市场更新:就业数据火热,Memecoins更火,FOMO 的 Se 谈交易的未来
- Avi开场谈到一份火热的就业报告(失业率4.1%):交易员正在卖出黄金,并担心美联储9月加息,但他认为这些宏观噪音“某种程度上毫无意义”,因为真正的新资金正同时出于多种不同原因流入加密市场。 Bessent承诺最多动用1万亿美元保护收益率曲线长端,已经“损害了美联储的公信力”,Bitcoin和Zcash因此乘上货币贬值交易;meme币则受益于社交交易兴起;RWA通过Robinhood chain爆发,Vlad还公开与AMC CEO就代币化股票互呛。
- FOMO联合创始人Se给出的核心判断是:“无论是微观还是宏观层面,一切交易的都是注意力。” 他的例子是重仓HOOD:链上数据让他在市场注意力跟上之前,就看到了Robinhood chain收入的先机,这只股票前一天大涨约18%。目前Robinhood chain上的meme市场“相当自由”,因为打包交易、钱包女巫识别和隐藏供应量等工具还没有出现。
- FOMO的终局不是meme币,而是“有史以来意图最强的社交图谱”——一个达到Google或Facebook规模的社交平台,头部账号“生产的不是内容,而是交易”。 按Se的说法,AI能力大致每季度翻倍,内容将被商品化;稀缺资源不再是注意力,而是承担风险的资本,即“谁在公开场合判断正确,谁在押上美元”。创作者奖励两周内已发放400万美元,最高收入者拿到30万美元;相比之下,财经YouTube创作者只能赚到10万美元级别,Se估计Michael Burry或Citrini靠newsletter每年赚到8位数美元。
- Se的增长数据表明这轮上涨仍有后劲:不同于11月和1月两次“2天涨10倍、随后崩盘”的尖峰,过去60–90天的增长是每天5–10%的渐进式上行,邀请用户占比也从约60%降至约25%,显示这是一个有机、健康的图谱。 Bitcoin在约8万美元的情况下,他认为“大多数散户”要等突破历史新高才会转移注意力,这可能需要6个月到1年,意味着行情仍处于早期。
- Avi在访谈后的提醒是:FOMO有94.4%的用户亏了钱,这“说明的不是FOMO是什么,而是meme币是什么”——赌博和彩票,即便一枚与AMC相关的币能在5小时内将市值从10万美元推到1亿美元,而这是只有加密市场才能做到的事。 MemeFi通过明确机制将20%的交易量或手续费用于买入底层股票,较过去的meme币“真实得多”,但仍是“meme币版本的DAT”;Avi认为,除了MicroStrategy之外——甚至包括MicroStrategy——这类DAT都败得相当惨。
- 交易层面的结构性结论是:买龙头,不买落后者。 “别买这轮牛市里的落后者,别管它们,甚至别去想它们。” 随着链的差异被抽象掉,Trader Joe这类相对Uniswap的Beta交易不再重要,真正重要的是底层产品的使用量;如果你的判断是永续合约将席卷整个市场,就买Hyperliquid和Lighter,而不是第三层衍生资产。Avi称Lighter接近5美元,Se则在低个位数买入、3美元多卖出。想想互联网泡沫后的市场:买Uber,而不是Lyft。
- GPT-6.0发布并横扫基准测试(SanDisk涨10%、Intel涨4%),让Avi担心AI交易重新升温;集中的AI上涨可以与加密市场共存,但全面普涨“对加密市场会更糟”。 他做多Intel,认为年底能到140美元,并从周三起重新买入Nvidia;如果Bitcoin能突破8万美元、成功“打败Bart”,他认为年底可能涨到10万美元并创历史新高。
- 他的投资组合包括Bitcoin、Zcash、生物科技(ARKG、XBI)、Intel和Nvidia,认为这套组合6个月内可能上涨50–100%;Robinhood(92美元买入、现价123美元)仍是他的“多倍股”,因为它是“唯一认真对待加密货币的金融机构”。 需要关注的是认知而非数据:Pew调查显示,美国人对“火热强劲”的经济越来越悲观,这让他担心市场可能在中期选举前出现一次短暂下跌。
1. 火热的就业数据、财政部与美联储的对峙——以及Avi为何认为加息概率“毫无意义”
- Avi以一份“极其火热的就业报告”开场,失业率为4.1%;交易员正在卖出黄金,并担心美联储真的会在9月加息。此前Bessent表示可以动用最高1万亿美元保护收益率曲线长端,这意味着“财政部与美联储站到了对立面”,历史上几乎没有先例,也“严重损害了美联储的公信力”。
- 他的结论是,更高的加息概率“说实话某种程度上毫无意义,因为现在meme币正在彻底狂飙”;驱动力不是利率,而是真正的新资金正在进入加密市场。
2. 加密市场首次同时由多个独立逻辑推动上涨
- Avi的版图是:Bitcoin和Zcash(终于涨到1,000美元,并且“正在彻底拉升”)是纯粹的货币资产,受益于货币贬值交易和“货币政策不负责任”;meme币受益于FOMO等平台推动的社交交易兴起;RWA则通过Robinhood chain爆发。过去几轮周期是“加密公司服务加密用户”,而Robinhood是真正的金融机构,正在触达新一批参与者。
- Vlad与AMC的争执就是一个例证:AMC CEO Adam Aron认为,代币化证券会削弱他对公司股票的控制,并触犯证券法;Vlad的回应大意是“说真的,你到底有什么问题?”,如今“双方律师正在公开交锋”。Avi认为,Robinhood把加密货币视为金融业的下一阶段,并愿意站出来为它辩护。
3. Se的框架:“从很多角度看,我交易的其实是注意力”
- Se的HOOD交易就是这套逻辑的缩影:他重仓Robinhood,并在Robinhood上线第一天就在公司Slack里写道,如果它成为“另一条1亿美元的业务线”,链上数据就能让加密原生用户占据先机——“没有人在看链上数据来理解Robinhood的收入”。后来市场注意力追上来了,HOOD大涨约18%。“无论是微观还是宏观层面,一切交易的都是注意力。”
- Robinhood chain上的meme场景包括与股票代币结合的meme、“早期GME、AMC时代”的复刻,纯粹的meme币Cash Cat,以及作为发行平台的Ponz;关键在于“还没有太多结构性包袱”:还没人搭建隐藏钱包女巫地址、隐蔽打包交易或制造其他底层优势的工具,所以“现在感觉像一个相当自由的市场”。Robinhood团队虽然不是加密原生团队,却通过不横加干预,并在关注对象和上架项目上保持策略性,做出了“一场大师课”。
4. FOMO的起源:dYdX校友、链上摩擦,以及两年前尚不存在的基础设施
- Se自己的痛点来自链上交易经历:自2021年以来,他先后在ETH主网、Arbitrum、Tron、Sui、Sei和Solana上交易,却因为纯粹的操作摩擦,错过了Base上一笔他记作“Keto [?]”的交易——交易群里的其他人都在买,他只是懒得再设置一个钱包。
- 他的时间判断是:“即使两年前,你也无法真正打造出今天这个样子的FOMO。”当时跨链桥流动性不足,relay速度不够快,RPC无法承受负载,Privy式嵌入式钱包要么几乎不存在,要么还没有赢得信任。
- 团队成员来自dYdX,Se称其为“Hyperliquid出现之前的Hyperliquid”:大约在1.5–2年内拿下90%的市场份额,创造10亿美元收入。但它面向机构用户和一批高频交易者,而“你没法真正把永续合约展示给你的母亲或妹妹”。
- 真正的顿悟来自Moonshot:它证明有一批规模可观的主流用户需要这种产品;而流失问题定义了产品方向。用户因为Moo Deng很可爱而买入,赚了钱,“然后呢?要么因为不知道下一步买什么而流失,要么买下一堆完全不了解的东西,把钱全部亏掉。”答案必须是社交化的,因为“交易从本质上就是社交行为”。
5. 为什么要公开仓位?边做边学,以及交易规范的变化
- Avi从传统金融出发提出质疑:在他过去的世界里,“我们对自己的仓位非常保密”;但在FOMO上,每个人都能看到每一笔买卖。如果你赚了100万美元,再卖出20万美元,“所有人都可能抢跑你”。那为什么还要这么做?
