关于 Jensen Huang 间谍事件,你需要知道的一切 | Hard Fork
Kevin RooseCasey NewtonAna SwansonRyan MacStephen Witt
- 节目称,Huang 仍是 Nvidia CEO,而 Witt 认为国会作证才是他职位面临的最大威胁。讨论围绕媒体披露的指控展开:Huang 被指与一名涉嫌中国间谍的女性有染,芯片则经由 MegaSpeed 转运。Witt 预计此事可能带来法律风险和“巨额罚款”,但认为 Huang 大概能挺过去。主持人还说,特朗普政府似乎早在1年前就知道这些指控,却一直没有介入。
- Nvidia 对 Huang 的依赖,使他的去留影响远超这场丑闻本身。Witt 描述,Huang 领导公司30多年,直接汇报给他的约有60人,而他本人没有指定接班人。这形成了“巨大的关键人物风险”,也让董事会有充分的股东利益理由留住他。
- 出口管制争议的关键,在于设备最终流向何处、由谁使用。Witt 认为,马来西亚贡献 Nvidia 营收的10%或15%,说明中国需求正通过中间方流入。他提到可能存在的虚设服务器调包,以及与 Alibaba 相关的算力消耗,同时承认 MegaSpeed 的细节仍“有些模糊”。
- Huang 为向中国销售辩护的商业逻辑,如今面临严重的公信力危机。Witt 说,中国再建一批规模堪比美国的数据中心,能带来营收上行空间;限制出口则会促使中国研发竞争性硬件。他认为即使没有这段关系,Huang 也会持同样立场,但如今“他的公信力为零”,并设想 Nvidia 可能彻底失去中国市场。
- Witt 怀疑,白宫对华鹰派想削弱 Huang 对 Trump 的影响力。他说,Marco Rubio 曾向 Trump 提交有关这段关系的情报,而 Trump 没有采取行动。他推测,后来有人想“削弱 Jensen 对总统的影响力”,因此出口政策可能是泄密动机的核心。
- Witt 认为,市场反应平淡,反映了既有的增长放缓预期,以及竞争供应商的受益机会。他称 AI 基础设施股票的估值“非常便宜”,因为市场预期未来几年销售走弱。Nvidia 遇到困难,可能利好 AMD、Broadcom,尤其是 Google;后者的竞争威胁早于这些指控。
- Witt 认为,Huang 公信力受损,可能让 AI 监管获得更多支持。工程师式的信心少了一位有力倡导者,尽管仍有其他人认同这一观点。Witt 仍强调地缘政治层面的反对理由——“如果我们停下来,中国就赢了”——并指出自己在亚洲几乎听不到 AI 末日论。
1. 指控将个人行为与芯片出口执法联系起来
- 主持人把《纽约时报》报道中的3条线索串在一起:Huang 被指与一名涉嫌中国间谍的女性有染、芯片疑似经 MegaSpeed 转运,以及特朗普政府知情并可能介入商务部调查。节目开场称,Huang 仍担任 CEO,Nvidia 已启动内部调查,而总统似乎早在1年前就知道这些指控,却没有采取行动。
- Witt 说,马来西亚的规避路径早已广为人知:一个没有大型 AI 研发计划的国家,却贡献 Nvidia 营收的10%或15%,这意味着采购背后有中国需求。尚未厘清的是,设备是否实际进入中国,还是中国客户在境外使用算力。
- Witt 说,细节仍“有些模糊”:Nvidia 设备可能先进入马来西亚某处设施,再被虚设服务器替换,随后运往中国。另据报道,Alibaba 似乎是 MegaSpeed 的主要客户;这是否违反限制,“取决于你如何解读法律”。设备交付海外后,美国调查人员能掌握的信息有限。
- 被问到 MegaSpeed 是否是真正的企业时,Witt 回答:“我不确定。”随后他提到该公司的设施、用电量和付费客户。MegaSpeed 似乎成立于2023年,当年 Nvidia 将其列为优选云合作伙伴。他也强调,马来西亚除了 MegaSpeed 之外,还有正当经营的数据中心产业。
- Witt 认为,与 Anthropic 或 OpenAI 相比,Nvidia 对中国而言不是那么有价值的商业机密目标,因为中国无法生产 Nvidia 芯片,也拿不到所需设备。他认为,围绕 Huang 展开的行动可能更多是为了影响力;Huang 与 Trump 走近后,这段关系可能成了中国间谍的一大收获。
2. Nvidia 的组织结构让撤换 Huang 代价异常高昂
- Witt 对公司组织结构的概括很直接:“Nvidia 就是 Jensen。”公司没有常见的第二管理层——由6至8名高管组成的团队——而是约60人直接向 Huang 汇报。Huang 在 AI 硬件领域的核心地位,让 Nvidia 承受“巨大的关键人物风险”;Witt 认为,美国经济也有一部分面临同样风险。
- Witt 认为董事会不会轻易解雇 Huang,因为他预计此举会令股价大幅下跌。他提到,长期担任董事的 Tench Coxe 持有价值约20亿至30亿美元的股票,这构成了保护公司的利益动机。Huang 是个“狠角色”;Witt 认为他大概能挺过去。
- 接班安排难以让人安心。被问到谁会接替自己时,Huang 对 Witt 说:“没人。”董事会在2024年表示曾考虑过候选人,包括 Jay Puri;Witt 说,Puri 后来已经退休,现年70多岁。Huang 的子女 Madison 和 Spencer 没有 Witt 认为管理 Nvidia 必需的技术背景。他的女婿 Nico Caprez 最近在公司获晋升,或许会发挥作用,但 Witt 对此也不确定。
