TraderMayne：Bitcoin 价格目标、最佳交易建议、山寨季及更多 | TG 播客

We missed you, man. How are you doing?

Oh, you're dumb, twin. Sorry about that. Perfectly. How is it, dude? I'm just fighting COVID in the big 2025, as usual. Other than that, man, it's good. I can't complain. Bitcoin set an all-time high yesterday, so what are we even talking about, brother?

COVID in 2025? That sounds like a lack of skills, man. This is a bit crazy.

You have to remember that I'm old. I am one of those elderly people in the risk group who need to be protected.

I know. COVID in 2025 is terrible. But, man, welcome back. It's been a long time, man. I think the last time you were with me was before the Breakout announcement. That's crazy.

We used Breakout on stream back in December 2024. Congratulations, dude. This is fucking crazy.

Yes, that's pretty crazy.

I've known about this, of course, for some time. We had to keep it a secret for obvious reasons, but we are very excited. Kraken is such a great company, a true veteran in this field. I consider Kraken a real platform for crypto enthusiasts.

You know Arjun—you had him. He's just a handsome guy.

He is a real pro. Great guy. Incredible pro. So we're really excited, man. This is pretty crazy. Nineteen months, dude. From zero to exit. Nineteen months. Pretty crazy.

Why aren't more reputable crypto traders creating products?

If you look back at when I launched Breakout, there was me, CryptoCred, and Abe Trade—we were all veterans. CryptoCred has an even larger audience than I do. We have never cheated anyone, but we were told that we were frauds. They're like, “Oh my God, this…”

I think part of the problem is that Crypto Twitter is full of idiots. What I learned is: just don't listen to people on Twitter. You don't need to do this, and you shouldn't. They are not the industry they think they are.

But it's hard work, man. I have calls every day around 8:00 a.m. Five days a week, I have to be in touch with different team members and different departments. It's fun and challenging, and I've learned a lot.

When you reach a level in trading, at least like mine, where I can trade whenever I want, it feels like going back to school. You're there on the morning flyers and all that.

Oh yeah, dude. Every Monday.

We hold a corporate flyer every day right before the stream.

That is good. It's almost like I don't mind routine. Part of me says I don't want to wake up at 8:00, but routine is good for you. I feel like people need structure, and this has added a lot of structure to my life.

If you even think about starting a business, it's a ton of fun. Even if it doesn't work out, you'll learn a lot.

What's the story with Cred? How did he become so popular on Crypto Twitter?

Cred used to constantly write to me in direct messages about trading, price life hacks and stuff. We talked often. That's how we became friends. We were just chatting about trading.

He is one of, if not the smartest person I know—well, that I actually know in real life. An incredibly smart guy.

In the beginning, he created these university-level educational materials for trading. If you go to his YouTube, he doesn't post anything anymore, but he had 40- or 50-minute presentations with PowerPoint slides. If you wanted to learn about a topic in trading, it was a whole course, all for free.

I think one thing about Twitter is that if you're really smart and you post cool stuff, you get noticed. He was one of the first to do that. He started with me in 2016 or 2017.

And then he became your buddy, and you launched Breakout together.

Oh yeah, bro. We went to the 2018 Bitcoin Crypto Conference in Vegas. That was the first conference I ever went to. I remember exactly how I withdrew 2 bitcoins from a Bitcoin ATM to play blackjack with Luke Martin, another old-school player.

It can't be.

At that time, it was around $10,000. Of course, I drained it all. Imagine losing $200,000 playing blackjack right now. I'd rather kill myself, damn it.

Well, in Minecraft, but yes. Luke Martin is in the chat. He said he witnessed that ATM transfer. He remembers, bro.

One of them didn't work, and I was scribbling tweets from the company. I wrote, “I'm a trader, guys. I have 7,000 followers. I will destroy you. Give me my money.”

That's right. Withdrawing 2 bitcoins is madness.

Yes, dude. Wow. This is like something out of a movie.

Congratulations to Luke Martin. I was just on his stream—a stream about Pump.fun. Luke is my boyfriend. This is cool.

Listen, I think it was on Sunday's stream. We exposed those who were publicly very bearish right before that breakout. The Ponzi Trader got caught, and I… I didn't want to do this to you. I didn't do that.

But in the chat, this $98,000 mythical prediction for BTC was mentioned, which fortunately did not come true. Now it seems everything is going well for us.

It's been a long time since you came to share your thoughts about the market. So where are we now in the macro, especially with BTC? How are you feeling?

This is the thing, bro. Last week, when we were at $108,000, I broadly outlined a couple of scenarios. One of them was taking liquidity from below, but the other was the upward movement that we saw. I just didn't have time to enter the long.

My system showed a short, the same as Anom's, because we trade very similarly. I thought, “Okay, we had that liquidity fundraiser back in August. So if we go back to that high, that's a short.”

Purely mechanically, forget about the chart. Forget about the ticker. For me, it's a mechanical short nine times out of ten. So I went in and lost a little money.

Well, it happens. That could work, right?

Then I would have humiliated everyone, but that didn't happen. I am ready to accept my failures. I make mistakes all the time. This is one of the misconceptions people have about Twitter. It seems like everyone is just making fun of them.

Anom says, “Premonition.” We have reached the peak. We made the top.

Look, man, Anom is a good trader. Love him or hate him, he is a very good trader and knows when he is wrong. Now he is bullish because his bearish forecast was wrong.

You all have to get to the point where you can see both sides of the market. Otherwise, you won't have the resilience, because once the market finally turns around, many of those who only know how to buy will give away all the money they made in this bull market.

I spoke out. This bounce is somewhat interesting to me. Basically, I don't really want to see the price go to 18. Then I think we could roll back all the way to $108,000. I know it's funny to say “all the way to $108,000.” We are still above $100,000.

I'm inclined to think that somewhere between $90,000—I know, that sounds crazy—and where we are now, we won't fall below that big range that we've been in for the last few months.

This range, whether we break out now or break out in a month, is the bottom range before the next parabolic move up, which for me is $150,000 and maybe more.

I know this might sound confusing. There is a possibility that the price could go back to $100,000. I'm not saying it will, but on a large timeframe it would still look quite normal. I am convinced that we are very close to the next major upward movement.

If you want a comparison, compare the kind of consolidation we're in now with April of last year, right? There was a multi-month consolidation. We are currently in the process of doing this. Whether we break out now or have another period of range-bound volatility, I think the next move up will be big. I think $150,000 is a very conservative target for this push.

