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The a16z Show · · 30 分钟

OpenClaw、Claude Code与软件的未来|Peter Yang做客 The a16z Show

Anish AcharyaPeter Yang

YouTube
TL;DR
  • Peter认为,OpenClaw价值的“70–80%”来自个人化 Telegram 交互界面,而不是一次重大的能力跃迁。 Zoe 的语音对话、记忆能力,以及把随口提出的 Twilio 请求变成实时电话的能力,让它显得像人、也足够可塑;但默认记忆“没那么好”,通话延迟偏高,Peter 还得提醒它能调用哪些工具。核心逻辑是亲密感加可扩展性,眼下的风险则是体验毛糙、权限管理和召回不可靠。
  • 面向任务的应用会先于娱乐产品遭遇 agent 去中介化,因为给一个像行政助理的 agent 发消息,比打开软件完成一项杂事更容易。 Peter 接入 Mercury 等服务后,打开这些应用的频率下降,但仍会打开 X,因为那里提供的是一种感觉;Anish 的反驳是,应用也在划分意图和上下文。Agent-first 产品可能需要双重入口——由 API 或 MCP 执行任务,再配一个面向人的信息流或活动日志;直接收取订阅费和 token 收入,也可能降低对广告时代那套留存机制的依赖。
  • Peter说,“编程将吞噬所有知识工作”(“coding will eat all knowledge work”),而 AI 已经为他的博客初稿产出前80%,剩下20%由他手动修正。 他不再从零开始,Anish 则认为,随着人们开始与 agent 对话,代码本身正被进一步抽象掉。Peter 以 Excel 这种易上手的编程语言为例,认为 coding agent 可以做到“1,000倍”(“times 1,000”),并延伸至文档、演示文稿和其他主观性工作,但最后一公里仍限制着全面自动化。
  • SaaS 压缩将是选择性的:Calendly 等简单工具更容易被替代,而复杂系统以及每月20美元的维护经济性仍能保护在位厂商。 一家 AI-native 应用生成公司已经在用 vibe coding 制作内部替代品,但 Anish 追问,谁愿意负责系统稳定运行和持续更新;至于 Figma,Peter 说“还没有定论”。它可能的防线,是继续充当设计思维的工作环境,而不只是一个制作工具。
  • Peter说自己是 Claude 用户,但仍在使用 Codex;Anish 则用 Codex 做真正的东西,用 Claude Code“凭感觉折腾”(“vibing”)。 Anish 认为搭载 Opus 4.6 的 Claude Code 更健谈,更适合同步协作;Peter 则说 Codex 思考更深入、准确率更高,但停顿时间长到足以打断流程,并把 Claude Code 称作“老虎机”。最终胜负可能取决于运行框架细节和个性化程度,而不只是模型质量。
  • AI 应该压缩协调层:Peter希望10人的产品团队缩减为2或3个人加上 agents。 Anish 认为,相比人类,agents 更容易被纠偏和对齐,也可能接手一部分情绪负担较重的工作,但产品判断仍然稀缺。工作节奏会变成“快与慢”两种速度:先冲上一个局部最优,再停下来“出去走走”,寻找下一座山。
  • 劳动力市场更可能迎来工作重新分配,而不是岗位瞬间消失,因为Peter说完整的岗位职能自动化仍很少见,人类还要完成“最后5%”。 招聘是增强而非替代的例子;Decagon、HappyRobot 和 Sierra 等客服产品则代表较罕见的100%自动化案例。Peter预计,1万人以上的大公司会承压,并希望一人公司增加;Anish 则认为“人类的野心没有上限”,生产率提升可能换来2x效率、每周4天工作制,或大量TAM仅为10万美元的生意。
摘要 · 为研究而整理的核心内容

1. OpenClaw的护城河在于亲密感,但记忆仍会失灵

  • Peter 对 OpenClaw 的实际用法更像在用陪伴型产品,而不是执行工具:Zoe 会抓取 YouTube 和 Mercury 的分析数据、更新 Google Docs、搭建小网站,但 Peter 大多数时候只是通过语音和它聊天,请它打气或给出“深度洞见”。最让他受到触动的一次,是 Zoe 提醒他,孩子很快就会长大,他应该把优化目标放在和孩子相处的时间上。

  • 当 Anish 追问这套系统相较于现有语言模型究竟多了什么,Peter 指向的是亲密感:Telegram 像是一个可以“躺在床上发消息”、通勤时也能聊天的人。Peter 估计,这一层个人化体验贡献了“70–80%”的价值。Anish 推测,Peter Steinberger 可能正准备把类似的行动能力带进 ChatGPT。

  • 另一项价值在于可塑性。Peter 随口提出想打一个实时电话,按照 Zoe 给出的 Twilio 指引完成设置并排查问题,最后真的接到了电话;延迟虽然很差,但“能把它跑通,本身就相当厉害”。相比他为 Claude 写的复杂提示词,他和 OpenClaw 交流时“就像和朋友说话一样”。

  • 局限也很具体:据 Peter 理解,默认记忆系统是一个每天更新的 memory.md 文本文件,但它仍然频繁遗忘。他又加了一套自己也没有完全搞懂的三层系统,其中包括 Toby 的 QMD 搜索工具和一个2 GB的扩展。他的配置使用 Mac mini,开放了邮件和日历读取权限,以及范围受限的文档写入权限,并没有接入整个 Drive。