- Se的回答从教学逻辑展开:“你想学打篮球,不会先读10本书、看一部Michael Jordan纪录片……你会直接上场。”很多人在真正锻炼投资能力之前,就已经被市盈率、市值等概念难住;社交化让市场变得更容易接近,也“抬高了参与上限”。
- 他通过朋友Fred Wilson讲述规范变化:Wilson曾经错过Airbnb和Uber,因为“我为什么要坐陌生人的车?”如今这已经成为社会共识。交易也一样:既然可以“建立社交存在感、个人资料和品牌,并随着时间变现”,为什么还要隐藏自己持有什么?Se把它与更广泛的自我教育趋势联系起来——肽类疗法、Claude、对现有系统的不信任,以及“越来越愿意跳出系统”。
6. Se在秘密山寨币上交易FOMO,并解释什么是“trenching”
- 对不了解的人而言,trenching就是“把传统交易周期压缩100倍左右”:周期缩短到小时甚至分钟,有些人会在60秒内完成同一枚币的进出。Se把这类交易留给那些每天16小时坐在电脑前的人,因为赢家拥有更好的基础设施、更快的计算机和更多信息。人们被加密市场吸引,是因为它教会人持有DOGE、SHIB和Bitcoin,而不是进行60秒的抛硬币游戏。
- Se自己的风格是“寻找好的位置”:他在低个位数买入Lighter,在3美元多卖出;还做过一次从35美元开始上涨的HYPE波段。他交易的是一枚山寨币,排行榜大约第200名,在meme币上赚了约40万美元,正是因为作为FOMO联合创始人,他不应“制造叙事,或把某些东西包装成好或坏”。“一旦有人知道,我就会删掉账号,可能重新开始。”
7. 创作者奖励:让1,000个Roaring Kitty靠交易记录变现,而不是靠newsletter
- 这套经济模型已经开始运转:创作者奖励两周内发放了400万美元,最高收入者拿到30万美元,“只是做了他在这套机制出现之前每周一直在做的事”。Se把meme币视为切入口:潜在meme交易者只有几亿,但拥有金融观点的人有数十亿,“对我们来说,其中一个市场显然更令人兴奋”。
- 转换到股票市场,愿景是这样的:优秀的财经YouTuber在帮助很多人成为百万富翁甚至赚得更多的同时,自己只能赚到10万美元级别;而在FOMO上,“如果你是世界上最好的股票分析师,能否真正靠此每月赚100万美元”,收入来自公开交易记录,而不是付费课程。Burry和Citrini“现在大概每年靠newsletter变现8位数美元”;但想象一下,不必先成为《The Big Short》中的人物。“想象Roaring Kitty在GME事件发生时就在FOMO上……想象1,000个Roaring Kitty。”
8. 终局:当AI让内容商品化,承担风险的资本成为真相来源
- Se提出的最大胆判断,也是公司早期的核心假设:AI“能力大约每个季度翻倍”,内容会变得如此充足且优质,以至于“稀缺资源不再是注意力……现在需要另一种真相来源,我认为那会是资本,是风险,是谁在公开场合判断正确、谁在押上美元”。最终平台上的头部人物“生产的不是内容,而是交易”,形成“有史以来意图最强的社交图谱”,目标规模是Google或Facebook级别。
- FOMO目前的用户主要是全新的投资者——“有些人会说,这是我第一次投资任何东西”。平台设计也经过刻意安排:“我们不是庄家,不是发行平台,也不是AMM……用户能够长期留存符合我们的最大利益。”Robinhood的人曾告诉他,他们“天真地认为,存入100美元的人最终会变成百万富翁……但几乎从未发生”;而在FOMO上,带着几百美元入场的用户,确实有人通过观察和实践变成了百万富翁。Se引用Tulip King的一条推文:每天看Michael Jordan打球不会让你成为球员,但实时观察顶级交易者或许可以;他称这是“世界上第一个具有反身性的社交图谱”,用户只要交易,就能从消费者变成创作者。话说得很谨慎:“我们仍不确定它能否规模化实现。”
9. 公开盈亏的阴暗面,以及修复它所需的工具
- Se没有回避抢跑问题,但他进行了反转:“既然它是在公开场合上涨的,就应该在公开场合下跌。”如果别人因为你的交易获得信念,那么退出也应当公开;总体而言,群体最终会处于更有利的位置,而声誉风险可能迫使大账户更谨慎地选择买入标的。他也清楚社交图谱不会自动完成自我纠偏——“总会有新用户进来”——所以平台必须“保持中立,但提供足够的工具”。
- 目前已有的具体工具包括平均持仓时间,用来处理交易周期错配。他举例说:你复制他“持有Bitcoin 10年”的买入,10年后回来,却发现“你在第6个月就卖掉了”。一个正在讨论的想法是,根据押在交易建议背后的美元规模来为创作者打分,让投入10万美元买家的反馈权重高于投入1美元买家的反馈——“100分里拿到56分……90分代表意图良好、总能判断正确;20分代表恶意行为者,不要跟随”。
- Avi也承认自己有过同样的问题:听众曾经在他卖出某项资产后继续持有,因此他现在会为提到的每项资产说明时间周期——“3个月后他们来问我,我已经完全忘了……我两个半月前卖掉的那个东西?”
10. 这轮上涨还有后劲吗?渐进式增长给出肯定答案,但Avi提醒94.4%的亏损率
- Se梳理了公司历史上的3次增长事件。11月和1月的走势都很尖锐——“2天涨10倍”,涨得快、跌得也快,主要由1、2枚币推动。大约从6月开始,增长变得“渐进式……每天都上涨5–10%”,Dune面板上可以清楚看到;邀请用户占比也从约60%(来自X、TikTok)降至约25%,Se认为这可能是图谱健康、有机增长的信号。持续性取决于这些游戏是否会被“破解”——“这有点像做市,如果到了那一步,其他人为什么还要参与?”Bitcoin在约8万美元时,他认为“大多数散户不会在Bitcoin突破历史新高之前转移注意力”,这可能需要6个月,也可能需要1年。
- Avi在访谈后给出的制衡信息是:FOMO上有94.4%的人交易亏损——“这不是对FOMO这款应用的说明,而是对meme币的说明”,因为那就是赌博。但AMC的推文曾让一枚币在5小时内从10万美元市值涨到1亿美元——“其他任何地方都不可能发生这种事……只有加密市场能迅速对获得注意力的事件做出反应。”
- MemeFi的机制是,将交易量或手续费的20%用于买入底层代币化股票;它“仍然完全是一张彩票式的赌博,但至少比过去的meme币真实得多……本质上就是meme币版本的DAT”。Avi表示,他讨论的这些DAT,除了MicroStrategy之外都败得相当惨——“而MicroStrategy其实也相当惨”。更大的变化在于,Hyperliquid、Lighter和pump.fun这些真正产生收入的应用“赚得盆满钵满”,让市场开始“渴望现实”,不再像2021年那样只押注“未来可能发生什么”。
11. GPT-6.0、打败Bart,以及只买龙头
- 据OpenAI称,GPT-6.0发布后“全面碾压各项基准测试”,Avi尚未使用;SanDisk上涨10%,Intel上涨4%。他做多Intel,认为年底能到140美元,但AI交易重新升温令他不安:Intel、SanDisk、Nvidia和部分超大规模云厂商的集中上涨可以与加密市场共存;如果形成全面泡沫——“SK Hynix两周翻倍,韩国股市疯狂上涨”——“对加密市场会更糟”。他在周三重新买入Nvidia。
- 图表层面的判断是:突破8万美元后,“我们就打败Bart了”。这是他对摆脱典型熊市形态的说法——上涨、盘整、崩盘,走势像Bart Simpson的脑袋——这将“在人们心中确认加密市场进入了新时代”,年底可能触及10万美元和新的历史高点。他偏多,但也强调:“我看多不代表你就应该全仓。”
- 结构上,Beta交易的重要性下降了。2021年Uniswap上涨时,Trader Joe这个“纯粹的Uniswap克隆品”在Avalanche宣布推出兼容EVM的区块链后直线上涨;如今链已经被抽象化,真正重要的是底层产品的使用量。“如果你的判断是永续合约将席卷整个世界,就买Hyperliquid和Lighter。不要去寻找第三个疯狂资产……不要买排名第50的资产,指望它补涨。”他的互联网泡沫类比是:买Uber,不要买Lyft——“Lyft就是一家糟糕透顶的公司。”
12. Robinhood这只多倍股,以及要关注认知而非数据
- Robinhood从他92美元的买入价涨到123美元,仍然是他的高确信度持仓:“Robinhood可能以一种自Interactive Brokers以来前所未见的方式吞噬整个金融业。”Interactive Brokers创始人Thomas Peterffy身价1050亿美元,是“你从没听说过的最富有的人……这就是金融基础设施能创造的财富”。按年化计算,chain收入可以为净利润增加20–25%,但他预计交易手续费会先出现“巨大下滑”,之后才会依靠代币化和稳定币实现可持续重建;当前真正被计入估值的,是Robinhood作为“唯一认真对待加密货币的金融机构”这一点。
- 问答环节的收尾主题包括:他的货币资产组合不会改变——“Zcash、Monero和Bitcoin……这是我唯一会在乎的货币资产”,其中受保护的ZEC使用量正在增长。他表示,Pew调查显示美国人越来越不相信经济“火热强劲”,认为经济“良好或优秀”的民众比例较几个月前下降约12%;他认为这主要受汽油价格、伊朗战争和对AI导致失业的担忧影响,“尽管这种失业实际上并没有发生”。这让他担心市场可能在中期选举前出现短暂下跌。他的组合是Bitcoin、Zcash、ARKG、XBI、Intel和Nvidia,“我认为这套组合6个月内可能上涨50%、100%”。
- 他给出的trench训练方法是:准备一个记事本,反复训练条件反射——“对任何一条新闻、任何一条推文,都问自己:我怎么能从中赚钱?”AMC CEO发推谈代币化时,就去判断它会影响AMC、Robinhood,还是某枚meme币。“这是一种心理上的重复训练。”
完整逐字稿
AI is getting better every single quarter, right? The scarce resource is no longer attention because now there’s so much interesting content. It’s all so good. AI is commoditizing it entirely.
