ben Gilbert

Because they’re actually 2 very different things.

David Rosenthal

Yep. So all this, and animation’s now without Katzenberg. Roy E. Disney is still there, but a lot of the talent is bleeding out to DreamWorks. Even the talent that stays is getting competitive offers from DreamWorks, so Disney has to pay them more. All their costs in animation are going up. It’s really a downward spiral, and for the first couple of years, it didn’t really matter that much because the parks were still doing great. They still had all the great IP from the Disney Renaissance that was driving everything they could put into the parks.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah, because they don’t make most of their money from actual profits at the box office when the movie comes out the first time. There’s a delayed impact to animation sucking that doesn’t show up in the financials until way later.

David Rosenthal

Yes.

Ben Gilbert

David Rosenthal

Yes. Or until something happens to the parks, which is exactly what happens in September 2001 with September 11th. Obviously, it’s a national tragedy, but Disney’s parks business basically instantly falls off a cliff. It’s like COVID for Disney parks for the few weeks and months after September 11th. All of a sudden, this crown-jewel asset within the empire just goes close to zero.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah.

David Rosenthal

Real bad.

Ben Gilbert

Yep. For a few weeks, zero planes are in the air, and for years after that, people don’t feel safe traveling.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

Not to mention, it triggers this consumer-spending impact.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

Not good if you’re running a high-fixed-cost theme-park business.

David Rosenthal

Yep. So Disney stock falls nearly 25% in the days after the September 11th attacks. Fairly quickly thereafter, they’re forced to close the vast majority of the Disney retail stores that they had opened in malls across America. The operating profit from the whole consumer products division had already been slowly ticking down as no new good IP was coming out of Disney Animation to sell dolls and costumes. Now it’s down to a trickle.

The worst part of all of this, for Michael Eisner at least, is that the Bass family, which to this point are still Disney’s largest shareholders and Michael’s strongest supporters among the shareholder base, face a margin call on their other investments in the days after September 11th. They’re forced sellers of $2 billion worth of Disney shares, which puts even further downward pressure on the Disney stock, which has already just fallen by 25%. They sell the majority of their Disney holdings in a block transaction, and overnight, Eisner’s support in the shareholder base, or at least the biggest bulk of it, is gone. Disney is now trading at depressed levels. It’s almost like 1984 all over again.

Ben Gilbert

I know, right? It—

David Rosenthal

Could there be corporate raiders showing up to break up the company?

Ben Gilbert

It’s eerily similar. Animation in the dumps. Before, it was parks holding the company up, but now it’s ESPN holding the company up.

David Rosenthal

Exactly. And even ESPN, for a short period of time, is shaky. Sporting events stop after 9/11. It’s a weird time for the country.

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

And then, just when it seemed that things couldn’t get any worse at Disney in the years after 9/11, on November 30th, 2003, Roy E. Disney announces that he is resigning from the Disney board of directors, citing, quote, “Serious differences of opinion about the direction and style of management.”

Ben Gilbert

Man, this really is a mirror of 20 years earlier.

David Rosenthal

Is it ever, except this time it all plays out in public because Roy and Stanley Gold, his business partner, who also resigns from the board, promptly turn around and launch a first-of-its-kind public grassroots shareholder campaign with the website SaveDisney.com, with the stated goal of mounting a proxy vote to oust Michael Eisner as the CEO of The Walt Disney Company.

Man, Ben, this playbook of starting a website, of “Save Company X dot com,” with an insider resigning from the company, starting a website, and launching a public grassroots campaign—

Ben Gilbert

Yeah.

David Rosenthal

—would famously be repeated once more in American corporate history. Do you know what company?

Ben Gilbert

Hmm. No.

David Rosenthal

SavePapaJohns.com.

Ben Gilbert

No way.

David Rosenthal

Yeah. Save Disney and Save Papa John's.

Ben Gilbert

Wow.

David Rosenthal

Oh, man. Well, before we tell the story of Save Disney and Disney's ultimate leadership transition to Bob Iger that would come out of it, now is a great time to thank one of our favorite companies, Sentry.

Ben Gilbert

That's right. That's S-E-N-T-R-Y, like someone standing guard.

David Rosenthal

Which is what they do for developers. Sentry helps teams debug everything from errors to latency issues, basically any software problem, and fix them before users get mad. It is considered, quote-unquote, “Not bad” by millions of developers out there.

Ben Gilbert

And David, this might be one of the most on-theme sponsor moments that we have ever had on Acquired. We are about to spend a good chunk of time on the Disney+ launch later the episode.

David Rosenthal

Yes, and think about what that launch actually was. One service going live on basically every device on Earth all at once, phones, video game consoles, smart TVs, streaming sticks, tablets, all ready for tens of millions of subscribers on day one. At that scale, things break in places you've never seen. Disney+ launched with Sentry as the centralized error logging service behind it, so when something broke, the team knew exactly why it broke, on which device, and in which release, all before the angry emails started.

Ben Gilbert

And here's the wild part. That was 2019. What Sentry does now goes a step further. Software is starting to fix itself in production, and the clever thing is how they pull it off. So Sentry is already watching your app in production, so the second it breaks, it has the whole picture, error logs, the trace, the release that it started in. It hands that context straight to the tools developers already use, whether that's Claude Code or Cursor or Sentry's new agent, Sear, and it automatically finds the root cause and opens the PR for the human to review. That is what makes software self-healing, and it's why 200,000 organizations run on Sentry.

David Rosenthal

Yes. Thanks to Sentry for making sure everyone's favorite stuff, including Disney+, which let me tell you, is our favorite stuff in this household, actually works. They've got an incredible customer list, including not only friends of the show, Anthropic and Vercel, but also Cursor, Linear, GitHub, and many more. If you wanna learn more, go check out sentry.io/acquired.

Ben Gilbert

And one last thing, Sentry is the host this year of the official Acquired community meetup with David and me in San Francisco, Thursday, September 17th at Fort Mason. David and I are gonna have a live conversation going behind the scenes of Acquired. We'll have food and drink and a room full of the Acquired community. Tickets are $20, and 100% of the proceeds will go to the Susan Wojcicki Foundation for early detection of lung cancer.

David Rosenthal

So great.

Ben Gilbert

It really is. Space is limited to 500 people only, so grab your spots now at acquired.fm/meetup, and we look forward to seeing you there.

David Rosenthal

Indeed.

Ben Gilbert

All right, David, so the Save Disney campaign. First, let me just open with an excerpt from Ride of a Lifetime, Bob Iger's book. This is about the resignation letter that Roy had written.

David Rosenthal

He sent copies to Eisner, the board, and then The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, and the L.A. Times.

Ben Gilbert

He went on a blistering, 3-page critique of Michael's stewardship of the company. The first 10 years had been a success, he acknowledged, but the latter years had been defined by 7 distinct failures, which Roy laid out point by point.

1. A failure to bring ABC primetime back from its ratings abyss. 2. The consistent micromanagement of everyone around you, with the resulting loss of morale throughout the company. 3. A lack of adequate investment in theme parks, building on the cheap that has depressed park attendance. That is counter to every other thing that I've heard.

David Rosenthal

I mean, park attendance was down because of September 11.

Ben Gilbert

Right. Michael sort of famously had an eye for making the theme parks great, second only to Walt.

David Rosenthal

Nobody invested in the parks like Michael Eisner.

Ben Gilbert

Right. Right. 4. The perception by all of our stakeholders that the company is rapacious, soulless, and always looking for the quick buck rather than long-term value, which is leading to a loss of public trust. Disney was, by this point, distributing Pixar's early films, but Eisner and Pixar had a very contentious relationship. We'll put a pin in that for now.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

5. A creative brain drain from the company due to mismanagement and low morale. 6. A failure to build good relationships with Disney's partners, particularly Pixar. And 7. Your consistent refusal to establish a clear succession plan. This is a brutal letter.

David Rosenthal

Yeah. And then Roy ends the letter with, “Michael, it is my sincere belief that it is you who should be leaving and not me. Accordingly, I once again call for your resignation and retirement.”

Ooh, man. So what is Roy so upset about? Amazingly, Disney Animation had continued to go downhill.

Ben Gilbert

Right. 2003 had Brother Bear.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

2004 had Home on the Range. 2005 was Chicken Little.

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

You've never heard of any of these films, I'm sure. Maybe you've heard of 2007. They had Meet the Robinsons, which I guess would've been in development.

David Rosenthal

Yeah. Yeah, yeah. Bolt was the end of this misery in 2008.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah. I mean, if you are a little bit younger than David and me—call it 25, maybe 30—you probably don't actually have any Disney movies from your childhood that you remember the way that we remember Aladdin and The Lion King—

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

—and The Little Mermaid and Beauty and the Beast.

David Rosenthal

Totally. But, yeah, back to Roy and this Save Disney campaign. Roy, as we already talked about earlier, is a complicated guy. He's so upset about Disney Animation. Technically, he's the one in charge of Disney Animation, so who's he upset at here—himself?

But I think what this is really about, and Roy's superpower for Disney, was that even if he wasn't the best executive or leader, or in touch with the marketplace, as evidenced by the total flop of Fantasia 2000, he absolutely was the steward and protector of the Disney spirit. It was so clear that the Disney spirit—the creative spirit, the spirit that made these timeless stories that got handed down from generation to generation—had left the building.

Ben Gilbert

And the company's just spread too thin.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

It's got 2 completely different business models doing 2 completely different things from this merger with ABC.

David Rosenthal

Yep. So what happens next? Roy and Stanley had resigned in a huff from the board at the end of 2003, right at the holidays. Disney's annual shareholder meeting is coming up in March 2004, where the vote is going to happen to, hopefully in their minds, oust Michael Eisner as CEO of Disney.

Disney, in response, schedules an analyst day—an investor day—for the company in Orlando in February 2004, ahead of the meeting, to shore up support for Michael and shore up support for the stock. And they have good news to share: Pirates of the Caribbean is going to save the company.

Ben Gilbert

The movie did great. Based on a Disneyland ride, I mean, you can't write a better story.

David Rosenthal

Can't write a better story. Revenue for the quarter is up 19%. Johnny Depp riding in, going to save Michael Eisner's job.

They all wake up the morning of the investor day. Eisner's there. Bob Iger is there. By this point in time, he's been promoted to be president and COO of The Walt Disney Company. And they read the news that Comcast, the Philadelphia-based cable company, is making a hostile takeover bid to acquire Disney for $54 billion in Comcast stock.

I remember when this news hit. It was shocking. The idea that a cable company—a cable company—could take over The Walt Disney Company was—

Ben Gilbert

Just offensive.

David Rosenthal

—offensive. There were practically no more hated genres of corporations in America than cable operators, largely in part thanks to The Walt Disney Company and ESPN riling everybody up against them. And that they would be taking over, with stock, this treasure of America—honestly, for Roy and for Stanley and their Save Disney campaign, it was the best thing that could've happened, because to many people, they look at this and they're like, “How low has The Walt Disney Company fallen?”

Ben Gilbert

Yeah.

David Rosenthal

But Disney is doing great. The parks business was down because of September 11, but it's coming back. Pirates of the Caribbean is a big success. They've got this great partnership with Pixar. They've got freaking ESPN, which is still crushing it.

Why does Comcast want to buy Disney? They sense this opening, this weakness, and wouldn't it be amazing if Comcast could all of a sudden acquire its most important supplier in ESPN—

Ben Gilbert

Right.

David Rosenthal

—that has all of this leverage over them.

Ben Gilbert

They're constantly going to war with ESPN every year to renegotiate the carriage rates. Be nice to own it.

David Rosenthal

We might be able to get ESPN?

Ben Gilbert

Right.

David Rosenthal

Holy crap, let's try it.

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

Oh, man.

Ben Gilbert

Just to underscore this ESPN thing, friend of the show Ben Thompson has a great reflection on all this:

“Walt Disney's chart, the famous flywheel one, may have been a very satisfying business model, but the reality of Disney's TV business is that it was scalable in a way that the Disney chart could never be. The beauty of the cable bundle is that nearly every household in America paid for it every single month, regardless of whether or not Disney had a hit TV show or a must-watch sporting event.”

David Rosenthal

Thanks to its suite of channels anchored by ESPN, Disney received a big chunk of that money, and it grew like clockwork. In that world, Walt Disney's model was a nice side business to the real moneymaker.

Ben Gilbert

Yep. Yep. Man, it's all about ESPN—everything that's happening.

David Rosenthal

Yep. The cable network's operating income—the profit within The Walt Disney Company at this point—was $2 billion. Company-wide, they were only making $4.5 billion, so almost 50% of the company's total profits came just from these cable networks.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah, which is really—

David Rosenthal

ESPN.

Ben Gilbert

ESPN. So, on the back of this narrative of how low the Disney Company had sunk under the leadership of Michael Eisner—which gets ridiculous, but it's the narrative out there—the 2 major shareholder advisory services backed the Save Disney campaign and Roy Disney, and they advised shareholders to vote to withhold their support of Michael Eisner as CEO at the March shareholder meeting. CalPERS, the big California pension fund, announced that it was going to vote its Disney shares against Eisner and vote for him to resign.

So all of this came to a head on March 3, 2004, at the Disney annual shareholder meeting, which hilariously had been scheduled that year to take place in Philadelphia—the headquarters of Comcast.

David Rosenthal

They're just a few blocks away.

Ben Gilbert

At the end of the day, 43% of the shareholder base voted to withhold support for Eisner as CEO, which is a huge number.

David Rosenthal

You don't renew a CEO's contract when 43% of your shareholders don't want that CEO.

Ben Gilbert

No. Yep. So the Disney board met in an emergency executive session without management present, during which they decided to remove Michael as chairman but let him remain CEO of Disney for the moment. They announced this, and the Disney stock jumped in response. Meanwhile, Comcast stock had been falling, so a few weeks later, Comcast formally withdrew its bid.

But this didn't placate Roy and Stanley and the Save Disney campaign. Eisner was still CEO. A few months after that, Michael announced that he would leave the company when his contract expired at the end of 2006. So he had announced that he was going to resign, but now there was the question: Who's going to take over?

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

The board announced that it was going to initiate a public, high-stakes CEO search, and it intended to name Michael's successor by June of 2005. Everyone believed it had to be an external candidate who was going to come in and take over Disney, just like Wells and Eisner came in 20 years ago.

David Rosenthal

Well, do you know what the press release says—who it names?

Ben Gilbert

Well, it says that there will be external candidates and that there will be 1 internal candidate.

David Rosenthal

Initially, it actually said internal and external candidates, and Bob Iger was reviewing the press release because he was COO. He went to the board and said, "Wait, Michael's going to be CEO for another year?" Bob said, "You can't really do this. Are there other internal candidates, or is it just me?" And they said, "It's just you." He said, "Well, then you need to put me in the press release—"

Ben Gilbert

Right.

David Rosenthal

"—because there's going to be a power vacuum."

Ben Gilbert

Otherwise, there's going to be chaos around here.

David Rosenthal

Right. People will need someone to look to for leadership because no one's going to be looking to Michael. He's a lame duck, and there are going to be all these people vying for power. The company will not function. You have to say, "External candidates and Bob Iger." And they agreed and said, "Okay, then we'll do it."

Ben Gilbert

So Bob was announced as the internal candidate, and the board promised it would run an exhaustive search for external candidates. Bob, as he recounts all of this in The Ride of a Lifetime, came up with what I think is one of the most brilliant campaign framings I have ever heard, and he actually hired a political campaign consultant to help him with this.

He realized, "Okay, I am the number 2 to an unpopular incumbent. I'm like the vice president of a massively unpopular president right now, who has just become a lame duck."

David Rosenthal

Right. Every board member's first, second, and third question for me should be, "Why should we pick you when you were a part of the previous administration that we think sucked?"

Ben Gilbert

And how did you screw up so badly?

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

So he realized that his only chance was to completely reframe the situation. This isn't about what happened in the past. This is only about the future, which is both the right way to look at this and Bob's only chance to win.

David Rosenthal

Yes.

Ben Gilbert

So he proposed to the board, in his candidacy, 3 pillars of his vision and strategy for the future of The Walt Disney Company.

Number 1: We need to devote most of our time and capital to the creation of high-quality branded content. In other words, we need to revive Disney Animation and, along with it, the Disney flywheel. Spot on, especially now, because the amount of content in the world is exploding. We're entering the social media era. There's Facebook. We're about to get YouTube. Consumers have infinite choice for content. The only way for a company like Disney to hope to still be relevant is to go back to making the very best content.

David Rosenthal

And build a brand to be known for that, so people know to look to you for that highest-quality tier.

Ben Gilbert

And still, nobody is better positioned than Disney to do that. Despite all the problems and distractions and the downfall of animation over the last 10 years, it's still Disney.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

So that's 1. Number 2: We need to embrace technology to the fullest extent. Now, this sounds like, duh, why wouldn't you do that? But this is actually kind of a radical statement at this point in time.

We're about to enter an era where the entire traditional media industry is going to be either running scared or actively trying to fight tech in Silicon Valley. Viacom is about to launch a lawsuit against YouTube to try and sue it out of existence. Everybody remembers what just happened to the music industry and Napster. Bob is saying, "No, we're going to embrace technology."

David Rosenthal

Both to produce fresh, new, cutting-edge content the way that Walt did, but also embrace technology as a distribution medium—

Ben Gilbert

Yes.

David Rosenthal

—and figure out how to use that to our advantage, not let technology be the reason for our downfall.

Ben Gilbert

Yep. And then Bob's third pillar of his strategy is to expand global reach. We need to better penetrate certain markets, particularly the world's most populous countries, like China and India. Unlike Walt's era, at this point, something like 1/3 of the global population lives in those 2 countries, and Disney is all about economies of scale.

Make the deepest, best, highest-quality content, characters, and stories possible, and get as many people around the world to fall in love with them as possible.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

And we need to get into those 2 countries.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

So amazingly, Bob won on this campaign. In March of 2005, the board announced that Bob Iger would be the future CEO of The Walt Disney Company. They accelerated his start date and Michael's departure date to September 2005, a year ahead of when Michael had initially announced, and the Michael Eisner era at Disney came to an end after 21 years.

David Rosenthal

It's so interesting. Michael Eisner's tenure at Disney, in my mind, is really 2 chapters. There's that whole first chapter that sort of ends with Frank Wells's passing—

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

—Katzenberg leaving, the end of the great Disney Animation era—

Ben Gilbert

And acquiring Capital Cities.

David Rosenthal

But the acquisition of Capital Cities is sort of that whole second era.

Ben Gilbert

Yes. Yeah, that's the way I would frame it, too. He, Wells, and Katzenberg did an incredible job turning around Disney in the first 10 years. That sort of went sideways in the second 10 years. But Michael made 1 of the greatest acquisitions of all time in the second 10 years, and because of all the drama, he doesn't get anywhere near enough credit for it.

David Rosenthal

Yeah. It's so interesting when you say 1 of the greatest acquisitions of all time. When I look at Capital Cities/ABC, it was because it had ESPN, but it also cost the company its strategic clarity.

Ben Gilbert

Yes.

David Rosenthal

Disney never again would get to be just Disney. It's the flywheel business and the—

Ben Gilbert

ESPN business.

David Rosenthal

—the affiliate and advertising cable business.

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

And it's worth it, because buying ESPN was this pseudo-infinite wellspring of capital to fund everything else, but it cost the company its clarity.

