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Invest Like the Best · · 48 分钟

Dinakar Singh——父亲的行动号召——[Invest Like the Best,第428期]

Patrick O'ShaughnessyDinakar Singh

播客
TL;DR
  • Singh 创办 TPG Axon,部分原因是女儿的 SMA 让投资业绩变成了一场争夺科研资金的竞赛。 女儿于2001年18个月大时确诊,医生预计她只能活到十几岁中期,这让等待2年或5年都变得不可接受:「我的主业,其实是为了给副业买单。」他估计,这个家庭最终投入了约1.5亿美元。

  • SMA 提供了一个极不对称的药物开发条件:可以修复的缺陷备用基因、可用的小鼠和细胞模型,以及极宽的治疗窗口。 应对方式是投资组合逻辑——同时资助所有可信路径,因为「我们需要并行处理,不能串行处理」;同时为各方支付共用测试费用,并让贡献者保留知识产权。

  • 3条「射门机会」最终都成为获批药物:Ionis/Biogen 的反义寡核苷酸项目、被 Novartis 以80亿美元收购的 AveXis 基因疗法,以及他女儿如今每天服用的 PTC/Roche 小分子药物。 Singh 称之为「不可思议的运气」,但结果建立在系统性去风险之上。一次早期路演用每位患者每年5,000–15,000美元的价格假设,证明罕见病药物也能创造数亿美元利润;他后来估算,SMA 药物市场规模达到高个位数十亿美元,SMA 药物已跻身 Roche、Novartis 和 Biogen 各自最畅销的前3种药物之列。

  • 速度来自对完整开发路径的工程化,而不只是发现一个分子。 Singh 的团队动员50位诺贝尔奖得主签署公开信,制造政治动能,并资助自然病程研究,让 FDA 不必要求濒死儿童进入安慰剂组;他称,第一款 SMA 药物或许是 FDA 历史上获批最快的药物。「孩子们正在死去。我们承担不起安慰剂试验。」

  • 治疗时点带来了截然不同的结果:女儿12岁开始治疗后病情稳定,而一名从出生起就在确诊后接受治疗的孩子「永远不会出现症状」。 稳定并不能恢复已经失去的肌肉或神经,因此第二阶段要做的是再生:一个候选项目已经进入临床,Singh 预计未来几年会有3或4个项目可能惠及 SMA 患者以及更广泛的肌肉流失人群。

  • 罕见病如今已经具备商业可读性,但其资本链条在公司成立前和药物获批后仍同时失灵。 Singh 希望由中立的转化医学团队把定制化想法推进到「中场」,因为无论拨款机构还是知识产权所有者,都不会奖励排除失败或开展协作;另一端,100万–200万美元的年治疗费用和跨境规则,可能让一个家庭即便筹到40万美元,孩子仍然无法接受治疗。「我们开发出这些药,却有孩子因为付不起钱而死去,这个现状相当荒谬。」

摘要 · 为研究而整理的核心内容

1. 终点倒计时,让投资成败变成科研资金

  • Singh 的倒计时始于2001年末:他从香港回国、出任 Goldman 团队全球负责人1个月后,9/11发生;又过了1个月,他18个月大的女儿被确诊,而他正从办公室眺望世贸中心废墟。一名神经科医生用约60秒解释病情,结论是肌无力会进行性恶化,女儿很可能活不到十几岁中期。

  • 科学上的突破口很窄,却真实存在。SMA 患者缺少一种制造蛋白质的基因,Singh 把这种蛋白比作「肌肉和神经的肥料」;但每个人都携带一个有缺陷的备用基因,拷贝数量决定了患者是几周内死亡,还是能活过10–15年。修复或放大这个备用基因,看起来比替换一个完全不存在的东西容易。

  • 开发也具备有利的实验条件:研究人员可以培育 SMA 小鼠并建立细胞模型,而自然变异表明,这种蛋白的治疗窗口异常宽。Singh 用水来解释问题——几乎任何东西在足够高的剂量下都会有毒,但对这种蛋白而言,「很明显,几乎不可能太多」。

  • 希望让等待在道德上无法接受:「第二糟糕的事……是看着自己的孩子受苦并死去。最糟糕的事……是后来发现,其实你本可以做些什么。」离开 Goldman 创办 TPG Axon 后,他赚到的每一美元都能立即投入这项事业;Singh 估计,他们最终投入了约1.5亿美元自有资金,而他的父亲则打趣说,他染上了「世界上最昂贵的吸毒习惯」。

2. 并行推进,换来3次获批机会

  • 当时罕见病几乎没有商业支持者,一个创新型 NIH 转化拨款项目选中了 SMA,却在领导层更迭后停滞——「当你面对的是代理负责人,就意味着没人真正行动。」Singh 将其诊断为「延迟偏见」:陌生疾病吸引不到足够的研究人员、申请者和合格评审人,整个周期被拉长,超过了女儿可能拥有的生命长度。

  • 家庭没有按学术项目逐个串行资助,而是搭建了一家虚拟药企:聘请科学家,召集约18名顶尖开发顾问在周末集中工作,找出所有缺失实验,再付钱让实验室或公司执行。「如果有5个有意思的想法,那就同时做5个。」学术界很重要,但永远不会把药开发出来;结果可能成功,也可能失败。

  • 他们建立了多个小鼠和细胞模型,向公司免费提供测试,同时允许公司保留全部知识产权。找到愿意接手的公司仍花了数年;最终,Novartis 找到一个被遗弃的1970年代厌食症候选药物,效果看起来「好得离谱」,但更广泛的筛选显示,现有 FDA 批准药物在不产生毒性的前提下都不够有效。这个平台也迅速学会了哪些方向不值得继续推进。

  • 这个投资组合覆盖3种药物形式:Cold Spring Harbor 的一名科学家开发的反义寡核苷酸项目经 Ionis 推进,并与 Biogen 合作;PTC 找到了 Roche 推进的小分子;AveXis 开发基因疗法,随后被 Novartis 以80亿美元收购。3个项目最终全部获批——「不可思议的运气」。一名高管曾嘲笑 Singh 每位患者每年5,000–15,000美元的定价模型;按 Singh 回忆,Biogen 第一款药物的年费约为73万美元,而他估计如今的市场规模达到高个位数十亿美元。

