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20VC · · 58 分钟

Robinhood创始人兼CEO Vlad Tenev:Robinhood 850亿美元复兴,以及将 SpaceX 与 OpenAI 代币化

Harry StebbingsVlad Tenev

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TL;DR
  • 过去8个月,Robinhood市值从350亿美元升至850亿美元,Tenev将这次重估归因于时间,而非新战略。「过去2年我们一直在说同样的事情,也一直在相当清晰地阐述战略,我认为只是需要时间来理解这套战略正在奏效。」外界低估的另一面,是AI驱动的成本结构:工程团队对AI代码的采用率“接近100%”,人工编写的代码已成“少数”;客服则运行在公司自研系统上,Tenev称其“同类最佳……甚至比专门做客户支持AI的公司更强”。
  • 代币化是本期的核心判断。Tenev认为,代币化将成为过去10年金融领域最大的创新,带来两项极端重要的收益:股票代币将成为美国以外投资者获取美国资产敞口最简单的方式,复用稳定币的路径;同时,它能把私营公司、房地产、艺术品等非流动资产开放给美国散户。关键创新在于,它“不需要被代币化公司的主动选择”即可运作,从而解决逆向选择问题——“唯一向散户融资的公司,往往是那些没有其他选择的公司”。
  • Tenev正在构建的终局是“资本即服务”(capital as a service)。他 dismisses 加密纯粹主义者关于链上发行的梦想——“没人他妈在乎链上发行”——转而描述这样一个市场:创始人按下按钮,资金直接进入银行账户,并在从最早期阶段开始的全周期市场中竞争。“如果我们成功做到这一点,创业公司会变多”——众筹曾经承诺的事情,终于真正实现。
  • 加密货币将不再是一个独立板块,而会成为一切业务背后的底层。稳定币利息类似储蓄账户,预测市场运行在加密货币轨道上,而加密钱包将成为“所有这些代币化资产的一等体验”——这个钱包直到最近“甚至还没有被货币化”。公开股票代币将分3阶段推进:对接 NASDAQ/NYSE 铸造和销毁;在 Bitstamp 上交易,解锁24/7交易;最终进入自托管和 DeFi,“那时事情才真正开始变得有意思”。
  • 面对 Airwallex 创始人 Jack Zhang(字幕中可能写作“Jack Jeang”)对稳定币的看空,Tenev给出了一线运营案例:过去周末进行加密结算,意味着承担交易对手风险、支付昂贵的授信额度,或低效地预先备付资金。2021年 Robinhood 的做法是“筹集大量资本并预先备付,然后希望资金够用”。现在,“我们周末直接把美元转过去……问题解决”。在美国以外,稳定币还“基本淘汰了 American Express 旅行支票”。
  • 这次翻身的真正原因,是公司意识到活跃交易者才是核心业务,而不是首次入市者。零佣金原本意外吸引了高频活跃交易者,他们具备韧性——“他们有做空策略,市场下跌时仍然活跃”——但 Robinhood 直到2022年才正视这批客户,随后让“一些最硬核的人”专门服务他们。“这实际上是我们业务翻身背后的第一大原因。”
  • 下一步扩张是数字私人银行,随后是活期账户。私人银行业务正在“非常非常快地推出”,包括类似 DoorDash 的现金配送,因为“没有什么比不得不去 7-Eleven 更能破坏私人银行的氛围”。公司还必须“拿到人们的工资入账”。Tenev希望把自己的所有个人金融事务都放在 Robinhood 上,并认为距离满足自身需求“可能还有几年”。5-10年的愿景是:任何个人或企业都能“买卖或持有任何金融资产”,业务覆盖全球,同时服务散户和机构。
摘要 · 为研究而整理的核心内容

1. 850亿美元重估:两年前的战略终于被市场相信,外加一条低调的AI主线

  • 8个月前,Tenev还坐在同一把椅子上,当时 Robinhood 的市值是350亿美元;现在已是850亿美元。他的解释刻意平淡:“过去2年我们一直在说同样的事情,也一直在相当清晰地阐述战略……只是需要时间来理解它正在奏效。”他承认,想忽略股价并不容易,因为“我的产品会把股价直接塞进你的脑子里”。
  • 在成本纪律方面,AI是重要组成部分,只是 Robinhood 对规模“相当沉默”。面对一个可能来自 Benioff 的说法——Salesforce 新代码中50%由AI编写——Tenev给出了更激进的判断:随着工程团队从 Copilot 自动补全转向 Cursor,再转向智能体工具,AI采用率已“接近100%”,“甚至很难判断哪些代码是人生成的。如果让我猜,人工代码是少数”。Robinhood 面向客户的AI产品 Cortex 在录制当天上线。
  • 客服AI由公司自研,Tenev称其“同类最佳……甚至比专门做客户支持AI的公司更强”。自研而非采购的原因,在于深度集成的价值:调取专有数据,并对后端系统执行操作,“我认为大多数供应商还没有真正解决这个问题”。原则上,他愿意把内部工具平台化——“来自客户的外部压力……这是确保产品持续优秀的方式”——但不想从事整合其他公司数据的业务。
  • AI的短板在于幻觉,这也是 Harmonic 的起点。Tenev目前担任该公司董事长,刚完成 Series B;他当时思考的是:“我们能否设计一个从机制上避免幻觉、确保每一步推理都合乎逻辑的系统?”每个输出在呈现前都会被检查,并有“一项非常清晰的正确性衡量标准”。

2. 活跃交易者:一门意外形成、最终带来翻身的业务

  • Robinhood 最初用零佣金瞄准首次入市者,但零佣金意外吸引了大量高频活跃交易者——“如果你每月支付1000美元佣金,你会在别处做所有复杂研究,然后只在 Robinhood 上交易”。收入远高于首次入市者模型,背后是一批规模“定义清晰、边界明确”的客户,而公司此前忽视了他们。
  • 到2022年,公司已经明显在错误对待一批结构上更具韧性的客户:“他们有做空策略。市场下跌时,他们仍然活跃;市场横盘时,他们可以做多腿期权。”这批客户的增长速度超过 Robinhood,并开始流失。公司让“一些最硬核的人”负责服务他们,推出期货阶梯和 Robinhood Legend,“这实际上是我们业务翻身背后的第一大原因”。
  • Tenev认为,这批客户像游戏玩家:“屏幕、耳机、机械键盘……他们完全沉浸其中”,痴迷于速度和延迟。
  • 对于迷因股的说法,他并不认同。CoreWeave 和 Circle 的买家“确实相信这些会成为规模巨大的产业”。散户可选的AI标的很少:Nvidia 的市值达到4万亿美元,Tesla 的AI业务“可能只占整个故事的10-20%”。因此,CoreWeave 是千亿美元以下估值的AI敞口,Circle 则是“对稳定币的纯粹敞口”。

3. 无需主动选择的代币化:“数字版邻避主义”与逆向选择修复

  • Tenev在1月为《华盛顿邮报》撰文支持代币化,如今称其为过去10年金融领域最大的创新。它有两项极端重要的收益:就像稳定币之于美元,股票代币将成为美国以外投资者“获取美国股票敞口的最佳方式”;在美国境内,它则能打开私营公司、房地产乃至“艺术品”等非流动资产。
  • 按照他的类比,这套结构就是稳定币:把“传统资产装进盒子”,再以1:1的方式代币化到区块链上,就像 Circle 的代币由美国国债和国库券支持。OpenAI作为非营利机构“没有股份”,因此其代币化标的是利润参与单位和可转债权益证券,通过 SPV 包装后代币化并提供给散户。选择 SpaceX 和 OpenAI,是因为它们“重要、难以获得……但也有需求”,与其专栏中的两个案例相同。
  • 对于 OpenAI 的反对,Tenev认为其“请务必谨慎”声明“有点多余”;他还意外发现,这条声明成了 OpenAI“有史以来最受欢迎的推文”。他对整个类别的诊断是:“原则上大家都喜欢代币化,但当代币化发生在自己身上时,吸引力就没那么大了。这有点像数字版邻避主义。”他甚至反过来利用 OpenAI 的使命提出论证:AGI“让全人类而不只是高管和富有投资者拥有它”,正是让AGI“造福全人类”的方式之一。
  • 最核心的论点是:最好的私营公司“可以从任何地方融资……它们不会考虑散户”,因此所有面向散户开放私募资产的尝试,都因逆向选择而失败——只有没有其他选择的公司才会向散户融资。所以,“代币化机制必须在无需被代币化公司主动选择的情况下运作,这正是我们能够推动的创新”。同样的逻辑也适用于 Stripe:散户无法接触“一家定义品类的公司”是“大问题”;而 Patrick 和 John 按他的说法回应:“哦,我们只是一家小型爱尔兰家族公司。请不要把我的股份代币化。”

