Palantir CEO Alex Karp:西方为何正在自毁、数据帝国、怀疑者与如何取胜
Palantir 可投资的核心逻辑在于:它曾遭嘲笑的运营模式——FDEs、Foundry 和 ontology——恰恰因为竞争对手避开了那些艰苦、乏味的工作,最终形成了差异化。 技术专家曾预测FDEs会摧毁估值倍数,但节目从Palantir首个10亿美元季度切入,Karp随后把这套打法——“做FDEs、做Ontology,再将它们规模化编排”——与“增长93%”联系起来。他说,建设者要靠跑赢“高折现率”来赢得信誉。
Karp所称曾约束Palantir政府业务的公民自由架构,也是他解释其企业AI优势的核心。 他断然否认直接或间接监控美国人,称Palantir没有建立民主党政府要求的穆斯林数据库,并指出ACLs、不可篡改日志、分支和序列化机制,正是其成为“全世界最难被滥用的产品”的原因。这些控制机制如今也用于管理LLM的数据访问、权限、部署和评估。
Karp将受控边境定义为有利于工人的产业政策,而不只是移民执法。 他认为,AI和职业培训可以提升本国劳动力的价值,而不受约束的廉价劳动力会压低这种价值;目标是在“不肢解公民自由”的前提下阻止非法入境。当主持人要求他为数量不确定的3000万无证居民提出方案时,Karp优先要求犯罪分子、与犯罪接近的人以及其他与犯罪有关联的人离境。主持人随后追问定义和数据问题,Karp回应说自己是在“重述问题”,主持人则补充道:“我希望你能回答它。”
他为Palantir军事角色所作的辩护是:更好的软件应让武力使用更精准、目标选择更准确,而不是消除武力。 他支持以色列自卫的权利,反对巴勒斯坦无辜者死亡,声称以色列无辜者与非无辜者的伤亡比例在历史上更优,但仍表示“未来必须做得更好”。谈到芬太尼时,主持人将每年约10万人的死亡与9·11造成的3000人死亡相比较;Karp明确支持相应地对待毒品恐怖分子。
Karp对西方衰落的诊断是制度性自我否定:国家不再相信自身文化拥有有价值的优势,继而放弃择优和执行。 他认为,德国明明拥有顶尖工业、职业教育,却在能源、移民和科技问题上“把一切都炸毁了”;法国保有非凡的数学人才,却让最优秀的人等待数十年才能获得一份真正的工作。他将其与美国的加尔文主义背景相对照:成功是正当的,投入应当公平,而“产出永远不会公平”。
谈到中国,Karp将论点从追责转向韧性:“破坏我们的稳定是他们的工作;保持稳定是我们的工作。” 主持人称中国正通过芬太尼和TikTok试图破坏美国稳定后,Karp以太极为模型:对手会暴露内部弱点,因此增强自身实力就可能避免冲突。同一原则也塑造了他的外交政策分野:必要时使用武力,但拒绝占领,也拒绝幻想海外的阿富汗人或国内的移民会自动接受西方价值观。
1. Palantir将怀疑转化为执行证明
Karp对现场分歧的解释从建设者开始:他们“会给任何人说的任何话都加上折现率”,只有当表现跑赢这一折现率时才授予信誉。因此,Palantir的支持者用超额表现评判公司;抗议者则往往从一种信念出发,认为AI和科技让他们“根本没有办法进入这个圈子”。
公司的发展路径刻意反直觉。技术专家认为FDEs会阻止Palantir获得软件估值倍数;Karp则被描绘成一名“魔法师”,说服一群聪明绝顶的人去做一件从根本上愚蠢的事。Palantir还曾在支持美国政府极不受欢迎时为其辩护,并被认为极不擅长公共关系。他的回答是:“看看结果,看看我们结出的果实。”
Karp对抗议者最有力的解释是:他们害怕被永久排除在外,于是接受了“极其倒退、无法运作的哲学或经验模型”,认为失败者必须是高尚的。他指责精英机构教导人们怀疑个人成就,但也承认其中有真实成分:社会没有“充分做好”帮助底层人群的工作。
投资者的潜台词始终明确:开场蒙太奇标志着Palantir首个10亿美元季度;Karp随后把FDEs和规模化编排的ontology与“增长93%”联系起来;最后一位主持人感谢他,因为自己的妻子曾以20美元买入该股。这些数字被作为一套曾遭嘲笑的战略的裁决结果呈现出来。
2. 边境管控是检验进步主义执行力的试金石
Karp按时间顺序梳理了自己的抗议史:几十年来因支持美国特种作战而遭到反对,随后因边境执法引发愤怒,如今又因涉及ICE而受到批评。他认为边境管控属于进步主义,因为AI和职业培训可以提升美国工人的价值,而开放边境可能压低工人的工资。他同时坚持,解决方案不能“肢解”公民自由。
Karp称80%–90%的美国人希望边境有序;主持人反驳说,这种支持与执行“完全脱节”。Karp认为,政治机制在于回避问题:无法让今天的工人在明天更有价值的领导人,会用廉价劳动力替代;左翼的一部分人也期待从中获得选举收益。欧洲展示了政治共同体如何将一项不受欢迎的政策包装成“没有解决方案”。
主持人关于监控的反驳值得保留:借助无处不在的摄像头和面部识别,识别所有人并不困难,但没人应该希望生活在那样的社会。Karp对此表示同意,并将其比作声称收入增长400%、却永远亏损——技术上可以做到,但不能称为一门生意。真正合法的解决方案必须同时提升公民自由、减少非法居留。
当被追问面对数量不确定的3000万无证居民,他个人会怎么做时,Karp表示会让犯罪分子、与犯罪接近的人以及任何与犯罪有关联的人离开,包括通过自行离境;合法诉求应得到尊重,所有人都应被公平对待。主持人随后追问了更棘手的问题——什么算犯罪、不同违法行为是否等价、执法数据或推定数据能否被使用——指责Karp只是在重述问题,并说:“我希望你能回答它。”
3. 公民自由控制成为企业AI优势
当被问及Palantir是否对美国公民进行大规模数据收集时,Karp回答没有,包括间接汇总或推定式聚合。他说,一届民主党政府曾要求Palantir建立穆斯林数据库,但Palantir没有这样做。公司也拒绝与中国、俄罗斯或其他对手合作,即使这些决定会损失可观收入。
