The College Student Who Solved Polymarket - BrokieTrades
BrokieTrades’ first edge is structural: Polymarket’s “neg risk” lets him convert one outcome’s No shares into Yes shares across every mutually exclusive alternative. He used it on J.D. Vance while also holding Vance Yes shares, making some displayed P&L figures misleading; bots arbitrage the same identity when equivalent prices diverge. “Sometimes you can get shares for cheaper.”
His geopolitical trading process rests on judging incentives and source quality, not merely reacting fastest to headlines. When Ali Khamenei’s removal traded near 50¢, BrokieTrades bought Yes because Israeli reporting described a targeted strike while traders trusted Iranian state media. Niche university and nonprofit sources gave him insight into Mojtaba Khamenei when he was priced around 5–15¢, before Iranian clerics voted for him as leader. The claimed edge: “People don’t know which media sources to trust.”
BrokieTrades believes Mojtaba Khamenei is dead, yet recognizes that being right about reality may not produce a winning contract. His theory is that the IRGC benefits from naming an already-dead leader because it concentrates power and avoids internal conflict, while the official survival story sounds “so far-fetched.” He owns Yes on Mojtaba being out by year-end but worries the IRGC can preserve the deception: “They have no incentive to say Mojtaba is dead.”
His oil book separates short-term escalation from the longer-term path: long oil over the next three days, but short over roughly six months through Hyperliquid, particularly Brent. He assigns about a 30% chance to near-term escalation—and admits he cannot specifically justify that number—while putting the probability of the war resolving within six months above 80%. He thinks Hyperliquid funding is mispriced enough that a patient short can work without excessive carrying cost.
The hardest variable is timing, which makes perpetuals preferable when direction is clearer than the resolution date. He lost a Polymarket bet on a U.S.–Venezuela operation because he chose late 2025 and says it happened on January 3, 2026; an unexpected Iran ceasefire also hurt his long-oil positioning. The host’s pushback is material: Hormuz disruption, Russian refinery damage, and supply-chain aftereffects make an oil short harder to hold beyond the first sharp down candle.
His repeatable rule is to demand a substantial, explainable edge, understand the counterparty, and accept inactivity as a position. He says the edge should be more than 20–30%, estimates only 5–10% of strong prediction-market traders profit in other vehicles, sees retail geopolitical knowledge as complementary to energy funds’ supply-and-demand expertise, and conducts about half his Polymarket work through conversations with opposing traders. “If you can’t justify why it’s not priced in, then you should not make the trade.”
On 2028, BrokieTrades says Rubio probably will not run because he prefers remaining Secretary of State and likely would lose. The host frames Rubio as a potential 2032 candidate; BrokieTrades responds that “the 2020 election is cooked,” though the transcript’s year is ambiguous in context. He thinks AOC is less likely than Gavin Newsom, but says a clearly ascendant AOC could make Rubio more likely to run. He avoids trading every Trump remark because “Trump says a different thing every day”; concrete announcements such as an agreed ceasefire are much clearer signals.
BrokieTrades sees his strategy’s present ceiling at “a few million a year,” constrained by liquidity, frequency, and market breadth. Reaching it would require expanding beyond geopolitics, staying “much more online,” and deploying more bots, with Polymarket perpetuals potentially widening the opportunity set. His pride is less one spectacular score than accumulating many small, formerly few-thousand-dollar wins before recently sizing up.
1. Neg risk turns market plumbing into tradeable edge
BrokieTrades explains that when A, B, and C exhaust every possible outcome, owning No on B is economically equivalent to owning Yes on both A and C. Polymarket’s neg-risk mechanism permits that conversion directly.
Applied to the J.D. Vance brackets, he neg-risked Vance No shares into Yes shares elsewhere while retaining separate Vance Yes exposure. That makes the account’s displayed bracket-level P&L “actually, like, incorrect,” even though the underlying positions remain real.
The soccer analogy carries the logic: team A wins, team B wins, or the match draws within 90 minutes. Because “one of those three outcomes will occur,” bots arbitrage any gap between one outcome’s No price and the summed Yes prices of all alternatives.