- Witt 更担心国会听证。共和党若要求闭门作证,Huang 还能少受一些难堪。Witt 认为,民主党掌权后会举行自己的调查和听证,或尝试这么做,并设想届时会公开进行。他的理由是,与涉事公司的负责人关系密切,就更难声称自己毫不知情:“他没法再装傻了。”这是 Witt 的推断,也构成了他对公司罚款和个人法律风险的警告。
3. 中国市场的商业机会与政治公信力发生冲突
- Witt 认为,Huang 支持对华销售有直接的商业逻辑:再建一批规模与美国相当的数据中心,就需要设备,“他的公司价值大概也会翻倍”。Huang 还担心,扣住芯片会迫使中国打造独立的硬件体系,最终成为 Nvidia 必须面对的竞争对手——“我们可能会输”。
- 这种担忧早于眼下的指控,最早可追溯到对中国生产更便宜游戏硬件仿制品的担心。Witt 认为,无论这段关系是否存在,Huang 都会主张继续销售。尽管如此,“他的公信力为零”;Witt 设想,Nvidia “很快”就可能再也无法向中国销售任何产品。
- Huang 的政治影响力变化也很关键。Witt 回忆,Huang 在2024年几乎不参与政治,之后逐渐凭借奉承和 Nvidia 的成功,在 Trump 身边变得更有影响力。他形容 Huang 把接近 Trump 当作一个“工程问题”来处理:弄清输入和输出,再满足总统“永无止境的认可需求”。
- Witt 说,对那名被指为 Alice 的女性实施窃听后,Huang 进入了调查人员视野;Marco Rubio 为 Trump 准备了一份备忘录,但 Trump 没有采取行动。此前已有传闻,也有5月的一份做空机构报告,但都未能证实存在婚外情。Witt 怀疑,对华鹰派想“削弱 Jensen 对总统的影响力”,借此重新掌握政策影响力。
4. 市场平静反映的风险不止这场丑闻
- 主持人问,尽管 Nvidia 股价下跌且公司对经济影响重大,为什么整体市场反应相对平静。Witt 的解释是,基础设施类股票的估值已经“非常便宜”:投资者预期未来几年销售会下滑。“也许其中一部分已经反映在价格里了。”
- Witt 提出的第二个原因是竞争格局:Nvidia 的坏消息可能利好 AMD、Broadcom 和 Google。尤其是 Google,已经成为重要的竞争对手。这些商业风险在丑闻之前就已存在,也解释了为何指控未必会引发同等幅度的全市场反应。
5. Huang 影响力减弱,可能改变 AI 政策的力量平衡
- 被问到失去 AI 领域最不担心风险的重要支持者,是否会改变政策时,Witt 回答:“是,可能会。”Huang 的立场可追溯至2015年,David Sacks 和 Marc Andreessen 也持类似看法。但 Witt 认为,Huang 可能是其中最有说服力、影响力最大的一位:从微芯片出发,失去控制属于“工程上的失败”,工程师可以修复。
- Witt 将这种观点与 Dario Amodei、Sam Altman 等更担忧的人作对比:他们从上往下看一个强大的系统,觉得“我不知道这东西是怎么运作的”。他注意到 Trump 开始接受有限度的监管,也认为民主党赢得选举浪潮期间,选民似乎对 AI 感到担忧;不过他承认还有其他选举因素,包括油价。
- Witt 最有力的反对理由仍是地缘政治:“如果我们停下来,中国就赢了。”他说,中国、日本、韩国和新加坡的人对 AI 末日论都没什么兴趣。他在美国的活动上经常被问到 AI 风险,却说:“我在这里从没被问过 AI 风险。”从这个角度看,美国人的恐惧有时像一场“道德恐慌”。
完整逐字稿
In all my years on the computer, I never thought I’d see graphics cards and an international sex scandal in the same story. But this week, The Times broke the news that Jensen Huang, the CEO of chipmaker Nvidia and one of the most important figures in AI and tech, has been having an affair with a top executive at a Singaporean data center company who also happens to be an alleged Chinese spy. Her company was reportedly illegally funneling advanced Nvidia chips to Chinese companies. Huang remains in place at the top of Nvidia, which is launching its own internal investigation, and the new Democratic Congress could follow with one of its own, especially since President Trump has apparently known about the allegations and been unwilling to intervene for a year.
