Avi Felman × Seth Ginns

Franklin Templeton’s acquisition of Seth Ginns’s CoinFund liquid-fund spinout expands its crypto team, advancing a 2026 convergence thesis while prices lag sell-side momentum.CLARITY’s vote could bring federal preemption if passed; failure would slow progress, leaving commercial adoption as the hedge against political pushback.

Avi Felman × Alexander Good × Jonah Van Bourg

Alex Good’s ad-buying strategy linked acquisition economics to market attention, from long EA/short Booking to Tesla clicks driven by “Elon Musk.”His “goldfish theory” favors recurring attention over forecasting, but fragmentation and trust can break the trade; he is bearish Palantir at 100x sales.He expects AI layoffs within 3 months, while politics and 6% annualized productivity could reshape the opportunity set.

CLARITY remains blocked by Trump-family ethics; absent progress by August 7, November passage looks difficult and failure could defer action two years.Robinhood captured roughly $816K from chain activity versus about $80K for Arbitrum and $1,500 for Ethereum, sharpening debate over ETH value capture.Base’s reset and Kobe’s expanded responsibilities may not be priced into Coinbase stock as it works to reconnect with crypto-native traders.

Avi Felman × Ari Paul × Jonah Van Bourg

Ari Paul warns frontier AI labs could face a Los Alamos style lockdown or full US government control within three years, a risk he says markets are not pricing.He also argues AI is where crypto was in 2021-22, with 95% of companies still likely to fail and data-center overbuilding potentially echoing late-90s fiber.The monitor is whether nationalization, stolen IP, private alpha, rotating bottlenecks, and locked-in distribution reshape which AI economics reach shareholders.

Jason Yanowitz × Santiago Roel Santos

Hyperliquid’s SpaceX pre-IPO market has become a mainstream price oracle, with SpaceX around $2.1T versus indicated pricing of $1.5–1.75T and hedge funds using it to handicap the open.HYPE’s roughly $700M revenue and HIP-3’s 45% non-crypto volume support a differentiated growth case, but at roughly 60x run-rate earnings it is “fully valued”; CFTC regulation and the SpaceX IPO remain key tests.

Jason Calacanis × Chamath Palihapitiya × Paul Atkins × Michael Selig

SEC Chair Atkins wants to restore the IPO as a financing round through material-disclosure reform, less litigation, and review of quarterly reporting and accreditation rules.CFTC Chair Selig is replacing regulation by enforcement with purpose-fit frameworks for crypto, prediction markets, AI, and blockchain, while agencies pursue coordinated oversight.Tokenization could enable T+0 settlement and broader onshore innovation, but autonomous trading, manipulation, leverage, and gambling-related harms remain unresolved monitoring risks.

Peter Diamandis × Eric Pulier × Dave Blundin × Salim Ismail

Washington’s crypto turn is shifting policy toward dollar-backed stablecoins, instant settlement, tokenized collateral, and yield-bearing assets across a multitrillion-dollar base.AI agents could transact natively through this programmable financial layer, while chip fabrication, 401(k) access, liquid staking, and synthetic-instrument risks remain key execution and market-structure catalysts.

泓君 × 刘锋 × Can Sun × 郑迪

Circle上市后从31美元涨至107美元，交易的首先是合规稳定币纯标的的稀缺性，稳定币总规模能否从2500亿美元扩至2028年2万亿美元仍待验证。GENIUS法案可能打开传统金融入场通道，但Coinbase分走Circle约56%收入、Tether的高风险储备优势及最终监管文本，决定USDC能否释放利润并提升份额。

李翔 × 李丰

中美元首通话至少把关税战重新框进“能谈”的范围，特朗普单独点出稀土，显示中国出口管制可能形成超预期杠杆。企业接单却不敢扩产，供应链也正按销售市场分区；7月前若谈判压住波动，预期或修复，但特朗普反复、服务业通胀与政策持续性仍是风险。

Kevin Roose × Casey Newton × David Yaffe-Bellany

Google is putting AI Mode inside Search, a $54 billion last-quarter franchise, replacing 10 blue links with bespoke answers and risking core-business cannibalization.ChatGPT may reach 1% of search by year-end, while defaults could accelerate displacement and Chegg shows the publisher-supplier downside.Trump’s narrower Bitcoin reserve preserves seized holdings, while stablecoin rules, CFTC authority and possible XRP or Solana ETFs could integrate crypto into conventional finance.