AI交易员、合规永续合约与代币化股票——Lighter创始人 Vlad Novakovski
- Vlad Novakovski 设想的是一个覆盖永续合约、期权和现货的统一余额体系,现货仓位可以作为抵押品。这将把过去只有多资产对冲基金才能获得的能力开放给更多人,但不代表所有人都应该持续交易:“你不该把一整天耗在赌场里。”美国散户可能仍会集中交易熟悉的资产,而全球做市商则会跨境追逐各地的散户流动性。
- AI 更可能让交易员变得“超人化”,而不是取代主观判断。个人每周研究的机会可能从3个增加到100个,但主题、交易场所和风险上限仍由人来决定。Vlad 认为,市场会在夏普比率达到5及以上的系统化策略与顶尖主观投资者之间形成两极,而介于两者之间的半系统化策略历来表现不佳。
- 代币化股票的发展顺序与 Lighter 原先的预期相反:高流动性的永续合约先于现货代币出现。永续合约只需要可信的价格源;现货则需要库存、发行方、托管、做市商,以及如何应对 SEC 的答案。尽管如此,Vlad 仍将全球资产代币化称为一个“数十万亿美元”的机会,并预计市场最终会出现多个可互操作的发行方,而非一家独赢。
- 美国的中心化永续合约已经开始落地,但目前还没有去中心化永续合约 DEX 拿到必要牌照。Vlad 表示,每个平台都必须独立满足 CFTC 原则和 Rule 41 对订单簿管理、ADL 等风险的要求,不能只照搬另一家交易所的设计。Lighter 相信,以 Ethereum 结算并通过透明的智能合约控制风险,能够达到甚至改善传统基础设施的效果。
- 回购是 Lighter 当前向 LIT 持有人传递经济价值的机制,并非适用于所有代币的普遍处方。主持人以 Pump.fun 发起挑战:据称该项目连续约1年每天回购约100万美元代币,但代币价格仍下跌约85%。Vlad 的回答更为有限:Lighter 可以回购并销毁 LIT,也可以要求机构和做市商为支付手续费而购买 LIT,从而产生相同的经济效果。
- Lighter 正在探索传统交易场所尚未服务的市场,包括 H100 算力敞口、IPO 前期权,以及代币化的业务线收入。H100 的逻辑从企业对冲算力成本,延伸到让 AI agent 自动对冲自身开支。Vlad 更激进的例子,是将一家多元化公司的单条收入流单独剥离出来,让投资者只交易这项业务。
- 未来两个季度的执行重点包括期权、新订单类型、更好的执行与用户体验、agent 交易工具,以及更轻量的 EVM。Robinhood 是 Lighter 的独家永续合约合作伙伴,但 Vlad 认为,集成必须持续靠质量取胜,而不能依赖锁定,因为链上执行服务商相对容易替换。Lighter 目前有45名员工,计划保持审慎招聘;较慢的市场周期则为 Telegram Wallet 和 Robinhood 等合作关系的推进提供了时间。
1. 一个统一余额,让机构级市场准入变成零售产品
Vlad 设想的 Lighter 账户将现货、永续合约和期权放在一起,现货仓位可以为衍生品提供抵押。
他关于民主化的判断附带一个警告:更广泛的准入能够改善市场并创造机会,但交易本身仍需要技能。问人人是否都会成为交易员,就像问“人人是否都会成为扑克玩家”。
跨境参与仍会是不对称的。亚洲散户一直在寻找美股和原油的交易机会;美国交易员或许会从 SanDisk 或 Micron 等熟悉的标的延伸到韩国或香港市场,但大概率不会进入陌生的印度或土耳其市场。全球做市商则会在当地散户已经交易的地方与他们汇合。
2. AI 扩大交易员的带宽,但无法复制判断力
Vlad 借鉴量化金融的历史,将早期量化模型描述为 agent 的前身:交易台一直在尝试把主观决策编码进去,包括使用神经设备和通过交易记录反向建模。“从根本上说,这一直没有成功。”
他的实际判断是增强而非替代:一个没有研究团队的交易员,可能将每周评估的机会从3个提高到100个,但仍要负责决定研究哪些问题、选择哪些交易所,以及承担多少风险。
历史规律呈现两极化。Renaissance 的 Medallion 等数学基础扎实的基金实现了5及以上的夏普比率,Warren Buffett 和 Paul Tudor Jones 则凭借主观判断取得成功;夹在两者之间的策略“往往行不通”。未来 AI 可能填平这道鸿沟,但 Vlad 认为目前还没有做到。
3. 永续合约先于代币化现货,因为所需基础设施更少
将所有资产搬到线上交易,可以让普通用户获得过去主要属于顶级投资组合经理的多资产触达能力,交易过程“诚实、透明且可验证”。真正出人意料的是发展顺序:衍生品的交易量先于代币化股票达到规模。
