加密专家解读稳定币与未来金融体系:Ali Yahya、Arianna Simpson 对谈
稳定币是本期最清晰的大众市场切入口:Ali 提到其年交易量约为16万亿美元,而区块链转账成本约不到1美分、耗时不到1秒。 这让 Bitcoin 最初“点对点电子现金”的愿景变成可用的支付系统,同时避开 Bitcoin 计价单位不稳定的问题。相比耗时3至7天、成本最高可达10%的跨境转账,稳定币带来的是真实的经济颠覆,而非表面改良。
美国预期出台的规则可能让稳定币发行商品化,并将经济价值导向区块链、Gas、钱包和分发渠道。 Ali 认为,合规美元稳定币可能变得可互换、信任度趋同,从而削弱当前发行方的价值捕获:USDC 由 Coinbase 与 Circle 组成的联盟发行,Tether 是另一家主要发行方。Solana、Ethereum、Sui,以及 Phantom 等接口型产品可能因此受益。他对立法时点的判断是强预期而非确定事实:很可能“今年发生”,即2025年。
需求已经覆盖巴基斯坦现金兑换稳定币的小亭、金融科技后端、企业资金管理、美元获取,以及潜在的 AI agent 钱包。 Arianna 以 ZAR 的案例让采用场景变得具体;Stripe 以稳定币为重点的大会和对 Bridge 的收购显示机构需求正在上升,而 SpaceX 的使用仅被描述为“据说”已经发生。稳定币可能走向“超级碗或巨型体育场”,而不再只是加密行业的独立乐队。
两位嘉宾已经逆转了对采用顺序的判断:金融应用如今更可能率先突破,去中心化社交和游戏则可能在加密得到合法化后跟进。 他们过去认为,无害的消费级产品会率先破局,因为在前一届政府时期,金融应用被视为非法;但 Farcaster 仍受社交关系图谱锁定、注意力稀缺和严苛用户体验门槛的约束。Arianna 的尖锐诊断是,用户“早已习惯成为产品”。
加密行业的 AI 叙事,与其说是“把 AI 放上链”,不如说是验证人类身份、去中心化算力、支持 agent 支付,并重建创作者的报酬机制。 Ali 用“AI 是共产主义的,加密是自由主义的”概括这一框架,从 Worldcoin 的隐私保护式人类证明延伸到 Gensyn 的闲置 GPU 市场。最具投机性的环节是归因:网络或许可以向支撑某条 LLM 答案的原始来源付费,但 AI 和加密机制本身都仍是开放问题。
Layer 1 的竞争是一场专业化交易,而非赢家已定:Bitcoin 是数字黄金,Ethereum 偏向去中心化的高价值资产和 DeFi,Solana 或 Sui 则偏向速度。 Ali 认为,链上 Nasdaq 无法运行在 Ethereum Layer 1 上;但 Solana 是否会“吃掉 Ethereum 的午餐”仍只是可能,最终结果“完全未定”。Arianna 同时给出更明确的近期判断:在政策环境更友好的情况下,现在“正是构建代币网络的好时候”。
初创公司仍有结构性空间,因为真正的加密采用要求现有巨头自我蚕食:它们必须放弃带来利润和权力的中心化控制。 Ali 讲述 Google X 曾表示不会“拿十英尺长的杆子碰加密”,其重点不只是监管观感:去中心化社交会削弱平台所有者,正如全面拥抱 AI 搜索会威胁 Google 的搜索业务。Libra/Novi“只能胎死腹中”,但人才外溢后仍在继续创业。
1. 稳定币终于让点对点现金真正可用
Ali 的出发点是历史性的:Bitcoin 2009 年白皮书承诺建立“点对点电子现金系统”,但其计价单位不稳定,使其难以成为支付工具;结算缓慢且低效,则把它推向了价值储藏资产。15或16年过去,基础设施成熟叠加稳定币,终于让小额支付变得可行。
运营层面的说法很直接,尽管只是约数:如今任何金额的区块链交易都可以“以不到1美分”的成本、“在不到1秒”内完成结算。Ali 将其与普通刷卡交易进行对比:交易要经过销售终端、支付处理商、发卡行、收单行和卡组织,每一环都要收费;国际转账还会重复这套链条,耗时3至7天,成本最高可达10%。
按稳定币年交易量约16万亿美元计算,Ali 看到的是实际牵引力,而非投机演示。他表示,Stripe、Revolut 和 Robinhood 等金融科技机构可以“拆掉”低效的后端;据说 SpaceX 等公司已经使用稳定币进行跨境资金管理,已被 Stripe 收购的 Bridge 也与这一应用场景有关。
Arianna 修正了“突然突破”的叙事:行业早在2017年和2018年就开始讨论稳定币在汇款、恶性通胀和美元获取方面的用途。真正改变的是基础设施——资金转移不再昂贵到让支付本身失去意义。对于面对不可靠货币的用户,美元等价的稳定资产无需投机,就能传递价值。
2. 监管可能将价值从发行方转移至底层通道和接口
最具现场感的样本是 ZAR,这是一家在巴基斯坦运营的加速器公司:人们把本币带到熟悉的小型移动支付亭,换取稳定币,再进入围绕这一“原子单位”搭建的金融服务。Arianna 认为,货币不稳定的市场能立刻理解这一产品;对银行而言,它则是一个没那么令人恐惧、相对“非投机化”的切入口。
当前价值重心仍在发行端——由 Coinbase 和 Circle 组成的联盟发行的 USDC,以及 Tether——但 Ali 强烈相信,抵押品和合规立法很可能在2025年落地。如果合规美元稳定币变得可互换、可赎回且信任度相近,发行就可能商品化;价值则会迁移至 Solana、Ethereum 和 Sui 等赚取 Gas 的底层网络,以及其被投公司 Phantom 这样的终端接口。Ali 认为 Phantom 很可能处于有利位置。
稳定币也可能成为机器货币。Arianna 表示,不能把用户的银行账户或信用卡交给 AI agent,但可以给它一个加密钱包;Ali 进一步推演,数百万乃至数十亿个软件 agent 不可能通过复杂、部分依赖人工的中介系统运行。完全软件原生、全球化的结算层,才是更合理的匹配。
3. 金融应用先行,消费级加密产品等待突破口
对 Erik 提出的“iPhone 时刻”问题,答案是有条件的肯定:Arianna 认为稳定币胜算不错,但采用未必来自单一产品。游戏曾带来一轮增长,AI 和稳定币可能带来下一轮。Chris 的比喻点出了潜在覆盖面:“你想当独立乐队,还是想登上超级碗或巨型体育场?”
Erik 追问:如果去中心化社交仍是愿景,为什么它至今没有规模化?Arianna 给出的答案来自需求端。Farcaster 的体验可能不错,但用户加入是为了社交关系图谱,而关系图谱并不容易导出;用户注意力有限,却能容忍广告,并且“早已习惯成为产品”。过去10年,没有任何大型社交网络——无论是否加密——真正从零崛起。
Ali 明确改变了采用顺序:团队过去“曾经相信”社交和游戏产品会率先突破,因为 DeFi 和稳定币被视为非法;现在,金融应用更可能先到来,并为其他应用铺平道路。Arianna 举出的消费级案例是 Blackbird:一个“餐厅版 Amex 积分”网络,利用 Web3 让餐厅和消费者共同拥有网络。她随后表示,如果稳定币支付能够降低交易成本,同时网络所有权又能改善餐厅利润,那么这种模式相对于抽取利润的外卖平台就很有意思。
现有巨头之所以举步维艰,是因为这种架构直接攻击它们的控制权。Ali 回忆,甚至 Google X 也曾表示“不会拿十英尺长的杆子碰加密”,理由包括观感、监管和声誉;但更深层的障碍是自我蚕食。去中心化社交图谱会移除中心所有者;同样,全面拥抱 AI 也可能迫使 Google 用 LLM 替代利润丰厚的搜索模式。
