EasyEats - $30 HOOD Call, Polymarket Edge & Peptides
Thread Guy’s largest allocation is HOOD, held without selling even near $160. The host said he was buying around $30. Thread Guy’s “wicked simple” thesis is that younger generations lack older customers’ bank allegiance and will consolidate banking, mortgages, prediction markets, crypto, and equities in apps. Robinhood targets lower-net-worth, higher-volume users; IBKR targets wealthier users with lower individual volume.
Thread Guy prefers LifeMD (LFMD) to HIMS for the peptide trade. He described LFMD as a roughly $200 million company near $4.64 whose pharmacy infrastructure could support compounded peptides. He said a July 23 FDA meeting could trigger a major move, assigned approval a 70-80% probability, and said rejection would cause a severe pullback but merely delay approval. He also called HIMS a good long and said he would consider shorting Novo Nordisk if newer GLP products became legal, while acknowledging Novo would need time, licenses, and approvals. He bought retatrutide from a lab but has not taken it.
Thread Guy favors infrastructure that benefits regardless of which AI model wins. He likes PWR/Quanta, whose backlog runs through 2027 and includes government, Anthropic, and OpenAI work, because AI and quantum both require power, compute, and facilities. He is also heavily long Apple through calls and shares, citing the incoming CEO—probably John Ternus—consumer hardware, and the ability to partner with Gemini or another winning AI provider. The host separately recommended IREN, TeraWulf, Bloom Energy, DHT, and FRO.
Thread Guy’s Claude esports bot ingested six years of League of Legends data and was up roughly 18-19%, including one 21-0 day at small size. He sees obscure Tier 3 and Tier 4 Polymarket matches as information-rich, but admits his main problem is overtrading because he enjoys clicking buttons. He also likes meeting markets and short-window FDV markets, including a reported roughly 27% gain on a CHiP FDV trade.
The host, not Thread Guy, highlighted a trader he identified variously as Euan/EUM/Unicar, who reportedly turned $15,000 into $800,000 through wallet tracking and bankroll management. The host described tracing a wallet through an ENS, multiple layers of obfuscation, and a tumbler, then copy-trading it for a reported $40,000-$50,000 win. Thread Guy said wallet tracking is tedious and full of dead ends.
Thread Guy’s bankroll rule is “size early and then size slow.” His $100 challenge reached roughly $1,500 before he got distracted: tiny accounts require aggressive swings, but larger balances should be managed through base hits. Separately, the host described using and resetting small public trading balances to control his own button-clicking.
The closing discussion covered MegaETH FDV markets and the host’s DHT/FRO tanker thesis. The host listed MegaETH probabilities while Thread Guy considered $2 billion reasonable, then leaned toward “no” above $1.8 billion near $0.66 and preferred waiting for live price discovery. The host said DHT and FRO tankers had charged roughly $500,000 per day during the late-March disruption, potentially creating an underpriced Q1 earnings tailwind. The host also said everything in his mind tells him to be short, but repeated stop-outs keep forcing him to reassess.
1. HOOD is a Gen Z finance bet
The host said he was buying HOOD around $30 and had been publicly bullish. Thread Guy said HOOD is his largest allocation and that he has not sold a dollar, even near $160.
Thread Guy’s thesis is “wicked simple”: younger users do not have older generations’ allegiance to incumbent banks and can obtain banking, mortgages, prediction markets, crypto, and equities in one app. He expects Robinhood’s younger user base and user numbers to keep growing.
In response to the host’s IBKR comparison, Thread Guy said the platforms serve different demographics: IBKR has higher-net-worth users with higher spend and lower individual volume, while Robinhood targets lower-net-worth users with higher activity.
Both speakers criticized retail pre-IPO access at valuations such as SpaceX around $1.5 trillion, Anthropic around $1.2 trillion, and OpenAI around $1 trillion. Thread Guy said broader access may eventually help retail, but that individuals should not trade pre-IPOs because the risk-reward is terrible.
2. July 23 is the peptide catalyst
Thread Guy prefers LFMD to HIMS: roughly $4.64, up about 35% on the year, with an approximately $200 million valuation. His reason is that LFMD owns a pharmacy and therefore has the infrastructure to compound peptides if approval is granted.
He described July 23 as the FDA meeting for approval of compounded peptides, assigned approval a 70-80% probability, and predicted an “Avis-level candle” if the decision is favorable. He said rejection would cause the group to “pull back hard as fuck,” but argued approval is a matter of when, not if.
Thread Guy also called HIMS a good long because of its distribution infrastructure, supply chain, monthly subscribers, and partnership with Novo Nordisk to sell white-labeled Wegovy and Ozempic. He said he would consider shorting Novo if newer GLP products became available, arguing that Novo has manufacturing for GLP-1s but would need time, licenses, and approvals for the newer product.
He bought retatrutide from a lab after researching how easy it was to obtain, but has never taken it. He said returning to the gym and tracking calories made him wonder whether doing the work could produce similar results, and that he is worried about unknown drug repercussions.
3. Own the infrastructure beneath AI and compute
Thread Guy’s lower-in-the-pyramid logic leads him away from Nvidia, Google, and Microsoft and toward infrastructure. He likes PWR/Quanta because it builds data centers and has backlogs through 2027, including contracts involving the government, Anthropic, and OpenAI.
His reasoning is that AI and quantum both require more electricity, compute, and facilities. Regardless of which system wins, the company building the facilities can benefit.
Thread Guy is also heavily long Apple through calls and shares. He cited Tim Cook’s planned departure, the incoming leader—identified in the exchange as probably John Ternus—and strong Mac, Mac Studio, and Mac mini demand. He said Apple does not need to build the winning AI application: it can partner with Gemini or whichever provider prevails while supplying the consumer hardware layer.
The host separately recommended IREN and TeraWulf, mentioned Bloom Energy in connection with Leopold Aschenbrenner’s energy-and-GPU thesis, and later offered DHT and FRO as alternative trades. Thread Guy’s closing list included PWR, ETN, Apple, and a long Hyperliquid position.
