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20VC · · 67 分钟

20VC:Uber总裁谈Uber如何为AI编预算:AI如何帮助并伤害Uber|自动驾驶为何关乎Uber生死|如何击败DoorDash成为外卖第一|Andrew MacDonald讲述Travis Kalanick、Dara Khosrowshahi与中国的未曾披露故事

Harry StebbingsAndrew MacDonald

播客
TL;DR
  • MacDonald认为自动驾驶关乎Uber生死,也是Uber迄今最大的一笔单独投资,但他判断终局将偏向平台。 “自动驾驶今天已经处在最差状态,未来只会变好”;他预计,自动驾驶最终会在所有使用场景中胜出,但目前可能更慢、接客点不够精准,在部分天气和地理环境下也无法运行。Uber每周在75个国家完成3亿次行程,而印度和巴西的平均车费约为2.50-4美元,因此“还要几十年”自动驾驶才会取代大多数行程。不过他承认Harry的反驳:如果自动驾驶先拿下旧金山、洛杉矶、华盛顿特区、迈阿密、纽约和波士顿,收入份额可能会更早发生逆转。
  • 面对Waymo与Tesla之争,他的判断是“赢家不止两个”,而且“最终赢的是分发”。 中国已经有4-5家自动驾驶玩家,“顺带一提,未来会变成8-10家”,因此他不认为世界其他地区最终会收敛到一家。以McDonald’s和Starbucks为喻,他认为昂贵固定资产的所有者都有动力与平台合作提升利用率,即便它们拥有自己的1P应用。
  • “4个月烧穿AI预算”的病毒式故事被重新拆解:真正的ROI来源不是逐项归因,而是对人员规模保持纪律。 Uber把30名顶尖AI工程师与业务人员组成小组,将每周定价分配耗时从15小时压到2小时、预测从8小时压到2小时、营销QA从2周压到2天;但省下的工时会被其他工作填满,因此“企业最终提取AI效率的方式……就是在目标设定上把约束收紧”。他对未来5年人员规模的谨慎判断是:“我们可能用更少的人完成今天做的一切”,但新业务可能需要更多人。
  • 他承认自己在Uber One上判断失误,而且“过于短期主义”;如今他称其为Uber长期最有效的消费者杠杆。 他过去管理出行时,会把每一笔增量资金尽可能投入价格或司机供给,因为“网约车归根结底就是价格、可靠性和安全”;但会员业务不断复利的LTV、向Eats交叉销售以及更强的留存让他意识到自己错了,不过Uber距离Amazon Prime或Costco级别的会员项目仍只有“一步之遥”。
  • 月活用户从2亿增至5亿,关键在价格——他笑称这个答案投资者关系团队不会喜欢。 纽约通勤者单程35美元的UberX“仍然是奢侈品”;要把用户月均交易次数从6次提升至25次,就必须提供更便宜的交通方式,包括火车、自行车和滑板车,从而“拆解汽车所有权”——汽车是“一项每天98%的时间都闲置”的资产。
  • 面对智能体带来的交易拆分,Uber会参与前沿实验室的合作,但拒绝在价格层面被聚合。 他反对把实时车辆和价格数据通过API提供给比价应用——“我想做前端”——并认为“托管交易”才是末日场景尚未发生的原因:失物、接客问题以及与司机的互动都需要平台处理;他认为Brian Chesky关于聊天并非所有预订场景的界面的判断“是对的”。
  • Uber中国与外卖业务延续了同样的竞争基因:与DiDi交易前的最后几周,公司每周在价格补贴上烧掉5200万美元,而且没有WeChat就像“被绑住一只手”参战。 如今他亲自负责外卖——该业务负责人已经离职,他同时做着“白天的本职工作和晚上的工作”。待完成的Delivery Hero交易将带来地域规模和本地品牌,但Uber在美国外卖市场面对DoorDash仍不是第一。
摘要 · 为研究而整理的核心内容

1. 14年的经营公式:明确为Uber优化,也要接受犯错

  • Harry开场时将Uber定位为一家市值1600亿美元、FY2025营收520亿美元、年总预订额超过2500亿美元、月活消费者2亿的公司。MacDonald是Uber目前在职时间最长的员工——“5月就满15年”——他总结自己的领导力公式:无论大小决策,都先问“什么对Uber最好”,这样即使最终判断错误,团队也会相信你的优化目标。另一项优势是领域深度:网约车自2009年出现,他从2012年开始负责这一业务,“到这个阶段,我比世界上任何人都更懂它”。
  • 他借Bezos概括自己的认识论:“如果你想大多数时候都是对的,就得经常改变自己的想法。”他主动承认自己“每天都会犯错”。
  • 他承认的那次错误,是Dara提前让Harry追问、还坚持让Harry说明“这是我说的”:他曾经抵触会员业务。MacDonald负责出行时,凭直觉认为每一美元增量资金都应尽可能投入价格或司机供给,因此压缩了Uber One的资本投入额度:“我当时的想法可能确实太短期主义了。”

2. 为什么会员如今是投入1美元、产出最好的杠杆

  • 他采用的单位经济模型很直接:核心指标是每1美元激励带来的IGB(增量总预订额);原始ROI非常残酷,因为“我们只能拿到你这1美元的7.5%”,即便收入回报达到2:1,ROI仍然为负,只有用户参与度和LTV增长才能证明投入合理。
  • 会员业务的优势在于复利:会员群体随着时间推移乘车更多,把出行支出集中到Uber,在Eats上进行交叉消费,“而不是去DoorDash或Deliveroo”,同时流失率更低——“这些下游的长期影响,会共同放大最初那1美元的价值”。相比之下,价格和促销投入“消散得更快”。
  • 与Prime或Costco的差距,首先在于消费者对5%出行返现的理解度偏低;其次是结构性劣势:Uber的可变成本模式意味着“我没有太多可以免费送出的东西”,不像酒店可以赠送多余的客房夜晚。理想状态是“感知价值高、成本低”的功能,但Uber的市场模式恰恰很难提供这类权益。

3. 约2500亿美元总预订额下的创新者困境

  • 任何新业务要想具备重要性,都必须证明“几年内达到数十亿美元GMV的路径”;MacDonald直白承认,这确实会限制试错。“2250亿美元的庞然大物……会吞噬你在组织上尝试其他事情的能力。”
  • Uber的答案是Growth Bets:为新业务配置专门产能。假设出行团队有2000人,其中100-150人专门投入尚未达到产品市场契合的想法,因为把孵化工作当成“本职工作的5%”注定失败。Harry提出另一种模式:Revolut创始人Nik Storonsky——“我采访过的最优秀创始人”——同时推进26个实验,每个投入200万美元,每周进行20分钟检查,再决定是否为下一轮继续提供资金。MacDonald非常认可这种节奏:“新业务应该按周而不是按月或季度运营”;同时必须持续证明自身价值,否则大公司内部的孵化项目“只会靠资源养得越来越臃肿”。
  • Uber的补偿性优势,是2亿月活消费者构成的分发能力——Harry插话称这“是发明之母”,MacDonald完全同意——但在内部,每个产品都要争夺“页面曝光位该怎么分配”。

4. 走向5亿用户,先要解决价格问题

  • 这个不太讨投资者关系团队喜欢的答案是:约束不在于价格战,而在于“广义交通领域绝大多数交易的价格点,都远低于我们的核心产品”。纽约通勤者单程35美元的UberX“仍然是奢侈品”。
  • 目标是把用户月均交易次数从6次提升至25次,依靠更便宜的交通方式——伦敦可以在Uber上购买火车服务,也可以使用自行车和滑板车——因为“一旦拆解汽车所有权,就不只是UberX的问题”。私家车是“任何人拥有的最高效益最低的资产……每天98%的时间都闲置”;他认为也许不是5年内,但在15-20年后,可能没人再拥有汽车或持有驾照,就像Harry每天都在计算Uber与养车的经济账。

5. 自动驾驶关乎生死,但剥离ATG仍然正确

  • 自动驾驶之所以关乎生死,是因为在很多场景下它“比我们的核心产品更好”,而这些场景还会不断扩大;MacDonald认为它最终会在所有场景中胜出。当前的缺点包括速度可能更慢、接客点不一定就在门口,以及无法适应所有天气、地理环境和接客地点。随着时间推移,他预计自动驾驶会更安全,并提供更受偏好的车内体验:隐私、工作和睡眠。“自动驾驶今天已经处在最差状态……它每天都会变好。”这是Uber最大的一笔单独投资,涵盖股权投资、采购承诺、自动驾驶基础设施和数据采集车队。
  • 对于Harry关于Travis当年反复启动、暂停自动驾驶的“早就告诉过你”的说法,MacDonald认可Travis在2012-2014年前瞻性地看到了趋势,当时“叙事比现实领先太多”;但他拒绝用玫瑰色滤镜重写历史。ATG剥离时,疫情冲击下出行业务在3周内“损失了84%的营收”,公司每年烧掉数十亿美元,而且“我们落后了”——究竟是落后整个行业,还是只落后Waymo,仍有争议。公司随后集中精力,把核心业务变成“能产生现金流的机器”,从那时起“几乎任何一项指标都在持续向上”。但如果现在可以打个响指让ATG成为领先的自动驾驶玩家,他会不会这么做?“是的,我认为那会对我们有好处。”

