How to win a stock pitch competition | lessons from an Ira Sohn winner
- Andrew Walker's core reframe: a stock pitch competition is also about selling yourself—not just the stock—"everything is selling," and a great pitch is "a lottery ticket, but you're buying it for free." The downside is a couple hours of work; the upside is prize money, reputation, and a long tail — he still gets emails about his 2018 Ira Sohn win ("I loved your pitch"), and 15 people emailed wanting to hire the CSL team after their podcast appearance. The same skill scales to raising an SPV or, if you're running $500M, pitching a big new client.
- Rule one is meta, not fundamental: "the game starts the moment you decide to enter," and knowing the game—and especially the judges—comes before the research. A three-to-six-month mandate demands a different pitch than a five-year one; Buffett/Ackman-style judges want a moat-y compounder, event-fund judges want restructurings and spin-offs, and pod-shop judges want "consensus is 20 cents EPS, I think 40 cents, they're going to smash it and raise guidance." The winning CSL team explicitly reverse-engineered their idea from the Pershing Square Challenge's framework and judges.
- The best pitch answers "what are you seeing that the market's missing?" with something only you can uniquely bring. "This stock trades at 10x and historically traded at 20x" is an "awful pitch" — "an intern with a Bloomberg could tell you." The dream version is an oncologist pitching a cancer stock where "the market is pricing in 30% odds the drug works and based on my review of the evidence, I think there's an 80% chance" — an unbelievable pitch, with the caveat "we're not trying to go to jail for a stock pitch." His Ira Sohn-winning La Quinta pitch had two unique angles: a one-of-a-kind C-corp-into-REIT transaction in which La Quinta sold the brand to Wyndham and spun its owned hotels into a new REIT with no dividend history, a different tax structure and shareholder base, and a yield-focused REIT framework; and trailing REIT financials that ignored Wyndham synergies — 60% occupancy heading to 70% as Wyndham Rewards filled rooms.
- Be bold: your soft bull case becomes your base case, because "a story works better when there's a little bit more upside." A 115 target on a $100 stock reads as "an average idea"; "my base case is plus 75% — now you're talking." His analogy: a timeshare salesman doesn't hedge about rain and 30-year lock-ins — but stay justifiable, because a $3,000 target means "people are going to discount you and they're not going to trust anything you say."
- Legwork sells even when it doesn't inform: "if you can throw yourself on a slide wearing a hard hat, that's a sign you've done the legwork" — even though site visits are "generally not great for investing." Five customer calls saying "we are switching dollars to this company's product" can be more compelling than any filing-derived claim; students get calls for free that a "40-year-old research analyst" would need an expert network for. Team DoorDash cited around 40 expert calls — "probably overkill for a stock idea," but useful for a pitch.
- The three traps: excessive modeling, drowning in risk, and death by background. More than 15 seconds on the model is "no upside and all downside" — a spotted error or disputed assumption takes judges out of the story; say "price target 150, supported by a DCF, assumptions in the appendix" and move on. Risks get one slide ("McDonald's, GLP-1s — we've thought about it, we don't think it's a risk") unless the situation is genuinely binary, like 1990s tobacco litigation, in which case the binary is the pitch.
- Formatting is table stakes with asymmetric payoff: one typo or inconsistent slide and "the judges are taken out of the story and your credibility goes down." A great pitch with a sloppy deck "is probably going to lose to an average pitch" with a clean one — the MD-circling-mismatched-numbers dynamic applies to pitch decks too.
1. Why a solo episode — and why pitching is a free lottery ticket
- The occasion: it's back-to-school season and Walker gets flooded by college and MBA students prepping for pitch competitions, so he recorded the advice he gives "over and over again." His credentials, offered with self-aware ego: about 400 stock pitches featured on the podcast, a lot of stock pitches judged, the 2018 Ira Sohn win ("probably the most prestigious stock pitch competition there is"), wins across "pretty much all" the online competitions, and hosting the past three Pershing Square Challenge winners.
- The life lesson he'd have rejected at 20: "as you get older, you realize everything is selling." Whether it's a competition, a job interview, raising an SPV on one idea, or ending investor calls with "what ideas are you looking at?" — stock pitches are "the currency of the realm."
- The asymmetry that makes it worth doing: "when you do a stock pitch, you're buying a lottery ticket, but you're buying it for free." Zero downside beyond a few hours; upside includes prize money, and the long tail — someone emailed him last month about his 2018 pitch, and after the CSL team's podcast appearance "I got like 15 people who emailed me... 'I would hire them right now.'"