Dude, if we go back to $90,000, there will be panic in the streets, and you go all in on the meatball.

Indeed, if we are blessed with another chance to buy below $100,000, I'm not saying it will happen, but why not be prepared for it? It can happen. Anything can happen, and you could get hit by a bus in GTA tomorrow.

I would invest all the free cash I have below $100,000 if we were lucky. If not, then to hell with it. We are going higher. This is a win-win option. You can't lose.

How have you allocated your assets now? What percentage of your portfolio is currently in risky assets?

I recently had a liquidity event. This literally changed everything for me. Before this event, I would say that more than half of my fortune was in Bitcoin—well, liquid assets.

Now that has changed, as my liquid assets have increased slightly. I bought more Bitcoin with some of that money. I bought, you know, about 112 or something like that at the beginning of September.

I'm still quite risk-averse in terms of Bitcoin and stocks. I'm not exactly a fan of altcoins. I have some ETH. I have a little SOL. I invested in some BNB. Today I bought some CAKE.

Dude, I'm all for CAKE too.

It looks like CAKE could double in size.

Wow, dude. I've been talking about CAKE all day today.

Yeah, really?

Oh yes. Yes, it looks good. The chart looks very good. If we are currently in a small BNB season, then CZ is the most diabolical genius on the planet.

If you need proof, just look at the BNB chart. It doesn't fall.

It's just that it doesn't fall.

So I'm always willing to take a little risk with BNB. Of course, you have to be careful when dealing with CZ. But yes, I like CAKE. I like it. BNB looks really good.

So yes, I'm still taking a big risk. I'm not going to leave the markets just yet. I think the fourth quarter will be bullish. I've been saying this for a long time.

I can't believe you said that, man. This is cool.

I'll come back to that. Okay, I have a life question for you. Come on, teach me. I don't know how much money you have. I think you're in the clear for some time now. You made good money on crypto, but what do you do? What's the first thing you do after a major liquidity event?

Nothing. In my opinion, if you have a big liquidity event, you can buy something for yourself. Of course, you want to do something nice for yourself—maybe buy a nice car or a nice watch. But the vast majority of that money—let’s say you made $5–10 million—I think you should sit on it for at least 30–60 days, maybe longer.

You don’t want to hold dollars because you’re losing your purchasing power. But 30–60 days isn’t the end of the damn world, okay? First of all, you don’t want to do something stupid and impulsive. I’ve seen people pull crazy amounts out of crypto, and then they’re like, “Oh, my financial advisor or my friend told me to invest in this thing,” and suddenly all that hard work is gone. Maybe you’ve now frozen that money. Maybe you invested it in something that isn’t working well.

So I think a minimum of 30 days is necessary. Just enjoy it. Tell yourself, “Okay, I did it. This money is real now.” I don’t care if you take it out of crypto or not. Just enjoy this for a minute, okay? That’s the first thing to do, depending on the size of the success.

You have to take care of your family. I think this is very important. Take care of your mom. I don’t want to see you driving a damn Lamborghini and flaunting your success if your mom is still working, bro. That’s why I think a lot of these crypto guys and influencers live this Miami lifestyle and stuff. It’s like, does your mom work? This is madness.

They probably didn’t fit it into their budget of $7,000 a month, I guess. But take care of your family, enjoy yourself, and definitely buy yourself something. When I closed the deal with Kraken, the first thing I did was buy my business partner a watch. I bought myself a small, nice watch—nothing crazy, something simple. This is an RM 67-02.

I won’t name the price, but people can search for it themselves.

I was just about to ask for the price tag on it. We’ll take a look after the chat. Someone remember this. I’ll ask at the end of the stream. What was it called? We’ll take a look. Cool.

We had to deal with this.

I was just curious, because I feel like I have some success coming my way in the near future. But, on the topic of public trading, Ansem is being vilified right now for this tweet. Seriously, he’s just being destroyed.

What I respect about Ansem is that most people—most of these traders on Crypto Twitter—hedge everything. They make a bearish post, but it’s a weak post, and they add, “Although, I don’t know,” at the end, or insert a bullish argument. Then, no matter which way we go, they act like that was their position from the beginning. You forget because I don’t follow every tweet from every account. It’s too much to keep track of.

I respect Anom's call because he was very clear: “I am bearish.” It wasn’t, “I don’t know, though.” It wasn’t, “I’m changing my views.” It was, “I’m as bearish as possible.” And then Gat says we've peaked. He knew it would go viral, but he seems to have become quite bullish since then. He writes about $600,000.

Is it difficult to change your view and position yourself correctly after you make a public mistake, even if it’s a mistake on a low timeframe?

There are several points here. The reason I know Anom is trading is because he can make a clear directional prediction: “We do this.” This is my biased view, and he knows where this idea goes wrong. You don’t have a trading plan if you don’t know where that plan goes wrong.

For example, let’s say you’re currently bullish. You say, “Bitcoin just hit an all-time high yesterday. We’re going up.” Where will you become a bear? What if the price of Bitcoin drops to $100,000? Are you going to hold it? Are you still bullish at $100,000? Maybe not anymore, right? So where does this idea go wrong?

His idea was refuted above the historical high, right? You need to be the ultimate optimist and have maximum confidence in your trading idea, but you must be willing to change your view immediately if new information becomes available.

The price can only go up or down, right? So if you think it will go down and it goes up, you shouldn’t be like CryptoCapo, who is so fixated on the bearish trend that he can’t admit, “Oh, shit, I was wrong.” You will do yourself more harm by clinging to a prejudice or trading idea for the sake of public perception than by simply accepting defeat and moving on.

That’s point number one. There’s a lot to talk about here, but I won’t get too carried away. First of all, if you’re in the audience, it’s fun to make fun of people when they’re wrong, of course, right? But if you don’t make predictions yourself, you have no right to criticize someone who does and is wrong.

In short, get rid of me in real life. Not even in Minecraft. You don’t make realistic predictions, so go to hell. Who are you? At least I have the courage to express my position openly. What are you doing? I also invest my own money in my positions. So if I’m wrong, I lose, right?

You probably don’t do anything at all. You’re probably just talking without even having any cryptocurrency. You’re watching from the sidelines. There’s a reason why people like me, Ansem, DonAlt, Kobe, GCR—all these big accounts—are posting less and less.