永续合约平台接入可靠的价格源就可以开始交易。现货则要求做市商持有库存,并处理发行方、托管、DTCC,以及在相关情况下机构参与者与 SEC 打交道所涉及的问题。Vlad 认为,这些摩擦解释了为什么一个“数十万亿美元”的机会推进速度异常缓慢。
Vlad 预计发行方格局会类似稳定币:由多个竞争者组成,而非出现一个通吃的赢家。目前大多数股票代币化项目基于 Ethereum,但 Solana 等其他网络也可能参与。Lighter 的答案是保持中立:接受不同发行方提供的兼容资产作为抵押品,而不是押注某个发行方胜出。
4. 合规的去中心化永续合约,关键是证明结果,而不是复制牌照
Vlad 将 Mike Selig 主席领导下的 CFTC 形容为“有点像联邦官僚体系内部的一家创业公司”。他加入了 CFTC 的创新咨询委员会,并称 Kalshi 的中心化合约是大约10年来首个实质性加入该体系的新市场类型——这是对主持人更宽泛的“首个新市场”说法的修正。
中心化永续合约“正在发生”,但 Vlad 表示,目前还没有任何人持有去中心化永续合约 DEX 的牌照。Lighter 对自己的路径“相当有信心”,但每个申请方都必须单独处理 Rule 41:大约一半涉及订单簿管理,另一半涉及 ADL 等风险。
区块链的实现不必照搬50年前制定的规则。Vlad 认为,Ethereum 结算可能比交易所自主管理的账本更容易验证;透明的智能合约 ADL 也可以用更少的合规机制,实现传统保险基金规则的目标。
同样的透明度本可以阻止 Bernie Madoff 的骗局,或者至少通过验证立即将其暴露。客户很少要求隐藏订单;如果这种需求发生变化,Lighter 的 ZK 系统也可以支持隐私。Vlad 表示,即使外部观察者在10分钟后看到一家复杂交易公司的仓位,真正的交易 alpha 也往往已经无法使用。
5. 回购是价值传递机制,不是普遍适用的处方
主持人拿 Pump.fun 向 Vlad 施压:该项目据称连续约1年每天回购约100万美元代币,但代币价格估计下跌了85%。Vlad 没有声称回购能够确保价格上涨;他称回购是 Lighter 当前将其创造的经济价值导向 LIT 持有人的方式。
零售用户不支付手续费,而机构和做市商可能被要求使用 LIT 支付费用。随后,Lighter 可以销毁其国库中的这些代币,也可以从另一个资金池销毁等量代币,产生与国库出资公开市场回购相同的经济效果。
Vlad 没有建议所有项目都进行回购。在监管过渡期,回购是许多项目都能采用的透明机制;但更清晰的规则可能允许直接将企业或收入流代币化,让持有人通过另一种结构获得“同样的经济利益”。
6. Lighter 的路线图将新市场与开放分发结合起来
H100 市场最初是为算力成本占成本基础较大比重的企业提供对冲工具。更具前瞻性的用途,是让 AI agent“能够自主对冲自身的算力成本”,在算力价格变化中实现自我维持。
其他候选市场包括 IPO 前股票的期权,即使标的缺乏流动性;以及将一家拥有10条业务线的公司中的单条收入流单独代币化。Vlad 将试验推进缓慢直接归因于监管不确定性:哪些资产属于证券,以及不同监管机构会如何看待它们。
Lighter 是 Robinhood 的独家永续合约合作伙伴,但 Vlad 拒绝永久锁定的逻辑:由于链上执行平台更容易被替换,Lighter 必须持续凭借更低成本、更高质量的执行取胜。预测市场遵循类似的分发逻辑:第三方开发者,而非 Lighter 核心团队,可以在 Lighter VM 上构建市场,并使用同一个交易员余额。
运营路线图包括期权、更多订单类型、改进用户体验与执行、agent 交易功能、新市场和合作伙伴关系,以及正在开发中的更轻量 EVM,预计覆盖未来两个季度。这个45人的团队计划审慎招聘;较慢的市场周期也为大局层面的工作提供了时间,包括 Telegram Wallet 和 Robinhood 合作关系的推进。
完整逐字稿
Yo-yo-yo, how is it? It’s Thread Guy, and I’m back with a special taped interview with Vlad, founder and CEO of Lighter Perpex, one of the hottest products in the financial world right now. Vlad is back for part two in this entry. Vlad, nice to see you, dude. Welcome to the stream—or back to the podcast. It seems like an eternity has passed.