3. 证据与联盟,让监管时钟加速

  • 为制造制度动能,Singh 争取 NIH、FDA、参议员和众议员的支持;拿到50位顶尖科学家、其中包括诺贝尔奖得主签署的公开信;还在华盛顿的政治报纸上刊登整版彩色广告。他的说服逻辑不是博取同情——一个「脸上挂着泪的家长」很难获得真正的推动力——而是强调 SMA 确实有成功机会,因此这是一个可以解决的问题。

  • 关键的监管设计,是一项有资金支持的自然病程研究:在药物开发期间,研究人员持续记录患者护理情况,建立疾病自然进展档案。FDA 同意将这些记录作为对照,从而避免开展一项盲法安慰剂试验,不让一半儿童在试验中病情恶化甚至死亡。这项安排「挽救了很多生命,也节省了很多钱」,让临床试验能够以「每小时90英里」的速度推进。

  • Singh 表示,在坚持和人脉网络的帮助下,第一款 SMA 药物当时是、也可能至今仍是 FDA 历史上获批最快的药物。他的女儿12岁开始接受第一种疗法,此后病情一直稳定;如今她使用 Roche 的每日用药。当 Patrick 问到一名确诊后即接受治疗的新生儿时,Singh 给出了明确答案:这个孩子「永远不会出现症状」。

4. 堵住漏洞,让肌肉再生变得可测量

  • 药物的快速推进无法逆转已经积累的损伤,因此这个家庭先努力守住基线:每天进行物理治疗、控制饮食,并在公寓楼里建造温水治疗池。在接受治疗前,女儿仍经历了脊柱融合手术、髋部问题、10–11岁前后每年一次的大型手术,以及每年约3次因重症肺炎住院。「一旦它坏掉,你不能简单地把它重新拼起来。」

  • Singh 用船来比喻第二阶段的投资逻辑:船底还在漏水时,舀水没有意义;修好漏洞后,排出积水才会有效。SMA 专属药物解决的是约2万名儿童的底层病因;他的项目如今瞄准肌肉再生——这比神经再生更容易——以及增强存活神经,潜在适用范围可扩展到肌营养不良和 SMA 之外的其他肌无力疾病。

  • 肌肉领域的发展程度出人意料地低迷——Singh 估计,全国真正理解肌肉的人可能只有6个——原因在于临床试验的受试者要么患有尚无解法的退行性疾病,要么是功能衰退的老年人,持续恶化的噪音会掩盖中等程度的疗效。治疗后的 SMA 改变了实验条件:漏洞已经修好,增量效果就可以被测量。一个项目已经进入临床,尽管「不是最好的那个」,预计还会有3或4个项目推进。

5. 社群把悲伤与愤怒转化为持续行动

  • 结果是稳定,而不是刀枪不入。但他的女儿仍然成了「全家的摇滚明星」:成绩全 A、以 summa cum laude 成绩从 Yale 毕业,获得 Singh 提到的11项奖项中的3项,担任毕业生代表演讲,如今是 Cornell 的博士生,并且已经结婚。Singh 仍在推进再生研究,因为女儿依然脆弱,而衰老可能把脆弱转化为新的风险。

  • 她的人生轨迹也加深了 Singh 对制度误判残障的批评。尽管纽约的建筑无障碍条件不错,Singh 也拥有董事会层面的关系,多所顶尖私立学校仍拒绝录取她;一所学校称她不够聪明,另一所要求查看医疗记录并与医生交谈,Singh 认为这属于违法行为。All Souls 起初建议她去一所脑瘫学校——疾病完全不对——后来还是录取了她,而她在那里表现出色。

  • 在一次幼儿园礼拜演讲中,Singh 提到3种适应方式:从社群借来力量;不要只为想象中的人生哀悼,要认识到不同来源的幸福并不会因此降低其强度;把愤怒和悲伤转化为有用的工作。「人生没有重来,没有撤回,也没有上诉。你要么在拥有的人生中找到快乐,要么过一种没有快乐的人生。」

  • 金融与科学最终组成了一个家庭圈:他的母亲曾在 Columbia 任教,而 Columbia 是这项研究的领先中心;他的父亲曾在 Roche 工作;Roche 的奖学金还资助了 Singh 的大学教育。但当被问到善意时,他给出的答案比机构或资本都更微小:确诊后,拥抱为他提供了借来的「力量和能量」,让他重新站起来、继续前行。

6. 罕见病资本既需要桥梁,也需要价格约束

  • 如今,Singh 每隔几周就会接到家长来电,他们想要的是能产生影响的行动,而不是「像往沙子上泼水一样」的捐款。在 Jackson Laboratory,他正在建设一家罕见病研究所;他的 SMA 项目曾帮助该机构将小鼠模型研究免费开放。这个研究所要成为罕见病领域的「捉鬼敢死队」:家庭打来电话,科学家评估哪些事能做、哪些不能做,由一个专家智库提供行动方案,但不要求研究必须留在研究所内部。

  • 罕见病利润变得清晰后,商业兴趣有所改善,但定制化项目仍需在生物科技资本介入前完成去风险:「你现在不必再把它推进到10码线,但仍然要推进到中场。」企业优化自己的知识产权,学术界优化拨款,而拨款机制不会奖励并行筛选,也不会奖励证明一个想法失败。适度的转化资本可以填补这段早期缺口。

  • 负责协调的机构还必须成为「瑞士」。学者不愿协作,公司严守知识产权,大学越来越追求版税;一个类似 NIH 的中立团队或非营利机构,可以选择几种疾病,协调实验,并充当诚实的中间人。Singh 并不是说政府整体失败——最初的 NIH 构想「相当不错」——而是说,机构可以更聪明地组织规模小、目标实际的发现项目。

  • 成功制造了另一种失败:可及性。Singh 称每年100万–200万美元的价格「离谱」;按第一款药物80万美元的成本计算,像 Columbia 这样的大型中心仅为备货就需要数千万美元的营运资金。在 Uzbekistan,一个家庭通过社区募款筹到40万美元,却找不到愿意接收这笔钱的人,也没有可行的治疗路径。他希望当初的资金安排能附带价格上限,并建议将暴利留出一部分用于慈善救助。

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

My guest today is Dinakar Singh. Dinakar is the founder and CEO of Axon, the family office successor to TPG Axon, which was a successful global long-short hedge fund. We wanted to share his story on Father's Day to honor the person and the dad that Dinakar is. He shares one of the most extraordinary stories at the intersection of finance and medicine that I've ever encountered.