4. 路线图:从3个阶段走向 DeFi,再到“资本即服务”

  • 目前在欧盟已经上线200多只代币化公开股票,目标是数千只。库存很重要,因为“你永远不知道什么会变得流行……我们不想从事挑选赢家的业务”。整个过程分3阶段:第一阶段,每次交易都前往实际交易所,为每枚代币铸造或销毁;第二阶段,在 Bitstamp 上以加密货币和美元挂牌交易,解锁24/7交易;第三阶段,开放直接的区块链接口,支持自托管、抵押借贷和 DeFi,“那时事情才真正开始变得有意思”。
  • 监管方面,欧盟在 MiCA 框架下“相当明确”;美国则需要同时推进合格投资者制度改革和加密货币立法。欧盟上线部分是为了向全球其他市场展示可行性;他还引用 SEC 主席 Paul Atkins 的说法,称 SEC“必须停止设置路障”,“实际上我们得到了两党的支持”。
  • 当被问到代币化能深入到哪一层、像 Harmonic 这样的 Series B 公司是否也能交易时,Tenev回答:“目标是尽可能深入”。他对加密纯粹主义者的反驳是本期最精彩的一句话:“加密圈的人会告诉你,未来属于链上发行……没人他妈在乎链上发行。人们想要的是资本即服务。”终局是上传信息、在市场中竞争,“按下一个按钮,资金就进入你的银行账户,然后你可以回去经营业务”。如果这套模式成功,“创业公司会变多”——这正是众筹“一直承诺、但从未真正实现”的事情。

5. 加密货币成为一切背后的底层,以及来自一线运营的稳定币案例

  • 当被问到9条年收入1亿美元的业务线中,哪一条会在5年后胜出时,Tenev换了个角度:如今加密货币看起来是一个独立资产板块,但“加密货币会成为一层,存在于一切事物背后”。稳定币利息类似储蓄账户;预测市场,比如 Polymarket,是由加密货币驱动的业务。加密钱包直到最近还没有被货币化,但将成为代币化资产的一等入口。
  • 面对 Stebbings 提到的、可能来自 Airwallex 创始人 Jack Zhang 的稳定币看空观点,Tenev不愿“走那么远”,而是给出 Robinhood 自身的运营案例:周末进行加密货币结算。当银行通道关闭、散户仍想交易“数十亿美元的加密货币”时,选择只有承担交易对手风险——交易对手越多,风险“会成倍增加”;支付昂贵的授信额度;或低效地预先备付资金。2021年的答案是“筹集大量资本并预先备付,然后希望资金够用”。现在,稳定币可以在周末即时把美元转给交易对手:“问题解决”。
  • 在美国以外,他的判断是绝对的:稳定币已经是发展中国家散户获取美元敞口最简单的方式,并且“基本淘汰了 American Express 旅行支票”。
  • 如果必须砍掉一条9位数收入线,他会选择即时提现收入,而且会很高兴:“如果你的业务归零,我不会难过,因为那意味着没人从 Robinhood 提现。”目标是消除用户把钱转到外部银行的所有理由。

6. 没有网点的私人银行:现金配送、工资入账与上探高端市场

  • 下一条产品前沿是数字私人银行,正在“非常非常快地推出”;据他所知,这是第一款从设计之初就不设网点的数字私人银行产品。标志性功能是现金配送,灵感来自“遗憾停业”的 First Republic 的装甲车服务,但目标是改造为大众市场产品:把按需配送物流与金融结合,“把网点带到用户身边”。其体验逻辑是:“没有什么比不得不去 7-Eleven 或 CVS 取现金,更能破坏私人银行的氛围。”
  • 对于其他公司尚未攻克的超高净值市场,他的保留是:“我不知道有多少人真正认真尝试过。”他的基准是自己:“我希望把所有个人金融事务都放在 Robinhood 上……我认为我们离这并不远,可能还有几年。”
  • 关于切入点,Stebbings坦承,自己曾认为相比 Revolut 的外汇业务或 Monzo 的活期账户,免佣金交易是“最轻”的切入口,而且“显然错了”。Tenev对此很宽容:这些切入口都能做成大生意。但“Robinhood的终局也包括活期账户……我们必须拿到人们的工资入账”,银行业务即将上线。他更欣赏 Revolut,而不是 Chime——“产品迭代速度、国际化规模和强势创始人”——并指出 Chime 的用户依靠工资收入维持收支平衡,“并不真正投资”。他还观察到,美国银行牌照一直“非常繁琐”;而据他所知,Revolut 在美国没有银行牌照“对他们来说也一直没问题”。

7. 从运转迟滞到快速交付机器:业务翻身的运行机制

  • 2020-21年的扩张故事是:2019年底800名员工、约2亿美元收入,到2020年底接近10亿美元——远程办公期间“业务翻了4倍”,但“事后看,我们吸收了太多人”。当时客服团队还没有AI,规模必须增长超过4倍。修复方案包括引入更优秀的人才,以及尽管公司已经转向远程优先,仍把所有人召回办公室——“这让很多人很生气”。Tenev的看法是:“我遇到过的决定,没有哪一个是单向门。”
  • 说到金融业务如何快速上线,他拒绝把问题框定为速度和安全之间的取舍:“你必须说,不,我要你高质量地完成,这意味着安全地交付;但一旦知道该做什么,就要持续、坚决地执行。”
  • 他的领导方式是自上而下确定愿景。判断是否需要自上而下决策的信号,是下属之间长期、无意中的分歧——“这可能说明某种形式的失灵”。但贴近一线的业务总经理可以“推翻我的决定……我鼓励他们对我大喊,告诉我我是个白痴”。他有15-20名直接下属,会凭直觉判断新产品,并对“情商低”的评价耸耸肩。
  • 2022年的至暗时刻是:2021年通过 IPO 和 GameStop 期间约40亿美元融资后,公司累计融资约60亿美元,但股价跌破现金价值——“人们押注我们会把现金全部浪费掉,永远无法盈利……事后看,这很冒犯”。他曾问自己,是否适合带领公司进行裁员和业务翻身,而不是继续讲增长故事;事后看来,当时做出的决定正是“我们今天正在收获其成果”的原因。

8. 享受上市、纠结预测市场,以及10年愿景

  • 尽管 Stebbings 说自己从未遇到喜欢上市的公司CEO,Tenev却喜欢成为上市公司。他把财报电话会重新定义为“赛后新闻发布会”,身后摆着公司Logo和大型麦克风;无论球队赢球还是输球都很有娱乐性,“糟糕比赛后被媒体围攻,也总是很有意思”。
  • 过去12个月里,最让他反复思考、尽管他说公司并没有大幅改变看法的领域,是预测市场——某种程度上是“我们存在的祸根”。它究竟是赌博还是投资?他认为是投资,但“很多人认为是赌博”;监管应由州政府负责,还是由 CFTC 进行联邦监管?Robinhood讨论过从独立App到全面整合的各种方案,最终选择完全整合。对于私募市场,他说:“很多人不喜欢我们在那里做的事情,但我非常有动力……我认为我们最终会胜出。”
  • 他尊重的竞争对手包括 Revolut——“它的文化非常在乎赢”;Coinbase——“我们这个领域的一家技术公司……创始人不说废话”;以及不太显眼的 Altruist——它可能专注于 RIA 托管业务,是“面向顾问的 Robinhood”,而 Robinhood 自己也在几个月前通过收购进入了这一领域。
  • 最后的愿景是,让所有人——个人或企业——都能“买卖或持有任何金融资产,或进行任何金融交易”,业务从以美国为主走向完全全球化,从只服务散户走向服务企业和机构。

1. What Line of Business Will Be the Biggest For Vlad in 5 Years Time

Vlad Tenev

Everyone likes tokenization in principle, but it's not really as attractive when it's being done to you. I think it's important for the tokenization mechanism to work without the opt-in of the companies that are being tokenized. I do think it's a big problem that a retail investor can't get access to Stripe shares. I've shared this viewpoint with Patrick and John, and they give me some variant of, “Oh, well, we're just a small Irish family company. Please don't tokenize my shares.”