Karp承认,任何有效技术都可能被滥用,但称Palantir是“滥用公民自由时最不该使用的技术”。ACLs、分支、流水线、序列化、反序列化和不可篡改日志,让每项行动都可理解、可审计。他给出的制度性证据是:NSA和FBI长期拒绝采购Palantir,而重视隐私的欧洲一边公开批评Palantir,一边持续购买。
他认为,这些保护机制最终成为商业AI优势。同一套基础设施既能让企业编排LLM,又能在不允许模型不受限访问底层数据的情况下映射业务;它还能控制模型的运行位置、执行权限管理、保留不可篡改记录,并用高保真数据集测试输出。公民自由工程与企业治理,最终变成了同一个技术问题。
他对真正怀疑者的挑战异常直接:“不要相信我说的任何话”;花20分钟检查产品,自己验证。Karp称,没有人把今天的位置拱手交给Palantir——公司承受了20年的嘲笑,在市场理解之前“五六年”就开发出了ontology和FDEs,并让Foundry保持领先。想要成功,“你必须好10倍”。
4. 精准软件抬高动用武力的标准
谈到以色列,Karp明确表示,以色列对这片土地有主张,也有自卫权;在类似情况下,他认为美国的行动会“残酷得多”。但他也明确反对巴勒斯坦无辜者死亡。如果战争仍被允许,他的论点就是软件必须减少无辜者伤亡:他声称以色列无辜者与非无辜者的伤亡比例在历史上无出其右,但随后补充:“未来必须做得更好。”
当被问及Palantir能否帮助分发援助时,Karp拒绝透露具体部署,而没有宣称某种狭义的人道主义用途。他确认Palantir正在以色列使用,并表示在场大多数人都会支持其开展业务的地点;他将这项工作描述为“非常精准且致命”,直接承认精准既可以服务于克制,也可以服务于致命武力。
一位主持人用国内动武案例强化论点:每年约10万人死于芬太尼,而9·11造成3000人死亡,并问毒品卡特尔是否应被作为恐怖分子消灭。Karp“显然”同意:法律不能僵化到让“美国只能等死”,但数据仍必须受到保护,同时要找出恐怖分子。他称每10万人5人死亡是战区阈值,美国一半城市都已达到,并警告长期失灵最终会招来法西斯主义。
5. 西方在不再重视自身优势时失势
Karp将美国与欧洲的“自杀”区分开来:这个听众群体“是在为胜利而战”,但建设者必须捍卫自己成功的权利。他认为美国本质上是加尔文主义的——这是一个允许成就正当存在的文化;古典自由主义则让投入尽可能公平,同时接受产出不平等。在这一框架下,“犹太错乱综合征”之所以危险,是因为它攻击的不是个别犹太人,而是整个择优秩序。
德国是他最核心的警示案例。在软件和AI出现之前,德国可能拥有世界最好的工业基础、学校、职业教育体系、医疗和数据保护;随后却“把能源市场、移民制度和科技圈全都炸毁了”。根本失败在于文化:德国不再相信自身文化有特别之处,尽管Palantir自身在把每个问题“追究到极致”这一点上,仍然带有浓厚的德国底色。
法国是他的第二个案例:法国拥有全球最强的两大数学文化之一,因此LLM中心“本应”设在那里。Palantir从法国招人“招个没完”,Karp还指出,法国1961年至1991年的GDP增速快于美国。然而,其制度最终变得反择优,以至于“最优秀的人”可能要等30年才能获得一份真正的工作。
中国补上了这一机制闭环。太极告诉人们,压力会暴露对手的内部弱点;主持人称中国正通过芬太尼和TikTok试图破坏美国稳定后,Karp的回应是:“保持稳定是我们的工作。”他的外交政策结论也类似:西方实力可以支持必要时动武,但不应占领或重塑其他社会。新保守主义项目与对大规模移民的乐观主义犯的是同一个错误——以为人可以被简单改造成西方人。
[Music] Sometimes traditional stock analysis just lets you down. That's how I feel about the stock of Poundinger. A billion dollars in quarterly revenue for the first time ever. The stock has just ripped. They have delivered here beyond the expectation and the expectations were obviously remarkably high. Carb's the kind of guy who kicks you know what and then he gets in your face afterwards and he tells you that he just did that. As usual, I've been cautioned to be a little modest about our bombastic numbers. If you work for Palanteer, everyone knows you're good. And to all supporters of Palanteer, merry Christmas and a happy New Year's. And to all people who hated on us, enjoy your cult. Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome Palunteer CEO Alex Carp. [Music]
Great to see you. Thanks for coming out. Hey, man. How are you?