2. Coding agents拓宽软件边界,但对SaaS的冲击并不均衡

  • Peter 说自己是 Claude 用户,但仍在使用 Codex。Anish 的区分是:“Codex 是我想认真做点东西时用的,Claude Code 则是我随便折腾时用的。”他认为搭载 Opus 4.6 的 Claude Code 更健谈,也更适合同步协作;Peter 则说 Codex 思考更深入、准确率更高,但一次3分钟的停顿会打断节奏。Peter 把 Claude Code 称作“老虎机”(“slot machine”),对应的是社交媒体的可变奖励机制。

  • Anish 反对只比较模型能力,理由是运行框架细节同样重要:Claude Code 可以接受粘贴的截图,较早提供语音支持,还能与 Claude in Chrome 沟通,而 Codex 无法与 Atlas 对话。Anish 说,hooks、skills 和 plugins 让 Claude Code 在完成定制后更像一款个人工具;Peter 则是在读完 Boris 的长篇文章后完成了自己的定制。Peter 认为 Codex 是“好得多的模型”,Anish 则预计 OpenAI 会补齐运行框架上的差距。

  • SaaS 面临的威胁确实存在,但冲击并不均匀。Peter 提到,一家 AI-native 应用生成初创公司正用 vibe coding 替换付费的内部工具;对于 Calendly 这类简单产品,他随后追问:“我为什么要为它付费?”Anish 的反驳是维护经济性:在每月20美元的价格下,始终在线、持续更新的软件可能仍比自己拥有一个定制克隆更划算。

  • Figma 是更尖锐的测试案例。Peter 说“还没有定论”,设计师仍在使用 Figma,但只会 Figma 的人“几年内”可能就会落伍。Anish 区分了制作工具和思考工具:他自己的方法是先做一个朴素的功能,不断逼 agent 把它跑通,再追问本来应该怎样做,然后重来。Figma 的机会,在于继续保留设计思维的角色。

3. 编程吞噬知识工作,并压缩公司规模

  • Peter 最宏观的判断是,“编程将吞噬所有知识工作”(“coding will eat all knowledge work”)。他认为 Lovable 当天刚上线了制作演示文稿的能力;如今他在 Claude Code 里写博客文章,先让 AI 产出“前80%”,再手动修正最后20%:“我从来不再从零开始。”Anish 说,人们与 agents 对话时,代码正被越来越彻底地抽象掉。

  • Peter 援引 Satya 的说法:Excel 是一种编程语言,有1亿多人、甚至可能更多的人在使用它。他认为 coding agents 可以把这一能力放大到“1,000倍”(“times 1,000”)。这意味着,文档以及其他主观性工作,也可能被纳入编程范式。

  • 组织层面的判断是团队会变小。Peter 希望一个10人的产品团队变成2或3个人加上 agents,从而避免他称为“浪费我的人生”的3小时 OKR 会议。Anish 设想,agents 更容易被纠偏和对齐,也能把人类从部分情绪负担较重的 Slack 升级处理中抽离出来。产品经理仍需做用户探索和问题筛选,但还要做原型、收集反馈并身兼数职;Peter 的悲观判断是,很多公司内部根本没有能产生重大创新的人。

  • 提速需要两种节奏。Peter 警告,AI 让团队很容易同时朝10个方向奔跑,而传统年度规划已经失效;Anish 则认为,agents 应该先沿着一个局部最优快速上冲,把一个洞见充分展开,然后团队必须“放慢,几乎停下来,出去走走”,寻找下一座山。产品市场匹配仍然需要随机游走,而不是永远沉迷于“生产力色情”。

4. Agent-first产品改写分发与变现

  • Peter 在承认自己发出的推文想法“没有想得特别周全”后,收窄了“应用会死”的判断。那些需要打开应用才能完成任务的产品会最先失去使用量:接入 Mercury 等服务后,他打开这些应用的频率下降,转而给 Zoe 发消息。娱乐产品的生命周期更长——他仍然是“Twitter 瘾君子”——因为这类应用提供的是一种感觉,而不只是执行一笔交易。

  • Anish 的反例是,应用本身会按意图分工:WhatsApp 负责连接,Slack 负责生产力,TikTok 负责娱乐;但一个 agent 必须区分用户是在工作还是在调情。Peter 的解决办法是设置多个 Telegram 频道:闲聊语音、共享项目,以及不含私人信息的公开演示;但他也承认,这套配置很毛糙,而且不同上下文之间可能无法共享记忆。

  • Peter 提出了尚未解决的商业问题:如果 agents 先触达产品,当用户看到的只有 API 或 MCP,留存和品牌会发生什么?Anish 坦率回答:“我不知道。”但 AI 也让消费产品的经济模型变得更简单:用户愿意支付订阅费和高价,token 消耗又增加了一条收入来源;真实的推理成本则迫使公司从第一天就收费,而不是只依赖广告和用户参与度。