2. How Robinhood 4x’d Its Market Cap in 8 Months

Harry Stebbings

Vlad, dude, it is so lovely to have you back in the studio. Do you know what's funny? When you were last in that chair, you had a market cap of $35 billion, and today I think the market cap is about $85 billion. And so it's been a pretty good 8 months.

Vlad Tenev

That was 8 months ago? Really?

Harry Stebbings

Yeah.

Vlad Tenev

Yeah, that's amazing. And I felt pretty good back then. It's always nice when the market cap goes up; things get easier. You walk a little bit straighter, and people listen to what you have to say. So, we don't look at it. Of course, that's what they tell you: you can't pay attention to it.

Harry Stebbings

Is that the biggest load of BS in the company? I'm friends with Daniel at Spotify, and it's $148 billion now. And I think he feels a lot better now—it's $148 billion.

Vlad Tenev

He does. Yeah. I think it's very difficult. I don't know if it's easier with other companies, but my product pushes stock prices into your brain by using it. It's just hard to ignore. So, I think it's especially difficult for a business like ours.

Harry Stebbings

It's the most meta thing, isn't it? It's like you guys looking at stock prices on Robinhood.

Vlad Tenev

Yeah.

Harry Stebbings

It's like talking about doing a podcast about podcasting. I did just want to start on that because it has been insane. I tweeted last night: this is kind of the story of Wall Street, bluntly, which is just this insane rise of Robinhood in the last year. If you were to put it down to 1 or 2 things, what do you think the Street has appreciated that they did not before?

Vlad Tenev

I think we've been saying the same things and articulating a strategy pretty clearly over the past 2 years, really, and I think it just takes time to understand that it's working. We've gotten fortunate in a sense that many things have worked very, very well.

Harry Stebbings

When you look at cost stabilization and reduction, to what extent is that efficient management and just becoming leaner versus AI introduction and AI being the driver of that?

Vlad Tenev

AI is a big part of it, and I think we've been pretty mum on how much we've been using it internally. I think we've been talking about it in very general terms, and we've started to roll out AI products. Actually, Robinhood Cortex, our AI system, rolled out to customers today just a little bit earlier.

3. AI Writes 50% of All Net New Code at Robinhood

But the impact that it's had on internal teams, ranging from software engineering to customer support—the really big internal teams—has been huge.

Harry Stebbings

In terms of software engineering, a likely Benioff statement was that it was 50% of Salesforce's new code today. What would you say yours is?

4. Why Robinhood Built a Secret ChatGPT for Support

Vlad Tenev

I think that sounds right. It's difficult to say with these agentic systems, right? We've moved from GitHub Copilot, which is an autocomplete system, to Cursor, and now things like Windsurf, where all of the code is written by AI. The adoption rate within engineering for us is close to 100%. So, it's hard to even determine what the human-generated code is. If I had to guess, it's the minority.

5. “We Were Shipping Nothing”: Vlad on the 2020–2022 Culture Crisis

Harry Stebbings

Totally get that. Customer-support-wise, you said that's the other big pillar.

Vlad Tenev

I think we're best-in-class there, actually. Even stronger than the dedicated customer-support AI companies in terms of what we've done there.

Harry Stebbings

And so you've built your own, or do you use off-the-shelf?

Vlad Tenev

We've built our own.

Harry Stebbings

Wow. Why did you decide that versus using off-the-shelf?

Vlad Tenev

Well, first of all, when we started, the off-the-shelf companies, like Sierra, for instance, were just getting off the ground. The big companies that we were using—we were a big Salesforce customer—were not as developed yet, and so we built a lot of things.

For a company like Robinhood, a lot of the complex work is in system integration. It's getting all of the data to answer customers' queries, and we're starting to do actions. Based on your query, we need to do some kind of action, and that requires a deep level of integration with our back-end systems that I think most vendors haven't really figured out how to do yet.

Harry Stebbings

Why have you been quiet around it when the Street clearly appreciates AI-efficiency stories within public companies?

Vlad Tenev

Yeah, I think we've been thinking about how to tell the story better, and one of the things we've been thinking about is: should we just have an event, like a product event, like we just had in the South of France?

Harry Stebbings

Oh, that sucks for a location, dude. Where are we going to choose? Let's do the South of France.

Vlad Tenev

Yeah. Well, it's probably not going to be in the South of France again because we just did that, but there's lots of great places to have events. And I think there's now enough meat and enough things that we can talk about that it would actually be a really cool event.

Harry Stebbings

Would you ever make your customer-support tool a SaaS product that you would open-source to everyone? Revolut has now done this with its HR tool.

Vlad Tenev

Yeah. We've had discussions about that internally. I think the challenge is that the value is in the deep integration with our proprietary data, and I don't know if we want to get in the business of going into companies and doing deep integrations with their proprietary data.

But generally, I ask the question for everything: if we build a great tool internally, can we actually make it available as a service to others? Because that's the way to ensure that it stays great. There's external pressure from customers, not just internal teams. So, I'm a huge fan of that type of platformization.

Harry Stebbings

Where do you think AI is not where you would most like it to be?

Vlad Tenev

I think there's still a problem with hallucinations, and there's a lot of work that needs to be done to scaffold against that. That's actually one of the things that was the origin for the company that I'm chairman of, Harmonic. Can we design a system that prevents hallucinations by design and ensures that every step of the reasoning is logical and follows from the previous one?

6. The One Customer Type That Transformed the Business

I think that entails a different approach to generating AI output, one where every piece of output is checked before it comes out and there's a very clear measure of correctness. So, I think that's going to be an interesting system that will change everything.

Harry Stebbings

We're going to get to Harmonic because it's super exciting, and congrats on the Series B. Super exciting there.

Vlad Tenev

Thank you.

Harry Stebbings

The product expansion has been insane. I spoke to Neal Mohan specifically before, who said about the speed of product build. When we look at it, though, you started with young first-time traders, added options and crypto, attracted maybe higher-risk profiles, then speculative traders, high-volume spec traders. Robinhood Gold and Cash Management led to more.

I guess my question is: how do you think about the different customer profile types you serve today, and how has that changed over time in your thinking, given the massive product expansion recently?

Vlad Tenev

I think there's 1 big change, which is that recently we started thinking about not just the millennial and Gen Z customer, but also the active trader—the digitally native active trader—and that's a very different type of profile.

These are folks that you can almost think of as having some similarity with gamers. They've got the screens, the headphones, the fancy keyboards, and they're just locked in. They're locked into their system, and they have very specific needs. They need to be at the frontier of technology and innovation. They care about speed. They care about latency. And we really had to get into that customer's head to design products like our futures ladder and Robinhood Legend.

Harry Stebbings

Why did you decide that was a market that you wanted to go after?

Vlad Tenev

We were aware of this being a market that was important to us back in 2019, but we weren't really doing much about it. We had our strategy: we're going to make an extremely simple-to-use mobile app with zero commissions. And we were targeting first-timers because the thesis was, well, first-timers would benefit from this. They like ease of use, and commissions are really a big barrier if you're starting with $100.