That’s right.
Dude, this is funny. I was just watching the interview with Avi, and you said you went to TJ. I’m from Northern Virginia myself. I didn’t know—are you from Virginia, or did you just go to TJ?
I grew up in Northern Virginia.
Okay. Oh, well, this is cool.
Yes, dude. I was just thinking about that. It was there that I met another Vlad. We are both TJ graduates.
Oh, yes, he really studied at TJ. I kind of forgot about that. This is incredible.
I love Virginia. I’m going home in 2 weeks to visit my family. I’m really looking forward to this. I haven’t been there in a while. Very excited.
But I was thinking about this. You came to the stream when we were live. I don’t remember the exact date. I think it was before October 10th—maybe not. This was definitely before the TGE for Lighter.
Since then, much has changed in the financial landscape. A lot has changed in my life, because when you were around, I traded almost exclusively on-chain. I didn’t trade perpetual contracts, or perps, at all. I definitely didn’t trade stock perps.
In fact, since then, over the last 6 months, I’ve spent a ton of time on trading volumes. So I feel like I can approach this from a different angle than raising these metrics. Dude, I’m just cranking up the volume like crazy right now. I just raised the volume incredibly. It’s cool.
You’re also on a podcast tour right now. I managed to listen to a few episodes, and I liked them. In any case, thank you for being here with us.
I guess I’ll start with a question. Based on the idea that I’ve been trading a lot of perps lately, could you explain what you think trading will look like in 5–10 years? Do you believe that everyone can become a trader? What will they trade? How will they trade? What will the market look like in 5–10 years?
Yes, I think access will definitely become wider. I think there will be a lot of synergy between the markets. You will be able to trade—or I know for sure you will be able to on Lighter, for example—perpetual contracts, options, and spot from one balance.
I think that’s really cool, right? Because when you trade on a centralized exchange, you can’t just move your position somewhere else. But on a decentralized platform like Lighter, you can have a spot position as collateral for a perpetual one, or trade options.
It’s not about whether everyone will do it. It’s like asking, “Will everyone become a poker player?” I think this requires skills. AI is changing that too, right? The types of trader skills will look a little different with AI agents than without them.
But the main thing is wider access: democratization of finance.
So does this mean that everyone should trade all day?
Probably not, just as you shouldn’t spend the whole day in a casino. But wider access makes markets more efficient and creates opportunities.
On the topic of AI, I think there’s a huge push from many exchanges right now. Coinbase talks a lot about this, and Robinhood does too. The concept is agentic trading.
I integrated AI into my trading from a research perspective to understand why I lost so much on the last 7 trades. What am I doing wrong? I analyze my strategy, but not from the perspective of executing an entry or exit. What do you think about agentic trading?
Yes. When I worked in quantitative finance, a lot of funds, including Citadel, were run like this. You usually have discretionary traders who make decisions based on human judgment, and you also have quantitative models.
The quantitative models that existed 10–20 years ago are, in some ways, the predecessors of AI agents. But it’s kind of a question of whether you can automate these human decision-making processes. That’s always been what trading departments have tried to do.
If you could put what a discretionary trader does into a model, then that obviously creates efficiencies. That’s never been done successfully, and I’m not sure AI agents can do it either.
I think, to answer your question, they’re more likely to make human traders superhuman. For example, instead of researching 3 trade ideas a week, you’ll be able to research, let’s say, 100 ideas a week.
But you’ll still have to make decisions about what topics you’re looking at in general, what type of risk management you want to use, and what exchanges you choose. I still think there’s going to be a lot of room for human decision-making.
Maybe someone who’s really good at risk management but doesn’t have a large research team now gets a superpower that allows them to do a lot of research, for example.
Why has it never been done effectively?
It’s been tried many times. I remember there were even professors at MIT who did this. While someone was trading, they used some kind of neural device to watch what was going on in the person’s brain, and they tried to map it that way.
Things like analyzing a person’s track record and reverse-engineering their actions have been tried a bunch of times, but fundamentally it hasn’t worked. I just think that it’s like a barbell, right?
