解决了 Polymarket 难题的大学生——BrokieTrades
BrokieTrades 的第一个优势来自市场结构：Polymarket 的“neg risk”机制，可以把某一结果的 No 份额转换成所有互斥替代结果的 Yes 份额。 他在持有 Vance Yes 份额的同时，对 J.D. Vance 使用了这一机制，导致部分显示的盈亏数字具有误导性；当等价价格出现偏离时，机器人也会套利同一身份关系。“有时你能以更便宜的价格拿到份额。”
他的地缘政治交易流程依赖于判断激励机制和信息源质量，而不只是最快对新闻做出反应。 当 Ali Khamenei 被撤下的合约价格接近 50¢时，BrokieTrades 买入 Yes，因为以色列报道描述了一次定点打击，而交易员相信伊朗官方媒体。当 Mojtaba Khamenei 的价格约为 5–15¢时，一些小众大学和非营利机构的信息让他提前看到了相关线索，之后伊朗 clerics 投票选他为领导人。他认为自己的优势在于：“人们不知道该相信哪些媒体来源。”
BrokieTrades 认为 Mojtaba Khamenei 已经死亡，但也意识到，对现实判断正确并不一定能让合约盈利。 他的理论是，任命一个已经死亡的领导人符合 IRGC 的利益，因为这样能集中权力、避免内部冲突；而官方关于其幸存的说法听起来“太过牵强”。他持有 Mojtaba 年底前出局的 Yes 仓位，但担心 IRGC 能维持这场欺骗：“他们没有动力说 Mojtaba 已经死了。”
他的石油仓位区分短期升级与长期走向：未来 3 天做多石油，但通过 Hyperliquid、尤其是 Brent，做空大约 6 个月。 他认为短期升级的概率约为 30%——同时承认自己无法具体解释这个数字——而把战争在 6 个月内结束的概率定在 80%以上。他认为 Hyperliquid 的资金费率定价失真，耐心做空可以在不承担过高持仓成本的情况下获利。
最难判断的变量是时间，这使永续合约在方向比结果日期更清晰时更具吸引力。 他曾押注美国对委内瑞拉采取行动，选择了 2025 年末这一时间点，结果据他说事件发生在 2026 年 1 月 3 日；伊朗意外停火也打击了他的石油多头。主持人的反驳很关键：霍尔木兹海峡中断、俄罗斯炼厂受损以及供应链后续影响，都会让石油在第一根急跌 K 线之后更难继续做空。
他的可重复规则是：必须要求一个足够大且能够解释的优势，理解交易对手，并接受不交易本身也是一种仓位。 他说优势应该超过 20–30%；他估计，强预测市场交易员中只有 5–10%能在其他交易品种上盈利；他认为，散户的地缘政治知识可以补足能源基金在供需方面的专业能力；在 Polymarket 上，他约一半的工作通过与持相反观点的交易员交流完成。“如果你无法解释为什么市场还没有定价进去，那就不应该做这笔交易。”
谈到 2028 年，BrokieTrades 认为 Rubio 可能不会参选，因为他更喜欢继续担任国务卿，而且大概率会输。 主持人把 Rubio 描述为潜在的 2032 年候选人；BrokieTrades 回应称“2020 年大选已经被做局”，但根据上下文，字幕中的年份存在歧义。他认为 AOC 的可能性低于 Gavin Newsom，但也表示，如果 AOC 明显崛起，反而可能提高 Rubio 参选的概率。他不会因为 Trump 每一句话就交易，因为“Trump 每天说的都不一样”；已经达成的停火等具体公告，才是更清晰的信号。
BrokieTrades 认为，他的策略目前的上限是“每年几百万美元”，约束来自流动性、交易频率和市场广度。 要达到这一规模，他需要从地缘政治扩展出去，保持“更多地在线”，并部署更多机器人；Polymarket 永续合约也可能扩大机会集合。他最自豪的不是某一次惊人的得分，而是在最近提高仓位之前，持续累积许多笔过去只有几千美元规模的小额盈利。
1. Neg risk 将市场管道变成可交易优势
BrokieTrades 解释说，当 A、B、C 覆盖全部可能结果时，持有 B 的 No，在经济上等同于同时持有 A 和 C 的 Yes。Polymarket 的 neg-risk 机制允许直接完成这种转换。
在 J.D. Vance 的分组市场中，他把 Vance No 份额通过 neg risk 转成其他结果的 Yes 份额，同时保留单独的 Vance Yes 仓位。这意味着账户显示的分组盈亏“实际上是错的”，尽管底层仓位都是真实存在的。
足球类比说明了其中的逻辑：90 分钟内要么 A 队赢、要么 B 队赢、要么打平。因为“这 3 个结果中必然有 1 个发生”，只要某一结果的 No 价格与所有替代结果 Yes 价格之和之间出现价差，机器人就会进行套利。
2. 地缘政治优势来自信息背后的激励机制
在从 OpenSea 转向 meme 币、再转向预测市场约 2 年后，BrokieTrades 表示自己基本交易过 Polymarket 的所有类别。但自 2 月 28 日以来，地缘政治占据主导，因为他认为自己在这一领域拥有异常的信息优势。
他的 Ali Khamenei 交易起始于约 50¢，当时美国刚开始对伊朗采取军事行动。许多交易员相信伊朗官方媒体，而以色列媒体称 Khamenei 已死亡，并描述这是一次定点打击；BrokieTrades 因为相信后者而买入 Yes。
