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20VC · · 55 分钟

Sridhar Ramaswamy,Snowflake CEO:DeepSeek 并非 OpenAI 的威胁,OpenAI 胜过 Anthropic|E1258

Harry StebbingsSridhar Ramaswamy

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TL;DR
  • 最容易暴露的 AI 初创公司,是那些直接建立在基础模型提供商之上的公司,而后者的应用边界仍在不断外移。 Sridhar Ramaswamy 称,建立在 OpenAI 之上“令人恐惧”:OpenAI、Anthropic、Microsoft 或 Google 都可能进入任何有前景的编程、法律或工作流品类。真正的防御力来自既有客户关系、明确交付的价值,以及足够快地拥抱 AI,让颠覆者无法取代现有企业。

  • DeepSeek 可能戳破模型稀缺性的说法,但未必会取代 ChatGPT 的消费者分发。 Harry Stebbings 反驳称,DeepSeek 很快登上榜单第 1,且完全免费。Sridhar 回应:“它是产品,不是模型”:ChatGPT 集成了图像生成、文件上传和代码执行。Harry 还提出,OpenAI 完全可以托管 DeepSeek,为 ChatGPT 提供部分能力。

  • OpenAI 的护城河正在接近消费者平台的规模,而不是永久的模型领先。 据一些估算,ChatGPT 拥有约 5亿忠实用户,近几年几乎没有真正花钱做广告;Sridhar 将其触达范围与 Meta 和 Google 相提并论。OpenAI 未必永远能做出最好或最便宜的基础模型,但在消费者端,他押注专业模型创造的价值最终会流向现有入口。

  • 成熟软件公司只要把嵌入式客户关系与快速自我颠覆结合起来,就能守住阵地。 Snowflake 的判断是,一个从零起步的 AI 原生公司不会比 Snowflake 更好,而 Salesforce 的 Agentforce 展示了同一套打法。但如果缺少这些优势,“全新的价值创造”看起来“非常模糊”。

  • 企业 AI 已经在创造真实效用,只是采用速度应当比无摩擦的曲棍球棒曲线更温和。 Sridhar 提到,他把达沃斯 30场会议的 25页笔记压缩成一行摘要,也可以用自然语言查询结构化数据;建筑保险核保的部分环节,则可能通过结合结构化与非结构化信息实现自动化。他听到的 CEO 诉求是:“帮助我们创造效用,告诉我们什么是可能的。”

  • AI 资本开支军备竞赛最终会以泡沫破裂收场,但残余价值取决于建成了什么。 Harry 指出,Meta 将投资 650亿美元建设数据中心,Stargate 也宣布了 5000亿美元投资。Sridhar 区分了两种结局:一种是类似 1990年代、最终留下电力、建筑和光纤的生产性泡沫;另一种则是 Webvan 式烧钱,或硬件快速折旧,价值“顷刻间化为乌有”。

  • Snowflake 接受公开市场约束,因为问责可以强化创新,也能暴露叙事游戏。 私有公司 Databricks 可以更自由地花钱,其销售人数已经是 Snowflake 的 2倍,但 Sridhar 认为,约束会迫使公司保持清晰:“有富有的叔叔不总是好事。” 公开市场流动性、自由现金流现实,以及必须“展示你的工作”,都胜过转为私有公司的诱惑。

摘要 · 为研究而整理的核心内容

1. AI 奖励可塑性,规模却会惩罚昨日的优势

  • Sridhar 给 21岁年轻人的建议是,找到自己在乎、社会也认可的工作,再把“驱动力和可塑性”结合起来。AI 是真实存在的,因此正确姿态是拥抱变化、投入时间掌握专业能力,并对机会的迁移保持敏捷。

  • 每一种知识型职业都会受到影响,因为 AI 是连接结构化与非结构化知识的“惊人的翻译层”。软件工程可能成为顶尖职业,也可能变成更窄的职业——互联网分发让新闻和音乐行业都收窄了——但只要软件仍在进入新的领域,它彻底消失的可能性就不大。

  • 他的规模化法则相当严苛:团队每扩大1倍,曾让领导者脱颖而出的特质,往往会变成“巨大的抑制因素”。一份原本适合 20名工程师的工作,突然可能需要 100人;领导者未必没有能力,只是业务等不起他们重新塑造自己。

  • 困难的谈话越拖越糟,而不提供反馈其实是在伤害对方。Sridhar 会先以谦逊的方式开场——“这将是一场困难且令人不快的谈话”——然后直接说明期望。他更广泛的领导难题是“在驾驶的同时,仍然做一个好人”;他对育儿的独立公式则是“90%的陪伴,10%的运气”。

2. 模型提供商可以一夜之间重划应用边界

  • 应用投资之所以模糊,是因为基础设施与应用已经“极其模糊”。一旦编程助手或法律文档工作流开始起飞,就没人能保证 OpenAI、Anthropic、Microsoft 或 Google 不会做出同样的产品;这些公司的动机意味着,邻近市场风险绝非假设。

  • 更安全的成熟公司模式,是拥有既存客户关系、明确交付的价值,以及在颠覆者取代自己之前主动采用 AI 的意愿。Snowflake 帮助企业收集和分析数据,Salesforce 则通过 Agentforce 推进自我颠覆。两者都能从既有客户基础出发,而新进入者只能从零开始。

  • Harry 最有力的反驳来自 DeepSeek:它很快登上榜单第 1,而且完全免费,凭什么假设用户会保持忠诚?Sridhar 区分了模型和产品:ChatGPT 增加了图像生成、文件上传、代码执行等一体化能力。Harry 进一步提出,只要能改善体验,OpenAI 完全可以“不惜厚着脸皮”自行托管 DeepSeek。

  • OpenAI 估算达到 5亿的用户规模,才是真正的战略资产。Sridhar 将其归功于产品,也归功于 Sam Altman 的“惊人宣传机器”;他同时承认,DeepSeek 暴露了围绕所谓困难模型问题的一些神秘感与误导。但他仍然认同 Altman 的警告:“作为一家建立在 OpenAI 之上的初创公司,令人恐惧。”