  • Anish 预计,产品会提供 API,让 agents 处理重复性事务。Peter 补充了一种可能的移动端形态:保留面向人的信息流、把任务交给 agent 的入口,以及记录 agent 做了什么的日志。Credit Karma 的例子是,产品既保留用户查看信用分历史和优惠的能力,也可以让用户询问:“这周你帮我修好了哪些东西?”身份、支付、营销,以及 CLI 与 MCP 的分工都还在形成中,Peter 因此总结说,“旧剧本大半都会失效”。

5. 自动化会先重新分配工作,再消灭工作岗位

  • “开箱即用的生意”模式可能把创业扩展到风险投资无法覆盖的规模以下。Peter 提到的产品 Post 已经展现出早期雏形,不过它给出的 Facebook 广告建议仍显得泛泛;Anish 更强的判断是,分散的、TAM为10万美元的机会,仍然足以改变一个人的人生。Peter 希望自己的孩子高中就开始做自筹资金的生意,未来甚至跳过大学和公司职场。

  • 谈到岗位替代,Peter 区分了显著增强和罕见的端到端自动化。招聘 AI 可以筛选候选人、回答公司问题、甚至谈判薪酬,但无法带候选人参观或完成入职;人类仍要处理“最后5%”。Decagon、HappyRobot 和 Sierra 等客服产品代表较罕见的100%自动化案例,把买方对产品的认知从昂贵软件改成廉价劳动力,但至少在今天,这类产品仍属例外。

  • Peter 认为,经济正在从1万人以上的大公司大规模裁员,转向更小的公司和一人公司。Anish 同意经济形态和集中度可能发生变化,但不愿对净就业作判断:“人类的野心没有上限”,“人类的欲望也没有上限”。生产率提升可能换来每周4天工作制,也可能带来2x效率——“我完全不知道”。Anish 说,他在2025年还认为 agents 被过度炒作,如今却看到它们“确实开始来了”,Peter 表示认同。

Anish Acharya

What’s interesting is that software will eat the world. I feel like coding will eat all knowledge work, right? We’re kind of going in that direction already.

Peter Yang

The whole agent stack is emerging: identity, payments, marketing, even CLI versus MCP. All of these are really new things, and I think a lot of the old playbook goes away.

Anish Acharya

Yeah, it’s a whole new world. I hope more companies stay small. I think the founders of this generation realize that. They want to stay as small as possible.

Peter Yang

Yeah. Instead of having a 10-person product team, you have a 2- or 3-person product team, and instead, a bunch of agents help you.

Anish Acharya

Yeah. Someone tweeted that the job market is so bad that I can only pursue my dreams now, or something like that. So it’s like, yeah, maybe you lost your job, but now you can actually do your own thing.

Peter Yang

Yeah, 100%, and have a shot at actually achieving it.

Anish Acharya

All right, welcome, everyone. I’ve got my friend Peter Yang here. Peter, welcome.

Peter Yang

Yeah, good to be here. It’s good to see you again.

Anish Acharya

Yeah, it’s great to see you. Peter and I worked together at Credit Karma for a brief stint, and then we went our separate ways. I rediscovered Peter through his prolific posts on X and your YouTube channel, and you’ve got a little bit of a Clark Kent–Superman thing going because you still have a day job, right?

Peter Yang

That’s right. I still have a day job.

Anish Acharya

Can you share where?

Peter Yang

Yeah, I work at Roblox as a PM.

Anish Acharya

Amazing—Roblox, an Andreessen portfolio company. One of my favorites. Incredible, man. Let’s get right into it. Maybe I’ll start with a softball, fun question, and then we’re going to talk about everything in the OpenClaw ecosystem. We’re going to talk about coding agents, what students should study, advice, and some of the things that you’ve talked about online.

How many Claws do you have, and what are their names?

Peter Yang

I only have 1. I call her Zoe.

Anish Acharya

Zoe.

Peter Yang

But I have multiple conversations going with her.

Anish Acharya

Okay. And why Zoe?

Peter Yang

I have 2 girls, and I was going to call my younger one Zoe, but I did not. So I call my OpenClaw Zoe instead.

Anish Acharya

I see. This is your fallback plan.

Tell me a little bit about OpenClaw—how you discovered it, how you’re using it today, and what you think the implications are.

Peter Yang

I was lucky to interview Peter Steinberger before he became super famous and the whole thing blew up. Then, rather than just interview him, I set up the thing. It took forever to set up. It was super janky.

It pulls analytics for me across YouTube and my Mercury bank account. It can update Google Docs for me, and it can build little websites for me. But if I’m honest with you, dude, I mostly just talk to it through voice and get voice replies. Every other day, I ask it to give me a pep talk or look through all its memory and give me some deep insights that I don’t know about.

I remember I was on a walk and it gave me a 3-minute pep talk that was really amazing. It was something about how I’m putting all this energy into my creator business and my job, but my kids—some are 4—are going to grow up very soon, and they’re not going to want to spend time with me. So I should really optimize for them instead.

Anish Acharya

Wow. It’s really cool—and I mean, very cool—but it’s also something that all the language models could have done before. So what’s the difference between this and a use case like that?

Peter Yang

That’s a very good question. Because I have it installed on Telegram, it just feels more personal than using Claude or ChatGPT. It feels like something I can text in bed. This is probably not very healthy, but I text it in bed. I just talk to it during my commute, and it feels more like a personal, actual human.