Ben Gilbert

Yep, that's exactly right.

David Rosenthal

By the numbers, Michael's tenure was unbelievable. He came in with a market cap a little shy of $2 billion—

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

—and left with it worth, I don't know, $50-ish billion. I think there was some dilution, so it wasn't quite a 25x, closer to a 20x return on the stock. He came in when revenue was $1.7 billion and left with it at $31 billion.

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

That's a 15% compound annual growth rate over his 2 decades, and net income went from $97 million to $2.5 billion.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah, 26x net income during his tenure.

David Rosenthal

By the numbers—

Ben Gilbert

By the numbers.

David Rosenthal

—great. And, you know, ESPN is arguments 1, 2, and 3 for why he was a great CEO. And also Disney's renaissance, but I put that at 4—below ESPN, ESPN, and ESPN.

Ben Gilbert

And then the Disney renaissance, yeah.

David Rosenthal

Yes.

Ben Gilbert

I don't know. You gotta count The Lion King musical for something.

David Rosenthal

That's true. That's very true.

Ben Gilbert

So Bob Iger is named CEO.

David Rosenthal

One of his first calls after he gets the news, on, I think, a Sunday afternoon, is to Steve Jobs, then CEO of Pixar in addition to being the CEO of Apple. He writes in The Ride of a Lifetime: “I barely knew Steve at that point. He was typical Steve. ‘How long have you worked for Michael?’ he asked. ‘10 years.’ ‘Huh,’ he said. ‘Well, I don’t see how things will be any different, but sure. When the dust settles, be in touch.’” It turned out that phone call was probably the most important phone call in the history of The Walt Disney Company.

Ben Gilbert

But before we tell the story of Pixar, now is a great time to thank one of our favorite companies, Work OS.

Ben Gilbert

Yes. So I wanna start with a line that we quote on this show all the time: Focus on what makes your beer taste better.

David Rosenthal

Yes. One of the great business metaphors from back when breweries ran their own power plants. All that electricity did nothing for the taste of the beer, and every era of software has its own version of the power plant. Right now, the cost of building software is collapsing to near zero, and you can build a real working product with AI writing 100% of the code. The stuff that differentiates you is what you build, your ideas, and how to serve customers.

Ben Gilbert

And this is where Work OS comes in. Something that you absolutely should not build yourself is enterprise authentication. Nobody needs to roll their own. If you're selling software to B2B or enterprise buyers, they deeply care about their data and they care about security. They need things like SSO or SCIM, S-C-I-M, audit logs, role-based accounts, the entire checklist. None of that is the sort of thing that you listeners can uniquely do well to make your product better, but all of it sits in between you and closing a deal with a customer.

David Rosenthal

This is the whole reason Work OS exists. They turn those enterprise requirements into drop-in APIs. Your team adds enterprise SSO in an afternoon instead of a couple months, and gets back to the stuff that really differentiates your product.

Ben Gilbert

Yes. And that is why OpenAI, Cursor, Perplexity, friend of the show Anthropic, and hundreds of other AI startups build on Work OS instead of building the power plant themselves. They just plug into the grid so the product that you built over a weekend can be ready for the enterprise on Monday. You can learn more at workos.com and just tell them that Ben and David sent you.

David Rosenthal

So during his CEO audition process, Bob Iger had completely lost faith that Disney Animation could be fixed from within. Secretly, he concludes that the only viable path to restore Disney Animation to its proper glory is to replace the entire leadership team with Pixar leadership. There’s this famous moment that Bob writes about when he’s at the opening parade of Hong Kong Disneyland in 2005. He’s watching all the floats go by, and he sees Cinderella, Mickey, and Snow White. He realizes that there are no Disney characters from the last 10 years or so in this parade. On the contrary, it’s stuffed to the gills with Pixar characters.

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

And that’s the moment where he’s like, “You know what? The path is clear. Pixar needs to take over Disney Animation.” That’s why he called Steve Jobs the evening that he knew he was going to become CEO.

Ben Gilbert

Yes. So listeners, we thought something that would be fun on this episode is to tell the whole Pixar story. We could have done it in line earlier with Disney Animation, but we wanted to carve it out, give it its own special section, and, in a really poetic thing for David and me, redo our very first episode on Acquired, which was on Pixar, here as a segment of this episode.

David Rosenthal

Yep. Pixar is the spiritual successor of Walt Disney’s vision for Disney Animation.

Ben Gilbert

Yep. All right. So we’re winding the clock back. Let’s start with John Lasseter.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

This is a guy who dreamed of becoming a Disney animator his whole life. One of his early jobs was working the Jungle Cruise at Disneyland. And David, as you mentioned, he ends up getting into CalArts. It’s a complete dream come true. Classes are taught by Disney’s legendary animators who worked with Walt, the Nine Old Men, as they are affectionately referred to.

David Rosenthal

That’s right.

Ben Gilbert

He does get a job at Disney Animation, but unfortunately, it’s during those dark times in the early 1980s. John gets obsessed with the budding field of computer animation, even though no one else in the department is obsessed with it. Actually, Tron was happening elsewhere in Disney.

David Rosenthal

That’s right.

Ben Gilbert

Full computer stuff was happening, just not in the culture of Disney Animation. This all comes to a head when John gets the chance for his directorial debut on the movie Brave Little Toaster, and in his big pitch meeting, he comes in with the idea that he’s going to use computer animation to do it. Remember, this is the early 1980s, so computer animation was pretty primitive stuff.

David Rosenthal

The time wasn’t actually right yet.

Ben Gilbert

He gets asked if it’s going to be faster and cheaper than traditional animation, because why else are they doing it? And he says, “Neither. It’s just going to push the envelope on what is possible in great storytelling.” John is immediately—and I’m not kidding—let go the same day.

David Rosenthal

Wow, I didn’t realize it was the same day.

Ben Gilbert

It was: “Thank you for your meeting. We are declining to put this project into production, and since your project is over, you really have no reason to be here.”

David Rosenthal

“Thanks for your meeting. You’re fired.”

Ben Gilbert

Yes. So we’ll put a pin in John’s story for now while we introduce another co-founder of Pixar.

Flashback to 1963. We’re at the University of Utah, where we meet Ed Catmull. Ed also wanted to do animation his whole life, but he felt that he didn’t have the chops to cut it as an artist, so he got into computers instead. He finds himself in this truly magical program for computer graphics at Utah, though it was just this pocket of an esoteric field that most people did not really care about or appreciate at the time. Ed ends up creating one of the first films ever with computer graphics: a rotating model of his own hand, just a black-and-white wireframe.

David Rosenthal

His classmates are famed computer scientist Alan Kay, Jim Clark of Netscape and Silicon Graphics—

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

—and John Warnock, who founded Adobe.

Ben Gilbert

And also, wasn’t Nolan Bushnell knocking around there?

David Rosenthal

He was. Yep. Past Acquired guest Nolan Bushnell, the famous founder—

Ben Gilbert

Founder of Atari.

David Rosenthal

—of not only Atari, but Chuck E. Cheese.

Ben Gilbert

That’s right. That’s right.

So Ed ends up getting recruited to build out this pioneering computer graphics program at the New York Institute of Technology on Long Island. So he’s in this academic sphere.

Meanwhile, in Northern California, the year is now 1979, and there’s a guy named George Lucas who is looking for someone—

David Rosenthal

Heard of him.

Ben Gilbert

—who can help him push the field of computer graphics forward. George had just released Star Wars, and he was working on The Empire Strikes Back. He had this amazing firsthand experience of how computers could unlock brand-new filmmaking methods. And not just for Star Wars, but George was looking to develop tools to make the whole industry better.

This is pretty heady stuff at the time. No one in Hollywood was looking to invest in building out new computer technology just because. And the reason why George wanted to make stuff to push all of filmmaking forward is actually pretty interesting from a business analysis perspective.

A filmmaker can only make one film at a time, and that takes 1 to 3 years. But you want an audience that’s used to always going to the movies every week or every month and having a great experience. So if you’re a filmmaker, you’re rooting for all the other filmmakers to make amazing films, to condition your customer set that your product is good and they should have a habit of going to the movies.

So unlike other industries, being a filmmaker has this delightful, cooperative—

David Rosenthal

Yeah, you’re sort of collaborators and competitors.

Ben Gilbert

Right. So George gets put in touch with Ed. Ed accepts a job, moves across the country to join Lucasfilm, and brings Alvy Ray Smith with him from New York Tech. They create the computer graphics group at Lucasfilm.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

And really, the goal here is to figure out how to do stuff that you couldn’t do with traditional live-action techniques. Pretty broad. The first big success is actually not with a Star Wars film, but a Star Trek film, in Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan. It was a flyby of a planet as it was being terraformed, and it was shot from all these crazy swooping angles.

David Rosenthal

Mm.

Ben Gilbert

So this is now where the 2 paths collide. You’ve got John Lasseter and Ed Catmull, and they see each other at an industry conference, of all places, on the Queen Mary. John has just been fired from Disney. Ed doesn’t actually know that. Ed is hitting the limitations within his graphics group, where none of them really know how to tell stories, create characters, or imbue any emotion into the things that they’re making.

Ed begs John to see if there’s any chance he could take some time and come up north to hang out at Lucasfilm Graphics and improve the storytelling in the short films that they’re starting to think about.

David Rosenthal

John’s like, “Oh, let me check my calendar.” “Yeah, I’m free.”

Ben Gilbert

Yes. And this is really the first chance that they had to get a real animator. So the duo is now together, but computer hardware at the time was not capable of doing what they needed. The group needs to develop hardware.

They make the Pixar Image Computer within Lucasfilm. This is the first time they’ve actually used the Pixar name for anything. They’re making these short films, but there’s no real market for them. They’re fun to make, but it’s not like anyone’s buying them.

The Pixar Image Computer could do MRIs—basically anything where you needed to turn images into 3D renders. They did the first volumetric renders of an MRI. They would also analyze satellite photos for intelligence agencies and build 3D models from them. So they’re finding these niche, interesting markets to try to make some money.

David Rosenthal

For their software and hardware?

Ben Gilbert

Yeah.

David Rosenthal

So it’s interesting. All of this is part of Lucasfilm. Is George Lucas interested in MRIs or even making animated films?

Ben Gilbert

Not particularly. I mean, he wants them to develop capabilities for future films, but he doesn’t want to staff up a big story team and have this be a filmmaking division. And no, I don’t think he’s particularly interested in the CGI.

He actually has a different piece of news to share with the team. He’s going through a divorce, he’s short on cash, and he needs to free up cash for the divorce. So what he wants to do is sell the graphics group.

David Rosenthal

Which, by the way, is fascinating. This all happened because George Lucas believed so deeply in Star Wars and the movies he was making that he didn’t want to give up any equity in Lucasfilm as part of his divorce. He needed to raise cash to pay his former wife instead of giving her any equity in Lucasfilm.

Ben Gilbert

Wild.

David Rosenthal

This is like the butterfly flaps its wings, resulting in Pixar saving Disney.

Ben Gilbert
David Rosenthal

He finds a buyer.

Ben Gilbert

Yes. Enter Steve Jobs.

David Rosenthal

Steve Jobs.

Ben Gilbert

Amazingly, they’re first introduced by Alan Kay, a legendary computer scientist, former classmate of Ed Catmull’s, and a trusted friend of Steve Jobs. Steve visits Lucasfilm to see the technology firsthand, and he’s impressed, but then he goes dark.

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

He just vanishes for a while. The Lucasfilm guys are wondering, “What’s going on?” It turns out this is right in the middle of when Steve is getting fired from Apple and ousted from his own company.

Steve gets back in touch after the dust settles, and at first, what he actually wants is the Pixar team and technology to create a rival consumer computer company to Apple. He wants to get back at Apple, using Pixar as the seed of the company.

David Rosenthal

He wants Pixar to be next.

Ben Gilbert

Exactly. Ed Catmull, John Lasseter, Alvy Ray Smith, and the team have no interest in doing that. Steve Jobs eventually does go and start NeXT on his own, but he keeps in touch, and he likes these guys. He comes around to the vision of creating films.

He does agree to buy the company and rescue it from Lucasfilm. He goes into business with Ed Catmull, John Lasseter, and the team. In 1986, he writes a $5 million check to George Lucas to buy the company and another $5 million check into a new entity that he just created to fund the company.

It’s formally named Pixar, and it’s owned 70% by Steve Jobs and 30% by employees.

David Rosenthal

And that’s Pixar.

Ben Gilbert

And that’s Pixar. Can we just say how insane this story is? There’s a guy who worked at hallowed Disney Animation. He gets his first directing gig, but he’s fired for advocating the use of the technology of the future.

Then he finds a kindred spirit who happens to be working for George Lucas. George freaking Lucas, right—

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

—in between Star Wars and The Empire Strikes Back.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

They’re inventing all this insane stuff, but George needs to sell it off and somehow manages to find Steve goddamn Jobs. It’s like the Avengers of technology, film, and business.

I mean, the only way this story could get any more awesome is if they somehow beat Disney at its own game, got bought by Disney, breathed new life into the core of the company, and Steve Jobs became the largest shareholder of Disney itself.

David Rosenthal

It sounds like a Pixar movie.

Ben Gilbert

Doesn’t it?

David Rosenthal

It does.

Ben Gilbert

This is why Acquired exists.

David Rosenthal

It’s so great. So they spin off the company. They don’t have any customers for the product, so they go out and recruit someone to come and buy their software as a commercial product.

Ben Gilbert

Yes, and that customer is Disney.

David Rosenthal

Yes.

Ben Gilbert

The first check to Pixar, Inc. is from Disney, to work with them and create the CAPS system for improving their 2D animation.

David Rosenthal

Yep. This is the beginning of the Disney-Pixar relationship as a vendor.

Ben Gilbert

As a vendor. So Pixar decides they need to show the world who they are. They make this short little film about a lamp and a baby lamp playing with a ball, and they show it at industry conferences, because that’s what you did with computer graphics back then. People go nuts.

David Rosenthal

You were texting me. Your dad was at the conference where they showed Luxo Jr.?

Ben Gilbert

Yeah, at one of them. It wasn’t the original SIGGRAPH, but it was right there in the late ’80s. It was a joint robotics and computer animation conference.

I remember when I was a kid, I think it was when we were seeing Toy Story and there was the little short before it, my dad told me, “Yeah, I saw this at a conference, and I just knew this was going to change the world.”

David Rosenthal

Wow. Wow.

Ben Gilbert

I just rewatched Luxo Jr. this morning. You go on an emotional journey and develop feelings for lamps over 90 seconds. To me, this is where the storytelling aptitude and an ability to animate lifeless objects into something you really care about starts to come through.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

So, full steam ahead, right? Let’s go make movies. Well, there’s a problem: You need about $30 million to do that.

So first, they start making a bunch of commercials to try to pay the bills. They develop RenderMan as a piece of software. It’s actually still an industry standard today for computer animation. They release it externally, and it gets used on Jurassic Park, Terminator 2, and a bunch of cool films with early computer graphics.

But the business isn’t working. These image computers are insanely expensive, and they’ve only sold about 300 of them ever. If they’re going to realize their dream of making an animated film, they need to go all in on it, and someone needs to fund it.

Here’s what happens. John Lasseter rekindles his relationship with Disney. From what I could tell, this is completely outside of the whole CAPS relationship. John is being recruited to join Disney as a director. This is around 1991.

David Rosenthal

Oh, wow. So right as the Disney Renaissance is happening.

Ben Gilbert

That’s right.

David Rosenthal

They want him back.

Ben Gilbert

That’s right. Instead, he says, “No, I threw my lot in with these guys in Northern California. We’ve got something cool here. It’s a great team. No, I’m turning down multiple offers to be a Disney Animation director,” which had been his lifelong dream.

And he says, “But here’s what I think we should do. Let’s do a 30-minute Christmas special based on our Tin Toy short.” He’s got a little bit of leverage to ask for something here, because Disney really wants him to direct something.

Disney—really, it’s Peter Schneider, who works with Jeffrey Katzenberg—says, “Hey, forget the 30-minute TV special. Let’s do a whole feature film: Toy Story.”

David Rosenthal

Yep, and this is how Toy Story happens.

Ben Gilbert

So why is this such a crazy idea? Why is it going to cost $30 million? Why did the folks at Disney think this was such a nutty idea, to make a computer-animated film?

David Rosenthal

Yeah, it seems on the surface like this should be easier than 2D animation, right? You’re just going to get computers to do all of it. Not quite.

We got to spend a day at Pixar and learn from the folks there who make Pixar movies how they do it, and wow, it was so cool.

Ben Gilbert

Embarrassingly, I didn’t really understand that the way these things are made is like a stage play. You actually lay out all the objects on a stage in a 3D virtual environment, and you can put cameras and lights anywhere you want, all in this virtual environment. It’s like a video game.

David Rosenthal

Yeah. They’re creating the universe, basically.

Ben Gilbert

Yes.

David Rosenthal

It’s not just that you’re illustrating a still frame.

Ben Gilbert

Yes. The best explanation of this—the best seven-step process—is on the inside cover of their S-1 IPO prospectus. It has this little animated guide called the Pixar Animation Steps.

So here they are. Step 1: storyboards. Over 4,000 storyboard drawings are created as the blueprint for the action and dialogue of a feature-length Pixar film.

I think the most interesting part is that they then take the storyboards and put them together in a story reel, where they’re able to watch it like a movie even though they’re still frames. They either narrate over it or do temporary dialogue on top.

So, in a very inexpensive way, using 2D sketching, you really can get a true sense of what’s going on. This also makes it very iterable and revisable. We were chatting with folks at Pixar, and they said, “Yeah, there are usually about 8 different iterations where we revise the plot, the script, and the dialogue to really nail it and make sure that the story works.”

I was watching old interviews with John Lasseter and Steve Jobs, and Lasseter has this quote: “If it’s working in our story reels, when we animate it and put color to it, it’s going to work even better. If it’s not working in story reels, the animation won’t save it.”

Then Jobs says, “In essence, it lets us beta-test and iterate on our films before we actually make them. We believe it’s one of the reasons that the hit rate can be substantially different.”

So they basically make a low-resolution 2D movie before they make a 3D movie.

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

And the story and characters all have to work in 2D first.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

All right, so step 2: models. Pixar's proprietary animation software, Marionette, is used to create the 3D computer models for characters, props, and sets.

Step 3: layout. Each scene is begun by assembling the models for the required characters, props, and sets, and blocking out the action. This is where they really go into the computer for the first time. They take the models and lay them out to resemble the 2D paper sketches that they made for the story reels.

Hilariously, you can watch some of these. You can watch the film when it's only done in the layout stage. The characters don't have any of their limbs that move. Their mouths don't move. They're these lifeless puppets being dragged around. You get the plot, but you get no personality or emotion.

David Rosenthal

Yeah, they're like the 3D equivalent of stick figures.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah, the animators haven't really performed the characters yet.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

So then step 4: animation. Pixar's proprietary animation software allows Pixar's animators to choreograph the motion in each scene by defining key frames, or poses. This is the exciting step. Each character goes through something called rigging—

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

—by this point, where they provide the animators with a buffet of options for each character, like moving the hand at the wrist, or the arm, or the elbow, or the shoulder.

The animator then very carefully, frame by frame, first animates the bodies and then later the faces, because if the body motions are working for the story with no facial expressions, then all of the facial expression and mouth movement is just icing on the cake. You never want to rely on the facial expressions to do the heavy lifting for you.