Some of them you don’t even know. You might ask, “Who the hell is GCR? Who is Kobe?” You don’t even know because they get tired of it, right? Ultimately, I don’t want to deal with this. Twitter is such a negative place. You guys are partly the reason why some accounts don’t post anymore because they think, “I don’t want to do this anymore.”

So if you’re one of those people who constantly throws dirt on people in the comments, one day Anom will stop posting, and it will be a sad day for Twitter, whether you like it or not.

I think one thing you, as new traders, need to realize is: don’t live up to the expectations of what the internet says. If you want to post your thoughts on Twitter, do so. If you’re trying to grow your audience, provide value, post analysis, and be confident in your predictions.

But don’t change your trading idea just because you’re thinking, “I said on Twitter that I’m long, but now I’m leaning bearish, and I can’t change my position because people on Twitter will call me a defector.” Let them. This is your money, right?

This is something I had difficulty with before. I posted an idea, people commented, and I responded to every account without an avatar, saying, “No, fuck off,” and so on. It doesn’t matter at all. Twitter isn’t a real place. These people aren’t real.

If you provide real value, people will find you. Ultimately, it’s your money you’re risking, dude. Don’t let some idiot online influence your decision.

And Ansem has thick skin, because what he faces is simply madness. I hope he doesn't stop fasting. He’s my idol, bro.

Yes, he is my idol. I mean, he’ll stop. He will stop. We will all stop. You’ll stop someday, too.

Well, do you know what I mean? No, dude. I will never, never leave you in the chat, no way.

You’re still young, bro. But there will come a time when you say, “Okay, after all, the reward isn’t the same anymore.” I still enjoy helping people, teaching, and creating educational content, but when I have kids, who knows? I’ll probably want to teach them something, you know? First class: analyzing technical-analysis breakouts. That’s cool.

I remember you had a video a month and a half ago where you talked about the direction of the market and said that if we made a real all-time high, then that long-awaited alt season would begin. We achieved a kind of all-time high. It seems like we hit a peak of a hundred dollars, then rolled back. Then we made a new one, but it wasn’t exactly skyrocketing.

But it was real; it seems like we closed at an all-time high. How do you assess the timeframe for that alt season now?

Bitcoin is looking a bit weak right now. This looks like one of those three-drive patterns where there’s a weak all-time high. This is just a wick, so I’m saying that a move below $100,000 isn’t out of the question, and it would be a gift if we get there.

But I’m sure, looking at how some altcoins are performing and the fact that Bitcoin hasn’t said its last word yet, that we’re in for the same rally. My dream scenario is Bitcoin pulling back from these levels and falling to $100,000 or lower, around $95,000. Everyone panics, and then within 2–3 weeks it’s trading at around $140,000.

That would be my dream scenario. Maybe this won’t happen. This pullback may be less profound. But I believe we’re close, and I believe that in the next 3–6 months, maybe even earlier, alt season will begin.

Dude, I’m just looking at the charts. What do you think about what’s happening with gold right now? Seriously, what kind of shit is this?

It’s the end of the world, man. What the hell? What is happening? This is the end of the world. This is trading in devaluation, right? It seems like people want to hold anything right now, just not dollars.

The S&P is soaring. Everyone’s like, “Oh my God, the S&P has gone up so much.” But the S&P is actually lagging behind. It doesn’t grow against anything other than the U.S. dollar or the Canadian dollar. Regarding the euro, you could say it’s flat. It’s falling relative to gold. It’s falling relative to Bitcoin.

The dollar is simply being mercilessly destroyed. It’s a disgusting game of devaluation, where the average person loses the purchasing power of their dollars.

You don't hold cryptocurrency or gold. Therefore, they become more expensive, and inflation simply destroys you.

For me, what's happening now is the beginning of the end of the world and a major financial reset. That's why I still believe in the four-year cycle. I think we're in a mega-bull-market phase before the climax. Regardless of whether it ends in 6 months or a year, I think 2026–2027 will be terrible. The middle class will collapse, and the gap between rich and poor will get even bigger.

I think the situation is going to get very ugly. We're seeing a flight from dollars to assets that don't depreciate. This is truly disturbing, although I hate all this talk about the “permanent lower class.” I think it's propaganda when they say, “Oh, you don't have much time.”

Have you seen how much housing costs? This is difficult. It's really hard, man. My brother is a teacher. I'm buying him a house. That's cool. He's a teacher, and he earns $120,000 a year. Not bad money.

No, that's not bad. Where does he teach?

At a private school. Well, no. No, exactly. I mean, this is in Canada. I don't know. Maybe it's different in the U.S., but he's been doing this for a few years now. I remember in high school, the goal was to make $100,000. Dude, my brother will never be able to buy a house on his own.

There's this guy, Eric Thomas. He's a motivational speaker, and I grew up listening to Eric Thomas. There's a speech that's about 16 years old, and the introduction is this: “If you want to make six figures, you can't just say you want to make it.”

I remember growing up and thinking, “Man, I'm going to make those damn six figures someday. I want to make money. I want to make damn six figures.”

Yeah, man. Six figures in a big city is nothing these days. It's nothing.

And that's why I still believe in it, despite everything, because it could go really far, man. If you look at what they're doing with immigration to take away all the low-skilled work, plus the AI factor, you have a world where, if you don't have money, the next few decades aren't going to be very good. It will be very difficult for you to survive.

I think we're in a crypto bubble. If you talk to an ordinary person, they're not feeling well right now. I went to the hockey game yesterday.

I was at the basketball game yesterday, bro.

Two beers and popcorn—$60.

No.

Yes. What is this, bro?

And like, I, I succeeded. I look at the house and think, “Is this all they give you for $5 million?” I mean, it's a nice house, but in my imagination, a $5 million house should be a huge estate.

And then there's this: “Okay, do you want a supercar?” That's $300,000, $400,000, $500,000, or $600,000, depending on the model. You want a nice watch. I know that $10 million is quite enough for retirement. That's not what I'm talking about.

What I'm saying is that if you only have a couple hundred thousand dollars, I don't think it's as much as people think in the real world, right? Although most people would kill for it.

That's the reason some of you, when you've made half a million or a million, are thinking, “Oh, well, the bull market isn't over yet. I'd rather not record the profit, because it could be $2 million.”

The thing is, $500,000 is a lot of money. This is nothing, absolutely nothing. I think a lot of us have just become desensitized to what the average person goes through.

