20VC

Harry Stebbings × Jack Altman

Instinct’s $1 billion round at a $10 billion valuation raises the bar for defensible economics before compute costs overwhelm the company.Miro’s sale to Bending Spoons for roughly $1.35 billion after a $17.5 billion valuation shows positive cash flow cannot prevent late-stage SaaS repricing, while Mistral’s €3 billion round underscores AI’s European sovereignty agenda.

Harry Stebbings × Alex Mashrabov

Higgsfield says it reached $1B in annualized revenue 18 months after $1M, using trailing-four-weeks revenue ×13 and counting only live revenue.The economics are unusually expansionary: month-12 business NRR exceeds 300%, while routing own/open-weight models produces over 80% margins versus 20–30% for closed-source models; monitor whether at least 30% monthly growth survives the projected substantial deceleration.

Harry Stebbings × Parag Agrawal

Discover’s fate changed when it moved one screen left beside friends’ Stories, showing that interface placement can outweigh a year of design work.Parag Agrawal argues that zero-to-one products require instinct before data, while separate revenue and innovation teams can prevent short-term incentives from blocking experimentation.At Match, success may mean never seeing a user again, making attention against TikTok and games the broader contest and Tinder’s AI photo selection a potential onboarding catalyst.

Harry Stebbings × Daniel Dines

Daniel Dines argues enterprise AI will diffuse process by process, because models retain context without being transformed by experience, while “millions of Einsteins” are not yet hireable people.The investable asset is the portable “map of work,” with AI designing deterministic, governed software around probabilistic models; UiPath’s 14% growth and production gaps in vibe-coded procurement tools leave timing and near-free human replacements as key risks.

Harry Stebbings

Instinct’s $1B raise at a $10B valuation pairs minute-long latency with compute costs: 10M users paying $10 monthly imply a $1.2B annual burden.Jason’s reversal—from recommending the round to refusing it—alongside Miro’s $1.3B sale from $17.5B and Canva’s slowdown from 30% to 20%, highlights SaaS’s shift from revenue multiples to EBITDA.

Harry Stebbings × Matteo Franceschetti

AI is letting Eight Sleep scale output: engineers direct hundreds of AI engineers, while email marketing generates close to $100M with a team of zero and paid media produces $200–300M with two people.Watch whether this productivity supports the three-year target of 250 people making a billion, amid talent retention, Anthropic’s cost curve, regulation, and model self-learning risks.

Harry Stebbings × Jean-Denis "JD" Grèze

Town converts more than 15% of trial users to paid and generates over $700 per user annually despite losing 30% at its mandatory email-and-calendar gate, while teams spend at least $75K per engineer on AI tools.Its agent-to-agent network effect could make team switching difficult, but zero pricing power at the frontier leaves economics dependent on whether inference costs fall and how much workload remains frontier.

Harry Stebbings × Cliff Weitzman

Speechify’s owned-GPU strategy compares $35,000–50,000 annual H100 rental with roughly $30,000 to buy, potentially lowering compute costs.NVIDIA’s deal with Blackstone, BlackRock, Apollo and Goldman Sachs could create a liquid secondary market and price floor through buybacks up to 25% of GPU value.Weitzman calls missing B2B his biggest strategic mistake; Simba 3.2 costs $10 per million characters versus ElevenLabs’ $100, but execution against an “unstoppable” rival remains unresolved.

Harry Stebbings

NVIDIA delivered a record $96.2B quarter and guided to 70% growth for the fiscal year ending January 2028, with end-user demand and share loss the key risks.The reported near-$12.9B Hugging Face deal, not finalized or confirmed, would reinforce open-source compute economics and NVIDIA’s push to win every segment.Agents are becoming software buyers, supporting the cases for Clay at $7B and Linear at $2.5B, while cyber exposure and reward hacking remain unresolved.

Harry Stebbings × Aaron Katz

Aaron Katz rejects the AI-bubble thesis, citing unprecedented adoption and revenue acceleration.ClickHouse grew from zero to over 500 in revenue, with over 99% gross retention and over 200% net dollar retention.AI customers remain below 12% of revenue, but agentic applications’ low switching costs leave durability unresolved.