David Rosenthal

This is such a cool part of the process. You're turning them from stick figures into something that's alive. That's really the best way to frame it.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah. To your point, they use the same thing here that the animators used in 1938 with Snow White, where they film themselves acting it out first, and then they use that video as a reference for how this character would act.

There's all this great footage on YouTube of, in 1992, the guy who was animating Woody going through the motions. For the army men, to figure out how the army men were going to move in Toy Story, they duct-taped ski boots to a giant plank of wood and jumped around the room in it to really understand how a person would move if their feet were locked together.

It's this really amazing performance, and then you're teaching the computer, through the rigging and through effectively pulling the strings, how to make the character move the way that you want it to.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

Then there's shading: computer programs that describe the surface characteristics—textures, finishes, and colors—that are added to every object in the scene. This is where you can get things like wood, metal, fabric, glass, hair, and skin.

Then step 6 is lighting, using digital lights. Each scene is lit much in the same manner as stage lighting. David, you and I saw some really cool examples of scenes that look boring and lifeless, and then they go through lighting, and suddenly they're gorgeous and emotional.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

And then lastly, step 7: rendering. Pixar's RenderMan software draws the finished image by computing every pixel of the image from the model, animation, shading, and lighting information.

This is insane. This is the part that, if you think about all the computing involved, for every single frame it needs to compute and recompute every pixel based on what object something is, where all the light sources are for each pixel, whether they're in motion, and, if so, how to apply motion blur.

Rendering is so computationally expensive here. In those days, each frame would take an hour or 2 to render, and they could only render 3 and a half minutes of footage per week. They were on Sun Microsystems hardware that was state of the art at the time, and they had 117 of them clustered together to create a render farm for the film.

David Rosenthal

Yeah, this last step just highlights what a fundamentally different thing this is from 2D animation. 2D animation is art. It's like you're painting a picture. What Pixar does is they're creating a universe, and then they are calculating every atom of that universe.

Ben Gilbert

That's exactly right.

David Rosenthal

And where it really does have the same spirit as Walt Disney is that every single one of those steps is also a story step. It's not just like, "Oh, great, we wrote the story. Let's throw it over to the tech guys and turn it into the renders." It is all a collaboration: creating a universe, and constantly refining the story and making it better and better and better over years.

Ben Gilbert

All right, so back to Toy Story. January 19, 1993: they get the green light from Disney. Specifically, what they have is a deal to make up to 3 pictures, just 1 for now, and Disney has the exclusive option to extend for 2 more, where Disney is basically hiring Pixar to make a movie for them.

Here are the terms. Disney puts up all the capital for production. It ends up being about $30 million. Initially, it was budgeted to be about $17 million. Disney is also responsible for the marketing costs. Pixar exclusively can make films with Disney. Pixar is entitled to a small amount of the profits, and that is profit after paying back some of the marketing costs.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

So that ends up being less than 10% of the profits, which is not exactly an engine that they can use to build a business.

David Rosenthal

Yeah. Oh, by the way, Disney keeps all of the intellectual property rights to Toy Story.

Ben Gilbert

Yes.

David Rosenthal

All the characters, all the merchandise, all of it.

Ben Gilbert

Disney also will have the right to make sequels if they choose. They will offer Pixar the opportunity to make the sequels with them, but if Pixar declines, they're still Disney's to make.

And lastly, the 3-picture deal does not actually include those sequels, even if Disney elects to make them. So if Disney wants a sequel, Pixar makes a sequel, but it does not count against the total—

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

—of 3. So it's kind of a crappy deal, but it is all of their dream, and it is basically the only option. And it's Disney, right? I mean, it's Disney. You do it.

David Rosenthal

Right. Well, there's no other studio that would make this with them, and Disney did stuff like this. They made The Nightmare Before Christmas with Tim Burton. It's like, "Hey, this is stop-motion animation. It's something different from what we do here at Disney. Let's get this out there. It's a boutique thing. We'll publish it. We're the best in the world at publishing animated family pictures and distributing them to theaters and marketing them. Great."

Ben Gilbert

Yep. So what are they actually making here? Pixar knows they want to make a film that is different from your typical Disney animation. They don't want to make it a musical, because at this point in 1993, the last 4 were all musicals, and they don't want it to be a fairy tale. They don't want it to harken back to the classic Walt tales either.

But that does mean that they're in uncharted waters. They have to develop their own tone and style and process. So they start translating John Lasseter's vision into the storyboards, and they keep going to Disney for notes, which is both useful, because Pixar doesn't really know what they're doing yet, and contractually required.

Katzenberg is at the helm at this point. He keeps pushing to make the film edgier. Through a combination of Pixar not really feeling confident in its storytelling and the notes pushing them this way, Woody ends up very mean. He's got this brand of insult humor. He's so threatened by Buzz that that emotion overshadows every other action he could possibly take in any scene. He's actively and intentionally pushing Buzz out windows and behind dressers and stuff like that.

So December of 1993, the story reel screening happens down in Burbank. They're like, "All right, here's all the notes that we've taken. Here's the story we've got." It goes over like a lead balloon. Katzenberg hates it. Roy E. Disney hates it. None of the characters were working.

So Disney cuts it off. Disney says, "I know we've got a deal, but we are stopping production. No more money." The Pixar team's like, "Whoa, whoa, crap. That's our whole company. Can we have 2 to 3 weeks? We just want to do a total rewrite. We'll work day and night."

And so they go back up to Northern California, and they make the version of the film that they want to make. It's not perfect, but suddenly these characters get multidimensional. They come back, and it's good enough. There's real tension in the story. Disney, to their credit, looks at it again and says, "Okay, you're back on. Continue the process."

Over the course of 1994, they're looking at their story reels. They're iterating through. They're adding more depth. The early tests of the scenes that have gone through most of the render pipeline are really good. The Pixar team knows it. Steve Jobs has become a believer, and he's starting to believe, "Hey, we've got a hit on our hands."

And David, I know you've got this part.

David Rosenthal

Yeah. So Steve, being Steve, starts thinking through this and realizes, if Toy Story is a hit, what's going to happen? Disney and Michael Eisner, who's still CEO at this point in time, are going to realize that they actually just created their worst nightmare: a true animation competitor to Disney that can do something that they can't.

So let’s play this out. That happens. He’s probably going to come back to us and want to renegotiate the deal to lock us up for longer. We want to have as much leverage as possible. In order to do that, we need to have our own capital to actually go in 50/50 on the production budget of the movies that we’re making together.

If we don’t bring any capital, Disney will be able to walk all over us and keep the majority of the profits, plus take their distribution fee, et cetera, et cetera. Okay, how are we going to get the capital? We need to go public.

Ben Gilbert

And we can’t go public now because the last 4 years have been losses, and we have not yet released a movie. We don’t want to wait too long after the movie comes out. So I think we should go public the week after—

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

—Toy Story comes out.

David Rosenthal

And this is where Steve was just brilliant, because he was like, “If it’s a success, we’ll make a big splash. We’ll be the darlings of the media. We’ll have a big hit movie. That is the time to go public.”

Ben Gilbert

If you’re anyone else at Pixar, you have to be thinking, “No, no, no, no. Can’t we just do this one and see how it works out?” But this is Steve Jobs.

David Rosenthal

Yeah. So Toy Story comes out on November 22, 1995, and grosses nearly $400 million worldwide.

Ben Gilbert

It is the Thanksgiving movie for families to see.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

It made $29 million in its opening weekend, went on to become the number-one film in the U.S., and it was the first-ever animated film that was a blockbuster that was not created by Disney.

David Rosenthal

And it was the highest-grossing film of the whole year.

Ben Gilbert

Not children’s movie—highest-grossing film, period.

David Rosenthal

Period. So 1 week later, after Toy Story premieres, on November 29, 1995, Pixar goes public.

Ben Gilbert

Right? Which means Steve had been flying around doing a roadshow, meeting with all these investment bankers as Toy Story was finishing production and getting ready to go out. It’s unbelievable.

David Rosenthal

Well, this is actually a theme that we’re going to come back to in a minute. There are no other business guys at Pixar. It’s just Steve. Steve does everything that’s not creative and making the movies.

So Pixar closes its first day of trading at a $1.5 billion market cap. This is how big a hit Toy Story was and how much it was in the public consciousness. This is how Steve Jobs becomes a billionaire.

Ben Gilbert

Yes.

David Rosenthal

The Toy Story IPO. He didn’t make anywhere near that kind of money from Apple. Toy Story and Pixar are how Steve Jobs makes his fortune.

Ben Gilbert

So that $140 million they raised makes it the largest IPO of the year, larger than Netscape?

David Rosenthal

Netscape, yes.

Ben Gilbert

The numbers on Steve: he bought the company for $5 million. He actually did dump $54 million into it over 9 years.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

He was wiring money for payroll and stuff like that. And on IPO day, he owned 78% of the company.

David Rosenthal

So what’s that, like $1.2 billion?

Ben Gilbert

Yes. Pixar alone made Steve Jobs a billionaire on IPO day.

David Rosenthal

Yep. Incredible.

Ben Gilbert

Also, this was just a bet-the-company move. I mean, if Toy Story didn’t work, then the IPO wasn’t going to work, and then the whole thing would go bust. And if the IPO didn’t work—

David Rosenthal

Then Pixar would’ve gotten crushed by Disney—

Ben Gilbert

Yeah.

David Rosenthal

—in the next negotiations.

Ben Gilbert

This was a series of successive bet-the-company moves that all needed to work in order for it to work at all. So what happens next? Steve was exactly right. Michael Eisner wants to renegotiate after realizing, “Oh my God, we only have 2 more films left with these guys, and they’re the only credible competitor.”

Jobs throws out, “Hey, let’s do it 50/50, with joint participation 50/50 in the upside, now that Pixar has the cash to do it.” Michael Eisner agrees, as long as they can expand into a brand-new 5-picture deal, rolling the remaining 2 from the old contract into the new deal.

So after Toy Story, Disney would have the right to make 5 more movies with Pixar, in addition to sequels. Now, Disney also would be doing the distribution of the film, so they’d actually end up with more like 65%, not 50%. But that’s some Hollywood accounting that—I don’t actually think Steve realized that at the time.

David Rosenthal

Well, the story I heard was that he did, and it makes sense. Distribution has real costs, and marketing, and of course Disney should get paid for that. The story I heard is that Steve found out later from George Lucas that the terms of Lucas’s distribution deal with Fox were better than the distribution terms that Pixar got with Disney, and that’s what he was pissed about.

Ben Gilbert

So the second film they make is A Bug’s Life. This was also a big success—$360 million at the box office. Pixar is sort of viewed as this hit factory. It’s only been 2 so far, but they’re developing Toy Story 2 as the next film after that.

Meanwhile, the relationship with Michael Eisner is—

David Rosenthal

Deteriorating.

Ben Gilbert

—kind of deteriorating, yeah, with Steve Jobs. Disney wants to go direct-to-video with Toy Story 2. This is actually interesting to flash back and think about. Disney had never done anything except direct-to-video for sequels. The thinking was that you make something great once, you put it in theaters, and then—

David Rosenthal

You don’t overexploit the IP.

Ben Gilbert

That’s exactly right. But also, the belief was that sequels can’t possibly be as good. You’re always making this lesser, second-tier thing. And they actually hadn’t done a ton of sequels, which is quite funny, because it’s completely flipped now.

Now the goal of creating the first film is to be able to create a franchise so they can exploit the IP more and more after that. Toy Story 2 is where they learn the lesson that, oh, actually, that is a viable business model.

It’s actually the Pixar team that goes to Disney and says, “Hey, this sucks. We don’t want to create an A team and a B team at Pixar.”

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

Because the A team is on A Bug’s Life. The B team is clearly working on the thing that’s going to be lower-budget, lower-distribution, direct-to-video. We don’t know how to do it.

Disney says, “Okay.” So in February of ’98, Disney says, “Toy Story 2, you are green-lit for theatrical release.”

David Rosenthal

But the question is, does it count towards the deal or not?

Ben Gilbert

So Steve realizes Toy Story 2 is going to be good. And again, he wants to renegotiate. He goes to Eisner and says, “Hey, can the 5-picture deal include sequels?”

Meanwhile, Michael Eisner is like, “Why would I do that? The paper says what it says. We negotiated this for a reason. You want to change the terms of the deal. I don’t want to change the terms of the deal, so we’ll just stick with the deal we have.”

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

You can see why the relationship starts to deteriorate.

David Rosenthal

Yes. Yes. They make Toy Story 2. It doesn’t count. They release it in theaters. It grosses almost $500 million.

Ben Gilbert

Pixar’s highest-grossing film yet, and Disney learns all the way to the bank that sequels can be really profitable.

David Rosenthal

Yes, they do. So meanwhile, the backdrop to all of this is Steve Jobs had come back to Apple. By this point in time, Apple had bought NeXT. Steve is now CEO of Apple, leading the turnaround and the renaissance at Apple.

The iPod comes out, iTunes comes out, and one of the big marketing campaigns for the iPod and iTunes is “Rip, Mix, Burn.”

Ben Gilbert

But you know who doesn’t like the word “rip”? It’s Michael Eisner.

David Rosenthal

So Eisner goes and testifies in front of Congress in 2002 against the technology industry, and specifically calls out Apple’s “Rip, Mix, Burn” marketing campaign, saying it encourages theft of intellectual property via digital piracy.

And Bob Iger has a quote about this in The Ride of a Lifetime: “It was clear that Pixar was gaining swagger as Disney was losing it, and these 2 strong-willed personalities were destined to battle each other for supremacy.”

Man, and if you really want to poke Steve Jobs, it’s one thing to go after him in the Pixar negotiations. It’s another thing to come after him at Apple. Now, to be totally fair to Eisner here, Disney had a big music business and a big album business.

Ben Gilbert

Oh, and regardless, at this point, everyone’s sort of banding together and realizing, what’s going to happen to music is happening to movies next.

David Rosenthal

Yep, yep, yep. So he had good reason to be worried here. But—

Ben Gilbert

Yeah.

David Rosenthal

—yeah, you probably don’t want to come after Steve Jobs and Apple, one of your most important partners at Pixar.

So then it gets even worse. Finding Nemo is the next movie in the deal, and as Nemo’s coming together, Eisner sees an early screening of one of the reels of Nemo. He decides he doesn’t like it.

Ben Gilbert

Which is how story reels work. They’re crap at first. This is Pixar’s process to iterate—

David Rosenthal

Right.

Ben Gilbert

—and make them better. Early ones are always bad.

David Rosenthal

Yep. So Pixar has become a board-level topic at this point for Disney. After seeing the Nemo reel, Eisner writes a memo to the Disney board where he says that he’s seen the Nemo reel, it’s a bad movie, it’s going to flop, and it’ll be, quote, “a reality check for those guys.” And it’ll be great for Disney’s negotiating leverage for Pixar to fail.

Never mind that Disney is getting over 50% of the economics in Nemo, so you should be incentivized to want it to succeed.

Ben Gilbert

The memo leaks, right?

David Rosenthal

The memo gets leaked from the board to the press.

Ben Gilbert

And Jobs can see that Michael thinks Nemo’s bad. He’s actively rooting against it, even though he’s the creative partner producing it with Pixar, and that it’ll give leverage over Pixar in a negotiation.

You can almost interpret it as, “I’m gonna actively work to make it fail so we can increase our leverage.”

David Rosenthal

Yeah. So Nemo comes out in 2003, and Michael could not have been more wrong. It grosses $871 million in theaters, making it the second-highest-grossing movie of 2003, behind only The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. Then they put it out on home video, on DVD.

Ben Gilbert

And so even before this, let’s say the theaters get, I don’t know, $400 million of that, so that’s $470 million to Disney and Pixar—

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

—from this film, even before DVD.

David Rosenthal

Ugh. These were the days, Ben. These were the days. The Finding Nemo DVD was, just like The Lion King VHS was the high-water mark for VHS, the Finding Nemo DVD was the peak, the absolute pinnacle—

Ben Gilbert

Of home video?

David Rosenthal

—of home video in the DVD era.

Ben Gilbert

’Cause even Netflix isn’t streaming yet at this point. This is 2004.

David Rosenthal

There’s no streaming. This is the peak. So we heard in the research that Disney and Pixar would sell 65 million copies—

Ben Gilbert

—of the Finding Nemo DVD, all told, across all timeframes.

David Rosenthal

$30 a pop. That is $2 billion in home video gross. So $3 billion, give or take, in total gross revenue for Finding Nemo, just between theatrical and DVD alone. That’s not including merch. That’s not including parks. That’s not including TV rights. Steve and Pixar did get a reality check, and the reality check is that they don’t need Disney at all.

Ben Gilbert

The LA Times had an article right around this time after Nemo. “Pixar films have accounted for as much as half of Walt Disney’s studio operating income in recent years,” and much of that is driven by Nemo. Remember, this is the same time that Disney Animation is releasing Treasure Planet and Atlantis: The Lost Empire. So Jobs is pissed. He comes back with an even stronger counterproposal.

He thinks, at this point, Pixar is an established studio that knows how to make hits, and he just looks at Disney as a financing and distribution partner.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

Which is true, but they did have a contract that still had 2 more movies in it. He proposes a deal to Eisner, and this is where the relationship becomes irreparable. Pixar should actually be getting 100% of the profits, not 50%, and they’re now prepared to fund the budget themselves, too. Disney would just get a 10% distribution fee, much like Lucasfilm’s deal with Fox, and to top it all off, Jobs asks Disney to relinquish its co-ownership of the past movies.

Jobs knows that at this point Disney needs Pixar real bad. Eisner stands his ground and declines, and, in reality, Steve was asking for too much here. It actually wouldn’t make economic sense for Disney to do it because they had such little upside in the straw man that Steve was putting together. But, man, would it hurt to lose Pixar when it is really the only thing working right now.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

Except for ESPN.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

So all this comes to January 2004, where Pixar pulls the plug on the negotiations. And they issue a press release. I found it on the Wayback Machine. You can actually see Pixar posted it to their website: “After 10 months of trying to strike a deal with Disney, we’re moving on. We’ve had a great run together, one of the most successful in Hollywood history, and it’s a shame that Disney won’t be participating in Pixar’s future successes.”

David Rosenthal

Classic Steve Jobs.

Ben Gilbert

That is definitely written by Steve personally.

David Rosenthal

Definitely written by Steve.

Ben Gilbert

The deal will be up after Pixar finishes out the contract with The Incredibles in 2004 and Cars in 2005. Pixar is actively in talks with other Hollywood studios. They think at this point they just need a distributor. Disney actually does start a new studio inside the company called Circle 7 Animation that will be tasked with developing, right away, Toy Story 3, Monsters, Inc. 2, and Finding Nemo 2.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

I think they had actually done work on Toy Story 3.

David Rosenthal

Man, you can bet that that is buried pretty deep in the vault these days.

Ben Gilbert

Yes. So all this happens in the last breaths of the Eisner administration.

David Rosenthal

Yeah, this is part of the backdrop happening during the Save Disney campaign, the Comcast offer, the shareholder proxy vote, and the CEO search.

Ben Gilbert

In fact, in that earnings call that blew the doors off—

David Rosenthal

Yeah, it wasn’t just Pirates of the Caribbean. It was Nemo.

Ben Gilbert

Exactly. Exactly. Both of those movies opened in that quarter.