I'm not trying to say you're running out of time, but I really think that if you don't have a good way to make money yet, it can get harder.

Okay, someone asked, “What camera effect does M use that makes his neck so wide?” I had to read this. You look angry, too. You're in good shape, man. Your face has lost weight and everything.

Oh, no, your boyfriend goes to the gym. It's okay.

This is partly the reason why I became a permanent bull, especially after you started telling me about that guy from the thread. I stole your clip. Ten BTC is a number.

I've kind of become a permanent crypto bull because I don't really believe that dollars are worthless. I don't think we've reached that point yet. But I definitely gave in a little to the idea that selling means losing. I've gotten to the point where I think, “Sell to buy what?”

I bought a certain amount of BTC that I don't think I could sell at any price, because this gold chart is really scary.

I was supposed to shoot a video at my house for a case—I’ll talk about it later—but I had an actor in the house, and in one of the shots we showed the S&P 500. There were two of them. I was eavesdropping on a conversation, and someone asked, “Is this a real graph?”

They said, “No, no. It's just a screenshot.”

I looked at the graph in the background and thought, “This is the most ridiculous screenshot I've ever seen. This is the craziest graph I've ever seen in my life.”

So I have a few thoughts. I'll explain them briefly.

First, I think it's much better to live life as a constant optimist, a constant bull, because what's the alternative, right? Nobody wants to be a pessimist. The world may end, but do you want to bet on it? Of course not.

Second, I believe that America is currently experiencing something like the fall of the Roman Empire. But the fall of the Roman Empire lasted for centuries. This doesn't mean that America will be finished in a year.

I think America has probably peaked, and then it's China's and Asia's turn. I think many would agree that Asia is on a completely different level now. People go to Singapore and say, “Wait a minute. This is what big cities are supposed to be like.” This is Hong Kong. This is Shenzhen. Compared to them, America looks like a third-world country.

Part of it is because the communism in China—or the dictatorship, whatever they have there—allows them to do whatever they want in business, right? They can steal everything from America. They don't have these rules, they don't have these regulations, and they don't have this concern about taking care of people.

We have to follow environmental guidelines. That's why the climate-change thing is so funny to me, because America and Canada can get to zero emissions, and China is going to pollute like crazy. They don't care. You know what I'm saying?

I think you can be optimistic. I still think America is the best country to live in. But you should invest in China. I think it's a very smart thing to invest in China right now—Chinese stocks and electric-car companies there. I think that's the right bet.

I'm still bullish on crypto and Bitcoin because of its limitations. But there's a counterargument: if you bet against America and you're right, what is the world going to look like after that? That's not the world I want to be in.

That's what surprises me about some of the pessimists who say, “America is done. China will win,” blah blah blah. I say, “Bro, if America is done, that's bad.” I don't like that kind of world. No matter how perfect America is, where it's not number one. Um, I think the world is a much better place when America is the superpower and not China.

But who knows?

Yeah, that's a fact. If you're right, at what price? When you look at the gold chart, does that raise your expectations for what BTC can do if things get really crazy?

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I don't think Bitcoin is going to hit $1 million this cycle—not at all. I think it's going to hit $1 million eventually, but this cycle it could hit 6 figures.

Again, you have to ask yourself: What's your entry point? How big is your portfolio? If Bitcoin hit $300,000, wouldn't you say that was the best bull market in history? Then it has a 60% pullback, right? At that point, a 60% pullback would still leave it at $100,000 after a bear market.

So $300,000 is a little over 2× what it's at now. You know what I mean? When people say we're just getting started, I think the risk-reward of Bitcoin right now says we're already at the finish line.

Even if it goes to $1 million, that's a smaller percentage return. That's the same return it had from November 2 or 3 years ago to today. I don't think it's going to go to $1 million, but if Bitcoin went to $300,000 or $400,000, which would be crazy, and then it rolled back and the bear market contracted because of institutional demand, that means we'd be buying back in the $100,000s.

That's why it seems to me like we can't lose. The average person should just hoard Bitcoin, dude. Try to get 1, and when you get 1, try to get a damn 10. Make your case for 10 BTC.

Why that number?

I think Bitcoin, at some point in my lifetime, will be worth about $1 million a unit. It could be in 2 years; it could be in 10. If you have 10 Bitcoins, that's $10 million. I just don't see how that doesn't provide for you and future generations in some really meaningful way.

A hundred is a really big number. But let's relax. A hundred gets you into the citadel. Who quoted me that? I've forgotten who it was. I don't really know who it was.

We used to have this Pepe chart, and it was like the depths of hell, and then it went up to the heavens. That heaven was called the citadel, and each level required a certain amount of Bitcoin to get into.

It's a very old-school thing, but the citadel used to require thousands of Bitcoins, because back then a couple thousand Bitcoins was like a million bucks. Now, with 100 Bitcoins, you're definitely in the citadel. It's crazy.

Dude, 100 is too much. What are you—okay, you must be a big perp fan. What do you think about all this Perp Wars drama? Are you buying Lighter points? Are you holding Aster? Do you have a Hyperliquid bag? In short, what do you think?

No.

I'm the biggest loser of the generation. Polymarket DM'd me to work together 2 years ago. The lead developer of Hyperliquid DM'd me to meet in person. He said, "I'm a big fan. Let's see you." This was sometime in 2023, and I completely ignored him.

It's disgusting. Julian, I think his name is. I'm like, "I don't even know." Two-generational fortunes—and that's all. But no, I don't. I have Hyperliquid because I believe in the token. I think the company is good. It's like owning BNB.

Here's my take. First, Aster: a hundred billion dollars in volume. I've used Aster. I've tried it. It's not great. I haven't tried Lighter. I know there are a few others. I'm sure they do well, too.

But the question is, after the airdrop, does the volume just go away and everyone go back to Hyperliquid? That's the problem. Hyperliquid did it so well that the question is: are people going to stay on Lighter, or are they just going to say, "Okay, I got the points. I farmed everything I could there. I'm leaving"?

And will the airdrop be as profitable as people say? I have friends who farm it. They say, "I'll make 8 figures on this." I'm like, "Okay, I hope you do, of course, but I don't know."

It seems like we'll reach a point where these DEXs become like centralized exchanges, where the biggest whales go and where the best liquidity is. Currently, that's Hyperliquid.

