AI + 合成生物学:人类历史上最具颠覆性的技术 | Ben Lamm(Colossal)
- Lamm 将“灭绝动物复活”定义为 AI 驱动合成生物学平台的高难度试验场,而非一个新奇的终端市场。他说:“没有 AI,我们什么都做不了。”Diamandis 提到,公司在4年内从0升至100亿美元估值,称 Colossal 被严重低估;公司目前有260名科学家,其中200人在美国、60人在澳大利亚,另有 AI 程序员。
- 这套平台的设计目标,是在某项保护技术证明具备更广泛商业价值后,迅速孵化出聚焦型业务。第一家分拆公司 Breaking 使用可编辑的微生物群落,能够“真正打断化学键”来降解塑料,而不是制造更小的微塑料。Diamandis 称,公司有约12家公司的孵化管线;Lamm 的模式是为每项发现配备专门团队和资本,同时让改进成果在整个生态中共享。
- 政府可能成为生物多样性基础设施和物种保护项目的基础客户。Lamm 表示,阿联酋已同意向全球首个动物生物保藏库项目投入数亿美元,项目包括参考基因组、数字备份、全球共享数据和一座面向公众的活体实验室;双方各自对应的项目规模都在9位数。 他还转述 EY 的估算称,叠加与灭绝相关的消费需求、教育和周边效应后,潜在机会可达1.7万亿美元。
- 人工子宫可能是规模化的关键突破口,但 Lamm 明确披露,3个项目“目前都还不能运作”。北方白犀牛展示了目标经济性:2只存在亲缘关系的雌性、18枚存在亲缘关系的胚胎,以及每年约2500万美元的饲养成本。与此同时,Colossal 已收购克隆公司;Lamm 称 ViaGen 的克隆效率约为78%,而行业通常约为2%。
- 可服务市场还延伸至抗病动物和植物、疫苗以及生态系统适应。Lamm 以抗壶菌两栖动物为一个可落地案例,并估算更广泛市场目前规模达数千亿美元。他粗略表示,全球99%精通合成生物学和基因组工程的人都在聚焦人类医疗;同时指出,澳大利亚法律将重建的塔斯马尼亚虎视为转基因生物。
- 基因驱动生物防治瞄准的是一个 Lamm 估值达5.4万亿美元、且实际可能更大的全球入侵物种问题。经过改造的螺旋蝇可让后代全部为雄性,从而在不施毒、不设陷阱、不捕杀的情况下压低种群,同时让动物维持正常生活。Lamm 曾因蚊虫争议而怀疑这一领域,但 Colossal 的方案包含遏制和回滚机制,改变了他的看法。
- 投资者需要下注的护城河是技术复利,而不是复活动物带来的 spectacle。Colossal 已从40%效率下的少量编辑,进展到90%效率下的数百处分散编辑,Lamm 预计未来几年将达到数千处。他称,DNA 递送规模已经达到自己见过的最大基准的5倍,年底前或可达到20倍。人工子宫研究还产出了水凝胶、微流体和胚胎分级技术,可能迁移至 IVF。
1. 灭绝动物复活,是 AI 生物引擎的压力测试
这项创始选择源于 Lamm 向 George Church 询问:如果拥有无限资本和一生时间,他会做什么项目。Church 毫不犹豫地回答:让猛犸象复活、重新野化,并打造可用于物种保护和人类医疗的技术。Lamm 原本只打算把它作为副业项目资助,后来觉得“非常有意思”,并出任 CEO。
Lamm 选择灭绝动物复活,是因为这项工作同时要求计算生物学、细胞与基因工程、克隆、体细胞核移植,以及最终的人工子宫技术;它还迫使团队处理基因型与表型之间的关系、祖先状态重建和比较基因组学——这些都是构建可复用生物产品平台所必需、也最难攻克的环节。
已公开宣布的目标包括猛犸象、塔斯马尼亚虎、渡渡鸟和恐鸟;恐狼已经诞生,更多物种正在推进。最有冲击力的验证案例,是从一具73,000年前的头骨出发,在18个月内“制造出幼犬”——Romulus 和 Remus。
Diamandis 称,Colossal 在4年内从0升至100亿美元估值,并认为公司被严重低估。Lamm 称,公司有260名科学家,分布在美国和澳大利亚。尽管公司并不总是把 AI 放在对外叙事的最前面,但他的判断是绝对的:“没有 AI,我们什么都做不了。”
2. 平台产出转化为分拆公司和主权级基础设施
Breaking 起初看起来只是一个降解塑料的单一酶,后来证明实际依靠的是一组协同工作的微生物。Colossal 分别编辑不同微生物,使其针对不同塑料类型产生不同酶;定向进化和更广泛的研发管线扩大了处理范围并提高了速度,最终形成的工艺能够打断化学键,而不是仅仅把塑料碎裂成更小的颗粒。
Diamandis 提出过一个假设:开发一种补充剂,在微塑料被人体吸收前,于肠道内打断其化学键。Lamm 则强调,问题远不止如此:塑料会影响食物供应和生殖组织,有时还可能穿过血脑屏障,因此不可能存在“一招制胜的解决方案”。
Diamandis 将 Colossal 描述为一家母公司,计划分拆出约12家企业;其中一些尚未披露的项目,他称“规模相当,甚至更大”。Lamm 的架构则把这些分拆公司与主权级项目结合起来:每项发现都获得专门团队和资本,同时技术改进可以在整个生态中共享。
Lamm 转述 EY 的估算称,全球每年有12.5%的消费者会购买与灭绝相关的产品;如果计入教育和周边效应,潜在机会可达1.7万亿美元。另一方面,他表示阿联酋已同意向全球首个动物生物保藏库项目投入数亿美元,项目包括参考基因组、数字备份和全球共享的生物多样性数据。配套活体实验室对 Colossal 和阿联酋的项目规模都在9位数,教育内容将嵌入一处高流量设施,而不是藏在无人知晓的存储地点。
3. 只有繁殖实现规模化,保护才可能规模化
Lamm 明确披露,Colossal 面向3个动物类群的人工子宫项目“目前都还不能运作”。目标技术栈将生物保藏、合成生物学、机器人自动化、AI、计算机视觉和人工子宫结合起来,以实现“物种开发的生产化”,尤其针对妊娠周期长或遗传多样性受瓶颈限制的物种。
北方白犀牛把经济账算得很具体:仅存的2只雌性彼此有亲缘关系,18枚胚胎也存在亲缘关系,每年约需2500万美元维持这些动物的生存。Lamm 提出的路径是:通过保存样本和合成方式引入多样性,在人工子宫中规模化孕育动物,再将部分现有支出释放出来,用于水资源和教育等需求。