3. Snowflake 的护城河必须同时扛住巨头与 Databricks

  • 当被问及 Nvidia 是否可能向上游进入应用层时,Sridhar 将威胁扩大到所有云巨头——AWS Redshift、Microsoft Fabric、Google BigQuery 和 Oracle。Snowflake 必须担心自己成为“巨头之地的一只小老鼠”;它们只要打个喷嚏,Snowflake 就可能被吹走。

  • 他的反驳是,产品市场契合度是一个“有生命、会呼吸的东西”,不是资本可以凭空召唤出来的。过去约 3年里,打造出领先模型的是 OpenAI 和 Anthropic,而不是 Microsoft、Amazon 或 Google;“钱买不到惊人的基础模型,也买不到 Snowflake。” Databricks 仍是可信的竞争者,因此复制并不能替代持续执行。

  • Sridhar 承认,Snowflake 在机器学习领域曾处于追赶状态,但他将这一领域与 ChatGPT 之后的 AI 区分开来。他称 Snowflake 如今在部分方向已经领先,包括数据转换、非结构化到结构化的信息提取,以及即将推出的智能体框架 Snowflake Intelligence;Amazon、Elevance、Bayer 等知名公司已经在生产环境中使用 Snowflake AI。

  • 私有公司身份让 Databricks 可以“买”业务、忽视自由现金流压力,并维持 Snowflake 2倍的销售人员规模。公开市场约束反而迫使 Snowflake 的 AI 团队以有限投入选择聚焦议程并完成追赶;市场审视可能按季度过度反应,但流动性和客观评分会让自我欺骗更难发生。

4. 企业 AI 已经有效,但采用速度会更温和

  • Sridhar 同时否定 ROI 荒和完美平滑的指数曲线:增长应当更温和,但 AI 已经在创造持久价值。他把达沃斯 30场会议的 25页笔记放进 Claude,得到简洁的一行摘要;内部聊天机器人也能回答原本需要逐层点击仪表盘才能找到的问题。

  • CEO 们并没有普遍持怀疑态度,他们希望供应商“帮助我们创造效用”。更有价值的方案,是在智能体系统中把文档语料库与结构化记录结合起来——例如汇总建筑保险核保所需的全部相关输入,从而实现部分流程自动化。Sridhar 描述这一可能性时,CEO 们的反应是:“我的天,这太棒了。”

  • 成熟公司行动更快,是因为它们记得一次次平台冲击。DEC 消失了,SGI 的办公楼被接管;Facebook 放弃移动网页,转向原生应用;Google 则把移动端变现率从桌面端的 10%提高到 100%。Meta 在增强现实表现不佳后迅速转向 AI,体现的是学到教训后的制度性警惕,而非突然获得了初创公司基因。

5. 资本开支泡沫最终只会留下基础设施或废墟

  • Harry 以 Meta 650亿美元数据中心投资和 Stargate 5000亿美元的宣布,刻画了一场前所未有的军备竞赛。Sridhar 对终局的判断是确定的——“泡沫会破裂,所有泡沫都会如此”——但余波无法预测:电力和建筑投资可能像 1990年代泡沫期间铺设的光纤一样,留下有用基础设施;快速折旧的硬件则可能让资本“顷刻间化为乌有”。

  • 这种不确定性并不会消灭应用机会,因为 OpenAI 不可能处理每一种工作流。Sridhar 以 Harvey 为例,称这是一个他不认为 OpenAI 会颠覆的细分领域;投资者要做的是找出同样有价值、仍然适合被颠覆的细分市场。

  • Snowflake 的增长计划主要由产品驱动。公司正从分析领域的“黄金层”扩展到数据摄取、数据工程、机器学习、AI 访问和 Snowflake Intelligence,扩大可触达市场,而不是通过收购无关业务来换取额外 10个百分点的增长。

  • Sridhar 拒绝把 Snowflake 变成“一家 PE 商店”,但认可有针对性的收购;他说 Snowflake 在 Neeva 上花费了约 1.5亿美元,而这笔投资已经获得远超成本的回报。更大的机会在于客户构建的数据应用:Snowflake 不只是客户的支出项,也会成为合作伙伴收入的一部分——“客户赚钱时,我们也赚钱。”

6. 消费者 AI 由分发决定,企业市场则保持碎片化

  • Google 的搜索霸主地位并非“无瑕疵受孕”。在 Microsoft 还沉睡时,Google 通过 Yahoo、AOL、Firefox 和 PC 制造商争取默认入口;这个流量引力中心随后提供了足够的流量和议价能力,击败专业化搜索产品。

  • Live.com 曾经拥有更好的图片搜索,但 Google 的 Universal Search 直接把图片放到主搜索结果页。同一个中心入口又吸收了购物、视频和地图业务,这为一体化 AI 产品如何捕获底层专业模型创造的价值,提供了重要先例。

  • Sridhar 愿意押注,消费者端的专业化能力最终会流向 ChatGPT;在他看来,ChatGPT 正在成为入口,尽管 Harry 对此持怀疑态度。企业市场在约 50年的软件碎片化之后,没有一个等价的统一入口,因此他预计会存在多个专业模型和应用——但仍担心最终可能出现单一网关。

  • 先发优势“100%重要”:据报道,Google 为获得关键分发入口,每年向 AOL 支付超过 1亿美元,甚至高于这笔交易本身带来的收入。Sridhar 从 Larry Page 和 Sergey Brin 身上学到的持久经验,是运营上的不懈推进:每一次争论都令人筋疲力尽,但他们通过 Google Books、YouTube 和荷兰式拍卖 IPO 把第一性原理贯彻到底,一再创造出非常规的商业优势。

Sridhar Ramaswamy

I think it is terrifying to be a startup building on top of OpenAI. The line between an infrastructure provider and an application provider today is super blurry. There’s basically no guarantee that OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, or Google aren’t going to go and create.