Awesome.
How are you doing?
Well, thanks for coming out.
By the way, thank all of you guys. Great crowd. You have the best people. You have a lot of fans here.
Yeah.
Yesterday, we also had a number of protesters.
Hopefully enough.
Why are they—what are they protesting? They're protesting Alex Karp being here. Categorize for me what's going on. Who are the protesters? Why do they protest? Who are the fans? Why do they love you? What can you see?
Good taste. Good taste. Well, there is an issue of taste. I think you always have to try to steelman the other side. Probably the people protesting me have just heard that they should protest me. But if you ask why they could have an argument, or why you should like me—love me—in some cases, honestly, some of you guys like and love me more than I like myself, which takes a little work.
I think this audience, as an example, is almost unfair, because builders basically learn by watching highly talented people put a discount rate on everything anyone says and measure accomplishment based on outperformance against that discount rate. You'll find, if you're managing future builders, that a lot of people who are Palantir-shaped, de facto, get street cred by outperforming against expectations, where expectations are multiplied against a high discount rate.
I think what you'd find in this audience is 2 things converging. One, the journey of Palantir is completely counterintuitive, especially to technical experts. The FDE thing was viewed as if you weren't going to get a multiple. I was viewed as this magical wizard who could get the smartest people in the world to work on something that was de facto stupid.
We were, quote-unquote, terrible at public relations, and we stood up for the U.S. government even when it was really, really unpopular. There are a lot of people in the audience who agree with that. But, as importantly, look at the results. Look at the fruits we bore. Look at the people we have on our side.
Then you get to the other side. It would be easy just to dismiss the other side as stupid or as not knowing what's going on. Let's take the intellectually rigorous version of why you would be against what we're doing. There's a misconception that AI and technology are going to exclude everyone who's not in this room. A lot of people who are protesting are actually protesting the idea that there's no way to get into this room.
In fact, the way aptitude and the implementation of things have worked, they're just wrong. Because they've assumed that, they then go into what I would call super-regressive, nonworking philosophical or empirical models, where they assume the losers are noble. But what they're really assuming is that they can't win.
Then you get to more subtle things. I do think there's an issue with our elite institutions, which have taken the best and brightest and the most valuable things you could teach someone and turned them into something Stalinist that is anticorrelated with everything that works in the West, like individual accomplishment.
If you had to say what is the central thing we do in America better than anyone else, it's allowing people to express their individual artistry in a way where you win with no apologies. Because they think they're on the losing side of this, they assume morality can't be against them. They are trained to believe that and to understand it.
Of course, if you're a professor at Berkeley teaching about Heidegger, you think losing is good because you lost. That's the whole reason you think that. You think that because you are the noble loser. But again, where it gets super, super dangerous—and where I do think we have to do a better job—is that you can't just assume there's no truth in what they believe, which is that we have not done an adequate job of helping people at the bottom.
Is some part of their criticism about the situation in Gaza?
Oh, so now you can get to that. No. First of all, I get yelled at about—you know what I get yelled at most about? It's actually enforcing the border. That's number 1.
Our southern border.
Our southern border. Again, I'll go through all 3 issues. So, they're legitimate issues to go over, but I just want for those of you who don't know the history. For decades, I got yelled at primarily for supporting special operations in America. You just have to imagine that I'm being protested for bringing soldiers home alive and killing our enemies. These are people who serve our country and have been largely screwed by both parties. Both parties have totally screwed them.
So that's what I got yelled at about. I got yelled at about that every single day. Then I got yelled at under Biden, under Obama, Biden. Especially, obviously, if Trump is doing it, you're definitely getting yelled at for enforcing the border.
I don't understand how, in the world of AI, you cannot be for somewhat of a constrained border, because we can make it work for every single person who's actually American, and we can make laborers more valuable. We need extra labor that isn't either completely the most talented in the world, like many people in this room, or bringing skills.
