[BidClub_]
1000x · · 44 分钟

Saylor注定会爆仓吗?

Avi FelmanJonah Van Bourg

YouTube
TL;DR
  • Jonah的核心判断——“这是为了引战,但我确实相信”:Michael Saylor的行为像一名失控交易员,而且“绝对会爆仓”,连同这波新出现的比特币买入型SPV也一样。 两种路径:没有Trump保护性看跌期权、股市下跌20%,MicroStrategy今年就会爆仓,“John Ray处理完FTX后会接手MicroStrategy的破产案”,清算将把Bitcoin拖向1万;或者两年牛市把Saylor的平均成本推到约17.5万,随后他在25万跌至15万的过程中被清算。他认为后者概率更高,但“华尔街历史上从未有过这么大规模的失控交易,最终不是以彻底崩溃收场”。
  • Avi的回答是:唯一的出路就是Saylor停止买入。 他设想一种持有近600,000 BTC、平均成本约7万的情形——如果Bitcoin涨到14万,债务“真的、真的很容易再融资”;但“几乎可以定义为,只要他继续在高位买入——而且他就喜欢这么做——他就会爆仓”。他的公开请求是:“别再买这么多Bitcoin了。” Jonah的点睛之笔是:Saylor正在照搬Three Arrows Capital的完整打法,只是抵押品更好、参与者更老练——“他就是这一轮的Su Zhu”。
  • 反向山寨季:在Bitcoin于8万至10.9万之间横盘时,做空“空气币”的“永续空头”。 Avi列出的标的包括ETH、Worldcoin、MOVE、TIA、WIF,可能还有ICP——等待它们从低点反弹30%–60%(“加密圈的人只是因为东西跌了、图表看起来不错,就会买入”),然后重新做空,赚取30%–40%的跌幅。至于ETH,“陪审团已经不再悬而未决……陪审团判了有罪”——它相对BTC连续3周收阳,是2021年以来最长纪录,但即便上涨20%,也只是回到3月水平,“届时大家大概都会出场”。
  • 仓位收缩:Avi已从85K时的100/100看多降到95K时的80/100——“不再碰任何看涨期权”,只持有现货BTC。 85K时,他认为市场定价错位,预期出现剧烈修正;95K时,行情依赖标题驱动,需要后续跟进,因此预计未来1至2周横盘,减掉大仓位,“如果能再次以9万买到Bitcoin就太好了”。如果出现真正的集中抛售——股市再跌10%,除了黄金之外全部下跌——Jonah会“全力买入TAO”。
  • 政府保护性看跌期权挺过了解放日,这就是宏观底线。 Jonah的框架是:这次崩盘是市场重新评估后金融危机时代那套“政府希望数字上涨”论点;90天关税暂停证明即使是Trump也会退缩,而这份保护性看跌期权会一直存在,直到一位奉行再分配主义、类似“Bernie Sanders的人”赢得白宫。但关税成本正在落到企业身上——据报道GM自行承担关税,将净利润从150亿美元压到100亿美元——因此盈利预期修正可能再把股市打低10%,随后趋势才会恢复。
  • Bitcoin变得更容易投资,却更难交易。 ETF资金流入“像水龙头一样涌入”(5月1日4.22亿美元,5月2日6.75亿美元),而ETH ETF的资金流只是“新手级别”(先流出230万美元,再流入650万美元和2,000万美元)。MicroStrategy筹资840亿美元、可能成立Cantor Fitzgerald–Tether–SoftBank合资项目、SEC撤销案件、美联储放松银行业加密限制——这些消息“在2021年会是梦想成真”,但BTC仍未创新高,说明SBR抢跑交易已经被提前消化了多少。如果可能的Cantor Fitzgerald融资开始部署并进行二次融资,“在我看来Bitcoin就会到11.5万左右”。
  • 市场已经在告诉你下一波行情的赢家:上周跑赢的是Virtuals、Hyperliquid、Monero、Maker和TAO。 Jonah将其解读为:链上RWA、DeFi收益和AI正在引领监管放松周期。TAO的上涨可能受到市场传闻推动,即其他资产也会出现类似MicroStrategy的资产负债表公司——这是“绕道进入ETF”的方式;Avi认为这正是加密行业的本质:“通过监管套利赚到的钱多得有点离谱。”
摘要 · 为研究而整理的核心内容

1. 拉升后的消化:从100/100看多降至80/100,“不再碰任何看涨期权”