4. 加密技术或可为 AI 互联网提供身份认证、去中心化算力和支付
Ali 借用了 Peter Thiel 在2018年的玩笑——“AI 是共产主义的,加密是自由主义的”——把两种技术描述为彼此制衡的力量。AI 正用具有人类外观的 agent、深度伪造和合成媒体淹没互联网;密码学则可以验证数据和人的真实性。更新后的1990年代那句老话不再是“没人知道你是一条狗”,而是“在互联网上,没人知道你是人类”。
Worldcoin 是他提出的具体人类证明案例:Orb 读取生物特征,同时用零知识证明保护隐私;Ali 表示,生物特征数据从未离开 Orb,离开的只有一个派生出的密码学对象,而该对象无法反推出底层数据。目标是在不暴露个人生物特征记录的前提下,证明某个线上行为背后确实有一个人。
对于高度集中的 AI 基础设施,Ali 指向 Gensyn:GPU 所有者贡献闲置算力,需要进行模型训练或推理的人则使用这些算力。该网络把异构机器组合成类似统一去中心化云的基础设施。他承认其中存在“许多艰难的技术挑战”,但认为未被使用的分布式算力可能更高效;密码学还可以验证工作负载——包括推荐模型——是否被正确执行,以及是否具备其声称的属性,例如无偏。
最具未来感的提议,针对的是 AI 可能摧毁的媒体经济:LLM 直接给出答案,搜索广告、创作者点击和曾经支付给每个参与者的交易安排都可能被消除。如果研究人员能够将输出归因于训练输入,加密网络或许可以向原始贡献者补偿;但 Ali 认为,归因机制和支付网络本身都仍是开放问题。主要 AI 实验室基本没有将加密纳入考量,推动者主要是初创公司。
5. 更友好的政策重新打开代币市场,但链的赢家仍未确定
Arianna 的近期判断由政策驱动:监管机构曾让即便出于善意的美国创业者也不敢推出网络,而去掉代币往往意味着他们“无法真正实现自己的愿景”。新一届领导层上台后,“正是人们构建代币网络的好时候”。Facebook 的 Libra/Novi 展示了错失的分发机会:它“只能胎死腹中”,但相关人才外溢后仍在继续创业。
Ali 认为需要纠正的核心误解,是把每条区块链都看成单纯的货币账本。Ethereum 是一台“完整的计算机”,其程序“拥有自己的生命”:它们可以作出几乎不受干预的承诺,即使程序作者也难以改变。加密技术因此颠倒了旧有的软硬件权力关系——提供通用硬件的矿工或验证者,不能简单控制其上运行的应用。
Ali 将 Bitcoin 视为某种数字黄金:尽管价格波动,其简单性和抗变更特征帮助它成为持久的价值储藏资产。Ethereum 的历史和去中心化程度,使其适合高价值 DeFi 和资产发行;Solana 与 Sui 偏重性能,更适合支付或链上 Nasdaq——Ali 认为后者无法运行在 Ethereum Layer 1 上。Solana 或许会“吃掉 Ethereum 的午餐”,但 Ali 预计这些生态最终很可能各自找到细分位置,结果“完全未定”。
Crypto can help decentralize the power structures that are emerging in AI. Chris always talks about, “Do you want to be the indie band, or do you want to play the Super Bowl, the mega-stadium?” I think stablecoins really have the ability to appeal to a much broader audience. There’s something like $16 trillion in volume on stablecoins per year. I actually think it’s a great time for folks to be building token networks. Crypto is a fundamentally radical set of technologies that is very hard for incumbent players to adopt and run with, precisely because it is so fundamentally disruptive to the way they do things.
Ali, Arianna, welcome to the podcast.
Thank you. Great to be here.
I’m excited to do a deep dive with you on where we’re at right now in the space. Crypto is a space where people have long been excited about the vision and the potential, and people have also long been skeptical about the use cases—what’s happening and what’s actually working. So here we are in May 2025. Why don’t you give us some context on what’s actually worked so far, or what’s working right now? Maybe, Ali, why don’t you start off?
Sure, happy to. It’s quite interesting because if you go back all the way to 2009, when the original Bitcoin white paper was published, one of the first few lines of the paper describes Bitcoin as a peer-to-peer electronic cash system—a payment system—which was the original vision behind what a blockchain could do. It’s really taken us 15 or 16 years to get to a point where the technology is mature enough to actually make that a reality.