Look, I love a spy story, and I won’t pretend the sex scandal part isn’t a huge draw for me. But I’m also fascinated that this lurid tale of international intrigue is all about graphics card trade policy. This is the quintessential 21st-century spy story. We’re not talking about troop movements or anyone stealing top-secret microfilm. Jensen Huang wears a leather jacket, not a tuxedo. What we have instead is a tale of executive hubris, Chinese holding companies, export controls, and, of course, a race to create the world’s most powerful and important technology.
Because this is such a rich and fascinating intersection of our interests, we had to talk about it as soon as possible. Today, on what we’re calling an emergency episode, I’m joined by technology journalist Stephen Witt, who literally wrote the book on Jensen Huang and Nvidia, to talk about these revelations. How did someone so powerful become an international espionage target and fall for it? Why did it take so long for this story to come out, and who leaked it? How much of what Huang has been saying as a leader of the tech industry is now going to be called into question? And is it possible that this story is dramatic enough that it could pop the bubble we’re also worried about?
I’m Max Read. This is Hard Fork.
Joining me from a hotel room is Stephen Witt, author of last year’s book, *The Thinking Machine*, a biography of Jensen Huang and Nvidia. He’s going to help me try to wrap my head around this. Welcome to Hard Fork, Stephen.
Thanks for having me.
Of course. What have your last 24 or 48 hours been like as this story has been breaking?
I’ve been on every news network, I think, in the world. They’ve invited me on, and I’m having to decline invitations that, at any other time, I would have been overjoyed to get. It’s 3:30 in the morning where I am, and I’m still reporting. I’m still working. It’s nuts. What a story.
It seems to me that there are 3 big revelations in this unfolding story, or at least things that were revelations to me. One is that Jensen Huang was having an affair with an alleged Chinese spy.
Mm-hmm.
Two, that his affair partner’s company, Megaspeed, is suspected of funneling Nvidia chips to China in contravention of U.S. export bans. And, third, a series of things we’ve now learned about the Trump administration’s knowledge of this and possible intervention in Commerce Department investigations. How much of this was revelatory to you? You’ve spent a lot of time reporting on, talking to, and thinking about Jensen Huang. How much of it was surprising?