Diamandis 称,Colossal 已收购全球排名前两位的克隆公司;Lamm 确认主要公司是 ViaGen,并称 Colossal 还收购了另一家公司。他表示,历史上只有18个物种被成功克隆,其中15个由 ViaGen 完成;行业通常效率约为2%,ViaGen 则相当稳定地达到78%。ViaGen 完成了全部濒危物种克隆,包括黑足鼬;其盈利的宠物狗克隆业务仍在继续。
监管也是制造流程的一部分。Lamm 称,即便一只由53只、跨越约300年样本组装而成、与原物种“100%基因相同”的塔斯马尼亚虎,在澳大利亚法律下仍属于转基因生物。因此,要实现重新野化,就必须说服澳大利亚政府:反转基因叙事不能阻止恢复它希望回归的物种。
4. 生物防治将生态损害转化为大市场
抗病性是相邻产品,而不是脚注。Lamm 指出,壶菌目前是青蛙和其他两栖动物灭绝的首要驱动因素;通过工程手段培育抗病蛙类和蝾螈,可能保护整个生态系统。他还提到动物和植物的类似应用,以及常规疫苗和抗性方案,但明确表示 Colossal 目前没有开展珊瑚相关工作。
基因驱动技术瞄准的是一个 Lamm 按当前统计估值为5.4万亿美元的入侵物种问题,他认为实际规模更大。其最紧迫的案例是螺旋蝇从洪都拉斯和墨西哥向得州南部扩散,威胁牛和野牛;释放经过改造、可让后代全部为雄性的昆虫,能够压低种群,同时避免环境毒物、捕捉和杀灭。
Lamm 保留了反对意见:叫停蚊虫基因驱动释放“未必是坏事”,因为蚊虫参与食物链。2年前,在看到蚊虫释放项目的问题后,他本会对生物防治和基因驱动持怀疑态度;但现在,他认为 Colossal 的遏制和回滚能力十分关键。他称,美国入侵物种造成的经济影响每年超过5000亿美元,同时明确承认自己不知道实际的防治支出是多少。
5. IVF 外溢和编辑规模揭示技术护城河
Lamm 亲历 IVF 后,将基于单张形态学图像、且成像质量不佳来选择胚胎,称为“过时又感性”。在非模式物种以及小鼠等部分模式物种中,第2、3或5天看起来不太可能成功的胚胎,后来可能反而最健康,因为胚胎发育在不同阶段会加速或放缓。
Colossal 开发了水凝胶和微流体装置,使胚胎状态更健康,并让小鼠和非模式物种胚胎继续发育到更后阶段;公司还建立了一套 Lamm 认为效率和准确性更高的分级体系。公司不在人类身上开展这项工作,但他认为相关技术最终可能迁移到人类 IVF。
2至3年前,少量编辑在40%效率下就已优于约15%的行业水平;如今 Colossal 能以90%的效率完成数百处精确、分散的基因组编辑,Lamm 预计未来几年将达到数千处。他还称,公司的大规模 DNA 合成递送能力已经达到自己见过的最大规模的5倍,并认为年底前可能达到20倍。
Lamm 将这些进展归因于一种以产品和系统为导向的合成生物学方法,并由 AI 提供杠杆,而不是围绕人类医疗打造一次性的点状解决方案。人类医疗应用将通过授权或分拆实现,而不会纳入 Colossal 的核心业务。Lamm 称,公司认为灭绝动物复活和物种保护代表着10万亿美元机会,并将自身描述为“机会主义且资本主义”,同时坚持认为,困难问题需要专门团队。Breaking 等分拆公司可以获得 Colossal 的科学团队、资本和公司间协议支持,并将编辑效率等技术收益反向共享至整个生态。
The idea of bringing back the woolly mammoth has been around for a long time. You jump in and take the mantle of CEO. I don't know if you were expecting to do that.
I was going to fund it as a side project at first, but then I thought it was really interesting. Our first biological-products company spun out, which was Breaking, our plastic-degradation company. The same system that can bring you a mammoth can also make microbes that can break the chemical bonds of plastics.
So, Colossal is a parent company that's spinning out a dozen companies, each of which has massive potential. We'll talk about a couple of them here. A couple of them are super top secret, and we can't discuss them, but they're as big or bigger.
I think every company should be an AI company or is an AI company. We feel like the synthetic-biology part of our work is really interesting, so we don't always lead with AI. But without AI, we would not be able to do anything that we're doing.
What Ben is building inside of Colossal is a platform and an engine for creating living products: being able to design using AI and then build living products.
