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Thread Guy · · 68 分钟

TraderMayne:如何熬过市场崩盘、交易建议及更多 | TG Podcast

Thread GuyTraderMayne

加密投资宏观
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TL;DR
  • 这场崩盘与其说是对加密市场的裁决,不如说是一次演示:隐性杠杆、交叉保证金抵押品和失灵的交易所,如何把一次回调变成无差别的连环清算。 Bitcoin 下跌约10–15%,SUI 和 Pump.fun 分别下跌约85%和82%;据称 CRV 在期货市场一度触及0.20美元,但现货跌幅远没有那么深。TraderMayne 的结论很直接:「围观这场行情的人里,99%根本不该碰杠杆。」

  • Thread Guy 仍然战术性看多,因为 Bitcoin、ETH 和 SOL 守住了周线支撑,但他的乐观有明确的失效条件:Bitcoin 周线收盘跌破100,000美元,就意味着“我们大概完了”。 他预计 Bitcoin 将收复历史新高,并认为 ETH 可能在几周内升至5,000–6,000美元,山寨币则会在这轮出清后反弹。TraderMayne 偏好的表达方式,是等市场稳定后买入现货,风险锚定现货市场低点,而不是被扭曲的永续合约插针带偏。

  • 实际的复苏打法,是停止追逐已经消失的账户余额,转而优化手头剩下的资本。 未实现利润「还不属于你」,周五的数字应当被视为已经不存在:重新评估现金、仓位和集中度,然后基于现在手里的投资组合行动。「机会不会消失,波动也不会离场。」

  • TraderMayne 真正持久的优势是活得够久,而不是押中一笔惊天交易。 早年加密生涯中,他因被操纵的山寨币上币行情损失了数百枚、甚至可能数千枚当时价格低于100,000美元的BTC,随后离开加密市场2年,之后重新学习周期规律,最终得出结论:成功意味着「永远不要输光,并且一轮一轮积累财富」。交易、meme coin 和杠杆最终都应当服务于积累更多 Bitcoin,而不是成为终点。

  • “还有谁会接盘?”这一空头论点,忽略了仍然留在场内的资本,以及筹码从弱手转移到强手的过程,但山寨币面临的生存性威胁确实存在。 ETF、数字资产财库和现金充裕的交易者仍能提供需求;与此同时,如果股票可以全天候在线交易,散户可能会通过 Robinhood 和 Polymarket 投机,而不是去操作流动性枯竭的代币。Pump.fun 时代的发行量也严重稀释了注意力,以至于「我们已经不再讲这些币的故事,因为它们实在太多了」。

  • Thread Guy 认为本轮周期可能出现最后一轮加速,推动 Bitcoin 至少涨到140,000–150,000美元,随后由 ETH 发出离场窗口正在关闭的警报。 如果 Bitcoin 冲向175,000美元、在150,000美元附近企稳,随后 ETH 在1周内从5,000–6,000美元涨到约10,000美元,他会将其视为「本轮周期的丧钟」,大举卖出并寻求避险。离场应结合市场结构、现实可达的价格目标和组合层面的盈利目标,而不是押注一个完美顶部。

  • 周期之外,TraderMayne 的防御性配置刻意更分散,也更无聊:Bitcoin、流动性、实物黄金、多种货币、亚洲资产,以及在负担得起的情况下配置住房或土地,并维持较低的固定开支。 两位嘉宾都担心股票、住房和普通消费者将迎来「难看的2026、2027年」,尽管 TraderMayne 承认自己「甚至不能100%确定」会如何配置。目标不是预测每一次宏观拐点,而是持有足够多的耐久资产和流动性,熬过衰退并买入最终底部。

摘要 · 为研究而整理的核心内容

1. 清算级联暴露了价格图表无法显示的风险

  • TraderMayne 开场强调的是速度:交易者几乎没有决策时间,交易所变得无法使用,止损单也失效。据称 Lighter 宕机约1小时,Thread Guy 后来说 Binance 也在波动期间出现宕机。

  • Thread Guy 此前曾警告 Bitcoin 可能跌破100,000美元。TraderMayne 原本预计 Bitcoin 市占率会上升并打击山寨币,但没想到会出现超过80%的崩跌。他说,被讨论为「Dent Ping」或「DJ Ping」的交易者,似乎是缺乏预判者中的例外。

  • 期货盘面的情况远差于现货:SUI 下跌约85%,Pump.fun 下跌约82%,据称 CRV 在衍生品市场一度触及0.20美元,但现货交易所并未触及同样低点。跨市场清算把整个账户变成抵押品,并迫使原本互不相关的仓位同步卖出。

  • TraderMayne 讲到一位朋友损失了8位数,其中约6位数来自清算:深度挂单买单在插针期间成交,随后在资产反弹至40之前又被清算。「你接住了触及21的那根针,结果自己也在那里被清算。」

2. 杠杆会把普通错误变成毁掉职业生涯的错误

  • TraderMayne 在2021年得到的惨痛教训是:当时他在 FTX 做多「全世界所有垃圾币」。Bitcoin 回调10–15%,山寨币流动性消失,他在接近底部的位置平仓,而市场第二天反弹约60%,6个月的成果在一场交易中被抹去。

  • 他现在的系统是隔离出一笔有限的交易所余额,预先接受这笔钱可能全部损失,尝试将其做大,提取利润,然后重复这个过程。他不再把全部资本放在交易所,也不再让财富中有意义的比例暴露在杠杆之下。

  • 交叉保证金之所以能提供更高的购买力,是因为整个账户为每个仓位提供支持,但这正是危险所在。TraderMayne 有时只会在一笔刻意设定上限的账户中使用交叉保证金;对于大多数使用大额资金的交易者,他的建议是采用逐仓保证金。

  • Thread Guy 的比喻比任何风险提示都更能说明问题:杠杆就是滚烫的炉子。交易者往往必须亲手碰过,才会真正理解它,而你「只能祈祷这只是擦伤,不是致命一击」。

3. 现货敞口是回到市场的首选方式

  • Thread Guy 表示,从更高时间周期看,Bitcoin、ETH 和 SOL 的结构仍然稳固,因为三者都没有跌破周线支撑。他会「假装什么都没发生」一样交易,在 ETH 跌破4,000美元或 Bitcoin 约110,000美元附近买入任何部分插针回撤,而不是等待不可能复现的期货低点。

  • 接住第一把下落的飞刀则是另一回事:交易所宕机、止损失效,使得行动变得危险,除非交易者完全确定并愿意损失这笔资本。在 Bitcoin 明确反弹后,TraderMayne 表示现货提供了更干净的风险敞口,止损应参考现货低点。

  • Thread Guy 的预测仍然激进,但有条件限制:ETH 可能在约3周内升至5,000–6,000美元,Bitcoin 可能收复历史新高,经历出清的山寨币则可能在未来几个月上涨至原来的2倍、3倍或4倍。他表示,如果 Bitcoin 周线收盘跌破100,000美元,这一判断就失效:「我们大概完了。」

4. 山寨币具备反弹凸性,但面临真实的需求问题

  • Thread Guy 筛选山寨币时,不仅看其对美元的表现,也看其相对 BTC 和 ETH 的表现,寻找在这两个比价维度上同时筑底的资产。他认为,下一轮大规模出清可能正是新一轮山寨币季启动前必须经历的过程。

  • Thread Guy 提出的最强空头挑战是结构性的:如果股票变得流动性充足,并且可以全天候在线交易,散户为什么还要买冷门山寨币?他和 TraderMayne 都同意,这是一个真实的生存性风险,尤其是在 Robinhood、Polymarket 和其他平台提供更容易的投机渠道之后。

  • Pump.fun 以及铺天盖地的发行,已经把注意力切碎:市场不再围绕一个持久故事运行,而是每个月轮换一个新叙事。不过 TraderMayne 没有因此宣布山寨币死亡,因为市场总会发明出「比上一个更荒谬、也更容易交易的新金融金字塔」。

  • ZEC 是眼下的反例。Thread Guy 指出,它几乎没有受到崩盘影响;TraderMayne 则表示,其行情已经酝酿了数月,图表结构也很 bullish。他们更广泛的观点是,市场中会存在不同步走强的赢家,交易者的任务是识别它们上涨的原因。

5. Crypto Twitter 放大恐慌,也奖励事后诸葛亮

  • TraderMayne 谴责对钱包的监控,认为这种行为非常可悲。Thread Guy 曾经恐慌性卖出,并担心别人如何评价自己,但后来得出结论:真正拿资本冒险的人,很少会因为别人止盈或止损而去羞辱对方。「这更多说明了他们是什么样的人,而不是说明你是什么样的人。」