Hyperliquid—I started using it because I was really angry. I missed Aster and thought, "Okay, I need to get over this perp thing and start using them a little." So I'm long on CAKE on HL. This is such a good product. It's crazy, because I've tried a couple of things like Drift and a few others.

Hyperliquid—you can't even compare it to dYdX, Vertex, and all that garbage. It's unreal how handsome he is.

How big can it get?

There's a lot of debate about how big perps are as an asset class, and then there's the comparison with prediction markets. Jazz constantly compares prediction markets against perp DEXs.

I know Polymarket just raised about $2 billion at a ridiculous valuation. How big can the perp DEX vertical become over the next few years? Could Hyperliquid be a $500 billion product? How big can it get?

It's already massive, right? It's already massive—$50 billion or so. This is a big company, damn it. You know what I mean? They make millions a day.

But I think even Breakout— we're just another place for speculation. That's all, and the same goes for prediction markets. People talk about the hyper-gambling of the world, right? People love to speculate.

What I really like about prediction markets is that they're like trading options, but much simpler because everything is purely binary. In options, there are Greeks—theta, gamma, whatever. There's no element of that in prediction markets, because it's just yes or no.

For example, will Bitcoin reach this price? Yes or no? If you were to trade the same option contract—would Bitcoin reach $150,000 by a certain date?—the further you are from that price, but the closer you are to the date, the more your option contract loses value exponentially because of time decay.

But it works the other way around, right? What is the advantage of options if you do everything right? Whereas if Bitcoin is worth around $55,000 and you have an option that it will be at $150,000 next month, you're already exponentially in profit. So it works both ways.

But there was this tweet about Polymarket: "Hey, are they selling a dollar for 50 cents? Like, will Bitcoin go up 2%?" There will be a lot of gamification of this process.

I think it's an easier way to get people to speculate, because even with perpetual contracts, you have to evaluate your trade. When will this trade happen? I have to pay for financing. Is my thesis correct? Whereas at Polymarket, it's just yes or no.

It's like baccarat. There are a few commissions or something, but it's just yes or no. I think this has a much bigger overall market size than perpetual contracts, which is really crazy.

I can show the average person a prediction market and they'll say, "Oh, I like Bitcoin. Do I think Bitcoin will hit $1 million this year? Of course. I'll bet on that." I would say, "Just buy the spot. Why don't you buy spot?" They'll say, "I don't want to deal with all this shit. I'll just buy this random contract."

I think it will be very interesting. I truly believe that all of this will become exponentially bigger over time.

Greeks. I mean, I was learning to trade options, and it's funny. I was looking at something—I forget who I was talking to, I think it was Luke Martin—and I saw that something like 15% or 20% of Americans were trading options in the last year, which is crazy.

I'm like, "Okay, what percentage of that group knows what delta or gamma is?" Probably 0.1%.

It's just a way to get rich quick, right? I did the same thing when I first started trading. Some guys were saying, "Bro, you can trade options, invest $200, and make thousands." I'm like, "Cool."

Options on the expiration day—damn, yes. Every option I bought instantly depreciated in value. I'm like, "Well, that's not much fun."

One last question I want to ask: I either wasn't here or wasn't following the BNB season sometime in 2020–2021. How crazy was that? Were you trading then?

It got pretty crazy. Really, really crazy. I don't think it compares to anything we see now.

I wonder which project on BNB was the largest at the time. To be honest, there was a lot of fraud. A bunch of people were just launching tokens and constantly rug-pulling them, taking money.

But it went on long enough and was so crazy that even I got in there and lost some money.

SafeMoon was on BNB, I think. There was also CROK[?]. SafeMoon was on BNB. Cummies, shit, and all that stuff. All that shit. It was ridiculous.

CZ is funny, dude. He'll always be at the center of events. Thread Guy

We're streaming on Friday. This will be cool, bro.

CZ lived and grew up where I lived. He lived in Vancouver, Canada, for a long time. I think he's really back in the game now. That's it, for real.

I wonder if his legal problems were somehow resolved. He returned to tweeting after house arrest.

It's as if he's saying, "I'm nobody now." It can be argued that CZ is one of the richest people on the planet. It's like with Putin: they say he doesn't have that kind of money. Well, yes, but he controls the entire country.

Binance is CZ. For me, they're the same. A tweet came out saying that CZ's fortune was $60 billion, and he's like, "Not that much. This is not true." I thought, "I don't believe you for a second, bro."

He said the figure was inflated. The number is too large. We need to ask him how much it really is.

What do you think he'll say if I ask how much it really is?

No way. I don't think so, bro. He probably has lawyers in his ear saying, "You can't say this. You can't say that."

He's an incredibly cunning businessman. He destroyed FTX at the most opportune moment. Imagine where Sam and FTX would be now if they hadn't crashed. Maybe they would be bigger than Binance.

He invested in everything—Anthropic, all these best investments in history. Just top-notch. And he had Solana, right? I guess half the reason they were able to pay off their debts in bankruptcy was how much the assets they had left grew.

It's crazy when you think about it. This is madness, bro. But he took him out at his most vulnerable moment. He caught him red-handed and took a control shot, like, "You're done."

Do you think Sam will ever return to crypto? He tweeted the other day, didn't he?

They say it was his friend. His friend said, "Knowing crypto, they would have welcomed him back with open arms, because people are idiots."

Maybe so. I don't know. Maybe it's part of the conditions of his upcoming release, that he can't do crypto. You never know.

When did you join Crypto Twitter?

In 2017.

In 2014, bro.

In 2013.

Who was CZ? Damn, you're a real grandfather.

Who was CZ in 2013? Well, he wasn't even there. When did he appear? In the 2016–2017 cycle.

Was it Binance right away, or how did it work?

People don't even remember, bro. Bybit, when they first started—all these companies did this. They started without KYC, as murky as possible, then grew into giants and only afterward tried to launder money retrospectively, right?

That's why Kraken is so legal and Coinbase was able to go public. They couldn't grow as fast as Binance or Bybit because they were operating in the US. They had to follow the rules, and Bybit and Binance never had that problem.

BitMEX was the same. Part of the reason CZ went to jail is that people on Binance—and Bybit did it too—were allowed to trade even if they were American or Canadian, including whales, even though they shouldn't have been allowed to in the first place.

They had high-level affiliate managers, business development specialists—sorry, verification managers, whatever you want to call them—and they were like, "Yo, I know you're in Canada, but we'll approve your account for KYC. We'll let you trade. We'll give you the best VIP level because we need the volume. You trade, right?"