Thread Guy said he is bearish on eventual Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs alongside SpaceX because three companies valued above $1 trillion could overwhelm available market liquidity.
4. Polymarket offers obscure edges, then encourages overtrading
Thread Guy said he fed roughly six years of League of Legends data into a Claude bot that trades esports markets. He reported that it was up roughly 18-19% consistently and had one 21-0 day at small size.
Polymarket offers Tier 3 and Tier 4 esports matches that sportsbooks often do not list, while online data makes those matches analyzable. Thread Guy’s problem is behavioral rather than informational: after an initial gain, he may hammer hundreds across multiple games and give it back. “I just enjoy clicking the buttons.”
He prefers meeting markets where headlines, delegation reports, and flight trackers can provide information. He discussed “no” positions on Iran-related meetings by April 26 and April 27 because the delegation did not appear likely to arrive before the following week.
He also likes short-window FDV markets because they settle at 4:00 p.m. Eastern the following day. On CHiP, he said watching the chart and major assets gave him a better read on price action and produced a reported roughly 27% gain over about an hour and a half, though the exchange also clarified that he traded the FDV market rather than the coin itself.
5. Onchain visibility exposes counterparties
The host described his own major Polymarket trade on whether MrBeast would raise $3 million for TeamWater. After seven days of weak fundraising, he researched prior campaigns and found that most contributions arrived during the final 72 hours. He said roughly $1,000 became a reported $67,000 by betting yes.
The host also described a Lord Miles desert-fast market where wallet tracking helped him exit after detecting what he characterized as self-trading.
He highlighted a trader he identified in the exchange as Euan, EUM, or Unicar, who reportedly turned $15,000 into $800,000 through bankroll management and wallet tracking. The host described a wallet funded through an ENS associated with a government official, six layers of obfuscation, and a tumbler whose matching funds emerged two hours later. He said copy-trading the wallet produced a reported $40,000-$50,000 win.
Thread Guy said he never became good at wallet tracking because it is tedious and full of dead ends. The host argued that prediction markets remain unusually actionable because traders can inspect leaderboards, visualize positions, and see who is on the other side.
6. Current trades require patience and sizing discipline
The host listed MegaETH FDV probabilities of roughly 70% above $1.2 billion, 65% above $1.4 billion, 48% above $1.6 billion, and 29% above $2 billion, against a Hyperliquid market around $1.8 billion. Thread Guy said $2 billion felt reasonable, then reasoned that long-waiting holders would likely want to sell.
Thread Guy later considered under $1.8 billion at roughly $0.66 on the “no” side a decent setup, but preferred waiting to see live price discovery because the market closes at a known time and odds can move sharply. The speakers were uncertain about the precise unlock mechanics: the host mentioned 20% unlocking, then qualified that he believed it might be 20% of 20%, and Thread Guy said the details needed checking.
Thread Guy’s trading-challenge lesson was “size early and then size slow.” His $100 account reached roughly $1,500 before distraction intervened. He said tiny accounts require aggressive swings, while larger accounts allow traders to stack base hits rather than gamble for survival.
The host separately explained that he uses small public trading balances and removes money from easy-to-click venues to contain his own overtrading.
The host’s alternative oil trade was DHT and FRO, which he said own large tankers that charged roughly $500,000 per day during the late-March disruption—about 200% above the prior closure or delay. Because the final 14 days of March fell into Q1, he expected earnings to beat assumptions and argued the opportunity remained underappreciated even with oil and the shares lower.
The host said everything in his mind tells him to be short, but repeated stop-outs keep forcing him to respect the market’s upward grind. Thread Guy agreed that this happens “every single time.”
Full transcript
Boom. Easy with a new username. I was trying to find your profile today, and I was struggling, but I figured it out now, man. How are you?
I’m good, bro. I cannot complain. Life is good. I’ve been busy.
I know. I’ve been following. Is that a sponsored hat, by the way?
No, I wish. I’m a massive Robinhood holder.
Yeah, I was buying. Dude, if you go back and search up “Hood” on my page, I was screaming from the mountaintops at $30. I was screaming about this thing.
Really? Is that one of your best trades ever?
What’d you say?
Is that one of your best trades ever?
It’s my largest allocation, and I haven’t sold any.
You didn’t sell Hood the whole run-up?
No.
Not even at $160? You didn’t sell any?
Not a single dollar. I’m not going to sell.
Why, bro?
The bet on Hood is the simplest bet of all time, in my opinion. My entire thesis on Hood is that Gen Z finance is only going to continue to become more online, and the bet is that younger generations don’t have allegiance to banking like older generations do.
When you think of it from our parents’ perspective—and even myself—I’m a Capital One guy. I’ve been with Capital One forever, basically since I was 18, because it was one of the first times I could get everything on my phone. But now these younger generations can get everything in an app, from banking to mortgages to prediction markets to crypto to equities, all in one app.
The entire thesis is wicked simple: I believe those people are going to continue to increase their user numbers, and their target demographic is a younger generation.
I said, what about IBKR? It’s ripping. I was going to talk about that.
They’re ripping because of fees and because the average user has a much higher spend. They’re two different demographics. You’re looking for lower net worth and higher volume on Robinhood, while IBKR is targeting higher-net-worth users with lower individual volume.
Got it. That thing is—fees are ripping on IBKR. Also, I’m sitting here watching Korean stocks, SK Hynix, and thinking to myself, why don’t I have access to any of this?
Which is the crazy part. You’re going to get access to that. That’s the reality. We’re already seeing it: tokenized equities are just the start. You’re going to end up getting more and more access to international markets and even private equity.
I’m not a big private equity guy. You could go into these pre-IPO stocks, but I’m not touching Anthropic at a trillion dollars. I’m not touching SpaceX at a trillion dollars. There are significantly better plays with way more upside, in my opinion.
I think it’s pretty predatory, by the way, what they just launched. I’m just going to say it.
100%.
What are we doing? It’s like, “Okay, cool. Congratulations. You should thank me because I’m now giving you access to pre-IPO stocks.” Here’s SpaceX at $1.5 trillion, Anthropic at $1.2 trillion, and OpenAI at a trillion. What the fuck are we talking about, bro?