  • 盘面上,Bitcoin从9.3万涨至9.8万高点,目前约9.5万;股市在连续9个交易日上涨后下跌30个基点;真正值得关注的是黄金当日上涨3%,从3,500附近近10%的跌幅中反弹——“恐惧可能正在慢慢回来”。Jonah对加密资产的担忧小于对股市的担忧:BTC在股市下跌时仍上涨,“交易方式更像黄金,没那么像股票”;他还提醒,Bessent关于战略比特币储备的计划预计“今天,5月5日”公布,市场覆盖不足,但“那里肯定会发生一些事情”。
  • Avi对市场状态的判断是:加密资产在恐惧与复苏之间那片“我完全不知道”的中间地带表现最差,因为没人愿意持有高波动资产——不过BTC相对股市的波动率已经收缩,“这是个令人欣慰的意外”。市场正在奖励有明确基本面的标的:Hype、TAO、Curve、Monero,以及“正在积累真实用户和收入的资产”;但大部分板块仍然大幅下跌。
  • 他的仓位变化是本期最清晰的判断:85K时,他是100/100看多,并偏好看涨期权,因为在一切已经发生之后,价格“低得离谱”,且预计会出现剧烈修正;95K时,行情已经“依赖标题驱动,而不是自然回归”——不再买看涨期权,只持有现货BTC,降低敞口,把现金拿回来。预计未来1至2周横盘:“仓位很大的朋友,可以考虑减一点……如果能再次以9万买到Bitcoin就太好了。”

2. 政府保护性看跌期权挺过了解放日

  • Jonah的宏观框架是:关税政策的急转弯,代表全世界重新评估金融危机后那套“政府希望数字上涨”的论点——也就是免费的保护性看跌期权。市场跌至低点,是因为担心政府已经不再在意市场(“工薪阶层不持有股票,所以我们可以把股市带到任何位置”)。90天暂停证明事实并非如此,这份保护性看跌期权会持续存在,“直到有人以再分配主义议程当选Trump的位置,比如Bernie Sanders。那之前,即便恐慌达到顶峰,你仍会看到政客退缩并托底市场”。
  • Jonah提醒,这种定价“显然”不理性——先跌30%,再涨20%——而480–490的反弹区套住了那些在高点下方10%处追入的买家。早期关税证据显示,企业会自行承担成本:GM(Jonah此前口误提到GE)宁可把净利润从150亿美元降至100亿美元,也没有将成本转嫁出去。盈利预期会继续下调,所以“也许我们还能在这里再跌10%,然后开始当前这轮上涨”。
  • Jonah的3种情景策略是:如果波动率让股市再跌10%,并且除了黄金之外一切都在崩盘,“我会全力买入TAO”;如果市场在这里横盘,就围绕WIF、ETH、TIA以及“其他任何纯粹的空气币”做永续做空;如果市场继续猛涨,他手上的风险敞口已经足够。

3. 反向山寨季——ETH“陪审团已判有罪”

  • Avi的打法是:加密市场充斥着“永续空头”——一群被套持有者“只是因为东西跌了、图表看起来不错,就会买入”,把价格从低点拉高30%–60%,然后离场,“接着就轮到VC继续砸在你头上”。Worldcoin已经涨到1.20美元,较低点反弹60%,“是时候重新进场,再争取吃到30%–40%”。MOVE、TIA、WIF,可能还有ICP,都符合这一逻辑。前提是Bitcoin在8万至10.9万之间横盘,而不是处于狂热的新高行情——“这些东西最终都会归零,这让我很高兴,因为它给了我寻找超额收益的选择”。
  • ETH是最典型的标的。它相对BTC连续3周收阳,是2021年以来最长纪录,Avi正在观察第4根周线能否成为技术性筑底信号;但他“个人仍然极度看空”:即便反弹20%,也只是回到3月水平,“届时大家大概都会出场”。他的原话是:“关于ETH,陪审团已经不再悬而未决。陪审团判了有罪。”
  • Jonah补充了为什么ETH特别适合做空:在2,200亿美元FDV下,“这具垂死的尸体里仍有大量血可以流出来”——早期持有者的成本只有10美分,却在约2,000美元处卖出,用于支付婚礼和买房;市场是“无休止的卖出,没有新的投资”。相比之下,小市值资产可能把空头挤出去。Avi用Staples比喻这种惯性:那些与加密资产相关、配置比例为5%–10%的持有者,还没有适应“ETH正在输掉竞争的新世界……这些东西要死掉,需要很长时间”。

4. 更容易投资,更难交易——市场正在点名下一周期赢家

  • 这一连串标题“在2021年或2022年本该是梦想成真”:SEC暂停加密执法,撤销对PayPal PYUSD的调查和对DRW的诉讼;Tether计划在2025年推出美国稳定币;美联储放松银行业加密限制;可能成立的Cantor Fitzgerald–Tether–SoftBank 36亿美元Bitcoin项目;MicroStrategy筹资840亿美元;甚至据报道,Nvidia将投票决定是否把BTC加入资产负债表。但Bitcoin仍未创新高,Avi认为这证明了“为了抢跑政府的SBR,市场已经投入了数百亿、数百亿美元”。他的触发条件是:一旦可能的Cantor Fitzgerald融资开始部署,并且随后进行二次融资,“在我看来Bitcoin就会到11.5万左右”。
  • 资金流向也说明了同一件事:BTC ETF的资金流入“持续且不可阻挡”——5月1日4.22亿美元,5月2日6.75亿美元;而ETH ETF“看起来像一项被遗弃的资产”:4月30日流出230万美元,随后流入650万美元和2,000万美元。“这都是新手级别的数字。”
  • 上周表现最好的Virtuals、Hyperliquid、Monero、Maker和TAO,在Jonah看来是市场为监管放松周期留下的线索:链上RWA、DeFi收益和AI,“就是下一波上涨必须押注的方向”。Avi补充了一个较少被讨论的Bittensor上涨驱动:市场传闻正在为其他资产设立类似MicroStrategy的投资工具,TAO也在其中——“这是绕道进入ETF”,也说明监管套利“如果你认真想想,几乎就是整个加密行业”。
  • Avi认为,游戏正在向机构化倾斜:交易在闭门完成(如果提前知道那笔交易,可能就能在“法律灰色地带”进行交易,因为Bitcoin属于商品),因此政府拥抱Bitcoin让它“更难交易,却让股票市场投资更容易”——“你只需要全天候阅读、全天候建立人脉,否则就会被蒙在鼓里”。