2. Geopolitical edge comes from incentives behind the information
After moving from OpenSea to meme coins and then prediction markets roughly two years ago, BrokieTrades says he traded essentially every Polymarket category. Since February 28, however, geopolitics has dominated because that is where he sees unusual informational edge.
His Ali Khamenei trade began around 50¢ after the United States commenced its military operation against Iran. While many traders trusted Iranian state media, Israeli coverage described a targeted strike and said Khamenei was dead; BrokieTrades bought Yes because he believed that reporting.
The host challenges source reliability, noting that Channel 12 had falsely reported numerous developments and moved markets both ways. BrokieTrades concedes that attribution is “extremely hard” and instead emphasizes incentives plus small university or nonprofit sources that gave him insight into Mojtaba Khamenei when he traded around 5–15¢. Iranian clerics later voted for Mojtaba, who ultimately became leader.
On Mojtaba’s status, his stated view is “I think he’s dead.” The mechanism matters more than the claim: an already-dead leader could give IRGC officials greater personal power and reduce internal conflict, while the story that Mojtaba left the main compound, entered another part of it, and survived the strike with only an injured or destroyed arm seems “so far-fetched” to him.
3. Being right is insufficient when timing and resolution diverge
BrokieTrades holds Yes on Mojtaba being out by year-end, but sees a contract risk: the IRGC could keep claiming he is alive. He agrees with the host’s framing that the IRGC has no incentive to disclose his death, particularly because it would also expose its lie.
That distinction drives his instrument choice. Polymarket contracts terminate on fixed dates and resolve to 0, 1, or sometimes 50%, depending on the market rules; perpetuals let him express direction without having to predict exactly when the catalyst arrives.
His cleanest cautionary example is a U.S.–Venezuela operation bet placed for late 2025 that, by his account, occurred on January 3, 2026. “Time frames are harder to predict” than the event itself, so shorter-term conviction may fit Polymarket while looser directional conviction may fit perpetuals.
4. The oil book deliberately holds opposing horizons
Over the next three days, BrokieTrades is “very long oil” because he sees about a 30% chance of escalation. When pressed on that exact figure, his honest answer is that he cannot put a specific justification behind it and “just don’t know”—a useful admission given his broader insistence on demanding substantial mispricing.
Over six months, he is short oil on Hyperliquid, particularly Brent, because he puts the war’s chance of resolution above 80%. His thesis is that the funding mechanism does not charge shorts enough for waiting, making the perpetual one of the better instruments for expressing lower eventual oil prices.
His imagined escalation is a very short U.S. strike that decapitates a lot of the IRGC and damages oil, energy, and power infrastructure, forcing Iran toward negotiations over highly enriched uranium. He presents this as a forecast, not certainty.
The host’s pushback is material: even after peace headlines crater oil, three months of Strait of Hormuz closure, accounting for more than 20% of supply, plus attacks on Russian oil fields and refineries could create unknowable supply-chain damage. That uncertainty is why the host prefers long Bitcoin to holding an oil short beyond the first red leveraged candle.
5. Durable profitability requires an explainable counterparty error
BrokieTrades’ largest recent mistake was staying long oil into an unexpected ceasefire. He had interpreted Axios as effectively Trump’s messaging: Iran was allegedly blocking a deal, Trump was the peace-seeking party, and the blame lay with Iran. That appeared to justify further operations, so he remains confused about why the ceasefire occurred, speculating about American public pressure or oil prices without claiming an answer.
He notes that the Strait remains closed and that a no-deal outcome with no reopening could still push oil higher. Several competing factors therefore remain unresolved.
His retail-edge framing is deliberately asymmetric: energy hedge funds understand supply, demand, and related effects better, while geopolitically focused individuals may understand the conflict better. The opportunity lies in “the inverse of what the hedge funds understand,” not in beating institutions at their own specialty.
Roughly half his Polymarket process involves other traders. Speaking directly with the opposing side reveals both the market’s implicit argument and whether counterparties are “complete idiots”; oil remains mostly solitary because he knows few prediction-market traders using the futures.