  • TraderMayne 的筛选标准是先预测、再谈安全,而不是事后发表评论。他尊重像 Anom 这样愿意明确站队的人;而时间线上大多数人只会在危险期间保持沉默,等到感觉安全后才重新发推。

  • 即使一个看似超自然的判断,也需要配合仓位管理。TraderMayne 称那位被讨论为「Dent Ping」或「DJ Ping」的交易者所做的预测「超凡脱俗」,但同时警告,不要把任何预测者当成先知:一次之后的错误,就可能毁掉那些基于借来的信念押上一切的追随者。

  • 所谓 Hyperliquid 内幕人士说明了同样的分心问题。TraderMayne 认为,亚洲方面关于稀有金属的提前报道,比精密的特朗普团队阴谋更可信;但他的可执行结论更简单:交易者是在与信息更灵通的参与者玩一场「洗牌游戏」,指控帖对盈亏毫无帮助。

6. 积累 Bitcoin,把生存变成可重复的策略

  • 在早期加密生涯中,TraderMayne 曾跟着内部人士,在 BBQCoin 和 Feathercoin 等代币上线交易所前买入;这些人随后把库存倒给接盘者,让他损失了数百枚、甚至可能数千枚当时价值低于100,000美元的BTC。他认定加密市场是骗局,离开了2年。

  • 2017年周期回归后,他的思维从追逐暴富转向持久生存:保存资本、在更低位置买入,并穿越多个周期复利。「我是靠时间一点一块砖一块砖地把这一切垒起来的。」

  • 他的 SafeMoon 案例揭示了运气与能力的区别。一位不做加密的朋友赚到7位数,拒绝兑现利润的建议,把一次彩票中奖当成可以重复的结果;类似 James Wynn 的抄底交易又制造了同样的虚假信心,直到市场环境发生变化。

  • Bitcoin 是长期记分牌。TraderMayne 把积累过程想象成 Mortal Kombat 的关卡:1枚、2枚、5枚、10枚,最终达到100枚BTC;100枚构成代际传承的「永恒堡垒」,超过这一门槛的资本则可以用于主动投机。

7. 宏观环境恶化时,财富保全的重要性更高

  • 两位嘉宾都不认可财富暴增后的生活方式通胀。Thread Guy 认为 Salsa Tequila 所说的500万美元足以让人「对所有人说都滚开」,听起来很合理;即使是100万美元,只要没有立刻换成买不起的汽车、房子或高昂的日常开支,也足以改变一个年轻人的人生轨迹。

  • Thread Guy 表示,自己属于认为美国金融金字塔——股票和住房——将在2026–2027年迎来难看局面的那一派。TraderMayne 补充说,多年期衰退可能带来30–40%的股市跌幅。他长期仍然相信美国,也承认市场可能再来一轮 AI 驱动的上涨,但同时怀疑美国是否已经接近顶峰。

  • TraderMayne 给出的组合答案是有意分散并进行对冲:Bitcoin、实物黄金、美元,可能还有瑞士法郎和欧元、亚洲投资,以及负担得起的房产或土地。他认为从现在开始 Bitcoin 会跑赢黄金,但同样重视流动性,不愿听从银行家「每一笔现金都必须立即投资」的要求。

  • 家庭中的真实案例更有说服力:他家里有一位教师和一位在职配偶,几乎无法储蓄;而7.50美元的冰咖啡,或两杯啤酒加爆米花就要60美元的普通消费,都说明官方乐观叙事与家庭现实之间相距多远。低开支、自有住所和现金,才能让人留在牌桌上,并利用最终到来的复苏。

8. 终局需要有计划地离场,而不是押中完美顶部

  • Thread Guy 的基准情景是 Bitcoin 至少涨到140,000–150,000美元,BTC 和 ETH 在3个月内创出新高,并在3–6个月内出现某种形式的山寨币季。如果 Bitcoin 冲向175,000美元并在150,000美元附近盘整,他会观察 ETH 发出的最后警报。

  • 如果 ETH 在1周内从约5,000–6,000美元暴涨至10,000美元,这将是「本轮周期的丧钟」。TraderMayne 质疑这一目标是否过低,问 ETH 为什么不能继续涨到20,000美元;Thread Guy 的回答是风险管理:它可能做到,但交易者仍然需要一个让利润真正落袋的价位。

  • Thread Guy 的离场框架结合了3个灵活信号:市场结构、基于图表且现实可达的价格目标,以及投资者自己的组合目标。如果其中任何一个条件先达成或提前失效,就应开始兑现利润;卖出并非不可逆,因为真正的突破或重大利好催化剂出现后,随时可以买回来。

  • TraderMayne 最后的建议既是心理层面的,也是战术层面的:停止反复查看过去的余额,必要时削减组合,并基于今天的资本做决定。「把上周抛到脑后,已经结束了。」准备好后再回来,因为他不认为现在是放弃市场的时候。

完整逐字稿
Thread Guy

Wow. Trader, I’m not sure we’ve ever needed you as much as we do now. We just finished streaming with you last week. Welcome back, dude. How are you, brother? We need you, man. I have a habit of going for coffee every morning. It’s about a 20-minute walk, give or take, and today I listened to your latest video. It was really good. Thanks, bro.

TraderMayne

Thank you. As someone who has been through things like this before, sometimes you just need to hear that everything is going to be okay, no matter how crazy it is. But it’s hard, man. We’ll see many more “corpses” in the coming days and weeks. This is just madness.

How bad was it from the perspective of traders like the “kids,” you know? Look at that guy from BONK. I’m not trying to push a man when he’s down, but this guy was one of the main stories of the whole cycle as a crypto Twitter star, showing godlike entries into all these crazy altcoins. It just goes to show that leverage is no joke.

That was bad. I think, in terms of dollars, this is the biggest collapse in history, right? Simply because the market is much bigger now.

Thread Guy

COVID was crazy too.

1. The Market Moves Too Fast

TraderMayne

The craziest thing about all of this, in my opinion, is the speed. You just didn’t have time to make decisions. One of the worst things that has appeared in on-chain, in my opinion, is monitoring other people’s wallets. It’s a cancerous tumor.

2. Wallet Watching Is Pathetic

We have a bunch of fools tracking wallets like yours. “Oh, Thread Guy sold. What the hell?” In my opinion, this is some of the worst, most pathetic behavior. The market was exploding, you sold some coins to lock in a profit, and that’s a reason to hate you? This is complete nonsense. If you do that, it’s pathetic. Stop doing this. Worry about your own pockets.

Thread Guy

You know what I realized about this? I actually struggled with it over the weekend because I panic-sold. I didn’t know what else to do. This is still my fourth-best trade, if anyone’s counting. It’s in my wallet, and I have to pay these taxes. I was really worried about it over the weekend. I was going crazy reading all these tweets.

And you know what I realized? You always said, when you came on stream and we were talking about Anom, “Yeah, I respect that he has the guts to say that this is the top, because at least he’s picking a side and making a prediction.”

I justified it to myself by saying that LeBron James doesn’t respect Stephen A. Smith because Stephen A. Smith never even played basketball at the state level. And so I think that’s...

TraderMayne

I’ve never seen you criticize someone for closing a losing trade. I think it just works like this: if you take risks yourself and have a position in the market, you won’t cling to others who also take risks and have a position.

Thread Guy

So I started to worry less about it.

TraderMayne

Yeah. The only one I touch is Kappo because it’s funny. But no one who is actually participating in the game would bully someone for making a move or making money. “Oh my God, you made money.” This is just nonsense.

This says more about them than it does about you. Nobody who has real money and actually plays watches other people’s wallets to say, “Oh my God, this guy sold out. What a loser.” It’s ridiculous.

Thread Guy

Was this the worst day in crypto? What was the worst day in crypto?

TraderMayne

Listen, I’ve had a lot of them. Every time this happened, it felt like the end of the world, even though I didn’t really lose anything. I made money, but that’s because I was able to buy.

3. Leverage Lessons Last

I learned a long time ago not to play with as much leverage as I used to. Events like this had already happened to me, for example, in 2021, right at the peak. I’ll never forget it. It was Jake Paul’s fight against Nate Robinson in April 2021, and I was long every shitcoin on the planet on FTX.

The market began to correct. Bitcoin fell by 10–15%, liquidity in altcoins disappeared from exchanges, and I watched as I suddenly started losing money from my profits without a liquidation price. My liquidation price was getting close to the real price, and I closed at the fucking bottom. The next day, everything bounced back 60%, and I thought, “I just lost six months of work in one day.”

That’s why I don’t trade like that anymore. I only use a percentage of my money. I put it on the exchange, and it’s an amount I’m willing to lose completely—to zero. I try to multiply it, take it out, and do it again.

