based16z × Thread Guy

Hyperliquid became based16z’s defining trade after he recognized its superior product and exceptional founder before an investable token existed.Rare asymmetric setups—not frequent activity—powered positive crypto years despite a 25%–30% win rate, while oversized positions and 40x leverage damaged realized returns.Whop marks his shift toward positive-sum equity and products, but permanent holding remains unresolved.

Koji × 汪天凡 Will

汪天凡认为，AI应用的稀缺性将从通用智能转向叠加个人context的“智慧”，硬件可能成为承载记忆、反馈与行为的context machine。BAI已布局Looki等四五家公司，但交互层能否注入人性、形成竞争力仍待验证；同时AI基础设施估值与大厂AI CapEx变化，可能在今年年底到明年年初带来资金面风险。

Chamath Palihapitiya × Aaron Cowen × Dan Dreyfus × Oleg Nodelman × Kyle Samani × Jason Calacanis × David Sacks × David Friedberg

MGM’s $48 bid offers a near-term floor while Osaka and possible Dubai legalization create asymmetric upside, whereas Talen monetizes a 2 GW nuclear and 6 GW gas portfolio amid a projected PJM power shortage.Aktis remains a binary 2027 clinical platform wager, and GEODNET links revenue to token purchases; portfolio sizing ultimately turns on liquidity, downside, regulatory intervention, and whether satellites displace terrestrial RTK.

Ansem × FaZe Banks × TJR × Tristan Thompson × Mizkif

Coinbase’s Native Markets acquisition, replacing USDH with Circle’s USDC, could add an estimated $150M to HYPE revenue from a roughly $5B stablecoin treasury as the CLARITY Act advances.That alignment supports HYPE, but flat last-quarter revenue remains a risk as stock perps represent roughly 30–40% of volume; the attention thesis also underpins Take-Two’s GTA 6 setup around $210, with roughly $200 as invalidation.

李翔 × 李丰

软件股暴跌、英伟达财报后下跌与数字货币大跌，可能并非独立基本面事件，而是全球资金对美元资产Risk Off及高低切换的结果。英伟达接近一千亿美元的长期采购承诺成为观察流动性是否剥到“洋葱核”的信号，中国AI则可能受益于资金重配，但解禁压力、PPI/CPI与地产企稳仍需跟踪。

TJR × Thread Guy

TJR says his edge is doing less: his most profitable months have the fewest trades, so he waits weeks for high-conviction setups and limits index trading to a two-hour New York-open window.After the failed 2025 alt season, he bought unlevered Bitcoin spot near $101K and favors larger assets, while a $426K FOMC win showed the value of fading crowded consensus after liquidity confirmation.

Kevin Roose × Casey Newton × Chris Hayes

TikTok has become “Schrödinger’s app”: existing US users can access it after Oracle and Akamai accepted Trump’s non-enforcement promise, while Apple and Google keep ByteDance apps out of stores because statutory exposure is $5,000 per user.The same political discretion is monetizing attention through TRUMP, MELANIA, and Pump.fun, with reported family fees of $58 million and concentrated token holdings, while security updates, corruption concerns, and a potential China-US deal remain unresolved.

Avi Felman × Jonah Van Bourg

Crypto’s maturation is replacing three-week melt-ups with a six- or seven-year choppy grind, making patience and thesis-driven positioning more valuable.PUMP combines $1.3 million-$2.5 million daily revenue with roughly $1.5 million in apparent daily buybacks, while BNB offers conditional upside from possible U.S. perpetuals access.Tokenized collectibles such as CARDS could make off-chain wealth standardized, liquid, and financeable, while TRX carries severe conditional downside.