Harry Stebbings

That wouldn't have been possible before.

Vlad Tenev

And what happened was, when we went live, we started getting active traders that were high volume, incidentally, without actually going after that customer base. And that was because the value prop of zero commissions was so strong that if you were someone that was paying $1,000 a month in commissions, you would do all of the fancy research elsewhere and just do your trading on Robinhood.

The value prop was strong even though it wasn't explicitly designed for that. And so we built an active-trader business incidentally without even trying. We were aware of this. We were like, “Wow, a lot of our revenue, which is much higher than we anticipated when we modeled this first-time-investor business, is driven by a well-defined, circumscribed chunk of our customers.” And we ignored that for a while because what we were doing was working very, very well.

But in 2022, it became apparent that we weren't treating this customer base well. They were even more important because they're actually resilient since they're active. They have bearish strategies. When the market's moving down, they remain active; when the market's moving sideways, they can do multi-leg options.

From that point on, we realized we weren't serving them well. They were turning to other platforms; they were outgrowing us. So we put some of our most hardcore people on the task of making Robinhood the best platform for active traders, and not just serving them incidentally.

I think that was actually the number 1 reason behind our business turnaround. It's realizing that that was actually the core of our business and that we had to invest in it in order to have resources to do other things.

7. “CoreWeave Is Retail’s Way Into AI” - The Meme Stock Defense

Harry Stebbings

Well, do you think the memeification of stocks is a good thing or not?

Vlad Tenev

What do you mean by the memeification of stocks?

Harry Stebbings

When you have things that bluntly take public attention and really capture the zeitgeist, like—I think you've bluntly put the cool and the culture in them, actually, at this point—but the GameStops of the world, is that a good thing because it actually brings more people into markets? They can learn. They're entering the market for the first time.

Or is it fundamentally bad because, bluntly, it's inflated? It's not artificially inflated because it is real, but it's not based on fundamentals.

Vlad Tenev

I think that people are buying these stocks generally for a very different reason than a meme coin, for example, or even GameStop back in 2021. I think they legitimately believe that these are going to be gigantic industries.

CoreWeave, for instance, is one of the few opportunities that, as a public markets investor, you can actually buy into AI and the growth of the AI industry. If you think about it, what are your options if you want to invest in AI as a retail investor? You've got Nvidia.

Harry Stebbings

AMD.

Vlad Tenev

Yeah, I mean, AMD, but really Nvidia is $4 trillion, right? You've got Tesla, where AI is maybe—I don't know—10% to 20% of the story there. So you don't have too many opportunities at sub-trillion valuations.

When CoreWeave comes along, that's AI exposure at a lower level, and people are interested in that. And then Circle—you have the stablecoin industry, right? People are betting that that's going to be a big thing. That's sort of clean exposure to stablecoins.

Harry Stebbings

In terms of the availability of exposure, you guys did this fascinating new product, so to speak, in terms of the tokenization of private companies. Talk to me about the decision around that new product. Take me to that room. What was the discussion like, and how did you come to the decision that this was a product you wanted to do?

Vlad Tenev

Yeah, I mean, it was very clear from the beginning. I actually wrote an article in The Washington Post in January that argued for tokenization.

Harry Stebbings

You said tokenization will be the biggest innovation in finance in the last decade.

Vlad Tenev

Yeah. Yeah, I said that yesterday. It wasn't quite as clear, I guess, back in January for my Washington Post op-ed, but I think there are 2 benefits of tokenization that are very, very extreme.

One is, like stablecoins, it's going to be the easiest way to get exposure to U.S. assets if you're outside of the U.S. Stablecoins are very popular outside the U.S. for people who want to get their hands on dollars. In the same way, I think stock tokens will become the best way to get exposure to U.S. stocks and other assets. So that's the ex-U.S. use case.

The use case that's going to be very powerful even within the U.S., where we actually have decent access through Robinhood and other things to U.S. stocks, is illiquid assets that have not been successfully made tradable or accessible to retail, like private companies, but also real estate and even things like art.

So I think in the U.S. that is actually very meaningful, and we wanted to demonstrate that we have the technology built to do this outside the U.S. I mean, it works, and all that's left is just details and, in the U.S., regulatory clarity.

So we wanted to start with the 2 companies that I think are significant, hard to get, challenging, but also in demand, and that's SpaceX and OpenAI, which, incidentally, were the 2 that I used as examples when I wrote my opinion piece on this.

8. Inside Robinhood’s Tokenized Private Shares Product

Harry Stebbings

I totally agree. I have more LPs than ever calling me about access to both of them, so I completely agree with you in terms of those being the demand side. The question I have for you is, just so I actually understand: if it's a token, it's not equity, or it is a reflection of equity? What am I actually buying?

Vlad Tenev

Yeah. I'd say the analogy is to a stablecoin. Basically, if you think about it, we have some traditional assets in a box. We tokenize that 1-for-1, and the tokens actually get put on blockchains where they're tradable.

For stablecoins, Circle, for example, has some U.S. Treasury bills and notes in a box that back the tokens that are freely tradable. So in this way, we have access to private company shares or other types of exposure.

OpenAI doesn't have shares. They're a nonprofit, so they have profit participation units and convertible interest securities that give shares upon a successful conversion to a for-profit. OpenAI is particularly complicated, but you can think of it as exposure in an SPV, like a traditional instrument that then gets held by Robinhood, tokenized, and given to retail.

Harry Stebbings

They were a little bit upset by this.

Vlad Tenev

Yes.

Harry Stebbings

Were you surprised that they were upset by it? But do you think that was unfair?

Vlad Tenev

I thought part of it was unfair. They issued a statement that said, “Please be careful,” which I thought was a little bit gratuitous. But I think it could have been worse.

I understand from OpenAI's perspective that they've got a lot of stuff going on. They're trying to convert to a for-profit. The last thing they want to deal with is some guy tokenizing their stocks. They don't even understand exactly how that works, but it's sort of a confusing distraction at best.

But I would say it's in line with their mission. Their stated mission is to build artificial general intelligence and make sure it benefits all of humanity. So one way to make sure it benefits all of humanity and not just executives and wealthy investors is to make humanity have ownership of it, which up until now hasn't been possible.

Some of the most important companies of our time have not been accessible to retail, and I think that's a huge problem.

Harry Stebbings

Is there anything that you would have done differently about the launch or the messaging?

Vlad Tenev

I think there are always things to learn. For example, I think this statement that it was somehow unsafe was not very positive for us. If you look at OpenAI Newsroom's Twitter, this was actually the most popular tweet that they had ever tweeted. It had the most likes and reposts, which surprised me.

I didn't quite think it would resonate so much. It's so new, so I don't know if I would have done much differently.

I think the problem is everyone likes tokenization in principle, right? But it's not really as attractive when it's being done to you. It's sort of like digital NIMBYism, right? Everyone's like, “Oh, great. Tokenization. Can I make it happen over there?”

The problem that's happened in private markets in general is the best companies have lots of options. They can raise money from anywhere, so they don't consider retail. That leads to this adverse selection problem where, basically, the only companies tapping retail are the ones that don't have any other options.

That's why all of the initiatives to give access to retail to these opportunities have failed thus far. So I think it's important for the tokenization mechanism to work without the opt-in of the companies that are being tokenized.

I think that's actually the innovation that we've been able to drive. We figured out how to make this work without actually having the companies opt in.

Harry Stebbings

Are you fearful that regulation will stop that? Because if it works, this could be the biggest line of revenue in your business.

Vlad Tenev

No, I think it could be big. I would say that in the EU, it's pretty clear. The EU has clear crypto-asset regulation in the form of MiCA.

In the U.S., more work needs to be done for sure. There are 2 elements to it: accredited-investor laws and crypto laws, both of which need to happen in order to truly unlock this.

My belief is part of the reason why we're demonstrating this in the EU, aside from just giving our EU customers access to all these amazing products, is that it could show the rest of the world that there's real value here.