2. Know the game before you know the stock
- The most important thing — "more important than any of the research, any of the story" — is knowing what game you're playing. If the contest wants ideas that work in three-to-six months, design for that; a five-year pitch is "a very, very different thing," even if the same stock could do both.
- Then profile the judges, who are usually announced in advance. Buffett/Ackman-types get "something moat-y, big reinvestment, a compounder"; five event-fund managers get "a quirky event situation"; pod shops get quarters and consensus — "consensus is revenue up 5% and EPS of 20 cents; I think 15% and 40 cents. They're going to smash it."
- The proof case: the CSL team told him they "were specifically looking for an idea that fit the framework of the challenge and the judges' investing styles" before doing any work — "I thought that was so brilliant."
3. Tell a story: unique edge, told boldly
- His podcast opener is the standard: "the market is a competitive place — what are you seeing that the market's missing?" Sell-side-target arbitrage and mean-reverting multiples are "the worst pitch I've ever heard." The dream version: an oncologist pitching a cancer stock where "the market is pricing in 30% odds the drug works and based on my review of the evidence, I think there's an 80% chance" — an unbelievable pitch, with the caveat "we're not trying to go to jail for a stock pitch."
- His own Ira Sohn winner, La Quinta, as the template: La Quinta sold its brand to Wyndham while spinning its owned hotels into a new REIT — an unusual C-corp-into-REIT transaction involving a different tax structure, company type and shareholder base, with most REITs judged on dividend yield despite this REIT having no dividend history. Plus the underappreciated kicker: trailing financials reflected standalone La Quinta, but post-close the REIT would benefit from Wyndham synergies — 60% occupancy going to 70% via Wyndham Rewards, lower customer-acquisition costs — "and nobody's factoring that in."
- On boldness, the sharpest distinction of the episode: "great investors hedge... great pitches do not do that." Make your soft bull case the base case; judges seeing +15-20% think "average idea," while "+75% — now you're talking." But it must be reasonable and fact-supported — an incredulous target and "they're not going to trust anything you say." The timeshare-salesman analogy carries it: no salesman mentions the rain, the 30-year contract, or the flight at 75 — "it's going to be your little tropical paradise."
4. Legwork sells even when it doesn't inform
- A deliberate inversion of the short-seller maxim ("if you see the CEO wearing a hard hat, it's a short"): for pitches, the hard-hat photo is credibility. He's candid that site visits are generally not great for actual investing — "the company can present it in such a way that anything looks good" — but for a pitch, they show you did the work.
- The escalation ladder for a share-gain claim: "grew 10% vs. competitors' 8%" is something anyone can know; "I called five industry insiders" is edgy; "I called five customers and they said 'we are switching dollars'" is unique, legal if it does not involve MNPI, and not in an SEC filing. Students have a structural advantage: people "try to give college students kind of a solid and talk for free," whereas a 40-year-old analyst gets routed to an expert network.
- Team DoorDash's around 40 expert calls were "probably overkill for a stock idea or to make an investment, but for a stock pitch... you're saying, 'Hey judges, you can trust me.'" Same logic applies to SPV diligence packages — "people just feel more comfortable."
5. The three traps, plus table-stakes formatting
- Excessive modeling: he's seen 10-page decks where five pages are Excel. Spend more than 15 seconds on the model and "you're killing yourself" — numbers are boring, and unlike the pitch itself, model time is "no upside and all downside": one spotted error or one disputed assumption and "you've taken them out of it." One line — "price target 150, supported by a DCF, in the appendix" — suffices; "guess what? Nobody asks."
- Drowning in risk: one slide, acknowledge, move on — "McDonald's, GLP-1s are a risk. We've thought about it. We don't think it's a risk." In his Facebook example, acknowledge the teen-addiction lawsuit he thinks is in Nevada and elsewhere, say "we think it's covered, consensus is right," and move on. The exception: genuinely binary situations like 1990s tobacco litigation or a going-concern warning must be addressed — but then "the pitch is on the binary," a specialized and dangerous pitch that fits some judge panels and not others.
- Death by background: no 20-year company histories eating three of ten pages — "there's a background section of the 10-K; the judges can go read it." Simple, well-known companies are easier to pitch than specialized chemical firms for exactly this reason.
- Formatting is asymmetric: like the MD circling two numbers that don't add up, one typo or inconsistent slide means "they can't trust the rest of your work." His self-deprecating disclosure — AI built this whole deck, "don't do what I did" — and the close: take what's useful, ignore the rest, "and if everything I said didn't make any sense, do the opposite of me... Go for the win."
