[BidClub_]
20VC · · 65 min

The Five Year Desert to Product Market Fit & a $5.3BN Valuation with Shiv Rao, Founder @ Abridge

Harry StebbingsShiv Rao

YouTube
TL;DR
  • The company's five-year desert (founded 2018, three months after the Transformer paper; hot only since 2023) distills to one survival rule: hold the thesis, pivot everything else. Shiv Rao was willing to pivot product, go-to-market, and business model, "but I wasn't willing to move on the thesis" — that clinical conversations are "the most human signal" powering healthcare. Until the market opens, "you just need to not die" — be standing when the sky opens.
  • On the existential question every vertical AI founder gets: "If you are fighting against them, you've already lost." If foundation-model tailwinds aren't yours to leverage, you're screwed. The company's defense is depth — a regulated, $5.3T industry (18-19% of US GDP) where post-training on daily user edits across doctor types, settings, and languages is the product: "people in 2023 thought that was last mile. That's actually most of it. The model piece is much less."
  • ~40% of the company's in-product model outputs come from in-house models — possibly 60% next month as distilled open-source models replace frontier calls. The rule: binary, ring-the-bell tasks go in-house (faster, cheaper, set-and-forget); never-perfect tasks where the market rewards continuous improvement "ride the frontier wave." Owning the lower stack gives "agency on the P&L" — a lever he doesn't need now but "my future self might care more."
  • The healthcare GTM trap: it's not one $5.3T market, and founders who take the "start down-market" advice literally never time their "YOLO shot" up-market — 800K practicing doctors are concentrated in large delivery networks. The company's opening came in 2023 when burnout (40-50% of doctors; a JAMA study saying 30% of nurses wanted out within 12 months) met LLMs: "when the sky opened, we ran right in." Now doctors reportedly refuse to join hospitals that don't have "a bridge."
  • The note was never the product — the note is a bill. Clinicians "are compensated for the care that they documented that they deliver," so the company sequenced notes → orders → billing along jobs nobody wanted, threading CMIO, CIO, and CFO. Result: Microsoft/Nuance (a $20B+ acquisition) and likely Nabler "we don't see either of those companies much anymore" — not through bundling defense but category creation; Emory doctors now use "a bridge" as a verb.
  • OpenAI and Anthropic hiring forward-deployed engineers and partnering with PE firms is, to Rao, a clear bull signal for vertical AI: "If that wasn't a sign that there is absolutely an incredible opportunity... I don't know what is." The mess is the moat — "it's not SOC 2, it's HITRUST," behavioral-health data handled differently, enterprise data cleanup that takes real machinery to scale.
  • Offered frontier-model access six months early versus the best talent pool for six months, Rao takes talent, "no question about it" — great people build your own primitives and the frontier arbitrage "is not the be-all and end-all." On Goldman's estimate that agents drive 24X token consumption in five years: directionally right — jobs you're never good enough at are "bottomless pits," and Jevons means "a tsunami of healthcare needs" the system can't deliver.
  • Founder mode, via investor Jensen (who cold-called Rao at midnight replying to a two-line email): not micromanagement but "tours of duty" — and "your job is to fall in love with whatever the job is," CRISPR-ing new DNA that loves living on airplanes. Rao is unapologetically a wartime CEO ("who's a peacetime CEO?"), envisions flattening his 450-person org around "super ICs," and hires for Josh Wolfe's "chips on shoulders makes chips in pockets."
Digest · the substance, structured for research

1. Five years in the desert: die on the thesis, pivot everything else

  • Founded 2018 — "we started 3 months after the Transformer paper" — the company was hot for only the last 2-3 years; Harry calls it "a 5-year wilderness walk." Rao's survival mechanics: a true north you feel in your bones — that conversations are "the most human signal" in healthcare, on which "you can build a whole new set of rails" — plus brute persistence: "You just need to stay standing. You just need to not die. You just need to be there when it's happening."
  • Would he have died on that hill? Yes. He was willing to pivot on product, feature order, go-to-market, and business model — "but I wasn't willing to move on the thesis." If the thesis failed, "we'd just shut it down and start something new."
  • The self-diagnosed mistake: pre-LLM they were fine-tuning BERT, BioBERT, Longformer, Pegasus, and T5 (publishing a 2021 paper on doing today's jobs with pre-LLM models) while building a direct-to-consumer patient app ("Hey, can I record?"). Consumer healthcare companies "paint themselves into a corner" — business models that "would require you to take multiple showers every single day cuz you're selling really private sensitive information." "We realized that too late"; he'd have spent a couple more cycles in the "research caves" instead.

2. How USV happened: music taste as diligence, in both directions

  • Rao stalked Union Square Ventures for years before the first meeting. What convinced him: their ritual of talking about music — "country western on Monday, indie hip-hop on Wednesday, Swedish death metal on Friday." If they could pattern-match across genres, they could think about healthcare in a new way. He got in through an angel via an MIT friend and "knew at the end of that meeting that we were going to work together." The seed: $5M on a $15M pre, 2018-19.
  • Andy Weissman's tell, as Rao tells it: ask the world's biggest coffee snob about his ritual and he says "coffee's coffee, man"; ask about music and it's "I like all the sounds."
  • A company value written in 2021-22, before the taste discourse: "you have to taste good things to have good taste." In practice: read the latest arXiv papers, absorb the newest UI/UX primitives, be "living at the edge of culture" — because the best companies are also creating it.

3. Healthcare GTM: it's not one $5.3T market — time your YOLO shot

  • The standard advice — start down-market, swim upstream — is a trap here. Of roughly a million US doctors, maybe 800,000 practice, and they're concentrated in integrated delivery networks, payer-providers, and academic medical centers (the Emorys, Yales, UCSFs). "The trap a lot of healthcare founders fall into is that they stay down market... they don't time their YOLO shot to go up market at the right moment."
  • The 2023 opening: 40-50% of doctors reporting burnout post-pandemic, a JAMA study finding 30% of nurses didn't want to be nurses within 12 months, Medicare cuts compounding financial pressure — "we were pre-selling the market... and in 2023 when the sky opened, we ran right in." Now it's table stakes: doctors won't sign with hospitals that don't have "a bridge," a shift that happened "almost overnight, over the course of 3 to 4 years."
  • The hardest raise was the Series A1 — "there's a digit at the end of it... obviously things are tough over there." A handful of no's, then Whittington Ventures alongside USV and Bessemer did it at a 2X, at 100, pre-inflection: "folks believed that it was coming soon."

4. Vintage discipline and the foundation-model question

  • Rao's taxonomy of AI-native vintages: post-Transformer pre-LLM, post-LLM pre-agent, post-agent. "Whatever your vintage, you have to become the latest variant as fast as you possibly can" — and that means the product and the way the company is organized both change.
  • His answer to "won't OpenAI/Anthropic build healthcare apps?": "If you are fighting against them, you've already lost." The choice is coexist or collaborate — "if the tailwinds that they create are not yours to leverage, then you're screwed."
  • The reframe: healthcare is $5.3 trillion, 18-19% of US GDP — "I don't know if it's a vertical AI company... we are an AI company" serving one of the biggest opportunities there is. The defense is going "millions of miles deep in a regulated industry with proprietary data sets" built into workflows "really really hard to replicate."
  • The 2023 misread, corrected: post-training — learning from every user's daily edits, across all doctor types, care settings, and spoken languages — "people in 2023 thought that was last mile. That's actually most of it. The model piece is much less." The vertical AI companies with the most upside "reach farther down into the stack and own their destiny."

5. 40% in-house models: the binary-task rule

  • About 40% of model outputs inside the product are generated by in-house models, varying month to month: "next month it might be 60% because we've distilled a new open source model and fine-tuned it... and we've just replaced a frontier model."
  • The allocation rule: binary, ring-the-bell tasks (get the nurse's data point into the right discrete field at the right moment) go in-house — faster, cheaper, and "set and forget." Tasks "you're never going to be perfect on," where the market rewards being "less imperfect than you were before" every month, "ride the frontier wave."
  • Why build at all: milliseconds in workflow. "We want to be like good air conditioning, where when it's set right, we're in the background" — and for high-stakes moments like a doctor okaying an order or a visit diagnosis before the patient leaves the room, frontier-model latency simply couldn't deliver. (He points to the new Thinking Machines in-the-moment agent as the kind of experience requiring "insane performance and latency.")
  • On cost discipline: "I don't care now. But I also know that my future self might care more" — the recent weeks of angst about model costs rising make having "little levers" on the P&L useful. And on when optimization matters, the Henry Kravis story: asked in their first meeting whether he wanted to IPO, Rao fumbled until Kravis interrupted — "No, you don't. You don't need to. Why are you even thinking about it?"