Everyone knew that the Malaysia data center thing was a cutout to smuggle chips to China. That had been reported by The Times over a year ago. Even before that, people understood that Malaysia didn’t have a big AI development program. If 10 or 15 percent of Nvidia’s revenue was coming from Malaysia, that really meant those chips were being distributed to China in one way or another.
Some people think the chips were brought to the data center, had their labels removed and replaced, and were then sent directly into mainland China as part of a real smuggling operation. Others thought maybe the data center was being used by Chinese assets in some way. But that was pretty well known.
There were whispers about the affair. I had heard stuff about it going into this summer and had been trying to find out more, but I didn’t have access to the thing that I guess really broke the story, which was White House intelligence. That was the surprising thing.
Although this is a story about Nvidia, smuggling, and affairs, I think Jensen found himself on the wrong side of the China hawks here. I think that’s where a lot of the reporting on this went: to the China hawks, who had an axe to grind with Jensen.
Yeah, and I want to talk about that in a moment. But before we get there, one of the big reasons this is a big story is that we don’t have many examples of CEOs who are as powerful as Jensen Huang. Can you briefly describe his role at Nvidia and in the greater AI ecosystem, and explain why it’s uniquely damaging for him to be involved in a scandal like this?
Jensen is the founder, CEO, and basically king of Nvidia. He’s been in that role for 30-plus years. Nvidia is an unusual organization. Typically, in a corporate org chart, you’ll have the CEO and then a second layer of management, maybe 6 to 8 people, who assist the CEO in various roles. That doesn’t exist at Nvidia. There’s Jensen, there’s nobody in the second tier, and then there are 60 people who report directly to him.
It’s a very unusual arrangement. Nvidia is Jensen to a degree I’ve almost never seen at any other corporation, except maybe some of Elon Musk’s companies. It’s really just this one guy in control, managing and running everything.
If he is compromised, if he has to step down, or if he can’t do his job in some way, that’s uniquely damaging for Nvidia. Nvidia has grown so large selling AI hardware, and microchips in particular, into data centers that it’s now a linchpin of the American economy. There’s a giant key-person risk, not just for Nvidia, but to some extent for the entire U.S. economy, around this guy.
This is painful for U.S. markets and very painful for Nvidia. Jensen’s judgment has to be called into question. This guy was bulletproof for the last decade. His stock did nothing but go up, and every call he made was right. Now it doesn’t look that way.
I understand this is going to take a little while to play out, but given his importance as you’ve described it, would you be surprised if he were ousted?
I’d be surprised if the board fired him. I don’t think that would be in the best interest of Nvidia shareholders, and that’s their job, right? I think it would make Nvidia’s stock go down a lot, so I don’t think the board will do that.
The real risk to Jensen, to me, comes from what Democrats and Republicans are both asking for: congressional hearings and congressional testimony. There are a number of ways this can go wrong, but probably the most important is that it’s so obvious to anyone looking at it for one second that these data centers in Malaysia were not for Malaysian people. They were for Chinese AI developers to get around these export restrictions.
Jensen could maybe play dumb and not understand that in the abstract, but if he’s sleeping with the head of the company, he can’t play dumb anymore, right? He must have known what was going on. And that’s against the law, right? So this creates enormous legal liability for Nvidia. They might have to pay a massive fine, and it could even create liability for Jensen himself.
The Republicans are asking him to testify behind closed doors. That’s actually positive for Jensen because it’s less embarrassing. I think the Democrats are going to hold, or attempt to hold, their own inquiries and hearings once they take control. I imagine those will be public, and it’s going to be a tricky situation for him. I just don’t know how he can say, “I didn’t know Malaysia was a cutout. I didn’t know about this woman.”
This is the thing that shocks me. It’s terrible that Jensen had an affair, but these things do happen in the course of human life. I’m so shocked that Jensen had an affair with this specific woman, who is just a walking red flag. She had no background in computer science, as far as anyone could tell, and suddenly she’s running this data center operation that’s a front. This woman is a smuggler. To begin a romantic relationship with someone like that just shows an almost self-destructive amount of poor judgment.