I asked George Church if he had one project—if he could work on one project for the rest of time with unlimited capital—what would it be? He didn't hesitate. It wasn't like, “Let me think about it. Let me get back to you.” He instantly said, “I would work to bring back mammoths. I'd rewild them back into the ecosystems, and I'd build technology that could be applied to saving species and also human healthcare.”
Now, that's a moonshot, ladies and gentlemen. How do you like having Elon as your warm-up act?
Yeah, that's the greatest thing ever.
Yeah, that's pretty awesome. He loves woolly mammoths.
He does. He does, and he wants Jurassic Park. He's not alone. He's not alone. I'm not saying that's for me; I'm just saying that he's not alone.
I understand that. It's the number-one request we get. And then megalodons are number 2, which is also really weird.
Well, megalodons are just cool. I mean, they littered their teeth all over the ocean floor. They're still scary. I said they're scary—Jaws times 100.
We have enough of the ocean without it.
Jaws times 100.
Yeah. As we're going along here, please use your Slido app to add questions. First of all, I've known you now since pretty much the beginning of Colossal.
Yeah, you were like first text.
First side text, yeah. I am such a fan of you as a CEO, first and foremost, and then, second, of the company. The idea of bringing back the woolly mammoth has been around for a long time. It had been played around with in nonprofits and so forth. Let me summarize: This man meets George Church, one of the greatest synthetic biologists, CRISPR gene editors, and entrepreneurs, and a professor at Harvard Medical School, and you ask him, “What's your favorite pet project?”
I asked him if he had one project—if he could work on one project for the rest of time with unlimited capital—what would it be? He didn't hesitate. It wasn't like, “Let me think about it. Let me get back to you.” He instantly said, “I would work to bring back mammoths. I'd rewild them back into the ecosystems, and I'd build technology that could be applied to saving species and also human healthcare.”
So, you jump in and take the mantle of CEO. I don't know if you were expecting to do that.
I was going to fund it as a side project at first, but then I thought it was really interesting.
You build a company that goes from zero to a $10 billion valuation in 4 years. It's massively undervalued. I totally agree with you. I love you. It's you as the CEO who has done this. You built an extraordinary team. Thank you so much, Ben. How big is the team now?
We have 260 scientists—200 here in the U.S. and 60 in Australia—and a significant number of AI programmers.
