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Against the Rules · · 36 分钟

Michael Burry 发声|Michael Lewis

Michael BurryMichael Lewis

YouTube
TL;DR
  • Burry 做空 Palantir 的看跌期权仓位,比 CNBC 报道的“10亿美元”大约小两个数量级。 他买入约50,000张执行价50美元、2年后到期的看跌期权,标的是股价约200美元、他认为价值不超过30美元的股票。由于期权每张价值不到2美元,他说仓位规模是1000万美元,而不是10亿美元;媒体把对应股票数量乘以股价后得出了后者。“有意思的是,他们不会这样对待其他任何人。”
  • 他的 Palantir 论点是:一家重咨询的软件公司,给自己的应用套上了 AI 外衣。 股权薪酬几乎吃掉了全部利润;通过抵消稀释所需的回购来衡量真实成本,再从现金流中扣除这部分支出,“从历史上看,他们根本没赚到钱”。他的判断依据是:约40亿美元收入对应5名亿万富翁,“亿万富翁/收入比大于1,我以前从没见过这种情况”。IBM经营着规模更大、基本相似且增速大致相当的业务,却没有 Palantir 那样的估值。
  • 他的择时框架把 AI 映射到互联网泡沫时期的建设周期,但他称那“并不真是互联网泡沫,而是数据传输泡沫”。 Cisco 的收入在2000年增长55%,2001年增长17%,即使 NASDAQ 已于2000年3月10日见顶;在此前的狂热周期中,股市见顶时资本开支通常“连一半都还没完成”,往往早于资本开支见顶。如今净投资占名义 GDP 的比重已达到页岩革命时期水平,接近互联网泡沫峰值;一家公司每宣布1美元 AI 资本开支,市值可能增加约3美元,Oracle 就是例子。“我原以为2年足够。”
  • 他关闭基金、注销注册,如今主要管理自己的资金,因为被动持有已经改变了崩盘的运行机制。 资金中超过50%是被动投资,真正长期思考股票、主动管理的比例不到10%;不同于2000年,当时被市场忽视的股票在 NASDAQ 崩盘期间反而上涨,“现在我觉得整个市场都会跌下来”,并可能进入一轮“更接近2000年的”长熊市。他也不想让投资者再经历那一遭。他的建议是:买入被市场冷落的医疗保健股,卖出所有已经大幅上涨、看起来估值过高的资产。
  • 对于 Berkshire 买入 Google,他怀疑 AI 能否帮助 Google 的摇钱树业务。 Google 搜索之所以成立,是因为约85%的搜索无法变现,但成本只有“几乎可以忽略不计的美分零头”;而他自己的 AI 查询“单次成本就要几十美元”。免费版 LLM 已经大规模渗透,并且“会被商品化”;真正的钱在开发者端,而不是那些“永远不必”付费的消费者。
  • 宏观上,他不愿押注美国无法解决债务问题(“等 Castro 去世……不是策略”),主张废除 Fed,并称10万美元的 Bitcoin 是“我们这个时代的郁金香球茎”。 数学账本很残酷——个人税收4.5万亿美元、企业税收4000亿美元、年度利息支出1万亿美元——但“这是美国”。他认为中性利率“可能在4%左右”,因此现在降息会惩罚储蓄者,并可能令收益率曲线变陡。他自2005年以来一直持有黄金;Bitcoin “比郁金香球茎更糟”,因为它助长了犯罪活动。
  • 《大空头》的尾声是:没有人道歉。 即便事情进展顺利,投资者“通常也对我很生气”;胜利兑现后,得到的回应是:“哦,我们不想再经历一次那种事了。”他出于自我保护把邮件档案交给 Lewis——“我想确保你掌握一切……我没有做错任何事”——并认为这些邮件是“我没有被投资者起诉的主要原因”。
摘要 · 为研究而整理的核心内容

1. Lewis 不情愿采访的铺垫:13F 披露让“低调行事”变得不可能

  • Burry 此前拒绝参加播客,之后短暂改口说愿意帮忙,随后又反悔。他向 SEC 强制提交的13F披露了针对 Palantir 和 NVIDIA 的大额看跌期权仓位,相关新闻在“Twitter、CNBC 上爆炸式传播”,持续了48小时。Lewis 再次发出邀请的逻辑是:“他已经没法低调了”,那“拒绝还有什么意义”?
  • Lewis 回顾了当年的原始交易:次级抵押贷款债券的信用违约掉期并不存在,因此 Burry“不得不帮华尔街为他创造出这种工具”——就像给别人家的房子买火灾保险。《大空头》中的其他所有角色,后来都使用了这个由他推动创造的工具。