I can’t believe nobody warned him, but the thing about Jensen is he’s very headstrong and doesn’t listen to any advice. So, you know, he—
Yeah. You wrote the book on Jensen. You’ve spent a lot of time in his head. What do you think was going on there? Was it just a total lapse in judgment?
Yeah, pure hubris. I don’t think there was some strategic thing he was doing. I don’t really know what was going on in his head. He fell for it. He got played. That’s all you can say.
Yeah. To return to the question of Jensen’s role at Nvidia, if he does end up having to leave the company down the road, is there a succession plan in place?
Like, who’s the heir?
I asked him, “Who’s your successor?” He said, “Nobody.” He didn’t have any kind of plan personally. He never personally selected or named a successor. You know, again, hubris. Maybe he thought he was immortal.
I put this question to the board back in 2024. They said, “Oh, well, we’ve looked at some candidates.” One of those candidates was a guy named Jay Puri. He just retired, and he’s in his 70s, so I don’t think it’s going to be him.
I think Jensen’s going to fight this one as hard as he can. Jensen is a fighter. He’s a knife fighter. I actually think he will probably survive this, believe it or not. The thing that would bring him down, as I say, is congressional hearings. Never say never, but I don’t think the board will get rid of him.
The board is comprised of some of the original founders of NVIDIA, guys like Tench Coxe, who has been there since day one, since 1993. Tench Coxe has, I think, something like $2 billion to $3 billion worth of NVIDIA stock. He’s not going to do anything to damage the company.
Yeah. I know that 2 of Jensen’s kids and a son-in-law work at NVIDIA. As far as you know, are they being groomed to take over his position at some point?
Yeah, this is an interesting question. Jensen always presented to me and to others this total family man image. He talked a lot about his wife and how much he loved her. They’ve been together since he was 17 years old. They got married in their early 20s. If they get divorced, she may become one of the wealthiest women in America independently, sort of like MacKenzie Scott Bezos.
His kids are close. He keeps them at the company: Madison and Spencer. But they don’t have technical backgrounds. Spencer studied photography, and Madison went to culinary school. Whoever runs NVIDIA, whoever’s the CEO, has to be, in addition to being a businessperson, a world-class computer scientist. They have to be one of the best computer scientists alive, which is what Jensen is. He’s in the National Academy of Engineering. He has a master’s in electrical engineering. His computer science skills are excellent.
They can be present for the transition. They will inherit a large number of shares, but I don’t think they can run the company. Madison married this guy, Nico Caprez, earlier this year, I think just about a month ago, in Hawaii. So now Jensen has him as a son-in-law as well. He’s been promoted rapidly within the company. We’ll see if he actually has a role to play.
Yeah. Let’s turn to the political question here. I think it’s fair to say that Jensen is Trump’s favorite CEO, or certainly one of his favorite CEOs.
I think he was.
The president says he will take him on his upcoming trip to China. Here’s the Trump quote: “I haven’t heard he’s done anything wrong. He dealt with somebody, but so does everybody else. I think he’s an honorable guy. I think he probably has an excuse for it. You have to hear it. No, you can’t do that with people. He has done an amazing job for our country.” That’s the president of the United States on the man who is having an affair with an alleged Chinese spy.
How did Jensen get into this position in the Trump administration? And, furthermore, how did he become such an important figure in the AI sector in general?
This is the amazing thing. When I was talking to Jensen in 2024, he had no interest in politics. He had never made a political donation, and he had never endorsed a political candidate or indeed any policy. There were a couple of things related to exports, but very little. He was not a political guy, and he didn’t even attend Trump’s inauguration. He was in Taiwan while Sam and all the rest of them were kind of behind Trump in that show of power at the inauguration.
But he got Trump’s ear, and my impression is that he kind of became Trump’s friend through this really shameless approach of flattery. Jensen is an engineer, and what he told me is that he thinks about everything as an engineering problem, meaning you’re going to study the inputs, look at the outputs, and then modify the inputs to control the system until you get the outcome that you want.
Trump has a bottomless need for validation, and Jensen supplies that to him. He shamelessly kisses his butt, and I think this makes Trump like him. The other thing is that Jensen’s a winner, right? Trump always wants to be around winners, and for most of this year, NVIDIA was the single most valuable company in the world, maybe in human history. That made Trump and Jensen want to be close to each other.