You’re not going to switch from ChatGPT to DeepSeek? It’s a product; it’s not a model. There’s a big difference, Harry. There’s a reason Anthropic hasn’t done as well, because it operates at the model level. It’s all of the additional things that go into ChatGPT that I think have staying power.

Harry Stebbings

Sridhar, I’m so excited to have you on the show. It has been so long since we saw each other last, so thank you for doing this with me.

Sridhar Ramaswamy

Thank you, Harry. Amazing to be here. 20VC is absolutely one of the iconic names in investing. I’m excited for this.

Harry Stebbings

You’re very kind. Listen, I spoke to Margot before the show, and she said you’d be really missing a trick with Sridhar if you went straight to AI and straight to CEO-ship. She said, “You’ve got to get a little bit more personal.” So I said, “Okay, Margot, tell me more.”

Start with this: as your younger self, in college or in your first job, did you ever imagine yourself becoming a CEO, and why?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

No, I did not. Certainly not when I was getting my bachelor’s degree, and certainly not when I was getting a PhD. In fact, when I was getting a PhD, becoming a professor sounded more like the ideal. At some point, I wasn’t that excited about doing research, and that’s when I switched over to software engineering.

Even in software engineering, it’s very much about aspiring big but taking little steps. When you’re at the right place at the right time, great things happen.

Harry Stebbings

I totally agree with you in terms of being in the right place at the right time. Says the man with a fund and a podcast.

My question to you is this: when you look at graduates coming out today and entering the workforce—I know you also have two boys, who Margot told me about—what would you advise 20- and 21-year-olds coming into today’s workforce who are scared, in some ways, looking at AI and asking, “Where are there going to be long-term jobs, and where are there not going to be?” What would you advise a 20- or 21-year-old entering the workforce?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

My kids and I used to talk a lot about what they should work on. They’re 25 and 23. Roughly, my advice to them was: find something that you’re passionate about and that society values.

I was like, “Don’t pick these noble professions that we all pretend we value, but in fact we don’t.” Being a teacher is really hard—God bless them. Hopefully, by the time you have graduated, you have skills and passion in something that society values.

Obviously, everything is undergoing a lot of change. The best advice I have for navigating the environment is to be open and nimble about where change is coming. Embrace change. Don’t be one of those people who says, “The internet is never going to be a thing.” AI is a thing.

See what is possible, and put in the time and dedication to excel at the job while thinking about where things can go. That core formula of drive and malleability is the advice that I give to a 21-year-old. Honestly, it’s also what I look for when I’m trying to hire a senior executive into Snowflake.

Harry Stebbings

I see so much debate around software engineering and engineering. People say it’s the first place where AI is really going to dominate, and you’re starting to see that with Copilot and a lot of the tools around it.

Do you disagree and say there’s immense value in software engineering moving forward—that students should keep going—or do you think it will actually be the first profession to be impacted?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

I think all kinds of knowledge professions are going to be impacted in a very big way. My simplistic but fairly accurate description of what AI can do is that it’s an incredible translation layer between all kinds of knowledge—unstructured and structured. It can make sense of it all in a way that only humans were able to before.

I would say any knowledge worker, absolutely including software engineers, should embrace this technology and see where it’s going to go. I think it’s too early to jump to conclusions about whether software engineering becomes an apex profession or a thinned-out profession.

What I mean by that is, after the internet, there wasn’t a particularly good reason for every city in every country to have foreign bureaus sitting in Washington. Why? The big outlets, like The New York Times, could reach every part of the world. You could get pretty good coverage. Maybe you didn’t like it, or maybe you wanted another viewpoint, but journalism went from being a broad-based profession to one that was narrower.

The same thing happened to music, and the same thing happened in other fields. It’s a little hard to predict how much impact AI is going to have. But to the extent that software will continue to be a huge part of everything we do, I still see tons of opportunity in applying software and AI to more and more areas.

I’m not down on software engineering as a profession any more than I’m down on analysts or CEOs as professions. I joke to people that I’m an email machine. That’s all I do. I talk, write, and read.

Embracing the future, seeing where it can go, and being nimble is what it’s going to take. I don’t think software engineering is going to disappear anytime soon.

Harry Stebbings

I love the simplicity: “I’m an email machine.”

People always think you just get better at CEO-ship and become more phenomenal as the years go by, and you present this wonderful façade. What have you gotten worse at over time?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

That’s a good question. Physical skills are harder as you grow older. That’s just how it goes. Once upon a time, I wouldn’t think twice about a 20-mile run with no preparation. It was like, “Yeah, okay, let’s go run for a bit.” That’s not going to happen today.

The mental side is very much under your control, and that’s the part I’m happy about. I’m relentless about pushing myself to learn, measure, and adapt. When it comes to physical things, it is harder.

The other thing we have to be realistic about as we grow older is that our ability to sink a huge amount of time into a brand-new area is limited. You have to have humility about things like that.

I joke that one of my sons is 23 years old, and I’m like, “You’re not really going to be a concert pianist in your life. That part is done.” We have to accept what is changeable and what is not changeable.

But especially when it comes to mental things, for the agile, driven person, the world is your oyster. You now have all of these language models that can create custom programs for you and do amazing things that you would never have been able to do before. In that sense, I think there is even more opportunity than before when it comes to the mental side.

Harry Stebbings

You mentioned 20-mile runs and relentlessness. By the way, I think you’re still an Adonis, so I don’t know what you’re talking about.

I spoke to many of your friends, and they said you operate with an incredible intensity. I thought, “Gosh, it’s another praise of Sridhar.” But they said, “No, because people around him struggle to keep up.”

I’m by no means running 20 miles and as athletic as you, but I am intense, and people struggle to keep up with me, too. I struggle with that. What advice would you have for me and other high-intensity CEOs who need to bring people with them, but find it difficult?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

I think it’s important to make sure that people understand the big picture, the fleeting nature of opportunity, and how quickly it can disappear.

