如何分析 ETH:BTC 交易｜1000x

I’m broadcasting to you live from London, England. Hello, Avi. How are you, mate?

I’m doing all right. Jonah, is the price of Bitcoin the same in London as it is here?

Importantly, it is, but it’s counted in pounds. The pound is a little bit lower—below $30,000—so it still looks low relative to the past.

Do you remember when the pound almost hit parity with the dollar?

Yeah, there was a massive sell-off because of the gilts. That was earlier this year.

No, that was 2022. The government did something stupid with pensions. I forget exactly why the pound tanked.

I had this rah-rah-America—I’m American living in London—mentality that the pound was just going to keep dropping, and then it ripped right back.

Yeah, I remember when it hit parity. It’s funny how these things tend to work. It’s peak hysteria, peak panic, peak “oh my God, new paradigm,” or “this time is different, it’s all over.” That’s always the bottom.

It’s true in every single market. I remember at a dollar I was browsing real estate in Dubai and London, along with everybody else. That’s why it bounced back.

London is an amazing fiscal quasi-haven for a lot of people around the globe—not to talk about London real estate.

Oh yeah, that was September 30, 2022. My timing is way off, but I remember that back then, as we were browsing real estate, everything ripped back and it never ended up pulling back.

I was hearing—and maybe when I come join you in London next week, we’ll go do some sniffing around—that a lot of people in the UK have 10-year mortgages as opposed to 30-year mortgages. The rate is fixed for 10 years, not 30 years, so as rates go up, it’s going to put a lot more pressure on the UK housing market than it does on the U.S. housing market. They’re already talking to some dealers about a lot of supply coming on, so maybe we should go house-shopping together.

We could be roommates. Atlanta Life would be super happy about that.

Moving in with Avi.

Last week, we spent a lot of time feeling pretty good. The price of Bitcoin hit $30,000 in the middle of our podcast for the first time in months. We’re both long, and it felt good. This time, why don’t we take a moment to explore and learn from some of the worst trades we’ve ever done?

Avi, where can you start? What’s one of the stupidest, worst, or most costly trades you’ve ever done in your career, and how has it helped you become a better trader since then?

Every bad trade that you take is a tremendous learning opportunity. In my opinion, you learn the most from the trades that you messed up. I learned almost nothing from the trades that I won big on. Sometimes a little bit, but realistically, I just feel good.

The biggest learning opportunity for me was back in 2019, when Bitcoin ripped from $3,000 to $14,000. I had done a very good job riding that wave. I was one of the larger participants on Deribit at the time. There wasn’t a lot of options volume going through, and volatility was tremendously mispriced.

After Bitcoin ripped from $3,000 to $4,000, I just started buying upside, buying upside, buying upside. I ran up my account very quickly. Then, at $13,000–$14,000, there was a little bit of recency bias. I thought, “I’ve made so much money buying these options, and I’ve made so much money exploiting this inefficiency. Even though the inefficiency has completely gone at this point—volatility was trading 100 points higher in my mind—I’m really good at this. This has been a really good instrument, and I think I can make a lot of money if I keep going.”

So you just took an absolute beating at the top, at $14,000, because you were so exposed to upside calls.

I remember one moment where I probably could have gotten out, but I thought about it in the wrong way. On the sell-off from $14,000 to $12,000—it was a pretty rapid sell-off—volatility in options went up so much that despite Bitcoin going down 10%–15% in price, the value of my options only went down 5%–6%. It was insane. My calls were going the wrong way with price, but they stayed almost the same price.

I looked at that and thought, “That’s a great opportunity to stay long because I haven’t lost any money, so there’s no reason to sell.” The lesson I learned from that trade, which has actually been a phenomenal trade over the last few years, is that any time you get a massive short-term spike in volatility in the crypto markets, that is a 99% hit-rate sell.

You can build a model on that. If you get a one-day, two- or three-standard-deviation move in volatility, you should probably sell.