6. 自动驾驶预测:出行次数占比很小、新兴市场要等几十年,但收入将集中在美国城市

  • 他拒绝预测5年后人类司机与Robotaxi的比例,原因有3个:分母是每周3亿次行程,而自动驾驶目前每月只有几百万次行程,即便保持三位数月度增长,也只是“相对微小的一滴”;旧金山和洛杉矶的人类司机业务本身仍以高于美国其他地区的速度增长;Uber覆盖75个国家,巴西平均车费只有“3.50美元、4美元”,印度则是“2.50美元、3美元”——“自动驾驶成本降到与这些市场的人工成本相当,还要几十年”,而这些市场贡献了大多数行程。
  • Harry进一步指出,行程份额可能低估收入份额;MacDonald承认这“当然是反驳点”:如果自动驾驶在旧金山、洛杉矶、华盛顿特区、迈阿密、纽约和波士顿拿下多数份额,“那会占我们预订额的一大块……这才是终极问题”。
  • 对于少数自动驾驶赢家借此压低Uber抽成率的悲观情景,他拿外卖打比方:McDonald’s和Starbucks都有1P渠道,也拥有数十亿美元固定资产,但仍会与平台合作,因为利用率决定经济性。“无论那是门店还是汽车,我认为逻辑都会成立……最终我们拥有分发能力,而它们拥有需要提高利用率的昂贵固定资产。”他的结论是:“最终赢的是分发”;但他也承认,如果最终只有一家玩家抵达终点,“那对我们来说就是个问题”。

7. 中国战事:每周烧5200万美元、重叠薪资与受限的WeChat

  • 这场竞争的终局机制是:资本投入本身就是谈判筹码,因此在与DiDi交易前的最后几周,“我们在中国仅价格补贴一项,每周就烧掉5200万美元”。Travis当年的准则是“我们需要比全世界所有竞争对手加起来筹到更多的钱”,但在免费资金时代,SoftBank和其他投资者也开始为竞争对手注资,这套逻辑随之失效。
  • 他称最离谱的故事是:DiDi与Kuaidi合并、整合人力系统后,发现约200名员工同时出现在双方约2000人的薪资名单上;这种重叠薪资的情况,他“做梦都无法想象会发生在美国”。Harry插话说:“听起来像前沿AI实验室员工。”
  • 他对退出中国的冷静结论是:Uber当时“被绑住一只手”参战;一度无法在WeChat上运营,“就像在美国没有电子邮件或电话号码的情况下竞争”。一家美国科技公司赢下中国出行市场,在地缘政治上从来就不现实。最终拿到“银牌”,已经“比绝大多数西方公司的结果都好”;最难的是那支全情投入Uber China的团队,其中很多人后来被Uber转入全球业务岗位。

8. AI预算标题的真相:如何真正给AI编预算

  • 他说,两个病毒式标题都被扭曲了:CTO Praveen所说的预算项目,指的是一种不可预测、且由公司主动驱动的使用量增长——“你在11月给一个正在垂直增长的工具设预算”;而他自己关于很难把AI直接对应到消费者功能的说法,“根本没有什么洞见”,只是让AI怀疑者和“AI原教旨布道者”分别确认了各自的先验判断。“中间存在一些真实的细节。”
  • 可量化的成果来自一个由Uber30名顶尖AI工程师与业务及G&A人员组成的小组,他们逐项改造流程:覆盖数千个市场的每周定价分配从15小时降至2小时,财务重新预测从8小时降至2小时,营销QA从2周降至2天。针对Harry援引Karp提出的质疑——除了编程和客服,ROI“充其量还不够实质性”——MacDonald的让步与解释是:释放出的工时会被其他、预计同样高价值的工作填满,因此“你确实需要在一定程度上自上而下、基于信念地推动这件事”;效率收益的提取方式,是把人员规模目标卡得更紧,而不是精确追踪“我需要少招2名运营分析师”。
  • 预算上的改进方案是把人员和算力预算放在一起管理:“你的人员预算是X,我们的算力预算是Y,那就把X和Y加在一起,按你认为合适的方式花掉”;同时配合智能模型路由、外部供应商(Harry提到Fireworks)和成本看板。Harry持续追问使用量和成本排行榜:“我是要拿第一还是垫底?……那这就是个糟糕的排行榜,老兄。”MacDonald部分认同:粗糙指标会被刷,但针对特定领域工具的采用率排行榜值得追踪,比如要求每个客服坐席都使用AI助手,而不是要求所有人都使用Cloud Code。

9. 前沿实验室、智能体,以及托管交易为何能守住前端

  • 对于Karp提出的“狐狸进鸡舍”警告——把数据交给最终可能与Uber竞争的实验室——MacDonald表示,Uber与实验室的合作“非常好”,公司也正在从试验转向落地;但物理世界的复杂性让直接竞争困难。“我不认为OpenAI会推出网约车服务,跑遍数万座城市、取得当地牌照并在地面部署团队。”Harry提到Dario热衷于在巴塞罗那做最后一公里配送,MacDonald对此保持警惕。
  • 对于智能体主导的交易拆分,如果用户在ChatGPT或Claude里说“给我叫平时那辆Uber”,他很乐意完成订单;但如果用户只是说“给我找辆车”,平台之间的价格比较和无差别选择才是威胁。他反对向聚合应用开放API:“我想做前端……今天我们凭借2亿消费者赢得第一次展示机会。”任何与实验室的合作,最终都是在谈判哪些数据可以越过边界、交易从哪里开始,以及当体验出错时由谁负责。“不能把顺利完成的体验当成典型。”
  • 对于Chesky那个被广泛调侃的观点——聊天不是预订酒店的正确界面——他为其辩护:“我认为他说得对。有些体验更具视觉性,有些体验更需要托管。”Harry随后提出“市场的Fortnitification”:如果把交易型预订剥离出去,Airbnb就会缩小为体验式旅行;MacDonald给出的回应是:“我认为这是一个合理的视角。”

10. Delivery Hero交易、DoorDash之战,以及一人兼做两份工作

  • Delivery Hero交易的逻辑是:外卖业务规模几乎与出行相当,增长更快,但受国家边界限制更明显;这笔待完成的交易将“一步到位”扩大覆盖范围,并带来在阿根廷、韩国和中东拥有真实用户心智的本地品牌,这些品牌“很难靠其他方式补足”,同时还能推出本地化的出行与外卖组合服务。他指出,Uber拥有一个规模约等于出行业务、且在市场上领先的食品业务,却“几乎得不到任何认可”。交易仍需经过监管和股东程序。
  • 外卖业务负责人离职后,MacDonald开始直接负责该业务——“我的白天本职工作和晚上的工作”,每天晚上还排了一个班。他承认Uber在美国并不是第一名:“从强势位置出发会有顺风助力,而我们现在必须扮演挑战者,这正是我们乐于接受的角色。”但他也提示了过劳风险:“你不可能长时间一直压在红线之上。”
  • 对于前Uber员工所说的“如果Travis还在,我们早就是外卖第一”,他用竞技场作答:站在场边做反事实推演很容易。他也认可DoorDash:“Tony是一位出色的企业家……他们行动快、进攻性强、敢于冒险。”Uber是否曾有机会收购DoorDash?“老实说,我不知道。”至于Postmates,他认为Uber在并购上的评价“比应得的更苛刻”——交易可以提升能力、吸引人才,也能帮助公司发现短板,而这些往往从外部看不到。

11. Travis、Dara与快问快答

  • Travis留给他的组织价值观,是创造性解决问题:走进任何会议,提出“几个尖锐的问题”,用15分钟推动那些已经研究了一周的专家重新思考;同时解释答案背后的原因,这会“创造出多个你的微缩版本”。MacDonald通过公开发布原则,把后半部分落实为组织机制。
  • Dara留给他的那句话是:“管理来自组织架构,领导力来自内心。”它意味着低自我、愿意第一个迈出去,并且出发点是善意。至于如何在两任领导者时代都留下来,而大多数员工都选择了阵营,他的答案是:困难时期离开会像抛下队友,顺风时期则是“我们正在征服世界”;此外,“从你的领导者身上能学多少就学多少,不要指望任何一个人能给你一切”。
  • 快问快答的具体答案包括:他已经成为长寿乐观派,“我确实认为我们最终会解决人类所有疾病”;他同时使用两家实验室,但选择OpenAI,主要因为语音功能——这是他使用最多的AI功能,频率“可能是其他任何功能的50倍”。他得到过的最佳建议,来自Rachel Whetstone在2015或2016年前后转发的毕业典礼演讲核心观点:“永远说Yes”——押注自己,即使失败,也会带来“一个更好的自己”。
Andrew MacDonald

We're doing 300 million trips a week. We were burning $52 million a week in China. We were competing in China with one hand tied behind our back. Autonomy is as bad as it's ever going to be today, right? Every single day, it's going to get better.

In the end, distribution wins. We could do everything we do today with fewer people in 5 years because of the power of AI. No one has been with the company longer than me at this point.

Harry Stebbings

This is 20VC with me, Harry Stebbings, and I'm so excited to welcome one of the greatest operators of the last two decades to the hot seat, Andrew McDonald. He's the president and COO at Uber, where he leads all businesses initiatives for the company across mobility and delivery. He is Uber's longest-tenured active employee. And today, Uber's an absolute monster. They have a market cap of $160 billion, revenues of $52 billion in the full year of 2025, on over a quarter of a trillion in annual gross bookings. They have 200 million consumers that use the app monthly. This was a behind-the-scenes on Uber like we haven't seen before. Mac was one of the greatest operators that I've been fortunate enough to have on the show, and I think that really comes out in this discussion.