I run a company that is making, call it, $3.5 billion roughly a year. If you think about things like world GDP, adjusted for inflation, it grows by 1%, 2%, or 3% a year. It takes 100 years for something growing at 1% to double. We’re talking about doing that in 2 years, give or take.

The first thing I tell people is that we are extraordinarily lucky to be in environments that can generate this much value. Sustaining and accelerating that takes extraordinary people. It’s not for everyone, and I’m okay with that.

But let me tell you what it takes to succeed at Snowflake: the expectations are high because the returns are high, the opportunity is big, and the opportunity cost is even bigger.

It’s a question of what people want to be part of. At Snowflake, we absolutely want to be the data engine for every single enterprise on the planet. I think that’s a pretty amazing mission, plus we get to build an iconic company along the way. It takes special people. I don’t have to make excuses for that.

Harry Stebbings

When you hire someone thinking that they’re able to scale through different stages of company development, and you’re wrong, why have you been wrong?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

These things are unpredictable. Life is very long, and people also change over time. There’s a certain something that, take your pick, £10 million or £50 million is going to do to people.

Part of the reason I joined Google in 2003, a year before the IPO, and honestly part of the reason I succeeded, is that a bunch of people who joined in 2001 and 2002 suddenly became worth $500 million. They said, “Life’s great. I’m done.” Honestly, I don’t blame them, but that’s part of what it takes to have a driven team.

Not everybody can scale. I’ve had lots of conversations with people about what it takes to double your team. Roughly, my advice has always been: every time your team doubles in size, all of the things that made you wonderful for your previous team are typically massive inhibitors to succeeding in your new job.

I’m not sure people really internalize that. It requires a lot of reinvention in terms of what people have to be and how they have to operate. There are quite a few people who can make these transitions, adapt, and thrive.

I almost see it as my duty, job, and responsibility to give people those kinds of opportunities. But I’m also relentless and cutthroat in that I give people time and opportunity. One of the things I’ve learned as an adult is not to shy away from unpleasant conversations.

I talk to people about what is working and what is not working. I give them time, and if it doesn’t work, it doesn’t work. I have demoted people, given them half their job, and said, “This is better for you.”

Harry Stebbings

That’s one of the hardest things you can do in your life. Do you have any tips on how to force the hard conversations?

Whenever I have an email that I don’t want to send or don’t know how to send, I force myself to go into the lift in my apartment building. Whatever I’ve written by the time I get to the other end gets sent. That’s the deal I make with myself.

Do you have any tips on how to force those conversations?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

The first thing to remember is that conflicts typically do not resolve themselves. You have to internalize that postponing things is going to make them worse. The more you postpone, the worse it gets. Just telling yourself that is important.

The other thing is that avoiding the hard conversation is typically doing the other person a disservice, because you’re not helping them. Not all hard conversations need to be, “You’re out of your job.” They can be, “Here are the areas where I think things need to go better. Let me tell you why, and let me tell you what my expectations are.”

It’s also important to be respectful. I find it important to be painfully humble in these conversations. I’ll typically go into the conversation and say, “This is going to be a difficult and unpleasant conversation for us. I’m just coming out and telling you that. I’m not pretending that I know all the answers. This is super awkward for me to have this conversation, but I feel it’s important that we have it.”

To me, that combination of respect, straightforwardness, and humility goes a long way.

Harry Stebbings

One final question before we move on. You mentioned the demotion element, which is a really hard thing to do. If you’re willing to demote someone, does that not just mean you should fire them?

Someone once said to me, “If you’re willing to take less, you should never do the deal.” I apply that here: if you’re willing to have them but give them less, should they not just go?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

There are situations where that makes sense, but remember that all of these are fast-moving environments.

An area that you thought could be handled fine with 20 engineers can suddenly blow up, and all of a sudden it needs 100 people. The person who did the job well with 20 people is now holding a portfolio of 40 people that needs to grow to 100, and they’re struggling.

The business can’t wait. It’s not that they’re bad people or incapable of doing a good job. To me, finding the right context and framework to help somebody succeed at a given point in time is okay. It’s okay to have those sorts of conversations.

I had one director who accidentally became responsible for two different areas. Part of what I told him was, “I’m taking one of these areas away. By the way, the thing that you have in your hands is going to grow to be a $40 billion business.” I think I promised him that in 5 or 6 years.

This was Google Shopping. I said, “This is what we’re looking at. It’s a big opportunity, but you get to focus on a single job.” That person took the job, eventually became a VP, and was enormously successful.

It’s a lot of selling, because whenever you have a conversation like that, the first reaction people have is, “I’m a failure.” No, you’re not. You’ve been given an impossible job. Let’s shape it to make you succeed.

Again, that is real leadership: going and selling something that people don’t want, painting a vision for the future, and getting them to stay. That’s hard.

Harry Stebbings

Do you think richer leaders make better leaders? Are you more convicted and less worried about the downside? Are you less fearful about what happens if you lose your job or something goes wrong? Do richer leaders make better leaders?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

No. I think it can make them callous, and it can make them too tolerant of massive amounts of risk.

It’s a balance. You always have different constituents, and it’s important to remember that as a leader. It’s not just you. It’s the employees in your company, your shareholders, and your customers.

We went through a pretty difficult time as a company last year, and that’s when it became clearly focused for me that this affects a lot of different people. It isn’t always about swinging for the fences. Sometimes you have to make that dramatic 90-degree left turn to get somewhere.

I don’t think being in a position where you’re personally unaffected by the outcome, from a dollar perspective, is necessarily a positive thing.

Harry Stebbings

I want to move into the world of AI, as I said we would. I want to first get your advice. We walked around Hyde Park together, and I’m looking at this market today as an investor asking where sustainable value is going to be generated.

It seems like models get commoditized faster than I thought. DeepSeek has shown that in the last few weeks. A lot of application-layer material seems pretty light in terms of just building on top of commoditized models.