I think Jensen understands Trump at a certain level, how to program him. His ego isn’t going to get in Jensen’s way the way it might for another tech executive.
Right. Let’s talk about Jensen’s stance on China, because that’s important to the story on a couple of different levels. He’s been a pretty outspoken advocate for selling his own chips directly to China, in contravention of U.S. export restrictions on those chips, which have been put into place to try to slow down China’s own AI development. Tell me a little bit about his stance, how he came to it, and how he’s advocated for it.
I was always a little surprised by it myself, but there’s certainly a great business case for it, right? China is going to have a massive data center build-out that looks just like the U.S.’s. When they do, they’re going to fill all of that with computing equipment. So that’s another entire data center build-out that he can supply, which presumably would double the value of his company.
It’s a very straightforward P&L, profit reason that Jensen wants this. I think the justification for it is: If we don’t sell this to them, they will build their own AI hardware stack, and then we’ll have to compete against that. That will be very challenging for us, and we might lose.
Jensen is genuinely very afraid of that. It’s a theme that has gone all the way back to the beginning of his career: the fear that his equipment, even in the video game days, would get cloned by Chinese competitors and sold at a fraction of the cost, and he would go out of business. That’s certainly the history of hardware. It’s normal that he would be afraid of that and would be looking to prevent it.
What poisons the discourse now is this romantic relationship. Are you saying this because you believe it, or are you saying it because you’re entangled with a foreign intelligence asset who was manipulating you? I think that narrative is probably not true. I think Jensen would say this anyway, but his credibility is zero. He can never talk about China or export restrictions again without sounding like a fool, like an intelligence play has happened.
Like a patsy, basically.
Yeah, precisely. Like a stooge. So I think that argument has gone out the window. I imagine NVIDIA will, in short order, not be able to sell anything to China ever again.
Yeah. You brought up before the possibility that what’s happened here is that Jensen’s enemies within the Trump administration had gotten their knives out for him. Tell me why you think that, and who those enemies would be.
There were people on the right who didn’t like this. It’s not that they didn’t like Jensen; they didn’t like his soft take on China. They didn’t like that he was pro-free trade with China. These are the China hawks on the right: guys like Peter Thiel and Paul Lucky, and in particular Marco Rubio, who is a longtime China hawk and also Trump’s Secretary of State. Rubio actually wasn’t permitted inside China for a while because his statements were so hawkish.
The U.S. intelligence community got to this story because they had some kind of wiretap on the woman, on Alice, and Jensen showed up in that wiretap. Marco Rubio prepared a memo showing that it was Jensen and shared that with Trump. Then Trump took no action.
I imagine at least part of the reason we in the press are now hearing that is because someone in the White House wanted to reduce Jensen’s influence over the president. I think there was an element here of the China hawks taking back control of the narrative and taking back control of power within the White House.
Yeah. Let’s talk about the chips and the supply chain. The details are complicated in exactly what is happening in the MegaSpeed case, but it’s something like NVIDIA is selling chips to the U.S. arm of a Chinese company, which then sells them on to MegaSpeed.
Yes.
Is this a sort of normal—I think you sort of answered this question before—
This is how you smuggle something, right? You establish a dummy corporation in a different country, and then you reroute it. That’s why import-export can be a shady business sometimes, right? There was a case earlier this year where guys at Supermicro were taking these boxes for NVIDIA equipment. They would take a hair dryer and blow the packaging label off, peel it off, and then replace it with a fake packaging label.
In MegaSpeed, the details are still a little fuzzy. One thing that may have happened is that they were using the data centers with dummy servers. The NVIDIA equipment would show up, and they would install it, quote unquote, but actually install other nonfunctional equipment in the data center to make it look like a functional data center. Then you wheel the NVIDIA equipment out the back door and cart it off to China, to some secret location.
That seems to have been one thing happening. Even without that, MegaSpeed seems to be downstream of Alibaba, which is kind of the Chinese eBay, and Alibaba seems to have been the main customer for MegaSpeed’s products. Again, that depends on how you read the law, but I think that’s in violation of the export restriction as well, because you can’t use these fronts. The lawmakers are aware that this sort of thing exists.