After initially suggesting that perhaps a 130 IQ is required to go beyond buying the S&P, he later revises that to “maybe 120-plus.” The more defensible rule comes later: require a substantial edge—more than 20–30%, in his wording—know why consensus is wrong, and remember that “not taking a trade is a trade basically.”
Verification Notes
The transcript says “the 2020 election is cooked” in response to a question about the 2028 election; this year is preserved rather than normalized.
Full transcript
Yo, yo, yo. Hello, hello. How are you? I’m good, Mr. Brokie. This PFP might get me banned on Twitch. I hope not.
Oh, well, it’s just a joke. I’m not the real Andrew Tate. There we go.
Nor do I endorse him. Well, I mean, I endorse some things. You know.
I won’t hold you to that in either direction. No, I agree with him on some things and disagree on others. I don’t know. We can skip the Tate topic.
It’s an absolute pleasure to have you here.
Sick P&L, man. Thank you. Thank you.
So, I just want to clarify a few things. There’s this concept on Polymarket called neg risk. Basically, you can have outcome A, outcome B, outcome C—you know, if you buy no shares of outcome A, you can convert those no shares of outcome A into yes shares of outcomes B and C, assuming that it’s guaranteed that A, B, or C will occur.
Because of this, I essentially neg-risked the no shares of J.D. Vance into all of the other brackets. I also have yes shares on J.D. Vance, so it’s a little bit confusing, and this is sort of a Polymarket bug. Regardless, most of the P&Ls on those brackets are actually incorrect.
Wait. Can you back up and explain Polymarket neg risk? I’ve never heard that explained before.
Okay. Essentially, let’s say there’s a sports event, and it’s soccer, where you can tie in the first 90 minutes. One of those 3 outcomes will occur.
If you have no shares on Team B winning, it’s the same as having the same amount of yes shares on Team A winning or the match tying, because mathematically there are only 3 options. The prices will be the same.
You can go on any Polymarket market, and if you add up all the odds of yes on all the other brackets, they will add up to the price of no on one of the other brackets. It’s a fun thing, and bots actually arbitrage using this.
Whoa. I’ve never thought about that. How often are you thinking about this and using it?
I think it’s very strategic because sometimes you can get shares for cheaper, and obviously you can use these market mechanics to make more money.
Whoa. Thank you for the explanation. Let me back up and give me an introduction. Who are you, for as much as you want to share, and what is your trading experience and lore?
I guess my first experience in crypto was not on prediction markets. It was actually OpenSea. I know you were just looking at that. I bought into some of those at the higher prices.
From there, I went into meme coins, and now, recently—I went into prediction markets about 2 years ago. I’m primarily trading prediction markets. I think I’ve traded literally every category of market on Polymarket.
I think I’ve made money on all of them, and I always look for an edge. I use a lot of rational common sense, although that’s a little bit rude to people who are my counterparties.
[laughter]
I do a lot of stats, but more recently, since February 28, I’m primarily trading geopolitics because I have a lot of insights there.
On February 28, obviously, we know the United States commenced the military operation against Iran. In those markets, Khamenei ultimately met his demise, but in the meantime, many people had not priced this in.
The odds of Ali Khamenei being out—the father, with the son obviously being Mojtaba—people hadn’t priced this in. The market was roughly at 50¢ by the time I had woken up, and I bought a lot of yes shares. He turned out to die.
I think people were trusting Iranian state media a lot in that scenario. I’m just giving an example of a trade and how I use this edge. People trusted Iranian state media a lot rather than looking at Israeli media. Israeli media was saying that this was a targeted strike and that he was definitely dead.
I think this was my edge. People in the West don’t really understand that. People don’t know which media sources to trust. I would also say that people in the West don’t understand Islam, and as a result, some of these terrorist organizations don’t make the right trades because of that.
Tell me what media outlets you should trust. How do you know who to trust and who not to trust?
Since February 28, all we’ve covered is geopolitics as well, and the infamous Israeli news network Channel 12 has falsely reported about 10 different things. Markets have ripped in both directions, and that’s why I don’t like trading them.