It makes it even better when it’s close to the end of the month.

That trade taught you a good lesson. Thank you for sharing.

For me, earlier in my career, I was fresh out of the gates and scared to lose money. Somebody finally gave me the advice: “Jonah, if you trade not to lose money, you’ll just lose money. Trade to make money. It involves taking some risk and putting yourself out there.”

I was still nervous, and I spent a lot of time trying to think things through before I dipped my toes in, because once you dip your toes in, you have to be prepared to get wet. I ended up getting a couple of things pretty right, namely Facebook stock and Bitcoin, and to some extent crude oil.

I was a little bit too quick to take profits. I would make 10%, 20%, 30%, or 50% on a little bit of money in my PA, and I would just take profit. I thought, “Wow, this is great.” Then those things went up another 100x—or 10x in the case of Facebook—and I missed all of it. I thought, “I need to learn to ride a trend.”

That led to 2018, the worst trade of my career: a conviction long in crude oil. I was dead right. The market was tightening, supply was dropping off a cliff, and everything was going right. I was max long at my company, with a lot of capital and a lot of risk tolerance, and I was having the best year of my career. Very quickly, things just got better and better.

Then Trump came in and basically got nervous about the price of oil, because high gasoline prices nuke presidencies in election years. He went soft on Iran and waived the sanctions for a bit. I didn’t adapt to that information. I stayed drum-beating long on crude oil because of everything I had learned about missing out on big trends. I thought this was going to be a big trend, and I lost so much money that it took me a year and a half to get back to my high-water mark.

What I’ve learned from that—and what Bitcoin and crypto traders all over the world should hopefully take notice of—is that you can kick yourself when you miss a big trend, and you can kick yourself when you think there’s going to be a big trend and it snaps back in your face.

The critical piece of analysis is to ask yourself whether you’re on the break of some new technological or market-based unlock, or whether you’re at the peak of a hype cycle that’s going to revert because participants now perceive the asset you’ve ridden to this point to be unattractive from a price perspective.

Bitcoin miners might be saying, “At $30,000, this looks like a level where we should really try to finance our business for years after what we’ve just been through. Let’s sell everything.” Crypto could go straight back down. Equally, if we’re at $30,000 because a BlackRock ETF is about to get approved and 20 times more capital is about to enter this market, don’t sell, whatever you do.

I think you can learn a lot from studying previous bubbles, and you can learn a lot from studying previous trends. One of the most important things you can do—and probably the thing that’s made me the single most money in my entire career—is to be a student of history.

Every time I talk to an older trader, or have conversations with people in this business who have been very successful, there are really 2 things that stand out to me. One is that they’ve built themselves tremendous intuition through many hours of studying chart information, balance sheets, and data. They’ve built themselves tremendous intuition to the point where people will look at Druckenmiller or Soros and say, “How did they make that decision? How did they make it so quickly? How did they make the right decision?”

The reality is that a lot of it is just prior study. It’s like wrestling: you build muscle memory for yourself. You do certain things in certain situations, and you just know to do those things. That comes from practice and studying.

The second thing they study the most is often history. It’s understanding what has happened in the past and how to apply that to the future.

I’ll mention some of my favorite books. I would probably read 3. I would read The Great Game: The Emergence of Wall Street as a World Power by John Steele Gordon, which is a history of Wall Street. It takes you through every scam that anybody on Wall Street has ever pulled.

There are anecdotes about how, during the railroad boom, people would rename their companies the Long Island Railroad Company and watch the stock go up. There are stories about Jay Gould and his cornering of markets. There’s also a famous story where a guy known to have a hot hand on the Street in the 1920s goes to a club. He writes down a list of stocks to buy, hands it to his broker, and tells the broker to accidentally drop it on the way out of the club.

The broker accidentally drops it, a bunch of people pick it up, and they think, “This guy has a really hot hand. Let me go buy these stocks.” Then he proceeds to sell the stocks to them. There are all these different anecdotes and funny things that happen.