主持人质疑信息源的可靠性，指出 Channel 12 曾多次错误报道事态进展，并推动市场双向波动。BrokieTrades 承认，确认信息归因“极其困难”，因此转而强调激励机制，以及一些小型大学或非营利机构的信息来源；当 Mojtaba Khamenei 的价格在 5–15¢附近时，这些来源让他获得了相关线索。伊朗 clerics 随后投票支持 Mojtaba，后者最终成为领导人。
关于 Mojtaba 的状态，他明确表示：“我认为他已经死了。”关键不在于这项判断本身，而在于背后的机制：一个已经死亡的领导人可以让 IRGC 官员获得更大的个人权力，并减少内部冲突；而关于 Mojtaba 离开主建筑、进入建筑另一部分，并在空袭中仅仅受伤或损失一条手臂后幸存的说法，在他看来“太过牵强”。
3. 当时间与结果错位时，判断正确仍然不够
BrokieTrades 持有 Mojtaba 年底前出局的 Yes 仓位，但看到了合约层面的风险：IRGC 可以继续声称他还活着。他同意主持人的框架：IRGC 没有动力公开 Mojtaba 已死，尤其因为那也会暴露此前的谎言。
这种区别决定了他的工具选择。Polymarket 合约会在固定日期到期，并根据市场规则结算为 0、1，有时也可能是 50%；永续合约则允许他表达方向，而不必准确预测催化剂何时到来。
他最典型的警示案例，是一笔押注美国对委内瑞拉采取行动、到期时间设在 2025 年末的交易；按他的说法，事件最终发生在 2026 年 1 月 3 日。“时间范围比事件本身更难预测”，因此短期高确信度判断可能更适合 Polymarket，而期限更宽松的方向性判断可能更适合永续合约。
4. 石油仓位刻意持有相反期限
未来 3 天，BrokieTrades “非常看多石油”，因为他认为局势升级的概率约为 30%。当主持人追问这个精确数字的依据时，他坦率承认自己无法给出具体解释，只是“确实不知道”——考虑到他一贯强调必须寻找明显错误定价，这是一项有价值的自我承认。
未来 6 个月，他在 Hyperliquid 上做空石油，尤其是 Brent，因为他认为战争在 6 个月内结束的概率超过 80%。他的逻辑是，资金费率机制对空头等待的收费不足，因此永续合约是表达石油价格最终下行的更好工具之一。
他设想的升级路径是：美国发动一次非常短暂的打击，摧毁大量 IRGC 领导层，并破坏石油、能源和电力基础设施，迫使伊朗就高浓缩铀问题进行谈判。他把这描述为预测，而非确定性判断。
主持人的反驳具有实质性：即便和平消息令石油暴跌，霍尔木兹海峡关闭 3 个月——该海峡涉及超过 20%的供应——再加上俄罗斯油田和炼厂遭到袭击，也可能造成无法估量的供应链损失。正因如此，主持人更愿意做多 Bitcoin，而不是在第一根杠杆红 K 线之后继续持有石油空仓。
5. 持续盈利需要一个可解释的交易对手错误
BrokieTrades 最近最大的错误，是在意外停火发生时仍然持有石油多头。他把 Axios 解读为基本代表 Trump 的口径：伊朗据称在阻止协议达成，而 Trump 是寻求和平的一方，责任在伊朗。这一判断似乎支持进一步采取行动，因此他至今仍困惑于停火为何发生，只是猜测可能与美国民众压力或油价有关，并未声称自己已经找到答案。
他指出，海峡仍然关闭，如果最终无法达成协议且海峡不重新开放，石油仍可能继续上涨。因此，多项相互竞争的因素仍未解决。
他对散户优势的定义是刻意不对称的：能源对冲基金更懂供给、需求及相关影响，而聚焦地缘政治的个人可能更懂冲突本身。机会在于“对冲基金理解的东西的反面”，而不是在机构最擅长的领域击败它们。
他约一半的 Polymarket 流程涉及与其他交易员交流。直接和对手方交谈，可以同时看清市场隐含的论点，以及交易对手是否“完全是白痴”；石油交易则基本靠他自己，因为他认识的预测市场交易员中，很少有人使用期货。
他一开始说，想超越买入 S&P 需要大概 130 的 IQ，后来又把说法修正为“可能 120 以上”。更站得住脚的规则出现在之后：必须要求一个足够大的优势——按他的说法，超过 20–30%——知道共识为什么错，并记住“基本上，不交易本身也是一种交易”。
核验说明
关于 2028 年大选的问题，逐字稿回答中出现了“2020 年大选已经被做局”；该年份在上下文中存在歧义，因此保留原说法，未作标准化处理。
完整逐字稿
Yo, yo, yo. Hello, hello. How are you? I’m good, Mr. Brokie. This PFP might get me banned on Twitch. I hope not.
Oh, well, it’s just a joke. I’m not the real Andrew Tate. There we go.
Nor do I endorse him. Well, I mean, I endorse some things. You know.
I won’t hold you to that in either direction. No, I agree with him on some things and disagree on others. I don’t know. We can skip the Tate topic.
It’s an absolute pleasure to have you here.
Sick P&L, man. Thank you. Thank you.