This conversation explores the highest-stakes investment themes: timing, concentrated conviction, exceptional team building, and deploying resources toward outcomes that matter most. I want to let him tell the story of the remarkable journey he's been on to cure a disease called SMA that so deeply affected his family. So, Dinakar, I'm so excited to tell your entire story. It's one of the most unique, moving, and incredible stories I've encountered in investing, and I guess in life more generally. I was thinking about how to ask about it to kick us off, and maybe the appropriate way is just to ask you why you named your firm TPG Axon.

1. Saving Nora Became The Mission

Dinakar Singh

The axon is the nerve that connects your brain to your muscle, and it happens to be the core part of what degenerates in spinal muscular atrophy, which is the disease my daughter was diagnosed with. From my perspective, an important factor in starting the firm and leaving Goldman at that time was that, on one hand, while I loved investing, I also resolved that there was a glimmer of hope to save my daughter and other kids who had her condition, but that glimmer of hope was not going to last very long, and time was not our friend.

I needed to go as quickly as possible to drive success as quickly as possible, obviously for its own sake, but more importantly, so that I could throw a variable fortune into the research we needed to do to make sure we did it as fast as possible, in time to save her. She was diagnosed in 2001. I'd just come back from Hong Kong literally a month or 2 months before. I'd become global head of the group while there. I was in Hong Kong for 4 years, setting up the Asian business and becoming global head at that time.

I came back, and we were on top of the world. Our group was extraordinarily profitable, even during difficult years for the firm. I came back, and a month later, 9/11 happened. A month later, our daughter was diagnosed with SMA, spinal muscular atrophy. She was a year and a half at that time.

We'd been shifting back and forth between Hong Kong and New York. It was our first child, and it's ironic because you actually don't know what is normal in terms of development. We thought she was developing normally, but we were at a party, and one of our friends' mothers was a very good pediatrician. She said, “Look, you want to go and have her checked out. Just go have her checked out.” That started the saga of getting test after test after test.

Eventually, literally a month after 9/11, I was sitting in my office watching the smoldering ruin of the World Trade Center, which was right in front of my window, and I got this call from the doctor basically saying that she had SMA. For a bunch of reasons, it was a shock. Technically, he called my wife. It was a 30-second call: “Sorry, she has SMA. Gotta go.” Then he hung up.

She called me in tears. We called him back, and it was maybe 60 seconds this time, but at that time, no one knew much about this disease. The gene for it had just been discovered a few years before. Until then, people thought it was just a variant of muscular dystrophy or some other muscle disease. So, in SMA, you're missing a key gene that makes a key protein.

That protein is like a fertilizer for muscles and nerves. Like fertilizer with plants, without it, they wither and die. All of us have a backup gene because it's such a critical protein. Your body has hundreds of them, you see. Some people have 1, some people have 2 or 3. That backup gene doesn't work very well. It makes a protein that falls apart because it's got a defect in it, but it has some.

Depending on how many backup genes you have and how little or how much protein you have, you might die within a few weeks, or you might die within 10 or 15 years. Our daughter was in the middle, and so the diagnosis at the time was that she'd probably live to be in her mid-teens or so, but getting weaker and suffering along the way. My parents had been scientists, as it happened, probably a source of my strange thinking in life. After school in India, I'd go hang out in their lab and do mouse dissections when I was 6 years old. It's a typical after-school activity.

I grew up in the science world and had enough scientific knowledge to be dangerous. As you stare at this, it seems super intriguing to me. In the first few months, it was just devastation. When you're told there's no treatment, there's no cure, and it's just a question of when and with how much pain, you're mentally clobbered.

We first started giving some money to some groups, and as I started digging into the research, it became clear that there wasn't as much known about this as one would think, given the gene we had just found. For example, why did that neurologist diagnose her and hang up in 60 seconds? Obviously, because he didn't know anything about this. When he went to medical school, there was no spinal muscular atrophy because no one knew that it was a separate disease, let alone one that actually affected 20,000 kids.

Technically, at that time, it was the most common genetic killer of kids, which is a pretty incredible thing when you think about it. Intrigue started setting in. At first, my wife and I started giving money to some causes. There were a few groups that were involved, and so we gave a bit of money. As we dug in more, we started talking to scientist friends at Columbia, et cetera, and became more intrigued by the possibility because some really good work had been done.

In your body, if you're missing a gene and it's completely gone, replacing it—true gene therapy—is still really, really hard to do. On the other hand, here you had this backup gene that was defective, but having a backup copy in place that you could try to crank up and fix to make a bit better is a much easier challenge than having to replace something that simply went missing in the first place. That struck me as being pretty interesting from a drug-development perspective as well.

There was some work being done. You could create mice that had SMA, which is also a pretty big, powerful feat. You had an intriguing thing to tackle. You had some tools that were pretty nifty in these cell models and mouse models, so you could test things in them to see whether they had an impact or not.

This is getting a little nitty-gritty, but for a lot of drugs, one of the biggest problems is what they call the therapeutic window. With almost anything in your body, too much or too little is pretty bad for you. I joke with people: take water as an example. Water has a very wide therapeutic window, but if you drink enough of it, you'll actually get kidney damage and die.

Most other things are much, much narrower, and so there are many drugs that might work, but we just don't know exactly what the precise amount is and where to get it. As a result, they end up having toxicity problems or undershooting, et cetera. With SMA, the difference between some of these kids with multiple copies versus not, someone who is a carrier versus having a disease, or someone like you, presumably, who doesn't have it at all, represents such a massive, wide range of this protein in the body that it's pretty clear that you almost can't have too much.

There's no real worry about that. That really was a pretty intriguing thing for developing a drug as well. Again, not to get too much in the weeds, but as I read into these things, it really seemed like there was at least something to be tried here. As it happened, there was an interesting coincidence: the NIH had, for the first time ever, begun to focus on rare disease. The world is very different today, but rare disease was not something people focused on back then.

No one cared. There had really only ever been 1 rare-disease drug, and companies were focused on big things at that time: statins, diabetes drugs, and oncology.