How do you think about where sustainable value is being created in today’s market?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

I had a conversation with some people from OpenAI and an application company, one of these coding platforms. What I was telling them is that the line between an infrastructure provider and an application provider today is super blurry.

In a weird way, if there is a brand-new application to be created, there’s basically no guarantee that OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, or Google aren’t going to go and create it. All of these companies are motivated. They see a coding assistant taking off and say, “That’s fine, I’ll do a coding assistant.” They see people generating much better legal documents and say, “Maybe we should launch a legal ChatGPT.”

To me, that is part of what makes value creation in today’s environment really tricky to figure out.

I would say that the place where there absolutely is value creation is with companies that have a set of customer relationships, deliver clear value, and are able to embrace AI fast enough that a disruptor is not going to unseat them.

This is why I feel good about Snowflake. We are a data platform. We help people collect data, make sense of data, run analytics on the data, and run predictive workloads such as machine learning on top of the data. AI is a massive accelerant for the data life cycle and for data access.

Will somebody who starts with these foundational new capabilities as their starting point be better than Snowflake? Starting from zero, mind you, the bet is that they won’t be. I see AI clearly creating value. You see Salesforce doing this with some pretty cool work with Agentforce. They’re saying, “We have relationships. We are going to disrupt ourselves. We are going to be out there.”

But in terms of all-new value creation, I’ve got to tell you, it looks very murky in terms of long-term value.

There is value in product. It’s really important to understand that I think OpenAI will be successful not because it will always be the best and cheapest at creating foundation models, but because it has a product experience that, by some accounts, has half a billion loyal users. That is really hard to create. I think value endures on the product side.

Harry Stebbings

Do you really think they’re loyal? DeepSeek got to number 1 in the charts in a day. You’re not going to switch from ChatGPT to DeepSeek? OpenAI isn’t stupid. If it can host DeepSeek to power some part of ChatGPT, it will shamelessly do it, as it should.

Why would you not switch to DeepSeek? It’s free, it’s as good as ChatGPT, and it comes with a bunch of additional features.

Sridhar Ramaswamy

It’s a product. It’s not a model. There’s a big difference, Harry.

There’s a reason why Anthropic hasn’t done as well. It operates at the model level. It’s all of the additional things that go into ChatGPT: the ability to create images, the ability to upload something, and the ability to run a little bit of code. It’s a put-together product that I think has staying power.

Harry Stebbings

I’ve had Sam Altman on the show, and he said, “We will steamroll startups.” He put on a 20VC jumper, which made me very happy. I was thinking about branding, and then the first thing he said was, “We’re going to steamroll startups.”

That’s not great for my venture fund. But my question to you is: if you were Sam Altman today, what would you do? We had the founder of Groq on the show last week, and he said that OpenAI has to open-source.

Sridhar Ramaswamy

Sam is succeeding in having a consumer product that is approaching Meta and Google scale. Some of that is because of the incredible publicity machine that Sam and OpenAI have, but which was the last company you heard about that got to 500 million users without really paying for advertising in recent years?

That’s not a social network. What is happening is truly remarkable.

There has always been a little bit of mystique around OpenAI and its closed-source models. It’s also becoming clear that they are good at misdirection in terms of where they tell people their hard problems are. It’s good that people like DeepSeek went and busted some of those myths.

But I would separate the success of OpenAI the company from what’s going to happen tomorrow. Obviously, there are other things that they want to do, such as betting big on AGI. There’s a new company in the mix.

One point that Sam made to you that I completely agree with is that I think it is terrifying to be a startup building on top of OpenAI.

Harry Stebbings

There are two points where I’d be concerned. Number 1 is when you look at NVIDIA beneath you in the stack. To what extent do you worry about NVIDIA moving into your segment and becoming a competitor?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

I have to have the same worry about the CSPs. I always have to be watchful about things like that.

AWS has Redshift. Microsoft has Fabric. Google has BigQuery. Oracle has its data-warehousing platform. You should always be worried about being a little mouse in the land of giants. If they sneeze, you might get blown off. I get it.

On the other hand, I tell people that it’s OpenAI and Anthropic that have created the best models on the planet for the last 3 years. It’s not Microsoft, Amazon, or Google. Gemini is good, but let’s face it: at best, it’s a fast follower.

The thing that I tell people—and you know this better than anyone else, Harry—is that a startup with product-market fit is a living, breathing thing. It’s magic. It’s not as if you and I know how to create it with a few words and ideas.

Snowflake is a manifestation and realization of that magic. It is hard to create a data product by copying. You have to keep innovating.

Databricks has emerged over the last 5 years as a very credible player in the data space. More kudos to them. But there are things that we at Snowflake are very proud of and that are very different from how Databricks operates. We need to continue to innovate and be up there.

Money doesn’t buy you amazing foundation models. It doesn’t buy you Snowflake.

Harry Stebbings

My question on Nvidia was one side of that. The other side you mentioned was Databricks. I spoke to friends, board members, and investors, and one of them said that Databricks might potentially be ahead in AI workloads, with MosaicML and MLflow, and with direct model hosting.

How do you think about that? Do you think Snowflake is behind in that respect?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

We should separate machine learning from AI. I joke to people that all of the machine-learning people rebranded themselves as classic AI. They were first to market, that was their sweet spot, and they’ve been good at it for a while.

We were very much in catch-up mode. But AI is a much younger field. It didn’t really exist, let’s call it, pre-ChatGPT.

I feel incredibly confident that we are not only cutting-edge but ahead of them on a number of fronts. We have thought methodically but moved very quickly to make AI a reality at Snowflake, in everything from how you do data transformation and data engineering better to how you make sense of unstructured data and reliably get to structured data.

We are putting all of this into an agentic framework called Snowflake Intelligence that is coming out.

When it comes to AI, I feel very good about where Snowflake is. That isn’t an issue. I have work to do in terms of getting the word out and getting more and more customers. We have amazing marquee names—Amazon, Elevance, Bayer, and a ton of others—that are using Snowflake AI in production.