Yeah, exactly. You've become an AI company.
Yeah. I think every company should be an AI company or is an AI company. We feel like the synthetic-biology part of our work is really interesting, so we don't always lead with AI. But without AI, we would not be able to do anything that we're doing.
I want you to think about this. What Ben is building inside of Colossal is a platform and an engine for creating living products—being able to design using AI and then build living products. Let's talk about the work you're doing in de-extinction.
We thought that if we were going to build this end-to-end pipeline for synthetic biology, we would have to develop technologies across computational biology, cellular engineering, genetic engineering, cloning, somatic cell nuclear transfer, and eventually artificial wombs. If we were going to do that and build this end-to-end platform, what's the best way to do it?
We thought, well, if you start with de-extinction, we're facing a massive extinction crisis right now. If we did that, we were going to have to solve some of the hardest problems in biology: genotype-to-phenotype relationships, ancestral-state reconstructions, and comparative genomics.
There are so many things that we have to solve. That allows us to build a systems model that could be applied to all types of solutions for biological products. Our first biological-products company spun out, which was Breaking, our plastic-degradation company. The same system that can bring you a mammoth can also make microbes that can break the chemical bonds of plastics.
So, Colossal is a parent company that's spinning out a dozen companies, each of which has massive potential. We'll talk about a couple of them here. A couple of them are super top secret, and we can't discuss them, but they're as big or bigger.
Breaking is one. You guys all know the microplastic issue, right? We have about 5 grams of plastic in our brains, the size of a plastic teaspoon or a credit card. Most of that—90%—is absorbed through your gut. Some of it comes through your skin and such. What Breaking has done is—what?
We originally thought that they had discovered an enzyme from a microbe. But after further analysis, we took this discovery at the Wyss Institute, put it in Colossal, and started to really understand it. It's actually a consortium of microbes working together, which was even better for us because we were able to essentially understand the enzymes that were being made.
We're also understanding the ability to edit each one of the microbes to make different variants of the enzymes to hit different types of plastics. The plastic crisis that we're in is terrible—not only for human healthcare, but for the oceans and many parts of the environment. It's now affecting all of these areas.
What's interesting is that most plastic-treatment and degradation companies are just making smaller plastics. They're just making smaller microplastics, and that's not solving the problem in any capacity. If we just made a company that made smaller plastics, we didn't think that was the right thing. If we just found or designed a company where the chemical process to pretreat the plastic was worse than the plastic, that was also a bad thing.
What's interesting about this discovery is that it actually breaks the chemical bonds of the plastic. We were able to use directed evolution and supercharge it using our pipeline and some of our editing tools, so that not only does it have a broader range of plastics it can break down, but it also breaks them down at a much faster rate per surface area. We're starting to look at the human body.
I find this fascinating. Imagine a supplement you could take that actually breaks down the bonds of the microplastics in your gut before they get absorbed.
Yeah, because the plastic problem is a global problem. It's not just a problem in the environment; it's in our food supply and our reproductive tissues. In some cases, it crosses the blood-brain barrier. It is a pretty big existential problem that we have to solve.
You're not going to have one solution to rule them all. You've got to have a myriad of different solutions. That's really the goal of Breaking: How do we break down and get rid of plastics in the world?
How many species are you working on bringing back?
Publicly, we've announced the woolly mammoth, the Tasmanian tiger, the dodo, and the moa. We've also created the dire wolves. We'll have more dire wolves coming, which we haven't announced.
By the way, let's get the images in the back over here. Here's the woolly mammoth mice. How cute they are.
Yeah, they are objectively the cutest mice.
And the woolly mammoth. Yep. Those are the good ones. And the dire wolf.
Yeah. That's Romulus in the front and Remus in the back. And that's George R.R. Martin, which is great.
That was actually one of the fun things. There's a lot of cool stuff that we get to work on. One of the cool things is that I think kids of all ages, whether you're 3 or older, can appreciate it. We did a Zoom with George R.R. Martin, and we got introduced to him. Obviously, if you don't know George R.R. Martin, he wrote A Song of Ice and Fire, which became Game of Thrones and popularized dire wolves.
Most people thought dire wolves were just mythical creatures, including some members of the Game of Thrones cast, whom I won't call out. But they did. What's interesting, though, is that when we got introduced to George and put him on Zoom, I just said, “Let me show you something.” I showed it to him, and he just teared up. He said, “This is like—” He knew exactly what it was, right? He knew it wasn't a mythical creature.