So, I just want to clarify a few things. There’s this concept on Polymarket called neg risk. Basically, you can have outcome A, outcome B, outcome C—you know, if you buy no shares of outcome A, you can convert those no shares of outcome A into yes shares of outcomes B and C, assuming that it’s guaranteed that A, B, or C will occur.
Because of this, I essentially neg-risked the no shares of J.D. Vance into all of the other brackets. I also have yes shares on J.D. Vance, so it’s a little bit confusing, and this is sort of a Polymarket bug. Regardless, most of the P&Ls on those brackets are actually incorrect.
Wait. Can you back up and explain Polymarket neg risk? I’ve never heard that explained before.
Okay. Essentially, let’s say there’s a sports event, and it’s soccer, where you can tie in the first 90 minutes. One of those 3 outcomes will occur.
If you have no shares on Team B winning, it’s the same as having the same amount of yes shares on Team A winning or the match tying, because mathematically there are only 3 options. The prices will be the same.
You can go on any Polymarket market, and if you add up all the odds of yes on all the other brackets, they will add up to the price of no on one of the other brackets. It’s a fun thing, and bots actually arbitrage using this.
Whoa. I’ve never thought about that. How often are you thinking about this and using it?
I think it’s very strategic because sometimes you can get shares for cheaper, and obviously you can use these market mechanics to make more money.
Whoa. Thank you for the explanation. Let me back up and give me an introduction. Who are you, for as much as you want to share, and what is your trading experience and lore?
I guess my first experience in crypto was not on prediction markets. It was actually OpenSea. I know you were just looking at that. I bought into some of those at the higher prices.
From there, I went into meme coins, and now, recently—I went into prediction markets about 2 years ago. I’m primarily trading prediction markets. I think I’ve traded literally every category of market on Polymarket.
I think I’ve made money on all of them, and I always look for an edge. I use a lot of rational common sense, although that’s a little bit rude to people who are my counterparties.
[laughter]
I do a lot of stats, but more recently, since February 28, I’m primarily trading geopolitics because I have a lot of insights there.