Full transcript
Today I’m happy to have on myself for a special episode. This is a special episode, and I’ll get there in one second. Normally on this podcast, I have another guest on, and you can listen or watch because the only visual is me and the guest talking. I am a very handsome man, so you might want to see me talking.
But because it’s just me today, I am going to share a brief slide deck that I made as a crutch to help me tell the story. If you want to watch the video, you can, but I am going to try to do this in a way that anyone listening to the audio will get everything.
With that out of the way, let’s go to today’s pitch. Not a pitch—but actually, it is a pitch. Today’s presentation is “How to Win a Stock Pitch Competition.”
The reason I wanted to do this is that it’s Monday, August 24, school is starting up again, and every school year I get contacted by a bunch of college and MBA students who are doing a stock pitch competition and want help with their stock pitch.
I was recently contacted by one, and I try to help anyone who reaches out to me with basically anything. I was swapping notes with this person and said, “You know what? I do this so often, and I’ve been meaning to make a video on how to win a stock pitch competition.”
So I thought I’d go ahead and do it now, while school is about to get back in session. For the students who find this, hopefully it’s helpful for them.
The secondary reason is that I had a podcast scheduled for today and it got canceled. I had this on my mind, I had a free block of an hour, and I thought, “All right, let’s do this.”
Oh, by the way, AI made this whole deck, so if you see something that’s crazy in here, you can just say, “AI, not Andrew,” because AI obviously made the whole deck. I just told it what I wanted. So that’s the overview for today.
Before we dive into the stock pitch competition and pitches and everything, let me give one disclaimer. It’s the same disclaimer I always give, but now you get to see it in video form: Nothing on this podcast is investment advice. It is advice on how to win a stock pitch competition, but I don’t think that’s the same thing. Nothing is investment advice. You can see the full disclaimer on the website, in the show notes, or wherever you want to, including at the end of this podcast.
Second, a word from our sponsors, Trada. Trada is two buy-siders swapping thoughts on a stock that they are involved in. The way to go see it is trada.com, T-R-A-T-A.com. I absolutely love it. Everyone who's reached out from this podcast has told me they love it. And you know, if you're doing a stock pitch competition, I think Trada would be really helpful if you go on there and say, “Hey, I’m thinking about pitching company XYZ, find me someone to talk to about it.” They’ll find you someone, and you can swap thoughts with them, and I think that would be a really helpful way to prep for a stock pitch competition. Prep for the questions you’re going to get. Prep, you know, maybe hear some other sides, hear some other angles you can pull on the stock pitch competition.
All right, all that out of the way, let’s dive into the stock pitch competition. Why am I doing this? I mentioned up front that the real reason is that school is about to start back up, and I’ve found that most stock pitch competitions are designed for college and MBA students. I get contacted all the time, and I wanted something that would be helpful for them.
Here’s the funny thing about life: When I was 20, if you had said, “Hey, Andrew, do you want a sales job?” I would have said, “F no. I don’t want to sell. I hate selling things.”
Now I’m getting a lot of gray hairs. College was 20 years ago for me, and I’m pushing 40. As you get older, you realize everything is selling.
It might not be selling in the sense of, “Hey, I’m selling timeshares,” or “I’m selling life insurance,” or whatever. Those are completely fine jobs, by the way. It might not be that, but you’re always selling yourself. A stock pitch competition is selling yourself.
The way you win a stock pitch competition—again, they’re designed for college students and MBA students, for the most part, people early in their careers—but guess what? What’s the difference between pitching something in a stock pitch competition as an MBA student or a first- or second-year investor and pitching something when you’re running $250 million and raising an SPV to invest in one idea?
You’re about to have to do a stock pitch to everybody you want to invest in that SPV. If you’re running $500 million and pitching to a big new client, guess what? If you’re a fundamental investor, you’re about to do a stock pitch for that client.
While this is ostensibly designed—and it’s really going to focus on the stock pitch of a contest—for an investor, you are always selling yourself. A lot of the things I’m going to talk about here are broadly applicable to all of those situations.
If you’re an investor, you’re always selling. You’re always pitching stocks, whether it’s for a competition, for a job, for an SPV, or just to other investors.
When you talk to other investors, I end the call by asking, “Hey, what ideas are you looking at that I should be looking at?” You don’t have to give a full stock pitch, but the investors you want to talk to more are the thoughtful ones. When you ask that question, they give a thoughtful response or an interesting idea. Stock pitches are the currency of the realm.