It’s extremely hard, as you said. I think you also have to think a lot about incentives when you’re going through these problems.
There are some niche news networks that probably have very few readers, viewers, or listeners, but they have extremely good insights. Traditionally, these are either universities or nonprofits. I don’t really want to say the names because it’s a big edge.
There are sources like this. They gave insights, for instance, into Mojtaba Khamenei becoming the leader, despite him being priced at only 5¢ to 15¢ on Polymarket, when the Iranian clerics, who are religious leaders, actually voted for him. Mojtaba ultimately became the leader.
By the way, I want to make it clear that there’s a controversy over whether Mojtaba is truly alive. I don’t know if you’ve gone over this.
Give me the breakdown and what you think.
I think he’s dead. The IRGC is incentivized to pick a dead leader. Mojtaba was already next in line, but when he died, the leaders of the IRGC would have significantly more power if they picked someone who was already dead, because there wouldn’t be as much internal conflict.
To answer the question of why they would pick someone dead, it’s because they would get much more power on an individual level.
Secondly, I think the whole story of Mojtaba’s so-called survival from the compound is far-fetched. The story is that he walked outside of the main compound, went into another part of the compound, and then walked down the stairs back to the compound. Israel’s bombs hit his father’s compound, killing his father and Mojtaba Khamenei. Thanks to Allah, only his arm was destroyed or hurt or something.
That story just seems so far-fetched. I think they have to use this religious figure to justify it. I think it’s extremely likely that Mojtaba is dead.
Is there an active market that you’re positioned in either direction on that?
I have some yes shares that he’ll be out by the end of the year.
But you’re worried that even though you know he’s dead, they could hide it because the IRGC doesn’t want to make it public. They want the power, right? Why are they going to say Mojtaba is alive if they can keep this power and maintain this sort of deception?
Exactly. The IRGC has no incentive to say Mojtaba is dead, and they will also have lied.
What do you do all day? Give me your daily routine. What are you doing all day? Are you—
Yeah, I’m a student.
You’re a student? Is this a part-time thing for you?
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
You’re at university?
I mean, no comment. Sorry. Sorry. Sorry. Sorry. You’re—
That is insane, though. You’re a student, and you’re trading prediction markets. Are you trading other markets, or are you mostly trading prediction markets?
Yeah, I’ve also been trading the oil markets on Hyperliquid, which has a very interesting mechanic because they’re tied to an oracle price.
I’m sure everyone on the stream is familiar with Hyperliquid and how you have the funding rate. This essentially pegs you to the oracle price. If people believe the oracle price is going to go down, for instance, we can all agree that the war has above an 80% chance of resolving in the next 6 months, right?
Because of that, the funding rates should, in theory, price down the market. The funding rates should make it such that shorts pay longs in the long run, because the markets will end up there eventually.
I actually think Hyperliquid’s funding rate is mispriced, such that if you open a short position for the next 6 months, you’ll make money. I think this is one of the best instruments to short oil because of this mechanic.
You are heavily priced against the war being over and that destroying oil. I don’t think the market—I think the funding rate on Hyperliquid—bounces a lot, specifically on Brent oil, which is the one I’ve been trading.
Okay. I think that you will not pay that much money to short. You will not lose that much money on funding rates. I know you mentioned trying to short or long Bitcoin. I think the Hyperliquid way is better, but I would also like to clarify something: I saw someone on your stream earlier say that they’re short oil.
I’m short oil in the long run, but I’m very long oil in the short run, over the next 3 days. I think I’m going—
Okay, what happens over the next 3 days? Escalation this weekend?
Yes, I believe so.
What are you betting on?
Let’s put it this way: I think it’s around a 30% chance. So, let’s not—
How do you arrive at that 30% chance? What are you calculating when you come to that number? It’s a specific number.
I can’t put a specific justification behind it. I just don’t know. In the past, there’s not really anything I can point to or justify.
Interesting. How are you positioned for it in the oil market? How are you positioned in prediction markets? And what’s your general read on where this is going?