It was a pretty cool thing to show that we could take a 73,000-year-old skull and make puppies. We did it in 18 months, which is pretty remarkable.
It's extraordinary. I didn't think of the de-extinction business as a massive revenue opportunity when I began.
What’s the business case in this? And how big is it? I mean, EY did an estimate of the size of the market for you. Can you say?
They said that through educational content, changing STEM-related content in education, and looking at the ancillary effects, there’s a significant opportunity. These would be net-new dollars. They wouldn’t be taking away from anything. About 12.5% of global consumers buy something related to an extinct species every year. That turns out to be about $1.7 trillion, which is really interesting.
Part of our model and thought process around the de-extinction work is not only to subsidize the platform, but also to help countries do it. We’re helping them preserve their species, which is actually quite a lucrative business model, as well as helping from an educational perspective. So far, the feedback has been phenomenal.
So, just to land that plane, you came back a month ago from Dubai and announced a few major deals there. Can you say what those were?
Yes, we announced the world’s first biovault. There isn’t an equivalent of a biovault for animals like there is for plants. You’ve got a lot of fragmentation, with incredible people, nonprofits, zoos, and others working on biobanking—meaning they’re saving individual pieces of cells and whatnot.
When I naively started this business, I came from software, so I thought, “We’ll just plug into the GCP of species,” which doesn’t exist. We had to build reference genomes for every single species that we work on, and then we said this should be more of a global project. Individual countries should have stakeholdership in it.
So, we partnered with the UAE as our first partner. There’s incredibly diverse fauna in the region, much of which is going extinct, so we need to protect it. We also need to sequence it, build digital backups, and ensure that the data is shared with the global scientific community. That should be subsidized by governments, right?
I think we did a good job over about a year educating them on the importance of biodiversity: why you need to protect it, why it’s so important for national pride and technology, and the impacts of the data from these animals. You should do it because you like ecosystems. If you don’t like ecosystems, you should do it because you like animals. If you don’t like animals, you should do it because the applications could be helpful to humans. If you don’t like humans, then you’re probably not the right fit for us to talk to.
Fundamentally, we got them to agree to put hundreds of millions of dollars into the world’s first biovaults. Instead of doing it in some secret back room, cave, or underground facility, there can still be redundancy models around that, but it can also be done in a high-traffic area. If you’re going to spend X dollars, spend X plus Y and wrap educational content around it. Make it available for kids and whatnot, which they did and agreed to, which is great.
From that, we’re building a living lab. It’s a 9-figure initiative for us and a 9-figure initiative for the country. It also builds capabilities in-country for countries to protect their biodiversity in a completely new way while sharing the data globally.
So, the way I think about this is that countries are your customers for saving their endangered species.
Mm-hmm.
And eventually, it’ll be productionized—like, once we are successful with artificial wombs. The other thing you’re doing besides de-extinction is giving birth, excuse the pun, to an artificial womb company, so that these mammals and birds can actually give birth ex utero. Imagine a future in which—and speak about it—you have 3 of these projects going on.
Yeah, so we have 3. They don’t work yet. We have 3 mini-moonshots that are big moonshots, right, of artificial wombs for different animal clades.
Our vision is that, using biobanking, synthetic biology, automation, robotic process automation, assistance from AI and computer vision, and artificial wombs, we could productionize species development. When you have small populations and a genetic bottleneck around a certain species, or you have long gestations, like with the northern white rhino, this could be incredibly useful.
Everyone knows about the northern white rhino, right? At least, a lot of people know about it. There are 2 females left. They’re functionally extinct, and there’s low diversity in them. There’s a bottleneck because they’re related, and their 18 embryos are related.
But if you can engineer in genetic diversity, both synthetically and from lost specimens, and then productionize it through artificial wombs, the $25 million that people are spending a year keeping 2 animals alive could be used in part to productionize it. The rest could go to water, education, and other things for the country.
I really do think that productionizing endangered species, and also helping species adapt at the same curve at which we are changing environments, is going to be needed in the future. Evolution is not fast unless it’s directed.
You also purchased the world’s top 2 cloning companies. I love that. You forget that—you just happened to buy that.
Most people think of cloning and they’re like, “I think I’ve read something about a celebrity cloning their dog,” right? We did clone Tom Brady’s dog, so I think we’re part of that. Tom Brady is an investor, along with—
We do kind of push that narrative to people because it’s true, so I guess we’re part of the problem when people think about it. But what’s interesting is that only about 18 species have ever been cloned, and 15 of those have been cloned by ViaGen, the main company that we bought. We bought another one as well.