5. Saylor是本周期的Su Zhu

  • Jonah把这一点标为本期核心:“这既像是在引战,但我确实相信。我认为Michael Saylor的行为像一名失控交易员,他绝对会爆仓,其他这些SPV也一样;而当他爆仓时,Bitcoin会大幅下跌。”TAO资产负债表工具同样让他担忧:没有真正的业务支撑票息支付,“本质上是让人用别人的钱下注……最终会以糟糕的结局收场”。
  • 两种情景是:如果没有Trump保护性看跌期权、股市下跌20%,MicroStrategy今年就会爆仓——“John Ray处理完FTX后会接手MicroStrategy的破产案,把Bitcoin一路清算到1万”。另一种情形是,两年牛市让Saylor继续买入,将平均成本推至约17.5万,随后清算把市场从25万打到15万。Jonah认为后者概率更高,但“华尔街历史上从未有过这么大规模的失控交易,最终不是以彻底崩溃收场”;唯一的问题是,它会从当前价格开始崩,还是从未来某个天文数字高点开始崩。
  • Avi给出的解决方案更窄:“我们摆脱这一局面的唯一方式,就是他停止买入。”如果停止买入,近600,000 BTC、约7万的平均成本意味着Bitcoin涨到14万时,债务“真的、真的、真的很容易再融资”;但“几乎可以定义为,只要他继续在高位买入——而且他就喜欢这么做——他就会爆仓”。他希望模仿者在下跌2%–3%的日子买入,而不是追涨——“想象一下,如果Bitcoin真的有一支保护性看跌期权团队——但现实只有追涨吸毒式交易”。他的直接请求是:“Saylor,如果你哪天看到了这个播客,我给你的建议是:别再买这么多Bitcoin了。”
  • Jonah最后比较道:Saylor“正在照搬Three Arrows Capital的完整打法”,只是从更老练的人那里借钱,而不是从Voyager和Celsius借钱——“他就是这一轮的Su Zhu”。Avi也承认,至少他的资产基础是Bitcoin,而不是被锁定的Avalanche和溢价GBTC。Jonah最后幻想的一笔交易是:Bessent与司法部合作,迫使MicroStrategy进入定向破产螺旋,“像他击穿英格兰银行那样”,然后在破产程序中为SBR买下这些Bitcoin。“不太可能,但那会很爽。”
Jonah Van Bourg

This is both rage bait and something I actually believe. I think Michael Saylor is behaving like a rogue trader, and I think that he will absolutely blow up, as will all of these other SPVs. When he blows up, Bitcoin is going to be down bad.

Avi Felman

We had an eventful weekend. Basically, it started last Wednesday with a little rally up from 93 to 96. We peaked out at 98, and now we're sitting at about 95K. Equity markets are holding up okay today, looking down 30 bips, but it's not a big deal.

The real story of today is gold. Gold is up 3% today, which is kind of nuts. It seems like people are crowding back into that fear trade. We had that really sharp sell-off: We hit 3,500, came down almost 10%, and now we're off the lows, up a decent amount—5% to 6%. But it looks like fear might be slowly creeping back into the markets.

I'm curious as to your take here, Jonah. Have we hit all of our targets? The bullishness that we expressed 2 weeks ago on that podcast and then celebrated last week—are we done? Is it time to step away? If you bought extra, are you supposed to be completely out? I said dip out last week. Are you supposed to be completely out this week?

Jonah Van Bourg

It's a great question. I think over the short term, if your time horizon is a week or 2 and you're super actively trading, yeah, I'd be concerned. I don't like that gold is up either. I think the equity markets have topped out a little bit.

To me, I think that there was peak fear priced in when the Trump tariffs first hit after Liberation Day. Then he reversed them, telegraphing a willingness to be reasonable, and markets focused. I think that now we're at the equilibrium level for that, if not a bit optimistic, because markets are pricing in a fairly benign resolution to all this, which is still very much anyone's guess.

With gold ripping, I'm concerned about equities. I'm not an active equities trader because I don't believe in going head-to-head with the sophisticated Ken Griffin-type players who I've observed in my trading career. I don't think I have an edge short-term trading equities. So, I'm basically just mentally preparing myself for another big drawdown on my stocks.