I’d also read The Alchemy of Finance by George Soros, which I think is the best book in the world at teaching somebody how to play a bubble. If you’re in crypto, you need to read this book. It’s a seminal text of crypto despite being written many years before crypto was invented. It deals with the concept of reflexivity.

Finally, I’d read the autobiography of Bernard Baruch, which is a phenomenal book. It follows Bernard Baruch, one of the greatest traders of all time, who successfully pivoted into politics from trading and ended up as an adviser to FDR. He lived a fascinating life.

Those books built a strong foundation for me in terms of developing my personal trading style, which is generally waiting for big opportunities and then, when I find those big opportunities, pressing them hard and riding the trend. Patience and discipline are the 2 most important characteristics of any good trader. They’re related, but they’re different.

I’d add The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power by Daniel Yergin. Since you mentioned history, and these are history books, this is a 1,000-page, 150-year history of crude oil.

The reason it’s so important for crypto and traders in most markets is that a commodity is tradable technology, and crypto is also tradable technology. That’s why I think crypto is a commodity.

There are many similarities between ETH and crude oil. Oil is deflationary: you can occasionally mine more, but every time you put a little bit of it in your airplane to fly somewhere, or in a bus to travel somewhere, the global supply decreases. Gas is burned. There are scaling solutions—that’s the equivalent of finding more—but ultimately, it’s a deflationary asset that you use to unlock value in some product or service, just like oil.

Oil in its early days—you learn this in The Prize—was subject to the same barbell debate that we have in crypto today: is it useful, or is it a scam? Is it garbage?

The same thing happened with crude oil back in the day, when a bunch of Yale scientists were messing around with it. People were asking, “Is this the future? Are we going to be able to replace whale oil with kerosene, create kerosene, and make light out of it? Or is it just a bunch of tar bubbling out of the ground because there’s literally that much of it—a useless waste product?”

You can look at the inflation-adjusted price chart of crude oil in this book. One of the highest prices it reached—if not the highest, the second- or third-highest—on an inflation-adjusted basis was in the late 1800s, and then it went down 99% from there.

That’s because they didn’t hard-cap it. They should have hard-capped it.

It’s fascinating that there were people who wrote it off as, “Maybe it’s just black tar bubbling out of the ground. It might not actually be useful. It’s not technology.” You never really think about things like that.

I like comparing the builders in the crypto space to the Yale scientists who were slaving away in the chemistry lab trying to refine it. It’s not that hard: you boil it, take the steam, cool the steam back off, and you have kerosene, which flies jets and creates light.

In crypto, it’s like asking, “Does the world need a publicly owned spreadsheet?” Yes, it probably does. To me, this seems obvious, but to all the naysayers out there, it’s a question of, “Why?” You could have Amazon Web Services do the same thing.

We should get a naysayer on the podcast sometime. At this point, the people who hate this stuff just don’t understand it. It would be like debating a flat-earther. Why even debate the thing?

The valid points they bring up are things I agree with, but that’s circular reasoning because then obviously I’m doing the opposite. For example, a lot of the points brought up around whether utility tokens are useful are, “The majority of them aren’t.” But that’s well understood by every professional participant in the asset class.

What gives Bitcoin value? Nothing, except the belief that it has value, and the fact that it’s better money on a variety of different metrics. But people say that crypto has no backing. Fine.

Is crypto, or is DeFi, better or worse than the traditional financial system? The people who say that the underlying technology of the traditional financial system is better than the underlying technology of DeFi are delusional. There’s no argument. It’s just not true.

The arguments they might bring up are, “You can’t do KYC, you can’t do AML, and you can’t have privacy.” You can build those things on top of DeFi. It just won’t be the DeFi that we see today. It’ll be a very different version of it, but you can still build it, and it’ll still be better built on the crypto stack.