Also, we have enough transparency. You can't say you don't know who's in your country. It's complete BS. It's completely anticorrelated, by the way, with being progressive. I grew up in the most progressive family ever, and every Friday night at Shabbat, there was a lecture on how the Republicans were screwing our country by undermining the worker and bringing in cheap labor.
So, okay, I got yelled at about that. Then I got yelled at—actually, mostly and then commercially—about how, “How could you have these FDEs? It's going to blow up your multiple.” Now everybody wants to be an FDE.
But now you're getting yelled at primarily about ICE. What's going on? Is the treatment just?
The one thing I would say—and we can go through each one of these individual things—is that the weird, obvious fact is this: If you care about not being surveilled illegally, if you care about the treatment of people who come into the country illegally but deserve adequate treatment, and if you care about lives in Gaza, in Ukraine, and all over the world where Palantir is used, you're going to want the best software in the world.
It's the only way you can reduce and more precisely target the people, justifiably, and actually the only way where you can say, “This person did this, and they deserve to go.” Each one of these things has to be steelmanned.
Let's do that for the second one, the border. Tucker said yesterday, when he spoke to President Trump, that there was no way to know: Is there 30 million? Are there 30 million people here illegally? 40 million? 50 million? Whatever it happens to be. You say you call BS on that. Is that right?
No, I just say we could easily do it. I'm not calling BS on that. I'm actually saying it's a very, very hard problem. But in the world of AI and software, you can't say it can't be done.
It could very easily be done if we put cameras everywhere and just did facial recognition. But we don't want to live in that.
It could be very easily done if you eviscerate our civil liberties.
Yeah. That's not being done, right?
That's like saying, “I could grow your revenue at 400%, but I'll lose money in perpetuity.” That's not a business.
Yeah, of course. And so let's talk about what the solution to that would be.
The border issue is actually a bit overstated. You have 80–90% of the country believing the border should be orderly. That is actually something that most people—
Okay, sorry, I just have to interrupt you. 80–90% of people believing in it happening are completely disconnected.
Of course, whatever the reason the Biden administration didn't do it, that's over, and now we're here and it's closed. But what would your solution be to identifying the people who are—
Well, again, I think you're jumping over a lot of things. It happened. Okay. What's interesting about political parties in America is that they're anticorrelated with what they claim.
Democrats claim to be progressive, like me. Having a border is not progressive. President Trump is conservative. Having a border is progressive. Unfortunately, until we change our polity so that the people actually get a say on the border—
By the way, the single best example of this is in Europe. How do you explain the complete dysfunction in Europe? Most Europeans—Germans, and there are many Germans in the audience—hello. How many of you guys are happy with the immigration situation you have in Germany? None. How many will talk about it publicly? How many will do anything?
The polity will frame the issue so that there is no solution. The only solution is to accept a solution no one wants. And that's what we had. It's not—and part of the problem is that the reason the border is such an interesting thing is that politicians do not want to address the real problems of society, which would mean that the workers of today have more value tomorrow than they have today, because they have no earthly clue how to do that.
They're like, “We'll just open the border and we'll get free labor, and if you're on the left, we'll get people who will vote for us.” The reason why, if you kind of steelman your questions—Gaza, Ukraine, the border—you have to raise the moral standard. Again, the way you led this is like, “If we just put up a camera, yes, you can stop terrorism, or you can have civil liberties.”
It's a little bit like you can have growth without revenue, or you can have revenue without growth. If you want to solve the problem, you have to increase civil liberties and stop people from being in your country illegally. The reason it doesn't happen is because there's slippage in the execution, which is absolutely purposeful.
If we don't want this country to be what Europe is now—and I lived in Europe most of my life—my grandmother, if German law made any sense, would be German, and I would have a German passport. If we don't want that, you have to close the border. You have to make sure that people who have a right to be here get to stay. People who don't have a right to stay get treated fairly.
By the way, both sides have to step up. It's not enough to say, “I'm against the border,” or whatever, but have no solution for what's going to happen to people, which is unfortunately my point.
What's your solution—just your personal solution—for what to do with the 30 million people who are here illegally? What would you do?
First of all, my personal solution would be to divide the pie. Everybody who's criminal, criminal-adjacent, or has anything to do with crime is going to leave, and I'm going to make it so that they self-deport, because I'm going to come tomorrow in a way you don't like. That's number 1. And there's 90%.
No, that's easy to agree on. Nobody wants felons here. It's easy to agree on.
Yeah, but the paradigm is that it's easy because, again, you're like, “Civil liberties”—but in any case, these things are much harder than they look. As an example, how do you do that without eviscerating our civil liberties? How do we make sure the criminals—how do you know someone's a criminal? What standard of practice do you use to define if someone's criminal? Are all criminals the same?