David Rosenthal

Yep. So this brings us back to Bob Iger’s phone call to Steve and his conviction that Pixar needed to come in and be part of Disney and not just be owned by Disney, but take over Disney Animation.

Ben Gilbert

Which is a crazy call to get if you’re Steve Jobs, right? “Hey, my predecessor burned the bridge. I’d like to buy you. I’m basically open to any price, and also, I would like you guys to come and take over the core business that we operate, the most prestigious animation studio in the world. We’re waving the white flag. We’ve lost. Please come in here and take over and fix this.”

David Rosenthal

Yep. And I think Steve is so surprised that it opens the door, and it leads to this great relationship between the 2 of them. Once again, just like Bob made peace with Roy and instantly fixed that relationship, he pretty much instantly fixes the Steve Jobs relationship.

Ben Gilbert

So listeners, we talked to Bob Iger as part of the prep we were doing for this episode. Bob had this idea, and before he called Steve, he went to the board and said, “Hey, can I have authorization to open a conversation with Steve Jobs about buying Pixar?” And he said that it was so unthinkable and such a surprise to the whole board that they forgot to say no. Everyone was just like, “Sure, call him,” because they thought there was no chance that it could possibly result in Steve saying yes.

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

So Bob calls Steve back and floats this idea. Disney will buy Pixar, keep it fully intact as an independent studio up in the Bay Area, with its own email addresses and its own culture. Nothing will change. John and Ed will still run it, and they’ll also commute down to LA 2 days a week and take over and run Disney Animation.

And interestingly, Iger also said, “Hey, Lasseter and Catmull, you can also tell us you think Disney Animation is unrescuable, or that you think you’d kill both things by splitting your time, and you can just tell us you want to shut down Disney Animation, and instead Pixar will just become our 1 studio.”

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

And Lasseter and Catmull have this: “We couldn’t possibly do that.” Disney Animation is so important to where we all came from in the world, and they fly down, and they meet with people, and they see, oh, there’s actually great talent here. They’re just not being led well, and we think we can apply our process and institute a brain trust and change the physical construction of the building and bring in the Pixar way and make this great again. And they do.

I mean, that’s the crazy thing: it was John and Ed’s option to look at the enemy and chop off their head.

David Rosenthal

Decide what to do with it.

Ben Gilbert

And instead—

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

—they said, “No, no, no, we’re gonna come in there, and we’re gonna make this thing great.”

David Rosenthal

Yeah. So pretty quickly, they come to terms on a deal: $7.4 billion in newly issued Disney stock, which will make Steve Jobs the largest shareholder in Disney.

Ben Gilbert

7%.

David Rosenthal

Yep, I think it was a 7.7%—

Ben Gilbert

Wow.

David Rosenthal

—stake in the company, and he’ll join the board.

Ben Gilbert

Which is much larger than the entire Disney family put together by this point.

David Rosenthal

Yep. So it’s all done. Both boards approve the deal. They’re ready to announce it. Bob flies up to the Pixar campus in Emeryville the morning of the announcement, and before the official time when they’re gonna announce the deal and meet with the whole company, Steve comes up to Bob and says, “Let’s take a walk on the Pixar campus, just the 2 of us.”

They walk for a bit, and they sit down on a bench, and Steve says, “I have to tell you something, and you have to keep it confidential. My cancer is back, and I don’t know how much longer I’m gonna live.” This is January 2006, right as they’re about to announce the acquisition. And Steve says, “I thought about it, and I feel I have an obligation to tell you before we announce the deal, and I wanna give you an option to back out if you want, knowing that I’m about to become your largest shareholder, and I don’t know what’s gonna happen to my stake after I die.” Bob says, “Wow, that’s a lot.”

Ben Gilbert

And I’ve got 30 minutes.

David Rosenthal

Yeah, I’ve got 30 minutes to decide.

Ben Gilbert

And I can tell no one.

David Rosenthal

Steve is ever the negotiator. But he makes the decision that the deal is still on. But, oh, man, it’s devastating. So Steve would end up living another 5.5 years after this, but he, Bob, Apple, and then eventually the rest of the world knew soon that it was all borrowed time.

And this is why Steve sold Pixar. One of the questions that we had going into the research for this episode was, could Pixar have actually built a full-stack, flywheel-based competitor to Disney if they’d remained independent? I mean, they had defeated Disney. They won on every dimension, and why did they sell?

Ben Gilbert

And we asked all the Disney people this, and we asked all the Pixar people this, and we asked everyone we could this question because, from the business strategy lens, they have what it takes.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

They have the core IP, they have movies, they could slowly move into theme parks. After the 5 films, they would have control of their own sequel and merch rights, and they could do it. And it took us talking to all the people involved to realize, no, there was no chance.

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

Pixar never, ever, ever would have done what it takes to become Disney.

David Rosenthal

So I think there are 2 reasons. One, Pixar is what Walt wanted the Burbank Animation campus to be when he built it in 1940. It is a utopian, creative artist's paradise. There are no suits at Pixar. It's all about the stories and the art and the films.

Ben Gilbert

Yes.

David Rosenthal

And amazingly, by getting acquired, they kept it that way.

Ben Gilbert

Yes.

David Rosenthal

I mean, there were no suits in the early days, but all the suits are in Burbank. It just gets to be creative in Emeryville.

Ben Gilbert

It's this crazy course of history that allows this treasure to exist in Emeryville in a way that it couldn't at Disney. It didn't work at Disney Animation in Burbank to make it this utopian paradise because it had to be a business, too.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

The reason that could happen before they sold to Disney was Steve Jobs.

David Rosenthal

Right.

Ben Gilbert

It was only Steve that could have done it. And I do think if Steve had lived, and if he had felt he had the energy to do it alongside Apple, or maybe, who knows, even merge the 2 companies, he could have done it. He could have built a Disney competitor, but he knew he was going to die.

David Rosenthal

Right. But without Steve, you could imagine the rest of the Pixar folks looking at each other like, “Who among us has any interest in doing that?”

Ben Gilbert

Yeah, we're not going to do that.

David Rosenthal

No, we just want to keep making unbelievably good stories and delighting audiences and making the very best feature films we can.

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

Which does not make a Disney competitor.

Ben Gilbert

Yep. So Pixar had to find a home—

David Rosenthal

In particular, Disney is the home.

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

This is the thing that brings it full circle. The Walt era of animation had a spiritual successor, which was the Disney Renaissance, which had a spiritual successor that was Pixar.

Ben Gilbert

Yes, absolutely. And this leads to the revival of Disney Animation: The Princess and the Frog, Tangled, Frozen, Big Hero 6, Zootopia, Moana—all Pixar era. Meanwhile, the hits just keep on rolling at Pixar: Cars, Ratatouille. That was a big thing before the acquisition. Word had gotten out that Pixar was working on a movie about rats making food.

David Rosenthal

In a kitchen.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah. Who could do that? What a terrible idea. An amazing movie. WALL-E, Up, Toy Story 3, Brave, Inside Out—just the best. So years later, after many of these movies come out, during the months before Steve died, he and his wife Lorraine have one last dinner with Bob Iger and his wife Willow, and during it, Steve raises a glass in a toast to Bob and them together and says, “Look what we did. We saved 2 companies.”

The first time I read that years ago, I thought, “I don't really get it. I get that it saved Disney, but how did it save Pixar?” And then now, doing the full research and understanding Steve was going to die, and that Pixar really couldn't continue independently without him, that's how they saved 2 companies together. It's just such an incredible story.

David Rosenthal

Yeah, it is. And to validate the Disney Animation thing, I really wondered about this. How did Disney Animation turn into that hit factory? They're not Pixar movies, but they rhyme so closely. We were talking with Kristen Bell to prep for this episode, who of course plays Anna in Frozen, and she very much confirmed the way that Disney Animation works today is similar to that Pixar blueprint from the early '90s.

It's an iterative process, all about making sure that you're feeling if the story is landing when you're looking at the early reels and the scripts, this collaborative way to take the notes without ego, having a willingness to stop, take apart the story, and rebuild it if it's not working. Her perspective was like, this actually has a lot to do with why Disney the company works.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah, I mean, super validating to hear that now, what is it, 20 years after the acquisition?

David Rosenthal

Yeah. So if we sit here today and look back at the Pixar acquisition, it's just such an obvious giant, giant success. I mean, the first thing is it clearly saved Disney Animation, which if you believe the thesis that that's the center of everything good and durable at the company, then great, pencils down, easy answer.

They paid $7.4 billion, $6.4 billion when you back out the billion of cash, but effectively $6.4 billion is the hurdle that you're trying to overcome. There's a couple ways to slice it. Ben, you and I did the Finding Nemo exercise earlier. There's another exercise you can run, kind of going franchise by franchise.

Toy Story alone did over $4 billion at the box office, which means $1.5 billion to $2 billion to Disney. $30 billion in retail sales so far, lifetime of all Toy Story consumer goods. So with Disney's 5% licensing fee on that, that's another $2 billion. So that's $3.5 billion conservatively in very high-margin revenue to Disney before you even start thinking about the contribution to Disney parks.

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

They have 19 attractions across 4 lands with 2 hotels, or doing any attribution from Disney+ revenue, or any of the licensing deals that they did for a long time with Netflix.

Ben Gilbert

Yep. Or any of that sweet, sweet home video revenue back in the day—

David Rosenthal

Right.

Ben Gilbert

—from Toy Story 1 and Toy Story 2.

David Rosenthal

So you get at least half, probably two-thirds, of the purchase price back from the Toy Story franchise alone, even without all of that ancillary sort of flywheel revenue. But really, here I think is the most useful way to justify it. We've heard that the vast majority of the top 15 movies viewed every week on Disney+ are either Pixar or Disney Animation—not live action, not Star Wars, not the Avengers—the stuff that kids watch over and over, and those Disney Animation movies—

Ben Gilbert

Are almost all—

David Rosenthal

All the top ones—

Ben Gilbert

Yeah.

David Rosenthal

—that they're actually watching, kids these days, are the post-2005 Catmull and Lasseter era films.

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

Kids are not sitting there binging Snow White on repeat. They're watching Frozen and Encanto and Moana and Zootopia, and this is on Disney+, which is the biggest strategic bet that the company has made in the last decade. I mean, all of their chips are there for the future of the company.

Ben Gilbert

Yep. No question. The acquisition absolutely saved the company. So after Pixar, Bob and the Disney board are like, “Well, that worked well. What can we do next?”

David Rosenthal

And that sure is in line with Bob's point number 1 in his 3-point strategy of—

Ben Gilbert

Absolutely.

David Rosenthal

—making the very best content.

4. Marvel And Star Wars Expand

David Rosenthal

But before we talk about the other two of Bob's big three acquisitions, Marvel and Lucasfilm, now is a great time to thank our friends at Anthropic, the makers of Claude.

Ben Gilbert

Yes. And today we are going to share how Claude saved us on recording day a couple months ago on our Disney Part One episode. So David, do you wanna set the scene?

David Rosenthal

Yes. So we were in the middle of recording Part One, and recording days are always very time crunched. The whole thing feels like a high wire act. And right when we got to Snow White's box office numbers, we realized that a bunch of authoritative sources listed $8 million as the revenue for Snow White's box office in its original release. But we also had Disney's actual 1940 financial statements in front of us, and they showed four-and-a-half million. We immediately thought, “Well, those can't both be right,” and started reconciling the two numbers. We couldn't, and so we had to pause recording.

Ben Gilbert

So this was actually the day that Fable 5 came out. So while David and I were trying to sort through, I figured I'd let Claude kinda give it a shot. We uploaded photos we took of the original financials, along with another annual report that we had showing how the revenue breakdowns actually worked, and Claude untangled the whole thing for us. There are actually two different ways to report movie revenue, gross box office, which was that $8 million, and film rentals, which is Disney and the distributors' share after the theaters take their cut. That is the $4.5 million number. All the sources we found saying $8 million in revenue to Disney were actually wrong, and Claude figured that out.

David Rosenthal

Which is what let us develop the novel point that we hadn't seen anywhere else. Snow White's profits alone couldn't pay for the Burbank Animation campus. Walt had to go borrow more money, which created the cascading set of events that we talked about in the rest of the episode.

Ben Gilbert

So 20 minutes later, we were back to recording, and we were able to finish the episode both on time and—

David Rosenthal

Sort of.

Ben Gilbert

—to be factually correct, which is the clearest example I've ever personally had of Claude being able to solve a problem in the moment using analysis from primary sources that we couldn't find anywhere else in the middle of a live recording day within minutes. So listeners, if you wanna try out Fable now or you just wanna learn more, go to claude.ai/acquired, and if you're inquiring for your team or for API use, just tell 'em that Ben and David sent you.

David Rosenthal

Star Wars and Marvel.

Star Wars and Marvel. Well, Marvel is first. So in 2009, Disney acquires Marvel for $4 billion. This was highly contrarian at the time. People thought, “You're spending $4 billion for a comic book company?” The Marvel movies had already started to come out.

Iron Man had come out, I think a couple others that had been hits. But nobody could see what Marvel would end up becoming under Disney.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah, superhero movies were not obviously formulaically going to work. There had been Batman movies many years before. There had been Superman movies many years before. There had recently been a Spider-Man—

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

—which actually was licensed to Sony. Before pursuing this strategy, Marvel actually licensed out their best characters to other

David Rosenthal

Studios.

Ben Gilbert

And so the acquisition was weird because it was kind of buying all these leftover characters. You couldn't use X-Men because Fox already had that. You couldn't use Spider-Man because Sony already had that. They had already made a film out of Iron Man, and the big dogs, Superman and Batman, were over at DC. So what are you even buying when you're buying Marvel?

But the team at Marvel Studios and Disney really figured it out. We're not going to go into all the details here, but they crafted the Marvel Cinematic Universe in a way that became the blueprint for anybody else who wants to universe-ify their franchise. This very careful world-building of all these interconnected movies eventually culminated in the Avengers movie. The first 3 phases of the Marvel Cinematic Universe were really this franchise-building masterclass to behold. By 2025, the Marvel Cinematic Universe has become the most successful film franchise in history—

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

—generating nearly $32 billion at the box office. That's more than Star Wars, more than James Bond, more than anything else. Now, it helps to have 37 films, plus—

David Rosenthal

Yes, they're quite prolific.

Ben Gilbert

—Avengers: Endgame, which was the 2nd-highest-grossing film of all time, second only to Avatar, I think.

David Rosenthal

Yep, I think that's right.

Ben Gilbert

It's pretty difficult to estimate the profitability on this because there are too many assumptions you have to bake in, but it's fair to say there are single-digit billions in profit from the box office alone on Marvel movies. And then, of course, there's the consumer products, the park adaptations, and home video for a while, since those—

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

—Marvel movies were still in—

David Rosenthal

The early ones, yep.

Ben Gilbert

—the Blu-ray era. And then, of course, part of the reason people subscribe to Disney+.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

Marvel's also been great.

David Rosenthal

Yeah, Marvel's also been fantastic. I think really it was another version of the same thesis of Pixar, which was: There are great stories and storytellers here, and let's give them a bigger canvas to paint on.

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

And it worked incredibly well. Incredibly—

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

—incredibly well. And then Lucasfilm in 2012 for another $4 billion. I would argue, again, very different dynamics, but the same version of the story. Here is one of, if not maybe the greatest story of the last 100 years in humanity, the original Star Wars saga.

Ben Gilbert

Of myth-making.

David Rosenthal

Of myth-making.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah.

David Rosenthal

Yeah. And let's give that a greater canvas to paint on.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah. It's pretty interesting reflecting back on these, what a tear Iger was on—identifying tier-A-plus intellectual property franchises that had running room ahead of them and building the stable. Because now they own so much of it that there's not much left. I mean, there's Harry Potter, there's the Nintendo universe. There are a few things left, but Iger kind of saw this before anyone else, went in with a bigger checkbook than I think a lot of people would've been willing to go in with, and diluted Disney to do it. These were stock acquisitions, or many of them were. But now they own these things.

It's also fun to speculate on why Lucasfilm and Marvel had lower price tags than Pixar did. Dramatically lower. Lucasfilm seems easy to me in that it certainly hasn't generated as much—

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

—returns as—

David Rosenthal

They didn't have movies in production.

Ben Gilbert

Right. It was certainly right to pay less than Pixar. Turns out they should've paid well less than whatever they were willing to pay for Marvel, too.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

Because Star Wars just didn't turn out to have that much more exploitation ahead of it. And frankly, they weren't done as well, but the Avengers—

David Rosenthal

Well, we'll get to that in a minute.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah, yeah. Avengers had 37 films. And there's new Star Wars stuff I like. Andor's unbelievably good. Rogue One is unbelievably good, but yeah.

David Rosenthal

Yep. So on the back of these 3 acquisitions, the Disney flywheel is revived and soaring again. The core film characters and stories are back to all-time heights, not only at Disney Animation, but now Pixar, Lucasfilm, and Marvel too. The core of Disney is much bigger and more diverse than it used to be.

Consumer products: after Frozen comes out, Disney sells 3 million Elsa and Anna dresses in the first year after the movie's released. By 2015, Disney is doing over $50 billion a year in gross sales at retail of merchandise. That's up almost 2X—

Ben Gilbert

Wow.

David Rosenthal

—over the past 5 years. That is the health of the characters and IP in the company right there.

Music: hit songs are back for Disney. Let It Go wins the Oscar for Best Song, and get this—this is wild—the Frozen soundtrack is the best-selling album of 2014, selling 10 million copies with streaming equivalents in there. It even beat 1989 from Taylor Swift.

Ben Gilbert

Wow.

David Rosenthal

My girls love Taylor, but they might love Frozen even more.

Ben Gilbert

Wow.

David Rosenthal

The parks are revived. Disney launches Cars Land in L.A. in 2012.

Ben Gilbert

So, fun fact about that: before the acquisition of Pixar, they were originally developing Cars Land. And then they bought Pixar, and they thought, "Oh, well, let's just make Cars Land."

David Rosenthal

Hmm.

Ben Gilbert

This is back when the Imagineers independently developed lands that were unrelated to—

David Rosenthal

Hmm.

Ben Gilbert

—franchise flywheel stuff.

David Rosenthal

Yep. Overall, parks revenue nearly doubles, and operating income nearly triples in the decade from 2005, when Bob takes over, to 2015. And overall during that time period, Disney's market cap is up 4X to $200 billion, up from the $50 billion when Bob took over. Overall revenue grows from 32 billion to 52 billion. Operating income goes from $4.7 billion to $14.7 billion. Incredible.

Ben Gilbert

And I'm going to keep bringing this back to cable profits because that—

David Rosenthal

Yes.

Ben Gilbert

—continues to be this guaranteed, contractual, cash-gushing business that they have. If you line up those 3 acquisitions, which sound ludicrous on their price tags, especially when you didn't know how they were going to pay off, Pixar at $7.4 billion—let's even include the cash in there—that's about 2.5 years of cable's then profit.

David Rosenthal

Right.

Ben Gilbert

Marvel at $4 billion, that's less than 1 year in 2009 of cable profits. And Lucasfilm in 2012, their $4 billion was well under 1 year—

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

—of cable profits.

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

ESPN kept providing the cash to do all of this.

David Rosenthal

Such a good point. ESPN paid for Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm.

Ben Gilbert

With about 4 years of ESPN cable profits.

David Rosenthal

Right.