Now you need something else to use as a source of truth, which I think is going to be capital. It’s going to be risk. It’s going to be who is right publicly, who is staking dollars, and who has been able to validate their thesis in real time over time.
Now you create this new social graph where the top people at this platform are not producing content, but they’re producing trades. It’s the highest-intensity social graph that will ever exist.
We have such a fun show today because there’s a lot happening in the market, whether it’s macro, crypto, meme coin trading, or Zcash absolutely ripping—finally at $1,000. That’s been totally nuts. I’ve got all my notes here, my legal pad.
This is going to be more of an interactive show than normal because it’s just me talking to the camera. Unfortunately, Jonah isn’t here. I’m sorry for all of you watching on YouTube, but the thumbnail is a lie: I don’t have a mustache anymore. I’m fully clean-shaven.
I’ve got the suit ready so I can talk about meme coins while looking like I know what I’m doing. You’ve got your fellow unc here to talk to you about what’s happening in the markets.
We started off today pretty well with a super-hot jobs report. That was really great. You see unemployment at 4.1%, and economic data is coming in great, leading traders to sell gold and get a little bit nervous about whether the Fed is actually going to hike in September.
This has been interesting to see. As you all know, last month, in August—maybe 2 weeks ago at this point—Bessent came out and basically said that he could spend up to $1 trillion to protect the long end. This is obviously not what the Fed wants to see. It’s putting the Treasury at odds with the Federal Reserve, which we haven’t really seen too much of in history.
I think what that did was really damage the credibility of the Fed, and this jobs data is going to make it even harder for the market—and for rates specifically—not to react to that data. I think the probability of a hike is obviously higher now, but honestly, that kind of means nothing because what’s happening right now is that meme coins are going absolutely ballistic. Crypto is going absolutely ballistic, and it’s all because I think we’re genuinely seeing new money flow into the space for a variety of different reasons.
What’s kind of fun is that, for the first time in a very long time, we’re actually seeing a variety of different reasons for crypto going up. When it comes to Bitcoin and Zcash, these are just monetary assets, and you’re seeing them go up because of the debasement trade. You’re seeing them go up because of what is deemed monetary irresponsibility.
You’re seeing social coins and meme coins do really well because of the rise of social trading. You have platforms like FOMO, which we’re going to talk about in a second, really drawing in new players into the game. They’re doing an amazing job with marketing, bringing in people who weren’t in crypto before and are now trading crypto.
On the RWA side, you’re seeing an explosion from Robinhood Chain, which honestly, guys, I love seeing happen. I think in previous bull runs, we had this issue where everyone was always playing within the confines of crypto. Every now and then, you’d get a floodgate of people running into crypto and speculating on Solana or Base, but at the end of the day, these were crypto companies serving crypto users.
Now we have a chain that is effectively a traditional institution. I’m going to call Robinhood an institution—I know that sounds funny—but it really is now. It’s embedded in the traditional financial system, and it’s able to reach a new set of market participants.
Vlad is standing behind this chain. You saw this morning that he got into a little bit of a tiff with the AMC CEO. AMC CEO Adam Aron basically came out and said, “Hey, I don’t think that tokenized securities are smart. You’re taking away my ability to control my stock. You’re running afoul of securities laws. You’re making things in the financial system scarier and more dangerous for people.”
Vlad basically came back and said, “Seriously, what is your issue? I really don’t think you know what’s going on.” Now their lawyers are publicly going at it, and that is just really, really funny to see.
The key takeaway here is that Robinhood views crypto as the next stage in finance, and they’re willing to step up to bat and defend it, even though right now what we’re mostly seeing is meme coins popping off. I think everybody knows that’s going to change in the future, and we’re going to get an absolute explosion of tokenized stocks and activity that really blends crypto and TradFi.
1. Everything Is Attention: Se From FOMO
Before we get into that, we do have a really special guest here, the co-founder of FOMO. We’ve got Se joining us. Se, welcome to the stream. I’m super happy to have you. It has been an amazing week for FOMO.
Yeah, thanks for having me, man. I wish I had the view you had going on back there, but things are good.
I’ve got to convince people to take me seriously, so you’ve got to win.
We’ve got an office here in New York. That’s the Statue of Liberty right there. I found that you kind of need to incentivize yourself to come into the office, and this is how I do it.
I’ve actually been tuning in for one of the first times. I’ve listened to the pod, but I haven’t heard the macro market news stuff, and this is awesome. I’ll definitely be back.
I appreciate that. It’s been fun. We’ve been doing this pod for 3 years. We started as a crypto-exclusive pod—that’s all we talked about—and now we bring in a lot of macro and a lot of TradFi as well.
It’s really because the worlds are colliding right now in a way that we haven’t really seen before. That’s actually what I wanted to start off by talking to you about. You tweeted something recently specifically saying, “As I’ve been trading more equities, I’ve realized that basically the entire market is attention.”
I wanted to give you a platform to talk about that a little bit more. What did you mean? What are you seeing in markets in general that makes you say everything is about attention?
I think that as advanced as capital markets are—even in traditional equities—I do feel like there are probably fragmented buckets of attention that go on across different things, whether it’s memes, PRI, crypto, financial services, banks, or whatever.
In particular, the case I was describing was that I was trading on Robinhood. That’s actually where I keep a lot of my funds. I was buying some stocks, and I was in a place where I thought, “Okay, I’m going to just go all in on HOOD.” The core reason for that was sequencer revenue.
I have a post in my company Slack from the first day Robinhood launched where I said, “Hey, if they get this to become another $100 million business line and they’re able to monetize this flow well, we have an edge here.” People aren’t looking at on-chain data to understand, “What is Robinhood’s revenue? What is going to increase this over the next 1 to 3 months, 6 months, et cetera?” I think that’s an edge that we have.
In a lot of ways, I’m trading attention. I’m trading whether the right people—the people who are actually moving money in size in this market—are looking at things like this. Probably not. They might be looking at prediction markets on Robinhood. They might be looking at meme stocks. They might be looking at XYZ.
I do think that this is an area of the world where we, as crypto traders, have a little bit more sharpness when it comes to the details. In some ways, the attention caught up, and you saw Robinhood rip 18% or whatever yesterday. I think the world is still a little bit behind on what this looks like, but in some ways, everything is trading attention, whether it’s on a micro or macro scale.
Now, it’s been really amazing to see. Back in 2021, we used to say that crypto would become more like the equity markets, and now I think the equity markets have become more like crypto.
You’re seeing narratives play out on the order of 3 to 6 months. Obviously, you had that massive AI trade that came off a ton. It was just because people were really excited about all the frontier models that were coming out.
2. Why You Couldn't Build FOMO Two Years Ago
Now it seems like crypto has really taken the attention away from the rest of the equity markets, actually driving the equity markets in some fashion. The new hot thing at the moment—Robinhood Chain—has really taken over FOMO trading volumes, you would say, right? Are you seeing that? Tell me what you’re seeing in the world of FOMO. What are people interested in these days?
Yeah, I think Robinhood Chain has kind of taken on its own DNA. I think you’ve mentioned this, but they’re starting to pair a lot of different things, right? It’s not just pure memes.
There are now memes based off stock-token pairs. There are memes that are, I would say, throwing it back to the old GME, AMC, etc. days. I think there's just a different set of things that people are paying attention to. Cash Cat is just a plain meme. Ponz is a launchpad.
There's not a lot of overhang here, right? People haven't had time to develop sophisticated tools to hide different wallet sybils, bundle these things discreetly, or figure out the mechanisms that can actually give them an underlying advantage. So right now, it feels like a pretty free market. That's where a lot of the attention is, I think.
In a lot of ways, the Robinhood team's job has been to stay out of the way and be very tactical about when they engage, whether it's a follow or a listing. I would like to say they're pretty much doing a master class in not being super crypto-native.