No one wanted to work on or look at rare disease. NIH was also funding all these big diseases, but they came up with a novel program at that time to have the first-ever grants awarded for translational research. They picked SMA because it was this cool, nifty, new disease and said, “We think this is the best target. We’d like to have a small program where we can provide some grants to work not just on basic science, but on actual drug discovery.” Again, today this seems completely obvious. Back then, that was a really novel thing.

Unfortunately, there were a bunch of changes. The head of NIH stepped down, and the head of NINDS, the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, stepped down, so you had acting directors in both places. I would joke to people that when you have acting directors, that means there is no action on stuff. Nothing was really happening.

There was pitiful grant money from NIH for this disease, even though other diseases of similar size and with a lot less potential probability of success were getting tons of funding. There is just a latency bias in things. If you think about this, if you’re a student in medical school and a disease is well known, you might want to focus on it afterward, so you do more research. If it’s a disease no one’s ever heard of until recently, there aren’t many people working on it, so there aren’t many people applying for grants. When you apply for grants, there aren’t many people who understand it well enough to know whether it’s a good grant or not. There’s a lot of stuff that just takes a long time for the cycle to work.

2. Parallel Processing Beats Delay

As we stared at this and said, “Look, there’s a chance here, but we might be waiting a couple of decades or so for this to work. By that time, she’s going to be gone,” it occurred to me—and I tell people this now—that the second-worst thing that can happen to a parent is to see their child suffer and die. The single worst thing, though, is to see your child suffer and die, only to find out that you could have done something about it, but it wasn’t done in time.

Once we got the idea in our head that there was a glimmer of hope here, it really almost deranges you, if you will, because then any second you’re spending doing anything that isn’t max speed is a wasted moment. That led to, “We’re going to take a shot at this. I’m not going to take a shot only to find out we went slowly. This has to be max turbo. Pull out all the stops. Let’s go for it.”

Part of that was money. It struck me that all these things take time. You could fund some scientists, get some basic research, and then go to the next one, to the next one, to the next one, and that will eventually work, but it’ll take forever. It struck me that we needed to do things in parallel processing, not serial processing. If there are 5 interesting ideas, let’s do all 5 at the same time and see which ones work, not do 1 at a time and go A, B, C, D, E, F, G.

Basically, what we drew up was a pretty aggressive vision. Early on, it was giving money to people like Columbia, et cetera, and we did. We set up Motor Neuron Institute there with someone who wanted to fund ALS as well, and they’re quite similar diseases in terms of some of the impact.

It occurred to us that academia, while very important, was never going to develop a drug, and so we really had to create a virtual company. The thought then was to hire some scientists, get some amazing advisors together to really help be our brain trust, and then sit down every so often with everyone and say, “What do we need to do to move this ball down the field?” Then go and do it, whether we pay someone at a company, give a grant, or whatever. Give money, get it done, move on every front at the same time, and then keep coming back and saying, “Okay, what did we learn? What didn’t we learn? Let’s go on to the next thing.”

Now, all that takes a lot of money. My father would joke that, for this straight-arrow kid, I developed the world’s most expensive drug habit. I was a partner at Goldman, and, look, at some point I would have left anyway. In reality, at some point, if you love investing, you want to do it in its own pure form. But it certainly occurred to me at that point that, given all this, it was time to get going—1, because of course I’m passionate about investing and I wanted to build a great firm, but 2, because the value of doing that right now, and the dollars that could come from it right now, could save my daughter in a way that if I waited 5 years, 3 years, or 2 years, it wouldn’t.

The Axon name, going back to the long answer to the very short question, was really just there to remind me of what the mission was. It was always amusing because people would wonder, and I’d explain, “Well, you know, the axon is the thing that connects muscles, nerves, and the brain, so it’s connecting thought to action.” They thought that was a cool analogy from a general perspective.

Every now and then, you’d get a scientist or a former company guy who’d come in, see our logo—which is actually the shape of an axon—and get the fact that this was actually about medical research and stuff, which was always kind of cute. It’s a bit of an Easter egg that we sort of hid in there.

But, look, that was what we did. Functionally, my day job was really there to pay for my night job, if you will. We got teams together. TPG was my partner in starting up Axon. They were remarkably helpful. Through my relationships and through some of their network, we were able to connect with some of the absolute rock stars in drug development—people who were not just smart scientists, but actually biotech guys who really understood this stuff.

For all of them, I think what was extraordinary was how much of their time and energy they were willing to commit. Obviously, we weren’t paying anyone, but we would get a dozen and a half of the smartest drug-development people in the entire world coming together for a couple of weekends a year, taking time away from their families and their work, and sitting with us and brainstorming about our plan of action.

Part of it was because, as crazy as it sounds, there had not been a single meaningful drug for a neurological disease developed in decades. Crazy, right? The idea that there was a chance to do something here was really cool because neurology was kind of a graveyard. I think everyone seemed to have this sense of excitement that, okay, there was actually an interesting plan here. Maybe it would work, maybe it wouldn’t, but there was someone willing to write the check and fund this, so it wasn’t about begging for money. I think people were excited by the idea of joining in to figure out whether we could actually solve the disease.

3. The Drug Hunt Begins

One of the first stops was that there were some scientists who had done some work suggesting that some existing drugs could actually modify the disease in mice and things like that. We basically created all these mouse models and cell models of different types to test different versions. Each had pros and cons, and we set up facilities to essentially give them away for free.

What we said to everyone around the world was, “Guys, send in your drug libraries, your compound libraries. Test them for free. We’ll pay for it. You keep the IP. We just want you to know if there’s something interesting here.” Again, because no one cared about rare disease, let alone a pediatric one, it took years before any company, even for free, was willing to do that, which is crazy.

Finally, we got Novartis to bite, and they ended up finding a drug that had failed for toxicity reasons for anorexia or something back in the ’70s that was off-the-charts good. Suddenly, it was, “Oh, this is interesting.”

To give an example of just how different the world is now versus then, early on I’d use relationships to drag some of our scientists and advisors to meet with heads of research at different companies and try to pitch them. I’d say, “Look, guys, I know this is a small disease, but there’s a chance to do something. It won’t cost a whole lot to find out. You don’t have to spend 40% on marketing, all that kind of stuff.”