There are strategies that are very systematic, and that’s what successful quant strategies do. For example, the Renaissance Medallion Fund that I mentioned earlier—Jim Simons was the first to do that. Thorpe did it too. There are a lot of other quant funds out there now.
These strategies are very systematic and mathematically well-founded. They’ve done very well, with Sharpe ratios of 5 and above. On the other hand, you have people like Warren Buffett or Paul Tudor Jones, who are very discretionary, and they’ve done very well.
So it’s like a barbell. If you’re in the middle—partly systematic and partly discretionary—those strategies tend not to work. I think if you try to take successful discretionary traders, what they’re doing is actually not very easy to replicate, even with traditional machine learning.
I’m not sure it’s easy to do even with this new AI. Maybe someday the next generation of AI will be able to catch up. I don’t rule that out. But so far, human judgment that’s not purely quantitative is not something that AI has been able to really replicate in trading.
It’s a complicated story. Yeah, it’s interesting. So, on this idea of an exchange where you can trade everything, I feel like there are quite a few players who are really keen on that.
Do you think it’s going to become a popular practice for traders from the US to increase their trading volume in emerging markets? Obviously, South Korea is very popular right now because of the memory trade—SK Hynix and Samsung—but they’re a bit of an anomaly, at least as far as I understand how most of these emerging markets are traded.
As we get more access to trading everything, how do you think behavior will change in terms of what people trade?
Yes. What we’ve seen so far has been more of a reverse process. People from places like Hong Kong and other parts of Asia have been getting more access to the US markets, and also to commodities like crude oil. I think we’ve seen that more often than the other way around.
I think you’re right, and for certain markets we’ve seen movement in both directions. But if you think about retail investors versus institutional investors, for institutions like Jane Street—market makers—they want to be active on a global level.
For that to work, on the other hand, there have to be retail investors. So I think you’re going to have that kind of access. Let’s say an institutional firm wants to operate where there’s an exchange with all the necessary licenses. You’d want to be in as many jurisdictions as possible, creating markets.
But retail investors have to come from somewhere. If you’re talking about countries like Turkey or India, is an American retail trader going there if the locals are already excited about those markets? Probably not. They’re probably going to trade what they know.
To a greater extent, if there are related markets—for example, if they trade SanDisk or Micron here, they can trade similar markets in Korea or Hong Kong. But they’re not going to go into markets like India or Turkey.
Market makers are going to go there and trade against local retail investors.
I think that’s a good idea. I actually think that’s a good way to look at things. I like that way of looking at things, and I’ll probably add something.
I never really traded stocks. I learned to trade by playing around with options when I was 16 or 17 in high school, through my parents’ Robinhood account or something. Then you merge 4 or 5 accounts and you’re like, “This sucks,” and then you find NFTs. This is more interesting. I can make more money on NFTs and crypto.
Now it’s all coming back to normal. There’s a certain deep irony that the best crypto product or innovation of the last couple of years is this idea of trading stocks, but I’m just obsessed with it.
It’s the most enjoyable trading experience I’ve had in the last 6 months, and it’s been a great environment for retail investors to trade stocks. The market has been mostly up, except for the last week.
I’m curious as to how you see the landscape of this tokenized stock ecosystem evolving. Who do you think will win? There’s Trade XYZ, some kind of independent company. There are exchanges that are trying to do this.
There are projects like Backpack or, let’s say, Robinhood, that are trying to bring all the stocks online. Is there a major winner in this idea of tokenized stocks? Is it becoming democratized? Who wins the most, and how do you win in this ecosystem?
I think your idea of trading everything is one way to look at it. It goes back to the idea of democratizing finance. If you’re, say, a big hedge fund, you could do that all the time, right? If you’re a portfolio manager at one of the big hedge funds, you could usually trade everything from stocks to commodities to currencies and, in the last 10 years, crypto assets—everything in your portfolio.
Now, the fact that anyone can do it, and that it’s online, honest, transparent, and verified, is a big opportunity. It’s a democratization of what was previously only available to elite traders and portfolio managers. I think that’s one of the points.
With tokenized stocks, we expected there would be tokenization of stocks first, and then derivatives like perpetual futures, or perps, would be built on top of that. But it turned out the other way around: first there were perpetual futures, with high trading volumes, and then gradually tokenized shares began to be introduced.