I feel good about where we are, and it’s a fast-moving space. The thing I pride myself on, and the AI team as well—many of whom I’ve worked with for a long time—is that in fast-moving spaces, my attitude is: I can run as fast as anyone else. Bring it.

Harry Stebbings

You kind of remind me of Nik from Revolut. When you’re talking, I’m thinking, “You know what? I don’t want to fight you. You do you. I’m going to support you. I’m a believer. Keep going.”

Which structure do you think aids innovation and aids winning better: being a super-late-stage private company, like Databricks, or being a public company, like Snowflake?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

Innovation is not an option. It’s just something we have to do.

Do I have more constraints than Databricks, being private? Absolutely. It’s very clear that they’re buying a bunch of business that they don’t have to worry about things like free cash flow. They have doubled the number of salespeople that we have.

But as I also tell people, it’s easy to lose a lot of money. It’s very easy to be uncalibrated about spending money. You should be careful what you wish for.

Do we operate under constraints? Absolutely. But that’s what innovation is about: how can you drive in the face of constraints?

DeepSeek is yet another illustration that having rich uncles is not always a good thing.

Harry Stebbings

Where have those constraints helped you, and why have they hurt you?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

With AI, for example, we said we weren’t going to be unreasonable about how large the team was. I didn’t ask for a blank check. We said, “We know what we need to do. We need to focus, have clarity around the things we need to build, and be very good at doing it.”

With a modest investment, we were able to catch up very quickly in AI. I think having those constraints drives clarity. You’re not trying to do everything, and you’re not trying to chase every possible unscalable business.

Constraints can be problematic when there are dramatic market reactions, because people can overinterpret changes that happen quarter to quarter in the numbers. In some ways, the Snowflake stock journey—the ups, the downs, and then the ups—is a reflection of the scrutiny that a public company faces.

In an ideal world, I would be able to tell my team and investors, “We’ve got this covered. Don’t worry about it. Everything will be great.” But you absolutely have to worry about it, because people are making mortgage payments based on what their stock is worth.

You get into externalities that are difficult to manage. It raises the bar on operating responsibly. That’s something we had to learn quickly last year.

Being a public company means you have to worry about dramatic reactions, because they can end up having a bunch of second-order consequences.

Harry Stebbings

If you could, would you rather take the company private and remove those constraints?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

No. I think the visibility is a good thing. You don’t get that anymore when you’re private. It provides liquidity, and being able to grade yourself is an important part of the process.

It’s very easy to fool yourself into thinking things are going to be great when you don’t get any feedback. We’re in the world of almighty dollars. They are well calibrated. Either you make money or you don’t. Either there’s free cash flow or there isn’t.

I think that dose of reality is helpful. Even if you look at the competitor we talked about, for a few months it was all about, “Amazing AI is going through the roof.” I haven’t heard much from them about AI recently. All of a sudden, it’s, “Amazing SQL is going through the roof.” It feels like a bit of three-card monte to me.

Being a public company forces you to be open, show your work, and do that all along the way.

Harry Stebbings

I want to touch on enterprise adoption of AI. I was sitting with a bunch of CEOs at a summit the other day, as painful as those can be, and they said, “We’re still waiting for you people from technology land to deliver much ROI.”

Do you think we’ve seen excitement followed by a plateau, as we did with self-driving, or will we see exponential acceleration of adoption within the enterprise? Will it be a very smooth hockey stick up and to the right?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

I think it’s going to be gentler in terms of growth. On the other hand, I can tell you very confidently that AI is creating value today, and it will continue to create enduring value.

Many things that used to be incredibly hard for you and me to deal with are easier. If a CEO is telling you they’re seeing no value from AI, I would question how much they know about it.

Harry Stebbings

Let’s get into examples. What are the obvious, easy ones?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

I was at Davos and did 30 meetings. I absolutely used things like dictation and transcription tools to write notes for myself. I also handwrote a whole lot of notes.

Someone on my team said, “25 pages? Really? I don’t want to read this. How about you give me a summary?” I just took all of my notes, put them into Claude, and said, “I want a 1-line summary per meeting.” Out came a beautiful, concise summary. It was magical.

Similarly, we have internal chatbots that have access to structured data. They can handle questions that would otherwise require you to click around in dashboards and provide a lot of context. Again, it’s incredible value.

Harry Stebbings

Davos is an interesting collection of the world’s biggest CEOs. Were there any enduring takeaways for you from the sentiment you saw there?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

I took a very utilitarian view of Davos rather than focusing on the bigger picture. It was my first time, and I was terrified by the idea of spending 5 days away from work, especially with the board and earnings coming up. But it was well worth it—an amazing number of meetings with an amazing number of key people from companies.

The message I heard from CEOs was much more, “Help us create utility. Tell us what is possible.”

When I talked to them about what we can do with unstructured data—being able to create a chatbot on a document corpus quickly—or with structured data, they got it. Then I told them, “Now you get to mix and match them and create agentic platforms where you can access a whole lot of related information in one place.” People were excited.

When I talked to them about automating parts of underwriting by bringing together all of the structured and unstructured information needed to underwrite insurance for a building, people said, “Oh my God, that is amazing.”

You’re correct that we need to continue focusing on utility, but I didn’t face a lot of rampant skepticism about AI. I just whipped out my phone and showed them the 5 stupid and fun things I had done with AI the day before.

Harry Stebbings

In terms of the speed of innovation, it feels like we’ve never seen incumbents innovate at the speed they are now. I’m friends with Scott Belsky, the former chief product officer at Adobe, who recently moved on, and everyone has moved so much quicker.

The whole point of TaxJar was that incumbents were super slow. They’re not slow anymore. What’s happened? Have you ever seen incumbents move this fast?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

I think it’s the result of 3 cycles of disruption. All of us remember our history. We all know that no one wants to be the person known for the IBM deal with Microsoft.

People understand how dramatic a shift that was. Companies like DEC disappeared. We took over SGI’s buildings. They were the darlings. The first buildings Google took over in Mountain View were the SGI campus, with that funky purple SGI Plex.