6. The wedge is the conversation; the note is a bill

  • The load-bearing insight: clinicians "are not compensated for the care that they deliver. They're compensated for the care that they documented that they deliver." So the note was always a bill, and the roadmap ran along jobs nobody wanted: notes → orders → billing. "No doctor went to billing school" — as a health-system corporate VC, Rao watched revenue-cycle lunch-and-learns with pizza and PowerPoints draw the "thousand yard stare."
  • The enterprise sale means threading three lenses at once — CMIO, CIO, and CFO — and architecting note generation from day one so it extends "into the CFO's world."
  • On Epic: "we are not competing with Epic." They have "a product or a feature" for notes, but the company never wanted to be an EMR — it builds the intelligence layer on top, wedged into "that sacrosanct moment in health care where the actual value is getting exchanged."
  • On competition: Microsoft, via its $20-some-billion Nuance acquisition, was the first big competitor; now "we don't see either of those companies much anymore" (the other, called Nabler by Rao) — Rao thinks category creation played a role, though he isn't sure bundling played none: doctors at Emory using "a bridge" as a verb meaning "it did all these different jobs for me and unburdened me." His general advice invokes Hamilton Helmer's counter-positioning: build "in a way where the competitor couldn't build because it would impact their current business."

7. Trust economics and the vertical AI signal

  • What the company could monetize but won't: data. "The industry moves at the speed of trust" — and they've built in four years "what a lot of companies take 15 to 20 years" to build. Harry's moral pushback — wouldn't a healthcare data market improve models for global benefit? — gets the "earn the right" doctrine: health-system partners bless the roadmap in advance, papered into contracts. A greater-good foundation model? "Absolutely. We would just want to do that with everybody's eyes wide open."
  • The OpenAI/Anthropic forward-deployed-engineer announcements and PE-portfolio partnerships read to Rao as a clear signal: "If that wasn't a sign that there is absolutely an incredible opportunity for the foreseeable future for vertical AI, I don't know what is." Why: enterprise reality is brutal — data access, cleaning, workflow integration, and compliance where "it's not SOC 2, it's HITRUST," and psych-encounter data must be treated differently from a primary-care visit. No FDA process required in their case — but building a scalable machine for all this is the moat.

8. "Just replace the doctors" — the 30-hour day and Jevons

  • Harry's pushback on the company's new clinical-cues feature: "if you're giving them prompts for questions and diagnoses, for goodness' sake, just replace them." Rao's answer runs through a journal study showing doctors need 30 hours a day to finish their work — the company parsed those tasks and is "picking them off" with teams of background agents. High-frequency, low-stakes care (he cites the Utah controversy over automating medication refills) will be progressively automated toward "the most boring variant of primary care that nobody wants to practice" — but the hard cases are where judgment gets real, and "invoke Jevons paradox or whatever, we're in for a tsunami of healthcare needs and the system is not prepared to deliver it."
  • On Goldman's estimate that agents will increase token consumption 24X in five years: "I don't know about the specific number, but directionally, I think so... you just can't get enough of this technology once you start to use it." Jobs you'll never be good enough on are "bottomless pits."
  • Forced to choose between six months of early frontier-model access and six months of the best researchers and engineers: "B. No question about it." Great people build your own models and primitives; the frontier arbitrage window "is not the be-all and end-all for us."

9. Founder mode is tours of duty; the org is flattening

  • Jensen — an investor in the company — cold-called Rao at midnight, responding to a two-line email sent that day ("his SLAs are insane"). The lesson Rao took: "your job is to fall in love with whatever the job is" — you "CRISPR new DNA" that loves living on airplanes. Founder mode isn't micromanaging: "it's about tours of duty" — go crush whatever's on fire, where you're best. Not yet CRISPRed: HR reporting to him, where he's not "operating top of license."
  • Wartime or peacetime CEO? "There's no other way to be... who's a peacetime CEO?" Maybe Costco's — "Ron something," the forklift-to-executive-office lifer he calls the most underappreciated CEO, alongside Ali Ghodsi "in the way he plays his chess." Hiring filter: Josh Wolfe's "chips on shoulders makes chips in pockets" — insane slope from somewhere deep, because "it's always wartime and it's a different kind of war now... not everybody's a warrior."
  • What he's changed his mind on in 12 months: how flat a company can be — fewer managers, "super ICs" taking on much more, coordinated "in a way that was impossible before." At 450 people he still thinks all-A-players is possible; he stopped meeting every hire around 100. The hardest hire now: high-judgment executives who can pattern-match against priors yet go against them, as "the time between a decision and an action is getting compressed."
  • On the $300M round (about a year ago) and spending discipline: hire principled finance leaders, and against goals that matter "you don't want to blink" — though the fancy speakers he ordered for the New York office get a concession: "sometimes that stuff creates culture, too."

10. The end state: change the business model, not science fiction in a clinic

  • His map of US healthcare is the old XKCD Conway's Law cartoon — the Microsoft org chart of "silos pointing guns at each other": providers, insurers, and life sciences misaligned with each other and with patients. "The opportunity that we've got right now with AI is not to deploy the latest model and make science fiction happen in a clinic, it's to change the business model." Both ends of the spectrum move: AI doctors and automated low-stakes workflows below, human experts when you're really sick, and new models that "incent prevention" — "care... not sick care." Timeline: "the beginnings of that in the next three to five" years, not ten.
  • On inevitability — the placebo effect of great investors betting on you: "the more you can feel inevitable, the more you will be." Now: "I feel our mission is absolutely inevitable... but we're at war to make sure that we're the ones to do it and we do it in the next two to three years."
  • The personal ledger, stated without varnish: "the folks who say you can have everything are lying." He's in San Francisco Monday-Wednesday, with customers after, family on weekends — anchored in Pittsburgh for aging parents ("my dad has heart failure"), and Sundays with his parents are the thing he refuses to miss. On Harry's claim that SF is the worst place to start a company, he disagrees: they moved from Pittsburgh in 2022-23 "exactly at the right time" as they inflected — "the amount of ideas that you just osmotically absorb by being there" matters.

Verification Notes

  • The raw captions say “Abacus” in the introduction but render “a bridge” elsewhere; the company name is unresolved.
Shiv Rao

When we created our company values, one of them is that you have to taste good things to have good taste.

Harry Stebbings

Oh, that's a good line.

Now, joining me in the hot seat today, we have Shiv Rao, founder and CEO of Abacus. What I love about Abacus is, yes, it is a $5.3 billion company today. They have the best investors in the world in the company today, but they went through a 5- to 6-year wilderness period. They were founded in 2018, but now they are one of the hottest companies in AI.

Shiv Rao

Being one of the first in vertical AI is critical. When you saw the announcements from OpenAI and Anthropic about forward-deployed engineers and these partnerships with big private equity groups to go help their portfolios, if that wasn't a sign that there is absolutely an incredible opportunity for the foreseeable future for vertical AI, I don't know what is. We're in for a tsunami of healthcare needs, and the system is not prepared to deliver it.

Harry Stebbings

Ready to go?

Shiv, I am so excited for this. People don't know, but we actually met because I used you as a reference on a company, and you were phenomenally helpful—to the extent that my partner was like, “Can we just invest in him instead?”

Which really would have been a much better idea, and I should have gone, “Yes, 100%,” and broken all the rules for it. Thank you so much for joining me.

1. Five Years in the Wilderness: Lessons on Market Timing

Shiv Rao

Oh, it's such a privilege. All right, you're a legend. Dude, I so appreciate that.

Harry Stebbings

Let's start with one that I often think about. Great CEOs are motivated by one of 2 things, I've found: either the fear of losing or the thrill of winning. There's no right or wrong, but if you were to say which one you are, which would you say you are?

Shiv Rao

Oh, it's the thrill of winning, 100%. The high-stakes games, going for broke, trying to do something really big, trying to build a new product, and trying to bend a new market or create a new one.

Harry Stebbings

You said “bend a new market.” Again, I sent you this beforehand, you write it on the fly, and now I'm just kind of going off script.

I think you started the company in 2018. Now it's 2026. You've been hot for 2 or 3 years. That's a 5-year wilderness walk. What are your biggest lessons on market timing as a result of reflecting on that?

Shiv Rao

I think that certain companies, certainly ours, have to have a true north. You live every day in anticipation that the sky is going to open up because you have this thesis about the market. You might not necessarily know exactly when it's going to come true, but you know it's going to come true.

When you feel that in your bones, then I think you can draw a lot of resilience. You can figure out that you just need to stay standing. You just need to not die. You just need to be there when it's happening. For us, it was absolutely that way.