On February 28, obviously, we know the United States commenced the military operation against Iran. In those markets, Khamenei ultimately met his demise, but in the meantime, many people had not priced this in.
The odds of Ali Khamenei being out—the father, with the son obviously being Mojtaba—people hadn’t priced this in. The market was roughly at 50¢ by the time I had woken up, and I bought a lot of yes shares. He turned out to die.
I think people were trusting Iranian state media a lot in that scenario. I’m just giving an example of a trade and how I use this edge. People trusted Iranian state media a lot rather than looking at Israeli media. Israeli media was saying that this was a targeted strike and that he was definitely dead.
I think this was my edge. People in the West don’t really understand that. People don’t know which media sources to trust. I would also say that people in the West don’t understand Islam, and as a result, some of these terrorist organizations don’t make the right trades because of that.
Tell me what media outlets you should trust. How do you know who to trust and who not to trust?
Since February 28, all we’ve covered is geopolitics as well, and the infamous Israeli news network Channel 12 has falsely reported about 10 different things. Markets have ripped in both directions, and that’s why I don’t like trading them.
It’s extremely hard, as you said. I think you also have to think a lot about incentives when you’re going through these problems.
There are some niche news networks that probably have very few readers, viewers, or listeners, but they have extremely good insights. Traditionally, these are either universities or nonprofits. I don’t really want to say the names because it’s a big edge.
There are sources like this. They gave insights, for instance, into Mojtaba Khamenei becoming the leader, despite him being priced at only 5¢ to 15¢ on Polymarket, when the Iranian clerics, who are religious leaders, actually voted for him. Mojtaba ultimately became the leader.
By the way, I want to make it clear that there’s a controversy over whether Mojtaba is truly alive. I don’t know if you’ve gone over this.
Give me the breakdown and what you think.
I think he’s dead. The IRGC is incentivized to pick a dead leader. Mojtaba was already next in line, but when he died, the leaders of the IRGC would have significantly more power if they picked someone who was already dead, because there wouldn’t be as much internal conflict.
To answer the question of why they would pick someone dead, it’s because they would get much more power on an individual level.
Secondly, I think the whole story of Mojtaba’s so-called survival from the compound is far-fetched. The story is that he walked outside of the main compound, went into another part of the compound, and then walked down the stairs back to the compound. Israel’s bombs hit his father’s compound, killing his father and Mojtaba Khamenei. Thanks to Allah, only his arm was destroyed or hurt or something.
That story just seems so far-fetched. I think they have to use this religious figure to justify it. I think it’s extremely likely that Mojtaba is dead.
Is there an active market that you’re positioned in either direction on that?
I have some yes shares that he’ll be out by the end of the year.
But you’re worried that even though you know he’s dead, they could hide it because the IRGC doesn’t want to make it public. They want the power, right? Why are they going to say Mojtaba is alive if they can keep this power and maintain this sort of deception?
Exactly. The IRGC has no incentive to say Mojtaba is dead, and they will also have lied.
What do you do all day? Give me your daily routine. What are you doing all day? Are you—
Yeah, I’m a student.
You’re a student? Is this a part-time thing for you?
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
You’re at university?
I mean, no comment. Sorry. Sorry. Sorry. Sorry. You’re—
That is insane, though. You’re a student, and you’re trading prediction markets. Are you trading other markets, or are you mostly trading prediction markets?
Yeah, I’ve also been trading the oil markets on Hyperliquid, which has a very interesting mechanic because they’re tied to an oracle price.
I’m sure everyone on the stream is familiar with Hyperliquid and how you have the funding rate. This essentially pegs you to the oracle price. If people believe the oracle price is going to go down, for instance, we can all agree that the war has above an 80% chance of resolving in the next 6 months, right?
Because of that, the funding rates should, in theory, price down the market. The funding rates should make it such that shorts pay longs in the long run, because the markets will end up there eventually.
I actually think Hyperliquid’s funding rate is mispriced, such that if you open a short position for the next 6 months, you’ll make money. I think this is one of the best instruments to short oil because of this mechanic.
You are heavily priced against the war being over and that destroying oil. I don’t think the market—I think the funding rate on Hyperliquid—bounces a lot, specifically on Brent oil, which is the one I’ve been trading.
