[BidClub_]
38 episodes2 active
Language
Yet Another Value PodcastEN · 48 min

$DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management

Andrew WalkerSteve Gorelik

DNOW’s MRC Global merger creates a full-chain distributor with $75M targeted synergies and water, utilities, and data-center exposure.Buybacks at $10–12 and debt paydown support a cash-flow case, while the conservative-looking 2027 $350M EBITDA guide compares with roughly $400M on 2024 numbers.Reaching $30–32 by 2028–2029 from $16 depends on $300M 2027 FCF and re-rating, leaving ERP execution, macro recovery, and multiple expansion to monitor.

Invest Like the BestEN · 57 min

Why Natural Gas Will Be AI’s Next Great Shortage

Patrick O'ShaughnessyMatthew Smith

Matthew Smith’s model points to US natural-gas storage falling below all historical levels by 2029 as contracted LNG and AI compute outstrip deliverability, with electricity prices bearing the impact in 2028-2030.The market remains priced near $3.50-3.60, while Expand Energy and Range offer leverage to a potential physical-gas scramble; processing, pipelines, nuclear timelines, and consumer costs remain key risks.

20VCEN · 61 min

Bloom Energy CEO: Why We Aren’t in an AI Capex Bubble | Energy Sovereignty & The Future of Power

Harry StebbingsKR Sridhar

AI factories make electricity the binding input, and KR Sridhar frames Bloom Energy’s opportunity against a $5.5 trillion power market versus $2 billion of revenue last year.Oracle’s 50+ MW contract in 90 days and delivery in 55 days support the architecture case, while scaling from 1 GW to over 2 gigawatts by year-end leaves permits, gas supply, and customer buildouts as constraints.

All-InEN · 68 min

All-In's Best Ideas Pitch Competition: 4 Investors Present Their Top Trades Live

Chamath PalihapitiyaAaron CowenDan DreyfusOleg NodelmanKyle SamaniJason CalacanisDavid SacksDavid Friedberg

MGM’s $48 bid offers a near-term floor while Osaka and possible Dubai legalization create asymmetric upside, whereas Talen monetizes a 2 GW nuclear and 6 GW gas portfolio amid a projected PJM power shortage.Aktis remains a binary 2027 clinical platform wager, and GEODNET links revenue to token purchases; portfolio sizing ultimately turns on liquidity, downside, regulatory intervention, and whether satellites displace terrestrial RTK.

高能量ZH · 93 min

Vol.218 宏观漫谈105|从AI资本市场热潮到挑战石油美元体系,历史几乎每次都一样(5.24录制)

李翔李丰

两轮risk off后,资金重新涌入中美最拥挤的AI与机器人交易,英伟达市值升至5.5万亿美元。美国增长预期约一半建立在大型公司AI Capex持续增加之上,但低成本旧产能、企业FOMO与囤货放大了一季度表现。亚马逊可能已进入Capex超过自由现金流阶段,微软等或于明年一至二季度跟随,而token收入尚未证明商业闭环。

Sohn Conference FoundationEN · 11 min

Alex Silver pitches BWX Technologies at Sohn 2026

Alex Silver

BWX Technologies combines a contracted, sole-sourced government business representing 75% of revenue with 400+ Navy nuclear cores built without a safety incident and scarce licensing and manufacturing capabilities.ANM’s thesis hinges on 4–5-year time-to-power, a potential mPower-based PWR white space, and more than 100% upside from about $200, but customer interest must de-risk any updated design.

Sohn Conference FoundationEN · 11 min

Jacob Rubin pitches Galaxy Digital at Sohn 2026

Jacob Rubin

Jacob Rubin frames Galaxy Digital as a data-center opportunity, with a conservative sum-of-the-parts and CoreWeave DCF covering today’s $29-to-$30 stock while Helios combines 1.6 GW of approved power with a 15-year contract.An 830 MW customer announcement by year-end is the key catalyst; applying Hut 8’s deal math implies $13 per share, though negative cash flows, execution risk and the multiyear build remain unresolved.

Yet Another Value PodcastEN · 46 min

Pershing Square Challenge 2026 runner-ups on Baker Hughes $BKR

Andrew Walker

Baker Hughes is pitched as a misunderstood transition from oilfield services toward IET, now roughly half the mix versus 37% in 2020, with demand potentially extending into a “2030 and beyond” story.The mechanism is turbine-tier substitution and 10-year-plus service agreements at roughly double equipment margins, while the $13.5B all-cash Chart deal offers upside but leaves integration, valuation, and governance risks to monitor.

All-InEN · 81 min

OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze

David Friedberg

OpenAI missed its 1 billion weekly-active-user and 2025 ChatGPT revenue targets, but ChatGPT 5.5 and Codex are gaining developer momentum as Opus 4.7 struggles.Power—not demand—is the AI choke point as four hyperscalers guide $725B of 2026 CapEx, shifting leverage toward capacity suppliers while pressuring free cash flow.

Yet Another Value PodcastEN · 62 min

Chadd Garcia drills into LandBridge's value

Andrew WalkerChad Garcia

Chad Garcia frames LandBridge as a higher-quality Permian land and surface-use royalty play, trading at 20–22x EBITDA versus TPL’s 28–31x.Management said 5M bbl/day could be absorbed within five years at 15-cents-per-barrel pricing, implying 25% FCF CAGR despite no long-term guidance.Data-center upside remains a free option, with no Permian hyperscaler definitively announced.