It was this thesis, this idea, this secret hiding in plain sight: that this data set—these conversations—it's the most human signal, and it really powers healthcare. You can build a whole new set of rails on top of this signal. The thinking was, well, at some point in time, the technology is going to be right, but also the market is going to be open.

Harry Stebbings

Would you have died on this hill? What I mean by that is, sometimes you can have a thesis, you can even be right, but the market doesn't move fast enough.

Shiv Rao

I would have died on this hill. I was willing to pivot on the specific product and what specific order we'd put a feature out. I was willing to pivot on go-to-market. Certainly, we learned so much. Healthcare is incredibly complicated. Figuring out go-to-market is a really big part of how you win.

But I wasn't willing to move on the thesis. For us, that thesis—that healthcare is about people and they're having conversations—I think was core to the identity, and it would just have to be an entirely new thing. We would just shut it down and start something new if there was something else we could get really passionate about.

Harry Stebbings

You said before about the references that I take. I do. I stalked the shit out of you before this, which should make you feel very comfortable sitting in this dark room alone with me. End of the day in London, why not?

I spoke to Andy Weissman, who led your seed round. I think market timing's one thing founders often worry about. Fundraising's another really hard thing. Was it an easy pre-seed, seed, early fundraising environment for you?

Shiv Rao

I wouldn't say it was easy, but it wasn't hard at the same time. This was 2018, 2019. Our seed round was like—we raised $5 million on a pre of $15 million. So, not the world we live in right now, but it made sense then. We felt like this was the market, and we did a really good job.

I think that there is founder-market fit, but there's also founder-partner fit. When you just have chemistry with a person at a firm, you know you're going to find a way to work together.

With USV and Andy, I stalked Union Square Ventures for years ahead of the first meeting that I had with them and with him. I would read all of their tweets back when it was Twitter. They had this ritual where they would talk about music, and I was always really impressed that they seemed to pattern-match across totally different genres: country western on Monday, indie hip-hop on Wednesday, and Swedish death metal on Friday.

To me, that's how I enjoy music as well. My thesis was that if they could extract at that level, they could be the right tech investor to think about healthcare in a new, different way. So I found a way to get to them through an angel, through a friend at MIT. Then we went in and pitched, and I knew at the end of that meeting that we were going to work together.

Harry Stebbings

So, would you not approve of my liking Celine Dion and Taylor Swift? Would that go against me?

Shiv Rao

Speaking of Andy, Andy says this thing. He's the biggest coffee snob in the world. I once asked him about exactly what his rituals are—the temperature, the bean, and all that stuff—and he was just like, “Coffee's coffee, man. I'll have any coffee.”

When you ask him about music, he'll say, “I like all the sounds.” So maybe on some level, you can see the patterns and enjoy anything.

Harry Stebbings

I know it's very random, but what you said about coffee there and Andy made me think about taste. Everyone talks about taste today. It's the difference between those that are truly special and what separates humans and AI. How do you reflect on taste being the differentiator?

Shiv Rao

When we created our company values—this was before this whole taste cycle—one of them is that you have to taste good things to have good taste.

This idea of taste makes a ton of sense to us. It's not just judgment, but being able to see patterns and put things together in interesting ways that hit different, that feel different, that feel authentic, and that really represent a person or people.

I think that's where the truly magical companies are these days: where you can feel the human behind the product and feel the decisions that they made, the things that they said no to, and the strong opinions held tightly that they died on the hill for.

Harry Stebbings

Taste—I love that. “Taste good things to have good taste.” Does that mean you should taste everything?

Shiv Rao

No, but I do think it means you've got to be discerning. If you're not exposing yourself to certain flavors, then you're just not going to be aware of them.

I think the way we translate that in the company, for example, is that we should be reading the latest arXiv papers about some new type of machine learning model that maybe we can leverage. We should be thinking about the latest UI/UX patterns out there and where we could take these primitives in our own specific space.

We should be living at the edge of culture if we also want to create it. I think the best companies, in some way, shape, or form, are creating culture.

Harry Stebbings

Can I ask—you said “strong opinions loosely held.” What was the strongest opinion that you've had that's loosely held?

Shiv Rao

Yeah. The loosely held opinions—there are the tightly held ones, the ones that we would die on the hill for. The loosely held ones are the ones that I've shifted on pretty profoundly over time.

I've had loosely held opinions about where the company's limits are—how far we could expand and how quickly we could expand. I think a lot of our priors, all of our priors, are getting updated.

Harry Stebbings

How do you feel about growing as quickly as you have done?

Shiv Rao

I'm incredibly grateful and feel incredibly privileged. But in some way, I feel like we're on this journey that we were meant to be on. We're doing this thing that we're supposed to do.

By “we,” I mean it's not just the company, but all of our health system partners. It feels like we're part of a movement that we're trying to create right now. So I can't say that I ever woke up being like, “What is going on?”

But I can say that I've gone to bed at night feeling like this is awesome, this is great, and we have to think about making it even greater. You wake up in the morning and you're not at all satisfied. But at night, there's one thing that one mentor, a cardiology mentor, once told me.

He's like, “Try to go to bed with a little bit of perspective and a little bit of gratitude, at least, knowing full well you're going to wake up with that fire in your belly again.”

Harry Stebbings

As a founder, do you think you can ever be satisfied?

Shiv Rao

Probably not. You always want something more. You always want to build something bigger, and your ambition always gets bigger. Maybe it doesn't get bigger; maybe you just reconcile yourself to a change in scope over time.

2. Healthcare Adoption of AI Is Now Table Stakes

Harry Stebbings

You said that about the healthcare partners you work with today. I'm an investor in Legora. By no means similar in terms of space, but it's a large space that's traditional and now seeing a tidal wave of adoption, similar to healthcare. Every single law firm right now is going, “AI—I need AI to stay relevant.” Is that the same with healthcare and healthcare partners, or is the downside fear factor making it slower?

Shiv Rao

No, 100%. It's every single health system right now. There are doctors right now we've heard who won't sign up to join a health system, a hospital, if they don't have a bridge. It's one of those moments where, all of a sudden, almost overnight, over the course of 3 to 4 years, something just became table stakes. It's part and parcel with how care is delivered, especially in the outpatient space.

3. The GTM Trap Most Healthcare Founders Fall Into

Harry Stebbings

Mhm. What did you not expect in GTM that surprised you most? This is where strong ideas held loosely.

Shiv Rao

When you first raise capital, maybe you hear an investor give you advice about starting down-market and swimming upstream, disrupting over time. Get that PMF, find those fast feedback loops. It's true to an extent, but you just have to be really careful and mindful because healthcare, specifically in the United States, is not one $5.3 trillion market. It's a bunch of different markets, and depending on who you're trying to serve, you have to be really careful about how you segment.

If you're trying to serve clinicians—doctors—there are about 1 million doctors in the country. Maybe 800,000 of them are actually practicing. The vast majority of them are concentrated in large care delivery systems. They're called integrated delivery networks or payer-providers. They also have payer arms, insurance arms, or they're academic medical centers like the Emorys, the Yales, the UCSFs, and beyond.

When they're concentrated there, you have to think about getting there as fast as you possibly can. Obviously, you've got huge ambition. You want to create as much impact as you need to. I think the trap that a lot of healthcare founders fall into is that they stay down-market. They don't time their YOLO shot to go up-market at the right moment.

For us, things really worked out. We're incredibly lucky and incredibly privileged, but things worked out. A lot of different things happened in the marketplace at the same time. On the other side of the pandemic, I'd say 40%–50% of the doctors in this country were saying that they were burned out. There was a study about nurses recently that was published in JAMA that suggested that 30% of nurses in the country didn't want to be nurses in the next 12 months.

There's all this burnout and fatigue. There are incredible financial pressures that have only continued since then, coming down from, for example, Medicare cuts. At the same time, there's this new technology. There's AI. We were in that moment where, without even knowing it, we were pre-selling the market and preparing the market for what we could bring. Then, in 2023, when the sky opened, we ran right in.

Harry Stebbings

I want to unpack a load of things. How important is being first?

Shiv Rao

I think it is critical in vertical AI. I think being one of the first—being early—I think being late doesn't work. But there's that refrain that being early is also being wrong. I think we're a good case study in being resilient. You can overcome that issue of being perhaps too early.

There are maybe 3 variants of an AI-native company. In my head, there's a post-Transformer-paper, pre-LLM company. There's a post-LLM, pre-agent company. There's a post-agent company. Depending on your vintage, you have to make sure that you become the latest variant as fast as you possibly can.