Yeah, I want to take a step back for a second and talk about the birth of FOMO and how you decided that we needed a social trading platform. Social trading obviously had some companies in the traditional markets, like Webull, try to tackle this, but it never really seemed to take on a life until FOMO.
I'm curious: you started FOMO a little over a year ago at this point. Were you raising a little over a year ago? What was the initial genesis of the idea, and what was the gap in the market that you were trying to address?
I think it's useful to take a step back and talk about my personal background. I spent a lot of time trading on-chain from 2021 onward—ETH mainnet into all the EVMs, from Arbitrum to Tron, Sui, Sei, Solana, pretty much everything. There was an opportunity to trade across all these chains.
Obviously, as crypto-native people, we know it's already pretty difficult to go from chain to chain. There's a lot of mental friction. I missed out on Keto [?] on Base despite everybody else in my trading chat trading it because I didn't want to set up a Base wallet. I didn't want to think about another thing to manage and secure, and all these things.
I think that was a fundamental thing that needed to be solved generally through cross-chain trading. But I also think that even 2 years ago, you couldn't really build FOMO as it looks today. There wasn't enough liquidity across different bridges. Relay wasn't fast enough. The RPCs probably couldn't handle the loads at the same scale across all these chains. Privy and embedded wallets didn't really exist and weren't super trusted.
3. 94.4% Of People Lose Money
There were a lot of things that led to this not being possible until, let's say, a year and a half ago. I even think today we're still at the cutting edge of whether all the general-purpose infrastructure can take care of all the load coming in from retail and from people across the crypto space.
The genesis story is that a lot of us spent a lot of time together working at dYdX, where, for lack of better words, it was like Hyperliquid before Hyperliquid, right? It had 90% of the market share and did a billion in revenue in about a year and a half to 2 years. It was kind of one of the first mainstream tokens that did an airdrop after Uniswap that really got a lot of people interested in that model.
There were a lot of things that went wrong, but we came from that background where we built for institutional users and a specific group of high-volume traders. Then we took a step back and said, "All right, this was a great experience, but you can't really show your mother or your sister perps, right? What is this order book? What are all these advanced orders? What does funding rate mean?"
It just wasn't ready for the world, and I think it's getting to be the point where it is now. But we needed an experience where it was very easy to understand memes, right? There's a cute hippo, there's this narrative, this event happens, but there's not an easy way to trade them.
Right around the time we started ideating, Moonshot actually started to take off. I credit them because they were the first mainstream apps to get a meaningful user group on board. Then Phantom obviously followed in a very different way.
I think that was the aha moment for us: "Okay, people do want to do this thing. It's still pretty difficult despite how easy it may seem to us, so we need to create a better experience here." Better meant social.
It meant social because you think about the user journey: You come onto Moonshot or another app, you buy Moo Deng, and you make a lot of money because you think it's cute and everybody agrees. Then what? You either churn because you have no idea what to buy next, or you buy a bunch of things that you have no idea or context on, and then you end up churning afterward because you lose all your money.
We needed this social layer, which I think CT has done a really good job of putting together in some ways, whether it's in public or in different chats. You need this layer where people can express their views. You can find these people directly on the platform you're trading on. You can understand their thesis over time. Maybe eventually you can even comment and ask them questions.
You need this social graph because trading is inherently social. I think there's been this broader stigma around publicizing positions or doing things in public because your friends or coworkers might find out. I think the world itself is shifting toward this new paradigm where people are taking a lot more liberty, putting themselves out there a little bit more, and trusting systems less.
They want things like meme coins, stocks, options, perps, or prediction markets to find their own financial liberty. I know that was a long-winded answer, but that's the general thought process.
No, that's good, but it also hits on something that I think a lot of people, especially if they're not from the world of crypto, don't really understand: What are you talking about when you describe trading as a social game?
If you look at TradFi, when I was in that world, we were very private about our positions. We didn't want people to know what was going on. We didn't want people to understand our strategies, right?
If you have a public account on FOMO, people can see every trade. They can see every buy and every sell. If you run up a million bucks and then sell $200,000 of it, you have $800,000 left, but everyone might front-run you.
That didn't really make sense to me until I signed up for FOMO and started to understand why people might do this. From your perspective, why do you think social trading is so important? Maybe with meme coins, but is it important for other things? Is it important for perp trading? Is it important for long-term investing? Is it important for anything outside of meme coins, or are meme coins just a social trading game?
4. Why Trading Is Inherently Social
No, I think it's important for everything, right? Think about the core of how markets go up over time: You need more inflows, more attention, and more interest. I think it's naive to think that the world has captured enough retail interest and enough normal-person interest for it to be massively widespread.
Your average, median person probably doesn't invest. If they do, they invest very little in their 401(k), indices, and things like that. But I think the reason why this needs to exist is that people learn by doing, right?
An analogy is that if you want to learn how to play basketball, you're not going to read 10 books, watch a Michael Jordan documentary, and look at shooting-form videos, and then go do it 6 months later. You're just going to go do it, right? I think trading and investing are very similar, even though they're very different in form and function.
A lot of people are stumped by the fact that they need to learn P/E ratios, market caps, relative value, and all these things, and then they never end up investing. They never actually exercise the muscle and do it.
If you buy stock because your friend, who you think is smart, bought Tesla, or you position in the SpaceX IPO because everybody's talking about it, those are social things. That's how the market and the world work.
Being able to create a wedge and let people find a little more enjoyment and a lot more relatability is actually a good thing, because at the end of the day, you have more people investing and more people coming into capital markets. I think this is really the only way you can raise the ceiling and outpace the growth of, let's say, the economy or GDP at the end of the day.
Yeah, I think a lot of it is also that you have a complete change in culture, right? You have more people on social media, more people willing to broadcast their lives, willing to show you what it looks like.
I mean, there is this entire sector of society that's just inside the life of a meme coin king. They're making millions of dollars and explaining to people exactly how they do it. There seems to be, I would say, almost a newfound benefit in broadcasting your positions. You've seen other streamers talk about the fact that traders of the future are going to be celebrities, and there's now a benefit to sharing your P&L in a way that there wasn't before.
When you log on to FOMO, you can see the leaderboard right there. For me, look, I'm an anon now. I have just started trading meme coins again. I think the last time I touched meme coins was 2 years ago, as I've said.
So when I signed up for FOMO, I was thinking, how do I even start looking at meme coins? How do I even figure out what the hell is hot and what people are interested in? The easiest way is to just click on the leaderboard and see what all these big guys who seem to, quote unquote, know what they're doing are actually up to. That was a big unlock for me, which is interesting to see.
Was that where you started? Were you like, “We're just going to start with a leaderboard”? Or how did you—what was the first thing that you built with FOMO, actually?
Yeah, so if you look at FOMO's first version, you'd actually be surprised to see that it's very similar to what exists today. The only difference is maybe a different skin because we've done a brand revamp, and now there's multichain. But the leaderboard has always existed, the feed has always existed, the homepage and profile have always existed. Maybe the referrals tab was a little more visible, but that's kind of the core thing that we set out to do.
When you spend all day thinking about something, the vision expands, right? Sure, it's expanded beyond a multichain trading platform of crypto assets with social to something much bigger and broader, and we can touch on those things as well. But I think that for us, this is exactly where we wanted to be. This is where we thought the market was headed.
It's funny you talk about cultural shifts—what people are used to or what people are willing to do—because Fred Wilson is a good friend of ours. He talks about how he initially passed on Airbnb and Uber because it's like, “Why would I get into a car with a stranger? Why do I want a stranger to live in my house?” Now you think about it, and that's just a societal norm.
It's similar with trading. Why would I tell anybody what I own? Well, I can leverage this, build a social presence, a profile, a brand, and monetize this over time, instead of it being completely reliant on whether I'm going to be able to read the market right or wrong. I think this is just a shift that's happening in the world, not just with trading, but with other trends like health care and things like access.
These are just things that we're starting to see the world get more comfortable with. Five years ago, people would look at you if you mentioned a peptide and say, “That's for bodybuilders. Why would I inject this foreign thing into my body?” But now it's, “Wait, I'm getting a little more educated. I have Claude, and I can learn what the gaps are in my health system that my doctor isn't actually giving me good advice about, and I can go do the thing.”
There's a lot more liberty and a lot more willingness to break out of the system and self-educate. I think that's a general positive trend, even though it might seem odd to people from different generations.
Yeah, I'm curious: do you trade on FOMO? Do you punt meme coins? What's your process for evaluating them?
Yeah, I've always traded on-chain. That's where most of my personal wealth has come from.
Most of your personal wealth has come from punting meme coins on-chain? That's amazing.
It is. Yeah.
You're kind of the perfect person to build this, then.
Exactly. I've pretty much been taking a break through most of the bear market. I don't like trenching. I think that's something I'll leave to the people who are at the computer 16 hours a day.