2. 《大空头》为何独特,以及他的投资者为何始终无法原谅他

  • 在“没人认为这会发生”的时候,Burry 无需持有债券,就能为极度缺乏流动性的债券买到相对便宜的保险。到2005年末,Goldman Sachs 打电话来问:“你在做什么?我们认识的人里只有你在这么做。”关键在于,这是“百年一遇、可以真正说出‘我知道它什么时候会发生’的机会”;相比之下,1990年代的泡沫“没人知道什么时候会结束”,做空只是“一场高风险的冒险”。
  • 事后的人情账,他说得毫不掩饰:即便事情进展顺利,投资者“通常也对我很生气”;在最后1年半里,只有1人继续投资,胜利之后也没有任何人打电话道歉。“我没指望他们道歉。这里是华尔街。”他于2013年重新开张时故意把规模做小——低于 SEC 投资顾问注册门槛、不做营销、只接受自己认识的投资者——尽管“如果我愿意,本可以募资数十亿美元”。
  • 他交给 Lewis 写书用的邮件档案,本质上是自我保护:“我觉得那些邮件是我没有被投资者起诉的主要原因……我们和每个人究竟处于什么关系,写得非常清楚。”

3. Palantir 空头:名义金额失真、股权薪酬会计,以及“地球上最幸运的公司”

  • Burry 希望纠正的报道口径是:50,000张执行价50美元、2年后到期的看跌期权,标的是股价约200美元、他认为“价值不超过30美元”的股票。期权每张价值不到2美元,因此仓位约为1000万美元;但媒体把标的股票数量乘以现货价格,报道成10亿美元空头。他的指数对冲也遭遇了同样的失真:“他做空了15亿美元的 S&P 500。”Lewis 将 Alex Karp 对 Burry 的抨击比作金融危机期间 John Mack 把责任归咎于做空者,并补充说,人们开始追打做空者,“向来是一个非常糟糕的信号”。
  • 他的基本面判断是:Palantir 把部署成本高昂的应用软件连同咨询服务一起出售;政府收入占比从过半降至更为均衡的水平;企业高管层正忙于应对压力,因为他们“觉得自己必须给某些东西加上 AI”。剔除股权薪酬——用回购抵消稀释,再把回购支出从现金流中扣除——“从历史上看,他们根本没赚到钱”。真正吸引他注意的是:约40亿美元收入对应5名亿万富翁,亿万富翁/收入比超过1。
  • 值得保留的框架是:“Palantir 和 NVIDIA 是地球上最幸运的两家公司。两家公司都没有生产出 AI 产品。”NVIDIA 幸运了两次——GPU 恰好适合加密货币挖矿,之后又恰好适合 AI;Palantir 则是在 ChatGPT 出现后“给自己的应用套上 AI 外衣”,但“现在每家公司都在这么做”。

4. 泡沫择时:资本开支狂潮在支出见顶前就先在市场见顶

  • 历史模板是:互联网时代其实是“一场数据传输泡沫”——光纤需要路由器,路由器也需要光纤。Cisco 的收入在2000年增长55%,2001年增长17%,因为市场见顶后投资仍在继续。Burry 认为投资峰值出现得更晚;把净投资——资本开支减折旧——与名义 GDP 对照作图,会看到“一座座漂亮的投资狂潮山丘”。此前的案例显示,市场见顶时资本开支通常连一半都还没完成,而且往往早于资本开支本身见顶。
  • 目前,相关指标相对 GDP 已达到页岩革命时期的水平,接近互联网泡沫峰值;市场正处于这样一个阶段:每宣布1美元 AI 资本开支,大约就能增加3美元市值。Oracle 上涨40%,Ellison 一度成为全球首富,靠的是一项规模庞大、仍需投入资金建设的计划所带来的预订量。Burry 的判断刻意留有余地:“我不能这么说,因为它还没有完全发生”,但“我原以为2年足够”。他的建议是:买入被市场冷落的医疗保健股,卖出那些一路直线上涨、估值过高的持仓。
  • 他如今更愿意主要管理自己的资金,原因在于:超过50%的资金是被动投资,不到10%由真正进行长期思考的人主动管理,市场已经没有2000年那种可以藏身的、被忽视的股票角落——“整个市场都会跌下来”,而一边做多美股、一边保护自己“将非常困难”。他关闭了基金,也不想让投资者再经历那一遭,并且“立即把所有仓位都为自己建起来——仓位完全相同”。

5. Google 的摇钱树、无法做空的美债,以及废除 Fed

  • 对于 Berkshire 买入 Google,他说:“我们不知道那是不是 Buffett 的决定”,Google 只是那一组标的里“价值投资者最喜欢的一个”。他的担忧在于单位经济性:约85%的搜索无法变现,只有在成本低到“几乎可以忽略不计的美分零头”时才成立,而他自己的 AI 查询每次成本却要几十美元。搜索“基本贡献了他们全部现金流”。不同于 Amazon 借助互联网普及缓慢推进所享受的红利,免费 LLM 已经“拥有极高渗透率”;消费者“永远不必”为此付费,因此 LLM 会被商品化,资金会转向开发者端。
  • 对于美国债务危机,他说:“等 Castro 去世,不是策略。”账本上的数字——个人税收4.5万亿美元、企业税收4000亿美元、年度利息支出1万亿美元,加上更薄的社会缓冲垫——“荒谬至极”;但储备货币地位意味着,“押注美国找不到解决办法,是我近期不愿做的事”。
  • 对 Fed 独立性,他称自己的看法“有点病态”:“当 Trump 开始掌控 Fed 时,Fed 可能就走到了尽头,因为……所有人都会讨厌它,而不只是我。”他会用一个由财政部作出相关决策的体系取代 Fed——“反正它们几乎已经是同一个部门”;他认为中性利率“可能在4%左右”,并警告降息会“杀死所有储蓄者”,还可能令收益率曲线变陡。他的避险资产是自2005年以来一直持有的黄金,而不是 Bitcoin——“它一文不值……它是我们这个时代的郁金香球茎”,而且因为助长犯罪活动,甚至比郁金香球茎更糟。
Speaker 1