Okay. I think that you will not pay that much money to short. You will not lose that much money on funding rates. I know you mentioned trying to short or long Bitcoin. I think the Hyperliquid way is better, but I would also like to clarify something: I saw someone on your stream earlier say that they’re short oil.
I’m short oil in the long run, but I’m very long oil in the short run, over the next 3 days. I think I’m going—
Okay, what happens over the next 3 days? Escalation this weekend?
Yes, I believe so.
What are you betting on?
Let’s put it this way: I think it’s around a 30% chance. So, let’s not—
How do you arrive at that 30% chance? What are you calculating when you come to that number? It’s a specific number.
I can’t put a specific justification behind it. I just don’t know. In the past, there’s not really anything I can point to or justify.
Interesting. How are you positioned for it in the oil market? How are you positioned in prediction markets? And what’s your general read on where this is going?
I think this is one of my issues with prediction markets: I don’t necessarily always price in the news correctly, which is why I always look for a substantial edge—more than 20% to 30%. For that reason, I usually make money on most of my trades.
To answer your question, I think what Trump will do is launch a very short strike. I think it will decapitate a lot of the IRGC, and I think he will destroy a lot of the oil infrastructure and energy and power infrastructure.
I think Trump believes that doing this will bring Iran to the negotiating table in a place where it’s more willing to give up its highly enriched uranium. I would say that’s by far the biggest factor in why Trump hasn’t met or agreed to the Iranian demands.
Interesting. What do you think about trading oil on Hyperliquid versus trading some of the oil markets on Polymarket?
I think all the oil markets on Polymarket are time-constrained. They all have a resolution date, and they’ll resolve to 0%, 1%, or 50%, depending on the market rules, by whatever resolution date is specified.
Because of this, the time frames are harder to predict than what will actually happen. I saw this in my own accounts: I bet a lot on a U.S.–Venezuela operation, but I bet on late 2025, and it happened on January 3, 2026.
I think time frames are harder to predict, and for that reason, sometimes it’s better to use perpetuals. Sometimes I do have shorter-term conviction, and in that case I would use Polymarket. It really depends on the opportunity.
Interesting. Where have you been the most wrong since February 28? What markets have you gotten wrong that caused the biggest losses?
I was very long oil right when the last ceasefire occurred. I was also very long oil at the beginning of the war, and I made a lot of money.
Most recently, where I lost money since February 28 was in these oil markets and related Polymarket markets. I didn’t think a ceasefire would occur. I think the ceasefire has been rather stupid, to be frank with you.
I had listened to some analysis that said Axios, the news agency, is essentially Trump’s messaging. The messaging from Axios at the time was that Iran wasn’t agreeing to a deal, Trump was the peace guy, and it was all Iran’s fault.
That would be clear messaging for an operation. It justifies saying that Iran is trying to build a nuclear weapon, that they’re not agreeing to this peace deal, and that they’re not giving us the highly enriched uranium back. I had a lot of conviction that this would be the messaging.
I honestly don’t know why they did the ceasefire, and I’m still confused about it to this day. I think it was probably pressure from the American people, and maybe oil prices were too high for Trump.
Looking back today, the Strait is still closed. Some people speculate that maybe we end up with no deal, no nuclear deal, and no reopening of the Strait, which would also push oil higher. There are a lot of factors.
Dude, I’ve been trading oil nonstop too, and I’m kind of hooked on it. The reason I said long Bitcoin instead of short oil is that if Trump comes out and we have an actual ceasefire—or the war is over, or peace is achieved—oil is going to crater.
But there are also 3 months of closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for more than 20% of supply. I don’t know how to account for the long-term impacts on oil supply chains. There’s also everything happening in Russia: oil fields and refineries are getting blown up.
I have no concept of how to account for the long-term effects of that. So, after oil shorts beyond that first red leveraged candle, I don’t know what to do with it.
Do you want to hear something interesting?
Yes, please.
I’m just thinking I should say this. I know that hedge funds are the opposite of you. They don’t know how to trade this conflict. They don’t know what’s going on.
But what do these hedge funds that trade energy understand? They understand supply and demand, obviously. They understand all of these other effects, and I think that’s what they’re good at.
What they’re not good at—and where we can get an edge as retail, or I don’t know if I’m retail, I don’t know what I am, but whatever I’m classified as—is geopolitics.