I don’t keep all my money in the market anymore, and I definitely don’t trade with leverage on a significant portion of my capital. Although I’m not going to tell you that you shouldn’t do it. That’s what we’ve all tried to do to get rich, right? You’re trying to make huge profits. These are lessons.

Thread Guy

I think what you did very well was work on your mistakes. You wrote a great thread. You wrote what you felt at that moment. This is how you learn. You have to say to yourself, “Okay, what did I feel at this moment? What decisions did I make? Were they correct?” Looking back, that’s the only way you can get better.

TraderMayne

If this is your first time, welcome to the crypto world. There will be many more such cases. That was a bad case. That was bad.

Thread Guy

Like me, if you remember from the last video, I was saying, “Hey, Bitcoin could go below $100,000. That wouldn’t be good.”

TraderMayne

You actually said that, and I reminded you of it on our last stream, by the way.

Thread Guy

But I didn’t expect altcoins to fall by 80%. Do you understand what I mean? I didn’t expect that. It’s kind of crazy how much leverage can build up in the system without anyone even realizing it. So, yeah, it was bad.

TraderMayne

If you get dumped, man, it’s hard as hell. But we need to get back in the saddle. I think all these kumbayas are over. It’s time to get back in the game.

The markets look crazy. You can sit back and watch everything trade at all-time highs, or you can try to make a profit.

Thread Guy

I’m not going to brag about myself here, but the last thing I’ll say about myself is that I did write that thread. I’ve been seriously engaged in self-reflection this weekend. It was a difficult weekend, not so much because of the money. Honestly, I would lose 20%. It wasn’t so much about money as it was about an emotional panic reaction.

I just finished watching the CZ stream. I was so excited, and then I started thinking. I justified it to myself by saying that sometime in the future—maybe you’ve had this happen before—in 2 years, the same thing will happen. Instead of panicking about a average six-figure sum, it’ll be 8 or 9 figures, and I’ll know what to do in a situation that has a much bigger impact on the trajectory of my life.

TraderMayne

Life moves up and to the right. We talked about this in the last video, right? This is the higher low of your capital, right? A higher low. You’ll see new all-time highs soon. You are in an endless bull market, if you will.

The most important thing is not to think about what you had on Friday. That doesn’t exist anymore. That number is already unrealistic. What do you have now? Let’s optimize and maximize the remainder of the bull rally with what we have.

Thread Guy

So how did you trade on Friday? What are you doing? Let’s say you’re at your computer, you have good Wi-Fi, and you have money ready. How do you act at such a moment?

TraderMayne

I missed the short. I opened a short, like Anom, around $119,000, and placed my stop-loss at the all-time high. When we broke the all-time high, I thought, “Okay, I guess I was wrong.”

There was an opportunity to short again. When we got back below that level, I didn’t expect altcoins to fall that low. In the heat of the moment, if you’re not 100% sure of your actions or aren’t ready to risk the money you’re trading, trying to catch a falling knife isn’t the best idea.

First of all, many of these exchanges were completely bricked, meaning they were nonfunctional. It seemed like Lighter had been down for about an hour and simply wasn’t working at all. Stop orders didn’t work. This is a dangerous game.

4. Spot Beats Leverage

But if you look at spot, in my opinion, it’s time to go into spot. I don’t think we’ll see many of these wicks anymore, especially in altcoins. I wouldn’t be surprised if, in 3 weeks, by the end of this month, ETH were worth $5,000–$6,000 and people were saying, “What the hell? I could have bought this for $3,600 4 weeks ago.”

After everything settles down a bit, a lot of people will say, “Hey, now is the time to add leverage,” but that’s a double-edged sword. Ninety-nine percent of the people watching this shouldn’t touch leverage at all. Seriously, you just shouldn’t do it.

You’re trying to play the most difficult game in the world against the strongest opponents, and you lose. You would have more money just by buying spot. That doesn’t mean you won’t try. These opportunities don’t come along often. They usually produce crazy results, but I think spot is a much safer bet.

When the dust settled after that crash and Bitcoin clearly rebounded, you could just go into spot and set the stop-loss level at the spot lows, which weren’t as terrible as the futures lows.

Crypto is so sneaky, man, because everyone gets destroyed, or a lot of people get carried away feet first. Trump says, “LOL, just kidding,” saying he didn’t mean it, and now people are screaming about ETH targets again. It’s so gloomy.

First of all, most of it wasn’t your money. Until you transfer it to cash, until you transfer it to a cold wallet, until you put it in the bank, it isn’t yours. uPnL means unrealized profit. It hasn’t been realized. It’s not yours yet.

So many people got caught—many of the main characters in this cycle.

Thread Guy

In a few years, you'll be thinking, “What happened to that guy?” You'll go to their page and see, “Damn, they haven't tweeted since October 2025.”

TraderMayne

That's true, dude. I know guys where I think, “Damn, what happened?” I go check, and they haven't tweeted in 3 years. I'm like, “Damn.” They're either successful or they're gone. They were taken out.

Thread Guy

There will be people you communicate with every day who, in 2 years, won't even be in this field.

TraderMayne

Was this a scam? Is that me? Is my stream still working?

Thread Guy

What happened? Are we still on the air? Can you hear me?

TraderMayne

I hear you. It seems you're back. It seems you're back. Okay, you're back.

Thread Guy

Well, okay. I don't... What did I stop at?

Thread Guy

Everything is fine. You just... I lost you in your words about people. You will look back at people. You will look back at people. Yes. People you communicate with every day right now.

Thread Guy

There won't be enough of them, right?

5. Bitcoin Is The Longevity Trade

TraderMayne

And so I will continue to insist: most of you here should be focused on getting Bitcoin. I'm not saying don't trade memecoins, don't go wild, or don't trade with leverage, but you need Bitcoin. Bitcoin fell 15% and came back to 116. Do you understand what I mean? Get Bitcoin. That's longevity in this game.

Accumulate Bitcoin, multiply cycle by cycle. I'm not saying you can't have altcoins, but if this is any good lesson, most of these alts are complete nonsense and can disappear in an instant. So I want to spend a lot of time talking about what happens next, maybe less about what happened. ADA has fallen on a dime, man. SUI fell by 85%. Pump.fun fell by 82%.

Thread Guy

I look at my TradingView on alts and it's like: Pump.fun, minus 85%; SUI, minus 85%. Every hyperliquidity fell by 50–60%. Each individual coin—how is that? How is this even possible?

TraderMayne

So, I don't remember FTX being that aggressive. Arthur Hayes had this amazing thing he used to do on BitMEX when there was crazy volatility: you had a system-overload message, and you simply couldn't perform the operation. You couldn't trade.

Thread Guy

We saw Binance fall, bro. This is the number-one exchange.

TraderMayne

The danger with these exchanges, especially now with cross-margin trading, is that your entire account is collateral for the positions that you're in. These exchanges have to hold a certain amount of these tokens to collateralize all the leverage in the system.

It looks like there's been some kind of massive cascade here because of these cross-market liquidations, right? Such as this cross-market provision. If you look at the spot exchanges and go to Coinbase or Binance for USDT—not perpetual futures—CRV seems to have dropped to 20 cents in futures, but it hasn't dropped that low in spot.

Thread Guy

That was a crazy event, bro.

TraderMayne

This has happened before. Maybe not on this scale or at this level, but it shows that most people shouldn't touch leverage at all.

Thread Guy

I bet most people watching this don't know the difference between isolated leverage, or isolated margin, and cross margin. They say, “I only have 2x. I only have 2x.” It's like, well, it won't help you if the price drops by 80%. You're in full liquidation.

TraderMayne

I mean, the thing is, I'm looking at these prices and thinking, man, I wouldn't have thought it would go this low if Bitcoin was at 60k. I didn't think things would be this bad. Some of these coins have fallen lower than they were in April, when the S&P was at 4,000 and Bitcoin was at 70,000. They fell lower. They set new lows.

Thread Guy

This is also a great opportunity to clean up your feed of all those who told you, “Just buy on every drop.” Of course, they all went in at the lows, naturally.

TraderMayne

The thing is, nobody... the timeline was mostly silent during this. The tape was generally silent when this was happening. Nobody knew what to say. Everyone tweets when it's safe, right?

Thread Guy

That's usually the case. When they're out of danger, it's like, “Okay, it's safe to tweet now.” That's why I again respect guys like Anom who make predictions. Your Friday stream was great, by the way.

TraderMayne

Someone said in the chat, “Thanks, bro.” That was cool. We will need to do these more often. I miss them.