You heard the SEC Chair Paul Atkins say, “Tokenization is an innovation, and the SEC has to stop putting up roadblocks and start embracing these innovative technologies.” So I think we've got support from both sides, in effect, to improve this.

9. “Capital as a Service” - Vlad’s Wild Vision for Startup Fundraising

Harry Stebbings

How do you think about inventory? And what I mean by that is, you mentioned the 2 there that are kind of the gold standard. Could you go as low as a Series B?

When you look at Harmonic, I know you announced a round today. a16z did it, Kleiner Perkins did it, and you're the chairman. There are a lot of people who would love to buy into that Harmonic token right now if you put it on Robinhood.

Does it go that low? How do you think about where the line ends in terms of accessibility?

Vlad Tenev

It's a great question. The intent would be to go as low as possible.

If you talk to crypto people, crypto people will tell you, “Well, the future is on-chain issuance. What you’re doing right now is not ideal compared to on-chain issuance, where the equity goes on-chain from the very beginning.” What I tell them is nobody gives a shit about on-chain issuance. The only place where people are even thinking about on-chain issuance is in your head.

What people want is capital as a service. If you’re an entrepreneur, you want capital in your bank account quickly and with as little friction as possible. I think that’s where this eventually ends. You should be able to go on Robinhood, or maybe other services as well, upload some information, and actually compete in a marketplace. There will be market pressure to make the information as clear and compelling as possible.

You push a button, and then money enters your bank account, and you can get back to running your business. I think that’s the logical conclusion. It’s capital at all stages, but perhaps the most interesting is the earliest stages. If we succeed in doing this, there will be more startups. It’ll become easier to create a startup.

I think it actually pays homage to what crowdfunding always promised to be.

Harry Stebbings

Yeah, but never actually was. So, I totally get that. What does that look like, then, in terms of the rollout for the next 6 to 12 months of tokenization, and what assets you tokenize, when, and how you do it?

Vlad Tenev

What’s live right now in Europe, fully live, is public stocks, and we’ve got 200-plus of all the big ones. We’re going to continue to roll that out and get to thousands. We will make the private stocks tradable as well, so we’ll get those—

Harry Stebbings

Inventory. Sorry, just pause there. Why does inventory matter in the thousands? When you actually look at trading volumes and see the concentration of names that trading volumes go toward, do you need much more than 200?

Vlad Tenev

I think that you never know what’s going to become popular. There’s always a long tail, and something happens in a random company, and it’s interesting. We don’t really want to be in the business of picking winners and losers or deciding what stocks you want to buy.

We’d like to keep it simple and just say, generally speaking, if it’s listed, we’d like to actually offer it. There have been issues where, unfortunately, sub-dollar stocks are left listed for too long, and some of these have turned into scams. I think that’s a problem we’d like the listing exchanges to deal with.

We’ve had to deviate from that to some degree, but ideally, if it’s listed, we just turn it on and we’re good to go.

Harry Stebbings

So, we move from 200 to 1,000 there. Great. What else?

Vlad Tenev

There are a couple of things. On the public stock token side, this product will progress in a couple of stages. We’re in stage 1, where every time we mint or burn a new token, we actually go to the market—to Nasdaq or likely NYSE, an actual exchange—for every trade.

Every time you buy, a new one is minted. The second phase is that we put these tokens on Bitstamp, our exchange. Then you can trade the tokens directly against other cryptos and dollars. That needs stage 1 because we need to have a significant number of these tokens minted before we can enable the liquidity.

10. The $100M Revenue Line Vlad Wishes He Could Kill

Phase 2 unlocks 24/7 trading. In phase 3, you can actually interface with the blockchain directly and self-custody. You can do all the collateralized lending and borrowing, all the DeFi, and self-custody. That’s when things start to get really interesting. I think the crypto wallet will be a first-class experience for all these tokenized assets.

Harry Stebbings

Is that a $100 million revenue line for you? Because you have 9 products that are $100 million revenue lines. Now—

Vlad Tenev

The crypto wallet, up until recently, has not even been monetized. I think we’re just starting to monetize it.

Harry Stebbings

When you look at the 9, which do you think is most underappreciated?

Vlad Tenev

I guess I don’t really even think about it that way. We break it down as 9 revenue streams, but I just think of it as: We get customers, customers become Robinhood Gold subscribers, and once you’re a Robinhood Gold subscriber, we get you to use all of our products and increase your average revenue per user on the platform.

We do break it up into business lines, but it’s sort of a map of the world, right? What I really care about is the reality of how many customers we get, how much money they’re putting into the platform, and whether we’re serving all of their financial needs. You can slice and dice it in lots of different ways, but if they’re putting all their money into Robinhood, I think we’re happy.

Harry Stebbings

In 5 years’ time, which do you think will be the biggest revenue generator?

Vlad Tenev

I think crypto is interesting because right now crypto is this separate segment of the business. We look at it, and the outside world perceives it as a different asset, right? It’s like, “How big is your crypto business going to be relative to, say, your options business or equities business?” It’s very much, “This is a separate asset that you’re trading.”

But what we’re starting to see already is that crypto is going to be this layer behind everything. Everything is going to be powered by crypto to some degree.

Harry Stebbings

What do you mean by that, just so I understand?

Vlad Tenev

I’ll just give you an example. Right now, Robinhood Gold has an interest component where you can earn interest on your cash. As we get stablecoins out, crypto will have that as well. You’ll be able to earn interest on your stablecoins, and that’ll be a significant business. You might consider that part of crypto, but that’s something akin to a savings account.

Prediction markets, over time—you see overseas things like Polymarket. That’s a prediction markets business, but it’s also powered by crypto.

Harry Stebbings

The joy of me is I have no ego, so I’m not afraid to ask very stupid questions. I hang out with likely Jack Zhang from Airwallex, who—I don’t know if you know him—but he’s fucking brilliant, like one of the most underappreciated founders.

He’s very negative on the future of stablecoins. How do you see the next 3 years of stablecoins, and would you share his negativity?

Vlad Tenev

I don’t know if I would go that far. There are definitely use cases. I’ll just give you an example: Robinhood uses stablecoins for our corporate purposes. We have this use case where we trade a lot of crypto, and that requires settling with counterparties.

When our customers buy a bunch of Bitcoin, we have counterparties that we have to send dollars to, and they send us the Bitcoin back. During market hours, Monday through Friday, everything works fine because we can settle intraday. We can wire them dollars, they send us the crypto to our wallets, and everything’s fine.

But what happens on a weekend? What happens on a weekend where the banking rails are closed, something’s happening in the crypto markets, and we’ve got retail customers that want to buy billions of dollars of crypto? You have a difficult situation, potentially, because we can’t move the money.

Either you have to take counterparty risk—meaning you have to trust that one side will deliver the dollars eventually, when they can, and send them the crypto ahead of time—which is a tough one, because counterparty risk multiplies if you have lots of counterparties. Or you have to have lines of credit with your counterparties, which are expensive. Or you have to prefund the bank accounts that you have, which can be different.

All the counterparties tend to have different bank accounts, unless you force them to centralize. You have to prefund and plan for what could be an insane amount of volume, and that’s very capital-inefficient. But stablecoins—

Harry Stebbings

You have goosebumps listening to these different options. That’s fucked.

Vlad Tenev

Yeah, they’re not good options. We had to deal with this in 2021, and our solution was to raise lots of capital and prefund, and hope that it was enough, right?

But now, with stablecoins, we can just send the dollars over the weekend. They instantly get to our counterparties, and they can send the crypto back. Problem solved. That’s a real use case, and that’s led to us adopting it.

The 24/7 movement of dollars in real time is a real thing. I don’t think you can argue that, outside of the US, particularly in developing countries, stablecoins have become the easiest way for retail customers to get access to dollars. I think that’s a real thing.

They’ve basically obsoleted American Express travelers’ checks, which foreigners and people in countries with depreciating currencies would stockpile to preserve their money.