Andrew MacDonald

You have now arrived at your destination.

Harry Stebbings

Mac, I am so excited for this, dude. I've wanted to make this happen, and we've been DMing for a long time. It's so good to do it in person.

Andrew MacDonald

So great to be here. And you're right. I remember the first Twitter DM from you, and I was a bit of a fan from afar, as you probably hear often, but great to be here now and so glad to do it in person.

Harry Stebbings

I spoke to Dara before the show and I said, “What's his superpower?” He's been here for over a decade, 12, 13 years.

Andrew MacDonald

14 years. It'll be 15 in May. No one has been with the company longer than me at this point.

Harry Stebbings

My God. I said, “What's his superpower?” And he said, “Oh, very simple. People really like him, but he is an execution machine and he is very good at driving people.” I suck at that. So can you—no, seriously, how do you do that but retain people liking you?

1. Building Trust Through Execution

Andrew MacDonald

I get the question in the context of career advice. People join Uber and say, “You've been very successful at Uber. How do I—how should I be successful here? What did you do to get successful?” It's hard because every formula is different, but there are a couple of things I say.

One is—and I think the most important thing is—if you genuinely are trying to do what you think is the right thing for the company, and that is your filter, and you build trust that that's what you're optimizing for all the time on every decision, big and small, that you are using the lens of what is the best thing for Uber. You're not always going to get the decision right, but if people know that you're filtering on that, then I think that builds followership and trust over time.

Then you can move people, because if you're pushing on something, they know it's because you genuinely think it's the right thing to do. If you pair that with a deep knowledge of the business—and I've grown up in this business, so I know ride-hailing better than anyone in the world at this point—those two things together are pretty powerful.

Harry Stebbings

You do literally know it better than anyone else in the world.

Andrew MacDonald

It's hard. It's only been around since 2009. I've been working on it since 2012, and most folks from that time period are not working on it anymore.

Harry Stebbings

You said when you genuinely believe it's the right thing for the company. What did you genuinely believe was the right thing for the company and it turned out you were wrong?

Andrew MacDonald

I am wrong every single day—big things and small things, right? I think it's a Bezos quote: “If you want to be right most of the time, you have to change your mind a lot,” or something to that effect. Effectively, you're going to be wrong a lot, and the people who are successful over time are willing to change their minds. I think that's true. I'm wrong a lot.

2. The Membership Mistake

This is probably the most common running debate that Dara and I have had over his tenure as CEO. Thematically, it's the tension between short-term levers and long-term levers for the business.

A short-term lever for ride-hailing is price, right? Every dollar that we can put back into lower pricing, I think, is valuable. Even if, long term, there may be other things you want to do—acquire new users, build a membership program, or build new business units—you should be weighing those investments against the fact that I could just put a dollar back into price.

I think I have been too short-termist on certain issues, like membership—Uber One, for example.

Harry Stebbings

Well, I'm smiling because I said to Dara, “What is the single biggest disagreement that you've had with Mack that comes to mind first?” And he's like, “Say it's from me. Say it's from me.” Normally, people anonymize this. He said, “Say it's from me.” He was reticent about membership programs.

Andrew MacDonald

Yeah. Totally. And I've turned out to be wrong.

The reason I've changed is because, first of all, Uber One is, on many metrics, one of the more successful membership programs in the world. We're not at Amazon Prime or Costco levels, but we're getting within spitting distance. From a company-lever perspective, it's highly efficient.

When we look at efficiency, we usually look at, if I put a dollar in, what am I getting back in terms of top line? It's one of the best levers we have. The farther out we can measure it, the more efficient it gets and the better it stacks up against other levers.

So you're like, “Okay, Mack, how did you get that wrong? If that's what the data showed you, then why weren't you all in on membership?”

When I say I wasn't all in on membership, what I mean by that is that I would constrain the capital envelope we had in the mobility business to invest in it. If I had $40 million next quarter to invest, my gut was always, “Put as much of that into pricing as you can, or put as much of that into driver supply to improve the health of the marketplace so that service is more reliable.”

Ridesharing, at the end of the day, is price, reliability, and safety. That's all it is. That's what it was 10 years ago. I think that's what it's going to be 10 years from now, even when there are autonomous vehicles. It's price, reliability, and safety.

Putting money into something like membership, where people get a suite of benefits, part of which is price but the rest is a whole other host of things, means you're explicitly choosing not to put that dollar back into price. That's just the tension. I probably was short-termist in my thinking there.

Harry Stebbings

You said that about dollar leverage—putting in dollars and seeing what you get out. What is the single most efficient dollar-in-to-dollar-out business for you today?

Andrew MacDonald

I think membership is the most efficient long-term consumer lever that we've got.

The reason for that is that, ultimately, we are looking at IGB as a critical input metric for any dollar I have to put in. So—

Harry Stebbings

What is IGB?

Andrew MacDonald

Incremental gross bookings. Think of it as incremental revenue. If I put a dollar of incentive into the market—if I give Harry a dollar and I give a million other consumers a dollar discount—how much incremental revenue do I get back from that?

By the way, the ROI on that is different. If I get $2 of revenue back from Harry by offering you a dollar, you might be like, “Okay, that’s great. That’s a two-to-one ratio.” But actually, we only make 7.5% of your dollar from a profit-margin perspective, so you’re still negative ROI. You make those sorts of investments to grow the platform over time because I’ve increased Harry’s engagement, and then your LTV goes up over time.

We’re typically looking at a very baseline IGB-type, or incremental-revenue-type, metric for any dollar we’re putting into the marketplace. Membership just gets better over time. The reason it gets better over time is, if Harry becomes a member, not only do you ride more next month, but that cohort of members we acquired in that month tends to ride more over time.

Part of that is because they’re consolidating more of their mobility business onto Uber. Part of it is because you get some Uber Eats benefits with your membership program, too, so now you start using Uber Eats instead of DoorDash or Deliveroo. The LTV of Harry just goes up over time with membership. You’re less likely to churn, and you’re more resilient from a market-share perspective.

There are all these downstream, long-term impacts that multiply the value of that first dollar I put into membership. With shorter-term levers, like price or promotion, there’s some tail. If I give you a dollar to take a trip next week, there’s some value in the following weeks, but it tends to dissipate faster. That’s often the debate.

Harry Stebbings

You said it’s not quite Amazon or Costco, in terms of membership dominance.

Andrew MacDonald

Yeah.

Harry Stebbings

I think that’s fair. They’ve had a little bit more of a head start than you. When you look at that chasm between you, what do you not have that you would need to have to reach their dominance?

Andrew MacDonald

From my perspective, we need to put more consumer value into the membership program. Today, I think especially if you’re a mobility rider, typically on mobility you’re getting 5% cash back, which is our standard offer. The consumer comprehension of that is still relatively low. For a membership program as big as we are, I think there are still a lot of people who have Uber One and don’t fully realize the benefits they’re getting on mobility.

The other thing we need to do is look for features that are high perceived value and low cost. That’s the sweet spot of any membership or rewards program, for example. With our business, that’s tough, because I don’t have a lot of free things to give away on the platform. If I want to give you a ride because you’re a loyal member, either through a membership program or a rewards program, I still have to pay the driver to provide that ride.

It’s not like a hotel, where you might have excess inventory and your marginal cost of giving away a room night is pretty low. The beauty of our model is that we’re primarily a variable-cost model. That means when demand drops, our costs scale down with it. But it also means that we don’t have a fixed capacity to give away, and so it makes the challenges of building a membership or rewards program a little tougher for us.

3. Incubating New Growth Bets

Harry Stebbings

What line of revenue do you not have today that will be very significant in 5 years’ time?

Andrew MacDonald

I mean, it’s hard, because “significant” for us is really fucking big at this point.

Harry Stebbings

Right.

Andrew MacDonald

We’re approaching a quarter trillion dollars in GB. If you think about that top-line metric—what our GMV or GB number is—we’re not far off from being a $250 billion company. So for anything to pass the significance test, it has to be a multibillion-dollar business in terms of transaction volume.

I’m thinking of a new product I want to stand up, and it’s a mobility service that we’re going to offer through the Uber app. For that to even be interesting, I have to see a path within a few years to multiple billions of dollars of GMV. It actually constrains your thinking a little bit.

Harry Stebbings

Yeah. Does that—do you worry that that prevents you from trying new things?

Andrew MacDonald

Yeah, totally.

Harry Stebbings

Do you like a Google Labs? Go on, try something—try Gmail, Paul Buchheit. Do you know what I mean?

Andrew MacDonald

Yeah. We do. We try to set up structures to solve this problem. It’s a classic innovator’s dilemma problem: the thing you’ve already built is so big that it swallows up your organizational capacity to do anything else.

Even if you’re able to stand up other businesses, it’s impossible for those businesses to get the resourcing, attention, distribution, marketing dollars, and engineering capacity. Whatever it is, it just gets swallowed up by the whole. Part of it is even management focus. It’s very hard to focus on the new thing when you’ve got this $225 billion blob that you have to manage over here.

So how do you solve that? We run a program called Growth Bets, which is intended very much to incubate new businesses within Uber.

Harry Stebbings

How does that work?

Andrew MacDonald

Basically, what we try to do is, first, create dedicated resources. If I’ve got, say, 2,000 people who work on our mobility business, I want to try to have 100 to 150 of them working on the new stuff—the small stuff, the stuff where we don’t have product-market fit or unit economics figured out, but that could be a big future business.