That might mean that your product evolves pretty significantly. It might also mean that the way you organize and operate your company evolves pretty significantly, as we're seeing in this new era with agents. We were a post-Transformer, pre-LLM company. As soon as the LLM moment happened, we became that as fast as we possibly could in all the different ways. We've been doing the same thing in this new world with agents.

Harry Stebbings

Totally understand that. Can I ask you how you think about it? There are a couple of different ways that you can break down competition.

Shiv Rao

Yeah.

Harry Stebbings

3 come to mind for me, and you can tell me I'm an idiot. Very likely, as a venture investor, one of them is the age-old question. I see Matt from Legora pushing back against this now: Anthropic can release a legal product. The foundation models could very easily do an Abridge and build out a product suite. How do you fight back against foundation models that will build healthcare applications and replace you?

4. How Being First in Vertical AI Creates an Unbeatable Moat

Shiv Rao

If you are fighting against them, you've already lost. If you haven't figured out how you're going to win with them, are you going to just coexist but actually find ways to collaborate, potentially? If the tailwinds that they create are not yours to leverage, then you're screwed.

5. If Foundation Models Are Your Enemy, You've Already Lost

Harry Stebbings

What does that mean for you, then, if we take—

Shiv Rao

Yeah. Healthcare—we say this is a vertical AI company, but think about it: healthcare is a $5.3 trillion market. It's about 18%–19% of US GDP. It's a big part of the US economy. In a sense, I don't know if it's a vertical AI company. We are an AI company, in my head, serving one of the biggest opportunities that is out there.

In this market, you can go millions of miles deep. Especially on the enterprise side of the spectrum of healthcare, you can go millions of miles deep in a regulated industry with proprietary datasets that you can build into very, very specific workflows in a way that's really, really hard to replicate.

Being fast and getting scale very, very quickly is crucial because scale enables you to not just build more products and get more surface area, but we do a lot of mid-training and post-training in the company. On the post-training side, it's being able to learn from all the user edits on a daily basis. It's being able to be useful for all the different types of doctors, in all the different settings where they deliver care, and all the different spoken languages they might use with their patients.

People in 2023 thought that was the last mile. That's actually most of it. It's that part. The model piece is much less. But even on the model side, I think the vertical AI companies that have the most leverage and the most upside are the ones that can reach farther down into the stack and own their destiny in a differentiated way, that can control their P&L.

Harry Stebbings

How much of the quality of your product is derived from the quality of the model that you sit on top of?

Shiv Rao

About 40% of our model outputs inside our product are generated by in-house models.

Harry Stebbings

Huh. What do you expect that to be in 2 to 3 years?

Shiv Rao

That's a great question. I think this is where nobody knows the answer, but you just have to be principled in how you approach this. There are any number of different problems we solve as a company with our product.

Some of those problems you can imagine ringing the bell relatively easily. If we help the nurse with this piece of data getting into this discrete field at this time in their workflow, we won the game. There are no bells and whistles around this. Once you do it, you've done it. It's binary.

Those sorts of tasks—being able to crush it with an in-house model—make total sense for a lot of different reasons, but most importantly for the user. Chances are it's going to be faster. You can optimize that model over time from not just a latency-per-token perspective, but also from a cost standpoint.

Once you've done it, too, you can set and forget to some extent. “Okay, let's move on to the next challenge inside this new product that we're delivering for nurses.”

But then there are certain challenges in your product suite that you're never going to be perfect on. Every week, every month, you want to be able to look back and say you're less imperfect than you were before, and it's going to matter. It needs to matter to the market.

If the market cares about you always improving on something that you don't think you'll ever be perfect on—and healthcare has a lot of use cases like this—it makes more sense to ride the frontier wave.

Harry Stebbings

Why did you decide to build your own models when Caresso did, and TBD on whether that was actually effective, when you have the historical precedent to say that underlying models move faster and more efficiently than you could create them yourself?

Shiv Rao

Well, number 1, it starts with the end user.

The milliseconds matter when you're in workflow. These are doctors who have no patience for new technology. I think our refrain inside the company is, “Reduce, reduce, reduce,” from a product and user experience standpoint. We want to be like good air conditioning, where, when it's set right, we're in the background and you're just focusing on everything that's more important.

Harry Stebbings

Oh, that's a good line.

Shiv Rao

And to get to that, though, you really need to think about being in workflow. The Thinking Machines stuff that just came out is really fascinating. It's like an agent that's in the moment with you, right? But that kind of experience needs insane performance and latency, and that's something that we weren't able to achieve in an easy, elegant way with frontier models.

For certain use cases, there was really no choice. It started with the end user. We were like, “Okay, to deliver this kind of value, this specific type of value in workflow, so that before the patient leaves the room, the doctor is okaying an order or putting in the right visit diagnosis that ends up informing billing and their own reimbursement”—these are high-stakes workflows. You need to be fast, and so that's where things started.

But quality is a part of it, too. A crucial part of it.

Harry Stebbings

Yeah. What does the relationship look like for you between you and frontier models, and you and open-source models? Has your reliance on one changed over time?

Shiv Rao

It's dynamic. Inside the company, we always remind ourselves that the only thing that matters is the end user. We just have to have the best product, whatever it's going to take. There cannot be any pride of ownership here. It's just about what gives us the best user experience.

That has ended up serving us really, really well, because especially over the last weeks, there's been a lot of angst about perhaps costs going up in the coming weeks and months and what's that going to do?

Harry Stebbings

How cost-conscious are you? If you look at open source, obviously, it's much cheaper to run versus being reliant on a frontier model. Do you care if the output is different?

Shiv Rao

I don't care now, but I also know that my future self might care more. That attitude is, again, I think, just putting the user first. In our specific space, given our product and where it sits in workflow, that has allowed us to build at a layer of the stack that gives us agency on the P&L that we wouldn't have otherwise.

That's awesome, but that's not what we're optimizing for right now, obviously. It's nice that we have those little levers.

Harry Stebbings

I have this conversation with a lot of founders, and it's the same as this: “Bloody hell, we've got a lot of funding. We don't need to optimize for costs now.” Absolutely the right answer. When do you?

Shiv Rao

When it gets in the way of our ability to create more impact—to raise more money, to impact more users. I don't think it necessarily has to do with anything around IPOing.

One of our investors is Henry Kravis.

Harry Stebbings

Yeah, he's the dude who created 2 and 20. Amazing.

Shiv Rao

Yeah, I'm a student of venture.

Harry Stebbings

That's like saying you created a continent.

Shiv Rao

Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's so incredible, but he's such an approachable person despite everything he's accomplished. I remember sitting down with him in the first meeting, and one of his questions was, “Do you want to go public?”

I remember starting to clumsily navigate an answer on the fly, and he interrupted me and said, “No, you don't. You don't need to. Why are you even thinking about it?” The right answer was, “No, I don't need to. I have a mission, and to serve that mission, I will do what it takes. If I can do it in the private markets, I'll raise money there. If I need to go public to do that, then I will go public.”

Harry Stebbings

I think one of the biggest barriers to AI progression within large enterprises in the U.S. will be data cleanliness and data structure within large enterprises. Is it a mess in large healthcare organizations in terms of data preparation, data structure, and data cleanliness?

Shiv Rao

Yeah, it is. When you saw the announcements from OpenAI and Anthropic about forward-deployed engineers and these partnerships with big private equity groups to go help their portfolios, if that wasn't a sign that there is an incredible opportunity for the foreseeable future for vertical AI, I don't know what is.

Harry Stebbings

Help me understand that. Why is that?

Shiv Rao

It's not easy to go into one of these enterprises and figure stuff out: to get access to the data, to clean the data, to organize the data, to be able to integrate into specific workflows, to do it in a compliant way, and to check off all the boxes. It's not SOC 2; it's HITRUST. It's all the cybersecurity stuff.

It's being able to know that behavioral health information from a psychological encounter, for example, should be treated very differently than data that's coming from an internal medicine primary care physician's encounter. There's just so much to it, and it takes a lot of effort to build a machine that's scalable.

Harry Stebbings

Do you have to have an FDA process to be successful selling to enterprises with AI tools?

Shiv Rao

No, you don't. Not in our case. You've got to get to that zero to one. You've got to get to that first product in all the ways: people in the health systems, in the clinics, listening to the doctors and the nurses, figuring it out, and building a product that fits.

But that's not a forward-deployed motion. That's just figuring out how to build a product that fits. If your first product is something that is everywhere, if you've attacked a workflow that can scale, then you're set.