In the short run, I think it's notable that Bitcoin's up today with equities down. Equities have been up 9 days in a row, right? You can't rally forever. We have to have a pullback at some point, and Bitcoin is disconnecting again to the upside. So, I'm less concerned about Bitcoin. I do think there's a massive put under the market.

One other feature, Avi, that I want to get your take on is Bessent. In the crypto executive order—the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve that we all got so excited about back when Trump first took office—Scott Bessent's deadline to deliver a kind of manifesto or a game plan around that is due today, May 5th, right? Maybe it's not getting a lot of press, but something's going to happen there.

Bitcoin's trading more like gold and less like stocks. Looking good. Basically, in response to your question, I'm less worried about crypto than I am about equities, which could get dicey. What do you think?

Avi Felman

Yeah, with Bitcoin, it's interesting. It's like a mix of gold, and it gets strength from both sides. I think the middle ground tends to be the worst for crypto. It's when you're facing, “Okay, well, we're not really sure if gold should be up or equities should be up.”

We had a period post-Liberation Day when we were like, “Okay, shit's collapsing. The question is, how far does it collapse?” So, you have that direction, and then you have, “Okay, we're on recovery mode. Things don't seem as bad as they are. Gold's going down, equities are going up.” You get that for 10 days.

1. Crypto Outperformers & Perpetual Shorts

I think crypto does tend to do the worst during these periods of “I have no idea,” because people tend not to want to allocate money to high-volatility assets. Although Bitcoin vol is actually pretty reasonable even now compared to equity, which has been a welcome surprise. There's been some compression there.

If I'm looking at crypto, it just goes back to what we were talking about for the previous weeks, where we're having specific outperformers in this market that are directly due to the fundamentals of these assets. You're looking at HYPE, you're looking at TAO, you're looking at Curve—all of these things that are doing really well. Monero, too. You're looking at these things that are doing really well because they're actually good assets, accumulating real users, revenues, and usage, and I think that continues.

My one thing that we haven't talked about in a while is ETH/BTC, but ETH/BTC is showing signs of life. I'm still personally giga-bearish on ETH. So, I still personally like the buy-the-HYPEs, Hyperliquids, and TAOs of the world and sell the ETH trade. But it is at least promising that we're getting some real outperformance here.

If you look at the broader market, a lot of things still aren't up, right? It's actually very specific assets that are up. There's still a lot of assets that are down substantially.

Jonah Van Bourg

Yeah. From when equities bottomed out, TAO just does not go down. I've been wanting to accumulate more of that, and I've been waiting for a dip. My big dip buy, thanks to our conversation, was Hyperliquid back on the lows, but I didn't really buy any TAO.

I was like, “Well, it's going to keep chopping. I'm going to get some.” It's just up 3% to 8% every freaking day. It's so annoying for me. I'm really missing the boat on that one. I don't really understand what's going on there or why, other than just a general positive narrative, which I hate buying into if there's no underlying cash flow occurring.

But I know there's some cash flow. We'll talk about it. I don't know. Subnet 16 is the biggest decentralized Bitcoin miner, but is it profitable? I don't really understand. I don't know how to track it. I'm still getting smart on that ecosystem.

I don't want to go in at a size that, even if I miss the trade, I won't still feel okay about it, because I don't like piling in on things that I don't understand well enough. TAO is still kind of a mystery to me. I'm still getting smart on it.

Avi Felman

As for broader crypto, yeah, you mentioned ETH. 3 consecutive weekly green candles is the most we've put in since 2021, so I'm watching that ETH/BTC chart very closely. I think if we get 4 green weekly candles, maybe technical voodoo suggests that it's bottomed out.

ETH is just so good at faking people out. What I will say is, it's down so much that you could get a 20% rally against Bitcoin, which would bring it up to a level that it was just at in March, at which point everyone's probably getting out.

I think there are what I call perpetual shorts in crypto. You just have to find the right entries so you're not completely squeezed out of the position. Whenever it's up 20% to 50% off the lows, you just short the shit out of it again.

ETH is one of those and has been one of those. Worldcoin is another one, where 2 weeks ago it hit $1.20, which was 60% off the lows, and you're like, “All right, time to reenter this position and try to clip another 30% to 40% when it goes lower.”

MOVE is another good one. There are a lot of these complete and utter shitcoins where you wait for a weekly candle or 2 of outperformance, or you wait for 30% to 40% off the bottom—in ETH, it's going to be a little bit less—and then you just reshort the thing and make money.

I think TIA is probably going to be the same type of trade.

Jonah Van Bourg

Celestia? That's hilarious.

Avi Felman

Perpetual. It's just because there are bagholders in crypto, and there are people who love to speculate. They'll just buy things because they're down, because the chart looks good.

Jonah Van Bourg

Yeah, and what's crazy is that those guys are never going to hold.

Avi Felman

You just have to wait for those people to get what looks like a good trade out of it, and then they're all gone. Then it's back to the VCs dumping on your head.

