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Invest Like the Best · · 55 分钟

Barry Diller 如何打造娱乐帝国

Patrick O'ShaughnessyBarry Diller

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TL;DR
  • Diller——互联网时代的机会主义者,完成约150笔交易并从QVC/HSN拆分出11家上市公司——将他在1990年代形成的筛选标准应用于AI:收入优先于流量。 他对如今似乎“最受追捧”的方向非常警惕,即“在没有已知收入、或没有已知大笔收入的领域投入巨额资金……数千亿美元的投资——告诉我,这到底要如何获得回报”。他承认其中一部分会成功,“但对此我会持怀疑态度”。
  • 他对冲AI的方式,是持有无法被去中介化的资产。 IAC买下MGM 24%的股份,因为“你给我任何一个AI方程式,我都会告诉你:与此无关”——11处拉斯维加斯物业、490家餐厅、125个演出场馆,“没有任何技术能插进它与人之间”。主持人提到预测市场(Polymarket,很可能还有Kalshi)1000万美元的估值,问这是否构成威胁?“不。不。不。”——博彩是重要收入来源,“但不是最重要的部分”。
  • 出版业与Google的清算已经到来。 “他们说,事情一开始进展缓慢,然后会突然加速。现在正在加速。”任何靠搜索流量生存的出版商都“将接近灭绝”。他给Dotdash Meredith的处方是反转商业模式——Travel + Leisure本该创造White Lotus,Food & Wine本该做出Casamigos——因为“媒体本身变成了营销”。
  • “好莱坞无关紧要。” Diller随即补充:“不,我的意思是,它不是。”流媒体把受众与收入脱钩:只要Prime订阅增长,Amazon“根本不在乎是1个人还是90亿人看到它”;而制作内容如今只是大型企业内部“第68或第78个部门”。光环已经扩散到其他领域,可能是Instagram,而霸权已转移到大型科技公司。
  • 面对真正的新事物,研究“只会误导你……它永远不会告诉你为什么它会成功或为什么应该成功”。 因此,他通过对抗犬儒主义、刻意保持天真来保护直觉。他的组织引擎,是让一屋子“聪明、敏捷的人”彼此碰撞,把他们推到“耐力极限之外”,只招聘罗伯特·伍德拉夫所谓的“不满者”。
  • Murdoch是“我所认识的最大风险承担者”。 他在94岁时依然享受其中;Diller将他与另一种“硬派”风险承担者区分开来——后者会勇敢地吸收一切风险,再阴沉地扛过去。英国卫星业务债务、以及为TV Guide支付的30亿美元(后来“相对一文不值”)之后,约50家银行拒绝续签Murdoch的整套贷款,他几乎让公司停摆。直到约1年后的再融资,Home Alone带来的现金——还不是The Simpsons——“让公司没有停摆”;整个过程中,Murdoch“从不抱怨……承担全部责任”。
  • 这一切背后的个人脊梁,是他约8岁时在夏令营被遗弃后,决意成为“自己的救世主”、不依赖任何人。 对性取向的恐惧“抹去了其他所有恐惧”,并在冲突中变成“一种秘密武器”;而“你要么是独立的,要么不是”的二元判断,迫使他离开Fox、转向QVC——所有人都认为这是疯了。
摘要 · 为研究而整理的核心内容

1. 不依赖任何人——塑造这台机器的童年

  • 那个决定性场景发生在夏令营:7岁、8岁或9岁的他想家,请母亲来接自己;母亲答应了,却始终没有出现。几个小时守在树桩旁,最终变成“那个苦涩、悲伤又甜蜜的时刻:我意识到不能依赖母亲,也就是说,除了自己,我谁也不能依赖”——“那是一个真正让我醒悟、成为自己的救世主的时刻”。
  • 控制欲源自唯一无法控制的事情:“我正在显现、却令人困惑的性取向”。因此,“人生中其他所有我能控制的事情,我都想尽力去控制”。当被问及几十年的成功是否让这种冲动减弱时,他回答:“和过去一样——我觉得甚至更严重。”
  • 恐惧也成了武器。23岁在ABC时,他对很可能是Charlie Bluhdorn的人说:“我不会买这些电影。一部部都是烂片。”这位“易燃”的工业家刚刚说服ABC董事长买下Paramount的老片库。Diller解释说,对性取向的恐惧“某种程度上抹去了其他所有恐惧……它成了一种秘密武器。其他人都吓坏了”。

2. 只要不满者:直觉、冲突与深水区

  • 面对新想法,研究“只会误导你”,因为它报告的只是过去。“它能做的只有告诉你为什么事情不会成功。它永远不会告诉你为什么会成功,或者为什么应该成功。”他的纪律是:“对抗犬儒主义……对抗自以为成熟老练……坚持某种形式的天真,哪怕这种天真是你自己创造出来的。”
  • 他的组织流程是制造创造性冲突:让聪明、敏捷、观点鲜明的人“彼此碰撞”,把他们留在房间里,直到超过忍耐极限——“当他们说‘求你了,我能回家吗’,而你不让他们回家,有趣的事情就会在那之后发生”。所谓“锋芒”,是指像砂纸一样的粗粝感,“它会制造火花”。
  • Coca-Cola的Robert Woodruff提供了招聘信条:“只要不满者”。Diller自己的解释是:如果没有那个失调的童年,“我可能最后会成为一名鞋店店员”。
  • 至于如何培养出Eisner这样的管理者,他说:“不是我培养他们。”他会把缺乏经验的人直接扔进深水区——“给他们超出资历所能胜任的责任,因为在那座熔炉里,你才能看出谁会游泳”。Eisner的大脑“肥沃得不可思议,产出东西的速度比嘴巴说出来还快”。

3. 深挖到底,并准备好砸掉交易

  • 他无法在一知半解的状态下工作:“我必须把一切拆解到最基础的DNA……在弄清楚一笔复杂交易之前,我得先回到最基本的东西。”一次证明发生在房地产交易上:多年里,他一直点头听一位业务经理推介房地产项目,还自嘲“我完全就是个笨蛋”;后来他逼对方从最基础的地方讲起,听到一半便说“这太蠢了,我不干了”,随后解雇了他。
  • Lou Wasserman给他的谈判课,发生在一笔60多部电影的收购中:Diller对删掉其中一个单元说了句“不”。Wasserman告诉他:“如果我说不,你最好准备好砸掉这笔交易,否则你永远得不到你想要的东西。”先划清底线,再证明自己永远不会越线。
  • John Malone至今仍是他频繁交谈的人,依然是“房间里最聪明的人”——既有工程师的思维框架,又“绝对全面地理解每一种技术可能性”,还能横向、纵向地融会贯通,“你面对的是一位大师级工匠”。
  • 主持人提到Bill Gates与Ticketmaster的斗争,认为它和今天的AI版权战争有相似之处:“他年轻、刻薄,而且不知疲倦。”Diller罕见地修正了自己关于人不会改变的判断:“Gates成长了很多……有了同理心……他曾经刻薄而执着。但他已经不是那样了。”