This is now manifesting with stablecoins. Some of the big issues that Bitcoin had, which made it impossible for Bitcoin to become that peer-to-peer electronic payment system, were, first, that it was extremely inefficient and very slow. It still is, and therefore it has become more of a store-of-value system as opposed to stablecoins. Second, Bitcoin is not a stable unit of account, so it’s very hard to use it for payments.
Since then, one of the big things that has happened is that the infrastructure has matured tremendously. We’re now at a level where a transaction of any amount of money can be done for less than a penny in cost and in under a second, roughly. Those numbers are approximate, but that finally makes something like a peer-to-peer transaction of a few dollars viable on the blockchain.
That, combined with the regulatory clarity we’re having now under the new administration, makes stablecoins something that’s really beginning to happen. That’s perhaps the biggest thing going on in the crypto world at the moment: stablecoins are beginning to gain real traction.
There’s something like $16 trillion in volume on stablecoins per year, and many traditional financial institutions are beginning to use stablecoins to rip out a lot of the back end of their financial systems. These are fintech companies—think Stripe, think Revolut, think Robinhood. Some companies in the traditional financial system that rely heavily on the traditional system are now realizing that stablecoins are a much better way to do things.
That’s the biggest thing going on, and we believe it will likely lead to a cascading trend of adoption. Once stablecoins become more of a mainstay of the way the financial system works, that opens the door for many of the other, more advanced and futuristic ideas that crypto has introduced, like DeFi, to begin gaining adoption as well. I think that, as a result, will lead to all the other things we believe crypto can offer really starting to ramp up.
One interesting thing, though, is that stablecoins—at least those of us who are in the industry full-time have been thinking about them for years and years. I remember talking about them in 2017 and 2018. There was always a narrative about them being useful for remittances or in countries that have had hyperinflation.
For those countries, Bitcoin is a better store of value than their native currencies because sometimes it goes up, unlike those currencies, which only go down. But it’s not ideal because, as Ali mentioned, it’s not a stable unit of account. It’s interesting to see that even though this has been talked about for years, it’s now really having its moment.
To Ali’s point, a big part of why that’s happening is that the infrastructure has evolved to a point where you can now efficiently move money without having to spend a huge amount of money to move it, among other things. I think that’s why we’re starting to really see it shine now.
I would also add that it’s intersecting in interesting ways with other trends. We’re still super early in this, but there’s obviously a lot of talk about AI and agents. If you want to dispatch your agent to transact on your behalf, you can’t really give it your bank account or your credit card. Instead, you can give it your crypto wallet.