I think this is one of my issues with prediction markets: I don’t necessarily always price in the news correctly, which is why I always look for a substantial edge—more than 20% to 30%. For that reason, I usually make money on most of my trades.
To answer your question, I think what Trump will do is launch a very short strike. I think it will decapitate a lot of the IRGC, and I think he will destroy a lot of the oil infrastructure and energy and power infrastructure.
I think Trump believes that doing this will bring Iran to the negotiating table in a place where it’s more willing to give up its highly enriched uranium. I would say that’s by far the biggest factor in why Trump hasn’t met or agreed to the Iranian demands.
Interesting. What do you think about trading oil on Hyperliquid versus trading some of the oil markets on Polymarket?
I think all the oil markets on Polymarket are time-constrained. They all have a resolution date, and they’ll resolve to 0%, 1%, or 50%, depending on the market rules, by whatever resolution date is specified.
Because of this, the time frames are harder to predict than what will actually happen. I saw this in my own accounts: I bet a lot on a U.S.–Venezuela operation, but I bet on late 2025, and it happened on January 3, 2026.
I think time frames are harder to predict, and for that reason, sometimes it’s better to use perpetuals. Sometimes I do have shorter-term conviction, and in that case I would use Polymarket. It really depends on the opportunity.
Interesting. Where have you been the most wrong since February 28? What markets have you gotten wrong that caused the biggest losses?
I was very long oil right when the last ceasefire occurred. I was also very long oil at the beginning of the war, and I made a lot of money.
Most recently, where I lost money since February 28 was in these oil markets and related Polymarket markets. I didn’t think a ceasefire would occur. I think the ceasefire has been rather stupid, to be frank with you.
I had listened to some analysis that said Axios, the news agency, is essentially Trump’s messaging. The messaging from Axios at the time was that Iran wasn’t agreeing to a deal, Trump was the peace guy, and it was all Iran’s fault.
That would be clear messaging for an operation. It justifies saying that Iran is trying to build a nuclear weapon, that they’re not agreeing to this peace deal, and that they’re not giving us the highly enriched uranium back. I had a lot of conviction that this would be the messaging.
I honestly don’t know why they did the ceasefire, and I’m still confused about it to this day. I think it was probably pressure from the American people, and maybe oil prices were too high for Trump.
Looking back today, the Strait is still closed. Some people speculate that maybe we end up with no deal, no nuclear deal, and no reopening of the Strait, which would also push oil higher. There are a lot of factors.
Dude, I’ve been trading oil nonstop too, and I’m kind of hooked on it. The reason I said long Bitcoin instead of short oil is that if Trump comes out and we have an actual ceasefire—or the war is over, or peace is achieved—oil is going to crater.
But there are also 3 months of closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for more than 20% of supply. I don’t know how to account for the long-term impacts on oil supply chains. There’s also everything happening in Russia: oil fields and refineries are getting blown up.
I have no concept of how to account for the long-term effects of that. So, after oil shorts beyond that first red leveraged candle, I don’t know what to do with it.
Do you want to hear something interesting?
Yes, please.
I’m just thinking I should say this. I know that hedge funds are the opposite of you. They don’t know how to trade this conflict. They don’t know what’s going on.
But what do these hedge funds that trade energy understand? They understand supply and demand, obviously. They understand all of these other effects, and I think that’s what they’re good at.
What they’re not good at—and where we can get an edge as retail, or I don’t know if I’m retail, I don’t know what I am, but whatever I’m classified as—is geopolitics.
I think that’s the inverse of what the hedge funds understand, which is quite fascinating and is where we gain an edge.
Did you watch the whole stream today?
I watched some of it.
Where does retail edge exist in 2026?
If you’re really, really smart, you can find it everywhere. If you’re average IQ, just buy the S&P.
What level of intelligence do you need to extend beyond buying the S&P?
Maybe 130 IQ or higher.
What does that mean? How smart is that?
I don’t know. I’ve never taken an IQ test. I think I’m around 145, maybe. I don’t know.