I could go and buy a pre-IPO stock in Anthropic below a trillion right now on-chain. You had the chance to do it with size—not insane size, but you could easily get five figures into a single clip with ease.
You have perpetuals, pre-IPO stocks, xStocks. There are like 7 different options. Granted, you’re not getting half a million dollars into the thing, but you could easily get five figures in a single clip with ease.
I think it’s pretty predatory what they did. I’m not going to lie.
Completely agree. The more interesting thing, though, to your point, is Robinhood giving access to pre-IPOs.
They’re kind of doing the same thing, by the way. They’re like, “Take SpaceX at $1.5 trillion.”
Yeah. The SpaceX one I’m not a fan of, but you have to think they have to start somewhere. As they start somewhere, they’re going to open up their book for wider retail.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not the biggest fan of it. I’m a much bigger fan of the fact that you could have bought Anthropic or OpenAI at around $500 million. You had a 23x—not with unlimited size, but you had the opportunity. I’m more interested in that for sure.
There are pros and cons to it, but overall, when I think about that side of the market, I think that as an individual retail trader, you should not be trading pre-IPO at any point. I don’t think either of us should be trading pre-IPO. The risk-reward is terrible.
It is pretty bad. I don’t touch it. People were asking me today if they should trade the Eventual stuff, and I don’t really like it.
What about HIMS? I saw you posting about it. I traded it pretty well.
You had a good trade. You had a really good trade.
Thank you. I saw you posting about it. Where are you at with the peptide trade and all of that?
LFMD is my better play than HIMS. LifeMD.
Yeah, it’s $4.64. It’s a low-priced stock. It’s up 35% on the year.
You have to remember, the way I think about equities is much different from how I trade crypto—significantly different. I’ve been trading equities since I was 16.
Really?
I go into 10-Qs and all this stuff. I read a lot.
$200 million. This is like a fucking memecoin, bro.
The reason I like it is because they own a pharmacy, so they can actually compound drugs and have the ability to create compounded peptides.
July 23rd is a big date. That’s the biggest date for peptides. It’s the FDA meeting for approval of compounded peptides. If approved, LFMD is going to put in a candle that makes Intel look like child’s play. It’s going to put in an Avis-level candle, in my opinion, because they have the infrastructure to actually create compounded peptides.
Their only issue is if Eli Lilly does not allow licensing of retatrutide.
What happens on July 23rd, you said?
The FDA has its meeting on July 23rd for approval of compounded peptides. So if they approve it—
You mean for approval?
Okay. Retatrutide can be sold to the general consumer, which is where HIMS will see a leg up, because they license Wegovy and Ozempic from a company called Novo Nordisk.
Yes.
Novo Nordisk has a partnership with HIMS.
Yeah.
That partnership allows them to sell Wegovy and Ozempic white-labeled. They can sell them as HIMS products.
The benefit of HIMS is that it has the infrastructure and supply chain to distribute, and it has monthly subscribers. They have an $89-a-month subscription and 2.5 million subscribers, I believe. HIMS has a ton of money.
I think that’s right. Yeah.
Which is amazing. With Novo Nordisk, I actually think that if this is approved, you short Novo Nordisk.
Why? Why?
Because they only have GLP-1s. If GLP-3s are allowed, are off the gray market, and are allowed for retail, GLP-1s are significantly less valuable, because a GLP-3, from an agonist perspective—
Couldn’t they just sell and manufacture GLP-3?
They don’t have the manufacturing for it. They have the manufacturing for GLP-1s, which is why LFMD is a much more interesting play. They have the infrastructure to support GLP-1s.
But surely they’re thinking about this. Truly, they’re thinking about this.
They absolutely are, but it takes a while to get that up and running. You need licenses. You need a whole bunch of shit that has to come into play, and they don’t have the approvals.
And so this little $200 million company—
Has the approvals.
Interesting. Why would you not go long HIMS?
I think going long HIMS is a great play too. Going long HIMS is a great play, but when you find a winner, there are always alternative plays that usually outperform percentage-wise.
Two days ago, LFMD put in a 23% candle—an absolutely ludicrous candle—and it was just on the back of HIMS being a lagging trade. I look at a lot of that stuff the same way when I go down the AI rabbit hole. I don’t want to buy Nvidia. I don’t want to buy Google with Gemini. I don’t want to buy Microsoft with its OpenAI exposure.
I want to buy shit that’s lower down the pyramid. I’m looking at data center construction companies.
People are like, “That’s ridiculous.” Pull up the PWR chart and you’re going to be like, “What in the fuck?”
This thing is up 100% a year over 5 years. It’s pretty gross. Are you long this or no?
I think you should still be long this. I think this is the best possible play for AI.
What do they do? They build data—
They’re a construction company for data centers. The benefit is that quantum is only going to need more compute, and Quanta has backlogs through 2027, with contracts from the government, Anthropic, and OpenAI.
They cover everything. As they need more electricity and compute, you need the facilities for all of it, regardless of whether you go AI or quantum. This is the company that builds them.
What happens if July 23rd comes and it doesn’t get approved?
They’ll all pull back extremely hard. They’ll pull back hard as fuck, but the thing is, it just kicks the can down the road. It will get approved. It’s a matter of when, not if, especially with RFK in your corner.
I think there’s a 70% to 80% chance of approval.
Should I Polymarket on that?
I was looking, and I couldn’t find one, but I’m sure there will be one as it gets closer.
Interesting. Where are people getting their retatrutide right now? They’re just taking that, buying that shit—
What’d you say?
Where are people getting their Reta?
Bro, there are a bunch of pharmacies—not even labs—that you can buy it from online.
So, bro, I bought Reta. I haven't taken it. I bought it and went through the whole process.
Where'd you buy it from? Or can you not say?
Bro, I bought it from a lab.
Like, from some lab? How'd you find a company?
I just went down a rabbit hole on Reddit. When I get interested in something like this, I go through the whole process to see how easy it is, what it looks like, what the friction is, all this stuff. I literally have the vial; I've never taken it, and it's just sitting in my fridge.
