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Thread Guy · · 62 分钟

Amit Kukreja——如何跑赢股市..

Amit KukrejaThread Guy

股票加密金融区块链投资企业经营
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TL;DR
  • Amit Kukreja 在 Palantir 上的成功,源于他识别出一群异常狂热的散户拥趸,并在经历 90% 回撤后仍执着于彻底理解这家公司。 他最初发布的《我买入了 25,000 美元的 Palantir》视频首日获得 7,000 次播放;他没有把这当成一波 meme 股流量,而是判断出确实有一部分人极度在意 Palantir。这一受众洞察,加上深度研究和持续不断的内容生产,最终同时变成了投资逻辑和职业生涯。

  • 他认为散户投资者可以跑赢标普 500,但前提是持续研究、跟踪组合并保持独立判断,而不是盲目复制公开喊单。 上行空间是真实存在的:比如在 Rocket Lab 20 美元时买入,等它涨到 70 美元,收益可能足以支付孩子的学费。约束在于能否保持一致性——“标普真的很难跑赢”,选股需要高度主动性。

  • 两位嘉宾都认为,市场影响力必须与 conviction 同步放大,并承担相应责任。 Kukreja 表示,他会在受众影响力和自身 conviction 之间保持平衡,并投入大量时间做尽调;Thread Guy 则避免推广成交稀疏、低市值的公司,因为这可能制造拉高出货。Kukreja 还表示,自己从未接受公司付费或股份来做推广。

  • 两人认为,现代市场越来越奖励对叙事的识别能力,同时也要求扎实的基本面研究。 Thread Guy 表示,加密交易者理解“memetics、narrative、attention”,并承认自己过去低估了 memory 和数据中心等主题。Kukreja 认同加密交易者能够捕捉 quantum、nuclear、space、data centers 和 AI 等主题的动量。更大的启示是,“押注主题”很重要;相较于 5 万亿美元的 Nvidia,小公司拥有更大的复利空间。

  • Robinhood 是 Kukreja 对散户金融化最明确的长期押注,但要走向万亿美元市值,必须从交易平台扩展成覆盖用户全部金融生活的入口。 他认为 Robinhood 对散户热潮的贡献率达到“99.3%”,并预计平台将向 banking、tokenization、crypto infrastructure、cards、loans 和 mortgages 扩张,从而降低对交易量的依赖。他认为 Robinhood 的员工和管理层都在以异常高的强度工作。

  • Kukreja 认为,加密行业近期遭受的不只是财务打击,也是一场心理打击;但两位嘉宾都相信,真正持久的用例会在清洗后留下来。 Bitcoin、Hyperliquid 的 perpetuals,以及 Monero 和 Zcash 等隐私资产对 Kukreja 仍然重要;Thread Guy 则补充了 tokenization,并认为链上基础设施正在与传统市场汇合。Hyperliquid 的 24/7 市场预示着石油、金属和股票都可能在链上交易,但 leverage——10/10 爆仓的核心推手——仍是最大风险。

  • Kukreja 的承销框架要求很高:先测算 TAM,再梳理盈利和 operating leverage 的路径,最后判断管理层是否值得托付你的资本。 Thread Guy 说,他在 Robinhood 8 美元时被吸引,是因为其约 80 亿美元市值中包含 60 亿美元现金,意味着企业价值约为 20 亿美元,而收入约为 10 亿美元。Kukreja 的组合将 Palantir、Robinhood 和 Nvidia 作为长期基石,将其他仓位视为交易,并通过 covered calls 和对冲管理回撤。

摘要 · 为研究而整理的核心内容

1. Palantir 将一次投资变成了投资者身份

  • Kukreja 的突破始于一笔约 25,000 美元的 Palantir 投资,以及一个标题极其直接的视频:《我买入了 25,000 美元的 Palantir》。视频首日获得 7,000 次播放,揭示出一种比短期拉升更持久的东西:人们极度在意这家公司的名字、CEO 的个人气质、它的国防业务,以及那种“诡异而神秘的氛围”。

  • 他的应对方式,是把辩论训练形成的论证能力,与对公司的穷尽式分析结合起来。随后的 90% 回撤没有终止这场实验;当自己的净资产约有一半蒸发后,他决定“既然如此,不如再多了解一点”,随后制作了数千条视频,并围绕这段旅程建立起一个社区。

  • 这种谦逊来自更早的一场灾难:21 岁时,他把全部 25,000 美元净资产投入 Purple Biotech,股票代码 PPBT,相信它可能治愈所有疾病。多次反向拆股后,30,000 股变成 3,000 股,他亲眼学到,缺乏理解的集中持仓足以在现实中抹去整个账户。

2. 公众影响力让 conviction 变成了风险控制问题

  • Palantir 和 Robinhood 的成功让他承受寻找第三只 20 倍股的压力,但 Kukreja 不接受这是正常基准:在约两年半内从 7 美元涨到 150 美元,本身就是极端罕见的表现。Grab 是他尚未完成的第三个投资逻辑,曾在接近 4.50 美元时被他提及,近期约为 3.90 美元;他认为股价应接近 7.50 美元,但也接受需要 2 至 3 年时间。

  • 他区分了众所周知的机会与真正的发现。在 130 美元买 Oracle,或在 90 美元买 Nvidia,都可能赚钱,但都没有发现一家被市场遗弃的公司的传奇色彩。Thread Guy 认为,向庞大受众推广一家成交稀疏、低于 10 亿美元市值的公司,可能人为制造业绩,这正是他避免这么做的原因。

  • 当粉丝因为 Kukreja 随口提到自己读过几篇文章,就买入一家未具名的软件公司时,责任变得具体起来。“我甚至没有发布过投资逻辑,连一页纸都没有,”他抗议道。Zeta 体现了他偏好的披露方式:公开尽调过程,透明地买入,并接受股价可能从 18 美元涨到 25 美元、跌至 14 美元,再回到接近 18 美元的路径。

3. 散户把股票变成了文化运动

  • Kukreja 认为,今天的市场文化经历了 Tesla、疫情时期的刺激政策、GameStop 和 AMC,最终走到了 Palantir。散户在 20 美元以下不断买入 Palantir;当增长加速、指数纳入迫使机构买入时,早期持有者完全可以这样想:“我是在 6 美元买的,现在那个管理着 100 亿美元基金的人,却被迫在 40 美元买入。”

  • 信息民主化让个人创作者能够围绕被忽视的公司,建立机构级别的关注度。Kukreja 提到,有些社区在 Rocket Lab 接近 4 美元、SoFi 接近 5 美元、ASTS 接近 2 美元时就发现了它们,后者后来一度达到约 80 美元。他的提醒是,找到公司和建立运动都“他妈的难”。

  • Thread Guy 说,加密交易者在注意力和叙事识别上拥有优势,能够迅速发现某只股票何时成为“当天互联网的主旋律”。Kukreja 认同,加密交易者能够识别 memory、data centers、quantum、nuclear、space 和 AI 等主题中的动量。

  • 大宗商品暴露了基本面叙事的边界。Kukreja 在铜上赚了约 10%,但当白银下跌 30%、铜机械性跟跌时,他选择离场。“它只是 Bitcoin 或 Ethereum 的 altcoin,”他总结道——数据中心逻辑已经从属于算法动量。

4. 跑赢指数需要主动性,而不是崇拜 guru

  • Kukreja 的答案是,新投资者可以通过认真尽调、主动交易或选股,改善自己的财务未来。但他立刻补上限定条件:持续跑赢标普很难,组合需要持续跟踪,网络分析应成为个人决策的输入,而不是把判断外包出去。

  • 这种吸引力既有经济层面,也有文化层面。在 Rocket Lab 20 美元时经过充分研究后买入,等它涨到 70 美元,收益可能足以支付学费;而日常市场本身也会变成一种“运动”,奖励信息处理能力。对 Kukreja 来说,即使参与者最终不会成为职业交易员,这也比整天看体育比赛更好。

  • 面对金融虚无主义,Kukreja 给出的答案是工作和死亡,而不是宏观理论。他在只有 10 名观众时,就以后来面对 10,000 名观众的同样能量进行直播,并将自己的创造力归功于母亲、将工作 ethic 归功于父亲。内在时钟的提醒很直接:“我们终有一天都会死……时间正在耗尽。你必须放手去做。”

5. Robinhood 必须成为用户完整的金融界面

  • Kukreja 将散户热潮“99.3%”的功劳归于 Robinhood,因为它让开户和交易变得令人愉悦,而传统券商从未做到这一点。他接受市场游戏化的批评,但认为兴奋感不可或缺:否则金融市场对大多数人来说无法接近,而更多参与者意味着更高流动性。

  • 眼下的弱点在于对交易量的依赖;战争期间交易活跃度下降,股价也随之受损。Kukreja 认为,Vlad Tenev 的战略答案是切入 cards、banking、loans、mortgages、tokenization 和 crypto infrastructure,让 Robinhood 覆盖用户完整的金融生活,同时仍把用户拉回市场。