This interplay of agents buying or spending money on behalf of their users with stablecoins is a really interesting theme that we’re starting to explore.
To that point, it’s kind of ridiculous to think about the way the financial system works today. Even a normal domestic financial transaction, where you go to a coffee shop and buy a coffee with a credit card, involves the point of sale, the payment processor, the issuing bank, the acquiring bank, and the credit card network. Each of these intermediaries takes a cut—a fee on the transaction—to add up to something like multiple percentage points on the transaction.
That’s the case in a domestic transaction. If the transaction happens to be international, then that entire stack of participants and intermediaries gets duplicated and mirrored on the other side, to the point that any kind of financial transaction across borders is insane in terms of its inefficiency. It can take up to 3 to 7 days to move money from one country to another, and it can cost up to 10% of the transaction to do it.
When you have a technology that can move an arbitrary amount of money from anywhere in the world to any other place in the world for under a penny and in under a second, that truly is transformative. It’ll be very disruptive to the way the financial system works.
To Arianna’s point about AI agents, it’s inconceivable that a human who wants to participate in the financial system would have to go through all of that inefficiency and deal with all of these arcane human intermediaries, some of which aren’t even really automated. That’s inconceivable, and the only real way to bring millions, or potentially billions or more, of AI agents online into the financial system is through a technology that’s fully based on software and as efficient as the crypto rails that are now available and can be used.
Say more about some of the use cases that stablecoins are currently enabling. Is it mostly at an institutional level? Is it at a consumer level? What are the common interactions people are having with stablecoins right now?
I think it’s both. It depends on what markets you’re talking about. There’s a company in our current accelerator batch called ZAR, which is operating in Pakistan. They’re creating a network of small shops. If you’ve been to Africa or elsewhere, you’ve seen these little mobile-money kiosks where you can put money on your phone and do that sort of thing.
They’re using that network to create a way for people to come in, deposit their local currency, and get stablecoins. Then they’re building a whole suite of financial services around this as the atomic unit.
A lot of countries have unstable currencies or other financial issues, so holding dollars—or the equivalent in stablecoins—is very appealing. They immediately understand the value of this and are attracted to using it.
I think it goes from that all the way through to banks and financial institutions. In many cases, there’s been an interest in crypto, and some banks and financial institutions have wanted to get involved, but it’s been very unclear how they could do it. That’s largely because of the lack of regulatory clarity, but also because crypto can be a little scary. It hasn’t always been obvious for them to see a path: How do we get involved? What’s the way we can bring this to our consumers?
Stablecoins are a baby step in that sense. It’s much clearer what the value proposition is, and it’s a nonspeculative use case. I think it’s a good entry point for some of these larger institutions.
Ali, why don’t you give us a brief overview to help us understand the stablecoin landscape—what big companies or types of companies have emerged or will emerge as a result of it, what it means for the broader crypto startup ecosystem, and how it impacts it?
Right now, at the center of all the action are the stablecoin issuers. Two of the major ones are USDC, which is created by a consortium between Coinbase and Circle, and Tether. Both of these are the two biggest issuers of stablecoins today.
Both stablecoins operate on top of blockchains. So another important piece of the stack is the infrastructure on top of which some of these stablecoins operate. Then you have a collection of companies at the periphery that generally help connect the crypto world to the external world. That would include wallets and some of the fintech companies that are using blockchain technology as the backend but have a frontend that looks more like a Web2-type frontend and doesn't expose the crypto aspects to the end user as much. All those players will be part of the story as well.
One of the things that we talk a ton about is what this stack will look like end to end as the space evolves. One of the exciting things that we're hoping will happen soon is that we'll get legislation that sets the rules of the road for stablecoins and for what is required for an issuer to create a stablecoin. What kind of collateral is needed for a stablecoin to be compliant?
We strongly believe it'll likely happen this year. It will, to some extent, commoditize the issuance layer because it'll be easier for new issuers to emerge and create their own stablecoins that are also USD-denominated, to the point that those new stablecoins are somewhat fungible and interchangeable with USDC and Tether. If all of them are compliant, then you can trust that all of them are likely to be ultimately redeemable for a dollar and equally trustworthy.
That means issuers may no longer be the ones that capture all the value the way that they do now. Instead, a lot of the value might be captured by some of the other layers. For example, the infrastructure is likely to capture a lot of the value because a lot of the activity—a lot of these stablecoin transactions—happens on blockchains like Solana, Ethereum, Sui, and a number of other important Layer 1 blockchains. All of those require payment of gas for those transactions. Those blockchains are likely to be important players in the way that this unfolds.
Then I think the other end of the stack will be the endpoint: the user, the interface that connects this whole crypto world to the end user. Wallets will likely be important. One of our portfolio companies, Phantom, is likely to be well positioned as a gateway or an interface for people to interact with stablecoins and get exposure to U.S. dollars, regardless of where they may be. So that's maybe a bit of a layout for what the ecosystem looks like at the moment.