You inject it in your ass? Is that how it works?
You can inject it in your leg, your stomach, your arm—anywhere.
Just for fun?
Yeah. I think the people who inject it in their ass just enjoy that type of shit.
Got it, got it. Why, and what would decide if you take it or not?
I mean, bro, when I was going through it, I was like—
I feel like you look good, bro.
That was the thing. Before I took it and before I even ordered it, I just got back in the gym and started tracking calories.
Like your face, bro.
I just went down the rabbit hole of, “Yo, what if I actually did the work?” I was like, “Okay, if you just do the shit work, you have the same results, so why not just do the shit work?”
You have the same results.
I mean, I wouldn't hate taking it, but I'm just afraid of drugs. I'm taking the Hims thing, and I'm afraid. You know what I mean? I'm worried I'm going to be low T and have problems.
You don't know what the repercussions are.
It's a tough one.
It's a tough one. Do you take finasteride?
I don't take anything, bro. I take allergy medicine because my ass lives on a farm. That's it.
The allergies are tough.
Allergies are tough in New York—really bad.
Okay. What do you make of some of the moves today? Prediction markets are up a bit, but what do you make of them? Semis are disgusting. Some of these moves are crazy.
It's a no-brainer, though. Look at every tech play right now—they're absolutely shattering earnings. Tesla's beat was the biggest shock to me. I was watching Tesla, and I was like, “Fuck, I hate Tesla.”
So do I.
It's like launching a second coin, you know what I mean?
I drive a Tesla and I hate—
Yeah, bro. I love my car. I love full self-driving.
Full self-driving. Do you use it or no?
Yeah. Oh, yeah. Anytime, dude. I'm a pretty decent way from Miami, and I've had to go there a couple times. I just use full self-driving the whole trip because it's lazy.
Whoa, full self-driving the whole way? No problem? You check on your phone?
No, bro, you can just chill.
You're just texting and on Twitter?
Just chill, bro. It's revolutionary.
But the thing is, the dev's launching another coin.
Dev's launching another coin. This is my take, too. The dev has 6 other projects they're working on, right? They're spread thin.
You don't sleep in full self-driving, dude.
You can't sleep. There's a camera on the inside that watches your eyes. Even when you're on your phone, you have to hold your phone up because it has a sensor to make sure you're not distracted.
It's what? So you're just getting surveilled by some call center?
You think so, but it's all local storage. You have to think of the Tesla as a computer. It's stored on the computer in the car. There isn't internet on the computer in the car, so there's nowhere for it to export to unless you connect to Wi-Fi somewhere.
Huh. Okay. So, what are you long right now?
Right now, bro? I'm long Apple. I'm gigalong Apple right now.
You just said you want small caps. I don't hate that, though. By the way, why are you long Apple?
Tim Cook is stepping down, and the new guy is coming in. I think the new guy's fresh, by the way. If you look into his background, the guy's smart as shit.
He's pretty fresh.
Generationally—what's his name? John—
John Ternus or something like that.
Ternus. Yeah, yeah. I forget how to pronounce his last name, but when I looked into this guy, I was like, “Oh, shit. This is the dude. He gets it. He totally gets it.”
I think he's fresh.
Yeah, bro. When you look at that and realize all this stuff is moving in the right direction for AI and tech, the benefit of Apple is that they don't actually need an AI application.
Yeah. They just plug it in, right?
Dude, the Mac sales, the Mac Studio sales, the Mac mini sales—it's the application layer for the general consumer. I'm like, “Shit, this is a no-brainer.” The sell-off for Tim Cook stepping down was the perfect time to go long. I was like, “Yeah.”
It didn't sell off very much, did it? A couple percent?
Barely, bro. It went down to around 264 or 265, at least right now. Amazon's at an all-time high, and you have crazy AI plays ripping. Why the hell is Apple not crushing it when every one of their computers is sold out for months? For literal months.
Yeah. I have 3 Macs. It's just the best product. I have a phone in the back, too. I love Apple.
You're literally pitching the bull case right here. On top of it, with all this AI shit, they don't need an AI system. They can just partner with Gemini—I think it was Gemini, I'm pretty sure—for what they're going to use with Siri. That's smart, because now they don't have to worry about who wins. They can contract with whichever one they opt for, while providing the tech underneath it: the system, the actual computer.
It's a much better play. It's the same thesis I have with electricity companies, GPU rental companies, and all that stuff that benefits regardless of where AI goes. You don't need the best AI system. Just provide the tech for it to continue winning, regardless of which system is the best.
Claude's so fucking bad now. I'm so sick of it.
Oh, bro, I still use it. I don't use—
I'm done. I'm done after today. I'm so sick of it. It's so bad.
So, are you using Codex? Are you using ChatGPT?
No. I let my GPT subscription expire, and I went to use it today. My credit card had fraud on it, so I have all these subscriptions that are bricked. I didn't feel like putting a new card in, but I have to do it now because Claude is completely bricked. It's pretty horrifying.
I've read a bunch of people bitching about it, and I haven't gone down the rabbit hole of messing with Claude. I talked to Maz, my absolute GOAT.
Oh, I love Maz.
The GOAT. He was like, “Bro, use Codex.” I was like, “Okay, if you're telling me to use Codex, I'm—”
Yeah, everyone's saying Codex.
It's kind of gotten a little fruity, you know?
I get it. I'm constantly building and tinkering with shit, and I want something that's still good. I'm hooked on Claude because of how good it's been, but I've noticed that it's starting to be a fucking idiot. I'm like, “What are we doing here?”
Someone's frying me in the chat. My credit card had fraud on it 2 months ago, and I just haven't dealt with it. They call me every day about it. Nothing works on my computer; all my subscriptions are bricked. It's pretty bad, but I have my debit card. It works fine. My debit card's fine.
You're good, right?
High-key, I love when that shit happens because I'm like, “Oh, this is dope.”
Yeah. I just got hella cash on my debit card. The credit card's an annoying thing. Whatever. Sad side tangent.