  • Kukreja 认为 Robinhood 可能成为一家万亿美元公司,尽管他称这一预测“疯狂”。他形容这是一家驱动力极强的组织,员工每天工作 12–15 小时。Thread Guy 则提供了那把木槌的轶闻:据称,当团队未能完成目标时,Tenev 会在会议中使用木槌,比如目标是 100,000 名订阅用户,结果只有 95,000 名。

  • Kukreja 表示,Robinhood 和 Palantir 都没有赞助他;他自己购买 Palantir 周边产品,也自行承担参加公司活动的旅行费用。Thread Guy 则表示,他曾拒绝公司以股份换取复制 Palantir 效应的提议,也从未收过公司付费。

6. Perpetuals 正在把加密轨道与所有可交易资产连接起来

  • Thread Guy 提到,2 月 28 日美国和以色列袭击伊朗后,传统市场关闭期间,Hyperliquid 仍然提供 24/7 的油价发现,据称约有 20 亿美元的价格发现发生在链上。对他而言,perpetuals 已经从加密行业的一个新奇产品,演变成全天候表达对石油、白银、黄金和股票看法的基础设施。

  • Kukreja 对无需直接持有就能获得 Anthropic 等资产衍生品敞口很感兴趣,但 leverage 仍是他的红线。他将 10/10 的加密崩盘归因于过度杠杆,并将 perps 与 Robinhood 的 tokenization 模式作对比,后者的股票以一比一方式托管。“创新令人难以置信,”Thread Guy 说,“但真正让我害怕的是 leverage。”

  • Thread Guy 认为,对杠杆的需求本来就存在:他估计 zero-DTE options 可能占期权交易的 60–70%,尽管许多用户并不理解 Greeks、theta 或 convexity。Perps 提供了更简单的做多或做空界面,也没有固定到期日,因此市场最终从 24/5 转向 24/7,感觉很可能发生。

  • Thread Guy 在连续 5 个月观看 Michael Saylor 的访谈后开始看多 Bitcoin,并得出结论:持续的货币贬值需要一种反周期对冲工具。但他仍未解决一个问题——为什么在印钞加速时,加密资产却下跌;这也引出了本期节目更尖锐的争论:Bitcoin 是否真的表现得像这种对冲工具。

7. 加密行业经历的是精神层面的投降,而不只是清算

  • Kukreja 认为,加密行业一直难以界定许多 token 到底代表什么:股权、meme,还是介于两者之间的东西。他表示,Hyperliquid 部分解决了这种模糊性,因为它每年创造约 10 亿美元收入,并用收入回购自身 token;Bitcoin,以及 Monero 和 Zcash 等隐私资产,则保留了更清晰的用例。Thread Guy 则单独强调 tokenization,以及加密市场与传统市场更广泛的融合。

  • Kukreja 认为,近期崩盘不同于 FTX,因为它没有一个 FTX 级别的单一催化剂,而是涉及一场“精神层面的投降”。此前 2 年的牛市由 meme coins 主导,最终甚至演变成 Trump 推出两种 meme coin。Bitcoin 在 10/10 前曾达到约 126,000 美元,而 altcoins 早已“跌到泥里”,于是 leverage 在脆弱市场中层层传导。他没有明确称这次事件比 FTX 更严重。

  • Thread Guy 剩下的投资逻辑是市场融合,而不是回到彼此隔离的“股票 versus crypto”部落。加密用户可以把资金留在链上,同时交易 Robinhood、Tesla、大宗商品或私募市场代理资产;传统投资者也可以反向迁移。“赌场永不关门”,但这套轨道可能在赌场之外同样有用。

8. 战时波动奖励的是部分 conviction,而不是完美择时

  • Thread Guy 的聊天室在这场由战争驱动、持续 2 个月的回撤期间几乎均分:三分之一重仓买入,三分之一小幅买入,三分之一什么都没做。政治极化让每个仓位都充满争议——在一方看来,买入显得鲁莽;在另一方看来,对冲又显得不爱国。因此,他将自己描述为“一个也在试图通过交易赚点钱的内容创作者”。

  • Kukreja 处于中间那一档:Palantir 暴跌时加仓,同时买入 Rocket Lab 和 Oracle,但从未达到最大仓位。停火宣布后,他调动了约 35,000 美元退休金现金,而不是在精确底部买入;他保留了市场敞口,同时承认自己本可以在某些时点买得更多。

  • 这与上一次关税抛售形成鲜明对比。散户当时把约 30% 的跌幅视为显而易见的买入机会,因为他们不相信极端关税会持续;这一次,投资者真正担心的是第三次世界大战和永久性的经济损害。当价格回到历史新高时,散户后来的买入究竟是新一轮动量,还是潜在顶部,Kukreja 不愿假装自己知道答案。

9. 深度研究与真实媒体,本质上是同一套复利过程

  • Kukreja 的 3 部分承销流程从 TAM 开始,随后检验盈利能力或通往盈利的路径,尤其关注 operating margin 的扩张,最后再审视管理层。

  • Thread Guy 说,他在 Robinhood 8 美元时被吸引,是因为其约 80 亿美元市值中包含 60 亿美元现金,意味着企业价值约为 20 亿美元,而收入约为 10 亿美元。随后,他深入研究 Vlad、GameStop 争议、商业模式和 SEC filings。

  • Kukreja 将管理层问题表述为:他是否可以把集中资本交给 Vlad 或 Alex Karp。Grab 当前疲弱的利润率之所以仍可接受,只是因为他认为公司存在一条可信的改善路径。

  • Palantir、Robinhood 和 Nvidia 是 Kukreja 组合中的基石。当 Robinhood 接近 120 美元时,他卖出了 1 年期、执行价 100 美元的 covered calls;股价跌到接近 60 美元后,他平掉这些期权,缓和了回撤。Amazon、Meta、Zeta、Oracle、Nebius、Amcor 和 Grab 也进入了组合,其中 Oracle 目前被描述为更偏交易仓位。

  • Thread Guy 的媒体策略,是培育社区,制造值得剪辑传播的时刻,并始终感谢观众选择观看直播,而不是把时间花在其他事情上。线下见面会吸引 200–300 人,他们希望找到同样关心投资的同伴。在秘密筹备约 1 年后,他暗示正在打造一个更大的项目,核心是保护“我品牌的处女膜”,但在正式发布前拒绝宣布更多细节。

完整逐字稿
Thread Guy

Yo, yo, yo. What’s up, man? How are you?

Amit Kukreja

What’s up, man? How are you, bro? I’m good, man. I’m excited to be on the show. I mentioned I was going to be on an hour ago, and everyone was like, “Do you know the red guy?” I was like, “Well, I guess I do now.”

Thread Guy

Look, I was telling our chat—you don’t know yet, but we have a lot of crossover. I told everyone I wasn’t going to glaze, but I’ve got to be completely honest. I’m a daily morning watcher. I started at 3:30 in the afternoon, so my morning tweet dump—I’m on “Wake Your Ass Up with the…” I hate to be that guy, but I—

Amit Kukreja

I love it. I love—

Thread Guy

I’ve got the barrel, but I’ll give you some quick context on us, because you’re probably talking to a very similar audience. I run a daily livestream, and we’re mostly U.S.-based traders. It was heavily crypto-focused, but post-10/10, the markets got boring. I still love crypto and love Bitcoin, but the market is slow, so we started talking about a lot of equities, stocks, and AI.

For the last 45–60 days, all we’ve been talking about is the Iran conflict, the Middle East, and the oil trade. I’ve got the barrel in the back, which you can see. Is that a real barrel for the oil?

Amit Kukreja

There’s nothing in it. Maybe one day, but it’s getting a little expensive to keep oil in the house.

Thread Guy

We cover a lot of similar things, and I’m a fan of yours. Welcome, man. I appreciate you coming.

Amit Kukreja

Hey, man. I’m happy to be on. I know there’s some overlap. I think crypto is kind of your bread and butter, right? That’s your core community, and obviously crypto has been a little dicey. The stock market has been dicey over the past couple of months, but there are so many different stocks to talk about that it provides content and updates.

There are also narratives that affect the stock market, with Jay Powell, the Fed, the war, and all of it. Technology, crypto, stocks—it all comes together. It’s a super fun time to be covering it.

Thread Guy

One of the things about crypto—we’ll talk about it—is that I like that you like crypto, at least enough to give it a shout-out every day on the Robinhood BTC price. We do a ton of narrative trading. You know how crypto is: a lack of fundamentals and a lot of other things. You do some of that momentum trading, but you’re also going really deep into the fundamentals of a lot of these companies, earnings reports, filings, and things like that.

I’ll skip a lot of your background, but I was watching an interview you did with the Wolf guys this morning. You gave a lot of your lore and a pretty sick come-up story. I’m curious about the early Palantir content that you were making. Was there a specific video, tweet, thread, or article you put out that led to your pop? Was there a blow-off-the-top moment? I mean, you have 10K live every morning. It’s kind of insane.