De facto, if you go with the broad brush the way you basically are, it's like, yes, but being in the country illegally is a felony. Killing someone, or potentially killing someone, is a different kind. How do you deal with the people who are around them? How do you deal with law-enforcement databases that aren't made public to you? How do you deal with imputed data? How do you deal with data? How do you—do you predict?
But that's the question. You're restating the question. I'm asking you to answer it.
Well, I'm restating the question. It's a question.
I think that's the thing. Let me—I'm hoping you'd answer it. Let me flesh this out a bit. Look, everyone on the right at least agrees that we should have a strong border. One of the criticisms or concerns that I hear on the right, or from civil libertarians, is that Palantir has a large-scale data-collection program on American citizens—not foreign terrorists, not illegals, but American citizens. Can you just clear that up and say either that Palantir is not doing that, or under what circumstances you do?
Yeah. First of all, I just want to say that, technically, there's a version of this answer that I'm going to give you. We had a Democratic administration come to us and basically ask us to do a Muslim database. You would think, given the way I'm kind of besmirched as some kind of—I don't know, it's like a Jewish conspiracy—that would be the first thing, according to them, I would do. We've never done anything like this. I've never done anything like this.
I love these questions about skeptics because I actually love skeptics. I tend to divide the world into Palantir Derangement Syndrome, which I don't spend a lot of time on, and people who are anti-builder; Palantir skeptics; and people who don't like Palantir. If you're a Palantir skeptic or you don't like us, I want to engage.
Any technology that works can be abused. We are the single worst technology to use to abuse civil liberties, which is, by the way, the reason why we could never get the NSA or the FBI to actually buy our product. Until recently, intelligence institutions would never buy our product. You laugh because it's obvious: if you want to do data analytics in a way that eviscerates our civil liberties, you don't want ACLs, you don't want branching, and you don't want pipelining.
You don't want logs.
You don't want logs, and you don't want serialization and deserialization in your product. If you have serialization and deserialization in your product, that's intelligible. You are basically creating a product that's going to be really, really hard to abuse. The logs are immutable in Palantir.
The single most civil-liberties-heavy place in the world is hating on us every day. And you know what they're buying every day? Palantir. It's called Europe.
And you know why? Sorry, I want to get to this because this is important. I get basically attacked by skeptics and anti-Palantir people who deserve an answer. By the way, this is a lesson for you: do not believe anything I'm saying. If you're online watching—I don't know, Nick Fuentes—call me part of the Jewish conspiracy. Do yourself a favor and say, “Yeah, that could be really interesting.” Spend 20 minutes looking at the product.
Spend 20 minutes looking at the product and say, “Is this not the hardest product to abuse in the world? Is it not built to be?” By the way, then I'll get to direct answers to your questions. Those civil-liberties protections we built into Palantir Gotham are the same things that we use to orchestrate large language models, the same way we orchestrate internally, and the same things you will need to make any enterprise in the world work.
Every enterprise in the world, public or private, needs serialization and deserialization, ACLs, branching, and some kind of scaffolding to make the LLMs work. That means the LLMs have the ability to do a taxonomy on your business without touching the business; that you can control where they're deployed; that they don't have access to your data; that you have immutable logs; and that you can measure the output against high-fidelity data sets that can be viewed in any permissible way, with the permissions enforced.
It's the hardest product in the world to abuse. I'm telling you, we've never done anything like this. Please verify. Do not trust me. Certainly, do not trust the P.E. By the way, as a rule, the one thing I would say critically on the outside is: do not trust anyone who's never built anything.
It's so easy to have all these opinions about how the world works, how data works, how businesses work, and how we got off the ground. “I'm a conspiracy. Somehow they gave it to me, but not you,” even though I'd be the least likely person to get to sue the U.S. government twice. We had to hire the most important engineers in the world and be laughed and shat upon by the whole world for 20 years before anyone took it seriously, because we were a conspiracy.
You know why people believe it? Because they've never had a job. They've never built anything. There's no—that's just not the way the world works. For me to succeed, just like for you to succeed, you're going to have to be 10 times better than anyone else in the room, or you will fail. That's true for me. That's true for you. That's true for every American.
And it's always been true.
It's always been true. Anyone who tells you that's not true, you are the mark. You are the mark. If you're being taught—and that's what I would tell the protesters or the college students—you are the mark. They're telling you I'm succeeding because I just got it handed to me and somehow it's unfair.
No one handed anything to anyone at Palantir. Palantir Gotham is still the best product on the market. No one even tries to compete with Foundry. Go ahead. Go try to build it. Try to organize a team of people as good as Palantirians. Go ahead. Try, try, try to do it for 20 years. Try to build a visioning game.
I would like to try to ask a question.
Sorry. One second.
All I want to say is I'm glad you're on our side.
So then, my lord, try to build ontology and FDEs 5 or 6 years before anyone thought it was a thing. Try to raise the capital. Try to be laughed at. But to your questions: no, we are not surveilling U.S. citizens.