Um
Real quick, someone in the chat said, “When do I go live daily?” I’m plugging myself. Live at noon Monday through Friday.
It’s a good time, dude. It’s a really good time.
I just like the midday, bro. I was streaming at night and I was like, “I’m just kind of tired.”
Night’s ass.
Yeah. And at noon, I’m like, “Oh, I get all Europe and the market’s open, so I can just rip the market during the day.” Bro, we caught the full S&P retrace yesterday live, and I was euphoric because I want to go short so bad.
No, I was so mad because I was on a call for standup and I was screaming, “This is bullshit! I longed Bitcoin instead of going long.”
Yeah, it didn't even dump. I'm like, “What? This is crap. This is crap.” I don't want to long SPY. That's pretty gay. I'm like, “What do I long? BTC?”
I'm still sitting in it. It's the worst asset ever. I longed BTC, and I was pissed because I was like, “Bro, this is obviously fake. Israel's Channel 12 is always fucking lying. None of this is real.” This has been a massive escalation.
This is fake. I long BTC, and I’m just stuck in a cuck coin, bro.
Yeah, we caught the little hotel watching your stream earlier. How much was it? They were like, “How much do you have? 100 BTC or something? 20 BTC.” I was like, “Bro, what are we doing here?”
No, we call the little hotel chair in the corner the Bitcoin chair now. It watches SK Hynix and Nvidia. It’s brutal. So, where are we at with prediction-market trading? Where are we at on Polymarket right now?
Still getting cooked because, bro, I’m a degenerate. The worst part is I love gambling on esports. I love it too much.
On esports.
I have to stop.
Yeah, I have to stop.
What do you gamble on in esports, bro?
Counter-Strike, League of Legends.
Really?
What’s even more interesting—and I wish I just didn’t click as many buttons—is that someone asked what I did with Claude. I ingested about 6 years of League of Legends data into this Claude bot that’s trading a portfolio for me right now. It’s up like 18% or 19% consistently. It’s just been a slow grind up and to the right. It takes winners, and when it hits, it hits. It had a 21–0 day on small bet size, and I was like, “Fuck.”
Oh, start—
Just grind. The way I thought about it, and the reason I liked it, was that these Vegas sportsbooks have some lines for esports, but Polymarket gives you lines for the most ridiculous ones. I’m talking about Tier 3 Brazilian national-team matchups that no one has ever heard of.
Right. Like Brazilian Counter-Strike.
Yeah. If you’re familiar with soccer, there’s the best team, like Arsenal and all this shit, and then there are Tier 2 teams and Tier 3 teams. I’m talking about Tier 3 and Tier 4 teams, but there’s so much data on them because everything’s online that you can actually find an edge. My bigger issue is that I just enjoy clicking the buttons. When I don’t have a trade open and I’m bored, I’m like, “Yeah, fuck it. Let me just rip this shit.” This is a deep, deep gambling edition.
It is. I couldn’t help myself.
100%. 100%. But someone else is like, “Cooker’s the GOAT.” I watch Cooker put $100 grand to win like $600 sometimes, and I’m like, “Fuck, you’re crazy.”
Oh, that’s horrible.
You’re crazy. I watch that, but at the same time, there’s other stuff where I’m like, “Fuck, I should just be slow-rolling this.”
And so, you’re betting these on Polymarket?
Everything’s on Polymarket.
So, Polymarket has lines for esports that nobody else has.
Yeah. A ton of them. A disgusting amount, bro.
Really? So the Polymarket esports market divisions are just cracked?
They just have everyone you could possibly imagine. Then I look at sportsbooks, and they don’t have lines for some of these. Those are the ones where I’m like, “Okay, there’s got to be an edge somewhere on this.” That’s the thing: I just overtrade. It’s my biggest—
What is your biggest esports Polymarket loss?
Single digits.
Biggest, but not crazy?
One day is a few grand.
Okay, okay, okay.
It’s not an insane balance. It’s just a slow grind down because I’ll go up, and then I’ll start hammering multiple hundreds across 6 games and go on a crazy cold streak. In reality, the best markets on prediction markets I’ve found are meeting markets, where I just wish liquidity were deeper because there’s inherently an edge. Then there are these meeting markets where I look at stuff like, “Will the US meet with Iran by—” Trump meeting with the G7 and shit like this, the Kushner and Witkoff meeting in Iran.
Right.
I actually like the no for this weekend, and it’s at like $0.70, which I’m like, “Yeah, this actually makes sense.” Iran isn’t sending their delegation there, and you can quite literally use flight trackers to see whether they’re there or not. I’m like, “Yeah, this makes sense,” and then you just trade off headlines. The other market that I do really well in is the FDV markets. So, when a token launches—
Oh, did you do a bunch for CHiP?
Yeah, CHiP. How did you do?
CHiP FDV was good. I did okay. I didn’t get as much size as I wanted over $1B because, on the day it launched, you could have gotten into over $1B fairly low, which was crazy because it had that crazy run-up.
I traded it. It was actually my best trade of the year, I’m not going to lie.
Dude, I crashed out about CHiP because the valuation makes no sense. When you actually look at the fundamentals—
You don’t look at the valuation, brother.
Brother, I—you don’t look at the valuation. It’s not—it’s—
I went into what the business model was.
No, you do not look into the business model. Absolutely not.
You never peel back the—
No. Not on day one. Absolutely not. Absolutely not.
So, I’m excited for the MegaETH FDV market, though.
Okay.
That’s the next big one because that supposedly happens in 7 days, right?
Yeah. They posted a timer, right?
Yeah, because they got to 10 apps.
Which was crazy, by the way.
They got to 10 apps, and one of the apps left. Wait, was that the number? Ten people launching, and then they’re going to—
You needed 10 apps with over 100,000 active wallets or some shit like that, or some amount of volume.
100,000 wallets? Where are those coming from?
Yeah, don’t get me wrong, bro.
100,000 wallets.
You just said it yourself: don’t pull back the curtain, right? That’s crazy. 100,000 wallets. Give me a break.