Amit Kukreja

I think with Palantir, I made an investment of around $25,000 in late November, and I made one video. I’d been trying YouTube for a long time—tech, business, just random stuff. You’re a kid, you’re putting it out there, seeing what happens. You don’t know anything about the algorithm or how to build a community.

I’ve always loved the stock market. COVID obviously got me into learning about stocks, and I graduated college in 2020. The video was called “I Bought $25,000 of Palantir.” That was the title. I thought, “Maybe that’s a clickable title. Maybe people are interested in this PLTR thing.”

I bought it without really understanding what I had bought because I was young and dumb, but I had somewhat of a thesis—a very immature thesis, but there was a thesis. I laid out my thesis, and that video did about 7,000 views in a day. I had never had 7,000 people click on something of mine in a day.

So I tried to analyze why people clicked on it. Was it a Dogecoin that went from 10 cents to 80 cents, and people were just in it for the moment? No, because it was actually down, or getting ready to go down, at the time. Was it just a meme stock? Palantir wasn’t really a meme stock, although maybe people thought of it that way in those early days. There was a real company working with the U.S. Department of Defense. There was something there.

I think one of the greatest moments of my life—and I say this with zero level of hesitancy in my voice—was recognizing that there was a subset of people on the planet who, for some reason, maybe a supernatural reason, cared about this company called Palantir. Whether it was the name, the CEO with the hair, the aura of it, or the spooky, mysterious vibe, there was something that got people to care about it. It got me to care. It got me to invest in it.

I decided at that moment that I was going to double down and try to figure out as much as I could about the company. I said I was going to use my communication skills from my debate background, which we can talk about, and my natural creativity around how to build and structure arguments. That’s essentially what debate was: making an argument.

I was going to turn those two skills into YouTube videos and analyze this company in every way that I could. I wasn’t prepared for a 90% drawdown, but that drawdown led me to make more videos because I was down half my net worth at that point. I figured I might as well learn even more about it, and it led to a community forming because all I did was make videos about it. Now we’re here today.

Thread Guy

It’s a sick story, and it obviously was a crazy trade for you. I don’t mean to start the stream this way, but you binked Palantir and you binked Robinhood. What’s your worst trade that you’ve been publicly super excited about?

Amit Kukreja

I don’t know if it was super public because, at the time, I didn’t have a YouTube brand, but there was a ticker called PPBT, Purple Biotech. I was 21 years old. I thought this company was going to cure every disease possible, and I put my whole net worth into it, which at the time was $25,000.

I invested in Palantir 2 years later, with roughly the same $25,000, because I had lost the original $25,000 when this thing blew up. They had about 5 reverse splits. I was like, “What’s a reverse split? My 30,000 shares went to 3,000. What just happened?” I was like, “Is that good? Is that bad?” It felt kind of bad.

In terms of public stuff, I lost some money on PayPal back in December 2023. Grab has been the next big play I’ve been saying can do very well. I think that stock should be closer to 7.50. I called it at 4.50, and right now it’s at 3.90. It hasn’t really had the move I expected, but it’s also only been a year and a half, and I tend to give these theses 2–3 years to play out.

We’re so enamored by the bull market having stocks go up 300% in a day, like Old Birds, but sometimes a thesis like Palantir and Robinhood takes 2½ years to play out. Those are some of my losses.

Thread Guy

This is something I struggle with, especially with some of the crypto stuff. For a lot of things I trade, I’m not buying for 2 or 3 years. I’ll trade it. I’m long Hims right now, and it’s totally momentum trading. We’ll talk about Hims a little bit. I take finasteride, so I have a vested interest in it doing well and being legitimate.

Something I always struggle with, and think a lot about on the contrarian side, is what I’m comfortable posting as far as positioning and what I’m not comfortable posting. When you bank Palantir and Robinhood, you have a lot of emotion, a lot of attention, and people are hyped about your next call.

How do you navigate what you want to share as far as “I’m in this” and “I’m not,” or “I like this stock” and “I don’t like this stock”? How do you split the difference?

Amit Kukreja

That’s a hell of a question, and I think it’s a very important, relevant question that gets to the heart of what we’re doing here. You’re right: Palantir and Robinhood worked. The next big call I had was Grab. Grab hasn’t worked yet, and that creates a psychological component. You get 2 in a row, and you’re going for the hat trick. The hat trick isn’t working, and now you’re afraid to really call the next one.

I bought Oracle at 130, and it’s at 170. That’s great, and it feels good, but you’re not having a “I’m pounding the table on Oracle” moment because it’s a $350 billion company. It’s not unknown that Oracle is here. Same with Nvidia—I bought Nvidia at 90, but a lot of people bought Nvidia at 90 during the AMC craze.

You get credit for the names that are unknown and that you find. It’s very hard to find them. I tell myself, “Look, you got 2. It’s really hard to get 2 that went from 7 to 150 in 2½ years, but you got those. You need to take those skills and try to find the next one.”

Then, if the next one doesn’t do that in 2½ years, we have to recognize that’s not normal.

Thread Guy

That is normal for a stock—not to 20X in 2 years—even if the expectation is that you'll find it. I think a lot of people who find multiple winners in a row are finding very, very small companies. Those companies are sub-$1 billion in market cap, and as you said, there are a lot of people watching every morning.

If I say I like something that's worth $100 million, and I have 100,000 shares, a lot of people who trust me and trust my approach to the market might say, “If Amit likes it, I would like it.” That thing pumps, or it could pump if I were to do that. I've actively chosen not to do that because I think that's a really shitty way of being a market participant. First of all, it's illegal—pumping and dumping. This shit is just not the brand that I want to build.

Amit Kukreja

Messy. It's very messy. You know, in the crypto world, we've already seen the pump-and-dumps with the meme coins, so it's scary for me to do that. That means I spend a lot of time doing due diligence.

To your question, Zeta was another name that I called at, I think, $18. I put out my due diligence, did a whole deep dive, bought it, and liked it. It went to $25, went down to $14 in the SAS sell-off, and now it's back to around $18, kind of where I called it.

I'm trying to balance the level of influence I have with the level of conviction I have on a name. I don't think I've had a name since Palantir, Robinhood, and Grab—Grab being the one that hasn't really worked out yet—where I'm pounding the table.

It got to the point where, on Sunday night, I mentioned a software stock that I was interested in. I hadn't even really started due diligence; I had read a couple of articles. Then I'm getting messages today from people saying, “Did you buy it yet? Did you buy it yet? I'm in.” I'm like, “I didn't even put out a thesis. There's not even a one-pager.”

The very fact that I say a name, given that there are so many people watching, can influence people to get into it. I really hate it if someone's into it and I'm not even into it, but I just mentioned it because I mention a lot of stocks and they take a position. So I take the responsibility very seriously.

I'm the same way about this. We don't have to mention any names, but there are definitely some popular TradFi accounts on Twitter recently that have had some four-figure and five-figure percentage P&Ls over the last couple of months on some very low-cap names.

A lot of respect to them, because the research these people are doing is very difficult. It's not easy. One hundred percent.

Thread Guy

The level of companies they're choosing—OTC, all this stuff—if there's only a couple thousand people trading it and only a couple million shares outstanding, it's going to go up if people buy it.

Before we get into some individual names, I want to talk about the general markets right now. I know you love Robinhood—no hoodie on—but the pattern day trader requirement was just axed, which I think is part of the reason Robinhood is trading around $87 or $88. It traded really well.

You mentioned that when you started getting into stocks, it was right around 2020. I graduated high school in 2020, so I'm basically from the same era. I started paying attention to the markets then. You don't have a ton of history predating 2020, but I'm curious about your general thought process on how the rise of retail traders and zero-day options—and we'll talk about crypto perps in a little bit as well—has evolved the way these markets and individual names move, trade, carry momentum, and evolve in general.

Amit Kukreja

It's a whole new world. It really is. This is a fascinating topic, and there is a lot of science and art to how this is playing out.

There have always been cults around stocks. The problem is that there have never been tens and tens and tens of millions of people caring about stocks. They care about pop culture, they care about sports—you've got many cult sports—but COVID created the foundation for everyone to say, “I have stimulus money and I'm bored.” Then you saw GameStop and AMC, and that set the foundation for people to care about the stock market.

Tesla was the first original cult in terms of retail momentum. I think the next big one, quite frankly, after Tesla was Palantir. To have a stock do what it did as a boring B2B enterprise SaaS company—you don't get that type of multiple. Elon gets an Elon premium because he's freaking Elon. You don't get that type of multiple on a B2B SaaS AI company unless there's something about you that's interesting.

What's really interesting about Palantir is that retail loaded up under $20. Once the company started showing its growth, institutions had to buy in. Then you had S&P inclusion, Nasdaq inclusion, and all these TradFi things that happen in the stock market when a stock gets included in an index.