4. “所有人都以为会失败”——成功背后的模式

  • 25岁时做Movie of the Week,他提出了一个所有人都预计会失败的原创概念——“正因为所有人都觉得它会失败,所以我必须亲自做”。首夜收视率是“34点多,所以我把它叫作35”——1亿美国家庭中,有3500万户观看同一档节目。产量从第1年的25部增至40部,第3年达到75部,形成一张“所有人都认为在物流上不可能实现”的播出表。
  • The Simpsons走的是同一条路:“所有人都觉得它很蠢”——距离The Flintstones已经过去20年或30年,怎么还做动画片?第一次放映时,他和Jim Brooks故意大笑,为房间定下基调;12名Fox高管则像“一块块结实的石头”,一动不动:“你当然不能把它播出去。”正式播出第1小时便大获成功,“可能是有史以来最赚钱的单一娱乐产品”。
  • 那种文化引力已经消散。Roots连续播出11晚,覆盖全国45%–50%的人口,“在文化环境中持续了几个月”。如今即便做出好作品,“今天出现,今天就结束,下一小时就消失”。

5. Murdoch:差点让公司停摆的快乐赌徒

  • 第四家电视网在不到1小时内获批:Diller提出方案,说电视台要花“11.5亿美元”,另加1.5亿–2亿美元,Rupert直接说:“做吧。还有什么比这更好?”Diller对Murdoch的定义是:即使到了94岁,他仍是“快乐的风险承担者”;与之相对的,是那种“硬派”风险承担者——会勇敢地吸收所有风险,再阴沉地一路扛过去。
  • 那次濒死源于过度杠杆:英国卫星广播业务的债务,加上30亿美元收购TV Guide——当时是“美国人的圣经”,几年后却“相对一文不值”。Murdoch需要约50家银行续签整套贷款;小银行们说“你赌性太重”,公司因此“摇摇欲坠了约1年”。是Home Alone带来的现金——还不是The Simpsons——“让公司没有停摆”,直到再融资完成。
  • Diller评价他:“他从不抱怨……不会责怪别人。承担全部责任……这是人格的伟大展示。”两人的差异在于,Diller热爱过程——“一组快乐的片场是无聊的片场”;而Die Hard首映周末,Rupert只想知道最终票房的推算值,“这样我就能拿那笔钱去别的地方投资”。
  • 对Diller来说,金钱从来不是动力:“从来没有。永远没有。绝对没有……它从来不是我的衡量标准。”他还观察到,那些在富裕家庭长大的人“似乎非常专注于财富,即使他们已经拥有财富”。

6. “要么我是,要么我不是”——QVC与机会主义者手册

  • 企业体制制造了一种幻觉:一个好员工“确实会产生一种错觉,觉得这东西是我的。它只是一种错觉”。当“我到底有能力独立,还是没有能力独立”这个二元判断扎根后,“我无法接受自己没有能力独立”,它“迫使我采取了一个我不想采取的行动”。他离开Fox时手里只有一张白纸;所有人都认为QVC是疯了。
  • 1992年的顿悟是:屏幕过去一直只是被动的叙事格式,而QVC“原始的互动屏幕”打破了这一点——“我不知道它会怎么做到,但这将改变一切”。那时距离互联网普及还有3年,这种对屏幕的熟悉让他在互联网到来时能够迅速行动。
  • 他的打法是一家“反企业集团”——完成约150笔交易,并拆分出11家上市公司;在那个时代不惜付出不经济成本追逐流量时,他反而挑剔地选择项目:“我们把收入看得和费用同等重要。”他也容忍愚蠢:“你得先愚蠢,才能变聪明”——愚蠢的想法旁边往往藏着“一点聪明的东西”,只要能把它提炼出来。
  • 最典型的复利样本是Match.com:一家“德州很小的公司”,却“孕育出了一切”——一系列个人交友品牌,最终还有Tinder;当初投进去的钱“只是几枚硬币”,后来却“绝对病毒式地冲上了天空”。

7. AI:他不愿押注的魔法,因此买下无法被去中介化的资产

  • 当时在Expedia董事会任职的Sam Altman很早就向他展示了ChatGPT:让它“用莎士比亚十四行诗写一段Barry Diller的传记”,iPhone在几毫秒内就给出了答案。“简直是魔法。”相比之下,QVC“不是魔法……它是务实的”,甚至可能是更大的顿悟。
  • 正是这种警惕,让他当年避开了追逐流量的互联网泡沫公司:“如今似乎最受追捧的方向……在没有已知收入、或没有已知大笔收入的领域投入巨额资金……告诉我,这到底要如何获得回报。当然,其中一部分会成功——但对此我会持怀疑态度。”
  • 因此,他持有MGM 24%的股份:“你无法把它去中介化。你给我任何一个AI方程式,我都会告诉你:与此无关。”11处拉斯维加斯物业、490家餐厅、125个场馆,从2.5万席到更小规模,“没有任何技术能插进它与人之间”。他称这是自己的Flintstones式操作,“回到黑暗时代”——而且是有意为之。主持人提到Polymarket以及(很可能还有)Kalshi的1000万美元估值,问这是否构成威胁;他回答:“不。不。不。”博彩“当然是重要的收入来源,但不是最重要的部分。人们就是想去那里”。
  • 作为资本配置者,他也在自我审计:“我觉得自己已经不再胜任……我们正在进入的世界,对我的好奇心容量来说太大了。”而AI最大的疑问是:我们的“整个世界是否会被大型科技公司的进一步进步吞没;如果是这样,最终我们反正都会是一场模拟。正如我的一位朋友所说,我们也许会有一个幸福结局”。