Speaking of DeFi, have you been paying attention to these DeFi 1.0 pumps? I’m scratching my head a little bit. Even BCH ripped 150% in the last few days. What is going on?

I genuinely think that a lot of these things were just horrifically under-owned. There’s no speculative money in them. The only people who held them were the people holding them for the long term. The only sellers were the people who were already holding them, receiving inflation, and selling.

I think this is less of a fundamental move. I don’t think anything has changed fundamentally for DeFi. I just think it was a massive, effective short squeeze. People woke up and realized they had zero DeFi exposure, and that it was possible to get exposure.

One downstream effect of the ETF getting approved is that some people are speculating this is happening because the SEC is being told by the Biden administration to loosen up on crypto. I have no insight into that.

That’s a similar thesis to yours, which I assumed was just me being lazy and not doing the research. I thought that something that had been fire-sold for over a year—the DeFi asset class, with FTX not helping—had simply gone down-only for a while.

Then it goes up a little bit, and you have a bear-market rally from the low point. You can say, “Wow, this is a big rally,” but in reality, when another year goes by, we’ll zoom out and look at this price action as a blip in a downtrend. I assumed it was just that kind of fractal volatility in the middle of a bear market for a particular asset class.

I didn’t think there was anything more to it, but it’s worth talking about in case we’re missing something obvious.

I don’t think we’re missing anything obvious. In terms of BCH and LTC, BCH is a very tightly controlled asset. I don’t want to necessarily make any accusations, but it’s very tightly controlled, which means that it’s very easy to move the price and manufacture these types of moves.

I think LTC tends to follow because what happens in these situations is that you see a leader, and then everybody piles into the secondary asset. One thing I’ve learned time and time again trading crypto is that it’s highly reflexive, so you almost never make as much money buying the laggard as you do the leader.

If you buy the laggard, it’s a 1- to 3-day trade, and you’re looking for some level of convergence—10%, 15%, or 20%, especially in this environment. You’re not looking for the same returns as with the leader. More likely than not, the leader is going to outperform the laggard.

People tend to crowd into the winner. They don’t tend to buy the loser in hopes of catching up, unless you’re talking about a bull market—full-on, crazy, everything pumping 100% left and right. Even then, the same principle applies.

Looking at DeFi, the top performers today on my DeFi list include GRT, which I don’t know why is up 14%; BitDAO, which is going through a rebranding to Mantle DAO; and Blur, which I’m actually quite bullish on as well because I’m bullish on NFTs.

Bybit has just been such a winner out of all these Binance issues. You’ve also got Frax and Maker. A lot of these things were just super tightly held assets.

You brought up something interesting that I want to double-click on.

Double-click? What are we, consultants? We’re going to boil the ocean next, from 30,000 feet.

I’m so sorry. I tried the corporate life. It’s killed you, man. Let’s try that again.

Something I wanted to think through with you is NFTs. You mentioned Blur, the intersection of DeFi and NFTs, and you also mentioned how buying the laggard is a terrible strategy that earns you a tiny fraction of the return with an explosive multiple of the risk.

It’s funny you mentioned those 2 things, because the closest market to crypto when it comes to leaders and laggards is the art market.

When you buy art, all the people who are good at it—and there are very few—say, “Buy the best artists, and buy the best pieces by the best artists. Do not mess with anything other than the best of the best. Everything else is garbage.”

That’s obviously difficult. It’s hard to pick the best artists before they become too expensive, and it’s hard to pick their best pieces until their styles become known. But that is indeed the best way to invest in art.

With NFTs being art, is there any other trade besides Zombie Punks, Apes, Ape Punks, Aliens, and Punks? I know Azuki just did something crazy, but is all of this totally to be ignored? Is the Bored Ape Yacht Club dead? Does the leader-laggard relationship that you mentioned in crypto apply to NFTs?