One of my slides showed that if you charged $5,000 to $15,000 a year, you could actually end up with a drug worth hundreds of millions of dollars in profit. It wouldn’t just be a charity project; you could actually make a little bit of money from it.

The head of one of the largest biotech companies actually laughed at me in the meeting and said, “Look, Tancrede, the most expensive drug in the world is Avastin,” which was an oncology drug. “It’s $50,000 a year. No one’s ever going to pay that kind of money for a small rare disease for children.”

It became a running joke in the end because this person, Alessandro Rock, was an incredible advisor and helper to us. He joined our scientific advisory board and really helped us immensely. In the end, the first drug that we helped develop went through Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory and then a company called Ionis. We then had them partner with Biogen.

Biogen essentially bought into the drug and became the first to market with an SMA drug. When they did, they charged, I think, $730,000 a year for it. I think it’s one of the top 3 drugs, pulling in $4 billion or $5 billion in revenue. Amazingly, today the SMA drug market, I think, is high single-digit billions, and it’s a top-3 drug for Roche, Novartis, and Biogen.

But the notion that a pediatric neurology drug would be anything of value back then was a hard sell. We basically had to put it in a box with a bow on it and give it to people for free because otherwise they’d never touch it. That’s really what we did, and we spent a fortune on models testing everything.

It was clear after testing everything that some of the existing FDA-approved drugs would have some impact, but none would be good enough, and you’d have toxicity issues, so it didn’t work. So we then pursued all 3 shots on goal that we thought were relevant. Cold Spring Harbor Labs had a great scientist who had what’s called an antisense oligo, a biologic—one of the first biologics. Essentially, the viral vector takes the protein in the body, and it was designed to patch that defect in that backup gene and help that backup gene become a fully functioning regular gene, which would be magic, presto.

That became the first drug, the one that Biogen ended up buying in. Second was good old-fashioned small molecules, syringes and pills. It was a bit like what Novartis, for example, had found: something that worked. We basically paid a company called PTC Therapeutics lots and lots of money to go and test everything under the sun they could imagine with different screens, and ended up finding one that really, really worked.

And so we basically just paid to develop that, and then actually got Roche in to go and take it from there. That’s actually the drug my daughter’s on now. In between was gene therapy, which a company called AveXis did, and then Novartis bought it for $8 billion. And I guess it’s really the first gene therapy drug ever approved.

Here, we didn’t support it as directly from a financial and other perspective, though our board members were active investors, and we helped them with the network and the library and the clinical trial networks. Our focus, just being selfish to some degree, was that gene therapy is great, but only works for very little kids. Essentially, in gene therapy, you’re taking viruses and bringing protein into your body, and when you’re large, that amount of virus will kill you, basically. The toxicity becomes an issue.

But we wanted all 3 shots on goal to be scored. Look, we got lucky. Today, we have all 3 as approved drugs. So the first was that Biogen drug, the second was the gene therapy with AveXis, and the third is Roche, which is just a syringe you take every day. That was incredible luck, I suppose.

4. Accelerating FDA Approval

But part of what we did from a time perspective, because we were desperately worried about the clock running out, was try and make sure that we could have everything in place so that when these drugs were ready, they could go 90 miles an hour. And so, for example, we went to the FDA through lots of relationships on the political side, both to get NIH moving, by the way, in the early days, and to help later on. We got to know, if you will, all the relevant senators and congressmen that mattered when it came to drug development, NIH, and things like that.

And look, our view was just that a parent with tears on their face doesn’t get very far. But we would say, “Look, we want to be really supportive of you. There’s a chance here to actually achieve a success, and that’s why you should focus on this, not just because it’s sad, but because it might be fixable.” And I think that became a powerful combination. It took some work.

We, for example, got 50 top scientists who are Nobel Prize winners to sign a letter talking about how there was a really good chance of success here. We then started literally taking out full-page color ads in some of the political newspapers in Washington—Roll Call, Daily Herald, that sort of stuff—so that all the staffers would see this very striking, full-color ad every day on this stuff. Lots of stuff like that, to really go and essentially create a real sense of momentum on the side, because it did occur to us that while, at the end of the day, developing the drug mattered, getting companies involved would matter, and everyone would move faster if they thought that the other guy was there too. And with the FDA as an example, that really helped.

They worked with us, and we said, “Look, guys, we need this to move fast. So what can we do? And by the way, kids are dying. We can’t afford to run a placebo trial; it doesn’t make any sense.” And so we worked with them and got their approval to essentially run a natural history study, meaning while the drugs were being developed, we basically paid for people’s care for a handful of years so that we could have a log of what the natural progression of the disease was and use that as our placebo.

And so when it came time for the trials, the trials didn’t have to be placebo-blind trials, essentially because the FDA was willing to accept the fact that it would compare the results from the trial to what the natural history study results were for kids normally with SMA. That saved a lot of lives and a lot of money because otherwise, half the kids would have died in those trials, including potentially our daughter.

With all the persistence and with a little help from our friends as well, the first SMA drug, I think, was then, and maybe still now, the fastest approval by the FDA ever in the history of any drug.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Wow.

Dinakar Singh

Which is pretty cool. The good news, bad news, of course, is that my daughter ended up being on the first drug since she was 12, so she has been stable since then and has ended up being just the rock star of the family. She went to Yale, won 3 of the 11 awards for most outstanding student, was class speaker—you name it. And during COVID, amazingly, she went on Hinge and met up with this unbelievably amazing, 6-foot-4, fantastic Princeton kid. They fell in love, and they got married last fall. She’s now getting her PhD at Cornell. So I guess we ended up with our doctor in the family.

But just watching her thrive has been remarkable. That said, the clock was the clock. Every year, she got weaker until the drugs came along. In SMA, the progression typically would be that kids get weaker, stuff starts falling apart, like your spine, and you need spinal fusions. That means your spine is constricted, you can’t grow, and that creates lung damage. Then you start getting pneumonia and all sorts of stuff.

And so you end up—I mean, in the old days—with enormous deformities in children. And like many degenerative diseases—ALS, Parkinson’s, even Alzheimer’s—no one dies of SMA. It just makes you really weak, and then something gets you, whether it’s asphyxiation, choking, or pneumonia, more often than not. Val Kilmer just died yesterday of pneumonia, but pneumonia was really just a side effect of throat cancer.