6. The Next Parabolic Wave

Thread Guy

But no, man. Listen, to your question, let's not talk about what happened. Let's talk about what's next. I believe, and I think I talked about this in our last video, that this is exactly the type of event that is needed right now to fuel the next parabolic jump up.

I think ETH will reach 6,000 very soon. I think Bitcoin will soon renew its historical highs. Solana is back above 200. Dude, you need to get back in the game if you're still sitting around licking your wounds. I understand that you want to relax. I want to be in nature, but it's important to focus again.

TraderMayne

Is that very loud? Can you hear that from outside? Is this bad? Can't you hear anything at all?

Thread Guy

Okay, agreed. You work like a lawnmower. This is very loud.

TraderMayne

Okay. So, how can you not feel a little anxious about what just happened? How can you just go back to work and say, “I'm optimistic”? I'm always optimistic, but even I feel a bit uneasy, to be honest.

There is a possibility that this was a warning signal and the market is about to turn around. But judging by the recovery, the reaction of stocks, and the fact that Trump is unlikely to do anything about these tariffs, I don't think Trump will let the market crash. I really don't think he's going to let it fall just yet. He will do everything he can to keep the S&P up for as long as he can, damn it.

Thread Guy

So I'm just looking at the reaction, bro. We got a reprieve and got back above key levels again. I think we have a clear signal to cancel optimism. If Bitcoin closes the week below 100k, we're probably done for. Until then, I think we should stick to a long position.

Honestly, when you were drawing the line to 95 or 98, below 100, did you have even a moment's thought about a cascading liquidation, or was that not envisaged at all?

TraderMayne

I knew for sure that altcoins would fall more because I expected Bitcoin's dominance to increase. I talked about this too. I think Bitcoin's dominance was supposed to grow, and it just took off.

But a large-scale cascade? Of course not. Whoever said, “I knew it”—except maybe Dent Ping, because he's clearly dealing with some otherworldly demonic sorcery to make predictions like that—I don't think anyone predicted that such a massive catastrophe would happen.

Thread Guy

Dude, who the hell is Daan Crypto Trades?

TraderMayne

I think you can look at this from 2 sides. One thing about DJ Ping is that he says, “Buy today,” right? Sell in November. The problem is that October 10 has 24 hours. If you bought an hour before the crash, you lost all your money, right? So it's a little complicated.

It's incredibly impressive that he predicted a black-swan day. I don't know. I guess he's a wizard. There is simply no other explanation in my head. This guy is a wizard, and he shares his magic with us.

The only thing to be careful about with guys like this—and this is not at all a ploy to put down DJ Ping—is that they are not always right. I guess he got his prediction wrong in April or something, or thought June would be a bullish month or something, right? He said April, but one of the predictions turned out to be wrong, and I think that's perfectly normal.

The risk is that people will start thinking, “This guy is a prophet. Let's put him on a pedestal.” Then he makes a mistake, someone bets all their money based on his words, and they get hit. But, God, the result speaks for itself. This prediction was, to put it mildly, otherworldly.

Thread Guy

Hold on, dude. The lawn is not that important. Give me... wait. Is it possible? I have about 30 seconds.

TraderMayne

Okay, wait. Sorry. I'm sorry. So, what do you want to talk about now that he's gone?

Thread Guy

The dude is in his 20s, and he has stuffed toys.

TraderMayne

Oh my God, man. Were you in the middle of something?

Thread Guy

Rasmer [?] wants to mow the lawn later, man. I'm saying, it's not even a lawn. It seems artificial. It's not like... it's artificial.

TraderMayne

Yes, I can feel the lawn. Rasmer [?] is trying to mow the lawn.

Thread Guy

And I say, it's not even grass.

TraderMayne

Okay. Sorry. I was a little distracted, but we're back. So what do you think? Imagine you're completely out of the game after this move: either you sold everything for cash, or you were liquidated and were left with only cash. How do you plan to enter a position in the underlying assets? And secondly, what do you think about altcoins at this stage? How do you generally rate some of these altcoins right now?

Thread Guy

Well, as for the underlying assets, you just have to trade them, right? Bitcoin, ETH, and SOL still look good structurally, on large timeframes. None of them broke weekly support. They all look very good. You should look at them and trade as if nothing happened.

That bottom wick might be a little too big, but I think you'll be very lucky if ETH drops below 4k again and Bitcoin—well, I don't know—below 110k. If we get any kind of fill on that wick, I think it's buying underlying assets because the cancellation rate on Bitcoin, ETH, and Solana isn't that crazy.

For these altcoins, you'll have to pretend that the very deep wick on perpetual futures simply doesn't exist. There's nothing you can do about it. I really think it's worth buying some altcoins on the spot that look like a bottom to the dollar and a bottom to Bitcoin and ETH.

Look at the altcoin pairs to BTC: ETH/BTC and SOL/BTC. Now is the time to pay attention, because if we are preparing for another parabolic wave in Bitcoin and ETH—and I think we are—then many of these altcoins could double from their current values in the next couple of months, or even triple or quadruple. So yes, I think you should pay attention to some of these altcoins.

The following mass washout events should occur before altcoin season begins. What about this narrative that's constantly repeated: "Who else has the money to buy?"

Oh, sorry, kid. Come here. Sorry, I need to move something. Give me 2 seconds. No, everything is fine. Everything is fine. Everything is fine. Devil. This is a goat, chat. This is my goat. Hey, he's showing off to us right now. Looks like he just beat me live. Sorry about that. I deal with junk on Facebook Marketplace.

No, everything is fine. You just beat me. That was cool. Really? What did I do? Well, it's like I stopped being lonely. This is cool. Okay, tell me this. I'll paraphrase: are all the people on Twitter who are bearish saying, "Who's left to buy?" Are there concerns that crypto Twitter's money has just been completely wiped out?

TraderMayne

In my opinion, it's better to ask, "Who's left to sell?" Who's selling now? It just doesn't make any sense after such an event. We just saw a lot of money move from weak hands to strong ones. That's what you just observed.

There are still many people ready to buy: people like me, people who have money, people who have other sources of income, people who know how to trade, and people who haven't been destroyed and ruined. I'm not saying there weren't smart people with a lot of money who were destroyed. I know many of them. But there are many people who have cash.

I always have "dry powder" with me. I always look for opportunities to buy on dips because I believe the long-term trend is still bullish. We still see people buying through other channels, such as digital asset treasuries. Sailor bought more. I mean, Sailor bought kind of weakly, I won't lie. He buys a little weakly. I think he's buying near the top.

Yes, but not at its peak at the moment. There are still people who have money. The money will continue to flow through the ETFs. It will still be a crime. This isn't even the craziest thing to happen in this bull market. We've had all sorts of crazy things happen to us.

Thread Guy

Do you even remember LIBRA at this point?

TraderMayne

No, I remember. In 3 weeks, if we trade above the all-time high, people will say, "How could you not buy this?"

The Crypto Twitter thing—I wrote about it the other day—has such a terrible signal-to-noise ratio. There are so many smart people on Twitter, but there are also so many who have no idea what they're talking about. Yet they speak with such confidence, have followers, and get engagement. You almost start to think, "Oh, maybe this person knows what they're doing." But no, that's not true. Most people don't even understand what they're doing or talking about.

Your best friend is your own analysis of the chart and the situation. I still think things are going well. I know many other people think the same way I do. There will be many people waiting for growth and continuing to believe in the bullish trend in the market. Believe me, I will never forget February 14, 2025.

Thread Guy

But if you've had a trading strategy since early October, or a trend or just a vision of how things would develop, should you consider Friday a reset? Are you completely reevaluating your trade, or do you think it's still within the range and trend—in other words, that it's the same trade?

TraderMayne

It all depends on the situation. For some altcoins, this collapse looked like they had just broken through a support level, but then they closed above it again. It's like if you held a spot position. Someone owns spot CRV, checks it once a month, and doesn't even know what happened on Friday. Do you understand what I mean?

The perpetual futures market is not everything. That's not all of them, right? It seems like it is because a lot of people on Crypto Twitter are talking about it, but most people are just holding altcoins on the spot and aren't even getting nervous about events like this.

So, if your thesis about a coin, project, or trend is still relevant, you're better off pretending that the wick didn't exist. And if you're that guy from BONK and still believe it's going to grow big, then that's just bad luck.

I think holding leverage for so long is unwise. You pay funding and take on the risk of liquidation, even if you have a divine entry and an 8-figure profit, right? I know he also has a spot position, but if you're so bullish on BONK, why not just buy the spot? Do you understand what I mean? Or at least, when you're in such a big profit, take profit and move it to spot. Maybe that's something he's learned now and won't do again.

By the way, there's another guy, White Whale. It seems he lost about $50 million on Hyperliquid. I'm sure guys like him or that BONK guy can recover. Bonkeye, they will return. Because they clearly know their trade. That must have hurt. They will figure it out.