For about 5 years, I used to tell everyone who joined my team, “SGI built these buildings,” and then I would look at them to see if they understood the point. We learned from that.

I would actually say that mobile was a big platform shift in which incumbents did pretty well. Mark Zuckerberg went after the mobile web for Facebook and then said, “Forget it, I’m doing an app.” Google did the same thing: it took search and moved it over.

I led my team for 5 terrifying years as we took mobile monetization from being 10% of desktop to being 100%. I would say that this generation of companies had already become smart about platform disruptions and understood that they were going to be a big deal.

That’s why you see these companies making crazy investments into the future. They see something, and they have the money to do it. This is why Facebook became Meta. Mark doesn’t care that augmented reality fell flat on its face. He says, “Bring it. I’m on to AI now.”

I think that is companies truly learning from the past and innovating hard.

Harry Stebbings

Where does this go? I hope you’re my friend, so please advise me.

I’m seeing Mark invest $65 billion in data centers, and we’re seeing the $500 billion announcement of Stargate. I know there’s equity and debt involved, and it isn’t a straightforward deal, but we’ve never seen money thrown at anything like this.

This is an arms race in AI. Where does it end?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

With a bubble bursting, as all bubbles do.

There was a funny and insightful conversation between Ben Thompson from Stratechery and Nat Friedman where they discussed whether this is a good bubble—the bubble in the 1990s that eventually laid the fiber for the whole world, which Google, Facebook, and you and I took advantage of—or whether it’s the dumber Webvan stuff that just burned money in the early 2000s trying to deliver groceries, and we had to wait 15 years for Instacart to show up.

Let’s face it: you and I don’t know. If the bulk of those investments are going into things like power and buildings, you can say that they’re creating infrastructure for the world and something good will come out of it.

On the other hand, if the investments go into rapidly depreciating hardware, that is value disappearing in a puff. I think it’s early.

But back to your point about what we do: there’s still scope for innovation. An OpenAI product cannot possibly handle every workflow that exists. What you and I need to do is identify the things that are still ripe for disruption and where value is being created.

I think Harvey is a great company. I don’t think it’s going to get disrupted by OpenAI. Finding niches like that and investing in them is our formula for success.

Harry Stebbings

Money doesn’t always buy you everything.

Speaking of money not always buying you everything, the street is saying that the issue with Snowflake is growth. To what extent can you buy growth, and how do you think about an M&A strategy going forward to add the extra 10 points of growth the street wants?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

First of all, $3.5 billion going on $30 billion sounds pretty cool to me. Obviously, we have to sustain it, but it’s not a bad place to start.

What we’ve done, and I said this in our last earnings call, is significantly expand the aperture of what Snowflake is taking on. We played at the gold layer and said, “You do analytics with Snowflake, and, oh, by the way, we do a little bit of machine learning.”

We’ve gone from that to saying we will help with data ingestion, data engineering, analytics, machine learning, and end-user access with AI. The aperture just got a whole lot wider.

We have a team that is not only driving things like getting more of the analytics market, which is our sweet spot, but also disrupting other very large segments of the data space.

Absolutely, we will continue to look at companies. But an inorganic, unrelated acquisition strategy is not something I’m excited about. I think it would be a distraction.

Snowflake is a product-led innovation company. We are not a private-equity shop. There’s nothing wrong with being a private-equity shop; it’s just a different skill set. That’s not us.

A lot of our growth has to be driven by product innovation. Will we do smart acquisitions here and there? Snowflake spent roughly $150 million on Neeva, and I think it has more than paid for itself. Those are the kinds of things we should be doing.

Harry Stebbings

What line of revenue is small or insignificant for Snowflake today that, in 7 to 10 years, will be a dominant line of revenue?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

AI, 100%. I think it’s going to be a big deal. It offers the opportunity to disrupt business intelligence as we know it today, and it could be more direct-to-consumer.

I would actually say that the thing that can turbocharge growth for Snowflake is people building on Snowflake. We have companies like FactSet, JPMorgan, BlackRock, Fiserv, and Zscaler building data applications on top of Snowflake.

We let them do some pretty nifty things when it comes to bringing together their own data and data from their customers to create these data applications. I would say that is small today, but I fully expect it to become a massive overall revenue opportunity for Snowflake.

The really cool thing is that you go from being an expense item to actually being part of the top line of these companies. That creates much better partnership dynamics. I want to be able to say, “We make money when you make money.”

Harry Stebbings

If we expand that to the model landscape, I look at it and say, “I don’t know where this is in 5 to 7 years.”

Do we have a world of many specialized and verticalized models, or a world of fewer, generalized, very large models? I’m intrigued, especially given your unique perspective from your Google experience.

I remember reading that people historically thought search would eventually be verticalized, and they didn’t anticipate these huge, multi-purpose behemoths really owning everything.

Sridhar Ramaswamy

This is a really good question. Unfortunately, my answer is going to be: predict early and predict often.

If we deconstruct Google Search and why it came to dominate, first and foremost, Google made a bunch of deals to become the default search engine with a whole pile of players—Yahoo, AOL, and then soon Firefox and all the PC manufacturers. It was a very deliberate strategy to become the center of search.

Microsoft was asleep at the wheel for a lot of those early years. That’s how Google got started. Organic marketing was part of it, but honestly, it was a small part. It was that gravitational pull that enabled Google to knock out every other vertical.

It will amuse you to know that Live.com, a predecessor to Bing, had better image search. It had the best image search; Google did not.

With something called Universal Search, Google basically said, “Oh, you’re looking for images? We’ll put them right on the main search page. You don’t need to go anywhere.”

That became the vector by which Google conquered pretty much every other vertical, whether shopping, videos, or Maps. Through that central, sticky property, Google conquered the consumer world.

If you look at AI, it isn’t obvious to me, especially in the enterprise, that there is a single entry point. On the consumer side, I know you disagree, but I think ChatGPT is becoming that entry point.