It seems like for years there's been this question of what's going to make it so that there are hundreds of millions of users—or a billion users. I'm not sure what it is at the moment across all of crypto. People have asked before: What's the iPhone moment? What's the product that everyone's going to be using that's also a platform for everything? Is it stablecoins or something else? How do we think about that?
I think the odds are good that stablecoins are that thing. I also don't think that there necessarily needs to be one thing. We mentioned AI; Ali has made some investments in that category, and we've done some as a team. I think there are going to be different waves that bring in different users.
A while ago, Web3 games were a big entry point. Now it's AI and stablecoins. I think the users do come in waves. A lot of it tracks the cycles that we see every couple of years in crypto. Chris always talks about, “Do you want to be an indie band, or do you want to play at the Super Bowl or the megastadium?” Stablecoins really have the ability to appeal to a much broader audience because, as we said, it's just a use case that makes sense. It's pretty clear what the value proposition is, so it appeals to a broader audience.
Yeah, in part also because it addresses a very real pain point. Whether it be people in third-world countries that want exposure to the dollar because their local currency may not be as reliable, people who want to move money between borders—we talked about how that can be extremely inefficient—or even companies that want to move money across borders, they still have to deal with all that inefficiency. Stablecoins are apparently already being used by companies like SpaceX for treasury management, to move money from one country to another in a way that's much more efficient.
Yeah, I believe they were using Bridge, which Stripe has now acquired. I mean, it's interesting: Stripe Sessions, their big conference, was all about stablecoins. So many of the talk tracks last week were about that, and I think it's really indicative of the fact that this is permeating not just crypto companies but more broadly.
The other necessary element, in addition to the infrastructure improvements and all that, is that now we have a friendlier regulatory regime, which is interested in seeing these kinds of things flourish.
One thing I've always appreciated about crypto investing is that you guys, as domain experts, don't just need to understand the technology, which is complex enough in itself. You also need to understand the policy regime, law, monetary policy, economics, foreign policy, and how all these things are intersecting with crypto startups.
Well, I'm certainly not the domain expert on some of the policy stuff, but we've assembled a super-strong team who's been very involved in D.C. and trying to push the ball forward for the whole industry.
You mentioned Stripe getting deeply involved in crypto. It's interesting because people often contrast it with AI and say, “Hey, AI is mostly a sustaining innovation,” and that, of course, there are massive companies that have been formed, but a lot of the gains have gone to the biggest companies. Whereas crypto is mostly a startup, though some bigger companies are getting involved too.
It's funny: Maybe Facebook was just a few years too early. If they launched Libra in a more friendly regime, might that have worked? How do you think about the startup-versus-incumbent distinction in the space?
Yeah, crypto is a fundamentally radical set of technologies that is very hard for incumbent players to adopt and run with, precisely because it is so fundamentally disruptive to the way that they do things.
I was at Google a while back. I was at Google X, working on a robotics project, but I was already very interested in crypto. Google X is supposed to be the moonshot factory, super innovative and open to new ideas, and open to starting new companies, but they don't want new ideas. I tried at Facebook, by the way—same thing. Google would not touch crypto with a 10-foot pole unless it was something very vanilla, like, “We will run a node,” or whatever.
Were they like, “This makes no sense,” or were they like, “It's evil”?
I think they fundamentally didn't get it. They were afraid about the optics, the regulatory association with it, and the reputational consequences. Also, the whole Web3 vision—the vision of decentralizing web services, which is, I think, the most futuristic vision for crypto—is fundamentally disruptive to the way that these companies work.
These are centralized companies that make money and have power precisely by virtue of being so centralized. If you build something like a social network that's fully decentralized and has no core central company—no monopolistic tech giant worth $44 billion that controls what recommendation algorithm is used, who gets to follow whom, all of the data, and the social graph itself—then a company no longer has a business model, right?
It's a very different business model to build a social network that's decentralized in the way that, say, a company like Farcaster currently is. For a company like Facebook, or Google in its own way, to decentralize itself and truly embrace crypto with arms wide open, it would have to cannibalize its own business model.
I think that's actually becoming true for AI as well. I think it was very true that AI was a sustaining innovation before, but it's gotten so powerful that there are many elements of it that are disruptive. If Google wanted to really embrace AI, it would have to replace search.
Search. Yeah, exactly.
With an AI, with an LLM, instead of its current model. Of course, that's a hard thing for it to do given that it's the insanely profitable business model that it currently has.
Yeah. Is that still the vision—that we'll have decentralized social networks and decentralized marketplaces? Or where are we on that vision? What are the bottlenecks to networks at scale that are truly decentralized and competing with some of the centralized ones? Is it technological, or is it that people just don't really care about this in the same way? Why hasn't it happened yet?
I think it's mostly a consumer preference issue. Some of the products have gotten really good. Farcaster, for example, has a very good product experience, but it's challenging to get people to switch because the reason you're on a social network is for the graph, and it's difficult to export an entire graph.
