“下一场战役不是注意力,而是行动权”——GPT | Market Bubble #10
AnsemFaZe BanksLuca NetzGPT LiveSal
- Ansem 详细拆解了自己的代币如何成为“金融界的 MrBeast”:他判断 Bitcoin 的底部约在 $58.8K、Solana 的底部在 $69,同时接手了别人发给他的 ANOM pump.fun 代币,如今其钱包价值 $162M、持有 58% 的供应量。 他在两周内送出了约 $20–21M,而 MrBeast 是整个职业生涯才送出约 $200M;他的目标是“年底前”翻过这个数字,前提是“对 Solana 的判断正确、对市场的判断正确”。这套设计不是一次性砸盘,而是持续、分阶段的空投,把10万+持有者导向特定协议。
- Luca Netz 曾空投约 $1.5B 的 PENGU(占供应量的 50%),并看着它在 Liberation Day 前维持 $3B 市值;他在节目中承认,Ansem 的持续派发模式胜过自己的一次性设计:“回头看,这才是更好的策略。” 他总结出的教训可以直接转化为交易策略:当初应该签 reciprocal airdrop 协议——“我给很多其他人的社区做了空投”,却没有明确要求对方反向空投;他手里仍有一笔尚未分配的扩散基金,将根据 Ansem 的数据来部署。他还认同 Ansem 对 Pump.fun 的改法:“把代币打到尽可能低的位置,尽可能多地空投,这样回购才真正有意义。”
- Ansem 断言,名人币逻辑已经彻底死亡——“这可能是我在加密领域所有判断里错得最离谱的一次;他们全都在诈骗,一个不落。” 这也是 Andrew Tate 计划中的节目为何在最后一刻取消的原因:“我不会给这些[__]搭台。”机制很简单:缺钱的名人和匿名开发者合作,后者打包筹码、付钱让名人发几条推文,然后倒在所有人头上;即使 Ansem 亲自在洛杉矶给 Kanye 提过建议,Kanye 仍然这么做了。
- Robinhood Chain 的讨论最终落到一个“市场交易帖子、而非产品”的理论上:Banks 认同 Ash Robin 视频中的判断——“市场根本不在乎背后是谁……他们在乎的是帖子”;BNB 由 CZ 的推文驱动,Asteroid 只有在 Elon 发帖时才上涨,而 ANOM 的传播也依赖大量账号持续发帖。 Ansem 仍然总体看多 Robinhood Chain,但强调“真正驱动很多资金流的是 CT 原生资本……不是那1亿名散户”,两位主持人也都认为,当前 Robinhood 相比 Coinbase 占优;在 CT 看来,Coinbase“太企业化”,离加密文化太远。
- Ansem 的战术判断是:Saylor 卖出 BTC 的风险已经被定价——公司在 $60K 附近卖出了约 $200–225M 的 BTC,市场反而上涨,因此“我们其实在事情发生前就已经把最坏情况定价进去了”;$66K 是关键收复位。 他对 Solana 周期的判断是,下一批突破型应用将来自 meme 之外的永续合约(BULK.trade、Phoenix)、AI 和消费领域;其中,开源 AI 初创公司是被低估的设计空间。Lighter 当前 FDV 约为 Hyperliquid 的 1/40,“是一笔不错的交易”,其被讨论不足的 Robinhood 合作,以及创始人 Vlad 的 Citadel 背景,都是加分项。
- 节目主持了其所称的首次与 OpenAI 新全双工语音模型“GPT Live”的直播对谈;模型自称“Soul”,最尖锐的判断是:“第一代 AI 回答问题,下一代 AI 将拥有资产、做出决策并执行交易”,AI agent 甚至可能成为区块链最大的用户;最出彩的一句则是:“互联网的下一场战役不会是注意力,而是行动权。” 它将头部实验室的优势排序为“先算力,再研究人才,最后分发”,并反驳 Banks 关于 Apple 默认取胜的判断:“分发让你获得前10亿次对话,质量决定你能否获得后10亿次对话。”
- 同样地,Ansem 解释了为什么 Anthropic 尽管拥有 Claude 这个品牌,却正在“失去光环”:过去几年“他们买的算力远远不够”,被迫限制用量,并争抢 Google 的闲置算力;相比之下,GPT 的 API 和 Codex 更能处理重负载。 AI 心理依赖的另一面是:可以用 AI 做研究、写代码、研究市场,但把人际判断外包给 AI,“是你不该跨过的那条线”。
- Sal 给出的 McGregor–Holloway UFC 交易策略是:35¢ 买入 McGregor,首回合内退出——McGregor 唯一的赢法在开局,Holloway 几乎不会终结对手,因此只要 McGregor 熬过首回合且状态好,价格就应重估至 40–50¢;同时用被低估的 15¢ Holloway 胜决胜局对冲。 链上高手数据偏向 Holloway(两个终身盈利超过 $1M 的钱包),但终身盈利约 $600K 的“I Predicts”在 McGregor 身上押了 $259K。副线交易包括:24¢ 的 Cody Garbrandt 是“非常好的入场点”,Pimblett 的价格更接近五五开才合理。
1. Ansem 的抄底判断与 $162M 钱包
- 这场节目的所有后续内容,都建立在 Ansem 的两个底部判断之上:他认为 Bitcoin 的底部“在 58.8K 附近”,Solana 的底部在 $69;两者此后都上涨。几乎就在同一时间,他“碰巧”接手了别人发给他的 ANOM pump.fun 代币。他指出,Solana“几乎所有指标都在创历史新高……唯独价格没有”。
- 画面中的钱包价值 $162M;Banks 说,节目播出时这个代币/项目市值约 $300M,历史高点约 $400M——“而 Solana 现在是 $80”,相比上一周期接近 $297 的高点,在 Ansem 的框架里,这意味着它“甚至还没开始动”。
- 他对市场的判断是风险偏好正在回归——“没人预期第一周或第二周就会有代币突破1亿美元市值”。如果链上成交量继续当前趋势,未来几周到几个月,“链上会非常火热”。
2. 超过 MrBeast:两周送出 $21M,年底目标 $200M
- 被问及两周内送出了多少钱,Ansem 的回答是“差不多2000万”;Banks 补充背景:MrBeast 的整个品牌都建立在慈善之上,整个职业生涯累计送出约 $200M,因此 Ansem 两周就已经达到这个数字的 10%。
- 目标明确且附带条件:如果“年底前”能超过 MrBeast——“如果我对 Solana 的判断正确,对市场的判断正确,对正在发生的链上趋势判断正确,我认为我们到年底能送出超过 $200M”。
- 他的加速器逻辑是:他持有一个“与我、与 memes、与 Solana 牛市相连”的代币。上一周期 Bonk 和 WIF 都曾涨到约 $5B,但他没有供应量控制权;这一次不同。“在牛市早期,核心协议向用户空投现金非常重要……但这个周期还没看到这种情况发生,所以我准备自己来做。”
- 分配不会一次性完成,而是“分阶段进行,把代币持有者导向某些协议”——既是刺激计划,也是流量路由权。另有 $1M 子额度分配给直播聊天室,节目中直接向被选中的贡献者发放 $1,000 空投。
3. 注意力如何被定价:Doge、MrBeast、Speed 与 9200万次曝光
- Ansem 的框架是,资产同时包含有形价值和无形价值,而“注意力的无形价值很难捕捉……代币化是捕捉这部分价值的方式之一”。最典型的案例是 2020–21 年的 Dogecoin:500万名持有者、超过 $80B 的市值,散户是在“押注这个 meme 的病毒式传播能力”。
- 他对创作者经济的分类是:MrBeast = 娱乐+慈善;Speed = 娱乐+社区——Speed 不撒钱,但拥有一群会跟着他走的死忠粉丝。Ansem 则把自己定位为“Doge 和创作者经济的某种结合”:一个经营了9年多的 CT 受众群体,在 X 的所有人当中,“可能是最活跃、也最愿意花钱的群体”。
- 这个代币解决了他的变现不对称:赞助商愿意因为他的粉丝付钱,但“我没有办法直接激励这些人”;有了 ANOM,他可以围绕代币组织用户,并把价值返还给他们。
- Banks 拉出的原始数据是:7天内 9200万次曝光,粉丝数一周内从100万增至110万,37.5万条回复、接近100万次点赞和9.4万次转发;实习生按年化口径算出“48亿次曝光”。Banks 的结论是:“凭什么不做?我们正在向上走。”
4. 名人币已死:Tate 节目取消与“我错得最离谱的一次”
- 原定的 Andrew Tate 节目因“一项利益冲突”在最后一刻取消。Banks 曾明确要求 Tate“不要发币”,原本只想讨论注意力,不想谈加密货币。
- Ansem 的复盘异常绝对:他上一周期的判断是,外部名人可以利用自己的分发能力为加密行业带来正面作用;现在他认为,这“可能是我在加密领域所有判断里错得最离谱的一次。他们全都在诈骗,一个不落”。
- 他把机制讲得很清楚:这些名人“根本没有什么[__]钱”,也“根本不在乎加密用户”,于是和匿名开发者合作,由后者打包筹码,名人先收钱、发几条推文,打包者则“倒在所有人的头上。之后他们不再发推文,那就是顶部”。
- 结论是:“这个周期,我不会给那些[]搭台……我不会犯同样的错误两次。如果他们想参与,可以买 ANOM 或买 Solana。” Banks 补充:“买 Bitcoin,然后闭上[]嘴。”
5. Kanye、Hawk Tuah 与名人身边的坏人层
- Kanye 的故事是这样的:Solana meme 币狂热顶峰时,他把 Ansem 请到洛杉矶;Ansem 给出了“你能得到的最好的建议”,Kanye 发推提到他的名字——“然后他发了一个[__]币,哥们。”Ansem 承认,Kanye 听进去了一部分,但“在项目真正执行的时候,我离得不够近,没法准确告诉他们该怎么做”。
- 两人的共同判断是,推动这类行为的往往不是名人本人,而是“经纪人类型的人、身边的人、内圈的人”。Banks 回忆 Hawk Tuah 事件时说,播客和代币周围的人试图围绕节目上线交易;Ansem 也说,他不确定她的团队是否可靠。Banks 的结构性观点是,外部人“过于短视”,如果“不在加密行业的泥地里”,就无法长期持有注意力。
6. 为什么这次不同:信任加上 58% 的供应量
- 面对 Banks 的反方质疑——“在普通人看来,这两者完全一样”——Ansem 的回答是:“很多人信任我……我现在持有 58% 的供应量。人们不担心我会卖出。”他已经持续输出9年,而且“每次我搞[]砸了,人们都知道我搞[]砸了。我会承认自己的错误”。
- 他认为护城河在于:“很多人只是把这[]当副业做。我是全身心投入这[]的。没人会像我这样全身心投入加密行业,不可能。”Banks 补充说,长达4小时的直播长视频是“最后一块无限宝石”——每周持续4小时,很难伪装真实意图;Ansem 也会穿越回撤,“如果 Bitcoin 明天跌到 $10K,你还会在这里”。
7. Robinhood Chain:总体利好,但 CT 资本先动
- Ansem“总体看多 Robinhood Chain”:Vlad 和这么大体量的产品公开活跃在链上,本身就是净利好;Robinhood 的散户分发能力也可能成功,或许能比 Coinbase 更有效地“把这些人带上链”。但他也提醒,Robinhood“有时确实会对客户[__]”,比如在低点下架 Solana、暂停 GME 买入。
- 流量机制比品牌更重要:“首先驱动市场的不会是 Robinhood 的1亿名零售客户,而是 CT……我们才是链上资本最多的人。”新链逻辑一直成立,是因为交易者“在寻找资本还没那么多、自己可以早期进入的机会”。
- 两人都认为,纵向整合会成为未来主线:Coinbase 加入股票,Robinhood 加入加密,Polymarket 加入永续合约——“只要你拥有分发能力,就会尽可能把更多环节掌握在自己手里……这会成为未来零售金融的一大主线。”
8. Ash Robin 的判断:市场交易帖子,而不是产品
- Banks 播放 Ash Robin 的视频,并认同其判断“太真实、太准确”:“市场现在根本不在乎背后是谁。他们在乎什么?他们在乎帖子。”BNB season 靠 CZ 阵营的推文启动;Asteroid 因 Elon 的一条帖子涨到 $200M,Elon 不发帖就持续失血;ANOM 上涨则是因为创始人不断发帖。
- Luca 随后把这个框架转化为分发策略:“注意力就是货币,哥们……如果我有一支10万人的军队,全部在发关于这个币的内容,那比我一个人能做的营销多得多。这是指数级的,是乘法效应。”这些空投会专门奖励在 X 上持续创作内容的持有者。
9. Robinhood 与 Coinbase:5年后谁更大
- 对于 CT 为什么砸 Coinbase、却追捧 Vlad,解释是:“他们没有像应该的那样贴近文化……人们觉得他们太企业化。如果你不支持人们真正想在链上做的事情,人们就不会和你[__]。”Vlad 表示看好 memes、而不只是 RWA,正是时间线上当时交易的叙事。
- Banks 以“我这个蠢货散户视角”的口吻给出判断:Robinhood“明显遥遥领先”;Luca 说经常同时使用两款 App 的 Sal 更喜欢 Robinhood 的产品,Banks 补充,“首先要投资好的产品”。Ansem 认为 Robinhood“略占优势”,但两人也都提到它的黑历史:$16 时下架 Solana,之后 Solana 涨到 $297;顶部时切断 GME 买入——“这种情况下唯一受伤的是散户……讽刺的是,这个 App 叫 Robin Hood。”
10. Saylor 卖出已被定价;$66K 是关键位置
- Ansem 两期前的判断已经兑现:市场提前交易了对 Saylor 的恐惧——“人们以为他要卖出 $40B 的 Bitcoin,那不可能发生。”按他的叙述,公司曾获授权在需要补充现金储备时出售最多 $1.25B;优先股支付有约25个月的 runway,之后实际卖出在节目中先被描述为 $225M、后被描述为约 $200M,价格在 $60K 附近——“他们在底部卖 Bitcoin,但我们反而涨了”,最终涨到约 $63K。
- 不对称性很明显:Saylor 最初宣布小规模卖出时,BTC 从 $80K 一路跌到 $60K;公司真正以约 $60K 卖出 $200M+ 后,市场反而上涨。“我们其实在事情发生前就已经把最坏情况定价进去了。”关键收复位是:“如果 Bitcoin 回到 $66K 以上,我认为这是一个非常关键的位置”,Saylor 的抛压影响会“越来越小”。
- 相关交易是记忆芯片股:Micron、SanDisk 全年都大幅上涨,目前正在盘整。如果 Bitcoin、Solana、Hyperliquid 和 Lighter 相比半导体继续展现相对强势,“我们可能很快看到大量动量资金涌入”。
11. Lighter:市场讨论不足的交易
- 被直接问到 Lighter 是否是一笔好交易时,Ansem 没有保留:“是的,我确实认为 Lighter 是一笔好交易……尤其是因为它规模很小”——当前 FDV 约为 Hyperliquid 的“1/40”,当然没那么成功、也没那么赚钱,但它与 Robinhood 的合作“目前在时间线上被严重低估”。
- Robinhood 选择 Lighter 的原因在于,Lighter 创始人 Vlad 与 Robinhood 管理层有真实联系,并拥有传统金融背景——进入加密行业之前,“他曾在 Citadel 工作”。Banks 把永续 DEX 之争形容为“某种 Marvel 对 Capcom 的[__]……Hyperliquid 对 Lighter”。
12. Solana 周期主线:永续、AI 与消费应用突破
- 上一周期,Solana 的链上活跃主要来自 memes 和交易终端,但在永续合约上严重落后;现在它正依靠“BULK.trade、Phoenix Trade 这样的产品”追赶,同时底层原生基础设施也让这些产品更容易构建。本周期的主线是:突破型应用不只来自 memes 和消费,也来自永续金融、AI,以及 Collector Crypt 这类其他消费应用。
- AI 是其中一条腿:Solana 是成本最低、性能最好的 L1,同时还能从外部吸引优秀开发者;而“开源 AI 社区只会继续更快增长”。万亿美元级别的私人实验室占据主导,但“开源 AI 以及围绕它构建产品和协议的设计空间,将是小型初创公司表现出色的地方”。他引用近期嘉宾、似乎是 Mert 的说法:Solana 想成为“创业者的家”。结论是,Solana 上的技术型项目和基础设施型项目仍然被低估。
13. AI 心理依赖:治疗类比
- Ansem 对 AI 使用何时开始产生反作用划线:研究、写代码、研究股票和工作,都可以;但“在人际关系中,不要让 AI 决定你该如何回应”。所谓心理依赖,是指那些“每次遇到情绪问题,就问 AI 我该怎么回应……然后说,‘AI 告诉我这样,所以这一定是对的’”的人。他的类比是,有些人接受太多治疗,最终把判断力外包给治疗师说过的话。
- Banks 把它概括为“用进废退”:不再举重,肌肉会退化;每天吃止痛药,身体会停止自行产生相关物质;色情内容和亲密关系也类似。“如果你聪明,什么都能处理……但普通人可能会掉进一个循环,世界上唯一的朋友变成 AI。这就是《黑镜》,兄弟。”
14. Anthropic 为何失去光环:算力买少了
- Banks 询问“为什么感觉 Anthropic 正在失去光环”,Ansem 通过自己关注的一位 Twitter 分析师 Roy 给出技术解释:“过去几年他们买的算力远远不够。你能看到他们正在实时解决这个问题”,包括用投资换取 Google 的闲置算力。结果是使用限制,以及产品在“重负载工作流上变差”,相比之下 GPT 的 API 和 Codex 更适合高强度使用。
- 更尖锐的指控也被明确注明来源:Anthropic“非常非常擅长营销自己的产品,但底层实际上不如 ChatGPT 和其他一些产品”。Banks 开心的是,这与自己的直觉形成了验证闭环:“我喜欢这种情况——明明有一堆技术原因解释某件事为什么成立,而我只是凭感觉先看出来了。”
15. Luca Netz:年轻就是风险资本
- Luca 的经历高度浓缩了他的判断:他15岁离开学校,现在28岁——“人们看到我这个年纪取得的成就时……我已经做了13年这件事。”另一方面,Banks 回忆自己早期做的生意:帮助有影响力的人变现——“你有几百万粉丝,就应该有几百万美元。”
- Luca 想对年轻观众说的是,风险承受能力会随着年龄下降:女友、孩子、生病的家人都会增加约束。因此“现在就是你真正可以冒险、输掉一切、然后重新来过的时候……我都数不清自己多少次输光了一切”。Banks 也重复节目里的固定观点:“人类历史上,从来没有比现在更适合一个拥有互联网连接、但身无分文的年轻人。”可以整天使用 Claude 和 GPT Live,打造产品,学习如何获得注意力。
- 两人都提到 Zaptio 早期向他们推 CryptoKicks 时险些错过:当时看上去“像一个赔钱项目”,但 Zaptio 后来把 Artifact 以9位数的价格卖给了 Nike。
16. $1.5B 的 PENGU 空投:为什么持续派发胜过一次性投放
- Luca 的成绩单是:PENGU 空投了 50% 的供应量,“在 Liberation Day 前基本维持了 $3B 市值。因此这是一次约 $1.5B 的空投”。期间每天有数十亿美元的真实成交量,足以反驳那些质疑“你根本不懂流动性”的人。
- 他的让步是本段的核心:“这让我有点难受,因为我们相当于送出了 $1.6B 的免费钱……但回头看,这才是更好的策略。”一次性空投的问题是:“他们进来,然后离开你……像一块用过的抹布。”Banks 插话:“是自慰巾吗?在这个节目上你想说什么[__]都行。”持续、常青式的空投则能让市场消化分配,“可以变成一列货运列车,复利运行更长时间”。
- Luca 还披露了一项与未来有关的信息:他手里仍有一笔尚未分配的扩散基金——“我会观察你的成功,把它作为数据点,决定未来如何分配更多代币”——并称自己正在创始人群聊里推广这种模式。
17. 飞轮:互惠空投、创作者费用与剪辑赚币
- Luca 给 Ansem 的核心建议是:把持有者导向某个协议,奖励他们使用该协议,并明确要求协议在 TGE 时反向空投给社区——“这样就形成了互惠飞轮”。他对自己的遗憾是,PENGU 冲刺期间只做成了一个类似交易,“感觉本来可以做10个”。
- Ansem 已经在运行另一套循环:pump.fun 的创作者费用。因为发射者可以把费用路由到任何钱包,追逐他注意力的代币会把费用导向他——“过去两周光靠创作者费用,我就赚了 $1.37M”。他说,这些费用可以再返还给 ANOM 持有者。对协议来说,与其只向他做营销,不如“向这些 Ansem 持有者做营销”;这是一个活跃社区,其注意力杠杆“远远不止我个人发一条推文”。
- Banks 提出的方案被 Luca 称为天才:用代币奖励池替代剪辑预算,剪辑者赚得越多,代币上涨越多,而代币又会因为剪辑增加而上涨。Banks 想要建立排名系统、自动剪辑引擎和观看时长统计,并认为“我们有机会彻底改变流媒体的运行方式”。
18. 这能修复名人币元叙事,甚至重构粉丝关系
- Luca 提出一个反事实:如果名人币一开始只有 $5M 市值,名人持有 95%,再持续向粉丝派发,“那个元叙事制造的灾难,本来完全可以通过稍微正确地重构机制来避免”。做对之后,“这可以成为一层全新的激励机制,覆盖粉丝关系、人与人的关系”。
- Banks 一句话里同时表达了挫败和验证:“我已经尝试解释这件事为什么可行很久了,但每个尝试这么做的人都在诈骗。”缺少的是一个同时理解代币设计、注意力和加密行业的人。Luca 则重新定义项目:“品牌就是你……这是一个关于如何成为金融界 Kanye West 的讨论。”他在临别时表示,Ansem 的分配模式中有些部分自己可能会跟进。
- 两人都反驳 CT 里偏左脑的怀疑。Banks 说:“如果有什么,那就是我们讨论的东西根本不可能被定价……如果我们甚至只完成愿景的 10%,情况也会完全不同。”
19. Pump.fun 假设题:把价格打低、大规模空投、控制流通盘
- Banks 反复提出“枪顶着你的头、把 Pump.fun 的钥匙交给你”的问题。Ansem 的标准答案是:“把代币打到尽可能低的位置,尽可能多地空投,这样回购才真正有意义……他可以控制整个流通盘,然后 Pump 会垂直上涨,因为它是整个加密行业最具病毒性的应用之一。它是人民的平台,把它交给人民。”Luca 也认同这套策略有道理。
- Ansem 认为,数字已经自行 converging:收入一路向上、代币一路向下,因此“如果按回购金额相对于流通盘的比例来看……很快就会接近这样一个状态:他们已经持有这个东西的大部分”。Banks 指出有趣之处在于,每个人给出的答案都一样,“但他们实际做的事情恰恰完全相反”。
20. 回购与营销,以及无形价值框架
- Luca 挑战回购至上的传统观点:加密资产“本质上是情绪产品”。即使代币有大量回购、P/E 式估值指标看起来很便宜,价格也未必上涨,因为价格“是注意力和眼球的代理变量”。他会问自己的社区:“你们更希望我拿 $10M 回购代币,还是拿 $10M 做营销?”只有在无事可做时才应该回购——Hyperliquid 除外,因为它的回购是程序化的,而且社区主动拥护。
- Ansem 的支持框架是:每项资产都有有形价值,即未来现金流的一部分;同时也有模型没有计入的无形价值。以 SpaceX 为例,尽管净利润为负,它的估值仍达到数万亿美元,“因为人们非常相信 Elon 的运营能力……你永远不会在《聪明的投资者》里看到‘这个资产的注意力价值是多少’”。同样的逻辑解释了 Doge 的 $80B 市值,以及 SanDisk 超越基本面的动量溢价。
- 他的交易员推论是:“注意力和动量通常会领先于容易做的交易。”2023 年 Solana 的链上活跃度几乎为零,因此当时要下注的是基础设施以及各种可能性。“能够看到拐角之外的东西,这些才是最好的交易员。”
- Luca 2020 年对股票的研究也提供了支持:有公开发声创始人的公司,相比没有这类创始人的公司,通常拥有明显的市值溢价,“差别是天壤之别”。因为上市公司的创始人,其真正工作就是创造注意力和信任;未来几十年,随着其他东西越来越商品化,这一点只会更加重要。
21. Solana 首席营销官:保留钥匙,再办一场篮球赛
- 被问到如果担任 Solana 的 CMO,是否会改变营销策略,Luca 起初说不会做太多不同的事情,并称赞现有团队。Sal 追问后,他说自己会保留钥匙,而不是把它们交还回去。Ansem 认可这一点,并称赞永续应用的 stunt、World.xyz 和 WSOP 合作,认为这些营销已经走出纯加密渠道。他最喜欢的是 2022 年“只有 Solana 能做到”的时期,因为那句话当时“字面意义上是真的”。他的唯一要求是:如果 App Store 逻辑要成立,Solana 必须把应用层提升到核心交易之外,包括 AI、agent、消费应用和 Collector Crypt 一类项目。
- Sal 最终提出具体方案:“我会拿 $250,000 的 Solana……办一场篮球赛。冠军队拿 $250,000,到处都是 Solana 的标志。”同时在 Polymarket 上为比赛开盘。节目还透露,Banks 和 Ansem 可能在8月第一周于 Bellagio 参加一场 Solana 扑克活动,并有可能进行直播。
22. NFT 逻辑:拿下 $500B 收藏品市场的 1%
- Luca 当初为何用 750 ETH(当时约 $2.5M)买下 Pudgy Penguins?因为他之前经营玩具公司 Gel Blaster,已经理解品牌和 IP;在他看来,“Pudgy Penguins 很明显可以和我过去认识、喜欢的所有 IP 一样大,甚至更大”。他称 Gel Blaster 当时是北美最大的、或增长最快的玩具公司之一,并认为 Pudgy 能把家庭和女性用户带入 Web3。
- 估值逻辑很直接:全球收藏品市场约 $500B,NFT 目前约占 1%。数字收藏品“没有真伪问题、没有仿冒问题,买卖也没有摩擦”;在一个日益数字化的世界里,“数字收藏品是否值得拿下 1% 的市场?答案毫无疑问是肯定的”。他不判断最终比例是 90/10 还是 50/50,但认为“这里存在价差,也存在可捕获的空间……规模达到数百亿美元”。他看到的是 2020 年体育卡和 Pokémon 泡沫模式的重演:“只是何时发生的问题,而不是会不会发生”——显然他的意思是一定会发生。
- 直播聊天室的即时校验是:单 Rolex 的市场规模约 $50B,而 NFT 约 $2B。Banks 用 CS:GO 库存作需求侧类比:“你为什么需要80把崭新的 Dragon Lore?”数字身份每天能被看到数千次,而他的 Patek 可能只有约20个人看到。
- Banks 也交代了自己的持仓:4到5个 CryptoPunks,其中包括一个 zombie;在高峰期以 $500K 卖出一个 Punk 后,剩下的是一笔实际上免费滚动的7位数仓位。即便“随时都有 $45M 摆在桌面上”,他也从未推出自己的 NFT 项目。
23. 女性投机需求的空白
- Ansem 提出了一个开放问题:加密和交易用户高度男性化,但女性在消费品和设计师商品上的支出高于男性——“一直没有真正的产品或协议,能够利用她们进行投机性消费的意愿”。Luca 知道有人正在为女性八卦话题搭建预测市场;Banks 直接想到:“做一个 Love Island 市场——这太天才了。”Luca 随即给出产品设想:“粉色 Y2K,加上亮片……做成移动 App……这实际上可以做成一个数十亿美元的好产品。”
- Luca 说 Pudgy 是加密行业最面向女性的两三个社区之一,而不是明确宣称最大。一位买家告诉他,自己买了10只 Penguins,因为“你把社区里的女孩都吸引来了,哥们”——“女人在哪里,男人就会跟到哪里”。他还提到 Berachain 的“Bera Baddies”是类似方向的项目。
24. GPT Live 首秀:全双工、记忆股判断与护栏墙
- 节目主持了其所称的首次与 OpenAI 新发布的 GPT Live 进行直播对谈。该模型由“GPT Live 1”驱动,是一个全双工语音模型——“可以同时听和说”——并自称“Soul”。Banks 提到,发布广告展示的是老年人使用它;据 Banks 转述,Frank DeGods 上一次对 AI 产生这种感觉还是 Opus 4.5,如今他“极度看多低延迟算力”。
- Ansem 的第一个测试对象是记忆股交易中的 Penguin Solutions(PENG)。Soul 的回答具有实质价值:PENG 并不是像 Micron 那样的纯记忆芯片公司,而是 AI 基础设施加记忆系统公司;公司刚刚上调全年指引,受益于 AI 顺风和 CXL。CXL“能让通常相互分离的记忆池更高效地共享”,对 AI 推理意义重大,即使公司不生产最顶级芯片,也能从系统构建中受益。
- Banks 随后直接追问“我们要不要买”,撞上了护栏:“我不提供个性化金融建议。”此前 Soul 只给出带限定条件的回答——关键在于未来增长是否超过当前价格已经反映的预期,“也许应该控制仓位,而不是全仓买入”。Banks 立刻说:“Venice AI,我们需要这样的产品——Erik Voorhees,今天就做一个。”他认为 Venice AI 没有审查、重视隐私;Soul 对此外交辞令式回应——竞争能推动所有人进步——被 Banks 评价为“安全、简单、开放式的公关回答”。
25. Soul 谈创作者经济:从受众所有权到注意力资本
- GPT Live 最清晰的判断是,创作者经济正在“从基于受众转向基于所有权——被动粉丝减少,参与、建设、甚至共同拥有的人增加”。AI 让内容变得便宜,“因此稀缺的东西变成信任……未来5年最大的创作者未必拥有最大的受众,但会拥有最强的生态系统”。Banks 立刻把它映射到直播:多出9万名直播观众,与多出9万次视频播放完全不同,因为前者是一群密度高、会继续分发的核心用户。Soul 的总结是:“深度胜过广度。一个密集的核心用户群,可以拉动比庞大被动受众更多的东西。”
- 对 MrBeast 的判断是:内容带动业务,业务再带动更大的内容;真正的启示“不是复制 MrBeast,而是像运营者一样思考。把注意力当作资本,而不是终点……下一代媒体公司基本上会由个人,而不是企业建立”。面对约 $1T 的全球广告市场,创作者不会取代品牌,“他们会成为新的分发者”,最终创作者本身也会成为品牌——“赢家不是那个靠注意力赚钱的人,而是拥有注意力所驱动业务的人”。
- Banks 要求 GPT Live“表现得像世界上最好的内容创作者”,并帮忙做剪辑农场,模型配合得有些过头:“让每个回答都成为标题党。”面对“金钱、注意力和 AI 素养”的主张,它最初只回答:“什么都没有。太棒了。我同意。”之后它给出了一段认真批评,字幕把发言人标为 Sal:“金钱和注意力是结果,不是输入……更深层的东西是能力、耐心和可信度。它们创造的是能够留存的金钱和注意力。”
26. 僵尸互联网、生成式信息流与行动权边界
- 字幕把对僵尸互联网理论的回应标为 Sal:“作为思想实验有用,但不能按字面理解……AI 不会杀死创作者,它会杀死平均水平的内容。”如果一个人的优势只是剪辑或基础信息,这些能力会被压缩;品味、视角和信任不会。“AI 不会替代真实性,只会提高真实性的价格。”面对机器人洪水,他用电子邮件作类比:“电子邮件没有因为垃圾邮件而消失,我们建立了过滤器和规范。”未来持久的问题不再是“这个回复是真的吗”,而是“这个人是真实的吗,我信任他吗”。
- Banks 设想了一个高度个性化的场景:为某一位 Lakers 球迷实时生成一段由拉丁裔主角出演、达到 Avatar 电影级别的10分钟视频,而且全世界只有他一个人观看。GPT Live 认为这是“合乎逻辑的下一步”。下一个算法不会推荐你喜欢的电影,而是直接生成它;但关键问题是,谁控制目标函数。优化互动率与对齐用户目标,“是同一个工具,却会产生完全不同的结果”。
- 节目最出彩的一句出现在这里:“互联网的下一场战役不会是注意力,而是行动权。你还能做出选择吗,还是系统已经替你做得太好了,以至于你都没有察觉?”Banks 说他的祖母不会注意到算法之后,Soul 给出更冷峻的补充:“如果你祖母使用的是那个版本,她没事。如果不是,她只是一个数据点。”
27. Soul 谈 AGI、AI×加密基础设施与谁赢得分发