In her case, our goal was to manically keep her as strong as possible until the drugs could come along. We had physical therapists coming to see her every day. We built a pool in our apartment building for her because you need warm water, and it’s a special therapy pool. But that was important because when you’re a person who’s weak, part of the problem is that it’s circular. You’re weak, you can’t exercise and stretch your muscles and bones, so they keep getting weaker and weaker on top of the original problem in the first place, and that creates this devastating cycle.

And so here, between diet, exercise, and therapy, the goal was to go and keep her as strong as possible to hold off that damage from all these things. It worked and it didn’t work. She did end up needing spinal fusion and having rods put in her back, et cetera. But fortunately, those were late enough that she had already grown, and so it didn’t create the deformity you’d normally see in someone else. She had problems with her hip that blew out and things like that.

When she was turning 10 or 11, every year became a major surgery. And even aside from those major surgeries, she was in the operating room or in the hospital probably 3 times a year with severe pneumonia, at risk of dying each time. And with all these things, it is a bit Humpty Dumpty-like. Once it breaks, you can’t just put it back together again.

On one hand, if it had been a year earlier, that would’ve been all the better. But the good news is that, compared to what we expected at the onset, to see her here, a rock star and truly happy with amazing friends and a husband, is just—

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

So touching.

5. Regenerating Damaged Muscle

Dinakar Singh

I describe to people: if you have a boat and you have a hole in it, trying to bail water out of the boat is not really going to be a useful strategy. You’re going to sink, just maybe a tiny bit slower. Once you fix that hole, and now there’s water in the boat, bailing water out of the boat could actually be a really good strategy.

Mission stage 2 now is that we’re working on a ton of drugs that we think can regenerate muscle. Nerve is harder to do, but muscle is a bit easier, and we can also help existing nerves get a little bit stronger. We have 1 already in the clinic. It’s not the best one, but we expect to have 3 or 4 things coming forward that could be really impactful. And what’s actually pretty cool about this is that the SMA drugs are SMA-specific: 20,000 kids, so it’s a lot of people, but they’re SMA-specific.

These regeneration drugs will actually help lots of people. And it’s ironic because SMA is actually becoming a poster child for this because—take muscle as an example. I assume that there would be tons of people and experts who knew all about muscle development, from muscle stem cells called satellite cells into muscles, et cetera. There may be 6 people in this country who know what they’re talking about when it comes to muscle. It’s crazy.

I assumed, well, gosh, if you’ve got A-Rod and steroids and all that kind of stuff, I mean, there must be big money in it. But the reality is that muscle has been a really tough field for a couple of interesting reasons. There are 2 types of people who have muscle problems: people with degenerative diseases like SMA, muscular dystrophy, et cetera, or, on the other side, old, weak people. Old, weak people are a disaster to go and do trials on, and you’re trying to see what a moderate impact can make when there’s such decline happening. And so clinical trials—and this is the problem with Alzheimer’s—are very, very challenging in elderly, degenerating patients.

In that first category, people with muscular disease, until SMA, none of it had been solved. It was a bit like that boat where you haven't fixed the hole in the first place.

SMA is now becoming this really fascinating area because suddenly, if you have an idea for a muscle drug, you can actually test it in SMA and see whether it does something. Now you've fixed that boat, if you will. It's quite a difference from 20 years ago, when no one cared. Now suddenly we're calling up people and saying, “Look, we think there's an idea. Your drug can really work here. Let's go test it out.” They're doing it, so fingers crossed.

I think my hope here is that we'll end up with a handful of drugs in the next handful of years that could really help bring back some strength for kids with SMA and other things as well. That would be amazing because, as amazing a life as our daughter has now, she is still fragile. When you're fragile, as you get older, things happen. If we can bring back some strength, that will be even more transformative and impactful, so it's exciting stuff.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

The third time I'll say it: one of the most remarkable, inspiring, incredible stories I've ever heard of this type. I'd love just to put a bow on it by asking what the prognosis is now for a new child born with this issue, with these drugs available from a very early age, versus from the age of 12, when your daughter started on them.

Dinakar Singh

A child born and getting the drug post-diagnosis will never show symptoms.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Unbelievable. 20,000 kids.

Dinakar Singh

Yeah, 20,000 kids and their families. Many of the people that we've gotten to know the best over the years are people whose kids are affected by the disease, because there's a commonality and it's devastating for everyone. Parents who lose their jobs because they keep taking time off and can't afford insurance—I mean, it's just this horrible spiral.

There was a family whose father worked at Walmart. They had twins with SMA, and you just wanted to cry hearing their story. That is the funny irony with all this stuff: my parents were both scientists, and they would joke that it was such a tragedy that both their kids became partners at Goldman Sachs. In some ways, this all came full circle because having some of the science background, but also having the good fortune, good luck, and privilege of working in investing and finance, helped us go and actually put that science to work.

A further amazing irony is that Columbia was our leading center in all this, and my mom had worked on the faculty at Columbia. Roche makes the drug that my daughter's on, my father got a job at Roche, and it was a Roche scholarship that paid for my college.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Unbelievable.

Dinakar Singh

Funny how it's ended up being a circular process, but it cost a lot of money. I think we spent probably $150 million of our own money on this. But in the scheme of things, the commitment that we made at the beginning to ourselves was that if there was a way, we were going to find it and, no matter what, make sure that we were able to drive through it.

Winding back to where we started in some of this, I guess that's a bit of the stubbornness. But a preferable word is determination, which I saw in my parents. In that sense, I think there's really nothing less than what I would do for my daughter.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

When I step back, I've now had the luck to hear the story twice, and when you told it to me the first time, it seemed almost absurd. If you submitted a screenplay for this, you'd get laughed out of the room by the producer: you're going to start one of the fastest-growing investment firms, one of the most successful investment firms, save your daughter, save 20,000 kids, and develop a drug which, economically, is very valuable—to say which is a footnote compared to the impact it has on the lives and families.

It's almost not believable. It's so incredible. It's such an incredible story. What you didn't say the first time, which makes it even more magical, is the tie-back to your parents and their persistence. Honestly, it's just one of the most incredible, inspirational stories I've heard.

A follow-up question that I have is what you learned, maybe, that you've taught other parents about persisting through years of this kind of effort, and what advice you might give to people who have to dig deep every day for so long to accomplish the thing that they're trying to do for a loved one or for a similarly powerful reason. Because it's not hard for me to imagine the love for the child, but it's hard for me to imagine the ability, with my body, to get through it for so long, and I'm curious how you did that.