All these retail guys are like, “I bought this at $6, and now the guy who runs a $10 billion fund is being forced to buy it at $40. Why would I sell?” That's pretty funny. That guy has to buy my shares at these levels, or he has to buy someone else's shares, which just pumps up the price even more.

It's been absolutely crazy, and I think the democratization of information has really catalyzed it. I think I'm a case study of it. I was a 22-year-old kid who had posted 3,000 videos and—I don't want to count how many tweets—dedicated to Palantir. A lot of people saw those videos and tweets, and they took a chance on it. Thankfully, I bet my reputation on it, and it ended up being right.

A lot of people have taken that route over the past couple of years. I have friends who called Rocket Lab at $4 and SoFi at $5. What's the other big one that has exploded recently? Navitas—people called it at $10 or $20. You're just seeing a lot of retail. ASTS was at $2, and now it's at $80. I think retail is a big force.

Thread Guy

Do you think you'll ever be able to repeat the Palantir trade?

Amit Kukreja

In terms of the actual movement of the stock, or in terms of the community and the sort of journey it created?

Thread Guy

I sort of meant it in terms of the movement, but being able to be that early to a cultural movement again—whether it happened accidentally, whether people stumbled into it, or whether it happened intentionally. It has been transformative. I mean, hot girls are rocking the Palantir merch. It's become a cult; you've got to sign the back of it. It's become a cultural “hot girls for Palantir” force, if you will.

Amit Kukreja

I will say this: Palantir was just unbelievable. I didn't expect Robinhood to do what it did. We can talk about the origin stories of that, but with Palantir, I think it was me and a couple of people who really led the cult and led the movement of the content.

With Robinhood, it was me and 3 other people. There really wasn't anyone else, because everyone hated Robinhood after GameStop. You really had to look past that to see what was happening.

I will say it is a high that I cannot describe to be on an island, say that you like a stock, and watch the stock go up and up and up and up. People who are buying at levels that are already double, triple, or quadruple the level you bought at are making money because the stock is still going up, and they're attributing all of that momentum and all of those gains to you.

You don't deserve it, but you're the guy on the island who called it when no one else did, and everyone wants to give you that praise. I'm looking for that feeling again. To answer your question, I hope I can find it again one day. I don't know if I can, but it has been one of the greatest feelings of my entire life, and I don't take it for granted. It's also freaking hard to find that name and be that movement.

I love this retail-trading topic. Your 10/10 happens, and it's basically the crypto 9/11. I'm sitting here thinking, “All right, what are we going to do now?” I'm like, “Fuck it. Stocks are trading well. Let's pay attention to some stocks.”

I start posting a lot on Twitter that I'm looking at stocks. We're covering tickers in the morning or during market close, and a lot of the veteran crypto guys come out and say, “You crypto kids can never understand financials. You can't trade stocks.”

I'm starting to think to myself, “I actually think we can in some categories,” because the thing crypto traders are innately best at is understanding memetics, understanding narrative, and understanding attention. Palantir trades at a 150 P/E—something ridiculous. Not to say they don't have these massive government contracts, but what are a lot of these movements? They're movements.

There's an article—I glaze this kid all the time—but there's a guy on Twitter called Base 16Z, and he wrote an article called “Megachurch Time.” In a footnote, he wrote this little excerpt:

“Not just American Eagle, which is the Sydney Sweeney trade”—that's when I realized I thought we could do the stock thing—“but all my best trades this year. I believe an underexploited edge in today's memetic financial markets is growth investing in some narrative that will become the note of the internet that day.”

100%. The mistake I've made this year—I have made a mistake in terms of my portfolio—is not realizing you need to be in the themes that are going to move no matter if Iran launches a nuke. These are themes that are going to move. Memory was one of those themes, and data centers was one of those themes.

I thought I'd add exposure to it through Nvidia, which I do, and it's done well, but Nvidia's $5 trillion. It's hard for it to go to $10 trillion. But you have stocks that are $60 billion; they can get to $120 billion. It's possible. That's the mistake I made, and hopefully I can try to see it and identify more of these names.

A lot of them have run already, but if this AI thing is unlimited, then they're probably going to keep running. So, to your point, yeah, the cool thing about crypto guys is you can spot momentum. If you saw momentum in quantum, nuclear, space, data centers, memory, or AI in general, you were able to play the theme.

The Magnificent Seven back in 2023 were deeply undervalued, but ChatGPT changed the world, and you got to see that Gemini was going to happen and Meta was going to start using this stuff. Playing the theme is how you win, and it's very hard for people to find the theme.

Thread Guy

One of my favorite times watching you was during the silver and gold just-parabolic-everything-trades-like-crypto period. Silver trades like a meme coin; oil trades like a meme coin. You were beating your head against the wall, and you were like, “Man, I just don't think oil or silver is a hedge against anything.” Silver was trading like risk.

Do you think this trend also continues, where every commodity, every metal, everything has this crypto-like, blow-off-the-top, parabolic momentum? It feels like fundamentals or real-life use cases go out the window when people are like, “We're running silver now. We're doing silver now.” All of a sudden, it's the trade of the week. Does it make a new all-time high? Does it not? That's unclear, but it definitely became the trade of the week, of the month.

Amit Kukreja

So I think if you're long commodities like gold and silver, you can own them and not worry about it for the next 20 years, right? Because they will be relevant. But to your point, I got out of the commodities. I made about 10% on a copper trade, and I got out the day that silver had its 30% decline.

I was still somewhat up on my options, and I was just like, “I'm done with this.” The reason I'm done is I saw the copper chart, and it was following silver. I was like, “Wait a second. I thought there was a fundamental thesis—the data centers.” Then I was like, “It's just following. It's just being the altcoin to Bitcoin or Ethereum.” I was like, “I'm not in this for an altcoin. I thought there was a thesis here.”

The thesis is being plagued by the algos that are trading it. So, yeah, it is incredible to see the amount of people, because we were starting to get bearish around January and February, and still you had people trading silver and gold like it was a meme stock.

I just think this goes to a deeper question, which I'm sure you've read some of this literature around: financial nihilism. The idea is that people feel like they can't make it in life because their job doesn't pay enough, the cost of living is going up, and inflation is going up.

Men feel like they need to really impress women, and they need to make a lot of money. There's a lot of depression if they're not making enough money because women have so many options. So it's like, “[Expletive] it. I'm going to go gamble on the Knicks tonight. I'm going to go buy this meme coin. Trump just said he's launching me. I hope Trump's right. I'm going to bet on MAGA here.”

You're taking more and more risk as a society, and I don't know if it's good or bad, but it is leading to a lot more [expletive], like silver going up or down 30% in a day. It's a very thematic part of the decade, the post-COVID era.

Thread Guy

Something we talk about all the time—and I believe that one of the ways out is to figure out how to trade and how to make money in these markets. You are, at least in my head, very pointed toward retail traders, right? You have a lot of experienced people who watch you, and you have a lot of new people who find you, learn how to trade through you, discover what options are, and discover what stocks are through you.

In this nihilism era, do you think new traders can actually have an edge in these markets and outperform the S&P? If someone new finds Amit investing on YouTube streams, do you actually think it's a good idea for them to be like, “I'm going to learn. He did it with Palantir. He did it with HOOD. I think learning how to trade will be a beneficial skill to my future. Maybe not my full-time occupation. I'll still keep my job, but I should be stock-picking or trading individual names rather than just buying indexes.”

Amit Kukreja

Yeah, absolutely. Someone who discovers finance media online—and not just me either; there are so many great accounts out there doing their due diligence—absolutely can change their financial future by seriously taking a look at that due diligence, trying to keep up with the markets, and either actively trading or picking stocks.

More people don't actively trade; more people pick a stock, and stock-picking is a very difficult skill. The S&P is really hard to beat, but a lot of people beat the S&P last year.

Thread Guy

Yeah, in retail. Doing it consistently is tough because it does require active monitoring of a portfolio. You have to monitor the situation of your portfolio.

Amit Kukreja

To your point, it's difficult, but I think it is possible. I don't think you're selling a fake dream, like, “Oh, you can become rich.” It's like, “No, no. You can legitimately buy Rocket Lab at $20, and then it goes to $70, and you can fund your child's tuition.”

However, it does require a level of individual autonomy and agency around believing you have control over your financial future, and then actively, every day, paying attention to see what the opportunities are. That's why I think people join the market open, right? Because it's entertainment to an extent, but it's also a sport: How can I listen to what this guy is talking about, and hopefully he's talking about it in a way that conglomerates a lot of information that I can then digest, make my own decisions based on that analysis, and make more money?

I think it's possible. I think it's entertaining for people to try. It's better than them watching sports all day, even if it is just a sport of investing. But it is hard to beat the S&P.