Of course.

Okay. Of course. Okay. I'm the same guy.

Well, not anymore, of course, because that would be illegal. But it was the Wild West back then, and it wasn't illegal for me. It was illegal for them to let me do that. They knew, as if they didn't know.

I had a fake ID.

I’m in Palau. But they were actively reaching out to large traders. BitMEX was doing the same. When Bybit launched, you could go to their FAQ and see that it was copied from BitMEX. You could press Command + F, type “BitMEX,” and find places where they had forgotten to change it to “Bybit.”

It can’t be.

Yes, dude. It was the Wild West. Everything was allowed. These exchanges got the upper hand by growing massively, and now they’re trying to clean up their act in retrospect.

CZ used to work at OKX, right? This is someone writing in the chat. He was at OKX, then launched Binance and became CZ Binance on Twitter in 2016, I think, although I could be wrong. They say he was giving away free BNB to people who signed up.

This is madness. Imagine, bro.

Guys like Moon Carl, for example.

Yes. He has a Bugatti, lives in Dubai, and is worth hundreds of millions of dollars. He was one of the first—

Oh my God.

Seriously. He was one of the first to have a referral link on Bybit.

And in his heyday, when he had 100,000 subscribers on YouTube—which was a huge number at the time—he was getting 5 to 10 Bitcoin a day.

Per day.

From 5 to 10 Bitcoin per day. He launched a few tokens that Bybit instantly listed.

And they were skis. They fell to 0.

Look, I think one was called Casta or Caspa. They had another one called something like Medieval Empires. It was a game, and Bybit launched a token for it.

Ohrinites [?].

It was a huge presale, and then the charts just dropped 99%. That was it—the end.

Right, so you’re saying Moon Carl could be a billionaire?

Yes, it could very well be. Look at this damn graph.

My God.

That’s right.

Yes, bro. Being first is profitable.

Someone said they were in time for BitBoy’s tantrum, lol.

Yes, dude. A lot of these guys—BitBoy and that whole cohort—I know we’ve gone through time, but there are these cycles of cohorts: crooks, scoundrels, and things like that. It’s like you guys had no idea what was going on back then, bro.

So you think everything is cleaner now than before?

It’s not that it’s cleaner. It’s just different, and the scale is different.

Well, listen: Hayden Davis made more than $100 million from a rug pull involving the president of Argentina. This is probably the peak of the scale.

But what was happening then was just comical, man.

Someone says that Moon Carl had a team in Formula 2. Is this true?

Yes, dude. He had a Formula 2 team. It seems like he still has one.

What?

Yes. He was driving a Bugatti around Dubai.

The guy has unlimited money, like many others like him.

BitBoy was on the edge for a while, with all these companies giving him hundreds of thousands of dollars and hundreds of thousands of dollars in tokens, like Julian Patoulias [?].

Yes. He made a ton of money during the ICO boom.

The ICO boom was on another level. He was hanging out with Drake and all that, right?

Yes.

But he made a lot of money. He’s made some very smart investments, like Palantir and all that stuff. His initial takeoff was precisely on these ICO projects, entering Chainlink very early and investing in other similar ICOs.

You could have a fund back then and say, “I’ll write an article about your coin. Just give me a bunch of advisory tokens and an allocation.” It was just easy money. Then we had those “vampire” tokens from venture funds that would plummet right after launch because the funds instantly sold everything.

That’s why we never released a token at Breakout. Every person who wants to invest asks, “When is the token?” I say, “You want to give us money, and when the token launches, you’ll dump it to get your investment back?” That just doesn’t make any sense.

That was crazy, bro. I have many friends and acquaintances who had funds in 2017, 2018, 2020, and 2021, and they made a lot of money. But now that model no longer works. No one wants to see venture capitalists like that on board anymore. You don’t need them. These guys can’t make money like they used to anymore.

Do you think ICOs will return to the same level? They’ll definitely be regulated, right?

Yes, but didn’t they disappear somewhere?

People are still fundraising. Look what Ekko is doing, right? This is crowdfunding to raise funds for a token.

Yeah, damn it. Plasma made 300–400x, bro.

I built Breakout with my own money. No damn token, no funding. We held a small fundraiser after we became profitable, and I regret it because we didn’t even touch that money. I would rather have kept all the capital for myself.

Why did you do that?

It looked like good marketing. It looked solid. It was nice to have a small reserve fund, but we didn’t need it. It was only $4 million, man. I raised $4 million. It’s not that much money.

They were friends. We had 2 big investors who invested $1 million each, but we didn’t even need them because we already had a profitable business.

The problem with the ICO and IDO model is that they raise money to build something they say will be so cool. It seems too late.

Yes. Yes. Yes.

How can this even make any sense? Everything is perceived as seed stage. This has always been a problem with NFTs. They say, “Okay, give us $10 million and we’ll build it. Here is the roadmap.”

But regular companies raise funds and go public only when they have already become a full-fledged business. It’s like angel investing, where they say, “Hey, I have an idea. I need money.” But everyone knows that in angel investing, 1 in 100 works.

That’s how it is with these tokens. 1 in 100 will actually become Solana, and the rest will just be crap. So I don’t know. It’s not going to change anything. I don’t think it’s going to go away. It’s going to change, but this is the game we’re playing, man. This is the game we’re playing.

Save your money. Buy Bitcoin. That’s it.

Before you go, can you make a chart for CAKE?

Yeah, sure. I already did it earlier today, before I bought it. Let me open it. I’m going to have to turn off the camera. I don’t have an overlay for this, but I’ll fix it. Do you see my camera or my screen?

Okay, so we’re on the monthly chart, right? Even the 3-month chart. This thing is just at the bottom, right? It went down to a disgusting level. These are my favorite setups.

You have this huge level on the long-term timeframe, right here.

That was your price bottom?

It broke lower, came back higher, then moved lower again. If it holds above that red line, I think it looks really good.

Then you go down, and here you also have a little SFP right in this long-term demand area—a swing failure pattern. We’ve taken out basically every low on this chart. This is the lowest point it’s been at, I think, almost. Maybe not all-time. I don’t have the whole chart history, but there have been a lot of failures over the years.

Yeah, it’s clearly a low.

Yeah. And that’s clearly a level to hold above. Let’s go to the monthly. It’s still a very good SFP.