It requires dedicated capacity and thinking. If you try to do it as 5% of your job—if you run the marketplace for UberX in the US but you’re also trying to incubate this other thing with 2% of your time—it’s really hard.

Harry Stebbings

Do you know who the best in the world is at this? Nik Storonsky from Revolut.

Andrew MacDonald

Oh, interesting.

Harry Stebbings

I’ve interviewed 1,000 founders.

Andrew MacDonald

Yeah.

Harry Stebbings

He’s the single best founder I’ve ever interviewed.

Andrew MacDonald

Yeah.

Harry Stebbings

It’s because he runs 26 product experiments at once. He gives them $2 million, tells them to run for a year, and every single week he checks in for 20 minutes with each of the leaders. Then he determines whether to fund their next round or not.

Andrew MacDonald

Yeah, I love that. We have a version of that. It’s not the—I love the cadence of that, by the way. Operating on weeks, not months or quarters, is how a new business should run.

I also think having to sing for your supper and come back and ask for money is important. Again, the other challenge of standing up a new business within a big company with a big P&L and a big balance sheet is that people just get fat on the resources. You don’t build it the way you would build it if you were a startup, because you have more resources.

You end up moving slower, consuming more cash, and getting more heads than you otherwise would if you were starting from zero to one. As a result, it’s not that you necessarily build something better; you’re just slower, and you’re constantly chasing the people who are doing it from first principles. I think that’s hard.

You have advantages. We have distribution. Distribution is—

Harry Stebbings

Which is the mother of invention.

Andrew MacDonald

100%. If you can actually build something interesting and then plug it into 200 million consumers who use our app monthly, you’re going to be able to scale way faster than anyone who’s doing it without that distribution advantage.

Even figuring out how to do distribution right—the 200 million number is attractive, but even within that 200 million, there’s tons of internal discussion and debate around how we spend our pixels. Every new product wants CRM support. Every new product wants to be featured on the masthead of Uber Eats or to be in the product selector for rides.

How you make those decisions as an organization is tough. But you still have this built-in distribution that is super interesting, and so it’s an advantage. You’ve got to figure out the other stuff, which is how you stand up new products in a company.

Harry Stebbings

Other than time, what is the one inhibitor to getting to 500 million users? You mentioned 200 million.

Andrew MacDonald

I would say our IR team is not going to love this answer, because I would say price. The reason our IR team won’t love that answer is that when you start talking about price in the context of public markets, people are like, “Oh, you’re going to get into a price war, margins are going to come down, and it’s a less attractive business.”

But that’s not really what I mean. What I mean by price is that when you think about the businesses we operate—primarily mobility and delivery—the vast majority of transactions in delivery, or the vast majority of transactions in transportation broadly, happen at a price point that is much lower than our core products.

Taking an UberX to and from work every day in New York City for $35 a direction is still a luxury product. The vast majority of transportation in New York City is not happening at that price point.

And so if we want to get to 500 million users, and we want to go from people using us on average 6 times a month to using us on average 25 times a month, the average cost of that transaction has to come down. There are all sorts of ways of doing that. You have more modes that are cheaper. You can get trains on Uber here in London. You have alternative modes like bikes and scooters, et cetera.

Because once you deconstruct car ownership, it's not just about UberX; it's about all the other things you do. But you have to get the price down.

Harry Stebbings

À la poubelle. I fucking hate these bikes that litter the pavements. Oh, my God, they're so annoying.

Andrew MacDonald

You do.

Harry Stebbings

Oh, my gosh. I'm an old man.

Andrew MacDonald

But you know Londoners love them generally. London is such a significant market for micromobility.

Harry Stebbings

I know. It's why I don't get out much.

Andrew MacDonald

Would you rather have more cars on the road?

Harry Stebbings

Would I?

Andrew MacDonald

Yeah.

Harry Stebbings

To be fair, I live around the corner.

Andrew MacDonald

Yeah.

Harry Stebbings

To be fair, I use Uber as an argument every single day because I don't have a driver's license.

Andrew MacDonald

Okay.

Harry Stebbings

Because I have Uber.

Andrew MacDonald

I love that.

Harry Stebbings

My girlfriend has a car that's, what, 20 grand, and then insurance is three or four. And I'm like, “Do you know how many Ubers I'd have to take to get to 24 grand?”

Andrew MacDonald

Totally. I mean, the individually owned car is the most inefficient asset that anyone owns, and certainly at any price point. It sits idle 98% of the day. It's depreciating, and the ongoing operating costs are actually high. Even if you're not driving it, you're paying for that insurance bill.

Which is why I do think, in some future world—maybe not 5 years, but 15 or 20 years—everyone's going to be like Harry. Nobody's going to own a car. Nobody's going to have their driver's license because you'll be able to get around.

I think bikes and scooters will be part of that. Autonomous vehicles will be part of that. I think public transportation will be a big part of that. But I don't think you need to own a car.

4. The Autonomy Imperative

Harry Stebbings

And one way to bring down price is to remove cost, and one way to remove cost is to think about robotaxis and autonomy. You've said before it was existential. Why is it existential, and how do you think about that and how it changes the business forever?

Andrew MacDonald

I mean, it's existential because, at the end of the day, it's a better product than our core product in many use cases, and I think those use cases grow over time. Eventually, it's better in all use cases.

You can quibble along the edges on current autonomous vehicle experiences. In most cases, it is going to be slower than a human driver. The pickup point may not be right in front of your door, as it would be with a human driver. It's not going to work in all weather conditions, all geographies, or all pickup points. You can quibble on that today, but I think increasingly over time, autonomy is not only going to be safe; it's going to be safer.

I think it's going to be a better experience because people like the in-car experience—the privacy, and being able to work or sleep or talk with your partner, or whatever it is you want to do. That is better, and people prefer that for the most part.

So when you have a better product that's only going to get better over time—and autonomy is as bad as it's ever going to be today, right? Every single day, it's going to get better—then that's going to be the business, and that's going to be how people get around.

If Uber doesn't have autonomy on our platform—and we will; we are investing actively and aggressively to bring it to market—but if we didn't, then it certainly would be existential for our core business.

Harry Stebbings

Is it the largest investment that you make?

Andrew MacDonald

It is. I think it depends a little bit on how you define it. If you look at our autonomy investments, we are making a mix of equity investments in companies, purchase commitments, building out autonomous infrastructure, and building out data-collection fleets. There are a lot of different ways we're spreading the dollars, and we're pretty confident in the long-term ROI on those dollars.

So yeah, it's the largest single standalone investment we make. Now, don't get me wrong: with a P&L our size, we're moving billions of dollars around every month. But yes, it's the largest single area of investment.

Harry Stebbings

I'm a venture investor also.

Andrew MacDonald

Yeah.

Harry Stebbings

Which means I love to pontificate, and I also love to say, “I told you so.” You and Travis kind of went down this road already. Do you look at that with annoyance—that you stop-started—and would you be materially ahead had you just been able to continue as planned?

Andrew MacDonald

First off, I'll say that when we started our autonomous efforts, this was a secret project within Uber. I was not involved in starting that. I don't want to take any credit for having that foresight, because I think it was foresight.

Harry Stebbings

This was 2016?

Andrew MacDonald

No, well before 2016. I think Travis had—I don't want to get it wrong—but years earlier than that, he knew that this would be the future. Like many visionary founder types, he could see ahead of where the rest of us could see and started taking the company in that direction.

This would have been, I don't know, 2012, 2013, 2014, when we would have quietly started working on this, and I wasn't involved in it at all. At that time, the autonomy narrative was ahead of the reality by a lot.

Harry Stebbings

Yeah.

Andrew MacDonald

Right? I mean, you can go back and read various prognostications—not just from Elon, but from many people in the industry—saying, “Next year, next year, next year,” and it was never next year.

But look, I think it would be rose-colored glasses to say, “Oh, see, if we just stayed in the game, we'd have the leading autonomous vehicle company, and this existential threat for us wouldn't exist, or we'd completely control our own destiny.”

When we ultimately divested ATG, which was our internal autonomy group, we were in the depths of COVID. Our mobility business had lost 84% of our top line in 3 weeks. The company was burning billions annually. We didn't have a core business producing cash. The billions were not coming from investments or other things. Our core was burning money.

We did not believe we were leading in autonomy at the time. We were trailing. You can debate about whether we were trailing the field or whether we were just trailing Waymo, but we were not in pole position.

Uber had a lot to prove: that we could lead, win, and make money in our core business. And so we divested ATG. We turned the core businesses into cash-flowing machines. We took the company public. We've grown the value and grown the business. Almost any metric you pick from that point in time is up and to the right.

On all those dimensions, I think the focused strategy played out. But yes, of course, today, if you could snap your fingers and say ATG would turn into one of the leading autonomous players globally and we completely controlled our destiny, I think that would be a good thing for us.

Harry Stebbings

Can I ask you, when you fast-forward 5 years, what percentage of rides will be human-driven versus robotaxi-driven?

Andrew MacDonald

It's so hard to predict, for a few reasons. One is that our denominator is huge here, right? We're doing around 300 million trips a week on our core platforms. That is just massive scale. We do a few million trips in AVs on that platform today a month, but it's such a small part of the business that it's going to grow triple-digit percentages month on month, and month after month, and it will still be a relatively tiny drop in the overall bucket.