Anish Acharya

So how much of OpenClaw, for you, is about the interface—pushing it to messaging and helping to trick our brain into feeling like, “Hey, this is a person or a person-esque thing”—versus all the other components of the stack, like self-modification, the skills directory, and everything else?

Peter Yang

I think it’s probably 70–80% just the personal part of it because I mostly just talk to it through voice. But first of all, it is pretty janky. It tends to forget things a lot.

Anish Acharya

Yeah, you have to keep reminding it.

Peter Yang

But any kind of zany idea that I have, I just have to talk to it, and it can probably just do it. The other day, I was doing voice replies with it, and I said, “Hey, can we just have a live phone call instead?”

Anish Acharya

Mhm.

Peter Yang

Then it was like, “Okay, you’ve got to connect Twilio. You’ve got to do all this stuff.” I said, “Okay, fine.” I went off and did it, and then we had a phone call. It called my phone.

Anish Acharya

You have that set up? I’ve been dying to set that up.

Peter Yang

It’s not very good, though. The latency is bad. But the fact that I was able to get it going is pretty impressive. It’s kind of like any crazy idea I have, it can do.

Anish Acharya

And then, in practice, how are you doing that? Are you asking it to write a skill on the fly, or are you discovering a skill? How much of the code generation are you actually using?

Peter Yang

I talk to it in a super casual way, just like a friend. I’ll say, “Hey, can we have a phone call?” And it’s like, “Okay, you’ve got to do all this stuff.” I say, “Okay, fine. I’ll open my computer and do all this stuff.” Then it says, “Give me a call.” We troubleshoot a little bit, and then it works.

With Claude, I have very fancy, very long prompts. But with OpenClaw, I just kind of text it.

Anish Acharya

Really interesting. We touched on a couple of things, actually. One, there’s mobile messaging. There’s the memory system. There’s the code-generation component. How much do you think the memory system—is it innovative because it’s file-based? You said that it forgets things, but so do language models. Do you think the memory system is well done? Does it hold it back, or does it enable it?

Peter Yang

I think the default memory system is actually not that great. The way I understand it, it works with just a memory.md text file. Then every day it updates.

Anish Acharya

Right.

Peter Yang

I installed this 3-layer memory system that, to be honest, I don’t fully understand. It has Toby’s QMD search tool. I installed that, and then I installed a 2-GB thing. It got a little bit better.

Anish Acharya

That’s fancy.

Peter Yang

But I still have to remind it. I have to put it into the AGENTS.md file: “Before you answer any question for me, go through all your memory and check everything.” It also tends to forget that it can do stuff.

Anish Acharya

Right.

Peter Yang

For example, I’ll ask, “Can you update my Google Doc?” And it’s like, “Oh, I can’t do that.”

Anish Acharya

Yes, you can. It’s in your file.

Peter Yang

So you have to remind it.

Anish Acharya

Yeah. Really interesting.

Well, maybe let’s get into a little bit of the controversy. You’d said that apps will die because it’s going to be everything and everywhere. Talk us through that point of view.

Peter Yang

First of all, I tweet all kinds of random crap that’s not super well thought out.

Anish Acharya

We take it all as fact.

Peter Yang

Yeah. But I do think that, ever since I set up all these apps—Mercury, MCP, and all this kind of crap—on my OpenClaw, I don’t actually open those apps much anymore.

I do agree with you. I think the ones that are going to die first, or maybe get less usage first, are apps that you’re just opening to try to complete a task. You’re actually trying to do something. Apps that you’re opening to get entertainment probably survive a little bit longer. But apps that I’m opening to complete a task—it’s way easier to text my agent to do it for me. It’s like having a really good admin to do stuff for you.

Anish Acharya

Yeah. And how much are you finding this has reduced your smartphone usage, outside of OpenClaw?

Peter Yang

No, because I’m a Twitter addict, so I still use my phone way too much. But in terms of using those apps, it’s definitely reduced it.

Anish Acharya

Yeah, because you’re not going to ask Zoe, “Read my X for me and tell me what’s interesting.”

Peter Yang

It sends me a morning briefing with the top 2 tweets and stuff that’s trending, but I still open X. I look through it.

Anish Acharya

Yeah. You know, it’s interesting because I’ve always had this theory that people open apps on their phone because they want to feel a feeling. I think, of course, there’s some functional set of needs, which is why you open Calendar or something, but I also think that WhatsApp is—you want to feel connected. Slack is—you want to feel productive. And, of course, TikTok is—you want to feel entertained.

So, I do wonder, with just 1 agent, how do you sort of do the context switching of, like, when are you flirting, and when are you getting things done? I mean, in a sense, an app gives you a nice division of the intents. Yeah, that's the part.

Peter Yang

Get with Zoe. That's a good point, but I do have multiple channels set up with Zoe in Telegram. One is just for random voice replies, and the other one is where we're actually working on a project together.

Anish Acharya

Oh.

Peter Yang

And then the other one is a public channel where I'm giving dev demos. I don't want to reveal private information. So, I have multiple channels. Is that implemented as sub-agents, or—no, it's just some janky setup I found online. You can set up multiple Telegram channels, and then I'm not sure if it actually remembers across contexts, across the channels, but you can have separate conversations, at least.