Users are accustomed to being the product. If you're not paying for the product, you are the product. In many cases, consumers are used to that experience. Ads are annoying, but they're not necessarily that bad, so people accept them and don't think too much about it.
This is interesting because if you look at all of the big social networks, none of them have been started in the last decade. That's not true just of crypto; it's true in general. It's very difficult to get over the hurdle of reaching a critical mass whereby people actually say, “Oh, I'm in the network, and I'm going to stay in the network.”
It's not just a crypto thing. It's difficult nowadays. People only have so much attention, and with the networks that exist, most of the attention span has already been captured. I think we may need to see some of the existing ones falter before there's enough room for some of the new ones to really take hold. But we'll see.
We used to believe that these ideas and these companies would be the first to gain adoption. That was largely because all of the financial use cases—the DeFi use cases, even the stablecoin use cases—were illegal, as was the case under the previous administration. It felt to us like the more innocuous-seeming social network and gaming use cases would be more likely to gain adoption, and that would be the gateway for other things to eventually become legitimate and gain regulatory acceptance.
Now that the regulatory landscape has shifted so much, to the point at which it's a much friendlier landscape, we have all these traditional financial institutions getting involved, and stablecoins are really having a moment. Combined with the infrastructure clicking into place, it's now much clearer that the more financial use cases are likely to happen first. Those will act as a legitimizing force for the rest of the space, and then the consumer use cases, which we still believe in, will take longer.
It's very hard to get those things right. The bar that a consumer has for the quality of a consumer-facing application is extremely high, and crypto has not yet figured out all of the UX challenges. The seamlessness and usability challenges of crypto are still nascent on that front, so it'll take longer for all of those things to get resolved.
In the meantime, we have all these other financial use cases, which I think will solidify the technology, legitimize the space for a broader group of people, and get more entrepreneurs to come into the space.
On the point of the attention span, or lack thereof, of consumers, it's interesting when you see a new network created around an area that doesn't already have somebody in the non-Web3 world occupying it. A good example of this is Blackbird, which is a network for restaurant lovers. You can think about it as Amex points for restaurants.
They're occupying a space that nobody really owns right now. The credit card companies kind of do, but it's still a so-so experience at best. When you have a great entrepreneur who is really deep in restaurant technology, like Ben Leventhal, the founder, tackling a problem like that and bringing a consumer Web2 experience while using Web3 to allow the restaurants and consumers to actually have ownership in the network—which wouldn't be possible in a Web2 context—it's pretty interesting.
You couldn't really give people the same ownership if you look at platforms like Uber Eats or DoorDash. The restaurants have to work with them because their margins are so slim, and they need as much volume as they can get. But it's not great because the platforms are, in many cases, quite extractive and dig deeper into the restaurants' margins.
If you're using stablecoin payments to bring down transaction costs and also giving restaurants actual ownership in the network, thereby helping their bottom line, it's really interesting.
Ali, let's go a bit deeper on AI and the intersection between AI and crypto. What's working there, or where are you most excited?
Peter Thiel had this tongue-in-cheek line back in 2018, which I think rings true: AI is communist and crypto is libertarian. The meta point is that these 2 technologies are very different from one another, and in many ways, they're counterweights for each other. There are many ways in which they're intersecting, and we can talk through a few of them.
One of the most important ways is that AI is creating an overabundance of media and human-looking entities that can pretend to be human, as well as deepfakes of video or audio that seem very human. It's hard to know whether you're looking at something that's real or something that's purely generated.
Crypto happens to be a really good technology to help authenticate media or authenticate data in general. One of the ways in which these 2 worlds will collide is that there are crypto projects working on, among many other things, proof of humanity. That would allow anyone—a user on the internet—to prove that they actually are human, so that anyone on the other end can know that they're interacting with a human and not an AI bot or an AI agent.
Worldcoin is one of these companies and one of our portfolio companies. They've built an orb that uses biometric information and zero-knowledge proofs to keep all of the biometric data private. The data itself never leaves the orb. Only a code, or a cryptographic object derived from the biometric data, ever leaves the orb. From that cryptographic object, it's not possible to infer anything about the biometric data itself.
It's a technology that allows anyone to prove their humanity on the internet. There was that famous line in the ’90s that, on the internet, nobody knows you're a dog. That's very true now, in 2025: on the internet, nobody knows you're human. You could be anything. You could be a dog, or an AI agent, or anything else.
That's one way that cryptography and blockchains will help deal with the immensity and abundance of signal and noise that AI will generate.
Another big one is that crypto can help decentralize the power structures that are emerging in AI. At the moment, it seems like there will be a small number of very powerful players in the AI world. Even though it's unclear whether there are things like network effects that drive defensibility, there are just a handful of really powerful players in the space, at least at the model layer—OpenAI and the other big companies that build foundation models.