Most cloning efficiency is only about 2%, and ViaGen’s was at 78% pretty consistently, which is amazing. The only endangered species that have ever been cloned on the planet were cloned by ViaGen. Things like the black-footed ferret, which are going extinct, had old cells that ViaGen was able to reanimate and then clone.
People still love their dogs. There’s nothing negative about dog cloning. I get asked if I would clone my dogs. They’re mutts, so I’d probably save more, but maybe I’d clone them because I love them.
We’re not taking away the cloning business for consumers. People love that business, and it’s a profitable business. We’re still supporting that business. Separately, we’re now taking those technologies into countries and helping not just productionize cloning of critically endangered species with artificial wombs, but productionize cloning itself. We have some big announcements to share with the local government on that.
Okay. I want you to think about the pipeline—the platform that Colossal is able to use AI and synthetic biology to say, “We want this phenotype, these genes, these gene copies.” I was in a conversation with one of your scientists who said, “Yes, we’re going to a tusk conference,” right? I was like, “What?”
It’s about being able to understand, “Okay, we want the snout to be longer, we want the teeth to be longer,” and being able to use AI to change which genes and which enhancer sequences, and to design the living animal that you want. Which is why I said, when someone asked you, “Could you create Pikachu?” you said, “Yeah, we could probably create Pikachu.”
I did get asked that. I got asked that as the first question at South by Southwest a few years ago, and then the rest of the entire panel was about Pokémon. I was really hopeful to talk about our vaccine development for elephants and others, but it was mostly about Pokémon.
Oh my God.
Yeah. But what I find fascinating is that if you can engineer life that way, the companies being built and spun out include a company that can create disease-resistant plants or drought-resistant plants.
Disease-resistant animals.
Or we’re spending a lot of time on it because leading extinction drivers are not just human-caused, but some of them are supercharged by humans—for example, diseases that exist in nature.
A project that I’m very passionate about and that we’re working on is chytrid. Most people have never heard of chytrid. It’s the leading extinction driver on the planet right now in frogs and amphibians. They’re not fluffy, so they don’t get as much attention, but it’s terrible for ecosystems, and it’s something that we can solve with genetic engineering, right?
For us, we can solve the current problem, but we can also create chytrid-resistant frogs, salamanders, and other amphibians, which have huge applications.
Same thing. We're not currently working on corals. After dinosaurs, it's like dinosaurs, corals, and then, I guess, Pokémon. Dinosaurs, corals, dragons, Pokémon. Everyone's really excited about dragons.
We aren't working on dragons, and we're not working on Pokémon or corals yet. We get a lot of requests. But the coral side is really fascinating, and it applies directly to this idea of animals and plants.
We have an entire group now that's focusing on how to apply some of the things we've learned from livestock to critically endangered species. What are the biggest issues? What are the commonalities around these vaccines? What are the commonalities around what can be developed to confer resistance?
Part of it's also amazing because most people think about Colossal and only think about the mammoth and de-extinction. They don't think about the platform, like you've talked about, which I'm really appreciative that someone's talking about—the larger synthetic platform and biosystem that we're building.
People also don't really think about what the ripple effects on society are. We don't want to live in a non-biodiverse ecosystem or environment. We don't want to live in a world where we are changing it faster than nature can catch up.
I think that synthetic biology, especially paired with AI, will be—and I'm sure others in other industries will disagree with this—the most transformative technology humanity has ever had.
Yeah, you think of AI as a multitrillion-dollar, $100 trillion market.
That's why I think we're massively undervalued.
Yeah, synthetic biology enabled and powered by AI is as big and diverse a market. How big is the market for engineering disease-resistant plants, drought-resistant plants, and animals?
I mean, it's hundreds of billions today, and it's just not well tracked, right? If you look at everything that can be applied and what the current rate is, you have a terrible swine flu or bird flu or whatnot that wipes out a population. You've got so many precautions that also go into these, right?
When we brought back the dire wolves, we got some feedback that was like, "Oh, people don't like wolves because they're going to go kill the cattle." I was like, "The way we raise cattle, the wolves aren't going near it. It's gross." And it just is. It just factually is. It's gross.
What's interesting, though, is that I think we do that because of how we've had inbreeding and hybridization and all this over time. I think that if we're smarter about this, we also have the opportunity to educate governments on things like GMOs.
For a while, there was this anti-GMO, or genetically modified organism, movement, right? People thought, "Oh, it's going to change your genome, and if you eat GMO corn, you're going to..." I don't know what they thought. I had this conversation with Rob on Zoom earlier today that GMOs have saved so many lives. They've taken no lives.