It seems to me that there will not be just one issuer. I think there will be several players competing. We at Lighter do not choose winners in this matter; everything happens on the network. Most of them are based on Ethereum. Of course, there are others, like Solana or, as you mentioned, other networks, but most of the tokenization of shares happens on Ethereum, where there is also DTCC and the issue of how asset custody works.
We are in a position where all of this can be used as collateral on Lighter and traded on our platform, so we are happy to cooperate with any issuer. In some cases, we already do.
That’s the same behavior as with stablecoins, right? There is Circle, there is Tether. There is no one winner; there are many new players. I think it’s going to look something like this. Some partners might be more aligned with our infrastructure than others, but ultimately, if it’s all on the network, it’s going to be compatible, interoperable, and easier. There’s no one winner in stablecoins, but there’s Tether.
But tell me, why has it gone in the opposite direction? Why is there a proliferation of perpetuals, with tokenized spot assets clearly taking a back seat? Why is that? Are there any technical limitations?
I think it’s more that smart markets are slower to develop, because you need all the plumbing to work, and so do market makers, right? If they actually have to maintain inventory, it’s different than if you have perpetuals. With perpetuals, if you have a good pricing channel, you can just plug in and start trading.
With spot, you have to worry about inventory, you have to worry about the issuer, and, in some cases, what this means for an institutional player dealing with the SEC. There are a lot more things to think about.
It’s surprising to me that this is moving so slowly, given how big this opportunity is. The tokenization of global assets is massive. This is a tens-of-trillions-of-dollars opportunity, right? Despite some friction points, it’s surprising that more players aren’t acting more aggressively, even though it’s already happening.
We’ll be there when this is ramping up, and it’s going to be a consolidated trading experience on Lighter.
The big topic of discussion right now in the crypto community is the regulatory landscape. Of course, clarity is getting a lot of coverage, and so is the legalization of perpetuals in the US. That’s a topic where I think there’s a lot of confusion. Even I feel a bit confused about the regulatory landscape in the context of legal perpetuals.
There’s Koshi and Coinbase, which have legal perpetuals; they essentially act as perpetuals. And there’s also Hyperliquid, which is very active on Capitol Hill trying to get results. Can you outline the situation with legal perpetual contracts in the US? Who is allowed to do it, who is not, and what is needed to make progress?
Perpetual contracts and derivatives in general are regulated by the CFTC, right? We spent a lot of time with Chairman Mike Selig and his team. I also joined their innovation advisory committee, helping them think through some of the larger issues.
The CFTC moves quickly. In that sense, they operate a little bit like a startup within the federal bureaucracy. They’ve already approved centralized contracts in the context of Kalshi, which was the first time in 10 years that a fundamentally new market had been added to their system.
They’re moving quickly, but the rules are still there. There are basic principles of the CFTC that need to be complied with, either literally or in some other way, and there has to be a rationale for why it works.
For example, if settlement happens on Ethereum, which is a very reliable settlement layer that has been around for a long time and is very decentralized, that could be even more transparent and more compliant than a traditional ledger, right? The exchange doesn’t have to maintain that on its own if it relies on Ethereum for settlement.
Another point is something like ADL. If it’s implemented correctly, where the risk management is transparent, you actually need less compliance, because in traditional finance you would have to maintain all these different insurance funds, and that requires rules. Whereas if you implement it through smart contracts or mechanisms like ADL, those rules can be implemented in a way that gets the same or even better results using blockchain technology.
The bottom line is that centralized perpetual contracts are here. It’s happening right now; there are people in the US trading perpetual contracts on decentralized exchanges, specifically Cali. The next step is going to be decentralized perpetual contracts. I think that’s the area we’re most interested in: the decentralized perpetual DEX space.
Right now, nobody has a license to do that. We’re pretty confident moving down that path. We think the technical solutions we’ve implemented at Lighter make it easier to comply with a lot of these rules.
We’re very impressed with the leadership and the CFTC team, who are really working to innovate while staying true to the core principles.
The first new market in 10 years—that’s just wild. I didn’t know that.
Well, not the first new market, but the first new type of market.
The first new type of market. And what was it 10 years ago?
I think there was some new type of swap. After the financial crisis, they added certain markets at the time. Early 2020s.
The first new type of market in 10 years is crazy. So what do you think the landscape of regulated decentralized perpetual DEXs will look like? Will it be the type of exchange with this infrastructure where everyone gets a license? Will only certain companies get a license and others don’t? How big is the moat for those who get a license compared to others who can get a license?