Sorry, can we define what trenching is?
Yep.
For those who don't know, what's the difference between trenching and punting meme coins?
Let's take your traditional time frames and compress them by 100x. Trenching would be like day trading, right? Instead of it being intraday, it's almost like intra-hour or intra-minute. Some people are trading the same coin in and out within 60 seconds, right? You're compressing that time frame by an order of magnitude.
For myself, I like to find good spots, and that might be what people would call investing or long-term holds. In crypto, maybe that's only a few days, a few weeks, or a few months. It's not weeks, months, or years, but it's kind of analogous to that.
Not everybody's going to day trade, and not everybody's good at trenching. I think the people who are going to win most of the time in trenching have superior infrastructure. They have more knowledge, more information, faster computers, whatever it might be. You're seeing a lot of the gaming crowd do this, and it's honestly not something that most of the world enjoys.
You think about why people have been interested in crypto, even going back half a decade: it's because they've learned to hold, right? DOGE, SHIB, Bitcoin—these are things that generally went up over time, and that's what's drawing the most interest. It's not, “Come into this coin for 60 seconds and maybe you make money, maybe you don't.”
That's something I stay away from. I like to find spots, and they're not always meme coins. I was in Lighter, probably in the low ones, and just sold that at like $3-something. There's also HYPE, which I did a swing trade or medium-term hold on from around $35 upwards. These are also scenarios that I found myself in, but there are also a number of meme coins.
Right now, I'm trading on an alt account, mainly because I don't want myself, as one of the FOMO co-founders, to create narratives or spin certain things as good or bad. I'm probably number 200 on the leaderboard. I think I'm up like $400,000 trading meme coins.
Oh, so your alt—do people know? Is this an open secret, or are we going to have to dig for it? Do people in the chat right now—
No, nobody knows.
Find your alt?
Yeah, nobody knows.
Nobody knows.
I'm very careful about how I position it when I post it. The minute I think anybody knows, I'll delete the account and probably start again. I use FOMO because it's a great platform for me to trade, and if I were building up a social presence and profile, I could do that here if I weren't a co-founder of FOMO or affiliated with the team or whatever.
It's been great because I get to dog-food my own product. I get to use it every day, and that kind of materializes into different parts of product feedback.
Right now, FOMO is really, I think, a meme coin platform. People consider it the place where you go to uncover on-chain gems and punt things. Is that the extent of the vision, or what's next for you, if there is anything? I mean, look, you guys are making $1 million a day. You could just print money and run this forever and think meme coins are the future.
Yeah, I think for us, it's never really been about the money. It's always been about the impact. If you think about the number of people who are going to trade meme coins or adjacent coins, that's maybe a few hundred million people, versus the person who's going to invest in something or have an opinion financially, which is probably in the billions. One market is a lot more exciting to us than the other.
For us, we view this as a wedge, right? You solve a problem in the market, you create a user base, you create a social graph, and then you start to think about how we actually build on top of this in different directions.
One of the things we're most excited about is how we start to bridge the gap between all the tokenization infrastructure that's coming online for equities, the social graph we've built, and the actual incentive model that exists within FOMO.
We launched creator rewards. It's similar to YouTube or Twitter, where you perform an action, provide value to the social graph—whatever that means—and then you get rewarded. Some of these guys—we've paid out $4 million in 2 weeks. The top guy has made $300,000 just doing the same thing that he had done every week before this existed.
That's incredibly powerful because now you're incentivized to continue to provide social value. You develop a stickiness to the platform, and you develop an identity.
There are all these things that I think social graphs do particularly well that nobody's quite done in finance. But let's transpose that into equities, for example. If I am a big YouTuber and all I've done is create great value, YouTube has paid me low six figures a year. I've made a lot of people millionaires, decamillionaires, maybe even centimillionaires, but I haven't been able to monetize because I don't want to do a paid course, paid group, or newsletter. Those things don't feel right to me.
5. 4M In Creator Rewards & A Thousand Roaring Kittys
What if I can just do this publicly? I can trade publicly, give you all my theses, commentary, and insights in real time, and in return I get creator rewards. I get paid for the value I'm providing to the platform, which is going to be many orders of magnitude more than we get on YouTube. On YouTube, you're compartmentalized into one group, which is finance YouTube. There's some payout available, and you get some of it.
Versus on FOMO, what if you could actually monetize and make $1 million a month because you're the best equity analyst in the world and you're doing this where people find value? Now you have a career that's separate from your YouTube content. I think you see this already happening with really big names like Michael Burry or Citrini. These guys probably monetize 8 figures a year from their newsletters today.
But imagine you had the opportunity to do that, and you're not a big account, and you're not in The Big Short. You can actually do this for your track record. It's something that I think will be incredibly powerful, and you get to this place where you're asking, "Why would you trade anywhere else?"
Yeah, no, I think that's actually a big issue generally with financial influencers: It's very difficult to figure out if they're actually good or not because you don't see their P&L. There are a couple of services that I've signed up for where the people will retweet one of their picks, and then you'll buy their service and sign up for it, and you realize they have 450 things in their portfolio. You're just like, "Guys, everything else is down. You just retweeted the one thing that's up."
You don't actually know how much money they've made. How are you thinking about expanding that part of FOMO? I know you guys produce really fun content. I've seen a bunch of it around, but it's all geared toward the trenchers and the meme coin flippers.
Are you thinking that you're going to start moving into that world to try to get people to trade equities on your platform, trade perps on your platform, or get big names? What would be really cool at some point is if you get a big hedge fund to actually sign up for FOMO. Or even a medium-sized hedge fund could be kind of interesting.
Yeah.
Could be kind of interesting.
Yeah, exactly. That's where we want to head. The premise of most of the content that's being put out today is twofold. One is education, and one is aspirational content. It's like, "Hey, this guy made $10 million. It was done in public. Every single buy was notified to your phone, and you could have been in the same shoes."
I think that does not carry over for equities. Imagine Roaring Kitty was on FOMO when the GME stuff happened. Everybody was watching, everybody signed up, and everybody was interested. I think it's that, but imagine 1,000 Roaring Kitties. It might not be the same order of magnitude of publicity, but there are going to be people who are so good at their craft. Once they develop an identity and a brand, and we talk about traders as new celebrities, I think that's still in the very early stages.
I might be going off the rails here, but one thing—
No, no. That's actually the whole point. This is a Friday stream. We can go off the rails and talk about whatever the hell we want.
Yeah, but one of the core early theses that we have is that AI is getting better every single quarter. It's roughly doubling in its capabilities every quarter, let's say, quarter over quarter. It's going to get to a point where it's so easy to produce content that, in this era of social media platforms—we're in the interest graph right now, which is the content itself, not the person—you have the opportunity to go viral no matter if you're a small account or a new person creating content for the first time. You have the opportunity, with the algorithm, to go viral.
I think what ends up happening is that the scarce resource is no longer attention, because now there's so much entertaining content, and it's all so good. AI is commoditizing it entirely. Now you need something else to view as a source of truth, which I think is going to be capital. It's going to be risk. It's going to be who is right publicly, who is staking dollars, and who has been able to validate their thesis in real time over time.
Now you create this new social graph where the top people on the platform are not producing content, but producing trades and education. It's the highest-intent social graph that will ever exist because these people already have funds on your platform, which is incredibly difficult for most platforms to do. Second, they're intent-based because they're going to use that money to trade, earn, or do whatever else. Third, you have a value where you can argue that each follower is so much more meaningful than everybody else because it's intent-based.
This is where we see the world going when it pertains to what the next biggest social media platform in the world could be. It's obviously very far off from the initial vision of a cross-chain trading application, but it's something where I think we can get to the scale of, hopefully, a Google or Facebook at the end of the day.
I mean, that would be pretty unbelievable. I've always had an issue with platforms like Facebook and Instagram because of the way they generate attention. I think a lot of it is extremely superficial. That's one thing I loved about Twitter/X: I grew my account specifically by producing educational content for crypto and trading, giving people frameworks for how they should approach the market.
This is taking it another step. But obviously, there are drawbacks to this. As you generate a huge following and attention, instead of being right and then making money, you can actually just create the money. If you already have a large track record and you launch a coin or go do something, you can start to monetize your audience in a way that wasn't really available to you before.
I'm wondering if you view that as a positive or a drawback. How do you feel about it? Today, for example, with this meme thing that just went viral with AMC, there was a lot of talk that all of these influencers were in really early and actually caused the thing to go up, versus the thing going up on its own without them.
I'm curious if you see any drawbacks to the social-trading aspect, and if so, how would you tackle that?
Yeah, one of the drawbacks is, let's say you're up $1 million in a coin, you sell $200,000, and it goes down by a lot because maybe people are like, "Oh, he's selling, so I should sell as well." That's obviously one of the things that's going to happen. It's happening today, and it'll happen in every market.