8. 好莱坞无关紧要——幸存者将反转商业模式

  • 商业模式的断裂在于:过去,观众的反应本身就是收入;现在,“商业模式是让你订阅Prime,而Prime的商业模式是让你在Amazon上购买商品……他们根本不在乎是1个人还是90亿人看到它”。Netflix是“这套模式的领导者”。“好莱坞无关紧要”——Diller随即补充:“不,我的意思是,它不是。”这句话让人们纷纷指责他。
  • 如今,内容制作只是“非常大型企业内部的第68或第78个部门……其中的乐趣已经消失”。光环也一样:“整个霸权已经转移到大型科技公司的世界”,今天它可能存在于Instagram。
  • 他刚与Travel + Leisure进行2小时交流后给出了Google判断:“如果你把全部生计流量都依赖于Google、依赖搜索,你将接近灭绝……他们说,事情一开始进展缓慢,然后会突然加速。现在正在加速。”即便是拥有100万份订阅、数字业务也强于竞争对手的杂志,也无法幸免。
  • 他的处方是反转业务:“你们是Travel + Leisure……为什么没有创造White Lotus?”“我们拥有Food & Wine……为什么没有做出Casamigos?”用这种方式思考,“你会找到数百件值得追逐的事情……如果其中一部分成功,你最终仍然能建立一家巨型公司。”Patrick总结道,Diller说“完全正确”:“所以,媒体本身变成了营销。”
Barry Diller

When I met Rupert, I had always wanted to start a fourth network because I thought the 3 networks were boring. He said, “Great.”

I said, “What do you mean, great?” He said, “Do it.” I said, “Well, we have to buy these stations. It costs $1.15 billion.” And he said, “Do it.” What could be better?

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

When I ask around about you, as I’ve done over the last couple of days, lots of mutual friends—the word that comes up in every single conversation is curiosity. Usually “insatiable curiosity” is the term people use.

I loved the part in your book about the time in the William Morris file room, reading everything you possibly could. Where did the spark come from? Is it just innate in you? Has it always been this way?

Barry Diller

Curiosity, I absolutely believe, is innate. I guess people could try to make me curious, but I don’t know how you’d go about that. I think you either have the biology or you don’t. So much, to me, is about biology and not necessarily willful direction, but the idea that you can pull it from someplace—I’ve always been innately curious, not voraciously or crazily, just generally.

Luckily, my curiosity is not, like, “I want to understand how unwinged butterflies metamorphosize.” My curiosity is in more general-interest areas, so they’ve somehow resonated in other parts of productive life.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

What did you discover in the file room that got you going?

Barry Diller

I had always been interested in the entertainment business. That’s why I went there, because I was 19 years old. No one was going to pay attention to me, so I thought, where can I go? Who would want me?

I don’t think anyone wanted me at that time, for sure. But I thought, what could I do? They had a mailroom concept, which brought in young, supposedly sparky people and trained them to be, quote, agents.

I had no interest in being an agent. I would never, ever have thought I was qualified to do that kind of thing, or really had any interest in it. But I was interested in the entertainment business. At the time, the William Morris Agency was 70 years old, and it was the leading agency. So it had the history of entertainment in its file room.

I got lucky enough to be able to wangle my way to basically read it from A to Zed. It wasn’t curiosity; I just read the entire place.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

What was it about entertainment that captivated you? It seems like that was the zeitgeist of its day.

Barry Diller

I grew up in a little town, Beverly Hills. Almost all of my friends’ parents were involved in entertainment in one form or the other. My parents were involved in construction, building, and finance—things like that—the other world from entertainment.

I was just always drawn to it. It always fascinated me. I was interested in the people; they led definitely interesting lives, to say the least. I was also interested in the mechanics of it. It’s like anything: You’re drawn to something. I was drawn to that.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

In the earliest days, when you knew you did not want to be an agent but rather create things, there was this confrontation in your book. I think you were 23 years old, with [likely Charles Bluhdorn]. Can you talk about that fight that you had?

Barry Diller

I leave William Morris and go to ABC, and I’m 23 years old. At ABC, there were only 3 networks, and they had 100% of the viewing. Each of these networks was very powerful, but ABC was kind of run like a candy store because it was the youngest of the 3 networks and hadn’t yet bureaucratized itself. If you wanted responsibility, it was there.

I was in the program department, and no one else was doing it, so my responsibility was to buy movies from the major studio producers of movies at the time to put on television. A big diet of television watching then was theatrical movies on television.

[likely Charlie Bluhdorn], this great industrialist of the ’60s and ’70s, had bought Paramount. In order to justify his purchase, he wanted to sell all their old turkey movies. He convinced the chairman of ABC, who couldn’t wait to get rid of the mad Austrian, [likely Charlie Bluhdorn], to buy all these movies.

1. Fearlessness

The chairman called me up to his office. I was the only one on the floor at the time, and he said, “Okay, you do this.” I told Mr. Bluhdorn, after he thought he’d clenched this deal to kind of save his purchase of Paramount Pictures, “I’m not buying any of these movies. They’re all turkeys, and I’m not doing it.”

He fumed. Out of that, we found a way for us to buy some of the movies and for him to create new movies and finance the new movies. So he got intrigued with me.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

In that episode, did you discover a fearlessness in yourself?

Barry Diller

I had this one big fear about sexuality that kind of obliterated all other fears. So I was not afraid—it turned out, which was a total discovery because I didn’t know it. Of course, I’d never been in such confrontations.

I had no fear of business situations. I had this big fear, and that made me take on—

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Weaponized.

Barry Diller

Everything else, absolutely. So it was a kind of secret weapon.

It wasn’t a thrill to go through, and I’m not so sure I would advise it, but it was fodder for me. When I came up against this very powerful—and some people are quietly, demonstratively powerful, not in-your-face powerful—he was powerful in all ways and combustible.

He had the biggest conglomerate of the time, again, in the late ’60s and ’70s. He was probably 40 or something—an old man to me. Anyway, I found that I could argue with him, and I wasn’t afraid of him. Everybody else was petrified.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

We’re going to talk about the decades more as we go along. But when I read your book, I was captivated and amazed by how clearly you described things in your early life that so impacted you.

The 2 that stood out to me were these. I went to camp and was horribly homesick when I went to camp as a kid. I can remember quaking at the thought of going. You tell this story about wanting your mom to pick you up and her not showing up.

And then everything with your brother. The way that you described these 2 events just blew my face off—that you were willing to be this honest in the book, but also in a way that so many people who have read the book, and I’ve talked to, got them talking about their shit when they were young.

Barry Diller

It’s really quite amazing to me. The reason I wrote the book is because I thought, this is a good story. I know story; I know narrative. I’ve been telling stories all my life.

So I thought, it’s a good story if I can tell it true. I thought, well, do I want to? And then I thought, well, if I’m going to do it, why would I not want to? I mean, that would be crazy. So that’s what I set out to do.