There are a couple of ways to get around it. This year, I’ve heard that NVIDIA has cracked down on this a lot, perhaps recognizing the political liability of many of these sales. It’s really forcing the data centers to make sure they have legitimate customers who are not in China.
I’m in Singapore right now. This is just across the bridge, about 30 minutes away from me. But, as is typical with these facilities, you can’t access them at all. They’re surrounded by gates and security. No one’s allowed in or out, so it’s really hard to know what’s going on in there. As I say, I think it defies imagination that Jensen wouldn’t understand what was going on here. It just isn’t plausible.
Yeah. Let me ask: it’s the Commerce Department that is, for the most part, investigating this? If you’re installing dummy servers in your fake data center, are Commerce Department investigators stopping by to check on those? How is the U.S. involved?
Right. They have limited ability to do anything outside the United States. I think they’re probably guaranteeing that the original point of sale, or the original destination where the thing is delivered, is this data center in Malaysia. They’re real; they exist. There’s something there. But once it goes in, the U.S. has very limited authority and insight into what might happen in Malaysia. From there, there’s not much they can do.
I’m not quite sure how to ask this, but is Megaspeed a real company? It’s not a fake company or a cutout or anything?
It appears to be. It’s a great question. I’m not sure, but it appears to have been formed in 2023. That year, Nvidia announced that they were a preferred cloud partner, meaning, “We’re going to prefer selling our equipment to this company in Malaysia.”
They have facilities. They have big data centers that seem to use a lot of power. They built something here, so it’s not completely phony. It seems like people use their computing resources and pay them for it. It is a real company in that sense. It’s just an open question who’s using it, who’s paying for it, and how legitimate any of it is.
Well, that’s a good place to take a break. When we come back, we’re going to talk about what’s going on in Singapore, where you are right now.
Welcome back to Hard Fork. I’m talking with Stephen Witt. You are in fact in Singapore. What’s the reaction been like on the ground? Is everybody in Singapore talking about this?
1. Singapore’s View of the Scandal
Oh, yeah. I think the reaction in Singapore is, “What took you guys so long?” Singapore’s authorities had been busting smuggling rings going back to 2024. They were aware that at least some of this was happening.
Johor is just across the way, and a lot of people who live in Singapore work in Malaysia. Malaysia has become a data center hub beyond Megaspeed. There’s legitimately a big industry there. It employs a lot of people, and they’re very proud of it. I don’t want to smear them all as some kind of criminal conspiracy. It’s a real thing.
But I think the impression they got was, “What is going on here?” There were a lot of whispers about Jensen and this woman, both inside Nvidia and among people working around there. I think people got the impression there was more to their relationship than simply business. But it’s hard to prove. Without a wiretap, which is ultimately what brought him down, how are you going to demonstrate this?
Right. There was a short-seller report back in May that has now been recirculating. It seems to have put some of the pieces together, but it was unable to specifically describe an affair, as you say, because they didn’t have a wiretap themselves.
It’s very hard. I think people knew, or at least suspected, that something was going on. You see videos of the two of them together; there’s a kind of awkward body language when they’re together. There are more photographs and videos leaking out. So I imagine if you were part of Jensen’s immediate entourage, you probably had a fairly good idea of what was going on.
I had heard stray whispers from within Nvidia earlier this year, but I just wasn’t able to find it or track it down. It was a hard story to get. Credit to the Times for getting it.
I’ll take that credit. I’m happy to take that credit as a podcast host. I can’t imagine that trying to honeypot the CEO is the first line of attack for Chinese intelligence services, or the Chinese government in general, trying to accomplish whatever they’re trying to accomplish. I presume that Nvidia has been a target of infiltration attempts, signal capture, and whatever else you might do. Is that true?
Oh, they all have. Nvidia is, in some ways, the least valuable target. They’re really going after Anthropic and OpenAI. Trade secrets from Nvidia are pretty valuable, but China can’t actually manufacture what Nvidia manufactures because they can’t get the equipment. So I think with Jensen, it probably is more about an influence campaign.