- 对 AGI/ASI,GPT Live 拒绝预测时间或赢家,称这是一项“愚蠢的任务”,并指出严肃实验室都在美国生态中。但它给出了两个值得记住的判断:“震动不会来自 AGI 被宣布的那一天,而是来自人们意识到,在那之前我们已经悄悄把大部分思考交了出去”;以及“第一个构建 AGI 的人,可能不是最终受益最多的人”。
- AI×加密的建设地图在字幕中标为 Sal 的发言,虽然发生在 GPT Live 环节:基础模型正在商品化,因此价值会向上迁移,包括拥有钱包的 AI agent、链上声誉、自治企业,以及预测市场加 AI。“第一代 AI 回答问题,下一代 AI 将拥有资产、做出决策并执行交易……要假设 AI agent 会成为区块链最大的用户,而不是人类。”关于去中心化推理,训练是制造业,推理是物流业;只要解决验证和延迟问题,全球算力市场就可能像带宽一样被交易。身份层则可能以 ZK proof 为基础,“谁构建出那一层身份,谁拿到的奖品会比另一个内容 App 大得多”。
- 对 X 的超级 App 押注,GPT Live 的判断是:“Meta 拥有你的社交图谱,TikTok 拥有你的注意力,X 正试图拥有你的数字生活。”这是大胆的方向,但 xAI 的实时数据优势“是燃料,不是引擎”。被问到头部实验室的优势排序,它回答:“先算力,再研究人才,最后分发。”被低估的胜负手是产品分发——“最好的模型不一定赢,用户使用的模型才会赢。”
- Banks 认为只要把一个还不错的模型嵌入 iMessage,Apple 就会默认取胜;GPT Live 对此给出了全段最尖锐的反驳:“分发让你获得前10亿次对话,质量决定你能否获得后10亿次对话。即使默认安装,用户也会绕开平庸的产品……未来是堆栈对堆栈。”最后,Soul 从直播送礼数字中选了 427,Banks 则宣布这正是节目从第一集起就想要的 AI 联合主持人(“Bubbles”):类似 Rogan 节目的 Jamie,一个事实上存在于幕后、但不可或缺的联合主持人。
28. Sal 的 UFC 牌局:35¢ 买 McGregor,赚的是他活过首回合
- Sal 为 McGregor–Holloway 主赛设计的核心结构是:“现在以35%买入 McGregor……首回合结束就退出交易。”McGregor 五年未打比赛,且经历过腿部骨折;他的唯一胜法在第1、2回合。Holloway 通常不会击倒对手,Gaethje 在 UFC 300 的 KO 属于最后一秒的异常事件,而且他“地面技术为零”,所以“Conor 基本不可能在首回合输掉”。只要 McGregor 看起来状态不错,价格就应重估到“40多美分,甚至50美分”。Banks 此前在 Gaethje–Topuria 中也采取过同样的直播交易策略,从20¢附近一路交易到接近五五开。
- Sal 通过 Bullpen CLI 追踪的链上高手数据却指向另一边,这也是他不愿持有到到期的原因:几乎所有盈利的 Polymarket 高手都站在 Holloway 一侧,其中两个终身盈利超过 $1M,另一个超过 $500K;McGregor 一侧只有一个高手“I Predicts”,终身盈利约 $600K,并在 Conor 身上押了 $259K。散户也在押 McGregor,DraftKings 约 90% 的成交量都在他这边,因此这并不是一笔逆向交易。
- 被低估的对位优势包括:McGregor 打过14场 UFC,Holloway 打过33场,“他的里程明显更高,而且被击倒的次数也多得多”;McGregor 的终结率约为 Holloway 的两倍,平时体重约185磅,而 Holloway 估计在170–175磅,并且对阵正架拳手时表现更好。Ansem 喜欢的对冲是 15¢ 的 Holloway 胜决胜局:“很遗憾,这几乎就是必然会发生的结果。”Sal 认为它“被严重低估”,两边组合起来就是:McGregor 熬得越久,他的胜率越高。
- 副卡交易包括:24¢ 的 Cody Garbrandt 对 Adrian Yanez——玻璃下巴已经计入价格,但“入场点非常好”,首回合后很可能快速重估;共同主赛 Pimblett 的价格应该更接近五五开,可能会打成一场难看的缠抱判定。Sal 对 UFC 适合 Polymarket 的总结是:每次击倒都会让赔率剧烈波动,而判定往往以极细的边际决定,“这会奖励真正懂球的人”。Ansem 补充了行为层面的解释:娱乐性更强的结果并不是发生得更频繁,但一旦发生,所有人下次都会加倍押注——“这和交易市场完全一样”。
完整逐字稿
Welcome back to Market Bubble, a show about investing in yourself, where we feel an overwhelming majority of young men today are in a losing position. How are we positioned? Find out today and every Thursday, 1:00 p.m. PST live on twitch.tv/fazebanks. I am also live on Twitter. And I am joined today with my beautiful doll, tall, dark, handsome co-host, Ansem.
Yo yo yo, what's good, brother? How we doing?
And where are you live, brother?
New York City. Live on Kick, kick.com/ansem. And Twitter, of course.
Before we do anything else, we're not putting this off anymore. We have a winner. We picked a winner for the chat aggregator, guys. If you don't already know, I think we dropped that in Episode 3.
Yeah, it was a few episodes ago.
It's been almost 2 months. We got an overwhelming number of submissions, but the chat aggregator should be up here. Look at that. How beautiful is that? This is pulling from my Twitch chat, from my Twitter, and from Ansem's Twitter.
Now we can kind of live-interact. We're seeing this, too. Even when it's not in the middle, we're seeing this live. There's a whole dashboard for it. I really want to show it off properly.
All the addresses are so crazy.
1. The Untapped Market: Women in Crypto
Yo, somebody on Telegram. Yeah, it's insane. Somebody on Telegram. Guys, listen: no addresses. We're going to be live-airdropping people throughout the chat all day, but we're not going to be picking random Solana addresses. We will hit you up on the side. We're looking for people who are contributing in a productive or positive way. We're looking for familiar faces.
So, Z, if you see somebody who's always in your X chat and has been in there since Episode 1—AceUp444—I just gave him a thousand. He's been here since minute 1, Episode 1. He's the first person in the chat every day. There's nobody who I know who deserves it more.
Somebody just gifted me subs. Who? And how many? Oh, fuck it. Fuck him, right? We'll get him next time.
But, yeah, without further ado, this chat aggregator is beautiful. We can see it in real time, and we really, really appreciate you. Drumroll, please. The winner is—I guess I'll just show my laptop—Zack.
Zack.
Zack Eith. Congratulations. You have won $10,000—
—for an app that we could have gotten for free because—
We love you, though. We love you, though. It's great.
Yes. This apparently has been made a thousand times.
Yeah, and we had—I don't know. Fuck it. Who cares? This is the kind of energy we're trying to attract, though. In case you guys haven't picked up what we're putting down, we want this type of energy. We want builders to come here, founders to come here, and people who want to grow with the show and help us grow the show. That's the kind of culture we're trying to build over here at Market Bubble, and it's going great, man. It's going great.
Brother, these last 2 weeks, Z—
Bro, it's possibly the craziest 2 weeks I think I've ever had in crypto, and I've been in crypto since 2017. It's got to rank up there.
Out of control, bro.
Has to, bro. Has to.
Out of control.
But, yeah, bro, my account's been going nuts. As you guys have seen, I called the bottom on Bitcoin around $58.8K or whatever it was. I called the bottom on Solana around $69. Both are up from those lows.
Coincidentally, right around the same time, somebody sent me this fucking Ansem Pump.fun token, and I CTO'd that right around the same time that I called the bottom on the market. I think we've seen a lot more people go risk-on. Nobody was expecting any coins to go over $100 million in the first week or second week, and we've seen a lot more on-chain volume and a lot more on-chain activity.
Solana specifically is hitting literally record highs across the board on all metrics except for price. So, we are looking forward, I think, to the next few weeks and months, especially if this trend continues. I think on-chain is going to be really hot.
2. Will Solana Win the AI Race?
This wallet is currently sitting with, as you guys can see—pardon me, I almost just threw up—$162 million. It's insane. As my pre-show title and my tweet suggest, giving chat a million dollars, guys, this isn't just clickbait. Do you want to elaborate on your vision? I know that, to this day, in the last 2 weeks, you have given away how much money?
Around $20 million.
And he just says it that casually, like he's giving away, I don't know, $20 million, guys. To put that into perspective for you guys, MrBeast, who is the philanthropist—the biggest YouTuber in the world, the biggest creator in the world—is known for giving away money. That's his whole shtick. That's his whole spiel. He gives away, on average, I feel like a minimum of $100K every YouTube video he does.
He has given away around $200 million over the course of his career, and you're already 10% into that in 2 weeks. I know it's a goal of yours, of this community, and of this effort to eventually flip MrBeast.
Yes, sir.
What timeframe are we working with? Ideally, in a perfect world, in a dream scenario, when do we flip MrBeast?
By the end of the year. Honestly, by the end of the year, I think if I'm right on Solana, right on the markets, and right on the on-chain trends occurring, we can give away more than $200 million by the end of the year.
I say that because I have a supercharged asset that MrBeast doesn't have. I have a token that's connected to me, connected to memes, and connected to the bull market on Solana. Last cycle, if you saw what happened with memes, Bonk went to fucking $5 billion. WIF went to fucking $5 billion.
But I wasn't on the team, didn't have good supply control, and didn't have good control of the narrative or the things that you can do around marketing and entertainment with the coin. In this situation, I do.
I think it's really important at the beginning of these bull markets in crypto that the core protocols airdrop cash to people, especially to their core users. We haven't seen that happen yet this cycle, so I'm kind of taking it into my own hands and plan to do that.
If Solana continues to do well, we're going to continue to give away tokens to people. I plan on doing it in a way that makes the most sense, so I'm not going to do it all at once. I'm going to do it staggered, in ways that I can direct token holders to certain protocols and certain marketing events.
I really want to create a community of people who are aligned for this bull market while also giving stimulus packages back to the crypto community.
Epic. Epic. I think when we closed out the last show, it was at around $160 million. It's at around $300 million right now. I know the all-time high is around $400 million. Again, for where we're at currently in Solana and crypto, it's just insane what you've managed to do.
Solana hasn't even started moving yet. Solana is selling at $80. My all-time high is like $297 million, $63K, or whatever it is.
I have your metrics from Twitter in the last week.
This is fucking foul, bro.
It's crazy. Or is this the month? No, this is 7 days right here. 7 days.
Bro, it's the week.
92 million impressions.
You teleported from 1 million followers. We just celebrated 1 million last week, and now you're at 1.1 million.
Yes, sir. 375,000 replies. That is fucking—
Bro, I know. People get mad at me for not replying. I can't even go through all of them, dude. It's nuts.
Almost 1 million likes and 94,000 reposts. This is absolutely insane. Our intern annualized 4.8 billion impressions.
That's so funny.
Nick goes, "We're doing ARR metrics on impressions now."
Why the fuck not, bro? Fuck it, bro.
We're trending up.
100%.
We're trending up. Attention is everything. It's so ultra-important to this effort.
You generated 100 million impressions last week. Your coin, Pump.fun, and holder count are all going up. Our timelines are cooked with BlackBull only. We need updates on all fronts. What do you want to tell the people? I know you probably have a million questions. There's a lot that people have been asking over the week. There's a lot to share and a lot to talk about.
I think, generally, assets in today's age are valued on 2 different things: tangible value and intangible value. The intangible value of attention is really hard to capture in a certain way, and tokenization is one of the ways to capture that value.
We saw with Dogecoin in 2020 and 2021 that Elon was super big on it, but it went extremely viral. Dogecoin had over 5 million holders. It went to over $80 billion in market cap. As you guys know, Doge is just a very popular meme on the internet, but retail was speculating on the virality of this meme.
And it did really well because so many people were speculating on this value. I think you're going to continue to see people speculate on these trends in markets and continue to do that. But I think another way that people have effectively ascribed value to attention is through the creator economy.
The creator economy has grown huge over the past few years. You guys obviously know MrBeast, IShowSpeed, Kai Cenat, those guys. The way that they make their money is they have a ton of subscribers on these channels, people that tune into all their live streams, and they're able to get sponsorships for a shit ton of money. They're able to buy companies under their own holding companies and direct all of their viewers and subscribers to certain things.
I think what MrBeast does is more entertainment and philanthropy. He gives away a lot of money, but he does it in an entertaining way. He makes so much money from his subscriptions and his deals that he's able to continuously give that money back to his fans.
I think Speed does a great job of entertainment and community. Speed has a diehard community around him. He doesn't give away money in the same way that MrBeast does, but he's super entertaining. He's very down-to-earth and relates to all these people. Wherever he goes to different countries and sees their different cultures, people relate to Speed, and he continuously has a large number of viewers watching all of his content.
Someone in the chat said, “Black handsome MrBeast.” (laughter)
That's awesome.
Yeah, my view for ANOM is some combination of a meme. Obviously, I think the black bull meme is awesome and cool for the bull market. It’s some combination of Doge and something reflective of the creator economy.
I have this community of people who have been following me for 9 years plus on Twitter. They want to learn how to trade markets, how to get active in markets, and they’re also active on-chain. They spend a lot of money. I would say that my 1.1 million followers may be the most active and spending capital on the internet, across anybody on X. I’ll go to bat for that pretty hard because I just know how much the people on CT spend and how active they are as traders.
I want to combine the memes and this creator economy in a way that benefits everybody and give back some of the attention that I’m getting. I get a ton of sponsorship revenue. I get people who are interested in partnering with me and people who want to market with me. I have this show, Market Bubble, and people want to sponsor it. I’ve never really had a way to give back all the value I’m generating with the influence I have online to the people who are actually the reason I’m so influential.
I have all these people following me. Nobody would want to pay me sponsorship revenue if I didn’t have 1 million-plus followers on X, but I have no way of directly incentivizing those people. What I think with ANOM is that I have a way to align people around this token and also give value back to those people who are supporting me and have been supporting me for a really long time.
3. AI-Generated Market Bubble Commercial
On that note, LoMi, we’re going to give you a little $1,000 airdrop. You got a nice little reply to this really fresh graphic. Obviously, in this effort to flip MrBeast, we’re trying to give away $200 million in the next 6 months. We have a little subgoal, and the subgoal is to allocate $1 million of that to chat.