Ben Gilbert

It's almost like a Buffett-type thing, where Buffett has things in his portfolio that are cash producers and cash consumers, and he's just trying to construct the most efficient way to get cash out of the cash producers, where you can't effectively reinvest the capital, and put the cash into places where you can reinvest the capital.

David Rosenthal

Yep. So speaking of ESPN, come 2015, ESPN and all the rest of Disney are really riding high.

Ben Gilbert

The strategy looks completely genius, and Wall Street loves it, and consumers love it, and the franchises are all healthy and producing stuff people love, and the parks are doing great. Everyone at Disney looks like geniuses.

David Rosenthal

Yep. As you pointed out, it's like Bob has finally figured out a way to marry these 2 sides of the company. Use the cash flow geyser from ESPN to add to and feed the flywheel on the Disney side. It's all working great.

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

Unfortunately, the stock hit an all-time high on the very same day as Disney's Q3 2015 earnings call.

Ben Gilbert

Well, an all-time high except for that weird COVID aberration.

David Rosenthal

Right. That we'll get to.

Ben Gilbert

There was a little, short-lived moment where it went even higher in 2021.

David Rosenthal

Yep. So on that earnings call on August 4th, 2015, Bob Iger mentions that ESPN was experiencing, quote, "modest subscriber losses" due to consumer cord-cutting of cable subscriptions. It would come out later in Disney's annual report that ESPN lost 3 million subscribers that year, which still meant it had 92 million in total.

Ben Gilbert

But still, they'd only ever grown. I think they hit around 100 million and kind of stayed flat for a while because 100 million households—

David Rosenthal

Basically is all of America.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah. But ESPN and anything related to ESPN, revenue only ever went up, and profits only ever went up.

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

So this was a shock. Even though everyone had been talking for a while about—

David Rosenthal

Oh, cord-cutting is coming. This is—

Ben Gilbert

And young people, when they move, they don't necessarily activate a cable subscription. They like to access stuff online. It was like, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, but the numbers are still up and to the right, so we're all good.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

This sets off a barely controlled freak-out across—

David Rosenthal

the entire media landscape, with ESPN and this earnings call as ground zero. People knew that this was coming, like you said, Ben. Netflix was already a $50 billion market cap company at this point, so it shouldn't have been a surprise to anyone. But the very next day, Disney stock dropped 10%, and over the next couple of days, Fox, Time Warner, and Discovery all experienced similar drawdowns. Viacom, which people viewed as even more indexed to the cable network landscape, got whacked over 20%.

Ben Gilbert

And we should say, just so we don't bury the lede, Disney's stock price today is what it was then.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

It's gone up and down, but it's flat compared to 11 years ago.

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

Meanwhile, the S&P 500—David, what did you tell me it's up by over that time?

David Rosenthal

3.5× over that time period.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah. Now, market cap isn't everything, but it is a measure of what the investment community believes your company's cash flows are worth in the extreme long run.

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

So we're not here saying Disney's revenue has been flat or profit has been flat, although we'll get to all that. But what we are saying is that 11 years ago, people thought Disney's future was exactly as bright in the form of future cash flows as they believe it is today.

David Rosenthal

Yep. We're about to talk about what happens to the whole rest of the traditional media landscape after this earnings call.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah, Disney managed to stay independent.

David Rosenthal

Yeah, yeah. So that moment kicks off—I really don't know how to say it other than—the most insane period of panicked frenzy in media landscape history, maybe in any industry's history. Basically, everyone in the TV and film landscape decides all at once that they need to take dramatic action to respond to cord cutting and the rise of streaming.

Over the next couple of years, Time Warner sells itself to AT&T. AT&T changes its mind and spins out Time Warner, which then merges with Discovery. Viacom re-merges with CBS, but none of those brands are any good, so they decide to name themselves Paramount after the studio that they own. Paramount almost collapses under its debt load, and David and Larry Ellison—yes, of course, that Larry Ellison—buy it and merge it into Skydance Media, so it becomes Paramount Skydance.

Ben Gilbert

Which is the thing that David Ellison kind of founded and runs.

David Rosenthal

Yep. And then, of course, this all culminates in what's happening here in real time in 2026, where Warner Bros. Discovery almost gets bought by Netflix, and instead looks like it's getting merged into the Paramount Skydance fever dream. It's insanity out there.

Ben Gilbert

Well, it's now on hold—

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

pending legal challenges as of the recording date, so we'll see.

David Rosenthal

But what's really happening is that all of these traditional media companies, with the exception of Disney, have basically all become kind of serfs in the streaming kingdoms of the technology companies, of which Netflix and YouTube are actually the winners here.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah, I think that's the right way to phrase it. If you just do the very simple exercise of looking at who generates profits in the movie and TV Hollywood landscape right now, it is Netflix, YouTube, and Disney generating the large profit streams.

David Rosenthal

Yep. So Disney decides to launch Disney+. Bob and the board basically draw a line in the sand, and they say, “We're not going to just sit around and let ourselves get Netflixed like everyone else. We're going to stand and fight toe-to-toe. We are going to build our own direct-to-consumer streaming company.”

This goes back to Bob's priority number 2 in his strategy presentation to the board when he became CEO. Look, this is totally laudable. It's also arguably necessary. Without Disney+ and its own streaming service, Disney wouldn't have the ability to control discoverability of its films and shows, and that's so important. You want to get people into the parks; they have to interact with the IP and the characters.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah, it's funny. You and I sort of had this thesis coming in where you just keep the hundreds of millions of dollars that Netflix is paying you each year, and you keep putting your content on Netflix and other places. Everything downstream of that—all the consumer products and parks and everything—works better because you're spreading your content across the whole world.

David Rosenthal

And the problem with that thesis is that once Netflix's algorithm controls whether families see your movies or not, you've got a big problem.

Ben Gilbert

That's right. That's right. You have no sort of guaranteed distribution. Having Disney+, and we'll talk about all the trade-offs involved in this in a minute, because, God, are there trade-offs, but the thesis is: If we do this and stand up our own streaming service, then we can form deep, direct relationships with consumers.

We can create these whole universes on Disney+ that more deeply explore the characters from given movies, which creates more IP that the parks can use, which creates these merchandising opportunities, spinoff shows, and all this stuff. On top of this, it's crazy to think that Disney didn't have any relationship with any of its customers prior to this unless you had visited a park.

For 100 years, if you bought a home video, you bought it from a retailer. If you went to a theater, you went to a theater, or if you had a cable subscription, Disney did not know who you were.

David Rosenthal

Yeah. Disney didn't collect revenue directly from consumers except in the parks.

Ben Gilbert

And they didn't collect email addresses or home addresses or demographic information. They just got the checks—

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

—from the people they were distributing through and trusted there was an end consumer on the other side.

David Rosenthal

Yep. So after August 2015, Bob and the board decide very quickly, “Let's go build our own Netflix competitor”—or, more accurately, “Let's go buy the pieces we need to build it.” Disney doesn't have any in-house capabilities to build and operate an internet streaming service here.

Ben Gilbert

Right.

David Rosenthal

And this is when Disney almost buys Twitter.

Ben Gilbert

The forgotten chapter.

David Rosenthal

The forgotten chapter. Thankfully, the chapter that did not come to pass. So they start looking around: What scaled internet companies are out there that we could buy and use as a base to set up our streaming service? Basically, the only ones within reach are Twitter and Snapchat.

Ben Gilbert

Everything else is just too big. I mean, they're giant market cap companies.

David Rosenthal

Too big, too expensive.

Ben Gilbert

They're giant market cap companies.

David Rosenthal

Jack Dorsey also happens to be on the Disney board at the time, so they basically get all the way to a deal, and then at the last minute, Bob backs out. He just can't imagine Disney owning and operating Twitter, and that was probably the right decision.

Ben Gilbert

I think it was all papered, and they were going to sign Monday morning and announce it, right?

David Rosenthal

Yep. Yep. Yep.

Ben Gilbert

It was Sunday night that he bailed on it.

David Rosenthal

Yep, something like that. It was very last minute. So once the Twitter deal falls apart, they turn to a far more logical candidate, although a more hidden one: BAMTech.

Ben Gilbert

Yes.

David Rosenthal

BAMTech is this incredible story. It is a streaming technology platform that was part of Major League Baseball. They began a streaming service for baseball games all the way back in 2002. Initially—I remembered this from the research when I went back and looked at it—they started streaming Seattle Mariners games to Japan—

Ben Gilbert

That's right.

David Rosenthal

—because Ichiro had come to MLB and was a phenomenon back in Japan.

Ben Gilbert

That's right.

David Rosenthal

And I think Nintendo owned the Mariners at this point.

Ben Gilbert

That's right. Nintendo of America—

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

—owned the Mariners. This group actually started MLB Advanced Media by making websites for Major League Baseball teams—

David Rosenthal

Yes.

Ben Gilbert

—and then they got into streaming for Japan and Ichiro.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

And then, when they spun out of baseball, I think they stood up the streaming back end for the then-fledgling HBO Now.

David Rosenthal

Yes, yes. And they had also taken on the NHL, so they were doing the NHL's—

Ben Gilbert

Okay.

David Rosenthal

—streaming service. So it's kind of perfect. They can do sports streaming, and they've run HBO Now, a streaming service for HBO. It's perfect.

In August 2016, Disney buys a 33% stake in BAMTech from Major League Baseball, with an option to increase that to a majority stake over the next couple of years. The next year, in 2017, they announce that they're going to accelerate that option to purchase a controlling stake in BAMTech, and they announce publicly that they will be launching an over-the-top direct-to-consumer streaming service for ESPN the next year, in 2018, and then a Disney streaming service in 2019.

As part of the same announcement, Ben, as you alluded to, they say they will be ending their content agreements with Netflix and pulling all Disney, Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm content off of Netflix by 2019. Netflix was already paying them hundreds of millions of dollars annually for that content.

Ben Gilbert

Yep. And that's just pure profit.

David Rosenthal

Yeah, no expenses associated with that.

Ben Gilbert

Which Disney at that point was generating about $15 billion in Disney-wide operating income at that time. So that's 2-ish percent of the company's profits coming from that one Netflix deal.

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

And they're just saying, “All right, we're going to rip that up. We think it is worth it in the long run for us to start from zero, build an entire customer base, and then reach this customer base directly.”

David Rosenthal

And look, this is another point where having ESPN as part of the company as a bulwark, even though ESPN is now declining, is critical.

Ben Gilbert

That's what enables Disney to do this.

David Rosenthal

That's a great point, and it means that you have to nerf the ESPN offering on streaming because you need to keep that gravy train flowing in. The ESPN+ thing ended up debuting in 2018.

Ben Gilbert

It's kind of a nothing burger. Yeah.

David Rosenthal

Yeah, it's all the content that almost no one wants to watch because all the good stuff is still on ESPN, the cable channel that prints cash. So we're going to leave it there, thank you very much.

Ben Gilbert

And look, it's a really tough thing for the ESPN side of the business to move to direct-to-consumer because part of the whole magic of the affiliate-fee business model is you get paid a subscriber fee whether those subscribers watch the channel or not. All of a sudden, you're now going to an actual usage-based model.

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

“Hey, I'm only going to get paid by the people who want to watch this.”

David Rosenthal

Well, this is the magic of bundling: you get some money from the people who would never have paid you any money before if you were trying to sell just one product. There are way fewer people who are willing to subscribe for a high-dollar amount—call it $30—to ESPN directly than there are people who are willing to pay $50, $70, $80, or $100 for all the channels. You're missing out on all of those casual fans.

Ben Gilbert

The non-consumers.

David Rosenthal

That's right. That's right.

Ben Gilbert

So Bob basically issues an all-hands-on-deck directive. He directs all the creative studios within Disney—Disney Animation, Disney Live Action, Pixar, Lucasfilm, and Marvel—to start producing content and gearing up specifically for the new first-party Disney streaming service coming in 2019, on top of all the existing slate of content that they were also working on. Then he gets a call from Rupert Murdoch. Rupert says that he and Fox are obviously going through the same strategic reviews and exercises as Disney and every other media company, and he has concluded that the best path forward for Fox is to combine with Disney and lend its scale, its content, and its efforts to Disney's first-party streaming service to compete with Netflix.

David Rosenthal

Well, to combine some of its assets. Basically, Fox did an analysis and looked at everything that had library value—rewatchability. The highest and best use of a library over the coming decades is going to be on these streaming services: the deep catalog. I fall asleep at night watching The Office.

I have Peacock because they have library content, so I can watch The Office. Same thing with Arrested Development, same thing with Seinfeld. They ran all the numbers and decided, “We don't really want to be in the streaming game over here at Fox. Let's try to fetch a high value for people who do.”

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

They need that library content. But I think we'll keep everything that has all of its value on first run: news, sports. They went all in on linear TV instead of keeping the library, which would require building out the streaming service. It's the opposite of Disney. Disney keeps things that have high rewatchability and monetizes them over and over.

Ben Gilbert

Yep. Now, you said Rupert and Fox ran some analysis on their library vis-à-vis streaming. I suspect part of that analysis also led them to the conclusion that, “Hey, our library just isn't strong enough to be compelling as a streaming product.” It's true: it's got Avatar. That's great. It's got The Simpsons.

David Rosenthal

Come on, how often are people rewatching Avatar?

Ben Gilbert

Exactly. The Simpsons is rewatchable, maybe.

David Rosenthal

Family Guy. Family Guy's rewatchable.

Ben Gilbert

Family Guy. Yep.

David Rosenthal

The National Geographic Channel.

Ben Gilbert

But it's a lot of live-action film IP.

David Rosenthal

We do have the FX network, which has It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia and a bunch of great shows.

Ben Gilbert

Right. It's not zero, but it's not anywhere near enough to be compelling on its own.

David Rosenthal

And its synergy value is actually a lot higher than the value is just to Fox. Because if you start to look at some of these things—X-Men, Deadpool, Wolverine, Fantastic Four—those are actually worth a lot more to Disney than they are to us.

Ben Gilbert

Exactly. Bingo. So, in December 2017, they announce the deal. Disney will be acquiring all the entertainment and international assets of Fox in a $52 billion all-stock transaction. So not Fox News, not Fox Sports, not the Fox broadcast network, but the library and all the general entertainment assets.

David Rosenthal

And that $52 billion was after a lot of back-and-forth negotiation. It was best and final. Everyone at Disney ran all the models they possibly could to see, “What is the very most we could pay to get the value that we need out of these assets?” So the deal's done-ish.

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

It just needs regulatory approval, which is going to take several months, as it always does.

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

During the regulatory approval process, a different ruling around AT&T's merger causes Comcast to go—

Ben Gilbert

That's right.

David Rosenthal

“Huh.” We previously counted ourselves out for these assets because we didn't think it was going to pass regulatory approval. I bet it would've. Let's see if we can lob in a bid. Even though Disney and Fox say they have a done deal, let's just throw in a bid and see.

Ben Gilbert

Comcast once again. Disney ends up getting bid up to $71.3 billion.

David Rosenthal

A full $19 billion more than they had originally signed the deal for. That's a free $19 billion for Fox shareholders because Comcast lobbed in the bid.

Ben Gilbert

Yep. Disney's total market cap at the time was around $170 billion, so this is 40% of the value of the entire Walt Disney Company. Way more than Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm all combined. Now, to be fair, they do the deal. Disney is able to pay down a lot of that purchase price pretty quickly through divestitures of Fox's regional sports networks and then its stake in Sky, the British pay-TV operator.

David Rosenthal

Yeah. Those numbers were $14 billion and $15 billion, so together you can actually back it down $29 billion. The real price of what Disney paid and the assets they kept was about $44 billion. So that's the hurdle to overcome in trying to make this acquisition pay back.

Ben Gilbert

Yep. And they probably don't get anywhere near $44 billion worth of value out of the assets that they do get. As we talked about, the library assets for the streaming service, sure, they're nice to have, but they're not really going to drive that many sign-ups or retentions for the service.

David Rosenthal

Wolverine and Deadpool had a big box-office win. Avatar now has lands in the parks.

Ben Gilbert

Yep. True. Yeah, it's not nothing.

David Rosenthal

They did get a third of Hulu as part of this deal. So they already owned a third. This gave them a third, so then they had a controlling interest.

Ben Gilbert

Yep. Another big part of the strategic rationale for the deal and for the increased price was that Fox had a lot of India assets—

David Rosenthal

That's right.

Ben Gilbert

Both content and distribution. And this is back to Bob's strategic pillar number 3 for the company. Great, we need to enter India. This is a great way to do it. Those assets end up not performing for Disney nearly as well as they thought they would. They end up merging them with Reliance in 2024 in a deal that values them at only a fraction of what they valued them at in the Fox acquisition.

David Rosenthal

Yeah. But the general philosophy of going to buy a deep library and buying a third of a general streaming service with Hulu—not a specialized, curated one with universes like Disney—does give them this kitchen sink in addition to their highly curated thing with Disney+, where you can scale this general entertainment platform without diluting the pristine Disney brand, as long as you can keep Disney+ really separate from Hulu in the mind of consumers. That's the strategy.

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

But certainly it's the worst of the 4 big acquisitions, 5 if you include BAMTech.

Ben Gilbert

Yep. Either way, the deal closes in March 2019, right before Disney announces the long-awaited Disney streaming service the very next month, in April 2019, at an investor day they hold to announce Disney+. The vault is now open.

David Rosenthal

I loved this.

Ben Gilbert

It was great.

David Rosenthal

The clarity of the product vision of the original Disney+ is incredibly laudable.

Ben Gilbert

Totally. It was a very compelling product: all of Disney's IP, Pixar, Lucasfilm, Marvel, and the Fox assets coming in. Then they announce the price: $6.99 a month initially.

David Rosenthal

Consumers go nuts.

Ben Gilbert

Nuts.

David Rosenthal

They beat every early projection they had for sign-ups to this thing.

Ben Gilbert

Wall Street loves it. The stock jumps 11% the next day. By the end of April 2019, the stock is up 20%. When the service finally launches in November, Disney gets 10 million sign-ups within the first 24 hours and 26 million in the first quarter.

The setup for all this looks great. Here we are midway through 2019. Pixar and Disney Animation are soaring. Lucasfilm is crushing it. They're 2/3 of the way through the new Star Wars trilogy, plus they've made Rogue One.

David Rosenthal

Art.

Ben Gilbert

An amazing movie. The Marvel run is just reaching its apex, its peak—unprecedented in Hollywood history. Avengers: Endgame is about to come out and set new records all over the world.

David Rosenthal

$2.8 billion in box-office gross just from that film.

Yep. But unfortunately, all is not quite as well as it seems. Under the hood, each of Disney's core IP pillars is actually not in a great place right now.

Ben Gilbert

I'd call them fully exploited.

David Rosenthal

Well, that's part of it. There's a bunch of problems. At Pixar and Disney Animation, they're in the midst of a major leadership transition. John Lasseter has just been kicked out of the company, and Ed Catmull has just retired, so they need new leadership at both of the marquee studios of Disney. Lucasfilm looks great, but it's on the cusp of a major crisis. Solo just bombed in theaters, and audiences don't know it yet, but Episode IX is in trouble. Major trouble.

Ben Gilbert

Well, Episode VIII and IX did not have a cohesive vision between the two and had different directors.

David Rosenthal

Yes.

Ben Gilbert

So Episode VIII went in this interesting but somewhat not Star Wars-y direction.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

And then Episode IX had to smear Star Wars Vaseline all over the top of it so that you would remember that it was still Star Wars, so much so that we got Palpatine back from the dead again and 10,000 Star Destroyers rising up from a planet.