I'm Lydia Dean Cott.

Michael Lewis

I'm Michael Lewis.

Speaker 1

And, surprise, we're here for an extra episode of The Big Short companion series.

Michael Lewis

One we weren't expecting. That's right.

Speaker 1

Yeah, because we got the hedge fund manager Michael Burry to be on the podcast.

Michael Lewis

We didn't really get him to be on the podcast. It's funny what happened.

Speaker 1

Well, first we should say who Michael Burry is.

Michael Lewis

Michael Burry is one of the 3 main characters in both the book and the movie of The Big Short, and he was a really important character to me.

Speaker 1

And in the movie he's played by Christian Bale.

Michael Lewis

And in the movie he's played by Christian Bale.

Speaker 1

He doesn't do interviews, and we'd asked him to be on the podcast earlier, and he said no. So what happened?

Michael Lewis

First he said, “You know, I'd like to help,” and then he said, “I wouldn't like to help.” And then what happened was his trading activity got released to the public, which it does. He has to file a 13F form with the SEC saying what his positions are.

Although it's not a perfect picture of what he's doing, it did say that he had put on big short positions against Palantir and NVIDIA. So he was betting against the AI bubble. All he did was file what his positions were. He doesn't do media, he doesn't do interviews, and it exploded. It was on Twitter, on CNBC. People were both attacking him and praising him.

His reasoning for not coming on the podcast was that he wanted to lay low. And he was trending on Twitter for 48 hours.

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Michael Lewis

So it was like, “What's the point?” He can't lay low.

Speaker 1

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Michael Lewis

And as he tells us, he says, “This only happens to me.” But I was really glad to have him on because I felt like we were missing somebody.

Speaker 1

Yeah, no, same. And also because people were asking. I was getting messages saying, “Are you guys going to have Michael Burry?”

Michael Lewis

There's something also nice about subjects who aren't promiscuous, who don't just talk to everybody.

Speaker 1

Because it makes you feel special, or...?

Michael Lewis

It makes you feel special. It makes the audience feel special, and the reader feel special.

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Michael Lewis

It's like—

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Michael Lewis

—nobody else has this story.

1. Inventing The Big Short

Speaker 1

And one thing I wanted you to explain is that he was one of the first people, one of the early people, to bet on the subprime mortgage crisis. And when he was trying to do it, there weren't any financial instruments to do that, right?

Michael Lewis

It was how to do it in a way where, if the madness just kept going and going, you weren't going to be bankrupt quickly. You could have done things like bet against mortgage companies in the stock market. You could have shorted their stock. But that's a bet that's hard to hold for a long time, so your timing has to be exquisite.

What he did was basically invent, or have Wall Street firms invent for him, the credit default swap on subprime mortgage bonds, which is essentially an insurance policy on bonds backed by subprime loans. So if the loans go bad and the bonds go bad, you get paid off on this insurance policy.

Think of it like I get to buy insurance on your house—fire insurance—and if it burns down, I get paid. So there's something a little goofy about it. It used to be that I could go buy life insurance on you, and if you died, I got paid a bunch of money. This obviously creates a very bad incentive.

Speaker 1

Murder. Murder.

Michael Lewis

Yes, exactly. But you can do this in the financial markets. You can buy insurance policies on other people's bonds, and if the bonds go bad, you get paid.

When Michael Burry started to think about this situation, you couldn't buy an insurance policy on a subprime mortgage bond, so he had to help Wall Street create it for him. And then all the other characters in the story are using that thing he creates to make the same bet.

Speaker 1

Is there anything else you wanted to say related to Michael Burry?

Michael Lewis

I would say the one other thing that's interesting about him is that he let me into his life. He just doesn't usually do that. It created an intimacy. I just really got to know him and really enjoyed hearing what he had to say.

I just learn stuff from him. Even when he doesn't make money on what everybody's making, it's really interesting to hear what he's thinking and just have that as part of the furniture in your mind.

Speaker 1

Michael Lewis' conversation with Michael Burry is coming up. It really is a very fun listen.

Michael Lewis

I still remember you handing me your emails. You had thousands of pages. You had communicated with the world your whole trading life for years through email, and so it was a real-time account of your thoughts, of Wall Street's response to your thoughts, of how the market moved. It was unbelievably valuable. It was so different from everybody reminiscing. Do you remember that?