It's like the classic motion: we picked a first product that we knew was everywhere in healthcare. Practically speaking, every single doctor has to speak to a patient. Great, that's our signal. We're going to attach ourselves to that spoken signal and create value.

What's our first bit of value? It's a note. Got it. Do they hate notes? Yep, they hate notes. We can automate them. Great, we created notes. Now let's go scale notes.

Then it was like, “What's next?” They hate placing those orders. They have to hit all kinds of drop-down menus and figure out what the right order is. Cool, let's do orders.

They hate billing. No doctor went to billing school, accounting school, or revenue cycle school. When I was a corporate VC at a large health system, we used to have these lunch-and-learns as a doctor where we tried to teach doctors about revenue cycle with pizza and PowerPoints. Every single doctor had a thousand-yard stare. Nobody wanted to be there.

So, can we automate that for them? Absolutely. Now we've gotten to this point over the course of a few years where every single clinician has this team of assistants that we're deploying in the background to go do all the jobs. Many of these are jobs that nobody wanted to do in the first place.

Harry Stebbings

I spoke to one of your investors, who we'll remain nameless for this one, and they said, “Amazing products and amazing everything that you said, but if you are to fulfill the enterprise value that you have today and that you will have moving forward, you have to move closer to the flow of money.” Is that fair?

Shiv Rao

I think it's not only fair; it's also what we want to do. When you think about it, in the United States—but really, this is true in many parts of the world—clinicians and doctors aren't compensated for the care that they deliver. They're compensated for the care that they documented that they deliver.

When we first realized that we were going after this spoken signal, and the first thing that we were going to build with it, before, during, and after we captured it, was a note, we knew we were billing. We were creating bills, too.

You've got to take that responsibility very seriously, because the enterprise motion in healthcare is complicated. You have a lot of different stakeholders. You have your end users, but then you have the decision-makers. There's a CMIO, a chief medical information officer. There is a CIO, a chief information officer. And then there is a CFO. They all have a different lens.

Being able to thread the needle and resonate with all 3 is really how you win the day. Being able to recognize from the get-go that these notes are actually going to end up being bills means we need to approach this note-generation architecture, that workflow, and what's now become a much more agent-driven process very deliberately, so that we have the immediate extension afterward into the CFO's world.

Harry Stebbings

How do you compete when Epic does the same product? They're the product that no one likes, but it's so entrenched—so entrenched. How do you compete in that world?

Shiv Rao

We're not competing with Epic.

Harry Stebbings

Do they not have a competitive product to you?

Shiv Rao

They have a product or a feature. They have something out there now that's been out for a beat that helps with notes. But what I was explaining to you earlier is really, really critical. For us, it was never about the note. It was always about the signal—the conversation that we were using as the wedge.

That conversation, that spoken signal, allows us to build into any number of workflows, even beyond notes.

And when you're building notes with, for example, all of the revenue cycle that comes next, you build them differently. And so it's a moment where, kind of like the foundation model company, we don't ever want to be an electronic medical record.

By the way, I grew up with Epic, and I was at a health system that had multiple medical records. I was always the happiest when I was using Epic compared to any others out there. So we build on top of them, but the layer of the stack that we are building is the intelligence layer.

The wedge that we've chosen is the conversation because it's that sacrosanct moment in health care where the actual value is getting exchanged. It's where the doctor and the patient, or the nurse and the patient, are talking about the care plans. Being able to capture those conversations in a way that's not just clinically useful but compliant is a way to build out that layer over time, and you can extend very easily.

Harry Stebbings

I think lessons are often learned from reflecting on what you did that you shouldn't have done. What did you do that, with the benefit of hindsight, you're like, “Mhm, it would have been better to choose an alternative path”?

Shiv Rao

During the pandemic, I think everybody was just figuring it out. I think perhaps we could have doubled down on research and just hibernated for a beat in a research cave.

We started our company 3 months after the Transformer paper, and a lot of the tech that we leveraged at first was fine-tuning BERT models: BERT, BioBERT, Longformer, Pegasus, and T5. We published a paper in 2021 around how you could actually do some of the jobs we do today at scale, but do it with models that predated LLMs.

There's a world where we could have done more R&D, but the decision that we made pretty early on, even before the pandemic, was that the barrier to entry on the doctor side was so high: let's go build for patients. So we built a direct-to-consumer app that would allow anyone of us to ask our doctor, “Hey, can I record?” and capture the conversation and create a summary for themselves.

I remember when we first pitched USV for that seed round, one of our slides had a doctor on one side, a patient on the other, and there was this mobile phone in the middle. We were like, “We can help both.” Both sides need help, both sides want agency, both sides want to own and control the story or have that story, and we can do that. We can serve them with AI.

We started on one side. I think there's a part of me that thinks that we could have perhaps built differently there on the patient side. It's super core to who we are, and we'll get back to that. Actually, we're getting back to the patient side of that slide now again.

But it was a strategic mistake then to build that patient side. I think that, relatively speaking, maybe we could have spent a couple more cycles on R&D as opposed to—I mean, we were really banging our heads against the wall trying to figure out business models that could work. Maybe that's the mistake. It's not actually that we built in that space; I really worked hard to figure out if we had a company there, and we didn't.

Because the companies that you can build on top of just the consumer in health care are often the kind of companies that paint themselves into a corner and can never be trustworthy enough to go enterprise. They're the kind of companies where the business models would require you to take multiple showers every single day because you're selling really private, sensitive information to who knows what entity. We didn't want to be that, but we realized that too late.

I think the pivot that I should have made is probably, okay, we built something really valuable here, but let's not lose sight of where the actual revenues are going to be. Back to your original question, I think I feel very strongly about what the thesis of the company was, but we pivoted a lot—not just on go-to-market, but also on business model.

Harry Stebbings

You said about the kind of business model pivot that I think a lot of people are talking about: “Oh, the rise of consumption-based pricing. This is an incredibly innovative thing.”

Shiv Rao

Yeah.

Harry Stebbings

Which is not. Twilio's been around for a while.

Shiv Rao

But AI-type nerds love that.

Harry Stebbings

And CFOs—you mentioned different stakeholders. CFOs want to see pricing. They want to know that, like, “I've got $10, so I've got 10 bills.” What are your lessons on the pricing mechanism of the future for many of these frontier businesses?

Shiv Rao

Well, it's interesting. I think we're still learning. We started with a keep-it-simple kind of idea, a sensibility: per seat, and enterprise licensing the entire system.

The first big competitor for us was Microsoft. They had bought a company called Nuance for $20-some billion some years ago, and they had a product in our category. We still compete with them in the marketplace. But I think we've established ourselves as a completely different type of company with a completely different kind of offering, and at this point in time, we don't approach them the same way we used to.

Harry Stebbings

So you don't buy bundling as a real threat? I remember—I'm completely forgetting Nabler. Nabler's a competitor of yours, I think.

Shiv Rao

Yeah.

Harry Stebbings

Candidly, I looked at them and I was really concerned that bundling would be a very prominent threat to their ability to dominate the market. Was that a wrong concern of mine?

6. When Doctors Use "Abridge" as a Verb

Shiv Rao

We don't see either of those companies much anymore. I'm not sure if it has anything to do with bundling. I think it has to do with us being able to carve off a category—create a category that I think has resonated with the marketplace.

I was 2 days ago in Atlanta at Emory and was on some panels over there. One of the doctors on the panel used a bridge as a verb. Then another doctor later used it as a verb. I asked one over dinner, “What do you mean when you said that?”

When they described what they mean by that, they mean something that's a lot more than, “Oh, it created a note for me.” It's like, “Oh, it did all these different jobs for me, and it unburdened me and allowed me to just focus on the patient in front of me.” I think that's what's allowed us to win.

Back to your pricing question, I think there's a part of me that thinks that there are a lot of complex models out there, and especially the Microsofts of the world just obfuscate things so much and make things so complicated. We've won so far by, I think, even competitively positioning against that.

But there's a part of me that thinks that we need to continue to take notes here, because I see some companies in other verticals with incredibly complex structures, find that it's working, and wonder if there's something to it.

Harry Stebbings

I always want my main course to be someone else's dessert because I'm going to care much more than they do. You care much more than Microsoft does about this market, by the very nature of the fact that it's all you do.

Any advice to founders listening? We have a lot of companies where it's like, well, they kind of could do, and they kind of do have, a competitive product. Should we just run our own race? Should we be unwaveringly focused on them also? Any advice to them if you're sitting down with them?

Shiv Rao

I mean, you want to compete against them. You obviously want to kill the competition. But the way you can kill the competition is mostly by focusing on your product and keeping in mind what they're doing so that you can competitively position, but also counter-position.