I think a license is needed, like in traditional finance, right? Let’s say the CME has a license, just for the sake of analogy. A new exchange can’t just come in and say, “We’re doing the same thing as the CME, so give us a license.” No, you still have to go through the process and comply with Rule 41, where half of it is about order book management and the other half is about risks like ADL and things like that.
Some of these rules could be implemented on the blockchain—not exactly the way they were written 50 years ago, but actually in a better way. You have to explain why. But that doesn’t mean you can just say, “We have to go through the whole process with the agency and convince everyone.”
You can’t just say, “We’re doing the same thing as another exchange. Take our word for it,” and that’s it.
By the way, a little digression: you told a story, I think, on Aya’s podcast about Bernie Madoff and how, if there had been on-chain settlement or something like that, the whole operation would have been exposed instantly. You would have known about it.
That’s right. It’s an amazing story. I think he wouldn’t have even been able to start that pyramid scheme in the first place. But even if he had somehow done it, the verification process would have exposed it right away, as opposed to having to pick up the phone and call someone, and they just forgot to do it and it never got exposed.
Another thing that interested me was this narrative that people don’t want their trades to be public, right? Everybody wants a dark pool. They want to hide their orders. You also mentioned that the complaint, “I want to hide my orders,” is not a common one among customers. I think it’s a misconception in the crypto space that people hate public orders.
For us, it would be a competitive advantage if that were a customer request, because we use ZK. We use ZK for scaling now, and our ZK schemes can also be used for privacy. If that were a customer request, we would actually be in an even stronger market position.
But we have to meet customer requests where they are, if it’s not already a request. Maybe that will change as more traditional players come into this space, after CFTC approval and all that. But we’ll see.
Why doesn’t it matter that much?
I think it’s because a lot of the alpha investors—it says something about where this alpha is coming from. Maybe it’s not coming from where people might assume, right? Maybe the source of the alpha is not such that, even if you knew about a high-yield trading firm’s trades 10 minutes after they were made, you couldn’t really do much about it.
That's interesting. I saw Multicoin had a little bit of a commotion today because they took Hyperliquid off staking, and they were like, “This is why I'm bullish on Zcash. We need private orders.” It seems like that was on Hyperliquid. They de-staked Hyperliquid, and they were upset. People were watching the wallet.
Yeah. I think it's a little different. It's a long-term investment. It's not a firm that's trading for “alpha.”
I guess these long-term rates, like in traditional finance, are usually publicly known. These short-term rates aren't.
Got it. Yeah, that makes sense.
Okay. Here's another question for you. Has there been a historical discussion in the crypto debate, if you will, about the concept of buybacks? There's a classic example: Rollbit, of course, in its failure or lack thereof. There's the story of Hyperliquid, which has been a huge success lately.
I've talked a lot about Pump.fun and its buyback mechanism, and on crypto Twitter there were discussions about whether buybacks matter, because Pump.fun has been buying back about $1 million worth of tokens every day for the last year, give or take, and the price of the token has gone down—I don't want to be wrong—by about 85%.
Lighter has this mechanism where, at this point, you're essentially buying back the Lighter token with all the revenue, at least for now, and then in the future you're going to split that just with the revenue. But the point is, you guys are taking buybacks pretty seriously. Do they matter? Are buybacks important? What's the purpose of them?
I think right now it's the primary mechanism through which the economic value that Lighter creates goes to LIT holders. It's really important to do.
In the long run, we want to get to a state where any business can be tokenized and revenue streams can be tokenized, and then you could potentially achieve the same thing that way. I think buybacks are a good way to do it right now.
Another way to think about it is that it makes sense for the exchange. For example, we could have users pay fees. Lighter has zero fees for retail users, but institutions and market makers could have to pay fees in LIT. Then they buy LIT on the open market to pay those fees, so you achieve the same thing that way.
In any case, we in our treasury would like to burn that LIT, or the equivalent amount from another pool. If our fees were paid in LIT, we wouldn't want to sell them; we would want to burn them. I think it makes sense when we achieve the same economic effect through a different mechanism.
I think it works for businesses like Lighter. Broadly speaking, is this right for every project?
In the current environment, where we're in a state of transition and there's still no clarity, there's a question about which tokens are securities. In an environment where a lot is still uncertain, I think this is a transparent mechanism that works for a lot of projects.
In the long term, whether every project will have to do a buyback, I'm not sure. There may be other ways to get the same economic benefit to token holders. But in the case of Lighter, it's very appropriate, and we're going to continue to do that.