Michael Burry

I remember that, and I think those emails were the main reason I didn't get sued by my investors. If I had been a skilled orator or somebody who loved giving conference calls, I would have done conference calls with my investors, and then maybe they wouldn't have been recorded. But here I had emails with everybody on everything, and so it was very clear where we stood with everybody.

Michael Lewis

For me, people came to the right answer in different ways, and you came to the right answer in such a satisfying way because not only did you see the irresponsibilities in the subprime mortgage market, but you actually had a theory about the timing of it—when it was all going to come unraveled.

The problem with these positions, like, “Oh, there's a lot of insanity in X or Y,” is that, yeah, you can be right, but you can be wrong for long enough that the market just takes you out of your positions.

Michael Burry

I think that's right. This is why this is The Big Short: the once-in-a-century opportunity to actually say, “I know when this is going to happen.”

Michael Lewis

Right.

Michael Burry

I've compared this to the 1990s bubble, and the reality is there was no telling when that would end.

Michael Lewis

Right.

Michael Burry

In most situations like this, there's no good way to time it, and shorting it is just a high-risk endeavor.

2. Living With The Big Short

Michael Lewis

Well, we're going to get to today, but I want to revisit The Big Short just a little bit. I'm curious what effect it had on your life. I mean, there was the trade, there was the book, and then there was the movie.

You did let Christian Bale come and hang with you for a day, but you were remarkably chill about the whole thing, and I don't think I've ever felt like I've really recapped with you what effect this thing had on you, if any.

Michael Burry

I think I didn't know. You're right. I'm on the autism spectrum, so I'm pretty good in my own head, and I'm pretty good at blocking out stuff. And so even this movie, I saw it at the premiere. I haven't watched it since. The book, I read it when it came out, and I haven't read it since.

Michael Lewis

That's how I felt about it.

Michael Burry

We just move on, and so I took it as it came. I went to the premiere because my whole family wanted to go to the premiere. And, as you know, I don't do interviews because I don't feel I'm good at this, and so I haven't done one, I think, since the 60 Minutes interview.

Michael Lewis

About The Big Short.

Michael Burry

About this, in an interview format. Now it's the 10th anniversary of the film, 15th anniversary of the book, and I can't believe it's been that long. But I just go on and do my thing, and it doesn't really affect me too much.

Michael Lewis

You didn't feel it put you in the position of oracle, that all of a sudden people are expecting you to predict the next thing?

Michael Burry

It was, as we mentioned, a very unique circumstance. It was a once-in-a-century type of trade. People say “once-in-a-century flood,” “once-in-a-century this,” “once-in-a-century that,” but it's not really true. It happens every 10 years.

Michael Lewis

Right.

Michael Burry

But this opportunity was very unique, and I've basically told everybody I can ever since that this isn't going to happen again anytime soon.

Michael Lewis

What made it unique?

Michael Burry

I was basically permitted to buy insurance on these bonds that were incredibly illiquid, and I was permitted to buy insurance and then trade and profit off them without actually having the insured item. This was not expensive. Nobody thought this could happen.

I'd put on a lot of my position by late 2005, and I got a call from Goldman Sachs saying, “What are you doing? You're the only person we know to be doing this. You're not a mortgage buyer; you're not hedging. You're doing something different.”

It wasn't something that people were generally aware of, and I was, so I could walk in and basically pull the caper off.

Michael Lewis

There are 3 things I want to talk about at the back end of your story in The Big Short, and then I want to move on to the present.

But the first is that you have this terrific win. Your investors make a lot of money, and you end up closing your fund. Can you remind me why you closed your fund?

Michael Burry

My investors were generally mad at me, and they were generally mad at me even when things went well. I didn't feel at the time that I had goodwill with anybody. There was only one investor—I shouldn't say his name, but I love him. He is the only guy who invested with me late. For that last year and a half or so, nobody came to me. Nobody wanted to invest with me.

Even when we made the money, it was, “Ooh, we don't want to go through that again.”

Michael Lewis

Huh.

Michael Burry

No. No, nobody did.

Michael Lewis

It's kind of amazing—

Michael Burry

I did—I didn't expect it either.

Michael Lewis

I know you didn't expect it, but at some point, when things had cooled off and they looked at their winnings, I would have thought someone would have called and said, “You know, sorry I got so angry at you for doing this trade.”

Michael Burry

No, nobody did.

Michael Lewis

Okay.

Michael Burry

And I didn't expect it. It's Wall Street.

Michael Lewis

When did you reopen?

Michael Burry

2013.

Michael Lewis

And since then, how have you done?

3. Rebuilding The Small Fund

Michael Burry

Done all right. I think it's all been the same since. I remember when I opened again, I didn't want investors I didn't know.

Michael Lewis

Yeah.

Michael Burry

I didn't want to be above the SEC threshold for registering as an investment adviser. I wanted to keep it small. So I just went to people I knew, along with some of my own money, and we created a fund. It was probably a situation where, if I wanted to, I could have raised billions. But that wasn't my intention.