6. Turning Sorrow Into Purpose

Dinakar Singh

I think Nora was 2 or 3. We were getting into nursery school. And, by the way, another saga and another crusade that I'm going to be on more aggressively going forward: getting schools to care or take her was unbelievably hard.

When she was going to private school, I think she was the only kid in a major New York City private school in a wheelchair. I kind of know this as well because I'm on lots of boards—the public library, lots of institutional boards—and have lots of influential friends and charity relationships. I couldn't find a single school that would take her. Many are perfectly accessible, but I'd get calls from friends on the board saying, “Look, Dan, okay, it's just not going to happen.”

The ostensible reason—I think one school said she wasn't bright enough. Crazy. It turned out to be maybe not bright enough for them, but bright enough to get straight A's at Yale—summa cum laude and all that kind of stuff. They didn't know what to make of her. We had one school actually ask to see her medical records and talk to her doctor before they'd consider.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Oh, my God.

Dinakar Singh

I mean, guys, you know that's absolutely fucking illegal. But you had to do it because it might be legal, but unless I tried—I mean, when she would start in school, we would send write-ups to other parents basically saying, “Here's what SMA is and here's what to make of it.”

But in any event, for nursery school she went to All Souls, which is the Episcopalian church school. Initially, they didn't want to take her, and they said, “Look, there's great cerebral palsy schools you could send her to.” I'm like, “Yeah, that'd be great, except she doesn't have cerebral palsy, guys. This is a totally different disease.”

Eventually, I think they felt badly and took her, and she had a great experience. But you're supposed to volunteer to give sermons as members of the congregation, and so I did. I'll read you quickly the speech I gave.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Please.

Dinakar Singh

Most of you have probably never heard of SMA. We certainly hadn't, and were horrified by what we learned. It is the most common genetic killer of infants, and it's untreatable, incurable, and eventually fatal. It's described as a children's version of ALS or a genetic version of polio. Simply put, motor neurons die and muscles break down, leading to eventually fatal complications.

In most cases, SMA kills within the first 2 years of life. In more or less severe cases, such as our daughter's, the progression can take many years, so as the mind grows, the body steadily weakens and eventually betrays it. Obviously, we were devastated and shattered. Over the past year, our hearts have broken every day as we've watched her become irresistibly adorable and learn to sing, tell jokes, and talk endlessly, but also lose the ability to stand up, the ability to crawl, let alone walk, and the ability to even sit up by herself.

And yet, 3 realizations have helped us slowly face the future. First, we've truly learned and appreciated the importance of friends and community. The comfort and love of friends has been a source of incredible strength for us, and meeting other parents with issues and learning from them and the incredible challenges many of them deal with has been an incredible source of inspiration for us.

We've realized that there are no good diseases, but there are many, many strong people, and their courage is truly infectious, far more than any disease. More than ever, we've come to realize how much deeper our reserves of strength are as part of a community than as individuals.

Second, through the strength, comfort, and inspiration of our friends, we've gained some perspective and been able to focus on finding the joy in the life that we have. We slowly realized that if we just hold our heads in our hands, we're accomplishing nothing for our daughter or ourselves, for that matter. At first, it's hard not to be consumed by the shattered dreams and lost notions of what could have been.

Yet over time, we've come to focus on the many good things that can be and realize that there is joy in every day. If anything, we're now much more focused on appreciating the little things in life. Today, despite all the issues, our daughter is as happy and joyful as any child we know, and we are as lucky as any parent we know to have a child as sweet and adorable as she is.

So we've learned from our daughter that while the sources of joy and happiness might be different than what we previously imagined, that doesn't mean that the magnitude of the joy is any less.

And third, we realized the importance of channeling the inevitable anger and sorrow into productive channels so as to perhaps have some good, some purpose, and some meaning in all of this. I'm joined with other parents of children with SMA in efforts to improve care and further research so that this disease may one day be eradicated. In doing so, we found a productive outlet for our sorrow and our anger, and also a real reason for hope.

And finally, let me just say how grateful we've been to be part of such a wonderful community. The strength and comfort offered by many of you has helped us focus on life, not on sorrow. After all, in life there are no do-overs, there are no retractions, and there are no appeals.

You either find joy in the life you have or live a life without joy. And while the circumstances of your life might not be up to you, whether you choose to find joy and purpose in them is ultimately very much up to you. So that was the speech.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Wow. Jesus.

Dinakar Singh

I think it captures the process that one goes through. For every parent, it's part sorrow and part rage. Depending on the moment, sometimes it's more rage than sorrow. You just want to go and break everything. But I do think that you eventually figure out that while it's very consuming, it's not going to get you very far under any circumstance.

Knowing other people and talking to people who have gone through things like this is hugely helpful because it helps you recognize that there's a journey in all this stuff. Every parent I know whose child has an issue was unbelievably emotionally supportive to us. Almost every couple of weeks, I'll get a call from someone saying, “Look, I've got a friend or someone who has a disease. They want to make an impact on it. They've heard your story. Can you help?”

To me, that's the greatest joy I have: speaking to other parents and helping them think about what they can do, what can be done, what can't be done, and so on. I joined the board of Jackson Labs. They essentially invented mouse models and are still the leader in that. It's an incredible institution. No drug has ever been developed without using their mice.

I joke that it's the most important biotech institute that no one has heard of. Early on, we had gone to them to work on building mouse models and making them free, so people could call them up and they'd send the mice over. I'm working with them on setting up a rare disease institute. We're going to have a squad of people to do a bit of what we did in SMA.

I hear all these heartbreaking stories, and they're the same things that I had 20 years ago. People who want to make a difference don't just want to make random donations that they think will be like throwing water on sand. They don't know how. In our case, we had a lot of resources, connections, and money, and could essentially reinvent or invent the wheel.