Big companies oftentimes have a lot of soft spots that you can counter-position against, where they just have to watch you.

Harry Stebbings

When you say counter-position in that way, I know because I love Hamilton Helmer's 7 Powers. Can you explain what that means and how you think about using it to win?

Shiv Rao

When you're building in a way where the competitor couldn't build because it would impact their current business, it would hurt them, it really pushes them to think hard and probably prohibits them from directly competing against you.

Harry Stebbings

What could you make a large amount of money on today, but for some reason you do not, and why is that?

Shiv Rao

We don't make any money selling data. We don't because trust is everything in health care. The industry moves at the speed of trust. All the platitudes—it really does. It takes so long to build up.

7. Why Abridge Will Never Sell Its Data

We've been able to build it up, I think, in record time, relatively speaking, in this industry. We've done in 4 years what a lot of companies take 15 to 20 years to be able to do, and that's all thanks to the people inside the company, the relationships that they build, and at the core, the product that we've been able to deliver and the value that we've been able to create.

Harry Stebbings

Can I ask you a question? Is that a moral question for the greater good?

Shiv Rao

Yeah.

Harry Stebbings

What I mean by that is, if you were to create a market for health care data, you would actually be empowering frontier models to create better models for the world to benefit global health care services. Is there not a moral—

Shiv Rao

But how do you do it, though? How do you do it? Who do you partner with to do it? And who's involved?

Harry Stebbings

Obviously, Sam Altman.

Shiv Rao

Duh. But who's a stakeholder? For us, when we build new features that leverage data, we have a refrain in the company, which is: earn the right.

So we always go back to our health system partners, and oftentimes they know about our roadmap in advance. They’ve already blessed it, and we’ve already papered this into the contract: that we can build XYZ with the insights that we get so that we can improve the product or build other adjacent products that create whatever value.

But building that foundation model is, like we talked about before, where we do reach lower into the stack. We do train our own models, and to some extent, these models are the real workhorse for us. So could we build a model that ends up serving that kind of function for the greater good? Absolutely. We would just want to do that with everybody’s eyes wide open, all of our partners saying, “Let’s go. We want that too.”

Harry Stebbings

In this industry, it works. People kind of get it. You can have access to Option A—frontier models before anyone else for 6 months—or Option B, a talent pool of the best researchers and engineers for 6 months. Which would you rather?

Shiv Rao

B.

Harry Stebbings

B over A?

Shiv Rao

Yeah, no question about it. No question about it. Because ultimately, it’s always about the people, and if you’ve got incredible people, you’re going to build your own models, your own primitives. And yes, the frontier models you’re going to be able to ride, but that arbitrage, that period of arbitrage, you can—you know, that’s not the be-all and end-all for us.

Harry Stebbings

Is the talent marketplace as hard as everyone suggests it is?

Shiv Rao

Yeah, absolutely. I think we have the benefit of being able to release a good amount of oxytocin for candidates. We’re a purpose company. We’re a meaning company. You can be post-money but still want to put your best years into this company because we’re at scale and we’re trying to do 3 things.

We’re trying to save time for the people who matter most in health care. We’re trying to save money for the system—we need deflationary economics in health care. We talked about the portion of GDP it represents, but we also want to save lives. You talked about the greater good. We want to help clinicians feel like superheroes.

8. AI Won't Replace Doctors

We have a feature, for example, that we just released, where a doctor goes in and we give them cues on what questions they should ask or diagnoses they should consider. And we’re doing it in a totally differentiated way, unlike a lot of clinical decision support products out there. We’re using context; we’re engineering the context about who this patient is. That context comes from all those different systems of record and from the conversation.

Harry Stebbings

With the greatest respect, dude, if you’re giving them prompts for questions and diagnoses, for goodness’ sake, just replace them.

Shiv Rao

It depends. Every clinician—if a bot can do their job, I think almost every clinician will say, “What are you talking about?” There was an article in the Journal of General Internal Medicine that was published a few years ago that suggested doctors need 30 hours a day to get all of their work done.

So, understandably, we’ve looked at the paper, we’ve parsed all the different tasks that lead to 30 hours, and we’re picking them off. We’re creating these teams of assistants, of agents, that can go and get all the pre-charting done for the doctor before they walk in, tell them what questions to ask, help them create their note, do their billing—all the other things that we can do, we absolutely will try to do.

At the same time, though, I think, to your question, there’s high-frequency, low-stakes care that absolutely needs to be automated. Right now in Utah, for example, there’s a bunch of controversy around companies being able to—or starting to—automate medication refills. Can AI automate prescription refills for a patient? That’s, I think, as low-stakes and high-frequency as it gets.

But it’s those types of workflows that will progressively get automated until we get to some approximation of maybe the most boring variant of primary care that nobody wants to practice. But as soon as you get into the hard stuff—you talked about taste and judgment earlier—that’s where I think things get very real. And that’s where, invoke Jevons paradox or whatever, but we’re in for a tsunami of health care needs, and the system is not prepared to deliver it.

I unwaveringly don’t worry about, like, “Oh, we’re going to fire doctors because we don’t need them.”

Harry Stebbings

Yeah, yeah, yeah. You know, there are people out there who think that. Have you ever been to, like, an emergency room?

Shiv Rao

There are people out there.

Harry Stebbings

There are people out there.

Shiv Rao

Yeah, yeah, I know. They need to go to an emergency room on Friday night.

Goldman Sachs recently—I was reading an article by Goldman Sachs. Weirdly, I have bedtime reading that I queue up every night. I need to get out more. I used to party; now I have bedtime reading where I save articles during the day, and I was reading one last night.

It said that they estimate agents, within a 5-year period, will increase token consumption by 24x.

Harry Stebbings

Very specific. 24x. 25 would be exaggerated. Do you think that is overplayed, underplayed, or about right?

Shiv Rao

I don’t know about the specific number, but directionally, I think so. I think that you just can’t get enough of this technology once you start to use it. Even as inference costs come down, you just end up using more and more and more of it.

I think for certain jobs, especially the jobs that you’ll never be good enough on, those are bottomless pits. But I think, now more than ever before, even reflected in the way people are organizing their companies these days, you can cover a lot more surface area. So you just do that much more.

9. The Hardest Role to Hire: High-Judgment Executives

Harry Stebbings

What’s the hardest role to hire for today?

Shiv Rao

I just think getting really amazing executives—really high-judgment executives—into a company like ours is critical. And part of it is because this moment is pretty unprecedented.

I think being able to have folks who can serve as guides, who have a lot of patterns that they can match against—priors—but who can also go against those priors and reflect upon them, is important. The time between a decision and an action is getting compressed.

Obviously, product development—we do things differently now than we did a year ago, even. Every layer of the company is getting compressed. And I think getting high-judgment people—incredible executives—is still a thing that I’m working on.

Harry Stebbings

How do you think about that? Brian Chesky obviously speaks about founder mode and the importance of getting as close to the bare metal as possible. How do you think about that, on the one hand, with the need for exact pattern-matching playbooks that you mentioned there?

Shiv Rao

I don’t think they go together. I think founder mode, to me, is about tours of duty. Depending on what’s on fire inside of the company, or what’s the most important thing and what you’re best at, you just go crush it. You just have to go kill whatever that challenge is.

10. What Jensen Huang Told Shiv at Midnight

It doesn’t mean getting into the details and micromanaging everybody in the company. It means doing the tour of duty when it makes sense.

And NVIDIA is one of our investors, and Jensen told me this. He once called me at midnight, and it was on his way home—a cold call—and I knew it was him. I picked it up, and it was awesome.

Harry Stebbings

Were you in bed?

Shiv Rao

I was. And I got up.

Harry Stebbings

All right, it’s, “Hi, darling. It’s Jensen.”

Yeah, exactly. You’re going to apply this even to your wife, aren’t you?

Shiv Rao

Yeah, that’s actually what I said. “My buddy Jensen.” That’s actually what I said. She was like, “Whatever.” I was like, “Hello, Jensen.” I’m whispering to him.

Harry Stebbings

What did he say?

Shiv Rao

He was calling me back because of an email I had sent him. I’d sent him a 2-line email earlier in the day, so his SLAs are insane. He responds that fast; it’s really wild.

He wanted to unpack a challenge that I was experiencing, but one of the lessons for me that day was just: your job is to fall in love with whatever the job is. And that is something you can do. You can convince yourself.

You have to find a way to bend your DNA, to CRISPR new DNA in that loves living on airplanes. I live on airplanes now, and I think if you caught me 5 years ago, I’d have been like, “Never. We’re not going to do that. We’re going to find other ways to grow and scale.”

But this is what the job requires, and I enjoy it.