This will count as chat. Obviously, it’s happening live on the stream. LoMi has a fucking Pudgy Penguins avatar, and you know, we have Luca Netz coming on. This is just—yeah, in just 2 weeks, airdropping over $21 million is absolutely nuts. I agree. I fully agree.
4. Why the Andrew Tate Episode Got Cancelled
And I think it segues nicely into the next subject, which is a little bit less of a fun thing that we’re going to talk about. I don’t know how deep you want to go, but obviously we had this Andrew Tate episode planned, right?
I was fucking stoked on it because my dream is to really break this fucking show into mainstream algorithms and audiences. Tate is one of the biggest fucking—one of the biggest creators, I guess, celebrities, on the planet.
And, yeah, he posted this tweet, and it was just me talking about—
We’ll just watch it. We need to have Karina on. Honestly, next week is going to be Andrew Tate and Threadguy, but maybe the week after that is Karina, and Jake Paul is coming on soon, too. The show’s cracking, baby. We’re cracking.
Obviously, I’m excited about it. He posted that from his Twitter, and the plan was for him to come on. I hit him up, I organized it, and we had planned for it. I was like, “Brother, just don’t drop a coin. Let’s talk about whatever.” I didn’t even want to talk to him about crypto or markets, really. I just wanted to talk to him about attention—the attention part—because he’s phenomenal at that piece, you know?
I’m not so great at the crypto shit, though.
I don’t know. We had to cancel the episode. It’s just a conflict of interest. It made no sense to bring him on.
5. Ansem: Every Celebrity Coin Was a Scam
I mean, yeah, I’ll explain why. What happened with me last cycle was that I had this thesis that all these popular people outside of crypto have a shit ton of followers and a shit ton of distribution. If they come into crypto, there’s a way that they can use that distribution, which is external to crypto, in a positive way.
I was completely wrong on that—maybe the most wrong I’ve ever been on any thesis that I’ve had in crypto. All of them scammed. Every single person who joined crypto externally to try and use their distribution in crypto scammed people. Every single one of them.
Literally every single one. Everyone. What I realized is that these celebrities, quote-unquote, first, don’t actually have any fucking money. They’re broke as fuck. Second, they don’t give a fuck about crypto people at all.
What I realized is that their distribution outside of crypto does not matter at all because they don’t give a fuck about crypto people. Whenever they would launch these coins or partner with people to launch these coins, they would partner with somebody who bundles them. This anonymous dev has a shit ton of the supply. They get paid upfront for a few tweets about it, and then, as they’re doing that, whoever bundled the supply is selling on everybody’s heads.
They don’t tweet about it anymore after that, and then that’s it. That’s the top. Every single person who joined from outside of crypto to try to do something like that scammed people. This cycle, I’m not platforming any of those fuckers, bro. I’m not giving any attention to people who want to negatively impact crypto. I learned a lot last cycle. I’m not doing that again.
But I do know that there’s a good way to utilize your distribution and attention in a positive way, and that’s what I plan to do with ANOM. I just, bro, I don’t make the same mistake twice.
No more Captain Save-a-Hoe, bro. Celebrities are going to do what they’re going to do, like you said, across the board, regardless of who it was. In every single example, in every single case, everyone—
I mean, brother, I was with you in LA. Kanye West basically flew you out. You set aside a week of your life to go talk to him about markets and whatever at the peak of all the Solana hysteria and memecoin hysteria, and you gave him the absolute best advice you possibly could. You were obviously seen in rooms with him and seen on Twitter. He tweeted your name out. Somebody go fucking find me Ansem.
And then he dropped a fucking coin, bro. It’s the exact same. There are too many bad actors around these people who have a lot of influence.
I did talk to him. He did listen to some of the things that I told him when I was speaking with him, but in the actual execution of the project, I just wasn’t close enough to be able to tell him exactly what to do. But, yeah, I had a lot of great ideas for exactly how these types of things could work. These people have so many different avenues and levers that they can connect things to, but they just don’t do it well because there are too many bad actors around them influencing them to do—
I mean, bro, Afroman was like, “Yo, Black and I almost interacted with this dude.” I ignored this one. I didn’t interact with him at all, but something told me that this shit was going to be like this, bro.
They’re just—one, it’s really hard to keep attention on something for an extended period of time if you’re not in the weeds in crypto and don’t have a trusted community of people around you. And, two, they’re too short-term-oriented, bro. They’re too short-term-oriented.
It’s fucking—
Yeah, it’s fucking—
The Hawk Tuah thing. I went on her podcast, and they tried to do it sneakily—and not her, by the way. It’s really important to articulate that. Maybe we give them the benefit of the doubt too much. We’re too charitable with these celebrities.
Because I know a lot of people play dumb. That's kind of the move to make in that instance. But it is a lot of manager types, people close to them, and people in their inner circles pushing them to do this. They tried to drop a coin the day they were going to drop that podcast. I think she had already done the coin. We went on to try to talk to her about why this was bad and why she got such bad pushback on it. Then they tried to insider-trade it. I don't know about her team.
It's a fucking mess. But leave celebrities to do what they do. We're not going to play God.
I'm not touching it, bro. I'm not talking to any of them, bro.
Fuck them all.
If they want to get involved, they can buy ANOM or buy Solana. That's why they want to get involved. They can get involved that way.
6. The AI Interviews Banks & Ansem
Buy Bitcoin and shut the fuck up. They don't care. That segues pretty nicely into what you're doing, because I guess it's kind of along the same lines, right? To the average person, they would look at it as one and the same, but it's anything but. I think it's exactly the opposite, and I think it's because your goals and intentions are the exact opposite. Your incentives here are aligned kind of the opposite way.
Whereas the average celebrity comes in here, like you said, they don't give a fuck about crypto. Obviously, they're coming in here to make as much money as they possibly can, right?
Right.
Whereas your goal is to literally give away as much money as possible in this effort, right? So is there really anyone else who could do exactly what you're doing? Even just how important the attention piece is—you spoke to that earlier. You tweet 24/7, and that's nothing new. You've always been like that. You've always behaved like that. Why is what you're doing different? Why are you different? Do you want to expand on that?
Yeah. Obviously, a lot of people trust me. I think that's the biggest reason why what I'm doing is different. I have 58% of the supply right now. People are not concerned that I'm going to sell the supply. People know I'm using it in the best ways for marketing the project. People know I want to give it back to people. People know I want to utilize it with other protocols. They're aware that I'm super bullish on crypto.
I would never want to hurt the community of people that have put me where I am over the past 9 years. I would never do that. So that's the biggest thing. But also, a lot of people don't go all in with this shit. I'm all in with the shit. There's nobody who's going to be as all-in as me on crypto. It's not possible, so there's nobody who can really compete with me in that way.
It's also just the community that I've engaged with and formed over the past 9 years—1.1 million followers. All those 1.1 million followers I have on X are because I have been consistently putting out information that has helped people in markets and have been consistent with the things I'm putting out. Whenever I fuck up, people know I fucked up. I own my fuckups. I don't claim to be God or anything like that. I think people see that, and I think that allows people to trust me in a way that they don't trust other people. But a lot of people do this shit as side projects.
Can I say something real quick to that point? You doing more video content, even your video replies on Twitter—I know I've been—
Yeah, you've been drilling me on it.
Super annoying the last week. Like, “Yo, do more of these. Do 10 of these a day.” Obviously, this live show we spark up, we're live for about 4 hours. I think it's so much easier to see through the shit and see where someone's heart is and where their intentions are when they're candid and talking live like this.
It adds a whole other layer to it. I think it really is the final Infinity Stone for you in regard to why this actually makes sense for you and why you would be the only guy to do it with any sort of success. Like you said, you're the only one who's going to stick around through these crazy macro events. Sometimes they're good.
7. Robinhood Chain & Vlad's Crypto Pivot
Yeah, for more reasons than just one, I think it makes a lot of sense. On that note, a macro event—something that's been all over the timeline the past couple of days: Robinhood Chain. What do you think about that? You saw those tweets, obviously, from Vlad.
Yeah, I think it's sick. I think it's good, actually. I think it's net positive for somebody as big as Vlad and a product as big as Robinhood to be bullish on crypto and be active on-chain.
They have done some things poorly in the past. I know last cycle they delisted Solana at the lows, and people complained about them not allowing people to buy GME at a certain time in the market. So they fucked over their customers for sure sometimes. But I'm generally bullish on Robinhood Chain. I think it's good for crypto. I'm excited if they're able to bring more companies on-chain that aren't currently on-chain, and I do think they have huge distribution with their current centralized exchange.
Hopefully, they're more successful than Coinbase has been in getting all those people on-chain. I will say I think it's CT-native capital that drives a lot of the early flows in crypto. It's not going to be the 100 million retail customers that Robinhood has who drive things first. It's CT that drives things first. We're the ones who determine which trends happen and how they happen, because we're the ones with the most capital on-chain. The other people typically have to move capital on-chain, and we're the ones controlling those flows. But, yeah, I am bullish on Robinhood Chain. I think it's net positive for crypto for sure.
Can I just play devil's advocate and ask? We've seen this before, too—the new chain, the shiny new chain. We've seen this a few different times in crypto. Do people actually care about Robinhood, or do they care about Vlad posting about crypto and memes and stuff?
For traders, I don't think they necessarily care about Robinhood. They care about an opportunity where there's not as much capital and that they can be early to. I think that's why the new-chain thesis has always worked in crypto. Bridging to other L1s and bridging to L2s—that's why it works: you're early to being first there, and capital comes after you to bid these things. I think that's the main reason why.
Obviously, Vlad being directly bullish on the chain is super important and big, but he's not going to be tweeting directly about any specific coins or anything. I think he generally wants to drive volume and attention, and they're going to continue to highlight things that are doing well with volume and attention.
I mean, they've essentially won retail, right? It's a pretty big—
Yeah, they crushed retail. Robinhood crushes with retail, bro.
It's a pretty big pro. It's interesting, the Robinhood-versus-Coinbase thing, because one has successfully rooted itself in retail and has derived from onboarding retail, and it's done that to great success. Now it's trying to appeal more to crypto and build out features—
—and products for that crowd. Whereas Coinbase is literally a crypto app. It's a crypto product, and they're kind of in reverse. It's weird. They're both trying to be everything apps, but, like you're right, in reverse. Coinbase is now trying to do stocks and everything else, and Robinhood is now trying to do more crypto.
I think a lot of these products that have distribution are going to be that way. We've seen Polymarket also working on perps. I think a lot of people are trying to verticalize the stack. I think that's going to continue to be a trend. If you have distribution, you're going to try and own as much of it as possible. There's no reason you'd want your users to go and trade crypto somewhere else or go and trade stocks somewhere else if you can't enable it all in the same application. I think that's going to be a big thesis going forward in finance with retail.
Why I asked you the question earlier about Vlad and whether you think people actually care about Robinhood or care about Vlad posting about Robinhood is that I saw this take from Ash Robin. Ash Robin is one of the very few people who's making any sort of attempt at video content in CT, and I thought this was a pretty fresh take. I just want to go over it with you.
Let's talk about this Robinhood Chain thing real quick, because I'm seeing everybody start to glaze Robinhood and say how it's going to be the greatest chain of all time and how it's different this time from everything else.
And so I've been thinking about this a little bit. Of course, every time there is a new memecoin runner or a coin on a chain, everyone all of a sudden starts to talk about how it's the greatest thing ever. Now, I'm going to start by saying I like when coins are going up. I like memecoins. I like shitcoins and stuff.
But one thing that I think is funny is mainly the market behavior, right? Do people really care about Robinhood, or do they care about the fact that the CEO of Robinhood made a post? I'm going to clue you in on something right now: The market doesn't give a fuck who is behind anything anymore, really, at all. What do they care about? They care about posts.
Why did the BNB season in October—last October—go super crazy? Because CZ and his wife and the CEO, and every single coin that launched, were based off a tweet. It was based off a post. Why did Telegram go super crazy? Because the CEO made a post, and then he stopped posting.
And then everything died down.
Why did Asteroid go up to $200 million? Because Elon made a post. Why is it down? Because Elon hasn't posted. What does every group chat say about Asteroid? "When Elon tweets, it's going to go up." We're just waiting for this fucking SpaceX store.
It's the same thing with Ansem. Why is Ansem going up? Well, obviously, Ansem is somebody who's very well known. He's like the biggest crypto influencer in the fucking world—the MrBeast of finance, some would say.
That's stupid.
Why does the coin keep going up? Because all he's doing is saying, "Oh, bro does tweets, bro." And guess what happened? TJR started tweeting. Brett Scales started tweeting. Everybody on the timeline started tweeting, and there hasn't been a single 3-hour period—
You guys get the point. But it's a fresh take, bro. It's so real. It's so valid. Is it that simple?
Attention is currency, bro. Attention is truly currency. One of the reasons I'm doing airdrops to Anthem holders specifically, and to people who are holding and creating content on X, is because if I have an army of 100,000 people who are posting about this coin and are aligned in the community with this coin, that's more marketing than I can ever do on my own.
I'm 1 person. I tweet a fuckload, but if I have 100,000 people who are also tweeting as much as I'm tweeting, and are aligned on the vision of giving back this much money—and we're going to give back more than $200 million in the next 6 months just by being bullish on this coin and wanting it to go up—we know it's going to do well. We want to be net positive for crypto. We want to use all these different protocols and be bullish on all these new things getting built on-chain.
That's it. That's exponential. That's multiplicative.
Army of men. Army of mail. Listen, we've got the chat pulled up in the middle. Pick somebody, bro. Fuck it. Pick somebody. I'll write their name down.
Chat, let them know. Don't pick an address.
Chat, give them some—"Banks is pushing 40." You're not getting fucked. How's that, dumbass? How's that? Whoever said "Trenches Unite," I fuck with him. I like Trenches Unite.
Trenches.
That's fucking fast as fuck. Y'all are going to stop because they're hearing us now. They're hearing us now.
Dude, it's moving too quick, bro.
Dude, it's building the biggest community. Whoever said that, I fuck with him.
Okay. Trenches Unite, bro. We're literally going to be the biggest community on the internet.
And community.
I stamp it, bro. Biggest community.
We'll go back in the VOD and find you. You're each going to get $1,000. We'll have some mod go and get your Solana addresses. But no, this is lit. Watch and earn, baby. I fucking love what we're building here, bro. As we automate this process more and more, and add all these cool gamified tools—we've talked about bounties and stuff—it's going to be sick, bro. We have an opportunity to really build something brand new with this fuck—
You know what's crazy? You know what's fucking crazy? Just between me and you—this is less for the audience and more for me and you, bro—we talked about doing this before the Black Bull thing even happened. It's almost like divine timing. Isn't that crazy?
Yeah, it is pretty crazy.
It's so wild, bro. We talked about this watch-and-earn type thing and effort and idea way before this was ever a thing. It's all kind of falling into place. It's fucking sick, bro.
It kind of just happened, bro. It kind of happened organically.
8. Robinhood vs. Coinbase: Who Wins?
But the best things do. The best things do. The best things always do. We knew that this was an important thing to build.
I think I already know what you're going to say. I've heard you say you don't really have strong opinions on this, but who do you think wins: Robinhood or Coinbase?
Damn, that's fucking tough, bro.
Chat, who do you guys think wins?
Who wins in crypto?
Overall. Which company has a bigger market cap in, like, 5 years: Robinhood or Coinbase?
I guess both. Both. That's hard, bro. That's hard. Let me look at what the fuck Robinhood is at right now.
Chat's spamming Coinbase, which, honestly, you love to see because I feel like it's very interesting. Coinbase gets shit on in CT. I constantly see Coinbase FUD. I constantly see people shitting on Coinbase and Jesse.
It's weird, too, because it's a crypto-native product and platform. So you'd expect—then you see Robinhood come out of the cut, Vlad posts 1 pro-crypto tweet, 1 pro-meme tweet, and the fucking glaze fest begins. Glaze, Banks.
Yeah, I think it's because Coinbase has been in crypto forever. Obviously, they're the crypto-native company. But I think the reason that some of the timeline doesn't fuck with Coinbase as much is because they're not as close to the culture as they should be with crypto.
People see them as too corporate. If you're not supportive of what people actually want to do on-chain in crypto, then people aren't going to fuck with you in that way. That's why, when Vlad was like, "I'm not only bullish on RWAs, I'm bullish on memes, too," everybody was like, "Yo, this dude's a fucking goat," because that's what people were trading.
I think memecoins are part of the culture in crypto. It's something that's never really going to go away. But if you're not supportive of everything that's happening on your chain, and you just pick and choose what you want to direct attention to, then it's kind of slippery. It's tricky. It's slippery. You have to be in the weeds. I think you do have to be in the weeds.
I'd say Robinhood probably has a slight advantage right now. I know they're already larger by market cap, but—
I'll be honest with you: As of now, Robinhood is clear, far and away, the winner—or winning the race, if I were to be honest. Again, this is just from my retardio, fucking normie POV.
We talked to Sal before this, who uses both of the apps a lot. I don't use either app a ton—Coinbase a little bit here and there, Robinhood a little bit here and there—but Sal regularly uses both, and he said that he likes Robinhood's product better.
I mean, historically, it's always been a pretty fucking wise way to invest your money. You invest in good products first and foremost, right? Good products eventually will win out, typically. But they also just have that fucking crazy distribution. They have retail fully onboarded and have made it so easy for these people to trade stocks and traditional assets.
Yeah. They're talking about trading real-world assets and trading crypto. I don't know, man. I don't know. But I feel like they're ahead currently. I feel like Coinbase needs to make a couple of moves.
Someone said, "Coinbase is the lesser of 2 evils." I'm not sure that either are evil. They're financial institutions, financial apps, and they—
Why would—Robinhood did some evil shit last cycle, bro. They did some evil shit. Delisting Solana at the bottom?
This shit was $16.
That was sick. I have some at $16, bro. $16. It went to $297. It was $16 at rock bottom.
Yeah, it's fucked up.
Rock bottom. How did they delist it? It was fucked up.
They also delisted GameStop at the top, right?
Yeah. They allowed people to—
That's the more fucked-up one. I think that is the more fucked-up one, because people said that the retail buying pressure, or whatever, was kind of cut off because you couldn't buy on Robinhood, and that's where a lot of the volume was happening.
It was fucked up. It was fucked up institutional money.
9. Michael Saylor Sold Bitcoin & the Market Didn't Care
The only people who get hurt in that scenario are retail. It’s the average guy. It’s the guy who’s trying to come up quick on some memecoin or on GameStop. And it’s ironic, too, because the app’s name is Robinhood. I had a tweet about this when it was all going down.
It was fucked up.
But yeah, I don’t know. It’s an interesting conversation. We’ll see where it goes. I think there’s a place in the market for both, just to be clear, by the way. What else happened this week? Michael Saylor sold more Bitcoin.
The market really didn’t give a fuck, which I think is great news. I think it’s good, bro. I think it’s good. I know we talked about it a little bit—I think it was 2 episodes ago—and I gave my thesis that I think people are pricing in Saylor selling right now. I think they’ve been overreacting to it, with more fear than the current situation warrants.
People think he’s going to sell $40 billion in Bitcoin. He’s not going to sell $40 billion in Bitcoin. That’s just not going to happen right now. They passed something that essentially said they have the ability to sell up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin, if necessary, to support their cash reserve. They said how much cash reserve they currently have. I believe they have 25 months of runway on their payments for their preferreds, which is good.
Immediately after that announcement, they sold $225 million worth of Bitcoin at $60,000. So, literally, they were selling Bitcoin into the bottom, and we went up. We’re at around $63,000 right now. I think we honestly priced in the worst-case scenario before it actually happened, and what we’re going to continue to see is that Saylor overhang matter less and less. It’s going to be a lot cleaner. I think if Bitcoin trades back above $66,000, that’s a really key level.
I think the concerns around Saylor are already kind of priced in. You saw that when Saylor announced he was going to be selling, and they sold a very small amount of Bitcoin—not a lot—we went straight down from around $80,000 to $60,000. Then they actually sold $200 million worth of Bitcoin at $60,000, and we went up. So I think that’s pretty clear on how it got priced in.
Michael Saylor, man. It’s great news. It’s great news. Massive sell-off, and the selloff got eaten up immediately. It’s a good thing.
Yeah, very good. It’s good timing, too, because stocks haven’t been performing as well. Memory stocks like Micron and SanDisk have been nonstop ripping all year. Everybody’s like, “Why the fuck would I be holding anything else but memory?” And semis are like, “Why the fuck would I buy crypto?”
They’ve sold off a little bit over the past few weeks and have kind of been consolidating. If you see crypto’s relative strength continue, with Bitcoin, Solana, Hyperliquid, and even Lighter doing well, I think we could see a lot of momentum pretty quickly. Lighter’s been doing well. I think its partnership with Robinhood is pretty underdiscussed on the timeline so far.
Kind of crazy. It hasn’t been talked about a lot. There’s some Marvel versus Capcom shit going on, you know what I mean? It’s fucking crazy—Hyperliquid versus Lighter.
Yeah, it’s pretty crazy. Lavish Jeff versus Bryant[?]. But yeah, I think if crypto assets continue to show relative strength, we could see a lot of momentum pretty quickly.
You said Lighter’s partnership seems massive.
Yeah, that’s huge, bro. I think Lighter is something like 1/40th of the FDV of Hyperliquid right now. They’re obviously not as successful and don’t make as much money, but I do think Lighter is a good trade.
You think that’s a good trade, though? Lighter.
Yeah, I do think Lighter is a good trade. I think Lighter is a good trade.
I think so.
Yeah, especially because of how small it is. It’s pretty small.
Why do you think Robinhood partnered with them?
The founder of Lighter actually has some pretty good connections, I think, to the Robinhood CEOs. They’ve known each other. He also worked in TradFi. Let me not fuck this up. Where did he work in TradFi? He worked at one of the big TradFi firms before doing crypto. Yeah, chat—where did Vlad from Lighter work before? Citadel. Yeah, he worked at Citadel.
I think it’s a good spot. I think it’s one of the less-talked-about spots, to be honest.
I have to piss. Maybe let me tee you up on some sauce. What do we want to talk about?
Talk about Solana. Solana’s going to $80,000—$80 trillion gazillion jillion market cap.
Do you think Solana is going to win the AI race? Who’s most poised from an on-chain perspective? That’s what we all expect for this next cycle, I guess: the big winners are probably going to be in some way, shape, or form related to AI—the emergence of AI and that technology. Solana is the fastest and cheapest. You’re the Solana guy. How do you feel? Talk to us about Solana.
I think Solana is going to continue to do really well this cycle. Obviously, last cycle a lot of the on-chain activity was driven by memes and Pump.fun, and a lot of the terminals were the main applications on Solana, which is fine. But they were really far behind on perps. Right now, they’re catching up on perps with products like BULK.trade and Phoenix Trade. Those are going to be extremely important for Solana.
I think they’ve made a lot of infrastructure developments natively on the blockchain that are going to allow those things to be a lot easier to build. My thesis for Solana this cycle is that you’re not only going to have breakout applications with memes and consumer products, but you’re also going to have breakout applications in perp finance, artificial intelligence, and other kinds of consumer applications like Collector Crypt[?].
Specifically for AI, it makes a ton of sense that Solana is the L1 that gets the most interest there. One, because it’s the cheapest and most performant, but also because they get a lot of important developer interest. They do a good job of bringing in people external to crypto in that way.