If I were a betting person, on the consumer side, to the extent that there are variations in models and specializations, I think that will accrue to the incumbent. The incumbent is 100% ChatGPT and OpenAI.

I think entry points for other models will be fragmented. At some point, I used to worry about whether there would be a single enterprise entry point that would conquer them all. I still worry about it. I think there is still that opportunity.

But on the enterprise side, I absolutely see there being all kinds of specializations. In the last 50 years, there hasn’t been an equivalent of Google Search in the enterprise.

Harry Stebbings

I also love the historical analysis of Google’s distribution strategy through partnerships. I didn’t know it was to that extent.

All of us think Google was an immaculate conception: one fine day, we all decided we should use Google. Which partnership had the largest impact on Google’s distribution ability?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

Yahoo and AOL early on. Those were the entry points. AOL didn’t know how to do search, and Yahoo didn’t think search was important.

Harry Stebbings

Does being first really matter?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

One hundred percent. If I remember correctly, we paid AOL more money than we made from it. It was like $100-plus million per year.

Harry Stebbings

Why were those the most valuable users?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

You have to talk about both. The Google founders are amazing. They made a bunch of incredibly smart business decisions.

Harry Stebbings

When you go back to those days and reflect on them, is there anything you take from that experience now, as the CEO of an incredible $3.5 billion-revenue public company, and think, “I can take that. I can learn my lesson here”?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

Relentlessness. I still remember that every discussion with Larry and Sergey used to be exhausting. They never ended. They just argued with you about every single topic.

But good things came out of that. You examined every possible angle, and you pushed yourself really hard.

I also joke to people that by the time I became head of ads, working with the legal team was a whole lot easier because they had been battered around by Larry and Sergey pushing the envelope with things like Google Books and YouTube, which were legal nightmares early on.

That is my lifelong takeaway: pressing hard, being first-principles-driven, and remembering the Dutch auction. What other company has done a Dutch auction for an IPO? Google did it.

The amount of energy they brought into every discussion, and the relentlessness of driving toward the truth and the right business outcome, is absolutely something I carry forward to this day.

Harry Stebbings

Listen, I could talk to you all day. I’d love to move into a quick fire. I’ll say a short statement, and you give me your immediate thoughts. Does that sound okay?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

Sounds good.

Harry Stebbings

How do you feel about founder mode? It’s eulogized in the Valley. You’re a CEO, and you’ve also been the founder of Neeva. How do you feel about founder mode?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

I think it’s just a shortcut for describing effective people. Anyone can be that.

Harry Stebbings

You have a 23-year-old and a 25-year-old, and you have a great relationship with them. My brother just had his first baby, so I’m an uncle for the first time. What advice would you give my brother, who has just had his first baby?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

In my humble opinion, parenting is 90% presence and 10% luck.

Harry Stebbings

You’re done. Sounds like you worry about the books that you want to buy, the cool software. I’m like, the best gift that you can give to your child is you yourself just being there.

What do you believe that most people around you disbelieve?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

The possibility of change. People assume that too many things cannot be changed, including things within themselves. We put ourselves in straitjackets in terms of what we can do and what the people around us can do.

Harry Stebbings

I had a great statement: “The heaviest things in life are not iron or gold, but unmade decisions.” What unmade decision do you think about most?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

I followed my instincts generally. It was crazy for me to come to the Valley because I was a successful researcher in New Jersey. It was crazy for me to quit my first company when I was running a team of 120 people and go from that to being a software engineer.

I don’t have many regrets. I have a wonderful family and a spouse who let me make these crazy decisions. We moved house, and she was very against it. It was much closer to our friends.

I just do things, and I fall flat on my face very often. I pick myself up and move on.

Harry Stebbings

You can be CEO of any other company for a day. What would you be CEO of?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

I love my job, but Snowflake.

Harry Stebbings

I’m knocking that question back to you. What’s your favorite brand, and why?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

I have to admire the aura that Benioff brings with Salesforce. It’s not just the brand; it’s the brand in the marketing. I think he’s a remarkable human being.

Harry Stebbings

Do you think brand and marketing are important for Snowflake today?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

Absolutely. Too many of our own customers who love Snowflake think of us as, “It’s a very good warehouse. I like that.”

We absolutely have our work cut out for us.

Harry Stebbings

What’s the hardest thing about being CEO of Snowflake at the end of the day?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

You’re dealing with people. You want to be a good human being, but you also want your team to succeed.

Making sure that you’re driving while still being a good human being is hard. It should be hard. It’s not something you should ever take lightly.

Harry Stebbings

Final one. You’re interviewed by a lot of people. You ask questions all day—to team members, employees, kids, family, and everyone else. What question does no one ask you that you think they should?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

One interesting question could have been, “What are you most proud of?” I don’t think anyone has asked me that.

Harry Stebbings

What are you most proud of?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

Probably being a good dad.

Harry Stebbings

Can I ask how you define being a good dad?

Sridhar Ramaswamy

As I said, my wife and I focused very much on presence and love. We were there when they needed us most, and we set good examples for them.

Both of us worked. My wife has never missed a day of work in her 30-year career—not one day. To me, it’s about setting a good example, being there, and helping them become thoughtful, independent people.

Harry Stebbings

She’s never missed a day of work? Does she want a job? I’ll hire her. That sounds fantastic.

Sridhar Ramaswamy

Please, hire away.

Harry Stebbings

The other side of that is, “You have a cold? Really? You can go to school. It’s all fine. You look fine. That fever? Not a fever.”

Sridhar, I so appreciate you doing this. I so appreciate our friendship. Thank you for being so open. I’ve loved doing this.

Sridhar Ramaswamy

Harry, this was a fun, fun, fun conversation. Thank you.

Sridhar Ramaswamy,Snowflake CEO:DeepSeek 并非 OpenAI 的威胁,OpenAI 胜过 Anthropic|E1258 — 文字稿与摘要 | BidClub