But it's an educational moment. There was a season when seat belts were scary for people, right? There was literally a time when cars were like, "No, we can't put seat belts in cars because it's going to make people think cars are bad or that cars are dangerous." Well, cars are dangerous, right? It's an opportunity to educate.
We get that. When we were meeting with the Australian government about reintroducing the Tasmanian tiger, under their law, Tasmanian tigers are technically GMOs. They are genetically modified organisms, even if they're 100% genetically identical.
They're an amalgamation of 53 different Tasmanian tigers over the course of about 300 years. What's interesting about that is that they're still GMOs. For us, we then had to educate the Australian government that you can't just have an anti-GMO narrative as it relates to the Tasmanian tiger, because then you can't rewild this incredible species back into your country if you see it as what you were afraid of in the '80s.
There's another, dare I say, multitrillion-dollar market you're working on: gene drives.
Oh, yeah. Once again, gene drives are a 40% technology problem and a 60% marketing problem.
Yeah. Can you describe what it is, who the customer is, and how big it is?
The invasive species problem is a global problem. It's about $5.4 trillion as currently measured. I think it's much larger than that because I don't think it's easy to truly quantify.
As the world gets smaller from a commerce perspective, invasive species are just more prevalent, right? That's everything from what we're seeing in Australia with the cane toad and cats, even carp in Australia. Invasive carp—and that sounds weird. I don't know who put them there, but they shouldn't be there.
People talk about mosquitoes, but what we're seeing right now in the U.S., and what is becoming a big problem in the U.S.—Texas has just declared it a national emergency—is the screwworm. It's coming up through Honduras and Mexico, and it's now in southern Texas. It's going to decimate our cattle and bison industry.
How do you combat that? You have a couple of choices. You can create vaccines and try to do different things to the animals themselves, but then that goes directly into the USDA, and you've got to work through that. There's still some anti-GMO movement from an education perspective.
Separately, there's the idea that you could create genetically modified screwworms and release them so that, as the next generations are produced, they're all male. Over time, no matter how much they love each other, they're not going to make more. They don't have the same technologies that humanity has, like opposable thumbs, so they die out.
People are killing animals because they're invasive species. In New Zealand, Australia, and parts of Africa, they're killing cats and possums because they're decimating their local populations of small mammals or marsupials in Australia, or birds in New Zealand.
That's an animal welfare nightmare. That's a social nightmare. Who wants to be in that position? People care more about cats than screwworms.
If you engineer the right gene drives into them and create the right biocontrol around them, you can have animals, including insects, live out their normal lives. Then, over time, you have a humane decrease in that population.
People released gene drives in Africa around mosquitoes, and everyone freaked out. Then they stopped it because they thought, "Oh no, it's bad." Mosquitoes are a part of the food web. I don't think it was necessarily a bad idea to stop it because they were part of the food web.
But we know invasive species are not a part of the food web, because of the word "invasive." It's a huge problem. We're working with our government and with international governments on it.
That's the magic of AI combined with synthetic biology. Two years ago, if you had asked, "Should you be working on biocontrol, biocontainment, and gene drives?" I would have said that I didn't really get into it because I would have thought it didn't really work when it was dispersed around mosquitoes.
Now it's a $5 trillion problem, right? We have an interesting model for it and some proprietary technologies that make it safer than what has ever been dispersed in the wild. We also have the ability to roll it back, which is helpful.
How big is that marketplace? How big is the spend on going after invasive species?
The U.S. is over $500 billion a year in economic impact, just domestically. I don't know off the top of my head what the spend against it is, because the way that it's mostly combated is with everything from poisons—literally poisons. They literally poison the environment as a way to get rid of the invasive species.
It's like archaic ways of treating cancer versus what we know is here and what's coming. It's the same thing people are doing with the environment. For specifically larger animals, they're killing them, poisoning them, and trapping them. It's pretty inhumane.
I just want you to understand how huge this opportunity is. There are dozens of species to be addressed.
Not enough people are focusing on it. The good news is that people are really focusing on compute power, AI, anthropomorphic robots, and other areas, which is great.
Still, if you ask 90% of people who are fluent in synthetic biology and think about genome engineering, I'd say 99% of them focus only on human health care, which is great. But the same technologies applied to other use cases, I think, are even larger economically and also have a bigger opportunity to help us.
You're focused on creating healthier embryos, reinventing IVF, and advanced gene-editing technologies.
These are all sort of spin-outs that are coming out of this engine that you've created.