No, our data is not being used to aggregate and create an imputed view. You could say, “Do you do it directly? Do you do it indirectly?” That’s a fair question. No. Would I do this? You don’t have to believe me, but I’ve never done this in 20 years. I do a lot of constructive engagement internationally, including with countries, because people know I’m kind of on their side in the West.
I’ve told every single major leader I’ve ever dealt with that I would not do something, and it’s cost—and, by the way, it’s cost Palantir a lot of money. We never worked with China. We never worked with Russia. We never worked with adversarial countries. We got laughed out of the same room.
Okay. This morning, there was a report that there was some sort of attack that Israel conducted inside Qatar against the terrorists of Hamas. I just want to give you a chance to talk about Israel, Gaza, and that whole conflict. You’ve talked about it a lot, and you have a lot of opinions. People have tried to attack you and mischaracterize some of the things you said.
Well, actually, they’ve often characterized what I’ve said correctly.
Oh. Okay.
For me, there are just fundamental issues. Does Israel have a claim to the land? Yes. Does Israel have a right to defend itself? Yes. Has Israel done something America would not have done under these circumstances? I think America would have been a lot more brutal.
Now you get to the humanitarian thing, and I’ll say, abstracting from there, I believe progressives in this country are working day and night to hurt poor people in this country. I don’t believe they’re progressive. Through direct and indirect engagement, I am clearly not in favor of Palestinian innocent people being killed. I am not in favor of that.
The question is, are you allowed to fight a war? The other point is, if you want to minimize innocent human life being killed, you’re going to have to use software. This is going to have to be better in the future than it is now. It’s true that Israel’s ratio of innocent to non-innocent casualties is better than anyone has ever had in the history of humanity, and it’s going to have to be better in the future.
Does your software help send aid to the refugees, or can it?
You have to be very careful. I can’t go into exact detail. I’m not allowed to say where we’re used and where we’re not used. But sometimes there’s a trick people do: “Oh, I’m not used for this, and I’m not used for that,” when, in fact, we are used in Israel.
As a generalization, what we’re used for in Israel is something most people in this audience would be very supportive of, and it’s actually been very precise and deadly. I support that.
Alex, yesterday we had Tucker here, and he made some references to opening borders, declining fertility rates, and actual programs for assisted suicide in Canada—all of which may speak to the West’s intention of committing suicide. Do you think the West generally is committing suicide? If so, why? What gets us here?
You have to disambiguate America. I walked around your audience. This isn’t an audience committing suicide. This is an audience fighting to win.
Before I get to this question, the one thing I would tell you guys is that you’re going to have to fight to win, because currently I’m one of the few people onstage who speak up. You’re going to have to speak up and explain to people why you have the right to win, or it may be taken from you. You’re going to have to fight.
By the way, I don’t mean left or right here. Both parties need a little bit of a kick in the ass here. We have a right to win. We need to win. You have an individual right to fight to win in this country, and it should not be taken away from you. It could be, if you don’t stand up and tell people, “No, your idea is ridiculous. Let me explain to you how this works.”
The country I spent half my life in—I wrote this Ph.D. in Germany—is a country I know. I know France reasonably well, actually. When I’m talking about Europe, Europe is obviously not Europe. You have Eastern and Western Europe, and Eastern European countries are very, very different from Western European countries. Denmark is very different, and the Nordics are very different.
But generally, when people in this country are talking about committing suicide, they’re really thinking, in their mind’s eye, of Germany. It’s a country that arguably had the best industrial base in the world before software and AI, the best schools in the world, and vocational schools. Germany never neglected its working class. You have 2 different kinds of vocational schools in Germany, for lower-level and high-level vocational training. In Germany, vocational training puts you on the factory floor doing important things, and you earn a real salary with real benefits your whole life and have rights.
It has the best healthcare, the best life, and, for those of you who embrace a lascivious lifestyle, by far the best. Think about it. It has the highest level of data protection and the highest level of integrity. It was in the best position to win.
Suddenly, they blew up the energy market. They blew up immigration, and they blew up, essentially, their tech scene. Now it’s very hard to answer the question, “What is the future?”
As a kind of sideline diagnostic, Peter and I—whom they should be calling every day on speed dial—they spend every day talking about us. For those of you who are German, you’ll know: every single day, 3 times a day, it’s, “Peter Darth Vader and I'm Lord Cyph.” Meanwhile, they should be calling us.
The way you commit suicide in the West is that you stop believing your particular culture has something superior in it. Yes, Germany screwed up a lot of stuff in World War II, but to believe that there’s nothing special, unique, and uniquely valuable about German culture is insanity. It’s complete insanity. There’s nothing wrong with saying you’re proud to be German. In Germany, you’re literally far right of center if you’re like, “I’m proud to be German.”
One of the crazy things about Palantir is how German we are. We take everything to the nth degree and then recatenate the thing before we make a decision. Every single person at Palantir.