On the weekly, the fact that we’re breaking out of this zone—which is what caused this little jump here—I just started buying. Literally today.

So are you still buying? You’re adding quite a bit here.

Not here. I came in from about $4, so it’s up almost 10%. I’m up 7% from my entry.

Your entry is a top-notch one. Are you spot or leveraged?

I’m in perpetual futures. I think if we get below that level, we should start asking questions. But so far, it looks really, really good. If it pulls back to about $4, buy more if you’re not in a position yet. I think you buy here, in this range.

How do you set a target price for something like that? It looks pretty good.

You open a really big timeframe and look to the left, right? $10, right? I drew $10. We took it out. We took it out. We took it out. That’s what I’m interested in. I drew $10.

That’s going to be the same trade that I opened on Pump.

Are you still in the position?

No, I sold it. I literally just took that trade off. It looks pretty good right now. I don’t know. Maybe not. Look at this. I’ll show them side by side.

Pump looks pretty good here. If you look at them side by side, I want you to notice the structure. This is very common price action at lows, right? You get this big takeout. You have a low, a lower low, and a higher low.

This is exactly how I went long on Chainlink years ago. It seems like that was 2 years ago, maybe 1 year ago. I took a long at the very bottom. It’s exactly the same situation here.

This one has been going on for a lot longer, but basically you have this low that breaks out, comes back higher, forms a higher low, then a lower high, and you just eat it up.

So where is Pump now?

That’s where Pump is now.

Yeah.

This is a very good area for Pump to start the next phase of growth. Price is fractal. All the charts look the same; they’re just at different stages.

For example, Bitcoin and ETH look the same. They’re just at different points in time of this pump. Bitcoin has already soared well above its all-time highs. Bitcoin is pretty damn high right now. ETH is more in that zone to me. It looks like it hasn’t had its second parabolic phase yet.

A lot of altcoins are still down here: low, lower low, higher low.

Wow.

You could make a lot of money on a long.

How the hell did Bitcoin find a bottom?

It’s exactly the same setup, right? It’s the simplest low, lower low, higher low. Same thing. If you buy Bitcoin here, as long as it doesn’t fall below that level, you can stay in the trade.

And if it falls below, you're wrong. It's going to keep falling. Who cares? The market makes tops exactly the same way. Does it work the other way around? Yes: a high, a higher high, and a lower high. It's exactly the same, right there.

What does it look like? A high, a higher high, a lower high; a high, a higher high, a lower high. That's how every market makes bottoms and tops on any timeframe. You might say, “Well, you don't see that on this timeframe.” Look at ETH.

I'll see if I can open ETH. Look at ETH in this order block, where it found a bottom. It found a bottom here. You might ask, how did I know to buy this weekly demand, other than me tweeting and telling you to buy there? How else would you know?

On a fairly low timeframe, it's going to be the same fractal. You see it already, right? Here's your level: low, lower low, higher low; low, lower low, higher low. It's everywhere. That's about 90% of my strategy. It's just finding it. You have to know where to look.

You can't find it in the middle of nowhere. There's got to be some context. But that's the easiest thing. Once you get a little bit of that, you're going to see it everywhere, bro. You're going to see it everywhere.

Can you do Plasma? What's XPL?

Sure. What's the best chart? Is it the one that shows the most price history?

The whole chart.

It's going to do what I call a J-curve. Where do you see this big pump? Then it comes in like this period, and it looks like a J-curve. I think it's going to go back up.

The question is, how long is it going to stay in that range? I wouldn't rush to buy it. Remind me what the fuck it's doing.

It's this cash stablecoin that Paolo invested in.

Yeah. I think if you like this coin, that's the range where you should buy it. What would make it attractive is if it made a lower low and then came back in. Then I would be very confident in buying it.

That was cool, what you just did. It kind of did that at the very beginning of that range: a lower low, then a higher low, and now we're—

I just think it needs a little bit more time. I want to see it form a clear bottom, and it seems to be doing that. It looks like the same low, right? So if it goes below that higher low and then comes back up, your trading idea is: I buy here, and if it's lower, I was wrong.

And where does it go from here?

Probably here.

You do it with a mouse, by the way?

Yeah. It's very smooth. That's years of practice, bro.

Now you have to do Bitcoin for us, obviously.

Yeah, Bitcoin. I'm upset because I actually think there was such a good short here that I didn't take.

Why didn't you take it?

High, higher high, lower high. Middle of the night, right? We're in the same time zone, bro. We're just exhausted, man.

Wait, go back to the timeframe you were on.

Oh, this one. Oh, no. Yeah, isn't that a high, higher high, lower high?

Yeah, bro. That's it.

Yeah. So you would short this retest, and your stop is right there.

How do you know when it's a failed retest and when this crap breaks further?

It must be the range. I mean, if we trade above that high, I'm out.

Got it.

Yeah. That's exactly the same trade I took here, right? The idea was that this is a very long version of your level. Here's your move higher. So when we came back here, I thought we could bounce here. I'll just put a stop loss there. It's the same trade that was in Anom, just fractal.

But anyway, I think there's a really good level in Bitcoin. Remove all that junk. Right around here, like 117–118, I think that's where we should hold.

Why did you draw it there?

To me, it is maybe even a little bit lower, like these old highs. And then there's that order block right there. So I'm just taking this whole area. It doesn't look very pretty, and it doesn't have to be precise. It's more like, if we're bullish, we shouldn't go below these highs.

What is it?

Because then suddenly it looks like this, you know? I would say 1175-118 if you want to be a little bit more precise. We have this demand zone at about 120. That would be a bearish scenario, and I think we're going to go after those lows if that happens.

But for now, I guess you want to analyze something else?

If we're bullish, it's just a retest. Whether we go a little bit lower or the low is already set, you want to see a move up from that area.

You have a few more minutes. Can we look at something else?

Yeah, of course.

What do you even do with BNB? It looks so silly. Do you think it's never going to go down?

There might be a correction, but this thing hasn't even had a bear market like other coins. CZ is just going to hold the level. He's never going to let BNB go below that. You know what I mean? That looks crazy.

I think it's worth keeping an eye on the BNB network, but if you're in a leveraged deal, there are a few things you can do. The first thing you can do with something like that is take the old level. Bull market, right? You say, okay, that was your low, and this is your high, and you use Fibonacci levels to predict the price reaction.