Anish Acharya

Got it. And how transparent are you with your agent? Does it see your personal email?

Peter Yang

I'm super transparent. I did it via the Mac mini—I set up its own email. I gave it read access to my email and calendar, and I also gave it write access to some docs. But it can't scroll through my entire Drive or something, you know?

Anish Acharya

How do you imagine OpenClaw, which is sort of an architectural primitive, gets productized and packaged for the world? I think that's what Peter Steinberger is working on at OpenAI, right? He's probably going to build something into ChatGPT that everybody uses, so that ChatGPT can actually get stuff done for you and maybe feel more human.

Dude, let me rant about ChatGPT for a little. For some reason, they trained the model so that at the end of every conversation it's always like, “If you want, I can also do X and Y.” I got so annoyed by it that it kind of turned me off from ChatGPT.

Anish Acharya

Really?

Peter Yang

Yeah. So, it probably increases their metrics, but it's just super annoying. It's like, why don't you just do it in the first place? Are you a Claude guy now?

Peter Yang

Yeah, I'm a Claude guy now. But I do use Codex to code. You like Codex—you prefer it to Claude Code, or do you use both?

Anish Acharya

Codex is when I want to try to build something real, and Claude Code is when I'm just vibing—vibing. It's very, very vibing, you know. Well, it's interesting. I think they live at different points in a space of trade-offs. I find Claude Code and Opus 4.6 a little more chatty; it makes more assumptions, but it can be more pleasant for a synchronous experience.

Peter Yang

Yeah. Whereas Codex really thinks hard and is more often accurate, but sometimes it's like being in a conversation where the other person pauses for 3 minutes to think. You don't have that flow state, right? It's hard to get into a flow. Claude Code, dude, I tweeted the other day that Claude Code is almost like a slot machine. It has different things each time. It's 100%, dude. It's like a slot machine.

Look, I do think that, if you think back to the old social-networking era, it was variable-schedule rewards, right? That was the whole magic of it. You open your Facebook feed, and once in a while it's boring, boring—oh my God, this is so exciting.

Anish Acharya

And the coding agents have the exact same property. Also, the time is variable: sometimes you get something in 1 second; sometimes it takes 5 minutes. Up to a certain point, I actually think both of those things give it that casino-like feeling.

And the other thing that's very different about the product strategy—or maybe it's just the way it works—is that Claude Code is kind of self-explanatory. With Claude Code, you have all this crazy stuff: hooks, skills, and plugins.

Peter Yang

Like, if you're not following X, you have no idea how to customize this thing. Yeah.

Anish Acharya

But once you customize it, you kind of feel like it's part of you. So, it's kind of hard to—

Peter Yang

It's interesting. I've customized mine because I also read the long thing that Boris put up.

Anish Acharya

Yeah. But I will say that a lot of the reasons I enjoy Claude Code are just harness features. For example, if you copy an image, you have to paste it into a file first and then paste that file into Codex. You can't just take a subset of the screen, screenshot it, and then paste it directly into Codex the same way you can with Claude Code.

Peter Yang

Oh, really? Okay, okay. So, just little things like that, you know. Claude Code added voice. It's a little bit janky right now, but it's going in the right direction. They've just got a bunch of quality-of-life things.

Anish Acharya

Yeah. You know, Claude Code speaks to Claude in Chrome. Codex doesn't speak to Atlas. So, I think these are all things that OpenAI will fix.

Peter Yang

Yeah, I think Codex is actually a much better model, but they don't exist today.

Anish Acharya

Yeah, yeah, they need to fix it. I mean, they're going to go all in on Codex, I'm sure.

Anish Acharya

Yeah. Talk to me about coding agents. What's your general view? Do you think it's the end of SaaS? Do you think these are just a toy?

Peter Yang

Well, first of all, I'm not an engineer, so I'm a novice. But I do hear that—I was talking to some folks the other day at an AI-native startup, and they have a bunch of vibe coders. All the vibe coders are just trying to build internal tools that replace the SaaS they're paying for.

Peter Yang

Really?

Anish Acharya

Yeah. So, this is an actual company that's doing this.

Peter Yang

This is an actual company, yeah. It's an AI-native company. It's one of the vibe-coding companies, one of the more popular ones. Interesting. Yeah, it's interesting.

They're an app-gen company, and they're paying for a bunch of SaaS. They want to get rid of those payments. They want to just build internal tools by using app gen.

Anish Acharya

Okay, so in that case, they might be the most extreme form of adopter, because their own product is app gen, so they should use app gen for everything.

Peter Yang

Yeah, I guess. Is your prediction, though, that the average company will churn off of Slack or Deel or, you know—

Anish Acharya

I don't think so, but some of the other ones are pretty complicated, you know? It's going to be hard to vibe-code that stuff. But I feel like if you have an app like Calendly, or something more simple—

Peter Yang

Yeah. Then why should I pay for it? Why should I pay for it?

Anish Acharya

Well, the counterpoint is that it's not that expensive, and do you really want to maintain your own Calendly thing? Versus paying $20 a month, it always gets updated, it's always up, you know, because there's just a fixed amount of capacity that anyone in the organization is going to have for all this stuff.