Thread Guy

Trading is a sport is my favorite framing. It's the modern-day spectacle. I think the biggest trade has already happened, at least on X, on Twitter. I spend all day on Twitter. The best traders are the biggest celebrities. Those are the people you care the most about.

Look at why people show up to your stream every day. It is absolutely a spectacle. We can pivot into some individual names here as a bridge question on retail trading. How responsible is Robinhood specifically for this retail boom?

Amit Kukreja

I would say Robinhood is probably 99.3% responsible for it. When you've used the product and you get your friends to use the product—and all my family uses the product—it's not easy to get someone to open a Schwab or Fidelity account and actively enjoy trading.

Has Robinhood gamified it? Yeah, but that's the point. It needs to feel exciting for people to care about financial markets. Financial markets are not that interesting unless you make them interesting. So I have zero problem with what Robinhood has done. They've obviously gotten a lot of flak for it, but more money in the market, more liquidity—that's a good thing, not a bad thing.

I think Robinhood is pretty much the number one reason for that.

Thread Guy

It was funny. You see Robinhood get flak for confetti and gamifying the experience, and then you look at—first of all, you pull up an online casino, which is being pushed in every single commercial break: FanDuel, PrizePicks, whatever. It's gamified gambling everywhere in the world. Robinhood gets [expletive] for it.

I know Robinhood has some prior issues with the GME stuff. It's not even really worth going into all that, but it is an incredible product.

The thing that's interesting about Robinhood is that it feels like every platform right now is going in a similar direction. Everybody wants to be a bank. Everybody wants to offer financial services. Everybody wants to be an exchange—a way for you to trade, store your money, and earn yield on your money.

Everyone is converging on this similar idea that maybe Robinhood was first to, or popularized, in the 2020s. Every wallet is an exchange. Every exchange is a wallet. Both of them offer yield for keeping your money there. How does Robinhood win in the 10-year, 20-year, decade thesis from here?

Amit Kukreja

I think what Robinhood is going to have to do is capture every part of your financial experience, not just trading. The reason the stock got hit so badly over the past couple of weeks is because trading volumes went down. There was a reason for that, which is this war. But the point is, if people aren't trading, they don't make money.

And I think Vlad knows that is the liability that they have, which is why they're getting into banking and tokenization, and they're trying to do more stuff with crypto as an infrastructure play versus just the trading play. So, yeah, they've got to be able to figure out your credit card, your loan, your mortgage. How do we provide that to you as Robinhood? And then how does that continue to get you to trade as well?

And I think they're doing a pretty good job at it. It just takes time. They have a massive TAM. I do think they will be a trillion-dollar company. I know that's crazy. I really do think the level of innovation that I've spoken to Vlad enough and spoken to the employees enough where I can confidently say, “These people work 12 to 15 hours a day.”

Thread Guy

Like, it's gross. I would never want to work there because of how intense the work culture is. If I work there, I can't talk about the stock anymore. But the level of intensity that Vlad has—I mean, I'll tell you a story.

Vlad, I was in his office after their Q1 of last year. We were doing a little interview with him, and he gave me a gavel as a gift. I gave him a little cowbell; he gave me a gavel. The point of the gavel was that in meetings, he will slam the gavel when he's talking to a product manager, an engineer, or another C-suite executive if he thinks that people aren't hitting their goals.

So, if you're responsible for the Robinhood Gold subscriber count—like, I guess you're the GM of Robinhood Gold—and you're responsible for subscribers going up, if they needed to add 100,000 subscribers that quarter and you're in the meeting and you added 95,000, he will slam the gavel and be like, “Get your shit together. Do better.”

And so, when I heard that story and he gave me the gavel, TSA took it from me.

Thread Guy

Did he give it to you afterward?

Amit Kukreja

He gave it to me, and then TSA took it when I was coming back from California because they thought I was going to kill the pilot with the gavel—this plastic shit gavel. And I tried to tell the guy, “I met the CEO of a special company. He gave it to me.” The TSA guy was like, “Who's the company?” I was like, “Robinhood.” The guy was like, “Robinhood? Fuck them. They didn't let me sell my GameStop.” And I was like, “Oh my goodness, bro. I can't believe this is happening.”

That is—I cannot make that story up. That's what happened, and I lost the gavel. I had to tell Vlad, and I didn't tell him about the GameStop part. I just told him about TSA. I didn't want to—

Yeah, I think it was probably beating Warren, too. Game Warren.

By the way, I couldn't believe that you weren't sponsored by Robinhood or Palantir. I think it's common knowledge—you talk about it a lot. I'm happy you brought this up.

Amit Kukreja

I've never been sponsored by a single company, ever. I've never taken money from a single company. Palantir doesn't even pay for my flights when I go to AIPCon or my hotel. Everything is on my dime.

Thread Guy

They pay for that merch, though.

Amit Kukreja

No, I did. That $120? No, I paid for it. I ordered everything myself.

Thread Guy

I ordered that thing I unboxed. It was $150. I paid for that shit.

Amit Kukreja

I got a couple of hats for free and stuff like that. But every merch drop, I put in my credit card and I buy that shit outright. I also want to support it because Ilia knows, you know, my guy.

But they don't pay me. They've never paid me. And I've kept a very strict line behind my integrity. I know people perceive it as being paid, but I'm being paid if the stock goes up and I'm promoting the stock. I'm promoting the company, but the company's doing well enough for me to then talk about the stock. That's how the thesis plays out.

Now, some of these other people out there—and I've heard some stories about the amount of money they've been given or shares they've been given under the table to pump this—it is really ugly and shady out there.

Thread Guy

Yeah, I never want to be associated with that. I've had a C-suite executive call my personal phone and say, “Amit, we're ready to give you a lot of shares. Can you do for us what you did for Palantir?” And I was like, “No.” Palantir was this organic journey. I'm not going to manufacture my excitement over your stock when there's nothing to be excited about.

It's a dirty game, and I kind of pride myself on being able to say I've never taken a penny from any company.

That's awesome. Also, it's funny to hear you say “shares.” I'm used to coins under the table, like shares under the table.

Amit Kukreja

It's funny to hear that.

On Robinhood to a trillion, they make more money if more people are trading, and they make less money if fewer people are trading. So, to get to a trillion dollars, they need substantially more people trading. Where does the next marginal trader come from?

Thread Guy

Well, you know, these Trump Accounts, I think, are really important. I think they're setting the foundation for traders going into the next 2 decades because each kid that's born in America now gets $1,000 tracking the S&P in their account. Robinhood is going to get a lot of those accounts. That's another big catalyst for growing their AUM.

I think they get more traders by more people wanting to be interested in the financial markets. It's just that simple. If you get into finance, you have a couple thousand bucks, you're new, you care about becoming an entrepreneur, becoming—taking control of your financial destiny—you eventually find Robinhood.

There are competitors, but Robinhood is the one that ends up finding your attention. It's like if you try to build a startup, you are going to find tech VCs on Twitter because that's where all the information is if you want to get inundated on how to—

Amit Kukreja

Yeah, if you care about crypto, you're going to find Ansem, right? You will find him. Or you're going to find Thread Guy. You find these people that care because you're curious, and Robinhood is one of those platforms.

So, I think they just need to make sure capitalism does not collapse, and they need to make sure that AI does not demolish the incentive that people have, sociologically, to feel bullish about the idea of progressing inside of an economically mobile society. Because then people will find stocks.

But if people have that sentiment taken away, they're not going to find stocks, crypto, real estate, any of this.

Thread Guy

How much do you doom and gloom over that? Late-stage capitalism, the game is rigged, you can't actually hit the upper-K-shape in the economy, why even trade when everyone is against me—sort of nihilistic doom and gloom?

Amit Kukreja

I just don't spend enough time on it because I work a lot every day. And I think that answer's emblematic of the only way to not worry about it: you've got to fucking work. That's it. You just have to, right?

You do your stream every day for 3 hours. You're there. You're doing it. You don't care what anyone thinks. You're just doing it because you know this is what's necessary to grow and build a brand and gain momentum.

I used to stream when there were 10 people there, and I would be as excited as I am with 10,000. You just have to go.

I think there is a lack of accountability, but also a lack of optimism—not because the world is against you, which in many cases it feels like the world is definitely against you, but also because sometimes people just don't have the natural inclination to try.

And when I was making YouTube videos and no one was watching, at least I was trying. I've always tried. I've always fucking tried. My mom gave me my creativity; my dad gave me my work ethic. My dad is not creative, but he gave me the work ethic. My mom is really creative.

Thread Guy

I work hard.

Amit Kukreja

No, she works hard, but she doesn't know anything about business. She knows nothing about signing contracts and NDAs and all this. My dad knows a lot about that.

So, I got a lot of creative energy from her. My dad ran a liquor store for 20 years. He was basically gone for 15 hours a day. I got that work ethic from him.

And then I put it together to say, “I want to do something different in my life. I don't want to go corporate.” A lot of my friends went to JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, and I just really rejected that mindset. And so I ended up buying YouTube.