But I think the counterargument to that is that it went up in public, so it should go down in public. If you were able to get attention onto this thing, and people realized the thesis and started to find conviction because you did it in public, it should work the other way. If you're starting to lose conviction or starting to feel like your price target or thesis is no longer valid, then it should also work the other way.
I think, net-net, you'll still end up much better off collectively as a group because there will be a lot more attention on the asset, people will become more educated, and they'll probably also be involved in better price action generally. But that's something to be careful of, because if you're a big account and you know that if you buy this thing, you're going to have a hard time selling, maybe it makes you a little more selective.
Maybe it's, "Okay, I don't have that high of a conviction to do this, so I'm not going to do it." Or I'm going to do it on an account where I don't have influence, because now it's your reputation that's at stake. In a lot of ways, idealistically, we like to think the social graph will correct itself: You stop following the people who dump on you, or you start leaving bad reviews or saying bad things, and people actually collectively take part in creating social consensus.
I don't think that's how the world operates. You're able to hide a lot of things in the corner. There's always new people, and there's always going to be this thing to solve for.
So that's one of the things we spend a lot of time thinking about: How do you remain neutral as a platform but give people enough tooling so they can make their own decisions?
Right now, the only concrete thing we've rolled out is average hold time. A lot of the time, the issue with following somebody into a trade or trying to replicate their trade is that your time horizon is misaligned. Maybe I have a year-long time horizon: “All right, I'm going to go buy a lot of Bitcoin.” You do that tomorrow, and then I'm thinking, “I'm going to be smart; I'm going to hold Bitcoin for 10 years.” I come back in 10 years, and it's like you sold in month 6.
I'm going to be really upset, but that's just a fundamental misalignment of time horizons. You need to be able to give people more data: Is this person a trader? Do they invest? Are they long-term holders? How do you synthesize those things?
6. The Dark Side Of Trading In Public
Maybe this even happens in discussions where you can start monetizing your audience in a way where it's like, “Hey, $10 and you're in my group. You can ask me questions; we can be transparent; we can talk.” If you deviate from that, it's very public, and there are consequences or whatever. There are a number of things that we have on our minds in terms of how to mitigate this.
I don't think we're at the scale where it's top of mind and super pressing today, but we want to create this platform where we give you enough objective data so you can articulate your own opinions on different people. There can be some level of understanding of who this person is and whether they're a good or bad actor.
Yeah, I think that's really important. It's amazing how often—even on this podcast—I articulate time frames now on literally any asset that I ever mention because I've gotten in trouble before. I'm really bullish on something, and I'm trying to articulate that I'm bullish for the next week. People hold it for a long time, and then 3 months later they ask me about it. I've completely forgotten about it; I literally don't remember the asset they're talking about. I'm like, “What are you talking about?” Then I realize, “Oh, that thing that I sold 2 and a half months ago?”
That's really important. What other tooling would you want to roll out? Am I going to be able to post educational videos on FOMO at some point? What's the idea there?
That's the plan. We want you to be able to have one place where you can connect with your audience entirely. You can educate them on different form factors and interact to the extent that you want to, and it's positive EV in all respects. It is the place to do it because you'll earn more than on YouTube, and you'll connect with your audience more closely than on Substack or whatever else these tangible things are.
One idea we had is: What if, based on attribution, let's say you go buy something and put out a thesis, and a million dollars buys in? What if you can go through those million dollars and assign each person a score based on the weighting of their buy size? If you're making a $100,000 buy, it's weighted more than a $1 buy.
Then you can have these people start to—I don't want to say leave ratings on people, because that just doesn't feel very human—but somehow articulate whether they felt that this was something they were happy to do and whether they gained value from it. Maybe that's algorithmic; maybe it's manual.
Now you have a score where it's like, “Okay, 56 out of 100 is the consensus on this person.” Above 50 means they're good. They don't always come with the best things, but they have good intent. A 90 is good intent, always right. A 20 is a bad actor; don't follow. That should be very obvious.
I don't know if that's something that makes sense for us to roll out in that form factor, but that's one thing we think about: How many dollars are behind your decisions, and what do those dollars feel about the actual decision they've made?
That makes a ton of sense. I think you probably need more informed people, but I don't know if this is true, so I'm just going to speculate here. Let me rephrase this: Do you think the people on your platform right now are interested in this type of content? Who are the types of people you're seeing trading on FOMO? Are these younger guys? Are these people who are actually investing—divesting out of stocks and coming in? Is there any way to tell? Who's trading on FOMO?
I think the information we do have is that a lot of these people are net-new investors broadly. It's not just that they've bought a stock and aren't trading crypto. Some of these guys are saying, “This is the first thing I'm ever investing in.”
I think that's incredible. You think about what you're trying to do here. At the end of the day, you're trying to get more people access to markets. It comes in different form factors, but eventually, through your user journey, hopefully they can graduate onto whatever is interesting to them. Maybe it continues to be memes, maybe it's stocks, maybe it's perps, maybe it's prediction markets. You need to find some way for them to get started, and from there you can inform their user journey.
The most important point here is that we are not the house. We are not the launchpad, we are not the AMM, and we are not the order book. That is all very intentional, because it is in our best interest for you to have longevity as a user. We need to educate you, give you the proper tooling, and make sure that you grow as a user over time.
This is something that almost no trading platform has ever done. We talked to a lot of the guys at Robinhood, and they're like, “We always had this naïve view that the $100 depositor would eventually become a millionaire,” and it almost never happens. It's just not something that's realistic in regular capital markets.
I attribute that to the fact that you don't have the opportunity to learn beyond reading things yourself and digesting them. On FOMO, we've had a lot of guys come in with a few hundred or a few thousand dollars, and they're millionaires now. You're able to understand by doing and by seeing, and humans are creatures of doing and seeing.
I think we give them a platform to actually graduate and understand things. Tulip King just had this tweet where he's like, “I can go watch Michael Jordan every day, but that's not going to make me better at basketball.” If I go watch the top traders and really understand what they're doing in real time, I might have a chance of becoming a top trader.
Now you have the world's first social graph that's reflexive, where your consumer can become a creator—not through any forced effort, but through the natural act of doing what you do on the platform, which is trading. I think that's incredibly powerful. The world has never seen something like this, and we're still not sure it can be done at scale, but if it is, I think it's pretty revolutionary in terms of what it means for the average person trying to invest.
Yeah, it's the beauty of trading. For the most part, it's about your click speed. For the most part, it's an intellectual exercise: Can you understand the supply, demand, flows, and attention? Where are things going?
I'm curious: Where are you converting most of your users? Are most of them coming from Twitter, TikTok, or YouTube? Where are you driving people from?
Early on, X and TikTok drove most of our user base. We probably saw 60% of users referred directly, attributable to TikTok or X, specifically through big traders or content creators.
Now that number is really small. I think maybe only 25% of traders are referred. That could mean 2 things. One is that you're getting more organic distribution, and people are natively figuring out that this exists and finding it.
I don't think that's just, “Here for the first time, go download it,” and that's it. I think it's that you impress people. It's like, “Hey, these are the ways people use FOMO. This is what it is. This is what's available.” Maybe the 8th or 9th time, you're like, “Okay, that's it. I'm going to download it and try it out.”
It's really hard to attribute organic users who are not referred because we generally have no idea, but I think the signs of a healthy social graph are that you're having fewer people referred and the median referral goes up over time.
Right. It's always interesting to me to figure out where the new entrants into crypto are coming from, because I think that's really indicative of how sticky the trend is going to be. If you have a platform where all of the users are coming from X, I think what you probably end up with is this idea that it's just recycled capital.
If you're getting inflows from TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, or other places, then you can start to say, “Okay, maybe this is net new capital coming in.” So I want to end with a question. Right now, we're in the early innings of a bull market, I think. But do you agree with that? Do you think this rally has lasting legs?
Do you think this meme coin trading dynamic, what's happening in MemeFi, and all this stuff are going to see secular growth, or is this going to be a flash crash? What are you seeing? Is there anything in the data that's making you optimistic or pessimistic about this rally?
There are 3 distinct growth events in our company's history. The first one was in a bear market; this one is maybe, arguably, not a bear market for the first time. In both November and January—November of last year and January of this year—we had really big growth events. I'm talking about 10x over 2 days.
It was very spiky. It went up very quickly, fell down very quickly, took a long time to recover, and you could tell exactly what coins were traded, what the narrative was, or why this happened. You could attribute it to 1 or 2 things. That was spiky growth, and I think it was just a flash in the pan for something that was very temporary.
That happened in November, and it happened in January. From there, we've started to see slow growth over time, and it really started to pick back up around June. For the last 60 to 90 days, somewhere in that time frame, it's been a gradual increase. There are no spiky events and no 1 day that's an outlier. Every single day goes up by, let's say, 5% to 10%. There are more users, and you're starting to see this on a trend graph.