Harry Stebbings

Are you ready for a really unfair one?

Vlad Tenev

Let’s see it.

Harry Stebbings

Of the 9 products that do $100 million in revenue, if I forced you to shut 1 down today because of focus, which would you shut down?

Vlad Tenev

Oh, good question. I’ll tell you 1 that I wouldn’t mind disappearing over time: instant withdrawals revenue.

We make money from customers withdrawing money from Robinhood into their bank account instantly. It’s a good business for us.

Harry Stebbings

How big a business is that?

Vlad Tenev

I want to say this is 9 figures.

Yeah, we can check that, but I think that's one of them, either by itself or in combination with some related thing. But yeah, it's a big business, and we've got a GM there who is very proud of this business. He hates when I say this, but I tell him, “Hey, if your business goes to zero, I would not be upset because that would mean nobody's withdrawing money from Robinhood.” If it's just that everyone keeps their money in Robinhood all the time, we feel pretty good.

One of our goals is to remove all reasons why someone would want to move their money out to an external bank account.

Harry Stebbings

Great answer. That's a phenomenal one. It's like being in a job interview and being asked for your biggest weakness, and you're like, “I just work too hard.” Okay, me and you've got a whiteboard. We're planning a new product.

Vlad Tenev

Chalkboard, please.

Harry Stebbings

Oh God, I hate chalkboards. They remind me of school. What product have you not done that you would most like to do in financial services?

Vlad Tenev

Private markets is one that I've been very excited about. I think we have a plan to do it. The time between having an idea and executing on it with a new product has decreased quite a bit.

If you told me 6 months ago that I'd be sitting here embroiled in some controversy because I've tokenized private markets and we've been able to deliver that to customers, I would have been surprised. But the team has been executing unbelievably well.

I think what we talked about earlier, which is still in the future, of having this capital-as-a-service offering—you just press a button and money is deposited in your account, whether it be a business account or a personal account—I think that would be quite meaningful.

Harry Stebbings

The one that no one can crack and everyone wants to—people have tried. Nik at Revolut wants it. It's the ultra-high-net-worth and the super-high-net-worth people who are with Goldman, likely Pictet, or likely J.P. Morgan. Do you want that market?

Vlad Tenev

Yeah, and I think we're interested in that market.

Harry Stebbings

How do you win it where others haven't?

Vlad Tenev

I don't know if a lot of people have really tried very hard, to be fair. I think that people making $100,000 is a very nice market, too. It can be very tempting to go up and say, “Okay, why don't we serve the people making $1 million, $5 million, ultra-high-net-worth? If you can literally be my family office...”

11. Robinhood Is Building... Cash Delivery Trucks?!

I think that is an attractive proposition, and actually, that's my goal. I'd like to have all of my personal stuff on Robinhood. I don't think we're very far from being able to service my needs adequately—maybe a couple of years.

Harry Stebbings

What do we not have today that we do need to service your needs?

Vlad Tenev

Private banking, which, by the way, we're rolling out. It's happening very, very quickly. To my knowledge, this is the first digital private banking product. Private banking has been a very brick-and-mortar experience; all of the features require a branch. Nobody's been able to crack how to deliver that service without a branch.

I'll give you an example: cash delivery. I don't know if you heard about this cash delivery innovation, which I'm very excited about.

Harry Stebbings

Please tell me.

Vlad Tenev

Yeah. One thing that high-net-worth individuals have access to from private banking is a cash truck. I was floored by this when I got to the level where this could happen. First Republic Bank, which is now sadly defunct, had a service where cash would be delivered to your house, so you didn't have to go to an ATM. They offered it for larger amounts of cash, and it would come in an armored vehicle.

Harry Stebbings

I don't know anyone that has ordered a cash delivery in the thousands from a cash truck. I'm with Goldman. I don't think they do cash trucks. Is that actually a thing?

Vlad Tenev

It was a thing. It was why we loved First Republic Bank, because going to the bank and going to an ATM is annoying. It's much more convenient to have the cash brought to you.

Harry Stebbings

Do you still use cash?

Vlad Tenev

Yeah.

Harry Stebbings

Wow. For what?

Vlad Tenev

Tipping.

Harry Stebbings

Oh, you Americans. No, this is an American thing. Huh? Why do you need, like, $50,000 in cash?

Vlad Tenev

You've got to tip. I have a lot of people that give me services, and you've got to tip them all. It's amazing. I also have people that work for me who use services, and they have to tip people, too. So there's a whole operation.

Harry Stebbings

So you're going to do cash trucks.

Vlad Tenev

So what we asked ourselves was—

Harry Stebbings

Amazing branding. Can you imagine, like, Dollar Hood cash trucks?

Vlad Tenev

Well, Citi's, yeah. I don't think we want to operate the trucks, but we asked ourselves what this would look like if it were a mass-market product. Not everyone needs an armored truck going to their house, and that's quite expensive. But everyone gets a DoorDash or a Deliveroo like you have here, right?

Can we solve the problem of needing to go to an ATM and just get the cash delivered to you, either if you're at your house or if you're out somewhere and you need cash? This has happened to me a lot. My wife gets her haircut, she wants to pay in cash, and then I have to go look for an ATM. It's annoying.

So yeah, we're going to solve that problem by combining the logistics of on-demand delivery with all the work that we're doing in finance, and you'll get cash delivered to your house. Actually, with digital banking without a branch, nobody's been able to figure out how to handle the ATM problem, right? Nothing ruins the private banking vibe more than having to go to a 7-Eleven or a CVS to withdraw cash. It's not a premium experience.

You also don't want to send customers to some other bank. I'm sure Citi is great, but I don't want my customers going to Citi if they're a private banking customer. So how do you do a branchless experience? People still have these needs where you have to go to a branch. Well, you should bring the branch to the person. That's a thread we're going to pull on.

That's what high-net-worth individuals have: people coming to their houses for all of their needs. If you need a notary, they show up at your house. If you need to buy a watch, they'll show up at your house. That's the goal. I think that's how we have to deliver it to our customers.

Harry Stebbings

The thing I think is so interesting with your business is the different insertion points that different players have taken. If you look at yours, commission-free trading was your insertion point into the first customer base. When you look at Revolut, FX is the core. When you look at Monzo, it's actually just the current account, which is a hard one to get first, but the current account was core. And then each expands from there.

If I'm totally honest—and I hope I can say this, knowing you a little bit over the years now—I thought yours was kind of the lightest in terms of commission-free trading. It felt like a looser insertion point, but I was clearly wrong when I look at what you've done. Why has commission-free trading actually been the best insertion point, or was it not? Was it just execution alone?

Vlad Tenev

Yeah, I think that's a good question. I think that you could build a big business with all of these insertion points, right? And these guys have—I mean, Monzo and Revolut have done very, very well. Big, impressive businesses. I do think eventually—

Harry Stebbings

Do you worry more about Revolut or Chime?

Vlad Tenev

I think I'm more impressed by Revolut. Revolut's got product velocity, international scale, and a strong founder—an impressive guy. I don't think we butt into each other very much, but I think it's going to be more.

Chime we don't butt into each other very much either, because they're targeting sort of paycheck-to-paycheck customers. Their customers aren't really investing. But we'd like to get in there, too. We'd like to continue to go down-market and eventually serve someone that doesn't have money to invest.

I do think that the end state of Robinhood involves the current account as well. We have to get people's paychecks. It's just easier that way if you can have everything go through Robinhood.

Harry Stebbings

What is the timeline to that, do you think?

Vlad Tenev

Well, banking is rolling out very, very soon—I mean, imminently, depending on when this is coming out—to the first customers.

Harry Stebbings

How do you think about the regulatory tactics that have been used by Monzo, Revolut, and Starling, where they've really gone for the banking license? When you sit back and analyze that, how do you reflect on it?

Vlad Tenev

I think it's different depending on the jurisdiction. In the US, a banking license has traditionally been very onerous. I mean, you have folks in your board meetings approving new products, so that's tough.