The other thing that's really important about this is recognizing your mortality. I don't talk about it too much, but the idea of death is a very big motivator for me.

I can't explain why. I've always been fascinated with the concept that we will all be dead one day. It's very morbid to bring up, but that is one thing that really gets me off my ass every morning and says, “The clock's running out. You have to go for it.”

Thread Guy

Then my 3 hours a day feel so lousy now compared to—

Amit Kukreja

Well, you're doing something. We're working. You're working. That's what matters.

Thread Guy

That was beautiful. I'm going to hit you with the 180 pivot, but back to the Robinhood topic. And also on the topic of Robinhood having a ton of competition, crypto's had a tough year—a really tough couple of years.

I think it got really overshadowed with the meme-ification of everything. And instead of talking about DeFi or these innovative protocols, people were talking about Far Coin, which I know you're a big advocate—not advocate. It gets referenced in your stream.

Amit Kukreja

Indeed. It does indeed.

Thread Guy

I think the golden child of crypto in 2024 has been the perpetual futures market, and Hyperliquid's 24/7 perps have been a really interesting one. I don't know how familiar you are with it, but I think, really, over the silver boom, over the Middle East conflict, right? It was February 28th, I think—a Friday night or really early Saturday morning—when the U.S. and Israel struck Iran.

Markets are closed. Oil goes absolutely parabolic, and about $2 billion of price discovery happened on Hyperliquid, which was pretty wild to see. I think it had sort of been a little gimmicky crypto product—the perp, whatever—up until the silver move, up until this oil moment. I'm curious if you've thought at all, talked about, or learned at all about Hyperliquid and the idea of 24/7 on-chain perps.

Amit Kukreja

So, I have tried to understand this market over the past couple of months, and it is incredibly fascinating. The idea that you could get exposure to an asset class via these crypto derivative contracts without being able to trade the asset is fascinating. I think I saw a tweet today from some guy who made a ton of money on Anthropic perps, which, to my understanding, don't actually hold Anthropic stock, but are pegged via the derivative contract to Anthropic. I don't know how they're deriving the price, but they're doing it in some way, which allows you to, at the end of the day, if the price goes up or down, trade it. That's what allows you to make money.

And there's liquidity in that market via the innovations of Hyperliquid. So, I think it's very exciting. I think it's very important. I think Robinhood, with tokenization, is trying to attack that perpetual futures market, but they're still custodying the shares one-to-one by actually having an equity stake. They just did Robinhood Ventures, which is like the TradFi version of getting a stake in that stuff.

The problem with the crypto perp stuff is the reason the 9/11 happened on 10/10 is over-leverage, right? I have a friend personally who lost a lot of money—like, a lot of money—there.

Thread Guy

Yeah, likewise. And it's very scary when the leverage gets that high. So, I think the innovation is incredible, and you're probably going to get something like that in the stock market. We already have 24/7 trading, where you're buying a stock at 9:00 p.m. and it goes through a middleman that gets you a version of a share of that stock, but it's not really T+1 settled yet. So, there are versions of that in TradFi, but the leverage is what scares me in perps.

Also, the pre-market perps—I don't know too much about those. The pre-IPO markets—Eventuals is a company that does it through Hyperliquid. It's very interesting. I don't know too much about the pre-market stuff, but perps are an interesting vehicle because people want leverage, right? What percentage of options trading is zero-DTE? It's really high, right? 60%, 70%, or something like that. People want leverage, and it gives you a very simple way to go long or short and hold for an undecided amount of time, versus options contracts, which are very complex.

I would wonder how many people who trade options actually understand the Greeks and theta, and exactly what the convexity of what they're trading underneath is. And so, I think that you're right: everything is going to go 24/5. Everything is probably going to go 24/7 at some point in the near future. It's sick to hear that you're pretty tapped in, at least at a high level, to the Hyperliquid perps. I think it's cool, bro. Crypto's awesome.

In 2022 and 2023, I didn't understand why crypto was a thing, and then I spent, I think, 5 months watching every Michael Saylor interview I could just to get orange-pilled, just to understand why Bitcoin matters. It really converted me to thinking, you know, we're going to inflate ourselves and debase our currency for the next—forget 100 years—thousands of years. There is no—if Elon and DOGE couldn't fix the problem, there's no way we're going to cut off welfare. There has to be a solution to infinite money printing.

I hope the solution just is the perception of money still being valuable because of the military and the mighty strength of the U.S. is what keeps us going. But eventually, if it doesn't, you need a countercyclical hedge, and that ends up being Bitcoin. The annoying thing is that crypto got wrecked when we printed the most money in the past year. So, I'm curious about your take: why didn't crypto end up getting the bid, and why did it go to gold and silver? Do you think the bid actually ends up coming back?

Amit Kukreja

I think crypto has really struggled to evolve itself into an investable asset outside of a couple spots. And I think altcoins generally have this weird overhang problem: what are you buying? Is it equity? Is it a meme coin? Is it something in between? Hyperliquid solved this one by making $1 billion a year and putting all of its revenue back into buying the coin. So, you're not technically buying equity, but you're buying an asset that they have more of than anyone and that goes up only. I think the rest of crypto outside of BTC has found itself stuck in this middle ground.

People kind of want meme coins, but we know what meme coins are. We have the same thing in stocks. Basically, people kind of want alts, but then you run into this fragmentation problem. Is it equity? Is it not? Who owns the assets—the labs, the entity? You sort of get this weird middle ground with an overlying meta of, I think, nihilism. And so, I think people got very frustrated with crypto.

The market was basically at—Bitcoin was at $126K, all-time highs, right before 10/10. Altcoins were in the gutter. And then you get this mass wipeout liquidation across the board. I think it's actually left crypto in a unique spot, right? On the run-up, you get all these wannabe Michael Saylors, right? These dots that are overleveraging with money they don't have, buying the pico, pico, pico top. And the whole thing is just inflated on air through a lot of the run-up. And so, you sort of pull forward future buyers to buy right now.

Then when things go in that direction, they're not there to sort of plunge-protect, and you get this cascading liquidation effect. But I actually think crypto right now stands in an interesting spot. There's been a sentiment wipeout. There's been a price wipeout. And all things considered, BTC has traded decently since February 28th, when the war started.

Now we are stuck with a Michael Saylor situation. He owns, like, 4.34% of BTC. The whole discussion is, when's he buying and how is it going to end? We're pumping because he's buying. We're not pumping because we hate him. And what is he going to do with it? It's stuck somewhere between those ideas.

But I think there's been a couple spots: BTC, obviously; Hyperliquid with perps; and then I think the privacy narrative. Monero, XMR, is popular. Zcash is another one that's popular, where privacy is probably obviously going to be increasingly important in the future, and crypto is uniquely positioned to offer a private-by-nature asset. And so, despite the carnage, crypto has carved out a couple of real use cases.

Thread Guy

That's awesome. That's awesome. Bitcoin rocks. People will always trade meme coins. The casino never closes. It's carved out, I think, a real use case. And then, obviously, tokenization, right? Everyone is pushing this tokenization narrative really, really hard. So, it's definitely carved out and made itself, I think, a real, sustainable player despite the most brutal wipeout you could have offered.

Do you think morale in the overall industry has really been wrecked, or is there a catalyst or a rate-cutting cycle? What do you think brings it back to life?

Amit Kukreja

I honestly don't think it's been worse. FTX was pretty bad.

Thread Guy

Wait, then this is the worst it's ever been is what you're saying?

Amit Kukreja

You would make a pretty good argument, I think. It's very much a narrative-follows-price thing, right? And so, the difference between the FTX 2023 collapse and now is that at least there was a catalyst through FTX. The thing people will say is, “No one stopped believing in Bitcoin in 2023. They just ran out of money.” The biggest exchange blows up, everyone goes insolvent, no one can afford to get anything, mass liquidations.

The 2025 one was a little bit unique because there wasn't necessarily this FTX-level catalyst to destroy everything. There was sort of a spiritual capitulation. A lot of, “I wasted 5 years of my life. Meme coins suck. Fuck this thing,” because you have to imagine, right? You have 2 years of a bull market—really the back half of ’23 and then all of ’24—and the assets that are going the craziest are our meme coins, scam coins.

And so, your blow-off top is the president of the free world, basically day one in office, coming in and launching not one but two meme coins. Right? And so, you have to understand, too: before Trump comes into office, before Gary Gensler is out, the best talent in crypto is leaving the United States of America. Not because crypto is legal or illegal, but because it's this gray area. What's legal, what's not? They just—clarity, pun intended—refused to provide clarity. And so, the best talent in the world is like, “I don't even know if I can legally do this here. I'm out.”

Trump comes into office, Gensler's out, and on day one he launches a meme coin. Fuck it, anything goes. And so, there definitely was this spiritual anger built up, I think, toward crypto from some of the diehards, that it's the opposite of where you would want to see it go. But in my opinion, a lot of it's gotten wiped out. And then there are a couple of narratives to cling to that are very interesting.