But then one of them shut down, so I was like, “Okay, is this still launching?” The FDV markets right now are over $1.2B at 70%, over $1.4B at 65%, and $1.6B at—
Wait, wait. Run through it one more time.
Over $1.6B is at 48%. Over $1.4B is at 65%, $1.2B at 70%, and $2B at 29%. The actual market on Hyperliquid right now is $1.8B. It touched—
$2B feels reasonable. I’m not going to lie.
I don’t agree. I actually think it goes much lower.
Much lower? What was the last round at? What did they raise at? I’d have to check.
I don’t know, but $1.8B—what was Monad at pre-TGE?
Yeah, on Hyperliquid.
Uh-oh. Pre-TGE, Monad was still low. Like—
Mine’s at $3B.
$3B. Yeah, yeah. I was going to say I don’t think it’s that low. That’s why I said $2B feels reasonable.
No, Monad’s not at $3B. 0.3.
Is that $300M?
No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. Three. Three. 100% three.
Is it? This thing’s trading at 0.3. I’ve got to double-check because I—
No, I’m almost positive. Yeah, $3.1B FDV. Yeah, yeah. Hell yeah.
Okay, okay, okay, okay.
Hell yeah.
That’s pretty good.
That’s pretty good. So, maybe you get over $2B, but you have to think, bro, the average user has been sitting and waiting for this TGE for so long.
Fair. Fair.
Everybody has—what? How do unlocks work on this?
20%. They get 20% day one.
And what are the rest?
I think it’s all KPI-driven.
What percent do they unlock? 10%?
20% is unlocked.
20% of what? And it’s all unlocked day one?
I believe 20% of 20%.
Yeah, I think so. I have to double-check a couple points of it. But all these people who got into the round are going to want out, right?
Yeah. Which is a matter of how much they can stomach sitting for so long. They’re out. No, you’re out. You’re totally out.
So, I’m like, under $1.8B at $0.66 on the no, and it’s at $1.8B right now. That feels like a decent play. The benefit with these FDV markets is that they close at 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time the following day, so you can basically just watch the market.
Oh, okay. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
You know when it ends. On the day, you can watch it. These odds move like crazy. They move like crazy. So, I’m like, “Yeah, I would much rather watch it, not even take a position until we see where the price is, and then trade off of that.”
Yeah, it’s just tough because you never know how willing these people are to commit financial crimes, you know?
10,000%, bro. I mean—
It’s tough. How do you gauge how willing they are to commit crime? It’s tough.
If a US soldier is willing to bet on his success capturing Nicolás Maduro, what are they going to do with the market?
By the way, Pete Rose should be in the Hall of Fame.
10,000%. What are we talking about? There’s a total distinction that has to be made here between betting against your team and betting for your team. They’re fundamentally very—
Capture him, bro.
They’re very different actions.
There’s a difference between Terry Rozier and Pete Rose.
I agree. One is anti-patriotic, and you can argue the other is maximally patriotic. This man wasn’t saying he wasn’t going to capture him or that they were going to fail the mission. He was saying, “We’re going to go in there and take names.”
If anything, he was working harder, right? One is sabotaging, and the other is—you have more on the line. It’s not just your life; it’s your inheritance.
I mean, bro, how much do these guys make? Making $400K—come on, man.
Yeah, I wonder what they do make.
I bet, dude, this guy was a master sergeant in the Navy SEALs or whatever it is. I bet he made some decent bread.
Navy SEAL master sergeant? Did you make that up, or is that a real title?
That was his actual title.
Salary. Skin in the game.
You make $90K a year, brother.
Yeah, so he was a master sergeant because I posted a short email.
A master sergeant makes $90K a year? That doesn't sound right.
It was a master sergeant. I don't know. That's the title they had in the article for this guy, so I was like, “Okay, cool.” They get good benefits.
They do get good benefits, and they get the—what do you call it—the pension?
Yeah. You have a government pension for life.
Yeah.
So you're going to make $90K for the rest of your life after doing, what is it, 4 years, 8 years?
I would have done that, too. Wait, did you make money on CHiP or no?
I didn't trade it.
You didn't trade it?
I didn't trade it.
No, I traded a tiny bit. I didn't trade the coin. I traded a little bit of the FDV market.
Yeah, yeah.
You made a little bit, you said?
Yeah. It was because, bro, going in at around 2:33 p.m., you see the chart and have a much better gauge of where price action is going. You can watch the majors, and the majors still dictate some of these moves. Bitcoin was grinding up, and CHiP was where I liked it. I was like, “It's going to at least hold here.” So I think I had around a 27% gain on it. It wasn't crazy, but I was happy with it.
It's quick, too, right?
That's what I'm saying. In an hour and a half, you could have gotten filled on a decent bag—not $100K, but enough for me to be like, “Yeah, for an hour and a half of work, that's great.”
Word. What else do you like on Polymarket right now?
So, like I said, I like those meeting markets for this weekend. I think those are actually decent. The diplomatic meeting on April 26 is at 74% no, which is by Sunday. You have April 27, which is Monday, at 62% no. You can basically just watch the headlines and figure this out. It seems like Iran's not going to meet until next week.
Hey, what do you think your biggest learning was from the trading challenge?
Size early, then size slow. That trading challenge—we ran $100 to around $1,500, and then I just got distracted. But the biggest thing there was that when you start with a low balance, you have to size aggressively because you don't have enough capital.
It's tough. Yeah.
It makes you trade worse. You trade worse.
Yeah, and you have to take really aggressive swings.
You do have to take aggressive swings, which makes you do some crazy stuff because you're like, “I need to increase this so that my downside risk is much lower.”
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
But then you get to a certain point where it's like, “Okay, now we can just stack base hits, and we don't have to worry about the downside.” Short-stack poker type.
Yeah, I was about to read that aloud.
Short stack. Some people are good at it. Some people are really good at short-stack poker, but I'm not.
Yeah.
Well, it's boring. It's boring. I want to gamble.