Michael Lewis

Well, you didn't want to relive the experience you'd already had.

Michael Burry

I didn't want to deal with Wall Street. I didn't want to deal with those kinds of investors. I knew who my good investors were from the prior time, and those were the only people I wanted to deal with.

Michael Lewis

Right.

Michael Burry

And so it was just a small operation. I kept trying to keep it small, and I didn't really market it. I didn't market it at all other than to that first group. What happens with that is that some of those people who were with me in 2000—individual doctors or whatever—they get old. They actually pass away. Ultimately, it just became something; there was a natural attrition in the pool, and so it kept us small.

Michael Lewis

I have not paid that close attention. All I see is that every now and then, there's some explosion on Twitter about you.

Michael Burry

And it's wrong. They're all wrong.

4. The Filings Get It Wrong

Michael Lewis

We're gonna take a quick break, and when we return, I ask Michael Burry about why he placed bets recently against two large tech stocks, Palantir and NVIDIA.

So let's talk about this. You have this very small operation with just a handful of investors. What are the filing requirements? What do you have to hand in so that people can see what you're doing?

Michael Burry

They get to see U.S. securities traded in the U.S. that are stocks. They get to see stocks, and they get an incredibly bastardized version of what options are.

Michael Lewis

Okay. And how is it bastardized?

Michael Burry

Because say I buy 50,000 put options on Palantir, and that's 50,000 times 100, and so I'm short strike 50, way out of the money. It's like a $200 stock now, but I think it's worth $30 or less. So I buy them way out of the money, 2 years out.

Michael Lewis

You're betting that Palantir's going to drop by a lot.

Michael Burry

A lot in 2 years.

Michael Lewis

But over a long period of time.

Michael Burry

Right. And the press—I'm working out, and I see on CNBC that I have a billion-dollar short position against Palantir. It's $10 million.

Michael Lewis

I saw this, too. I couldn't believe it.

Michael Burry

So what they do is they take the underlying shares under those options contracts—

Michael Lewis

Yeah.

Michael Burry

—and they multiply it out by the current stock price. So I had an option that was actually worth less than $2, and it was being priced as if I owned the $200 stock. It was 2 orders of magnitude off.

Michael Lewis

Right.

Michael Burry

And that happens also with indexes. I would take hedges on my portfolio, and people would say, “Oh, my gosh, he's shorting a billion and a half of the S&P 500,” or, “He's shorting...” There would be these explosions, and it's just wrong. It's notional. What's interesting is that they don't do this for anybody else.

Michael Lewis

So maybe you should give more interviews. I asked you what effect The Big Short had on your life. This is an effect The Big Short had on your life.

Michael Burry

And compliance. Since the financial crisis, everything changed. In compliance, we have a compliance officer inside the firm, and he just keeps saying, “Don't talk to anybody. Don't talk to anybody. Don't respond to anybody. Don't respond to anybody.” I think since the movie came out and this really started happening, there was a frustration building in me to want to say something.

Michael Lewis

Yeah.

Michael Burry

And I couldn't. When COVID came about, I had some strong feelings on that, so I went on Twitter, but I was only allowed to talk about things that weren't stocks. That's fine, but I had to talk about social things.

Michael Lewis

Right.

Michael Burry

And I got in trouble with that, because everybody gets in trouble with that. So I got off Twitter.

Michael Lewis

But you got back on.

Michael Burry

I got back on recently because we deregistered. I don't run that pool of money anymore. I'm just going to run my own money.

Michael Lewis

Got you. So it's just your money now?

Michael Burry

Mostly, yeah.

Michael Lewis

Why did you decide to do that?

Michael Burry

I think that we're in a bad situation in the stock market. I think the stock market could be in for a number of bad years, and I think it could be a longer bear market, more akin to 2000. But the structure of the industry has changed. Back then, it was hedge funds, mutual funds, separate accounts, businesses, but there were people running pools of money and thinking about stocks and investing in stocks.

And so I felt—I didn't know I was on the autism spectrum, but I felt that I had an edge there. I could kind of sit outside of all these human psyches and figure things out, and it worked well.

Today it's all passive money, and it's a lot. It's over 50% passive money.

Michael Lewis

Index funds.

Michael Burry

Less than 10% of money, some say, is actively managed by managers who are actually thinking about the stocks in any kind of way that's long term. And so the problem is, in the United States, I think when the market goes down, it's not like in 2000, where there was this other bunch of stocks that were being ignored and would come up even if the Nasdaq crashed.

Now I think the whole thing's just going to come down, and it will be very hard to be long stocks in the United States and protect yourself. And so that's why I decided to get out of it.

Michael Lewis

Because the fund had to be long in some way?

Michael Burry

Well, I didn't want to go through that with investors again.

Michael Lewis

I see.

Michael Burry

And, of course, I closed the fund and put on all the positions for myself right away—the same positions.

Michael Lewis

So you're still in the position. So I want to talk about this position. I was watching it from a distance, but tell me what I missed. Someone at CNBC or whoever gets ahold of your 13F. On this 13F, it says your Palantir position is especially big. It looks big because the put options are way, way out of the money. They were struck at $50.