David Rosenthal

It was bad.

Ben Gilbert

A little foresight and vision would've been nice.

David Rosenthal

Yeah, yeah. But nobody knows this yet because the film doesn't come out until December of that year.

Ben Gilbert

Episode VIII was so different from the films around it, it's like no one was talking to each other.

David Rosenthal

And there was no plan—

Ben Gilbert

Right.

David Rosenthal

—for Episode IX. That was the problem.

Ben Gilbert

Right.

David Rosenthal

And then Marvel—Marvel's on this absolute high with Avengers: Endgame, but the problem is it's literally an endgame. The story ends right as Disney is now saying, "Oh, hey, Marvel, we need you to start pumping out even more content for the streaming service."

Ben Gilbert

And it ends in this beautiful cinematic fashion. It tied 15 different strings all together. Marvel actually did have a tremendous amount of foresight. It was highly coordinated. I think I cried in that last scene.

David Rosenthal

Oh, it was so good.

Ben Gilbert

It shows each character as they're reflecting back on the whole thing, and the way they handled the Snap. The character development of the villain, Thanos—he's a very relatable villain. He's a villain that's trying to do the right thing. It's the best kind of villain. Really elegant if the endgame is the endgame.

David Rosenthal

Right. Really inelegant if you're about to follow it up by increasing production 50% in the studio.

Ben Gilbert

Yes.

David Rosenthal

Yeah, which they do.

Ben Gilbert

And if you do flash forward, the post-2021 movie slate might actually be negative on a theatrical return. If you look at The Marvels—

David Rosenthal

For Marvel.

Ben Gilbert

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, Eternals. This is even ignoring the Disney+ shows, some of which were very cool, like Loki and WandaVision, but their existence, by trying to be bigger and broader and more expansive even than the movies, makes the original universe feel unimportant.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

My beef with Loki is, who cares about Thanos when he's killing people in just one strand of an infinite multiverse? All you should care about is what Loki's doing versus that pathetic little thing called the MCU. I just spent a decade of my life investing in that, and now you're telling me it didn't even matter?

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

So there's this big issue that it's supposed to be over, and both creatively and commercially, the stuff that comes after, people don't want it, whether it's on streaming or whether it's in theaters, other than the second Black Panther, which was amazing.

David Rosenthal

That was great.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah.

David Rosenthal

That was great.

But all of this, and everything you're saying, highlights the strategic trade-off that Disney made in pursuing the streaming strategy to go toe-to-toe with Netflix. Operating a tier-one direct-to-consumer streaming business is yet another wholly and completely different business model than either the core Disney flywheel or the ESPN affiliate-fee model.

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

If you're gonna try and operate a tier-one streaming service, a service that is going to reach the maximum number of subscribers—not a niche service, but a Netflix-type competitor—your number-one job is to retain subscribers that have signed up.

Ben Gilbert

You gotta feed the beast.

David Rosenthal

You need to feed the beast.

Ben Gilbert

You gotta give those existing subscribers content, or they're gonna churn.

David Rosenthal

Exactly. So I want to quote Ben Gilbert here.

Ben Gilbert

Oh, God. When?

David Rosenthal

From the end of Acquired's 2019 Disney+ episode, in which we were incredibly excited about Disney+. It was so exciting back then. But you did say one thing at the end of the episode. You said, quote:

"One reason to doubt it," it being Disney+, "is I think Disney may be underestimating just how much content people need to stay satiated. It's a beautiful and amazing thing to have access to the entire back catalog of all these really storied franchises, but am I gonna pay $7 a month to keep an option available to go watch those things? No. If I ever wanna re-watch a Star Wars movie, I'll just reactivate my subscription at a given time. They really do need to aggressively turn on a fire hose of content here."

Ben Gilbert

Oh, man.

David Rosenthal

You summed it up. You summed it up. This is the problem.

Ben Gilbert

Oof.

David Rosenthal

That whole strategy of a fire hose of content is completely orthogonal to—

Ben Gilbert

Yes.

David Rosenthal

—the flywheel strategy of only the best content very infrequently.

Ben Gilbert

And that is what Disney did: the best content infrequently, with a theatrical release, a cultural moment around it, and then be quiet for a while.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

And harvest the fruits of that one movie, but be quiet for a while. Streaming is the exact freaking opposite. Every time I open that, there better be something new and fresh for me to consume. And I gotta wonder how much the Disney folks knew that when they made this decision to push all their chips in and accelerate going to streaming in a direct-to-consumer way.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

The biggest issue really is that Disney had something to lose. They had 2 things to lose. They had an existing content library that was highly differentiated, and when you bolt things onto a universe of a differentiated library, it makes the original content less valuable.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

I remember watching the Obi-Wan TV show on Disney+ and being like, "Oh, man, that shatters how I think about Obi-Wan."

David Rosenthal

Yeah, it's not as cool as I thought it was.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah. Because you have something to lose, you actually risk destroying the stuff you had that's great by corrupting it and destroying the competitive advantage that you have in the marketplace.

David Rosenthal

This is such a good point. In a top-tier, high-quality content, stories, and characters world, every time you make a sequel, you're taking a big risk.

Ben Gilbert

Totally.

David Rosenthal

And this is the risk.

Ben Gilbert

This is why Disney didn't make sequels—

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

—prior to the '90s.

David Rosenthal

Yep. Now, Pixar proved to them that you can make sequels, and they can be great.

Ben Gilbert

And you can do it well—

David Rosenthal

But you need to put that same amount of care and effort and time into it.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah, Pixar does 1 every 7 years.

David Rosenthal

Yep. You can't increase the production line.

Ben Gilbert

The second thing is that the Disney brand itself means something.

David Rosenthal

Yes.

Ben Gilbert

The Netflix brand doesn't mean anything to anyone. The Netflix brand is the button that I push on my TV when I wanna watch stuff. Sometimes it's great stuff, but if it's not great stuff, whatever. It whizzes by. I don't think one way or another about Netflix. The Disney brand has something to lose. And so if you have a bunch of bombs in a row, I think less of the Disney brand, which again, takes away your compounding competitive advantage by being Disney. Whereas if you release a bunch of great things in a row, even if they're more spaced out over time and you're really judicious with it, which is not congruent with the streaming operating model, then it can really add to the brand bucket of the Disney brand. So Disney sort of has this compounding asset that is at risk when going head-to-head with Netflix.

David Rosenthal

Yep, yep, yep. So that's all the strategic trade-offs on the Disney film and TV side. Then there's the whole cable ESPN side of the house.

Ben Gilbert

Yes. What is going on there in this 2018–'19 period? Well, as you can imagine, cable subscriptions are only getting canceled at a faster and faster rate, which can actually still be fine. You can actually still grow your revenue for a while if you're in the highly leveraged position that ESPN is, because you can just raise your prices faster than—

David Rosenthal

Cancellations are happening? Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

Exactly. But later on, around 2023, even this would come to a head. The declines were happening too rapidly, and affiliate-fee increases could no longer outpace subscriber losses, and revenue then would start to decline from 2023 into 2024.

David Rosenthal

Basically, cable and ESPN enter the Endgame, to use an Avengers term.

Ben Gilbert

Yes, yes. So that's on ESPN's revenue side. On the cost side, there's another big problem.

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

Sure, people are churning off cable, but that's manageable as long as your costs stay fixed. But the sports leagues have now realized that they can extract much more value. It turns out that in this whole value chain of watching a sports game, way more of the profits should be going to the sports league than to the network that's sort of sitting in the middle.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

And the NFL and the NBA—I think they just didn't fully extract everything that they could have for decades.

David Rosenthal

That probably is true, but they were hamstrung because there really weren't any other bidders except ESPN for so much of these rights. ESPN had this whole scale-economies power: because they were getting the most cash in affiliate fees, they could pay the biggest prices for sports rights and block everybody else out, except for the really, really big stuff that the broadcast networks would come after, too. Now, other bidders show up in the form of the tech companies.

Ben Gilbert

And the tech companies not only have these incredibly deep pockets, at least until all of them started destroying all their free cash flow doing AI CapEx.

David Rosenthal

Building data centers.

Ben Gilbert

Yes. But they have more ways to monetize the consumer, so they can afford to bid more for the same consumer than ESPN or a TV network could, because Amazon can get you as a Prime subscriber.

David Rosenthal

This is Amazon's NFL deal right here.

Ben Gilbert

Yes. So any student of economics will see the writing on the wall here. The price is set by the highest bidder, and if somebody has a business model that structurally can out-monetize what you can, then they're going to win, and the price is going to be set by them.

David Rosenthal

Yep. This is why ESPN won for many years, and this is why the tech companies are winning now.

Ben Gilbert

The other thing driving the prices up is that, as you get more and more abundance of content online and onlineness, there is an increasing return to shared cultural experiences happening live, in a way that made sports way more important than they ever have been before. The prices people were paying for World Cup final tickets, Taylor Swift tour tickets, and Super Bowl tickets—that sort of manifests in rights deals, too.

David Rosenthal

Right. There's a trickle-down effect.

Ben Gilbert

Exactly. So in 2006, just look at the Monday Night Football package that ESPN buys. In 2006, it was $1.1 billion; in 2011, it was $1.9 billion a year; and by 2021, it went up to $2.7 billion a year. The viewership for Monday Night Football is actually going up, even amidst all this—

David Rosenthal

Hmm.

Ben Gilbert

—cord-cutting. It turns out that the NFL is the thing that we all want to watch.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

The structural force, though, that's working against ESPN here is that ESPN used to be the only place that you could go to watch highlights and replays, and now you can get a lot of that on social media. So in the long run, if the main reason to subscribe to any given channel ends up being about the game content itself, and not differentiated by stuff around the game, then the excess profits in the long term will just be captured by the rights holders like the NFL and the NBA.

David Rosenthal

Yep. And to be clear, we've probably undersold ESPN's creativity and innovation in this episode.

Ben Gilbert

Totally.

David Rosenthal

I mean, highlights, SportsCenter, everything they did was—

Ben Gilbert

Even more recently—

David Rosenthal

—absolutely incredible.

Ben Gilbert

—the Pat McAfee Show or, my God, ManningCast. I cannot wait for fall to watch ManningCast and Monday Night Football.

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

It is the thing I look forward to from July 15 onward.

David Rosenthal

They really are the best of the best at high-quality content production around sports. However, this is not the same as Disney. Sports have a very limited shelf life. You are not going back and watching ManningCast episodes from last season.

Ben Gilbert

Yes.

David Rosenthal

The flywheel does not apply here, so you can't build long-term value around that original content. Sure, you can with 30 for 30 and stuff like that, but that's so small and niche at ESPN. The vast majority of the production that ESPN is making has a very, very limited shelf life.

Ben Gilbert

That's so interesting, because the content has a very limited shelf life, but they've locked up these incredibly predictable revenue streams. There's ad sales. They have to figure out how they're going to do in ad sales, but that's plus or minus a few percent. They know a few years from now how much free cash flow they're going to get from ESPN in a way that they have no idea from their movie slate. It has been this stabilizing force.

David Rosenthal

Oh, yeah. The beauty that we've talked about on this episode, that Iger ended up realizing of having these 2 businesses together, was to take that stable cash flow and use it to invest in the Disney flywheel.

Ben Gilbert

Right.

David Rosenthal

I'm just making the point that it's not like, as ESPN has come under this pressure, they could start building their own flywheel here.

Ben Gilbert

Right.

David Rosenthal

It's like, no, no, this is a declining asset.

Ben Gilbert

Right. Right, right, right. All right, so take us forward. How does Disney+ go? How does ESPN+ go?

David Rosenthal

So for better or for worse, I think Disney either doesn't see or doesn't have to deal with the fact that they have these pretty major strategic issues on both sides of the house with their streaming strategy, because the minute after they launch it, the entire world gets turned upside down.

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

Disney+ launches in November 2019.

Ben Gilbert

It's unbelievable that it was just sitting there right on app stores and in TVs the moment COVID hit.

David Rosenthal

Yeah. In February 2020, Bob Iger retires as CEO. This COVID thing is starting to happen. He says, “Hey, I'm going to remain as executive chairman for a little while to help stabilize the transition, especially in the parks, in the couple of weeks before we reopen everything here.”

Ben Gilbert

Yeah.

David Rosenthal

Oh, man. Bob Chapek, of course, who was head of the parks division, has come in as the new CEO. March 2020 comes, and everybody realizes this COVID thing isn't a couple-week kind of thing here. Disney's market cap drops 40% in March of 2020 because the parks business goes to zero—actually zero. Nobody's there.

Ben Gilbert

I mean, Disney's net income that year was actually negative.

David Rosenthal

Yeah. And then the roller coaster goes up. Ben, as you said, Disney+ is just sitting there. Everybody's at home now. When they announced Disney+ originally, Disney said that their goal was to get 60 to 90 million subscribers within 5 years. All of a sudden, COVID happens, everybody's sitting at home. Disney gets 100 million subscribers within 16 months. In March 2021, they announce they've passed 100 million subscribers, blown way past even their most aggressive projections. The stock goes to the moon.

Ben Gilbert

Well, that's the other thing. It was zero interest rates, so any good sign—the market's amplitude is higher than normal.

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

Disney's market cap in March 2021, on this announcement, hits $360 billion at its peak.

David Rosenthal

Wow.

Ben Gilbert

They all look like geniuses, and for the moment, they were. All these strategic questions we've talked about are non-issues.

And worth noting, it hit that peak right around January 1 of 2021, and by October 2021, it had begun its fall right back down to where it started.

David Rosenthal

Yep. So that December of 2021, Bob Iger fully retires. As we head into the next year, there start to be some cracks in the Disney+ strategy. Subscriber numbers are still good, but churn is high, and they're spending a lot of money acquiring and reacquiring subscribers. This is the treadmill of a Netflix competitor streaming service. You have to not only provide the content to people every month, but you have to tell them about it. On the ESPN side, ESPN didn't do the marketing to consumers. That was the cable company's job. They got the subscribers. They managed the churn. On the Disney side—

Ben Gilbert

Yeah, you have to advertise a new movie so they—

David Rosenthal

Sure, sure. Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

—spend tens of millions or hundreds of millions of dollars advertising the new film.

David Rosenthal

But there is no concept of churn.

Ben Gilbert

Right.

David Rosenthal

You're not trying to keep everybody.

Ben Gilbert

Right. So the interesting thing is, they're all in on this Disney+ and Hulu streaming strategy. And the question is, is there actually a pile of gold worth chasing in streaming? It's structurally a worse business, as you were just mentioning, than the old cable bundle where you just got checks. Consumers can cancel easily. They do so every few months. It's expensive to make the amount of content you need to make, especially now with the quality that people expect out of streaming content. They expect cinema-like—

David Rosenthal

Theatrical quality.

Ben Gilbert

—TV shows. Consumers don't want to have a zillion services. You have to build your own technology and keep the user experience great as platforms add new features and change the UI and everything, which is very expensive. You have to hire and pay good engineers, good designers, and good product people. You have to acquire your own customers directly—expensive. You have to retain your own customers directly—expensive.

David Rosenthal

When they churn, you have to reacquire them.

Ben Gilbert

That's right. And critically, you don't get a second exploitation window the way that a limited-edition home-video re-release has.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

Theatrical re-releases followed by home-video windows—

David Rosenthal

Oh.

Ben Gilbert

That was the business—

David Rosenthal

That was the best—

Ben Gilbert

—to be in.

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

And sitting here grumbling about it and wishing that that could come back is not the answer, but Disney is sort of seeing the reality in 2023 and 2024 that, oh my God, streaming wasn't just: invest some money to build it out 1 time, and then we've got this great asset.

David Rosenthal

It's this constant, expensive, nurturing thing that we haven't had to deal with before.

Ben Gilbert

Yep. So heading into 2022, Bob Chapek does a reorganization, basically reorganizing the entire company around the streaming strategy. He consolidates all the studios together into one reporting segment, Disney Media and Entertainment Distribution, or DMED. Meanwhile, losses at Disney+ are just piling up as they're spending all of this money on production, customer acquisition costs, churn management, and technology development. It culminates in November 2022, in Disney's fiscal Q4 earnings call, when investors start asking a lot of questions about these losses at Disney+ and Bob Chapek and the company's strategy for addressing them, and it does not go well.

David Rosenthal

Well, there are all these other self-inflicted wounds all over the company. They announce they're moving a bunch of Imagineers to Florida, and then they cancel that expansion even after a bunch of them had already bought houses. Then there's the whole spat between Chapek and the governor of Florida.

Ben Gilbert

Oh, yes.

David Rosenthal

Then they designed, built, opened, and operated a Star Wars-themed hotel at Disney World that I was very excited to go to. I mean, it's super expensive, but I really wanted to go.

Ben Gilbert

You would've paid it, yeah.

David Rosenthal

And then they promptly closed it. It felt like a company in complete disarray, even aside from the streaming challenges and losses.

Ben Gilbert

After the earnings call, the board meets and fires Bob Chapek as CEO of Disney, two and a bit years into his tenure. Bob Iger returns out of retirement to become CEO again and stabilize the ship.

David Rosenthal

Yeah. You and I have been going back and forth. Why did Bob come back? Why did Bob need to come back? What does it mean that Bob came back? Ultimately, I think they just chose the wrong guy—

Ben Gilbert

Yeah.

David Rosenthal

—in Bob Chapek, and I think Iger's mistake in recommending Bob Chapek for the job was thinking that the company was about to enter a peacetime, a time when it needed a caretaker, when it needed the exact opposite.

Ben Gilbert

Like, "Ah, yeah, all the pieces are in place. Disney+, it's doing great."

David Rosenthal

But they weren't. What Disney+ ended up being is so different from the original thing they conceived of Disney+ as. It's a super-different business, a different business model, and all the downstream effects of the Disney+ strategy meant it wasn't just, "Great, execute the strategy now." We're still learning a lot in real time. So it's almost like the person who set that in motion needed to see it through, and it was by no means just a time to keep your hand on the wheel and make sure the company was cared for.

Ben Gilbert

Yep, and then things got crazier. 2023 was the year of the Hollywood strikes.

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

And then there's another proxy shareholder fight, this time with Ike Perlmutter, who was the previous owner and chairman of Marvel, and his friend and activist investor Nelson Peltz. They launched a public proxy fight against Disney. Ultimately, it doesn't go anywhere, but it's a major distraction that costs a lot of time and money. And then there's this big question of what to do with the declining asset of ESPN.

David Rosenthal

It's so funny. I've just been sitting over here chuckling about this declining asset of ESPN. It's a declining asset that does $3 billion a year in operating income.

Ben Gilbert

Right. Right.

David Rosenthal

I mean, this is still a cash gusher.

Ben Gilbert

I'll take that declining asset, thank you very much. Yeah.

David Rosenthal

Right. And when you say declining, it might be more fair to call it flat. The cable side is declining, but the thesis is maybe they can, using the ESPN streaming service—I don't know that Disney would acknowledge that it is a declining asset.

Ben Gilbert

Which actually explains Wall Street's agitation to spin it out. "Ooh, it's not any good in Disney anymore. I would like that, please."

David Rosenthal

Right.

Ben Gilbert

In response to that, in October 2023, they separate ESPN out into its own business segment for the first time in Disney's financial reporting. So there's now a sports business segment, which is ESPN. Basically, that's creating optionality to spin it out.