Harry Stebbings

What have you not CRISPRed your way into yet that you need to?

Shiv Rao

I think, yeah, it’s a good question. I’d say people’s strengths are their weaknesses, too. There’s a shadow to what you’re very, very good at.

I think I have HR reporting to me. That kind of stuff is not the kind of stuff where I think I’m operating at the top of my license. That comes to mind.

Harry Stebbings

I said the other day that no great CEO ever liked HR.

Shiv Rao

Yeah, I’ve never gotten so much hate back. I mean, it was just surprising. I thought it was wild. We all joke about Karen in HR, you know? But everyone’s like, “You’re a dick.”

Harry Stebbings

I’m surprised by that.

Shiv Rao

Oh my God. Oh, savage. And then I said, “Listen, if you want to work from home on Friday, that’s okay. But just accept that, bluntly, you’re not going to work as hard. You’re going to go to Pilates at 10:00, and working from home Fridays is effectively 4 days a week.”

Harry Stebbings

Are you 5 days a week in the office?

Shiv Rao

We’re 3 days in the office.

Harry Stebbings

Why?

Shiv Rao

We just have certain folks who have to travel long distances in order to get into the office.

And so, we're still adjusting what exactly the sweet spot is.

Harry Stebbings

Is that okay? Would you not rather have 5 days a week?

Shiv Rao

I love being around the people. I love being at the whiteboards. But I'm also living on airplanes. I also just know how much, especially EPD, benefits everybody in the company. At this moment, things are moving so quickly that the more time you have in person, the better. There's no question about it. We're not a top-down 996 company, obviously, but we don't have that kind of culture.

Harry Stebbings

I think there are a lot of people who are token-maxing, and it's Goodhart's law, you know? Do you worry that, at your size, you might meander into slowness, process, and policy? How many people do you have?

Shiv Rao

450.

Harry Stebbings

450. Yeah. Is it possible to only have A players at 450?

Shiv Rao

Honestly, it's a great question. I think so.

Harry Stebbings

You do?

Shiv Rao

Yeah, I think so. I think it takes everybody in the company continually looking at what their bar is and reassessing.

Harry Stebbings

When did you stop meeting everyone who joined?

Shiv Rao

It's been a long time.

Harry Stebbings

It's been a long time. At 100?

Shiv Rao

Even probably a little bit before that, honestly. It was around then.

Harry Stebbings

Is that right? How would you advise other founders on how to think about that?

Shiv Rao

I don't think there's any playbook, honestly. I think it depends on who's around you, too—what executives around you can do a lot of that work as well. I think culture is critical, and no matter what the founder CEO thinks, they play a huge part in setting it.

There are a lot of different ways you can convey what you believe is going to be the culture that's going to help you win and achieve your mission. Meeting every single candidate isn't necessarily, in my estimation, one of them. If you really trust your hiring managers and you really trust your executives as carriers of that culture, you can work it out.

Harry Stebbings

What is the most non-obvious but core cultural element that isn't standard? Everyone's like, you want ambitious people, people that care, mission-oriented, all that. I want a weird one. For me, it's called the Titanic rule. I mentioned Celine Dion earlier—we love Titanic here. Great movie. It's 3 hours long. Everyone should be able to go to a cinema with their families. But if you're asked a question on WhatsApp, you need to respond within 3 hours. It drives efficiency and urgency.

Shiv Rao

Yeah. Titanic rule.

Harry Stebbings

Anything that guides your principles that's less obvious, special, or countercultural?

11. Chips on Shoulders Make Chips in Pockets: The Hiring Philosophy

Shiv Rao

You know, Josh Wolfe from Lux—I remember meeting him years ago—and I think he says this a lot: “Chips on shoulders makes chips in pockets.” I think that's a hard thing to be able to assess in a person, but there are just certain people who have insane slope, and that slope is coming from something very, very deep and core to who they are.

They're just on a mission, and you see them and you just want to invest in them. You want stock in them, and you sort of feel it. I don't think it's that you're looking for—I don't know. It's like there's a bunch of VCs out there looking for broken people.

We were talking about psychological assessments and things before we started. Some VCs will do that, and I had one before we took money from one of our investors. But I think it's just looking for a level of fire that's going to translate into not only those SLAs you talked about, but resilience and grind. It's always wartime, and it's a different kind of war now than ever before. Not everybody's a warrior.

Harry Stebbings

Are you a wartime or a peacetime CEO?

Shiv Rao

Oh, come on.

Harry Stebbings

Well, come on. You're a wartime CEO? You can't be.

Shiv Rao

Yeah, there's no other way to be. You're always competing. You're in a market that is moving so fast. Who's a peacetime CEO? Even the Costco CEO, who I think is awesome and undercelebrated—is he a peacetime CEO? Maybe he is. Maybe he's a good peacetime CEO.

Harry Stebbings

If the founder transitions out of the CEO role, I'm out. Do you agree with that?

Shiv Rao

Yeah, I definitely believe in those types of companies. Those are the types of companies I want.

Harry Stebbings

What stage of Abridge's development have you struggled with most?

Shiv Rao

You know, I always think product-market fit is a series of chapters that we always get wrong. It's like, “Oh, I had product-market fit,” and then, boom, you're constantly finding new product-market fits.

Harry Stebbings

What chapter of company development did you find the most challenging to grapple with, and what do you know now?

Shiv Rao

Honestly, the chapter of the company that sucks the most is the one where you don't feel pressure. We have a saying in the company: pressure makes diamonds. When it somehow feels like you're on cruise control, you're on autopilot, that kind of sucks.

I think you want dynamism. If you're not figuring out how to 10x your ambitions, if you're not figuring out how to think outside the box or find new pockets to pull from, new value to create, and you don't feel that pressure for some reason—if you're coasting—I think that doesn't feel good at all.

Harry Stebbings

What was the largest round you've raised?

12. Raising $300M: How to Stop Spending From Getting Loose

Shiv Rao

Our last one was $300 million, about a year ago.

Harry Stebbings

When you raise $300 million, how do you prevent expenses and budgets from becoming too loose? It's a lot of money, and I see it with a lot of companies where suddenly spending just becomes loose—events, travel, hotels, everything. How do you prevent that?

Shiv Rao

You hire really principled finance leaders who can work together with you to unpack what the goals of the company are, and then recognize that against certain goals, you don't want to blink. You raised this capital because it's a blunt instrument that's going to allow you to win. Against certain things, you just don't want to even debate. If you are, you're doing it wrong.

Having the right business-minded folks and finance leaders means that you should probably also have the discipline to know that you didn't need what I just ordered for our New York City office, like some fancy speakers. But sometimes that stuff creates culture, too.

Harry Stebbings

What was the hardest round to raise?

Shiv Rao

The hardest round was a Series A1. You know venture capital; you obviously know it was a weak round. We were in a weak spot because there's a 1 at the end of it. A1 is terrible, and people are like, “Oh my God, what the fuck is this? Obviously, things are tough over there.”

But those first years—we talked about how the consumer-product business model wasn't feeling right, wasn't feeling big enough. We got a handful of no's on that round, for sure.

Harry Stebbings

Does USV not just guarantee your next round? They did the seed and the A.

Shiv Rao

USV was our business model initially. We had other great investors like Bessemer and Pillar, and plenty of others, but we were pre-inflection. We knew it. We could feel it.

Harry Stebbings

What was happening in that A1?

Shiv Rao

We found folks who believed. Whittington Ventures, for example—we did a round at a 2x. Folks believed that it was coming soon. We got it done.

Harry Stebbings

$8 million on $40 million?

Shiv Rao

It was at $100 million.

Harry Stebbings

Oh, wow. Yeah, that's pretty good. Oh, man. With Whittington Ventures?

Shiv Rao

Yeah. They did it alongside USV and Bessemer and some others.

Harry Stebbings

Do you ever worry about becoming the jewel in a VC's portfolio?

Shiv Rao

How so? What does that mean?

Harry Stebbings

When a VC realizes that you're the kingmaker, all the pressure goes on you. If I've got Abridge in my seed fund, you are my multiple fund returner. You're the only one that matters now. My attention, pressure, and focus concentrate on you. It's kind of like the spotlight shining on the one that works.

Shiv Rao

No, I don't think about it at all.

Harry Stebbings

You don't think about it?

Shiv Rao

No. I think we have a job to do. We're doing it. They're part of it.

Harry Stebbings

Do you notice the power transition changing from VC to founder, where suddenly you're invited to the AGM, you're invited to speak at their event, and you're invited to do their reference calls?

Shiv Rao

Yeah, I think in 2023 we did 3 LP meetings. That's when I knew things were going well. I don't think about it.