I think that’s the inverse of what the hedge funds understand, which is quite fascinating and is where we gain an edge.
Did you watch the whole stream today?
I watched some of it.
Where does retail edge exist in 2026?
If you’re really, really smart, you can find it everywhere. If you’re average IQ, just buy the S&P.
What level of intelligence do you need to extend beyond buying the S&P?
Maybe 130 IQ or higher.
What does that mean? How smart is that?
I don’t know. I’ve never taken an IQ test. I think I’m around 145, maybe. I don’t know.
What percentile is 145?
Let’s see. I don’t know, maybe the 95th percentile of the population.
That’s the top 1% to 3% of the general population—1 in 700 people. There are probably 250 people watching the stream, so by default, over the next 3 days, you would be the smartest person in the stream, just based on pure math. I think that’s correct.
You’re cutting out. Can you hear me, or is it just me?
It’s you. It’s you. It’s you. Don’t worry. Don’t worry. Check, check, check, check, check. Tell him to leave and come back. Hold on. I can’t find the chat with him.
You can all hear me, right? Leave and come back. It’s you, not me. This guy’s kind of sick. What should I ask him? What do you want me to ask him?
What IQ do you think I have? Be honest. Get my IQ. I’ll take an IQ test on stream. I swear I’ll do it. Can we do a short one? How long can an IQ test be?
My Wi-Fi cut out.
Okay, you’re back. You’re back. Sorry. Sorry. Dude, that’s 1 in 700.
What?
Yeah, that’s high. Did you make that up, or did you take a test?
No, I took some tests.
So you think that if you’re under 115 IQ, you shouldn’t trade or think about buying anything? Give me that take.
All I know is that I didn’t know it was that high, to be honest.
Give me the full take. Give me a number.
Are you just making your IQ up? It’s not true.
No, I took the test.
I can screenshot you the results. Whatever. Maybe it’s 120-plus.
I also think there are people with lower IQs who are very successful in life and in these sorts of industries.
Why are you laughing at me?
It’s just good. Keep going.
The chat is geeking out over the IQ take. They like the IQ take.
Yeah, good.
I think a lot of people don’t understand that you actually need to have an edge, and you need to justify why something isn’t priced in. If you can’t justify why something isn’t priced in, then you should not make the trade.
I think that’s a good take. When—or how—did you realize you could make money on Polymarket for the first time? When did you realize you had an edge?
It was probably in the Middle East, or through copying other people’s trades.
Copying other people’s trades? What’s your strategy for copy trading people?
I wouldn’t say copy trading.
I think it’s actually the opposite of copy trading. I think one way to get—
No. Well, so, okay. So one way to get some more edge on Polymarket is to speak to your counterparty, to speak with the other side. If there’s a market, sometimes it’s hard to know why it’s priced this way. By talking with people on the other side, you can find out why they’re betting on that side and determine if they’re complete idiots.
Okay, so how often are you trading solo in a silo versus talking to other traders? How much of your trading is independent versus crowdsourced?
I’d say it’s 50/50. On oil, it’s only me because obviously there’s no data. There’s nobody else I know who’s trading oil futures.
Interesting. On Hyperliquid, how many Polymarket traders who are good in prediction markets are making money in other vehicles, like Hyperliquid, crypto markets, whatever?
I know you had Mav [?] on your stream a few months or weeks ago.
Yeah.
I know she bought oil futures. Maybe it was using TradFi. I’d say the percentage is maybe 5% to 10%.
Interesting. What do you think is going to happen with 2028? We talked about it very briefly at the beginning. Rubio, Vance on the other side as well.
Rubio’s not going to run. Rubio enjoys his job as Secretary of State, and he’s not going to want to go on the campaign trail. He probably will lose, by the way. He would rather retain his Secretary of State’s job, and because of this, I just don’t think he’s going to run. He won’t want to go on the campaign trail.
I think the fair value for JD is likely. Dude, I feel like they’re sabotaging Vance. JD Vance is the most anti–Middle East war person in the Trump administration, and when the war starts, he says nothing the entire time.
They are, yeah.
The first time they let JD Vance speak, they throw him to Pakistan to do negotiations. That was nuts. I can tell you why.
Okay, go.
They’re saving Marco, who is, in my opinion, a remarkable candidate for 2032.
