Why Natural Gas Will Be AI’s Next Great Shortage
Patrick O'ShaughnessyMatthew Smith
Matthew Smith’s model points to US natural-gas storage falling below all historical levels by 2029 as contracted LNG and AI compute outstrip deliverability, with electricity prices bearing the impact in 2028-2030.The market remains priced near $3.50-3.60, while Expand Energy and Range offer leverage to a potential physical-gas scramble; processing, pipelines, nuclear timelines, and consumer costs remain key risks.
Dan Dreyfus: The Next AI Bottleneck is Copper
AI, reshoring, defense, and electrification are colliding with decades of infrastructure underinvestment, turning critical minerals into a supply shock against surging demand.China’s export restrictions exposed near-term shutdown risk, while Washington’s equity, permitting, and floor-price offtake package could finance new mines; copper supply may still lag enough for prices to double.
Vol.218 宏观漫谈105｜从AI资本市场热潮到挑战石油美元体系，历史几乎每次都一样（5.24录制）
两轮risk off后，资金重新涌入中美最拥挤的AI与机器人交易，英伟达市值升至5.5万亿美元。美国增长预期约一半建立在大型公司AI Capex持续增加之上，但低成本旧产能、企业FOMO与囤货放大了一季度表现。亚马逊可能已进入Capex超过自由现金流阶段，微软等或于明年一至二季度跟随，而token收入尚未证明商业闭环。
Sticky Inflation + Energy Prices: End of the Rally or Pause?
Global crude could hit operational tank bottoms by September: inelastic demand and an 8mbd supply loss could keep oil above $100, though Avi says $200 would force resolution within two months.A 50% chance of a December rate hike and Kevin Warsh’s possible real-time CPI rebase create an underpriced catalyst for equities and an even harsher risk for crypto, while Jonah argues AI’s marginal dollar remains far from exhausted.
How To Position During an Oil Price Shock
Oil's $120 spike appears driven by consensus short covering, while force majeure leaves physical traders with naked financial hedges and July implied daily volatility near $6.50 versus $1 normal.A 90% chance of resolution within weeks points to Saudi supply and forced re-hedging as downside catalysts, while prolonged Hormuz closure remains the 10% stagflation risk behind six-month gold calls.
Vol.211 宏观漫谈103｜对比伊拉克战争，美以伊战事的底层逻辑变了（3.26录制）
美以伊目标缺乏交集，短期停火困难，战争已引发所有资产齐跌、仅美元上涨的极端risk off，并将市场推向滞胀交易。若伊朗政权被颠覆，中国将面临石油结算、能源定价与西部安全三重压力；未来5—10年能源多元化、生物制造和核能力重估值得跟踪。
市场概述2026年3月24日
伊朗和谈行情缺乏物流验证：只要石油尚未大规模通过霍尔木兹海峡，局势仍有变数。高盛路径显示，时间加权油价每升10%将使PCE升0.04、GDP降0.1，base case或削减年内增长0.2–0.3个百分点，危机即刻停止也无法避免损害。市场或先经历油价恐慌与衰退交易，随后迎来买债窗口；极端情形是危机拖过六月、加权油价超150并触发美国衰退。
市场概述2026年3月17日
霍尔木兹海峡断航令市场面临约16M/天净缺口，GS base case为持续21天并消耗全球商业库存约一半，而油价尚未定价两三个月的中断。油价传导至核心通胀有限且失业走弱可能抵消冲击，CTA卖压本周或见顶；需监测地缘谈判进展、负gamma加速风险及private credit对AI capex的拖累。
Everything You Need to Know About Oil
The Hormuz shock showed that oil supply can be closed financially through insurance even when no tanker is attacked, while gamma-driven selling helped reverse a historic spike.Jonah sees $88 oil as mostly geopolitical premium against a potential glut and prefers expressions with limited negative convexity; the G7’s 400M cumulative SPR pledge and Iran’s unchanged China exports are key catalysts.
The World's Greatest Energy Trader on Markets, China, and AI
Patrick O'ShaughnessyJohn Arnold
China’s NIO built a robotic factory from shovel to first car in 17 months, with suppliers within 200 miles, highlighting a speed and supply-chain advantage over aging US plants.US energy demand is clear through 2030 but permitting is the bottleneck; delivered solar PPAs remain 50%+ above 2020 lows, while advanced geothermal is Arnold’s five-year call.