What percentile is 145?
Let’s see. I don’t know, maybe the 95th percentile of the population.
That’s the top 1% to 3% of the general population—1 in 700 people. There are probably 250 people watching the stream, so by default, over the next 3 days, you would be the smartest person in the stream, just based on pure math. I think that’s correct.
You’re cutting out. Can you hear me, or is it just me?
It’s you. It’s you. It’s you. Don’t worry. Don’t worry. Check, check, check, check, check. Tell him to leave and come back. Hold on. I can’t find the chat with him.
You can all hear me, right? Leave and come back. It’s you, not me. This guy’s kind of sick. What should I ask him? What do you want me to ask him?
What IQ do you think I have? Be honest. Get my IQ. I’ll take an IQ test on stream. I swear I’ll do it. Can we do a short one? How long can an IQ test be?
My Wi-Fi cut out.
Okay, you’re back. You’re back. Sorry. Sorry. Dude, that’s 1 in 700.
What?
Yeah, that’s high. Did you make that up, or did you take a test?
No, I took some tests.
So you think that if you’re under 115 IQ, you shouldn’t trade or think about buying anything? Give me that take.
All I know is that I didn’t know it was that high, to be honest.
Give me the full take. Give me a number.
Are you just making your IQ up? It’s not true.
No, I took the test.
I can screenshot you the results. Whatever. Maybe it’s 120-plus.
I also think there are people with lower IQs who are very successful in life and in these sorts of industries.
Why are you laughing at me?
It’s just good. Keep going.
The chat is geeking out over the IQ take. They like the IQ take.
Yeah, good.
I think a lot of people don’t understand that you actually need to have an edge, and you need to justify why something isn’t priced in. If you can’t justify why something isn’t priced in, then you should not make the trade.
I think that’s a good take. When—or how—did you realize you could make money on Polymarket for the first time? When did you realize you had an edge?
It was probably in the Middle East, or through copying other people’s trades.
Copying other people’s trades? What’s your strategy for copy trading people?
I wouldn’t say copy trading.
I think it’s actually the opposite of copy trading. I think one way to get—
No. Well, so, okay. So one way to get some more edge on Polymarket is to speak to your counterparty, to speak with the other side. If there’s a market, sometimes it’s hard to know why it’s priced this way. By talking with people on the other side, you can find out why they’re betting on that side and determine if they’re complete idiots.
Okay, so how often are you trading solo in a silo versus talking to other traders? How much of your trading is independent versus crowdsourced?
I’d say it’s 50/50. On oil, it’s only me because obviously there’s no data. There’s nobody else I know who’s trading oil futures.
Interesting. On Hyperliquid, how many Polymarket traders who are good in prediction markets are making money in other vehicles, like Hyperliquid, crypto markets, whatever?
I know you had Mav [?] on your stream a few months or weeks ago.
Yeah.
I know she bought oil futures. Maybe it was using TradFi. I’d say the percentage is maybe 5% to 10%.
Interesting. What do you think is going to happen with 2028? We talked about it very briefly at the beginning. Rubio, Vance on the other side as well.
Rubio’s not going to run. Rubio enjoys his job as Secretary of State, and he’s not going to want to go on the campaign trail. He probably will lose, by the way. He would rather retain his Secretary of State’s job, and because of this, I just don’t think he’s going to run. He won’t want to go on the campaign trail.
I think the fair value for JD is likely. Dude, I feel like they’re sabotaging Vance. JD Vance is the most anti–Middle East war person in the Trump administration, and when the war starts, he says nothing the entire time.
They are, yeah.
The first time they let JD Vance speak, they throw him to Pakistan to do negotiations. That was nuts. I can tell you why.
Okay, go.
They’re saving Marco, who is, in my opinion, a remarkable candidate for 2032.
2032? Are we going to make it that long? I mean, that’s the assumption, I suppose.
Why would they save him for 2032? Do you think the 2028 election—
Because the 2020 election is cooked, yes.
You think it’s cooked regardless?
Yes, yes. And so what, Gavin Newsom? AOC, I guess.