You mentioned regulatory clarity a few times. Do you think achieving that will have a significant impact on the crypto industry as a whole?
I think so. It's actually going to have a smaller impact on Lighter directly and a bigger impact on the rest of the industry: how tokenization works, how new DeFi protocols work, KYC, and all that.
If you're running a derivatives exchange, regardless of whether there's clear regulation, you need some form of regulation anyway. But for a lot of other projects that are going to come out, it's important to have that clarity. I think it's going to be pretty important.
You recently launched a market on H100, which is pretty exciting. I think it's also the first market on H100, at least from what I've seen. It's the first decentralized perpetual exchange. Some centralized exchanges added it later. The first perpetual exchange to launch an H100 market. What was the thesis behind that move?
The initial thesis was that there would be demand for this from companies that are heavily dependent on computing power, like scalable services or other AI companies.
But I also think the AI world and the cryptocurrency world are still a little bit far apart. There needs to be some convergence, because most people in AI right now are asking, “What is this?” They don't know exactly how it works, and vice versa.
Ultimately, if you're running a company where compute is a big part of the cost structure, hedging those risks would be very valuable. But what's even more forward-looking is the idea that an AI agent could autonomously hedge its own compute costs. That opens up a lot of interesting possibilities, where an AI agent can be self-sufficient regardless of what's happening with compute. That's an interesting concept.
As a follow-up to that question, what else isn't there a market for right now that you think there should be?
If Vitalik were here, he would say leasing. That's something he likes to write about. But I think there are markets like options; that's something we're working on.
An interesting concept would be: What would an option on a pre-IPO stock look like? Even if the underlying asset is not liquidly traded, that doesn't mean the option can't be liquid. There are some interesting markets of that kind.
Another interesting market is the tokenization of income streams. Imagine if you could have a token that captures, let's say, one of the 10 different lines of business a company operates. You want to bet on just one of them, and you could somehow tokenize the income stream of that line of business. I think that kind of thing could be interesting.
Wow. I've never thought of that concept before. It's crazy. Income isolation is really good.
Yeah, that's right. That goes back to your previous question. Part of the reason there hasn't been enough work done on these ideas is because there's a lack of clarity about what is a security and what isn't, and how it's viewed by different authorities.
For example, perps are pretty straightforward because they're not that different from traditional futures. But with some of the other things, there's still a lot of room for financial innovation.
What are you spending the most time on right now? Are you thinking about integrating something new? What's taking up the majority of your day at Lighter right now?
That's a tough question.
It's interesting, because I feel like when you're in a good cycle, you have less control over your time, which is kind of funny. When you're on the upswing, you're seeing good numbers, and a lot of people come to you with ideas that they want to work on together.
I don't just mean internal things. I'm talking about potential partners. A lot of it is saying, “Okay, spend time with this group because they're thinking about this new market,” or, “Maybe we could work together on a wallet integration.”
When you're going through a more challenging period, nobody really calls you. You can step back a little bit and think about what the future of the world looks like, analyze your roadmap, and figure out what technology you need to create. It's interesting how that works. It's a bit countercyclical.
I can’t talk about the price of the token, but in terms of the price, you had a lull period where everyone was asking, “What happened? What happened to Lighter?” It was a couple of months, at least, if I remember correctly, sometime in the spring. Then, just recently, everyone was saying, “Wow, Lighter's numbers are really crazy, and it's a really good trading platform.”
Do you change what you do when the numbers are down compared to when they're up? What do you focus on? How do you deal with the downturn—numbers down, marketing down, crypto token price down? How do you work with that?
There's just less incoming requests during those times. You have more time to take a step back and think about the big picture, and maybe work on 2 or 3 really big partnerships.
That's when we worked on the Telegram Wallet and Robinhood partnerships. I think that's something every founder has to learn. There are cycles in any business, and in crypto too.
You're building more publicly, and because of that, you're getting a little more attention. I think that's mostly good. We're trying to be transparent. There's a bit of a toxic atmosphere on Twitter, but you have to take the good and the bad.
You like that we're still always on?
Yeah, I like that. Although I think the token holders don't like that.
Some of your tweets really stand out. Some of them are iconic. You have a few posts like that every month.
Yeah. Of course, it's interesting. Communication is another thing that we're improving on.
One thing we’ve noticed is that every time we talk about technology, we win. For example, we had this event with Vitalik, where we took a deep dive into technology, and I think that was kind of a turning point for us. I saw you were having a fireside chat with him, like an interview.
Yeah, that was really cool.