What’s really surprised me is how it seems to have emotionally resonated with so many people in ways I would have never expected.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Can you talk about what happened in that camping incident and with your brother, and the impact that those 2 things had on you?

Barry Diller

I was at this camp, and I was 7, 8, 9—somewhere in there. As you saw, I didn’t want to be there. The only person in my dysfunctional family that I thought I could have any dependence on was my mother, because I certainly couldn’t depend on my father. My brother was a sadistic monster.

I said, “Come and get me.” She said, “Okay, I will come and get you.” It is an indescribable scene of sitting in a kind of path near the entrance of the campground, near a tree stump, and waiting hours for my mother to come and rescue me.

The waiting became this bitter, sad, sweet moment of me saying, I cannot depend upon my mother, which meant I couldn’t depend upon anyone other than myself. It was a resolve that, from that moment on, I would force the world around me to know that I was dependent on no one.

At that age, it was kind of harsh, but it was a truly revelatory moment of being my own savior.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

How did the need for control evolve across the rest of your life?

Barry Diller

I think it’s because I’ve thought a lot about that. I’m really not that introspective, but in writing this book, I had to go through that and think a lot about it. I had no control over the biggest issue of my life, which was my emerging and confusing sexuality.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Yeah.

2. Seeing Chat GPT Early

Barry Diller

Of course, what I wanted to do was control it. I wanted to say no, turn it this way instead of that way. I wanted that. I wanted this. I wasn’t that obviously argumentative on the subject, but I think we all have stuff that we would like to control and find either our ability to control it or not.

Many things that come up, you can control them. So everything else in my life that I could control, I’d sure want to try.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

And has that gone down at all? I mean, you’ve been so successful.

Barry Diller

It’s the same as always.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Oh, I think it’s even worse, or more. How does that manifest today? I was reading about the original moment of insight around QVC and the 2-way interactivity, and now—you were with Sam around the time of ChatGPT—another moment—

Barry Diller

Very luckily, because Sam Altman was on the board of one of our companies, Expedia.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Right.

Barry Diller

So definitely earlier than most, he showed me the magic, which was, to me, magic.

He actually, I think, the first thing he did was say to ChatGPT, “Tell me the biography of Barry Diller in a Shakespearean sonnet.” And it did it. In a millisecond, out of the little iPhone came back—and I’m telling you, of course, again, I had little preparation for what he was doing, but it was freaking magic, and I was just stunned.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

How did the two compare? Did it feel like an order of magnitude even greater than the QVC moment?

Barry Diller

Well, the greatest epiphany—I mean, my own big epiphany—was when I went to QVC. I’d only known screens—movie screens, television screens—to be narrative formats, meaning that you were passive. They told you stories. That’s what screens did.

3. Creative Conflict

I went to QVC and saw these primitively interactive screens that you weren’t passive with. You said, “I like that product.” At the time, you punched phone codes and ordered it up, and televisions and computers tracked it. I thought, “Wow, screens can be used for something other than a passive experience—narrative.”

Now, this is in ’92, so it’s 3 years before the internet gets used by people. Of course, I didn’t see that, but what I saw was interactivity in screens, and I was dumbstruck by it—probably more so than by ChatGPT, because ChatGPT to me was magic. This was pragmatic. I thought, “I don’t know how, but this is going to change things.”

I was, again, just—so much of life is circumstance and serendipity, moment and whatever. By the time the internet came along 3 years later, I had some fluency about it, so I was able to make it productive.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

We’ll come back to the investing chapter of your career, but I want to flesh out some of these components of what I’ll call the Barry Diller model for approaching the world—not that it’s formulaic at all. Some concepts, like creative conflict, maybe starting with that and your love of creative conflict. Talk to me about what that means, how it manifests, and why it’s so valuable.

Barry Diller

I discovered fairly early that the best organizational process was to get smart, snappy people in a room who have opinions and get them clanging against each other with their opinions. Out of that conflict, people will say, “Well, I think this about that,” and somebody says, “No, I think that about that,” or, “You’re a dope about this,” or, “That’s an interesting insight,” or whatever.

The more that conflict forges hearing interesting things, if you’re a good listener—and I’m lucky, I can listen—you can pick out of that something that’s not hidden. It’s just a truth or something that you can roll with, something that makes sense to you. You can say, “Whoa, huh, that’s a good idea,” because I’m always searching for an idea, and the definition to me of an idea is: is it a good idea or a bad idea? That’s obviously editorializing by instinct.

I have always thought that the best arrangement for that is a group of people who are in conflict with each other, usually past their point of endurance. I found over time that when you push people somewhat past their endurance—when they say, “Oh, please, can I go home?” and you won’t let them go home—interesting things happen after that.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

The notion of spark and edge being things that you were searching for in the people who might be in that room really interested me. Spark, I think I understand. How would you think about edge? What was an edgy person?

Barry Diller

Edge is someone who is edgy. Someone who has some coarseness—and I don’t mean coarseness in the pejorative sense. I mean someone who is like sandpaper, that creates a spark.

Someone who’s got some—I wouldn’t call it original thought—but someone who’s willing to be on the edge of things rather than the common center of things.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

And is that related to this notion of discontented and willful that you’ve talked a lot about?

Barry Diller

Discontent is—I mean, Robert Woodruff was the chairman of the Coca-Cola Company in its great formative years. Once—I mean, it’s kind of obvious, but it wasn’t obvious to me when I heard it—he said, “Only give me the discontented. Those are the people I want in our organization.”

4. Instinct vs Data

It so resonated with me. Yes, of course, if you’re not discontented—and I think if I had grown up in a different environment, and I wasn’t in this dysfunctional environment that I was in with all these other issues, I’d probably end up a shoe clerk. That’s not a terrible thing, but it’s a little more interesting this way.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Is there a room of creative conflict that most stands out in your memory, where some idea came out of it?

Barry Diller

Oh, no. They’ve just been—it’s just my life.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

If you think about this notion of instinct and acting on instinct, not based on data or research or things like that, why has that proven so powerful to you rather than the alternative?

Barry Diller

If you say relative to data and research, it’s good, of course, when there’s a factual base. Research, of course, can give you the deepest and broadest factual base. But when you’re dealing with editorial matters or new ideas or things that aren’t yet there, there’s no research that can help or guide you. It can only mislead you, because it will essentially tell you what the past factual base has delivered to you, which has no relevance to a fresh idea.