13. Being a Great CEO and a Great Parent at the Same Time

Harry Stebbings

You have 3 children as well. I'm always contemplating family. I think it's one of the most important things. Do you have any lessons for me on how to be a great CEO and how to be a great parent?

Shiv Rao

I think there are trade-offs and sacrifices, and the folks who say you can have everything are lying. You have to be eyes wide open on what you're giving up. You also have to be eyes wide open on the high-level perspective.

I have a mentor who said, “Just go to sleep at night thinking about PPG: perspective, purpose, and gratitude.” The perspective I have is that this is what powers me. I have to do this work, and I also love my family and they come first, but sometimes there are trade-offs and I can't be at the kid event.

I live on the road. I'm traveling 5 days a week. Basically, I'm in San Francisco Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, and then I'm probably seeing customers. Saturday and Sunday I'm with my wife and kids. I'm missing a lot, but it's just one of those things that you have to come to peace with and recognize, too, that there are times in life—and this is one of those.

Harry Stebbings

Do you know who Luis von Ahn is?

Shiv Rao

Yeah, of course.

Harry Stebbings

Do you remember I interviewed him? I remember in his S-1, he's from Pittsburgh as well.

Shiv Rao

Duolingo was also Union Square Ventures-funded, and I'm sure that had something to do with USV being more comfortable with me, because I certainly didn't have a track record ahead of that seed round. But he has that one line in the S-1 about how the only thing you need to know is that I'm dedicating my life to this. I think, on some level, my family and I are all dedicating a portion of our lives to this. We're all eyes wide open on the sacrifices that we're making.

Harry Stebbings

What are you not willing to miss?

Shiv Rao

For me, I walk a marathon every week with my mother on Saturdays. I'm not willing to miss that. I'll get the super, super-late flight back Friday night. I'll not go—I don't care. I'm not missing Saturday morning.

Harry Stebbings

What's your “I don't care, I'm not missing”?

Shiv Rao

Yeah, Sunday with my dad and my mom. That's a big part of the reason that we're still in Pittsburgh, honestly. Although I tried to convince my 15-year-old daughter to move to San Francisco recently. It didn't work, but I think we're on the fence.

A big part of the reason we're anchored there is aging parents. My dad has heart failure. I get to see them, and I get to bring the kids to them. It's the highlight of their week, and I get to do that every week. I'm happy to live on airplanes to make that happen. That's the thing I'm not willing to give up, and it's an incredible opportunity and privilege that I get to do it.

Harry Stebbings

Final one before we do a quick fire. I think San Francisco is the worst place to start a company because it's so impossible to acquire and retain talent as a startup. Think $5 million in seed funding going up against Abridge's $300 million fund and OpenAI and Anthropic. Do you agree, or am I short-sighted and wrong? There are so many cracked early-stage teams over there.

Shiv Rao

The reason why I don't agree is that this moment is so insane. The amount of people, the amount of ideas, the amount of creativity, and the amount of energy right now that's concentrated in that area is just wild.

We went against the grain when we started. We started with a lot of Carnegie Mellon DNA. We started in Pittsburgh, and we built in Pittsburgh for years. Then, with this AI moment, it just became so clear that we had to move in 2022, 2023-ish.

Harry Stebbings

Should you have moved earlier?

14. Quick-Fire Round

Shiv Rao

No. We did it exactly at the right time. As we were inflecting, we just needed to be in that moment. The amount of ideas that you osmotically absorb by being there, the kind of talent that you have access to, and the kind of mentorship that you have access to—I think it's super important.

Harry Stebbings

I'd love to do a quick fire because I could talk to you all day. What have you changed your mind on in the last 12 months?

Shiv Rao

I've changed my mind on how a company can operate—how it should be built and how flat it can be. Now I'm in this very idealistic mode that we can be a very, very flat company in the near future.

Harry Stebbings

What does that actually mean in reality?

Shiv Rao

Just fewer managers, a lot more ICs, and super ICs taking on that much more. Everybody, with these tools, is able to move in lockstep and be coordinated in a way that was impossible before.

Harry Stebbings

I tweeted the other day that my single best advice to a graduate is to be full-stack. If you're a marketer, be the one who creates the copy, ads, and video.

Shiv Rao

Yeah. Super IC. Totally agree.

Harry Stebbings

What's the kindest thing anyone's ever done for you?

Shiv Rao

I think, because we're talking about venture and raising, one of the most generous things—maybe not kindest, but one of the most generous things, in retrospect—was people betting on me when I had nothing really to show for it.

Harry Stebbings

Is king-making real in terms of an investor brand denoting a winner in a space?

Shiv Rao

It's less the brand; it's more the placebo effect. It's more the psychology. When you feel inevitable, the more you can feel inevitable, the more you will be. When you're able to spend time with folks who you really admire, who've got incredible track records, and they've bet on you, that starts to seep into your psyche.

Harry Stebbings

Do you feel inevitable now?

Shiv Rao

I feel our mission is absolutely inevitable. I think we're in a war to make sure that we're the ones to make it happen. On some time horizon, it's absolutely inevitable: making health care cheaper, better, faster. But we're at war to make sure that we're the ones to do it, and that we do it in the next 2 to 3 years.

Harry Stebbings

You said, “I know Abridge is your mission for life.” You start a new company, and you can only take 1 investor with you. Who do you take with you?

Shiv Rao

If I start a new company right now, I would call Elad—Elad Gil. We'd go big: single GP. All of the wisdom in his head, all that I've learned from him, and his ability to go every stage and be incredibly valuable.

Harry Stebbings

What's your biggest lesson from Elad?

Shiv Rao

There are so many lessons. I always feel somewhat like just a pupil with him. I just want to learn. Recently, we've spent time talking about corp dev and his lessons learned from his days at Twitter: how to do that effectively, how to think about corp dev, and how aggressive you should really be if you decide you're going to do it.

You need to have people fully focused; that needs to be their entire job. You can't split people's brains on it. If you're going to do it, you've got to be binary. I've learned a lot, but there are lessons like that that always come out of him.

Harry Stebbings

Who do you think is the underappreciated CEO today?

Shiv Rao

That's a good question. Honestly, because we talked about that Costco CEO, I think it's that guy. What's his name? Ron Vachris. He's a guy who went from the forklift to the executive office—all the way up. He's a lifer over there. He carries the torch of culture.

He's managed to continue to grow a business that he inherited—or he was already awesome—but they've only had, what, 3 or 4 CEOs? That's one of those businesses that you don't read about enough. I think it's absolutely amazing.

Obviously, I have my idols. I have people like Ali Ghodsi, who I think is an absolute legend in the way he plays his chess and navigates his market. I just try to learn as much from the outside in, but that guy, I think, is pretty awesome too.

Harry Stebbings

Final one for you. When you look at the next 10 years, what are you most excited for?

Shiv Rao

Where I'm focused right now is health care. That's all I live and breathe. That's all I think about. Health care is just an absolutely messed-up market.

You remember that XKCD from years ago—I think it was about Conway's Law: you build what you look like.

Harry Stebbings

Yeah.

Shiv Rao

They had Apple there, and it was concentric circles, like their headquarters. There was Google, which looked like a neural network. There was Facebook, which looked like a graph, maybe. And there was Microsoft, and it looked like silos pointing guns at each other.

That's what health care is in the United States. It's providers and health systems pointing guns at and getting pointed at by insurance companies. Then there's also life sciences companies. Those 3 stakeholders, in some way, shape, or form, are misaligned. They're not only misaligned with each other; they're misaligned with the people who matter most: the patient, the person.

The opportunity that we've got right now with AI is not to deploy the latest model and make science fiction happen in a clinic. It's to change the business model. This technology is going to do it. It's doing it right now.

We're going to see that on both ends of the spectrum. We're going to see, to your point earlier, a lot of AI doctors and a lot of automation of high-frequency, low-stakes workflows. But then, on that enterprise, that health care system, when you get really sick, you're still going to want to see an expert.

We're going to see new models that actually align folks and incent prevention. Prevention meaning care, and not health care—not sick care. I think that's what I'm most obsessed with right now, and I don't think it's even a 10-year horizon. I think we'll start to see the beginnings of that in the next 3 to 5 years.

Harry Stebbings

Dude, listen, this has been such a joy to do. Thank you so much for doing it in person. It makes it so much more special, and for putting up with my meandering around.

Shiv Rao

No, it was amazing. Thank you, Harry. It's a privilege.

The Five Year Desert to Product Market Fit & a $5.3BN Valuation with Shiv Rao, Founder @ Abridge | BidClub