I want to hammer it, dude. My biggest issue is I like to click buttons too much. I know that's my biggest issue. I'm so self-aware that, even right now in this choppy market, I've moved so much money out of places where it's easy for me to click and spend money. I always reset trading balances because I'm like, “I'm just going to burn this.” So I'll put $1,000 on Hyperliquid and see what we can run it up to, or zero it out. That feels way better.
You're a big trader. You love a good trading challenge.
Because it just keeps you sane. That's the thing. I enjoy doing it on stream. I have a brokerage account, and I put $1,000 in it that I've been trading on stream.
Yeah, that's nice.
Purely because the audience can relate to it, too. It's not as fun if I go in there with $100K and take much bigger positions, versus talking through a lot of the stuff and my thesis on a smaller bankroll. Your thesis has to make sense, versus being able to just gamble.
It's a good take. During all this—or maybe outside the trading challenge—what is your best trade? Maybe not even just P&L. It can be P&L if you want, but just your sickest trade.
Oh, I mean, Robinhood at $30.
Polymarket, that too. But on Polymarket—
Oh, my best Polymarket trade was a MrBeast TeamWater market. That was how I first found Polymarket.
It was, “Will MrBeast raise $3 million for TeamWater?”
You said obviously yes, right?
I took yes, but there were 7 days when he hadn't raised more than $100 a day. During those days, I looked into his project history and his projects. He had done another one, and I researched when the majority of the investments came in. It was always in the last 72 hours. So I was like, “Okay, he's going to hit this. He's never missed one of these.” I was like, “Yeah, let's rip this.” It was a $67K gain on that, using only around $1,000. I was like, “Okay, this is a really good return,” because everyone was saying he wasn't going to do it.
I traded the Lord Miles Desert Fast[?].
That—
That was the first time I realized that with Polymarket, you can track wallets really easily. I was able to exit when he started self-trading because we're crypto-native—we understand what to look for and are willing to do the work.
Then I talked to this guy, Euan. Have you ever—do you know who Euan is?
Yeah, I think so.
Euan, I believe? I interviewed him. He's one of my favorite guys I've ever talked to because of the way he trades.
Yeah, EUM. That's what it is.
Okay. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. He is my—
Yeah, Unicar is the guy's name.
Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. I do, I do.
When I—
I actually like this guy, dude. He's amazing at wallet tracking. That's all he does. He doesn't trade any position unless he's going down the blockchain for it. And he's not crypto-native.
That's why I was really interested when I heard his story. He turned $15K into $800K, 100% off wallet tracking.
$15K to $800K, you said?
$15K to $800K.
To $800K.
Yeah.
Jesus.
And it's 100% off wallet tracking. I was like, “Okay, this is really interesting.” That's why this stuff makes way more sense to me when I look into it. It's a true crypto-native product where you have the ability to see who your counterparty is. Unlike a lot of this stuff, where you have to put in a little more effort, you can quite literally see the leaderboard of who's on the other side. There are a bunch of good apps out now where you can visualize that data. If you want to get into prediction markets, you should be using that information to find edges.
$15K to $800K is gross.
Disgusting. Just absolutely disgusting.
Damn.
Yeah, dude. There are people like that. And like I said, he comes from sports gambling and horse racing, so he's never traded crypto before. He's purely about bankroll management and wallet tracking. I'm like, “This is really interesting.”
I don't do a lot of wallet tracking, honestly. There was an era of a lot of meme coins where I was kind of hyped about it, but I never got that good at it. It's very tedious, and a lot of it is just dead ends.
A ton of dead ends. When you find something, bro—he found this one wallet, and what was wicked interesting about it was that he went down this rabbit hole and found a wallet that got funded by an ENS. The ENS was a government official's name.
Whoa.
They were so secretive about it. It was like 6 layers of obfuscation. They tried to put it through a tumbler. He matched the tumbler, where this amount went in and the exact same amount came out 2 hours later. That was what funded the Polymarket account.
And then, is there a climax where he copy-traded him, or—
He copy-traded him. I think that was his biggest win. I think he made around $40K or $50K off one trade.
Whoa.
Yeah, dude got it. When he talked about that, I was like, “Okay.”
What was the market? Do you remember, or no?
I don't remember the exact market. I want to say—
Probably some war-related [censored]. Gotta be, right?
Yeah, I think it was probably some war-related [censored].
It always is. It's always some war-related [censored], bro.
But I have it on YouTube. I could go into it. He talks about the whole trade, and it's not a long interview. I was doing these 20-minute interviews with really good traders. He's on there. I talked to PMT and a couple of these other guys.
When I talked to him—
Yeah, dude. I just looked it up. This video with him is 20 minutes long.
Sick.
He talks about the trade, and it was purely copy-trading. Exactly 20 minutes. It's my most-viewed interview. This is the one with him. I'm probably going to go back and rewatch it because I forget a lot of the context, but I'm like, “This dude got it.” When he broke it all down, I was like, “Okay, this is why it's interesting to have stuff on-chain.”
Real quick, who do you think wins the NBA championship?
I mean, it's obviously the under—
I bought T-Wolves at 1.4 cents.
That's what I did for March Madness, and I liked that I bought Kansas, Arkansas, and a couple others. I only bought the T-Wolves, and I sold them a couple times.
I mean, the T-Wolves could win. I don't know. Boston—what's Boston?
Boston's at 12%.
Boston could win. I mean, bro, I'm a Celtics fan. I love it. I'm a Celtics and UConn fan, bro. Boston could win. Detroit absolutely cannot win. No shot.
No, bro. Houston's terrible. The Nuggets are terrible.
The thing is, I think the Spurs are just too young.
The Hawks stink. The Hawks stink. The Knicks stink. Wemby is hurt.
That's the issue. I'm excited for Castle's development on the Spurs because they have the right pieces.
Those dudes have the pieces, bro. OKC stinks. The Knicks stink. The Hawks stink. The issue is, bro, you got free-throw merchants.
The Cavs stink.
The free-throw merchants are crazy, bro. The Cavs are playing Toronto. They stink.
The Raptors are—
Everybody stinks. Detroit stinks. No way Detroit wins. Detroit stinks, too.