So, I get that Germany has this problem, to some degree, with being able to look in the mirror, but what about France and Britain? They won World War II. Why are they pursuing the same policies?
Canada.
And the policy we’re talking about, just to be clear, is allowing an extreme amount of immigration.
Well, I’m trying to ask if there’s a thread that can connect these things. Again, the jump-off place here is that, for very different and very nonconnected reasons, they all decided there was nothing special about their culture.
Right?
France would be an even better example, because they have a much better narrative. They actually had a resistance. It wasn’t as big as people say, but it existed.
The crazy thing about LLMs is that they should have been built in France. The whole center of gravity should be in France. The 2 best math cultures in the world are Russia and France, and we hire ad nauseam from France.
But France gave up on 2 things, and France actually might be the better example. For those of you who aren’t French, France is religiously focused on meritocracy. They have this one school you have to get into. It’s all about math. The reason it’s about math is that the socialists in France decided that having a high verbal IQ was class-based. They therefore adhered religiously to meritocracy, and the whole definition of it is mathematical aptitude.
France is complicated. You have the far right, the far left, and everything in between, somehow. It’s very hard to articulate in France why you think French culture is better than any other culture in Europe from a French perspective.
Concretely, if you want to build a product, if you build it in France, it should be absolutely mathematical and aesthetic. If you build it in Germany, it’s going to have to be conceptual and manufacturing-based. You’re going to have a different tech scene and a different way of organizing it.
Last but not least—and this is the thing we have to fight for the most—they’ve become anti-meritocratic. If you’re in Germany or France and you’re the best of the best of the best, you’re going to wait 30 years before you have a real job.
Why had they become anti-meritocratic?
Well, there are again the people out there protesting, or the faculty members at Berkeley who have taught them to protest. A lot of strays from Berkeley. We could pick on Stanford, but they equate morally losing in the real world with winning immorally, and it seems like a crazy way to think because, in the end, everyone—
Christian value.
I ask this because I heard someone give a talk about this, where the moral spectrum used to be strong and weak. You know, cavemen: the strongest would survive and the weakest would die, and that was how we measured what was right and wrong. Then what became right and wrong was this notion of good and evil: turn the other cheek, compassion, et cetera.
Now, look, there are many, many different schools of Christianity. Even in this case, Lutheran Christianity and French Catholic Christianity are basically not correlated. They're both Christian. What's special about America was Calvinism: we are the most Calvinist culture in the world, and actually the protesters are anti-Calvinist.
What does Calvinism mean? Calvinism celebrates success. De facto, almost everybody in America—whether you're Jewish, Muslim, or Christian—the underlying backdrop of America is this Calvinist view. And the anti-Calvinist cultures of Europe, Lutheranism, and other kinds of cultures, they do equate—behind every great success is a great crime, a famous Voltairean classic.
We don't have this in this country. If this slips, you basically end up in a situation where everybody who is succeeding, or is perceived to be in a group that is disproportionately succeeding, ends up on the firing line. What does that happen to the whole society?
Are we seeing that with anti-Semitism?
One of the more interesting facts about France is that between 1961 and 1991, its GDP grew faster than America's.
So this is a very special culture. The anti-Semitism—
Well, I don't particularly like it. I actually think it should be disambiguated. Someone liking or not liking a Jewish person, or being skeptical of Jews, that's irrelevant. Somebody who has Jewish derangement syndrome and wants to burn down the whole society to get rid of the obvious fact that Jews do well under a meritocratic situation—that's a problem for everybody, not just for Jews.
It should be very much focused. In private, I'm very critical of advocacy groups, and I'm constantly hanging up on them. Of course I'm not going to give you any money. That's the most ridiculous thing ever. It's the best culture in the world.
The thing that becomes dangerous is when you have derangement syndrome. If you're a classical liberal, the inputs have to be really, really fair—as fair as we can make them—and the outputs are never going to be fair.
Alex, can I ask you about China for one second? We talked with Tulsi yesterday, and one of the things, just to connect the dots, is that we were able to designate these cartels as terrorist organizations. There's all this drug flowing in, and we're trying to shut that down. The precursors are still coming in very aggressively from China.
I'm curious: what is the geopolitical frame that we need to think about China in? How much are they facilitating everything that's happening at the southern border? How responsible may they be for the fentanyl epidemic in the United States? What should we do about it?
Well, it's funny. Obviously Palantir and I are wildly skeptical of the CCP, but I think I'm the highest-ranked Tai Chi practitioner in corporate life in the world.
You're, like—sorry, say that again. You're, like, high-level Tai Chi—
That video was very high-level internal martial arts. I'm not at that level, but among my corporate peers, it's like, yeah, I have the equivalent, in VO2 max terms, of, like, a 72 or something like that in Tai Chi.
The way the kind of part of the culture that I admire works in Tai Chi is that you put pressure on all parts of the system to expose the weak part of the system internally of your adversary. That's just the way Chinese—at least Tai Chi martial arts—works. They're not useful for fighting, but they are very useful for thinking.
