Sohn Conference Foundation

Andrew Bellas × Eduardo Marques × David Rosen × Jonathan Lennon × Mitch Golden

Deep-value investors see “literally no buyers” in momentum-driven flows, supporting Viatris (VTRS) at 7x current and 6x forward earnings with 100% cash conversion, while Idorsia (IDIA SW) offers a leveraged pipeline trade.Carvana combines 1% share of a $1T, 40,000-player market with projectable 30%+ growth, but Idorsia’s 6-9-month readouts, QUVIVIQ descheduling, and AI-driven “service-level deflation” at REA remain decisive catalysts and risks.

Leon Shaulov × Alex Sacerdote × Leslie Picker

AI adoption may be far earlier than consensus: only 10 basis points of 1 billion white-collar workers use advanced agents, while Claude Code targets 500 million DAUs and power users consume a thousand times more compute.Foundation-model margins could be enormous, while WFE may rise from $120-130B to $300B in 3-4 years; sticky inflation, implementation hiring, and efficiency gains make the timing worth monitoring.

Rahul Kishore

Axon combines over 85% U.S. police-department penetration, 95% recurring revenue on 7–10-year contracts, and an AI Era plan priced at $570 per officer monthly.Draft One saves about 11 hours of desk time weekly, while Axon’s data flywheel supports AI gross margins above 85%.The plan generated $750M in first-year bookings from essentially zero, yet Axon trades near a decade-low valuation as Kishore targets a potential three-year doubling.

Ryan Packard

AppLovin’s e-commerce vertical becomes generally available within the next 3 months, expanding beyond five years of primarily mobile-gaming growth.Nearly $4 billion of 2025 free cash flow, over 25% pre-tax ROIC, and projected 2030 GAAP EPS of $50 underpin Packard’s potential doubling thesis.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Gavin Baker

Anthropic added $11B of ARR in March while tech reached its cheapest relative valuation in 10 years, making the drawdown a differentiated demand signal rather than a capitulation event.At a rumored $900B on $50B ARR, Baker estimates unconstrained run-rate revenue of $100–200B, while TSMC’s capacity choices remain the key bubble test and orbital compute threatens terrestrial power-and-cooling ramps.

Jonathan Ross × John Yetimoglu

Memory’s pricing power may be self-limiting: Deep Seek’s V4 reportedly compressed likely KV cache by 90%, while the proposed response is to build more memory fabs as bottlenecks attract solutions.The unresolved intelligence debate matters for AI economics, with agentic systems and self-training potentially favoring the smartest model despite humanly invisible differences.

Scott Goodwin

Private credit’s $2 trillion direct-lending slice grew as post-GFC rules pushed banks away from LBOs above 6x leverage, while BDC fees ran six-to-seven times CLO economics.AI-exposed SaaS loans were underwritten against ARR amid weaker covenants; Diameter says 40-50% of average portfolios carry AI risk, while 2021-22 maturities, divergent marks, and $150-200B of expected selling remain catalysts.

Soren Aandahl × Joyce Meng × Zachary Datikash × Jim Chanos

“Fake AI” screens, private-capital crowding, and AI’s potential to commoditize software and white-collar services define the panel’s differentiated short signals.Evidence ranges from unverifiable AI claims and 1%-terminal-growth DCF sensitivity to three Mister Car Wash locations within one mile and software rivals adding features overnight.Catalysts remain uncertain: AI’s timing and duration, narrow breadth, and potentially stretched sponsors warrant monitoring.

Orlando Bravo × Leslie Picker

Bravo argues domain software incumbents—not only AI-natives—are positioned to deliver the agentic enterprise after 20–30 years automating workflows.Leadership and 5-to-1 ROI, not data or system-of-record status, are the durable edge; retention has held despite AI disruption.Key watchpoints are agentic ROI, exits, and refinancing as leverage falls from 7–7.5x to 5x and spreads widen 250bps.

Connie Lee

nCino’s cloud lending platform combines over 90% recurring revenue, 40% incremental margins, and a recent 7% price increase with an $18B TAM that remains only 7% penetrated in commercial lending.Billings and backlog growth have reaccelerated after mortgage weakness, bank failures, and shareholder selling, but execution and a possible private-equity takeout remain the key risks to realizing the discount.