All it can do is say, “Well, here’s why it won’t work,” based upon this, that, and the other thing. It ain’t never going to tell you why it will or should work, because it’s not knowable. It’s not researchable. It’s purely instinctive.

If that’s the realm in which you want to live the productive life, then you really have to try very hard to keep those instincts of yours as fresh and clean as you can. That means you have to fight cynicism. You have to fight being sophisticated. You have to hold on to a certain form—even if you make it up—of naïveté, because it’s only when you’re in that state that your instincts can be applied to determining what is interesting or not interesting.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

One of the things I loved hearing in the story was how, once you decided to do something, you would drill all the way down to the bedrock foundation and the essence of something, and then build back up from that understanding.

Barry Diller

But you know, the thing is—which still amazes me—is that it’s me. There are really people so much smarter than me who get stuff so much quicker. For me, I have to go all the way down. It’s not like I want to; I have to go all the way down, because until I can get to the first little building block, I don’t understand it.

There are some areas that, even if I try now—certain obvious areas that defy me—I just don’t have the capacity. But in the areas that I lived in, I had to break everything down to its base-block DNA, where I could have the basic understanding. Just tell me, yes, okay, 2 + 2 is 4. But I have to really, as dumb as that sounds, get down to those basics before I can figure out a very complex transaction.

If you give it to me midway or 2/3 of the way, with all the jargon people use to confuse people with everything, you never get to understand it. I can tell you, actually, one of my first revelations was this. This was when I was in my, I don’t know, probably late 20s, early 30s, and I had at the time a kind of business manager who took care of things outside my career life.

5. Entertainment Innovation

I had some capital, and he would be investing it in real estate transactions. He would come into my office every 4 or 6 months, whatever, and go through something. I was so bored with it because I didn’t understand what he was talking about. He would give me this thing about this deal, and I didn’t understand what he was really talking about; he was just using language I didn’t understand. I would basically say, “Yeah, yeah, yeah.”

A couple of years later, he was doing it to me, and I thought, “You know what? I’m really a total bimbo.” I said, “I want to understand this transaction. So let me now understand it.” I forced him to explain it from the very base of it. He got about halfway through it, and I said, “This is stupid, and I’m not doing it,” and I fired him.

It was my revelation—not that I didn’t already know it—that this is the only way I can function.

6. Movie of the Week Success

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

If you think back to the entertainment days at Paramount and Fox, what innovation—you were part of so many of them—stands out as the thing you’re most proud of, to the extent you are proud of something?

Barry Diller

I was very lucky. The first real responsibility that I had was to make these original movies every week called The Movie of the Week, which changed television at the time. I was 25. Everyone thought this project would fail, and it was my project—an original concept—and the risks were very high. Because everybody thought it would fail, I got to do it myself.

I built up the fluency to do it, and then we did it, and it succeeded gigantically.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Is there any better feeling than owning something end to end like that?

Barry Diller

It was just fantastic. It was fantastic because you can kind of—I can drill to the moment when I, at that time, well, you got ratings, which were the initial scorecard for whether you were succeeding or failing. At that time, they came overnight, at 7 in the morning, and I stayed up all night waiting for this rating.

When I heard it in my ear—and, by the way, it was so big that it was like, “Oh, my freaking God.”

We did it, and that was fantastic.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Do you remember how many people it was? Do you remember this stat?

7. Working with Murdoch

Barry Diller

Yes. Yeah, I do. It was a 34-something, so I call it a 35 rating. Now, this means that there were 100 million households, and this meant that 35 million households were watching this one little program.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Which does not happen today.

Barry Diller

No, no, no, no. See, it's not—I mean, yes, actually, you'll get—

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

I guess someone will watch a TikTok.

Barry Diller

A mega-event will do that, but that's incredibly rare.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

A movie every week seems logistically impossible.

Barry Diller

Everybody thought it was logistically impossible. We made 25 the first year, 40 or so the next year, and by the third year, we were making 75 of these a year.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

This is, like, impossible. Do you think people should do more of that—set impossible goals and then thrive in the constraint?

Barry Diller

Of course. Yes. I mean, I don't know. The world will only handle so many.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

I'd like to zoom to the Fox days.

Barry Diller

Oh, sure.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

What was it like working with Murdoch when he was facing hard challenges?

Barry Diller

Well, he always faced hard challenges because he threw everything onto the middle of the table in order to challenge those challenges. He did it in Australia, he did it in the UK, and then he did it in the US. He was the biggest risk-taker that I know or have known—a kind of hard-ass risk-taker who would courageously absorb whatever risk and grimly go through it.

Rupert was, and is still at 94, a joyous risk-taker. I was lucky enough—and again, all my life's serendipity and circumstance and moment—that when I met Rupert, it was when he bought an interest in the company that I had just become the CEO of, 20th Century Fox. I had always wanted to start a 4th network because I thought the 3 networks were boring, and I thought there ought to be an alternative to them.

I got the opportunity, and literally in about an hour—less, realistically—I told him the concept of doing this 4th network, and he said, “Great.”

I said, “What do you mean, great?”

He said, “Do it.”

I said, “Well, we have to buy these stations. It'll cost $1.15 billion, and then it'll cost, I don't know, $150 million, $200 million.”

“Do it.”

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

What could be better? There was a moment when The Simpsons and Home Alone together effectively saved his bacon.

Barry Diller

That's true.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

What happened then? What was going on? Why was there so much risk? Why did those things save his bacon?

Barry Diller

Well, what happened is, like a gambler—an industrial gambler, and someone who keeps trying to change things—Murdoch had overextended himself because he had taken on a huge amount of debt to start satellite broadcasting in the UK. He'd taken on debt to buy TV Guide, which at the time was like America's Bible and is now, of course, kind of irrelevant, and he paid $3 billion for it, which ended up some years later to be relatively worthless.

So he had overextended himself, and the banks didn't want to renew. It literally was the renewal of his entire loan package, and there were 50 banks, I think, that were involved all over the world. Some of them had very little exposure. The big banks with big exposure all said yes, but the smaller ones said no: “You're too much. You're too much of a gambler. It's too dodgy, and we're not going to renew.”

For about a year, it literally teetered on whether or not they'd renew these loans. Since there was no more credit, and because of the debt repayments and all, cash became extremely important—literally to keep my lights on.

Home Alone, which was this giant hit at the time, poured cash into the company. We were very cash-positive at Fox at that time. So it wasn't The Simpsons yet. The Simpsons later delivered huge returns, but it was the cash, basically, from Home Alone that kept the company from going dark before he could refinance his loan package, which took place about a year later.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

What was he like in that?