Harry Stebbings

You do in the UK, Monzo.

Vlad Tenev

Yeah, yeah. And Revolut, to my knowledge, doesn't have a banking license here, and it's been fine for them.

Harry Stebbings

Well, bluntly, it's been the advantage: it's enabled a product velocity that Monzo wasn't able to have because they had regulatory capital provisions, which meant they couldn't move that fast.

Vlad Tenev

Yeah, but banks—there are certain advantages in the other direction. If you want to be someone's bank, you can say that we're a bank. Some people really care about that.

Harry Stebbings

You know, Neil at Mettle is, I think, a very dear friend of yours, and he responded when I asked him, “I LOVE VLAD.” All caps, actually, and it made me very happy. He asked very specifically, “How did Vlad go from a culture and company that shipped almost nothing”—sorry, those were his words—“to now shipping at the most extraordinary pace?” Be as specific as possible.

Vlad Tenev

We were kind of gummed up in 2020 and 2021, just trying to scale. At the end of 2019, we had 800 employees and maybe $200 million or so in annual revenue. Still a big business, but by the end of 2020, we had close to $1 billion in annual revenue. We quadrupled the business, roughly, and that was tough because it happened while we were remote and dealing with the pandemic.

We hired all these people, and I think in hindsight we ingested too many people. It became hard to operate, and these were new people who didn’t know how to work with us. We were all remote, and we also had to scale customer support. This was before AI, so if we quadrupled our customer base, we had to more than quadruple our customer support team because, frankly, we weren’t even doing a great job with the folks we had back in the day.

It was about making sure we had really, really good talent. That involved some cultural changes to reorient the company post-COVID and bring people back into the office so we could onboard better.

Harry Stebbings

How important is being in person? I make sure everyone’s in person for all of our companies.

Vlad Tenev

I’m a big in-person bull in general. I think we’ve operated much better since we went back, and it was actually very painful for us because we went remote-first. I had to pull that back entirely, which pissed a lot of people off.

Harry Stebbings

Is it as bad as you think? A lot of people say, “I can’t pull it back.” I think very few doors are actually one-way.

Vlad Tenev

Totally. No, there are no one-way doors that I’ve encountered. It can be done, and we’ve done it, which I think is a great example.

Harry Stebbings

Okay, so we’re back in the office and we have new personnel. Is there anything that you’ve done to really supercharge product delivery, iteration, and shipping?

Vlad Tenev

I think making sure that everyone feels accountable to their business results is important. There are probably 12 little things that you just go and do. If you really want to ship fast and deliver fast, you have to orient your culture toward optimizing for that.

I think it’s difficult in financial services especially because you also have to protect people’s money and be safe. I think it’s important not to treat these two things as if they counterbalance each other: “Oh, well, we can’t ship fast because that compromises safety.” You have to say, “No, I want you to do it at high quality, which means delivering it safely, but also, once you know what to do, executing relentlessly.”

Harry Stebbings

That’s relatively like Steve Jobs: “No, I want it beautiful and fast.” I totally understand that. What’s your framework for deciding which new products to do versus not do?

Vlad Tenev

I think I follow my intuition quite a bit.

Harry Stebbings

Do you agree with the dictatorial style of leadership?

Vlad Tenev

Which kind?

Harry Stebbings

Dictatorial, top-down.

Vlad Tenev

I think certain things have to be top-down for sure. The vision has to be top-down.

Harry Stebbings

How many direct reports do you have?

Vlad Tenev

I think it’s about 15 to 20. You know when it’s necessary because it’s very clear when something needs to be top-down: You have people who aren’t agreeing with things; they’re disagreeing with each other. If that goes on for too long and it’s not intentional, that’s probably a sign of some form of dysfunction. That’s when you need to be top-down.

But I don’t think you have to be top-down to an extreme degree. I think that’s the difficult part. What I try to do is be clear about where we’re going and what the end state is, and give people who are in the details and can focus on their thing a lot of autonomy in how to achieve the actual thing. Then they become owners of it. They become accountable to it.

I wouldn’t be top-down and dictate exactly how everything is done. For some things, I’ll have opinions, like the products that I’m very close to, how the events are done, and how it’s announced. But I want to make it clear that my GMs, the product leaders, and the folks who are close to the ground can overrule me. I encourage them to actually yell at me and tell me I’m being an idiot when they think so.

Harry Stebbings

What element of your leadership do you know is bad but continue to do regardless?

Vlad Tenev

I think I’ve been accused of having low emotional intelligence.

Harry Stebbings

Do you work on that, or do you just accept that, hey, that’s part of me?

Vlad Tenev

I try to work on it a little bit. It’s always possible that I’m inept, but I don’t know. I consider myself somewhat emotionally intelligent.

Harry Stebbings

Do you tie your happiness to the performance of the company?

Vlad Tenev

I try not to, but it’s sometimes hard to avoid. Just think about it: I’m pretty happy now. In 2022, I was kind of in the dumps, and it took an inordinate amount of effort to climb out of that.

Harry Stebbings

I can’t remember who it was, but someone asked, “Did you ever feel in the dumps that it actually wouldn’t work?”

Vlad Tenev

That it actually wouldn’t work? I guess, as a relative question, I never really felt like the company was in danger of going bankrupt or anything. The good thing about 2022 is that we’d raised $6 billion in cash in 2021.

Harry Stebbings

Which can be a good thing and a bad thing, but we had this before you went public?

Vlad Tenev

This was after we went public. 2022 was after we went public. We raised a bunch of cash in the IPO—I think $1.5 billion to $2 billion—but also during GameStop we raised around $4 billion, so we had a lot of cash.

It was painful, though, and I did ask myself whether I was the person to do this because I went from leading a growing startup that went public, and that was a nice capstone. Many people consider going public to be sort of an—

Harry Stebbings

End goal in and of itself.

Vlad Tenev

And then I was administering a reduction in force and leading a turnaround.

Harry Stebbings

Do you like being public? I’ve never met a public CEO who actually likes it.

Vlad Tenev

I like being public, actually.

Harry Stebbings

You do? Why?

Vlad Tenev

I do. I think it’s great because we’ve flipped, in my head at least, from thinking about all the public-company stuff, like earnings and all of that, as a nuisance to seeing it as a fun opportunity to connect with our community of shareholders and retail investors.

If you look at our recent earnings calls—I don’t know if you’ve seen them—we have quite a lot of fun.

Harry Stebbings

I’ve got them.

Vlad Tenev

The vision is like a postgame press conference. I’ve got the Robinhood logos behind me and the big mics.

Harry Stebbings

Yeah.

Vlad Tenev

It’s basically like postgame press conferences, which are a lot of fun. They’re fun if the team wins or if the team loses because, if the team wins, you’ve got them wearing the nice designer clothes. They’re feeling confident and talking well. If you’re rooting for the team, you want to see them win.

If they lose, sometimes you get dirt about players not pulling their weight. They come in with the towel over their shoulder and they’re getting railed by the press: “You played badly. Why did you not get any assists? Why did you only score 7 points?” Getting a star player railed on by the media after a terrible game is always entertaining. This is really the business equivalent of that.

Harry Stebbings

Do you think Stripe should go public?

Vlad Tenev

I think two things. Stripe can do whatever it wants, and obviously they can raise infinite amounts of capital from the private markets to run their business. I do think it’s a big problem that a retail investor can’t get access to Stripe shares, which has been a category-defining company.

I’ve shared this viewpoint with Patrick and John, and they give me some variant of, “Oh, well, we’re just a small Irish family company. Yeah, please don’t tokenize my shares.” So we’ll see.

Harry Stebbings

I absolutely love that. Dude, I’d love to do a quick-fire round. I could spend all day talking to you. What have you changed your mind on most in the last 12 months?

Vlad Tenev

In the past 12 months, the area that has led to a lot of thinking—I don’t know if we’ve changed our mind on it too much; we’re kind of barreling ahead—is prediction markets.