I don't know, man. I just think a lot of people don't respect money the way they should. If you don't respect money, you will lose it. I just got off the phone with—I won't say who, of course—but my friend called me and said he lost 8 figures. One of the things that happened was that he lost about six just on liquidations.

Then he had all these big buy orders below that got filled and were liquidated on the same wick. Just think about it. I didn't even consider that. You place all these useless orders, for example, at 35 and 33, with a large volume, because you think the price will never fall that low. If it does, you catch the wick that reaches 21, and you get liquidated there too.

This is madness. And now it's at 40. Listen, this is crypto, you know? This is the risk you take with leverage because people only talk about the profits from it. "I opened a long position with $100,000. I opened a position for $1 million. I earned 10%. I'm in the black by $100,000." Nobody says that your losses can also be exponential, right?

Therefore, you should only use isolated margin unless you know exactly what you're doing. You don't have to keep your whole portfolio in one position or anything like that. Why do you need cross margin?

Well, you have more purchasing power, right? You might have $1 million in your account, but you don't want to invest everything. It just gives you more buying power, since your entire account acts as margin for the position. I think cross margin is very dangerous. You should only use isolated margin if you're working with large volumes.

I use cross margin myself, but I might have an account with $250,000, and I trade that entire account as a limit, you know. But if you keep all your eggs in one basket and trade your entire account with cross margin, something like this can completely knock you out of the game.

And this is cruel. I mean, there's no explanation for this. This is cruel. It was wild. People were just terribly angry. But you have 2 choices, anon: do you want to keep playing, or are you fucking quitting the game?

Thread Guy

I couldn't believe it when I heard about it. I never even imagined that you could place all these orders, have them filled, and then get liquidated. This is terrible, man.

TraderMayne

Yeah, that's fucking awful.

Thread Guy

This has happened to me before. You're learning, dude. You are learning. This is the sad part. Part of the reason I do my YouTube is to help, and I know I've helped a lot of people because I've gotten a lot of messages in the last few days.

I hope to help people avoid some of the mistakes I've already made because they're very expensive, right? But the only way you're going to learn some of these things is as a child: don't touch the stove. It is hot. The only way they'll learn is if they touch the damn stove, burn their finger, and you're like, "I told you so."

It's the same with leverage. You're going to get bitten one way or another, and you just hope it's a scratch and not a fatal blow.

TraderMayne

I think it's also really easy to get disillusioned with crypto right now because you see how stocks have jumped after we just died. We were destroyed—just like that, completely wiped out. The stocks jumped, and it was probably the biggest day of stock declines since April.

They jumped because Trump walked it back. I'm sure his team thought, "The market doesn't like this." I don't know what you think about it, but I don't think the Hyperliquid insider trader was Trump. People in the chat are saying the same thing. I think it was someone in Asia, dude.

Thread Guy

I don't think Trump is that sophisticated. We've seen the moves Trump's team has made in the crypto space. I don't think they're very smart. Don't you think Barron is cutting some longs on Hyperliquid?

TraderMayne

Perhaps. Maybe so. But I think it was someone in Asia who knew about this rare metals story because they've been talking about it in Asia for weeks.

Thread Guy

I heard that. This was public information in Asia.

TraderMayne

Apparently, the people in the chat don't read Asian newspapers like I do. I'm just kidding. I have my Chinese insider who leaks this information to me. He's like, "Bro, everyone knew about this."

I wouldn't be surprised. It just seems very coincidental that this happened right now. In my opinion, this is more realistic than these conversations about "World FI collapsed" and so on. I don't know.

I don't think it was Trump's team, right? These are just people who hate Trump and want to blame everything on him. I don't think he's that cunning. I'll say this: our quantum Daniel Chat knows him for sure, he works with counterparties. He is coming. He lives in Asia and said, "Yeah, I read about this crap in the newspapers." He didn't think it would lead to anything, so he didn't trade, but it was common knowledge. You can only imagine what the whales, insiders, and everyone else knew.

Besides, the argument against him being on Team Trump is this: the dude is just being carried around in shorts right now. So he’s either trying to go to jail to look less like an insider, or he really just doesn’t know anything.

Yes. It’s a game of shuffled cards, right? You’re playing a game where you have less information than other people. There are people who have more complex systems than you, and there are methods of concealment. It’s a game of shuffled cards, but all markets are like that. When GME happened and Melvin Capital went down the drain, hedge funds did that to each other, right? They held closed meetings, agreeing on how to drain the other one. This is the game we play.

It’s just that in crypto, you’re much closer to that because regulation hasn’t caught up yet. There’s a little more transparency in the data, and you see it: Why did they make this deal on Hyperliquid? Why did they do this to Hyperliquid? Where would you do that? Binance.

Can’t Binance just throw you off? There are dark pools and other things you can work with. Can’t Binance just say, “First, you have to go through KYC”? Secondly: “We don’t really trust this order, so fly to Dubai and go through additional verification. Maybe we’ll approve it, maybe we won’t.” Can they do that? Of course they can. They can do whatever they want.

This is madness. CZ is the king of some of this stuff, man. Binance has done a lot of shady things. There are a lot of shady players out there. I’m not even going to pretend that I know what the hell is going on with these guys making these moves. Fact. I think you just need to understand that, for most people, it’s a waste of time to speculate, point fingers, and write threads. How does that even help you make money? Just take Bitcoin, bro.

There are 2 ways to look at this. First, the fact that Bitcoin can fall 10% in an hour and alts can collapse by 80% means there’s still serious volatility in crypto, and aggressive moves like this can be expected.

The other side of this is: Damn it, traders, how have you not become exhausted and cynical? Haven’t you given up on it all at some point? Does it force moves like Friday? Even I went to bed on Friday night because I was so exhausted. I said, “Man, I’m tired, bro.”

Now I feel much better. I recovered, meditated, read books, and kept a journal. I feel fine now. But then I was thinking, “Damn, I’m so tired.” How can you not feel like someone cracked the whip? He’s like, “Get back to work. Get back on the stream.” Why don’t you just say, “Fuck that. I’ll trade options on Robinhood forever”?

I did that. In 2013 and 2014, I had an incredible amount of Bitcoin because it was worth nothing back then. It was so cheap. I signed up for Twitter in April 2014, joined at the peak of the bull market, and started buying all these coins being discussed on Twitter: BBQCoin, Feathercoin, and just dog shit.

Do you think the shit we have now is dog shit? Yes. Literally BBQCoin. What is this? It’s a barbecue coin. It was nothing.

There were a few players who had a lot of money. I won’t name names because some of them are still in the game. They had inside information about listings—who was going to go live—and they tweeted, “Hey, we know which coin is coming soon to MintPal or Cryptsy.” So I went and put all my damn Bitcoin into it.

They were sending messages, and I, the idiot, bought it. The price dropped sharply because they already had tokens there, knew about the listing, and instantly dumped them on you. I lost 100s, if not 1,000s, of Bitcoin doing this.

A thousand Bitcoin? Yes. But we’re talking about less than $100,000. Overall, it was terrible. I was so desperate because I didn’t know what I could cash out. I didn’t know there were market cycles. I didn’t know anything at all. I just had a bunch of Bitcoin.

I bought a few altcoins that went up a little bit, then everything went down to zero, and I thought, “The hell with this.” I quit and went away for 2 years. I was like, “Crypto is shit. It was a scam. What kind of clown show is this?”

7. Crypto Rewards Durability

Then I came back the next cycle. If I had stayed, I would be streaming this shit from my yacht somewhere in Monaco right now. But in 2017, I did quite well. Even though I still burned through a bunch of stuff, I thought, “Okay, I actually became a bear closer to the peak.”

Then I thought, “Okay, I think the market could go lower.” When it was at $6,000, it dropped to $3,000. Then I multiplied that money over and over again. I realized that the real advantage in this game is durability. It’s about never losing everything and accumulating money from cycle to cycle, unlike these quick money-making schemes.

A lot of the guys who get rich on memecoins and stuff will spend all their money, lose it, and blow it because they didn’t earn it. I’m not saying I necessarily earned more than them, but in many ways, it’s like a lottery ticket. Some people were lucky enough to hit the jackpot on a coin toss, and now they have $1,000,000.

I built this shit brick by brick over time. I focused on accumulating more Bitcoin each time at a lower price, then selling it at a higher price and buying more again when the price dropped. These moves are still shocking, but I’m not worried because I own Bitcoin. This is exactly what concerns me and what I think most of you should care about.

Everything else you do in crypto should be a tool to get more money and Bitcoin.