Zero percent chance.
Who's the second-highest?
The Spurs, at 13%.
Philly is pretty good.
I don't know, bro. I like Philly.
Philly's pretty good, bro.
I think everyone else stinks.
At 1%?
Philly's pretty good. They can't win, though, because Embiid doesn't play, and they stink. But Philly's pretty good. They stink.
There are 16,000 shares right now for $100.
Wow. Philly stinks, but I like them. And OKC is just unbelievable. Unbelievable.
I hate Shai's game, bro. I hate—
The Suns might not come within 10 points the whole season. Are you going to trade SpaceX on Polymarket?
I don't know. The toughest part with those is that they have a market for closing. What does it close at on day one?
That's tough.
It's 50% that it'll be over $2 trillion.
That's a tough market. I'm not going to lie.
That is a tough market, dude.
I like the Acquired Cursor market. I think they do acquire Cursor.
Oh, it's based on some revenue numbers that have to be hit.
Yeah, revenue numbers. And if they don't, they have to pay a $10 billion fee. Cursor does.
No, SpaceX does too. Cursor—
Oh, wow. That's a sick finesse. Keep running your business with a $10 billion fee.
That's what I'm saying. But at the same time, bro, what's $10 billion to an AI company? They spend more than that.
They spend more than that.
The average $200 user on Claude costs $2,000.
That's why they nuked my OpenClaw, right?
They nuked the $20 user. Yeah. I'm actually bearish on a lot of the AI companies when they IPO. There's not enough liquidity in the market. When Anthropic and OpenAI both IPO with SpaceX, you have 3 companies IPOing over $1 trillion. What are we doing here? What are we doing here?
Up only until then, though.
10,000%. Up only until then.
Okay.
Sorry, go ahead.
I was going to say, up only until then. I want to be short. Everything in my brain tells me to be short. Everything. The hardest part is that every time I go short, I get stopped out because the market continues to grind higher. The market can stay irrational longer than I can stay liquid, and I hate to admit it.
Every single time, right?
Every time. It never fails. It's a 100% hit rate.
Okay, word. As a sign-off, when you come on, give me some trade ideas. Give me some tickers, some trade ideas, some things to watch. You gave me a couple, but just reiterate and add anything if you want to add.
Yeah. For trade ideas, I think IREN and TeraWulf are the 2 that I really like.
Cooking.
IREN and TeraWulf are the 2 that I really, really like. I think if you want to follow the Leopold Aschenbrenner playbook, Bloom Energy—
Dude, he's hands down one of the best investors of all time. He just has it. I read his entire 165-page thesis. The whole thing.
Do I need to read that?
Yes.
Really, dude? How long did it take?
Longer than I want to admit. It's not a fun read.
It's like a 10-hour type of thing.
Yeah, it's slow. It's a lot of math and a lot of numbers, but when you read it, it's like—when I got to the end, I was like, “Oh, this is situational awareness. This is what this is.”
Yeah, that's his hedge fund. The thing is, he outlined the best trade you could possibly make for the next 5 years.
It's energy.
It's energy. Yeah, energy and GPUs. That's it. I see a lot of people saying, “Yeah, get AI to read it.” It doesn't give you the full version.
Yeah. It gives you a third-grade-level version, but I like those. And then PWR and ETN—PWR and ETN. They're construction companies. I really like those because that's not even in his thesis, but it's still derived from the same general idea.
Yeah.
Yeah, because they're AI-proof. It doesn't matter who wins, and even if they go down quantum, they're still the best one. I'm like, these are such no-brainers, in my opinion.
And then Apple—Apple right now is my second-biggest long position besides Robinhood stock.
Damn. Well, you have calls or what do you have?
I have calls, shares, and I'm long Hyperliquid. I'm long across the board on Apple.
Yeah.
Okay.
I'm very long Apple because the more I look into Apple, the more I'm like, this makes sense.
And then, if you want an alternative play for the oil bet, DHT and FRO are the 2 tickers I like. They're both oil shipping companies. They own what's called mega tankers, the biggest ones. They were charging half a million dollars a day to transport oil at the peak of the Strait of Hormuz closure.
Wow.
That's 200% higher than the last time there was a closure or delay. If you look at when that happened, it was late March, which falls into Q1 earnings. When their earnings come out, the last 14 days of March should shatter their earnings expectations because nobody was pricing it in.
Nobody was pricing it in. Damn.
Yeah. I like a lot of this alternative stuff. I think a little bit outside of the box.
That was interesting. What ticker was that? One more time.
DHT and FRO. FRO is Frontline, and DHT is DHT Holdings.
Sick. I'm going to go look at that.
Yeah, I like those a lot. DHT is only at $18, and I think FRO is at around $20-something. Even with oil going down, FRO was at $35.
But even with oil going down, these are literally just trading flat right now. That was even when oil was over $100, closer to $105.
Damn. Bet. I'm going to go look at that.
Chat, I'll get you a list of the tickers. Yeah, I'll get you a list of all the tickers. Dude, thanks for coming on.
Easy pressure, man. Enjoy the farm, dudes. By the way, last thing before you leave: the Jets' draft is just tough.
Bro, what the fuck are we doing?
It's tough. At least they got back and drafted a receiver, but, man, it's just tough. It's tough.
Every year I have such high hopes, dude. I had the jersey with his name on the back.
I know. I'm looking out. I don't want to say anything. It's just tough. It's tough.
There's never been a worse situation than being a Jets fan. You stare at Leman, and you just don't pick him. It's tough.
You had him on the board. You had—
You had him on the board.
You had him on the board. They got back in and picked a receiver, so—
Listen, it is what it is. It is what it is.
It is what it is. And we're not Rams fans, is what I'll say.
No, exactly. Cool.
Thank God. We'll talk.
Thanks, brother. Have a good one. Peace.
He actually had some good tickers for us. I'm not going to lie. What broker does he use? I think Robinhood. He's always on Robinhood. Robinhood, how do you feel about long Apple? I don't hate it. I don't hate it. That was actually fire. I like that a lot.