The second thing that makes it hard to predict is that our human-driven business is going to keep growing. Even in the largest AV markets where today we don't have AVs, like San Francisco and Los Angeles, our human-driven business is growing faster than the rest of the US. So it's hard for me to know what the target is. It's a moving target.

The third piece is that Uber is so global. In mobility, we operate across 75 countries. Two of our three largest countries by volume are India and Brazil. The average fare in Brazil is around $3.50 or $4 USD. In India, it's $2.50, $3, or something like that.

It's going to be decades until the cost of autonomy compresses to the point where it competes with the cost of human labor. Those markets make up the majority of our trips.

And so if you want to say, “When will the majority of trips at Uber be autonomous?” I can't tell you, because I can tell you it's probably not going to be until autonomy gets to Brazil and India, and I can tell you that's going to be a long time.

Harry Stebbings

So what's really interesting there is that it could still be a very low volume of trips, but in terms of dollar amount, it could actually be significantly higher.

Andrew MacDonald

Dollar amount, yeah, because if it's in the US and if it's in the largest cities in the US, then that's where the rubber meets the road.

Harry Stebbings

Exactly.

Andrew MacDonald

That's the counter to what I'm saying. I'm saying, “Oh, it's going to be more complex, and we have all this other...” But yes, of course, if autonomy starts to make up the majority of markets in San Francisco, Los Angeles, Washington, DC, Miami, New York, and Boston, that's a big chunk of our bookings.

That's a big chunk of our dollars, and so that's the ultimate question.

Harry Stebbings

Who do you think is a bigger threat, Waymo or Tesla?

Andrew MacDonald

I don't know how many spicy takes I want to have here, but I think there's going to be more than 2 winners. Do I think Waymo and Tesla will ultimately be winners? Yes, I do. I don't know who's going to bet against either of those, but I think there will be more winners.

I also think even in a world of strong winners, a very natural question—or often feedback we get from investors or smart types who follow our business—is, "So, yeah, I believe that there will be a few players that get to autonomy, and I think they're ultimately going to work with you guys, but they're going to have such strong leverage in the market that your share of every dollar is going to get squeezed. And so I just don't know, even in a world where you have access to autonomy, how are your margins going to look? Because today you guys benefit from fragmentation."

And that's true. I think it's a true statement, but there are a couple of counterpoints to that. One is, if you look at delivery as a comparable vertical here, McDonald's and Starbucks are also strong leaders in their individual verticals. They've spent billions building out fixed assets in terms of stores and all the infrastructure that goes into their supply chain. They have 1P channels. You can walk in the front door of a McDonald's, or you can order through the McDonald's app.

But they also ultimately work with the marketplaces and were able to come to a good economic agreement that works for both sides. At the end of the day, they have expensive fixed assets, and you want to drive as high utilization as possible. Whether that's a store or a car, I think that's going to be true.

And so I think whether Waymo or Tesla ends up being the bigger threat, I don't know. I think ultimately it's in both of their interests to put their vehicles on our network, even if they have their own robotaxi apps or their own 1P apps. Even if they work with our competitors on the rideshare side or on the delivery side, I think everyone will work with us because ultimately we have distribution, and ultimately they have expensive fixed assets that need utilization.

Harry Stebbings

What's interesting there is you say, then, that distribution is more important than superior technology.

Andrew MacDonald

I think in the end, distribution wins. And look, of course, if only one player gets to the finish line on the technology side, then that is a problem for us. But that is not the future that I think will exist. And even if you look at what's happened in China, there's not one AV company that is emerging as a winner there. There are already 4 or 5.

So I don't know why China would have 4 or 5—which, by the way, will over time become 8 or 10—and the rest of the world would converge around one player. I just don't see it emerging that way.

Harry Stebbings

You were at Uber when you did Uber China, no?

Andrew MacDonald

I was. We exited our China business in 2016.

Harry Stebbings

You've got kids, right?

Andrew MacDonald

I do.

Harry Stebbings

Yeah.

Andrew MacDonald

I have 3 daughters.

Harry Stebbings

Okay.

Andrew MacDonald

Yeah.

Harry Stebbings

See, with kids, you tell them story time.

Andrew MacDonald

Yes.

Harry Stebbings

Yeah.

Andrew MacDonald

Yeah.

Harry Stebbings

Right. I pretend like it's story time. What's the wildest story from Uber China?

5. The Uber China Exit

Andrew MacDonald

I was only over China for a few months before we ultimately did the deal with DiDi. Even just those few months felt like I lived years, right? Just seeing the deal process play out, all the regular emotional highs and lows that come with the deal process, but also the specific China-specific, Travis-specific elements—it was just crazy. And ultimately, we got a successful outcome that I think folks would say most Western companies did not have. Even though we didn't win, even though we took the silver medal in China, I think we got a better outcome than the vast majority of Western companies and the vast majority of Western technology companies that try to do business in China.

Harry Stebbings

Do you have a crazy story?

Andrew MacDonald

The crazy thing in China was that you'd be negotiating. To be clear, others were running the negotiation; we were running the business. But the mandate behind the scenes in the negotiation was, "We had to push on investment because it gave you leverage at the table." If one side saw the other was gaining share as you were negotiating the deal, it gave you relative strength.

This was happening day by day, and both sides were so well capitalized. Travis used to have a saying, which was, "We need to raise more money than all our competitors in the world combined," because the basis for competition in rideshare—product-market fit—was clear, so it was just a land grab at that point, and money helped you solve the land grab.

On the other hand, so did DiDi. And the notion that we were going to be able to raise more than everyone in the world combined was just never going to happen past a certain point, because you had players like SoftBank investing in the market as well. And you remember those days.

Harry Stebbings

Yeah.

Andrew MacDonald

That was the free-money era, and Uber was the best in the world at capitalizing on the free-money era, but there were many others that were good at it as well and ran the same playbook as us.

So all that is to say, I remember the last few weeks in the negotiation. We were burning $52 million a week in China just on price subsidies because there was this heated behind-the-scenes battle happening to get to the best economics and the ultimate surrender or truce. So that was crazy.

Another story I heard, which I thought was nuts—and this was not an Uber story—was that before Uber and DiDi did our deal, we were the 2 largest players. But before that, there was a third player. I think it was called Kuaidi, and DiDi and Kuaidi merged. They did a deal, combining their HR systems, and realized that, of the 2,000 employees here and the 2,000 employees there, about 200 employees were on both payrolls.

So you had this dynamic where you started to realize, "Oh, okay, this is real, deep, competitive, gnarly. You have employees who are wearing both hats." That was crazy to me to hear because that notion, just in competing in the US, is not something that I could see happening in a million years.

Harry Stebbings

Feels like a frontier AI lab employee.

Andrew MacDonald

Wild. And so there was all sorts of stuff like that. Remember, we were competing in China with one hand tied behind our back. Because of the nature of the investor bases in each company, at one point we were not able to operate on the WeChat platform.

Trying to compete in China and not having access to WeChat is like trying to compete in the US without email or a phone number. It's very difficult to run your business. But we did have our own local partners that were helpful.

Harry Stebbings

Were you pleased to get out?

Andrew MacDonald

Look, you're never pleased to take the silver medal. I don't think it was plausible that we were ultimately going to be the market winner. Even for geopolitical reasons alone, the notion that a US tech company would ultimately be the largest mobility service in China—I just don't think it's something that was ever plausible.

And so it was always going to be about some exit to a local player, and I think, all things considered, we got a pretty good exit.

Harry Stebbings

I don't think Xi Jinping is going to give you an employee-of-the-month award, is he? No.

Andrew MacDonald

No, it's hard, right?

Harry Stebbings

Very harsh.

Andrew MacDonald

It's hard. And I think the hardest part of exiting was not the market opportunity—that was obvious—or the growth, because that was exciting in our business but also heavily subsidized. It was the Uber China team.

These were people who bet on Uber, who joined Uber, I'm sure, when many of their friends and families were like, "What are you doing? Don't join those guys." They were heart-and-soul Uber employees.

And I think one of the awesome things we did at the time was try to give as many of those folks who wanted it roles in the global machine. Many of those folks are still at Uber today. But that was hard.

Travis is actually a pretty loyal guy to people who are all in on the company, and our Uber China team was all in on the company, so that was a hard moment for us.

Harry Stebbings

Pretty wild freaking time.

Andrew MacDonald

Wild.

Harry Stebbings

Wild.

Andrew MacDonald

Wild.

Harry Stebbings

It makes today with AI look less wild.

Andrew MacDonald

It's all relative, right? When you're in it, some of these things are just your reality, so you don't quite realize. But then you have the benefit of 10 years of hindsight, and you're like, "That was crazy."

6. The Elusive AI Payoff

Harry Stebbings

Speaking of wild and crazy, and China letting US companies do well, China competing, you blew through a year's budget for AI in 4 months. Sorry. I'm just laughing because you go to this meeting and you're like, "So, how's the budget going?"

Andrew MacDonald

Well, first of all, it's not like that. It was a big spreadsheet reveal, and you're like, "Oh, it's gone." I think budgeting for new stuff is tough, right?

Harry Stebbings

It's like me and my mother in Chanel.

I'm like, “Oh, the woman's gone.”

Andrew MacDonald

I'll stay away from that.

Harry Stebbings

Yeah, yeah, terrifying. Is that evidence of incredibly effective tools, or is that evidence of a desperate need for guardrails?

Andrew MacDonald

I firmly believe multiple things can be true at once, so let's come to that. Let me give a little bit of backstory on this, because Uber had 2 big AI headlines in the first half of this year, both of which caught at least the people involved by surprise.