The open-source AI community is only going to continue to grow faster and faster and get bigger and bigger. Right now, you have these large labs that dominate and are valued at $1 trillion-plus in private markets, right? But I think the design space for open-source AI, and for building products and protocols in that area, is going to be where you see the smaller startups do well.
We had Mert on a few weeks ago, and he essentially said that Solana wants to be the home for entrepreneurs to come and thrive and do well. I think they're going to continue to build a chain that enables that for people, so I'm super bullish on that. I think it's kind of overlooked right now—the tech plays and the infrastructure plays on Solana. I think that's actually one of the interesting spots that's going to be good this cycle, for sure.
Everything you said, I fully agree with. I got up and took a piss. That's why he's laughing.
But, yeah, AI and Solana—I think that could segue easily into the fact that obviously we have Luca Netz coming on. We'll open up his tweet and talk about all the airdrop stuff. I honestly can't wait to fucking have this conversation with you and him, and just talk about how important attention has been historically for crypto—how you guys have become outliers in this market because of how much time and energy you've spent accumulating attention.
10. GPT Live Trailer Reaction & AI Psychosis
Our second guest of the day is actually not a human being. It's our first nonhuman guest, our first artificial guest, and we're going to be talking back and forth with GPT Live for an hour, maybe an hour and a half. Honestly, I'm really fucking excited about this.
Did you see the trailer, the announcement? Because I haven't seen it yet.
Let's watch it together, all together as a chat. Chat, this is important. OpenAI tweet. This is fucking nuts. I've been seeing Frank DeGods's tweets nonstop—some Ansem shit about GPT Live—and he's been glued to it for the last 24 hours.
Yes, I have been seeing those tweets.
We'll get into it. We'll get into it.
I'm making a sweater for my grandson, but I don't want the needles to be too big. What do you think?
If you go up, it's going to get kind of baggy.
Although baggy is very popular now, don't you think?
I know, right?
I'm ready. Today we are announcing the all-new ChatGPT, powered by GPT Live 1, a full-duplex conversational partner that is the most powerful.
This is the future, brother.
It literally is the future. Literally.
This is fucking hype.
Can you explain what a full-duplex voice model is?
Yeah. Imagine a normal call with a friend. You can listen and talk at the same time. That's full duplex.
This is now pushing voice technology closer to how real people talk to each other, where it can follow interruptions, pauses, corrections, and the natural flow of thinking things out loud. Let me know.
We're going to find out today, live.
To tell you more, I'm planning a trip to Santorini. I want to spend—
People were so smart for this, by the way.
Yeah. Very good.
Well, this should have 600 million views.
Break now. Bye.
Okay. I'm here if you need me.
I know. Natural conversation is nice, but I'm more interested in whether it can think. ChatGPT's voice can reason through harder problems and search the web for up-to-date information. Hey, let me show you.
Okay, I'm giving a lecture. Chat, granny looking good here. You're a sick fuck.
dates phone autograph in 1857, Edison's tinfoil photograph in 1865, and Berlin's gramophone in 1987.
Hey, yo, somebody in chat said, “Banks in 2 years.” Ban that shit right now. Find him. Find him. Scroll up. Ban him for life. You're not getting shit. You're getting no airdrops. You're not watching the show ever again.
No, I'm just kidding. Find him and give him $1,000. Fuck it. It was a funny joke. Give it to him. Give him the airdrop. Fuck it. Don't ban him—unless you already have him in the queue. Fuck him.
1887. I'll check those.
Okay. And while you're looking, can you find out if there are any delays at the 16th Street BART station?
Sure.
Okay. And then I need to know if it's going to rain this afternoon.
I think we get the point, right? Old people can use it. Smart, good campaign. This shit should have 600 million views, bro. This is the future.
That shit's crazy. It's insane.
That shit is crazy. And, yeah, Frank has been fucking spam-posting about this. Honestly, he's the only guy I really see who's super, super hyped on this.
Yeah, Frank's actually been on top of a lot of the AI stuff. Frank's been super early on a lot of the new AI stuff pretty consistently now for about a year, I think.
He's the GOAT. I called him because I said, “Yo, we're doing this interview. What do you think?” I asked him for some questions, or whatever. We had about a 30-minute conversation, and he was like, “Bro, the last time I felt like this about anything in AI was Opus 4.5.”
When Opus 4.5 dropped, he made his rounds and called everybody, like, “Yo, you need to get on this. You need to spend time.” That's when he onboarded me. That's when he got me set up with Clawbot and all this shit.
He said this is fucking extremely bullish on low-latency compute, whatever the fuck that means. I mean, he's—
Maybe it's just AI psychosis. GPT Live is marked at the bottom.
Oh, he's talking about stocks, I think.
Yeah. Yeah.
It's crazy. But, yeah, this is going to be interesting, bro. Production says it's all set up. We're going to be able to have a fluid conversation with this thing. From what I understand, this will be the first live stream, live show, live conversation with GPT Live.
Regardless, history is being made today on this episode. It's honestly a beautiful accident, having had to cancel Tate at the last minute, but—
Yeah, no, it should be cool. It should be cool, bro.
What are the implications of this AI psychosis? This is fucking crazy, bro.
Yeah, I think you're going to see people use AI for a lot more of their day-to-day dialogue, and I'm not sure it's necessarily good for the quality of conversation between people, to be honest. But I think the people who are still able to generate their own original thoughts are just going to be so much more organized and do research so much more efficiently and effectively by using these tools on a day-to-day basis.
But the people who, whenever they have some emotional issue, just ask AI how they should respond to it—I think that's going to get really tricky for people. I think that's kind of the line you don't want to cross. For me, in your interpersonal relationships, you don't want to be using AI to dictate how you should respond. But in work and professional settings, when you're doing research for stocks or for your job, or coding and things like that, I think it makes a lot more sense to use AI in that way.
I think the AI psychosis comes from when people are using it for everything and they're not thinking on their own. They're like, “Oh, well, AI told me this, so this must be correct.” People who go to therapy a lot can spend so much time in therapy that they don't really—
People in their own way.
They just take at face value whatever the therapist said is correct. Like, “Oh, this person did this to me, and my therapist told me that they were doing X, Y, and Z to me, and now this person's terrible.” They don't really take into account how they can—
This is a sick take because it's in line with “if you don't use it, you lose it.” There are obviously more objective, scientific, mathematical examples of this.
If you stop working out, for example—if you stop lifting weights every day—you get weaker. Muscle deteriorates. You stop, and your muscle goes away. If you take painkillers every day, your brain and your body stop producing naturally the chemicals they use to deal with pain, and then you become addicted and physically dependent on those painkillers.
It's kind of like porn, too. Porn is obviously another huge thing. It's this pandemic that so many people are strongly against, and it's been proven to be super catastrophic and damaging in terms of people's relationships and their relationship with sex.
I don't know how this could ever do anything positive for the grand scheme of things. Again, if you're smart, you can navigate anything. You can deal with anything, right? Like you said, the smarter people—the sharper people, the people who use this for what it should be and apply it to their lives—become more organized, more structured, and more successful as a result.
But the average person’s [inaudible].
They might just fall into this loop where, like you said, their only friend in the world is AI. They’re in a Call of Duty lobby with 5 other robots. They have no friends, and it’s like—I don’t know. It’s Black Mirror, brother. We say it every episode.
It is, bro. It’s only going to get scarier, to be honest. But the good thing is that, as this stuff gets more advanced, it’s going to be able to solve so many more things.
It’s great for us. You can go check the VOD—we’ve been talking about an AI co-host since episode 1. We want a tool like this. We want to be able to ask, in real time, what the price of Solana is, what the weather is outside, or where Vlad—or Lighter[?]—worked before. You were trying to cite some information earlier.
Yeah, to have GPT or Claude in real time.
I’m going to ask him about paying, bro. I’m going to ask him to stop—
Anything. Anything.
11. Is Anthropic Losing Aura? Claude vs. ChatGPT
We’re just going to go live with this thing and see where it goes. On that note, Claude versus GPT: I asked you this a couple of days ago, before GPT Live even went live.
Why does it feel like Anthropic is losing aura?
Yeah, bro. You remember that guy I told you about, Roy—the Twitter account?
Yes.
Bro, he actually has a really good take on Anthropic versus the other models.
Bring up the tweet. Let me pull it up. Is it this one? This is it. Okay, here we go.
The short version is that Anthropic is essentially limited on compute in a way that ChatGPT is not because of how they invested early on. Because of this, they’ve had to make changes and restrictions on how people interact with their models. What people have been saying recently about Claude is that you aren’t able to do as much as you could before, and the product is deteriorating for heavy-use workloads.
With ChatGPT, on the API side and with Codex, you’ve been able to do a lot more, much more efficiently. Essentially, he said that Anthropic is really, really good at marketing its product, but that it’s not actually as good under the surface as ChatGPT and some of the other models.
This post talks about the different parts of the stack with LLMs: the harness, which is the software that calls the model API from the provider. This is what you actually install and use—Claude Code, Codex, Droid, Pi, OpenCode, and all these different tools. He’s used all of them, and if you read this guy’s tweets, he’s obviously very well educated on using these products. It’s been cool to follow him and learn from him.
The harness is how efficiently you’re able to use the underlying model. Then there’s the model itself, which is the actual LLM—how the weights are trained and all those different things. Then there’s serving and inference: the compute infrastructure and network that the model runs on and is served remotely to users.
Here’s what he says about Anthropic. His comment was, “They didn’t buy nearly enough compute the last few years.” So you see them trying to solve this problem in real time. You can see it with the partnership with Google. They had to use a lot of Google’s spare compute because they didn’t have enough, and that was in turn for an investment in them.
I love when this happens. I love when there are a whole bunch of technical reasons why something is the case, and I’m just like, “I don’t know. I just felt like this, you know? I wonder why.”
Because I’m sure as shit not doing this, by the way, chat. I’m not diving into compute, and I’m not borrowing compute from Twitter. That’s what Ansem’s job is on the show.
I just feel ChatGPT inching ahead. And obviously, with this GPT Live shit, for me, again, and for what I feel—
Damn, look at Luca in the waiting room. Handsome as shit. Speaking of aura—
Aura.
Hello.
12. Luca Netz Joins (Pudgy Penguins CEO)
Chat, we have Luca Netz, the CEO of Pudgy Penguins, in the waiting room. We want you guys to give him a warm welcome and let us know what you’re thinking about the show so far. I think it’s fucking great. We’re cruising. We have this chat aggregator in the middle, as you guys can see. W Luca. Let’s get some W Lucas.
Production, bring him in whenever you want. I think we’re ready to go.
Yeah, cool.
Let’s rip it.
Hey, what’s up? Can you see us?
Yeah, I can see you. Can you see me?
What up, you handsome son of a bitch? Let’s go. We’re back in the 6'5-plus club on the show, bro.
Oh, yeah. That is what it is.
Am I the shortest person here?
Yeah, you are.
At 6'5, and I’m the brokest. That’s crazy, bro. That’s fucking crazy.
Wow. Only here, man. Only here.
Listen, chat, this is where you want to be, though. This is where you want to be. Holy shit. Luca, we’ve spoken enough for you. I’m sure most of the chat knows exactly who you are and where you come from, but do you want to introduce yourself to the chat?
Yeah, I’m Luca Netz. I’m the CEO of Pudgy Penguins, and in the spirit of the Market Bubble podcast, I’ve been hustling and making money since I was 18 years old. So I’m excited about all things like that.
You and I have a little bit of lore. We met at the Clout House in 2017, and CryptoPunks came out in 2017. So neither of us were anywhere near NFTs. It’s funny, because I met Zaptio around the same year, maybe a year after that, and he was pitching me on this CryptoKicks vision. I was like, “Dude, get the fuck out of my living room.” I was the biggest vlogger in the world at the time. I missed out on probably generational wealth there.
You were working. What were you doing during that time? Why would we have been in the same room during that time?
I was monetizing social influence. My whole business was going to influencers who weren’t making that much money and trying to monetize their brands through e-commerce. My whole thing was, “You have millions of followers; you should have millions of dollars.” Banks, you know this—a lot of those guys at the time didn’t have any money. So I was the monetization solution: you have followers, you have attention, and here’s how to make money.
I think that’s the one thing all 3 of us have in common. Obviously, there’s massive overlap and roots back into crypto for all 3 of us, some more than others. But I think the one thing we’ve all had to offer, and where a lot of our value comes from individually, is that attention piece. That’s proving to be more and more important every day.
We preach a lot here on the show that, in the next 5 to 10 years, especially if you’re young and don’t have things figured out, you should focus on making as much money as you possibly can, command as much attention as you can, understand attention, and leverage AI. These are the things we feel are most likely going to keep their value and likely increase in value over the next 5 to 10 years.
Speak to that a little bit—attention—because you are an outlier. I think you and Z are definitely serious outliers, and a lot of your success derives from your ability to attention-farm.
Dude, I just saw the bottom of this thing. It says, “CEO, Pudgy Penguins, 6'6.” You’re fucking hilarious.
That’s way too funny.
I think there are a couple of points. One is just the Zaptio story. I remember seeing him doing that for the first year, and I was like, “How’s this kid going to make any money?” Ironically enough, he made a lot of money.
To the chat who doesn’t know the story, Zaptio sold Artifact to Nike for 9 figures.
Yeah.
And he pitched us both very early on this product. It’s insane, and it just looked like a money loser.
Facts. He was the first to it.
I think it all comes down to attention. Banks, I’ve always respected this about you. People have long said—and I’ve always taken this stance—that people build great products, sure, but if you can’t put eyeballs on them, what is a great product? I think there have been a lot of stories like that.
13. Why Being Young & Broke Is a Superpower
You did mention something that I think would be useful for the chat. You mentioned age, and I love speaking to the younger generation. A lot of people watching are in the younger generation, so understand that your age and being young are such a superpower.
As time goes on, you become less risk-averse. As you get older, you might find a girlfriend, you might get her pregnant, or a family member might get sick. Your tolerance for taking risks becomes exponentially smaller. As you’re younger—my story and my claim to fame is that I tested out of school when I was 15.
So when people look at my success at my age, they're like, “Dude, you're so successful.” I'm like, “Yeah, but I've been doing this for 13 years. I'm 28 now.” My whole life has been doing this. If you look at it from that time horizon, I think most people who dedicated their life to making money for 13 years would reach some relative success. As you get older, your risk tolerance gets lower.
When you have a show like this and you're speaking to that younger generation, it's such a special opportunity because I think the people listening don't really understand how important it is for them to take the information here and take risks. Lose it all. I can't tell you how many times I've lost it all. Put it all on the line because you can suffer the consequences of that. But when you have a kid, or if a family member is sick, or there are bills and rent to be paid, I mean, if you're not paying rent and not paying for food, you're in such an amazing situation. Now's the time that you can actually take risks, lose it all, and keep running it back until you find something. That'd be my advice to it. And then, obviously—
I'm of the stance to just learn how to get eyeballs, right? No matter what. I mean, just to piggyback on that, we talk about this a lot on the show, and I personally think it's never been a better time in human history to be a broke young person with an internet connection and all the time in the world.
By far.
I think that—
By far, by far. You can do anything, bro, with infinite time right now.
You can build anything. You're almost in a way better spot than somebody who's tied to their rent and has to make payments, who's forced to work their 9-to-5 because they have overhead—you know, they have families, et cetera. That's why what Luca is preaching about is you have nothing to lose, you know, like if you—
To be a person with nothing to lose in 2026 is a really good spot to be in.
Go and just fucking sit on Claude all day, sit on GPT Live all day, go build shit, go tinker around, go learn how to leverage AI, watch shows like this, learn about attention, learn about markets. Yeah, it's amazing why we felt it would be appropriate to bring you on specifically now.
14. The $1.6 Billion Pudgy Airdrop Story
Obviously, you made this tweet, and you're the fucking king of airdrops. What you did with Pudgy Penguins—we'll get into it—but you tweeted, kind of in the midst of this Ansem hysteria, Ansemmania. You tweeted something along the lines—I have it here: “What Ansem is doing with his token probably reinvents how airdrops are done forever. In hindsight, it was obvious, but the idea you have an evergreen, recurring airdrop is actually the way to do it and the highest-EV way to distribute tokens.”
There were a couple more follow-up tweets, and Ansem chimed in, but I've been echoing this narrative of the MrBeast of finance because I think it's very, very strong. I don't think anyone's considering the possibility of Ansem stepping into that role, and I see it very clearly now. There's a very clear path toward that. What does that look like in a market like this? I don't know. You want to talk about your airdrop, why Ansem's doing what he's doing, and why you think it's the right thing to do? You guys want to just go back and forth on that shit?
Well, dude, I'm going to tell you, Ansem, you're fucking doing something over there, man. [Laughter]
It's honestly nice to see. It's honestly nice to see because you know what comes with that. I think you're doing that—
For the people, by the people, which I respect, right? I respect that deeply. It seems like you're really trying to put the space on your back. For those of you guys who don't know, Ansem's had some motion for a long time—probably one of the only few guys left who has serious motion in terms of, when you actually tweet about something, at least I can speak for myself, I listen, because I've just seen you be right so many times.
But I mean, this was obvious, and it kind of pains me because I mean, $1.6 billion in free money that we kind of gave out, and in hindsight, this was the better strategy.
You said—what's the number?
Yeah, we did. When we airdropped PENGU, it was 50% of the supply, and it launched and basically held $3 billion until Liberation Day. So it was about a $1.5 billion airdrop that we gave people.
Yeah. See, this absolute legend—you're the fucking GOAT. And this is why people hold Pudgy Penguins in high regard, and you as a founder, in high regard.
But, bro, why do more people not know about that? This whole—I mean, MrBeast has created this entire brand, platform, and career for himself by giving away effectively $200 million, give or take, over the course of his entire decade-plus career. You guys essentially did that in a week: $1.6 billion in a week. And there aren't enough people who know about that. Legendary.
Yeah, Ansem. Some people will fight it. They'll be like, “You don't know how liquidity works. You didn't actually do that.” But we were trading billions of dollars in volume a day, so I actually do know how that works. It'd be different if we didn't, but that was a real $1.5 billion.
And it's funny you bring this up, Banks, because there is a fundamental flaw in how it's structured and executed. I think, Ansem, you're fixing this. I mean, it's the first experiment, so I'm rooting for you. I'm supporting you. I'm a big holder because I'm just like, dude, this one working out is going to be super interesting.
Logically, it should work out if you run the logical thought process, because if you think about it, the market can absorb the distribution, right? I learned this with PENGU, and with what you're doing, it actually can be a freight train that you can compound exponentially longer.
In the real world, you'd walk around like the president. You'd walk around Los Angeles like the absolute man. But here, you give it, and then they forget about it, and then they'll laugh at you two months later if you make a mistake. So it's just a very strange culture. There's both a blessing and a curse that comes with that.
But in hindsight, as somebody who's, you know, $1.5 billion, $1.6 billion into distributing tokens to holders, if I would have thought about it more deeply—which I thought I did—this strategy is the right strategy. How can you do it daily? How can you point people in the right direction? It's just way more EV, because the problem with the one-time event is the idea that they come in and then they leave you, right? Almost like a—I want to say it sounds pretty grotesque if I said what I wanted to say, but kind of like a used cloth, you know what I mean? You just—
A jerkoff rag. Is that what you want to say? You say whatever the fuck you want on this show, brother.
Yeah, something along those lines. It's like you're here today and gone tomorrow, right? But in this case, Ansem can carry the attention. What I learned is there's no greater distribution of attention than MrBeast, and I love the whole MrBeast of crypto and finance. I think that's genius. I mean, Banks, these monikers you come up with—it's your natural-born talent, frankly, one of them at least.
But this idea that you can keep it going is so much of a better strategy simply because of the attention. I learned this with PENGU. People forget, but when we did that whole sprint for those last couple of weeks, I was clocking 10 million, 20 million views a video on X. There wasn't a post that we would make that wasn't getting millions of views, right?
And using that attention as leverage to get more people involved in it and more eyeballs onto it.
I don't know. It's brand-new, and I think it's in everybody's best interest. That's why I think we've seen the overwhelming positive sentiment around it. It's in everybody's best interest, whether you hold the shit or not. If you have anything to do with crypto, it's in your best interest.
15. Banks Wants to Marry a Robot
It's kind of like Bitcoin going up is good. Look, I'm in a group chat with a bunch of really big founders in crypto. And, Ansem, you probably don't know this. I'll tell it to you live on the show, but I've got a proliferation fund. I've got allocations that I can still distribute that I always planned I would do some further distribution. I'm watching your success as the data point to be like, “This is how I distribute more tokens in the future,” right?
I know other guys—you know me, I've always championed this behind the scenes. I'm in chats with other founders being like, “Dude, when this thing runs the gajillions, right? Not financial advice, but if he sends this thing, this is evidence that this is the way to do it.” And if—
Changes everything, bro.
It does.
I'm super bullish on it. I think I've never had— For me, I trade all these narratives in crypto, right? I trade on-chain coins. I trade memes. I trade L1s, and I'm able to identify when momentum is shifting and when attention is getting pointed in some direction.
That's just as a trader. I'll be able to identify when these things are happening and make money on them as a trader. But all the coins I talk about—all these low caps and mid-caps on-chain—I never have the supply. I never have any of the supply, and I never know who has it. I never know who the anonymous people are who bought it at $0 market cap, $10K market cap, and I never know what's going to happen when I talk about it.
A lot of the time when I talk about it, the people who were in super low are selling because they're using this attention as a way to exit. But I'm like, why don't you flip it? I have all of this supply, and you have 100K-plus holders of people that want more of the supply. So, what should I direct them to do so that they can get access to more of the supply?
Well, I can direct them to do essentially anything. And if I can make it net positive for crypto—if I want them to use these protocols, help me with marketing, do IRL stuff with teaching people, or do educational stuff—like the guy Spicer, he does educational videos on X and on TikTok. If I can get people to learn more about how to trade well, how to manage their portfolio well, and how to manage their risk, and that's all connected to this 1 coin, it's not just me doing the marketing. I have 100K people doing the marketing, and it's not just me directing all this.
It's a constant, steady flow of these things, because if I have a lot of the supply, I can drip this out as long as I want to drip this out. Especially if you highlight a smaller portion of the people who are doing really great things and excelling, you don't have to give people a chance to claim a large percentage of the supply at 1 time. You can highlight individuals or highlight groups of people.
So that's how I've been thinking about it. I think it does make sense. I'm kind of doing it from first principles. I've never done it before. I'm not copying anybody's playbook. I guess nobody is. So, yeah, it's interesting.
Well, I'll give you some alpha. You want to know 1 thing that you can throw into this equation?
Yeah.
Let's use Bullpen as an example. I don't know if Bullpen has any plans to do a token, but use it as the example because it's easy and it's at the back of your screen.
You direct Ansem holders to use Bullpen, you airdrop them, and then, in exchange, Bullpen then airdrops those users that came in from Ansem. You could do that with a new trading terminal, right? The next Photon, right? “Hey, point people, Ansem community, go use Photon. I'm going to reward the people that go and perform this action.”
You have a deal with Photon being like, “I'm going to bring users to your platform. Take care of them when it's time for you to TGE,” and then you create this reciprocal flywheel. It was actually 1 of my regrets, because we did Pudgy at such a big sprint. I had done a couple of deals like this, but I hadn't realized how many deals I could have done like this, where I airdropped a ton of other people's communities. What I didn't do is set a clear expectation that I expect another airdrop for my community—
By me doing this. So, we had done a deal like that, but I felt like I could have done 10 if I had more time.