Based on that old price reversal, we see that it's a pretty interesting level. It actually peaked for the market for a short time. It's probably going to go up here. If the real madness starts, it might go up to 1,800. But these Fibonacci levels work really well. Even when you get close, you can see it's resistance. Price is retracing and pushing up.

I think we're getting close to a resistance area based on the Fibonacci levels. But if you're long and you don't know where to close or how to manage the trade, go up to a higher timeframe. I would say at least daily, but if you want to go lower and be more active, you can do that.

Where are the higher lows? To me, that's probably your structure. As long as we're above that area, I think the upside is probably going to continue. If we get below that area, price is probably ready for a larger-scale pullback.

You can just pull your stop loss up mentally if you want, or set a real stop and pull it up as long as the price keeps making higher highs and higher lows. Let's say the invalidation level on the 4-hour chart is here. If we lose that level, the 4-hour chart turns bearish. It doesn't mean it's over. It just means the 4-hour chart is now bearish.

Yeah, this chart is just crazy. Okay, I think the last thing to break down is SOL. The question for you is a psychological one: are you worried that SOL might be penalized for losing liquidity to BNB?

No. Do I even care about Solana?

Well, you know what I mean. I think this is a question for those who are “in the trenches.” What if you don't care about Solana?

I think SOL is still a good coin, right? People in crypto are very tribalistic. For that matter, SOL has shown much more resilience than BNB. BNB has only had short-term spikes, whereas SOL is much more stable. So I think SOL is still a good coin. I don't think it's a bad coin.

Looking at this chart on a high timeframe, you definitely want this thing to make a fresh high soon. I don't like this noise with the candle shadows at 240.

What is that level there?

Yeah. What is it? Exactly 210. I would say as long as we're above that level, I like it. Every time the price has gone higher, it's come back down. So I'm ready for this thing to go to the next stage of growth.

SOL, ETH, BNB—it doesn't matter. Best-case scenario is Bitcoin at 150K.

Got it.

Then everything just goes up. Everything reprices higher. It looks like this: Bitcoin makes a spurt, and everything is pumping. Everything is pumping, then Bitcoin does this, and then they all get real exponential growth. I think that's what we need next.

Okay, last request. Someone says it's his birthday, dude. He said it's his birthday. “Please, please, have TraderMayne analyze Athena and I'll be off the hook.”

Athena—is that ENA?

Yeah, there you have it. Looks like your guy made some money on this thing.

Yeah. So I went long on Ethena, right? There was just this high, higher high, lower high. If you're wondering why I went long on Ethena, it's literally because of this retest that we had here: low, lower low, and then the price came back higher. So I just went long.

I think if we go down to a lower timeframe, we'll see a higher low there. But let's see. I went long because the monthly chart told me that this is where the monthly low is forming. This is one of those coins. It's kind of crazy. It looks wild.

I wouldn't say it looks incredible, but I would say this is where the low should form. Let's see if there's anything there. I want to see something happen in this gray area.

So we have these levels here as that low. That looks like a short, right? Based on that pattern: high, higher high, lower high. That was definitely a short on top of that. From that last one, I think you'd want this level.

Yeah, that's the same short move, right? That would be great, right? But the price has already dropped 20% from there. It's like, well, you missed your chance.

I think it wants to go through these levels. But from here, if you look at the structure, if you believe in this coin for any reason, what you definitely don't want to see is a full pullback.

Ideally, we want this to be a low, this to be a high, and then somewhere in there, a higher low. That would be the ideal scenario for something like that to happen. I think it's possible.

I agree. Thanks, man.

I think Bitcoin dominance is going to go up soon. A lot of people are saying Bitcoin dominance should go down. I would probably prefer Bitcoin dominance to go up and then go down, but maybe I'm alone in that.

And what would that mean? Does that mean Bitcoin dominance can go up if Bitcoin itself isn't really going up?

Yes, Bitcoin dominance can go up. Bitcoin dominance can go up even if Bitcoin is going down. It just means that altcoins are going down even more.

I get it. But again, I think this is a parabolic phase for Bitcoin, and then the altcoin season comes in. Right under that square, that dip that happens when Bitcoin makes its next spike, and then the dip that follows—that’s the altcoin season.

I get it. I wish. That would be a dream come true.

That was a great session, bro. You just gave it your all.

Yeah, man. Always fun.

And I’m just saying, a lot of people in the chat are saying that TraderMayne should stream more often. I’m just saying.

Guys, I put out 3 videos on YouTube a week.

Yeah, but they want streams, man.

I know, but the streams don’t get that many views. If more people watch the streams, maybe I’ll start… Although the streams get crazy views. I’m lying. But they—you know, doing it every day, it’s kind of like that, man. You know, those videos… It seems Rasmer [?] joked that being a streamer is harder than that.

Sure, it’s not harder than working construction or a regular 9-to-5 job, but it’s exhausting. They’re like, “Oh, you just sit at home and talk.” It’s like, yeah, 2 hours of sitting on your ass trying to be interesting, and then I’m exhausted.

Then I’m back in the living room, and my wife’s like, “What’s up?” And I’m like, “I don’t want to talk. I just want to sit in silence for the rest of the day.”

Yeah, I’m just broadcasting. They said they wanted to stream. So maybe we’ll invite you back soon.

Maybe I’ll figure something out and start streaming once or twice a week. We’ll see. We’ll see. If anyone can convince me to do it, it’s Thread Guy. That would be—hell, at least I’ll sign you up for a return visit.

Any parting words? Anything you want to say to people one last time?

You were on Thread Guy—a real player. I watched that damn video this morning. Those were real shots. Okay, those are really cool shots. Somebody make a video of that shit. This guy.

Also, I told Cooker Flips if he gets 100 followers, I’ll tell you he wants to follow me on Twitter, and he only got 50. I’ll just take his word for it that there’ll be another 50. So, do whatever you want.

Who is Cooker Flips?

Cooker Flips is, like, the secret god of trench coats right now. He’s on a crazy rise right now.

Is that the guy everyone was trying to de-anonymize in Singapore?

Yeah, that cute Asian guy everyone was taking pictures with. He’s making a lot of money.

I’m going to follow him right now, but you make sure of 2 conditions. Condition number 1: PM your bro before you make a historic bet. You know, I may be old, but I still like to make money. And number 2, those other 50 subs have to come in, buddy. They have to come in.

Dude, you’re my GOAT, bro.

Thanks for coming, bro. I missed you.

Always, dude. Talk to you soon.

Okay, bye.