Stablecoin proliferation is shifting toward corporate treasury, as banks and multinationals may issue white-label coins to capture float.CLARITY’s 49–50 failure hit Coinbase roughly 10% and Circle 12%, while the SEC’s five-year exemption may accelerate tokenized-securities innovation but remains reversible.Arc’s more than 190 partners showed Circle’s reach, but its memecoin-heavy debut obscured a payments strategy designed to offset lower rates.

Yan Liberman

Yan sees Bitcoin reaching the high $90,000s before materially easier liquidity, with only 10–15 investable tokens.His six-token book favors uncrowded productive assets: Grass has roughly $70 million expected revenue and $40 million indicated operating profit against about $330 million FDV.Grass’s October unlocks and AERO’s second-half-of-September expansion are catalysts, but demand, emissions and cross-asset opportunity cost remain unresolved.

庄明浩 × Raymond

基金到期与退出受阻催生一级半市场，私下交易形成介于融资与上市之间的第三种价格，字节等公司按年回购员工期权。SpaceX通过平台和多层SPV将门槛拆至5000美元，但叙事驱动、代币化与中国资金参与仍有法律灰区；AI、国防和芯片共识升温，字节上市与留言板成交仍待验证。

Raymond × 庄明浩

退出受阻将一级半市场从水下交易逼成有买卖双方、价格和中间方的准市场，36氪留言板五年5000多条信息则显示标的从互联网消费轮转向Web3、硬科技、AI、机器人与商业航天。SpaceX借多层SPV和Web3基础设施将参与门槛降至5000美元，但中国人投资美国AI公司的监管限制、链条断裂风险，以及字节短期是否上市，仍是关键变量。

Jason Yanowitz × Santiago Roel Santos

Blockworks logged more sales calls than in any recent period, while inbound leads rose as fintechs and brokerages rolled out crypto.CLARITY remains uncertain; SEC and CFTC rulemaking could catalyze innovation, but unclear token value accrual and falling CEX volume leave institutional adoption unresolved.

Crypto funds moving into robotics and hardware may be an adverse-selection trap as LPs question mandate creep and post-2021 returns converge with regular venture.Cloudflare’s guardrailed, chain-agnostic wallets could make identity and authorization a value layer, while Circle’s 7% revenue growth, falling USDC supply, 62% distribution share, and November’s Western Union bet leave monetization unresolved.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg × Santiago Santos

Santiago Santos is winding down Inversion’s crypto thesis after finding Remitly and Wise “not making money” with no pricing power, while stablecoins remain a real dollar-rail use case.The pivot favors mandated, recurring cash flow such as critical-power servicing, where fragmented markets, emergency pricing and AI-enabled efficiency may support returns, while Inversion’s holdco structure protects judgment and capital discipline.

Jason Yanowitz × Santiago Roel Santos

After eight months across 20-plus sectors, Santos says Inversion’s crypto-embedding thesis failed to clear the return hurdle, shifting focus to quality, cash-flowing businesses.On-chain B2B borrowing costs 8–12%, while crypto FX quotes sit 20–50 basis points above mid-market; Robinhood Chain’s more than $500 million in Uniswap volume and roughly 150,000 new active wallets show verticalization, though P&L value remains disputed.

Jason Yanowitz × Santiago Roel Santos

Crypto venture is splitting into a weak early-stage market and improving later-stage payments, stablecoin, tokenized-asset and M&A activity.Stablecoin transfer volume remains distorted by bots, but adjusted metrics, card swipes and about 30 public-company implementations offer stronger adoption evidence.Kalshi’s reported $40B raise remains unconfirmed as fee compression looms, while institutional clearing and block trades could expand prediction markets.

Avichal Garg × Jason Yanowitz

AI’s dominance makes early-stage entry difficult, pushing Electric Capital toward cold spots such as crypto.Certora’s formal verification could become critical as AI-powered attacks target DeFi securing billions.Stablecoin rails may let 5-6 billion people with limited U.S. market access pay higher P/E multiples for on-chain cash flows, though token re-rating depends on durable revenue and buybacks.