And congratulations on the success of Robinhood and Telegram TON. I know you’ve talked a lot about Robinhood. I want to ask the question a little differently. I’m curious about how the partnership with Robinhood is working and what else they can do with other infrastructure providers, because there’s been an interesting evolution. Robinhood has integrated KHI as a prediction market partner, and it’s incredible for both parties. It’s also incredible for KHI’s business.
I think that’s given KHI a big boost in volume. It’s really strengthened their position in the US and helped their business a lot. And then Robinhood is trying to build its own prediction market, and maybe that’s hurt them a little bit, right? It’s kind of slowed things down a bit. Maybe they would have been better off starting with their own product from the beginning.
So I’m curious: have you learned anything from that dynamic with Lighter and Robinhood? Have you learned anything from that?
I think, first of all, in the DeFi context, it’s different, right? Because you can have all the orders on the blockchain. And so if you had a centralized execution platform, you would use one or the other, I think.
From our perspective, first of all, I think the efficiency that Lighter offers is a win-win for the customer, for Robinhood, and for us. And we are the exclusive partner for perps, but even if there was another collaboration where that wasn’t the case, and we had to prove ourselves every time, we would still win on quality, right? Because it’s a cheaper structure, and it’s very easy to swap one for another. On-chain, swapping one execution platform for another is much easier than in a centralized way.
So ultimately, we have to provide value to the partner and their customers. And I think we really do that with our technology. But it would be unfair to anyone if it was like, “Okay, you’re locked into this platform forever, regardless of whether it brings value.” That would be wrong.
Yeah. Yeah, I agree. Cool. I have one or two more questions for you. I’ll let you go soon. One, maybe one more clarification on prediction markets: how do you feel about prediction markets and perps being somewhat mixed up—maybe figuratively in the way people perceive trading, but also literally, because every exchange that’s desperate to add perps is also desperate to add prediction markets?
Do you have any plans to do something like HIPP4? What do you think about the overall evolution of markets?
Yeah. I mean, I think it’s all about distribution, right? Every platform, like every blog site, wanted to add videos, and every video service wanted to add blogs. You know what I mean? It’s probably a distribution issue. I think they’re pretty different markets.
In terms of outcomes, our view is that the infrastructure that we’ve built, and especially with the advent of the Lighter VM, will allow developers to implement prediction markets on Lighter using the Lighter balance, so a trader can trade prediction markets with the same balance they use for other markets. That’s great. We’re fully supportive of that.
I don’t think our core team wants to be in the prediction markets business. I think we want to let other developers who are passionate about it do that. So that brings us back to the democratization of finance, right? Because democratization means, by definition, that not every market is going to be amazing for every participant.
There are going to be some markets where people are going to lose money if they bet on the wrong outcome. But we don’t think we want to be in the business of tracking who did what in a particular baseball game or anything like that, right?
Yeah, that makes sense. But it’s a great vision—the democratization of finance. I’ll give you this question to finish off. What’s coming up on the Lighter roadmap, and also on the user experience side of trading? I know you’re working on a lot of cool things, like new order types and things like that. What’s the near future, and maybe the longer-term perspective, for Lighter and the use of the platform?
Yeah. Well, I think there’s a lot more to come in terms of new order types and a greater variety of features that, as I said, make every trader a superhuman trader. That includes things like improved UX, better execution, and AI—adding agent-trading elements to the platform and adding ways to implement these kinds of strategies. That’s definitely part of it.
I think fundamentally, options are a big part of our roadmap. We’ve talked about that a few times, and an even lighter EVM is already in the works for the next 2 quarters. So yeah, that’s happening.
There are lots of good things. Of course, as always, we’re adding new markets and new partnerships. The team is very inspired. We just had a general meeting, the recording is on Wednesday, like every Wednesday, and each team had a dozen ideas that they wanted to work on. So I think it’s time for us to act.
How big is your team?
There are 45 people now.
Wow. Wow. Are you hiring new people quickly? I guess, you know, there’s an old saying: hire slowly, fire quickly.
I don’t think so. We don’t want to hire too many people, as you understand. But we’re very interested in talking to talented people who share our vision.
I love it. Vlad, thank you very much for coming. A lot has happened since our first meeting. That was before TGE, and a lot has happened since TGE. You’re in a great position now, and I appreciate everything you’re doing for the industry. We’re excited to see you and discuss what you’re working on. Thanks again, man.
Thanks for the invite.
Sure. Okay. Have a nice day.