Crypto shit is so insidious. The way the market moves is designed simply to fool you. There’s a post like this—it seems to be from Evan, but I don’t know who started it—and the gist is that at the end of the cycle, the memecoin guys will transfer the money somewhere else, and then we’ll take everything for ourselves. That just happened, brutally, right in the middle of the cycle.

Again, it’s like winning the lottery or hitting the jackpot at the casino and thinking, “I’ll be back. I can do it again.” Most likely, no. Most people who hit the jackpot on memecoins won’t repeat it.

I had a friend who rode SafeMoon last cycle. He was a regular guy, not a crypto guy, but he said, “Dude, I bought SafeMoon because it was a newbie theme.” I said, “Dude, SafeMoon? What the hell is this shit?” But he was a rookie and made a 7-figure sum from it.

I said, “Sell. Just sell right now. Take the money.” He said, “No, dude. It’s still going up.” I told him, “I’m telling you, sell it. You just got lucky. You won the lottery. Don’t set foot in that damn casino again. Go outside, thank God, and enjoy your life.”

Many people learn this the hard way. They think what they did can be repeated, even though it can’t. It was more luck and good timing than skill. I’m not saying there’s no skill in memecoins and deep trading. There are people who know what they’re doing. But the vast majority don’t even understand what they’re doing.

The same goes for margin trading. A lot of people get this false sense of confidence because they buy every dip and it works. Look, for example, at James Wynn. Is he the smartest and best margin trader of all time? Then the market changes direction, he keeps buying the dip, and it doesn’t work anymore.

There are a billion examples like that. I think you need to have a certain level of self-reflection to admit to yourself: Am I really good at this, or was I just really lucky and the timing was right?

Friday, maybe Saturday—it doesn’t matter—I felt kind of sad. I thought, “Okay, let’s watch a movie.” I wanted to watch The Game of Thrones, but then I thought, “This is a cool movie, but it’s crap. It’s not interesting.” So instead I watched The Player, which kind of sucks, but there are a few cool scenes in it.

There’s a scene near the end where he says, “You were $2,500,000 ahead. You didn’t sell. Everyone knows what you do when you’re $2,500,000 ahead. You buy a house, put the money in bonds to pay your taxes, and then you’re like, ‘Go to hell.’ You want me to do that? Go to hell. You want me to work in a store? Go to hell.”

What if you make a net $1,000,000 after taxes in crypto by the end of this cycle? Salsa Tequila wrote a post about this too. He said, “$5,000,000 is ‘go to hell, all of you’ money.”

Everyone was like, “What are you even talking about?” They laughed at him. Why were they laughing at him? They made fun of him, but most of the people who made fun of him will never see $5,000,000 in their lives. That’s just a fact. $5,000,000 is a lot of fucking money.

If you make $1,000,000, it all depends on where you live and how old you are. I think the biggest advantage for many people right now is that you’re young and have no dependents. You don’t have crazy expenses.

The first thing you shouldn’t do is gradually increase your lifestyle expenses. Don’t buy a car you can’t afford or move into a home you can’t afford. The biggest thing that makes this question difficult to answer is that I belong to the camp that thinks the American financial pyramid—the stock market, the housing market—I think we’re in for a very ugly 2026 and 2027.

TraderMayne

We talked about this in the last video. Gold is traded as is, everything is traded as is. I don’t think that’s good.

My main concern is my whole adult life, since I was 18. When I turned 18, the crash of 2008 happened. That’s how damn old I am.

Thread Guy

Are you serious? Good. But yes, I know. Don’t even start. Don’t say “damn.” Don’t say “damn.” Good.

TraderMayne

When my entire adult life began, the mindset was: just invest in the S&P 500. No matter what, you’ll make money. It’s always growing. I don’t know how true that is anymore.

Can it go higher than it is now? Yes. But what if we have a multiyear recession during which it falls by 30–40%? If you’re 20 years old, that’s a different matter. You say, “You know what? I’ll just buy when it drops because I believe in America.” I believe in America in the long run.

But this is the most difficult thing.

Thread Guy

My question to you about the “basement deal” is: what do you want to hold? The fact that it’s becoming a reality is a little scary, to be honest.

We’ve talked about this a little bit, but if you’re right and all this shit is just going to go down in a straight line, a dollar is worth nothing. The result is quite bleak.

So how do you want to start? Because even if you’re not a complete pessimist, but you believe, “Yeah, I generally think this is all on good terms and it’s going to go down,” and I believe in a “basement bargain,” what do you want to start buying? Is it just Bitcoin?

TraderMayne

I think it’s worth taking a few steps. I’ve discussed this with some very smart people, and I really think it’s worth holding Bitcoin.

By the way, I believe that Bitcoin is superior to the dollar and gold. People say, “Gold has grown so much.” From now on, it will surpass gold.

I think in the long term—I don’t know exactly how far from here—but the thing is, gold is at its peak right now, while the purchasing power of your dollar has just fallen below the floor since gold last jumped. So you’re not at as big an advantage as you think.

I don’t think it’s a bad idea to hold gold—physical gold, actually own it. With Bitcoin, I still believe in the United States, so I don’t think having U.S. dollars is terrible.

I also don’t think it’s a bad idea to diversify your money. Have some Swiss francs, have different currencies.

Thread Guy

I don’t even know what that means.

TraderMayne

In other countries, for example, you own Swiss francs. It’s their money, like the euro in Europe.

Thread Guy

Yes, they have Swiss francs.

TraderMayne

Own something like Swiss francs, have maybe some euros. I think investing in Asia is very smart. And if you can afford a house or land, I think that’s a good investment too.

Thread Guy

I know, it’s boring and all, dude. But my grandfather always said that land is no longer being produced. Just like Bitcoin, land is in limited supply.

So listen, if things get really scary, and you have your own house, your own car, and your expenses are low, I think that puts you in a position to tell everyone to go to hell.

I really think that puts you in a winning position to take advantage of the outcome, no matter how it all ends.

TraderMayne

Because even if we enter a recession, it won’t be forever. Eventually, we will reach the bottom and go up again. You just have to stay in the game, you know what I mean?

Thread Guy

Hell, I just got laughed at for those comments about Swiss francs, by the way. They’re destroying me in chat right now. I just got eaten alive in the chat.

TraderMayne

I wasn’t trying to laugh while you were talking, but I was just being ripped apart here.

Thread Guy

Yes. I never—yes. Okay, continue.

TraderMayne

I think it’s complicated. Listen, I’m not even 100% sure what I’m going to do.

For example, I have a lot of cash. I’m thinking, should I just hold on to the dollars?

I get calls from every banking and investment company in the world. They’re like, “Bro, let’s throw some cash in. Let’s do this. What a great time to buy.”

And I’m like, “I don’t know. I don’t know. I kind of like the idea of being a little liquid right now, bro. I’m not going to lie.”

Thread Guy

Yes. It’s strange because I also think you’re right in the sense that we know this crap can’t—I mean, it could go straight down, but it’s unlikely to work that way.

You can believe that the dollar is going to become worthless, that stocks are going to crash and all that, but you can still buy on dips, trade on bounces, buy on dips, trade on bounces.

I haven’t been in this business as long as you have. I think I was 6 in 2008. But everything is unfolding. These aren’t 15-minute candles, right? These are more likely multiyear trades.

TraderMayne

Yes, but the ending is a little creepy, you know?

Thread Guy

Well, has America peaked?

TraderMayne

I think so. Or close to that, right? It may have another relapse. I think America might have another breakthrough. And then what? A type of jerk thanks to AI.

Thread Guy

I don’t know. We’re going to get a boost from AI, you know, over—I don’t know, dude.

As you age, your appetite for risk changes. Obviously, it depends on how and when you get more money. But I’m focused on the house, the wife, the kids, all that crap. I’m no longer in the era of my epic gambling.

TraderMayne

I think for a lot of you who are young—

Thread Guy

Yes, bro.

TraderMayne

I wish I was as financially literate and knowledgeable at your age.

Thread Guy

How old are you?

TraderMayne

Twenty-two. Twenty-three.

Thread Guy

Twenty-three. But you left.

TraderMayne

When I was 23, bro, I worked at an accounting firm for $35,000 a year.

Thread Guy

Damn. Okay. You’re an accountant. Do you have a CPA?

TraderMayne

I am a CPA, a certified public accountant. I’m completely serious.

Thread Guy

What the hell?

TraderMayne

I was getting a degree in accounting. I worked in an accounting firm. My salary was $33,000 Canadian dollars a year.

Thread Guy

That’s like 10 U.S. dollars. This is madness.

TraderMayne

Yes. Before taxes, bro. Before taxes.

Thread Guy

Yes.