We can make a whole list of this. WIF is probably another one that's now in this trend.

Jonah Van Bourg

Yeah, that wasn't in this trend before.

Avi Felman

ICP could be a good one here. I do want to note that you don't want to do this when Bitcoin is pushing all-time highs. You don't want to do it in a euphoric market, when there are a ton of animal spirits.

You do it when you're kind of in this—this is the perfect market to do those things in, right? When you're chopping around a little bit. As long as Bitcoin's between 109 and 80, these perpetual shorts will work. Once it breaks out, maybe wait for them to reach their all-time highs and then short them again. But I do think these things are all going to zero, which makes me happy because it gives me choices of alpha.

2. Outlook for Equities?

Jonah Van Bourg

Yeah, agreed. Inverse alt season. I mean, one of the nice things about ETH is that, unlike some of the other coins you mentioned, the FDV is just humongous. It's still a $220 billion asset. There's a lot of blood that can still leak out of this dying carcass, right? I think some of the smaller coins start to get into danger territory if the market cap drops too low and then you can get squeezed. But with ETH, even if all the short-term traders are out and the bag holders are disillusioned, there's still long-term holders who got in with a cost basis of 10 cents a token, it's trading almost $2,000 a token, and they need liquidity to fund their wedding ceremony or buy a house or a car or something. There's just this endless selling and no fresh investment. So I like the idea of the perpetual shorts.

Avi Felman

Yeah, I 100% agree with that. I think there are a lot of people that haven't given up on ETH still. I still get messages from what I'll call crypto-adjacent people. They have 5% to 10% of their portfolio in crypto and they hold ETH still, right? They haven't, in my opinion, adjusted to the new world where ETH is losing out, and it's just been around for so long. It takes these things a long time to die. I mean, Cisco—or sorry, Staples is what I was thinking. Staples—it took a long time for Staples to go away, right? There's a lot of inertia that these types of projects can coast by on. But I do think eventually we're sort of out. The jury—sorry, what I'll say is the jury is no longer out on ETH. I think the jury's said guilty, and we're trending lower.

So when it comes to trading, I'm still in the very nimble mindset. It's like, okay, well, you have to pick your spots, but Bitcoin's looking good. I'm hopeful. I think that there will be a pullback in equities just because this sounds silly to people that don't trade, but there's a lot of psychology that comes into trading, even equities, when they're this volatile, because it's kind of all you have to go off of: psychology and emotions. The fundamentals—I mean, you can't tell me that the fundamentals of the equity markets were down 30% and then up 20%, and that was all rational pricing happening in real time. That's just clearly not what was happening.

And so when you look at the chart, this 480 to 490 area was sort of the last—that was like the little bounce that you had where a lot of people, I think, piled in hoping that, okay, this is it. We're off 20% from the highs—or sorry, 10% from the highs. Maybe we can start buying now. And I think they got trapped. So I do think that there's a lot of selling to work through here because people still aren't really sure. I mean, we're not really sure how these tariffs are going to impact the market.

What we're seeing, at least, is we're seeing hints. There's this great clip where, basically, it's really funny. They're debating the tariffs—I think it was CNBC, one of those roundtable shows—and they're going, “GM came out and said they're not going to pass on the tariff cost to the consumer. They're going to eat it all out of their profit. So they're going to go down from $15 billion net profit to $10 billion net profit. They're just going to eat it.”

GM has apparently come out and said that they're going to do this, right? They're going to eat the costs. And then suddenly the other side of the table starts going, “Well, isn't that—” It's sort of a Republican versus a Democrat, and the Democrat's starting to go, “Well, isn't what's bad for the corporation bad for the consumer, bad for the average guy?” Republicans are like, “That sounds like a Republican talking point.” Now it's like people are flip-flopping all over the place because nobody really has any idea what to even think or how to trade this. I say that point just to illustrate that.

But we are getting some indications now that companies are going to eat a substantial amount of the cost of these tariffs and they're going to try not to pass it on to the consumer, which obviously would bring valuations lower, right? Quarterly earnings are going to be revised lower. And so I do think that maybe that adjustment has happened, but I don't think it's fully happened yet. Maybe we can go down another 10% here and then we start the current rise up. I do think a lot of it also has to do with time, right? It's always about time as well. I don't know. What are you thinking?

Jonah Van Bourg

No, I think that's a really good take. Let me just try to build on it. I think basically what the big jackknife move lower in stocks was about when the tariffs first got announced was the global investing public reevaluating a post-global-financial-crisis thesis, which has been: the government wants the number to go up, right? The government wants risk to be mitigated. The government has basically sold a gigantic put to the investor—or, sorry, the government has provided a free put to the investor, right?

And then when Trump came in and made market-unfriendly, corporate-profit-unfriendly noises, I think everybody was like, “Oh, my God, are we about to eat 3 crises' worth of medicine and go back to the lows of 2008 because we now have a president with almost unlimited power rewriting the rules and rewriting that particular number-go-up kind of game?”