So that is why I’m doing this. Let me get to this. You might say, “Hey, Andrew, who are you to talk about stock pitches?”
I run Yet Another Value Podcast, and I’ve had about 400 stock pitches done on the podcast. I’ve judged, quote-unquote, a lot of stock pitches, but I’ve also—I don’t know if I say this with a lot of ego or no ego at all, a lot of humility or no humility at all—won a lot of stock pitches, too.
If you’re watching the video, I won Ira Sohn in 2018, and I think that’s probably the most prestigious stock pitch competition there is. I’ve won that. Online, there are lots of different sites that have stock pitch competitions, and I’ve pretty much won all of them at some point.
I haven’t just judged, quote-unquote, a lot of stock pitches from the podcast. I’ve won a lot of these things, too. When I won them, I used a lot of the things I’m going to talk to you about here. Hopefully, I do have some street cred in terms of having won these things before.
If you’re watching, you can see the clip of me on CNBC talking about winning Ira Sohn. I look at that and say, “My hairline is different now. I think I’ve hopefully lost a little bit of weight. I think my face is a little firmer.”
Oh my God, I’m such a narcissist. But neither here nor there, I do have a track record of winning these things, so I think this comes from a good place.
Another thing you can say is that I’ve hosted the past 3 winners of the Pershing Square Challenge on the podcast. I think the Pershing Square Challenge is probably, again, the most prestigious MBA competition for stock pitches.
Not that I had anything to do with these people winning—I did not. They’re just awesome, and they all won on their own. But I have had them on the podcast and talked to them about how they did their pitches. I think I’m coming from a pretty good place of, “Hey, I know kind of what it takes to win a stock pitch competition.”
All right, I’ll try to put my narcissism out of the way. Again, I tried not to say that with a lot of ego, but maybe it was with a lot of ego.
Let’s talk about why you should care about winning these. We hit on this a little bit, but you’re always selling yourself. If you win a stock pitch competition or give a great stock pitch for an SPV, you’re buying a lottery ticket, but you’re buying it for free.
What’s the downside if you give a great stock pitch and don’t win or don’t get the SPV? There’s literally no downside, except that you put a couple of hours into a great stock pitch. The upside is unlimited.
Somebody could invest a huge amount of money into your SPV. You could win one of these stock pitch competitions. Often, there’s a significant amount of money associated with winning a stock pitch competition. There’s also a lot of reputation.
I’ll point to the CSL team that won the Pershing Square Challenge about 18 months ago. They came on the podcast, and I got about 15 people who emailed me saying, “These guys were unbelievable. I would hire them right now if they were looking for a job.”
Fortunately for them, I believe they all had internships. But you never know when someone being a big fan of yours because you did a great stock pitch will pay off down the line.
For me, I was in it in 2018. 2018 is a really long time ago; sometimes I forget it even happened. But I had somebody email me last month and say, “Hey, I loved your pitch at the competition 8 years ago.” So it’s just a long tail.
You do a great stock pitch, and there’s absolutely no downside and unlimited upside, whether it’s winning now and getting money or recognition instantly, or you just do a great stock pitch and, a year down the line, 2 years, 10 years, whatever it is, somebody comes up and says, “Hey, I thought that was awesome. I’d love to talk to you about something else.” That’s what it gets you.
Let’s talk about planning to win a stock pitch. Here’s the game plan, and again, I may freestyle all this. First, you have to remember that with a stock pitch, you’re playing a game, and you have to remember to play within the rules of the game. We’ll talk about that, then we’re going to talk about the story and framing the story for the stock pitch, and finally, we’re going to talk about the traps that you can fall into when you’re doing a stock pitch.
So let’s start by talking about the game. The game starts the moment you decide to enter a stock pitch competition. The most important thing—more important than any of the research, any of the story, or anything you put together—is actually knowing what type of game you’re playing. A big part of that is knowing the judges.
If you enter a stock pitch competition, you want to design a pitch that can win that competition, and there are 2 things that are critical to that. Number 1, if you enter a stock pitch competition and they explicitly say, “We want stocks that are going to work on a 3-to-6-month time frame,” then you better design your pitch around a 3-to-6-month time frame. If they want stocks that are going to work on a 5-year time frame, you better design a pitch that works on a 5-year time frame.