TraderMayne

Every weekend. Although it was 2010, the purchasing power was still crap. I couldn’t afford anything. I had enough money for beer, and I just got drunk every weekend.

Thread Guy

Damn.

TraderMayne

I didn’t think about earning a living until I was almost 30. So I think your best asset is time and the fact that you are generally up to date.

Maybe you have some liquidity, and there will be an opportunity to use it to the fullest, even if we enter a recession. If you are alive, financially literate, and have some cash, opportunities will emerge for generations to come.

Thread Guy

Okay, can I ask a question? This is unprecedented—simply unprecedented. I think the coming years will be crazy.

Can we have some pessimistic things? Well, not exactly pessimistic, but rather bearish, because I’ve seen enough negativity this weekend.

TraderMayne

Okay, I have 2 examples. First, I was asked this, and I had no answer: when all stocks can be traded 24/7 with online liquidity, who the hell will buy our altcoins?

Why would anyone buy these altcoins, except, of course, for trading platforms and all that kind of stuff? Who will buy our alts if you can trade stocks 24/7 online? No KYC, no jurisdictions, nothing.

Is this an existential risk for crypto?

Thread Guy

Yes. For altcoins, definitely.

I think the overall altcoin market cap has changed dramatically this cycle because of Pump.fun and the dilution caused by the sheer volume of these damn coins. We no longer tell stories about these coins because there are too many of them.

Something new—a new trend every month. I think retail buyers—who buys them? Retail should come and buy our assets.

To your point, they can go to Robinhood. They can speculate on Polymarket. They could be doing a bunch of other things instead of trading these damn illiquid, crappy alts that they don’t even know how to start working with.

Their entire experience with crypto was terrible. So yes, there is an absolute risk that the average person will simply become indifferent to altcoins.

TraderMayne

But at the same time, our market seems to be finding a way—

Thread Guy

Facts.

TraderMayne

It’s just going crazy every time. There’s always a new financial pyramid that comes along, and you’re like, “Okay, it can’t get any more absurd than that.” And then this is what happens.

There were times when you woke up in the morning and thought, “Fuck it. Today I will be a bear.” I’m getting excited about the idea of playing for a downturn right now.

Thread Guy

Have you ever woken up and felt like a real bear?

TraderMayne

No. I’m very optimistic about life, opportunities, and crypto in general.

But I think it’s happened to me in the last 5 years because of where I am now financially, and because of getting married and all that stuff. I’m happy. I’m a happy guy.

Thread Guy

Crypto prices on Friday, man.

TraderMayne

If only I weren’t so attached to Twitter, because that’s my job. I post as if it were a normal day. Do you understand what I mean?

But I remember being that guy whose well-being depended on the numbers on the screen. The number is good—I’m fine. The number is bad—it really sucks for me, man.

That’s something that I hope you’ll eventually grow out of, because you’ll realize that these numbers aren’t real. There is no number at which you will finally become happy.

Imagine if you had said to yourself 2 years ago, “Bitcoin will cost $100,000.” That’s such crap.

Thread Guy

Yes. You would be jumping for joy, right? You would say, “Dude, I’m going to be so rich. I will have all this.”

TraderMayne

Bitcoin is now worth over $100,000, and people say, “The industry is over. We lost. It’s all fiction.”

We’re getting legislation regarding stablecoins. Stablecoin developers, altcoins, and crypto people are currently in the White House talking to Trump. And still there are people who say, “Khan Industries [?].”

Thread Guy

We lost. It’s all fiction.

TraderMayne

You’re like, “Bro, ask yourself: 2 years ago, if all this had happened, what would you have said then?”

That’s why people sometimes get too hung up on details. I’m not saying there wasn’t some craziness on Friday, but you have to step back a little and say, “Man, look how far we’ve come, even in the last year.”

Thread Guy

Aha.

This is a fact. Sometimes I wake up in the morning and think, “No, I’m a bear today.” I guess I identify as a bear—not even because of the price, but simply because the hell with everything. I just wake up and think, “No, this is complete crap.”

Then I force myself back to, “No, no, no, no. We believe. We are optimists.” But on Saturday morning I woke up and thought, “Damn, I’m a pessimist. Malcolm, wipe that moronic smile off your face. There is nothing to be happy about here.” I guess I’m feeling pessimistic today.

I have friends—very famous, very rich guys in the crypto world—who don’t give a damn about crypto anymore. They say, “It’s outlived its time.” They’re more interested in other things. I understand. It’s easy for some people, but it’s hard for me. I spent my whole life on this, bro. You know what I mean?

How can you be pessimistic? It simply doesn’t make a profit in this market except for short periods of time. You have to be a pessimist at the right moment and for the right amount of time, and then you have to switch back to optimism.

Some of my dumbest friends just buy Bitcoin, work regular jobs, and now they have 50 or 60 Bitcoin. I’m like, “You’re better than 99% of the people on Twitter,” and they’re like, “I’m not even on Twitter.” They just say, “I think Bitcoin is cool.”

It all depends on perspective, right? Your perception is your reality. I don’t know. I’ve found that my life is much better when I’m optimistic.

TraderMayne

I guess the price has dropped, so I’m a pessimist. The price has dropped—I can buy it cheap.

Thread Guy

Yes. Yes. Steeply.

TraderMayne

I am, and I love crypto with all my heart. Although sometimes it’s fun to be a pessimist at the lows. Ask the keyboard monkey.

Thread Guy

Yes. Sometimes it’s fun to be a little pessimistic when you see red candles and euphoric when everything is green. It’s just fun. This is exactly how Satoshi intended it.

TraderMayne

Okay, last question. Let’s say there’s a magical, mystical finite number of Bitcoin after which you would never sell, and you’ve reached that number. When we go to 140, are you selling to buy back lower? How do you play the end of a cycle, especially with your position of “I will never sell my stack”?

Thread Guy

My “never-sell” stack is serious. I think Bitcoin could be worth $100 million. I think Bitcoin could be worth $1 million someday. If you have 100 Bitcoin, that’s $100 million. I think 100 Bitcoin, if you have it, is a future for generations—a kind of citadel forever.

Anything beyond that is probably something you can play with. I might have 120 Bitcoin: Bitcoin that I’m just collecting, and a portfolio that I’m actively speculating with in the market. At the end of the cycle, if I did well, I’ll buy more Bitcoin. Hopefully, at a minimum, I’ll move it to cold storage and just start the game again.

When you reach big numbers, it becomes easier to make more substantial money. You won’t get to the point where you’re risking 50% of your portfolio. You’re playing with 20%.

But you have to have one, two, five, ten, or 100. These are levels, in my opinion, like in the old Mortal Kombat games. No, you’re too young for that. You have to make your way to the main villain at the very top.

For me, the main villain is 100 Bitcoin. If you want to be in the citadel forever, save up 100 Bitcoin. Most people will never do that, but if you have one or two, who knows what they will become in the future?

I don’t think about it. This money isn’t real to me. It doesn’t exist.

TraderMayne

I like that you’re not even fake. You’re real.

The last thing I want to ask is this: You’re optimistic right now, and that’s cool. I think your target for Bitcoin is $140,000—maybe that’s the final stage. Is that correct?

Thread Guy

I think at least $140,000 or $150,000. Maybe we’ll jump even higher, but let’s stop at $150,000 for now. I’ll be happy with $150,000.

TraderMayne

Let’s say we hit $150,000 on November 1. How do you proceed in this cycle? Is this altcoin season? Is this the end? What do you do when Bitcoin reaches $150,000?

8. The Cycle Exit Plan

Thread Guy

When Bitcoin is exploding and soars to, say, $175,000, then starts trading around $150,000 and seems to go sideways for a while, I think it’s worth looking at what ETH is doing. The moment ETH starts going crazy, it’s like the death knell of the cycle. You might think, “Okay, we’ve got about a month left. Let’s make as much money as possible.”

I think in the next 3 months we’ll see new all-time highs for Bitcoin and ETH, and I think we’ll see some kind of altcoin season. I don’t know what that will look like, given how different altcoins are from what they were last cycle and the cycle before that, because there are just so many of them.

I believe all of this will happen within the next 3–6 months. When ETH takes off, it’s just the end. If ETH goes from $5,000 or $6,000 to $10,000 in a week, I would sell everything, get out of there, and run for cover.

TraderMayne

But what if we’re just catching up to gold? Why couldn’t it go to $20,000? Why do you have low goals if you think it will happen so violently and quickly?

Thread Guy

It’s possible, right? But what if it doesn’t? What if it goes to $18,000? At what point do you leave? Do you understand what I mean?