Yeah. Our artificial wombs don't work yet—full disclosure. We have 3 projects around that. But what we found is that, as you break some of these problems down from a first-principles perspective and look at how you would rethink them and where you would start, what's interesting is that I've got kids now, and they're great.
We went through the IVF process, and it's a little weird and crazy. It's archaic and emotional. This thing that's so precious gets evaluated using an archaic grading scale—a morphological grading scale—and that's how we're choosing these things. It's crazy, right? I think it's crazy. I think it's very archaic versus where technology currently is.
For us to be successful, even long term, with our mammalian-based artificial wombs, there are about 9 different placental types. There are 4 core, but 9 different core placental types. We have to innovate in a couple of different categories, and one of those is just keeping embryos healthier longer.
If you look at how current modern-day IVF clinics work, they've been doing it the same way for a long time. What's interesting is that, if you look at the data, it's based on this morphological grade. What we found is that sometimes embryos that are day 2, day 3, or day 5 in non-model species—and in some model species, like mice—don't look like they would be the winner of the race morphologically at the stage when most humans make their decision.
But if you go a little bit longer, they actually are the healthiest embryo, which is kind of crazy, right? We as humans are making this decision on probably one of the most important things in our lives, if you go through IVF, with this archaic old system based on one moment in time and, to say the least, bad imaging.
That's what we do. But what we found is that things will speed up and slow down at these different stages. Even for us to be successful with an artificial womb, we had to build a hydrogel and microfluidic device that actually makes the embryos healthier.
We've been able to take embryos in non-model species much further than anyone else has in the world, both in mice and in non-model species. It's a lot easier to do it in humans. We don't do it in humans, but that same technology could be applied to human embryos.
We have a slightly different grading scale that's proving to be way more efficient and, more importantly, way more accurate in both model and non-model species. That little innovation alone could be pretty transformative to IVF.
You know, Ben, I want to take us to close here, but give me a sense of how fast this field is moving. What transformations have you experienced over the last year or 2? As far as I know, there's no other company out there that's even close to what you've built in terms of production pipeline.
Yes. Obviously, I'm biased—full disclosure. But I will say objectively, 2 or 3 years ago, we were doing victory laps when we made a couple of edits. I think that's where most people are. We were getting about 40% efficiency, and we thought, “That's pretty good. Most people are doing 15%. We're really smart.”
Now we're doing hundreds of edits at 90% efficiency. I think in the coming years, that's going to be thousands of edits. Those are not linear repeats, meaning they're all over the genome. They're completely different, and they're very precise—to the point that I would feel comfortable that the technology could be applied to human healthcare.
We're not going to do it. We'd spin it out or license it, because we are pretty myopically focused on biodiversity and de-extinction at the core. But no one's near that. No one's even near that.
Even 2 years ago, we thought we were by far the best based on every single standard, which was interesting. I will say that what we're finding from DNA synthesis is that, at least from what we've seen—unless they're secret, we haven't seen anything else based on the research and what we publish—we've surpassed the largest delivery by 5× already.
I think we'll be at 20× before the end of this year. The DNA synthesis, large-scale delivery, and clustering models that we have are all superior. At the same time, I think part of the reason for that is because we've taken a product-and-systems-model approach to synthetic biology, leveraging AI.
Most people are trying to solve one-off point solutions for human healthcare, so they have different goals. I can understand why they have different ambition levels. But for us to understand genotype-to-phenotype expression and be able to do it all over the genome, it's just a different set of challenges.
I do think in the coming years that, hopefully, the models we're applying and the way we're thinking about it will apply more broadly to synthetic biology.
You're taking these capabilities and spinning out companies.
We want to stay very focused. We're opportunistic and capitalist, but at the same time, we think some of these problems are very hard, and we want dedicated teams on them.
De-extinction and species preservation—we think it's a $10 trillion opportunity, but we also think it's one of the most important things to focus on. We think we're solving the hardest things in biology. But if we say, “We got a great discovery on plastics, and we can spend some resources on it,” then we invent that here and spin it out.
We put incredible women and men to work on it, and then we bring in the right capital and attention. It's part of the ecosystem. We build intercompany agreements where we share the editing efficiencies and whatnot that we develop, so it can help them.
It's a really interesting ecosystem in terms of how we approach this. Fundamentally, I don't ever want to spread ourselves too thin. I want to focus on the platform, focus on biodiversity and de-extinction, and then bring in women and men who can go run those companies.
They're typically seeded by us with the scientific team internally that built the technology.