David Sacks

Chamath Palihapitiya × Jason Calacanis × David Sacks × David Friedberg

Nvidia’s $96.2B revenue and $60B net profit came with 70% growth guidance versus the Street’s 45%, despite supply constraints.Salesforce’s 20%+ rally on $5.90 adjusted EPS and a $46B guide suggests agents may reinforce horizontal systems of record, while vertical SaaS remains contested.Debt also bears watching: $10T must be refinanced within 12 months at a 5.2% 30-year rate.

Chamath Palihapitiya × Jason Calacanis × David Sacks × David Friedberg

AI agents are expanding knowledge work before replacing it, with users working faster, covering more tasks, and reporting greater stress and burnout.Jason’s venture firm has four of 20 employees focused on adoption, while OpenClaw agents perform roughly 20% of an average investment-team member’s work and 30% of his assistant’s former workload.Agents reached $300 per day each through cloud APIs, making on-premises infrastructure and token-cost declines key variables for scale.

Chamath Palihapitiya × Jason Calacanis × David Sacks × David Friedberg

Clawdbot demonstrates measurable white-collar substitution, completing research, CRM, outreach and scheduling while costing roughly $100 in first-day API calls and potentially replacing 40 of a producer’s 50 weekly hours.Open-source Kimi K2.5 could cut inference costs sharply, but hidden prompts, code injection and update drift remain unresolved as dollar weakness and refinancing costs intensify the broader economic pressure.

Chamath Palihapitiya × Jason Calacanis × David Sacks × David Friedberg

The panel’s most aggressive macro signal is 5%-6% U.S.GDP growth in 2026, supported by AI productivity, tax refunds, capital investment, and possible rate cuts, while California’s proposed 5% wealth tax creates a migration and asset-pricing risk.Copper, Polymarket, Huawei, and Amazon supply the clearest upside calls, but software maintenance, entry-level white-collar work, oil, the dollar, and California luxury property remain key disruption or downside themes.

Chamath Palihapitiya × Jason Calacanis × David Sacks × David Friedberg × Brad Gerstner

Trump’s first-phase Gaza deal pairs a ceasefire and unrestricted aid with hostage and prisoner releases plus an initial Israeli withdrawal, though “the Middle East has a way of disappointing you.”The panel linked regional stability to oil monetization and investment, while the Chicago dispute exposed unresolved risks around federal enforcement, political consent, and the roughly $100,000-per-deportation cost cited for ICE.

Chamath Palihapitiya × Jason Calacanis × David Sacks × David Friedberg

A weak $16 billion Treasury auction pushed the 30-year yield to 5.1%, making fiscal slippage a live cost-of-capital threat as every additional percentage point adds roughly $350 billion of annual interest.Japan’s rising yields could trigger Treasury selling, while Google’s AI Mode and OpenAI’s $6.5 billion io acquisition test new distribution models; energy supply remains the unresolved constraint on AI-led growth.

Travis Kalanick × David Sacks

DeepSeek R1 narrowed perceived China’s AI gap to roughly three-to-six months and challenged frontier-model scarcity after NVIDIA erased roughly $600 billion.GRPO, bare-metal PTX, and a roughly one-twelfth API price support genuine efficiency, though DeepSeek’s $6 million final-run figure and alleged OpenAI distillation remain disputed.Cheaper intelligence could multiply demand and shift value toward applications, proprietary data, and physical execution.