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John Harris 在 Sohn 2025 发言

John Harris

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TL;DR
  • Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb 管理合伙人John Harris——公司通过多种策略管理150亿美元资产,最早的策略距今已近55年——没有推荐任何股票。相反,他给出了一根适用于各种市场环境的“鱼竿”(the proverbial rod),并指出,只要当天推荐的股票中有超过一半最终奏效,在座各位的表现就会不错。
  • 核心观点是:「投资主要发生在心里,而不是脑子里」(Investing mostly happens in the heart, not the head)。市场里的聪明人数量是成功投资者的“100倍,可能是1000倍”;研究和做功课只是入场券,真正决定成败的是在“反复无常且令人谦卑”的市场中管理情绪。
  • 要在这场游戏里活下来,合作伙伴和客户至关重要。Harris建议年轻投资人环顾自己的办公室:如果身边的人无法提供支持,就“换个地方,或者把它修好”。没有优秀的合作伙伴,想要成功就得“非常走运”,而“运气并不是特别好的策略”。同事同时也是朋友,会让坚持留在牌桌上更容易。
  • 这场演讲是献给Harris的合伙人兼朋友Chase Sheridan的致敬。Sheridan在与癌症进行了长期而勇敢的抗争后,于今年早些时候去世。Harris称他是理想的合伙人:他曾以“最友善、最尊重人的方式”告诉Harris,他是“一个彻头彻尾的白痴”,随后又帮助他重新回到牌桌。Harris认为,自己投资成功中相当一部分要归功于Sheridan的友谊和支持。
  • 在后台谈到一位正在亏损的合伙人时,Harris描述了集中投资、长期持有的结构性难题:公司持有15–20只股票,期限通常为10年、15年,甚至20年,因此“反馈循环很慢,数据集也很稀疏”。他已经不再称公司为一个家庭,因为“家庭没有问责制”;最终,他把公司定义为某种比团队更多、又不同于家庭的组织,但承认“没有完美答案”。
摘要 · 为研究而整理的核心内容

1. 幻灯片上没有股票代码——给鱼竿,而不是给鱼

  • Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb 管理合伙人Harris表示,公司通过多种策略管理150亿美元资产,最早的策略距今已近55年。
  • 他开场时说,面对全球最优秀的一批投资人上台推介股票,“如果今天推荐的股票中有超过一半最终奏效,我们所有人的日子都会过得不错”。与其递上一条“可能不那么新鲜的鱼”,他选择提供“那根传说中的鱼竿”,让投资人在“各种天气”下都能钓鱼。

2. 重要的是心,而不是脑

  • Harris打了个比方:市场里的聪明人数量是成功投资者的“100倍,可能是1000倍”。深入研究和审慎分析当然重要,但只是入场券;真正赚钱,靠的是在“反复无常且令人谦卑”的市场中管理情绪,因为市场中有太多因素不受投资人控制。
  • 和谁一起做这件事,和怎么做同样重要。他说,没有优秀的合作伙伴和客户,想要成功就得“非常走运”,而“运气并不是特别好的策略”。他给年轻投资人的建议是环顾办公室:如果身边的人无法提供这种支持,就“换个地方,或者把它修好”。同事同时也是朋友,会让坚持留在牌桌上更容易。

3. Chase Sheridan,值得围绕其建立团队的合伙人

  • 这场演讲是献给Harris的合伙人兼朋友Chase Sheridan的致敬。Sheridan在与癌症进行了长期而勇敢的抗争后,于今年早些时候去世。Harris称他是“一道美丽的闪电”,照亮了公司,也让每个人变得更好。
  • 致敬中最鲜明的一幕,是Chase曾以“最友善、最尊重人的方式”告诉Harris,他是“一个彻头彻尾的白痴”,随后把他扶起来,替他“掸掉球衣上的尘土”,告诉他“别再抱怨,回到场上去”。
  • Harris说:“无论我取得过什么投资成功,都有相当一部分要归功于他”——归功于Sheridan的智慧和洞察,但“更重要的是”归功于他的友谊和支持;这段旅程“更多是情绪上的,而非智识上的”。

4. 比团队更多,又不同于家庭

  • 在后台谈到一位正在亏损的合伙人时,Harris描述了公司的结构性挑战:公司通常持有15–20只股票,期限往往为10年、15年,甚至20年,因此“反馈循环很慢,数据集也很稀疏”。一个人的贡献可能属于那种“见到时就知道”的东西,即便损益表并未体现出来。
  • Harris说,他已经“刻意”不再称公司为一个家庭,因为“家庭没有问责制。你的兄弟杀了人,他仍然是你的兄弟”。公司是“某种比团队更多的东西”,也是“某种不同于家庭的东西”,但他“始终没想明白那究竟是什么”;找到两者之间的平衡并不容易,而且“没有完美答案”。
John Harris

Everybody, thanks for having me. My name is John Harris. I'm the managing partner at Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb. We manage $15 billion across a few different strategies, and our oldest goes back almost 55 years now.

What I'm going to talk about today is going to sound like a dodge, but it's not a dodge. It's more of an acknowledgment of the fact that you are hearing today from some of the most talented investors in the world. And yet, we are all going to be doing well if one more than half of the stocks that are pitched today actually work out.