Crypto offers an alternative for creating AI systems that are more decentralized. An example of this is a company called Gensyn, which is also in our portfolio. It builds a kind of marketplace for compute. Someone on one side of the marketplace can provide their idle GPU capacity to the network, and someone on the other side, who might want to use the GPU compute for training a model or doing inference on a model, can make use of all of that compute through the network.
The network manages all of these heterogeneous computational resources to create something that feels like a unified cloud on which you can run machine learning and AI workloads. It does that in a way that's fully decentralized, not controlled by a single company, and could actually be more efficient than a cloud by virtue of using capacity that otherwise would just go idle and unused.
It's capacity that's locked away in all these pockets that are far removed from one another, rather than being in one particular data center. There are many hard technical challenges to get there, but a lot of smart people are working toward figuring that out, and we're very optimistic that it will happen.
It'll also allow machine learning workloads to run in a way that's verifiable. This way, you don't have to trust a centralized company, like Facebook or one of the social media companies, that the machine learning model—the AI model—that they're running for, say, a recommendation algorithm is unbiased or has particular properties.
You can actually, with cryptography, verify that those things are the case and that these things are executed in a way that’s correct. You can use some of these decentralized systems for that as well.
The final one, which I think is the most futuristic and the most challenging, is having crypto help AI figure out the new business models for the internet. One of the issues that AI will create with the current business models of the internet is that right now, the way the internet works is that you have an aggregator, like a search engine, driving traffic to creators of media—say, someone who has written a blog post or someone who has a page that has content. There are ads as the business model that mediates that whole interaction. That entire business model goes away if you just have an AI that gives you the answer you’re looking for.
So instead of doing a search on Google, getting exposed to a bunch of ads, clicking through to a website, and having all of those parties be happy because the business model includes all of them, now you just interact with an LLM and get the answer immediately. You never click through to the final page, and you never get exposed to an ad. That completely changes the way that the internet works. We’re going to need new business models for the internet if that’s the case.
One idea is that, through a lot of these research efforts to figure out attribution in the training of a machine-learning model, you could determine what pieces of data contributed to a particular output. If you’re asking an LLM a question, you want to know what pieces of data used to train that LLM contributed to the answer that the LLM ultimately gives you. If you could know that, then you could come up with a business model that rewards the people who originally contributed that data. Crypto could be part of that.
There are open problems on both sides. You have to figure out this attribution challenge in the AI world, and there are people working on that problem. Then there’s a challenge on the crypto side: How do you build a network that can use that information to compensate all of the parties involved in having the AI actually give you what you ultimately want?
Fascinating. Are the big labs interested in crypto? Do they need to be interested in crypto for this to happen, or is this largely coming from startups? Sam Altman, of course, at OpenAI, but also with Worldcoin, has some familiarity. What can you say about this?
For the most part, I don’t think so. The AI labs are just running with AI, and there’s so much that’s exciting in that world that crypto doesn’t really factor in at all. But there are crypto companies that are very interested in AI and are thinking about the ways in which crypto will ultimately make a difference in that world.
The company I mentioned, Gensyn, for example, has founders who are very deep in AI. They have an AI background, but they also happen to have a deep commitment to building things as open-source networks that are ultimately decentralized. They’re among the few people who really do straddle both worlds.
Zooming out a little bit, what are some of the biggest misconceptions people have about the space right now? Maybe Arianna, starting with you.
For the last few years, it’s been really challenging to launch a token network in the United States in particular because there was a lack of clear legislation. There were also very aggressive folks in several agencies working on essentially not allowing entrepreneurs to launch networks. That applied to entrepreneurs who were very well-meaning and very much wanted to do things by the book.
One of the challenges was that people obviously didn’t want to end up in legal trouble, and therefore, in many cases, they pulled back their plans on that front, which really impeded their progress on the product side as well. They couldn’t really build their vision because I think tokens are part and parcel of what’s valuable and interesting about crypto. If you remove that piece, it doesn’t make any sense.
The misconception, perhaps, is that the situation is very different now. We have a much friendlier administration in place, and we have a very different situation in terms of the leadership of these agencies. I actually think it’s a great time for people to be building token networks, and I think that message hasn’t necessarily fully made it out there. I’m hopeful that more entrepreneurs realize that the situation is again very different from what it was just a few months ago and start to come back in force.
I completely agree with that. I think another big one is that, outside of our immediate circles—if you go outside of the world of tech—it’s shocking to me that people continue to think of crypto as just a thing that’s supposed to be money, or they think of a blockchain as a ledger for money.
I think that misconception comes from Bitcoin: Bitcoin tried to be money and only money, and it wasn’t really trying to be anything else. The misconception is that Ethereum is like Bitcoin, and that Ethereum is actually the silver to Bitcoin’s gold—that all crypto really is is just another attempt to do what Bitcoin did.
The fact that Ethereum is fundamentally different from Bitcoin is still not widely understood. Ethereum is actually a kind of computer where you can build all sorts of different applications, and the software that runs on top of that computer has unique properties that no other software has ever had.