Barry Diller

I have so much admiration for Rupert. I have some issues that are not admirable about his conservatism, but during that period he never complained. He suffered enormously, but his character was that he would not show it, and he wouldn't complain, and he wouldn't blame others. He took full responsibility for it—no favors, no whatever. And that's a great demonstration of character.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

How much did you and he care about money as a motivator?

Barry Diller

For me, part of being in the movie business, part of the fun of being in the movie business, is that I love process. Another difference between us is that he doesn't like process. He basically has an idea, and he wants to get to the conclusion of the idea so he can move on to the next idea. I love process.

So you make a movie; it's not an easy thing to go through. Usually, when it's more difficult, the movies come out better. A happy set is a boring set. Anyway, when you made a movie in olden times, before streaming or whatever, you opened it on a Friday night, and by Saturday and Sunday—this is again before a lot of predictive stuff came along that could tell you what the end gross was going to be—you literally understood every theater in the US, and you got, one by one, the results from these theaters as to how it was doing on its first showing, its second showing, and third showing.

That process—you're either building yourself into a success, into a hit movie because people are going to see it, or not—is an iterative, process-y thing, and I love that. The rhythm of it was worth the candle of making the film.

I can't remember when, in the early days of Fox with Rupert, I think we were talking on a Sunday about some movie. It was Die Hard, and I'm getting these hourly figures, whatever, and I think Rupert asked, “How's it doing?”

I said, “It's doing really well.”

He said, “All right, well, so if it's doing this, how much will it make?”

I said, “What do you mean, how much will it make?”

He said, “Well, no, no, let's take the data of this and the data of that and multiply it by whatever. What will be the final amount that it'll make?”

It was like, “Fuck, I know. I don't want to know right now. I want to enjoy the process of learning about it as actual human people are coursing through and sitting in those seats.”

All he wanted to know was, “Give me the final amount so I can take that amount and do something else and invest it somewhere else.”

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

So did you ever care about money? Was it ever a motivator?

Barry Diller

Never. Ever. Ever. Now, I'm an odd character, obviously, because there are definitely some of us. Although, weirdly, people who have grown up with wealth seem to be very concentrated on wealth, and money means a lot to them, even if they've got it.

In my case, because it was never an issue to me, I never cared about it. I had no practical necessity. It was probably about other things, too. Since it never mattered to me, do I like it now? Yeah, sure. But I have no interest in it. I have no nominal interest in it because it's never been a marker for me.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

At the end of your executive run in entertainment, you're 50-ish or so in the early 1990s. There's this amazing line in the book that basically said you were thinking about wanting to own and control this thing, to be independent. There's a line: “Either I am or I'm not.” It's just incredibly simple. What was that leap like?

Barry Diller

I was very successful, had been very successful in multiple iterations of it, but I'd always worked for companies. I was a corporatist. I worked for the mother church, in a way. When you do that, if you're a good employee, you think it's yours. You do have an illusion that, oh, it's mine. It is an illusion. It is not clearly yours. And that illusion can be alive forever, and who cares? It's nice. There's nothing bad about it in any way.

For me, when I realized that it wasn't mine, but I acted like it was mine, I thought, “Am I capable of actually having something that really is mine, that is independent of the mother church of the corporation?”

Over a period of time, I didn't want to leave Fox. I was doing very well. I was very happy. I was challenged. I was still doing interesting stuff. But I thought, “I'm either capable of being independent or I'm not.” And I got this thing in my head of this binary: You either are or you're not.

8. Internet Opportunist Era

I couldn't turn away from it. I mean, as much as I tried—I don't know how much I really tried—but as much as ideas or convictions do dissipate, the “you are or you're not,” I could not accept that I wasn't. That was what it came to. I didn't want to go. But once I realized this binary, “you are or you're not,” it forced me into action I did not want to take.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

And then everyone hated QVC, right?

Barry Diller

Oh, yes. Well, then—but then, of course, I did leave, and I left by design with a blank piece of paper because I didn't want to repeat myself. Then I did go to QVC, which everyone thought I was insane.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

You described yourself as being an internet opportunist, not a visionary. You did something like 150 deals and investments coming out of QVC. I want to hear about how the hell you managed to do all those deals. But starting with QVC, what was so hard about it and the Home Shopping Network, which followed soon thereafter? What was it like getting the flywheel going?

Barry Diller

It wasn't hard, actually. Oddly, we created this business model that was not full-blown at the first hour of the first day; nothing with me ever is. We created this kind of conglomerate that was an anti-conglomerate because we've spun off 11 public companies over the last, I don't know, 15 or so years.

But it was very iterative, again lucky in that I had this primitive understanding of convergence and the coming of the internet. The internet came in 1995. There were so many possibilities, so many ideas—the good from the bad—and we picked more good than bad. They just came one after the other; the ground was just so fertile. That was maybe the second revolution, and now we're embarking on the third revolution.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

If you want to be an AI opportunist, is the lesson from that chapter that you should do a lot of things? That you should just be biased to action and say yes, rather than be nitpicky about it?

9. Bill Gates

Barry Diller

We were very picky because, unlike most people at the time who just thought getting attention—almost everyone in the early internet wanted to go after volume, meaning eyeballs—we thought, no, we treat revenue importantly against expenses. We didn't do those Webvan-y things that were good but were very much before their time, and not just simply an aggregation of eyeballs.

I would approach this next super-period in the same way, which would make me very wary of what now seems to be the cat's meow, which is huge expenditures in areas in which there is no known revenue, or no known big revenue, to relate to hundreds of billions of dollars of investment. Tell me how that's actually going to return. Now, of course, some of it will, whatever, but I would be dodgy about that.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

In this chapter in the ’90s, a whole new cast of characters enters the scene. There was this amazing Larry Ellison interview on Charlie Rose where he quotes you talking about Bill Gates, which I found from way, way back when. It was around the whole Ticketmaster thing, which certainly relates to the AI copyright stuff today—kind of a similar episode, history repeating—and you said something very funny, which was, “He’s young, he’s mean, and he’s not tired.”

Barry Diller

All of those things definitely were true. Actually, that's not fair to Bill, who I like very much and respect a great deal. Usually, I think people do not grow. I think they kind of, by the time they're—

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Sentient, they're relatively fully—

Barry Diller

Gates has grown enormously in so many areas—empathy, but he was mean and relentless. He is no longer that. He's a solid citizen of today and tomorrow.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Did you ever see anyone more competitive and aggressive than him in his heyday, at that time?