At the time this relationship started, Jensen wasn’t close to Trump. That’s the other thing. They probably had some other motive for going after Jensen at first. Then suddenly they were like, “Oh my God, we’ve got—we were literally in bed with the president’s top tech adviser. This is awesome.” This was a big win for the Chinese spies. It was like Christmas morning for them, probably.
Yeah, I bet. At the time we’re recording this, Nvidia stock is down, but the market overall is relatively calm. This is despite the importance and power of the companies we’ve been talking about. Why do you think there isn’t a bigger reaction in the markets over this?
It’s funny: all of the AI infrastructure stocks that make up so much of the market now are actually trading at very cheap valuations. The market thinks the AI infrastructure play is coming to an end, or that there’s going to be a drawdown in sales in the next couple of years. That’s how the stocks are priced, so maybe some of this was priced in already.
The other thing is that what’s bad for Nvidia is actually good for Nvidia’s competitors, specifically AMD, Broadcom, and Google, which are all manufacturing rival microchips. Google in particular has really started to become one of Nvidia’s top rivals. Nvidia has a number of significant business risks outside of this spy scandal that it already faced, and I think some of that was priced into the stock as well.
Let me ask you one final question along these lines. Jensen is unique in this moment as a tech CEO, especially as an AI CEO, in that he’s maybe the least safety-focused, or the least afraid of AI as a technology.
Yeah.
It’s almost the opposite of somebody like Dario Amodei, who’s constantly warning of possible catastrophe. Jensen gave a big interview to my colleague Ezra Klein earlier this year where he makes the case that it’s just a tool and we shouldn’t be worrying about it like this. You wrote about this for the opinion section recently. There’s a scene at the end of your book where he yells at you for even pressing him on this belief.
So my question is: what happens if AI’s biggest, least afraid booster loses power and loses credibility, like we’ve been saying? Do policymakers change their sense of what AI is? Does this change the direction of AI development in the future?
Yeah, probably. Jensen’s not the only person who feels this way. Most of Trump’s advisers feel this way. David Sacks certainly feels this way. Mark Andreessen certainly feels this way, same as Jensen.
They all think AI is completely safe and that all this doomerist discourse is disconnected from reality. That has been a long debate. Jensen believed that long before he ever hooked up with a Chinese spy. This goes back to 2015.
I do think he was probably the most convincing and powerful advocate for that point of view. His point of view is that he’s looking at it from the microchip up. He’s saying, “I have complete control over each individual component here, and if I’m losing control somewhere along the system, that just means it’s an engineering failure, and we know how to fix engineering failures.” So I’m sort of parroting his point of view.
From Dario and Sam and the other people who are more worried, they’re looking at it from the top down, and they’re saying, “I don’t know how this thing works. It’s extremely powerful, and I might lose control of it.” That’s a really different point of view.
I think Jensen has lost this one. I’ve noticed even Trump has started to talk a little bit more about, “Well, maybe we’ll regulate it a little bit.” I think the Democratic wave that was just put into power had a number of reasons, including oil prices, but it seems like voters were very concerned about AI.
I think Trump’s point of view and Jensen’s point of view is, “No, you don’t understand. If we stop doing this, China wins. China takes control of this technology. They are not afraid, and they are not slowing down.” I think that’s actually the strongest argument against the AI doomer narrative: people out here in Asia—not just China, but Japan and Korea and Singapore—they don’t believe this at all.
Yeah.
They just do not believe this, and you don’t hear a lot of doomerism. I never get AI risk questions out here. In the U.S., it’s the most common thing that I’m asked. So to some people, it looks like a cultural hysteria, almost like a moral panic.
Yeah. All right, Stephen, thank you so much for joining us. This has been a really enlightening and elucidating conversation. I really appreciate you making the time at 3:30 in the morning in Singapore, from your hotel room. The book is The Thinking Machine. It’s a great read if you’re at all interested in one of the most important, and now most talked-about, figures in the AI era. I look forward to reading more of your reporting on this.
Thank you so much.