I don’t think it applies as much to something like a Bored Ape, an Azuki, or things that were hot at a given time in the cryptosphere.

A lot of the profile-picture NFT projects are effectively brands that come in and out of style. You can think of them as Gucci, Prada, or Versace. Whoever has the best designer at any given moment is producing the best stuff. American Eagle comes into fashion and goes out of fashion.

It’s about reputation. It’s not like Picasso or Damien Hirst. These projects are where they are because of the community and because the team behind them is constantly doing things with the project, and the community can wax and wane in potency and effectiveness.

Now, though, there’s a different story. You read my mind. Fidenzas, Squiggles, Punks, and Rocks are a different story.

Who’s your favorite traditional artist, if you had to pick one? Mine’s Franz Kline.

I don’t know that much about the traditional art world. I’ve gotten some exposure to it recently, and I think it’s a fascinating space.

I know a lot more about the gem and jewelry market than I do about the art market. As a half-Indian, half-Jewish person, I guess I had to. I find it really fascinating.

Why are you bullish on NFTs? Teach me.

My thinking isn’t that differentiated. There are really 2 things.

One is that as the crypto market goes up, the wealth effect will make people want to display their wealth. They’re not going to display it in the form of gaudy purchases in the real world. They’re going to buy gaudy things in the digital world, and those things are going to be NFTs.

People are going to take the money they make and go flex their Rocks, Fidenzas, Squiggles, and all sorts of other expensive things. It will become more accepted.

The other thing—and this stays in our little circle of you and me, everybody listening to this podcast, and everybody on my Twitter—is that I’ve made a few friends in the traditional art world, in the New York space. They’ve mentioned to me that NFTs are something they pay attention to now. They’re not going away in the way I thought they might.

There’s actually a gallery down the street from our London office called Pace, in Mayfair. I bought my first piece there.

Really?

They were showing NFTs at that gallery. I do think there’s some semblance of acceptance from the traditional art world—way more than there was a year and a half ago. Because these things have stuck around, people are saying, “Okay, they’re not going anywhere. Got it. Understood.”

It’s more of an immersion into culture. There’s actually a third point here: NFTs are rapidly expanding outside of just art.

You have Nike introducing the Nike.Swoosh, Starbucks introducing its NFTs, and artists—we invested in a platform called Fan3 that’s helping artists issue NFTs at greater scale. I can’t give away too much, but they have a lot of great DJs lined up to issue NFTs that give exclusive access to conferences and music. They also have athletes lined up.

People are thinking about NFTs in a much broader context than they were previously. There’s pretty negative sentiment with respect to NFTs right now, in that almost everyone is ignoring them. The percentage of people in crypto who pay attention to NFTs has dropped off a cliff, but activity and acceptance are picking up.

I’m bullish, too. In the technology hype cycle, you have the technology being innovated, then the peak of euphoria, then the trough of disillusionment, and then it slopes into the enlightenment phase.

I think we’re past the trough of disillusionment with NFTs. Maybe not with crypto more broadly, but with NFTs for sure.

I agree with you that they’re percolating into the traditional art world. My big art guru and adviser is Nathan Clements-Gillespie, and he runs the Frieze Festival. I was having a conversation with him in Venice last year about what NFTs could be in terms of traditional art.

Frankly, the most interesting thing to me is that anybody who owns art has to own a certificate of authenticity to authenticate the piece. That document is printed on a piece of paper and could be forged. It’s effectively a piece of garbage.

Wouldn’t it be better if all art were effectively an NFT with a physical print? By the way, that’s how I feel about so many things.

Why the heck would I have a deed—a piece of paper that says I own this thing?

Yes, it’s in a registry as well, but if I lose the deed, it’s still a headache.

Exactly. Why is it still in a safety-deposit box somewhere? These deeds still say things like, “This is actually a da Vinci.” Is it really a da Vinci? Take Salvator Mundi, which Prince Mohammed bin Salman bought for $500 million. What if there had been an NFT associated with that certificate of authenticity, rather than it being registered with a bank in Northern Italy five or six hundred years ago when it was created? It could simply have been put on a blockchain and lasted forever.