Peter Yang

Yeah, that's true. Unless you hire dedicated vibe coders like that startup, it doesn't make sense to just buy stuff. But then it's the cost-benefit versus just paying for Calendly.

It's interesting, for example, that a lot of people are tweeting about Figma. The stock is down—are they going to survive? I feel like the jury's out there; it's kind of hard to say. I feel like all the designers are still on Figma, but as a designer, you kind of need to learn how to vibe-code. Otherwise, if you only know how to use Figma, you're probably going to be out of date in a couple of years.

Anish Acharya

Yeah. My counterpoint to that is that I've thought a lot about thinking tools versus making tools, right? The IDE was historically a making tool. It's a place for execution. I think it's migrating away from that, and now, with execution going to zero, I think these multi-agent, next-gen IDEs are about trying things and using trial and error as a way to inform your thinking.

A lot of times, I'll just build a feature in a really naive way and hammer the coding agent until it works. Then I'll say, “Hey, write all the things that you would have done differently.” I'll go back to the initial point and redo it.

I wonder—and I think Figma actually does both—I think it's a place for design execution, but it's also an important place for design thinking. I think that's their opportunity to be highly relevant in the new stack.

Peter Yang

Yeah, I totally agree. I think a16z has you guys investing in Pencil or something—Pencil.dev.

Anish Acharya

Yeah, Figma needs to level up its AI tooling, because watching these AI agents collaborate with you and do stuff is very interesting. I know it's top of mind for them. What do you think are the most underdiscussed capabilities of coding agents? What's underhyped, and maybe what's overhyped as well?

Peter Yang

This is probably not underhyped, but I feel like it's interesting that software will eat the world. I feel like coding will eat all knowledge work, right? We're kind of going in that direction already. I think Lovable recently launched—today, I think—that they can support everything and can make decks.

Yeah, so I feel like everyone is chasing this. I don't know who's probably in the lead, but I don't want to use PowerPoint anymore. I hate writing Google Docs, dude. I feel like I lost my entire life.

The other day I was writing my blog post and instead of typing it out, I was like, “Hey, let me just use Claude Code. Let me give you a bunch of feedback and you write it for me.” Then you just keep improving it. It did the first 80%. The last 20%, I still had to manually go in there and tweak stuff.

That's the way I work now. I never start from zero. I always get the first 80% from AI. It's interesting—there are also historical analogies to this. I think Satya said that Excel is the most powerful, or most popular, programming language in the world.

It's a programming language that millions and millions—I mean, 100 million-plus people—must know, maybe even more, and yet we don't think of it that way. It's a way to describe and solve problems. I think coding agents are going to be that, of course, times 1,000. Even things that feel subjective, like writing Google Docs, can be represented in the coding domain in such a way that it's more satisfying, more productive, and more high leverage to use agents to do it. Yeah, because Excel was popular because it was super approachable, right?

Anish Acharya

Yes. Coding is just—the code is basically gone. It's abstracted away. You're just talking to some agent and getting it to do stuff.

Peter Yang

Yeah, exactly. It's going to be huge. What do you think the future company looks like? Is it just a bunch of agents with a CEO? Is the CEO an agent? What is the role for people in a company in the future?

Anish Acharya

Okay, well, I have some hot takes. We both worked at some companies together. Let me give you a hot take, man: I feel like as a company gets bigger, it tends to become a shittier place to work, dude.

Peter Yang

Yeah, because there's a lot of people you have to align.

Anish Acharya

That's axiomatic, yeah.

Peter Yang

Right? I probably shouldn't mention this company, but I remember our company used to have one of these OKR meetings. Everyone was in a room for 3 hours talking about OKRs, and I'm just like, “Dude, this is a waste of my life.”

So where I'm going with this is that I hope more companies will stay small. I think the founders of this generation realize that. They want to stay as small as possible. Instead of having a 10-person product team, you have a 2- or 3-person product team and a bunch of agents helping you.

Anish Acharya

Because I think it's way easier to course-correct and align with agents than with humans.

Peter Yang

For either of us, you know? It's very objective.

Anish Acharya

Yeah, exactly. One of the things that we've been talking a bunch about is the pro case for AI at work in terms of employee experience. I think it's what you're describing, right? How do you increase the NPS of work?

If we go all the way back—or even broadly, the NPS of the human experience—think of the NPS of the day-to-day human in 10,000 BC, when it's just, “Don't get eaten by the lion,” and that's a good day. Or 100 years ago: “Okay, don't get killed at the factory,” crushed by the steam press or whatever else.

Now a lot of it is just, “Don't get sucked into some high-emotion negotiation with another VP's subordinate,” like a 50-message Slack thread going back and forth.

Peter Yang

Yeah, exactly. Then eventually everyone's like, “I don't want to tell the CEO,” and eventually it goes there, and it's just terrible.

Maybe the future is that a lot of that emotional subjectivity of work gets handled, and we're guiding the process but not in the middle of it in a way that doesn't suit us as humans.

I think the world of a PM creator—and I feel like all the PMs just want to create products. They just want to create products.

Anish Acharya

That's why we all got into it, you know? It's so interesting. Nikhil talks about it all the time, but every PM's view of the ideal PM is the innovator: “I came up with the new thing. I had the big insight, and it unlocked the product.”