So you had to release this information about your fund. You weren't advertising it to the world in any unusual way. You weren't going out and talking trash about Palantir. You just had this position, and it gets released.

Michael Burry

Right.

Michael Lewis

And then the next thing I know, I see Alex Karp, who runs Palantir, going after you for owning puts on his stock, and I don't think—I mean, during the financial crisis, you'll remember that the head of Morgan Stanley at the time, John Mack, blamed short sellers for what was happening to him. And they banned short-selling of the stocks, I think, very briefly.

Michael Burry

Right.

Michael Lewis

But it's always a really bad sign when people start going after the short sellers. It's—

Michael Burry

In the United States, yes.

Michael Lewis

In the United States. I was thinking, Oh, my God, I just wouldn't want to be in your shoes. You didn't do anything. You just made a trade. But he's provoked me. I want to understand your trade. It's a bet that Palantir goes way, way down.

Michael Burry

Way, way down in 2 years.

Michael Lewis

What do you understand about their business that the market doesn't?

Michael Burry

My belief is that this is a company that had a set of applications that were very expensive to install because you had to hire their consultants after you bought the software, just to install it and learn it, right? And Palantir had this reputation in government. Government contracts are a nasty business, and I think they figured out how to do it and get some contracts.

Michael Lewis

How much of their revenue is government contracts?

Michael Burry

It's fallen off a lot. It was a majority, and now it's more even, because during this AI build-out, they've basically marketed themselves to corporations.

Well, corporations have come to them. The C-suites of every public corporation have board members and CEOs who feel under the gun to AI something.

Michael Lewis

Yeah. Yep.

Michael Burry

And so there's this scramble. And now they're not the only ones. They keep saying they're the only ones, but IBM does basically the same thing.

Michael Lewis

Uh-huh.

Michael Burry

Their business is actually bigger than Palantir's, and they are not really all government. Government contracts are not generally that profitable. IBM's got a really good business inside it, but it doesn't get the credit for a Palantir valuation on that business, even though it is growing fast, too. It's growing about as fast as Palantir, or was. And so let me put it this way: There are, I think, 5 billionaires who came out of Palantir because they own Palantir stock, and the revenue was basically $4 billion. So the billionaires-to-revenue ratio was greater than 1, and I'd never seen that before.

Michael Lewis

Was that what attracted your attention in the first place?

Michael Burry

Well, that was a cute little thing.

Michael Lewis

Yeah. It's cute. I was like—

Michael Burry

I was like—

Michael Lewis

Yeah.

Michael Burry

Wow. How do they get 5 billionaires out of that group? And so, out of a company that has $4 billion of revenue, stock-based compensation basically eats up almost all their income. They have to pay their people who are doing all this consulting so much in stock that they just use stock-based compensation. Then what they do is they buy that back, and the company would like you to just give them credit for it.

What Wall Street generally does is they take the earnings per share, and then they add back the stock-based compensation because it's noncash, and they add it back to the earnings. And I think, actually, the way GAAP accounts for stock-based compensation skews low versus what it actually costs. The real cost—you can look at how much companies are buying back to offset that dilution, and you can just take that amount and deduct it from cash flow. And so—

Michael Lewis

Yeah.

Michael Burry

If you do that with Palantir, historically they don't make anything. So I basically looked at the company and said, "You're worth this much, and you really don't make anything with its tiny little bit of revenue, and you have all these billionaires."

Michael Lewis

You had an argument back in 2008 for when the subprime mortgage bond market was going to start to unravel, when people were going to start to default. Do you have a timing argument for now with Palantir?

Michael Burry

Well, I think this is the AI consulting thing. Palantir and NVIDIA are the 2 luckiest companies on the planet. Neither produced a product for AI.

Michael Lewis

No, I know.

Michael Burry

But they're the 2 poster children for AI.

Michael Lewis

Yes. NVIDIA was a computer graphics chip company.

Michael Burry

NVIDIA was a computer graphics chip company. I actually knew the CFO. We talked in 2015 or 2016. I went long the stock, and I think I said, "Hey, you're doing a great job. I love how you're buying back stock." Her kids were on my kids' basketball team. I think I bought the stock like a year or 2 later. The stock went from 20 to 90 at the time, which is like 40 cents now after the splits.

NVIDIA was lucky. They got lucky once with the crypto mining because crypto mining needed GPUs. GPUs were the thing that was there that could be used; they weren't custom for crypto mining. And then AI came along, and it's the same deal. About a year and a half to 2 years ago, Palantir was not an AI company. Basically, when ChatGPT came out, they put an AI cover on their applications that they were selling and then selling all this consulting on, and they called it AI. But that's what every company is doing now.

5. The AI Bubble Builds

Michael Lewis

But is there a timing argument for AI, then?

Michael Burry

Yeah, so this gets to what does this bubble look like? This bubble looks an awful lot like the dot-com bubble, which is not really a dot-com bubble. It was a data-transmission bubble. It was a huge build-out of fiber, and fiber needed routers, and routers needed fiber, and it just blew up.