David Rosenthal

If that's the thinking, then I want them to make a segment for general streaming entertainment, like Hulu with Fox-like assets on it. That should be its own non-Disney company.

Ben Gilbert

All right. Well, we'll get there. We'll get there. In 2025, they do a deal with the NFL. The NFL trades the NFL Network cable channel into ESPN in return for a 10% stake in ESPN itself.

David Rosenthal

I love this deal in so many ways.

Ben Gilbert

Great deal for everybody.

David Rosenthal

The NFL gets 10% of ESPN, which is great if you're ESPN, honestly. It's like, "Woo, good, they're invested in our success." And then, what is the NFL doing in this content production and distribution business? It made no sense. So having NFL Network and RedZone and all that live over on ESPN, which is their core competency, what they're good at, I love it.

Ben Gilbert

And for the NFL, they want ESPN to continue to be a viable bidder for their rights, so—

David Rosenthal

Right, to maximize the value—

Ben Gilbert

—it's in their interest to prop up ESPN.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

Finally, at the end of the year, they launch the long-awaited full direct-to-consumer ESPN service, ESPN Unlimited: $30 a month for full, unlimited access to all ESPN channels. They aggressively bundle it with Disney+ and Hulu. Basically, if you subscribe to ESPN+, you can add Disney+ and Hulu for only an extra $6 a month.

David Rosenthal

No-brainer. Which is actually done for 2 reasons that I did not fully appreciate at first. The first is obviously the general bundling theory, which is, "Even if I'm not that big of a Disney+ fan, I'll just subscribe to this whole bundle." That way, you get subscribers that you wouldn't have otherwise—the casual fan. The second thing that I didn't realize Disney has really keyed into is churn mitigation.

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

The bundle subscribers churn at a much lower rate than any individual streaming service because you're not thinking that hard about, "How much value am I getting out of this particular app this month?"

Ben Gilbert

Yeah, there was just so much that Disney had to learn about operating direct-to-consumer streaming services.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

The real story of the last couple of years, though, has been the parks. Man, coming out of COVID, the parks have just been crushing it. There are all sorts of criticisms that you could levy at them, and people do, like they're charging too much and they're nickel-and-diming. But especially as ESPN has been declining and as Disney+ streaming has had a rocky go at best over the last couple of years, the parks have totally filled that gap.

David Rosenthal

David, it's so funny you say they've been crushing it. Visitors are actually down.

Ben Gilbert

On a financial basis.

David Rosenthal

Everything is about price increases. There are 145 million people who visit the parks each year. Before the pandemic, it was actually 157 million. That was their all-time high. So they are down from the pre-pandemic high, even 6 years after the pandemic. But of course, the amount that they make per visit is way up and has climbed, I don't know, 5% per year for decades now.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah, maybe that is a double-edged sword.

David Rosenthal

But maybe it's not. On the other hand, every time I go to Disneyland, it's super full. It doesn't seem to be keeping people away.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah, exactly. That was the point I was going to make, too. I think consumers have had some version of that complaint about Disney ever since Michael Eisner took over in 1984.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

And it doesn't keep people away.

David Rosenthal

And if it did, they would stop doing it.

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

Because it's in Disney's interest to keep a giant middle class wrapped around the Disney brand. I mean, if you could get the same amount of revenue from 200 million visitors a year or 100 million visitors a year, you want it more dispersed because you want all 200 million of those people imbuing Disney fandom into their core childhood memories.

Ben Gilbert

Yep. So parks is now almost 60% of the company's operating income, while ESPN and sports are down to 16%. So it's a total reversal from the situation 10 years ago.

David Rosenthal

Wow.

Ben Gilbert

And all that leads to February of this year, 2026, when Josh D'Amaro, the head of Disney Parks and Experiences, is announced as the next Disney CEO, effective 6 weeks later in March. Dana Walden, who came over from Fox, is named president, number 2, and chief creative officer of the company, a new role within the company. Bob Iger will stay on as a senior advisor and board member until his full retirement at the end of this year, in 2026.

David Rosenthal

Yep. So before we get to the business today, we should talk about the beginning and end of Bob Iger's tenure, just like we did with Michael Eisner. When Bob Iger came in on September 30, 2005, the market cap was about $50 billion, and the stock price had increased 5× by the time he left. So that second decade, like we talked about, was flat, but that first decade had 5× growth in it. Revenue tripled from $31 billion in 2005 to $94 billion 20 years later, and net income went from $2.5 billion to $12.4 billion. So, interestingly, net income outpaced revenue. They became 5 times more profitable while generating 3 times more revenue.

Ben Gilbert

Interesting, which is also the same thing that happened under Eisner.

David Rosenthal

Right. So it's been an exercise in, for 2 big CEO stretches, making the company more profitable.

Which probably says more about the company back in 1984…

Ben Gilbert

Yes.

David Rosenthal

…than it does over the last 40 years.

Ben Gilbert

Yes.

David Rosenthal

But yeah.

Ben Gilbert

I think that’s right. Okay, should we talk about the business today?

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

First, some stats on Disney+, since that is the strategic focus of the company today. 132 million people are Disney+ subscribers. A little under half of those are in the US and Canada. Hulu has 64 million subscribers, and ESPN+ has 24 million subscribers.

So here’s a crazy number. When they last reported this in 2024, Disney generated over $19 billion in subscription revenue, up from essentially $0 in 2017, when they launched any of these streaming services. That $19 billion of revenue, probably closer to $22 billion now—they’ve stopped reporting it individually—is around a quarter of the company’s revenue and its single largest source of revenue. We’ve been talking about Disney+ in this, “Oh, it’s low margin,” or, “Oh, it costs a lot of money to build it out,” but the revenue is huge. They have transitioned revenue from other places into Disney+ now.

David Rosenthal

And as of now, it is still subscale compared to Netflix. Netflix has 325 million subscribers around the world.

Ben Gilbert

That’s the last time they reported. It’s up since then.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

So it’s nearly triple Disney+.

David Rosenthal

Yep. And last year generated $45 billion in revenue. So, almost twice as much as Disney’s $25 billion in streaming revenue?

Ben Gilbert

Yeah, and that’s Hulu and Disney+ combined.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

How much operating income does Netflix generate?

David Rosenthal

$13.5 billion, compared to negative for Disney, right?

Ben Gilbert

No, Disney is now positive—

David Rosenthal

Oh, it’s positive. Okay, great.

Ben Gilbert

—on their direct-to-consumer segment. But for a long time, it was negative.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

So Netflix’s operating income on streaming—their entire business—is the same as Disney’s entire company operating income.

David Rosenthal

Yep. Yep.

Ben Gilbert

That is a completely new phenomenon. Just to go back in time, in 2017, Netflix’s operating income was under $1 billion.

David Rosenthal

Wow.

Ben Gilbert

Disney’s was $14 billion.

David Rosenthal

Right.

Ben Gilbert

Disney had that severe dip from COVID, parks closing, investing in Disney+, and massive losses from investing in Disney+. They’re almost back to where they were, whereas Netflix over that 8-year stretch has taken their operating income from sub-$1 billion to now equal to Disney.

David Rosenthal

Yep. And, look, streaming is a scale-economies business. The more scale you have, the more operating leverage you should have.

Ben Gilbert

Yep. So to put numbers on the investment into Disney+, cumulatively, there were about $13 billion in losses that Disney incurred in building it out in that segment. But David, they are now profitable. They generated about $1 billion last year. This is not, and probably never will be, as high-margin as owning cable channels, but it is definitely a righting of the ship versus how expensive it used to be to run Disney+, acquire and retain subscribers, and all that stuff.

David Rosenthal

Yep. And really, this is what Bob Iger spent the last couple of years since coming back from retirement doing.

Ben Gilbert

Moving over to the parks, like we had said earlier, there are 145 million people who visit the parks each year. They have 12 parks across 6 locations. They’re designing a new park in Abu Dhabi. They have 8 cruise ships, which will grow to 13, bringing on a new cruise ship almost every year for the next several years.

David Rosenthal

Yeah, cruises we didn’t talk about have been a big success for the company.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah, that was an Eisner thing.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

The thesis originally was that after you finish up at Disney World for 3 or 4 days, you may want to go hop on a cruise for 3 or 4 days. You’d sort of depart from Florida, go down to the Bahamas, and come back up. They were wrong that people would want to do those things at the same time, but—

David Rosenthal

That was clearly a strategy not devised by people who actually have young kids.

Ben Gilbert

But people love the cruises.

David Rosenthal

They’re awesome. I’ve done ’em. They’re great.

Ben Gilbert

This area is where the company is investing the most heavily. In 2023, they announced that they’re investing $60 billion of capital expenditures over the next decade into parks and cruises. A lot of that is probably going to build those cruise ships—one giant cruise ship a year. $30 billion of it will be used in domestic parks in Florida and Anaheim. So if you live in the US, get excited, because there are lots of new rides and lots of new lands that are opening.

The mental model I have around this is that they had a cash gusher in cable affiliate fees. It’s going away. They had a very profitable box office, especially in the golden era, where you could make and market a film like Avengers, the original one, for, I don’t know, $200–300 million, and then gross $1.5 billion at the box office.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

That seems to be over. ESPN affiliate fees are declining. Sports leagues are commanding more of the profits. People aren’t going to the movies like they used to, and these big IP movies are more expensive than ever. I saw a rumor go by that Avengers: Doomsday is going to cost $700 million between production and marketing.

David Rosenthal

Wow.

Ben Gilbert

That’ll come out this December. And of course, Disney, along with the whole world, has shifted to streaming, which has proved to not be as profitable a business as they had hoped. So where do you make your profits? Parks.

But theme parks unfortunately don’t really scale the way that cable profits did. There’s a constraint of physical room in the parks and rooms in hotels, so that’s why they turn to charging more per guest, since they really can’t cram more guests in. And what do you have to do to justify a trip to Disney World or a cruise costing thousands of dollars now?

David Rosenthal

You gotta build more stuff.

Ben Gilbert

You better invest $60 billion and make it worth it.

David Rosenthal

Yep. Yep.

Ben Gilbert

So that’s how you can kind of wrap your mind around this giant investment and the price increases in the parks.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

For the overall business, it’s $94 billion in revenue and $13 billion in net income. The segments are actually pretty interesting to look at. Entertainment is $42 billion. That’s movies and streaming content. Experiences is $36 billion, so somewhat comparable to entertainment. Sports is smaller at $18 billion.

But profits are where it gets interesting. In entertainment, operating income is $4.7 billion, but in experiences, operating income is $10 billion.

David Rosenthal

$10 billion, yeah.

Ben Gilbert

So despite comparable revenue between entertainment and experiences, the parks and the cruises are generating twice as much profit.

David Rosenthal

Yep, yep. And this is Disney+. In theory, it should not be the case that a media content product is a lower-margin product than a physical theme park product.

Ben Gilbert

Yes. Yes.

David Rosenthal

Except when you’re investing heavily into a streaming service.

Ben Gilbert

Yep. Almost 60% of the profits of the entire company come from parks and cruises.

David Rosenthal

This is why Josh is CEO.

Ben Gilbert

Right. Yes. And when I say the entire company, that includes the $3 billion a year of profits from ESPN, and it’s still 60% from parks and cruises.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

And my last observation: I could not believe this. I thought I was misinterpreting their annual report. Disney does report subsegments of its business. Their segment for theatrical distribution—that’s movies released in theaters—is $2.6 billion.

David Rosenthal

In revenue.

Ben Gilbert

That is 3% of their overall revenue.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

From the outside, we think about The Walt Disney Company as these movies and box office, and that is not the business. That’s 3% of the revenue of this company.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

It’s streaming’s world, and Disney is just living in it.

David Rosenthal

Yep. Well, I think that is probably the perfect tee-up to transition to analysis, and the main question here, which is: was Disney+ the right strategy? Could Disney actually viably have done anything different back in 2015, 2017, or 2019?

Ben Gilbert

Right. The only way to answer this question is to answer it with a real thing they could have done differently, because doing nothing was not actually an answer.

David Rosenthal

Right. Right.

Ben Gilbert

Enjoying the wonderful profits of the past was not an option.

David Rosenthal

Well, yeah. So just to start off, clearly what would’ve happened in the do-nothing category is what happened to every other major media company: consolidate, get acquired, or slim down significantly.

Ben Gilbert

Yep. It’s funny: the one thing that I did want was for them to slim down significantly. In my heart, I want Disney+ to be a boutique streaming service with just high-quality content on it, not to be messing around with Hulu, just to focus on the core franchises, and somehow also to discover a streaming business model that doesn’t require a content treadmill. That just treats these gems as the special gems that they are. I don’t think that’s a business, even though I like the product.

David Rosenthal

I know, I know. I so wanted this to be the answer too, all throughout our research over the past several months of making these episodes. As a consumer and as a parent, I want Disney+ just to be what it is to me, which is the very best parenting product ever invented in the history of humankind.

Ben Gilbert

And the laying around on Saturday and throwing on a Marvel movie thing.

David Rosenthal

Yeah, exactly. But I don't think it's realistic.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah.

David Rosenthal

And the reason I don't think it's realistic is people just don't go to the movie theater anymore.

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

The old Disney business model and content model was completely dependent on that. The way that you seeded new stories and characters and reinvigorated old stories and characters into the public consciousness was through the movie theater. People go once or twice a year for a huge event movie. They'll go for The Odyssey. They'll go for Toy Story 5.

Ben Gilbert

I'm going for The Odyssey on Saturday, and the reason I haven't gone before is because I've been prepping for this episode and I haven't had time.

David Rosenthal

Yeah, exactly.

Ben Gilbert

I literally went to Toy Story 5, and I'm going to The Odyssey, and I have no other plans to see movies. Oh, Dune 3 I'll go see.

David Rosenthal

Nice. Yeah, yeah, I'll go see that too. But they're probably not going to go see a film like Ratatouille.

Ben Gilbert

Oh, that's interesting.

David Rosenthal

Yep. They're not going to go see Encanto, and they're not going to go see Tangled.

Ben Gilbert

Mm.

David Rosenthal

And those franchises are so important to Disney. So the only way that Disney can make sure that the maximum number of people and the maximum number of generations get exposed to those franchises is to have a widely available streaming service.

Ben Gilbert

It's interesting. It's backed up by the numbers. If you look at the new Pixar films developed in the last 9 or 10 years, none of them have set new records.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

The only record setters and real smash hits are these sequels.

David Rosenthal

Yep. Toy Story 5 is going to be a banger, but again, five.

Ben Gilbert

I don't think Pixar's gotten any worse at doing the Pixar thing. I think these have been great films—the original ones that have come out—but they've only generated $200, $300, $400 million at the box office. It's that the bogey has moved. Product-market fit is an evolving thing, not just because the product is changing, but because the market is changing.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

So what is going to get Ratatouille in front of consumers? It's either the Netflix algorithm or the YouTube algorithm, or it's a first-party streaming service that Disney owns and can make sure that Soul or Turning Red or Elemental or Encanto gets in front of consumers.

Ben Gilbert

Even though you can't be that profitable by running said service.

David Rosenthal

Yep. But when you're making $10 billion out of the parks, and that's the IP that's feeding the parks, you damn sure need a way to make sure people see it.

Ben Gilbert

Yep. Could you have your cake and eat it too? Could you run a high-quality, skinny service that reaches, I don't know, 30 to 50 million people who really just want the straight drip of Disney, but also make hundreds of millions of dollars licensing that content elsewhere, just kind of spreading it around to make sure that when you have a big thing that you think is the equivalent of a box-office hit, you do release it on Netflix to their 350—

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

—ish million people.

David Rosenthal

That's the only other viable strategy that I could think of. Sounds like you ended up in the same—

Ben Gilbert

Yeah.

David Rosenthal

—spot.

Ben Gilbert

Disney+ also constrains your reach. It was quite bold to think that you could go and build a Netflix competitor 10 years after Netflix started, and just bet that the Disney IP was enough to sort of catch you up to them, and then also be as good as they are at going and getting filler content, even when you have the high-prestige Disney brand holding you back from smashing as much filler content in as you can. So the result is, you don't, and you end up with a subscale streaming platform. They do have Disney+. It does have 130 million people subscribed, but 130 is not 350.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

And so your content that you want to drive people to the parks and to merch is only reaching 40% of the people that it could if it were on Netflix, or whoever the biggest streaming service of the day would be. You'd be subservient to them in actually showing it to people, but you are hamstringing yourself by not giving your content the most reach that you possibly can. In the theatrical world, you'd come out with a Disney movie, it would go to every theater, and everyone would see it. You had reach. In the Disney+ world, Disney+ doesn't actually give you the reach that being on the biggest streaming services would give you.

David Rosenthal

Yep. I still think it probably doesn't work, and the reason is the algorithms. Netflix is not the movie theater.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah, but if your content is unbelievably compelling, it will rise to the top.

David Rosenthal

Sure, for people that Netflix knows will be interested in that content. Again, it's not like the movie theater.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah, but—

David Rosenthal

The movie theater, it rises to the top for everybody. People go to the movies.

Ben Gilbert

No, I disagree with that. In an alternate universe where the Disney-Netflix deal is still in place, whenever a new Disney movie would get released on Netflix, it would be a top-10 movie for sure, both organically and—

David Rosenthal

Mm.

Ben Gilbert

—if it's a good movie, then people are going to talk about it, and they're going to tell their friends, and it's going to get more popular and it's going to bubble up in the algorithms.

David Rosenthal

Yes, but even a top-10, top-5, top-3 movie on Netflix in a given month, what percentage of Netflix's subscriber base is watching it? I don't think it's a super-high percentage. It's a supermarket driven by an algorithm. It's not a movie theater with a curated, finite set of—

Ben Gilbert

I see.

David Rosenthal

—stalls that are showing a real—

Ben Gilbert

It's not power-law distributed enough that the big content each month gets 70% of people to watch it. You're saying any given piece of content tops out at, like, 10% of viewers or something like that.

David Rosenthal

You're competing with Seinfeld on Netflix. You go to the movie theater, you're competing with whatever else is out that week and the 7 other theaters in the megaplex.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah. Yeah, it's interesting.

David Rosenthal

All that to say, same as you, I went in wanting there to have been a different strategy, and I'm actually not sure I could come up with a better one.

Ben Gilbert

And any pontificating we could do lacks data, and Disney has all the data. If there were a better strategy, they're real smart. They probably would have come up with it.

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

And they have access to more information than we do.

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

The one thing that I don't think has become true is that Disney+ provides a deeper relationship with customers. It's not like there's any synergy with the parks. I mean, they finally unified my login, but it's not like my park experience is any different based on my Disney+ viewing habits. I'm not even sure I would want that.

David Rosenthal

Right.

Ben Gilbert

I can't think of any of the synergies that you would actually want. It sounds good in a pitch to say, “Oh, we have this direct and personal relationship,” but the biggest benefit I can tell is what we already talked about: that you actually can force content in front of my eyeballs this way.

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

But this general insight that I didn't have before starting the episode is that if you want to operate a streaming service that gets to scale—and if you're going to operate a streaming service, it has to get to scale, since the fixed costs are so high—then you must have a broad set of content. It's weird that it must be a broad set of content because you must appeal to lots of people, and therefore you need diverse content to appeal to all of them. Put another way, the winning streaming service will be the kitchen sink.

David Rosenthal

Yep. Yep, yep, and that's what Netflix is.