Barry Diller

He was truly ferocious, and he understood leverage. Anybody who's in any world of commanding or revolutionizing a world—which Gates certainly did—has got that quality.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Many people would love to be the person that you were in the internet era for this AI era. You did these 150 deals. What was that process like? What was the team like that found them? How much of it did you just do yourself?

Barry Diller

We never had a lot of people, but we had a lot of stimulants, and anybody who had an idea was a good idea. You can't do good ideas until you ratchet through a lot of rotten ideas.

I've always thought you've got to tolerate stupidity, because in any kind of argument about what to do, what not to do, the future, whatever, you've got to be stupid before you're smart. You've got to go through that process of allowing dumb stuff to come out, because in the dumb stuff alongside of it is some little smart thing. If you can tease that one out and act on it, you've got a shot.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Was there a defining early transaction, other than QVC and HSN in those days, that you think back on?

Barry Diller

There were the early obvious ones, but Match.com Personals was also something that, at that time, was very early-stage and primitive, and again, just a good idea. There were players around it that we had kind of rejected, but then we came upon this tiny little company in Texas called Match.com, and we bought it. Then it just spawned everything.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

One thing spawns the next thing, and out of little Match came all sorts of different personals brands, and then along came Tinder.

Barry Diller

This was the definition of an idea that, with no investment—I don't know, I think the investment in Tinder was nickels—but absolutely virally just shot to the skies.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

You've got this interesting setup with IAC now. You've spun out all these businesses. You've been this amazing capital allocator. One thing that's so remarkable is that Buffett's observed this lots of times: Usually, amazing executives get to the promised land, which is tons of free cash flow they can do something with, and now they have to be an allocator, and they stink at it. You had the opposite experience—arguably a better allocator even than executive. You're an allocator again. It's amazing that you're still doing this through IAC. How do you think about that job in this world?

Barry Diller

I think I'm no longer qualified for it. That's what I think. I think I'm irrelevant to it.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Why?

10. MGM Investment

Barry Diller

Because I don't want to do it anymore. It's really for others to do. I also have this whole thing about dodging every aspect of age and thinking about it and conceptualizing it, which I think is a horrible thing to do, so I stay way away from it.

But the one thing I am aware of is that I still have a lot of curiosity, but this world we're entering is too much for my curiosity load to relate to.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

I don't think I've ever conceptualized that.

Barry Diller

Well, by the way, this is why one of the things that interested me: We own 24% of MGM. Why does that appeal to me? Because you can't disintermediate it. You give me any AI equation, and I will tell you, “Irrelevant to this.” No one's going to get between going to an MGM resort—let's put it particularly in Las Vegas, in which we have a huge share of Las Vegas. We have 11 properties in Las Vegas. No tech is getting between that and a human.

I'm actually—it's maybe going, you know, it's like The Flintstones. I'm going back to the—

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

I was going to say, yeah—

Barry Diller

—to the dark ages. But I think that, to me, because it is so unlike everything else in the world that I see—almost everything else is able to be disintermediated by this, that, and the other thing, and this isn't—it fascinates me.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

I certainly understand how a visit to a place, a concert, or something live in person can't be. What about betting, though? Polymarket and [likely Kalshi], and these markets—people are glued to their phones. A $10 million valuation today or yesterday?

Barry Diller

I think that's crazy.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Do you think that's a major threat to MGM?

Barry Diller

No.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Because people want to go.

Barry Diller

People want to go. The gambling part of it is certainly an important part of the revenue, but it's not the most important part.

The thing is, we have these resorts that, if you just look at the depth and breadth in Las Vegas, we have 490 restaurants. We have 125 performance venues, from 25,000 seats down to a few thousand seats. We have so many ideas of things and places to do and to go and to be and to enjoy and to entertain, and all of those things. Gaming's over here, but that's the plotting and pleasure of it, to me.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

The other person that I would argue built the modern media world with you is John Malone, who just came out with the book as well.

Barry Diller

Yes.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

What was it like being around him, being with him?

11. Best Negotiation Advice

Barry Diller

Malone was, and is today—I talk to John frequently—the smartest one in the room. There's just no question. He brings to it, again, people's ingredients and their history and whatever. John's an engineer by training, but he has such a pure ability to analyze almost any situation because he brings this engineer's frame with an absolute rounded understanding of every technological possibility that could possibly happen. He can mix all that—

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Both horizontally and vertically.

Barry Diller

And so when you're talking to him, you're really talking to a master. He's a master craftsman.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

What did Lou Wasserman teach you about negotiation?

Barry Diller

Lou Wasserman was the legendary chairman of MCA, which started as a talent agency and became Universal Studios and other kinds of things. I grew up with his daughter as my friend, and so I knew him when I was very young.

But then, when I was in my 20s and negotiating movies, I went to his office to close one deal. Of the 60-some-odd units we were buying, because we were paying a big price, I said to him, “Can you just give us one less?” And he just looked at me. He said, “No.” I said, “What do you mean, no?” And he said, “No.” He kind of said, “That's it.” We got up and walked out the door.

He said to me, “So, let me tell you something. When you're in a negotiation, you better be prepared, if I say no, to blow the deal, or you're never going to get what you want.” It was the greatest lesson in leverage and in organizing in your brain how far you're prepared to go. You must figure that out up front. You draw a line, and you must demonstrate that beyond that line, you will never go.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

That's how I learned to negotiate. How did you produce so many people that have gone on to great things? Eisner, Katzenberg, Kilar.

Barry Diller

I don't produce them. They grow up in your environment, and I like environments where, in all those cases, just like me, I was totally unprepared and had no reason for anyone to give me any responsibility—no experience about anything, right? But I got dropped in the deep end of the water, and I kind of figured out how to swim.

12. Simpsons Origins

I like people coming into any orbit of mine without any experience, particularly without any necessary expertise, without having been “made” at kind of the earliest stage. Then you give people more responsibility than they qualify for, because in that forge you find out who swims and who doesn’t. If you have that kind of environment, out of it are going to come pretty good people.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

What made Eisner so special?

Barry Diller

Oh, Michael is just this big guy whose brain is so creative and whose mind is so fertile that it just outspins stuff faster than his mouth can do it. Stuff comes out a little like, “That’s goofy.” But the next thing is absolutely brilliant. It’s actual original thought, and he is capable of that.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

I lost track of The Simpsons, which I think is maybe the most profitable show ever in history—probably the longest-running.

Barry Diller

Yeah. Well, it’s that, but it’s also probably the single most profitable entertainment product ever invented.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

What was it like at its origin?

