Sourcery

Molly O'Shea × Annie Lamont

AI’s investable bottlenecks are shifting toward power, memory, cooling, and data transfer as Moore’s Law nears a physical plateau.Micron, SK hynix, and Samsung control 95% of memory, whose price rose 700% this year as hyperscalers absorbed supply.Photonics could relieve several constraints, with co-packaged optics expected beside GPUs within five years as memory pressure pushes specialized hardware beyond ever-larger models.

Molly O'Shea × Brad Gerstner × Naveen Rao × Jonathan Neman × Toby Rice × Wen Sang × Geoff Woo × Nick Shirley × Jake Paul × Kent Draper × Michael Brandt

AI safety is converging toward company-led controls plus independent peer review, with Elon suggesting China might participate.Unconventional AI’s planned nanojoule-per-image disclosures could extend scaling and disrupt intelligence pricing, while Rao says software may capture very little value in 20 years.U.S. gas demand may rise 20–40%, and AIRIN’s 2026 capacity is sold out; data-center opposition and uncertain neocloud margins remain risks.

Tony Kim × Molly O'Shea

AI has shifted value toward chips and hardware, with Kim estimating $30T+ there versus roughly $10T across software/services/internet.Base compute has jumped 10,000×, while the rebuild may require a trillion dollars this year and ten trillion over five years.Token factories may compress SaaS margins; memory and foundation-lab IPOs are watchpoints as Kim says his thesis may change.

Ben Lamm × Molly O'Shea

Colossal’s woolly mice validated mammoth-editing in 30 days, with 100% healthy births and predicted phenotypes.With $635M raised, its screwworm solution could eradicate the problem in six to seven months versus $1.5B in taxpayer spending over eight years, pending permits.Astromec uses evolutionary-genomics AI for drug discovery; another extinct species may arrive within 12 months, but the target remains undisclosed.

Molly O'Shea × Adam Foroughi × Giovanni Ge

AppLovin rebuilt after a 92% post-IPO drawdown around Axon 2, with EBITDA run rate now over $7 billion.Semantic embeddings replaced Axon 1’s hundreds of thousands of if/else branches, improving extrapolation and lowering GPU costs while e-commerce showed decent ROAS on a premature model.Reaching a trillion-dollar valuation requires over $30 billion in annual cash flow, putting category expansion and creative execution under scrutiny.

Tony Kim × Molly O'Shea

AI has reset the market toward compute hardware, with Kim estimating more than $30T in chips and hardware versus roughly $10T in software, services, and internet.The resulting $1T of CapEx this year and $10T over five years is moving data centimeters and millimeters, but three-to-four-year fab cycles face memory shortages, making 2030 milestones such as quantum and orbital data centers key watchpoints.

Philip Clark × Molly O'Shea

Thrive’s $29B OpenAI entry reflected belief in GPT-4 and a claimed moat in generating successive large-model paradigms; reported valuation later reached $500B, with users surpassing a billion.Cursor grew from low-single-digit millions of ARR to hundreds of millions in 18 months, while Wiz paired six-figure deals closing in weeks or months with almost no churn.The next catalysts are reinforcement learning entering production software and intelligent hardware targeting well north of 50% of global GDP.

Molly O'Shea × Deedy Das

Goodfire, staffed by early Anthropic, DeepMind, and OpenAI interpretability researchers, is Das’s marquee “brain surgery for AI models” bet.Demographic decline makes AI for unhireable insurance, trucking, and logistics jobs a need-now market, not a future-capability wager.Carta’s 30% AI Series A premium may reward genuinely deep teams, while over-raising and RL bottlenecks keep pricing and timelines unresolved.

Apoorv Agrawal × Molly O'Shea

Altimeter made OpenAI its largest-ever investment at the $150B round, betting ChatGPT’s 700M weekly actives and announced $10B revenue run rate can scale toward a $200B consumer opportunity.Its power-law concentration rests on ChatGPT’s retention smile curve and release speed, while GPT-5’s benchmark jump from just under 60% to 81% highlights upside; whether OpenAI remains the winner and value shifts beyond semis remain unresolved.