And then when he flinched and listened to the calmer voices in the room, and those voices prevailed, and he did the 90-day tariff pause, I think that the markets repriced to a level that says, “Hey, actually, the government still does want the number to go up. The government still believes in a stronger stock market, believes that higher equity prices equal American exceptionalism for the most part, and they're not just going to go ahead and punish the little guy.”

The big puke down to the lows in equities was when the market thought that the government may no longer care about equity prices, when it was like, “Oh, the working man doesn't own equities, so we can take stocks wherever we want and our base will be fine.” When that got—basically, when the 90-day pause happened, that's when every investor around the world realized that the government does want the number to go up, does care about equity prices, does believe that American exceptionalism involves corporate earnings growth, right?

So now, basically, stocks are trading around an equilibrium level where tariffs are creating uncertainty, but the put is still there. The government has still provided a put to the investor base, and that gives me a lot of confidence. So basically, what I think—I do believe the put is still there, and I think it will be there until somebody gets elected into Trump's seat on a redistributionist agenda, like a Bernie Sanders-type character.

Until that happens, I think even in peak panic, you'll see politicians flinch and backstop the market. Even Trump did. So here's what I'm doing. In the scenario where what you just said plays out and volatility and uncertainty take equity markets down another 10%, Bitcoin's crashing, everything's down except gold, I'm going to be buying TAO with both hands. That's my chance.

If markets stabilize around here and just chop, I'm going to be leaning into your perpetual shorts thesis and looking for spots to short WIF, ETH, TIA—anything else that's just total vaporware. And if markets take off, happy days. I've got enough skin in the game right now that I'm going to feel okay about it. What do you think of that plan?

3. MSTR, Cantor & Bitcoin

Avi Felman

I think that's a good plan. At least in the short term, we got the move back to this level in equities. We almost tapped $100,000 on BTC. We got a ton of good news that's come out.

I'm not really worried about a sharp move in the short term. I do think we're probably in the digestion phase. There's a lot of stuff that's come out recently about Bitcoin, including MicroStrategy's headline of raising $84 billion to go buy Bitcoin, and likely Cantor Fitzgerald really leaning into crypto.

I don't know if you saw, but there was a SPAC that just went live: the [organization name unclear], where Tether, SoftBank, and likely Cantor Fitzgerald are all ganging up to buy Bitcoin. Everybody's coming together now in this moment to basically telegraph to the world, “Hey, we're going to be investing a lot in crypto. We're probably going to be buying a ton of Bitcoin directly, and we're going to be expanding the influence of crypto throughout the world.” And we're some pretty large, influential players.

It's all in the process, and Bitcoin is not at all-time highs. That, I think, tells you a lot about the exuberance that was baked in because of the potential SBR. I think it tells you just how many billions and billions and billions of dollars were invested trying to front-run the government.

What's interesting is that these steps actually do make it more likely that an SBR happens at some point in the future. But these guys are also telegraphing buys. I do think what's going to happen is that it's going to take a little bit of time to digest.

Once the first dollars really start to hit—if likely Cantor Fitzgerald comes out and says, in their $3 billion raise, “Okay, they bought some Bitcoin,” and then they do a secondary raise—Bitcoin's at like $115,000 in my mind. I think it's just a matter of time, which is why I liked the calls when we were at $85,000, because I thought that we could get a sharp move very quickly.

Now I think it's a little bit more headline-dependent whether we go up or not. It's not necessarily a natural reversion. I thought $85,000 was way too low of a price given everything that's happened. There was going to be a sharp move that corrected this. At $95,000, it's more, “Okay, we've got all these great headlines, and that's what pushed up the price, but now we need some follow-through.”

I'm basically not touching any calls anymore. IVs are probably fairly priced, but spot BTC is a good place to hang out. I am a little bit lighter on exposure. If I was 100 out of 100 bullish at $85,000, now I'm 80 out of 100. I'm not saying let's short the market, but I'm saying it's good to have cash again because I think that we could gyrate for a bit. It'd be great to buy Bitcoin at $90,000 again, right?

Jonah Van Bourg

Yeah. You have to predict those environments where you're going to get chop. I think that's one thing that I've been reasonably good at: post-move, trying to predict where you're going to get chop, and then stepping back a little bit so you don't get blown out of positions.

I'm trying to predict that right now: in the next week or two, there's going to be a bit of chop. So, for those of you in big positions, maybe trim it down. For those of you not in positions, don't rush in.

Avi Felman

Yeah, I agree. My not-financial-advice advice.

Jonah Van Bourg

None of this is financial advice, luckily. In the meantime, I agree with you that if we had just traded from $90,000 to $95,000 straight to $100,000, I think it would have been an air pocket up to $110,000 in Bitcoin. But now I think it's going to be kind of a rock fight to get to $110,000. I think it'll keep chopping.

Basically, like you mentioned, the headlines that have come out in the last week would have been a dream come true for us in 2021 or 2022. I've just compiled a few here: the SEC paused crypto enforcement and dropped the PayPal PYUSD stablecoin investigation. They also dropped a bunch of other lawsuits recently, including against my former employer, DRW.