Barry Diller

Everybody thought it was stupid.

Patrick O’Shaughnessy

Yeah.

Barry Diller

And they thought it was stupid because it was a cartoon.

Patrick O’Shaughnessy

You just liked it?

Barry Diller

Well, Jim Brooks, who is the creative force of this along with Matt Groening, and I were in this screening. When you’re making things, and particularly comedies, and you’re in a room with other people and you’re involved in the making of the thing, you laugh harder at things. You kind of want to create laughter so that other people will laugh, so you’re overengaged.

And so Jim and I are laughing. We had, by the way, long stopped laughing at this stuff because we’d seen it 100 times. We’re laughing to create, with these 12 suits, some laughter in the room. They’re just solid hunks, not even moving. It was so sad.

Afterward, they said, “Well, you know, we’re not successful enough to just write this off. I don’t know what you’re going to do with this. You certainly can’t put it on the air.” And, of course, like many things, from the first hour of the first day that it went on the air, it was a smash.

Patrick O’Shaughnessy

I mean, it’s been running ever since, and it’s the most profitable thing ever. How, through the lens of The Simpsons, do you think about the world of entertainment today? There just seems like nothing—it seems like nothing like that will ever happen again.

Barry Diller

Oh, no. I don’t know that that’s true. I just think that now—I mean, by then, some cable networks had gotten successful, but that was a time when there were fewer options. There were still a reasonable number of options. Today, the options are so unlimited. There’s just so much out there, whether your time is spent on TikTok or Instagram or watching television programs and streamers and this and that.

If you make an entertainment product, a movie or a television series, the amount of people who see it is your revenue stream. There’s your reaction. You go back to the olden times of today’s times—rarely, but in theaters—people come into the place, sit in seats, they like it, they pay their money, and you see them and they leave, and they come and they leave and they come.

How do you deal when the business model, instead of being the audience reaction to it, is to take a subscription to Prime, whose business model is to get you to buy products on Amazon, where they offer you, on the side, amazing movies, movies and television programs? They could not care less whether 1 person or 9 billion people see it. It’s just whether or not we get more Prime subscriptions. Or the Apple environment, which is to keep you in the closed circle of Apple rather than any 1 thing that you want.

So, if you’re a maker of these things, or if you’re in the vineyard of trying to create this stuff, it’s just dismaying that the business models are so vastly different. It’s not the best environment for making work.

Patrick O’Shaughnessy

If you add Netflix into that category—

Barry Diller

Well, yes, of course Netflix is in that. Netflix is the leader of it. Hollywood is irrelevant. No, I mean, it’s not. People yell at me for saying that. First of all, it used to be that all these companies did was make movies and television shows, from the top of their executives to the bottom. Now, making the product is the 68th or 78th division inside very large enterprises. So it’s just so down on the totem pole of stuff that it makes the process—

Look, the fun of it is mostly as an organizing process. The fun of it is gone.

Patrick O’Shaughnessy

Is glamour gone too?

Barry Diller

Gone. It’s just now in other areas.

Patrick O’Shaughnessy

Where is that? Where is glamour?

Barry Diller

Certainly not in Hollywood, where it was. But that’s—you know, now it’s dispersed. Of course, now it’s probably on Instagram. It’s in other things, but it’s not that. The whole hegemony has now been transferred to the world of big tech.

And is this going to be true—and this is probably the biggest question of AI—because it is possible that our entire worlds will be subsumed by further advances, AI advances of big tech, in which case, in the end, we’ll all be a simulation anyway. And as one of my friends said, maybe we’ll have a happy ending.

Patrick O’Shaughnessy

I saw these amazing photo spreads from Sun Valley in, like, the ’90s, when entertainment was in its complete ascendance and blooming. You’ve been to these conferences, these sorts of conferences, your whole life. Does it now just feel like the center of gravity is entirely shifted to tech, away from the entertainment people?

13. Publishing In AI Era

Barry Diller

Completely, completely shifted. And, after all, it is true, the cultural stuff aside—and maybe it’s just an old dog talking—but the fact that it has dispersed so that there is just so much now, there’s so much optionality, everything comes and goes so quickly.

It used to be there was a cultural event. Take one of the great cultural events of this era, which was Roots, the seminal thing that went for 11 nights and captured 45% to 50% of the population of this country and lived in the cultural environment for months. You do good work today, it’s here today, it’s gone in the next hour.

Patrick O’Shaughnessy

So, you’ve got IAC, Dotdash Meredith, which has People?

Barry Diller

Yes.

Patrick O’Shaughnessy

Talk about that business. In print—it’s print media, in many cases—how have you made this such a strong business? It feels like an anachronism, and yet it’s a really strong business.

Barry Diller

Yeah. Well, we’re doing it, I hope. I spent, actually, just before I got here, 2 hours with Travel + Leisure, which is doing extremely well. And yet publishing—all publishers—what’s happening with Google is just—it is going, you know. They say it goes slow and then it goes fast. It’s going fast. I mean, it really is.

If you depend on your traffic from Google, from search, you’re going to be close to extinct if that’s what you do. And that’s a huge issue. But directly to the question, we were talking, and this one magazine of ours is doing very well: 1 million subscriptions, extremely strong digital life, whatever. Nevertheless, it’s got this Google paradox, which is direct searches are dying.

So I said to the creative people, “Don’t you have to kind of invert your business? You create content, from People magazine to Food & Wine to all these areas—this incredible gold mine of content, of ideas and of subject areas, et cetera. And you publish them in both print and make 10 million copies a year. It’s more than that. Anyway, whatever. We still have a print business and a big digital business, and they’re doing really well at it—certainly far better than their competition.”

But I said, “Back up 4 years ago, 5 years ago, and you’re Travel + Leisure. So you know something about the travel business, and you know that lure. How come you didn’t create The White Lotus? How come it didn’t come out of you? Because think of what would have happened if it did come out of you. And there’s no reason it didn’t, other than you have not inverted your business.

“We own Food & Wine. Why didn’t, if you’re in the food and wine business, liquor business, or the whatever-drinking business, and you know a lot about that—you know where trends are and you know what’s happening—how come you didn’t do Casamigos?”

So, if you think about our businesses that way, then you succeed and fail, but you come up with hundreds of things to pursue that, if some of them work out, you build a giant company anyway.

Patrick O’Shaughnessy

So, the media becomes the marketing.

Barry Diller

Exactly.

Barry Diller 如何打造娱乐帝国 — 文字稿与摘要 | BidClub