Tommy × AccelXR

Chinese labs are stabilizing multi-trillion-parameter MoE training and open-sourcing recipes that spread GRPO/RLVR variants within months.Open-weight price wars could make tokens an electricity derivative as China adds capacity 6x faster and co-designs weaker chips for cheaper serving.A 2028 Ascend model could be a catalyst, while possible export restrictions preserve bridge-demolition risk.

Harry Stebbings

Kimi and Qwen are accelerating open-weight competition: China-created models already drive half of OpenRouter traffic, while Kimi K3 requires frontier-scale compute.A blanket US ban is “massive overkill,” but data-export concerns could bring tighter restrictions and pressure OpenAI and Anthropic growth within one to two years.OpenRouter’s routing layer is becoming embedded infrastructure, making a sale before commoditization a live strategic question.

Chamath Palihapitiya × Jason Calacanis × David Sacks × David Friedberg

Anthropic’s Fable 5 pairs benchmark leadership with 30-day retention, profiling, and user-specific downgrades, making access an enterprise-governance risk.Restrictions are pushing Ohalo toward local open models, while power costs rose from roughly $4 billion–$5 billion per gigawatt to $100 billion.May CPI at 4.2% and PPI at 6.5%, plus Iran-driven energy risk and disputed Los Angeles ballot patterns, leave macro and institutional trust unresolved.

Chamath Palihapitiya × Jason Calacanis × David Sacks × David Friedberg

Elon’s reported lease of Colossus 1 gives Anthropic more than 220,000 NVIDIA GPUs and 300 MW, turning compute scarcity into hyperscaler revenue while xAI moves to Colossus 2.Anthropic’s rapid ARR growth and hyperscaler demand support the AI infrastructure trade, but OpenAI, Google and xAI are responding; monitor whether enterprise buyers prove measurable ROI within roughly 500 days and whether cyber regulation remains targeted.

Howard Lutnick × Chamath Palihapitiya

Howard Lutnick forecasts U.S.GDP growth in the “fives” and potentially “sixes” if rates fall, tying the outcome to $18 trillion of pledged investment, new construction, tariff revenue, and domestic capacity in strategic industries.His industrial-policy mechanism exchanges market access for financing, reshoring, drug-price concessions, semiconductor capacity, and government equity, while execution risk remains concentrated in unverified forecasts, trade negotiations, and the timing of factory investment.

卫诗婕 × 黄敏达

DeepSeek后，华人AI创业者和资本涌入硅谷，或预示行业接近顶部。2025年1月生效的Outbound Investment Rule把美元资本限制与财务数据纳入“中国企业”认定。Manus搬往新加坡或绕开规则，但中美信任与监管后果仍需监测。

Harry Stebbings × Aatish Nayak

Britain’s startup bottleneck is scarce technical talent and operators: Oxford, Cambridge, and Imperial produce about 500 relevant graduates annually, while the UK raises $3.7 billion in venture versus a population-adjusted $15.4 billion.The proposed remedy is concentrated capital for global champions, potentially including $4 billion of annual British Business Bank commitments, while energy costs, tax-driven departures, and weak scaling remain risks to the 10-year bull case.

Harry Stebbings × Tom Hulme × Stan Boland

The UK raised $3.7B in venture capital versus $15.4B population-adjusted, a roughly $12B annual gap Harry attributes to too few founders.Stan Boland argues capital can create ambition, proposing a 10x British Business Bank fund-of-funds focused on potential global #1s.Execution hinges on talent retention, energy costs, and shifting value from foundation models toward applications and Chinese hardware.

Bill Gurley × Brad Gerstner

Jensen raised NVIDIA’s AI data-center TAM to $1 trillion annually by 2028, while Bill warned that slower pre-training and customer depreciation cycles challenge the bullish narrative.April 2 tariffs and the Biden diffusion rule remain the major catalysts, with export controls already strengthening Huawei and China’s vertically integrated chip supply chain; AI unit economics could bring broader resets.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy × Marc Andreessen

DeepSeek R1 makes frontier reasoning open, self-hostable, and roughly 30X cheaper, pressuring proprietary labs and NVIDIA while potentially expanding demand through Jevons Paradox.The shift intensifies U.S.–China competition over open technology infrastructure, with export controls, copyright, supply-chain dependence, and autonomous weapons creating catalysts and unresolved geopolitical risks.