Those are very, very different things, right? Know what type of pitch you’re doing. If you’re doing a best idea of the year pitch competition, you better have something that you think can work in the next year, and you should explain the reasons why it’s going to work in this specific year. Again, that can be very different from something that’s going to work this quarter or something that’s going to work over the next 5 years. That doesn’t mean something that works this year won’t do great over 5 years, but you want to focus on what’s going to work this year if the pitch is a this-year stock pitch.
The second thing is that you want to know your judges. You should look them up. Most stock pitches make their judges known ahead of time. If all of your judges are Warren Buffett, Bill Ackman, and one other super-concentrated value investor, you’re probably going to want to pitch a stock that would go into a super-concentrated portfolio. You’re going to want to pitch something that’s got a moat, has a big reinvestment opportunity, and is a compounder-type stock, right?
That’s what fits their book and their way of thinking, so you should pitch something that fits their way of thinking. In contrast, if you go into a stock pitch competition and they’ve got 5 guys up there who run event-driven funds, and all of their investments are in restructurings, mergers, spin-offs, and quirky events, you should probably lean into a quirky event situation.
If you go and do a stock pitch and all the people are at pod shops, pod shops are very broad. But for the most part, especially if you’ve got a lot of analysts on there, a lot of the pod-shop people are focused on quarters, consensus numbers, and where consensus numbers might be right or wrong.
If you’re going to pitch to a pod shop, or you’re pitching because you’re applying for a job, you should focus on what pod shops like. You should probably say, “The consensus is that this company is going to grow revenue 5%, and EPS is going to be $0.20. I think they’re going to grow revenue by 15%, and EPS is going to be $0.40. They’re going to smash it, raise guidance, and everything’s going to go up.” You should be focused on that.
Design a pitch that works for your contest and your judges. That’s rule number 1. Those are very different things. What would win with judges who have concentrated books might not win with pod-shop judges, so make sure you’re thinking about that.
I’ll refer again to Team CSL. If you go listen to that podcast, one of the things they said was, “We knew we were pitching in the Pershing Square Challenge. When we were trying to find an idea, we were specifically looking for an idea that fit the framework of the challenge and the judges’ investing styles.” I thought that was so brilliant on their end. You’ve really got to be thinking about that when you pitch.
You’ve got your idea and your pitch lined up. What’s rule number 1 of pitching? You’re telling a story. Tell a compelling story, and there are 3 real ways to do that. A, you want to focus on something unique. B, you want to be bold. Don’t hedge yourself. I find great investors hedge and think about the downsides; great pitches do not do that. The third thing you want to do is the legwork. Let’s dive into those.
Focus on something unique. I start every podcast off by saying, “The market is a competitive place. What are you seeing that the market’s missing?” That is the best pitch you can give. If you go up there and pitch, “This stock trades for 100, and the average sell-side target on it is 120,” that is the worst pitch I’ve ever heard.
You’re saying 20%, which anybody would take at 20% a year, but that is a terrible pitch. If you say, “This stock is currently trading for 10 times price-to-earnings, and historically it’s traded for 20 times price-to-earnings, so I think it’s going to double,” that’s an awful pitch. These are things that an intern with a Bloomberg could tell you. You want something that only you know, and the more you can focus on that in the pitch, the better the pitch is going to be.
I’ll give 2 examples. Let’s say that you’re a trained scientist, a doctor, or whatever it is. Pitching a biotech is very difficult because the judges often don’t have the expertise, but if you could go up there and do a pitch that said, “I am an oncologist, and I’m here to pitch this cancer company because the market is pricing in 30% odds that the drug works. Based on my review of the evidence and my training, I think there’s an 80% chance that the drug works,” that is an unbelievable stock pitch.
You want to make sure you don’t have MNPI or something—we’re not trying to go to jail for a stock pitch—but that’s an unbelievable stock pitch. Let me give another example. My winning pitch was La Quinta.
What happened there was that La Quinta, the hotel chain, was a publicly traded company. They were selling the brand to Wyndham and spinning off all of their owned hotels into a new REIT. My pitch was twofold. Number 1, this was an incredibly weird, one-of-a-kind situation. It wasn’t just a merger with a spin-off; it was a merger of a C-corp into a REIT, and REITs are very different.
It’s a different tax structure and a different type of company, there’s a different shareholder base, and most REITs are judged on dividend yield. They were spinning off a REIT with no dividend history, so you were going to have a lot of turmoil.