One was Praveen speaking at an event and generating this headline by saying we'd gone through our AI budget in the first few months of the year. Praveen's our CTO. Then I did another podcast and said it was hard to draw a direct line from our AI spend through to useful consumer features. Both of those comments caught fire in a way that I think neither of us expected.

Praveen wasn't making a comment about runaway spend, like we're going to bankrupt ourselves. He was just saying, “Hey, effectively, it's hard to predict usage. Usage has been more than I thought. We've been trying to drive usage, and here we are blowing through a budget.” But you're setting a budget number in November for a tool that's growing vertically in terms of usage. Of course, it's hard to pinpoint where you're going to be.

My comment, honestly, first of all, it wasn't insightful at all. It was held up as this insight, and it showed me the power of people reinforcing their preconceived notions—taking a statement that's fairly innocuous on its surface and using it to prove their point on one side or the other.

On the one side, AI skeptics were saying, “See? The Uber COO is saying there's no return on AI,” which is obviously not what I was saying. On the other side, if you were a fundamentalist AI evangelist, you were saying, “This guy has no idea what he's talking about. They're obviously doing it wrong because AI is God, and I don't touch my computer without engaging AI,” right? Obviously, there's nuance in the middle that's true.

The point around ROI, for me, is a couple of things. At the end of the day, we do want to get efficiency, or we want to get new and cool stuff built, and we are seeing examples of that every single day. We've stood up a pod of 30 of our best AI engineers who are partnered with businesspeople or folks in the G&A functions to go process by process and start from the ground up with AI: How do you improve that process?

If you can take a capital allocation process—every week we're allocating pricing dollars across thousands of markets globally—and take that from being a 15-hour process to a 2-hour process, which is what we've done, that is tremendous, tangible ROI. Now you get 2 days of someone's time back.

If you're able to take a forecasting process, where our finance team is constantly reforecasting every inch of our business, and turn that from 8 hours of work into 2 hours of work, you're able to do that not only with more precision, because you can add an additional layer of nuance into those forecasts, but you're also able to have your folks do other stuff. There's clear ROI there.

If you're able to take marketing QA from 2 weeks to 2 days, there are so many examples of that that we see. The way we've done that, again, is by pairing the business folks with the AI engineers.

Harry Stebbings

But are you actually seeing that today? Alex Karp came on CNBC or CNN and said, “No, the ROI question is still there.” To validate what you said, to be clear, but outside of coding and customer support, with the greatest respect, I think anyone who runs a budget in a large enterprise today would say, “Yes, it's still not material at best.”

Andrew MacDonald

I think it's just hard to know. These things are hard to quantify, and so you do have to be a bit top-down and belief-based about it. I think the 3 examples I just gave—there are dozens more of those.

The natural question is, “Okay, great. How many of those people can I take out of my organization so that I get the cost back and that flows through to the bottom line, or I can put it into other things?” But formulaically doing that is really hard, because guess what? The 8 hours of value that was created, or the 8 hours of excess time, gets filled with some other activity, which is also presumably high value and maybe wouldn't have got done before, or wouldn't have been done to a similar level of precision.

So it's just very hard. I think the way companies ultimately have to extract AI efficiency, at least from a pure OpEx perspective, is in your target setting: hold the constraints tighter.

If we really believe that AI is making our employees 10%, 20%, or 30% more efficient, then next year we should just not increase head count. Or we should increase it by 2% instead of 10%, or decrease it by 5%, and say, “You all should be getting more done with less, and here are all these sub-examples of people doing that.”

But drawing the direct line between “I transformed this process” and “therefore, I need 2 fewer operations analysts” is really tough to do. So I do think there's ROI there, but being able to precisely quantify it is challenging.

Harry Stebbings

How do you think about effective budgeting, then, having been through what you've been through with this—blowing through it in 4 months—with the difficulty of budgeting, and us both acknowledging that?

Andrew MacDonald

I think what you have to do is create combined pools of budgets and then let the people that you trust allocate where they see a high ROI. If you're talking about our CTO, I think it would be totally reasonable for Dara to say, “Your head count budget is X. Our compute budget is Y. Just add X and Y together and then spend it as you see fit.”

If you want to spend relatively more money on compute, on inference, or whatever, because you believe that's the highest ROI, do that, but it means you have less for heads. If you actually think it's more efficient to add more engineers because there's a compounding value to the new and novel products they will build, or it's not just about throughput, then do that. But if you combine the pools, I think that's an interesting approach.

The other thing I'd say is, remember, even at the beginning of this year, the idea that you would be doing things like smart routing internally in terms of which models you're using for which tasks—the idea that you would not only publish an AI usage leaderboard but also an associated cost leaderboard, just so people were aware; the idea that you might choose different models for different tasks from the outset, or give different levels of employees different models for different tasks from the outset—all these things were not really happening.

Harry Stebbings

Do you work with providers like Fireworks to enable efficient routing?

Andrew MacDonald

Yes. We work with external providers.

Harry Stebbings

Yeah.

Andrew MacDonald

We also do some of this internally. We've done things like build dashboarding so folks are aware. I mean, we have an internal—

Harry Stebbings

Is that helpful, like usage and cost? I might be brilliant, but I'm number 1 on the cost, and I feel a bit guilty because I'm using an intense amount of compute. Is that good or is it bad?

Andrew MacDonald

At some point, I think it's wasteful. You do not need the latest and greatest model from Anthropic or OpenAI to ask, “Tell me who the president was in 1945,” and then run that again for the next 5 presidents and run it again for the next 5. You know what I mean?

Harry Stebbings

But do the leaderboards help? I don't understand the point of them. Why would I create them?

Andrew MacDonald

I definitely think visibility helps for both the usage and the cost side of the equation. Imagine a counter in the top right of whatever tool I'm using that is just showing me the equivalent cost of what I'm doing. As that scales, it will make you more cognizant as a user. If you're at the grocery store and you—

Harry Stebbings

But do I want to be number 1, or do I want to be at the bottom?

Andrew MacDonald

I think either extreme is probably wrong at this point, because it's a question of how much value you're creating.

Harry Stebbings

Yeah.

Andrew MacDonald

And that's where human judgment still matters.

Harry Stebbings

Well, then it's a bad leaderboard, man.

Andrew MacDonald

I do agree that sometimes tools can be so blunt as to become useless, because folks are optimizing for the metric versus the outcomes.

I do think, though, there is value in everyone in our organization using the latest and greatest tools in their specific domain. I don't need every person in the company using Cloud Code. Not every customer support rep needs to be doing that. But for the AI assistant agent that's helping them be a better customer support agent, I want every single agent using that tool. An adoption leaderboard for that is helpful, right? And if you're not, I want to ask the question as to why.

Harry Stebbings

When you think about the size of companies in terms of people, will you have more or fewer people in 5 years?

Andrew MacDonald

It's interesting, because I am tempted to say I think we'll have fewer, and I think one of the reasons I'm tempted to say that is when you look at the largest teams from a number-of-people perspective, you do have disproportionate head count in more producing-type functions, whether it's customer support, sales, content production, or analytics, where you're producing reports and dashboards and these sorts of things.

And I think those sorts of functions lend themselves well to first augmentation by AI and eventually, I think, at least partial replacement by AI. So I'm tempted to say less. The reason I won't emphatically state that is because I think that's sort of been proven wrong the last few years, as AI has rolled out and employment in companies continues to grow.

Harry Stebbings

Does it? I don't think it really does. If you look at your Shopifys and the generation you're in, actually it hasn't. Headcount stayed flat, and the companies have just become much more efficient.

Andrew MacDonald

Yeah. No, I think you could probably find examples to prove any point that you want to believe, right? I mean, I'm not an AI doomerist from an economy perspective. I think there are going to be productivity benefits, but I also think there are going to be whole new industries and fields stood up that we can't predict today, just like every other industrial revolution that's happened. But I can't tell you exactly what that's going to be.

So within companies, I think if you took everything Uber does today and held it static and said, "In 5 years, you're going to need more or less people," I'd say, "Well, we could do everything we do today with fewer people in 5 years because of the power of AI, but we're going to be doing a whole bunch of new, interesting stuff, and so maybe we need more employees to do that stuff."

Harry Stebbings

You said something about the AI ROI question, and that was one thing that Alex Karp mentioned. The other thing that he mentioned in this very pertinent interview was that the biggest companies would be nervous to work with frontier labs. Do you agree with that as someone who runs the P&L for one of the biggest businesses in the world?

Andrew MacDonald

I mean, we work with the frontier labs. I think I watched some of the same interview.

Harry Stebbings

He's brilliant to watch.

Andrew MacDonald

Yeah. I mean, amazing and insightful. One of the risks that I saw him highlight was this notion that you feed all of your data to the frontier labs, and then they effectively stand up a competing product. So you're sort of—

Harry Stebbings

No, this is getting cannibalized.

Andrew MacDonald

Yeah, you know, the fox in the henhouse. You're sort of opening the gate. For us, our experience of working with the frontier labs has been great, and I think we have experimented on multiple fronts. We are moving from experimentation to implementation and scale in a bunch of areas where we're seeing ROI. So I haven't seen that yet, but I certainly get that argument, and I think there are companies that have fallen victim to that. He gave a bunch of examples.