Tether plans a US dollar-pegged stablecoin launch in 2025. The Federal Reserve lifts its bank restrictions on crypto and stablecoin activities. The likely Cantor Fitzgerald, Tether, and SoftBank $3.6 billion Bitcoin-buying venture. SoFi plans to resume crypto investing in 2025, citing favorable regulations. NVIDIA is talking about having a vote to see if they want to add Bitcoin to their balance sheet. Freaking crazy, crazy, crazy stuff.

Against that backdrop, the best performers of the last week, since we last podcasted, have been Virtuals, Hyperliquid, Monero, Maker, and TAO. I think what that tells you is we're basically entering a zone where the market is telling you which alts are going to perform on this next deregulation cycle in crypto.

It's basically RWAs, onchain DeFi, yield-bearing stuff, and AI. That's where you have to place your bets for the next leg higher. I think the market's already giving you tea leaves to read to pick your next trades.

Avi Felman

I say 100%. I'm actually seeing it specifically on AI, which is kind of interesting. We're getting hints. One of the things that may or may not be driving this Bittensor rally, which isn't necessarily talked about a lot, is that there are some rumblings and rumors about trying to spin up MicroStrategy-like companies for other assets. Bittensor is one of those assets that people are trying to spin up these entities for.

I do think that this game is a little bit weird because it's kind of like a backdoor into an ETF. One thing that, growing up in crypto—and you in oil—you probably understand deeply is just how much money is made via regulatory arbitrage. It's kind of insane to me, and the amount of opportunity there is in regulatory arbitrage is pretty nuts.

I mean, that's kind of the entirety of crypto if you really think about it from the beginning, right? It's like you're building this alternative financial system outside of the rails. Therefore, you're subject to none of the rules. Therefore, you can build things in a new and less complex way.

Then the rules come on later, but you've already cut out all the fat. Because you didn't have to play by the rules, you were able to build a better system, and now you kind of are the system, which is great.

Yeah, but I do think that one thing this market is becoming a lot harder for your average retail investor and just for your average trader, because there are so many things that happen behind closed doors now.

I mean, if you had advanced notice of this likely Cantor Fitzgerald thing, maybe you could have put on some trades. These aren't necessarily illegal. It's a legal gray area because Bitcoin is a commodity, and if somebody's putting together a deal to go buy Bitcoin and you hear about it—maybe you get a deck—it's like, well, I don't even know if it's getting done. So, yeah, you can technically buy Bitcoin and you're not breaking any rules.

But I will say that the embrace of crypto by this administration is making it, I think, harder for your average person to trade Bitcoin. But it's making it easier for them to invest in equity markets. It's making it easier for them to invest, but the trading—right? Everything that we do, the actual trading—I mean, think about it. Why does your average guy not trade oil successfully? Because people like you at Vitol were sitting there with 300 times the amount of information as your average person on the street. How could they ever possibly compete with you?

Unfortunately, that seems to be happening in this space, which again is why I gave a shout-out on the podcast to all of the research providers. Without them, I'm completely lost in this sea of noise. Basically, you just need to be reading 24/7, networking 24/7, and talking to people 24/7; otherwise, you're just left in the dark about everything that's going on, and it's very difficult for you to make any money.

4. Will Saylor Blowup?

But that's also why hopefully you listen to this podcast, so that you know. If you listen to this podcast, one of the reasons Bittensor is doing well is because people are trying to spin up these companies. That's what we're doing. We're making it easier for people to trade, hopefully. But we're not providing investment advice along the way, obviously.

Jonah Van Bourg

So, let's talk about—you mentioned a bunch of stuff there that I want to zoom into. I think one of the most interesting things is just the idea of Bitcoin being harder to trade but easier to invest in. I think the flows are telling us that story. If you look at the ETF flows in Bitcoin, it is absurd. May 1: $422 million. May 2: $675 million. The inflows are just incessant and unstoppable.

Meanwhile, you look at the ETH ETF. This looks like a stranded asset. April 30: $2.3 million of outflows. May 1: $6.5 million of inflows. May 2: $20 million worth of inflows. These are rookie numbers, right?

Bitcoin—I think what the flows tell you is that people are just—there's a gusher of flow into Bitcoin and very little else. As far as what you mentioned about TAO and the sort of SPV-like vehicles that are getting spun up to invest in TAO, I'm worried about those. I don't think there's any real business backing those coupon payments that need to occur for the debt that's getting raised, or even the equity. It's just vapor.

It's basically a way for people to bet other people's money, and they're going to get liquidated. They're going to get stopped out. It's going to end badly. So, I guess my biggest fear is that Saylor gets liquidated, and he always will, right? This is both rage bait, and I actually believe this. I think Michael Saylor is behaving like a rogue trader, and I think that he will absolutely blow up, as will all of these other SPVs. When he blows up, Bitcoin is going to be down bad.

I guess the big question I want to ask—I want to put this ball back in your court, Avi. If, let's say, there was no Trump put under the market and equities traded down 20%, he's blowing up this year. John Ray is going to finish up at FTX, take over the MicroStrategy bankruptcy, and liquidate Bitcoin all the way down to $10K per token, right?