The market peaked on March 10, 2000. Cisco grew 55% that year in revenues, and it grew 17% in 2001 because the investment continued. It actually peaked for about a year after the top in the market. And so what you can do is look at net investment, which is capital expenditures less depreciation, over time, and put it against nominal GDP to compare it across eras. You get these nice mounds of investment manias.

Michael Lewis

Hmm.

Michael Burry

What you see in every prior one was that the relevant stock market peak was before you were even halfway done with the capital expenditures. In the majority of cases, the capital expenditures hadn't even peaked yet. And so right now we're ramping up for capital expenditures, and what's happened is we've gotten into this part of the phase where, if you announce a dollar of CapEx on AI, your market capitalization goes up $3 for every dollar you have. We saw that with Oracle.

Michael Lewis

Yeah.

Michael Burry

A giant company was up 40%—incredible. Larry Ellison was briefly the richest man.

Michael Lewis

Yep.

Michael Burry

Because they announced this massive, multihundred-billion-dollar spending plan that they would have to—well, they announced bookings, but they would have to spend. They're still building it out.

Michael Lewis

Where are we, then?

Michael Burry

I can't say because it hasn't happened fully yet. We are at levels of prior peaks. We're at the level of the shale revolution relative to GDP. We're near the level of the dot-com bubble, when the NASDAQ peaked.

Michael Lewis

So you felt 2-year puts—

Michael Burry

So—

Michael Lewis

Two-year puts were enough.

Michael Burry

I thought 2 years would be enough, yes. I think 2 years would be enough. If you're going to buy something now, buy health care stocks; they're really out of favor. If you own something that has gone up a lot, you've done really, really well in it, it's shooting straight up, and you think it's kind of overvalued, I think that's something you should sell.

Michael Lewis

I want to ask you one weird question about the stock market, and that is: You own Berkshire Hathaway, and Berkshire Hathaway just announced—it was just revealed that it bought a big chunk of Google stock. Did that disappoint you, or do you see how they're thinking?

Michael Burry

We don't know that Buffett bought it, for one. Two, Google is the value investor's favorite in that group. It's the one that everybody said, "Well, it's cheaper than all the others. It's got relative value," and it is Google. But I know that since I got ChatGPT and Claude, I don't use Google.

Michael Lewis

Right.

Michael Burry

And Google Search, the magic thing about Google Search was how little it cost.

Michael Lewis

Yeah.

Michael Burry

Because most requests were not monetizable. For the 85% of the searches they get where nobody's going to buy anything, it's not product-related; it's history. What did Columbus really do? It's not monetizable, and so they better not lose a lot of money on that. AI changes that. AI is expensive. I run queries regularly that I know cost tens of dollars just for 1 inquiry. Google had gotten those searches down to infinitesimal fractions of a cent.

Michael Lewis

Yeah.

Michael Burry

So that business is the golden goose, and it's really basically all their cash flow. The other thing about LLMs is that you can look back to the dot-com boom. That was an amazing telecommunications revolution. If you were alive in the '80s and then you were alive in 2000, it's nothing the same. It changed everybody's life in a dramatic way.

And still, AOL disconnected its last dial-up service just, like, a year ago, or earlier this year. I mean, the penetration was very slow in the United States. It was pretty lightning-fast in places like Singapore and Seoul—these one-city-country-type things—or very dense urban areas. But it was a long time. Even by the financial crisis, and even after the financial crisis, there were a lot of people in the United States who were not online or were on dial-up and not really doing it.

So back then, as that connectivity came up, there were a lot of things people wanted to sell. People wanted to sell goods online. They wanted to do that. Amazon grew on it. They wanted to socialize online. They wanted to do these things. With LLMs, most people are getting what they want out of them right now at the free level, and they're massively penetrated.

Michael Lewis

Right.

Michael Burry

What more are they going to do for the average person? Not that much. The money's going to be in the developer space, and there's a lot of money in that space. But this idea that a very small percentage of people want to pay for their LLM—and they won't ever have to, because this is going to be commoditized—

Michael Lewis

When we come back from the break, I finally find out why he decided to talk to me for The Big Short.

All right, I'm going to let you go in a minute, but are there a couple of other things I want to ask you about? I just want to pick your brain on them.

What triggers a debt crisis in this country? Do you pay—are you paying much attention to our government’s finances, and how do you feel about them? Where do you think it’s headed?

Michael Burry

So predicting this stuff is the problem. I always kind of put it in terms of waiting for Castro to die. It’s not a strategy. People live a long time. Countries are very powerful, and they can do a lot. The United States has the reserve currency. Obviously, Trump is bullying around the world right now, so the United States is still a very primary country. Betting that they can’t find a way is not something I’d want to do anytime soon.

I do think it’s ridiculous. We have $4.5 trillion in taxes from individuals. We have about $400 billion from corporations. You could double the taxes on corporations—that’s $400 billion. What does that do for you? We have $1 trillion in interest payments on our debt every year. When you get that trillion, that interest expense is getting up there, and then you have all the entitlements.