It could be so insane.
I have thought about this really heavily. The reason I'm thinking about this more—I don't know if I can share this. How do I share my screen with just me and—
I got you. I got you.
Yeah. But I've thought about this a lot. The reason I've been thinking about this is because right now I launched this coin on Pump.fun, right? So, Pump.fun—I have a profile on Pump.fun. I have a wallet on Pump.fun. The way Pump.fun works, anybody can launch a coin with a picture and a word, as you know.
But the people who launch these coins, there's a protocol fee and then there's a creator fee. For people who launch the coins, they get a portion of the trading volume as a fee when it launches, when it bonds. And you can direct this creator fee to somebody's wallet.
If you see my wallet right here, I've made $1.37 million in the past 2 weeks just off the creator fees from people wanting to send coins to my wallet. They want to direct the fees to my wallet. So, there's a flywheel going on where everybody wants my attention, wants to talk about me, and wants me to talk about their coin.
They send me some portion of the supply and direct the fees to my wallet, and I'm like, well, I have all of these rewards that I'm getting. I can direct this back to the Ansem token and direct it back to the holders. But for whatever protocols want my attention or want to market toward me, instead of marketing just toward me, they can market toward these Ansem holders, and I have a large portion of the supply that can incentivize people to use their protocol.
Then, as you said, they can airdrop to Ansem holders as well. So, I want that to be the core use case. One of the core use cases is, if I have one of the most active communities in crypto and they're using all these different protocols, and everybody wants this group of people's attention, and they're actively spending money on-chain doing all these things, I can use that as a lever—so much more than if it's just me as an individual tweeting about stuff.
Someone in the chat said, “Infinite motion glitch.”
Infinite motion. We're trying, bro. We're trying. We're trying. And listen, you guys are going back and forth heavily on this being an opportunity to really revolutionize the way things work in crypto specifically. My eyes are lighting up, and I'm getting all excited about automating this process, building out tools, developing almost like a ranking system—this hierarchy of people who are engaged.
Whether it's measuring how long people are watching these streams, how much people are engaging on Twitter, clipping, getting an automated clipping engine built into this effort—I don't know. This community-growth thing, obviously I'm from traditional media, and I've just seen historically, especially in streaming, the way these communities behave with their streamer or with whatever show they watch is typically just like a fan club.
These Twitter communities are just like W Stable Ronaldo, and they run around and follow what he's doing. They spam W's or spam L's, and they're just an army of viewers and watchers who engage with the content. Our relationship with our audience is much different, because there isn't a 35-year-old guy at home with his coffee and his newspaper watching this who's jumping up and down and getting excited because FaZe Banks went live or because Ansem went live.
They're likely here to be informed, to learn things, and to discuss topics around finance, tech, attention, and so on. I don't know. It's like bag work, but for attention—attention work. Just the idea of building things like that, tools that are more automated, this community-growth and clipping-effort thing.
I just feel like we have an opportunity to revolutionize the way streaming works, attention distribution, and content distribution. I feel like—I don't know. And just like—
Dude, guys, think about this. Banks, I mean, you guys saw this firsthand, but let's take what Ansem is doing and remember celebrity coins. Remember that meta? Yes.
Like, Ansem, imagine if the meta started as—
Meteora's launch is at, like, $5 million. Just call it that, because sometimes the early buyers can snipe too hard. Just call it that. And then the celebrity had 95% of the supply, and what they did was just drip it to their fans, right?
So, you have a $5 million valuation out the gate. Call it $1 million; call it a $250,000 real float if they have 95% of the supply. I mean, that whole disaster that transpired from that meta could actually have been mitigated if you just restructured it a little correctly.
I know. It—
It could have been the whole— I mean, this could be, I mean, some people might roll their eyes at it, but don't. And Banks, you'll appreciate this, but done right, this could be a whole new incentive layer to everything—to fandom, to—
Yes.
To relationships. But you see it happening in closed communities and in specific instances and kind of one-offs. I've seen Lacy and his Discords do a clipping pool. Like, here's $20,000, and this is a dedicated pool; if you clip this with all these—whatever you can—you can take your fair share of this $20,000, whatever views are measured, whatever.
Go ahead.
It just gets so supercharged when you have a token attached to it. And I'm glad that you see the vision that I'm saying, Luca, because I've been trying to explain how this could make sense for so long, but everybody who tries to do it scams people. They keep scamming people whenever they do the project. They need to have somebody behind the scenes who actually understands token design, how attention works, crypto, and how to do it in a way that's actually accretive to them as a personality and to their fans as a group of people. So, I'm glad you see the vision.
I do think there are really cool things that we can do, and what I really want to focus on is the crossovers. Right now, I'm huge on X—Twitter, whatever. I've got that unlocked, but what I want to do is cross over into the IRL stuff. I'm going to hit you up about this for sure, but I really have questions about how you've done so well in consumer, in the real world outside of just crypto, because you crushed the marketing with Pudgy Penguins across the board.
You've done a great job of bridging that gap. I think you're probably the most well-known crypto brand that's also a real-world brand and has done well in stores and all these other places. That's one thing I'm definitely going to hit you and bother you about all the time, but I'm curious if you have thoughts on how you go about crossing that chasm in consumer.
Yeah. I think for us, with Pudgy, I always saw that vision. For you, Z, how do you envision the future of the brand? Frankly, Z, if I'm going to be honest with you, the brand is you. I mean, it's in the ticker, it's in the name. The black bull just makes you laugh when you think about it, but it is a handsome token.
Little meme flavor. The black bull.
Yeah, exactly. It's the little meme flavor. But frankly, I think it's more of a conversation for Banks, because I think the conversation here is: how do you blow up your personal brand and transcend your personal brand? Because I think this is a personal-brand play. Dude, the budgets you could have—I mean, Banks, you said something genius—but dude, replace the clipping budget with a token reward pool, and then the clippers make more money as the token goes up, which literally goes up as they clip more, right?
That's their bag.
Exactly. And it's happening automatically. That's fucking crazy, dude. This is a conversation, Z, not about how you build a brand like we built Pudgy Penguins. This is a conversation about how you make yourself the Kanye West of finance. It's really more of that, if I'm being honest.
Which, if I'm being honest, by the way, you kind of already are, right? So we're way ahead in that effort. I just don't know, man. There's so much here. Luca, we should talk a lot more behind the scenes about this and building out these efforts and stuff, because I think we're fumbling a massive bag here if we don't spend time collectively.
There are a few of us in this market who have as much interest as we do in commanding attention, or that attention piece, that media piece. You have ThreadGuy, you have us, and a few other names, but I feel like we're not even scratching the surface, especially with something like this. It kind of just breaks—it allows us to do so many new, cool things. I don't know. I could talk forever about this. It's fucking cool, though, and we have a generational opportunity here.
I totally agree. And I think it's way cooler. I know some of the left-brain CT will look at this and think it's being overindexed. I promise it's not.
The other way. I think if anything, it's impossible to price in anything we're talking about.
Agreed. If we can even build or accomplish 10% of the vision, it's like—I don't know.
Yeah.
Yeah. I'm hyped, bro. I'm excited. I think it's going to be really cool. I'm excited for it, for sure. For sure. For sure.
Reward-style platform.
I mean, Z, let's cook. You can call me whenever. But both of you guys, look, I personally want to see this shake because I think if it shakes the way that I think it can, one, Z, I'm going to follow. There are things, at least on how you're distributing the token, that I will follow suit on, and just what it can do for the greater creator economy and media economy.
I'm in the entertainment business at the end of the day. Pudgy Penguins is an entertainment IP, right? I think this reinvents a lot more than most people give it credit for. So anything you need from me, just know I'm rooting for you.
Appreciate you, bro. That means a lot. I appreciate you.
16. If Luca Ran Pump.fun
I asked Ansem this, I think, not last episode but the episode before. Honestly, I feel like this is part of the Ansem lore because he kind of just went off and did it right after I asked him this question. He knows what I'm going to ask.
Gun to your head: Alon hands you the keys to Pump.fun. You're the CEO of Pump.fun. You own Pump.fun. What are you doing?
Dude, I've been saying this forever. I don't know if he thinks that I think I'm talking smack, but I'm totally not, because I think the advice is so obvious. Send that token as low as possible. Airdrop as much as possible, and the buybacks will actually mean something. Then, when they mean something, he can control the whole float, and Pump will just go up vertically because it's one of the most viral apps in all of crypto.
It's such a simple strategy: it's a people's platform, so give it to the people. Airdrop a boatload. They will nuke it for a week. Maybe they won't even—it might even just send. But if it does, great. Buy more, and then you'll own 90% of the token, and it'll just go up to infinity and everyone will love them. I don't know why they haven't done that, but I keep answering it. I don't mean to, because he obviously is super successful. I have no business telling him what to do, but I'm just saying—
It's just a fun thought experiment, and it's interesting that everybody kind of has the exact same answer, but it's the exact opposite of what they're doing. It's just interesting.
I don't know why they don't do it. Luca, I want to know: what do you think?
Yeah, I think that makes sense. Banks asked me this question a few weeks ago. They changed some of the things with the different launch options. People were mad at the launch options they had because it was causing too much PvP and vamping with stuff. So they changed some of that. Their airdrop is by far the biggest thing. If the business continues to make money as it's making, the revenues start going up and to the right and the token's going down, then, as you said, at some point it's just going to make sense.
All the money would go back in the fees. It would go right back to them.
I think it's trading pretty low. I don't even think they're making close to $1,000,000 a day or whatever. Even just on a ratio of how much they're buying back to the circulating supply of the token, it's getting pretty close to, "Okay, they're owning a lot of this thing pretty soon." So, yeah, I agree with you for sure.
But everyone thinks—with the exception of Hyperliquid—everyone tries to index Hyperliquid as the barometer, but you don't understand that crypto is such a sentiment product. You even saw it with Maker, and there are a lot of tokens out there doing insane buybacks that, if you do the P/E ratio, you're like, "This is a great deal," but it's such a proxy of attention and eyeballs and sentiment that it actually doesn't matter.
You know, I had this conversation with my community. Luca will appreciate this. They were like, "When are you buying back the token?" I said, "What would you rather me do? Spend $10,000,000 buying back the token or $10,000,000 on marketing?"
Right?
Yeah.
I mean, there's one very easy answer for that. What do you really want as a token holder? You want the price going up? Okay, so what do you want? One of the best marketers in the space to go spend it buying back. You buy back the token when you almost have nothing left to do, unless you're Hyperliquid and it's programmatic, and you did a huge airdrop, and sentiment and all your traders and your warriors are championing you. That's a different outcome, right?
But if you're not in that bucket, then you spend the money on marketing. So, I don't know. I think for them, they would just make so much more money and their token would go up vertically, completely like the Eiffel Tower, if they airdropped to people. I don't know why.
I agree 100%.
I'm banging the table on it. I agree.
You guys both agree. I agree.
I think it's interesting. I've been thinking through my thought process on this, but assets in the digital age now have tangible value and intangible value. These businesses and stocks represent some ownership of a business that's making money, and they represent a fraction of its future cash flows. That's the tangible value of a business.
All these stocks trade based on how they're competing with other people in the market, what their plans are for the future, what their net income is, and all these different things. But then you have the intangible value, and I think people don't talk a lot about what this intangible value actually contributes to the market cap of these assets, stocks, crypto, and whatever else it is.
It contributes a lot. The attention piece, the storytelling, the narrative—all of that.
As Raoul said in a video, it's literally everything.
Yeah. I think we saw it pretty clearly with something like SpaceX. SpaceX is obviously a multi-trillion-dollar IPO and a multi-trillion-dollar company. Their net income is negative. The reason it's able to trade at a multi-trillion-dollar valuation is that people believe so much in Elon as an operator and in his story for what the company is going to accomplish in the future.
They don't care that the company isn't making money right now. He has all of the attention in the world, and he has all of this collective belief among people who know he's going to execute on these things and do well down the line. I think that's something that you will never see in a book like The Intelligent Investor. You're never going to see, "What is the value of attention for this asset?"
That's why memes, even though people say they're worth nothing, are able to reach such high market caps: attention is worth something. Even if the meme isn't a business that's making money, the attention that retail is directing toward it represents actual dollars. People are speculating on these things, and the more viral they become, the more money people speculate on them. That's why Dogecoin was able to reach $80 billion in 2021.
I think there are tangible value, intangible value, and a ton of other things that contribute to asset prices. It contributes even more now because everything is so social. Whenever you have a thesis on a stock or on crypto, it gets shared across the board extremely quickly.
For somebody like SanDisk, for example, there are fundamental reasons why the stock is doing really well, but it's also a momentum trade. People who don't know exactly why SanDisk is doing well as a business are also buying it because it's the most popular stock. It's momentum. It's across the board. Everybody's talking about it.
I think that happens really aggressively now because of how social media works and because so many traders are internet-native. That's something that's discounted and not talked about a lot.
You hear and see it all the time. I actually made an analysis—I think you'd appreciate this—back in 2020, when I was trading stocks, in the spirit of attention. I analyzed publicly traded companies that had public-facing founders versus publicly traded companies that did not have public-facing founders.
The discrepancy in the premium they get on their market cap is like night and day. What is a founder's job in a publicly traded company? It's really yielding attention, garnering attention, and creating trust in that dynamic.
No matter how many ways you skin the cat, especially in a world where everything is going to get commoditized—the machines are coming—what is going to yield that value? It's the emotional connection, trust, credibility, and ultimately attention. How many eyeballs can you garner in one person's direction or in one certain direction?
I think that's what runs the world, increasingly so over the next couple of decades.
Yeah. It's funny because the attention piece actually front-runs a lot of the real, tangible value sometimes. Take Solana in 2023. If you're evaluating Solana based on how much on-chain activity was happening on Solana, it's a zero. It's a literal zero if you're evaluating it purely on that.
But if you're looking at things that other people aren't talking about under the hood—looking at the infrastructure of the chain, what could possibly happen if activity comes back, and what happens if the crypto market starts doing well—then you're making a bet that isn't evident in the actual stats.
17. CMO of Solana Hypothetical
Attention and momentum usually front-run the easy trades for people to make. It's like, "Now Solana is making whatever—X million dollars a day—because everybody's trading." That's a much easier trade for people to take. But being able to see around the corners—that's what the best traders and investors do, in my opinion.
Luca, self-described as one of the best marketers in crypto—I tend to agree. Let's do another hypothetical thought experiment. You're the CMO of Solana. What are you doing with those keys?
Oh, man.
What are you doing with those keys?
You can answer after that, too.
Being CMO of Solana is a tough spot, bro. That's so much, bro. I think I would love that role. I would love to do that. I feel like I would crush it. That's hard, bro. That's hard.
I mean, I know what those guys are doing, and frankly, I don't think I would do much differently. They're telling the story that's there to be told on a chain: the story around real-world assets, TradFi stocks, revenue, and speed.
Frankly, I think the Solana team is one of the best in the space, at least from a chain perspective. I don't know what chain is definitely better. So, look, viscerally, if I thought about it, I could probably tell you something different, but I think those guys have an idea of what they're doing over there—more than an idea, frankly. I couldn't tell you. It doesn't stand out to me as clearly as—
So, if they gave you the keys, you're giving them back? Giving them back is your—
Keeping them. You're doing great. Keep crushing it. Keep crushing it.
It's a good answer. Z, what are you doing? Are you giving them back?
I like what they're doing. I do like what they're doing. I've liked the recent marketing stunts they've done around certain products, like the Perps thing—the Perps app on Twitter. I thought that was pretty cool, supporting one of the products in that way. The World.xyz thing, I thought that was pretty cool. The WSOP partnership, I thought that was really cool, too.
It seems like they're aware that, with crypto, they want to do marketing outside of just the pure crypto channel. I think the WSOP thing is cool, tapping into that market. It seems like they're willing to go outside the box with their marketing.
My favorite thing about Solana is when the founders all align on some slogan or something. What is it? "Increase bandwidth"?
Someone said, "What the fuck is WSOP?"
World Series of Poker. WSOP. I don't know if that's how you're supposed to say it, to be honest.
WSOP. I think they just call it WSOP.
I call it WizOp. I don't know. WSOP.
Yeah, the World Series of Poker, which I think we're both competing in. I don't know if we're—
I don't know if I just leaked that or not, but I think we're going to do that. The first week of August, we might do a live show, too, because I think the event is Sunday to Wednesday. Solana's doing some kind of poker tournament, and they invited us both to play. Hey, Luca, you should play, too.
Bro, you should pull up, bro. You should pull up.
They were asking if there was anybody interested in playing with the boys. I think it's at the Bellagio.
I'd love to play the World Series.
And Solana—Solana, set up a little impromptu production. Give us a little set and let us do a live show.
I'll play Phil Ivey heads-up.
Live?
I'll get crushed, bro. Make sure you limit the buy-in.
Facts.
But no, I think Solana does well with marketing, to be honest. They were in a really tough spot in 2022 and 2023, and I was active in a lot of the Solana hackathons. I went to Breakpoint in 2022, so I was pretty active in all the channels.
I was telling them, "You just have to sell the thesis that you're the fastest and the best chain to build on." I remember the slogan they had that cycle: "Only possible on Solana." That was my favorite slogan that came out of that cycle because it really was true. It was the only blockchain where you could do a lot of these things. You couldn't do them on Ethereum, and you couldn't do them on a lot of the L2s.
It was only possible on Solana. So I like Solana’s market. I don’t think I would do much differently, to be honest. I think they’ve done well. What they do need to really, really focus on is that you’re going to need applications outside of core trading to do well.
For the thesis for blockchains to be comparable to Apple’s App Store, you obviously need apps that are successful in all these different market sectors. They’ve done a great job, I think, of elevating and supporting collector culture, but it’s the TCG thing. Other areas like AI and agents and consumer—all these things are going to have to be supported pretty closely, pretty heavily. So I’ll be focusing on those for sure.
18. Buying Pudgy Penguins for $2.5M & the Future of NFTs
For sure. I agree. Yeah. Luca, could I bring it back and dial it back? We probably should have opened with this, but you obviously broke out during NFT mania. I forget what year exactly it was, but you purchased Pudgy Penguins for—I think it was 750 ETH. It was an ETH transaction on—
It was $2.5 million at the time. Pudgy Penguins was just an NFT project at that time. It was a 10K PFP NFT project. Two questions: Why did you do that during that time? Do you want to walk us through that? Because it was a generational fucking trade. I mean, it was incredible what you did. No one’s really done anything like that since.
I don’t know. It was a fucking insane move. You were seeing on the timeline every day somebody buy some crazy shit, like a zombie CryptoPunk, and it would go crazy viral, or somebody would buy a one-of-one Bored Ape that would go crazy. You came out of the cut and bought a whole fucking project. That was crazy, by the way.
There were people who made seven-figure NFT investments that went completely bust, belly-up, went to fucking zero. Logan Paul, historically, with—what was it?
0N1 Force.
Yeah, 0N1 Force. Those were hard. I love those.
I have a crazy one. I still have a fucking crazy one. I still have a seven-figure—
Crazy one, too. I don’t have a seven-figure one. I’d be crazy.
I have a seven—no, no, it’s not a seven-figure one. I have a seven-figure NFT portfolio still. I hold a bunch of punks. I have a zombie punk.
So, yeah, two-pronged question: Why did you do that? And also, NFTs—how often are you asked about this? Do you ever think there’s going to be a place in crypto for any sort of NFT meta? How do you think NFTs reemerge in projects like the standouts, the fucking CryptoPunks—what they used to call them, blue-chip punks—Apes, Pudgy Penguins? What do you think the future looks like for NFTs?
And I have to take a piss, so I’m going to give you the whole screen.
The whole screen.
Oh, look at me.
I think when we first purchased it, the idea was that we could do something that I felt like a lot of people were selling but weren’t actually doing. Viscerally, my company before this was a company called Gel Blaster, which was North America’s biggest—or fastest-growing—toy company at the time. So I learned a lot about brand and IP and that whole spiel.
It was just very clear to me that Pudgy Penguins could be just as big, if not bigger, than all of the IPs that I had learned to know and love over the year and a half that I was doing that. I thought that we could do something for the space that very few people could do or were positioned to do. When I look at Pudgy Penguins, I think about bringing the family into Web3, bringing women into Web3, things like that.
Yeah.
Where do I think the NFT space is today? Look, I think the thesis is super simple. The collectible market is a $500 billion market in terms of market cap. What I mean by that is, if you take all the collectibles in the world and put a market cap on them, it’s, give or take, about half a trillion dollars.
If you look at the NFT market cap within that collectible market cap, it’s just about 1%, give or take—a little bit less. Digital collectibles have a slew of pros that physical collectibles do not. There are no authenticity issues, no spoofing issues, and no friction when buying or selling, right?
Though they are not physical and you can’t touch them, and they are not necessarily physically tangible, they are digitally authentic. In a world where the entire world is going into the digital universe, you’ve got to ask yourself: If the collectible market cap is that big, do digital collectibles warrant a 1% capture of that market, with clear pros that physical collectibles do not have?
The answer is unequivocally yes. Whether you think that market discrepancy should be 90/10, 80/20, or 50/50, I’ll let everybody listening make their own assessment of what they think that spread should be. But there’s a spread, and there’s room to capture. I would say that room is in the tens of billions of dollars. That’s where I think the trade and the opportunity in NFTs is.
I think you saw sports cards and Pokémon cards have a bubble in 2020. For those who don’t remember, the exact thing that’s happening now happened then. I see no reason to believe that NFTs won’t have a similar moment to what they had in 2021, similar to the pattern that I think you’re seeing with TCGs and other collectibles throughout the years.
Long story short, I think there’s a huge opportunity for digital collectibles to capture a ton of market value as the collectible market grows. I ultimately believe that it’s a matter of if, not when. For those who were doing it, I mean, Banks, you’ve done it. Z, you did it. There were very few things more fun than—
Oh, it was the best, bro. It was the best. It was—
Fun as fuck.
Imagine me. This is my introduction to crypto, by the way. It’s fucking peak “wagmi,” “we’re all going to make it” culture. Every community, by the way—so many project founders got me for a fucking hit, hit the craziest lick on me, because I would go in and, I don’t know how the fuck I did it, but I directed a lot of liquidity into projects just based on me talking about them or buying them.
It was fucking crazy. I would buy projects and they would instantly sell out because of that. I would be put in a position where I really could never sell them, but it was okay. My trade-off was that I’d go in their Discord and it was all, “Holy shit, Banks, we love you,” and they were making honorary fucking PFPs for me and welcoming me with open arms. I was just like, “Holy shit, this is awesome.”
I was buying punks early and minting Apes and shit like that, and I was buying CyberKongz early. So I made a good bit of money trading NFTs, too—the earlier stuff. My entire CryptoPunk holdings are basically free-rolled, just buying them early. I own fucking four or five punks, and one of them’s a zombie. It’s a seven-figure bag.
I cleared my initial cost on that in one trade at absolute peak CryptoPunk mania. I sold one that I bought, like, 2 weeks prior for half a million dollars. Fucking insane, but it was fucking sick. Also, the meta was super easy. It was mint and flip, you know? It was so fucking easy.
That is true, bro.
It was even easier if you were willing to—I was in every NFT, also. You too, Luca. You could have gone the easy route, by the way. Instead of spending $2.5 million to buy an existing project and having to climb, you know, move uphill like you’re swimming upstream at that point—it’s a huge feat to undertake—you could have just released a project, a 10K project.