That’s how art ownership—and ownership of anything—should be stored.

Is there a company you would trust with the certificate of authenticity for your art, or with the deed to your house? I wouldn’t want to trust some startup, or even Microsoft, with that. I’d prefer to have it on Chase, frankly.

So here’s a business idea for any entrepreneurial crypto people out there. There are 2 sides to it: on-chain certificates of authenticity for traditional art, and the opposite—a service for wealthy traditional-art collectors who buy from galleries and don’t want to go into MetaMask and deal with anything. They just want to sign something through DocuSign and then own their art.

Secure storage for NFTs bought at traditional art galleries—that dual service is a real crypto business that needs to exist. If anyone’s creating it, hit us up.

I agree wholeheartedly. I don’t know how we got stuck on the topic of talking about art, but it hit big. I think if it goes up, it’s because it’s a use case for the chain.

Speaking of BTC, where’s it going right now? Let’s timestamp it. It’s at .064.

Let me preface this by saying that on the last podcast we talked about being bearish on BTC up until the ETF launch. We talked about being bearish on alts up until the ETF launch. Since then, alts have actually done okay. BTC dominance is up since the podcast, but there are some select alts that have done all right.

Personally, over the last 2 weeks, I’ve changed my opinion and gotten longer ETH/BTC. I’ve bought ETH, and I’ve bought other alts. My favorite trades in the world are still long GBTC, ETH, Stacks, and BTC upside, but we did buy other alts over the last 2 weeks.

I think that especially if BTC gets stuck in this range, we’re going to see some outperformance.

Can ETH keep up?

If BTC keeps going up, I think ETH absolutely can’t. The best trade in crypto is long GBTC.

Unlike traditional markets, where there’s more than enough capital to pre-hedge pretty much any type of announcement or widely anticipated information, there isn’t enough money that can get into crypto to pre-position for what a BlackRock ETF approval would bring in.

Because of that, there’s a fundamental mispricing in the crypto market. Anybody who can buy Bitcoin spot right now, or buy GBTC, has the ability to get ahead of a potential BlackRock ETF approval. I think that would set the price up.

The reason the price isn’t already up in a probabilistically weighted way is that it’s hard for capital to get into crypto right now. The pathways and gateways, or the will and risk appetite, are lacking.

I think GBTC is the best trade. To respond to your question about where BTC goes from here, I don’t know where it goes. What I’m confident in is that if you wait for an ETF approval and the BlackRock ETF gets approved, that’s when you buy. I don’t think it’s a buy right now.

Here’s my cynical take: I don’t think the ETF drives truly meaningful flows. I think it drives semi-meaningful flows—maybe a few billion, perhaps $3 billion or $4 billion. I think a significant amount of that is unfortunately offset by people who own GBTC and would redeem and get out of the trade.

There are funds right now that own GBTC outright. When the ETF is approved, they’ll drain GBTC of its Bitcoin and get out of the trade. There are a lot that own GBTC in a market-neutral fashion, but there are also a lot that own it outright and are willing to take the price risk of Bitcoin. When that gap closes, they’re simply out.

I do think there will be some time between a potential BlackRock ETF approval and when you can redeem your GBTC.

Probably, but probably not long. I don’t think it would be very long.

I don’t think there will be many dominoes. I do think those flows somewhat offset, and I think a lot of the flows are front-run, too. Net, I don’t know how many flows come in. I think it’s a net positive for BTC over a long period of time.

My take is that if an ETF is approved, it looks very similar to the futures ETF approval. BTC tops effectively on the day of the ETF approval. ETH runs afterward and catches up very hard, then both top together for a foreseeable period. We go sideways, and then in Q1 2024, having started to approach the halving, we start going up again.