Harry Stebbings

I totally get it. I think you put Uber in the less penetrable category for frontier labs. I would really argue—

Andrew MacDonald

Look, I mean, we have this physical-world component to our business that makes it challenging to do that. I don't know that I see OpenAI launching a ridesharing service any time soon, going around to tens of thousands of cities around the world, getting locally licensed, and then putting boots on the ground to run a physical-world service. I think many of the places we play just don't lend themselves well to that extensibility of their model.

Harry Stebbings

See, I disagree. I've always known that Dario, in particular, was very passionate about last-mile delivery in Barcelona for convenience food.

Andrew MacDonald

Yes.

Harry Stebbings

One of his big things.

Andrew MacDonald

Well, then I'll have to be on the watch out for that. Totally.

Harry Stebbings

AGI and refreshments in Barcelona.

Andrew MacDonald

No, look, the physical-world aspect of our business is hard, but it also—

Harry Stebbings

Oh.

7. The Agentic Uber Interface

Andrew MacDonald

It also means that I think some of the worst prognostications haven't come true, right? I mean, even at the transaction level, the big conversations we were having in our leadership team 18 months ago were, "What's going to happen to the consumer front end?" The disaggregation risk on both delivery and mobility is that people want to start their Uber ride with a plain-language query.

Harry Stebbings

Where do you land on that line? I was speaking about this with really smart people, and they talk about agents and how agents will route you to a provider, and you have no customer loyalty. How do you think about the disaggregation of the UI and agent-led decision-making?

Andrew MacDonald

So this is where I think there are some interesting questions about what information you provide to the various consumer front ends, either from the frontier labs or others. Because at some point, maybe you're giving away that front end of the consumer experience in a way that is nonstrategic.

So I don't want to be aggregated on price. We've not participated historically in the aggregation apps where somebody will come to us and pitch and say, "Hey, give us APIs that give us real-time information on every car, every Uber car in the network, what the price of that ride is, whatever other characteristics you can feed us, because we're going to build an app, and then we're also going to put Lyft in there, and we're going to put other providers in there, and then that'll be incremental business for you."

I've been against that. I want to be the front end. I want people to start at the Uber app for the Uber experience. I think today we win that first look with 200 million consumers and growing every month, so there's a real question there.

We've been worried and discussing, "Hey, is somebody just going to put into ChatGPT or Claude, 'Get me my usual Uber'?" I could imagine a world where the query starts there. The challenge is that we have a very managed transaction, right?

Harry Stebbings

Does that damage your business, though? "Get me an Uber" is still your transaction.

Andrew MacDonald

It doesn't damage the business, and I would of course fulfill that query, right? There's a question as to whether comparing the prices of Uber, Lyft, and Waymo and getting me the cheapest one damages my business. Well, no, if we're winning on the cheapest price every time.

But if today 80 percent of people just start with Uber, do I want them to migrate over to a service where they go to a comparison app, whether that's a—

Harry Stebbings

Or they just say, "Get me a car," and then—

Andrew MacDonald

Get me a car, and then they're indifferent.

Harry Stebbings

There's a time, a way, and a price, and then just—

Andrew MacDonald

Yeah. I think the challenge, though, is that it's a managed transaction, both on the delivery side and on the transportation side. All the little things that happen between saying, "Get me an Uber," and you being done with that ride—the interaction between the driver and the rider, the visual experience of the pickup, the fact that I left something in the car, your payment credentials—all these pieces that you sort of take for granted need to be figured out, right?

This is not an e-commerce transaction where you set it and forget it. You don't think about it until the package is on your doorstep. It is a managed transaction, and so that worst fear hasn't played out yet. I'm not saying it won't.

I mean, Brian Chesky got kind of roasted, but I thought it was an insightful point when he said it's not clear to him that the right interface for hotel booking is a chat interface. He was called a Luddite and this and that, but I think he was right. Some experiences are more visual, and some experiences are more managed.

Harry Stebbings

Well, I think it depends if it's transactional.

Andrew MacDonald

It depends.

Harry Stebbings

"Hey, get me a hotel for my trip to London to see Harry." You probably don't care about it having a sea view and being romantic for you and your wife, but you want it close to the office, efficient from a pricing perspective, and compliant with your HR.

Andrew MacDonald

Yeah. Yeah.

Harry Stebbings

That denigrates the market.

Andrew MacDonald

Yep.

Harry Stebbings

I host a show that is very popular, actually, with 2 other investors who are much more insightful than me, and they talk about the Fortnitification of markets, which is just the shrinking of markets.

Andrew MacDonald

Yeah. Yeah.

Harry Stebbings

And, don't get me wrong, Airbnb is an amazing business.

Andrew MacDonald

Yeah. No, I think it is.

Harry Stebbings

But if you remove transactional booking travel, then it just becomes experiential booking travel.

Andrew MacDonald

Yeah.

Harry Stebbings

It's more—

Andrew MacDonald

No, I think it's a reasonable perspective.

Harry Stebbings

What do you do, then, to get ahead of it?

Andrew MacDonald

I want to be where the consumers are. Ultimately, we've chosen to participate.

Harry Stebbings

Participate with companies like OpenAI?

Andrew MacDonald

Yeah. But really, with any of the large companies, if they want to do something interesting with us on the consumer front end, we'll have that conversation.

Harry Stebbings

Can you participate, though, if you won't give them the data?

Andrew MacDonald

Well, I think that's always a negotiation or discussion around how much they need and where the transaction starts. There are 15 different flavors to this, right? The transaction can originate in different channels and then end in the Uber app. You have to define who has responsibilities for things along the way.

What is the consumer experience? If you go into ChatGPT and say—or even take this hotel-booking example—what happens if the hotel needs to send Harry a message because you asked for early check-in and they can't give it to you? Does that go back through the AI, or is that coming directly from the hotel? Who bears the cost of that?

These are operational elements to the experience that need to be sorted.

And I'm not saying this can't get sorted, but it's not as simple as that. You shouldn't picture the experience that goes right as the archetype of what this usually looks like, because it's the experience that goes wrong or requires some level of management that needs to be solved for.

Harry Stebbings

One of my very dear friends is CEO of one of the largest airlines in the world. He says, “You have no fucking idea how hard my business is. If your baggage is 12 minutes late, I will have 50 fucking emails, and I do 5,000 flights every single day.”

Andrew MacDonald

Yeah, totally. And I'm not naive or saying, “No, no, our business is different. It's hard.” Every business is hard. But I do think these things need to be sorted out.

8. Buying Delivery Hero

Harry Stebbings

Can I ask you one? You bought Delivery Hero. I know Niklas really well. I've interviewed him and really like him. Brilliant guy. I know Oscar from Glovo. I really like him. Why buy it, not just dominate? Is it not just a market maturation question, and you will slowly crush it over time?

Andrew MacDonald

So first of all, I'll say Uber has been on this journey, right? I often get asked the question of what business is going to be bigger long term, or where there is a larger TAM—

Harry Stebbings

Food or mobility?

Andrew MacDonald

Food or mobility.

Harry Stebbings

Yeah.

Andrew MacDonald

Yeah, because even the existential questions we get about AV tend to ignore the fact that we have basically an equally sized food delivery business that's in market-leading positions in most of our markets around the world. We get almost zero credit for that. But putting that aside, delivery has also been growing faster, right? So it's almost as big as mobility, has been growing faster, and has been more constrained from a country's perspective.

We actually did some rationalization of our country portfolio. We didn't launch as many of the frontier markets or emerging markets. We were more capital-constrained when we were scaling delivery. And so Delivery Hero presented a unique opportunity to, in one fell swoop, expand our geographic footprint.

It's not that we could never go launch and scale new markets. We have been launching new countries in delivery, but it takes a lot of time. It just takes time, and it's back to what I was discussing earlier: What's relevant scale? How quickly does it take for a new business line or a new country to get to a relevant scale that matters for Uber?

The other thing is that Delivery Hero has built a lot of local brands that are really strong, right?

Harry Stebbings

And they have exclusivity and lock-in.

Andrew MacDonald

Whether that's true or not, they have consumer mindshare, right? They've built leading brands in Argentina, Korea, and the Middle East. These are brands that consumers identify with, have high household awareness, and are not easily supplemented. And so I think there's value in those brands.

They've also localized their services really well. I think the combined mobility and delivery offerings we'll now be able to offer in those markets will be really compelling for consumers. So it's scale, some of the local brands that they've built, and the platform. For us, when this deal goes through—we have to go through the requisite regulatory and shareholder processes—delivery will be a much bigger business for mobility, and that's an exciting version of Uber for sure.

Harry Stebbings

Are you more passionate about one than the other? I know it sounds weird.

Andrew MacDonald

Which of your kids do you love the most?

Harry Stebbings

The oldest one.

Andrew MacDonald

Actually, my baby right now. She's the most daddy's girl of our 3, so she's got a special-

Harry Stebbings

How old is she?

Andrew MacDonald

She's 18 months.

Harry Stebbings

Okay.

Andrew MacDonald

So—

Harry Stebbings

She's doing 1 sleep?

Andrew MacDonald

Yes, 1 nap a day right now.

Harry Stebbings

Like a venture investor. About 2:00 p.m.—call it siesta. Welcome to Europe, Mike.

Andrew MacDonald

Hopefully less grumpy. Look, I grew up in the mobility business. From 2012 to 2025, I spent 90% of my waking hours and most of my sleeping hours thinking about mobility and rideshare primarily, but also all the other mobility verticals we've built.