Are you betting on it in that direction?
I haven’t bet on candidates. I’ve bet on the party winner, and I’ve bet on JD Vance over Marco by selling my yes shares. But I do think AOC is much less likely than Gavin Newsom. Those are the top two.
I know. I’m just reading what chat’s saying.
Yeah, fair.
I mean, AOC’s tough, right? But I guess we’ll see. I don’t have much of a take on 2028 at all outside of the Republican side. We’ll see. We’ll see.
I think if AOC wins and gets nominated, or if it’s very clear she’s going to win, Marco is much more likely to run because she’s such a weak candidate and she’s way too extreme. Marco’s pretty centrist, or right of center, I guess.
Someone said, “Apply to Jane Street.” Yeah, I got an interview. Anyways.
If AOC runs, I think Marco is much more likely to run because she’s such a weak candidate and she’s way too extreme. Marco’s pretty centrist, or right of center, I guess.
How do you trade around Trump announcements and speeches?
I think you need to be very careful because Trump says a different thing every day. I recently charted Trump’s statements, graphing how likely he is to make a deal versus how likely he is to escalate, and it literally spiked up and down every single day.
You have to be very careful about what he says. He says a different thing every day, especially with the Iran war. That’s a big risk if you’re fully going into one statement after he says it. The markets have begun to understand this a little bit more, but they still fluctuate with these varying statements.
Obviously, when he says, “We’ve just secured a two-week ceasefire through our mediators in Pakistan,” that’s a very clear signal. Beyond that, a lot of what he says varies day to day.
What’s been your biggest win? Or maybe not just pure P&L, but the trade that you’re most proud of?
I think I’m very proud of the commodity trade. That was pretty good. I’m fairly proud that I’ve traded so many really small markets.
Yeah, yeah, that’s what I was saying. My trades are actually pretty small. At least they were until recently, when I kind of sized up. I have so many just—
A few-thousand-dollar wins.
Yeah, yeah. But, you know, that just makes money.
Dude, I’ve enjoyed talking to you. Give me the advice you give people who are trying to figure out how to make money, or where to make money, on Polymarket. How do you make money on Polymarket if you’re a profitable crypto trader or trader elsewhere?
Make sure you have your edge. Make sure you can justify where the market’s mispriced. Make sure you understand why people are betting in the other direction. Make sure you have all the information, and don’t be afraid not to take a trade, because not taking a trade is basically a trade.
Who do you think we should get on? Who are your favorite Polymarket traders?
Favorite Polymarket traders? I think I’d get my friend Remember [?] on Polygon. He’s pretty smart. He’s a sharp guy. He’s made maybe $1 million in the last few years since he started, about a year and a half ago. I think he’s a great guy to talk to. Obviously, you already spoke with Matt, who’s great as well.
What do you think is the upper bound of how much you could make on Poly? You specifically.
Upper bound for me, with my strategy? I think a few million a year, which is why I’m excited for there to be much more liquidity. Obviously, Polymarket announced perpetuals. I think I would ultimately need to expand my strategy to other markets beyond geopolitics, and I would need to be much more frequent and much more online. I’d also need more bots.
I appreciate you coming on. This is sick. It’s like a different side. Is there anything you want to promote or sign off with?
I don’t have anything to promote. Just check out my Twitter page. BrokeyTrades.
Dude, the PFP is killing me, by the way. At the beginning, it was hard to focus. I apologize.
It’s a joke.
Thanks for coming on stream, Brokie. It was a pleasure, man. It was great to meet you. Maybe we’ll do it again at $1 million in P&L.
Yes. Thank you, brother. Much love, dude. Peace. Bye.
The guy’s nuts, man. I like that. Those are the types of people I like to talk to. He’s up—damn, he’s up $500,000. Impressive. He makes a couple million a year, too. Impressive.
Shout out to Broke Kid Trades. I followed him. I think he’s a good follow. I just followed him, too. I hadn’t followed him before. Some of these follow-my-guy guys are hilarious. They’re really funny. Shout out to Broke Kid.