That’s my view of the market: the ETF is a sale, ETH goes up, then you sell ETH and pivot. You buy a little bit of ETH now, but then you pivot really hard, sell everything about a week later, and wait for the halving to get closer. Then you walk away a much wealthier man or woman.

I like that view because it’s one of those times when your style works better than mine. You really have to trade actively. You can’t just sit on your hands. You have to be nimble, willing to commit size, and willing to act when everybody is either fearful or euphoric.

It’s really as simple as this: when everybody’s panicking, you buy; when everybody’s euphoric, you sell. I can guarantee you with 100% certainty that on ETF approval, everybody is going to be absolutely euphoric.

BTC will be euphoric and ETH will be panicking, and then you buy ETH about a month in. That’s when you buy it—you dip-buy it after an approval, and then you pivot.

That’s also why I bought ETH/BTC around 0.0662. I noticed that the price of ETH wasn’t correlating with sentiment. I trade somewhat lower time frames, and one of my favorite trades is to take a sentiment divergence.

There are a couple of good services you can use to quantify it. I like The Tie a lot.

Me too. Shout-out to Josh Frank. Great product, great guy.

I have to disclose that we’re investors, but I genuinely do like the product.

What I noticed was a divergence. From Wednesday, June 28, through Friday, June 30, ETH sentiment kept getting worse and worse. Everybody hated it, but the price was flat. It wasn’t going down anymore.

When I see that, I like to start nibbling and buying. It’s the same reason I bought a little bit of Blur post-nuke. I see Blur capturing a larger portion of NFT volume every day. A lot of volume is running through it, it’s doing well, and NFT volumes are doing great. New projects are coming out, but the sentiment around NFTs is that nobody cares about them anymore.

I see a sentiment divergence there. DeFi was probably similar. After the SEC came after Coinbase, everybody thought DeFi would get absolutely nuked. Since nothing has happened, it’s going up again. Now that I’m thinking about it, that might be one of the reasons for the move up.

I want to wrap up the podcast with some general views and thoughts around the market. At a high level, where do you think we’re going over the next 6 months and over the next 12 months?

Parts of the crypto market are looking more like rational traditional markets, to your point. It’s best to be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy. They’re mean-reverting markets: buy dips, sell pops, and sensible markets.

The 2 megatrend assets that I think it would be dangerous to sell—the Jonah circa-10-years-ago mistake of selling Bitcoin or Facebook stock—are Bitcoin and ETH right now. I think we’re in the midst of a multidecade uptrend in both assets.

If you invest in a way that allows you to remain on the mechanical bull and not get thrown off, I think that’s the trade. Other things, like NFTs and DeFi, have been fire-sold. It’s probably time to buy them. Other things that are looking a little frothy, a little hot—maybe memecoins—might light up.

I think that’s a good line. I do think we’re at an inflection point for Bitcoin. We’re talking as if the ETF is definitely going to get approved, but I’d put it at a 75% chance.

I think we’re at an inflection point where Bitcoin becomes an institutionalized asset class and something that’s simply not going away. That solidifies, in my mind, the incoming bubble.

There are still a lot of people who don’t have exposure. There are still a lot of people who have written it off, but it hasn’t gone away, and it’s not going away. ETH continues to pick up traction.

I view the next few months as solidifying the base for crypto and allowing for a crazy run in 2024 and 2025.

I agree with you. Of course, a lot of this is investment advice. Tokens are risky; do your own research. We really appreciate you listening in to our views, but they are just our opinions, not advice. Again, not advice—never financial advice, because I would never do that.

I appreciate talking with you, as always. I’m super excited to see you in London. Maybe we’ll even do a podcast in person—an impromptu episode sitting across the table. You can get your kids involved. I actually think that would be great. We’ll ask the listeners if they want it and get some Sony Watts [?] takes there.

Yep—one-syllable, two-syllable takes. All right, Jonah. Catch up soon.