The second interesting thing—and this is something unique I kept hammering home—was that the trailing financials of this REIT were based on La Quinta as a standalone company. Once they were spun off, La Quinta, the brand, was going to go into Wyndham, and they were going to get all the Wyndham Rewards members, the Wyndham back office, and everything else.
My pitch was that, as they integrated La Quinta with Wyndham, there were going to be synergies between Wyndham buying La Quinta, but the REIT was going to benefit from those synergies. Hotels that were 60% occupied would be 70% occupied as Wyndham Rewards members started filling them up. They were going to be able to acquire customers more easily, and their customer-acquisition costs were going to go down.
They had all these ways that the trailing financials of the REIT being spun off were not meaningless, but were going to be significantly improved once the deal closed, and nobody was factoring that in. So I had 2 really unique angles to that pitch. As you’re hearing it, particularly if you’re an investor and you’ve been investing for a while, you probably heard 4 or 5 things where you said, “That’s something interesting. That’s what I like. That’s a sign that something could be mispriced.”
Lean into something unique. Whether it’s a unique situation or your unique background that lets you pitch something better than anyone else, lean into that. That’s the first thing I would tell you.
The second thing is to be bold and aggressive. You’re not going to get up there and say, “The stock trades for 100, and my price target is 115.” That’s boring. That’s 15% upside. That’s terrible. Not terrible—I mean, 15% upside is fine—but that’s boring. You’re doing a pitch, and you have to sell yourself a little bit, right?
Your price target isn’t 115; your price target is 150. I’m not saying to do something crazy. If the stock is 100 and you say, “My price target is 3,000,” you’d gosh-darn better have really good reasons why it’s 3,000, because if you do something incredulous, people are going to discount you, and they’re not going to trust anything you say.
But you don't want to be hedging yourself, right? Take what would normally be your bullish case—your soft bull case—and make that your base case. Again, you're telling a story, and a story works better when there's a little more upside, when it's a little sexier, right?
I talked about selling yourself earlier. A timeshare salesman doesn't come and say, “Hey, you're going to love going to Hawaii Beach. It does rain sometimes, and look, you're locking yourself into a 30-year contract. Maybe you're 50 now, but when you're 75, you don't want to fly to Hawaii. That's a pretty long flight. But you're going to love it for the next 5 years, as long as you get good weather.” No, they don't hedge themselves like that, right?
They say, “You're going to Hawaii for the next 20 years. You're going to love it—the beautiful beaches, the weather, everything. It's going to be your little tropical paradise.” So just remember, you don't want to be hedging yourself. Put out a price target that, when people see it, makes them think, “Hey, I'm going to make alpha here.”
It has to be reasonable. It has to be supported by facts. You have to have reasons to support it, but don't hedge yourself, okay? And remember, the judges are seeing a lot of pitches. If they see something that says, “The base case is up 15% or 20%,” they're going to say, “Oh, that's an average idea.”
It's human nature. When you see something that says, “Hey, my base case is 50%,” well, now we're talking. “My base case is plus 75%.” Now you're talking. You excite them. Remember, you're telling a story. Make sure it's something justifiable, that you can back it up and explain why you think it, but tell a good story. Be bold. Be aggressive. Don't hedge yourself.
Third thing: do the legwork. There's this famous short-seller maxim: if you see the CEO wearing a hard hat, it's a short, right? The opposite is true for stock pitches. If you can throw yourself on a slide wearing a hard hat, that's a sign you've done the legwork.
Honestly, wearing a hard hat and doing site diligence is generally not great for stock pitches or for investing, right? Going and visiting a coal mine, generally, you're not going to learn anything new when you visit the coal mine that makes you think, “Oh, this company's a buyer or a seller.” For the most part, when you do a stock visit, unless you do a ton of them and are trained to do them, the company can present it in such a way that anything looks good, right?
So I would say visiting a store, a mine, whatever, is not great for investing. But for stock pitches, it shows you've done the legwork. If you can say, “We went to this company's mine. We went to their headquarters,” whatever it is, and show that photo, that's just a little credibility that you've done the legwork. For stock pitches, that matters.
Again, everything's telling a story. Let me give another example. You go and say, “Hey, I think this company is undervalued because they're taking share from competitors.” If you say that, that's just a claim, right? If you say, “Last quarter, the company grew 10% and its key competitors grew 8%, so it's taking share,” okay, that's nice, but that's something anyone can know.
Now, let's talk about ways to spice it up. “I called 5 different industry insiders, and all of them think the company's new product is better than the competitors' products. Based on that, they're going to take market share.” That's something that, going back to my earlier point, is unique, edgy, and shows you've done the legwork.