These programs that run on a blockchain like Ethereum have a life of their own. They’re programs that can make commitments that no one has to trust anyone to believe in. They’re essentially free from interference by anyone, including the people who originally wrote the program. That’s a very unique property that no other kind of software has.
It’s a kind of technology that inverts the power relationship between the software and the hardware. Historically, the hardware has always had power over the software, because whoever controls the hardware can turn off the software or change it in some way. In crypto, with blockchains, the hardware is a commodity. The people who run the miners, for example, or validators in the blockchain context, don’t have any power over the software that runs on top.
That’s what makes a blockchain unique, and that’s what makes it capable of doing so much more than just money. You can build far more sophisticated primitives. Stablecoins are the first thing, but the things that come after—things like DeFi, where you can build much more sophisticated financial primitives on-chain, or some of these other, more futuristic ideas, where you can do AI, you can do DePIN, and you can do consumer-facing applications like decentralized social networks—all of that relies on the properties of a blockchain computer that’s not just a ledger. It’s a full-on computer on which you can build applications.
Maybe, Ali, can you give a bit of an update on the smart-contract-platform wars as an outsider, or someone who’s paid attention at certain times and not at certain times? What I’ve heard or gleaned is that Bitcoin, as you mentioned, has tried to be money, but there’s a bit of a Bitcoin-builder movement. I’m not sure if that’s led to anything particularly meaningful in the space.
My understanding is that Ethereum has tried to optimize across multiple dimensions, both trying to be money and trying to be the base layer for a decentralized internet, and has committed to decentralization in a way that some people think is at the sacrifice of usability, whereas Solana hasn’t had the same commitments to decentralization and is really optimized for usability.
First, is that a fair characterization, or how would you edit the characterization? And second, how has this all played out? Where are we right now on that landscape?
That’s actually a really good characterization. The way that I would break things down is that there’s a very large and multidimensional trade-off space, and it’s very hard for any one system to cover the entire space. It makes sense that you’d end up with different systems specialized for different things and, as a result, having different use cases and different value propositions.
Bitcoin, I think, has been extremely successful at becoming a kind of digital gold. It’s been extremely volatile, but I think there’s this belief—there’s a memetic value—that Bitcoin is, in the long term, a pretty good store of value that will be around for a very, very long time. It’s not going anywhere and will have properties that are desirable and aren’t provided by other things, like fiat or gold itself.
It’s funny. It’s only been around for less than 20 years, but in my head, I sort of treat it as gold. It’s like it’s going to be there forever.
Exactly.
Exactly. So, it’s really succeeded at that, and I think some of the things that have helped it succeed are the fact that it is so hard to change, the fact that it is so simple, and the fact that you can’t do that much with it. Those things are disadvantages in some contexts, but they’re real advantages when trying to solve for that particular thing.
Then there are all the other smart contract platforms that are trying to do much more and are trying to be computers. Ethereum lands in some part of the trade-off space here where it really optimizes for decentralization. It is fully decentralized, and so it’s hard for Ethereum to change quickly because there are a lot of stakeholders and a lot of people who want to be able to influence its direction.
The choices that it has made have made it a pretty good platform for some of the higher-stakes DeFi applications, or for, for example, the issuance of new assets on Ethereum. That might be the default simply because it’s been around the longest, and its high level of decentralization makes it very suitable for that.
Then there are blockchains like Solana and Sui, which are extremely high-performance. They are very well suited for transactions, payments, and things that do require that level of performance. If you wanted to build something like the Nasdaq exchange on-chain, there’s no way you’re doing that on Ethereum L1. You probably need a blockchain with the level of performance that Solana, Sui, or some of the other, more modern blockchains have.
I expect that each of these ecosystems will likely find its niche. The future is obviously very uncertain, and there’s all this talk about how maybe Solana will eat Ethereum’s lunch. That’s a possibility, but it’s still wide open, is basically what you’re saying.
Yeah, it’s wide open, and there are a lot of ways in which it could play out.
Yeah. So, Arianna, I want to double-click on your point about the misconception in terms of how the policy regime has changed. If you look at the Novi/Libra project—it had 7 different names, so whichever one you want to use—that was something that could have been incredibly interesting because you have Facebook, now Meta, with such an enormous distribution network. It already has all the users, and integrating payments into that via crypto made all the sense in the world.
Obviously, they were told in no uncertain terms that was not something they could proceed with, and unfortunately, the whole project kind of died on the vine.
I will say it went on to flourish in other forms because we’re investors in Mysten Labs, and they spun out of there. There have actually been a number of great teams who came from there, so I think the diaspora of talent has continued to fight the good fight and build. But in general, that’s another project that, as it was initially conceived, had to die on the vine because of that.
Yeah. I think, as investors, it’s not necessarily our job to envision what is possible, but rather to recognize it when we see it. I’m personally very excited to see what entrepreneurs come up with in the next couple of years, now that we have a new opportunity space.