Ben Gilbert

And that's how bundles work. The winning thing in TV was the kitchen sink, the cable bundle.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

That's a kitchen sink. That's what Hulu is.

David Rosenthal

Yep. Again, I don't know that I actually could come up with a different, better strategy, but the world that Disney and all the traditional media companies entered starting in 2015 is just a fundamentally worse one for their content.

Ben Gilbert

To run content businesses, yes.

David Rosenthal

Yeah. And specifically for Disney, because they've got to increase their production output so much, and the whole brand promise of the company is founded on scarce content that's always great.

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

It's interesting: is it a worse world for content businesses when we actually live in the best world ever for consumers of content?

David Rosenthal

Hmm.

Ben Gilbert

Consumers have an immense amount of choice. You can choose from everything from someone influencing on their phone to high-quality cinema available both in the movie theater, in IMAX, and on your TV a mere 45 days after it comes out in the theaters.

David Rosenthal

Right, an immense amount of choice for a minuscule amount of money compared to the old world.

Ben Gilbert

Right. Right. It's the best deal ever for consumers.

David Rosenthal

Yeah, YouTube is free. Netflix is—

Ben Gilbert

All these services combined cost approximately the same price as a cable bundle.

David Rosenthal

Right. And compare that to going to the movie theater every weekend.

Ben Gilbert

The only case I can possibly make that we live in a worse environment is the overexploitation of IP franchises...

Sequelitis.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

But we live—

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

—in a pretty amazing content time.

David Rosenthal

Okay, so I think we should move this into bull and bear—bull case and bear case for Disney from here. Let's start with the bear case. The core of the Disney flywheel and the ESPN beautiful affiliate-fee business model are both compromised and perhaps permanently impaired.

Ben Gilbert

Yes.

David Rosenthal

That's the core of the bear case to me.

Ben Gilbert

Yes. Illustrated by this question: Has Disney produced a single new franchise in the last decade that has been a commercial success? Everything I can think of that did big dollars after 2016 at the box office—and I pick 2016 because that's—

David Rosenthal

Moana.

Ben Gilbert

—when Moana and Zootopia came out. Everything after that that was big box office for the company is harvesting existing IP.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

If you wanted to have a big concern, I think that's it. What's The Lion King of tomorrow, or the Toy Story of tomorrow, or the Avengers of tomorrow? Coco and Encanto are probably the best shots at it, maybe Elemental, but it's interesting because those did not have big box offices, and so you have to rely on streaming to tell you that it's big, and, number 2, to carry it.

David Rosenthal

And it's a case in point. As awesome as those movies are and those franchises are, and they're showing up in the parks, they're not Frozen. Frozen might have been the last megahit.

Ben Gilbert

It's fascinating. My other one is that the 3 acquisitions—Marvel, Pixar, and Lucasfilm—were brilliant, but in retrospect, it's looking like they provided amazing fuel for about 20 years, but not for 50 years.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

I mean, where does Star Wars go next? Is Marvel fully exploited now? The company has bet so big on these IP flywheels that every new thing in the park is tied to one of them. All the sequels are tied to them. And when you run out of sequels, I've got to tell you, I'm scared for Avengers: Doomsday. I saw the trailer, and I was like, “I remember when I used to be really, really excited about this.”

David Rosenthal

I know.

Ben Gilbert

And I just have a feeling in my stomach that I'm just not anymore.

David Rosenthal

I'm barely even aware that it's coming, which is even—

Ben Gilbert

Hmm.

David Rosenthal

—a worse place to be.

Ben Gilbert

Which says a little bit more about the cultural importance of theaters. Although, I bet you knew The Odyssey was coming.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

I bet you knew Dune 3 is coming.

David Rosenthal

Yep. So, okay, bull case. I will take the exact opposite side of what you just laid out in the long run. I think these franchises, whether it's core Disney, Pixar, Lucasfilm, or Marvel, are just like luxury brands. You cannot kill them. They will have up times and down times, but they will always come back because these are the core myths of our society, and they get handed down generation to generation. And when they are at their lowest point, that is the moment that they will turn around and surprise us in new ways.

Ben Gilbert

That's a great narrative. I have no way to push back. And to make your point, at some point here in the next couple of years, I can't wait to show my son Star Wars for the first time, and he's going to grow up watching Star Wars. Is he going to care that they made a crappy Obi-Wan show? No.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

He'll never see it.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

They—it's still the core myth of his time. In fact, didn't George Lucas do a Star Wars Holiday Special way back in the '70s?

David Rosenthal

Yes.

Ben Gilbert

And you know what? None of us have ever seen it, and it never affected any of the myth-making: that.

The Star Wars Holiday Special, yep. Well, I think it's actually the story of this whole episode, and it always comes back. It always comes back. These franchises, these studios, and these characters and stories are going to live forever.

David Rosenthal

Yep. All right, I've got a few reasons for optimism here.

Despite the fact that they intentionally accelerated the demise of their older profitable businesses, they're back to all-time highs on total profits now. They took those rebuilding years—5 or 6 years in the middle—and had a pandemic in the middle of it that shut down all their parks. But I think in 2026 it's looking like they'll set a brand-new net income record ever, based on the way it's trending.

Just 5 years ago, it was negative during COVID, and they really dug out of that hole after losing all this money in streaming. For all the headwinds that we described, they're going to continue to set new financial records. Now, it's not growing at the speed that you'd want for a business to justify a high multiple or a fast-growing stock price, but in many ways, Disney is a scale company that has accomplished its mission, so I don't know that I want it to be a 20% year-over-year grower. As a consumer, I quite like that it's a 3% or a 5% growth company.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah. I think this might even be a version of the same thing, too. The Disney parks are also a fundamental part of our culture that gets transferred from generation to generation, that parents take their kids, and it's just always going to be that way.

Ben Gilbert

Yep. The parks are amazing. No competitor has the brand affinity they have or the flywheel infrastructure they have. A lot of reason to be optimistic.

Ben Gilbert

All right, then I've got one more point to the bull case for Disney.

David Rosenthal

Are you going to pitch Josh tomorrow on doing an acquisition?

Ben Gilbert

Absolutely. But here's what it is. I think Disney still is just like it was when Bob took over. I think it's still the very best home for the best characters, stories, and IP franchises in the world when they need a home. And there are 2 extremely obvious ones to me out there right now. One is Bluey, which is the greatest children's show ever made, and is also much more than a children's show. It's already quasi-within Disney.

David Rosenthal

Right. It's got placement in the parks. It's got a deal with Disney+.

Ben Gilbert

Bluey is not Pixar. It's not at that scale, but it has so many echoes of Pixar right now. It's not really capable of continuing and standing alone on its own. Joe Brumm isn't going to make Bluey into a Disney competitor, but Disney can be the very best steward for all the future of Bluey, and Bluey has so much more running room ahead of it—

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

—in terms of what it can be.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

All right, so that's one.

David Rosenthal

There's one.

Ben Gilbert

And then the other one, the opposite end of the spectrum, is Nintendo. Man, Nintendo has fallen on hard times. Do you know what Nintendo's market cap is right now? 50 billion, but down 50% from last year.

David Rosenthal

Whoa.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah, I mean, you could pick up Nintendo for less than the cost of Fox now. I don't know that Nintendo would ever sell.

David Rosenthal

Japan would not let it.

Ben Gilbert

Japan.

David Rosenthal

There's no way.

Ben Gilbert

Japan. But look, they have this relationship with Universal now. I mean, it is a travesty, frankly, that Disney let Nintendo go to Universal. Nintendo is like Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm combined. They have some of the very best IP in the entire world. They've got 3 franchises that can stand toe-to-toe with anything at Disney: Mario, Zelda, and Pokémon. And then they've got a whole slew of other great stuff: Donkey Kong, Metroid, Kirby, Star Fox, and Animal Crossing. I mean, there are movies for decades to be made here, plus the video games.

And then there are the parks. I took my girls to Nintendo Land at Universal Studios in LA. It was amazing, and it's like 1/50th the size of Disney World. With the bigger Disney canvas, Nintendo physical experiences could be so much more.

David Rosenthal

Hmm.

Ben Gilbert

There you go. That's my pitch.

David Rosenthal

I like it. Seven Powers?

Ben Gilbert

Powers, yes.

David Rosenthal

All right, so listeners, this is the part of the episode where we use Hamilton Helmer's framework to discuss why a company gets to be more profitable than its nearest competitor, and there are 7 of them. Scale economies, network economies, counter-positioning, switching costs, branding, cornered resource, and process power. Man, how do we do this this time?

Ben Gilbert

I think we do it this time for the streaming era.

David Rosenthal

Disney+ versus streaming competitors?

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

So the pitch of Disney+ versus other vertical competitors, Peacock or Paramount+, is that it has higher-quality, durable franchise intellectual property that those other ones don't really have.

Ben Gilbert

Cornered resource.

David Rosenthal

And they have them forever, just like the vertical ones. Peacock has The Office forever, or Paramount+ has Star Trek forever. But Disney just has a lot more of those than the other vertical ones. The funny thing that I'm struggling with here is that it's not like they actually generate more profits than the real competitor, Netflix.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah. Well, I think it's really simple. It all just comes down to scale economies in the streaming business. This is why Netflix has—what did we say?—45 billion in revenue and 13.5 billion in operating income, and Disney's streaming business is half of that in revenue and barely profitable. That is the clearest illustration of scale economies that I can present to you.

David Rosenthal

Yeah. Hmm. So does the world end up where you have Netflix, which is the giant winner-take-all scale-economies player in paid streaming, then you have YouTube, which is the giant winner-take-all one in ad-supported, free, creator-led content instead of professionally created content, and Disney can stay subscale because it's subsidized by the profits from their other businesses, so it doesn't need to be as competitive on a like-for-like basis with Netflix?

Ben Gilbert

I think Disney's best bet here is to be a clear number 2.

And they probably should lean into that, ’cause if you’re trying to be number 1, then you’re gonna chase the content kitchen sink all the way there.

David Rosenthal

Yep. They need enough of a content kitchen sink to be superior to Peacock, et cetera. But frankly, they’re already there. They can dial back content production a lot and let the flywheel heal itself a little bit.

Ben Gilbert

Right.

David Rosenthal

And still be just fine.

Ben Gilbert

Agree.

Keep Hulu Hulu.

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

Hulu and Disney+ keep getting closer and closer together the more they bundle it and put the content in each other’s apps.

David Rosenthal

Are you starting a “Make Hulu Great Again” campaign here?

Ben Gilbert

I’m starting a spinco of Hulu and Fox assets campaign here. That’s what I’m doing. Keep Avatar in Disney, but everything else has to go.

All right, quintessence. Listeners, this is our exercise to wind down the episode, bring it home, and talk about the one big idea that stuck with us.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

My quintessence is that the environment changed.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

Disney used to operate in an unbelievably easy environment. The cable bundle allowed ESPN to generate huge profits basically on autopilot. Partially because of ESPN, all the other TV channels that Disney offered were also super profitable. Customers used to go to the movies super often, and Disney had some of the most profitable and successful movies. Then, to put this on steroids, they could make money at the box office and sell the movies after that and make giant profits again.

You had everything going for you.

David Rosenthal

That was peak traditional media.

Ben Gilbert

Then the modern environment is the exact opposite. The cable bundle’s getting destroyed. Disney could no longer realize those profits. People stopped going to movie theaters, so box office gross dries up. Streaming turns out to be expensive to build, expensive to maintain, expensive to acquire customers, and harder to create events around. People don’t rally around them like they did around movie theaters.

It’s expensive to retain customers, it’s far less profitable, and it’s not a replacement for the theatrical revenue. Ultimately, because of all this, there’s just not as much cushy surplus everywhere, and you have to make a lot of really shrewd business decisions if you wanna keep generating the same or more profits each year.

So where does this leave us? Disney’s gonna be fine and, if managed very carefully, thrive. They’re still gonna produce beloved characters and stories we all love, but the prosperity from the late ’90s and the 2005–2019 era was a complete anomaly due to how good all the structural forces around the business were. It’s just brutal that, as a company, they will forever be compared against those eras.

David Rosenthal

Yep. And frankly, the management team in that era just knocked it out of the park in terms of seizing those opportunities and innovating. All the stuff they added: home video, Broadway, the stores in the malls, the parks, and transforming Walt Disney World into a resort.

Ben Gilbert

You know what it is? You could make money in media then.

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

Ben Gilbert

You had to do clever stuff, but there was money to be made.

David Rosenthal

There was room for creativity to thrive.

Ben Gilbert

There’s much less of that now.

David Rosenthal

Totally agree.

Ben Gilbert

Absent a completely different business model, like being MrBeast, there’s a whole other universe where you can create very successful media business models now, but it’s so far from Disney’s universe that you can’t even see a path to it.

David Rosenthal

Yep. And that leads right into my quintessence. I guess I’m ever the optimist on this front. Disney is the home of generational myths, and you’ll never kill it. It’s what I said in my bull case.

Ben Gilbert

Unkillable.

David Rosenthal

It’ll have its ups and downs, and maybe we’ll never see another era like the ’90s, and that was truly peak Disney from a business and creativity standpoint.

Ben Gilbert

And the early 2010s.

David Rosenthal

And the early 2010s, too. Yep, absolutely. But this is sort of my point. It goes in 20-year cycles, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s back on top of the world in another 10 years.

Ben Gilbert

Love it. Carve-outs?

David Rosenthal

Carve-outs. Let’s do it.

Ben Gilbert

This is the part where we talk about products that we have been loving that have nothing to do with this episode, but we wanna share with you, listeners. I have a Warby Parker one to share with everyone.

David Rosenthal

Ooh, fun.

Ben Gilbert

I have been wearing glasses more recently, and in the summer months, it’s nightmarish to carry 2 pairs of glasses with you. So what’s the answer? Transition lenses. But transition lenses just look so derpy. Classically, transition lenses are a treatment on regular glasses, and when you’re wearing regular glasses and they’re tinted, it just looks really bad.

Warby Parker has a product called their Transitions XTRActive, which are dark outdoors. They even transition in the car, and I got them in brown, and I think this is the key unlock. They don’t look as dorky when the tint is brown as when the tint is just regular gray. And if you get them in a frame that can play as both—

David Rosenthal

Indoor and outdoor.

Ben Gilbert

Then it can work. So for the first time in my life, I’ve been wearing a form of transition lenses that I like. Brown XTRActive from Warby Parker.

David Rosenthal

Nice. Nice.

Ben Gilbert

This is my fifth sunglasses carve-out. My carve-outs will exclusively be forms of eyewear.

David Rosenthal

We should start an Acquired retail—

Ben Gilbert

Yes.

David Rosenthal

—sunglasses.

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

All right. Moving on. I have 3 carve-outs. So my first one that I was sure you were gonna take is Michael Arndt’s Toy Story 3 lecture on YouTube.

Ben Gilbert

Oh my God, it’s so good.

David Rosenthal

Michael was the screenwriter for Toy Story 3 and shared this lecture on YouTube about how story works at Pixar. It was part of our research for this episode. So many people told us about it.

Ben Gilbert

And not only did he share a talk, he got permission to share a bunch of the early story reels, so you get to see the rough drafts of what the story was before the brain trust weighed in and made it better.

David Rosenthal

Yeah. It’s so good, well worth it. It’s about an hour and 20 minutes of your time. If you care at all about story or even just understanding what goes into making the magic of a Pixar movie—

Ben Gilbert

Yep.

David Rosenthal

—go check it out.

Then I have a carve-out request also related to the episode. We were in New York recently for the event that we did with Sierra, and I brought the family. My older daughter was super excited to go to the Nintendo Store in Rockefeller Center in New York because she thought that, at the New York flagship, they might have Princess Peach costumes. They did not have Princess Peach costumes.

As far as I can tell, Nintendo does not make first-party Princess Peach costumes. This is why Disney needs to acquire Nintendo, because the fruit is just hanging off the trees.

Ben Gilbert

Ugh.

David Rosenthal

I don’t care if it’s Disney or Nintendo or Universal or whoever. Just make some Princess Peach costumes for my almost-five-year-old.

Ben Gilbert

Josh, David wants to come in and do strat planning with you, so bring him in.

David Rosenthal

Yeah.

My last carve-out is the Golden State Valkyries, the WNBA franchise here in San Francisco. We’ve gotten to know Jess Smith, the president of the Valkyries. We’ve done a few events with her.

Ben Gilbert

Yeah, she’s so great. Actually, at the Sentry event that we did last year.

David Rosenthal

Yes. What she and the whole Valkyries organization and the Warriors organization—which is the same ownership group—have done with the Valkyries is nothing short of incredible. It’s the second year of the franchise. It is the most successful women’s sports franchise in the entire world. It’s worth over $1 billion now.

We went for the first time to experience it. I’ve never been to anything like it. It was one of the best sporting events I’ve ever been to, period. My little girls were so into it. It’s like magic.

Ben Gilbert

Hmm.

David Rosenthal

They were standing up, cheering, applauding, yelling. The arena was sold out. They’ve sold out every single game they’ve ever played. It’s really awesome.

Ben Gilbert

Hmm.

David Rosenthal

If you’re in San Francisco, go to a game.

Ben Gilbert

All right, I’ll have to come down.

David Rosenthal

Yep. I've got a long list of folks to thank for all their time and conversations helping us prepare for this episode. First, to Nancy Lee, Bob Iger, Josh D'Amaro, Pete Docter, Jim Morris, and all the incredible folks who hosted us for the day at Pixar, including Danielle Feinberg, Katherine Sarafian, and the incredible people who run the Pixar archives. That was

Ben Gilbert

So helpful.

David Rosenthal

An experience like none other. To Kristen Bell, the voice of Anna in Frozen, who helped us think about Disney Animation and Pixar; to our friends Ravi Nandan at A24, Chase Carey at Liberty Media and Fox, and Mitch Lasky at Benchmark; to Robbie Whelan at The Wall Street Journal, who has a book on Disney coming out later this year; and also to Ben Fritz and Emily Nelson at The Wall Street Journal. I know you have a list, too.

Ben Gilbert

To Ed Catmull, who needs no introduction; to Jeffrey Katzenberg, same thing; to Bill Block, who formerly led Miramax; and to Ben Thompson for his exceptional analysis of Disney over the last decade that inspired a lot of my thinking. I think I read every Stratechery piece on the company to prepare for this. And lastly, to our friend Sean Bailey, former executive at Disney who led one of the studios there and has helped us with a bunch of episodes, but obviously this one was particularly close to home. So thank you so much, Sean.

David Rosenthal

Yep.

Ben Gilbert

If you liked this episode, go check out Disney Part One on Walt's life. Some other episodes you may like, the NFL, Coca-Cola, Vanguard, or if you're willing to dive very deep into the Acquired back catalog, we've got Pixar, Marvel, Lucasfilm, ESPN, BamTech, a Disney+ episode from 2019. I may be forgetting some, but there's plenty of Disney sprinkled around in the back catalog.

You can click the link in the show notes to get access to the companion PDF with visuals, charts, tables, and key illustrations from this episode. You can join the email list at acquired.fm/email to get access to all the photos that we talked about and to learn a hint at what next episode will be. That's acquired.fm/email. Join the Slack at acquired.fm/slack. And with that, listeners, we'll see you next time.

David Rosenthal

We'll see you next time.

Disney:文艺复兴与帝国 — 文字稿与摘要 | BidClub