But if we get another 2-year bull run and Michael Saylor keeps buying and buying and buying, and then his average price is $175K and he gets liquidated from, like, $200K, maybe the market's trading from $250K down to $150K. I think the latter scenario is more probable, but there's no rogue trade in the history of Wall Street of this size that hasn't ended in absolute tears. The only question is, does it end in tears from current prices or from some astronomical future high price—and all these other SPVs, too? What do you think?

Avi Felman

The one way that we get out of this is that he stops buying. That is literally the one way that we get out of this: he just says, “Okay, I've accumulated almost 600,000 Bitcoin. I'm going to stop buying now, and I'm going to keep my average price at $70K, so that when Bitcoin hits $140K, it's really, really, really, really easy to refinance that debt.”

I know people really hate this because it's true, but at some point it's going to come spiraling down unless he stops buying. He can't—I mean, almost definitionally, if he keeps buying and he keeps buying at the highs, which he loves to do, he will blow up. The only way to stop him from blowing up is to not buy.

I am really, really, really looking forward to Cantor Fitzgerald and all these new MicroStrategy lookalikes figuring out—and I think I said this last time—but I really need them to figure out that you buy Bitcoin when it's down. Imagine the strength that Bitcoin would have if every time it went down 3% on a day or 2% on a day, that's when they bought.

That would be the best fucking thing on the planet if there was a literal plunge protection team on Bitcoin. Instead, there's just chase the dragon. It's insane. Basically, they're buying a ton of Bitcoin, pushing up the price. Don't get me wrong, I'm very grateful to Michael Saylor for everything that he's done for Bitcoin. But my advice to you, Saylor, if you ever watch this podcast, is: stop buying. Stop. You need to stop buying so much fucking Bitcoin.

Jonah Van Bourg

Oh, that's good rage bait, Avi. That is good rage bait. Look, how about this? If any of our listeners know Michael Saylor or any of the people who are running any of these SPVs, send this podcast to them and tell them, “Buy when it's down. Buy low, sell high.”

And you know what? Or don't sell high—just buy low. Don't buy high. I think maybe we'd be in a better place.

The most hilarious thing about all of this, Avi, is that Michael Saylor is running the exact same playbook as Three Arrows Capital, except instead of borrowing from shitty lenders like Voyager, Celsius, Anchorage, and BlockFi, he's borrowing from more sophisticated people.

Avi Felman

To be completely 100% fair, Jonah, Saylor's doing it with a better asset base, because Bitcoin is a great asset base. I love Bitcoin. If you're going to do this with any assets, maybe do it with equities. Do it with Bitcoin. Don't do it with AVAX, right? A 50% discount—I mean, that just doesn't make sense. Luna?

But it's the same playbook. It's the same playbook as Three Arrows. He's the Su Zhu of this cycle, except he's got more to work with than a bunch of locked Avalanche and GBTC that's trading at a massive premium. So, honestly, he scares the living daylights out of me, and this is not going to end well. That is the number-one concern that I have.

Jonah Van Bourg

The epic trade, Avi—the epic, epic trade. Scott Bessent, in an attempt to accumulate Bitcoin for the SBR, works with the DOJ to just target—find something wrong with MicroStrategy—and send them into a bankruptcy spiral in a targeted way, the way he broke the Bank of England, and then accumulate all of that Bitcoin for the American public out of bankruptcy.

5. Ads (Ledger)

I don't know if he would do that, but imagine if he just went after all of these SPVs and MicroStrategy and just auctioned their Bitcoin. It's possible. I mean, that's unlikely. That would be pretty sick.

6. Upcoming Plans

I think we've probably enraged enough people by now. Maybe we should say something nice.

Avi Felman

Yeah, Saylor's great. He's really helped the ecosystem. He's really, really, really—he's done a lot.

Anyway, what are you up to, Jonah? What's on the docket for today? Anything you're diving into?

Jonah Van Bourg

Probably going to watch Frozen again. My daughter got a cold, so we decided it was okay to put her in front of some Disney for a while. She saw Frozen, and now that's all she wants to talk about and think about. So, basically, I've got the soundtrack memorized. Probably going to watch Frozen again today.

What do you have going on, Avi?

Avi Felman

All right. Well, enjoy. I'm going to hit the gym after this and think about all the things that I've done wrong in my life to the point where I had to spend the last 10 minutes yelling about Michael Saylor.

Jonah Van Bourg

Thank you guys for bearing with me while it happened.

Avi Felman

At least you can go to the gym.

Jonah Van Bourg

I would like to, but my shoulder went out. Why? Because I'm 40 and that's just what happens.

Avi Felman

Not yet.

Jonah Van Bourg

That's true. I'm still 39. I'll have to wait.

Anyway, it was great talking to you, Avi. I loved it as always. This was awesome. Until next week.

Avi Felman

See you soon.

Saylor注定会爆仓吗? — 文字稿与摘要 | BidClub