One of the silver linings of Hyperliquid with 24/7 perps is that they offer tradable assets on everything. And so, a lot of crypto people are now like, “Okay, I have all this balance on-chain. I'm going to trade oil. I'm going to trade silver. I'm going to trade gold. I'm going to trade stocks.”

Thread Guy

I’m going to buy Robinhood. I’m going to buy Tesla. So, I think more than anything, we’re not going to see stocks versus crypto, but more so just modern finance. These things interweave and trade similarly. People who have crypto can trade stocks, and people who have stocks can trade crypto.

That’s really good because the crypto infrastructure gets people into trading other assets, but it’s built on crypto, which was the entire point of the blockchain, right? So, there’s sort of a convergence, if you will, across all markets, which is very interesting to watch.

Amit Kukreja

Speaking of markets, how have you been able to navigate the last 2 months, give or take, post-war? Where does trading or covering this market rank among the other unique time periods you’ve covered? Comparing this era of trading, I guess.

Thread Guy

Yeah, just in the last 2 months, what just happened? We’re back at all-time highs. The difference here is retail. I did a poll yesterday in my chat, and it was 33%, 33%, 33%: 33% of people said they bought heavily, 33% said they bought but didn’t buy heavily, and 33% said they didn’t buy.

This was a very difficult 2 months for me to navigate in terms of my audience because it was very political. People hate Trump, and people love Trump. You have people saying, “We’ve got to bomb Iran,” and you have people saying, “What the fuck are we doing with Iran?”

I’m trying to be as apolitical as possible because I don’t think people come to me for politics, and I don’t want to be the politics guy. But with my money, I also had to kind of vibe back and forth. There is pressure when I’m like, “Oh, I’m buying,” and you have 1,000 people saying, “You’re a fucking idiot. Why are you buying? This is crazy. How can you trust it?”

Then you have other moments where I’m a little bearish, I’m selling some stuff, and I’m maybe hedging, and people are like, “You don’t believe in America? This is the greatest economy.” It’s just crazy trying to actively trade. That’s why I’m not an active trader. I’m a content creator who’s trying to make some money with trading as well.

What I did was stay in the middle bucket. I bought, but I didn’t buy heavily. When Palantir collapsed, that was my main conviction, so I bought more. I really tried to buy as much as I could. I bought Rocket Lab and Oracle, but there were still moments where I could have bought more.

I liquidated the $35,000 I had in cash in my retirement account—not at the bottom, but the day after the bottom, the day after March 30, when the ceasefire was announced. I think it was Wednesday, 2 weeks ago. So, I got some bottoms, but I didn’t go crazy.

The most important thing about this is that last year, everyone went in during March and April because no one fucking believed the Trump tariff. I was buying the dip, and you were probably buying the dip. Everyone in retail was like, “Institutions are stupid. They think we’re actually going to tariff Zimbabwe by 100%? That’s not going to happen.”

So, we got handsomely rewarded after that 30% drawdown. This time, people legitimately thought this was not only going to be World War III, but that Trump had ruined the U.S. economy forever. So, a lot of people stayed on the sidelines.

Again, I was in the middle. I definitely deployed some because some things felt cheap, and that’s where conviction comes in, but it wasn’t like, “Oh my goodness, retail is undergoing a structural transition of wealth from institutions to retail.” Given the data over the past couple of days, retail is coming back now, and I hope this isn’t the top because that would suck. It’s just buying into momentum.

But if it’s buying into momentum and we’re going a lot higher, a lot of people didn’t get the bottom, but it’s still going to be a really good year for people.

Thread Guy

Yeah, you can't taco atoms, right? You can’t print oil, which made it very—I don’t know. It’s insane that we’re at all-time highs today. It felt like nothing really happened. We’re at all-time highs, there’s no ceasefire, and that’s wild. I stopped trading oil because it drove me crazy.

One of the last topics I want to ask you about is your due diligence strategy, which I think you have interesting insight into. It’s not something I’m the most familiar with—doing due diligence on the financials of companies.

What is your general thought process when you’re underwriting a stock or looking at what you want to invest in? You’re interested in a name—what do you do? I know it’s a packed question.

Amit Kukreja

I’m actually going to be doing a 5-hour stream just doing due diligence.

Thread Guy

Do this.

Amit Kukreja

Yeah, just doing due diligence. I’m not even really going to be talking to the chat. I’m literally just going to be in my zone, and people can observe how I’m doing it.

It involves becoming very intimate with a company. For me, that means getting my hands on as much information as possible and, quite frankly, becoming obsessed with it.

I’ll reference Robinhood. It was trading at $8, with a $6 billion market cap. Sorry, $6 billion in cash and a $2 billion enterprise value. The $2 billion was the market cap outside of cash, and $8 billion was the overall market cap. They had $6 billion in cash, so they had a $2 billion enterprise value.

Amit Kukreja

Got it.

Thread Guy

A little company was doing $1 billion in revenue, but it was trading at a $2 billion enterprise value. It didn’t make sense. So, that’s what got me into it.

Then I began the process: Who is Vlad? Why does he matter? All of his interviews—why does everyone hate this guy? What actually happened during GameStop? How does Robinhood make money?

I felt like I knew their SEC filings better than the CFO. I’m being hyperbolic, but I legitimately did because I put a lot of money into it. I wanted this to work. They were options, not even stocks. So, I was like, they better hit $25. When it’s at $8 and you’re hoping it goes to $25, that’s really scary. Will it actually happen?

It involves becoming incredibly diligent about what’s happening. I would break it up into 3 pillars.

Number 1: What’s the TAM? I spend a lot of time thinking about how big this company can become.

Number 2: Is the company profitable, or does it have a path to profitability? Particularly around operating margins, because I think if you can increase margins, you can increase your cash flow. If you increase your cash flow, you increase net income. Net income is where you get your multiple as a high-growth tech stock, and those are the ones I tend to like.

You really have to see where that path is going. Grab doesn’t have good margins, but I see that margin profile getting there, which is why I’m like, “Okay, I’m early, but I’m going to be right, hopefully.”

That sums up the financial element of it. Robinhood has $7 billion in cash relative to a $14 billion market cap, so it’s kind of similar to Hood from that perspective.

Then I look at the management team. I spend a lot of time trying to understand whether, if I’m making a big bet—not just a trade, not just “Oracle’s cheap, I’m buying it here”—I’m going to trust Vlad or Alex Karp with a lot of my money. Ultimately, they’re responsible for figuring it out. So, I spend time on that, and it’s obviously paid off.

Thread Guy

Yeah, I love the strategy as well. You have to take a different mindset. One of the things I had to educate myself on is what my time horizon is for a trade.

Am I in this because momentum is hot and I want to be in for a week? Am I trading the chart? Am I trading the company? Am I trading the ticker, or trading the coin, whatever it is?

With the Hyperliquid trade, it’s like, “Okay, cool. I think it perhaps can be worth X% of all trading volume.” You’re in this thing for the long haul. Or Hims just had a sick announcement from RFK, and whatever’s happening there, I’m in this for the next 48 hours. It’s a completely different process.

I think you covered it very well. What about your portfolio, and maybe more specifically, your current portfolio strategy? How often, when you’re buying a ticker, are you doing that versus, “Oracle looks cheap. I’m just going to take a stab at it”? Not to say you did this with Oracle, but I know you mentioned it. “I’m going to take a stab at Oracle because the chart looks good right here.”

Amit Kukreja

I’ve been trying to get better at technical analysis because I do think it’s a vital tool for being able to trade these assets.

I have cornerstones in my portfolio, which are the things you never sell—the things that should be the basis of multigenerational levels of wealth because you got them early and you’re holding them. Maybe you sell calls against them, maybe you hedge a little bit here and there, but with Robinhood, I have a massive Robinhood position.

I sold covered calls, which is a strategy for generating a lot of premium before the stock gets to a certain level. Robinhood was at $120, and I sold covered calls a year out at $100, so they were in the money. Robinhood went down to $60, and I was able to close those covered calls without feeling a lot of pain. If I didn’t have those, it would have decimated me.

That was just the responsible thing to do, but it ended up working out. Palantir, Robinhood, and Nvidia are kind of the cornerstones of the portfolio. Recently, over the past year, Amazon has entered the portfolio.

Meta has entered into the portfolio. Zeta has entered in. Oracle, which is a trade now, is kind of a thing that should be an investment. Nebius is in there. Amcor is in there. Grab is in there.

I've got some of these names where I'm just like, all right, I'm holding them. If they're not doing anything, I might sell some calls, trying to generate some premium off them. But the goal is for these names to compound.

And what I really want to do is start to find my next Hood, my next Palantir. But it requires a lot of due diligence to find undervalued and undiscovered gems. The problem is, in a bear market—which we didn't have, but things were pretty bad—why do I need to go find the next Palantir when Nvidia is at 160, trading at 18 times, when Microsoft is at 350? So I've doubled down on doing due diligence on the companies that we all pay attention to every day because they're cheap, and paying attention to the macro versus trying to find that hidden gem. That's what I'm doing right now.