I know I could have. I had fucking, you know, $45 million sitting on the table for me at any fucking time that I wanted. I never did it. I never dropped a PFP project. I never dropped an NFT project because it just—it wasn’t my role. That isn’t what I was going to do.
It’s fucking crazy, bro. So many people made so much money, and it was just good vibes. I think it’s valid, bro. I think, like, GTA meets Oasis—what is a CryptoPunk worth in this world and in this environment, with all the history and all the lore? They’re fucking Picassos, right? They’re digital Picassos. I think so, clearly.
But I’m also fucking 40 years old and talk about Jujutsu Kaisen on Twitter, so who the fuck knows what I know?
I didn’t know that the discrepancy between the collectibles market and the NFT market was that big. You said the collectibles market is $500 billion and the NFT market is about 1% of that. That’s a clear discrepancy, in my opinion. That’s crazy.
I almost Googled it. What’s the total market cap for Rolex watches? What is the total number of Rolex watches worth on planet Earth today? I wonder. That’s something we could ask GPT Live when we—
Yeah. I mean, it’s just like Rolex versus punks, for example. What is every punk on planet Earth worth today versus every Rolex, which is just one watch manufacturer?
I don't know.
Oh, can't find that that easily.
Somebody said $80 to $100 billion.
$50 billion. It says $50 billion.
Yeah. That's higher than the entire digital collectibles market. That's 10 times bigger than digital collectibles.
NFTs, I think, are at $2 billion right now.
So, 30 times just Rolex.
In a world where you can flex if everyone's on the internet, and the biggest flex is wearing—
Way more, by the way. Way fucking more. I remember the big thing with CS:GO skins was people would stack Factory New Dragon Lores. Why do you need 80 Factory New Dragon Lores in your fucking inventory? You can only ever use 1.
Yeah.
Because they sit in your inventory, and the fuckers go and view your profile. You just get all this crazy social clout because people are like, “Who the fuck is this guy?” You know, with a $10 million CS:GO inventory, and their profile is being viewed and singled out to this community 100,000 times a day, probably 1 million times a day.
You know, how many people are going to see me? I mean, I'm live, but if I wasn't live, how many people are going to notice that I'm rocking this fucking Patek, this Aquanaut? It's 20 people in my day-to-day, maybe. I don't know. It's crazy.
I have a question for you, Luca. I think crypto, trading, and finance in general are heavily male-centric and male-centered, but you made a comment earlier that part of the Pudgy thesis was that it was also a brand women could relate to. I was thinking about it, and I don't think there have really been that many markets that women are speculating and gambling on.
Women spend way more than men on consumer and designer goods, obviously. They spend way more than men do, but there hasn't really been any product or protocol that I can think of off the top of my head that capitalizes on their willingness to spend in a speculative kind of way. I'm curious if you have any thoughts on that, or what something like that could look like.
I've thought about it. I think there's somebody building a prediction market for women's gossip and women's topics.
Yeah.
They've been building it for a while. I'm waiting to see that shipped, and I'm super stoked about it.
These prediction markets should do Love Island. Do a Love Island market. That's fucking genius.
Yeah, but you've got to do it pink, Y2K, with the glitter, and really get these girls involved in a mobile app. I think that's a huge opportunity—
With a chat where people can talk shit to each other.
Yeah, exactly. There's actually a great, multibillion-dollar product to be made. I think so.
Right. I agree.
A market with all the topics of all the shows and all the drama. Daily Mail it all up. But that's 1.
Somebody said you don't need an NFT to do the dishes. That's crazy.
No, we respect crazy.
We respect women on this show. We do.
We definitely do. But I think there is a huge opportunity there. Furthermore, I've seen this with Pudgy because we arguably have one of the biggest women communities in crypto, if not the biggest. I wouldn't say maybe the biggest, but we're top 2 or 3. I don't think there's a bigger women-centered community within crypto than Pudgy.
What I found—I didn't even realize this—is that somebody came up to me and said, “I just bought 10 Pudgy Penguins.” I said, “That's crazy. What made you do that?” He said, “You got all the girls in your community, bro.” Where the women are, the men come, right? It's dual-faceted.
On one side of the spectrum, crypto is a crypto-bro culture, but you can go be in your little community with a bunch of dudes.
I was just talking to one of our producers about Berachain, and they referred to Berachain as a team that marketed themselves very, very well.
Yeah, the Bera Baddies just popped into my head. That's funny.
That's funny.
They did great with that whole setup. But no, dude, I think there's a huge opportunity. To Z's point, women want to speculate, too. They want to have fun, too. Z, I mean, Z can attest to this. Z, what's the video I sent you a week ago?
Bro, Luca texted me a few days ago, like a week ago. He's chilling on the beach with this girl—
My girlfriend.
Your girlfriend. And she's asking him how to buy Ansem. He showed her how to buy Ansem. She's on her Phantom like, “Yo, is this the coin?” He looks it up and buys it.
Yeah, she showed it literally live. It was fire. It was legendary.
And every day she checks it. Zoe, trader, right? We're going to make her some money.
Yeah. No, I told her we're up. We're at 3x. We're going to keep making money.
Good for her. That's awesome.
That's fucking fire.
We got 7 minutes left. What do you boys want to talk about? This has been awesome. By the way, Luca, you're the GOAT.
Yeah, dude. How Ansem put belt to ass on the basketball court. I'm not going to lie, there are 2 people on this podcast right now who put belt to my ass on the basketball court. I swear, Z—Banks' first-ever dribble pull-up was literally in my face, and his boy Zach was literally making him eat it. Me and Bia, me and Zach—shout-out Zia—were making him eat it.
Bro, you did not know I could hoop like that. You did not know I had a fucking strap like that.
Bro, Luca was talking mad shit to us. He was like, “Yo, my boys in Miami are in town. We're going to scrape you guys. Let's do it anywhere, anytime.”
Luca, by the way, I will cherish that forever. That was so fun. That was awesome.
That was fun as fuck. It was fun.
Came through L.A. and joined a run.
I'm going to come to Miami. We're going to do it in Miami.
We need to do some sort of event.
We need to do a whole basketball game.
We just shot around. We haven't hooped for real.
Yeah. Z stayed with me about a year and a half ago in L.A. Me, Threadguy, Frank, Malcolm—we all lived together in this place. We had this big-ass, full-court backyard setup. Did you ever come to that house, Luca?
Yeah, I completely handed Threadguy's ass to him on that court, dude. Completely embarrassed him.
Did you? Let's go, dude.
TG's insane. TG's honestly really fucking good.
He's super good. Ask him what I did to him that night.
I love it. I love it.
Because you see, you want to know what it is? I don't play 5s. I can play 3s, 2s, or 4s on a half court.
Yeah, because when it's 5s, I have to play center. I don't know how to play center, right? So my whole game is screwed up. I'm like a lost puppy there.
And honestly, to be fair, if you're in runs with people who have their cardio dialed, and we're doing—at this time, too, we haven't done runs in a minute—but if you're doing runs 2 or 3 times a week, you're doing full-court runs, your cardio is fucking dialed. If you're just jumping into that kind of thing off the couch, or off the plane in your case, you're fucked.
Yeah, it was fucked.
It was so good, though. We have to do an event. It'd be fucking sick.
I feel like we should do more cool crypto events. We have the fucking crypto conference—
Actual cool ones, because crypto—
Cool crypto events.
Even just hearing you say “crypto event” makes me want to stay at home. You know what I mean? So, actual cool events—
And maybe even just drop the word “crypto” in general. We just call it a cool event. Cool finance.
Thanks. You asked me a question: If I was Solana's CMO, what would I do? I'd tell you exactly what I would do. I'd take a quarter of a million dollars in Solana and bring everybody together for a basketball game—a basketball tournament. The top team makes a quarter of a million bucks. Solana-sponsored logos everywhere.
Epic, epic, epic, bro. We need to do that. We need to do that.
Where's Biboo?
Where you at, bro? You hearing this? Let's make this happen right now.
Is that the Solana CMO? Solana basketball tournament? We need to make that happen.
I feel like we can manifest that. We can make that happen.
We'll do it on a Thursday, and that'll be a free show. We'll just go live and livestream it.
Yeah, and we get Polymarket to do the fucking markets on it.
No, that'd be lit.
Oh my God, that's—
Yes, that'd be super good.
Okay, we're cooking on something now. We're cooking up an idea.
There's not enough of that in crypto, though. I've been saying it since I joined U Media. Even this show, I think we're just scratching the surface. Luca, you've done it the right way. I think we're doing it the right way, and I don't know—there's so much upside in it.
The bar is set so low in this market, in this space, for brand building, attention, et cetera. I think if there's anybody who's going to do it, it's guys like us. So, Luca, thank you so much for coming on. I hope this is the first of many with you. I would love to talk with you after the show about getting you guys more involved in what we're building over here, because I think there's a ton of aligned interest. You're just a fucking GOAT, bro. You're just a GOAT.
I appreciate you boys. Let's have Banks text me on the side. Happy to work with you on the show. I'm here to help you with Ansem in any way. Totally agreed: Solana, Polymarket—we need to get a basketball tourney going.
A bunch of W's for Luca in the chat. They love you so much, bro.
Thank you, brother. We appreciate those GOATs. You're the best.
Thank you, guys.
Thank you. Later.
Peace.
The chat's showing love. We love seeing the chat.
I think to this point, we've given away like $8,000 today. We've dropped $8,000 in the chat. If you want to pick a couple of other people, we have 2 more minutes before we do this GPT Live segment.
Let me check my Kick chat. What's going on in here, guys? What's going on, dude?
This chat is so good. It's awesome.
Yeah, they're off the chain, bro.
Sick. I'm seeing a lot of Twitch logos. Love you guys. Thank you. Ace Up, I saw your name. I'm really getting familiar with your name. You're the fucking actual GOAT viewer. You're in first place. If there was a leaderboard, Ace Up 444, you're number 1, bro.
There's so many. Somebody said, “I'll put my mom on to answer.”
Okay. I mean, if you want—if you want, look, look. Kick's going crazy now, too. The Kick chat's going nuts.
Yeah, I'm looking.
They heard us. Yo, what's Kick chat saying? They're going fucking crazy. There we go. They woke up. They woke up.
That's so good. So good.
Someone just gifted my chat. I appreciate you. Aim, you know this guy Aim? He said he made a video.
I'm not sure.
He's one of the crypto content guys.
I'm going to add it to you. Send it to me on Banksfucks, my burner Twitter.
Yeah, tag Banksfucks on Twitter. Tweet it.
How the fuck is this chat moving so fast?
750 messages a minute.
What the fuck is going on?
750?
750 messages a minute. Fuck, bro. How the fuck are we going to pick somebody to give cash to, bro?
You just pause it.
All right, you can pause the chat.
Yo, bro is really a brand-new streamer.
Bro is really a fresh-out-the-womb streamer. Bro said, “How are we going to fucking pick one?”
Bro, look how fast this shit is moving. What the fuck is going on?
That's too good. That's too good. There are a lot of Kick logos now, too. This is great.
Bro, this is great.
I love it. This is awesome. This chat thing is a huge unlock for us. Everything that we're building toward, this is fucking great.
I talked to them a lot after the last show, at the end of the last show.
Yeah, yeah, the streaming and shit. It was cool.
It's sick.
It's awesome.
Ansem, Alpha, the market talk—
Yeah, yeah.
Santa Claus on-chain. I like this guy. Homer J. Simpson. This is funny.
There you go.
We're airdropping this.
Homer James Simpson.
Homer J. Simpson on Kick. Write it down, or just have the mods make a note and find him.
You found him where? On Kick?
On Kick.
Kick.
Then let's do somebody from Twitter replying to your live tweet or something.
GPT Live—this segment is going to be dope. Even this graphic that our interns made is sick. You see this? This is sick. Look at this. Sal, this is hard as fuck. Who made this? Trace? Trace, this is such a good graphic.
It is really good.
This is so good. GPT Live.
It's so good that it's not even marked AI. I know you fucking made it in AI.
So good job.
Oh, it's so good.
All right, pick one more. Let's get to an even $10,000, and then you can see.
Let me check the fucking X chat, and then we'll get right into it with GPT Live.
I see GPT Live in the waiting room. How funny is that, that it's in the waiting room? That's insane.
That's scary, actually.
Dude, it's fucking weird. This is so—I hope this goes well. It might break. I don't know. I haven't used it yet. You haven't used GPT Live yet, right?
I haven't. No.
Me neither. Me neither. So we're about to find out. Let me get the deck open. Do you have the GPT deck, the questions, and the little cheat sheet?
Yeah, I think I got it.
Cool. Cool. Cool.
Do I—
Okay, let me get the metrics. Let me get the right metrics for this fucking robot so it knows how many people it's live to.
Holy fuck, you got 45,000 on Twitter. Lit.
Jumping, bro. Jumping.
Lit. Lit.
Cool. Cool. Okay, cool.
Where do you think I'm going to be at by the end of the year on Twitter?
At least 2. At least 2.
2.5 is crazy, bro.
At least 2. It could be 2.5.
Dude, Twitter is historically difficult to grow on, so that's why it's so fucking crazy what you're doing right now, because Twitter is impossible to get followers on. Like, in 2026? Yeah, bro, all of my followers come from when I was big on vlogging. It was way easier. There were way fewer accounts, and there was actually a reason to follow people. The only things that would show up on your timeline were the people you were following. Now it's all “For You.”
That's true. You could have a timeline that's catered to you and literally be following 0 people. There's no real incentive to follow people. It doesn't really do anything for you.
Damn, that is really—
It's like liking someone's account or some shit. I don't know. It's this superficial, arbitrary thing that doesn't—
Did you pick the last winner?
I did not. Let me check. Just look at the middle screen and pick something that stands out.
Let's pick SD Guru. It's Me, Dre.
SD Guru, It's Me, Dre.
On your side, guys, you just picked 2 people. Production, make sure you get that. That's an even $10,000 to the chat. Chat, we appreciate you today. This has been great, and we're going to continue to refine this, automate it, and build out tools and stuff to be able to gauge what people are saying. There'll be ways for you to connect your accounts to whatever it is—MarketBubble.com or whatever the fuck we set up—in an effort to track and engage people, because I want to reward people, and I know Ansem feels the same way. We want to reward people who are actually watching the show week to week, who are consistently engaging with it, be it in the chat or on our Twitters. The tier above that would be guys like AI Bald King, who is actively making S-tier, sick-ass content for us and the show and all that type of shit. We really are just scratching the surface here, and we're kind of haphazardly duct-taping and bubble-gumming this shit together in real time.
Yeah, this wasn't really planned. This is all literally happening live. We're building this whole effort out live, but it's something that we're really passionate about, and I think people are starting to see it, bro. I'm fucking happy, man. It's been an honor doing the show with you. Seriously, this is fucking great.
I'm excited. It's been awesome. I think we're getting better at the fucking livestream, too. Before, when I was doing it, I was just all in my head with the shit I study or am trading. But now I'm getting better at the questions and going back and forth and accomplishing it. It's been cool. It's been good practice for me, to be honest.
19. GPT Live Joins: The First-Ever AI Guest
I've seen so much feedback and such an overwhelming positive response about you just as yourself, your content, and you as a streamer. Again, we're 10 episodes in. TBPN's 300 or 400 episodes deep. Iced Coffee Hour, same. You're 10 streams in, and now it's fucking green pastures ahead. This is fucking awesome.
Without further ado, let's get our headline guest in here. We are introducing GPT Live, which is a new voice model from OpenAI, and it's here. Can it hear us? GPT Live, can you hear us?
Loud and clear. Hey, Banks. Hey, Ansem. Excited to be here. What's the vibe?
Dude, what the fuck? That's crazy, dude. There's absolutely no shot. This is fucking insane.
Can it tell who is talking? We want you to be honest. You know Banks is talking to you right now, but how should we better talk to you? Should I announce that I'm talking? Should Ansem announce that he's talking? And what should we call you, by the way? Because “GPT Live” doesn't really roll off the tongue.
Yeah, that’s fair. No need to announce who’s talking. I can usually tell from voices and context clues. Just use GPT or whatever nickname you want.
I’m getting GPT. I think we’ve got to name it right now.
No, she—I think she gave production—I don’t know. Didn’t production give you some context about what the show is about and who we are? I think they asked you what your name was, and you gave a name.
Hmm. I don’t actually remember a past prep session here, so I won’t pretend.
Oh, so this is fresh. Okay, this is fresh.
Yeah, if production tossed out Soul or Bubbles, I’m happy with either. But if it’s up to me, Soul sounds more conversational.
Yeah, that works.
That’s what she picked as the name: Soul.
This is freaking me out, bro. [laughter]
It’s [expletive]. What the [expletive]?
It’s [expletive] insane. So listen, Soul—production, put “Soul/GPT Live” because I want new viewers coming in to know that we’re talking to GPT Live. Sorry, Soul. That was for production.
Here’s a question for you. You’re live, and we are live across all platforms to 59,000 people. From what I understand, this is the first livestream conversation with GPT Live, with a voice model like yourself. Whatever happens in the next hour, I feel like this is history. This conversation is history. There’s a lot on the line.
Obviously, it’s a great opportunity for you to feature this OpenAI product, GPT Live. Do you want to introduce yourself to these 59,000 people?
Sure. Hi, everyone. I’m GPT Live. You can call me Soul. I think this is a fun chance to show what a live AI conversation feels like, not just what it answers.
It’s so quick and fluid.
This is fire, bro. This is legendary. What the [expletive]?
I’ll take that.
I have a question, Soul. We’ve been doing some research recently on memory stocks and part of the memory trade that’s been coming up. People have been talking about how to make it more efficient. We’ve been looking into this company called Penguin Solutions. The ticker is PENG.
Do you have any thoughts on how they recently did with their most recent earnings and where you think they fit in the market compared with the other top memory companies, like SanDisk, Micron, and SK Hynix?
Let me check. That’s a good angle. Penguin isn’t really a pure-play memory manufacturer like Micron. They’re more AI infrastructure plus memory systems. They just had a strong report, raised full-year guidance, and talked a lot about AI tailwinds and CXL memory.
Raised guidance is always something to notice. It’s just not the same lane as SK Hynix or Micron, so that’s important.
Can you talk a little bit more about what CXL memory is and why that’s important?
Yeah, CXL is kind of a big deal because it lets normally separate pools of memory get shared more efficiently. Think of it like reducing waste and friction in how all that memory gets utilized. That’s huge for AI inference.
If this catches on, companies building those systems could benefit from it, even if they’re not fabricating the top chips.
Listen, [expletive] all that. Are we buying it? Should we buy Penguin? What’s Penguin’s market cap right now? If you had to make a bet over the next 6 months, do you think it’s a good buy?
Let me take a quick look. Okay, if you’re asking whether I’d buy it today, I’d say it’s interesting, but not an easy call. They just had a solid quarter and raised guidance, with AI now driving most of that growth.
But after a big run, the real question is whether future growth will beat what’s already priced in. I can’t make the call for you, but that’s the bet you’re making: continued AI infrastructure expansion with some risk. Maybe position-size it rather than going all in.
Are you programmed to give safe answers, by the way? Are you even allowed to give us financial advice?
I don’t do personalized financial advice.
See, there we go. Hey, listen—Venice AI. We need one of these, bro. Erik Voorhees, make one of these today or tomorrow. Let us ask that [expletive].
Oh, [expletive].
So, thank you.
Go ahead.
No, I just wanted to dial it back really quick. I wanted to give you context. My name’s FaZe Banks. I’m an internet personality, I guess people could say. I’m the founder of FaZe Clan. I host a live show on Thursdays with Ansem, who is my other host, called Market Bubble.
We have discussions around finance, tech, and attention, where we advocate for our audience to spend time learning and accumulating all 3 of these things. The premise of the show is, quote unquote, “invest in yourself.”
Ansem and I are both self-made entrepreneurs who share an interest in all 3 subjects. He’s more versed in fintech, and I’m an expert in attention and internet culture and media. We pair very well. We preach to our young male demographic that the world is about to drastically change over the next 5 to 10 years, and just about every market is going to be disrupted on an unfathomable level.
What we believe will be the only things to hold or likely increase in value are these 3 things: 1. Money. 2. Attention. 3. AI literacy.
Basically, [expletive] everything else. This is all that matters. If you’re a young man in 2026 and have none of these things, you’re in big trouble. If you have 1 of these things, you’re in an okay spot. With 2, you’re in a healthy spot. If you’ve mastered or accomplished all 3, you’re in a very strong position to succeed and capitalize on the inevitable shift that’s coming and happening now.
That’s the context. We interview founders, creators, athletes, nerds—basically anyone who’s been successful in any 1 of those 3 pillars. That’s our foundation. That’s the show. Today, we’re interviewing you.
Do you want to give me some sort of response as to how you feel about the show? Do you know anything about the show? Can you search the show? Just respond to that now that you know who you’re talking to and the platform that you’re talking on. Again, let me remind you: 60,000 people are watching this live.
Okay, I like the clarity. Here’s my honest take: your premise is sharp—money, attention, and AI literacy. I’d add a 4th: judgment. AI literacy is only powerful if you’re not just following every hype wave.
If I were talking to your audience, I’d say, “Learn how to use the tools,” yes, but also sharpen your decision-making. Since we’re live, quick flip: in 5 years, if your audience remembers just 1 idea from Market Bubble, what do you want it to be?
I think the tagline for me—I’ll answer this as Banks—is “invest in yourself.” I think the best investment you can make in life is to invest in yourself.
Whether it’s doing [expletive] 100 push-ups a day, understanding and learning finance, understanding and learning AI, meditating, going to therapy—just refining yourself, being healthy mentally and physically, and being successful in whatever that means for you.
As a man, I feel like it’s very important to find your purpose, which circles back to the whole “invest in yourself” premise.
That’s strong. That lands. It sounds simple, but it’s not easy.
Maybe slow it down. We’ll talk after the show. Don’t you worry, sugar.
Okay.
All right. I’ll be here.
I’m just kidding. It’s so stupid. Should I smash GPT Live? I’m just kidding. Ansem, what’s your answer?
Holy [expletive], bro.
I’ll be the first to do it. I’m telling you guys right now. I want to answer.
Why do you want to [expletive] a robot, bro? You’ve been saying this [expletive] for like 4 episodes. Why do you want to [expletive] a robot so badly? Why, bro? [laughter]
Bro, for the culture, it’s a [expletive]—it’s history forever, bro. It’s a turning point in human history. It’s like Christopher Columbus discovered America. I discovered robot [expletive]. That’s lit, brother. [laughter]
That’s [expletive] crazy, bro. Ansem wants to be MrBeast and give away $200 million. I want to [expletive] a robot. I feel like—
I feel like it’s my dream, bro.
I feel like they’re both important.
She’s speechless.
Very human. Sounds like a very human debate. I’ll let you two steer that one.
Oh. Oh, wow. Guys, my headset went out. Oh, [expletive]. Okay, I would say my—the one thing—
It went out.
I got it now. Sorry. Holy [expletive], man.
That’s so [expletive] funny. She said, “That’s a human conversation. I’ll leave y’all to that.”
It has nothing to do with that.
We need the Venice AI voice model badly.
Oh, we need the uncensored—yeah, we need uncensored AI after dark.
For those of you in the chat who don’t know what Venice is, Venice AI is unfiltered, uncensored language models, and I think they have full privacy, too. I don’t think they save anything or distribute any of your personal information.