If you put up Adam Teck's Dune dashboard, you can see it in real time. It's not spiky; it's gradual. That gives a lot of encouragement because if it's spiky, it's going to spike up and down very quickly. If it's gradual, that means we're still building up this space, and there's going to be some life left.
I think all of this is going to be contingent on whether there are more interesting things to continue to do over time and whether the current games get solved. I think that's detrimental to new users. If the same few people always win in a solved game and they know exactly what's going on, it's kind of like market making. Why would anybody else participate at that point?
I'm hopeful that it's not. With macro where it is today at the crypto level, with Bitcoin around $80K and going back and forth, we're still really early. I don't think most retail shifts its attention to crypto markets until Bitcoin breaks its all-time high. That could take 6 months. That could take a year.
During that time period, we'll continue to build more features, more products, and more ways for people to interact socially. I think there's always going to be an avenue for people who want to try to build a brand through trading, by being the best. There's always a trade somewhere.
I really appreciate you coming on. This was a really fun stream. You got me bullish on meme coins. I'll leave it with this: I signed up for FOMO last week, and it was one of the most polished apps that I've ever used. I've been in crypto for 8 years.
I'm happy to see founders like you coming out and building real products that are actually taking the space forward, rather than just reiterating what we've seen 100 times. I wanted to say thanks. Everyone should go sign up. Go sign up for FOMO, preferably with my ref link.
Amazing, man. I've obviously been following you for some time, and it's cool to see you come into this world of the house instead of majors and perps and things of that nature. I hope you enjoy the experience. If there's ever any feedback, we're here as a team. We love getting feedback and talking to people.
Hopefully, this is something where we look back on 6 months and say, “Hey, it was so obvious. This is just getting started.”
We're going to have to have you back in 6 months, then, to talk about the explosive growth that I know you're going to have. Thank you again.
100%. Thanks, Avi.
That was really great. It was super densely packed. We were talking super fast. I felt like Ben Shapiro there for a second, where I was going 100 miles a minute. I just kept talking; I couldn't stop talking. Se was kind of the same way.
I got through most of the questions that I had written down here. It did make me a lot more bullish on meme coins, because I think what he said is 100% true. Historically—and this is true for me and, I think, everybody who isn't fully in the trenches—it's really difficult to figure out how to make money on these things.
There are a couple of things here that I do want to point out as a note of caution. 94.4% of people have lost money so far trading on FOMO. I don't think that's an indication of what FOMO is as an app. That's an indication of what meme coins are. At the end of the day, most of them are gambling.
It takes an innate understanding of memes, an innate understanding of attention, and an understanding of where people are going to put their money in order to really crush it on meme coins. A great example is this AMC tweet that literally sent a coin from a $100,000 market cap to a $100 million market cap in 5 hours. Five hours. That doesn't happen anywhere else. That actually can't happen anywhere else.
There are a variety of reasons, but really, it's that crypto is the only place that can react quickly to events that have attention. The equity markets can't do it. Prediction markets can do it a little bit, but not really. Nobody's going to speculate, “Is Jimothy going to be more popular in 3 weeks than it is today?” It's just a different world.
It literally is the only market that can react to events and capture and monetize attention quickly. But at the end of the day, all these things are lottery tickets, so you do have to be a little bit careful.
One thing that I find very funny is that today, you have a market that's more interested in real things than you've ever had before in crypto. This is what I've been trying to articulate for a long time, and hopefully you've paid attention: in crypto, everything has been about what might happen, what can happen, and what should happen—not what is happening.
If you go back to 2021, basically everything that went up didn't make any money. 2023 was sort of the same. 2023–24 was sort of the same thing. It's all about what could happen. Now we're actually getting applications that are making real money.
You have things like Hyperliquid and Lighter that are making money hand over fist. You have pump.fun making money hand over fist. I think what this has done is given people more of an appetite for reality. People are less likely to invest in things that make zero sense, that are pure lottery tickets.
That's why MemeFi, this concept of MemeFi. What is MemeFi? Five years ago, a meme coin was just literally a funny picture going around the internet. You'd launch a coin that had the same name as it. There's no actual connection to the meme. It's just that people coalesce around it as a way to express the monetization of attention.
MemeFi is this idea that you're tying a meme coin to an underlying stock. This is happening because of real-world assets being tokenized on Robinhood Chain and on other platforms. They're saying, “For every 20% of volume, or every 20% of fees generated by this meme coin through sales, we're going to go buy the underlying stock.”
This is still a total and complete lottery-ticket gamble, but it's way more real, at least, than meme coins have been in the past. It's still not real. Don't get me wrong. Most of these things are not going to exist. It's basically the meme coin version of a DAT, a digital asset treasury, all of which—except for MicroStrategy, and even MicroStrategy—have failed pretty miserably.
You have to be careful. But I do think that social trading is a massive wave that's going to take over the world for a lot of the reasons that we talked about. People are just way more interested in sharing what they're doing day to day. Think about it: 15 years ago, the concept of posting what you were doing every single day was a little bit weird. Now people do it on their stories all the time.
Why not do the same thing with trading? It's just the way of the world. Speaking of the way of the world, the world is rapidly changing. We have a new model that just got released by OpenAI, GPT-6.0. I haven't used it, obviously, but according to OpenAI, it is absolutely crushing benchmarks across the board.
SanDisk is up 10% today. Intel is up 4%. I'm super bullish on Intel. I think that we can see $140 again by the end of the year pretty easily, especially as we get out of the summer lull. But this, to me, is making me a little nervous about the return of the AI trade.
The return of the AI trade would be bad for crypto, so you have to pay attention to this. It's possible that only certain segments run now. We might not get a full-blown bubble from AI.
You might see Intel run. You might see SanDisk run. You might see Nvidia run. You might see some hyperscalers do well. That concentrated performance would be a lot better than a broad-based rally, with SK Hynix doubling in 2 weeks and the Korean stock market going nuts. That would be worse for crypto.
Right now, I think we could actually be in a happy medium where you could see AI do extremely well at the same time that crypto does well. But you can't have that broad-based rally in AI that brings everybody in. More importantly, I think people's mentality around crypto has shifted because of what you're seeing in the market.
When you have a coin run from $100,000 to $100 million, people start to pay attention. When you have Zcash, an asset that is very easily attainable by most people, there's a spot ETF. You can buy it in the equity markets. You can buy it on Coinbase. You can buy it basically anywhere you can buy crypto. The hedge funds can easily get access to this because of the spot ETF. It reminds people what crypto can do. It reminds people that crypto is able to move quickly.
If we break through $80,000, we've beaten the Bart. I'm going to coin that: we've beaten the Bart. The Bart is, for those of you who don't know, this common charting pattern that happens all the time in crypto bear markets, where you get this pump up, a little bit of consolidation, and then a crash down. The reason you call it a Bart is because it looks like Bart's head, because Bart's head is a square with little squiggly hair on top, if you can visualize that. The chart goes up, squiggles, and then comes right back down.
If we can beat the Bart, if we don't get that down move, it will solidify in people's minds that crypto is in a new era and that we could probably see $100,000. We could see all-time highs by the end of the year. I'm very constructive through the end of the year in general. I think as we come out of the summer doldrums, as people get back into their seats—
Here, I'll show you. This is what a Bart is. This is a Bart, for those of you who don't know. Although most of you should know this. If you don't know this, what are you doing in crypto? Seriously, guys. What are you doing in any trading seat? You have to know what a Bart is. Thank you, Brad, for bringing that up.
Generally, I think I've advocated caution when it comes to going all in, and I'm going to say the same thing. Just because I'm bullish doesn't mean that you go all in on crypto. You could obviously see a pullback. But I do think that the macro sets up for quite a nice run.
We're seeing revenues increase throughout the entire industry. Right now, Lighter is almost at $5. That was an absolute home run trade. I'll give props to everyone who called Lighter a few months ago. It was totally undervalued, integrated by Robinhood, and really doing a great job in terms of getting new users on board. I'm very bullish on Lighter.
I do think that that pair trade is probably good. If you want to put on pair trades, I've been using Pear Protocol recently, and that's been really great for putting on pair trades in crypto. I do think that is probably one of the best ways to still express bullishness moving forward.
7. Beat The BART: Why Avi's Bullish Into Year-End
I believe very wholeheartedly in the separation of wheat from chaff. While we might have multiple reasons for a bear market to occur, I think that most of the winning will happen in the top assets. The beta trade of previous markets is probably not going to do as well as it has in the past.
What is the beta trade? You go back to 2021, and something like Ethereum would have a massive resurgence because of DeFi. Then all these other chains, like Solana, Avalanche, and NEAR, would copy what they were doing, and those things would go up a ton.