If you want to engage with China, in Tai Chi terms, you better make sure the internal dynamics of this country are very strong. Magically, the external dynamics over there will shift.
They're trying to destabilize our country with fentanyl and TikTok, and you have concerns about—
Well, okay. Obviously—
Yeah, obviously.
But again, I'll tell you what. They're obviously—
I'm in full agreement.
No, yeah. No, but my version always of this is: it's their job to stabilize us; it's our job to be stable. Most people here are running successful businesses—
Well said. It's our job to be stable.
It's our job to be stable. The Tai Chi version of this is: you're not going to have to enter the fight if you're strong. There is no fight. If there's a fight, you're not a martial artist—the famous martial arts idea.
Correct.
This is the same thing in business. When you get to the point where you're competing with someone, you've really screwed something up. If you look at the Palantir version: do FDEs, do Ontology, orchestrate them at scale, grow 93%. Man, people don't want to work with the US government. People are like, "That's kind of hard and really unfun."
Let me give you a precise question here about these cartels who are bringing fentanyl into the country. They're killing 100,000 Americans a year. On 9/11, we lost 3,000 people, tragically. If they're not terrorists, then how would you define them? Should we be using the same test in our engagement with them, and should we be eliminating them as terrorists with prejudice?
I obviously agree with that. I think, honestly, the problem is that they even think they can get away with this. One of the more interesting things is, when you read people who are against America taking out these narco-terrorists, it's always something like, "We've got to use a reified—meaning overly deterministic—form of law," to the point where America has to die.
Back to your question.
Yeah. Due process for al-Qaeda makes no sense.
Well, the interesting thing here, actually, with a point of agreement, is that if you allow—okay, to take just an obvious example of fraud, Human Rights Watch—they'll take a standard, they'll move the standard, and the downstream consequence of it is that we've got to disappear and die, right?
But then, even worse than that, they're actually paving the way for fascism because Americans, and no one else, are going to tolerate that level of dysfunction. These are killing 50,000 to 100,000 of our people. The fact that they think they can get away with this is a real problem.
We should just—and the fact that somebody's going to say it's—again, you have the European version. If you allow it, you have to protect the data and find the terrorists, because otherwise you get a form of fascism. You get it on the left because we have terror attacks and fentanyl across our streets, and you get it on the classic far right, which is—
Alex, what did you mean earlier when you said progressives want you to be poor? I may be paraphrasing it, but what—
The modern progressive movement is clearly not progressive. Progressive is defined by the working class doing better tomorrow than it did today and knowing it.
Right. Okay.
To do that, you need things that you can do at scale now: vocational training on AI-based systems, making our laborers more valuable, obviously closing the border so that you don't reduce the amount that you pay people, and also eviscerate legal protections.
This is not progressive. It's not progressive, by the way, to have so little competence or willingness to use force that we get overrun by drugs. Who do those drugs go to? Disproportionately poor people of color.
It's not progressive to have crime rates. To be a civil war zone, to be a war zone, you have to have 5 deaths per 100,000. That's like half our cities. How's that progressive? What do you mean? You care about poor people so much, you're just going to let them kill each other?
All right, can you shift gears here? Alex, I think you've developed a little bit of a reputation as a defender of the West, and you've talked about that here. I'm wondering, can you criticize any aspect of Western foreign policy? For example, during the War on Terror, was it a good idea to occupy Afghanistan?
I've never been a neocon. I actually don't think that's the pro-Western approach. The pro-Western superiority thing is that we do what we do really well. Why are we trying to make people like us? I've never understood this.
By the way, the neocon thing, the pro-migration people, and the pro-occupation people abroad—it's the same philosophy. I don't actually think migration is working in the West because people don't want to change. Why are we teaching the Arab Middle East how to live better?
The countries that I won't go into by name that seem to love and revere me and Palantir, they're doing really well. They have a way of living their life. It works really well. It largely involves different ways of living than we would.
There’s no First Amendment. There’s really not a Fourth Amendment. And I’m not that interested in that. By the way, I think that destabilizes everyone.
So I am very in favor of using force where it’s needed. But force where it’s needed and doing occupation are completely different things.
You will see across the world people who want to convince Afghan villagers to be pro-feminist will also explain to you that the people who end up coming here are going to be pro-Western in their values three generations out.
I want to thank you for being on our side, and I want to thank my wife for buying your stock at $20.
Thank you.
No, Alex, we deeply appreciate you being here. I think that your voice is one of the most important voices in the world today, and I thought this was such an important voice to bring forward. I don’t see you do a lot of long form. I don’t see a lot of your long form get public.
I think this is so important for everyone to hear, to swallow, to digest, and hopefully to evolve and grow from it. I really appreciate you. Thank you so much for being here today. Please join me in thanking Alex Karp.
Thank you. Thanks. Yeah. Yeah. Thank you, sir.