As I said, I don't think there's anyone in the world who's spent more hours thinking about rideshare. With delivery, I've managed teams over the years that have serviced the delivery business. It came into my portfolio, quote-unquote, 14 months ago. For the last couple of months, I've been directly running the delivery business.

Our leader of the delivery business left, so I took her role, and I've been doing 2 jobs: my day job and my night job. I literally had to schedule an evening shift because there's just no way to fit my operating cadence in.

Harry Stebbings

Are you just a machine? You are an efficient executor. Even the way that you present, it's efficient.

Andrew MacDonald

Well, look, everyone is struggling to find enough hours in the day. At Uber right now, the teams are pushing hard, and I'm worried that some of our teams are going to run out of gas. You can only push above the red line for so long because we have a lot of opportunity, but also a lot of challenges.

We're best in a crisis. We're best with a challenge in front of us. We're best when we feel like we're up against the world a little bit. That's our DNA, and I'm inspired by that, but it's hard right now. Personally, as I said, I'm working 2 jobs.

But back to your question about which is your favorite business: I'm working in the delivery business and directly pulling the levers myself for the first time ever in my tenure at Uber, and I'm really enjoying it. It's a very complex business—a 3-sided marketplace versus 2-sided. I think there's much more complexity in terms of what the consumer actually values.

The inputs that matter on the mobility side are speed, price, reliability, and safety. It's a longer list on the delivery side of things that you have to nail. And so it's interesting. It's hard. We are not number 1 in the US, which also makes it harder, because I think operating from a position of strength just gives you a nice tailwind.

We're having to play the challenger role, which we relish, but it also changes the game a bit.

Harry Stebbings

Some of my friends who are old Uberites, who I'm sure you know, but I'll keep them out, say, “If Travis were here, we'd be number 1 in food.” Is that true?

Andrew MacDonald

Look, I mean—

Harry Stebbings

I love Dara. I love Dara. I don't know Travis, so—

Andrew MacDonald

No, I—

Harry Stebbings

I don't know.

Andrew MacDonald

No, and look, the reality is that I think anyone who operates anything that says, “If X were this, this would be different”—it's a little bit of that “In the Arena” quote. If you're not in the arena, it's easy to sit on the sidelines and say, “If I were in the arena, or if so-and-so were in the arena, it would be different.”

It's fair to have that opinion, but when you're operating a business, it's hard. You have trade-offs to make, you get things wrong, and you get things right. You don't get credit for the things you get right. You certainly feel and take the blame for the things you get wrong.

So I don't know that there's an alternative history. DoorDash is an excellent company. I think Tony is a tremendous entrepreneur and founder. They operate really well, move quickly, are aggressive, take risks, and are well-capitalized. We have lots of competitors.

Harry Stebbings

Did you ever have the chance to buy them?

Andrew MacDonald

You hear things. As I said, I was on the mobility side of the business. I don't know if that was ever a realistic possibility or not. Of course, there's always speculation, but I don't know.

Harry Stebbings

Do you know one of the best answers I was ever advised on? My dear friend Shakeel Khan, who is Daniel Ek's right-hand man, says, “If ever you get a question you don't want, just go, ‘Hey, mate, that's above my pay grade.’” I'm just a podcaster, me.

Andrew MacDonald

That's a good way to handle it.

Harry Stebbings

Yeah, it's just like, “Me? Nah.”

Andrew MacDonald

No, I honestly don't know the answer to that question.

Harry Stebbings

Was Postmates a good acquisition? Because that seemed like a bit of a nuts one, to be honest. They were running out of cash. It was a challenged business. When I saw that, I was like, “Whoa, they've got balls at Uber.”

Andrew MacDonald

I think we probably get a harder rap on M&A than is deserved because, in many cases, a deal that from the outside you question or aren't sure what you got out of it actually leaps forward internal capabilities that you didn't know you needed. You learn things from the acquisition, get good talent, see where you have gaps, and so on.

I think in the case of Postmates—and again, this is where I'm a sideline observer—I could sit here and tell you that was the greatest deal in the world, or that we shouldn't have done it. But the reality is, I wasn't in the game at that time on the delivery side, so I don't actually know the answer to that.

Postmates has a strong brand, a strong following, and some strong geographic pockets. I think we've been able to build on those.

Harry Stebbings

Are you ready for a quick-fire?

Andrew MacDonald

Sure. Let's do it.

Harry Stebbings

Otherwise, I'm going to get in trouble with Nerf for taking too much of your time.

…and you actually have to be productive in London. What have you changed your mind on most significantly in the last 12 months?

9. Lessons From Two Uber CEOs

Andrew MacDonald

I mean, I’m a humanity bull, and I’m really becoming more interested and obsessed with longevity. I actually do think we’re going to solve all human disease at some point, and the idea of—I don’t know if we’ll live forever, but living a very long time—is going to be possible. I’ve gotten more conviction there.

Harry Stebbings

I saw the Whoop. OpenAI or Anthropic?

Andrew MacDonald

OpenAI. For me, I use both. As we were chatting about earlier, I use voice so much. It’s my single most-used AI feature by a mile—probably 50 times more than anything else. I record notes, emails, thoughts, and lists. I’m constantly working via voice, and I find OpenAI’s voice engine incredible.

Harry Stebbings

I write my investor updates by voice. Yeah, I totally agree with you. Okay, what’s the one thing that you most took from working with Travis? What’s the single biggest lesson?

Andrew MacDonald

I want to give you 2. He’s a problem solver. He will define what he is and what he looks for in others as creative problem-solving.

The ability for him to walk into any meeting on any topic, ask a few pointed questions, float a few ideas, and in 15 minutes change the minds or evolve the thinking of the people in the room who have spent weeks as experts on the topic is amazing. To then go through every day, every week, half an hour, half an hour, half an hour into the evenings, and just do that muscle over and over and over again is so valuable.

I think if, as leaders, we can play that role and do a microcosm of that—maybe not that well—you can move the ball forward a lot. Creative problem-solving as a skill that is valued in an organization is probably the top thing I took.

I think the second is the all-hands that he would host, where he would not only give an answer to a question, but explain his thinking on why that was the answer. I think that’s exceptionally valuable in leaders: to take people through why what you say is the answer. It helps them. It creates mini versions of yourself.

If you can do that across your organization, where you tell people how you got to an answer, you’re amplifying the power of the organization. The way I try to do that is by setting down principles for how I want to think about a given problem, a given solution area, or whatever, and then having my people try to use those principles as they think about the problem themselves.

Harry Stebbings

What’s your biggest takeaway from working with Dara, on the flip side?

Andrew MacDonald

I think the most impactful quote I’ve heard from Dara that speaks to who he is, is, “Management comes from an org chart. Leadership comes from the heart.”

What he means by that is we can create rules and structures and hierarchy, and we can try to follow what the bureaucracy says, but at the end of the day, we have leaders at all levels of the company who are the ones who actually push the company forward. Those are the people who are leading with both the head and the heart. Those are the people who build followership, and that’s exactly who Dara is.

He will not ask you to do anything he wouldn’t do himself. He’s the first one over the fence. He’s the first one on the plane to go where the company needs him. Low ego, lots of heart. He pushes, but it generally comes from a good place, which makes people want to be successful for him and makes people want to say, “What do you need me to do?” That’s really powerful.

Harry Stebbings

You worked with both. We both know the politics that were around. Very few people were able to work with both, and they were like, “I’m a Travis,” or, “I’m from the Dara era.” What made you able to be an OG with both?

Andrew MacDonald

For me, first of all, I think they’re both excellent—

Harry Stebbings

Yeah.

Andrew MacDonald

—in their own domains, and I think Dara was exactly the right leader for Uber when he came in and continues to be exactly the right leader for the company today. They’re different, but it’s not any easier.

For me, it comes back to where we started, almost your first question in the interview, which is, when times have been hard at Uber, I’ve not wanted to leave because I felt like it was the wrong thing for Uber. I’d be leaving my teammates behind, and it just didn’t feel like the right thing to do.

When times are good at Uber, I want to stay because this is fun. We’re building. We’re conquering the world. It’s been hard for me through the worst times and the best times to ever think about leaving, and that’s true regardless of who the CEO has been.

I also firmly believe that people need to take what they can get from their leaders, from their managers, from their boss, and you’re not going to get everything from any one individual. I’ve been able to learn a lot from both of them, and I think that’s been really great.

Harry Stebbings

Final one for you. What’s the best piece of advice you’ve ever been given?

Andrew MacDonald

We hired a woman, Rachel Whetstone, to run our communications and policy team, I want to say around 2015 or 2016. She sent the speech of a commencement address she gave to the whole company in her first week. The central thesis was, “Always say yes. Just jump at the next adventure.”

It really resonated with me because you can always analyze a career opportunity. Should I tackle this problem? I’m being asked to do X. I’m not sure if I’m going to be good at it. It seems like there’s a lot of risk. I always just tell people, “Just say yes.”

A, bet on yourself. You’re going to get in there. It’s going to be hard. You’re going to figure it out. You’re going to be better off for it, and the company will be better off. Or maybe it will be too much for you, but you’ll learn a lot from that failure, and you’ll just be a better version of yourself. I think just say yes.

Harry Stebbings

Honestly, dude, I’ve really so enjoyed this. I do lots of shows, and episodes like this remind me why I love what I do so much. Thank you so much for doing it—

Andrew MacDonald

I appreciate that.

Harry Stebbings

—and for being so brilliant. Honestly, amazing.

Andrew MacDonald

Thank you. Awesome. So great to be here.

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