For example, Uniswap absolutely rallies, and then Avalanche announces that they're introducing their EVM-compatible chain. This thing called Trader Joe, which is just a Uniswap clone, goes up in a straight line.
Because a lot of these assets are now cross-chain, operating across a variety of different places, and because the chain is getting abstracted away, what really matters is the usage of the actual underlying product, right? The narrative and intention do matter, but it's the usage of the underlying product. That product can now be used across a variety of different chains. Uniswap exists almost everywhere now.
Those types of beta trades matter less, and so you're going to see a consolidation of the winners. If I have one piece of advice for you, it's: don't buy the laggards in this bull rally. Don't worry about them. Don't even think about them.
If you have a thesis on something like perps eating the world, buy Hyperliquid and Lighter. Don't look for a third crazy asset to go up. If it does, it'll be a popcorn trade. It'll come right back down.
Go buy the top things on Robinhood Chain. Don't buy the number-50 asset hoping that you're going to get a catch-up. I just don't think that mentality is going to work. We're really in the new age of crypto. This is the post-dot-com bust. This is when we might genuinely enter a long period of growth for a variety of different assets.
What you saw in the dot-com era is that you had a few companies really capture most of the value: your Facebook, your Google, your Amazon, your Ubers. Look at Lyft and Uber as a great example of this. Lyft is just a terrible company. You wanted to buy the leader, and that's what you should be doing in this industry as well.
I actually view this as happening in AI. I think the previous rally that we had in AI saw everything go up. Revenues were growing for everything, but now you really want to buy the core assets of the rally, which is why I'm allocated to Intel specifically and Nvidia.
I'm back in. I bought back into Nvidia on Wednesday, since we last talked about it, because I am quite bullish on it now. One thing I do want to talk about before we end the stream is Robinhood.
I've been saying it for a long time: if you're bullish on crypto, you need to buy Robinhood. Robinhood has done exceptionally well since that call. We've gone up from $92, which is where I bought, and now we're at $123. I'm still holding. This is a lot. Robinhood, to me, is a multibagger play.
I genuinely think Robinhood could eat finance in a way that we really haven't seen since Interactive Brokers. By the way, did you know that the founder of Interactive Brokers, Thomas Peterffy, was born in Budapest, came to the United States, and is now worth $105 billion? He's the richest guy that you've never heard of. That's how much money financial plumbing can make you.
Do not underestimate Robinhood, especially because they seem to have built the infrastructure to own the future of finance, too. We're going to see tokenization go through the roof. Robinhood is going to get a huge portion of that revenue.
There's all this talk on Twitter right now about how much money Robinhood Chain is making. Yes, Robinhood Chain is making a lot of money. If annualized, it would increase Robinhood's bottom-line revenue by, I think, 20% to 25%.
I don't really think about it like that because I personally believe that we're going to see a huge drop-off in trading and fees on Robinhood Chain, and then we're going to slowly build back up with a more sustainable version when it comes to real-world asset tokenization and stablecoins. All of that is going to be the sustainable way that Robinhood creates value.
But as we know, with every bull run in the history of bull runs, these types of things are flash-in-the-pan revenues, and you can't really bake that in. What's being baked into the price is that Robinhood is the only financial institution that is taking crypto seriously. If you believe that crypto is going to do well, then Robinhood is going to do extremely well. I'm very, very constructive on that.
I've been monologuing for a while, but I kind of wonder: is anyone listening right now? Who's in the chat? Give me a thumbs-up. Give me something. Engage with me. Let me know. I'll answer any questions that you have right now. Otherwise, I'll say goodbye and leave for now, because I do want to get my weekend started.
Drop your questions if you have any. It's Labor Day weekend. I'm going to say it's probably going to be slow. People are sort of out of it. New York is totally empty right now.
I'm going to a wedding in Connecticut this weekend, so I'll be out of town as well. I'm going out to dinner tonight, and I guarantee you I'm going to be the only person in the restaurant we're going to, because it's just totally dead. Everybody's out in the Hamptons. Everybody's enjoying the profits or trying to drown their sorrows.
That's a good question: what do you do on Monday with no market? I don't know. Maybe go outside. That could be kind of fun. Maybe we should do an outdoor meetup one day for all the 1000x listeners. We can go to Central Park and do 10 reps of touching grass: grass, touch grass, touch grass, touch.
That could be kind of fun. I think that would probably be useful for most people. How do you train in the trenches? I don't know. That's a really good question.
I'm actively trying to train in the trenches as well. I really do think that the vast majority of this is just staring at your screen 24/7. That's what I used to do back in the day. You have to train yourself.
Let me give you a piece of advice: You have to train yourself. For any headline or any tweet that comes out, ask yourself, “How can I make money on this? How is this going to impact the markets? Is there going to be an impact?” That should be your process for every piece of information that you ingest.
Basically, the way that I do it is, when I read Twitter, I have a notepad. This is all my writing, and I rip the pages off. Every tweet that has any reasonable amount of value, I write down what I think it might impact. This is a mental-rep exercise.
You see the AMC CEO tweet about tokenization. Your instinct has to be, “What will this affect? Will this affect AMC stock? Will this affect Robinhood? Will there be a meme coin associated with it?” You see a raccoon go viral on Twitter. Will there be a meme coin? That's probably how I would do it, although I don't do this a ton.
For example, when OpenAI comes out with its new model, you have to train yourself to ask, “Will this impact chip stocks?” It seems like it has today, right? SanDisk is up 10%. There's still going to be tons of demand for compute. You have to really get into the mode of asking, “How is this going to impact the markets?” I keep repeating it because it's really important—super important for you guys to understand.
Pick 1 ticker to go long besides BMNR. I would pick SUI, personally. I do like Hyperliquid. I just think Zcash has far higher upside.
I've always been into Zcash, Monero, and Bitcoin. Those are the only monetary assets that I will ever care about. I don't really care about anything else. I care about those 3 assets.
I do think Monero is going to do well because that is the only coin that's actually used for privacy, although shielded ZEC is also seeing increased usage. For those of you who don't know, Zcash is a privacy coin, but it's not private by default. You have to actively choose to shield your ZEC, and the usage of shielded ZEC has been growing. I do think we're seeing an uptick in that.
We're starting to see people realize that, especially because of the Pew Research poll I referenced in the last podcast. It basically came out and said that Americans are souring on the economy, despite the fact that the economy is absolutely rip-roaring. It tells you everything you need to know about perception and how perception drives everything.
The economy is rip-roaring right now, and people are down on it. If you ask your average American, it's 12% lower in terms of whether the economy is good or excellent than it was a few months ago. How is this happening? It's all about perception.
Perception right now is mainly driven by the Iran war and rising gas prices, as well as potential job loss from AI, even though that really isn't happening at all. But this makes me nervous about the midterms, which makes me nervous about the Dems coming in. It makes me start to think that we could see a dip into the midterms, probably short-lived, because what people are afraid of, obviously, is that the Dems are going to try to throw a wrench in everything that Trump is trying to do to improve the economy.
At the end of the day, if the Dems do come into power, that makes it more likely that we have a Democratic president in 2028. That makes it more likely that we get insane amounts of money printing and handouts for every single person. Unless you're a conservative, you're going to be totally nuked. You'll probably be sent to the gulags by President AOC.
If AOC gets elected, I'd probably have to move to Venezuela. Venezuela might literally be safer for me because I keep making fun of her, and we all know what she's going to do to her haters.
Long story short, I do think we're in for a good end of the year. But watch the perception of the economy more than the actual numbers of the economy. That's what matters most. Watch the midterms, and stay safe out there.
Heading into the weekend, my portfolio is Bitcoin and Zcash. I'm still holding all my biotech plays because that's a megatrend. I still have ARKG, XBI, Intel, and Nvidia. I do think that this is going to be a make-it trade for the next 6 months. I think that portfolio could be up 50% to 100%.
If you have a low capital stack, go speculate, I guess. That's the best way for you to grow it. If you have an income stream, obviously, that's better. But this is sort of a golden age of meme-coin trading.
Be careful of the cabals. Be careful of the cabals, but that's what FOMO is for: to help you stay on top of what the cabals are doing.
That's what I'll leave you with, guys. This was a wonderful market update. We got almost 2,500 people tuned into this one. That was a good one.
For all of you out there, Shabbat Shalom. Have a wonderful and restful weekend. I hope you managed to sign off for a little bit and get some rest. Come back Tuesday after Labor Day. We are going to be back at it. We are going to be having a ton of fun in the markets and we're going to be live streaming a lot more. So, have a great weekend, everybody. Nothing said on the 1000X podcast is a recommendation to buy or sell any investments or products. This podcast is for informational purposes only and the views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice or necessarily the views of 1KX Media. Our hosts, guests, and the 1KX team may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.