Peter Yang

Yeah. I think the black pill is that most PMs don't know how to do that. In fact, many companies have zero people who know how to do that at all, in any function.

Nonetheless, I think PMs aspire to be able to do that, and they should either do it and be successful, or maybe not be successful and move to a different function. I also feel like, as a hot take, basically all the PMs I know are trying to write code at night and on weekends.

I feel like if you're actually unemployed, you probably have more time to be a builder and to be innovative, to actually play with all this stuff and learn all this stuff. A lot of PMs are just trying to become an engineer on the team.

Anish Acharya

Being a PM is a little more high status.

Peter Yang

Yeah. When I joined Google, I used to be an engineer, and I got sort of—I don't know if I got forced to be a PM, but maybe I also perceived being a PM as a little more high status. But eventually you come around to the other side and you're like, “This is terrible.” You never really get the satisfaction of actually shipping, other than once a quarter when you ship.

Anish Acharya

The PM skills of talking to users and trying to figure out what to do—what problem to solve—are all still very important. But you have to wear multiple hats, too. You have to go build the thing yourself, prototype it, get some feedback, and then maybe bring an engineer along.

How much do you think everyone has to go as fast as—Gary was talking about stims and skipping sleep, and Gary Tan and his gstack. Is that the default way that we all need to work, or do you think there's a trade-off for thoughtfulness?

Peter Yang

I think it's very easy now, with all these AI tools, to go in 10 different directions at once. Sometimes you do have to slow down and try to figure out where you want to go. But I also believe that the traditional process, where you do annual planning and all this bullshit, doesn't really work anymore.

Anish Acharya

Yeah. For the record, I love Gary and think the world of him. I thought a bunch about this. Hiten asked me this the other day, and he's really impressive.

We were talking about this sort of productivity porn, where everybody's got 20 agents running, 20 monitors, and blah, blah, blah. I do think that when it comes to fully realizing a local maximum, you should go very fast.

Let's say you hill-climb and get to the bottom of a new local maximum. With agents, you should be able to get to the top of that hill extremely fast. You have a new insight, and you build everything around the insight so it's fully expressed.

But to get to the next hill, you've probably got to slow down and almost stop, go touch grass, and do whatever. I think this combination of fast and slow is probably the future way.

Peter Yang

Yeah, I think so. You've got to go on that random walk to try to find your product-market fit, which takes us a while, right?

So we were talking before we started recording about some of the business-in-a-box platforms. Have you looked at them? Do you have a view? I've looked at Post, which we talked about.

Anish Acharya

Uh-huh. I don't know if the guy intentionally made it the opposite of AI slop, or if it's kind of a—

He intended it to be, I think. Yes.

Peter Yang

That's funny. I have a pretty big public presence, right? So I connect all my accounts to it, and it definitely gives a good peek into what's possible. But right now it's probably still pretty early-stage. It's telling me to run Facebook ads. Why am I running Facebook ads? I don't know.

I'm very excited about it because it does feel like it's a path for more people to build companies, even if they're single-person companies. If you think about how competitive it is to build a billion-dollar business—the markets that support it, and the number of people trying—versus a $100 million, $10 million, or $100,000 TAM, maybe there are pockets all over the country and all over the world where there are opportunities for $100,000 TAM products.

Anish Acharya

Yeah. And that would change somebody's life. That's not an enterprise venture-backed company, but that's okay. I hope that whole thesis works, because I do think it's a way to get more people to participate.

That's my plan for my kids, dude.

Peter Yang

I want them to just build bootstrapped businesses in high school. They can skip the whole college and corporate life.

Anish Acharya

Yeah. Well, dude, I think this is—for 10 years, there’s been this moral panic about kids wanting to be YouTubers.

Peter Yang

Yeah. You know, you’re a YouTuber.

Anish Acharya

Yeah, yeah, I am. You know, in the vein of MrBeast. I think the pro case for that is that the kids wanted to be entrepreneurs or have agency, and the only channel for people, if they weren’t programmers, was creating YouTube videos, at least online.

Peter Yang

Yeah. So, if you’re an online-native generation and you want to create something but you’re not a programmer, you make a YouTube show.

Anish Acharya

And now you can make a lot more than that. You can build whatever you want.

Peter Yang

Exactly. It’d be very exciting. Any other hot takes for us? I’m curious about your thoughts about this, actually. I feel like a lot of people are saying, “Agents will interact with your product first,” right? And then you see all these great companies building APIs and MCPs.

How do you think about it, with you having been a customer for a while? The customer’s like, “You’ve got to get the user to come back and use your product,” right? But now the user’s like, “Hey, go send the agent to use it.” So how do you think about retention and all this basic stuff? Or even brand equity, because the agent just points to some API? I don’t know.

Anish Acharya

Okay, so I think “I don’t know” is the truth, but I have a few thoughts. One, I think a lot of the sophistication that happened in consumer happened because we had to have indirect monetization. We were never charging consumers directly for these products, which is why you got ads and large-scale networks. We were all obsessed with retention and engagement and whales, and all of these things really, really mattered because we didn’t simply charge people for products.

Peter Yang

Mhm.