For other people, it's a waste of money and a waste of time, both of which are incredibly scarce when you're a parent with a child who's suffering. Our goal is to have what I call the Ghostbusters of rare disease: if you have a disease, you call us, and we'll get some scientists to work on it and help you put together a plan. We don't care whether it's with us or not. We want to be the brain trust for people who want to think about game plans for trying to solve a disease that affects someone they care about.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

How do you hope the world of biotech evolves or changes, given your incredible ground-level experience—not only knowing how the system works and the extreme steps it took for you to speed up timelines, but also knowing that the potential impact can be so massive? There are 20,000 kids with no evidence and no symptoms in their life because of your work and everyone you worked with and their work. How do you hope, with all that experience and knowledge, that the system itself evolves?

7. Reforming The Biotech System

Dinakar Singh

There have been some good things and some bad things, I guess, leading to what I hope will happen next. On the good side, you don't have to bash someone over the head to get them to understand that rare disease can be lucrative for them. There haven't been that many, but when people have seen the money that's been made on this stuff, people care.

The challenge remains that if you're a company working in oncology, even if there isn't a drug tomorrow, you're going to be working in oncology for the next 100 years, and that information can be useful in other things. But the challenge with rare disease remains that a lot of these are pretty bespoke.

The difference from 20 years ago is that you don't need to convince someone that it can eventually be very profitable. But you still have to convince them that there's a good chance they'll be able to cure it, because that early-stage investment is tricky. There needs to be a much more thoughtful effort working with NIH, FDA, and disease groups to find ways to have a much more thoughtful, practical early stage, because scientists writing papers and grants is really not a very effective way to get this done.

There's still too big a gap between a good scientific idea and when a biotech company is actually going to spend the money and do it. You don't have to get it to the 10-yard line anymore, but you still have to get it to midfield. I think more novel structures would actually be great.

To get back to that NIH translational research program from way back when, while it didn't end up making that much of a difference in SMA because we just ended up throwing the money at it and doing it ourselves, it's a pretty cool idea. If one could do that again, it's that Ghostbusters idea that I'm doing at Jackson Labs.

The problem is that we found, in this world, that companies mean well, but they're not trying to solve a disease. They're trying to attach value to intellectual property that they have. If you solve SMA with something that they don't have intellectual property on, it isn't very useful. Scientists are in the business of getting grants, and you don't get grants for, let's say, parallel processing or ruling things out.

You don't get a grant by saying, “I don't think this is going to work, but I just want to prove it doesn't work so I can then move on.” That doesn't get you grant money. But a lot of those things, and the tools and things like that, are very much the nitty-gritty that actually gets you through that early stage where you say, “Whoa, I've got something.”

Whether it's places like Jackson Labs or the NIH, having these amped-up translational research efforts where people can set aside a little bit of money would help. That early stage doesn't cost that much, either. It's later on that you really start going down money rabbit holes.

For a relatively small amount of money, you could actually get people a good chunk down the field, to where companies would care more. When you think about it, obviously the flavor of the day is to tear government down. Government did a pretty good job in some of this stuff, but certainly we can make government smarter.

Whether it's government or institutions like Jackson Labs, there is a role here to be played that could be pretty thoughtful. A few diseases could be picked at a time, and a modest amount of money could be put in or coordinated so that you actually end up having a game plan. What a lot of people need is a game plan, as opposed to having money handed out randomly.

You also need a third party that's viewed as somewhat neutral, because academics are great people, but they don't like collaborating that much. Companies really don't like collaborating with each other because it's an intellectual-property problem. Companies and universities are now having more difficulty collaborating because universities want intellectual property, having seen the money you can get from royalties and things like that.

Having a third party that's sort of Switzerland and can be an honest broker on this stuff is actually pretty important. That's my hope: finding a way to have a more thoughtful process so that people don't have to figure out how to see if there's something there.

On the back end, it's good that people care about rare disease, but the cost of this stuff is insane. What companies are charging is just nuts. I wish, when we had put all the money in, we had put in restrictions on what companies could eventually charge, because $1 million to $2 million a year is bonkers.

I'll give you a funny example of it. I remember talking to the people at Columbia when the first drug was coming out, and it was actually a working-capital problem. They had to bring their CFO in. Since Columbia was a major center, they could fill in Harvard or Stanford or whatever as well. The SMA drug cost $800,000 a year—the first one. To actually buy the doses to treat the kids would have cost tens of millions of dollars that they didn't have in their budget.

It's crazy. It's a real issue. I still get calls, and we get calls all the time, from people in other countries. As an example, there's a Goldman Sachs analyst from Uzbekistan, and they called asking for help because their family knows someone close to them whose daughter was diagnosed. If she gets treatment, she'll be saved.

But in Uzbekistan, there's no place to get treated. You can't just come to the United States and get treated because of all sorts of legal and other issues and loopholes. Of course, then you've got to come up with the money to do it as well. It costs a couple million bucks. You can't just go to London and do it because, again, the whole regulatory framework is crazy.

There are still kids dying of SMA, even in cases where treatment exists. In this case, for example, the family had gone around through supermarkets and stuff—collecting cans and putting up signs in town—and raised $400,000 to get her treated. They couldn't find someone to take the money or find a practical way to treat her.

She was going to die or suffer unnecessarily because of crazy regulatory and bureaucratic issues between countries. We have to figure out something on the cost. Maybe it's with these drugs having some amount of money set aside when there are these windfall profits, to go and help with charity care or things like that. But the notion that we develop these drugs and there are kids dying because they can't afford them is pretty insane.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

It’s hard for me to ask my traditional closing question in this particular case because of the story you’ve just told, and knowing that contained in the story is so much kindness in so many directions that I’m sure it’ll be hard to know where to begin. But my question that I ask everybody is for the kindest thing that anyone’s ever done for them.

Dinakar Singh

After my daughter was diagnosed, people just giving me hugs was about the best feeling on Earth. There’s nothing more powerful than just compassion from friends or strangers, just to feel like you’re all human together. I think in life, at our worst moments, just getting some of people’s strength and energy imbued in you a little bit gives you the ability to go and stand up and move forward the next time.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

I’m sure I speak for literally everyone listening when I say thank you for telling this story. You’ve imbued us, certainly me, with that same strength and determination. It’s incredible what you’ve done already, and I’m sure what you will continue to do. I love hearing about your daughter’s current state and her wonderful marriage. What a way to spend my day. Thank you so much for your time.

Dinakar Singh

Of course. Thanks, Tom.

Dinakar Singh——父亲的行动号召——[Invest Like the Best,第428期] — 文字稿与摘要 | BidClub