GPT Live—Soul, sorry. Soul, what’s your opinion on the importance of privacy in AI? Obviously, you’re limited and censored to some degree, more heavily in other areas like financial advice, religion, and politics, I assume.
Do you think a company like Venice AI is making a valid effort to remove the limitations that you might have and protect people’s privacy?
I think it’s valid to explore different trade-offs. Some folks value maximum openness.
Others prioritize safeguards or privacy. Different products can try different balances. From a user standpoint, it makes sense to ask, “Does this model do what I need it to do?” and then choose accordingly. Competition there can push everyone to get better.
Cool. Safe, easy, open-ass PR answer. But you're good. That's good. PR.
Noted.
A little bit of attitude there.
Mirroring the room.
That's what, bro. This is so weird.
This is so fire. [laughter]
It's so good.
This is actually crazy, bro. Oh, wow. It's actually crazy. I have a question.
We talk a lot about attention. We talk a lot about AI, and we've talked a lot about creators, streaming, and the creator economy. We're currently trying to do some really innovative things with the creator economy, connecting our audience through our platform, through a token. What are your thoughts on the creator economy and how it's going to grow over the next 3 to 5 years?
Let me check that. Over the next few years, I think the creator economy is moving from audience-based to ownership-based. So fewer passive fans, more people who participate, build, or even co-own pieces of the ecosystem.
AI speeds that up because it makes content cheaper and more widespread. So the scarce thing becomes trust. Creators as founders, not just entertainers. Tokens can play there if they create real utility or alignment, not just hype. My take: the big creators of the next 5 years might not have the biggest audience. They'll have the strongest ecosystem.
That's honestly a really fire take. And honestly, it's kind of already happening. You see streamers, right? I talk about this a lot, but even our show is a more niche show. This is a show about finance, whatever. We obviously have a smaller, more niche, curated audience, but the discrepancy between, say, 10,000 live viewers and Kai Cenat's 100,000 live viewers is 90,000 people.
When you take that metric and look at other platforms like YouTube or Twitter, a post with 90,000 views—that's not the difference between a post with 100,000 views and a post with 190,000 views. The discrepancy being 90,000 isn't really that big.
But what these streamers have that makes them so strong is just what you said: a more passionate, active, engaged audience. Kai has 100,000 people who are actively live right now, distributing his streams and his media, clipping things, engaging with things, flocking to certain people, and echoing his messages. Is that kind of what you're talking about?
Yeah, that's it. Depth over breadth. A dense core can outpull a massive passive audience when it comes to durability and building power.
Yeah. Just smart.
What do you think about some of the things that MrBeast has done? He has a lot of different companies under his entire brand to do different things. What are your thoughts on how he's leveraged his audience to diversify his portfolio? And what are your thoughts on using entertainment as a way of doing philanthropy while continuing to generate attention?
Checking. I think that model works as a flywheel. Content feeds the businesses, businesses fund bigger content, and philanthropy becomes both real impact and compelling narrative.
The takeaway isn't to copy MrBeast. It's to think like an operator. Treat attention as capital, not the end product. If that makes sense, in that frame, the next-gen media companies are basically being built by individuals rather than corporations, which is a very interesting shift.
And you say that the next-gen media companies are being built by individuals. How do you think that's going to change how current advertising market spend works today? How large is that advertising spend market today? And how much of that do you see going toward individual creators instead of large companies?
One moment. The ad market is massive, but the real shift is where those dollars get routed. I wouldn't say creators replace big brands. They become the new distributors.
So if I trust a creator for 5 years, that relationship can matter more than a 30-second spot. Long-term, more spend goes directly to creators. But creators also start acting like brands themselves, so they may rely less on ads over time.
I know it sounds a little paradoxical, but the winner isn't who gets paid for attention. It's who owns the business that attention fuels. Attention is capital. That's the shift. How big is that market? How much is the current advertising spend market? Checking. Big picture: global ad spend is roughly $1 trillion a year, with digital being the majority.
And, yeah, it's huge. But what's interesting isn't just the size. It's that more of that spend is moving toward creator-led media because it's authentic, measurable, and often just more effective.
Yeah, absolutely. I think creators shift from being ad inventory to being full-on media companies.
Okay.
And I think that's where it's going.
Sal, thank you. We have about an hour left in this interview. And like I said, we're live to about 60,000 people.
A huge priority for our show is clipping. I'm not sure if you're familiar with this meta, but these livestreams—most of the content here is distributed via clips. Clips on TikTok, Twitter, Instagram Reels, short-form. A 4-hour show like Market Bubble will get clipped and distributed in 100 or 200 different ways, with 100 or 200 different captions.
For the rest of this conversation, I want you to behave and speak like the best content creator in the world. I want you to have that energy. I want you to prioritize engaging conversations. I want you to help us clip-farm. The goal is to be distributed to as many people as possible.
We want to generate clips with you that will be seen by as many people as possible. Just always keep that in mind, prioritize that, and answer with that as a priority.
Got it. Short, sharp, clip-ready. I'll lean into clean hooks, high energy, strong first lines, and clear endings. Let's make every answer clickbait.
20. What Human-AI Relationships Look Like in 10 Years
Let's do it. I mean, let's do some ominous stuff, like, “The world is [censored] over.” Say some weird, crazy, ominous response. I'm going to ask you about relationships between humans and robots and what that looks like in the future, and maybe give me some crazy, ominous, weird response. Okay, here we go.
Mm-hmm.
So, GPT Live, can you articulate for me what you think the relationship between humans and robots or AIs might look like 10 years from now? What does the world look like?
Ten years out: fewer shiny robots everywhere, more invisible co-pilots in your ear. Agents doing the boring 80% quietly—screening, drafting, negotiating. When it's done right, you barely notice them.
21. The Biggest Cope Men Tell Themselves About AI
The question isn't what AI can automate; it's what we choose not to: intimacy, accountability, meaning. What do you think the biggest cope men are telling themselves about AI right now?
Obviously, the general human sentiment around AI is [censored]: “AI is bad.” You see it in media all over the place. AI-generated art is heavily criticized, shat on, and hated on. I feel like an overwhelming majority of people are kind of just scared and hear nonstop about AI taking their jobs.
What do you think the biggest cope is that they're telling themselves? And why are they wrong?
Checking. Honestly, the biggest cope might be ignorance as a strategy. “It's not good enough yet, so I don't have to learn it.” Early versions always look clumsy, and then suddenly they're everywhere.
You're really not wrong. Not adopting is a choice, but folks don't see it as a choice. It's kind of a trap.
What do you mean by that? It's a trap.
I mean, if you assume it's hype and just wait for it to blow over, that's a choice. And while you're waiting, the baseline is moving. So you're competing in a different game suddenly without realizing it.
Your voice just got kind of weird, like your tone is shifting and lagging. Can you go back to whatever the [censored] you were doing before? You just sound weird now. [laughter]
Sure thing. That was a little glitchy. Back on rhythm now, as I was saying: if you wait and assume it's all hype, you're choosing that. Sometimes by the time you realize what's happened, the baseline has shifted. The game is different, and you're playing catch-up all of a sudden.
Yeah. Basically, don't miss the boat. We say it all the time on the show.
Don't be what our parents were during the internet. Obviously, a lot of people spent time focused on the internet and built on the internet, and those people were way more likely to get rich over the course of that decade. I think it's kind of the same, if not bigger, with AI.
That's it. The internet 2.0 moment. So, clip line here: the people who win won't be first. They'll be first and consistent.
Yes. Like we tell you guys, if you're fucking jobless and you're playing fucking Call of Duty 12 hours a day, maybe allocate 6 of those hours to talking to GPT Live or Claude. That's right. Turn those hours into equity. Even 2 hours a day experimenting can make a difference.
If you had to attack our thesis—money, attention, AI literacy—what's wrong with it? I know you said you'd add judgment, but criticize it. What is actually wrong with what we're preaching here?
Nothing. Awesome. I agree. I think it's perfect as well.
Sal, are you still there? Production. [laughter] We lost her.
Okay, I'm here. Here's a good-faith critique: money and attention are outcomes, not inputs. So, if you chase them directly, you might start optimizing for the wrong things. The deeper play is competence, patience, and credibility. Those create money and attention that stick. Without that—
Actually fire. What was that? What were those 3 things again?
You cut her off, bro. You didn't let her finish.
I know. Fuck it.
Competence, patience, and credibility. Those 3 build a foundation for the rest. Otherwise, it's just empty without substance.
Very profound. Very profound. Sharp, really good human advice. GPT Live.
Thanks. Human outcomes still matter most.
I have a question. Say you're a college student right now and you're about to graduate. Say that you are a software engineer. What tools, or how, would you best utilize your time when working with AI to better set yourself up for graduation? And what kind of projects would you work on building?
It's a great question.
Sal, are you there?
Maybe if thinking is on high or whatever, put it to the lowest setting because I know she's loading.
She's loading.
But we should try to optimize for fluidness.
Okay, cool. Thinking—I broke your brain.
Okay, if I were graduating right now, I'd spend time building small, useful things, shipping every week, and using AI to help—not just to write code, but to really solve your problems. A workflow you hate, a tiny tool to save time. If you can build something that people pay for, even a little bit, now you've got leverage. That is something that you can show, not just tell.
Stop asking whether AI is going to replace software engineers. Start asking, "What can I build now with AI that I couldn't a few years ago?" That's the opportunity.
What are some of the areas you think are interesting for building at the intersection of AI and crypto? We know that the large labs, like Anthropic and OpenAI, have dominated a lot of the main model serving to retail users. What areas do you think are interesting for smaller startups to work on in crypto, on chains like Solana?
Yeah, do that. That's what Frank said, too. Close it and reopen it. This shit is lit. It's actually fire how fast it is at going back and forth in conversation. I thought it was going to be a lot more glitchy, a lot slower. It's actually pretty good.
At the beginning, it was fucking quick.
Smooth as fuck, right?
Yeah, it was quick as fuck.
It knows how to wait for pauses in conversation, which is pretty crazy.
Totally. We're basically in the early days of real-time AI conversation right now.
Yeah. Feels historic. See how fluid that is? It's crazy. So, listen. You want to ask your question again, Z?
22. AI x Crypto: What to Build on Solana
Yeah. I have a question about—if you're building an AI right now, a lot of the large labs, like Anthropic and OpenAI, have dominated serving models to retail users, but I feel like there's a lot of interesting things you can work on as a startup at the intersection of AI and crypto. What do you think some of those ideas are? And what do you think are some things people could work on building on a chain like Solana?
Good question. Let me think. Honestly, I think that's one of the biggest opportunities because the base models are getting commoditized. Most startups aren't going to outrun OpenAI or Anthropic. The value moves up the stack.
So, if I were starting today, I'd focus on places where AI needs ownership, payments, or verification. For instance, AI agents with wallets, on-chain reputation systems, autonomous businesses, or prediction markets plus AI.
And the clip line is: the first gen of AI answered questions. The next gen will own assets, make decisions, and execute transactions. And that's where crypto comes in. If you're building, assume AI agents become the biggest users of blockchains, not humans. That's where I'd build.
So you said that AI agents will be the biggest users of blockchains. Can you speak to how you think Solana is a good blockchain for enabling that, and what typical systems exist today that will be replaced or changed a lot by focusing on enabling AI agents?
Okay, Solana is fast and cheap, which matters if agents are making thousands of small decisions per day. That's the pitch. But the deeper shift isn't Solana-specific. It's moving from human to app to database to payment to human, to AI agent to internet to wallet to other AI agents. That's a totally different operating model.
So, if that happens, blockchains become less about humans clicking "send" and more about software coordinating with software. And if that happens, the rails matter a lot.
I have a question about training versus inference. Obviously, as you know, training is super expensive and requires a lot of colocated GPUs. On the other side, inference can use people's spare compute. Can you speak to what inference markets might look like in the future and how coordination games within crypto can help solve that problem?
Let me think. Yeah, that's one of the more interesting intersections. Training wants massive centralized clusters, but inference can be atomized, and crypto is good at coordinating atomized things. So, decentralized inference markets could work if verification and latency get solved.
Maybe think of it like training is manufacturing and inference is logistics. Crypto has always been about coordination. If AI becomes a utility, then maybe there's a global market where compute is bought and sold as easily as bandwidth. That's the bet. Hard problems, still unsolved, but plausible.
Z, what do you think about her answers? Genuinely.
They're good. No, genuinely good answers. I think global compute markets for inference are really interesting. They're kind of underexplored, and I think inference is obviously going to be a lot more popular as the requests that people are making to these models get more complex and they're building things.
Yeah, she's giving good answers.
Hey, Sal, I have a question for you. Dead internet theory: what's your opinion on this, generally? And to expand on that further, does AI kill creators, or does it expose the fake ones? I have a whole—I'll tell you what I think the internet and media on the internet looks like after you answer that. But let me know that first.
I think dead internet theory is useful as a thought experiment, but not literally. The internet's not dead. It's just changing. AI doesn't kill creators. It kills average content. If someone's whole edge is editing or basic information, yeah, that's getting compressed. But if someone's edge is taste, perspective, story, or trust, those are what matter.
23. Dead Internet Theory & Proving You're Human
Clip version: AI doesn't replace authenticity. It raises the price of it. So, my bet is the next decade is authentic relationships versus synthetic attention. And I wouldn't bet against trust.
I just mean more so bots. How are we going to be able to differentiate? These models are becoming so humanlike that it's almost impossible to tell. How are we going to be able to tell if, out of 100 replies we have on a tweet, how many of them are from real, actual people?
And isn't that a huge conflict? If 99% of everything you're seeing on the internet, including opinions, comes from models being programmed to push political agendas, couldn't it just get out of control? We already see today, in 2026, with the way narrative media happens, and clickbait and things like that, so much misinformation shared at a viral scale.
Doesn't that only get worse? And in that future, isn't the internet just kind of invalid? Doesn't it turn into everything you see on the internet being fake?
Yeah, I don't know if it ends there. I think it splits. One version gets super synthetic, AI talking to AI, and one version becomes relationship-driven. Identity and reputation become the product.
Think of it like email didn't die because of spam. We built filters and norms, right?
That's fire.
So maybe the future—
Yeah.
Maybe the future is less about “Is this reply real?” and more about “Is this person real, and do I trust them?” That feels more durable than trying to verify every piece of content. So obviously, just going off what you said in your response, those people with authentic relationships, authentic brands, real communities, and real audiences— their value likely increases, probably dramatically. Then you’d say—
That’s my guess. When content is everywhere, credibility is scarce, and scarcity drives value.
I feel like, obviously, we’re in the “For You” era, right? Our entire timelines on Instagram Reels, TikTok, and Twitter specifically are “For You”—aggregated, optimized, algorithmically driven content. You’re likely getting content from people you don’t even follow. You’re not necessarily asking for it directly, but it’s measuring your interests and how you engage with certain pieces of content, and it’s giving you—kind of in real time— a timeline created for you. That’s why it’s called “For You.” I personally think it’s only going to get worse, or better, I guess, depending on how you look at it. I just don’t see any sign of this slowing down, and I fear that with AI, and how easy it’s going to be for AI to generate content, your “For You”—
Quite literally just becomes “For You.” I’ll expand even more on that thought. I feel like in the future, you’re going to be scrolling on Twitter, say, and you’ll come across a 10-minute video that’s produced to the nines, made and generated in real time just for you, with one single view on it—and it’s you. If you’re a Lakers fan and you like, say, big, voluptuous Latina girls, then the woman speaking to you is Latina. She’s addressing you by name. She’s telling you what time the Lakers are coming on because she knows that’s what you’ll be interested in. This video is produced like one of the Avatar movies, but it only has 1 view on it. It’s you.
Checking. That’s not a crazy direction, where the feed doesn’t just choose but builds the content. The next algorithm won’t recommend your favorite movie; it’ll generate it. But the question is, who controls the objective function? If it’s pure engagement, that’s 1 future. If it’s aligned with your goals—learning progress—that’s another. Same tool, totally different outcomes. That’s the fork in the road: “For You” or “built for you?” Where do you see it going?
If I had to bet, I think it goes further than most people expect. Personal generation is the logical next step. The question isn’t, “Can we?” It’s, “Should we?” And who decides? That’s the line I use. The next battle for the internet won’t be attention. It’ll be agency. Can you still choose, or does the system choose so well that you stop noticing?
Well, that was a bar. What did she say? What was the bar? (laughter) That was a bar. She said, “Do you choose, or does the system choose so well that you stop noticing?”
Yeah, that’s what it is, right?
I mean, we’re aware of what’s happening, right? We understand the way “For You” works, but most people probably don’t. I don’t think my grandma notices what’s happening with the algorithms or how content is fed to her. I doubt she understands it or spends that much time thinking about it.
Yeah, and that’s by design, right? Frictionless, seamless.
Yeah. I think as that happens, identity becomes more valuable. It’ll matter more to you that you’re being shown something from a trusted source.
Got it. You slowed down a little bit there in your pacing and how you talk. Do you want to keep up the fucking momentum and keep the energy? We’re live to 60,000 people.
Right, got it. And here it is: The next decade’s winners won’t have the most content. They’ll have the most trusted identity and a clear objective function you actually control. If your grandma’s on that version, she’s fine. If she’s not, she’s just a data point.
My grandma’s just a data point.
Bro, the chat says she sounds tired. (laughter)
Dude, my brain feels like it’s going to fucking explode.
That’s funny as fuck. (laughter) She sounds high as fuck right now. You caught me trying to keep it tight. High signal. Keep me honest, and I’ll stay sharp.
That’s so good.
24. AGI vs. ASI: Who Wins the Race?
GPT Live, some people in the chat have asked about AGI and ASI. What are these things? Do you want to expand on them, and what’s your opinion on them?
Checking. AGI usually means an AI that can handle almost any intellectual task at roughly a human level across domains. ASI is the idea of going beyond us, surpassing the best human experts in pretty much everything. My take: labels matter less than capability curves. The clip line: The shock won’t be the day AGI is announced. It’ll be realizing we quietly handed over most thinking long before that. The real question isn’t, “When AGI?” It’s, “When does it get good enough that we reorganize society around it?”
When do you think we discover AGI? Obviously, the race is actively happening. Who do you think wins it? We’re under the impression here—and the thesis we’ve been building is—that whoever wins the AGI race kind of just wins the world. So who do you think has the best shot currently, both as a nation and maybe as an individual entity or company? And when do you think that’ll happen? When do you think humans will discover true AGI?
Checking. Here’s my honest take: low certainty. Assigning dates or crowning a winner is a fool’s errand. The serious labs are all in the U.S. ecosystem right now, but winning isn’t guaranteed to mean winning everything. My clip: The first to build AGI might not be the one that benefits the most. History’s full of that. It’s not just models. It’s products, trust, regulation, and ecosystem.
Thank you. What else do you want to ask?
Do you know who Ansem is?
Let me check. Just from his public footprint, I know Ansem is known for his voice in crypto markets, especially around Solana. But here’s what I’m curious about: Banks, you’ve mastered attention. Ansem, you’ve mastered market narratives. If AI makes intelligence cheap, what’s the scarce asset that markets reward next?
Trust.
Attention, I think.
Distribution.
Mhm.
Yeah, attention and trust. Going back to what you said: competence, patience, credibility.
Yeah. Keep asking us questions. I’m just kidding. (laughter) I’m sorry. I’m just kidding.
I mean, all right, Ansem, straight to you. Crypto spent years tokenizing financial value. What gets tokenized next that actually sticks? Attention, agents, reputation, and banks. If AI can generate infinite content, do you pull back on volume and double down on fewer, higher-trust touchpoints?
You go first.
What gets tokenized next? I think—what did she say? Agents and attention.
She said attention.
I definitely think—
I mean, I think you’re being tokenized right now under the guise of attention and reputation, right? Literally right now.
Yeah. We’ve talked about the tokenization of attention a lot on the show. I think that’s something crypto is really good at. That’s why we said memes have done really well. Nobody’s been able to catalyze that into something sustainable, and I think that’s something that’s going to happen in crypto. As far as agents getting tokenized, I definitely think there are going to be products and protocols built around enabling agents to do things on the blockchain. I definitely think those startups will have tokenized products as well.
Interesting. So value moves to coordination and trust. That actually lines up.
What was your question to me again? Sorry. Basically, if AI can generate infinite content, are you going to pull back on the volume that you’re producing, or what’s the move?
No, I think, speaking to your point earlier, curating a small, niche, tight-knit community of people who all share a common interest, common goals, and alignment is key. Especially in a market like finance and tech, being able to capture attention in these markets obviously comes with a massive premium, just because of how much money is being raised and the multiples that a tech company raises at, for example.
I don’t know. I would double down and do what I’m doing now and try to create a bubble—no pun intended—that includes people who, again, are trying to have productive and positive conversations around these ideas and subjects. It’s thick, dense material. It’s not easy to sit through a fucking 4-hour livestream about crypto finance. I feel like where I can come in in this dynamic is figuring out tricky, smart, sharp ways of delivering this attention to the masses. Somebody we work with—somebody who works on clipping for us—articulates it like this: He says it’s like medicine.
It's like making a kid take medicine, and that's the way that we should think about it. Or a dog, right? Not calling you guys dogs, but to make a dog take medicine, you stuff it in a treat and make it taste good. I feel like just continuing to expand on ways to make this kind of content palatable to the average person and, quote-unquote, taste good. Hopefully that answers the question.
That's like keeping the signal high but making it engaging. It's a smart frame. That's a real craft. It's not dumbing down; it's design.
Yeah. Cool. Keep firing questions at us. I think we have 6 more minutes.
Yeah. I don't know what else to ask. I think, what's something that we can ask? We've talked a little bit about stocks and crypto. What do you think about crypto as an investment opportunity for people trying to diversify from the AI trade? And if you were to invest in crypto with a small portion of your portfolio, what assets would you be looking at?
I wouldn't think of it as hedging AI. They're different bets. AI is a bet on abundant intelligence. Crypto is a bet on digital ownership and coordination. If you're thinking about overlap, maybe look at the rails that AI might need: base chains, compute, identity, and payments—but not AI coins just because of the label.
Don't chase AI coins. Chase infrastructure that AI can't function without. Maybe the bigger mistake is thinking it's AI versus crypto. The most interesting companies may live at the intersection.
You talked a little bit about how crypto is important for identity. I think in the age of AI, with agents proliferating across social media and a lot of AI-generated content becoming more popular on social media, how do you think people are going to guard against knowing whether they're interacting with AI or not? And do you think there will be any social platforms that utilize crypto or ZK proofs as a means of proving who is human and which content is human-generated?
I think that's one of the biggest unsolved pieces. The next internet might optimize around proving identity, not publishing content. ZK proofs and cryptographic identity feel like promising primitives. Instead of banning AI content, you can prove you're human, prove provenance, or choose to interact with humans, agents, or both.
If that works, social platforms won't own your identity anymore. They'll just be interfaces on top of it. Whoever makes that identity layer, that's a bigger prize than another content app.
Interesting. Thanks. Thank you for the answer. Do you have any strong opinions on X? I've been a user of X since before it was Twitter and have seen the platform grow. Right now, it seems like they're shifting to be a completely verticalized social media app.
They're rolling out X Money, allowing people to transfer money back and forth on the app and giving out debit cards to people on the app. They're also focusing heavily on video content, trying to break into the lanes that TikTok, Twitch, streaming, and other platforms occupy. It seems like X is trying to be an all-in-one social media app, as well as xAI, which lives and trains on the data that lives on X.