Prediction markets are an interesting category of thing. Some people consider it gambling, so you have the whole “Is it gambling or is it investing?” controversy that we’re continuing to contend with. It’s the bane of our existence to some degree. I believe it’s investing. Many people believe that it’s gambling.

There’s also the question of whether it’s going to be state-regulated or CFTC- and federally regulated like a future. We have lots of debates about what that looks like in our product, from separate apps, a separate tab, and a separate brand to the other spectrum: just fully integrated. That’s basically the direction we’ve gone.

That’s a heady one. That one’s at the frontier. Private markets, I’m guessing, are going to be tough to navigate. There are a lot of people who don’t like what we’re doing there, but I’m quite motivated to actually make that work.

12. The One Competitor Vlad Actually Respects

So, I think we'll ultimately prevail there.

Harry Stebbings

Which competitor do you most respect, and why them?

Vlad Tenev

I think Revolut is a good one. Revolut—you can tell the culture is in a good place. That's the kind of company that cares a lot about winning. I think it's pretty clear, so I respect them tremendously.

I respect Coinbase. I think they're a technology company in our space. We come across them quite a bit, and we collaborate in some ways. But, you know, they're led by a no-bullshit founder. I think they've done very well. I think there are a lot of smaller players that are also hungry and doing well.

Harry Stebbings

Any that are non-obvious but super interesting?

Vlad Tenev

I think Altruist is somewhat interesting as a competitor. Have you heard of Altruist?

Harry Stebbings

No.

Vlad Tenev

Yeah. So, it's funny. It's great—we have all these competitors in all these different fields.

Harry Stebbings

Well, you do everything, dude. There's quite a lot to compete with.

Vlad Tenev

Yeah. So, Altruist is kind of our competitor in the likely RIA custody business. This is sort of the products we offer to advisers to serve their end clients. Their pitch was, “We're Robinhood for advisers.” They do some things very, very well, and we believe we can be Robinhood for advisers.

They have a CEO who's a good-looking guy. He's kind of hanging around all these advisory conferences. We entered that space via acquisition a couple of months ago, so that should be interesting.

Harry Stebbings

We booked this in yesterday, right? I stalked the shit out of you. You'll be impressed, I think, by the level of stalking the shit out of you I did. Let's see.

I hear that you now have a personal trainer, and you didn't for many years. You solo-trained for many years.

Vlad Tenev

Well, you didn't see my Men's Health article, did you?

Harry Stebbings

No.

Vlad Tenev

So, I was in Men's Health about a year and a half ago. I didn't get the cover, unfortunately, which I thought was very disappointing. I think I deserve it.

Harry Stebbings

I didn't have the money back then. I don't know how much they're worth.

Vlad Tenev

I can order you a cash truck if you'd like one. But anyway, there's a Men's Health feature on me working out with my trainer. I think for that one, I deadlifted close to 400 pounds, but they showed the picture of me deadlifting 135 for some reason.

Harry Stebbings

We're going to put this up right here. It's going to be beautifully visualized for this video. Wow. Well done.

Vlad Tenev

Thank you.

Harry Stebbings

So, how did training change?

Vlad Tenev

I started working with a trainer. I had a bad back injury right around the time I had my first child. I was lifting incredibly heavy weights, and I popped a disc in my back. I had surgery scheduled because I literally couldn't get up from a seated position without excruciating pain going up my leg. At the last minute, I bailed from it. I'm like, “Ah, it's feeling a little bit better.”

It took 2 years to become pain-free from the time I popped the disc. Then I rebuilt from first principles. During COVID, I started working with a trainer, and for the first year, when we were all remote, we were doing bodyweight and dumbbell stuff only. Gradually over time, I got into lifting heavy and doing barbell work again.

It was just going from working out by myself, as you said, to rebuilding my form and doing everything properly from the ground up. It's like a basketball player rebuilding their free throw. I had to just do everything properly, starting with very little weight.

13. From Men’s Health to Japanese Toilets

Harry Stebbings

Dude, I was sold when I heard that you're in Men's Health. That's the coolest thing that you've said for the last hour. I'm still super impressed. What purchase under $500 has had the biggest impact on your life?

What is that?

Vlad Tenev

It's a bidet. If you're taking a poop, you can just push a button and it cleans you without needing toilet paper. Very environmentally friendly.

Harry Stebbings

No.

Vlad Tenev

You've never heard of this Japanese toilet?

Harry Stebbings

No.

Vlad Tenev

Yeah.

Harry Stebbings

You don't use loo roll?

Vlad Tenev

I do, but for drying only.

Harry Stebbings

Ah, yeah. This must be so disappointing when you go to a place without it and you're like, “Shit, I've got to go back to the old way.”

Vlad Tenev

It is disappointing. Yeah.

Harry Stebbings

I'm sorry. Let me just make sure next time you're here, we'll get one of these for you.

Vlad Tenev

You should get one. Yeah, it's fine. I just try to avoid using the bathroom.

Harry Stebbings

You've opened my world to cash trucks and now—

Vlad Tenev

Japanese toilets.

Harry Stebbings

Japanese toilets, dude. That's amazing.

Vlad Tenev

They even have a portable one, actually. If you don't want to spend the $500, for $30 you can get this little thing that's battery-operated and take it with you.

Harry Stebbings

If you want to go to $10,000, you get the full toilet.

Vlad Tenev

Oh, well, I'm sold. Yeah, that has some nice features.

Harry Stebbings

That is—I'll ask for it for Christmas. What's the biggest advice on marriage?

Vlad Tenev

Well, I've only done it once, so I don't have voluminous advice.

Harry Stebbings

You don't? But you've been through a shit ton. I mean, Christ, Vlad.

Vlad Tenev

Yeah.

Harry Stebbings

And you're still together.

Vlad Tenev

My wife and I would disagree with this. I think she's more of a—like the movie Severance.

Harry Stebbings

Yeah.

Vlad Tenev

I think she would prefer a more Severance-like existence, where I come home, I don't really think about work, I take off my work clothes, and I'm in home mode. There's more strict separation.

I prefer closer to full integration—my work people coming to my house and hanging out with my kids, me doing a meeting while I'm on vacation, and my kids coming to work. So, it can't just be one way. It has to be both ways.

I think there's also something about full, unconditional commitment, where you just know that if you have an issue or a concern, you can work it out.

14. “I Was in the Dumps”: What 2022 Taught Vlad About Resilience

Harry Stebbings

But ultimately, which one was the hardest—oh, shit—that turned into a good thing? For example, when I was 17, I was kicked out of school for being very bulimic. Because of that, I went to this really loose school where they gave me loads of free time, and I started a podcast.

Vlad Tenev

I want to say being public through 2022, seeing our stock go from—I don't know what it was in 2021, irrationally high perhaps, but it was still high after we went public—down to being worth below cash was a very—

Harry Stebbings

That's offensive, isn't it?

Vlad Tenev

It was below cash. People were betting that we would just waste our cash and never be profitable. It was offensive in hindsight, but it was tough. I think that, in hindsight, led to us making a bunch of decisions and investments and responding to it in a very positive way. Now we're reaping the benefits.

15. Where Robinhood Is Headed: The Next Decade of Financial Infrastructure

Harry Stebbings

Okay, final one for you. Where is Robinhood—and you can choose the time frame—in 5 or 10 years' time? Where is Robinhood in 5 or 10 years' time?

Vlad Tenev

The vision behind Robinhood is to make it possible for everyone, whether they be an individual or a business, to buy, sell, or hold any financial asset or conduct any financial transaction. That involves us going from U.S.-primary to fully global, and from retail-only to serving not just retail but businesses and institutions.

Harry Stebbings

Dude, I so appreciate you. I so appreciate all you've done for me. You've always been so good to me. Thank you for joining me, and this has been so much fun.

Vlad Tenev

Always a pleasure. Thanks for having me.

Harry Stebbings

I look forward to buying this bidet now.