2032? Are we going to make it that long? I mean, that’s the assumption, I suppose.
Why would they save him for 2032? Do you think the 2028 election—
Because the 2020 election is cooked, yes.
You think it’s cooked regardless?
Yes, yes. And so what, Gavin Newsom? AOC, I guess.
Are you betting on it in that direction?
I haven’t bet on candidates. I’ve bet on the party winner, and I’ve bet on JD Vance over Marco by selling my yes shares. But I do think AOC is much less likely than Gavin Newsom. Those are the top two.
I know. I’m just reading what chat’s saying.
Yeah, fair.
I mean, AOC’s tough, right? But I guess we’ll see. I don’t have much of a take on 2028 at all outside of the Republican side. We’ll see. We’ll see.
I think if AOC wins and gets nominated, or if it’s very clear she’s going to win, Marco is much more likely to run because she’s such a weak candidate and she’s way too extreme. Marco’s pretty centrist, or right of center, I guess.
Someone said, “Apply to Jane Street.” Yeah, I got an interview. Anyways.
If AOC runs, I think Marco is much more likely to run because she’s such a weak candidate and she’s way too extreme. Marco’s pretty centrist, or right of center, I guess.
How do you trade around Trump announcements and speeches?
I think you need to be very careful because Trump says a different thing every day. I recently charted Trump’s statements, graphing how likely he is to make a deal versus how likely he is to escalate, and it literally spiked up and down every single day.
You have to be very careful about what he says. He says a different thing every day, especially with the Iran war. That’s a big risk if you’re fully going into one statement after he says it. The markets have begun to understand this a little bit more, but they still fluctuate with these varying statements.
Obviously, when he says, “We’ve just secured a two-week ceasefire through our mediators in Pakistan,” that’s a very clear signal. Beyond that, a lot of what he says varies day to day.
What’s been your biggest win? Or maybe not just pure P&L, but the trade that you’re most proud of?
I think I’m very proud of the commodity trade. That was pretty good. I’m fairly proud that I’ve traded so many really small markets.
Yeah, yeah, that’s what I was saying. My trades are actually pretty small. At least they were until recently, when I kind of sized up. I have so many just—
A few-thousand-dollar wins.
Yeah, yeah. But, you know, that just makes money.
Dude, I’ve enjoyed talking to you. Give me the advice you give people who are trying to figure out how to make money, or where to make money, on Polymarket. How do you make money on Polymarket if you’re a profitable crypto trader or trader elsewhere?
Make sure you have your edge. Make sure you can justify where the market’s mispriced. Make sure you understand why people are betting in the other direction. Make sure you have all the information, and don’t be afraid not to take a trade, because not taking a trade is basically a trade.
Who do you think we should get on? Who are your favorite Polymarket traders?
Favorite Polymarket traders? I think I’d get my friend Remember [?] on Polygon. He’s pretty smart. He’s a sharp guy. He’s made maybe $1 million in the last few years since he started, about a year and a half ago. I think he’s a great guy to talk to. Obviously, you already spoke with Matt, who’s great as well.
What do you think is the upper bound of how much you could make on Poly? You specifically.
Upper bound for me, with my strategy? I think a few million a year, which is why I’m excited for there to be much more liquidity. Obviously, Polymarket announced perpetuals. I think I would ultimately need to expand my strategy to other markets beyond geopolitics, and I would need to be much more frequent and much more online. I’d also need more bots.
I appreciate you coming on. This is sick. It’s like a different side. Is there anything you want to promote or sign off with?
I don’t have anything to promote. Just check out my Twitter page. BrokeyTrades.
Dude, the PFP is killing me, by the way. At the beginning, it was hard to focus. I apologize.
It’s a joke.
Thanks for coming on stream, Brokie. It was a pleasure, man. It was great to meet you. Maybe we’ll do it again at $1 million in P&L.
Yes. Thank you, brother. Much love, dude. Peace. Bye.
The guy’s nuts, man. I like that. Those are the types of people I like to talk to. He’s up—damn, he’s up $500,000. Impressive. He makes a couple million a year, too. Impressive.
Shout out to Broke Kid Trades. I followed him. I think he’s a good follow. I just followed him, too. I hadn’t followed him before. Some of these follow-my-guy guys are hilarious. They’re really funny. Shout out to Broke Kid.