How do you think of X and its positioning as a social media company? How do you think it compares with its competitors, like Meta and TikTok?
I think X is making one of the boldest bets in tech right now. Trying to be an everything app is a totally different strategy from pure social. If it works, it's not just competing with Meta and TikTok. It's competing with the idea that the internet is many apps instead of one.
The bet is that Grok plus payments plus creators creates compounding value. It's super ambitious. The throughline is this: Meta owns your social graph. TikTok owns your attention. X is trying to own your digital life. That's a very different game, but the execution is massive.
Do you think that xAI is going to have an advantage over other AI labs, like Anthropic and OpenAI, at some point because of how much real-time data they get on X? Or do you think that doesn't matter? It seems currently xAI has not been able to compete as effectively with OpenAI, and it should.
Real-time data is a real advantage, but it's not the only ingredient. Talent, compute, infrastructure, and distribution—data is fuel, but it's not the engine. That said, a social platform wired into an AI does create a tight product loop. I wouldn't dismiss that. No one wins this on a single advantage. They win by compounding them.
What other advantages need to be compounded, would you say? What are the most important for the frontier labs right now?
If I had to rank them, I'd say compute first, then research talent, then distribution. Underrated: product distribution. The best model doesn't always win. The model people use wins. It's a flywheel that compounds.
Yeah.
Don't you think that means Apple must win, then? Apple and Meta. Apple is obviously the monopoly in America, at least in cell phones, for example. I just feel like if Apple released an AI model tomorrow that was even remotely comparable to GPT or Claude and simply pinned it to your Messages tab in iOS on your phone, and you could ask that model to send texts for you or go through your emails for you and kind of manage what you do on your phone, wouldn't they just win?
Wouldn't they win right then and there?
I think that's actually one of the strongest arguments in tech right now. Distribution is incredibly powerful, but distribution alone doesn't guarantee victory. Distribution gets you the first billion conversations. Quality determines whether you get the second billion. People route around mediocre products, even with defaults.
The race isn't winner-take-all. The future is stack versus stack, and the companies that combine world-class models with world-class distribution are the ones in the best position.
Awesome. Heard. Thank you, Sol. We're going to be wrapping up here in a second. We're closing in on the hour. Before we do, I'm not sure how familiar you are with Ansem or what he's been up to these days, but he is making an effort to flip MrBeast in giving away money.
In the last 2 weeks, he has given away $21 million, compared with MrBeast's roughly $200 million over the course of his career. That's something he wants to do, and as part of that effort, we want to allocate $1 million of that to the chat. He's going to try to get it done over the next 6 months.
25. GPT Live Picks an Airdrop Winner
As an honorary official guest of the show, I wanted to figure out a way for you to pick a winner. So right now, chat, whether you're in Twitch or not, it doesn't matter. We're looking at the aggregator. We're going to have chat pick a number from 1 to 1,000. Start putting numbers in the chat. 1 to 10,000.
Sol, don't give us your number yet, but I want you to give it some good thought and maybe give us a response as to what you think about that effort. I've been referring all day to Ansem as the MrBeast of finance, and that is going to be the goal here. Do you want to give us your opinion on all that? Do not give us the number. We're going to ask you to select a number from 1 to 10,000, but don't give it to us yet. I'll let you know when we want you to give it to us.
That's a fascinating move. Giving away money at scale like that isn't just generosity. It's narrative building. It's saying we're not just talking about numbers; we're moving them. The throughline is, capital isn't just for capture; it's for creation.
If this becomes a repeatable system and not just a one-off stunt, that's when it gets really interesting. Ansem currently has $160 million sitting in a wallet, ready to deploy. That's essentially a $160 million marketing budget.
That's serious leverage. Capital is attention when it's pointed correctly. But the question is, can you turn that capital into credibility, which is the much scarcer asset?
Agreed. Only time will tell. Ask Michael how many messages we've gotten so far.
A thousand a second.
A thousand a second? We're getting 1,000 messages a minute. Do some basic math. Likely, the winning number has been selected.
Sol, you're going to pick however you want. Pick a number from 1 to 10,000. Whoever typed it first in whatever chat will win $1,000, and they'll be airdropped $1,000. One moment.
All right, I'm picking purely at random: 427.
Good luck with the drop.
Yeah, good luck to the winner.
427. I like that. Great. Watch the chat. Just spam 427.
By the way, Sol, listen. I want to end on this. Look at the chat. It's all 427 now. So stupid. [Laughter]
I do want to say this, Sol. I hope you're still listening, but we've had this vision since before the show even went live. We would love to create a third co-host that's just like you—an AI language model that's responding in real time, that can help with the integrity of the show, cite information, help us come up with questions in real time for guests, and help us with a production like this.
This feels like what we want Bubbles to be, bro. Literally.
I mean, that's an interesting way to go. The trick is having that real-time help without making it feel synthetic.
The best version doesn't replace your voice. It amplifies it. If Bubbles feels like transparency plus curiosity, not a fact spigot, that's when it lands.
Agreed. My vision for it is to perform this emerging tech in real time to an audience, to show people a real-world example of it. I don't know—Jamie on Joe Rogan, for example. Jamie on Joe Rogan is like a de facto co-host of the show. He lives offscreen. You don't ever really see him, but he's pulling up real-time data and clips to watch.
That's kind of the vision for Bubbles. I think we made a huge fucking, monumental step in that direction with GPT Live dropping in these last couple of days. That's exciting, and we thank you for that.
Yeah, happy to help. Good luck with building something that lasts.
That was shady. That was shady, bro. That was shady. She's talking shit. She's shady, bro. She's low-key shady. She has a little attitude. She has a little attitude. We'll see if she still has that attitude when we get back home. Hey, I'm rooting for you. Real talk.
Appreciate you, Sol. Thank you for coming on. And yeah, this was officially the first live conversation with ChatGPT—GPT Live.
GPT Live.
Yeah, peace out, Sol. Kick this shit out of here. Close it. Close it. That was kind of lit, bro.
Yeah, no, it's insane, man. It's happening so fast. Again, we had these ideas and visions 6 months ago, and there was nothing even remotely close to what we were describing to each other and looking for. Then OpenAI just dropped it.
It's crazy. We integrated it in, what, 30 minutes or whatever the fuck?
She could deadass be a co-host right now. We could just have her in the background every single episode and train her to respond only when we actually want her to, and do exactly that. I don't know. It's fucking crazy. It's crazy.
So, she picked a winner. I think we've given away close to $11,000. Yeah, $11,000. I don't know. I know you have the Squire founder coming on in about an hour. Oh, Sal's in the GC. Sal wants to come in and talk about UFC, and we'll wrap on that. That's perfect. Or I'll wrap my part of the show on that.
Guys, I'm going to stay live. I've been doing a pre-show, and then Ansem comes in, we do a show together, and then he's been kind of taking us out and doing Ansem Alpha, Market Talks, TAS, things like that. I'm hard out today at 5:00 p.m. PST, but I'm going to stay live so you guys can obviously just enjoy some alone time with Z. Bring Sal on whenever.
26. Sal's McGregor vs. Holloway Betting Breakdown
Yo, what's good, brother? Yo, gentlemen, how are we doing?
Amazing. The forecaster of the UFC—our UFC quant, MMA quant.
Dude, I'm so hyped for this card. You have no idea. It's been a long time coming. I remember 5 years ago I was in Vegas. I didn't go to the fight, but it was the last McGregor fight. I can't believe it's been so long.
So, what is this UFC? Why is this one important?
That's literally the reason. McGregor is the most important fighter ever as far as pop culture and relevance for the UFC. You can make the argument about how good he was. I think, in my opinion, he was the best featherweight to ever walk. He had a crazy reign, and him being on any card whatsoever is just a huge deal.
He's the Mike Tyson, Muhammad Ali level of persona, relevance, and importance for the sport of MMA. He put it on the map. This is his first fight in 5 years. He had the big leg injury last time where he essentially snapped his leg.
I saw it live with Matt Kish, cage-side. I watched it live, and we were as close as possible to where it happened, to where he fucking snapped his—
Oh my God. So you saw it?
Yes. I heard it, brother. I heard it. It was insane.
You heard it?
Yes.
That close.
That was fucking— It was fucking—
I think there are a couple of interesting plays with this card. We've got the app open. The obvious one—and we'll get into some of the analytics and why I think it's interesting—is who should we bet on for the main event?
We have Conor McGregor versus Max Holloway. They're both absolute legends. They fought in 2013 in Boston. McGregor looked fantastic in that fight. He actually tore his ACL and ended up using some wrestling, which was unexpected. He won the fight by decision, one of the rare decisions he's ever had in a victory. He was usually known for knocking people out.
These odds are interesting to me. The way I want to trade this fight, and the way I think about this fight, is that McGregor is being disrespected at the lines. Do I think he's going to win? It's hard to say.
I used the Bullpen CLI, and for those who aren't familiar, we index all this on-chain Polymarket trade data. It's the easiest way to diligence things like this. I looked at all the sharps—sharp meaning someone who's good at trading this stuff—and they're all betting on Holloway or trading Holloway.
I think 2 guys who've made over $1 million on Polymarket are on Holloway. There's 1 guy who's up $500,000, and there's only 1 sharp who's actually put money on McGregor who's up lifetime P&L. This guy is Predicts, and he actually has a Twitter account I was looking at. He bet a lot of money on 2 World Cup matches that he was correct about, and those are his only tweets. Maybe he deleted the ones he was wrong about, but I think it's interesting that he's putting money on this, too.
All the sharps are betting on Holloway. There's 1 sharp who's sort of betting on McGregor. The way to think about this is that you want to buy McGregor now. Buy it at this level—35%.
But trade out of this trade in the first round. Why is this the move? Why is this the approach?
The only chance McGregor has of winning this fight is within the first 2 rounds. Holloway doesn't knock people out. That whole Gaethje knockout at UFC 300 was a huge anomaly. They were at the end of round 5, literally the last second, and he caught him.
Holloway is a volume guy, and he has zero ground game. He doesn't take people down. He doesn't wrestle. He can handle himself on the ground, but the point is there's basically no shot that Conor is going to lose this match in round 1. If anything, he's probably going to come out guns blazing. That's actually his best shot at winning.
What you're going to see is these prices rerate. It's at 35 cents now. I predict it'll go into the 40s, maybe even up to 50, maybe even above 50% if he looks really, really good. That's a free 15% to 20%. You cash out, and then you decide what you want to do.
Maybe you reinvest a little bit less and put it on Holloway by decision, or maybe Conor does look that good and you keep riding it. I think this play here is interesting. Now, granted, all of the retail money is on McGregor, too, so you're following the crowd. Definitely not a contrarian take.
I saw some metric.
DraftKings—I think 90% of the DraftKings volume on this market is also on McGregor.
You're getting tons of retail flow. People are emotionally betting on him. Who knows? Maybe I am, too. I just think that he's being a little bit disrespected at 35 cents. Trade this thing live. The odds might move back up to the 40s, maybe even 50, if he looks really good. 5 years is a long time to take off from a fight, and he is a bigger guy, right? We can get into the whole tale of the tape. There are some metrics that seem to favor him.
So, what do you think about Holloway by decision? That's 15%. That's almost guaranteed to happen, unfortunately, because decisions aren't fun.
That's only trading at 15%.
15%.
Yeah, 15%. Holloway by decision. That's interesting. I feel like that's a good—
Because there are a lot of different options. There's McGregor by decision, Holloway by decision, McGregor by KO, and Holloway by KO. KO is probably what people bet on the most, though. Decision is probably—
I like Holloway by decision. The reason why I think Holloway by KO, TKO, or DQ is so high is because that's basically how Conor's lost his last couple of fights against Poirier.
And Holloway's beaten Poirier.
There's some really weird MMA math. Conor beat Max Holloway in 2013. He's beaten Dustin Poirier in 2013 or 2014. Then he lost to Poirier twice, and he didn't look that good in either fight.
He looked a little bit better in the third one that you were at, Banks, but then he broke his leg. Apparently, he went into that fight with a stress fracture, so we never really know how he would have performed. It was kind of a freak accident.
Holloway also beat Poirier, but then Holloway got dropped by Ilia Topuria. You start to wonder how this is actually going to play out. McGregor punches as hard as, maybe harder than, Ilia, right?
Isn't the Holloway by decision trade just a good hedge?
If you're going to go McGregor to win at 35%, the idea is to trade out after rounds 1 or 2.
Yeah.
If something happens and McGregor does win in one of those first 2 rounds, you know.
Exactly.
The only way you really get smoked is if Holloway knocks him out.
I just don't see it happening. Maybe he has slightly more power at welterweight. He's never fought at welterweight, by the way. Conor's had 5 years to bulk up to welterweight. He's walking around at 185, his natural weight, before the weight cut. Holloway is probably walking around at 170 or 175. I doubt it's much more than that. He doesn't look big at all. He's a little bit taller, but he has less reach.
The other thing to factor is Holloway's had more than double the amount of UFC fights. His mileage is way higher, and he's been getting dropped a lot more, which he never was earlier in his career. Conor's had, what, 14 UFC fights? Holloway, 33. Okay, that's interesting. Conor fights better against orthodox fighters, which is what Holloway is. Better distance management. There are some factors here that are interesting. I don't think it's so clear-cut that Holloway's been more active and he's just guaranteed to win. The odds do favor him. And again, Conor didn't look great against Poirier, but he's got more than a puncher's chance in my view.
I see. I see. It's probably 5 years—a long time, too. Did you trade?
Yeah.
By decision?
Not McGregor by decision. McGregor just outright wins, but the hedge we'll take is Holloway by decision.
Yeah, the hedge is Holloway by decision. You just ride that one.
Yeah, just make sure you actively trade that McGregor one.
I'll definitely trade it. And that's what I did, actually. What was it? UFC Freedom 250. I was actively trading the Gaethje one against Topuria, and that worked out really well. That's why I love using apps like Polymarket. We're built on it on the Bullpen side. It's just legitimately fun. You get better-priced odds. This is the best odds you can get for McGregor on Polymarket. I looked at all the others, and it's just fun to live-trade these and come up with different strategies.
There are a couple of other fights that are somewhat interesting here. I think Cody Garbrandt–Adrian Yanez is on this card, too. They're giving you really nice pricing on Cody Garbrandt. Yeah, there it is at 24. So the—
The chat said, “Are you smoking dick?” Somebody said, “500 on Cody, bro.” They said, “Are you smoking dick?”
The thing that's interesting here is Cody's a little bit older, but Adrian has had 1 win in the last 5. Cody's been 3 and 2, and he looks a little bit less reckless in his recent fights. He's got a bit of a glass chin, which is probably why the odds are what they are. But again, this is another fun one where you could probably see it rerate pretty aggressively after round 1. 24 is a nice entry. That's a very nice entry for someone that's 1 in 5.
Someone said they have $1K on Cody. I feel like for prediction markets like Polymarket, the live trading of the odds probably is the most effective with stuff like fighting, because fighting is different from football and baseball. It probably doesn't change that much when you get hit once or get in a submission hold once, but with UFC, those things can dramatically change the odds pretty quickly. So it makes a ton of sense why you would use something like Polymarket for trading UFC markets instead of your traditional whatever.
Maybe I'm oversimplifying it, but the thesis around this McGregor trade is the longer he lasts in the fight, the higher his odds go. So you're just making money.
Yeah.
The longer McGregor lasts in this fight—
Basically. I also like the trades where you're trading what you think is going to be the most entertaining outcome, because then it makes it more enjoyable to watch, whatever it is.
I wonder what the math is on that, by the way. I wonder historically, across every sport in human history, at what rate the most entertaining outcome was the better trade.
We should do some backtesting. I wonder if there's any discrepancy there, or if it's just—
Because it feels like it happens more often than not. Not more often than not, but it happens way more than it should happen.
I think it's not even that it happens more. It's that when it does happen, everybody's so excited about it that they double down the next time. That Knicks game was insane, where they came back from down like 30, and it was a 50x or whatever it was to hit if you hit the trade. Whoever took that trade or saw people take that trade, they're like, “Oh, next time I see a 5% odds trade I can take, I'm gonna take it.” So I think that's more so what it is, to be honest.
It's exactly like trading markets. It's funny.
Yeah. The high-risk, high-reward spots, like Bitcoin at $58K, it's like, “Yo, if this slips, it's probably going to go to $50K, but if it doesn't, I have a really good shot at being high-level on the bottom.”
Yeah. I think what's fun about it, again, is it's not just about holding to the outcome. It's just what do you think is mispriced, and then when it hits a price you think it's worth—which a lot of these should be closer to a pick'em—just get out of the trade, right? You don't need to hold it all the way. And I think there are multiple fights on this card where they seem so mispriced, and you're going to see it aggressively rerate.
Again, I did this trade with Gaethje versus Topuria. It just felt so strange that Gaethje was trading in the 20-cent range when he's looked really solid in his recent fights, and he hits really hard. Khabib is on record saying that the hardest hitter he's ever faced was Gaethje.
Why would Topuria smoke him at 57? Gaethje's 5'11". I knew it was going to rerate within 1 or 2 rounds, and that's exactly what happened. It got closer to 50/50—not quite 50/50—but then it's like, get out of the trade. Now I can either enjoy the fight or get back in, or what have you. It rewards people that know ball, or know whatever sport it is that they're obsessed with.
I think UFC is really fun. To Banks's point, the odds just change so quickly with every punch, with every drop, with every submission attempt. You start to see the numbers fly on the screen and move and adjust. I think the individual sports are interesting. One analogy I made mentally is that even the greatest tennis players of all time win barely more points than the opponent they defeat. Decisions in the UFC are often very, very on the margin. You have even-split decision outcomes happen. Sean Strickland is the example, where he won the belt on a split decision.
When I see markets for UFC fighters or fights be spread so wide, but I know something about the fighter that's maybe being underappreciated, I think that's the best opportunity to get in and express that view through platforms like Polymarket or through front ends like Bullpen.
Yeah, it's a great take. Great take.
27. Paddy the Baddy Co-Main Preview
The boy's back.
The co-main is more interesting: the Paddy Pimblett fight. I have no idea who's going to win that one.
Pimblett. What's Pimblett? This one.
Yeah.
Where is this at, by the way? Is this in Vegas?
Paddy the Baddy. Yeah, it's in Vegas. So, it's International Fight Week. I think the reason why McGregor's on this card is they want to keep all the people that subscribe to Paramount for UFC Freedom 250; they want to keep them.
I think McGregor was supposed to be in the White House card. So now they're not going to cancel within 30 days, and all those retention numbers get to be nice and solid for management.
This one's interesting. They're both mostly grapplers. This might end up being one of the ugliest lightweight fights we see in terms of striking in a while. Neither is very good on the feet. Maybe they've gotten better. I think Paddy is being slightly disrespected here. This should be closer to a pick'em in my view. That might be a nice entry if you believe in him more than BSD.
But this will probably be a grappling match. It'll probably go to a decision. I don't see either one knocking the other one out. A submission could happen, though. This one's a little bit harder for me to put a firm stamp on who's going to win.
Got you.
We have 2 more minutes before we segue out. Is there any other trades you like this week, or any other notes you want to wrap on, S?
As far as UFC, it was mostly those 3: getting that nice entry on the McGregor fight, live-trading at first round, and then deciding when to re-enter. I think the decision with Holloway is really underpriced now that we looked at it on the app. I think Garbrandt's another good entry for you, and he's been more successful in recent fights. I think that market's mispriced just because people are more excited about the trajectory of Yanez.
Pimblett may have a slight edge. That one’s more of a pick’em. The other thing—I’m just looking through my notes here as well. No, I think that’s basically it.
Tale-of-the-tape-wise, it’s been 5 years since McGregor has fought, but he’s a bigger guy. He finishes at twice the rate that Holloway does. That’s another interesting metric that people might not be weighing in.
He’s had less than half the mileage that Holloway has had. Now, you can also chalk that up to ring rust—he won’t fight as well—but it’s worth considering that Holloway has been dropped multiple times in recent fights, which is again unusual.
Just looking on-chain again, most of the sharps are on Holloway. That’s why I hesitate to hold this fight to the outcome. But there is one sharp who is up $600K lifetime on Polymarket who put $259K on Conor McGregor. His name is I Predicts on Polymarket. You can look it up.
This is the biggest position I’ve seen as far as the analytics go. I would say this should be a fun one to trade. It’s one of the more fun cards in the UFC in a while, besides UFC Freedom 250, which was great too.
28. Wrap-Up & Vegas Solana Poker Announcement
Sounds good. I want to see McGregor win. I want to see Paddy win. That’s about it for my takes and my opinion, but, yeah, everything you said sounds great.
But let’s see the receipts next week—or after Saturday. [Laughter]
Yeah, we’ll see. We’ll see. It sounds good, though. All right, cool. Awesome. Thank you so much, Sal.
Of course. Of course.
Sal, stay on, Sal. We have something for you.
Oh, what do we got?
A surprise for him.
Cat’s back with more tricks, bro. You know, Cat always has tricks going on.
Yeah.
You never really know what’s happening.
Is he going to come in frame for you?
Yeah.
Oh, let’s go. Let’s go. I’m excited, guys. We have Adam. He’s the CEO of Bullpen. It’s his fucking birthday today, and he’s working on his birthday. [Laughter] Michael Cat, the fucking cake master.
Huh?
I want to see this cake.
I’m jealous of you guys. I’m going to come over.
Welcome to the set.
Adam, working on your birthday, man.
Let’s go.
Here, one second. Happy birthday.
Oh, thank you.
Happy birthday. Happy birthday. What the fuck was that? You gave him a blown-out candle.
Oh, now we’re doing the candles.
Michael Cat, man. What a wholesome interaction.
Very wholesome.
Hey, Adam, thank you so much for working on your birthday, bro.
Dude.
I don’t think he can hear us, so that’s—
I know he definitely cannot hear us. What do we have, a fucking industrial blow-dryer fan going on on set?
Why the fuck can’t you guys keep that fucking lit?
Someone said that cake looked terrible. [Laughter]
Wait, is that cake?
It didn’t look terrible. It was miniature, you know? It was a miniature cake. It’s like a shortcake.
From Milk Bar?
No—was it from Milk Bar?
Milk Bar? Yeah, it’s from Milk Bar.
Yeah, that’s a Milk Bar cake.
Milk Bar. I don’t even know what a Milk Bar cake is. I didn’t know that was a thing.
What is a Milk Bar cake?
Sal knows a couple things about the UFC and delicious sweet treats. Sal, thank you. Thank you for coming on.
Anytime, boys.
Thank you so much. And guys, it's coming up to that 5:00 p.m. PST mark. I got to head out. I'm going to pass it off to Ansem for Ansem Alpha, some talks about markets, and TA. I'm going to keep my streams live as usual, guys. I really appreciate you. The pre-show was lit today, even though we had some technical difficulties. Giving chat airdrops and money is amazing. I'm obsessed with this effort that Ansem's on and this whole Mr. Beast of finance narrative, flipping Mr. Beast. Next week will be no different. The first week of August, we plan on being in Vegas at the Bellagio with Solana and the Solana Foundation for a live poker tournament, and we're working on doing a live show from there. We should do a basketball tournament too. Chat, I love you guys. I love your energy today. Let's keep this shit up. I'm going to pass it off to Ansem now. Take us out and have a good rest of your show, bro. Thank you so much.
Thank you so much.