So, I could pitch you another one, but instead of giving you a fish that may or may not be so fresh, I'm going to try to do one better and give you the proverbial rod that will hopefully help you fish well in all weather. Sometimes the conditions are great and every cast gets a bite, and then sometimes it's just really tough out there on the water.

As you can see, I don't have a ticker up here. I have a picture of someone I'm guessing many people in the audience knew and admired. It's my partner and my friend, Chase Sheridan. One of the many reasons it's appropriate for me to talk about him today rather than a stock is that, like Ira Sohn, he died earlier this year after a long and very courageous fight with cancer.

1. Investing Runs On Emotion

Let me start by making an observation that isn't going to be news to the older folks in the room. Investing mostly happens in the heart, not the head. There are 100 times, probably 1,000 times, as many smart people in markets as there are successful investors. That tells you that while deep research and thoughtful analysis are really important to what we do, those are just the table stakes.

Everyone is smart. Everyone knows their companies. Everyone does their homework. Where you really make the money in this business is in managing your emotions over the course of a career spent operating in markets that are capricious and humbling, and where so much of what happens is out of your control. You do this long enough and your emotions will get tested to the absolute extreme. You will look terribly wrong, and sometimes you will be terribly wrong.

2. The Right Partners Matter

Which is why who you do this with is every bit as important as how you do it. I am a very lucky guy in that I have had the privilege of navigating markets for over 20 years now with a group of very special people, none more so than this guy up here.

He was brilliant and insightful and all of those things, but the best way to explain why he was so special is that I can't tell you how many times he told me I was a complete and total idiot in the nicest and most respectful way. He never pointed a finger at me. He never raised a voice at me. He never made me feel like an idiot. He always told me I was an idiot in a way where afterward I thought to myself, “Gosh, what an idiot I am.”

In those times when I really did feel like an idiot, he was always the guy to pick me up off the field, help me wipe the dirt off my jersey, pat me on the back, tell me to stop whining, and go get back in the game. You need partners like that, and you need clients like that.

Now, “need” is probably too strong a word. You can get by without them, and some people do. But if you are going to succeed without the support of great partners, you are going to have to get yourself very lucky. I don't know about you, but I don't think luck is a particularly great strategy.

3. Choose Your Partners Carefully

So, here's a friendly suggestion for the younger people in the room today: Go back to your office and look around at your colleagues and your clients. If they don't look like what I just described, either go somewhere else or fix it, because this is a very hard game, likely harder than you realize, and your odds of succeeding at it are not what they should be.

A big part of playing this game well over decades is just staying in the game, which again is harder than a lot of the young people in the room probably realize. Staying in the game is just a lot easier if you are playing it with people who are not just your colleagues, but also your friends.

I really hope everyone in this room gets to work with someone like Chase, and I'm very glad to be here to support this cause so that hopefully there are fewer stories like Chase's and Ira's to tell in the future, because I have to tell you, I miss this guy a lot.

4. Chase Was A Lightning Bolt

It's fitting that I'm here to talk about him and remember him in a, quote-unquote, lightning round, because that's how I like to describe him. He was this beautiful bolt of lightning that lit up our firm and made us all better in every way you can be better.

Whatever investing success I've had, I owe a healthy portion of it to him—to his wisdom and his insight, but much more importantly, to his friendship and support through a journey that, like I said, is much more emotional than intellectual.

Nate and Grace, if you ever see the video of this, you should know that among many things, your dad was a partner in every sense of that very, very important word in our business, and frankly, in anything you do in life. If you want to build something lasting and special, you have to build it with special people like him. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you, John. That was very meaningful. I think here at Sohn, we spend most of our time focusing on companies, margins, product-market fit, and growth. But at the end of the day, I think we all agree that what guides those companies is people, at least for now, for the next few years.

And so I wanted to give a quick thanks to Evan. You mentioned Ira. I know Evan's dad isn't feeling great, so he can't be here today. I wanted to send him a message that this is amazing—everything they have built.

The other person who deserves thanks is Graham Duncan. He's the chair of the committee, and he's one of the people who understands people the most. I think a lot of you are here because of him and what he's built, and he has an incredible podcast, Invest Like the Best, about people that I recommend.

But then, going back to more on investing and making money, we were in the green room before, and we were also talking about, “Okay, well, what about if a partner isn't carrying their weight? He's losing money. Let's talk about those dark times.”

5. Slow Feedback Complicates Management

John Harris

Yeah, you know, that's one of the hardest things about managing a firm like ours, because across most of our strategies, we typically own 15 or 20 stocks, and we will often own them for 10, 15, and even 20 years. So the feedback loops are slow, and the data set is sparse.

There's a little bit of an element of “you know it when you see it.” You just know when someone is contributing, even if the P&L doesn't show it. But it's also just about striking the right balance.

6. Accountability Defines The Firm

I've never found the right word for it, but I used to describe our firm as a family. I studiously don't do that anymore, because in a family there's no accountability. Your brother can kill someone and they're still your brother. In our business, you need to make money at the end of the day.

So we're something more than a team, but we're something different from a family, and I've never figured out what that is. Striking that balance is one of the secret sauces to managing a firm that does what ours does. It's not easy, and there is no perfect answer. Thank you.

John Harris 在 Sohn 2025 发言 — 文字稿与摘要 | BidClub