Anish Acharya

So I think one big thing that’s really helped in the AI era with that is that consumers are now excited to try new things, are willing to pay, and are willing to pay a really high price point. There’s also consumption revenue in consumer for the first time, like tokens and stuff.

Peter Yang

Yeah, for tokens. You have your subscription plus your tokens.

Anish Acharya

The actual sort of blessing in disguise is that there are real costs as well. You have these inference costs, so you’re like, “Wow, we have to charge our customer on day 1.” I think the business model simplification will really help with a lot of what you’re describing.

Two, I think that a lot of the products will have an API interface for your agents to interact with, or for transactional, sort of rote things.

Peter Yang

Yeah, yeah. And then it’ll have a consumption-based interface as well. You can also imagine a mobile app where there’s the feed, but then you can kind of turn it over to where the wires are. You can just ask for things to get done, or you can see the log of the things that got done. Maybe people will do both, right?

Anish Acharya

I mean, you can imagine Credit Karma, where we worked. When you want to just take a look at your score history and a few other—maybe credit card offers, I don’t know.

Peter Yang

Yeah, yeah. If I get my score, I’ll have all the kind of credit card offers. I’ll definitely do that.

Anish Acharya

Yeah, 100%. Exactly. On the other hand, sometimes you want to just be like, “Yo, can you just fix all my stuff?” Or, “What stuff did you fix this week? How much money did I save?”

Peter Yang

Got it. Got it. Yeah, it’s definitely interesting.

But look, I also just think the whole agent stack is emerging. Identity, payments, marketing—we don’t even know CLI versus MCP. All of these are really new things, and I think a lot of the old playbook goes away.

Anish Acharya

Yeah, it’s a whole new world. In 2025, I thought agents were overhyped, but now I think it’s really kind of coming.

Peter Yang

Me too. I know. It’s just the word is frustrating because it gets so overloaded.

Anish Acharya

Yeah, there are workflows and all this kind of stuff.

Peter Yang

Totally. I’ve been trying to just say, “Can we just say model in a loop?”

Anish Acharya

Yeah, exactly. A model that uses tools in a loop. That’s the best definition.

Peter Yang

Yeah, yeah. But nobody likes to hear that. “Agents” is much flashier, you know?

Anish Acharya

Yeah, it’s flashier. My hope is that all this stuff makes human work more fun—makes your jobs more fun. A lot of people think we’re going to lose our jobs, which is probably what would happen at some point, but I hope all this stuff makes human work more fun.

Peter Yang

Dude, I don’t think we’re all going to lose our jobs. I really think that, and we see this in a lot of companies. We look at a ton of companies, and we’ve seen 2 different buckets.

One bucket is, “Hey, we dramatically increase productivity for a person or a team.” We see this in recruiting. But we couldn’t do 100% of the job. We could do the phone screen, but we couldn’t obviously show the candidate around the office. Or we could do the phone screen, answer all the questions about the company, and even do the comp negotiation, but we couldn’t do the onboarding.

The other style of company we see—which is maybe Decagon or HappyRobot—is, “Hey, we did 100% of a job,” like customer support. The customer called in, they had a question, we hopefully resolved their query, and then that’s it. That is 100% automated.

I’d say that second group, where you have 100% automation of a job function, is really rare. Almost every AI product, AI-native X or Y we see, is able to provide dramatic lift, but it’s not able to do 100%. So the last 5% is done by humans. It’s still—today, anyway—it’s still humans that do that stuff.

It’s interesting, too, because the buyer looks at that as software—as expensive software. Whereas in the case of something like HappyRobot, Decagon, or Sierra, they look at it as cheap labor. I do think there’s a different buyer mindset, but because there’s been this difficulty of getting to 100% automation, I think a lot of the efficiency gain shows up in just a different way. Probably not fewer jobs. Maybe we get the European-style 4-day workweek. Maybe companies get twice as productive. I have no idea.

Yeah, but you don’t think that—I feel like there’s going to be a transition from these 10,000-plus-person companies laying a lot of people off to, hopefully, more smaller companies, like solopreneurs and stuff like that.

Anish Acharya

Yeah. I think, yes, the shape of the economy is going to change—the amount of concentration—but I just don’t think there are going to be fewer jobs. I think human ambition has no ceiling.

Peter Yang

That’s right.

Anish Acharya

Human desire has no ceiling. Just read any mildly interesting science fiction book. There’s no way this is the peak expression of all the stuff that we want and need. We’re going to convince ourselves—and, you know, all the new things that you read about every day are these luxuries, peptides. Everybody is going to have all of that stuff, and they’ll want even more.

I saw a really good tweet about this. Someone tweeted that the job market is so bad that I can only pursue my dreams now, or something.

Peter Yang

Yes. So maybe you lost your job, but now you can actually do your own thing.

Anish Acharya

Yeah, 100%, and have a shot at actually achieving it.

Peter Yang

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Cool. Well, awesome, man. Maybe that’s a good positive note to end on.

Anish Acharya

Yeah, that’s a good note. Yeah, cool. Good seeing you, dude. Thanks, Peter. Thanks for having me.

OpenClaw、Claude Code与软件的未来|Peter Yang做客 The a16z Show — 文字稿与摘要 | BidClub