We do not have the social cushion that a lot of other developed countries have. But we can’t really afford doing much more than we’re doing.

Michael Lewis

So you think the debt’s just gonna keep growing and growing and growing, but you wouldn’t wanna bet when it breaks?

Michael Burry

No, you can’t—

Michael Lewis

Yeah, you can’t—

Michael Burry

Because it’s the United States.

Michael Lewis

How do you feel about Fed independence? Do you care?

Michael Burry

I think I have a kind of sick view on this: I think when Trump starts running the Fed, it might become the end of the Fed, because if he’s running the Fed, then everybody’s gonna hate it, not just me. We’ll see.

I think the Fed has done a lot of damage over the last 100 years, or since its inception in 1914, and I feel we don’t need the Fed. We don’t need it. Unless the Fed is going to say, “Look…” Why are they gonna drop rates? There’s no reason to drop rates now. Inflation’s starting to come up a little bit. The economy is muddling along.

But our neutral rate is not 1% or 0%, or where Trump wants it. Our neutral rate is probably around 4%, or it’s probably around where we are now. Think about when you drop rates: you kill all the savers, all the fixed-income people. They suffered for so long. They’re actually finally getting a rhythm to their lives again.

None of this is costless, and you think you’re gonna just drop rates? Be careful what you wish for. You might drop rates, and because of the debt situation, the curve can steepen.

Michael Lewis

Did you just say you wanna get rid of the Fed?

Michael Burry

Yeah, I think the Fed doesn’t do anything very helpful. I think it’s the easiest job in the world.

Michael Lewis

What do you replace it with?

Michael Burry

I think the U.S. Treasury could have a department that just makes these decisions. The Fed is already monetizing Treasury debt, whatever it is. I mean, they’re almost the same department already.

Michael Lewis

Does your institutional pessimism lead you to Bitcoin or gold or one of these refuges that people—

Michael Burry

I think that Bitcoin at $100,000 is the most ridiculous thing. The same people are sitting on TV talking about Bitcoin. They’re just casually saying, “It’s $100,000. It’s down. Now it’s $98,000.”

It’s not worth anything. Everybody’s accepted it. It’s the tulip bulb of our time. It’s worse than a tulip bulb because this has enabled so much criminal activity to go deep underground.

Michael Lewis

So where do you hide with your money? Do you have gold?

Michael Burry

I’ve had gold since 2005.

Michael Lewis

Okay. All right. I’m gonna let you go, but the last question I have: I never asked you this question. You let me into your kitchen. You made yourself very vulnerable, and you let me tell your story. Do you regret it?

Michael Burry

When you showed up, I knew you from Liar’s Poker, and I didn’t know what you were gonna write about me because you’re a great author. I knew you from Moneyball and The Blind Side, but when you deal with Wall Street, you tend to be fairly critical. And so I’m a big hedge fund manager who just shorted your house, so you approach me.

Actually, I got a call from a friend. You talked to, I think, one of my friends in New York, and he called me, and he said, “I just talked with Michael Lewis. Congratulations. You’re gonna be one of the heroes in his new book.” And that was when I really realized, oh, this is gonna go okay.

So in a way, I was giving you all that stuff defensively. I didn’t want you having a… I wanted to make sure you had everything—full disclosure—because I thought I didn’t do anything wrong, and I wanted you to know that.

Michael Lewis

Yeah. And your appeal to me was you were and are a fantastic teacher, like a really good explainer of your own thoughts. And your own thoughts can sometimes be peculiar, just different from what other people are thinking. And you don’t mind holding them. You don’t mind having views that would embarrass people who are less sure of themselves to articulate.

Michael Burry

Well, being on the spectrum, I’ll just move back into my own head and move along.

Michael Lewis

It was great seeing you. I’m sorry you’re not out here more. If you were out here, I wish you’d just let me know, because I’m down in your old neck of the woods some. It’d be fun to go grab dinner.

Michael Burry

We’re still out there a lot, so I’ll look forward to seeing you.

Michael Lewis

All right.

Michael Burry

Miss you.

Michael Lewis

Yeah, miss you too.

Michael Burry

All right. Take care.

Michael Lewis

Thank you, Michael.

Speaker 1

Against the Rules: The Big Short Companion is hosted by Michael Lewis. It's produced by me, Ludiji Kot, and Katherine Girardo. Our editor is Julia Barton. Our theme was composed by Nick Bertel, and our engineer is Hansdale Shi. Special thanks to Nicole Opton Bosch, Jasmine Faustino, Pamela Lawrence, and the rest of the Pushkin Audiobooks team. Against the Rules is a production of Pushkin Industries. To find more Pushkin podcasts, listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. And if you'd like to listen ad-free and learn about other exclusive offerings, don't forget to sign up for a Pushkin Plus subscription at pushkin.fm/plus or on our Apple show page. And you can get The Big Short now at pushkin.fm/audiobooks or wherever audiobooks are sold.