TraderMayne

You should have a level at which you’ll lock in some of the profit. Imagine you think Bitcoin will go to $150,000. You say, “I’m going for $150,000.” What if it reaches $145,000 and you don’t sell, and then it’s already at $135,000? You say, “Well, it’s going to go up,” and now it’s at $125,000. At what point are you going to sell?

Thread Guy

Three things: market structure, a realistic chart, and your portfolio goal—how much money were you hoping to make? Have you approached it? Are you anywhere nearby? Start capturing some of the profits.

Your price target may be overshot, your portfolio target may be overshot, or the market structure may break before it reaches one of those levels. But if you use all 3 together, you’ll at least take some money off the table and be able to buy back in again.

This is another thing people seem to think: “Oh, I sold the spot.” You can buy again at the pump. You might think, “The pump looks good. I’m buying it back.”

If you sold, it doesn’t mean you’re out of the market until the bear market comes. Buy back. You’re wrong. We’ve set a new high. There’s some crazy news, and Trump and China just made a crazy trade deal. Buy back. What’s stopping you?

TraderMayne

Aren’t we tired of Trump saying there are tariffs and then there aren’t? Is he losing influence on the market, or is it just not working that way?

Thread Guy

He’s the president, and the market will always react to his words. I’m getting a little tired of this, man. It’s fucking annoying. I don’t like trading in this news-sensitive market where he might blurt something out on Friday.

It’s always on Friday. We’re like, “Okay, our crypto assets are going to die.” Then he’ll cancel everything on Sunday, and the stock market won’t even feel the drop because the price will jump back up. This is complete nonsense. It’s annoying.

But I don’t think he has much other leverage. Do you understand what I mean? The US economy is not in as good shape as the market wants to show.

There’s a view that the stock market is forward-looking, but there’s another view: What’s really driving this rally is a handful of companies all investing in each other. This is the funniest thing.

Life is not going well for the average American right now. It’s the same in Canada. No matter how much they say, “We’re optimistic about all this. Everything’s fine,” inflation is still a problem. They say it’s slowing down a little and that they lowered the rate, but I think the average person is thinking, “Gasoline is still too expensive. Groceries are still too expensive. I can’t fucking afford rent.”

TraderMayne

Dude, I paid $7.50 for a 16-ounce iced Americano this morning.

Thread Guy

Yes. Yes. This is madness.

TraderMayne

It wasn’t even tasty. This is madness. I told you I went to the hockey game. I think I spent $60 on 2 beers and a bag of popcorn.

I’m just like, thank God I’m in a position where I can say, “This is expensive,” but still buy it. The average person isn’t living in this reality at all.

I’m buying a house for my brother. He’s a teacher, his wife also works, and they can’t postpone anything. This is cruel.

Thread Guy

Yes, it’s a purchase.

TraderMayne

That’s what worries me about what’s happening in America. I feel like the music in the game of musical chairs is about to stop. And then what?

If you think civil strife, violence, and crime are terrible now, imagine what they’ll be like during a recession.

Thread Guy

Do you drink coffee?

TraderMayne

Yes.

Thread Guy

Do you make it, or do you just—

TraderMayne

I was making it for a while, but our coffee machine broke.

Thread Guy

So you just order from Starbucks or somewhere else now?

TraderMayne

At Tim Hortons.

Thread Guy

No, dude. Tim Hortons has gone to shit. I won’t say why, but people should know. Going to Tim Hortons is no longer possible. They completely ruined everything. A Canadian icon has been destroyed. Ovva.

TraderMayne

Okay, the chat is up to date. I didn’t know. I didn’t say anything. This is madness. I had no idea about this at all.

I don’t really follow what you’re doing there, on the other side. I’m just a 2-hour flight north of you. This is madness.

Thread Guy

We are so close to each other. You're the best, dude. Come by anytime.

TraderMayne

No, no, I won't come. But feel free.

Thread Guy

Is there anything you want to sum up?

TraderMayne

That was cool. Yeah, guys, listen up. I think the most important thing you can do right now is stop reading Twitter. Stop quietly going into chat rooms, looking at old account balances, and doing this retrospective.

I know you really want to say, “I had so much money. I need to get back to this. Twitter says this is what's happening. Here's what I'm going to do. This guy said this, that guy said that.” If you were successful early in the cycle and were making money—whether it was margin trading or memecoins—it will still work.

You got hit. You lost. The best thing you can do now is get back into action as soon as possible. What you definitely shouldn't do is try to chase some imaginary numbers that no longer exist.

Just assess your current situation. How much money do I have? What do I have? What coins do I hold? Do I need to trim my portfolio to something more concentrated? Then start making decisions based on what you have now—not on what happened last week or what happened 2 weeks ago. What do you have right now?

Opportunities will not disappear. Volatility is not going away. God forbid, prices will still rise, so you can still make more money in this bull market. The sooner you do it—open a new wallet or create a new account—the sooner you get back in the game, and the better it will pay off, especially in the coming weeks and months.

The faster, the better. Of course, if you need time, then take it, damn it. But I honestly don't think now is the time to leave the market. I think it's just the opposite. I think now is the time to really focus.

The sooner you get back in the game, the better. And yes, just put last week out of your mind. It's over. It happened. It doesn't matter if someone comes out and says, “Oh my God, Barron Trump was a Hyperliquid insider.” This won't change anything for you and your P&L. Absolutely nothing.

The sooner you can get back on track, the better, I think. Come on, guys, get down to business. Act.

Thread Guy

Are you participating in that Synthetix trading competition?

TraderMayne

No, I don't even know what that is.

Thread Guy

Why? What is it?

TraderMayne

They just asked me to take part in it. It's kind of like a million-dollar trading competition. They asked me to take part in this.

Thread Guy

Well, let me see. Kate tweeted me about it. Let me tell you. Wait. Synthetix. Yes, they have this million-dollar trading competition.

TraderMayne

And DJ Ping works for them?

Thread Guy

What happened?

TraderMayne

He tweeted the ticker SNX.

Thread Guy

Yeah, I guess he could have bought that coin or something, but what do we think about that coin? The chart looks optimistic right now. It jumped up sharply. It would have been cool to buy it 2 days ago.

TraderMayne

It would be nice, right?

Thread Guy

Yes. Again, I believe that opportunities will be everywhere. Look at Zcash, right? Look at ZEC. It's just tearing up. It didn't even feel the fall.

So there are plenty of opportunities now. By the way, how is this possible? What the hell is going on with this Zcash? I mean, how is it not madness? What the hell? Crazy bet.

TraderMayne

Perhaps many Bitcoin owners realize that keeping all their financial transactions in a public ledger is not such a good idea. Something weird is going on there, man.

Thread Guy

A loyal fan base, but it just shows that there is still room for improvement in crypto. While we had this crazy event the other day, we'll also have crazy events in a different direction. You just have to be careful. You have to be focused. Money can still be made.

How much credit do you think Kobe has here? How much influence does Kobe still have left after the Zod tweets?

TraderMayne

I don't know if it actually affects the price of the coin, but Cobie definitely has influence. That's a fact. The ZEC movement has been brewing for months. The chart was bullish.

So there will be other coins that will do the same thing, right? Asynchronous to the rest of the market. You're like, “What the hell? Why is this growing?” Your job is to figure it out.

Thread Guy

This is crazy. Nabal[?] has influence over these big 25. This is wild. N[?] has real influence. This is crazy. Have you ever met Nabal[?]?

TraderMayne

Never. I think he would like what you're doing.

Thread Guy

Okay, I'll let you go, man. That was cool. That's fire. You should stream.

TraderMayne

Yeah, it will be. Stream more often. The stream was fire. I joined because people were asking me to stream. I'm like, “Bro, let's let someone else stream. I'll do my work on Monday. I'll invite them on Monday. Let someone else do it.”

Thread Guy

I think you did it right. We'll be back, guys. We'll be back with another one. Plus, you have this millennial movement on YouTube, like the non-CT movement. It's crazy.

TraderMayne

I know. YouTube is awesome, bro. I love my YouTube subscribers. I love streams because they're so interactive, right? It's a little different than just uploading videos.

But yeah, I'm making YouTube videos, man. I've got over 1,000 of them.

Thread Guy

Seriously?

TraderMayne

Yeah. If you want to learn how to trade, I have a whole section on learning. What's not there, man? I've been doing this for a long time.

Thread Guy

Are you technically a millennial?

TraderMayne

I don't even know. I think I'm Gen X, but I'm not sure.

Thread Guy

No, I'm a millennial. I'm not really—

TraderMayne

That was a slur. That was a bad question. Sorry. I don't want to know. You set me up.

Thread Guy

Okay, man. You're a real pro. Love you, man. See you soon. Bye.

Chat lady, that was gross, guys. That was ugly. That was unfair.