Thread Guy

Your Nvidia trade was sick, by the way. I also know you added more relatively recently, but I heard you talk about the DeepSeek trade.

Amit Kukreja

Yeah, yeah. Well, I bought the first time at 139, and 2 days later, quite frankly, the DeepSeek thing happened. That's when I had to ask myself, okay, I don't know what I just bought. I really was new to Nvidia, but I was like, oh, no. I doubled down. Doubled down. Doubled down.

And then this year, I thought I was going to stop buying Nvidia. But then the earnings we just got—where you would think the stock should be almost $300, and they take it down to 170—I was like, okay, the Street's just wrong. The Street's just being emotional here. They're wrong.

So, yeah, it's been a good trade.

Thread Guy

I was streaming you streaming the earnings that day. It was sick.

Amit Kukreja

Really?

Thread Guy

Yeah, it was sick.

Amit Kukreja

The last thing I want to ask you, topically, is where does this finance-media thing go? I mean, bro, you have emotion. You have 10,000 people watching you live. I wonder how many people at a normal time on CNBC Business are watching, and then the quality of those people compared to the quality of who's watching yours. I don't have any math in front of me, but I think it's extremely competitive. If not, I would heavily lean on your pull, your emotion.

Where does this go? How does this evolve? Where do you see it playing out as an industry or a niche? And then for you specifically?

Thread Guy

Okay, so high-level, and then I'll get to me specifically. Industry-wide, I think it's going to keep growing. I think the TAM will accelerate for more and more people who care about this type of content. I'm seeing it in my numbers. I'm seeing it in the general zeitgeist of people who care about the stock market.

Even during the kind of pseudo-bear market we had, people are tuning into the stream because they care about what's happening. And then people want a community. The meetups that I've been doing across the country get 200 or 300 people. We come together and just talk stocks.

It's something where I realized people desperately are trying to find other people who care about investing as a niche, and it's very hard to do that. So they're using my stream and my community and my content as that go-to hub to connect with people.

In terms of the actual following from a media perspective, I think the reason I've grown is because I've stayed very humble and very grateful to the audience. Every day, I thank people for showing up. I never really try to get stuff out of people because I'm just so freaking grateful that someone's spending their time being with me.

I have people who send me videos of their kids ringing a bell, and it's so unbelievably gratifying to know that people are coming and enjoying being there—not because they're paying $50 a month for my exclusive picks. To me, I'm a creator before I am an entrepreneur.

I genuinely love creating. I think that's the reason it's working, because I love doing this every day. I love taking a chance on that cringe joke. I love using my debate skills to communicate this obscure idea about the equity markets that I can distill and make interesting. I love it so much.

I always wanted to be a musician and a performer. That didn't work out because I don't have the talent to sing or dance. So I think that dream is being manifested in this stock-market personality. Because I love the markets, that passion matches with the communication skills, and then it's able to manifest here.

So, I think for me, I'm going to keep doing it. I want to see how big it can get, and where the industry ultimately starts to go over the long term as more people care about the markets and more people want a person who's actually grateful for their time and attention—which I just think so many times creators aren't grateful for. You could be watching Netflix, but you're watching me, which means the world.

In terms of my goals specifically in the future—and I haven't even said this on my channel yet—I'm working on something. It's actually a pretty big freaking deal. I have not told anyone. I've not even told my mom or dad. I'm not going to say it here because I really don't believe in saying it before you do. It needs to become official official.

But for the past year or so, I've been working on something really important, and I am very excited. A lot of people ask me, “You've been doing media for 5 years. You have all these people. What is the point of it?” Everyone I meet wants to know, “What's the why?” And I'm like, it's built up to something.

Not taking sponsors, churning it out myself every day—it's built up to something. I'm very confident about the new thing that eventually will be launched, and hopefully it'll succeed. But time will tell.

I've been keeping the virginity of my brand in terms of it not being hurt by a call sheet logo in the bottom of my screen. They've offered a lot of money. I don't want to be a so I just want to be me. And one day, when I do release the big thing that I'm working on, hopefully it will be accepted by people, and hopefully it'll make a lot of money, too.

Amit Kukreja

Damn, good luck. I'm excited. We made the right person famous.

As a personal sign-off, it's the last question, and I'll let you go. At the top of the hour, I had basically 2 minutes over. I got to ask you for personal advice.

We do a similar thing. You've been streaming for longer than I have, but you've made an incredible name for yourself. I love the show, the community, the way you've curated it, the way you approach it. Very professional. I try to do the same thing—very intentional. I think intentional is a better word than professional.

Personal advice: how do you turn it from 300 or 400 people watching into 10,000 every day the way that you do it? How do you also maintain it for 5 years? That's a very underrated aspect, because you do it twice a day every single day. I stream once a day for 3 hours, so I know how the grind is, especially when markets are slow.

It could be a little more broad-stroke, for however familiar you are with me, but what do you think?

Thread Guy

I love that you have Polymarket in the back. So, fuck all of you.

Amit Kukreja

We love Polymarket, man. We love Polymarket. Shout-out to Jake Copeland, man.

Thread Guy

Well, you know, the important thing about this is that—and it's very important for people to understand—it is not sustainable to be a full-time content creator unless you have some support. And there is nothing wrong with having a brand or a sponsor or something, you know? There's no shade to any of these companies that sponsor people.

CNBC is freaking big in the billions of dollars from JPMorgan and J&J, selling you crazy cancer drugs in the middle of their business talk, right? So all of media is subsidized by advertising. That's inevitable. But if you don't want to go that route, then the question is just how do you survive on your own? And it's not easy, right?

It's something that all of us have to be able to get used to and be able to continue to grow. In terms of advice to you, I would say just keep doing what you're doing. Because the more and more you grow, first of all, the more your check size is going to get bigger from the sponsors, right? The more attention and reach you have, and the ability for you to have those viral moments and actually be able to tap into the zeitgeist of crypto, the more you're going to win.

Did you see the TBP acquisition by OpenAI?

Amit Kukreja

Of course, bro. Of course.

Thread Guy

You get more live viewers than TBPN. They don't get 70,000 live viewers. That was misreported. They get 70,000 impressions on their clips. X live viewers aren't real. When you have a live viewer, it's an impression that X turns into a live viewer. It is fake. I've done it.

I don't stream on X because I don't like seeing bots. It's all bots. So OpenAI obviously didn't buy them for their metrics. They bought them for essentially controlling the AI narrative, in my opinion. Those guys are awesome, but OpenAI bought them for a particular reason.

But for independent streamers like us that are growing and have a real community that's built, the only thing we can do to keep growing is nurture that community and make sure that community continues to grow.

So, to TBP’s point, they’ve made their clips go viral. The clips essentially are the product. For you, what you’ve already been doing is this, right? The clips. Getting into that zeitgeist and getting those clips to hit more and more people by having good moments in the stream, by just being yourself—that’s super, super important.

I think on the next bull run for crypto, your ability to potentially find the WIFs of the world— a lot of you guys didn’t think I knew about that one, right?

I have a friend who turned $2,000 into $1 million. I’m not even kidding. I couldn’t believe it when he showed me.

He sold it at $1 million. He got too greedy. But, yeah, your ability to do that—and my ability, if I don’t find the next stock that’s undercovered, it’s hard for me to grow. You grow by getting people interested in a new asset, and hopefully that asset does well.

It’s hard. It’s a fucking hard thing, which is why you need the sponsors. You need the brands to be able to subsidize you in the process of doing all that research, being entertaining, and getting there. That’ll be my advice: keep working hard. I’m taking the same advice.

Amit, man, I’m so happy you came on because I think that a lot of the narratives and things that you talk about, and things you’re excited about that cross over into retail trading—anyone can trade—are just very tight. You’re the man, dude. I don’t know how you do it twice a day, every day, but I’m a fucking huge fan. I think you’re crushing it. Anything else you want to say before you leave?

Amit Kukreja

No, I think it’s super cool. Your community is awesome. I see everyone in the chat. It’s crazy, right? We’re interacting with a chat. Twitch is the best.

Thread Guy

I love it. I fucking love it, dude. Anonymous faces that you just think, “Oh, Shem Pasta—I know that’s one of my OGs.” He’s right here. He was at one of the meetups; I saw him. He’s a cool dude.

It is such a special thing that you’re doing. I don’t take it for granted. I don’t think you take it for granted. Hopefully, we can just keep growing together. Can’t wait for part two, man. You’re the GOAT. Pounds are all time high—part two. Let’s do it.

Amit Kukreja

Thank you, man. Appreciate it.

Thread Guy

Much love. Peace.

Amit Kukreja

Later.

Thread Guy

Hey, we made the right person famous, man. Shout-out to Amitt.