Let's take it a step further. I called 5 customers, and those 5 customers said, “We are switching dollars to the company's product versus the competitor's product.” That's a unique thing that backs up everything you're saying. Now you're telling a story and giving the judges things that aren't in an SEC filing. You're giving the judges something unique that is completely legal.
Every time I say “unique,” I'm worried people are going to think, “Hey, break into the company's email and get some MNPI.” No, no, no. You can call customers, you can call competitors, and you can do expert calls. Especially because most stock pitches are done by people earlier in their careers—MBAs or college students—you've got some credibility when you call a customer and say, “Hey, I just want to talk. I'm learning about the industry.”
Most people will try to give college students and MBA students a solid and talk to them for free, whereas if you call and say, “Hey, I'm a 40-year-old research analyst,” they'll say, “Cool, go through an expert network. I don't want to talk to you.” So you've got a little bit of that.
I'll point to the CSL team, but Team DoorDash did this, too. They went and, at the end, said, “Hey, here's all the research we did.” I think Team DoorDash had around 40 expert calls. Again, 40 expert calls is probably overkill for a stock idea or to make an investment, but for a stock pitch, this is telling a story, right?
You're saying, “Hey, judges, you can trust me. Here's all the work that I've done on this.” The same goes if you're raising an SPV. I don't think you need to do 40 expert calls to understand an industry or something when raising an SPV. But when you say, “Hey, write a big check. Here's all the diligence,” people just feel more comfortable.
You've got to sell yourself. You've got to sell the story. So do the legwork. Go get a picture of yourself with a hard hat. Go to an industry conference and get a photo of yourself in front of the power association conference, pointing at that, and pitch the thing. Do the legwork. That's a really compelling part of a stock pitch, and that's the type of thing that puts you over the edge.
What to avoid? Three things to avoid that I see all the time when I work with, especially, college students and MBA students on stock pitches. First, excessive modeling. Every college student wants to show, “Hey, I've mastered Excel.” An MBA student says, “I've mastered Excel. Look how good this model is.”
I've seen stock pitches that are 10 pages, and 5 of them are the Excel model. They've got the income statement, the balance sheet, the cash flow, and then the DCF. That's 4, and then maybe 1 bonus one, I don't know.
Any time you spend more than 15 seconds on the model, you're killing yourself. Why? Numbers are boring. You want to say, “Hey, our price target is 150. It's supported by a DCF. You can see the assumptions of the DCF in the appendix.” Then, if there's a quick Q&A time, the judges can ask you questions about the DCF if they want. Guess what? Nobody does, right?
I'd actually argue that not only is talking about the model boring, but, as I talked about earlier, when you do a stock pitch, it's a lottery ticket. It's all upside, no downside. For a stock pitch, the more time you spend talking about your model, the more you're creating all downside and no upside.
Why? Because if a judge notices an error in your model, or even if your model is perfect but they notice an assumption they disagree with, all of a sudden you've taken them out of it, right? So spend 10 seconds on the model: “Our price target is 150. It's supported by the DCF. It's in the appendix.” Or don't even put it in the appendix; just have the judges ask you about it.
Any time you're spending talking about numbers and diving into the numbers, it's actually counterproductive and taking you out of the story, right? You want to be hitting them with what's unique: the legwork, the story. Spending time in the model is awful.
Drowning in risk. I kind of mentioned this earlier when I said, “Don't hedge yourself,” but you want to acknowledge the risks, say you've thought about them, and move on. In a pitch, you want 1 slide on the risks. Here's your risk, and you just want to say, “McDonald's: GLP-1s are a risk. We've thought about it. We've looked at the data. We don't think it's a risk.” Maybe a little bit more than that, but you don't want to spend a whole ton of time on the risk factors.
There is 1 exception to that. If you're investing in something that's completely binary, where the risk is so obvious and massive that it's close to binary, you need to acknowledge that risk. I'll give you an example: cigarette companies in the 1990s. They had that huge tobacco lawsuit, right? A lot of them filed for bankruptcy or had huge damages.
If you've got something that big and that obvious—if there's a going-concern warning or something—then you need to acknowledge it, and you need to talk about the downside. But there, guess what? The pitch is on the binary, right? So you're actually doing a different pitch, and you want to make sure, because that's a dangerous pitch.
Some places that pitch would work really well; some places that pitch would work really poorly. To go back to my earlier point, choose your games correctly. If you're doing something that's binary or has that huge risk, you're going to have to talk about it. But that's probably a very specialized pitch, right?
In general, you're pitching Facebook. You're pitching Facebook right now. Facebook is facing—I’m sure there's some type of EU investigation—but the real thing in the headlines for Facebook is that it's facing a lawsuit in, I think, Nevada and a few other places: “Were you addicting teens? Did you design Facebook, Instagram, or whatever to get teens addicted?” They're facing liabilities there.
Acknowledge it, say, “We think it’s covered. We think the consensus is right,” and move on. You don’t want to spend a lot of time diving into that. You spend tons of time on all downside and no upside.
Last thing: death by background. I see a lot of these pitches, and they’ll spend the first three pages of a 10-page deck on, “Here’s a 20-year background of this company.” No, absolutely not. Just say, “This is what the company does,” and move on.
In terms of selection, everything is about trying to work toward the pitch. It is a little bit easier to pitch a simple company that a lot of people know than a really specialized company. If you’re pitching a super-specialized chemical company, you might have to spend a little more time on, “Here’s what they actually do. Here’s where the chemicals go.” But there’s a background section of the 10-K. The judges can go read it. They can go look at it. They can do the work.
You just want to say enough so people know what the business is, and then you can get into your really unique stuff. Again, you’re telling a story. The more time you spend in the background, the worse. Tell the story and get to your best stuff.
Those are the things to avoid. The last thing is risk. It is funny saying this because, as I mentioned, this whole thing was designed by AI. I just said, “Here’s what I’m looking for. Move these slides around.” I really didn’t do a lot. The words on all of these slides are not necessarily perfect, because I had the AI do a lot of this.
The last thing I’ll remind you is that proper formatting is table stakes. There’s this old thing where you’re an analyst at an investment bank or a consulting firm, and you present this big pitch deck. On slide 17, your managing director circles something and says, “Hey, these two numbers don’t add up. Can you tell me what’s going on here?”
Why does that matter? It doesn’t matter in the absolute. They might also say, “Hey, this slide is formatted slightly differently from all the other slides in the deck.” That doesn’t matter in the absolute, either. What matters is that once they see one thing that’s sloppy, they can’t trust the rest of your work.
A stock pitch can be similar. I’ve seen stock pitches where the formatting switches from slide to slide. I’ve seen stock pitches where there’s one typo in the deck, or there’s one number off, or something else. The moment you have something like that, the judges are taken out of the story and your credibility goes down.
Design these yourself. Don’t do what I did and have AI put all the words in. Make sure all the words make sense. Make sure everything flows into your story. Make sure the formatting is good. Make sure all the numbers are right, and all that sort of stuff.
Having perfect formatting has very low upside—it’s table stakes—but it has really significant downside. A great pitch is probably going to lose to an average pitch if the average pitch has a normal slide deck and the great pitch has a terrible slide deck that keeps taking the judges out of the story.
One last thing: this was designed by AI, whatever. Go for the win. I want you to win the stock pitch competition.
I think I’ve rambled on about this for a long time. A lot of this does have overlap with an episode I did on how to get a job in investing, and I’ll include a link in the show notes. There are a lot of parallels because, again, when you’re trying to get a job in investing, you’re selling yourself. A lot of getting a job in investing is doing a stock pitch and saying, “Hey, I follow finance. I follow the markets. Here’s my stock pitch.”
There is some overlap here, but hopefully this was helpful. College season, NBA season, and stock pitch season are coming up.
You can find me at another value blog.com. You can find my podcast and all that sort of stuff. I’m always happy to help. I made this podcast because I’m always happy to help, but I also made it because I give the same advice over and over again. If you’re doing a stock pitch, listen to this podcast. Hopefully you learn from it. Hopefully it helps.
I’m not saying that everything I said here was perfect. Hopefully you can say, “I’d love it if everything here makes sense to you. Take it all. If 2 of the things made sense and everything else didn’t make sense, take the 2 things and ignore everything else. And if everything I said didn’t make any sense, do the opposite of me.”
I don’t care. It’s not my stock pitch; it’s your stock pitch. But, again, I’ve got a lot of experience with these. Hopefully everything I said here was helpful, and I’m always personally happy to be helpful if I can. That is my how-to-win-a-stock-pitch pitch. I’m going to wrap it up there, and we will chat soon. Okay.
>> Disclaimer. Nothing on this podcast should be considered investment advice. Guests or the host may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned during this podcast. Please do your own work and consult a financial advisor. Thanks.